Jews, Transgender and a bit more

 Perhaps it is because of Easter but in a modest way ( winston Churchill would accurately say I am a modest man with much to be modest about) talk a bit theological.

First Easter is about Jesus dying on the cross thus being punished for all our sins and then being resurrected showing he was without sin. This meant he was both god and man plus he took our punishment being completely innocent.

Some people say Jews can get to heaven however without believing Jesus took their punishment for their sins this is impossible. Indeed they do not even believe in original sin. what they make of Psalm 51 or even Isaiah 6:5 is beyond me.

This then leads on to transgender people. They are unquestionably thumbing their noses at God by saying you got it wrong and I am of a different gender despite all evidence to the contrary. I have said before these people have mental problems and I stand by that. However that does not mean demonising them. Yes there are many problems with transgender people such as should they share the same bathrooms as the sex they say they are or even play sports against the same people etc.Keep the discussion civilised not trumpian.

I should have added there should never ever be any ssneering etc of any people. There are only sinners on god's earth. Most are unrepentant sinners and some are repentant sinners. Repentant sinners were always unrepentant sinners at some stage so a feeling of superiority should never exist. It also shows biblical illiteracy of the highest order

Around the Traps 29/3/24 Good Friday edition

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie.Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on a-government-agency-planning-more-nice-to-haves
• Elizabeth Baldwin on cameron-murrays-terrifically-unfair-answer-to-our-housing-woes-resembles-a-lottery-not-the-serious-reform-we-need
• Kevin Bonham on tasmania-embraces-chaos-2024-election
• Angel Zhong on australias-biggest-chemist-is-merging-with-a-giant-wholesaler-could-we-soon-be-paying-more
• Sebastian Pfaustsch and Riccardo Paolini on if-youve-got-a-dark-roof-youre-spending-almost-700-extra-a-year-to-keep-your-house-cool
• Greg Jericho on the-push-against-wage-rises-has-begun-again-its-an-argument-for-australias-poorest-workers-to-become-poorer
• Jane McAdam and Daniel Ghezelbash on the-consequences-of-the-governments-new-migration-legislation-could-be-dire-for-individuals-and-for-australia
• Ross Gittins on what-way-to-start-easter-plan-to-smash-nest-eggs
• Sam Roggeveen on spiky-questions-remain-for-aukus-proponents Thanks Nick
• Jay Gordon and Kevin Morrison on declining-demand-uncertain-forecasts-raise-questions-over-aemos-latest-gas-supply-warning
• Anne-Louise Knight on hidden-costs-coalmines-unquenchable-thirst
• Brett Hallam and Fiacre Rougieux on could-spending-a-billion-dollars-actually-bring-solar-manufacturing-back-to-australia-its-worth-a-shot

OZ Climate

• nuclear-ranks-last-on-list-of-good-investments-by-big-institutions
  
• most-australians-would-pay-more-for-home-with-solar-and-batteries-not-so-sure-about-ev-chargers
  
• farmers-double-the-value-of-back-paddocks-with-renewable-power-deals
  
• if-were-going-to-electrify-everything-well-need-finance-that-works-for-everyone
  
• no-excuses-australia-urged-to-exit-coal-double-rooftop-solar-by-2030-in-accelerated-push-to-net-zero
  
• australias-rooftop-solar-waste-problem-is-hurtling-towards-1-2-gigawatts-a-year
  
• it-makes-climate-change-worse-carbon-credit-projects-claiming-to-regrow-forests-are-failing
  
• queensland-unveils-renewable-zone-roadmap-to-connect-22gw-of-wind-solar-and-transition-from-coal
  
• unconscionable-eraring-delay-could-cost-150m-a-year-adding-to-massive-origin-windfall-report-says
  
• if-we-properly-priced-death-caused-by-carbon-emissions-we-might-get-to-net-zero-a-lot-quicker
  
• australias-biggest-coal-generator-teams-up-with-sundrive-to-make-solar-at-liddell
• Amandine Dennis-Ryan and Jay gordon on fast-efficient-flexible-electrification-can-cut-energy-bills-and-support-shift-renewables

Northern America

• the conversable economist on some-facts-about-us-rental-housing
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-january-6-insurrection-fischer-united-states-obstruct , supreme-court-mifepristone-fda-alliance-hippocratic-medicine-abortion-pills
• noahopinion on market-rate-housing-will-make-your-city-cheaper
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-outrun-law-new-york-trial-supreme-court
• Jordan Rubin on supreme-court-abortion-pill-case-mifepristone
• Mark Stern and Dahlia Lithwick on mifepristone-supreme-court-alito-national-abortion-ban
• Andrew Weissman on the-supreme-court-is-shaming-itself
• Glenn Kirschner on trump-bond-reduced-hush-money-trial
• Alex Hern on how-can-donald-trumps-lossmaking-truth-social-be-worth-8bn
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-historical-puzzle-of-us-economic-performance-under-democrats-vs-republicans
• Charlie Sykes on baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-conspiracy-theories
• Nitish Pahwa on truth-social-public-trump-finances-explained
• Susan Mathews on stormy-documentary-donald-trump-return-2020-despair
• Zack Beauchamp on ronna-mcdaniel-candace-owens-maga-right-media
• Jeet Heer on donald-trump-debts-corruption

Europe

• Joshua Keating on moscow-crocus-city-hall-theater-terrorist-attack-russia-isis-vladimir-putin-ukraine-war
• Lydia Khalil on islamic-state-terror-attack-moscow-grim-acknowledgement-global-power-status-russia
• Fred Kaplan on isis-k-moscow-putin-crocus-mall-terrorist-attack
• Mainly Macro on why-raising-taxes-substantially-is-critical-for-the-next-Labour-government
• Robert Dover on moscow-attacks-why-the-kremlin-may-have-ignored-any-terrorist-warnings-from-the-cia
• Robert Folz on why-russia-fears-the-emergence-of-tajik-terrorists
• Munira Mustaffa on moscow-attacks-why-putin-was-quick-blame-ukraine
• Mary Harris on russia-shooting-concert-hall-isis-attack-putin

