The Asian Cup

We start our defence of the Asian Cup on Sunday night.
Thus far we have had four friendlies. The first and last were useless.The  two in Australia against South Korea and Lebanon were  the opposite.

We go into the cup without Mooy our most creative player and also Leckie.

On balance the squad is competent with plenty of attacking options however there are still questions.

Why pick Milligan as a holding mid-fielder when he is likely to announce his retirement in international football after the tournament is over.
Kruse is a luxury we cannot afford. since his ACL he simply does not have the acceleration needed, he is tentative in front of goal and  has never been a great crosser of the ball.
Nabbout whilst fast does not have acceleration which is the quality needed in football. The defenders treated him with contempt in the World Cup. No defender gets tired ,physically or otherwise against him.

On the other hand Boyle and Mabil have shown themselves to be attacking players. Degenek has proved to be solid as a rock. If Sainsbury is back in form as it seems then the defence looks quite solid.

I doubt if we can win the cup again but the semi-finals does look beyond us. Watching Arnie in action when the pressure is on will be interesting

I am looking forward to Sunday

Know Your Subject

The terribly consistent Sinclair Davidson shows again he knows little what he writes about.

He makes a huge claim about John Howard. He claims Howard had a plan to become PM and a plan to be PM.
Really.
Oh dear I do remember the years after 1996 when Howard was PM. Most people thought was in over his head. He was now in a position way beyond his competency.
His government was continually criticised as a do nothing government. This eventually go to Howard after the BCA said this and he announced Australia would have a GST.

This lead to his government getting the lowest vote ever for a re-elected Government!

What a plan.
Did  he have a plan for becoming PM? Not in his last run as Opposition Leader. He was going nowhere and then Hewson lost the unlosable election and downer made a complete hash of being Opposition Leader.

you are right it is almost the New Year and there is little to write about!

Around the Traps 28/12/18 Christmas Edition

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on gcsb-china-and-a-craven-government, christmas-near-and-far
• Peter Gregory on when-a-fair-trial-could-be-at-risk-suppression-is-the-order-of-the-day
• Mark the Ballot on our-aggregation-remains-at-462-per-cent
• Kevin Bowman on new-south-wales-2019-battle-of-unknowns
• Ross Gittins on does-gift-giving-make-sense-silly-question
• Greg Jericho on come-election-2019-wage-growth-will-matter-more-to-voters-than-a-surplus
• Nick Gruen on deck-the-halls-of-academe-managerialism-product-placement-and-the-conversation-featuring-troppos-annual-christmas-competition

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on review-ten-economic-questions-for-2018, real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent-in-october
• Brad De Long on a-year-after-the-corporate-tax-cut
• Macro mania on does-fed-have-symmetric-inflation-target
• Barkley Rosser on the-last-adult-in-room-walks-out-over-ISIS
• New Deal Democrat on the-fed-scrapes-scylla-after-careening-into-charybdis
• long and variable on whatever-powell-says-the-fed-cant-avoid-taking-political-considerations-into-account
• popehat on alan-dershowitz-is-lying-to-you Thanks Brad
• Ernie Tedeschi on upshot/mystery-slow-wage-growth-econony Thanks Brad
• Tim Duy on markets-in-crisis-trump-has-damaged-the-fed Thanks Brad
• Eliza Griswold on evangelicals-of-color-fight-back-against-the-religious-right

Europe

• on christmas holiday

Asia

• Tyler Cowen on china-fact-day-9

Wonk

• Tim Harford on why-good-forecasters-become-better-people
• the conversable economist on real-vs-artificial-christmas-trees, charles-dickens-on-management-vs-labor, to-be-happy-at-home-is-ultimate-result
• Tyler Cowen on islam-compatible-free-market-capitalism-empirical-analysis-1970-2010
• Nick Gruen on peter-shergolds-foreword-to-my-submission-to-the-thodey-review
• Nendrik Bessembinder on do stocks outperform treasury bills Thanks Brad
• Yosha Mount and Jordan Kyle on what populists do to democracies

General

• Ari Mattes on the-year-in-film-from-witchy-hits-to-a-superhero-miss
• Alice Gorman on curious-kids-why-does-the-world-store-nuclear-waste-and-not-just-shoot-it-into-the-sun-or-deep-space
• Brian Resnick on jupiter-photos-juno-high-res-clouds-great-red-spot
• Julian Mathews on why-two-people-see-the-same-thing-but-have-different-memories
• the conversable economist on is-loneliness-rising

Climate

• David Appell on arctic-warming-1958-vs-2018
• Skeptical Science on 2018-hottest-la-nina-year-ever
• Open Mind on freezy-hot-climate-change
• science of doom on opinions-and-perspectives-1-the-consensus

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• carol-nickerson-explains-mysterious-diagrams-saying
• men-women-drop-labor-force-economists-ask-men
• thats-what-happens-when-you-elect
• june-is-applied-regression-exam-month
• thus-loss-aversion-principle-rendered-superfluous-account-phenomena-introduced-explain
• what-is-probability
• back-to-the-wall
• Mayo on tour-guide-mementos-from-excursion-3-tour-iii-capability-and-severity-deeper-concepts, excerpt-from-excursion-4-tour-i-the-myth-of-the-myth-of-objectivity-mayo-2018-cup

