Around the Traps 1/5/20

It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on the-job-losses-will-be-dire-but-dont-let-coronavirus-blind-you-to-what-reform-will-mean
• Warren Staples et al on virgin-australia-was-never-going-to-last
• John Harris and Mark Hintermans on snowy-2-0-threatens-to-pollute-our-rivers-and-wipe-out-native-fish
• Asha Bowen on 5-reasons-its-safe-for-kids-to-go-back-to-school
• renew economy on fossil-fuel-web-leading-australia-to-a-deadly-recovery. aemo-to-resume-new-connections-after-solar-constraints-lifted-in-west-murray. solar-wind-and-battery-storage-now-cheapest-energy-options-just-about-everywhere, aemo-lays-out-action-plan-to-manage-75-pct-wind-and-solar-by-2025
• croaking cassandra on social-credit-too-timid-by-far-this-time . diverted-down-historical-byways. a-debt-jubilee
• Mahmoud Elkhodr on covidsafe-tracking-app-reviewed-the-government-delivers-on-data-security-but-other-issues-remain
• Lisa Taylor on australia-could-get-90-of-electricity-from-renewables-by-2040-with-no-price-increase
• Ian Wright on cutting-green-tape-may-be-good-politicking-but-its-bad-policy-here-are-5-examples-of-regulation-failure
• James Morley and Richard Holden on its-just-started-well-need-war-bonds-and-stimulus-on-a-scale-not-seen-in-our-lifetimes 
• David Brewster on back-to-the-future-keeping-australian-air-lines-communication-open
• Dick Grant on new-zealand-running-marathon
• Ross Gittins on morrison-and-medicos-must-also-avoid
• Paul Fritjers on what-should-australia-do-in-the-coming-recession
• Kevin Bonham on newspoll-record-premier-ratings-and-very-strange-federal-poll
• Institutional economics on asking-the-right-questions-about-critical-minerals
• Roger Wilkins and Jeff Borland on that-estimate-of-6-6-million-australians-on-jobkeeper-it-tells-us-how-it-can-be-improved
• Hugh Forehead on air-quality-near-busy-australian-roads-up-to-10-times-worse-than-official-figures
• Alastair Nicholas on foresight-and-pragmatism-missing-australia-s-relations-china
• Elizabeth Thurbon et al on want-an-economic-tonic-mr-morrison-use-that-stimulus-money-to-turbocharge-renewables
• Hams Hendriscke on australias-links-with-china-must-change-but-decoupling-is-not-an-option-

Northern America

• David Appell on this-doesnt-look-good-maybe . how-us-is-failing
• Menzie Chinn on worried-about-hyperinflation
• the conversable economist on some-thought-on-us-pharmaceutical-prices-and-markets
• Geoffrey Skelley on you-can-pay-attention-to-those-trump-vs-biden-polls-but-be-cautious
• James Hamilton on economy-in-a-nose-dive
• David A Graham on how-many-warnings-did-trump-ignore
• Robert Waldmann on remdesivir-7 
• the grumpy economist on the-fire-in-treasurys
• The Bulwark on /we-cannot-reopen-america Thanks Soony 
• Open Mind on keep-lockdown-because-you-are-saving-lives
• Stephen gordon on veall2
• the conversable economist on us-population-growth-at-historic-lows

Europe

• Gregory Connor on capital-sources-for-pandemic-emergency-funding-of-irish-smes-can-ireland-mimic-the-us-approach
• Mainly Macro on did-scientists-advising-government-on-coronavirus-make-a-mistake
• stumbling and mumbling on avoidable-unemployment

Asia

• Olivia Tasevski on islands-ire-south-korea-japan-dispute
• Craig Mark on how-shinzo-abe-has-fumbled-japans-coronavirus-response
• Roshni Kapur and Chayanika Saxena on  taliban-makes-most-covid-19-crisis-afghanistan
• Trin Le on troubled-waters-china-s-sovereign-ambition-shadows-covid-19
• Bernard Avishai on how-benjamin-netanyahu-has-managed-the-pandemic-for-political-gain
• Rodger Shanahan on high-price-cheap-oil-saudi-arabia

Wonk

• Kareem Salim on isis-looks-prosper-world-distracted-virus
• Tim Harford on for-peace-of-mind-in-the-pandemic-let-go-of-impossible-to-do-lists
• Barkley Rosser on the-wide-open-origin-question-regarding
• stumbling and mumbling on risk-in-capitalism
• Stephen Gordon on veall
• New Deal democrat on what-the-ratio-of-positive-tests-to-total-test-results-for-coronavirus-is-telling-us. . the-biochemistry-of-how-covid-19-attacks-the-body-a-synopsis-of-the-medical-studies.
• Peter Layton on kindleberger-moment
• Tim Harcourt on mining-boom-dining-boom-and-more-economic-consequences-covid
• the conversable economist on 1957-when-machines-arrived
• Jen Kirby on brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-moro
• Hassan Vally on 6-countries-6-curves-how-nations-that-moved-fast-against-covid-19-avoided-disaster
• Damien Spry on information-warfare-theatre-covid-19
• Eric Lonergan on helicopter-money-as-covid-response
• Nouriel Roubini on ten-reasons-why-greater-depression-for-the-2020s-is-inevitable-covid

General

• David Anderson on joseph-banks-traveller-botanist-and-agent-of-the-british-empire
• Philip Almond on is-god-good-in-the-shadow-of-mass-disaster-great-minds-have-argued-the-toss
• Katheinz Peter et al on people-with-coronavirus-are-at-risk-of-blood-clots-and-strokes-heres-what-we-know-so-far
• Niall Wheate and Andrew Bartlett on is-remdesivir-a-miracle-drug-to-cure-coronavirus-dont-get-your-hopes-up-yet

Climate

• Rabbett run on yet-another-new-puzzler
• real climate on nenana-ice-classic-2020
• peter sinclair on scientists-call-bs-on-moore-film
• Jillian Ambrose on covid-19-crisis-demand-fossil-fuels-iea-renewable-electricity