Asia

• Institutional Economics on bank-of-japan-ends-negative-interest-rates
• noahopinion on the-decade-of-the-second-china-shock , secrets-of-japanese-urbanism-part-2
• Rahul Mishra and Peter Wang on philippines-seeks-out-old-friends-new
• Buu Nguyen on silence-remembrance-vietnam-s-shifting-approach-china
• Ellen Ioannes and Nicole Narea on gaza-famine-israel-war-hunger
• Marika Sosnowski on the-un-security-council-has-finally-called-for-a-ceasefire-in-gaza-but-will-it-have-any-effect
• David Brewster on mapping-oceans-new-front-battle-influence-indian-ocean
• Fred Kaplan on why-netanyahu-really-canceled-his-visit-to-washington
• Tang Hui on closer-look-rising-popularity-japan-s-foreign-minister-yoko-kamikawa
• Debalina Ghosal on north-korea-s-new-threat-core-central-striking-means
• Anshel Pfeffer on benjamin-netanyahu-worst-prime-minister-israel-history
• Brad Setser et al on chinas-record-manufacturing-surplus Thanks Brad
• Yanitha Louis on india-what-modi-win-means-relations-malaysia

Wonk

• Dan Davies on the-very-lowest-common-denominator Thanks Brad
• how the world became rich on reflections-on-pox-romana Thanks Brad
• Tim Harford on why-friends-are-always-right-no-matter-their-views
• Greg Barton on why-would-islamic-state-attack-russia-and-what-does-this-mean-for-the-terrorism-threat-globally
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-monetary-policy-reaction-to-geopolitical-risks-some-nonlinear-evidence , guest-contribution-adjusting-the-current-account
• Miriam Ronzoni on capitalism-is-dead-long-live-capital
• the conversable economist on what-should-intro-econ-include
• sandwichman on the-unknown-unknown-marx
• David Tombs on art-depicts-jesus-in-a-loincloth-on-the-cross-the-brutal-truth-is-he-would-have-been-naked
• Ruth Wells and Max Loomes on gangs-kidnappings-murders-why-thousands-of-rohingya-are-desperately-trying-to-escape-refugee-camps-by-boats
• Adam Tooze on tempestuous-seasons Thanks Brad
• AW Ohlheiser on twitter-x-misinformation-baltimore-bridge-collapse
• noahopinion on the-biggest-advantage-of-independent-oped-writers
• Alex Tabarrok on is-there-hope-for-evidence-based-policy

General

• Brian Resnik on total-solar-eclipse-united-state-april-8-path-map-start-time-safety
• Katie Lee and Rachel Neale on summers-over-so-how-much-sun-can-and-should-i-get
• Marcin Glowacki on we-went-looking-for-glowing-interstellar-gas-and-stumbled-on-49-unknown-galaxies
• Colin Caprani on baltimore-bridge-collapse-a-bridge-engineer-explains-what-happened-and-what-needs-to-change
• Alan Frost on ive-captained-ships-into-tight-ports-like-baltimore-and-this-is-how-captains-like-me-work-with-harbor-pilots-to-avoid-deadly-collisions

Climate

• Brad De Long on dealing-with-global-warming-over-the-next-50-years
• this is not cool on whats-the-advantage-of-solar-energy-for-farmers
• ocean acidification on trends-and-drivers-of-co2-parameters-from-2006-to-2021-at-a-time-series-station-in-the-eastern-tropical-atlantic-6s-10w

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• jonathan-bailey-vs-stephen-wolfram
  
• hey-lets-collect-all-the-stupid-things-that-researchers-say-in-order-to-deflect-legitimate-criticism
  
• hey-heres-a-study-where-all-the-preregistered-analyses-yielded-null-results-but-it-was-presented-in-pnas-as-being-wholly-positive
  
• the-contrapositive-of-politics-and-the-english-language-one-reason-writing-is-hard
  
• bayesian-inference-with-informative-priors-is-not-inherently-subjective
  
• the-feel-good-open-science-story-versus-the-preregistration-who-do-you-think-wins
  
• banning-the-use-of-common-sense-in-data-analysis-increases-cases-of-research-failure-evidence-from-sweden
  
• every-time-tyler-cowen-says-median-voter-theorem-still-underrated-hail-anthony-downs-im-gonna-point-him-to-this-paper
  
• the conversable economist on if-not-unemployment-how-to-measure-the-labor-market

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• ai-and-us
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• causal-effects-and-policy-implications-global-supply-chain-disruptions
  
• uncertainty-and-change-survey-evidence-firms-subjective-beliefs
  
• rise-and-fall-paper-money-yuan-china-1260-1368
  
• empowering-adolescents-transform-schools-lessons-behavioural-targeting
  
• worlds-largest-humanitarian-cash-transfer-programme-reduces-child-labour-and
  
• software-automation-and-teleworkers-complements-and-substitutes
  
• mapping-economic-costs-war
  
• understanding-scope-definition-and-impact-wto-e-commerce-moratorium
  
• why-digital-transactions-arent-silver-bullet-tax-compliance-evidence-uruguay
  
• svensson-house-price-overvaluation
  
• growth-south-global-finance-new-bilateral-data-and-stylised-facts
  
• global-sanitary-revolution-historical-perspective
  
• measuring-uncertainty-esg-ratings
  

The Truth social floatation

 There was a flotation of trump technology et al yesterday. HERE is one article on it. Here is Stephanie Ruhle on it as well.

Just a few comments from me.

It is insane it is worth more than either twitter or reddit. It has not made any money as yet and no-one knows when it will which means the PEs make no sense at all. In one sense it does remind of the tech bubble.