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• econometric sense on thinking-about-confidence-intervals

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-matter-of-england
• Ross Gittins on how-to-get-more-bang-from-your-bucks
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Liz Ellison on ten-great-australian-beach-reads-set-at-the-beach

vox wonk

• job-seeker-responses-wages-job-adverts
• why-children-teen-mothers-do-worse-life
• long-run-effects-same-race-teachers
• invisible-geniuses-advancement-knowledge-frontier
• how-future-work-may-unfold-demand-side-perspective
• decline-african-american-and-hispanic-wealth-great-recession
• equity-capital-inflows-corporate-financing-and-growth
• newcomer-ceos-performing-times-crisis

The last word on South Africa and Sandpapergate

We had interviews with both Bancroft and Smith last night on Foxsports.

The first thing I would ask is why would anyone believe them now when the lied previously.
however the main beef I have is does anyone really believe the bowlers knew sweet bugger all about what occurred.

The most inexperienced person is attempting to do something to the cricket ball. If he does not do it correctly then ball instead of reversing ( and remember reverse swing is very sharp and late) then ball goes gunbarrel straight.

The bowlers get no swing nor swerve thus it affects both fast and slow bowlers.

Not one journalist has asked about this!!!

The Third Test

The Boxing day test is almost iconic now here in OZ.
Unfortunately last year we got a terrible pitch. Indeed it was so bad I stopped watching.
We need pitched where bowlers are on top and gear innings are few and far between so they are great innings.
Thus far in Adelaide we had a test Australia should have won easily nut lost easily because of their batting. The Indian bowling was as good as the Aussies.
India lost the 2nd test comprehensive for two reasons.
1) For some inexplicable reason they picked Yadav who was a fast medium inaccurate outswing bowler.
2) Their openers failed badly again putting too much pressure on the middle order, Kholi in particular.
Australia has brought in Mitchell Marsh who is an allrounder. As Shame Warne would say he cannot bat ( except of roads) , he can't bowl and he cannot field. The Slips fieldsmen have a vulnerable look about them Not good if you have the attack we have. Just on that Starc to my mind was unimpressive in Perth. Only two decent inswingers all match.

India looks much better. The two openers are gawn.The batting looks much better or at worse as strong as in Perth but the bowling is a lot better.
If the only learn to bowl over the wicket and  and so create problems for the Aussie right handers  instead of bowling around the wicket and inviting Lyons to take more wickets they might do well.

Let us hope for a decent pitch and another enthralling match.

Comments at THIS blog

Some things about Christmas sucks

Come Christmas time there is nothing on either the radio or TV. I usually get out books from the library to read. I annually read Lord of the rings and first among equals over the period as well.

What I loathed as a child was dressing up on the day ( which was always stinking hot) in long cloths going to a relative's place and having to endure a hot dinner. It was the worst possible meal to have in Australia.
fortunately My wife feels the same way so we have salads and antipasto for lunch and then dive into an atlantic salmon  at dinner. I have found the perfect accompaniment to wash all this down with is a  moscato. My wife rarely drinks but does like white moscatos whereas I like red ones.

The other thing that stands out are the woeful Christmas songs and carols  played at the supermakets.  Aaagh!

Have an enjoyable Christmas!

Around the Traps 21/12/18

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on myefo-reveals-billions-more-in-revenue-9-billion-in-fresh-election-tax-cuts
• Tony Walker on morrisons-decision-to-recognise-west-jerusalem-the-latest-bad-move-in-a-mess-of-his-own-making
• Danielle Wood and Kate Griffiths on more-mirage-than-good-management-myefo-fails-to-hit-its-own-targets
• Croaking Cassandra on hyefu-bits-and-pieces, immigration-data-some-questions, the-tree-god-again, productivity-no-relief-in-the-hours-data, the-prc-the-pacific-and-new-zealand, productivity-failure-treasury-clearly-has-the-wrong-model,gcsb-china-and-a-craven-government
• Ross Gittins on the-truth-behind-mid-year-budget-update, how-to-keep-news-coming, how-we-killed-off-australias-inflation-problem
• Patricia Edgar on -kids-technology-and-the-future-the-programs-and-projects-children-want-to-see-part-2, kids-technology-and-the-future-the-case-for-regulation-of-australian-childrens-content-part-3
• Ross Garnaur et al on heres-a-long-term-budget-fix-that-would-boost-investment-replace-company-tax-with-cashflow-tax
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-2018-year-in-review
• Mtchael Grose and Lynette Bettio on state-of-the-climate-2018-bureau-of-meteorology-and-csiro
• Greg Jericho on the-government-has-been-hit-with-a-surplus-but-what-if-the-good-times-dont-last
• Peter Manning on how-access-journalism-is-threatening-investigative-journalism
• The Kouk on smoking-levels-continue-to-plummet

