Allman Brothers

 This is duane allman Allman brothers stuff. What could have been if he had not died from his motorcycle accident.

Two live songs show their potential greatness in playing the blues.

First Mountain Jam

Next a blues classic, Stormy Monday

Around the Traps 30/8/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• institutional economics on in-defence-of-hoomers
• Rolf Gerritsen on nt-election-the-country-liberals-claim-a-landslide-victory-in-a-contest-decided-in-suburbia
• Emmanuel Josserand and Martijn Boersma on australians-now-have-the-right-to-disconnect-but-how-workplaces-react-will-be-crucial
• David Levinson et al on 50-cents-0-cents-1-question-how-much-can-fare-cuts-boost-public-transport-use
• Mark Beeson on the-aukus-submarine-deal-has-been-exposed-as-a-monumental-folly-is-it-time-to-abandon-ship
• Sean Turnell on hostage-diplomacy-fresh-ideas-end-modern-blight
• John Quiggin on gina-rineharts-latest-grab-bag-of-opinions-is-more-proof-billionaires-are-no-smarter-than-the-rest-of-us , the-rba-is-making-confusion-about-inflation-and-the-cost-of-living-even-worse
• Mark the Ballot on federal-polls-quick-update
• Kevin Bonham on not-poll-reset-1-of-2024-lawler-defeated
• Andrew Norton on the-government-will-cap-new-international-students-at-270-000-in-2025-but-this-number-may-not-be-reached
• Peter Martin on stand-by-for-interest-rate-cuts-the-us-is-about-to-start-so-expect-australia-to-follow
• Tony Wood on does-australia-face-a-gas-shortage-no-just-victoria-where-empty-wells-meet-a-lack-of-planning
• Philip Oldfield et al on how-low-can-we-go-to-cut-the-carbon-that-goes-into-buildings-to-net-zero-we-need-radical-change
• croaking cassandra on wholly-inappropriate

OZ Climate

• australian-flow-battery-pioneer-put-into-administration-after-failing-to-find-backers
  
• snowy-buys-extra-boring-machine-to-support-disappointing-florence-as-testing-unearths-more-problems
  
• us-researchers-identify-new-sugar-based-resin-for-easily-recyclable-wind-turbine-blades
  
• solar-saturation-seven-changes-to-the-electricity-market-needed-to-put-consumers-first
  
• queenslands-biggest-battery-to-double-in-size-after-agl-signs-virtual-contract
  
• rooftop-pv-sends-grid-demand-to-new-winter-low-as-big-wind-and-solar-hit-by-record-curtailment
  
• new-solar-wind-and-battery-boosts-reliability-outlook-but-aemo-says-no-room-for-more-delay
  
• south-australia-to-enshrine-100-pct-net-renewable-target-in-law-as-bhp-looks-to-double-smelting-capacity
  
• Andrew King on 40-c-in-august-a-climate-expert-explains-why-australia-is-ridiculously-hot-right-now
• Ove Hoegh-Gulberg on humanity-is-failing-official-report-warns-our-chance-to-save-the-great-barrier-reef-is-fast-closing
• Graham Readfearn on without-new-gas-the-australian-warns-an-energy-crisis-is-nigh-but-is-the-scary-rhetoric-justified
• Alison Reeve on wondering-what-to-make-of-warnings-about-our-electricity-system-the-outlook-is-improving-but-were-not-out-of-the-woods

Northern America

• Sohrab Ahmari on tim-walzs-big-threat-to-the-gop Thanks Nick
• Dylan Scott on medicare-drug-prices-pharma-negotiations-innovation
• noahopinion on whats-up-with-those-revised-job-numbers
• Menzie Chinn on different-counts-of-nfp-gains
• Rachel Cohen on teachers-school-unions-labor-education-students-strikes
• David Dunn on project-2025-what-is-it-and-why-does-trump-say-he-knows-nothing-about-it
• Deidre Clemente on kamalas-kicks-tims-lids-and-the-red-ties-that-bind-trump-and-vance-whats-behind-the-fashion-choices-of-each-candidate
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-title-x-abortion-oklahoma-hhs , georgia-elections-board-maga-stolen-election
• Mary Zeigler on republicans-abortion-ballot-losing-streak-stop-vote
• Angry Bear on special-counsel-jack-smiths-opening-brief-is-due-in-the-eleventh-circuit-this-tuesday
• Bill Haskell on lying-about-economics
• Eric Schliesser on algorithmic-macroprudential-risk-and-a-legal-case-related-to-possible-rent-inflation
• Tyler Cowen on jim-crow-and-black-economic-progress-after-slavery
• Jill Filipovic on why-kamala-harris-triggers-donald-trump
• Peter Wehner on trump-betrays-pro-life-movement
• Rachel Monroe on how-arizonas-maricopa-county-became-the-battleground-for-election-conspiracies
• Joel Eissenberg on how-will-the-trump-and-harris-budgets-affect-the-national-debt
• Amrita Jash on us-shifts-nuclear-focus-counter-china-s-growing-arsenal
• Norman Eissen and Jacob Kovacs-Goodman on supreme-court-help-trump-close-election

Europe

• angry bear on when-does-putin-finally-say-enough-is-enough
• Mainly Macro on transforming-politics-of-immigration
• Joshua Keating on kursk-nuclear-escalation-zelenskyy-putin
• Mick Ryan on the-us-wants-to-avoid-world-war-iii-so-ukraine-has-no-choice-but-attack

