US Politics

 The 'Grate Debate'

Well yes Biden was awful BUT the ratings for this debate was the  lowest ever when every pundit said it would be the opposite suggesting the US electorate is not really into this election yet. Also it is important to note that focus groups for both MSNBC and CNN were very anti-Trump. They neither like the constant lies nor the evasion of questions. None of the pundits could take that in.  It is apparent Trump uses the Gish Gallup tactic.  Perhaps David Frum is correct!I am wondering just how much Trump lies has permeated the USA. He was unbelievable in this 'debate'.We have yet to see the abortion debate get up to speed and this will occur as time goes on  as it is on the ballot in quite a few states. 

I should also add inflation was much higher in the midterms and what happened then.

Lastly debates very rarely determine elections.

HERE is Dan Dresner HERE is Stuart Stevens.

The Supreme Court

The Supreme Court has handed down a number of decisions yet not the Presidential immunity case which is dead easy to rule on. They have legalised graft. You can accept gifts AFTER the contract is accepted. They will determine what agencies can regulate. Unworkable Very strange. One judge does not know the difference between laughing gas and smog!!

Time to change the Court as they are out of control

What if Trump wins

There are some like Rachel Maddow who believe a Trump administration would come after her. I agree they would BUT  it would take a long time for Trump lackeys to take the place of seasoned professionals. They are unlikely to be very good at their job at the DOJ. They would still have to have evidence of a crime to get an indictment from a grand jury. Even if they got this it would not be hard to fight such cases where beyond a reasonable doubt is needed.

Around the Traps 28/6/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on yikes-our-tiny-manufacturing-sector , its-time-to-dig-deep , how-and-why-tide-of-globalisation-has-turned
• Mark Kenny on climate-and-energy-have-emerged-as-a-federal-election-flashpoint-but-unless-the-economy-improves-will-voters-be-listening
• Melissa Coade on colleen-taylor-robodebt-truth-teller-says-no-accolade-can-take-away-grief-caused-by-scheme Thanks Nick
• Bernard Keane on peter-dutton-nuclear-power-plan-renewable-energy-culture-war Thanks Nick
• Diane Sivassubraminan and Samuel Wilson on no-nuclear-veto-if-the-coalition-isnt-seeking-community-consent-is-that-really-consultation
• Emily Foley on australians-get-benefits-migration-even-doubters
• Peter Martin on the-good-news-is-the-australian-economy-is-about-to-turn-up-heres-why
• Mathew Ricketson on julian-assange-has-been-in-the-headlines-for-almost-two-decades-heres-why-hes-such-a-significant-public-figure
• Peter Greste on my-own-prison-ordeal-gave-me-a-taste-of-what-assange-may-be-feeling-hes-out-but-the-chilling-effect-on-press-freedom-remains
• Holley Cullen on julian-assange-plea-deal-what-does-it-mean-for-the-wikileaks-founder-and-what-happens-now
• Daniel Flitton on america-s-about-face-assange-allows-albanese-claim-win
• Kevin Bonham on freedom-parties-did-not-cost-one-nation-a-WA-senate-seat
• Issac Gross on australias-inflation-rate-jumps-to-4-putting-an-rba-rate-rise-back-on-the-agenda
• Sam Roggeveen on case-aukus-you-should-read-even-if-not-yet-explanation-we-need
• croaking cassandra on gdp-live-has-limitations , astonishing-indifference-to-a-failed-institution

OZ Climate

• Tony Wood on peter-duttons-nuclear-energy-policy-will-do-nothing-to-ease-australians-hip-pocket-pain-now-or-in-the-future
• Roger Dargaville on how-would-a-switch-to-nuclear-affect-electricity-prices-for-households-and-industry
• Stephen Grenville on gas-difficult-path-net-zero
• Dylan McConnell on coal-free-in-14-years-as-renewables-rush-in-new-blueprint-shows-how-to-green-the-grid-without-nuclear
• Greg Jericho on coalition-nuclear-policy-labor-gas-projects-net-zero
• Camille Mellon and Damien Fordham on devastating-coral-bleaching-will-be-more-common-start-earlier-and-last-longer-unless-we-cut-emissions
• Rosemary Hill and Ian Lowe on nuclear-energy-creates-the-most-dangerous-form-of-radioactive-waste-where-does-peter-dutton-plan-to-put-it
• Peter Hannan on nuclear-energy-report-australia-expensive-decarbonisation-renewables
• Kevin Morrison on no-shortage-solutions-short-term-gas-supply-issues , gas-supply-warning-clouds-reality
• labor-swamped-with-40-gw-of-wind-and-solar-bids-in-first-major-tender
  
• duttons-nuclear-plan-could-cost-up-to-600-billion-deliver-less-than-four-pct-of-grid
  
• peter-dutton-says-nuclear-power-plants-burn-fuel-no-they-dont
  
• nuclear-lobby-concedes-rooftop-solar-will-have-to-make-way-for-reactors
  
• agl-plans-huge-solar-recycling-plant-at-retired-coal-site-that-dutton-wants-for-nuclear
  
• households-to-be-driving-force-of-energy-transition-with-solar-batteries-and-evs
  
• aemo-locks-in-renewables-and-storage-for-decarbonised-grid-as-australia-urged-to-go-even-faster
  
• catastrophic-missile-report-blames-coal-power-plant-explosion-on-safety-breaches
  
• aemo-locks-in-renewables-and-storage-for-decarbonised-grid-as-australia-urged-to-go-even-faster/#google_vignette
  