Trump is unlikely to sell any shares. It could lead to a selling rout. Only allowing a limited amount of shares is a strategy to keep the share price high. It is unlikely he could get a loan on the basis of the shares as any financial institution would have little idea of how much the shares are actually worth if trump was forced to sell them

Damn I forgot one of the most important things from all this. An US billionaire is a minority shareholder but highly influential. With him in tow the shares remain high. He has 'changed' trump's mind on tik tok and he now has him by the balls here. Not good if you are a presidential candidate

Leave religious schools alone

 We now have the absurd situation of recommendations to the government ( and being the ALP they will probably take it up) that that religious schools essentially cannot apply what they teach in their schools.

I might note it is only the hhomosexual lobby who are blowing hard on this but it applies moreson to heterosexials.

It comes down to this for Christian schools. This is what we believe in. The potential employee or pupil through their parents either agree or disagree.

If you break any of these values and do not 'repent' then you are out. An obvious example here is an act of adultery but the usdual are homosexxuals who had lied at theeir interview now proudly advertising their lifestyle. Note no pupil has ever been asked to leave a school because of this.

It seems the recommendation is that these people should not be 'discriminated' against.

One might ask why they want to work at a school that so heartily disapproves of their lifestyle.

All that will occur is that these schools will take a very diligent look at all applicants to ensure all employees and parents of pupils agree to the values they espouse.

Out on the weekend

 No I am not talking about the Neil Young song from Harvest, the first album I ever bought.

On both Saturday an sunday I was the official scorer for the 4th grade Eppinde that played Warringah as Frank Gray oval. 

Warringah won a tight match and deservedly so. Kevin Davies the Captain is a top bloke and both sides play well but there is only one winner.  Strange as it is I umpired both teams when they met during the rounds when Warringah won as well.

On Saturday night we went as a family to a Bar Italia for a meal. It is BYOG so we took red wine. The pizza we had for an entre' was fantastic and the pastas were equally good.  We even saw a possum that decided to visit up in the ceiling!  AND we got a park on norton street about a 5 minute walk to the restaurant!!

Around the Traps 22/3/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• queensland economy watch on fossil-fuels-to-figure-in-qlds-future-for-decades-to-come Thanks Nick
• Judith Brett on outrage-is-a-key-performance-indicator-for-peter-dutton-the-bad-cop-of-politics-but-what-does-he-value
• Peter Martin on economists-say-australia-shouldnt-try-to-transition-to-net-zero-by-aping-the-mammoth-us-inflation-reduction-act , whatll-happen-when-facebook-stops-paying-for-news-heres-what-happened-when-radio-stopped-paying-for-music
• Nick Garvin on stamp-duty-is-holding-us-back-from-moving-homes-weve-worked-out-how-much
• Stephen Duckett on who-will-look-after-us-in-our-final-years-a-pay-rise-alone-wont-solve-aged-care-workforce-shortages
• Jason Nassios et al on whats-the-best-way-to-ease-rents-and-improve-housing-affordability-we-modelled-4-of-the-governments-biggest-programs
• Michael Clarke on australia-deterrence-dazed-confused
• Deborah Lupton on why-scrapping-the-term-long-covid-would-be-harmful-for-people-with-the-condition
• Greg Jericho on australia-unemployment-rate-february-release-rba-gdp
• Anne Twomey on the-government-is-fighting-a-new-high-court-case-on-immigration-detainees-whats-it-about-and-whats-at-stake
• Daniel Flitton on don-t-be-timid-about-trump-australia-just-roll-punches

OZ Climate

• csiro-defends-gencost-as-coalition-and-murdoch-media-go-nuclear-against-key-institutions
  
• super-cheap-transmission-upgrades-could-double-capacity-and-open-floodgates-for-renewables
  
• prohibitive-australias-biggest-energy-consumers-and-producers-say-no-to-nuclear-but-is-coalition-listening
  
• best-battery-storage-sites-going-quickly-and-some-lucky-landowners-are-cashing-in
  
• rooftop-solar-ducks-would-eat-nuclears-lunch-so-will-coalition-slow-pv-or-pay-to-store-it
  
• new-bifacial-solar-technology-generates-more-power-at-much-reduced-cost
  
• market-operator-explains-why-the-lights-wont-go-out-with-wind-solar-and-storage
  
• electrification-agl-offers-platform-to-help-customers-cost-evs-solar-heat-pumps-batteries-and-cooktops
  
• south-australias-world-leading-renewable-transition-is-attracting-flood-of-new-industry
  
• 
  
• Albert Van Dijk et al on on-a-climate-rollercoaster-how-australias-environment-fared-in-the-worlds-hottest-year
• Adam Morton on australia-nuclear-power-ban-lift-solar-energy-renewables
• Tony Wood on finally-good-news-for-power-bills-energy-regulator-promises-small-savings-for-most-customers-on-the-default-market-offer
• Alan Finkel on heres-why-there-is-no-nuclear-option-for-australia-to-reach-net-zero

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on republicans-lean-republicans-and-the-biden-effect-on-economic-sentiment
• the conversable economist on the-generic-drugs-antitrust-case, a-market-failure-case-for-place-based-policy
• Mohammed El-Erian on fed-rates-alignment-with-market-expectations-is-welcome-but-not-enough Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on how-we-could-return-to-the-productivity-growth-of-the-90s
• newdeal democrat on manufacturing-and-construction-vs-the-still-inverted-yield-curve
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-texas-border-united-states-amy-coney-barrett
• Abdallah Fayad on trump-financial-new-york-trouble-fraud-e-jean-carroll-civil-suit-damages-debt
• Zachary Carter on biden-economy-voters-polling-numbers-covid-recovery
• Jeet Heer on trump-dayton-bloodbath-speech
• Eric Foner on a-wary-faith-in-the-courts-before-the-movement
• John Cassidy on a-financial-reckoning-for-donald-trump

