Monday 20 May 2019

We do not know why Saturday night happened. Will we ever?

It is acknowledged by one and all that ALL the polling firms got it wrong badly wrong. Both published and party polls are included.

I think we can anticipate these firms will now get access to people's mobile phones for example although it is easy for people to avoid those calls. Why so? Because Political parties need accurate polling. We can also anticipate the media who pay for the public polls will demand action as well.
Both media companies and parties pay top dollar for these polls.

Another issue just as important is that focus group research or qualitative research is also affected. It is through focus groups parties enquire of the 'electorate of what are 'hot button' issues and then post-election why they either won or lost the election.
They select people from a representative sample and ask questions. They hope they get the right people. Confirmation is getting the same answers from all the groups.

However it is immediately apparent the polling disaster has blown all of this out of the water.
Worse still we have the blind leading the blind. People making confident assertions about the election without the slightest amount of evidence.

No-one but no-one knows why Saturday night occurred!!

It is going to make for an interesting three years to come

No comments:

Post a Comment