Asia

• Syed Haider on why-imran-khan-running-chancellor-university-oxford
• Ian Parmeter on can-israel-and-hezbollah-both-claim-success-after-weekend-strikes-and-what-could-happen-next , lebanon-has-made-survival-an-art-form-after-decades-of-war-and-unrest
• Phyo Oo on in-myanmars-brutal-war-the-military-is-weaponising-sexual-violence-against-women-children-and-lgbtqi-people
• Jenny Bloomfield on right-side-history-taiwan-its-real-estate
• Tim Lindsay and Simon Butt on jokowi-wants-to-build-a-political-dynasty-in-indonesia-a-once-pliant-court-and-angry-public-are-standing-in-the-way
• Mohd Yunus on geopolitical-ripple-effect-asia-s-ageing-population
• Menzie Chinn on brad-setser-on-chinas-true-trade-balance
• Alexandra Colombier on thailands-youngest-ever-prime-minister-a-new-veneer-for-old-power-structures
• Henry Storey on china-puts-squeeze-myanmar-s-tatmadaw

Wonk

• Vincent Ho on constipation-increases-your-risk-of-a-heart-attack-new-study-finds-and-not-just-on-the-toilet
• Ulrege Egede on heaviest-antimatter-observation-yet-will-fine-tune-numbers-for-dark-matter-search
• Tim Harford on gamification-like-fun-but-more-hellish
• the conversable economist on james-tobin-on-finance-and-social-welfare-40-years-ago , disability-weighting , must-optimism-be-naive-thoughts-from-wynton-marsalis-and-his-definition-of-jazz , the-us-decouples-from-china-while-the-eu-tightens-ties , simon-newcomb-on-public-opinions-and-economic-insights
• noahopinion on why-you-should-not-ignore-economists
• Timothy Koskie on french-police-have-arrested-the-founder-of-telegram-what-happens-next-could-change-the-course-of-big-tech
• Tyler Cowen on why-massive-deregulation-is-very-difficult
• Alex Tabarrok on rawls-killed-marx
• Fred Kaplan on war-ukraine-gaza-ceasefire-international-diplomacy-breakdown
• Tyler Cowen on was-the-great-stagnation-originally-a-problem-of-human-capital
• Robert Waldmann on diagnostic-expectations-anchoring-and-actual-expectations
• Chris Bertram on on-joseph-heaths-account-of-the-trajectory-of-analytical-marxism

General

• Daniel Price on watch-a-star-get-destroyed-by-a-supermassive-black-hole-in-the-first-simulation-of-its-kind
• Menzie Chinn on guest contribution: lessons from 85 years of movies on finance

Climate

• Real Climate on the-need-for-pluralism-in-climate-modelling
• skeptical science on fact-brief-cosmic-rays , bold-plan-save-corals
• met office on when-sounding-the-alarm-feels-too-alarming
• Marina Coren on earth-corals-climate-change
• Real Climate on oh-my-oh-miocene
• Richard Meade on what-if-big-oil-championed-and-profited-from-the-green-transition-heres-how-it-could-work

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• heroes-and-villains-the-effects-of-identification-strategies-on-strong-causal-claims-in-france
  
• beyond-junk-science-how-to-go-forward
  
• whats-gonna-happen-between-now-and-november-5
  
• marriage-happiness
  
• piranhas-for-omics
  
• the-statistical-controversy-over-white-rural-rage-the-threat-to-american-democracy-and-a-comment-about-post-publication-review
  
• why-are-we-making-probabilistic-election-forecasts-and-why-dont-we-put-much-total-effort-into-them
  
• Freakometrics on its the start of the insurance manual

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• standards
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Jo Case on best-australian-books-of-the-21st-century-as-chosen-by-50-experts
• stumbling and mumbling on the-unaccountability-machine-a-review
• Scott Monk on book-review/why-the-church-and-politics-arent-polls-apart
• noahopinion on book-review-enders-game

vox wonk

• geography-and-determinants-new-work-united-states
  
• credibility-trust-and-perception-authorities-performance
  
• connector-countries-geoeconomically-fragmented-world
  
• found-translation-why-some-countries-learn-west-and-most-dont
  
• exorbitant-privilege-and-sustainability-us-public-debt
  
• financial-crises-and-global-supply-network-evidence-multinational-enterprises
  
• economic-consequences-us-china-technological-decoupling-illustrative-quantitative
  
• impact-political-connections-firm-outcomes-evidence-germany
  

The CPI was good

 The CPI was released yesterday. It was pretty good. most Federal government measures concerning electricity have yet to affect the CPI. They will in august.

CBA economic research says this  'the number of items in the CPI basket with annual inflation below 2% continued to rise and now outnumbers the number of items with prices growing above the RBA’s inflation target band, which continues to fall.'

Also important measures of core inflation continue to ease.

All in all a pretty good result.

I still think the RBA will cut in november. The economy is slowing as is inflation. Inflation does not need to be in the 2-3 % to cut. The RBA simply have to be confident it will get there!

Please let Ukraine fight Russia as they should

 If betting wasn't a sin I think it would be odds on that one of the reasons why Ukraine invaded Russia and not tell anyone about it is because they wanted to show everybody most of Putin's threats are bunkum.

Ukraine is now pleading they should be able to use some of the weapons given to them ( read missiles) against russia deep into Russian territory. They would be much more circumspect in whare they hold their own missiles for a start. Ukraine might think it fair if they target russian power stations.

At present Ukraine are fighting with one hand tied behind their back. Allow them the capability of beating russia afterall russia invaded them. They started the war. Let them understand the total cost of that wicked decision!

( Some of Putin's useful idiots assert russia only invaded because of NATO expanded membership. NATO  like most treaties is defensive. It could only be enacted against russia if russia invaded another NATO country. nuff said.)

The Myths of Whitlam and Hawke

 I am feeling like I will dispel a few myths today.