Northern America

• Progrowth liberal on rah-rah-economics
• Jeffrey Sachs on trump-war-on-huawei-meng-wanzhou-arrest Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on eg-kate-bahn-_understanding-the-importance-of-monopsony-power-in-the-us-labor-market, the-great-american-tax-heist-turns-one-live-at-project-syndicate
• Regulatory Review on ellig-economic-analysis-independent-agencies Thanks Mark
• Stephen Grenville on uschina-tensions-about-economics-or-security
• Menzie Chinn on yield-curve-inversions
• Nathaniel Rakich on how-red-state-democrats-became-an-endangered-species-in-the-senate
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-november-housing-starts, comments-on-november-existing-home-sales
• Mathew Yglesias on obamacare-unconstitutional-democracy-misha-tseytlin
• Sam Roggeveen on what-i-missed-2018-america-pushes-back, was-jim-mattis-really-last-adult-room
• Cornelia Tremann on new-us-africa-strategy-not-about-africa-it-s-about-china
• Robin Wright on is-trumps-plan-for-syria-a-withdrawal-or-a-surrender
• the conversable economist on can-earned-income-tax-credit-mostly-pay-for-itself
• Spencer England on stock-market-valuation-3
• Geoffrey Skelley on the-house-will-have-just-as-many-moderate-democrats-as-progressives-next-year
• Tim Duy on fed-hikes-rates-market-tumbles Thanks Brad
• Narayna Kochertlakota on the-fed-s-risky-plan-to-boost-unemployment Thanks Brad
• Mohamed A El-Erian on fed-rate-hike-powell-tries-to-balance-growth-and-volatility Thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on subsidized-employment-two-randomized-us-studies

Europe

• Thomas Piketty on yellow-vests-and-tax-justice Thanks Mark
• Mainly Macro on how-leavers-can-believe-that-peoples-vote-is-antidemocratic , how-brexit-circumvented-democracy
• Martina Lawless on economic-and-social-review-winter-2018
• long and variable on legitimacy-somersaults, kings-bloomberg-bloopers
• stumbling and mumbling on brexit-limits-of-empathy
• Robert Skidelksy on theresa-may-plan-only-way-out-of-brexit-agony Thanks Brad
• Karina Priser on europe-france-italy-immigration-border
• Mark Lilla on two-roads-for-the-new-french-right

Asia

• Antonio Fatas on how-low-is-low-for-chinese-gdp-growth Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on why-hasnt-china-needed-intervene-more-year Thanks Mark 
• Ramon Pacheco Pardo on moon-eurasia-opening-north-korea-serving-seoul-interests
• Alexander Davis on moon-eurasia-opening-north-korea-serving-seoul-interests
• Rodger Shanahan on what-happens-next-trumps-sudden-move-pull-us-troops-syria

Wonk

• Promarket on market-power-scale-economies , the-inequality-paradox-rising-inequalities-nationally-diminishing-inequality-worldwideThanks Mark
• Peter Dorman on neoliberalism-as-structure-and-ideology
• Economic Principals on how the press covered the panic of 2008 Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on delongs-principles-of-neoliberalism-thanks-to-miniver-cheevy-for-formatting-hoisted-from-the-archives-from-1999
• Scientific American on the-rise-of-knowledge-economics Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on when-bad-government-matters
• the conversable economist on the-diminution-of-welfare-as-anti-poverty-tool, tragedy-of-commons-50-years-later
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on navigating-in-cloudy-skies Thanks Mark
• Tim Harford on the-economists-guide-to-the-perfect-christmas
• Malcolm Jorgenson on international-law-cannot-save-rules-based-order
• Eric Lonergan on post-interest-rate-monetary-policy
• Frank Cilliffo and Sharon Cardarsh on whats-wrong-with-huawei-and-why-are-countries-banning-the-chinese-telecommunications-firm

General

• Language Log on language as a self-regulating system Thanks Mark
• Tyler Cowen on museum-bible-washington-d-c

Climate

• David Appell on forecasts-of-old-climate-models
• renew economy on grid-connection-biggest-concern-for-wind-solar-and-storage-projects
• and Then Theres Physics on there-was-no-pause-in-global-warming
• Open Mind on global-warmings-pretend-pause

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• advisor-disagree-carry-repeated-cross-validation-love-third-expert-opinion
• surprise-hacking-the-narrative-of-blindness-and-illusion-sells-and-therefore-continues-to-be-the-central-thesis-of-popular-books-written-by-psychologists-and-cognitive-scientists
• sociologists-bloggers-focus-negative-6-possible-explanations
• if-only-tucker-carlson-had-been-around-in-the-1950s-he-couldve-been-a-new-york-intellectual
• nudge-doesnt-work-medication-reminders-outcomes-myocardial-infarction
• exploring-model-fit-looking-histogram-posterior-simulation-draw-set-parameters-hierarchical-model
• causal-hype-ratchet
• Kaiser Fung on what-the-dear-tech-companies-article-says-about-predictive-algorithms , the-tradeoff-between-privacy-and-convenience
• Mayo on capability-and-severity-deeper-concepts-excerpts-from-excursion-3-tour-iii
• John Cook on multi-arm-randomised-trials

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on causality-as-robust-prediction

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-invisible-privatization

Vox wonk

• micro-responses-shocks-pricing-promotion-and-entry
• evolving-scope-and-content-central-bank-speeches
• new-evidence-potentially-harmful-effects-state-breakup
• demography-unemployment-and-automation
• impact-corporate-taxes-firm-innovation
• women-economics-stalled-progress
• assessing-optimality-corporate-short-termism
• manufacturing-decline-has-hurt-black-americans-more
• surprising-disparity-between-chinese-economy-and-chinese-economists
• short-term-rentals-and-housing-market
• partisan-professionals-evidence-credit-rating-analysts

The highly unimpressive Angus Taylor

Angus Taylor is the current energy minister.
He is very unimpressive. I heard him interviewed this morning on Radio National by the impressive Hamish McDonald.