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• no-they-wont-share-their-data
• the-return-of-red-state-blue-state
• more-than-one-always-more-than-one-to-address-the-real-uncertainty
• controversy-regarding-the-effectiveness-of-remdesivir
• rodman
• tracking-r-of-covid-19-also-some-general-thoughts-on-science
• coronavirus-the-cathedral-or-the-bazaar-or-the-cathedral-and-the-bazaar
• reverse-engineering-priors-in-coronavirus-discourse
• some-of-you-must-have-an-idea-of-the-answer-to-this-one
• resolving-the-cathedral-bazaar-problem-in-coronavirus-research-and-science-more-generally-could-we-follow-the-model-of-genetics-research-as-suggested-by-some-psychology-researchers
• updated-imperial-college-coronavirus-model-including-estimated-effects-on-transmissibility-of-lockdown-social-distancing-etc
• updated-santa-clara-study-of-coronavirus-infection
• then-the-flaming-sheet-with-the-whirr-of-a-liberated-phoenix-would-fly-up-the-chimney-to-join-the-stars
• hey-you-yeah-you-stop-what-youre-doing-right-now-and-read-this-stigler-article-on-the-history-of-robust-statistics
• simple-bayesian-analysis-inference-of-coronavirus-infection-rate-from-the-stanford-study-in-santa-clara-county
• how-scientists-perceive-advancement-of-knowledge-from-conflicting-review-reports
• statistics-controversies-from-the-perspective-of-industrial-statistics/
• statschat on why-new-york-is-different . some-kind-of-record
• variable variability on break-detection-deceptive-noise-break-signal-variance . statistical-homogenization-under-correction-trends
• Kaiser Fung on pre-processing-data-to-avoid-putting-your-foot-in-that-puddle

Retired but genial Dave Giles

• freakometrics on testing for covid 19 in the US

Dianne Coyle

• docs books on the-great-influenza-the-epic-story-of-the-deadliest-plague-in-history-by-john-barry Thanks Jim Rose
• reading the best biographies of all time on review-ofwalt-disney-the-triumph-of-the-american-imagination-by-neal-gabler . review-of-alexander-hamilton-by-ron-chernow thanks Jim Rose
• European Royal History on the-life-of-edward-ii-king-of-england-and-lord-of-ireland Thanks Jim Rose

vox wonk

• startup-employment-calculator-covid-19
• services-trade-and-covid-19
• proposal-exit-covid-19-lockdown
• forecasting-recoveries-difficult-evidence-past-recessions
• corporate-board-networks-and-firm-value
• we-need-better-head-start-next-pandemic
• cash-time-corona
• distributional-effects-controlling-pandemic
• tracking-covid-19-crisis-through-transactions
• covid-19-workerss-exposure-risk-and-lockdown
• interaction-between-covid-19-and-ageing-society
• coronavirus-weak-spot-exit-strategy
• europe-must-act-now-prepare-aftermath-pandemic-crisis
• globalisation-sale
• covid-19-could-spur-automation-and-reverse-globalisation-some-extent
• apprenticeship-and-youth-unemployment
• brakes-or-bans-protecting-financial-markets-during-pandemic
• 1918-influenza-did-not-kill-us-economy
• when-pandemic-collides-leveraged-global-economy
• make-sure-esm-s-pandemic-crisis-support-fit-purpose
• it-s-retail-stores-and-restaurants-not-farms-and-fisheries-suffer-most-social-distancingnew-ebook-covid-19-and-trade-policy-why-turning-inward-wont-work
• effects-recessionary-stimulus-programmes
• exposing-underlying-vulnerabilities-social-contracts
• unemployment-effects-stay-home-orders
• central-banks-covid-19-policy-response
• coronataxes-solution
• eu-recovery-fund-opportunity-change
• green-bridges-reconnecting-europe-avoid-economic-disaster

Sport will get hit by the coronavirus

Sport will get hit big time by the coronavirus.
Let us look at some professional sports and then community sports.

let us go go the UK.
The EPL is the biggest professional league in the world.
Their revenue streams come from:

1. Their owner likely to be a billionaire
2. Their sponsors
3. Spectators paying to watch in home games
4. Merchandise i.e shirts etc
5. TV for EPL and champions league
6. membership 'fees'

All five will come under pressure from the effects of the lockdown inducing depressions around the world.

This means all clubs will have revenue problems. Players contracts will have to be changed and downgraded until football becomes 'normal' again. Any re-start of competitions will need at the minimum weekly testing of players for the virus as will occur in Germany.

Now clubs not in the EPL will be much more affected. They will either have none of 1), 2). 4) and 5) or very little. 

Without matches their income stream is nothing. This puts a lot of financial strain on all clubs  not in the EPL, More so if they are in the lower divisions. Some may not survive.

  

Let us come back to OZ. First here is Scott Heinrich on our situation.

I tend to agree.

If we take the four winter codes then 1) will be minimal. 2) is important. 3) is only important for AFL, 4) is minimal as Australia is a small market ,5) is the biggest  for all and 6) is again only important for AFL.

Thus we can see why the AFL is the most relaxed code and why the NRL desperately wants to start its competition although it is hard to envisage how they can obviate the health issues as the Budesliga has attempted for example

It could have dire consequences more for Rugby but also for the A-League.

This pandemic will force every sport to diversify their revenue streams. Surely most will put a larger effort into attracting larger crowds. For example I'm told the break even crowd for  Sydney FC was 15,000. This would have changed since the sports ground is no longer available. I would be aiming for crowds of 20k for big matches and break even for games that are less so.

Either way.the future will change significantly. It is very important to note none were prepared for a rainy day let alone a bloody snow storm!

Now let us take a walk within community sports. Here I will deal with what may occur where I live,

Whether it be football or cricket the main sponsors for clubs are either pubs of clubs. They get money and the quid pro quo is a significant number of players drink at their establishment after the game. A win-win so to speak.