Whitlam won in 1972 with a very small swing. Few people realise he was an economic rationalist.

He was both a Rattigan man ( he did change the Tariff board to the IAC afterall) and he was heavily influenced by the Vernon report. One of the best reports ever produced.

his big problem was he won in 1972 not 1969. He faced the oil shock and did not know what to do. He also let sentiment get in the way hen  naming his cabinet.

When Hawke won on 1983 no-one thought he had a brilliant ministry in the making and most did not think he was much of a leader . Caucus simply thought he would win. The economic program was not reforming.

It was their reaction to the problems of the day that made their reputation. Hawke was also helped by Liberal infighting.

a bit of this and a bit of that

 Here is a little bit on a number of topics.

US Politics

wow after the Republican convention most thought the Republicans were a shooin perhaps getting all three 'chambers'. Biden dropping out has dramatically changed everything. Harris still has the wind behind her sails.so much has changed.

Trump looks very old and acts it as well. I still do not understand how an obese man can make insults about another man about his weight and obese people in the crowd applaud

NT election

I remember in the old days Keen Parish who lives in the Territory would invariably get the election wrong while those of us who don't would get it right. A landslide was always on. The ALP went through leaders, they looked hapless and finally they were being hit on the right and left.

Russia/Ukraine

Ukraine has brilliantly invaded part of russia and thus far russia has yet to respond. Part of the reason surely must be Ukraine saying to Western nations they should be able to target places much further into Russia. Would russia send missiles to Ukraine power stations if Ukraine blew theirs up?

Middle East

Israel continues to blow up buildings by alleging Hamas terrorists were in it. They have even alleged there were command centres in them. Aas thus far no evidence as it is rubble and innocent people are killed. And Israel wonders why they are losing support in the world.

My son

He refereed the north West Premier league reserve grade final on saturday and did a fantastic job. I gave up an umpires' conference to watch and glad I did. It is my last season umpiring anyway.

Little Feat

 I admit to liking Little Feat. Why not wonderful keyboards but more importantly both a lead guitarist and slide guitarist.  And I did love Lowell George

Around the Traps 23/8/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on 35m-per-annum-and-this-is-the-sort-of-engagement-we-get , fiscal-and-monetary-policy , bits-and-pieces-3
• Ross Gittins on why-reserve-bank-thinks-its-too-soon-to-be-cutting-interest-rates, rba-worries-too-much-about-expectations-of-further-high-inflation
• Peter Martin on doing-nothing-is-not-an-option-top-economists-back-planning-reform-and-public-housing-as-fixes-for-australias-housing-crisis
• Brendan Cliff on with-more-lawsuits-potentially-looming-should-politicians-be-allowed-to-sue-for-defamation
• Gareth Evans on aukus-is-terrible-for-australian-national-interests-but-were-probably-stuck-with-it
• Mark the Ballot on august-polling-update
• Kate Lyons on the-opposition-says-australias-approach-to-refugees-from-gaza-is-too-generous-who-is-actually-being-let-in
• Llewellyn Hughes on yes-its-difficult-for-governments-to-pick-green-industry-winners-but-its-essential-australia-tries
• Greg Jericho on banking-royal-commission-australia-interest-rates
• Albert Palazzo on aukus-singapore-strategy-redux
• Dennis Muller on david-andersons-resignation-as-abc-managing-director-could-be-a-watershed-moment-for-the-broadcaster
• Helen Dickinson on the-ndis-reform-bill-has-been-passed-will-it-get-things-back-on-track-for-people-with-disability
• Kevin Bonham on unrepresentative-swill-keating-line-way-past-its-use-by-date

OZ Climate

• new-rules-change-game-for-evs-and-home-batteries-but-wont-give-power-to-the-people
  
• rooftop-solar-hits-record-52-pct-share-in-australias-most-coal-dependent-state
  
• bnef-says-2-4-trillion-needed-for-australias-net-zero-target-but-window-to-safe-climate-closing-fast
  
• business-power-batteries-and-solar-could-help-kick-out-coal-with-less-new-transmission-if-price-is-right
  
• sun-cable-plibersek-approves-first-stage-of-worlds-biggest-solar-project
  
• has-the-solid-state-battery-riddle-been-solved-this-start-up-thinks-so
  
• purely-phenomenal-aemo-says-world-is-watching-as-rooftop-pv-leads-surge-to-100pct-renewables
  
• Bruce Mountain on solar-above-batteries-below-heres-how-warehouses-and-shopping-centres-could-produce-25-of-australias-power
• Gabrielle Kuiper on how-timely-shift-water-heating-can-yield-massive-savings

Northern America

• Joel Eissenberg on eliminating-taxes-on-social-security-is-a-bad-idea
• Jarvis DeBerry on kansas-newspaper-getting-justice-illegal-police-raid
• noahopinion on harris-has-the-right-idea-on-housing , the-democrats-embraced-patriotism-afterall , a-data-driven-case-for-productivity-optimism
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-arizona-rnc-republicans-mi-familia-vota , supreme-court-rnc-mi-famila-vota , supreme-court-second-amendment-machine-guns-bruen-broomes
• new deal democrat on how-restrictive-are-real-interest-rates
• Henry Farrell on what-went-wrong-with-the-silicon-valley-right
• Austin Sarat on glynn-simmons-wrongful-incarceration-prison-settlement
• Umair Irfan on permitting-reform-biden-climate-manchin-renewable-energy
• Bob Bauer on supreme-court-arizona-proof-of-citizenship-voting-rights
• Kyle Chayka on how-the-harris-campaign-beat-trump-at-being-online
• newdeal democrat on preliminary-benchmark-revisions-wipe-out-30-of-jobs-growth-in-the-past-16-months
• the conversable economist on a-us-inflation-round-trip
• Brad De Long on truth-telling-about-trumps-tariff
• Jeet Heer on trump-sinister-clown-next-insurrection