Northern America

• Institutional Economics on tariffs-or-capital-controls-trump-may-have-both
• Samuel Garrett on dictator-day-one-trump-s-grand-plans-federal-bureaucracy
• Charlie Sykes on trumps-latest-notion-is-both-economically-and-fiscally-illiterate
• Christian Paz on gay-republican-lgbtq-pride-month-history-voter-election-2024
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-john-roberts-clarence-thomas-guns-mess-second-amendment-chaos
• Bill Haskell on moodys-analytics-cooling-inflation-economic-growth-of-2-1-v-an-economic-disaster , lawsuits-alleging-that-oxycontin-sparked-an-opioid-epidemic
• Michael Cohen on senate-democrats-rare-edge-is-also-a-warning-sign-to-joe-biden
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-leaked-abortion-moyle-united-states , supreme-court-murthy-missouri-fifth-circuit-jawboning-first-amendment, supreme-court-snyder-united-states-corruption , supreme-court-sec-jarkesy-roberts-sotomayor-chaos
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-leaked-abortion-draft-amy-coney-barrett-cynicism
• Marlynne Robinson on agreeing-to-our-harm-marilynne-robinson
• noahopinion on yes-of-course-crime-is-way-down
• Glenn Kirschner on judge-cannon-trump-classified-documents-case-problems
• Andrew Prokop on bidens-border-record-trumps-claims-vs-reality
• Alan Morrison on supreme-court-opinions-john-roberts-damages-government
• Shirin Ali and Mark Stern on sec-supreme-court-case-george-jarkesy-elon-musk-mark-cuban
• Ian McDougall on supreme-court-corruption-snyder-v-united-states
• Jeffrey Goldberg on the-unadorned-truth-about-donald-trump

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on europe-sentences-to-ponder
• Robert Hutton on the-conservatives-deserve-to-be-taught-a-lesson Thanks Nick
• Mainly Macro on why-uk-taxes-should-be-higher
• Mainly Macro on uk-election-special
• Romain Fathi on explainer-whats-at-stake-in-frances-election-and-could-it-make-macrons-government-even-weaker

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on some-recent-statistics-on-the-internationalization-of-the-yuan , opinion-an-almost-inverted-yield-curve-is-worrying-china
• Peter Wang and Rahul Mishra on malaysia-pushing-chips-neutrality
• Chietigj Bajpaee on has-india-defanged-quad 
• Ian Parmeter on does-israel-really-want-to-open-a-two-front-war-by-attacking-hezbollah-in-lebanon
• Eric Kramer on changing-israels-self-destructive-course , how-can-getting-food-into-gaza-be-up-for-debate
• Robert Waldmann on what-chinese-invasion-fleet
• Denise Fisher on new-caledonia-france-s-way-or-pacific-way
• Arash Azizi on iranian-2024-election-trump-nuclear-deal
• Aluf Benn on netanyahu-government-coalition-israel-war
• noahopinion on the-age-of-sasea
• Ian Hill on putin-asia-setting-cat-among-pigeons
• Kenneth Roth on crimes-of-war-in-gaza

Wonk

• Tim Harford on the-detours-on-memory-lane
• Jacob Kushner on the-best-plan-to-help-refugees-might-also-be-the-simplest
• Brad De Long on a-return-of-management-cybernetics
• noahopinion on the-triumph-of-electromagnetism-over-thermodynamics
• Marina Zhang on tariffs-data-security-global-collaboration-navigating-geopolitics-electric-vehicles
• the conversable economist on the-birth-of-insurance-markets-14th-century-italian-maritime-trading
• Uneasy Money on my-article-ralph-hawtrey-a-forgotten-pioneer-of-macroeconomics-has-been-published-in-economic-affairs

General

• Daryl Sparkes on hollywood-didnt-know-exactly-what-to-do-with-donald-sutherland-so-they-did-everything-with-him
• Tash Pocavi on walking-can-prevent-low-back-pain-a-new-study-shows
• Caitlin Fox-Harding on the-mystery-of-the-massive-sporting-comeback-whats-the-psychology-of-momentum-in-sports
• Ofer Idels on the-horrifying-human-cost-of-big-sporting-events
• Hannah Devlin on last-woolly-mammoths-arctic-island

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-mwp , at-a-glance-pre1940
• Caturn Cunningham et al on extreme-wildfires-are-on-the-rise-globally-powered-by-the-climate-crisis
• Alex Tabarrok on nuclear-is-not-best-everywhere

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• implicit-assumptions-in-the-tversky-kahneman-example-of-the-blue-and-green-taxicabs
  
• some-fun-basketball-graphs
  
• edward-kennedy-on-the-facebook-instagram-2020-election-experiments
  
• some-solid-criticisms-of-ariely-and-nudge-from-2012
  
• last-weeks-summer-school-on-probabilistic-ai
  
• marquand
  
• its-lumbar-time-wrong-inference-because-of-conditioning-on-a-reasonable-but-in-this-case-false-assumption
  
• Freakometrics on can we diversify from extreme risks , data sharing who benefits from crime
• Kaiser Fung on combining-probabilities

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• humans-and-machines
  
• valuing-the-future
  
• Tyler Cowen on the-eastern-front-a-history-of-the-first-world-war
• Elisa Gabbert on literature-book-lovers-reading-recommendations

Vox Wonk

• affordable-home-ownership-can-lead-stronger-relationships
  
• low-taxed-profit-multinational-companies-does-not-only-exist-low-tax-jurisdictions
  
• how-global-minimum-tax-changes-taxation-multinational-companies
  
• economics-burnout
  
• outsourcing-market-access-services-key-strategy-firms-expanding-abroad
  
• inflations-fiscal-impact-households
  
• new-operating-procedures-bank-england-bonanza-banks
  
• layoffs-retirement-and-post-pandemic-inflation
  
• fiscal-consequences-central-bank-losses
  
• artificial-bugs-enhanced-cybersecurity
  
• china-exports-and-spillover-disinflation-three-scenarios
  
• using-nudges-improve-food-choices
  

Inflation

 The monthly inflation rate was released yesterday. See HERE for an explanation.

