Not Trampis: 2018

Monday, 31 December 2018

The Asian Cup

We start our defence of the Asian Cup on Sunday night.
Thus far we have had four friendlies. The first and last were useless.The two in Australia against South Korea and Lebanon were the opposite.

We go into the cup without Mooy our most creative player and also Leckie.

On balance the squad is competent with plenty of attacking options however there are still questions.

Why pick Milligan as a holding mid-fielder when he is likely to announce his retirement in international football after the tournament is over.
Kruse is a luxury we cannot afford. since his ACL he simply does not have the acceleration needed, he is tentative in front of goal and has never been a great crosser of the ball.
Nabbout whilst fast does not have acceleration which is the quality needed in football. The defenders treated him with contempt in the World Cup. No defender gets tired ,physically or otherwise against him.

On the other hand Boyle and Mabil have shown themselves to be attacking players. Degenek has proved to be solid as a rock. If Sainsbury is back in form as it seems then the defence looks quite solid.

I doubt if we can win the cup again but the semi-finals does look beyond us. Watching Arnie in action when the pressure is on will be interesting

I am looking forward to Sunday

Sunday, 30 December 2018

Know Your Subject

The terribly consistent Sinclair Davidson shows again he knows little what he writes about.

He makes a huge claim about John Howard. He claims Howard had a plan to become PM and a plan to be PM.
Really.
Oh dear I do remember the years after 1996 when Howard was PM. Most people thought was in over his head. He was now in a position way beyond his competency.
His government was continually criticised as a do nothing government. This eventually go to Howard after the BCA said this and he announced Australia would have a GST.

This lead to his government getting the lowest vote ever for a re-elected Government!

What a plan.
Did he have a plan for becoming PM? Not in his last run as Opposition Leader. He was going nowhere and then Hewson lost the unlosable election and downer made a complete hash of being Opposition Leader.

you are right it is almost the New Year and there is little to write about!

Thursday, 27 December 2018

Around the Traps 28/12/18 Christmas Edition

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Croaking Cassandra on gcsb-china-and-a-craven-government, christmas-near-and-far
Peter Gregory on when-a-fair-trial-could-be-at-risk-suppression-is-the-order-of-the-day
Mark the Ballot on our-aggregation-remains-at-462-per-cent
Kevin Bowman on new-south-wales-2019-battle-of-unknowns
Ross Gittins on does-gift-giving-make-sense-silly-question
Greg Jericho on come-election-2019-wage-growth-will-matter-more-to-voters-than-a-surplus
Nick Gruen on deck-the-halls-of-academe-managerialism-product-placement-and-the-conversation-featuring-troppos-annual-christmas-competition

Northern America

Calculated Risk on review-ten-economic-questions-for-2018, real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent-in-october
Brad De Long on a-year-after-the-corporate-tax-cut
Macro mania on does-fed-have-symmetric-inflation-target
Barkley Rosser on the-last-adult-in-room-walks-out-over-ISIS
New Deal Democrat on the-fed-scrapes-scylla-after-careening-into-charybdis
long and variable on whatever-powell-says-the-fed-cant-avoid-taking-political-considerations-into-account
popehat on alan-dershowitz-is-lying-to-you Thanks Brad
Ernie Tedeschi on upshot/mystery-slow-wage-growth-econony Thanks Brad
Tim Duy on markets-in-crisis-trump-has-damaged-the-fed Thanks Brad
Eliza Griswold on evangelicals-of-color-fight-back-against-the-religious-right

Europe

on christmas holiday

Asia

Tyler Cowen on china-fact-day-9

Wonk

Tim Harford on why-good-forecasters-become-better-people
the conversable economist on real-vs-artificial-christmas-trees, charles-dickens-on-management-vs-labor, to-be-happy-at-home-is-ultimate-result
Tyler Cowen on islam-compatible-free-market-capitalism-empirical-analysis-1970-2010
Nick Gruen on peter-shergolds-foreword-to-my-submission-to-the-thodey-review
Nendrik Bessembinder on do stocks outperform treasury bills Thanks Brad
Yosha Mount and Jordan Kyle on what populists do to democracies