One phrase he uses as does his dear leader is what is the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow?

This must be one of the most stupid statements made in modern polity.

Solar and wind farms exist or will exist in every state that is connected with the inter-connector.

Do these men actually believe on a certain days or various days the sun does not shine in every state? Are they wanting us to believe on a certain day or various days the wind isn't blowing in every state?

Moreover demand for electricity is highest on very hot days. These are the days we see units in coal powered power stations break down and solar power is at its peak.

Angus Taylor either does not know this which means he is ignorant or he does ( which is more likely given his body language and replies to questions) and therefore is misleading at best or lying at worst.

Poll roundup

Kevin Bonham writes on poll-roundup-2018-year-in-review.

It is a great  read as usual.

I would like to make one point.

It seems the Liberals are using gullible and  numerate journalists just like the ALP machine men did when they got rid of Rudd.

If the polls are saying 55-45 but 'in house' polling has the liberals  in much better terms in the 'marginal seats' then quite a lot of safe seats are vulnerable.

'Marginal seat' polling if it exists occurs in both parties by the parties surveying say 4 seats. each marginal seats would be surveyed for 400 people. If it is a random sample you could get a fair idea of what is going on overall.
You would not have a clue what is occurring in each seat.

I doubt very much if any polling took place.

MYEFO

The MYEFO was released yesterday.
I don't disagree with any a lot

• Danielle wood and Kate Griffiths
• Peter Martin
• Ross Gittins
• Greg Jericho
• Warren Hogan  This was written before the release.

A few comments. 

This Government came into Office and promptly put spending at levels not seen since the GFC. The ALP had succeeded in lowering spending after the GFC troubles. Keeping spending at high levels for no good reasons and then boasting about spending constraint seems quite catallaxian.

The improvement has all come from cyclical improvement in the budget. There have been few structural improvements.

Indeed they have mapped out tax cuts which they have not yet announced. This worsens the structural budget. As does the new spending measures.

We do not yet have the ALP policy measures but we do know they have structural measures to offset their spending measures.

A final note on the structural budget. Prior to the GFC the Irish budget documents had their structural budget deficit at 0.5% of GDP or a balanced budget. Once hit by the GFC this deficit rose quite significant. A rising tide increases the structural deficit. We saw this here as well!

Around the Traps 14/12/18

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on where-have-real-prices-risen-and-fallen ,the-china-council-disgraces-themselves-and-shames-us, human-rights-helen-clark-and-the-prc, encouraging-transparency-and-accountabilit, human-costs-of-big-dislocations, funding-the-reserve-bank-focus-on-your-statutory-mandate, the-china-council-takes-the-stage, bank-capital-proposals-a-few-initial-comments
• Tony Wood on newsflash-the-government-doesnt-need-to-break-up-power-companies-in-order-to-tame-prices-the-accc-says-so
• Sacha Molitorisz and Dereck Wilding on digital-platforms-why-the-acccs-proposals-for-google-and-facebook-matter-big-time
• Katherine Kemp on accc-wants-to-curb-digital-platform-power-but-enforcement-is-tricky
• Michael O'Neil on not-wiped-out-why-whyalla-of-all-places-now-has-a-sustainable-future
• Ben Phillips et al on cut-the-pension-boost-newstart-what-our-algorithm-says-is-the-best-way-to-get-value-for-our-welfare-dollars
• Dirk van Graver on disruptors-disrupted-australia-new-encryption-law
• Patricia Edgar on kids-technology-and-the-future-radical-revamp-needed-for-childrens-tv-content-quotas, kids-technology-and-the-future-technology-is-not-the-enemy-the-need-for-positive-media-literacy-part-1 thanks Nick Gruen
• Greg Jericho on housing-is-enough-of-a-worry-dont-scare-us-with-warnings-of-rising-interest-rates
• Peter McDonald on why-cutting-australias-migrant-intake-would-do-more-harm-than-good-at-least-for-the-next-decade
• Yee Fui Ng on the-proposed-national-integrity-commission-is-a-watered-down-version-of-a-federal-icac
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-no-joe-america-should-not-be-copying-australias-asset-recycling-misdirection
• Warren Hogan on mondays-myefo-will-look-good-but-it-will-set-the-budget-up-for-awful-trouble-down-the-track
• Dennis Muller on a-tale-of-two-media-reports-one-poses-challenges-for-digital-media-the-other-gives-abc-and-sbs-a-clean-bill-of-health
• Anja Hilkemeijer on in-long-awaited-response-to-ruddock-review-the-government-pushes-hard-on-religious-freedom