There are calls for a rise is rates.

Hold on There are a few things to concentrate on.

The CPI for tradables is falling the problem is non-tradables.

The base effects was the reason the annual rate rose. The monthly rate actually fell just not as much as last year!

GNE is only rising at 1% and it is slowing. 

This could be an outlier. My old ( well not as old as me!) Glenn Stevens got not one but two outliers in terms of quarterly CPIs.

I could be wrong and to be honest thus far I have been we need to wait for the economy to affect the CPI. It is afterall a lagging indicator.

Oh the last two budgets ( well this one ends this month) were slightly contractionary. The government as I have said before are in a bind. The previous government did diddly squat on fiscal consolidation. If you go too hard when rates are rising then you guarantee a recession.

Julian Assange

 Here are a few articles

• julian-assange-has-been-in-the-headlines-for-almost-two-decades-heres-why-hes-such-a-significant-public-figure
  
• my-own-prison-ordeal-gave-me-a-taste-of-what-assange-may-be-feeling-hes-out-but-the-chilling-effect-on-press-freedom-remains
  
• julian-assange-plea-deal-what-does-it-mean-for-the-wikileaks-founder-and-what-happens-now
  

I have little time for Assange however to allege he wasn't a journalist was absurd. Nor could the USA substantiate their allegation he put lives in danger.

He should have been let go a long time ago. Nor should he have to plead guilty to a crime he di not commit.

At least he is coming home.

The Presidential debate

 I am going to be prescient about the forthcoming presidential debate.

A lot of people have said Joe Biden is at a disadvantage because he has faced no debates in winning the nomination and has faced no hostile interviews, This could mean like Obama against Romney in their first debate he performs poorly.

Hang on Trump unlike any other candidate has not participated in any debates either and he hasn't faced any hostile interviewing either.

This means we will have two old men who are quite rusty in the debate.

The great advantage Biden has is Trump has been saying for all time how senile Biden is and how he cannot string two sentences together. Thus Biden has a very low bar to reach. As he has shown in every state of the union speech he easily reaches that bar. ( by the way how is Biden senile yet the criminal mastermind behind a criminal family?)

If you add to that how much Trump has declined cognitively particularly when under pressure then things might just might be interesting.

Around the Traps 21/6/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kevin Bonham on the-draft-boundaries-have-not-put-labor-on-the-edge-of-extinction
• Daniel Flitton on penny-wong-defines-australia-s-national-interests
• Ann Twomey on south-australias-plan-to-ban-political-donations-raises-big-risks-as-well-as-benefits
• Samuel Bashfield on halfway-right-australia-s-approach-indian-ocean
• Kevin Bonham on ralph-babet-was-elected-fair-and-square
• Greg Jericho on rba-interest-rate-cut-inflation-governor-michele-bullock
• Hussein Dia on hybrid-cars-are-having-a-moment-even-though-theyre-dirtier-than-we-think-whats-behind-their-popularity
• John Quiggin on peter-dutton-has-promised-to-solve-our-energy-problems-but-his-nuclear-policy-still-leaves-australians-in-the-dark
• Daniel Flitton on nuclear-subs-nuclear-power-could-nuclear-weapons-be-next

OZ Climate

• agl-eyes-quicker-and-cheaper-pumped-hydro-conversions-to-back-up-wind-and-solar
  
• offshore-wind-zone-shrunk-and-pushed-further-out-to-sea-to-protect-penguins-reefs-and-whales
  
• australias-biggest-solar-farm-has-a-highly-profitable-first-quarter
  
• works-begin-on-second-stage-of-golden-plains-wind-farm-largest-in-southern-hemisphere
  
• duttons-big-nuclear-plan-a-serious-joke-that-is-mad-bad-and-dangerous
  
• australias-first-floating-wind-farm-edges-closer-with-feasibility-licence-awarded-to-2gw-project
  
• Tony Wood on nuclear-energy-wont-stop-cows-from-burping-peter-dutton-needs-a-plan-that-goes-beyond-the-electricity-sector
• wind-and-solar-power-half-the-cost-of-coal-and-gas-one-third-the-cost-of-nuclear-says-lazard
  
• duttons-plan-to-nuke-australias-renewable-energy-transition-explained-in-full
  
• the-same-party-that-legislated-for-offshore-wind-farms-now-wants-to-ban-them-its-nuclear-in-reverse
  
• Asma Aziz on big-batteries-are-solving-a-longstanding-problem-with-solar-power-in-california-can-they-do-the-same-for-australia
• Adam Morton on no-credible-reason-to-expect-cheaper-power-bills-under-peter-duttons-nuclear-energy-plan-experts-say , does-the-coalitions-case-for-nuclear-power-stack-up-we-factcheck-seven-key-claims
• Graeme Readfearn on coalition-credibility-gap-renewables-nuclear-energy-australia
• Adam Morton and Paul Karp on power-bills-could-rise-by-1000-a-year-under-coalition-plan-to-boost-gas-until-nuclear-is-ready-analysts-say
• Ian Lowe on no-costing-no-clear-timelines-no-easy-legal-path-deep-scepticism-over-duttons-nuclear-plan-is-warranted
• Reuben Finighan on is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis
• Ty Christopher and Michelle Voyer on australia-needs-large-scale-energy-production-here-are-3-reasons-why-offshore-wind-is-a-good-fit
• Johanna Bowyer on significant-issues-australian-nuclear-proposal

