David Beckworth on paul krugman on temporary vs permanent monetary injections

David Beckworth of Macro Musings fame has written this fascinating and thought provoking article.
It isn't too large so you can read it , cogitate on it and enjoy it.

As an added bonus here on a related matter  is Jim Hamilton of Econbrowser fame  on a-skeptical-view-of-the-impact-of-the-feds-balance-sheet

The budget is improving, maybe

Via the Kouk it appears the budget bottom line is improving.
He thinks the deficit could fall to $15 B. Thus the deficit falls from 1.1% of GDP to 0.8% of GDP.  The deficit on an accruals base is around -  0.5% of GDP Most economists would say it is in balance  when it is + or - 0.5% of GDP so at present we are almost there.

A few points

• All the improvement roughly has come from Receipts.
• Al the improvement has come from the cyclical side of the budget not the structural side!
• the budget was in balance on an accruals based system which IMHO is the only was to look at the budget which means it was in balance.
• The projections will be healthier and thus look forward to some spending proposals  from a government likely to lose an election and from an opposition not wanting to lose at the wrong time in the business cycle!

You cut the Structural deficit as quick or as low as Nominal GDP is rising. Now is the time to start on reducing it without much affect on the overall economy.

The Arctic, hot temperatures etc

There are a number of articles dealing with the arctic and how it is warming.
So here are a few

• Arctic Sea Ice and This before
• Peter Sinclair
• David Appell
• Umair Irfan
• Jonathan Watts

This is related sorta.

Giving teachers guns is madness

Typical of Donald Trump he made a statement after yet another gun,massacre that all is needed is for teachers to carry guns and use them against anyone who shoots at High Schools.

Okay I have asked some people who should know and believe teachers would have to practice weekly to be effective against anyone shooting anyone.
Teachers already have a large workload and when could they find the time for this.
Even if they found the time to be a 'crackshot' would they have the 'ticker' to go up against a man with an assault weapon. Clearly the person with this responsibility at the Florida high school lost his nerve, Why would he. A revolver against an assault weapon??

Clearly the USA should outlaw assault weapons. They are not used for hunting they are used to kill people.

The irony here is people die from guns mainly because people who suicide use them and rarely fail.

update:

This is useful

Around the Traps 23/2/18

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on retired-politicians-in-demand , other-people-oia-the-reserve-bank-too , hankering-for-normalisation, we-could-be-the-next-albania-brady , advocating-for-the-cptpp , the-boondoggle
• Hedda Ransan-Cooper on teslas-virtual-power-plant-might-be-second-best-to-real-people-power
• Ross Gittins on unions-play-their-cards-wrong-in-hopes-of-higher-pay, governments-only-pretending-to-fix-Murray Darling
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-barnaby-1-momentum-0
• Qamar Schuler et al on deposit-schemes-reduce-drink-containers-in-the-ocean-by-40
• Greg Jericho on we-cant-take-on-any-more-debt-so-what-else-will-drive-the-economy , the-imf-doesnt-share-the-governments-heroic-growth-prediction
• The Piping Shrike of retail
• Press Gallery Reform on what-conservative-triumph-looks-like
• Johan Lidberg on a-public-broadcaster-that-bows-to-political-pressure-isnt-doing-its-job
• Fabrizio Carmignani on factcheck-are-around-5-000-jobs-at-risk-if-pokies-are-removed-from-pubs-and-clubs-in-tasmania 
• Mark the Ballot on polling-update
• The Kouk on when-next-for-the-aussie-dollar , could-tax-cuts-threaten-our-aaa-credit-rating
• Euan Graham on seven-quick-takeaways-julie-bishop-speech-king-college-london
• Harry Clarke on abbott-on-immigration
• Farbrizio Camignani on there-isnt-solid-research-or-theory-to-support-cutting-corporate-taxes-to-boost-wages
• John Quiggin on the-vocational-education-disaster
• Michael Slezak on tesla-battery-taking-straw-off-camels-back-for-sa-energy-demand

Northern America

• Brian De Lay on the-american-public-has-power-over-the-gun-business-why-doesnt-it-use-it
• Sandeep Gopalan on the-first-charges-over-russian-involvement-in-the-us-election-have-been-laid-are-there-more-to-come
• Andrew Prokop on russia-indictments-mueller-internet-research-agency
• Progrowth liberal on a-critical-review-of-jeffrey-mirons-call-to-slash-entitlements
• Kruggers on opinion/trumps-twin-deficits-wonkish Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on trumps-tax-success-expense-his-trade-agenda Thanks Mark 
• Branko Milanovic on fake-news-reaction-to-end-of-monopoly Thanks Mark 
• Macro mania on us-gdp-expenditure-components , the-recession-of-2012-13-and-taper-tamptrum
• Robert Waldmann on confessions-of-a-late-to-the-party-russiagate-non-skeptic
• Zach Beauchamp on trump-russia-social-media-indictment-lies
• Tim Duy on inflation-general-data-flow-fiscal-stimulus-and-implications-for-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
• Eduardo Porter on recession-safety-net Thanks Mark
• FRBSF on do-job-market-networks-help-recovery-from-mass-layoffs Thanks Mark 
• Emily Witt on how-the-survivors-of-parkland-began-the-never-again-movement
• Menzie Chinn on cyclically-adjusted-primary-balance-post-tax-cut-spending-bill
• Brad De Long on does-this-belong-in-the-next-edition-of-martha-olneys-and-my-_macroeconomics_-textbook-box-446-estimating-the-effect-of-the-longrun-effects-of-tax-cuts
• Scott Lucas on why-its-so-hard-to-make-sense-of-trumps-foreign-policy
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-january-existing-home
• German Lopez on trump-guns-florida-shooting-background-check
• Dan Rodrik on populism-new-deal Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on mapping-capital-flows-us-over-last-thirty-years Thanks Mark
• Liberty Street on just-released-puerto-rico-and-the-us-virgin-islands-after-hurricanes-irma-and-maria Thanks Mark
• Tara Isabella Burton on billy-graham-religious-leader-evangelical-america
• The conversable economist on a-grasshopper-view-2018-economic-report-of-the-president
• Perry Bacon on why-trump-isnt-taking-democrats-offer-for-a-wall
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fedspeak-and-the-january-fomc-minutes
• JM Opal on u-s-gun-violence-is-a-symptom-of-a-long-historical-problem
• Brad Setser on counting-chickens-long-they-hatch-should-hurricane-maria-be-modeled-positive-growth-shock Thanks Mark
• Mathew Yglesias on trump-cpac-2018-speech