General

Ari Mattes on the-year-in-film-from-witchy-hits-to-a-superhero-miss
Alice Gorman on curious-kids-why-does-the-world-store-nuclear-waste-and-not-just-shoot-it-into-the-sun-or-deep-space
Brian Resnick on jupiter-photos-juno-high-res-clouds-great-red-spot
Julian Mathews on why-two-people-see-the-same-thing-but-have-different-memories
the conversable economist on is-loneliness-rising

Climate

David Appell on arctic-warming-1958-vs-2018
Skeptical Science on 2018-hottest-la-nina-year-ever
Open Mind on freezy-hot-climate-change
science of doom on opinions-and-perspectives-1-the-consensus

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

econometric sense on thinking-about-confidence-intervals

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

the-matter-of-england
Ross Gittins on how-to-get-more-bang-from-your-bucks
Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
Liz Ellison on ten-great-australian-beach-reads-set-at-the-beach

vox wonk

Wednesday, 26 December 2018

The last word on South Africa and Sandpapergate

We had interviews with both Bancroft and Smith last night on Foxsports.

The first thing I would ask is why would anyone believe them now when the lied previously.
however the main beef I have is does anyone really believe the bowlers knew sweet bugger all about what occurred.

The most inexperienced person is attempting to do something to the cricket ball. If he does not do it correctly then ball instead of reversing ( and remember reverse swing is very sharp and late) then ball goes gunbarrel straight.

The bowlers get no swing nor swerve thus it affects both fast and slow bowlers.

Not one journalist has asked about this!!!

Tuesday, 25 December 2018

The Third Test

The Boxing day test is almost iconic now here in OZ.
Unfortunately last year we got a terrible pitch. Indeed it was so bad I stopped watching.
We need pitched where bowlers are on top and gear innings are few and far between so they are great innings.
Thus far in Adelaide we had a test Australia should have won easily nut lost easily because of their batting. The Indian bowling was as good as the Aussies.
India lost the 2nd test comprehensive for two reasons.
1) For some inexplicable reason they picked Yadav who was a fast medium inaccurate outswing bowler.
2) Their openers failed badly again putting too much pressure on the middle order, Kholi in particular.
Australia has brought in Mitchell Marsh who is an allrounder. As Shame Warne would say he cannot bat ( except of roads) , he can't bowl and he cannot field. The Slips fieldsmen have a vulnerable look about them Not good if you have the attack we have. Just on that Starc to my mind was unimpressive in Perth. Only two decent inswingers all match.

India looks much better. The two openers are gawn.The batting looks much better or at worse as strong as in Perth but the bowling is a lot better.
If the only learn to bowl over the wicket and and so create problems for the Aussie right handers instead of bowling around the wicket and inviting Lyons to take more wickets they might do well.

Let us hope for a decent pitch and another enthralling match.

Comments at THIS blog

Sunday, 23 December 2018

Some things about Christmas sucks

Come Christmas time there is nothing on either the radio or TV. I usually get out books from the library to read. I annually read Lord of the rings and first among equals over the period as well.

What I loathed as a child was dressing up on the day ( which was always stinking hot) in long cloths going to a relative's place and having to endure a hot dinner. It was the worst possible meal to have in Australia.
fortunately My wife feels the same way so we have salads and antipasto for lunch and then dive into an atlantic salmon at dinner. I have found the perfect accompaniment to wash all this down with is a moscato. My wife rarely drinks but does like white moscatos whereas I like red ones.

The other thing that stands out are the woeful Christmas songs and carols played at the supermakets. Aaagh!

Have an enjoyable Christmas!