Europe

• conspicuous cognition on did-online-misinformation-fuel-the-riots Thanks Nick
• Jack Watling on ukraine-offensive-russia-political-logic-but-high-risk-strategy
• Ian Hill on explaining-ukraine-s-hopes-bold-attack-kursk-how-it-might-backfire-badly
• Mainly Macro on october-budget-1-can-economic-growth-end-austerity
• Jan-Werner Muller on make-europe-great-again
• Bill Haskell on this-is-a-no-win-situation
• stumbling and mumbling on the-end-of-modernity

Asia

• Amin Saikal on 3-years-after-the-talibans-return-afghanistan-is-a-broken-country-swarming-with-terrorists-again
• Ahmad Umar on prabowo-puts-i-foreign-policy
• Tang Hui on race-be-japan-s-next-prime-minister-chances-first-woman-top-job
• Nikola Mikovic on central-asia-s-energy-drive-spurs-regional-integration
• Alldo Januardy and Abigail Limura on indonesia-needs-strong-opposition-can-inspire-hope-look-cool-while-doing-it
• Ellen Ioannes on ceasefire-deal-israel-hamas-gaza-blinken-bridging
• Tareq Baconi on killing-their-way-to-peace-israeli-assassinations
• Pia Dannhauer on southeast-asia-s-great-haze-laggards-leaders
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-playing-defence-prabowo
• Hilman Palaon and Robert Walker on glimpse-indonesia-s-nickel-policy

Wonk

• Tim Harford on  ai-has-all-the-answers-even-the-wrong-ones
  
• the conversable economist on economic-sanctions-on-russia-ineffective-or-insufficient , telephone-operators-the-elimination-of-a-job , maya-angelou-self-editing-and-being-edited
• Donald Rothwell on palestine-has-been-recognised-by-more-than-140-nations-but-not-yet-australia-so-what-exactly-defines-a-state
• Mick Ryan on surprise-modern-war
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-exchange-rate-models-are-better-than-you-think-and-why-they-didnt-work-in-the-old-days

General

• Konstanine Panegyres on 4-things-ancient-greeks-and-romans-got-right-about-mental-health
• Christopher Mallan on a-city-at-the-crossroads-how-gaza-became-one-of-the-great-intellectual-hubs-of-the-roman-empire

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-correlate
• Joel Eissenberg on the-totally-predictable-economics-of-climate-change
• Benji Jones on bonaire-coral-reef-caribbean-climate-change
• James Dyke et al on the-overshoot-myth-you-cant-keep-burning-fossil-fuels-and-expect-scientists-of-the-future-to-get-us-back-to-1-5-c
• Brian Stone on ancient-rome-had-ways-to-counter-the-urban-heat-island-effect-how-historys-lessons-apply-to-cities-today
• David Appell on global-temperature-vs-change-in-co2

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• gist-now-with-local-step-size-adaptation-for-nuts
  
• zombie-ideas
  
• the-jama-effect
  
• when-is-it-appropriate-to-give-a-one-sided-perspective-implicit-association-test-example
  
• which-books-papers-and-blogs-are-in-the-bayesian-canon
  
• alphabetical-order-of-surnames-may-affect-grading
  
• abortion-crime-controversy-update
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Andrew Gelman on the-secret-life-of-john-le-carre , the-stadium-by-frank-guridy
• Tyler Cowen on vertigo , ukraine-the-forging-of-a-nation, the-new-elizondo-book
• Jo Case on best-australian-books-of-the-21st-century-as-chosen-by-50-experts

Vox Wonk

• economics-exempting-green-vehicles-congestion-pricing
  
• burn-now-or-never-response-fossil-fuel-firms-climate-policy
  
• robots-and-wage-polarisation
  
• inequality-within-countries-falling
  
• trade-effects-industrial-policies-shielding-effect-preferential-agreements
  
• imf-lending-and-private-sector-investment-decisions
  
• geography-and-determinants-new-work-united-states
  

and now for something completely different.

 When I first started writing I had no time to do it but I still did it and got it done.

Now I have much more time I struggle at times on what to write about. Why I ask myself

Perhaps creativity needs the pressure of time or lack of it.

There are no woeful Sinclair Davidson pieces to easily pick apart.

no-one is supporting expansionary austerity

I might be too melancholic to write creatively.

Other people who are much smarter than I have written about it so ilink their articles

I am not sure but given I am closer to 70 than 60 I am feeling demotivated and paradoxically the Earth looks very very poor to my eyes

US part conventions are boring

 I kinda enjoy watching the late night current affairs shows on both CNN and MSNBC ( the former is way better than the latter EXCEPT for Ari Melber).

I do not get that a party contention is covered to the detriment of everything else. both networks did it with the republican convention and now it is the same with the Democrat convention.

Sorry but i find either boring. Saying your party is the best and the other side is the worst repeatedly is boring!

Peter Dutton is still a grub

 I talked about bringing people from Gaza recently however we must revisit the issue again.

Without going into too much detail we know:

• The way Australasia ascertains whether people are refugees and 'safe' has not changed since the government changed
• The only way people come out of Gaza is through the Rafah crossing and Israel vets everyone who does. guess what they do not allow members of Hamas to pass. If they are silly enough to try Israel goals them!
• Most people coming to Australia have family in Australia
• most but not all are christians
• 70% of applicants have been rejected for now
• no-one is coming out of the rafah crossing at present

LNP members are now saying polls show 70% of palestinians support Hamas actions on October 7. Good luck in getting a random sample in Gaza. Related to this furphy is saying the people are a national security threat. two problems with this. Firstly people who wish to fight Israel actually join Hamas. They do not simply give rhetorical support as the ASIO head says. Secondly Hamas is not an international organisation. They want to kill Israelis in Israel because they believe it is THEIR territory. Killing jews outside of Israel simply does not cut the mustard which is why we rarely hear of such things.