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on labour-and-the-customs-union , stable-exploitation
• Mainly Macro on house-prices-and-rents-in-uk , why-is-government-making-such-mess-of-brexit , the-persuasive-power-of-uk-right-wing-press
• David Ritchie on france-more-bucks-your-bang

Asia

• Robert Huish on north-korean-sport-diplomacy-the-olympic-event-where-everyone-loses
• Sam Roggeveen on china-and-military-balance
• Amir Tibon on benjamin-netanyahu-mozes-adelson-israel-media-bribery
• Brendan Thomas-Noone on doklam-india-rivalry-china-mountains-sea

Wonk

• Eliza Wu on explainer-what-are-credit-ratings-and-why-do-they-matter
• Tim Harford on the-case-for-ending-amazons-dominance
• Greg Mankiw on business/trump-economists-trade-tariffs Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on when-the-impartial-spectator-is-missing 
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on the-stubbornly-high-cost-of-remittances Thanks Mark
• Uneasy Money on milton-friedmans-rabble-rousing-case-for-abolishing-the-fed
• Menzie Chinn on interest-differentials-and-exchange-rate-changes-before-and-after-the-global-crisis , the-world-wide-fama-puzzle-reversal
• Henry Farrell on the-father-of-consumer-sovereignty
• The Conversable Economist on some-patterns-for-same-sex-households , brainstorming-anti-poverty-programs , some-thoughts-about-economic-exposition-in-maths-and-words
• Microeconomic Insights on absolute-poverty-necessity-displaces-desire Thanks Mark
• John Konlos on the economic roots of Trumpism Thanks Mark
• Lorenzo on a-misconceived-attack-on-libertarianism
• Nick Gruen on bootstrapping-capital-adequacy
• Brad De Long on paul-krugman-looks-back-at-the-last-twenty-years-of-the-macroeconomic-policy-debate

General

• Indi Hodgson-Johnston on collaborating-with-china-in-antarctica
• Elizabeth Shi on what-happens-when-employees-are-fired-for-complaining-at-work
• Caillan Davenport and Shushma Malik on mythbusting-ancient-rome-did-christians-ban-the-ancient-olympics
• Craig Barker on friday-essay-the-erotic-art-of-ancient-greece-and-rome
• Martino Demura et al on giant-handaxes-suggest-that-different-groups-of-early-humans-coexisted-in-ancient-europe

Climate

• Regulatory Review on segall-hults-leading-climate-every-level Thanks Mark
• The Conversable Economist on pollutant-taxes-on-energy-why-so-focused-on-roads
• Open Mind on us-warmhole
• Cassandras Legacy on islands-not-sinking-climate-change
• Skeptical Science on pollen-data-humans-reversed-cooling , why-antarctica-so-important
• Bradley Eyre on our-acid-oceans-will-dissolve-coral-reef-sands-within-decades
• Arctic Sea Ice on global-sea-ice-records-broken-yet-again
• Real Climate on rideau-canal-skateway
• and Then There Physics on climate-hawks

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• curse-dimensionality-finite-vs-asymptotic-convergence-results
• of-rabbits-and-cannons
• bob-likes-big-audience
• low-power-replication-crisis-learned-since-2004-1984-1964
• graphs-tell-story-now-want-fit-story-bigger-framework-makes-sense
• zoologist-slams-statistical-significance
• deeper-democracy-legitimacy-challenging-brexits-majoritarian-mandate
• data-concerns
• anybody-want-drink-war
• rasmussen-williams-never-said-gaussian-processes-resolve-problem-overfitting
• Rick Wicklin on a-monte-carlo-algorithm-to-estimate-a-median
• Junkcharts on why-line-charts-are-better-than-area-charts
• John Cook on fibonacci-binomial-coefficient-identity

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• No Hesitations on more-on-neural-nets-and-ml

Dianne Coyle (quirky+ book reviews)

• politics-and-numbers
• New Deal Democrat onfour-biographies-for-presidents-day
• stumbling and mumbling on hired-a-review
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , quinn-slobodians-globalists

Vox wonk

• market-incentives-job-search-models
• effectiveness-branded-search-ads
• growth-equity-trade-offs-structural-reforms
• link-between-us-pay-and-productivity
• bank-bail-ins-lessons-cypriot-crisis
• financing-intangible-capital
• foreign-exchange-interventions-frequent-and-effective
• cv-elements-will-get-you-job-interview

A Few Things

SHETLAND just finished its 3rd season on the ABC. It was an absolute ripper. Take out the one obvious clanger in it the season was fantastic.