Europe

• William Gourlay on ripple-effects-nato-expansion
• renew economy on home-battery-capacity-equals-that-of-pumped-hydro-in-germany
• Peter Tesch on the-west-cant-solve-its-russia-problem-heres-how-it-should-handle-6-more-years-of-vladimir-putin
• Mainly Macro on detoxifying-government-debt-part-4
• Robert Huish on vladimir-putins-gold-strategy-explains-why-sanctions-against-russia-have-failed
• Anne Applebaum on russias-non-election

Asia

• Ian Hall on narendra-modis-economy-isnt-booming-for-indias-unemployed-youth-so-why-is-his-party-favoured-to-win-another-election
• Samuel Bashfield on big-leap-credibility-india-s-nuclear-weapons-capability
• John Strawson on gaza-conflict-washingtons-patience-is-wearing-thin-over-the-lack-of-leadership-from-both-israel-and-palestine
• Aaron Magunna on why-japan-s-de-risking-response-china-incoherent
• Bryan Walsh on china-hong-kong-national-security-law-article-23
• John Coyne and Justin Bassi on china-s-dominance-over-critical-minerals-poses-unacceptable-risk
• Peter Layton on china-s-grey-zone-provocations-time-reciprocate
• Margaret Scott on indonesias-corrupted-democracy-coalitions-presidents-make

Wonk

• Brad De Long on reading-alan-ryan-on-isaiah-berlin-om-karl-marx
• unsolicited reflections' on the-story-behind-south-africas-most-important-elections-since-apartheid Thanks Nick
• Institutional economics on central-bank-independence-revisited-is-it-still-a-free-lunch 
• Tim Harford on the-real-quandary-of-ai-isnt-what-people-think
• noahopinion on plentiful-high-paying-jobs-in-the-age-of-AI , are-luxury-beliefs-a-real-thing
• Roger Bottle et al on economic-transformation-lessons-from-history Thanks Brad
• Sam Roggeveen on open-sources-future-spying
• the conversable economist on non-fungible-tokens-what-are-they-and-how-much-should-i-care

General

• Andrew Aoyama on arthur-miller-letter-death-of-salesman Thanks Nick
• Brian Resnik on 17-scientific-mysteries-unsolved-dark-matter-life
• Tyler Cowen on what-is-wrong-with-movies-these-days
• Yuan Sen-Ting and Fan Liu on planet-cannibalism-is-common-says-cosmic-twin-study

Climate

• open mind on sea-level-in-new-york-city , sea-level-in-new-york-city-part-2
• this is not cool on ocean-temps-peaking-as-el-nino-fades , the-oceans-have-already-changed
• Vaclav Smil on halfway between kyoto and 2050 Thanks Brad
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-correlate
• Andrew Freedman on climate-extreme-heat-2023

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• on-the-uses-and-abuses-of-regression-models-a-call-for-reform-of-statistical-practice-and-teaching-wed-appreciate-your-comments
  
• preregistration-is-a-floor-not-a-ceiling
  
• inspiring-story-from-a-chemistry-classroom
  
• i-was-left-with-an-overwhelming-feeling-that-the-world-values-survey-is-simply-a-vehicle-for-telling-stories-about-values
  
• whistleblowers-always-get-punished
  
• why-are-all-these-school-cheating-scandals-happening
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• were-all-doomed-maybe
  

Vox Wonk

• harry-markowitz-and-foundations-modern-finance
  
• consequences-abuse-neglect-and-bullying-wellbeing-young
  
• gender-minority-gaps-confidence-and-self-evaluation
  
• geoeconomic-fragmentation-and-firms-financial-performance
  
• how-financial-authorities-can-take-advantage-artificial-intelligence
  
• development-environment-complementarity-under-weak-institutions
  
• shipping-disruptions-red-sea-local-shock-global-impact
  
• disasters-and-bank-financing
  
• preserving-media-pluralism
  
• declining-business-dynamism-europe-role-shocks-market-power-and-responsiveness
  

Trump is in a load of financial trouble

 Donald Trump is in a load of financial trouble. He did get a bond in the E Jean Carroll appeal but he cannot get one or anything else in his appeal for fraud.

I think the only reason for this is twofold.

1.  He lied in his deposition hearing when he said he had cashflow of over $500 m and climbing.
2. He obviously does not own most of his assets that is he has leveraged them to hell. This is why he cannot merely mortgage his properties or get a bond.

Combine both of these reasons is why he cannot find the money to put up in his appeal. If the NY Attorney General then successfully sells off his assets to get the money owed that action and the firesales involved will further show he is not a successful businessman.

It shows his political strategy has badly hampered his legal strategy.

It could not happen to a better person.

The By-elections are harbingers

 The ALP government in Queensland suffered massive swings in by-elections held on saturday. Indeed they might lose one safe seat.

This is a harbinger of what is coming in the state election coming this year.

The government shows all the signs of a government that has been in power too long. No opposition is so bad that it cannot form government after a party has been in for two terms. If they have a poor leader such as tony Abbott they merely replace him once that becomes all too apparent.

Test Cricket review

 It is time for a change of pace ( pun intended) and look at what occurred in Test cricket. We saw England V India and Australia play Pakistan, the windies and then the Kiwis.

Firstly let us go to India. A lot of people are saying 'bazball' has failed totally. Unfortunately they have not understood what 'bazball' is. It is getting your runs quickly so the team has plenty of time to get 20 wickets.

There were only two tests when the poms took 20 wickets. the 1st in which they won and the 4th which they should have. This happened because their bowlers were not up to the task. Their spinners for most of the series were very inexperienced and it showed. Despite inspired captaincy from Stokes this simply could not be overcome. What was inexplicable was after Poe's superb innings in the 1st test these tactics were never tried again. Indeed the middle order were never consistent at all. We frequently saw batting collapses. They dropped catches at critical times Robinson being the obvious culprit.

India was the mirror image. Their batting strong ( how good was the opener) and consistent. The bowling except for the 1st test always penetrative and their catching usually very good.