Northern America

• Institutional economics on dollar-dominance-if-you-can-keep-it
• Alison Nason and Tom Corben on back-to-the-future-us-state-department
• the conversable economist on who-has-been-holding-the-rising-federal-debt-some-snapshots , three-theories-of-the-great-resignation
• calculated risk on by-request-public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-presidents
• Bill Haskell on amicus-presenting-to-judge-aileen-cannon-next-week-in-the-trump-case
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-federal-funds-rate-fomc-projections-policy-rule-prescriptions-and-futures-market-probabilities-from-the-june-2024-meeting
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-thomas-alito-corruption-democrats-dick-durbin , supreme-court-us-rahimi-domestic-abuse-guns-second-amendmen
• Hany Farid on fake-video-joe-biden-g7-italy
• David Graham on trump-campaign-lost-substance
• noahopinion on noam-chomsky-and-the-end-of-america-bad
• Matt Gertz on fox-news-trump-election-2024-disinformation
• Samuel Garrett on dictator-day-one-trump-s-grand-plans-federal-bureaucracy
• Tyler Cowen on do-not-stifle-supply-and-then-subsidize-demand
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-clarence-thomas-guns-extremism-rahimi-bruen

Europe

• Matt Fitzpatrick on why-are-europeans-including-the-young-being-pushed-to-the-far-right
• Mainly Macro on why-is-this-election-a-disaster-for-the-conservatives
• Liam Byrne on tony-blair-sold-the-uk-on-a-vision-for-the-future-can-keir-starmer-do-the-same-to-return-labour-to-power

Asia

• Ved Shinde on bhutan-dispatch-hermit-s-happy-hills
• Arkoprabho Hazra on india-totally-slaying-influencer-diplomacy
• Mohd Yunus on carbon-sinks-southeast-asia-are-trouble
• Fred Kaplan on israel-gaza-war-netanyahu-dissolves-war-cabinet
• Alex Tabarrok on accelerating-indias-development-2
• Peter Leavy on overcoming-deliberate-legal-ambiguity-adopted-china-s-coast-guard
• Huynh Sang et al on how-taiwan-fights-disinformation-war
• noahopinion on chinas-demographics-will-be-fine-through-midcentury
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-gaza-war-policy-klein-segal-interview

Wonk

• Tim Harford on there-is-no-need-to-lose-our-minds-over-the-jevons-paradox
• noahopinion on is-the-west-falling-behind-in-science
• Brad De Long on reading-isaac-asimov-on-dominationist-ethnonationalisn
• the conversable economist on trade-wars-are-easy-to-win-and-income-tax-is-easy-to-eliminate
• essays concerning on trusted-knowledge-in-a-digital-and-fragmented-world-of-work
• Doug Muir on occasional-paper-fungal-banking
• Brody Ford on salesforce-workday-struggle-to-make-money-from-boom-in-ai-demand Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on eswar-prasad-top-dollar , chinn-frankel-and-ito-the-dollar-versus-the-euro-as-international-reserve-currencies

General

• Tyler Cowen on claims-about-taylor-swift
• Dylan Scott on alzheimers-disease-drug-approval-research-retraction
• Beth Hands on many-sports-are-tightening-their-transgender-policies-can-inclusion-co-exist-with-fairness-physical-safety-and-integrity

Climate

• David Appell on 11-extreme-cooling-events-over-holocene
• moyhu on giss-may-global-temperature-down-by-019-frrom-april
• and Then Theres Physics on scenarios-2
• Umair Irfan on heat-wave-wet-bulb-temperature-climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• one-way-you-can-understand-people-is-to-look-at-where-they-prefer-to-see-complexity
  
• myths-of-american-history-from-the-left-right-and-center-also-a-discussion-of-the-why-everything-you-thought-you-knew-was-wrong-genre-of-book
  
• beyond-the-black-box-toward-a-new-paradigm-of-statistics-in-science-my-talk-this-thursday-in-london-also-talks-by-jessica-hullman-and-hadley-wickham
  
• this-well-known-paradox-of-r-squared-is-still-buggin-me-can-you-help-me-out
  
• what
  
• pervasive-randomization-problems-here-with-headline-experiments
  
• this-is-not-an-argument-against-self-citations-its-an-argument-about-how-they-should-be-counted-also-a-fun-formula-that-expresses-the-estimated-linear-regression-coefficient-as-a-weighted-average
  
• noahopinion on how-not-to-be-fooled-by-viral-charts
• Kaiser Fung on combining-probabilities

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• a-depressing-catalogue
  
• Tyler Cowen on the-wrong-stuff-how-the-soviet-space-program-crashed-and-burned , what-ive-been-reading
• Brad De Long on book-review-a-monetary-and-fiscal-history-of-the-US
• Laura Miller on anthony-fauci-trump-book-on-call-covid-hiv

Wonk

• how-firms-adjust-decentralisation
  
• gender-gaps-among-scholars-economics-analysis-across-cohorts
  
• future-tax-challenges-ai-driven-economy
  
• power-sovereign-debt-markets-explaining-uneven-debtor-creditor-landscape-and-its
  
• power-treating-inequality-externality
  
• turning-point-monetary-policy
  
• affordable-home-ownership-can-lead-stronger-relationships
  
• benefits-capital-markets-union-stock-market-investors-view
  

The coalition is mad

 Making nuclear part of Australia's  energy mix is madness.

First here are some comments

• duttons-big-nuclear-plan-a-serious-joke-that-is-mad-bad-and-dangerous
  
• peter-dutton-has-promised-to-solve-our-energy-problems-but-his-nuclear-policy-still-leaves-australians-in-the-dark
  
• does-the-coalitions-case-for-nuclear-power-stack-up-we-factcheck-seven-key-claims
  
• no-credible-reason-to-expect-cheaper-power-bills-under-peter-duttons-nuclear-energy-plan-experts-say
  
• coalition-credibility-gap-renewables-nuclear-energy-australia
  
• power-bills-could-rise-by-1000-a-year-under-coalition-plan-to-boost-gas-until-nuclear-is-ready-analysts-say
  
• no-costing-no-clear-timelines-no-easy-legal-path-deep-scepticism-over-duttons-nuclear-plan-is-warranted
  
• is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis
  
• australian-nuclear-proposal
  

Okay this is crazy. 