Northern America

• Tim Duy on unpleasant Thanks Brad
• Mathew Yglesias on john-kelly-resignation-chief-of-staff-legacy, mark-calabria-fhfa-trump-interest-rates
• James Hamilton on perspective-on-the-stock-market
• the conversable economist on us-health-and-healthcare-spending-in-the-last-25-years, us-income-inequality-through-prism-of-different-studies
• Robert Shiller on business/housing-boom-how-long-can-it-last Thanks Mark
• Garry Hufbauer and Jeffrey Schott on trade-investment-policy-watch/under-hood-usmca-downgrade-north-america Thanks Mark
• FRB Richmond on have yield inversions become more frequent Thanks Mark
• Amelia Thomson-Devaux on why-it-might-be-impossible-to-overturn-a-presidential-pardon
• Calculated Risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-during-presidential-terms , a-comment-on-professor-shillers-housing-article, key-measures-show-inflation-picked-up-slightly-in-november
• Kathy Gilsnan on trump-incorrectly-links-immigration-terrorism
• Adam Davidson on /swamp-chronicles/is-michael-cohens-three-year-sentence-a-good-deal-for-america
• Brad De Long on clinton-administration-vis-trump-administration
• Barkley Rosser on shiller-hystericizes-us-housing-market
• Nathaniel Rakich and Julia Wolfe on white-voters-without-a-degree-remained-staunchly-republican-in-2018
• Brink Lindsay et al on the center in an age of extremes Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-lesson-from-george-h-w-bushs-tax-reversal

Europe

• Brad De Long on why-doesnt-italy-have-better-options
• Mainly Macro on mps-need-to-get-real-about-brexit, are-labour-leadership-attitudes-to-brexit-just-the-austerity-story-all-over-again
• Chris Bertram on britain-convicts-human-rights-defenders-of-terrorism-offence
• stumbling and mumbling on a-behavioural-economic-case-for-brexit
• long and variable on why-brexit-is-so-much-more-problematic-than-the-financial-crisis-of-2008
• Tyler Cowen on macron-new-ideas-save-moment
• Tim Quinn on theresa-may-defeats-brexit-plotters-heres-what-happens-now

Asia

• Kerry Brown on xi-jinping-2018-any-closer-truth
• David Appell on indias-clean-energy-efforts-are-very-impressive
• Larry Summers on can-anything-hold-back-chinas-economy Thanks Mark
• Joseph Gagnon on abenomics-working-dont-stop-now Thanks Mark
• Elliot Zaagman on china-tantrum-diplomacy-huawei

Wonk

• Tim Harford on messy-desks-and-benign-neglect-allow-ideas-to-grow
• Macro mania on working-more-for-less
• Branko Milanovic on why-inequality-matters Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on blind-to-luck, brexits-irrelevant-cost
• Jeffrey Frankel on jeffrey-frankel-gopinath-follows-obstfeld-at-the-imf-in-a-great-tradition
• the conversable economist on the-diminution-of-welfare-as-anti-poverty-tool, economic-effects-of-islam
• Nick Gruen on the-future-of-politics-by-john-burnheim
• Saiah Lee on guest-contribution-monetary-policy-under-data-uncertainty

General

• Brad De Long on blogging-what-to-expect-here
• Bronwen Neil on blowing-up-the-parthenon-the-power-of-a-symbol
• Mark Hemer on curious-kids-how-does-the-moon-being-so-far-away-affect-the-tides-on-earth
• Open Mind on tis-the-season-for-sea-ice

Climate

• Umair Irfan on greenland-ice-melt-sea-level-climate-change
• desmog on trump-carbon-capture-storage-coal-dream-dead
• Jack Pezzey on we-cant-know-the-future-cost-of-climate-change-lets-focus-on-the-cost-of-avoiding-it-instead
• Peter Sinclair on arctic-report-card-2018
• and Then Theres Physics on five-dimensions-of-climate-science-reductionism
• Open Mind on arctic-hockey
• the conversable economist on is-carbon-capture-and-storage-on-verge

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• footnote-global-warming
• concerned-mrp-estimates-used-later-analyses-maybe-recommend-checking-using-fake-data-simulation
• prior-distributions-covariance-matrices
• recommendations-useful-priors-datasets-small
• time-series-of-democratic-republican-vote-share-in-house-elections
• oh-hate-work-criticized-case-fails-attempted-replications-original-researchers-dont-even-consider-possibility-maybe-original-work-w
• couple-thoughts-regarding-hot-hand-fallacy-argument
• Kaiser Fung on purdues-math-data-science-and-industry-conference
• statschat on is-90-accuracy-a-lot ,or-youll-go-blind

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on more-on-google-dataset-search

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• too-big-full-stop
• Tyler Cowen on who-read-what-in-2018

Vox wonk

• markets-banks-and-shadow-banks
• leverage-induced-fire-sales-and-stock-market-crashes
• how-conflict-disrupts-economy
• labour-market-flexibility-during-financial-crises
• rise-intangible-income-global-value-chain-perspective
• regulating-lending-based-crowdfunding-platforms
• automation-and-unemployment-help-way
• micro-impact-macroprudential-policies
• news-does-explain-yield-curve-changes
• driving-uks-capita-carbon-dioxide-emissions-below-1860-levels
• job-displacement-family-dynamics-and-spousal-labour-supply
• labour-past-present-and-future-trilemma-china
• threats-chinese-and-us-commercial-interests-aren-t-different
• disclosure-sludges-and-cashback-mortgage-market
• credit-mechanics-precursor-current-money-supply-debate

The Second Test

After a test that India won easily but should have lost easily we come to Perth with promises of a fast bouncy pitch.