Scaring people over this issue is simply disgraceful

sanctions on russia

 A good short article of whether sanctions on russia work or not from the conversable economist.

Around the Traps 16/8/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Menadue on americas-war-machine-unless-australia-acquires-nuclear-weapons-why-acquire-aukus-subs Thanks Brad Nick
• Ross Gittins on we-should-stop-using-blunt-instrument-to-manage-economy , misbehaviour-thrives-in-our-age-of-capitalism-without-capitalists
• Institutional Economics on terry-mccranns-trip-down-the-section11-time tunnel
• Peter Mares on parents-are-waiting-more-than-30-years-for-an-australian-visa-the-new-home-affairs-minister-needs-to-act
• Nelson Ma et al on earnings-announcements-at-an-agm-can-reflect-a-corporate-power-play-not-necessarily-a-companys-true-value
• Nikki Hutley on the-rba-poured-cold-water-on-an-interest-rate-cut-before-christmas-but-its-hawkish-stance-may-make-inflation-even-worse
• Greg Jericho on the-rba-and-its-critics-claim-australias-economy-needs-to-be-slowed-down-but-the-data-shows-both-are-wrong
• Sally Larsen on are-the-latest-naplan-results-really-an-epic-fail
• Dianne Kraal on is-australia-giving-away-its-natural-resources
• Ben Scott on right-sizing-terror-threat
• croaking cassandra on still-a-bad-idea , heading-for-2-5-or-less-by-this-time-next-year
• Ross Scott on big-alcohol-and-tobacco-are-the-aces-of-strategic-marketing-the-gambling-industry-has-adopted-the-playbook
• Samantha Harris on the-gambling-industry-is-pulling-out-all-the-stops-to-prevent-an-ad-ban-but-the-evidence-is-against-it

OZ Climate

• Bill Hare on dug-up-in-australia-burned-around-the-world-exporting-fossil-fuels-undermines-climate-targets
• Ian Wright on urban-growth-is-leading-to-more-intense-droughts-for-most-of-the-worlds-cities-and-sydney-is-a-case-study-for-areas-at-risk
• networks-make-pitch-to-soak-up-solar-share-pv-plug-in-more-evs-and-lower-cost-of-renewable-shift
  
• one-of-australias-oldest-wind-farms-could-nearly-double-capacity-by-repowering-with-bigger-turbines
  
• agl-hails-performance-of-first-big-battery-says-waiting-for-nuclear-would-put-it-out-of-business
  
• faster-fairer-cheaper-regional-network-says-renewables-gap-could-be-filled-quickly-if-the-rules-allowed
  
• solar-farms-can-benefit-nature-and-boost-biodiversity-heres-how
  
• australia-lays-ground-for-reaching-100-pct-renewables-with-new-engineering-roadmap
  
• new-rules-change-game-for-evs-and-home-batteries-but-wont-give-power-to-the-people
  

Northern America

• Andy Craig on elon-musk-x-advertisers-lawsuit-social-media
• angry bear on helping-witnesses-in-trials-by-providing-financial-benefits
• the conversable economist on why-does-building-roads-cost-so-much-in-the-united-states , us-tax-policy-the-coming-storm-in-2025
• renew economy on batteries-step-in-as-coal-plant-trips-amid-heatwave-and-near-record-demand-in-texas
• Nicole Narea on violent-crime-dropping-pandemic-wave-2024
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-first-amendment-donald-trump-thomas-alito-gorsuch
• Brad De Long on trump-as-a-chaos-monkey-fed-independence-edition
• Frank Figluizzi on iran-hacking-trump-campaign-jd-vance
• noahopinion on new-industrialist-roundup-2024 , mass-deportation-would-accomplish-nothing , harris-makes-a-big-mistake-by-embracing
• Abdallah Fayyad on no-tax-on-tips-trump-harris-subminimum-wage
• David Faris on kamala-harris-trump-race-senate-polls-democrats-downballot
• Susan Del Percio on trump-campaign-race-against-kamala-harris-biggest-opponent
• Menzie Chinn on instantaneous-core-inflation-five-measures
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03-in-july
• Joel Eissenberg on california-and-the-war-on-rooftop-solar
• Andrew Freedman on climate-change-extreme-wildfire-season
• Jon Dougherty and Norman Eissen on michael-cohen-fights-donald-trump-supreme-court
• David Frum on trump-campaign-musk-interview
• Shaun Rickman on misjudging-labor
• renew economy on embarrassing-blade-failure-and-the-struggle-for-answers-at-first-offshore-wind-farm-in-us
• Jarvis DeBerry on kansas-newspaper-getting-justice-illegal-police-raid
• Yair Rosenberg on trump-anti-semitism-comments-fox-news
• Adam Estes on utility-power-bill-price-clean-energy

Europe

• Chris Bertram on fascist-violence-and-the-imaginative-failure-of-the-labour-government, green-border
• Mainly Macro on racist-riots-and-conservative-party
• Ian Hill on forgotten-front-south-caucasus-contest
• stumbling and mumbling on government-as-household-if-only
• Mathew Sussex on was-ukraines-incursion-of-russia-a-tactical-stroke-of-genius-it-sent-a-strong-message-to-putin-and-the-west
• Ellen Ioannes on ukraine-russia-incursion-kursk-war-putin-zelenskyy-crimea