First of all you examine the costs and then find sites for proposed plants not the other way round. Just remember any credible examination of nuclear power has it easily the most expensive power.

Next in at least two places Port augusta and Liddell to my knowledge it is land already being used. AGL for example has a battery and a gas fired station. Dutton has said the Federal government will permanently acquire the land. That could take time and money.

Next is who will pay. Will the private sector retailers be forced to use nuclear power or will taxpayers permanently subsidise wholesale prices?

Next is what is going to occur whilst the nuclear plants are being built? Units breaking down in old coal fired power plants is getting worse so as AEMO would tell anyone blackouts are likely if you extend their life

Next is the solar duck curve which means coalfired power station only make money at night. Why would nuclear plants be any different.

Rooftop solar is totally at odds with baseload power but not dispatchable power so are you going to penalise all those households with rooftop solar?

no-one in the private sector wants to touch coal fired power stations because of the cost and time needed to build them. Coal is much much cheaper than nuclear.

Just remember I am only just getting started.

The coalition is mad and I doubt they wil ever release any costing as they would be torn apart.

The Head of the IEA was out here recently. He is a fan of nukes but he said we would be mad to go nukes because we have a comparative advantage in renewables and they are so much cheaper. duh!

Brad De Long worth reading

 A very thoughtful piece by Brad De Long

Tony Wood talks sense

 Tony Wood of Grattan Institute fame has a great article

nuclear-energy-wont-stop-cows-from-burping-peter-dutton-needs-a-plan-that-goes-beyond-the-electricity-sector

As an added bonus

wind-and-solar-power-half-the-cost-of-coal-and-gas-one-third-the-cost-of-nuclear-says-lazard

Daniel Leitch demolished John Kehoe

 I no longer read the AFR but its economics editor had a shocker on energy as David Leitch shows.

I am concerned when an economics editor of a respectable paper believes coal fired power is cheaper than renewables when it is clearly not. I am concerned why he has not thought why no private sector company wants to go within cooee of a coal fired power station. They would be rushing in if they were as cheap as he believes. Does he understand just how many units in coal fired power station drop out all the time making wholly unreliable. Units in new station break down just as in old ones just ask Neville Wran ( using an ouija board of course!)

Crosby Stills Nash and Young

 In this wonderful live version of down by the river you can debate over whether Stills is a better guitarist than Young. He is mainly because he makes it look so easy whereas young makes it look so hard!

The standout in this in the person playing bass. He was still in high school at the time.

Around the Traps 14/6/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Alex Russell on the-a-league-yellow-card-scandal-might-be-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-when-it-comes-to-gambling-related-corruption
• croaking cassandra on the-governor-said-what , foreign-direct-investment-the-governor-and-governments , a-sahm-type-rule-for-nz-i-think-not
• Matt McDonald on peter-duttons-latest-salvo-on-australias-emissions-suggests-our-climate-wars-are-far-from-over
• Ian Wright on there-are-forever-chemicals-in-our-drinking-water-should-standards-change-to-protect-our-health
• Dominic Jones and Natasha Bradshaw on in-some-parts-of-australia-local-roads-are-falling-apart-heres-an-easy-federal-fix
• Peter Layton on deterring-china-s-military-violence-against-australians
• Greg Jericho on australia-inflation-economy-interest-rates-explainer
• Jeff Borland on unemployment-has-dipped-but-dont-be-fooled-the-jobs-market-is-weakening

OZ Climate

• Dylan McConnell on should-we-worry-about-wasting-renewable-energy-heres-why-spilling-excess-power-is-expected-and-efficient
• Peter Martin on the-coalition-wants-to-dump-our-2030-emissions-target-yet-somehow-hit-2050s-behavioural-economics-has-a-name-for-that
• Danielle Udy et al on of-ice-and-fire-what-sea-salt-in-antarctic-snowfall-reveals-about-bushfires-worse-than-the-black-summer
• David Schissel and Dennis Wamstead on nuclear-options-new-research-smrs-raises-questions-over-australias-energy-debate
• duttons-dumping-of-climate-target-would-be-a-disaster-for-power-prices-families-and-business
  
• government-offers-up-to-40000-to-neighbours-who-can-see-new-transmission-lines
  
• nsw-farmers-ink-solar-deal-to-provide-members-with-reliable-affordable-energy
  
• contracting-giant-hit-by-losses-on-australian-renewable-and-transmission-projects
  
• duttons-nuclear-plan-wouldnt-even-meet-net-zero-by-2050-target-report-finds
  
• contracting-giant-hit-by-losses-on-australian-renewable-and-transmission-projects
  
• plunging-solar-module-prices-drive-massive-boom-in-off-grid-renewable-projects
  
• conservatives-and-incumbents-have-predicted-the-end-of-wind-and-solar-for-decades-they-are-still-wrong
  