Firstly what did we learn from Adelaide apart it was a bad cricket pitch. The Indian bowlers performed better than the highly rated Aussie bowlers.
Bumrah was easily the most consistently fastest bowler. Both bowling Sharma and Ashwin were far better bowlers than in previous visits.
On the Aussie side Starc ( who was actually a wicket-keeper for Berala in the Junior comp I coached in ) was bad again. He has not bowled well or been quick since the first test in Durban. his inswinger ( his most deadly weapon) is not looking good. On the other hand Hazelwood, Cummins and Lyons are all bowling well.

Secondly will India bat as extravagantly again in both innings? you would have to say there is a lot more potential in the Indian batting lineup that the Aussie one.

Back on the Indian bowlers. Why oh why do they bowl over the wicket? They essentially bowl a straight ball then. none has significant swing or  cut which makes lefthanders squirn when facing. They also cut up the pitch for Lyons to bowl at their righthanders. bowling over the wicket means a better angle and thus more possible slip catches as well as cutting up the pitch for Ashwin!  If you can swing the ball in to lefthanders as Shami clearly can you swing it more and later if you bowl over the wicket . This almost dissipates when you bowl around the wicket!

Assuming the hype is correct then it becomes a battle of the pace attacks. Which attack has recovered from the high temperatures of Adelaide?
Also important here is this might suit some batsman. I can't get batting Sharma out of my head here despite thinking it should be Kholi,

Remember too He knows three more draws and India win the series in Australia for the first time.

The worst thing about Perth.
Cricket Australia who put no money into the new stadium has determined in Australia of all places people cannot sit in the shade


Sorry but I forgot the link to After Grog blog Cricket

Macron is not looking good.

Macron came in a reform minded President.
Nothing wrong with that indeed France needs that HOWEVER he made two mistakes.

• The first is we saw way back in 2012 you move on labour market de-regulation when the economy is strong not weak.
• The second is a very french mistake. You know the best solution but you do not explain the policy and certainly not the benefits of the policy. The people must simply comply with the policy. Politicians of every colour and hue in France do this and demonstrations are the result, often quite violent and sometimes some politicians no longer have their jobs. It is bad for democracy.

Macron won because of his opponent . He is like Trump very vulnerable at the next Presidential election.

Here is Tyler Cowen.

The break up of Electricity Companies

Been a bit crook and even missed some of the test cricket.

Tony wood of the admirable Grattan Institute makes a number of good points in THIS article.

He neglects the issue of sovereign risk, He also does not discuss whether the private sector should be involved in the electricity industry. given it is an essential industry it is a textbook case of an industry should have NEVER been privatised and has been text book case of a complete and utter failure.

The only reason why the industry is not nationalised is because the States cannot afford it.

Around the Traps 7/12/18

It is time for Around The Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on thoughts-as-the-immigration-data-disappear, promoting-constructive-vigilance, un-compact-on-migration, i-didnt-move-to-australia-my-bank-came-to-me, abdicating-a-basic-responsibility, dont-legislate-depositor-preference
• Aleesha Rodriguez on happy-birthday-sas-big-battery-and-many-happy-returns-of-your-recyclable-parts
• Katherine Gerber and Luke McNamara on why-australias-anti-vilification-laws-matter
• Samantha Hepburn on adanis-new-mini-version-of-its-mega-mine-still-faces-some-big-hurdles
• Rodger Shanahan on veterans-fight-back-against-marketing-enemy-gates
• Ross Gittins on budget-office-finds-bigger-picture-is-looking-ok
• Michele Grattan on liberals-adopt-new-rule-to-stop-the-revolving-prime-ministership
• Andrew Markus on australians-think-immigration-should-be-cut-well-it-depends-on-how-you-ask
• Greg Jericho on there-is-no-way-we-will-meet-our-paris-targets-and-the-coalition-couldnt-care-less, is-australia-facing-a-lost-decade-in-living-standards
• Darren Palmer on victorian-royal-commission-into-policing-needs-to-take-a-broad-approach-heres-why
• Roger Dargaville et al on making-australia-a-renewable-energy-exporting-superpower
• Mark the Ballot on steady-as-she-goes-coalition-on-46.2%
• Ricardo Ambivalence on aussie-gdp-boom-revised-away
• The Kouk on business-investment-in-recession-with-two-quarters-of-decline , change-of-view-on-monetary-policy, don-t-fall-for-the-spin-scott-morrison-s-budget-surplus-is-no-certainty
• Bruce Mountain and Steven Perry on the-verdict-is-in-renewables-reduce-energy-prices-yes-even-in-south-australia
• Jessica Richards and Keith Parry on australians-love-their-sport-but-investing-in-new-venues-is-another-matter
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-35-extraordinary-years-what-the-float-of-australian-dollar-bought-us