Billy Graham died. A wonderful Evangelist. A pity some journos did not know of him sharing platforms with Martin Luther King. His crusades allowed any people in . Colour, culture et al did not matter. all that mattered was that people got to hear how Jesus saved people! Yes he got wood-ducked by Nixon but he was not on his pat malone on that. THIS is very good

Tony Burke is being brought up by some in government as the 'Barnaby Joyce 'affair continues to linger.  I am no fan of burke as I have outlined previously however there are significant differences. Burke left his wife and began his affair with his now wife about TWO years after she left his office. So either he either different to joyce or a far better politician than joyce because there is no smoking gun to show he was lying to everyone like Joyce, He also did not uproot his family and move interstate only to leave them. He also was never a person who promoted 'traditional family values' or the 'institution of marriage'

Yet again Hamish McDonald has presented the Radio National breakfast program. He is simply so much better than Fran Kelly. He asks far better questions and appears to be better informed on most but not all subjects. Make him the permanent host.

Tony Abbott maybe right says Harry Clarke

The link between Productivity and Pay in the USA

IF Mark Thoma links this paper it must be good and as usual Mark is correct.

Ana Stansbury and Larry Summers are the authors of this thought provoking paper which Brad De Long has a few ( very few) comments on this as well.

Let us not get overly sentimental over the ALP Government led by Bob Hawke

Before I start this rant I should say Bob Hawke is possibly the best PM we have ever had and his cabinet the same.Sunday night was the last episode looking at Bob Hawke as PM.
I'm sorry but I was not impressed. I was around at the time.
When the ALP won they had no plan indeed no idea of the major problems affecting the Australian economy.
It was only after deregulating the banking sector and floating of the dollar that the Government started to do radical things the economy needed.
No-one at the time thought his cabinet was made up of outstanding individuals. Only Paul Keating  had it all over his government opponent however that was not the case once he was given Treasury. He took a long time to get on top of treasury matters ( probably about a year into government).
I can still remember reading Max Walsh in the AFR writing about how new Government looked overwhelmed and  unimpressive.
What made Hawke a great PM for someone who was almost ( I did say almost) Trump like in telling people about how much he knew about various things was he was a great chairman. HE had confidence in his cabinet ministers and that gave them confidence to do positive things.

He and his Cabinet could change very quickly if circumstances demanded it and it did. When the Dollar looked as though it was in free fall His government produced policies that were good for the economy but were unpopular electorally. They tightened up the means tests for government payments, they reduced tariffs considerably, are just two good examples of this.
I am tired about hearing about Hawke's compassion. Do people not member what he said about Vietnamese refugees when Fraser and only Fraser allowed them to come to Australia?

Personally I found Hawke a very unimpressive individual. He was a very short man ,shorter than John Howard yet no-one ever said little Bobby Hawke.
If John Howard was a boring individual at least he allowed you to talk about various things, with Hawke it was all about Hawke.

Barnaby Joyce's position is untenable

Barnaby Joyce is the leader of the National party formerly the Country party.

One of the main planks of the party is the upholding of traditional family values and thus the sanctity of marriage.

We now have the spectacle of the leader of the party showing scant regard in fact no regard at all for these values.

During the course of his adulterous affair he lied to  his wife, daughters, Prime Minister and of course his own electorate.

This means the National party owns his affair and his values ( or lack of them.) This is the great difference between him and the ALP's Tony Burke. Burke didn't stand for family values ( nor did he uproot his family and move them inter-state for selfish political reasons.)

The National party was always vulnerable to One Nation now this vulnerability is in spades.  One Nation can say they uphold family values whereas the Nationals patently do not given Joyce is still their leader.
Joyce is also quite vulnerable in his own electorate to an independent who upholds family values and says he won't lie to the electorate like Joyce did.

Moreover Joyce just does not get it that in a party of family values you cannot say things are personal. Social liberals can because adultery means nothing to them.
The patent allocation of his mistress to other offices once she was pregnant and then accepting rent free luxury accommodation shows just how bad his political instincts are. Last week also showed his understanding of his portfolio is not very high.

If Joyce is still leader at the next election the coalition will be decimated given what erupted over last week.

Update:

I find myself having to make three related points.

1) Anything Joyve said in the same sex marriage debate was shite
2)  I have listened to 2GB since this all occurred every so often. No blame on Joyce despite the obvious derailing of family values. Criticism of Turnbull unbelievably because he upholds said very values. It appears 'right wing ' people hate Turnbull more than they actually believe in the values they espouse.
3) Joyce will be 41 before bubby appears on god's earth. This means if she is a daughter and say marries at 25 then he will be 76 when walking down the aisle with her. Absurd. Will his four other daughters want him at their weddings???

Hat script:

I should have talked about Barnaby's hat. Why would a man wear such a hat in a suit in the shade?
I will write slowly for Soony. He is yet again trying to portray himself as a man of the land, a farmer, a cow cockie. He is in fact an accountant from a regional city in Queensland who was so pro-farmer that he had no farmers as clients.  He would have a great story to tell if he ran the books of various farmers. He would know their business inside out yet he has NEVER spoken so.