This simply will not occur. All these businesses will be  the last open. They need to build up both their profitability, cashflow and cash reserves.

Also and very important the number of players could wel be well down. A lot will not have a job. some might want to give the reduced season away ( more on that later) and wait for next season.

This also means the famous sporting BBQ might not get the much needed revenue for clubs as well.

Now I hear football wants to play a full season when it restarts. This would mean finals in November, This would mean  cricket and football fighting for the sane grounds.

Will councils increase their charges to sports? Will membership fees and fees for officials such as referees and umpires fall?

I think any winter sport would be mad to attempt to start their competition. It would be cactus as soon as the first virus victim is found.

Either way the future for sport is quite mixed.

TV viewing: The Capture

In lockdown we need decent TV viewing and we are not getting it.
Thank the Lord for the ABC.
They have just finished the UK mini-series The Capture. Do not read the link if you have not viewed it.
If you have not then view it HERE.
It is superb. Full of twists that you will be wondering what is next.
The ending has a touch of the postman rings twice but again with a twist.

Highly Recommended.

Those poms know how to produce a good crime drama.

Whoopsy.
 I forgot the sexist part. the lead actress is possibly the only attractive redhead I have seen on screen, She has a very seductive walk about her. however don't get me wrong the actresses on both Castle and Forever are far more beautiful  (indeed the actress in The Capture is attractive but not beautiful)  however neither of them have the seductive walk of this actress.

Angus Taylor should resign and the AFP have questions to answer

We have previously written about the hapless Angus Taylor and his absurd attempt to embarrass Sydney council where he got very embarrassed.

We now have evidence from the NSW police  that Taylor could not have possibly gotten his information from the council's website, something that anyone with any 'techie' nous already knew.
We also know that he did not not co-operate with NSW police. All information gained HAD to be go through and be gotten through his legal team. My brother was a detective and I can tell you police can learn more if the person is questioned directly even with their legal counsel present rather having their legal  team as an intermediary.

Thus we have confirmation Taylor lied to parliament on two issues. Just as well our PM is a christian ( sarc).

This further embarrasses the AFP. There was a case to investigate ( and remember most of the legwork had been done) and clearly the AFP for reasons not given to us , too lazy and too scared, simply did not want to investigate.
It is a disgrace.

A journey with some denialist blogs

I thought I might recount some adventures with some denialist blogs.

They all came via Jim Rose's blog which says a lot.

The first is Stop these Things.
I am unsure whether articles written on this blog are lies by someone who knows they are blatant lies or simply written about because of pure ignorance.
When I came to this blog it was because of a rant essentially saying electricity prices had risen because of renewables, We had to get back to coal fired power stations because they were reliable and cheaper than renewables.
I made a comment that said basically both the ACCC and Grattan Institute had done research into electricity prices rises over the last ten years and both had found the three main causes , gold plating of the system, profit margins and rises in wholesale prices are all associated with privatisation. I should add here no-one but no-one has rebutted this research. What the denialists do is simply ignore it.
Moreover units in coal fired power stations broke down once every three days and both new wind and new solar were either as cheap as old coal or cheaper. They were both very much cheaper then a new coal fired power station.
I was banned for that comment but was never told. My comment s just suddenly 'vanished'.

the second is Not a lot of people know that. It is run by Paul Homewood.  HERE is a great example of Neven from Arctic ice blog showing up Homewood as an ignoramus.
I came across Homewood after his writing that our bushfires were a result of a lack of hazard reduction. His source was the Australian.
I made a comment showing the reasoning was inaccurate. He was not convinced. I made another linking  two articles which I wrote about HERE.
I was promptly banned because I had linked the ABC and they were not to be trusted.

The third is Trust yet verify. It concerned the Telsa battery. I questioned his use of using 2 Y axis. I was banned for doing this. Again no  reason was given and nor was I told.
In this instance I have no idea of what is going on. I can only assume his banning is because he clearly could not answer my questions about using 2 Y axis.

Only three blogs I know but a similarity none the less. People running denialist blogs are very insecure and rarely understand the topic they are writing about.

Says it all really

Around the Traps 25/4/20

It is time yet again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on the-good-the-bad-and-the-possibly-ugly-in-the-imf-projections-for-australia
• Craig Foster on australians-want-to-open-their-homes-to-locked-down-refugees-the-government-should-let-them
• Carol Johnson on has-coronavirus-killed-ideology-no-its-just-cycled-it-around-again
• Katherine Gibney and Jodie McVernon on what-might-trigger-a-return-to-normal-why-our-coronavirus-exit-strategy-is-tbc
• Stephen Hamilton et al on open-letter-from-122-australian-economists-dont-sacrifice-health-for-the-economy
• Brendan Coates et al on the-charts-that-show-coronavirus-pushing-up-to-a-quarter-of-the-workforce-out-of-work
• renew economy on arena-future-clouded-as-taylor-fudges-on-board-appointments . wind-solar-help-push-grid-emissions-to-record-low-prices-to-four-year-low
• Katherine Kemp and Rob Nicholls on no-more-negotiating-new-rules-could-finally-force-google-and-facebook-to-pay-for-news
• Croaking Cassandra on the-lack-of-any-serious-transparency . reserve-bank-answers-to-questions-from-mps. the-minister-of-finance-spoke
• Volodmyr Bilotkach on voluntary-administration-isnt-a-death-sentence-for-virgin-australia-or-for-competition
• Joshua Black on secrets-and-scandals-where-malcolm-turnbulls-memoir-fits-in-the-rich-history-of-prime-ministerial-books
• Mark Kenny on despite-huge-coronavirus-stimulus-package-the-government-might-still-need-to-pay-more
• David Walker on covid-19-the-path-back
• Institutional economics on what-covid-19-means-for-australian-productivity
• Adam Morton on energy-companies-will-face-pressure-to-lower-prices-as-wholesale-costs-tumble
• Jeff Borland et al on the-attacks-are-misguided-in-a-time-of-crisis-the-bureau-of-statistics-is-serving-us-well
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-modelling-tells-us-the-coronavirus-app-will-need-a-big-take-up-economics-tells-us-how-to-get-it