Northern America

• Kori Schake on america-vs-west
• David Appell on right-wing-vs-left-wing-domestic-terrorism
• the conversable economist on unauthorized-immigrants-to-us-continues-to-decline, excavating-layers-of-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-of-2017, us-not-source-of-chinas-growth
• Macromania on does-floor-system-discourage-bank, working-more-for-less
• Tyler Cowen on trade-war-china
• Kruggers on climate-denial-trump-gop. Thanks Mark
• Joseph Gagnon on feds-policy-implementation-framework Thanks Mark
• FRBSF on review-of-unconventional-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
• Alex Ward on jamal-khashoggi-saudi-arabia-mbs-corker-graham-trump
• Nate Silver on how-fivethirtyeights-2018-midterm-forecasts-did
• Brendan Taylor on us-prevent-china-dominated-asia
• Brad De Long on four-components-of-multiplier-driving-spending
• stumbling and mumbling on chaos-under-ed-miliband
• Krisnadev Calamur and Kathy Gilsanan on republican-senators-white-house-saudi-arabia
• Mathew Yglesias on weekly-standard-neoconservatives-trump-iraq-casualties
• 538 on trump-is-really-popular-in-rural-areas-other-places-not-so-much

Europe

• Mainly Macro on experts and elites ,helping-left-behind-its-economic-geography-stupid
• stumbling and mumbling on changing-the-agenda, a-behavioural-economic-case-for-brexit
• Robert Waldmann on i-actually-really-disagree-with-paul-krugman-this-time
• Victor Abrahamwicz on violence-confusion-and-conspiracy-theories-kerch-strait
• Kruggers on brexit-borders-and-the-bank-of-england-wonkish Thanks Mark
• Tyler Cowen on why-brexit-is-so-important

Asia

• Robert E Kelly on why-denuclearisation-less-important-south-korea
• The Grumpy Economist on summers-on-china, sumner-on-china-trade-in-ideas
• Tyler Cowen on scott-sumner-china

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-what-are-the-drivers-of-tfp-growth-an-empirical-assessment
• Luiz Gomez Romero on lopez-obrador-takes-power-in-mexico-after-an-unstable-transition-and-broken-campaign-promises
• Merriden Varrall on xi-trump-g20-tariff-truce
• Cassandras Legacy on the-6-most-stubborn-fake-news-in-history
• Robert Waldmann on a-micro-founded-model-in-which-trade-causes-higher-productivity-growth
• James Hamilton on measuring-monetary-policy-shocks
• Tim Harford on the-untold-career-value-of-a-little-bit-of-luck
• Understanding Society on is-corruption-social-thing, exercising-governments-will Thanks Mark
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on e-pluribus-unum-single-vs-multiple-point-of-entry-resolution Thanks Mark
• Promarket on antitrust-in-a-changing-economy-and-changing-economics Thanks Mark
• Justin Fox on freelance-economy-is-both-old-and-young-big-and-small Thanks Mark
• Barkley Rosser on mourning-death-of-new-world-order
• Nick Rowe on explaining-si-inventories-vs-adding-up-individuals
• Tobias Renkin et al on the pass through of minimum wages into US retail prices Thanks Brad

General

• David Blair on new-detections-of-gravitational-waves-brings-the-number-to-11-so-far
• Elisa Palazzo on design-for-flooding-how-cities-can-make-room-for-water

Climate

• Edward Morgan et al on as-they-meet-in-poland-for-the-next-steps-nations-are-struggling-to-agree-on-how-the-ambitions-of-the-paris-agreement-can-be-realised
• and Then Theres Physics on the-plausibility-of-rcp8-5, between-conflation-and-denial
• Moyhu on november-ncepncar-global-surface-anomaly-down-0.1222C-from-October, november-global-surface-templs-down-0,161C-from-september
• Skeptical Science on SkS_Analogy_16_Arctic_ice_sailboat_keels_wild_weather
• Pep Canadell on carbon-emissions-will-reach-37-billion-tonnes-in-2018-a-record-high
• Giles Parkinson on how-the-tesla-big-battery-became-the-heartbeat-of-australias-main-grid, why-coal-and-not-renewables-is-root-cause-of-surging-australia-power-prices
• David Appell on edward-tellers-1959-warning-about-global-warming, 2018s-co2-increase-is-27-over-2017s
• Open Mind on cooling-down-the-what

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• p-value-4-76x10%E2%88%92264
• bayes-statistics-reproducibility-many-serious-problems-statistics-practice-arise-bayesian-inference-not-bayesian-enough-frequentist-evaluation-not-frequentist
• statistical-insights-into-public-opinion-and-politics-my-talk-for-the-columbia-data-science-society-this-wed-9pm
• niall-ferguson-perils-playing-audience
• parable-regarding-changing-standards-presentation-statistical-evidence
• Latour Sokal NYT
• statschat on margin-of-error
• Mayo on first-look-at-n-p-methods-as-severe-tests-water-plant-accident-exhibit-i-from-excursion-3