• why-the-afr-economics-editor-is-wrong-on-gencost-nuclear-and-always-on-power
  

Northern America

• Barbara McQuade on trump-conviction-republican-legal-strategy-prosecute
• Paul Poast on israel-icc-us-biden Thanks Nick
• noahopinion on trump-and-inflation , three-holes-in-the-us-economic-strategy-against-china
• Jared Mondschein on no-matter-who-wins-both-biden-and-trump-can-likely-agree-on-one-thing-doing-less-in-the-middle-east
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-sotomayor-kagan-retire-now, supreme-court-bump-stocks-machine-guns-garland-cargill
• Joel Eissenberg on alexander-vindman-americas-laocoon
• Steve Benen on trumps-weird-rant-boats-batteries-sharks-matters
• Eric Schliesser on on-student-protests-and-academic-freedom
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-02-in-may
• Leo Gugerty on biden-and-trump-may-forget-names-or-personal-details-but-here-is-what-really-matters-in-assessing-whether-theyre-cognitively-up-for-the-job
• Mark Stern on secret-alito-roberts-2024-election-stakes
• Jeet Heer on society/flawed-polls-young-americans-antisemitism , why-billionaires-support-trump
• Anna North on divorce-no-fault-states-marriage-republicans
• Charlie Sykes on trump-poll-republican-voter-ignorance
• Lisa Rubin on manhattan-da-bragg-closing-slides-trump
• Sassan Glasser on happy-seventy-eighth-birthday-mr-ex-president

Europe

• Julien Robin on snap-elections-in-france-a-political-scientist-lays-out-whats-at-stake
• Amelia Hadfield on eu-parliament-election-sees-shaken-centre-hold-but-far-right-now-has-chances-to-show-its-strength
• Ellen Ioannes on european-parliament-elections-macron-afd-national-rally-far-right-fidesz-france
• Mainly Macro on the-macroeconomic-cost-of-conservative-government
• Ed Vulliamy and Pascal Vanier on d-days-forgotten-victims-speak-out-forgotten-blitzes
• Chris Bertram on macrons-gamble-and-the-myth-of-the-republican-barrier

Asia

• Georgia Hammersly and Grace Stanhope on china-s-contributions-are-blind-spot-global-climate-finance
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-benny-gantz-resigns-netanyahu-war-cabinet
• Andrew Selth on myanmar-s-war-within-war-informers-trust-deficit
• Sanjay Pulipaka and Aditya Sinha on india-s-election-done-what-about-running-next-one
• Guyan Prakash on a-life-of-contradictions-b-r-ambedkar
• Masha Gessen on wahat-al-salam-neve-shalom-israel-gaza-october-7th
• Richard McGregor on who-chinese-premier-li-qiang

Wonk

• Brad De Long on a-few-lessons-in-monetary-economics
• Roger Southall on death-of-a-liberation-movement-how-south-africas-anc-became-just-a-regular-political-party-with-some-help-from-jacob-zuma
• Huma Rehman on forgotten-weapon-mass-destruction
• Tim Harford on when-your-smartphone-tries-to-be-too-smart
• noahopinion on decade-of-the-battery
• Nikki-Anne Wilson on whats-the-difference-between-alzheimers-and-dementia
• Menzie Chinn on do-foreign-yield-curves-predict-u-s-recessions-and-gdp-growth
• Marina Zhang on rare-earths-vs-rarer-resources-global-ripples-australia-s-divestment-decision
• the conversable economist on net-present-value-solves-a-landlord-tenant-bargaining-problem-400-years-ago
• Ellen Ioannes on south-africa-apartheid-cyril-ramaphosa-anc-jacob-zuma-mk-elecitons-parliament
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-abortion-pill-ruling-2024-comstock-threat
• Tyler Cowen on milei-update-2

General

• Christina Philippou on the-premier-league-is-tweaking-the-rules-to-keep-things-competitive-and-var-is-staying-too
• Adam Rohrlach and Rodrigo Barquera on the-secrets-of-maya-child-sacrifice-at-chichen-itza-uncovered-using-ancient-dna

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on covid-origins-debate
• angry bear on another-argument-favoring-an-electric-vehicle-over-a-gasoline-vehicle
• moyhu on ghcn-v4-changes
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-runaway
• Ross Andersen on nasa-nisar-mission-glaciers-sea-ice-thwaites

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• he-has-some-questions-about-a-career-in-sports-analytics
  
• pure-craft-is-a-lie-and-other-essays-by-matthew-salesses
  
• questions-and-answers-for-applied-statistics-and-multilevel-modeling
  
• why-so-many
  
• how-would-the-election-turn-out-if-biden-or-trump-were-not-running
  
• arnold-foundation-and-vera-institute-argue-about-a-study-of-the-effectiveness-of-college-education-programs-in-prison
  
• loving-hating-and-sometimes-misinterpreting-conformal-prediction-for-medical-decisions
  
• Freakometrics on from contemplative to predictive modellingfrom contemplative to predictive modelling
• Eran Raviv on ai-models-are-never-biased

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• books-at-a-workshop-2
  
• Tyler Cowen on south-africa-and-its-history

Vox Wonk

• rebalancing-scales-need-tariffs-russian-grain
  
• how-public-policies-can-curb-pandemics-its-important-take-age-composition-account
  
• insufficient-supervisory-board-competence-risk-factor-banks
  
• growing-adoption-rates-ict-have-counterbalanced-productivity-slowdown-advanced
  
• heatwaves-ripple-financial-system
  
• stimulating-growth-ukraine-and-policies-migrants-return
  
• crisis-breeds-innovation-how-2022-energy-crisis-accelerated-green-technology-adoption
  

US Politics

 wow so much to talk about.

First let us talk about the double standards of the US media. If Biden showed he was crackers like THIS in Trump's 'shark' speech we would not hear the end of it. Trump is bonkers and this trend will exacerbate. Bonus link biden-and-trump-may-forget-names-or-personal-details-but-here-is-what-really-matters-in-assessing-whether-theyre-cognitively-up-for-the-job

All those geniuses talking about revenge on democrats if Trump wins plainy have never heard of vindictive prosecution. It would take a long time first to sack all 'disloyal' employees and then replace them with lackeys, In the end the lackeys are more likely to be poor.

The Supreme court again shows up it complete lack of ethics. There is the lack of recuse by both Thomas and Alito on the case of Presidential immunity.