Asia

• Shahzad Uddin on bangladesh-how-the-prime-minister-sheikh-hasina-lost-her-grip-on-power
• Khang Vu on family-ties-how-kim-jong-un-going-his-own-way
• Yanitha Louis on binary-trap-after-bangladesh-s-unrest
• Craig Mark on why-did-japans-prime-minister-decide-to-step-down-and-who-might-replace-him
• Denny Roy on no-taiwan-not-prc-real-estate
• Sussanah Patton on thailand-loses-prime-minister
• Menzie Chinn on kursk-2024-update

Wonk

• Rodney Tiffen on how-rupert-murdoch-helped-create-a-monster-the-era-of-trumpism-and-then-lost-control-of-it
• Sean Illing on orwell-1984-animal-farm-orwellian
• noahopinion on some-thoughts-on-the-future-of-the-tech-industry
• Marnie Lloydd on the-geneva-conventions-at-75-do-the-laws-of-war-still-have-a-fighting-chance-in-todays-bloody-world
• Christopher Faulkner on wagner-group-setback-in-mali-challenges-moscows-strategy-in-africa-and-the-regions-faith-in-russian-mercenaries
• Gina Schouten on p-sets-in-philosophy
• Miah Hammond-Errey on byte-sized-diplomacy-will-governments-ever-reign-big-tech
• Tyler Cowen on finally-exchange-rate-models-seem-to-work-pretty-well
• Raina McIntyre on who-has-declared-mpox-a-global-health-emergency-what-happens-next
• John Quiggin on young-men-arent-shifting-right
• Lord Keynes on taxes-drive-money-what-does-this-mean

General

• John Adamson on killer-with-a-cause Thanks Nick
• Steve Vincent on john-lennon-wore-contact-lenses-that-kept-on-pinging-out-then-he-smoked-pot-and-the-rest-is-history
• Mark Grumholz on a-galactic-comet-called-terzan-5-just-illuminated-a-100-year-old-puzzle-about-cosmic-rays
• Anthony Clarke on the-altar-stone-of-stonehenge-came-from-an-unexpectedly-distant-place-new-study-reveals

Climate

• moyhu on giss-july-global-temperature-down-from-june
• skeptical science on climate-making-us-sick

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• data-issues-in-that-paper-that-claims-that-tiktok-and-instagram-have-consumption-spillovers-that-lead-to-negative-utility
  
• my-suggestion-for-the-2028-olympics 
  
• what-can-aspiring-political-moderates-learn-from-the-example-of-nelson-rockefeller
  
• the-river-the-village-and-the-fort-nate-silvers-new-book-on-the-edge
  
• when-is-calibration-enough
  
• sports-media-prestige-media-space-aliens-edition
  
• gist-now-with-local-step-size-adaptation-for-nuts
  
• maximum progress on four-randomized-control-trials-in-economics Thanks Nick
• Kaiser Fung on dead-people-fake-obituaries-and-ad-fraud , how-would-we-know-if-google-engineers-really-improved-traffic-flow-at-intersections

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading-or-not-reading

Vox Wonk

• demand-versus-supply-drivers-post-pandemic-inflation-and-interest-rates
  
• different-household-different-inflation-rate
  
• effects-tobacco-21-laws-tobacco-product-use-comparing-self-reports-and-biomarkers
  
•  inclusive-labour-force-participation-can-reverse-economic-consequences-population
• confronting-low-fertility-rates-and-population-decline
  
• effect-ai-adoption-jobs-evidence-us-commuting-zones
  
• skilled-struggling-brain-waste-dilemma-migrants-europe
  
• media-narratives-racial-equality-how-superman-helped-pave-ground-civil-rights
  
• culture-clash-what-14-million-images-tell-us-about-times-changin
  
• economic-test-protecting-consumers-ai-powered-collusion
  

Should we allow people from Gaza to come to Australiia

 Peter Dutton has said ALL people from Gaza should not be allowed to come to Australia because of national security concerns.  Please note he did not and would not enunciate what those national security concerns were.

We must realise to start with the current government has not changed any vetting any agencies do in this regard thus if there is a problem now there must have been a problem before.

Next is no-one from the Opposition is saying actual militants are coming here.That is people who took action before October7 or on October7 against Israel.

The current cry is no supporters of Hamas should come here again without showing how this would affect national security here. The current head of Asio has said he has no trouble with these kind of people.

The principal reason is although they support Israel getting in their eyes their come uppance that is it. They want to get out of a war zone and live a peaceful life. In this regard it should be recognised Hamas directly recruits from families who have had family members directly killed by Israel. Despite all that the recruiting is quite small so most say no. Even if they agree totally with all Hams's actions few want to sign up to kill Israelis.

In essence if our national security agencies had problems with any they would say so. They have said nyet to amy palestinians so we know they are doing their job. That being so Dutton is doing a Trump. He is lying so people will get scared and because of that gain their votes. He is being a first class grub

is it lying or ignorance or worse

 Menzie Chinn has an interesting article the-great-replacement-theory-comes-to-economics-at-heritage.

He covers the statistical 'missteps the author has made. I would add the author misses completely why those born in america are declining in the workforce.They are retiring!

So is he simply lying, ignorant or worse knows the truth but suppressing it.

Let me now go to a website called hotair,

without evidence they will say pro-palestinian demonstrators are pro-hamas. This is worse as it is positively goebbelsian ( is there such a word?). sometimes they show a photograph but it is a palestinian flag not a hams flag. One has 3 colours the other is simply green.