Northern America

• Jane Coaston on stay-at-home-protests-trump-tea-party-reelection
• Riley Begin on trump-says-theres-enough-testing-to-reopen-businesses-governors-say-thats-false-and-just-delusional
• Brad De Long on the-united-states-has-been-treading-water-on-coronavirus-since-early-april , the-hoover-institutes-richard-epstein-is-an-intellectual-fraudster-pure-and-simple , note-to-self-francois-velde-on-economic-effects-of-spanish-flu-european-macro-history-online-seminar
• Peter Dorman on the-usual-deficit-blather-from-new-york
• the grumpy economist on subways-and-virus
• the conversable economist on health-care-headed-for-one-fifth-of-us
• calculated risk on comments-on-march-existing-home-sales. a-few-comments-on-march-new-home-sales
• German Lopez on coronavirus-hot-spots-covid-new-york-michigan-florida
• Sean Illing on coronavirus-social-distancing-lockdown-trump-tea-party
• Jeremy Stahl on stephen-miller-trump-immigration-suspension
• Chritian Paz on how-anthony-fauci-made-himself-meme
• Michael Greenberg on andrew-cuomo-emergency-responder
• John Cassiday on fringe-protests-cant-distract-from-trumps-coronavirus-failures
• David Appell on covid-19-deaths-compared
• Open Mind on coronavirus-in-your-state
• the grumpy economist on treasury-liquidity
• Jonathan Chait on trump-kevin-hassett-dow-36-000-coronavirus-model-deaths Thanks Brad

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on swedish-expert-against-lockdowns
• Mainly Macro on now-is-not-time
• Lisa Louis on hit-hard-could-covid-lead-europe-rethink-economic-policy
• Daniel Woker on europe-hasn-t-fallen-china-if-anything-it-s-opposite
• James Empty blog on blueskiesresearchorguk-bayesian-deconstruction
• Eleanour Gordon and Ketrina Lee-Koo on danger-disease-world-s-largest-refugee-camp
• Paul Fritjers on uk-policy-wonks-following-troppo-in-saying-the-lock-downs-were-a-mistake-but-hiding-the-message-a-bit
• stumbling and mumbling on technocrats-class

Asia

• Ben Bland on new-crackdown-will-deepen-dividing-lines-hong-kong
• Aarti Betigeri on india-strange-sight-clear-skies-amid-corona-gloom
• Graeme smith on murky-origins-why-china-will-never-welcome-a-global-inquiry-into-the-source-of-covid

Wonk

• Marcus Colla on vanishing-hegemon
• Ramesh Thakur on flattening-economy-costs-lives-livelihoods-and-freedoms-too
• Tim Harford on how-do-we-value-a-statistical-life
• Nick Rowe on a-simple-micromacro-corona-tax-model-of-the-pandemic
• the conversable economist on ilo-covid-19-lockdowns-and-global-labor-force , product-longevity-and-planned-obsolescence
• Barkley Rosser on negative-oil-prices
• James Hamilton on negative-oil-prices
• Chritian Downie on complex-consequences-plunging-oil-price
• stumbling and mumbling on when-rules-dont-apply
• Stephen Freeland and Ann Handmar on giant-leap-for-corporations-the-trump-administration-wants-to-mine-resources-in-space-but-is-it-legal
• Sam Bateman on safety-life-sea-covid-19-and-naval-operations
• James empty blog on blueskiesresearchorguk-5-day-doubling-and-the-great-covid 19-uncalibrated-modelling-fiasco
• Richard Telford on simplistic-and-dangerous-models
• Toby Phillips on its-time-to-admit-our-covid-19-exit-strategy-might-just-look-like-a-more-flexible-version-of-lockdown
• Maru Sheel et al on can-coronavirus-spread-4-metres
• Tom Schodor on missing-action-g20-covid-crisis
• Charlotte Owens on case-world-health-organisation
• John Quiggin on are-the-imfs-forecasts-too-pessimistic
• Eric Lonergan on policy-response-updated
• Uneasy Money on filling-the-arrow-explanatory-gap
• Mainly Macro on why-media-in-uk-and-us-has-moved-beyond- manufacuring-consent

General

• Henry Farrell on show-me-your-books
• Benjamin Nicholls on war-movies-are-big-earners-what-does-that-say-about-us
• Emma Smith on how-to-read-shakespeare-for-pleasure 

Climate

• Stochastic Trend on designing-future-electricity-markets
• Damien Carrington on ice-free-arctic-summers-now-very-likely-even-with-climate-action
• and Then Theres Physics on chanting-to-the-choir . scenario-use-in-climate-research

Andrew Gelman ( main;y stats)

• the-best-coronavirus-summary-so-far
• fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence
• coronavirus-in-sweden-whats-the-story
• more-coronavirus-testing-results
• new-coronavirus-forecasting-model
• himmicanes
• analysis-of-excess-coronavirus-mortality-also-a-question-about-poststratification
• in-any-case-we-have-a-headline-optimizer-that-a-b-tests-different-headlines
• information-or-misinformation-during-a-pandemic-comparing-the-effects-of-following-nassim-taleb-richard-epstein-or-cass-sunstein-on-twitter
• crowdpeerreview
• new-york-coronavirus-antibody-study-why-i-had-nothing-to-say-to-the-press-on-this-one
• 10-on-coronavirus
• theyre-not-looking-for-a-needle-in-a-haystack-theyre-looking-for-a-needle-in-a-pile-of-needles
• statschat on counting-rare-things-is-hard
• Variable Variability on correcting-inhomogeneities-perfect-breaks
• Kaiser Fung on the-percent-with-antibodies-could-be-3-percent-or-it-could-be-zero-thats-what-the-stanford-study . why-tests-are-not-perfect .the-percent-with-antibodies-could-be-3-percent-or-it-could-be-zero-thats-what-the-stanford-study-reaached