Then there all those benefits they are both getting from wealthy patrons. Thomas gets as much in benefits as he gets paid. Alitto is not as bad but still gets a lot. moreover a Hedge fund manager paid for one and Alito did not recuse himself from his case! As I write the US Senate is debating ethics standards for the Supreme court. Can you believe Republicans are arguing against this!

Another special election yesterday and another large swing to the democrats.

It is all happening

nuclear power again

 We must be in zombie energy territory.

The coalition wants to get into nuclear power.

What are the problems?

• It is very costly, indeed it is easily the most expensive power source even with a price on carbon which is essential
• It takes a lot of time to build some 15 years if you are lucky.
• It provides baseload power meaning like coal fired power it would lose money except at night the solar duck curve anyone
• Baseload power only works when the state owns the whole sector. Under private sector ownership it is dispatchable power that is king. come in renewables ( and gas)
• No-one in the private sector wants to build a nuclear power station. Indeed they do not want to build a coal fired power station. Thus it would be the Federal government building it.
• By the time it comes on steam so to speak renewables will be much much cheaper which together with pumped hydro means it aint needed.
• Rooftop solar will be much greater once it comes on stream and officials will have to choose between nuclear p ower and rooftop solar. Guess where the votes are?
• The government would need to force retailers to take expensive nuclear or pay massive subsidies so prices do not rise.

Now I am only just getting started. Imagine a government stopping renewables and keeping on old coal fired power plants until we have nuclear plants., blackouts anyone?

I simply cannot believe the coalition is fair dinkum about nuclear power

Why was Endeavour better than Inspector Morse

 I want to retreat from reality for a moment. I have been listening to the Allman Brothers over the long weekend and they were a good band but back on topic!

Most people will agree that endeavour was one of the great english crime series. The acting, the writing etc was superb. No-one says this about Inspector Morse yet Endeavour is based on the young Morse.

Why the large discrepancy. Well first of all Endeavour had the advantage of following inspector morse after a significant time period. They could see the faults and improve on them.

This did happen but we have to admit the acting in Endeavour was vastly superior to Inspector Morse. I have written before John Thaw was a poor Morse.He did not appear very educated. In terms of writing there was little in Morse's history in Inspector Morse so the writing of Endeavour was not held back as long as it was consistent with Inspector Morse. Thus Endeavour became very interesting because of Morse's back story.

 Possibly the only weakness is morse is truly a brilliant detective in his younger days but deteriorates to just a good detective in his latter years.

He is much more a loner in the latter series as well.

Perhaps we should admit a later series should always be better than the earlier one. They have the advantage of the time. We already know part of the story. They only have to make it consistent.

This occurred. Perhaps one thing a lot of people missed is morse needed a mentor in his younger years. This was  missed in the earlier series. how could you have a mentor but no-one ever talks about him in the original series was brilliantly written the very last episode of Endeavour.

Back to more serious topics tomorrow!

Only in Australia

 We celebrate the King's birthday today EXCEPT it aint his birthday it is in November.

We celebrate Australia day on January 26 EXCEPT it aint the day Australia became a nation.

Around the Traps 7/6/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Yutin Zhang and Karinna Saxby on australia-can-afford-to-bulk-bill-all-gp-visits-so-why-dont-we
• Ross Gittins on no-ones-sure-whats-happening-in-economy , its-slowing-spin-doctors-spin-that-keeps-me-busy , the-rba-has-squeezed-us-like-lemon-but-it-it-still-not-happy
• John Buchanan on low-paid-wages-up-3-75-with-more-to-come-for-childcare-and-health-professionals
• Phoebe McInerney et al on new-fossils-show-what-australias-giant-prehistoric-thunder-birds-looked-like-and-offer-clues-about-how-they-died-out
• Peter Leavy on clarity-needed-capability-gap
• Daniel Flitton on brakes-australia-s-ambition-india
• Greg Jericho on australia-gdp-figures-recession-fears-rba-spending-too-much
• Gary Edmund and David Hamer on junk-science-is-being-used-in-australian-courtrooms-and-wrongful-convictions-are-at-stake
• John Hawkins on 7-graphs-that-show-economic-growth-near-zero-as-australia-waits-for-a-budget-boost
• Andrew Carr on free-dfat-national-interests-so-it-can-solve-problems
• croaking cassandra on comparing-treasury-and-reserve-bank-forecasts
• Lesley Russell on a-new-community-pharmacy-agreement-starts-next-month-heres-what-you-need-to-know

OZ Climate

• nsw-formally-opens-its-biggest-energy-storage-tender-amid-questions-over-duration
  
• we-havent-been-consulted-coal-town-on-transition-to-renewables-is-not-interested-in-nuclear
  
• eraring-deal-signals-death-of-baseload-power-in-australia-and-duttons-nuclear-fantasy
  
• they-will-be-stranded-energy-chief-lets-fly-at-proposed-grid-access-scheme-for-wind-and-solar
  
• eraring-extension-may-burn-a-big-hole-in-australias-biggest-renewable-energy-tender
  
• Graham Readfearn on the-things-that-youre-liable-to-read-in-the-ipcc-bible-aint-necessarily-so-chris-uhlmann-says-its-a-bold-claim

Northern America

• Gabriel Chin on trump-found-guilty-5-key-aspects-of-the-trial-explained-by-a-law-professor
• Daniel Flitton on joe-biden-should-pardon-donald-trump
• Joshua Keating on war-on-terror-biden-isis-al-qaeda
• noahopinion on a-preview-of-the-next-four-years , how-many-of-our-facts-about-society-are-fake
• the conversable economist on has-worker-pay-kept-up-with-productivity-growth , why-jobs-and-income-dont-reduce-violent-crime
• Andrew Weissman on trump-trial-verdict-witness-transcript
• Lisa Rubin on trump-guilty-verdict-lies
• Dahlia Lithwick on supreme-court-trump-guilty-new-york-rescue
• Brad De Long on the-case-for-the-proposition-that-the-macroeconomic-softlanding-continues
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-nullfy-conviction
• Eyal Press on can-state-supreme-courts-preserve-or-expand-rights
• Jeet Heer on trump-conviction-biden-reboot
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-market-participants-versus-rate-setters-a-forecasting-horse-race
• Andrew Prokop on hunter-biden-trial-political-guns-prosecutors
• very serious on toward-a-less-stupid-supreme-court Thanks Brad
• Drezners world on the-foreign-policy-dangers-of-convicted-felon-donald-trumps-bullshit Thanks Brad