Australia's much vaunted batting lineup except for the very 1st test against Pakistan looked highly vulnerable to bowling lineups which at best had only 3 1/2 test bowlers. Indeed if Pakistan had not grassed ssome pretty simple chances they might have won the series. The windies had no batting depth at lla but draw the 2 test series and the Kiwis blew chances to win or at least draw their series. 

I am starting to wonder whether this was merely a result of tight bowling not great bowling.

The top three cricketing nations have aging bowling lineups. australia will see if their batting can cope with India next season. India will see if their new players can succeed in Australia. England will need to see if their batsmen can regain their mojo and also whether they have bowlers who can fil in the breach of their bowlers eventually retire.

It has been enjoyable to watch!

The Gaza disgrace

If you have not watched FOUR CORNERS then you should. John Lyons asked all his interviewees the same question. Why are so many palestinian women and children dying in this 'war'.

In essence the answers ranged from all palestinians support Hamas ( Hmm those demonstrations were what then? ) to there is no other way. In other words it doesn't matter how matter people are killed if all of Hamas is destroyed.  That is called collective punishment by the way. Yes it is a war crime.

If you add to that Israelis not allowing aid to get into Gaza (with the police/ military not doing anything to stop this) then what is occurring in Gaza is an absolute disgrace.

Around the Traps 15/3/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Brendan Coates on lets-not-kid-ourselves-that-private-investors-or-super-funds-will-build-the-social-housing-we-need
• Michelle Grattan on hundreds-of-tariffs-to-go-from-july-1-in-biggest-unilateral-tariff-cut-in-decades
• Ross Gittins on rba-will-decide-how-long-economys-slump-lasts, well-off-baby-boomers-should-pay-more-for-aged-care , how-digital-world-is-getting-better-at-measuring-us-up
• Ameeta Jain on prefabricated-and-build-to-rent-houses-could-help-bring-rents-down
• Hal Swerissen on what-will-aged-care-look-like-for-the-next-generation-more-of-the-same-but-higher-out-of-pocket-costs
• Greg Jericho on australia-housing-price-figures-real-estate-market-affordability
• Julia Cook and Peta Cook on the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-is-exposing-older-australians-to-the-risk-of-financial-abuse
• Nicole Lee on is-meth-use-really-going-up-lets-look-at-the-evidence-behind-the-latest-scary-headlines
• David Lee on release-of-missing-papers-from-2003-shines-a-light-on-how-australian-troops-were-sent-to-fight-the-iraq-war

OZ Climate

• Terry Hughes on the-great-barrier-reefs-latest-bout-of-bleaching-is-the-fifth-in-eight-summers-the-corals-now-have-almost-no-reprieve
• Graham Readfearn on peter-dutton-nuclear-power-comments-csiro-small-modular-reactors
• Adriamn McCallum on tennis-anyone-bad-news-for-skiers-as-snow-season-could-shrink-by-78-this-century
• peter-dutton-wonders-when-batteries-will-be-discovered-and-if-wind-turbines-are-sentient
  
• heatwave-pushes-wind-and-solar-to-record-highs-as-renewables-share-reaches-70-pct-of-nem
  
• states-need-to-do-a-lot-more-in-race-to-82-pct-renewables-because-capacity-scheme-is-not-enough
  
• not-enough-droughts-and-hefty-network-charges-the-big-barriers-to-grid-storage
  
• big-batteries-small-solar-the-heroes-of-2023-as-investment-in-big-wind-and-solar-sags
  
• csiro-notches-up-record-high-efficiency-for-printed-flexible-solar-cells
  
• australias-biggest-smelter-to-launch-massive-wind-and-solar-tender-says-nuclear-too-costly
  
• solar-and-wind-farm-blockers-to-be-weeded-out-in-rule-change-to-fast-track-renewable-projects
  
• super-cheap-transmission-upgrades-could-double-capacity-and-open-floodgates-for-renewables

Northern America

• finding gravity on most-americans-think-trump-committed Thanks Brad
• Tyler Cowen on which-u-s-firms-have-grown-in-profitability , the-canadian-economy-is-a-worthwhile-canadian-initiative
• noahopinion on trump-just-rug-pulled-the-china-hawks-on-tiktok , what-just-happened-in-san-francisco-politics
• Frank Figluizzi on republicans-fbi-budget-proposal-trump
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-04-in-february
• newdeal democrat on scenes-from-the-february-jobs-report-yes-the-household-survey-really-was-recessionary
• Nicole Narea on biden-trump-strong-economy-2024-inflation
• the conversable economist on one-year-since-the-meltdown-at-silicon-valley-bank-commercial-real-estate-and-ongoing-threats
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-matthew-kacsmaryk-judge-shopping-republicans-judicial-conference
• Jeet Heer on katie-britt-sotu-snl
• Bill Haskell on yesterday-robert-hur-testified-to-the-house-judiciary-committee
• Adam Serwer on hur-report-biden-2024-election
• David Graham on rnc-leadership-michael-whatley-lara-trump
• Andrew Prokop on robert-hur-s-report-exaggerated-biden-s-memory-issues
• ground truths on covid-4-years-on thanks Brad
• Rick Perlstein on spectacle-of-policing Thanks Brad
• Joshua Keating on biden-netanyahu-israel-gaza-pressure-leverage-arms-un
• G Elliot Morris on trump-leading-polls-plenty-time-biden-catch
• Paul Waldmann on trump-jan-6-hostages

Europe

• stumbling and bumbling on on-lazy-moralizing, a-case-for-fiscal-austerity
• Anastanysia Byesyedina on as-the-air-raid-sirens-sound-i-am-studying-ukrainian-culture-with-new-fervour-im-far-from-alone
• Mick Ryan on defensive-strategy-counteroffensive-ukraine-russia
• mainly macro on on-maxing-out-credit-cards-and-magic-money-trees
• Liz Zhou on germany-afd-far-right
• William Partelett on what-can-we-expect-from-six-more-years-of-vladimir-putin-an-increasingly-weak-and-dysfunctional-russia
• Mathew Sussex on russia-is-about-to-hold-another-presidential-election-it-neednt-bother
• Christian Caryl on mourning-navalny-the-dissident