Retired but genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• econometric sense on the-value-of-business-experiments-part 2
• Freakometrics on estimate excess mortality

Dinne Coyle ( qirky + book reviews)

• adventures of a Tudor nerd on book-review-henry-viii-and-the-men-who-made-him-by-tracy-borman , book-review-thomas-cromwell-a-revolutionary-life-by-diarmaid-macculloch Thanks Jim Rose
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-16-the-ostrich-paradox , book-of-the-week-18-the-unthinkable-by-amanda-ripley

Vox Wonk

• legacy-financial-crises-lessons-mexico
• credit-and-trading-behaviour-evidence-south-sea-bubble
• impact-coronavirus-pandemic-gender-equality
• shock-dependence-exchange-rate-pass-through
• growth-non-bank-finance-and-new-monetary-policy-tools
• monetary-policy-oil-exporting-countries
• impact-covid-19-crisis-equilibrium-interest-rate
• mitigating-covid-19-panic-buying-lessons-historical-financial-crises
• underpinnings-sweden-s-permissive-covid-regime
• repair-and-reconstruct-recovery-initiative
• coronavirus-perspective-17th-century-plague
• covid-19-job-displacement-emerging-markets
• early-draconian-social-distancing-may-be-suboptimal-fighting-covid-19-epidemic
• perfect-storm-covid-19-emerging-economies
• european-response-covid-19-crisis-pragmatic-proposal
• debt-standstill-covid-19-low-and-middle-income-countries
• covid-19-and-gender-gaps-latest-evidence-and-lessons-uk
• covid-19-employment-middle-income-economies
• corona-financial-solidarity-levy
• covid-19-employment-and-women-oecd-countries
• covid-19-italy-analysis-death-registry-data
• how-uk-government-should-respond-unequal-local-economic-impacts-covid-19
• robust-money-markets
• bank-risk-profiles-and-zero-lower-bound
• call-impact-special-issue-economic-policy-economics-covid-19
• covid-19-susceptibility-women-and-work
• value-testing
• impact-us-coronavirus-stimulus-package
• keeping-firms-afloat-during-covid-19-crisis
• short-term-forecasting-coronavirus-pandemic
• national-policies-global-pandemic
• trade-and-covid-19-wto-s-2020-and-2021-trade-forecast
• there-deflation-or-inflation-our-future
• real-time-consumer-spending-responses-lockdown
• southern-european-and-emerging-market-firms-are-under-severe-distress
• lack-demand-during-coronavirus-crisis
• take-innovation-economists-covid-19-crisis
• real-time-labour-market-estimates-during-2020-coronavirus-outbreak

Chanting to the choir

and Then Theres Physics has a link ( and commentary on a fascinating paper which in essence compares Skeptical Science and Jo Nova.
Okay it is like comparing apples to oranges. Skeptical science does real work whilst jonova is a mickey mouse denialist blog which i have to say is very much the norm amongst denialists.

Very interesting reading.

A few thoughts on Virgin Australia

First of all Virgin Australia has entered in voluntary administration. This is not receivership.
for one thing they can trade their way out of difficulties. The Ten network for example did this
THIS may help.

Virgin Australia has large debts which only recently was brought back onto the balance sheet.

There are a number of advantages which Deloitte who were appointed  the administrators by the Virgin Australia board can do.

1. They can tell the the creditors to take hair cuts on the money they have loaned Virgin Australia. They can do this otherwise they ( the creditors) will not get any money owed.
2. They can no longer service regional routes in Australia which are not profitable. They can do this as everyone knows Virgin Australia needs to be profitable.
3. With international travel some way off they do not have to service any international routes for quite some time.

This means Virgin Australia will simply service the profitable capital city routes until it is travelling well. It then has the luxury of picking and choosing routes that merely make  money.

This means a smaller workforce for a start. 

It also means what is necessary is not restructuring but a different business strategy.

As anyone who has been to business school this is almost always the case with any struggling company.

The Coronavirus and Sweden

Some interesting articles on Sweden and the virus.

• Andrew Gelman Phil Price  on more-coronavirus-testing-results ,coronavirus-in-sweden-whats-the-story
• Tyler Cowen on swedish-expert-against-lockdowns
• Nils Kaslon et al on underpinnings-sweden-s-permissive-covid-regime

There are more but we have carpet cleaning here so I have to go.

Enjoy

Designing future electricity markets

The ever present David Stern from Stochastic Trends writes about designing-future-electricity-markets. evolution-not-revolution.

It is highly educative reading. Few people realise renewables have a marginal cost of zero however their price is not zero. Read on

Around the Traps 18/4/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on some-economic-dimensions ,measuring-the-slump, the-treasurys-economic-scenarios , questions-for-the-reserve-bank , coronavirus-economics-and-policy-from-the-mailbox , how-large-a-gdp-loss-under-level-4
• Hassan Vally on headlines-promise-australias-on-the-cusp-of-defeating-coronavirus-were-not-and-its-too-soon-to-relax-restrictions
• Ross Gittins on how-would-jesus-treat-people-on-dole
• Andrew Burridge on hotels-are-no-luxury-place-to-detain-people-seeking-asylum-in-australia
• Stephen Kirchner on the-downturn-in-the-us-economy-and-the-implications-for-australia
• Andrew Linden and Warren Staples on the-last-thing-companies-should-be-doing-right-now-is-paying-dividends
• Quentin Grafton on while-towns-run-dry-cotton-extracts-5-sydney-harbours-worth-of-murray-darling-water-a-year-its-time-to-reset-the-balance
• Stan Grant on how-some-australian-media-are-failing-us-on-coronavirus
• June Ma on trading-our-way-out-covid-19-lockdown
• Nick Gruen on blogging-the-spanish-flu
• renew economy on why-australia-needs-to-aim-for-at-least-75-renewables-by-2030 , falling-electricity-prices-could-favour-shift-to-mega-wind-and-solar-projects
• Rebecca Annian-Welsh on explainer-what-did-the-high-court-find-in-the-annika-smethurst-v-afp-case
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-apras-extraordinary-gift-to-banks-under-pressure-to-pay-dividends
• Troy Baisden on polluted-drained-and-drying-out-new-warnings-on-new-zealands-rivers-and-lakes
• Brendan Coates and Jonathan Nolan on Eradicicating-the-covid-19-coronavirus-is-also-the-best-economic-strategy
• John Quiggin on unlocking-australia