Around the Traps 16/2/18

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Julie McIntyre and John Germov on the-rise-and-fall-of-ben-ean-moselle-and-what-it-says-about-australian-society
• Julie Sonneman and Peter Goss on why-the-commonwealth-should-resist-meddling-in-schools
• Peter Fisher on fixing-cities-water-crises-could-send-our-climate-targets-down-the-gurgler
• Zoe Staines on australia-is-missing-the-closing-the-gap-employment-target-by-decades 
• Croaking Cassandra on reserve-bank-attempts-to-play-distraction , more-than-a-quarter-of-a-century-behind-the-advanced-world , robertson-on-productivity-not-much-basis-for-confidence , expecting-more-inflation , the-reserve-banks-mcdermott-again
• Ross Gittins on economists-do-little-to-promote-bank-competition , private-health-insurance-is-con-job , how-our-economic-prospects-turn-on-wage-growth
• Greg Jericho on economy-returning-to-normal-it-can-only-be-the-new-normal
• Kumuda Simpson on climate-change-and-security-and-why-its-so-hard
• The Kouk on the-rba-is-for-turning-it-might-take-a-while-but-we-ll-get-there
• John Wanna on governments-shouldnt-be-so-hasty-in-declaring-victory-on-wages-policy
• The Piping Shrike on borrowed-time
• Press Gallery Reform on out-with-bathwater-2-change-of-focus
• Sean Sands and Michael Beverland on myer-once-stood-for-the-aspirational-middle-class-but-now-its-lost-sight-of-who-its-customers-are
• Quenton Grafton and John Williams on states-dummy-spit-over-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-clouds-the-real-facts
• Simon Holmes a Court on itd-be-wonderful-if-the-claims-made-about-carbon-capture-were-true 
• Marc Hudson on its-20-years-since-privatisation-lit-the-spark-under-south-australias-livewire-energy-politics

Northern America

• Amelia Thomson-Deveaux on why-democrats-and-republicans-did-a-sudden-180-on-the-fbi
• Mathew Yglesias on trumps-infrastructure-plan
• Tim Duy on stick-to-the-forecast Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on how-big-a-bang-for-trumps-buck-wonkish Thanks Mark
• Jacob Robbins on how-the-rise-of-market-power-in-the-united-states-may-explain-some-macroeconomic-puzzles Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on impact-tax-arbitrage-us-balance-payments Thanks Mark
• Economic Principals on nobody knows anything Thanks Mark
• FRBSF on disappointing-us-output-recovery-after-2009 Thanks Mark 
• Brad De Long on unpopular-trump-infrastructure-plan
• Barkley Rosser on drastically-changint-rules-on-infrastructure
• John Cassidy on a-white-house-budget-fit-for-the-king-of-debt
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-increasedin-January , comments-on-january-housing-starts
• Daniel Flitton on worldwide-threat-assessment
• Diego Leiva on monroe-doctrine-revival
• Brtan Wanick et al on why-security-measures-wont-stop-school-shootings
• Olivier Corbon et al on full-employment/real-time-estimates-of-potential-gdp-should-the-fed-really-be-hitting-the-brakes Thanks Brad
• Jared Bernstein on the-presidents-new-budget-sorry-but-attention-must-be-paid Thanks Mark
• The Conversable economist on rising-interest-rates-but-easier-financial-conditions
• German Lopez on us-gun-violence-statistics-maps-charts
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on budgets-bad-faith-and-balance
• Rachel Wolfe on russian-election-interference-sanders-stein-trump
• Nate Silver on how-much-did-russian-interference-affect-the-2016-election

Europe

• Mainly Macro on the-two-types-of-populism-within-brexit , labour-polls-and-customs-union, a-comparison-in-accountability-oxfam-and-the-NHS
• long and variable on changing-unconditional-boe-forecasts-dont-mean-we-should-take-brexit-impact-studies-with-a-pinch-of-salt
• Coppolla Comment on the-misery-of-mitie
• Kruggers on notes-on-european-recovery-wonkish Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on oxfam-organizational-drift

Asia

• Rodger Shanahan on israel-strikes-syria-loses-fighter-and-maybe-something-more
• Justin Hastings on sanction-busting-north-korea-style
• Brad Setser on belt-and-road-initiative-didnt-quite-live-its-hype Thanks Mark
• Katherine Mansted on olympic-detente-just-another-north-korean-deceit
• Almrita Malhi on malaysia-election-electric-exhausting
• Nicole de Souza on jonghyun-and-depression-south-korea
• David Brewster on indian-ocean-base-race-india-responds

Wonk

• Noriel Roubini on monetary-policy-missing-inflation Thanks Brad
• Tim Harford on lessons-from-history-in-how-to-spot-a-bubble
• Sandwichman on is-invisible-hand-lump-of-labor
• stumbling and mumbling on technology-power-ideology , neoliberalism-as-lack-of-self-restraint
• Nick Gruen on now-is-the-time-for-complacency-rba-v-bank-of-england-edition-part-two 
• The Conversable Economist on four-examples-from-automation-frontier , network-effects-big-data-and-antitrust-issues-for-big-tech , nudge-policies , global-homeownership-rates
• Gauti Eggerstonn et al on kaldor-piketty-monopoly-power Thanks Mark
• Liberty Street on does-more-skin-in-the-game-mitigate-bank-risk-taking Thanks Mark 
• Dani Rodrik on double-threat-to-liberal-democracy Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on austerity-whats-it-good-for
• Uneasy Money on pedantry-and-mastery-in-following-rules
• Heike Schmidt on zumas-time-is-up-but-what-does-it-mean-for-south-africa
• Stephen Grenville on central-banks-changing-of-the-guard
• Mainly Macro on do-trumps-deficits-matter
• Tyler Cowen on simple-theory-service-sector-productivity
• Lorenzo on the-dissident-right-and-the-race-thing

General

• Charlies Diary on why-i-barely-read-sf-these-day Thanks Brad
• Margurete Johnson on guide-to-the-classics-sappho-a-poet-in-fragments 
• Geraint Lewis and Prajwal Kafle on when-galaxies-collide-size-matters-if-you-want-to-know-the-fate-of-our-milky-way

Climate

• Stochastic Trend on a-multicointegration-model-of-global-climate-change
• Open Mind on sea-level-acceleration-2 
• and Then Theres Physics on political-scientists , the-two-degree-delusion
• hotwhopper on climate-science-denial-dismissed