Asia

• Joshua Keating on houthis-red-sea-yemen-gaza-israel
• Andrew Selth on myanmar-what-generals-hear-might-not-be-what-world-means
• Sairo Bano on democracy-struggling-south-asia
• Sophie Yi on understanding-china-s-efforts-bridge-south-china-sea-taiwan-strait-disputes

Wonk

• porr rich nation on the-argument-in-a-nutshell Thanks Brad
• Ian Angus on origin-rosa-luxemburgs-slogan-socialism-barbarism Thanks Brad
• imperfect information on on-bowles-friedman-and-the-loyalty-oath Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on what-the-birth-of-the-spreadsheet-teaches-us-about-generative-ai
• Nick Gruen on the-strange-alchemy-by-which-we-built-a-menacing-world-of-bullshit
• the conversable economist on basic-income-proposals-labor-market-interactions-and-good-jobs, a-slowdown-in-global-agricultural-productivity
• Menzie Chinn on monetary-policy-rates-around-the-world
• Ngo Di Lan on international-relations-changing-narrative
• sandwichman on matt-hubers-and-leigh-phillipss
• Tyler Cowen on what-are-the-exact-elasticity-assumptions-behind-the-terms-of-trade-argument-for-tariffs
• Menzie Chinn on more-on-r
• Eyal Press on the-problem-with-defining-antisemitism
• Karl Kautksy on the dictatorship of the proletariat Thanks Brad
• Selwyn Parker on shipping-great-shrinking-waterways
• noahopinion on three-threats-to-the-age-of-energy-abundance

General

• how the world became rich on the-political-economy-of-dune Thanks noah
• Allie Volpe on daylight-saving-time-change-sleep-advice
• Adriana Dutkiewiez et al on new-evidence-for-an-unexpected-player-in-earths-multimillion-year-climate-cycles-the-planet-mars
• Doug Drury on should-you-be-concerned-about-flying-on-boeing-planes

Climate

• Real Climate on more-solar-shenanigans
• David Appell on the-greenhouse-effect-strikes-again
• and Then Theres Physics on doubling-down
• ocean acidification on is-seaweed-culture-a-sustainable-approach-to-climate-change-adaptation
• Brian Resnik on amoc-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-freeze-europe
• moyhu on giss-february-global-temperature-up-by-0.22-from-january
• Benji Jones on scientists-ocean-coral-spawning-bleaching-great-barrier-reef
• Tom Sanzillo on credit-rating-agency-evolution-climate-change-risk-and-fossil-fuel-financial-viability

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• a-new-piranha-paper
  
• refuted-papers-continue-to-be-cited-more-than-their-failed-replications-can-a-new-search-engine-be-built-that-will-fix-this-problem
  
• putting-a-price-on-vaccine-hesitancy-bayesian-analysis-of-a-conjoint-experiment
  
• zotero-now-features-retraction-notices
  
• their-signal-to-noise-ratio-was-low-so-they-decided-to-do-a-specification-search-use-a-one-tailed-test-and-go-with-a-p-value-of-0-1
  
• you-probably-dont-have-a-general-algorithm-for-an-mle-of-gaussian-mixtures
  
• abraham-lincoln-and-confidence-intervals
  

Dianne Coyle

• digital-public-infrastructure-holds-key-to-shared-prosperity
  
• ai-needs-all-of-us
  
• life-the-universe-and-everything
  
• dis-uniting-kingdom
  

Vox Wonk

• victim-blaming-norms-and-violence-against-women-moral-considerations-can-induce
  
• employment-dynamics-across-firms-during-covid-19-role-job-retention-schemes
  
• leniency-inflation-damages-directive-and-decrease-cartel-cases
  
• role-informality-shaping-magnitude-fiscal-multiplier
  
• heterogeneous-impact-inflation-households-balance-sheets
  
• banks-responses-trade-uncertainty
  
• unhappy-anniversary-missed-opportunities-growth-and-convergence-portugal
  
• unravelling-drivers-emissions-reduction-deep-dive-national-characteristics
  
• populism-and-skill-content-globalisation
  
• how-house-prices-respond-monetary-tightening-role-cyclical-conditions
  
• intergenerational-health-effects-forced-displacement-japanese-american-incarceration
  
• evidence-based-policymaking-us-and-uk
  

US Politics

 Nancy Mace got into a little trouble recently. She had said she held Trump responsible for Jan 6 but that was history. She supports him now!

Worse for a woman that has been raped she thought it outrageous she was asked how could she could be asked  as a victim how could she be asked how and why she supports a man found guilty by a jury of sexual assaulting a woman. What surprised me was how totally unprepared she was for this obvious question.

I know I have talked about this before but I cannot get over how little money Trump apparently has. This makes his behaviour in the E Jean Carroll case totally unfathomable. The more he semared her the more the jury would penalise him. If he did not have the cash for the appeal why pursue such stupid behaviour. Is he that moronic?

You could say the same in the fraud case. He was daring the Judge to impose a large fine and he did.

He will need bonds in both cases and those companies providing the bond will want security to give him such a bond.  A few firesales of trump property seems certain to occur.

Republican loyalist Robert Hur was shown to be a liar in congress. Biden knew exactly the day his son died. Hur even said Biden had a photographic memory of his garage. Then we learned he kept diaries there jat like Reagan did.  Whoopsy

I forgot to mention about the trump campaign wanting people to ask if they are better off than 4 years ago? well 4 years ago there was a pandemic. Whoopsy

Aged Care

 There has been a new report on how to deal with Aged Care

 See HERE and somewhat HERE.

How can anyone argue about people who can pay should pay. It is a bit like Super. Parents want to keep all of it and leave it to their children only in this case they want the government to pay for it all.

I would have thought in a civilised society people live by their own means and the government only helps people who need helping.