Northern America

• Zack Beauchamp on trump-coronavirus-stimulus-inspector-general-fine
• The Grumpy Economist on snafu
• Barkley Rosser on trump-all-over-place-on-oil-prices
• Livio De Matteo on public-health-spending-and-pandemic-preparedness
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-will-the-recovery-be-j-shaped , guest-contribution-business-cycle-dynamics-after-the-great-recession-an-extended-markov-switching-dynamic-factor-model
• David Smith on donald-trump-blames-everyone-but-himself-for-the-coronavirus-crisis-will-voters-agree
• Erin Hurley on us-campaign-no-trail 
• Mackay Coppins on trump-coronavirus-message
• Finton O'Toole on vector-in-chief
• Pro Growth Liberal on corporate-bond-spreads-and-pandemic
• Tyler Cowen on re-starting-the-economy
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-march-housing-starts
• Peter Kafka on trump-denial-coronavirus-covid-19-failings-propaganda-battles-media-coverage
• Eric Kramer on what-does-the-covid-19-epidemic-teach-us-about-the-role-of-government
• New Deal Democrat on coronavirus-dashboard-for-april-16-if-new-infections-have-passed-peak-what-pace-of-decline-can-we-expect
• Sam Wang on curve-bent

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on what-centre
• Chris Bertram on labour-insiders-and-their-pet-journalists-worked-to-undermine-the-party
• Tyler Cowen on why-isnt-sweden-exploding
• Zack Beauchamp on coronavirus-covid-19-hungary-orban-trump-populism
• Alex Ward on coronavirus-sweden-herd-immunity-cases-death

Asia

• Khang Vu on vietnam-north-korea-politics-and-covid-19-numbers-tell-story
• Craig Keating on covid-19-ceasefire-unlikely-hasten-peace-thailand-s-south
• Cornelia Tremann on africa-prepares-fight-covid-19-china-steps-up
• Elliot Brennan on decisive-month-covid-19-myanmar-and-region-beyond

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on three-waves-of-the-1918-20-flu-uk
• Uneasy Money on the-equilibrium-of-each-is-the-result-of-the-equilibrium-of-all-or-the-rational-expectation-of-each-is-the-result-of-the-rational-expectation-of-all 
• and Then Theres Physics on models
• Tyler Cowen on why-social-distancing-will-persist , an-econometrician-on-the-seird-epidemiological-model-for-covid-19
• Tim Harford on can-we-contain-viral-misinformation
• Tobias Keller and Rosalie Gillet on why-is-it-so-hard-to-stop-covid-19-misinformation-spreading-on-social-media
• Ben Eliasaf et al on why-15-countries-still-haven-t-reported-any-cases-covid-19
• Mainly Macro on some-myths-about-government-debt-and-how-it-is-financed
• long and variable on periscope-q-and-as-for-non-economists-friday-10am
• Freya Higgins-Desboilles on this-could-be-the-end-of-the-line-for-cruise-ships
• the conversable economist on a-covid-19-two-pronged-choice , from-imf-baseline-prediction
• Adam Kamradt-Scott on explainer-what-donald-trumps-funding-cuts-to-who-mean-for-the-world
• Shagar Hameiri on covid-19-why-did-global-health-governance-fail
• Open Mind on lockdown-works
• James Empty blog on blueskiesresearchorguk-model
• Robert Waldmann on economic-policy-for-the-pandemic-iii-what-about-aggregate-demand
• Paul Fritjers on how-the-corona-narrative-will-flip-two-predictions
• David Griffin et al on this-isnt-the-first-global-pandemic-and-it-wont-be-the-last-heres-what-weve-learned-from-4-others-throughout-history
• stumbling and mumbling on when-rules-dont-apply
• Stephen Kirchner on coronavirus-means-globalisation-has-suffered

General

• Tambri Housen et al on how-long-are-you-infectious-when-you-have-coronavirus
• Rachel Goldust on great-time-to-try-starting-a-vegetable-garden

Climate

• Rabett run on twas-best-of-times-for-proxy-reconstructions
• Moyhu on l-down-by-006-from-february
• David Appell on no-change-in-atmospheric-co2 , second-warmest-march-fourth-warmest-month
• citizens challenge on considering-malicious-willful-ignorance
• Nicola Davis on scientists-confirm-dramatic-melting-greenland-ice-sheet
• Real Climate on regional-climate-modeling-and-some-common-omissions

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-checklist-manifesto-and-beyond
• usual-channels-of-clinical-research-dissemination-getting-somewhat-clogged-what-can-go-wrong-does
• john-conway
• considerate-swedes-only-die-during-the-week
• america-is-used-to-blaming-individuals-for-systemic-problems-lets-try-to-avoid-that-this-time
• hey-lets-check-the-calibration-of-some-coronavirus-forecasts
• number-of-deaths-or-number-of-deaths-per-capita
• rct-on-use-of-cloth-vs-surgical-masks
• marc-hauser-victim-of-statistics
• conway-ii
• trashed-6
• the-politicization-of-the-coronavirus-discussion
• Kaiser Fung on enter-at-your-own-peril-the-statistics-of-diagnostic-testing , when-will-we-get-more-and-broader-testing , another-note-on-fitting-exponential-models , excess-deaths-why-we-want-the-cake-and-why-we-cant-eat-it-yet