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• heating-nba-free-throw-shooting
• hysteresis-corner-mistakes-omissions-not-change-general-conclusion-paper
• 3-quick-tricks-get-data-scienceanalytics-field
• testing-seth-roberts-appetite-theory
• one data pattern, many intrepretations
• the-lab-where-it-happens
• use-multilevel-modeling-correct-winners-curse-arising-selection-successful-experimental-results
• think-risks-low-doses-radon
• write-no-matter
• Kaiser Fung on bursting-of-the-social-media-bubble
• Junkcharts on please-help-the-delaware-dept-of-education
• statschat on most-inaccurate-media-number-ever
• John Cook on bell-polynomials 

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• economic-goodness-of-fit
• recommended-reading-for-february
• No Hesitations on ml-forecasting-and-market-design, neural-nets-ml-and-ai
• Marc Bellamare on advanced econometrics
• Econometric Sense on intuition-for-random-effects

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• still-grumpy-about-compulsory-happiness
• Andreas Ortmann on ethical-failures-where-they-come-from-and-how-to-address-them
• Tim Harford on the-logic-of-failure
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading, can-happen-authoritarianism-america-3

Vox Wonk

• dynamics-inter-firm-networks-and-firm-growth
• global-trade-and-dollar
• search-fiscal-space-new-database
• hawks-and-doves-deeds-and-words-new-ebook
• effect-wholesalers-regional-firm-exports-japan
• cryptocurrencies-dont-make-sense
• urban-concentration-and-economic-growth
• macroprudential-stress-tests
• average-income-capita-health-outcomes-and-allocation-development-assistance-health

Is it possible to be this ignorant?

Our old mate Katesy was always a bit of a looney tunes but it seems he wants to go further. now the Trump is in charge of Chaos house!
Here he is
He wonders about  why there is no revolt against Keynesianism

Oh dear! where do we start?
Perhaps with Henry Farrell and John Quiggin's excellent piece on hard keynesianism.
Just read this
'Contrary to the beliefs of nearly all anti-Keynesians — and, regrettably, some Keynesians, too — Keynesianism demands more, not less, fiscal rectitude in normal times than does the orthodox theory of balanced budgets that underpins the EU.'

 They are writing in 2011.
 Kates thought because there were budget deficits in the euro-area they were expansionary when they were quite contractionary. If only he and other understood fiscal policy!
Herein lies the problem he is anti-keynesian but has no idea of what Keynesianism actually is.
No wonder he is a Trump apologist.
He still has no understanding there is a seasonal pattern to revenue receipts in the USA. the Budget goes in to surplus for a very short period. It did this under Obama but our Stevey does not know this.
Kruggers has a short snappy article on when deficits are needed and when they are not in the USA.

You would think he might put two and two together if the US public debt is rising but again not our Stevie.

I guess the other thing to say he also has no self awareness. Just like Trump he is showing ignorance on a large scale but does not know it.

sigh

Cryptocurrencies do not make sense

At least some one has written down most of what I had thought about cryptocurrencies.
Jon Danielsson does so at Vox Wonk as I call it.
Easy to read and understnd.

Barnaby Joyce has a big problem

The leader of the National party and Deputy Prime Minister has a big problem.

The Nationals has been ever since its birth been a party that supports agrarian socialism ( the Government pays for their losses and the farmers keeps their profits) and social conservatism. In other words they a big supporter of the traditional family values.

Joyce has actually shown himself to be worse than Tony Burke. At least when he separated it wasn't to a woman who is some 20 years younger then he.
Can the National party have a leader that has infidelity problems and has a child out of wedlock?

I think not.
This whole situation shows Joyce has no appreciation of the institution of marriage.

What the hell does he stand for???

Postscript:

We now are in the mess that his lover was transferred from Joyce's office ( why?) onto other jobs which in effect paid better than her original job. I can imagine how Centrelink would react if a person argued a woman who is pregnant by me is not my partner!!
It does not pass the pub test!

Around the Traps 9/2/18

It is time yet again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Duckett et al on hospitals-are-risky-places-but-some-are-better-than-others
• Lisa Denny on tasmania-cant-only-rely-on-a-growing-population-for-an-economic-boost
• Euan Graham on asean-still-central-australia
• Croaking Cassandra on towards-a-statutory-monetary-policy-committee , should-the-reserve-bank-be-broken-in-two , inflation-is-still-expected-to-rise , parliament-should-fund-the-reserve-bank-annually
• Ross Gittins on next-election-will-offer-voters-more-choice ,if-we-had-more-sense-wed-push-early-childhood-education
• Rodger Shanahan on exposed-australia-s-secret-war-plans-attack-iran-maybe
• Giles Parkinson on how-teslas-big-battery-is-bringing-australias-gas-cartel-to-heel
• Greg Jericho on whoever-wins-the-argument-over-wages-growth-will-likely-win-the-next-election ,  is-private-health-insurance-a-con-the-answer-is-in-the-graphs
• John Quiggin on the-nff-doesnt-understand-the-difference-between-argument-and-abuse
• Ian Wright on cape-town-is-almost-out-of-water-could-australian-cities-suffer-the-same-fate
• Peter Sivey on labors-2-cap-on-private-health-insurance-premium-rises-wont-fix-affordability
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-future-expectations-causing-sharemarket-gyrations-and-interest-rate-doubts
• Frank Bongiorno on the-larrikin-as-leader-how-bob-hawke-came-to-be-one-of-the-best-and-luckiest-prime-ministers
• Jane Hall and Rosalin Viney on public-hospital-blame-game-heres-how-we-got-into-this-funding-mess