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• december-reading-for-econometricians
• No Hesitations on dual-regression-and=prediction

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on fanfare-classical-music-meta-list-favorite-classical-music-year, mostly-returned-books

Vox wonk

• japan-s-age-wave-challenges-and-solutions
• inheritance-taxation-and-wealth-effects-labour-supply-heirs
• going-extra-mile-distant-lending-and-credit-cycles
• macroeconomic-benefits-gender-diversity
• challenges-manufacturing-workers-wake-globalisation
• socioeconomic-and-gender-dimensions-inequality-life-expectancies-across-europe
• impact-eu-s-free-movement-people-principle-migration
• drivers-commodity-price-booms-and-busts-long-run
• case-central-fiscal-capacity-emu

The First Test Cometh

It really is not summer until the first test of cricket.

Why is the first test at Adelaide which has a just reputation for roads,

Why is it not in Brisbane which is the best cricket wicket in Australia. If you want to boost test cricket then use the best pitches!!
Moreover batsmen from overseas would find batting on the Brisbane pitch quite hard. It hopefully would have a greenish tinge in it, the ball should swing around and because of its wonderful bounce spinners get a go as well.

Let us go back o Adelaide. If it is the dreaded road then viewers will turn off in droves. The only positive vibe I can get is scores in the Sheffield Shield have not been that high. My problem with that is batting is not of a high quality though. Temperatures of 39 degrees C means a pitch that will spin on the last day

Looking at both sides and IF we get a contest between bat and ball then we have proven batsmen of the Indians against the best bowling lineup at test level.We also get a soso bowling lineup against a poor batting lineup. Two things here. Starc has not been the bowler he was of late. We need to see him bowl fast and swing the ball. I am also wary of Starc and Cummins breaking down more so if we bowl first when it is so hot.

If the pitch is a road then the toss will decide the test like in India. The teams that bats first get such a large total the team batting second because they are mentally gone. If India bat second they might draw it if Kholi is on fire and makes a double ton.

If it is a good pitch that is we get a contest between bat and ball the test could be a beauty. We should remember Pakistan beat us merely because Abbas bowled within the corridors of uncertainty alah glen McGrath. Ashwin has never had a good tour here because he bowls too quickly and does not use flight enough.He will spin it on the last day if he is bowling however.As we saw in England the Indian fast bowlers can swing the ball late so if the ball swings look out.

I am not as pessimistic as others for Australia. We are playing in our backyard. The pitches are unlikely to help bowlers unfortunately and we have a great attack.

In the end the series will be determined by which group performs better the Indian bowlers or the Aussie batsmen.
At least Mitchell Marsh is not playing in Adelaide although as my youngest son said he will still get a duck as 12th man!

Go to aftergrogblog.blogs.comcricket for some strong views on the match.

Very Fast Trains in Australia are a pipe dream.

We had yet another announcement yesterday from the NSW government of a VFT essentially for country and regional services.

It aint gonna work.

Why not. Well let me go back a long time when I did work for Cityrail as it was known then.
The XPT can only get to half it highest speed when in use at BEST. Why. Because of the track.

So any sort of very fast train would need brand spanking new tracks that go straight. That means buying up a lot of land for a start.
Next let us go to the customer base. Guess who use the XPT services by far the most? Pensioners who essential pay diddly squat for using the service. They visit their children in the bid smoke and then go back home.
It is highly ironic that a luxury bus service would cost less and get there faster than the XPT.

If you are going to create a newer customer base you would need much better track and varied times as the logical new base are people who live outside Sydney but work there.

This would create further pressures on housing prices in the Western suburbs as they would fall and people buy up in areas where they could catch the VFT.

Another problem is you could not have many stations for the said train to stop at otherwise it simply would not be fast.

In essence the NSW government would be subsiding people who live out of Sydney to work in Sydney as this service would never cover its costs.

Now I have only touched the surface but you can see a lot of problems. This explains why we have had so many announcements on such a project in NSW before anyone has looked at its viability.

Why is the fiscal policy being shown the wrong way.

We are in debt again to Ross Gittins. He is again on the case of examining fiscal policy on the basis of accrual accounting not cash accounting. This is probably because he is a former charted Accountant.

The PBO has done the legwork for us. They have to as you will only find cash accounting in commonwealth budget documents.
It is entirely misleading.
As the PBO shows us the future is looking good.
so why are officials not giving us the Budget in accrual accounting terms.

My guess is because they think their political masters will think there is no more work to do. Keeping cash accounting enables Treasury to say to Ministers they have to do more.

The Liberals adopt a bad rule.

Michele Grattan tells us of the Liberals essentially adopting ALP policy making almost impossible to topple a Prime Minister.
Why is this bad policy?

The Liberals under Tony Abbott and the ALP under Julia Gillard were heading for political oblivion. not getting rid of either would have been a disaster for either party.
It is stupidity of the highest order to maintain a leader who is heading for a disaster.