Retired genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Freakometrics on a short history of randomised experiments
• Marc Bellamare on Peter Kennedy,Judea Pearl or both

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• summer-1978
• Andrew Gelman on the-fall-guy-by-james-lasdun
• John West on book-review-indo-pacific-contest 
• Frances Woolley on the-behavioural-economics-behind-the-marie-kondo-method
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-15-the-earthsea-trilogy-by-ursula-k-le-guin

Vox Wonk

• coronavirus-pandemic-and-us-consumption
• options-immediate-employment-and-social-policy-response-covid-19
• saving-economic-data-covid-19
• keeping-track-unemployment-gap
• financing-covid-19-deficit-when-you-are-short-money
• covid-induced-economic-uncertainty-and-its-consequences
• impact-covid-19-chronic-health-uk
• pandenomics-policymaking-post-pandemic-world
• remobilising-workforce-world-war-covid
• agribusiness-led-development-and-farming-profits
• creation-healthy-cyber-ecosystem
• how-imf-should-respond-emerging-markets-crisis
• measuring-impact-german-public-shutdown-spread-covid-19
• covid-19-day-care-centre-closures-and-parental-time-use
• labour-markets-during-covid-19-crisis-preliminary-view
• unintended-effects-loan-guarantees
• long-run-view-coronabonds-debate
• make-room-fiscal-action-through-debt-conversion
• finances-european-households-through-pandemic
• why-public-procurement-openness-more-important-now-ever
• work-after-covid-new-regime-independent-workers
• civic-capital-and-social-distancing
• covid-crisis-and-productivity-growth
• propagation-economic-impact-lockdowns-through-supply-chains

Some myths about government debt and how it is financed

Simon Wren-Lewis from Mainly Macro fame writes a great article on some-myths-about-government-debt-and-how-it-it-financed.

Really good reading

Why Morrison is much better than Trump

When Scott Morrison holds a press conference it is short, sharp and to the point. He gives his advisors plenty of time to talk on the technical issues. He does not intervene and not allow them to respond to questions. Probably because he does not give views which are in conflict with them.

Trump on the other hand holds lengthy press conferences which are both rambling and rants  which are no m ore than election rallies. When someone asks a pointed question to one of his specialist advisors he intervenes. When people quote what he says back at him or write lengthy articles full of e-mails etc he says it is fake news. He insults reporters like all people. ( I wonder his reaction if someone called him fat stupid donald??). He shows how cself absorbed he is.
Unlike in Australia there is little information given o out. We only see a spoiled child at 'work'.

How many people will trust Trump when he says it is over?

We are so lucky in Australia not to have Trump as a leader.

The ABC is a jewel

When there is a crisis the ABC rises to the occasion. It leaves any commercial radio or TV station in its wake.
We saw this during the bushfires. It was superbly covered by the ABC.

Now again with the coronavirus we see it again.

four corners did a wonderful episode on the topic. Q&A has approached the subject from various directions and they have all worked.

however undoubtedly the main star has been Norman Swan. He has become a superstar.
He was a medical practitioner  but then gave it all away after joining the ABC.

His scottish accent gives him a wonderful voice for both radio and TV.

Because of his background he knows what he is talking about or when he is interviewing.

Not surprisingly he was in the epistemology corner of going hard go early which has been proved correct.  He is almost an academic. He has the time to read up on any topic with regrad to health and then gets to interview the experts.
He is thus essential hearing or viewing these days. I admit to hearing the medical report he does on Radio National on Mondays every so often and was always impressed.
He is always impressive these days.

Around the Traps 11/4/20 Easter Friday edition

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Sally Young on during-the-great-depression-many-newspapers-betrayed-their-readers-some-are-doing-it-again-now
• Suze Wilson on three-reasons-why-jacinda-arderns-coronavirus-response-has-been-a-masterclass-in-crisis-leadership
• Kevin Bonham on morrison-breaks-two-newspoll-records
• renew economy on west-australia-puts-community-batteries-at-top-of-new-energy- , roadmaphttps://reneweconomy.com.au/morrisons-flagship-energy-policies-and-private-investment-stuck-in-parliamentary-limbo- , neoen-mondo-plan-massive-600mw-victoria-big-battery-near-geelong
• Terry Hughes and Morgan Pratchett on we-just-spent-two-weeks-surveying-the-great-barrier-reef-what-we-saw-was-an-utter-tragedy
• Peter Whiteford on open-letter-to-the-prime-minister-extend-coronavirus-support-to-temporary-workers
• Alexander Saeri on more-australians-are-worried-about-a-recession-and-an-increasingly-selfish-society-than-about-coronavirus-itself
• Croaking Cassandra on guest-post-by-geof-mortlock-coronavirus-response, framing-an-economic-policy-response, central-bank-watch
• Stephen Hamilton et al on jobkeeper-is-quick-dirty-and-effective-there-was-no-time-to-make-it-perfect
• Jo-Cheong Tham on why-temporary-migrants-need-jobkeeper
• Rick Sarre on the-jury-may-be-out-on-the-jury-system-after-george-pells-successful-appeal
• Tony Blakely on yes-were-flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-but-modelling-needs-to-inform-how-we-start-easing-restrictions
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-a-lesson-from-game-theory-the-coronavirus-contrarians-ignore
• Darren Palmer on pandemic-policing-needs-to-be-done-with-the-publics-trust-not-confusion
• James Doughney on without-international-students-australias-universities-will-downsize-and-some-might-collapse-altogether
• Greg Jericho on morrison-talks-of-snapping-back-but-the-economic-recovery-from-coronavirus-will-be-slow
• Mark the Graph on a-back-of-envelope-model-for-flattening
• Dougal Sutherland on the-psychology-of-lockdown-suggests-sticking-to-rules-gets-harder-the-longer-it-continues