Northern America

• Larry Summers on jerome-powells-challenge-at-the-fed Thanks Mark
• Economic Principals on a few more words on Janet Yellen Thanks Mark
• Barkley Rosser on distractions-distractions , end-of-obama-yellen-economy
• Mathew Yglesias on trump-show
• Tim Duy on moving-pieces Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on unpopular-trump-infrastructure-plan
• Sam Roggeveen on americas-two-doctrines
• The Conversable Economist on behind-declining-labor-share-of-income , us-history-and-path-to-european-intergration , what-charter-schools-can-teach-rest-of-the-K to12-education
• Roger Farmer on confidence-and-crashes Thanks Mark
• Regulatory Review on farewell-fracking-regulations
• Robert Stavins on lets-put-current-u-s-government-views-climate-change-historical-context Thanks Mark
• Stephen Grenville on tide-turning-against-us-financial-regulation
• Alex Ward on trump-fbi-nunes-texts-page-strzok
• New Deal Democrat on why-im-not-impressed-by-januarys-2-9-yoy-wage-growth
• Gus Wezerek on 20-years-of-congresss-budget-procrastination-in-one-chart
• Perry Bacon on white-democrats-have-gotten-way-more-liberal-on-identity-issues
• Brad Setser on do-not-overlook-december-trade-data Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on fisherian-decomposition-of-interest-rate-increase , more-on-portfolio-crowding-out-in-the-context-of-normalized-fed-policy , trumps-trade-deficit
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on fraudulence-of-the-fiscal-hawks
• Ezra Klein in trump-fox-nunes-fbi-warner-texts

Europe

• Mainly Macro on large-models-small-models-and-brexit
• stumbling and mumbling on brexiter-feminists , brexiters-blind-spot
• Daniel Woker on comic-opera-italy-s-election

Asia

• Bernard Avishai on confederation-the-one-possible-israel-palestine-solution
• Tony Walker on trump-and-turnbull-have-little-cause-for-satisfaction-over-progress-in-afghanistan
• John Hart on syria-plan-name-and-shame-chemical-weapons-suspects
• Issac Stone Fish on china-web-closes
• Alexander Harper on spectre-divided-yemen
• Alvin YH Cheung on hong-kong-race-baiting-judiciary
• Aisyah Llewellyn on punitive-measures-indonesias-new-draft-criminal-code

Wonk

• Dallas Fed on the death of the phillips curve Thanks Mark
• Liberty Street on a-new-perspective-on-low-interest-rates Thanks Mark
• Cecchetti and Scoenholtz on financing-intangible-capital Thanks Mark
• Mainly Macro on academic-knowledge-about-economic-policy-is-not-just-another-opinion , decreasing the size of the state is very unpopular
• Tim Harford on microsoftofficevscandycrush
• the conversable economist on could-driverless-trucks-create-more-trucking-jobs
• Nick Rowe on price-level-targeting-targets-the-stickiest-prices
• Douglas Campbell on on-uses-and-abuses-of-economath
• long and variable on greenspan-putlessness
• Macromania on fiscal-policy-and-price-level
• John Quiggin on bitcoin-financial-markets
• stumbling and mumbling on technology-power-ideology

General

• Mark de Vitis on explainer-the-symbolism-of-the-lady-and-the-unicorn-tapestry-cycle
• Rodd Liddle on stop-trying-to-make-football-perfect-its-the-errors-that-make-it-fun

Climate

• Open Mind on huge-problem-with-jevrejeva-et-al-sea-level-data, surface-temperature-and-satellite-temperature , 
• Moyhu on weirdness-from-armstronggreen-and-the-conservative-media
• David Kirtley on How-to-Change-Your-Mind-on-Climate-Change
• Arctic sea ice on piomas-february-2018

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• teach-statistics-course-journalists
• heres-post-super-bowl-theme
• andrew-vs-multi-armed-bandit
• p0-24-modest-improvements-want-believe-null-finding-dont
• n1-experiments-multilevel-models
• methodological-terrorism-reals-deal-dont-know-missing-data-imputation
• eid-ma-clack-shaw-zupoven-del-ba
• whats-wrong-evidence-based-medicine-can-better
• im-skeptical-claims-made-paper
• return-of-the-klam
• Junkcharts on when-design-goes-awry
• Kaiser Fung on public-private-interests-collide-in-an-elevator-moment

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• bayesian-econometrics-slides
• asa-symposium-on-statistical-inference
• No Hesitations on big-data-machine-learning-and-economic-statistics
• Econometric Sense on deep-learning-vs-logistic-regression

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• optimizing-bacteria-the-value-of-information
• civilisation-primeval-slime-to-mars
• Tim Harord on books-about-money-the-mind-and-the-planet

Vox Wonk

• unemployment-insurance-and-adverse-selection
• reported-preference-versus-revealed-preference
• recent-developments-regulatory-treatment-sovereign-exposures
• revenge-places-dont-matter
• size-and-composition-fiscal-adjustment-matter-inequality
• future-drivers-labour-force-participation-growth-europe
• uk-house-prices-looking-far-past-and-future
• economic-predictions-big-data-illusion-sparsity
• euro-area-economy-shedding-crisis-legacies
• chinese-banking-system

Academic knowledge of about economic policy is not just another opinion

This is the title of the latest missive from Simon Wren-Lewis of Mainly Macro fame.

It is an interesting and typical thoughtful piece.

In it he argues economists did argue for the right policies to counter the GFC.

One part was his writing about the 364 economist who warned Thatcher. They were CORRECT. The Tight 1981 budget put off recovery!

The Labour Share of Income

Timothy Taylor who is The Conversable Economist writes about the declining share of labour income.
Although it is primarily US targeted the study also examined other countries.
It appears the two major reasons are:

• substitution of cheaper technology for labour
• larger economic profits.