There are two things I worry about as I get older. Getting some form of dementia and having to live in an aged care 'home'. The royal commision has only exacerbated this worry.

We are living in a society that is aging. We need to cope with this and this report is a decent first attempt at that.

See also Ross Gittins

Biden and his age

 People have very bad memories.  Before last year's SOTU it was argued Biden needed to get through it without any gaffes for it to be a success. Biden blew them away with his repartee. So it was again this year. the same republicans who tried to maske 'smart' interjections di so again and it ended again with Biden blowing them away.

Republicans tried to have it both ways. He couldn't say anything coherently bbut what he said was unfair!

There is very little difference in the ages between Biden and Trump yet Trump gets a free pass on his cognitive problems. He forget his own wife's name, He mistakes nikki Haley for Nancy Pelosi, he frequently believes he beat Obama and is running again against Obama!! That is merely some of it yet the media simply gloss over it.

What is the reason for this? It could be up until now Trump was merely in primaries whilst biden is the President. now they are the two nominees more analysis will be on Trump's ranting.

It could be willful. The grey Lady for example has hardly touched Trump's difficulties but highlight any Biden gaffe forgetting he has been gaffe people his whole career. 

We know Churchill fell asleep in cabinet meetings because people told us.  no-one has come up with any anecdote biden is in trouble as President because of his age.

Biden keeps himself fit and eats well Trump has a family history of dementia, is obese and eats like a teenager.

Neither should be a candidate for President but given a choice biden is easily the more coherent and understands policy.

On another matter if Trump needs a bond to appeal in the E Jean Carroll case then his cash flow is very poor.He clearly is not a billionaire. Will he get a  bond in his fraud case?  Just remember if trump loses the appeals which is likely it is the company who gave the bond who pays the money. They then have to get the money off Trump which would involve distresses sales of property!

Racism

 In recent times we have seen two incidents that involves making 'racist' comments.

Let us go first to Sam Kerr. I call her the female Gerd Muller as like Der bomber she scores a lot of little goals (as Helmut Schoen used to say.) Another way would be they were in the right place at the right time. She allegedly called a policeman a stupid white barstard. Now if you think calling a black  policeman s stupid black bastard is racist then she made a racist remark.

However this devalues what racism is. In this instance white is merely an adjective. She was not saying he was a bastard BECAUSE he was white.( It would be the same if the noun was black.

Racism is projecting a highly negative behaviour onto a person merely because of their colour of their skin. They are lazy workers, have poor morals, have little intellectual skills etc because of their skin colour. This leads to laws not allowing inter-raccial marriage etc.

The other incident was in a Thugby League match where a person was called a monkey. I have never heard in australia people using word monkey as a racist term. A long time I heard the term used in a thugby League match at the old sportsground involving Canterbury and south Sydney. The player involved was Merv Hicks who was known as the pale whale. 

Calling a person a monkey is undoubtedly a derogatory term however I would like it explained on how it is racist.

Around the Traps 5/3/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Greste on how-will-metas-refusal-to-pay-for-news-affect-australian-journalism-and-our-democracy
• Ben Scott on asio-versus-team
• Yogi Viddyattama on urbanisation-and-tax-have-driven-the-housing-crisis-its-hard-to-see-a-way-back-but-covid-provides-an-important-lesson
• Ross Gittins on contrary-to-appearances-stage-3-tax-cuts-will-leave-us-worse-off , climate-change-is-taking-over-news
• Greg Austin on over-emphasising-some-things-underplaying-others-asios-threat-assessment-is-underpinned-by-confusing-logic
• Brendan Coates on the-governments-help-to-buy-scheme-will-help-but-it-wont-solve-the-housing-crisis
• Richard Dunley on after-ambition-implementation-how-australia-builds-its-new-navy
• Kevin Bonham on redbridge-says-its-multi-party-mess
• Nick Baker and Tarryn Priadko on aukus-set-to-sink
• Andrea Carson on is-australias-golden-age-of-third-party-fact-checking-over
• Michelle Cull on what-is-negative-gearing-and-what-is-it-doing-to-housing-affordability
• Donald Rothwell on why-have-anthony-albanese-and-other-politicians-been-referred-to-the-icc-over-the-gaza-war
• Geoffrey Watson on walter-sofronoff-report-shane-drumgold-justice-kaye-bruce-lehrmann
• Greg Jericho on australia-economy-gdp-figures-december-quarter-result-growth-rba-interest-rates-inflation
• Mark Gregory on nbn-upgrade-what-a-free-speed-increase-for-fast-broadband-plans-would-mean-for-consumers-and-retailers
• John Quiggin on from-micro-to-macro-andrew-leighs-accessible-history-covers-the-economic-essentials-and-an-epic-rap-battle

OZ Climate

• australias-biggest-battery-developer-plans-to-maintain-lead-despite-fall-in-storage-earnings-project-delay
  
• absolute-smugness-australia-pioneer-laments-embarrassing-lack-of-offshore-wind-projects
  
• wind-are-solar-projects-gathering-pace-despite-coalition-campaign
  
• agl-plans-huge-2gw-2000-mwh-wind-solar-and-battery-hub-in-nsw
• the-national-electricity-market-wasnt-made-for-a-renewable-energy-future-heres-how-to-fix-it
  
• australias-emissions-are-stuck-despite-best-efforts-of-renewables
  
• peter-duttons-climate-denial-is-morphing-into-a-madcap-nuclear-fantasy-the-ban-should-stay
  
• australias-third-offshore-wind-zone-shrinks-dramatically-to-avoid-rock-lobsters
  
• australia-nuclear-facility-installs-massive-rooftop-solar-system-to-save-2-million
  
• nuclear-slow-and-expensive-renewables-fast-and-cheap-bowen-slaps-down-coalition-fantasy
  
• how-new-wind-solar-and-batteries-would-keep-lights-on-in-nsw-heatwave-even-without-eraring
  