Northern America

• Zeeshan Aleem on navy-captain-fired-coronavirus-crozier
• The Grumpy Economist on what-shape-recovery
• Eric Kramer on trumps-blame-avoidance-is-politically-shrewd
• Roge Karma on coronavirus-covid-19-michael-lewis-the-fifth-risk-trump-administration-catastrophe
• Zach Beauchamp on coronavirus-trump-jared-kushner-peter-navarro-dunning-kruger
• Adam Serwer on the-plague-has-not-halted-trumps-power-grab
• Amy Davidson Sorkin on a-very-trumpian-response-to-the-uss-theodore-roosevelt-controversy
• John Cassidy on trumps-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-is-a-delusion-coronavirus 
• Open Mind on coronavirus-update-usa
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-inflation-at-2%
• the conversable economist on how-us-economy-pays-low-and-earns-high

Europe

• David Appell on deaths-coming-down-in-italy
• James Empty blog on are-we-achieving-suppression-in-uk
• Eric Shaw on keir-starmer-elected-as-labour-party-leader-so-who-is-he
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-its-long-past-time-for-a-eurozone-brady-plan
• Mainly Macro on who-still-thinks-austerity-was-good-idea

Asia

• Daniel Hurst on japanese-whaling-down-not-out
• Kirsten Han on covid-forces-singapore-confront-conditions-its-migrant-workers
• David Walton on japan-and-coronavirus-abe-needs-make-bold-decisions

Wonk

• Croaking Cassandra on the-oecd-stylised-estimates-of-direct-gdp-effects
• Barkley Rosser on the-d-word
• the conversable economist on patents-and-competition , are-atternative-work-arrangements-a-positive-alternative , some-coronavirus-pandemic-readings
• Alex Tabarrok on immunity-certificates-must-be-combined-with-variolation
• Ricardian Ambivalence on how-bad-is-the-cnv19-recession-going-to-be
• Richard Maude on post-covid-world-and-limits-america-first
• Pro Growth Liberal on remdesivir-and-transfer-pricing-iii
• stumbling and mumbling on weve-established-that-madam
• Max Walden on covid-19-refugees-risk
• James Empty blog on dumb-and-dumber
• Paul Glasziou and Chris Del Mar on should-everyone-be-wearing-face-masks-its-complicated
• Paul Fritjers on how-many-wellbys-is-the-corona-panic-costing
• Macro Musings on assorted-macro-musings
• Joseph Joyce on the-coming-debt-crisis
• Eric Lonergan on policy-response-updated
• Mark the Graph on the-covid19-exit-strategy

General

• Martin Sharpe on guide-to-the-classics-albert-camus-the-plague
• John Dickerson on remembering-john-prine

Climate

• Moyhu on march-global-surface-templs-down-0151-from-Frebruary
• Graham Readfearn on great-barrier-reefs-third-mass-bleaching-in-five-years-the-most-widespread-ever

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• toward-understanding-statistical-workflow
• interesting-y-axis
• career-advice-for-a-future-statistician
• pandemic-cats-following-social-distancing
• bda-free-bayesian-data-analysis-now-available-online-as-pdf
• the-generalizability-crisis-in-the-human-sciences
• big-trouble-coming-with-the-2020-census
• upholding-the-patriarchy-one-blog-post-at-a-time
• a-better-way-to-visualize-the-spread-of-coronavirus-in-different-countries
• statschat on axes-of-evil
• James empty blog on a-time-to-die
• Mark the Graph on pandas-dataframe-cheat-sheet-and-python
• Kaiser Fung on a-primer-to-understanding-statistical-models-such-as-the-oxford-coronavirus-study-4 , a-primer-to-understanding-statistical-models-such-as-the-oxford-coronavirus-study-5, a-primer-to-understanding-statistical-models-such-as-the-oxford-coronavirus-study-6 , wisconsin-votes-down-public-health-and-elects-voter-suppression

Retired genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Freakometrics on on the correlation between a continous and a categorical variable  
• Econometric Sense on statistics-is-way-of-thinking-not-just-a-box-of-tools

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• reading-about-ai
• experts-cant-live-with-them-cant-live-without-them
• Guardian on the-football-books-you-should-read-during-the-coronavirus-lockdown
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-14-the-weather-machine-by-andrew-blum
• Rosyln Petelin on book-review-the-dictionary-of-lost-words-by-pip-williams
• Tyler Cowen on new-books-of-note, fiction-and-classics-to-read-under-lockdown
• econjeff on book-wave-by-sonali-deraniyagala

vox wonk

• responses-consumption-and-prices-japan-covid-19-crisis-and-tohoku-earthquake
• legal-perspective-esm-loans-and-coronabonds
• responses-consumption-and-prices-japan-covid-19-crisis-and-tohoku-earthquake
• normality-extraordinary-monetary-reactions-huge-real-shocks
• data-needs-shutdown-policy
• will-inflation-make-comeback-after-crisis-ends
• expected-us-macroeconomic-performance-during-pandemic-adjustment-period
• german-division-and-reunification-and-effects-communism
• covid-19-omt-second-best-still-welcome
• corona-transfers-instead-coronabonds
• pandemic-solidarity-instrument-eu
• covid-19-economic-crisis-europe-needs-more-one-instrument
• economics-wage-compensation-and-corona-loans
• precarious-lives-syrian-refugees-turkey-corona-times
• european-economic-policy-covid-19-crisis-igm-forum-survey
• european-commission-s-sure-initiative-and-euro-area-unemployment-re-insurance
• fight-covid-pandemic-policymakers-must-move-fast-and-break-taboos
• prepare-large-wage-cuts-if-you-are-younger-and-work-small-firm
• esm-can-finance-covid-fight-now
• how-many-jobs-can-be-done-home
• plumbing-ideas-crisis-abatement
• rescuing-labour-market-times-covid-19-don-t-forget-new-hires
• economic-political-and-moral-case-european-fiscal-policy-response-covid-19
• mitigating-mass-layoffs-covid-19-crisis-austrian-short-time-model
• greater-trade-collapse-2020
• letter-governments-g20-nations
• disability-insurance-error-rates-and-gender-differences
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