The dual citizenship saga again

We again see the parties bickering about dual citizenship.

However we should emphasise there is a grest difference between the ALP MPs and other MPs who have caught up in the saga.

All the ALP MPs took steps before nomination to relinquish the dual citizenships. This is in direct contrast to previous MPs. Take Barnaby Joyce for example. He didn't think to inquire whether he was a NZ citizen because his father was one.
The ONLY reason why we are in a bother about this is because the Court of Disputed Returns have not as yet given us a quite clear direction on what taking reasonable steps are. Hence why the ALP and the Liberal parties have dueling QC opinions on what it MAY mean.

We should get this when they rule on whether the ALP senator for the ACT is in fact still a Senator.

If she is okay then all the ALP MPs will be okay. On the other hand if she is not neither will the other ALP MPs.

The A-League and the New Socceroos coach

There is a lot of heartburn in the football community over the A-League. Crowds and TV audiences are down.

Should we be worried?   Well yes however part of the answer is the form of the two best supported teams ,Western Sydney Wanderers and Melbourne victory. both started the season very badly and neither looks like they can actually make the fair dinkum semi-finals!
Also the product has improved each season. for example I watched the Wanderers V Adelaide game at Homebush late last year. It was end to end stuff. Totally gripping and exciting.

What are the answers then?
You can always improve the product so here are some suggestions.

1. Get more youngsters into the teams. There are far too many players in A-League teams who should not be there.  Robert Cornthwaite at the Wanderers is a classic. Afterall you cannot cal yourself a coach if you cannot change the potential of a youngster into solid good skill and regular player.
2. Choose your coach wisely. There are some coaches in the A-League who just are not up to it. We have to ensure that the football played is what the fans want to see.
3. examine the prices. The big Bash is getting very high attendances . One of the reasons is the low price. the womens AFL price is nothing!!  
4. We need some marketing. I have yet to see anything about the A-League.
5. Clubs need to 'work' their fans. Sydney FC should be getting at least 20,000 to watch them do their stuff but they are not. Why?

We have a new Socceroos coach. My eldest son thinks it means we should get through to the second round. I will wait until I can see what players he is selecting and what formations he is laying.

I am hoping he is not like Veerbeck or Osiek who had no confidence in the players they selected. We have had a very competent world cup display last World Cup, we won the Asian cup and then performed quite competently again in the confederations cup.

There is no evidence to think we will get thrashed in our group. No evidence at all.

Given this is a short-term appointment it surely must mean Arnold will take over after the World Cup is over and the A-League season is too.

Around the Traps 2/2/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kate Galloway on factcheck-can-native-title-only-exist-if-australia-was-settled-not-invaded
• Julianne Schultz on the-ties-that-still-bind-the-enduring-tendrils-of-the-british-empire
• Croaking Cassandra on inflation-is-the-reserve-banks-responsibility, can-economic-populism-preempt-political-populism , the-statutory-goal-for-monetary-policy , handling-failed-insurers
• Greg Jericho on expect-a-big-fight-on-industrial-relations-this-year-as-low-wage-growth-fuels-discontent , are-trumps-tax-cuts-really-a-model-for-australian-growth, cpi-figures-show-inflation-remains-low-but-households-arent-feeling-it
• John Quiggin on privatisation-is-deeply-unpopular-with-voters-heres-how-to-end-it
• Hugh Saddler on explainer-power-station-trips-are-normal-but-blackouts-are-not
• Sam Roggeveen on defence-exports-strategy-revives-old-ethical-dilemmas
• Ross Gittins on wage-growth-key-to-lasting-economic-strength-in-2018
• Johan Lidberg on  new-bill-would-make-australia-worst-in-the-free-world-for-criminalising-journalism
• Patrick Weller on cabinet-files-story-shows-australia-still-needs-to-be-more-open
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-weak-inflation-means-interest-rates-arent-rising-anytime-soon 
• Lindy Edwards on the-truth-about-political-donations-there-is-so-much-we-dont-know
• Meredith Craigee on fixing-pain-management-could-help-us-solve-the-opioid-crisis
• Ross Gittins on cpi-more-accurate-measure-of-living-than-we-imagine
• Daniel Flitton on cabinet-files

Northern America

• Barkley Rosser on parsing-poland-problem-paradox , is-treasury-secretary-mnuchin-right
• Kruggers on what-the-economic-data-dont-tell-us Thanks Mark
• Michael Tomarsky on trump-wolff-worst-of-the-worst
• Danny Lam on how-donald-trump-is-retooling-politics-for-the-21st-century
• Calculated Risk on real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-november , public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-presidents
• Regulatory Review on pierce-republicans-mythical-basis-regulatory-reform Thanks Mark 
• Jared Bernstein on real-time-estimates-of-potential-gdp-an-important-new-paper-from-the-full-employment-project Thanks Mark
• New Deal Democrat on is-the-economy-partying-like-its-1999
• Alex Ward on fbi-statement-memo-nunes-trump-russia
• Tim Duy on fed-stands-pat-but-more-rate-hikes-are-on-the-way Thanks Mark
• Andrea Jones-Rooy on not-much-from-a-state-of-the-union-usually-becomes-law
• Barry Ritholtz on why-markets-love-trump-s-tax-cuts
• Zach Beauchamp and Alex Ward on nunes-memo-release-the-memo-fbi-russia
• John Cassiday on    after-four-years-of-high-achievement-janet-yellen-may-be-leaving-the-fed-at-the-right-time 
• Zeesham Aleem on peter-strzok-clinton-emails-fbi-trump-scandal-mueller
• Zack Beauchamp on 3-memos-nunes-fbi-trump-russia-explained
• Baseline Scenario on hey-democrats-the-problem-isnt-jobs-and-growth Thanks Mark
• Perry Bacon on why-the-nunes-memo-probably-wont-do-what-trump-wants-it-to