They employ a simply loathsome individual called David Strom. He doescl ike to call people idiots Trump style. He says he does not like trump but then will say the 2020 election might or might not have had electoral fraud in it (ac alleged by trump). They are weasel words.

He claims to support a two state solution but cannot at present because palestinians just want to kill jews. That is a nice racist trope and completely ignores what has occured in the west bank for example as well as conflating Hams with ALL palestinians in Gaza.

He has said Harris is a communist but failed to produce any evidence she was going to nationalise all in dustry and services. Perhaps he does not know there is NO private sector in communism.

Aghhhh

Trump is bonkers

 Courtesy of Kevin Drum hare are but three examples of Trump's 'intelligence'

First  an incoherent 'press conference where he clearly has no idea of what the question is because the answer  is so muddled I'm sure he doesn't know or understand what he said.

trump-is-running-scared-on-abortion

Second Trump on his almost helicopter crash with Willie Brown who wasn't there

donald-trump-is-hallucinating-things

Finally Trump alleging the crowds at a Harris event was actually all AI generated.

everything-is-crazy

Trump is bonkers. being obese and old simply makes this worse.

Why has everyone forgotten about taxation?

 When you study economics in the very first year you are taught you need to examine both expenditure and TAXATION if you want to see how fiscal policy is operating. ( I will ignore the structural effects just of now.)

The budget got into balance for two years , which is all important for where inflation is now, mainly because of a large increase in taxation. Without this the budget would have been significantly in deficit. The budget marginally reduced its structural deficit.

Thus  overall fiscal policy was marginally helping reduce output and thus helping reduce inflation even though we had cost push not excess deemed inflation.

As I have emphasised a lot previously  it is very hard to tighten fiscal policy once the RBA has started to tighten.

I am again repeating myself but GNE at 1% at an annual rate is not an economy at excess output  indeed the opposite.

Around the Traps 9/8/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Doug Drury on what-is-slot-hoarding-and-is-it-locking-out-regional-airlines-like-rex
• Mick Ryan on what-australia-can-learn-ukraine-s-long-range-strike-weapons
• Kevin Bonham on safe-seats-falling-is-nothing-new
• Andrew Norton on australia-made-9-changes-to-student-migration-rules-over-the-past-year-we-dont-need-international-student-caps-as-well
• Ross Gittins on theres-good-case-for-cutting-interest-rates-ASAP , our-troubled-universities-have-become-the-politicians-playthings
• Helen Dickinson on tiered-ndis-provider-registration-and-a-say-on-supports-are-we-finally-listening-to-people-with-disability
• Michael Clarke on thinking-unthinkable-again
• Phillip Ivanov on australian-ceos-face-wave-geopolitical-risks
• Peter Martin on the-rba-says-dont-expect-interest-rate-cuts-for-6-months-heres-why-it-could-be-sooner
• Greg Jericho on a-reserve-bank-cut-is-on-the-cards-by-the-end-of-the-year-but-the-property-price-nightmare-is-set-to-worsen
• Dennis Muller on kim-williams-is-right-to-criticise-how-the-abc-covers-news-but-theres-a-change-he-needs-to-make-to-fix-it

OZ Climate

• big-renewables-need-big-support-local-energy-hubs-can-help-us-through-the-change
  
• back-on-the-solar-coaster-rooftop-pv-market-rebounds-from-june-lull-to-record-july
  
• wholesale-prices-surge-as-wind-and-solar-output-falls-to-zero-in-south-australia
  
• nsw-confirms-eraring-closure-delay-driven-by-fear-of-pre-election-price-shocks
  
• new-wind-farm-tops-charts-for-best-performance-in-july-queensland-slam-dunks-solar
  
• networks-make-pitch-to-soak-up-solar-share-pv-plug-in-more-evs-and-lower-cost-of-renewable-shift
  
• the-windfall-contract-that-will-underpin-the-cost-of-building-australias-biggest-battery-project
  
• tasmania-fast-tracks-bell-bay-wind-project-as-it-heads-for-federal-review
  
• Michelle Ward et al on more-than-half-of-nsws-forests-and-woodlands-are-gone-as-ongoing-logging-increases-extinction-risks-study-shows
• Graham Readfearn on great-barrier-reef-ocean-temperatures-hottest-record
• Petra Stock on repeating-climate-denial-claims-makes-them-seem-more-credible-australian-led-study-finds
• Ben Henley et al on wake-up-call-to-humanity-research-shows-the-great-barrier-reef-is-the-hottest-its-been-in-400-years
• Samantha Hepburn on huge-gas-fields-under-a-coral-reef-will-a-rejection-on-environmental-grounds-stop-woodsides-browse-project
• Anne Louise-Knight on pumped-hydro-proposals-could-see-taxpayers-financing-mine-rehabilitation

Northern America

• Matt Feeney on will-kamala-have-the-last-laugh Thanks Nick
• Claudia Sahm on sahm-thing-more-on-the-sahm-rule Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on three-episodes-of-the-sahm-rule-triggered
• noahopinion on why-america-fell-behind-in-drones , the-us-economy-is-not-crashing
• new deal democrat on establishment-jobs-survey-weak-and-household-jobs-survey-almost-recessionary , the-democrats-new-sunny-vibes
• Tyler Cowen on what-to-think-about-ranked-choice-voting
• Joel Eissenberg on high-taxes-for-thee-but-not-for-me , what-difference-did-the-covid-vaccine-and-masking-make-in-the-us
• Brad De Long on well-that-escalated-quickly, the-bond-market-thinks-a-possible-return
• Eric Levitz on tim-walz-harris-vp-josh-shapiro
• Jared Mondschein on from-folksy-midwestern-teacher-to-cool-dad-meme-machine-who-is-tim-walz-kamala-harris-vp-running-mate
• Isabelle Zhu-Maguire on looking-back-biden-administration-s-pacific-strategy
• Katy Waldman on weird-is-a-rebuke-to-republican-dominance-politics
• Whizy Kim on elon-musk-x-lawsuit-advertisers-antitrust
• Claudia Sahm on the-sahm-rule-is-warning-of-recession-but-claudia-sahm-isn-t-sold
• Drezner's world on the-panic-of-the-techbros Thanks Brad
• Norman Eissen and Carol Anderson on georgia-election-board-trump-certification