• which-crops-grow-best-under-tracking-solar-panels-an-australian-study-is-about-to-find-out
  
• we-need-to-get-this-rightpressure-mounts-on-aemo-to-reform-grid-congestion-penalties
  
• Robert Hortle and Lachlan Johnson on in-a-dangerously-warming-world-we-must-confront-the-grim-reality-of-australias-bushfire-emissions
• Adam Morton on evs-electric-vehicles-afforable-prices-australia-liberal-coalition
• Graham Readfearn on the-coalition-wants-nuclear-power-could-it-work-or-would-it-be-an-economic-and-logistical-disaster
• Amandine Denis-Ryan and Jay Gordon on fast-efficient-flexible-electrification-can-cut-energy-bills-and-support-shift-renewables

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-a-monthly-series-of-u-s-household-income-data , guest-contribution-occupations-and-responses-to-social-security-retirement-policy
• noahopinion on getting-past-the-2010s , why-small-developers-are-getting-squeezed-out-of-the-housing-market, did-immigration-bring-down-inflation
• the bulwark on nikki-haley-hates-her-voters-and-its-weird Thanks Brad
• Bill Haskell on millions-of-people-could-benefit-from-obamacare
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-trump-colorado-ballot-disaster , supreme-court-metadata-sotomayor-trump-dissent
• Richard Hasen and Dahlia Lithwick on supreme-court-trump-presidency-colorado-immunity-ouch
• Eric Kramer on its-time-to-end-the-never-ending-libertarian-support-for-trump
• Noah Bookbinder and Donald Sherman on trump-colorado-supreme-courts-ruling-silver-lining
• newdeal democrat on what-real-spending-and-the-unemployment-rate-portend-for-the-2024-presidential-election-so-far
• Eric Levitz on trump-great-replacement-theory-elections-latino-voters
• Tyler Cowen on is-bidenomics-working
• Richard Hasen on supreme-court-john-roberts-trump-ballot-fail
• Sean Wilentz on the-constitution-turned-upside-down
• Oliver Willis explains on the-media-wants-liberals-to-shut-up-and-take-it. Don't Thanks Brad
• Lucian Truscott on there-is-something-wrong-at-the-new-york-times Thanks Brad
• the bulwark on hunter-biden-surprisingly-good-hardball-gop-lies Thanks Brad
• Jeet Heer on new-york-times-intercept-hamas-rape
• Marcy Wheeler on merrick-garland-isnt-blame-delays-trumps-election-interference-case
• Andrew Prokop on biden-state-of-the-union-age

Europe

• Ian Buruma on navalny-faced-dissident-dilemma-stay-or-flee Thanks Brad
• Alexander Clarkson on why-putin-again-threatening-nuclear-war
• Mainly Macro on rishi-sunak-doesnt-want-to-talk-about-islamphobia-he-wants-to-use-it , how-14-years-have-shown-impossibility-of-shrinking-the-UK-state

Asia

• Hannah Denson on parts-within-whole-understanding-southeast-asia-s-economies
• Khang Vu on summit-between-japan-north-korea-about-time
• Joshua Hammer on iraqs-twenty-years-of-carnage-wounded-tigris
• noahopinion on chinasplaining-will-backfire , why-japanese-cities-are-such-nice-places-to-live
• lost in translation on it-pains-to-me-to-say-hong-kong-is-NOT-over Thanks Brad

Wonk

• Tim Harford on of-top-notch-algorithms-and-zoned-out-humans
• stumbling and mumbling on youre-a-marxist
• Debalina Ghosal on missile-mad-prospects-global-arms-control
• Mark Beeson and Van Jackson on grand-strategising-view-outside
• Ellen Ioannes on sudan-conflict-war-crime-allegations-briefly-explained
• the conversable economist on the-psychology-of-poverty-is-there-evidence-for-a-trap , a-century-of-movement-toward-central-bank-independence

General

• Nick Gruen on the-strange-alchemy-by-which-we-built-a-menacing-world-of-bullshit

Climate

• Menzie Chinn on historical-data-on-temperatures
• Peter Sinclair on prayers-for-rain-new-fires-add-to-texas-disaster
• noahopinion on defending-the-status-quo-is-not-environmentalism
• Andrew Lowrey et al on what-real-spending-and-the-unemployment-rate-portend-for-the-2024-presidential-election-so-far
• skeptical science on great-lakes-ice-record-low
• essays concerning on how-much-energy-could-a-community-generate-itself
• met office on one-in-250-year-event-underway-high-in-the-atmosphere
• Moyhu on february-global-surface-templs-up-0163-from-january. hottest-february-on-record

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• how-to-code-and-impute-income-in-studies-of-opinion-polls
  
• how-large-is-that-treatment-effect-really-my-talk-at-the-nyu-economics-seminar-thurs-7-mar
  
• mindlessness-in-the-interpretation-of-a-study-on-mindlessness
  
• defining-optimal-reliance-on-model-predictions-in-ai-assisted-decisions
  
• with-journals-its-all-about-the-wedding-never-about-the-marriage
  
• Kaiser Fung on is-waze-a-ruse

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• translation
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• inflation-expectations-making-all-information-count
  
• proposal-refocus-eu-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-preventing-carbon-leakage
  
• health-insurance-expansion-reduced-height-inequality-europe
  
• framework-geoeconomics
  
• multi-establishment-firms-heat-insulators-economy-evidence-us
  
• taxing-wealthy-choice-between-wealth-and-capital-income-taxation
  
• road-traffic-flow-and-air-pollution-concentrations-evidence-japan
  
• apples-exclusionary-app-store-scheme-existential-moment-digital-markets-act
  
• forging-sustainable-future-together-report-high-level-group-future-cohesion-policy
  
• global-supply-chain-pressures-inflation-and-implications-monetary-policy
  
• financial-crises-and-tax-havens
  
• vulnerabilities-labour-market-new-survey-based-measure-labour-hoarding-eu
  
• re-joining-trade-antitrust