Europe

• Seamus Coffey on estimating-irelands-output-gap
• Diarmaid Smyth on central-bank-quarterly-bulletin-qb-1-2018-published , new-ssisi-journal-170th-published
• Mainly Macro on will-conservative-party-ever-recover-from-Brexit , brexit-is-fantastic-project
• Coppolla comment on clearing-out-carillions-cupboards
• stumbling and mumbling on the-outsider , picking-your-own-facts
• Tom Gross on the-truth-about-iran-is-now-of-little-importance-to-jeremy-corbyn
• Marcus Koll on unending-nightmare-germany-s-social-democrats
• long and variable on brexit-and-the-analysis-of-its-economic-consequences-iteration-2 , would-a-2nd-referendum-be-more-likely-to-be-won-by-remain
• Stephen Blank on real-purpose-russia-presidential-election
• Roger Farmer on why-we-experts-should-be-a-little-more-humble
• the conversable economist on is-euro-out-of-danger

Asia

• Evan Laksmana on indonesia-us-relations-sweating-small-stuff
• Aisan Llewellyn on chosen-one-djarots-surprise-bid-govern-north-sumatra
• David Brewster on chinas-new-network-indian-ocean-bases
• Robert E Kelly on despite-olympics-trump-moving-western-debate-north-korea-right
• Francess Kitt on beat-china-hip-hop-ban
• Vivienne Chow on courage-youth-hong-kong
• Stephen Grenville on china-s-economic-gloom-merchants
• Murali Krishnan on indias-intolerance-hurting-country

Wonk

• Peter McCawley on world-bank-loses-economist-demand-was-less-supply
• Stephen Grenville on don-t-renegotiate-trans-pacific-partnership
• Tim Harford on the-world-in-2118-my-forecasts-for-the-century-ahead
• stumbling and mumbling on why-economists-should-look-at-horses , economists-in-public
• Nick Rowe on the-tale-of-the-two-cobblers
• Roger Farmer on freedom-of-the-press-and-internet-filtering
• The Everyday Economist on on-prediction
• Croaking Cassandra on some-anglo-labour-markets
• the conversable economist on the-rising-importance-of-soft-skills , winter-2018-journal-of-economic-perspectives, kill-zombie-firms
• Kruggers on bubble-bubble-fraud-and-trouble Thanks Mark
• Dani Rodrik on  can-economic-populism-preempt-political-populism Thanks Mark
• Uneasy Money on noah-smith-on-bitcoins-a-failure-with-a-golden-future
• Promarket on oliver-hart-poetry-economic-theory Thanks Mark
• Unassuming economist on how-well-do-economists-forecast-recessions-a-groundhog-day-update Thanks Mark
• Paul Fritjers on how-to-tax-the-platform-economy

General

• Tanya Hill on the-next-full-moon-brings-a-lunar-eclipse-but-is-it-a-super-blood-blue-moon-as-well-that-depends
• Kevin Drum on a-bit-of-weekend-blogging-nostalgia
• Elizabeth Buchanan on sea-cables-thawing-arctic

Climate

• David Appell on ocean-heat-content-reaches-record-levels
• Craig Stevens and Christina Hulbe on climate-scientists-explore-hidden-ocean-beneath-antarcticas-largest-ice-shelf
• Peter Sinclair on fact-checking-trumps-climate-delusions
• Skeptical Science on natural gas killed coal- now renewables and batteries are taking over
• and Then Theres Physics on confounding-ecs-estimates
• Tamino on how-to-fake-a-pause-in-global-warming , global-warming-the-relentless-trend
• Anthony Pagano on as-arctic-sea-ice-shrinks-new-research-shows-how-much-energy-polar-bears-use-to-find-food

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• looking-possible-comparisons-not-overfitting-put-multilevel-model
• stan-case-studies-nngp-lotka-volterra
• objects-class-verbal-behavior
• suggested-project-mit-better-science-ideathon-assessing-reasonableness-missing-data-imputations
• education-maternity-leave-breastfeeding
• science-special-kind-storytelling
• anti-bayesian-moment-passing
• revision-female-named-hurricanes-likely-not-deadlier-male-hurricanes
• John Kruschke on dont-treat-ordinal-data-as-metric-update-of-movie-ratings
• statschat on another-test-for-alzheimers-2
• Junkcharts on light-entertainment-the-difference-in-power-between-nations-is-not-statistically-significant
• Kaiser Fung on power-pose-relapse

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• Freakometrics on forecasting techniques for demographics
• No Hesitations on structural-var-analysis
• Bank Underground on completing-correlation-matrices Thanks Mark

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• moral-sentiments-and-economics
• learning-about-machine-learning
• an-impulse-buy
• Tyler Cowen on stochastically-best-books-read-latin-america 

Vox Wonk

• speed-under-sail-during-early-industrial-revolution
• how-policy-shapes-long-term-care-arrangements
• soda-taxes-target-young-not-individuals-high-sugar-diets
• independent-fiscal-councils-and-conduct-fiscal-policy-insights-new-ebook
• revaluation-international-banks-following-crisis
• trade-and-investment-disputes-role-economists
• monetary-policy-negative-nominal-interest-rates
• banking-crisis-bail-ins-and-money-holdings-lessons-cyprus
• economic-crisis-and-structural-reforms-southern-europe
• weight-gains-trade-foods-evidence-mexico