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on england-and-wales-fact-of-the-day
• Mainly Macro on if-labour-is-serious-about-defeating-right-wing-populisn-then-it-needs-to-reform-large-parts-of-the-media
• Richard Fern on riots-in-the-uk-online-propagandists-know-how-to-work-their-audiences-this-is-what-we-are-missing
• Gordon Sander on ready-for-war-in-sweden
• Yuri Gorodnichenko and Ilona Sologoub on how-western-countries-could-benefit-from-ukraine-nato-membership Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on kursk-in-2024

Asia

• Ali Mamouri on iran-has-vowed-harsh-punishment-for-ismail-haniyehs-killing-but-how-likely-is-all-out-war-with-israel
• Henry Storey on marcos-vs-duterte-domestic-politics-meets-grand-strategy
• renew economy on pivotal-moment-wind-and-solar-overtake-coal-in-china-in-historic-first
• Anthony Ware on with-bangladesh-on-a-knifes-edge-trapped-rohingya-refugees-are-forced-to-turn-to-people-smugglers-or-violent-gangs
• Hannah Mcnichol on what-china-s-role-achieving-un-s-2030-sustainable-development-goals
• Intifar Chowdury on young-people-brought-down-bangladeshs-repressive-leader-will-they-now-be-empowered-to-lead-real-change
• David Brewster on bangladesh-s-new-military-led-government-has-tough-job-ahead
• Adam Simpson on myanmars-junta-has-suffered-a-humiliating-military-defeat-could-it-be-a-turning-point-in-the-war
• Adam Simpson on china-s-high-stakes-diplomacy-managing-middle-eastern-turmoil
• Eliot Cohen on israel-iran
• Isaac Chotiner on the-radicalization-of-israels-military
• Aarti Betigeri on bangladesh-economist-turned-saviour
• Fred Kaplan on iran-israel-is-middle-east-about-to-explode
• Zongyuan Liu on chinas-real-economic-crisis Thanks Brad

Wonk

• institutional economics on burgenstock-the-anti-bretton-woods
• Peter Greste on the-us-russia-prisoner-swap-shows-how-journalists-risk-being-used-as-geopolitical-bargaining-chips
• Tamsin Paige and Danielle Ireland-Piper on former-sea-shepherd-captain-paul-watson-arrested-on-a-japanese-warrant-from-2012-what-next
• noahopinion on how-maduro-and-chavez-wrecked-venezuelas-economy , how-tariffs-on-china-could-help-the-world
• the conversable economist on summer-2024-journal-of-economic-perspective-free-online , growth-and-inequality-return-of-the-kuznets-curve , the-growth-and-risks-of-non-financial-banking-institutions , the-creation-of-ride-sharing-and-the-creativity-of-markets
• Mark Pierce on shots-around-world-influence-assassins-international-affairs
• Joshua Keating on miliband-ukraine-gaza-sudan
• Angry Bear on paul-davidson-1930-2024-and-the-founding-of-post-keynesian-economics
• Sheila Dow on Paul Davidson thanks Tyler
• Luke Hartigan on fear-gripped-global-markets-this-week-but-was-it-all-overblown
• Zena Assad on a-us-court-has-ruled-google-is-an-illegal-monopoly-and-the-internet-might-never-be-the-same
• Terry Hackett on dehumanisation-danger
• Brad De Long on note-the-limits-in-adam-smiths-wealth-of-nations
• Ved Shinde on reckoning-empire
• Nicole Narea on harris-trump-fundraising-donations-campaign-2024
• Tim Harford on counting-the-cost-of-my-major-keying-error

General

• Adam Brumm et al on tiny-fossil-arm-bone-sheds-light-on-evolution-of-ancient-indonesian-hobbits

Climate

• David Appell on h-t-volcano-had-slight-cooling-effect
• skeptical science on hottest-days-120k-years
• Moyhu on july-global-surface-templs-up-0001-from-june
• Mohd Yunus on without-money-global-biodiversity-target-just-empty-promise

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• kamala-harris-gets-coveted-xkcd-endorsement
  
• lucy-is-not-a-nickname
  
• adverse-adult-research-outcomes-increased-after-increased-willingness-of-public-health-journals-to-publish-absolute-crap
  
• unsolicited-feedback-on-your-research-from-the-llms-at-large
  
• a-welcome-rant-on-betting-knowledge-belief-and-the-foundations-of-probability
  
• free-book-of-stories-activities
  
• Freakometrics on probabilistic scores of classifiers calibration is not enough

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on tyler-cowen-world-music-playlist-for-rick-rubin

Vox Wonk

• softwares-impact-labours-income-share-new-evidence
  
• why-stock-market-has-risen-so-much
  
• heterogeneity-gender-differences-willingness-guess
  
• enhancing-mothers-employment-quality-through-longer-school-schedules-lessons-chile
  
• green-transition-and-public-finances-balancing-climate-mitigation-and-fiscal
  
• state-gender-inequality-latin-america
  
• speed-firm-response-inflation
  
• impact-road-connectivity-fertility-and-child-health-rural-india
  
• trust-intangible-assets-and-productivity
  
• managing-cope-natural-disasters