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on funding-public-services-a-bevanite-approach
• mainly macro on what should your vote be aboutwhat should your vote be about
• Fred Kaplan on ukraine-strikes-russia-war-biden-putin-red-line

Asia

• Arshin Adib-moghadamm on iran-who-will-be-the-next-supreme-leader
• Robert Walker and Roland Rajah on southeast-asia-after-shocks-economic-growth-not-we-know-it
• Nicole Narea on gaza-ceasefire-talks-proposal-biden-israel-hamas
• Eric Levitz on israel-gaza-rafah-argument
• Thankom Arun on indian-election-narendra-modi-hasnt-delivered-the-expected-landslide-where-the-bjp-may-have-gone-wrong
• Joshua Keating on india-election-2024-modi-bjp
• Ian Hall on has-the-tide-finally-turned-for-narendra-modi-in-india
• Aarti Betigeri on india-s-proud-history-anti-incumbency-back
• Nicholas Khoo on zelenskyy-put-spotlight-china-s-ukraine-war-problem-defend-ukraine-s-sovereignty-or
• Vidya Krishnan on modi-india-elections-hinduism-ram
• Neve Gordon and Penny Green on israel-universities-the-crackdown
• Sussanna Hannah on unpacking-china-s-propaganda-narratives-against-philippines
• Zack Beauchamp on india-election-results-2024-modi-congress-economy-democracy-liberalism

Wonk

• Institutional Economics on prediction-markets-arent-popular
• Tim Harford on the-lesson-of-loki-trade-less
• Luis Romero on mexico-has-elected-its-first-female-president-claudia-sheinbaum-inherits-a-polarised-violent-country-looking-for-hope
• noahopinion on how-much-can-you-really-learn-about-a-country-when-you-visit-it
• the conversable economist on international-comparisons-with-a-ppp-metric
• Harry Brighouse on engaging-erik-olin-wright-between-class-analysis-and-real-utopias

General

• Dan Dennis on sleeping-on-it-really-does-help-and-four-other-recent-sleep-research-breakthroughs
• Hugo Olierook and Hamed Gamaleldien on fresh-water-and-key-conditions-for-life-appeared-on-earth-half-a-billion-years-earlier-than-we-thought
• Manisha Caleb and Emil Lenc on a-strange-intermittent-radio-signal-from-space-has-astronomers-puzzled

Climate

• Liz Hanna on the-delhi-heatwave-is-testing-the-limits-of-human-endurance-other-hot-countries-should-beware-and-prepare
• David Appell on 53c
• skeptical science on fact-brief-climate-models , at-a-glance-co2-is the-main-driver-of-climate-change
• and Then Theres Physics on gliese-12-b
• Joelle Gergis on an-intergenerational-crime-against-humanity-what-will-it-take-for-political-leaders-to-start-taking-climate-change-seriously
• Yuxin Zhou and Jerry McManus on is-collapse-of-the-atlantic-ocean-circulation-really-imminent-icebergs-history-reveals-some-clues
• Gabriel Rau et al on groundwater-is-heating-up-threatening-life-below-and-above-the-surface
• renew economy on world-on-track-to-triple-renewables-based-on-government-policies-but-not-according-to-climate-pledges
• Joel Eissenberg on atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-and-global-warming , volcanos-vs-anthropogenic-global-warming
• essays concerning on apologists-for-climate-greenwashing\
• David Fickling on india-s-scorching-heat-blights-its-road-to-riches Thanks Brad

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• update-on-the-hat-a-single-shape-that-can-tile-the-plane-aperiodically-but-not-periodically-and-doesnt-require-flipping
  
• nonreplicable-publications-are-cited-more-than-replicable-ones
  
• selection-bias-leads-to-confusion-about-the-relative-stability-of-deterministic-and-stochastic-algorithms
  
• again-on-the-role-of-elite-media-in-spreading-ufos-as-space-aliens-and-other-bad-ideas
  
• more-on-the-oldest-famous-person-ever-just-considering-those-who-lived-to-at-least-104
  
• to-what-extent-is-psychology-different-from-other-fields-regarding-fraud-and-replication-problems
  
• who-is-the-stephen-vincent-benet-of-today
  
• Marc Bellamare on commodity prices and mortalitycommodity prices and mortality

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• homo-numericus
  
• the-public-option
  
• sandwichman on book-proposal-marxs-fetters-and-realm
• Tyler Cowen on can-we-survive-deculturation-olivier-roys-the-crisis-of-culture , the-best-business-books-arent-in-the-management-section

Vox Wonk

• dissecting-firms-market-power-eu-accession-evidence-lithuania
  
• consumer-risk-taking-and-stock-market-investment-insights-using-cess-consumer-finance
  
• large-and-small-firms-covid-19-crisis-and-implications-competition
  
• how-influencer-cartels-manipulate-social-media-fraudulent-behaviour-hidden-plain
  
• development-mortgages-ukraine
  
• workforce-ageing-can-harm-careers-younger-workers
  
• bridging-innovation-gap-ai-and-robotics-drivers-chinas-urban-innovation
  
• eu-miracle-when-75-million-reached-high-income