Thursday, 20 December 2018

Around the Traps 21/12/18

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Peter Martin on myefo-reveals-billions-more-in-revenue-9-billion-in-fresh-election-tax-cuts
Tony Walker on morrisons-decision-to-recognise-west-jerusalem-the-latest-bad-move-in-a-mess-of-his-own-making
Danielle Wood and Kate Griffiths on more-mirage-than-good-management-myefo-fails-to-hit-its-own-targets
Croaking Cassandra on hyefu-bits-and-pieces, immigration-data-some-questions, the-tree-god-again, productivity-no-relief-in-the-hours-data, the-prc-the-pacific-and-new-zealand, productivity-failure-treasury-clearly-has-the-wrong-model,gcsb-china-and-a-craven-government
Ross Gittins on the-truth-behind-mid-year-budget-update, how-to-keep-news-coming, how-we-killed-off-australias-inflation-problem
Patricia Edgar on -kids-technology-and-the-future-the-programs-and-projects-children-want-to-see-part-2, kids-technology-and-the-future-the-case-for-regulation-of-australian-childrens-content-part-3
Ross Garnaur et al on heres-a-long-term-budget-fix-that-would-boost-investment-replace-company-tax-with-cashflow-tax
Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-2018-year-in-review
Mtchael Grose and Lynette Bettio on state-of-the-climate-2018-bureau-of-meteorology-and-csiro
Greg Jericho on the-government-has-been-hit-with-a-surplus-but-what-if-the-good-times-dont-last
Peter Manning on how-access-journalism-is-threatening-investigative-journalism
The Kouk on smoking-levels-continue-to-plummet

Northern America

Progrowth liberal on rah-rah-economics
Jeffrey Sachs on trump-war-on-huawei-meng-wanzhou-arrest Thanks Mark
Brad De Long on eg-kate-bahn-_understanding-the-importance-of-monopsony-power-in-the-us-labor-market, the-great-american-tax-heist-turns-one-live-at-project-syndicate
Regulatory Review on ellig-economic-analysis-independent-agencies Thanks Mark
Stephen Grenville on uschina-tensions-about-economics-or-security
Menzie Chinn on yield-curve-inversions
Nathaniel Rakich on how-red-state-democrats-became-an-endangered-species-in-the-senate
Calculated Risk on comments-on-november-housing-starts, comments-on-november-existing-home-sales
Mathew Yglesias on obamacare-unconstitutional-democracy-misha-tseytlin
Sam Roggeveen on what-i-missed-2018-america-pushes-back, was-jim-mattis-really-last-adult-room
Cornelia Tremann on new-us-africa-strategy-not-about-africa-it-s-about-china
Robin Wright on is-trumps-plan-for-syria-a-withdrawal-or-a-surrender
the conversable economist on can-earned-income-tax-credit-mostly-pay-for-itself
Spencer England on stock-market-valuation-3
Geoffrey Skelley on the-house-will-have-just-as-many-moderate-democrats-as-progressives-next-year
Tim Duy on fed-hikes-rates-market-tumbles Thanks Brad
Narayna Kochertlakota on the-fed-s-risky-plan-to-boost-unemployment Thanks Brad
Mohamed A El-Erian on fed-rate-hike-powell-tries-to-balance-growth-and-volatility Thanks Brad
the conversable economist on subsidized-employment-two-randomized-us-studies

Europe

Thomas Piketty on yellow-vests-and-tax-justice Thanks Mark
Mainly Macro on how-leavers-can-believe-that-peoples-vote-is-antidemocratic , how-brexit-circumvented-democracy
Martina Lawless on economic-and-social-review-winter-2018
long and variable on legitimacy-somersaults, kings-bloomberg-bloopers
stumbling and mumbling on brexit-limits-of-empathy
Robert Skidelksy on theresa-may-plan-only-way-out-of-brexit-agony Thanks Brad
Karina Priser on europe-france-italy-immigration-border
Mark Lilla on two-roads-for-the-new-french-right

Asia

Antonio Fatas on how-low-is-low-for-chinese-gdp-growth Thanks Mark
Brad Setser on why-hasnt-china-needed-intervene-more-year Thanks Mark
Ramon Pacheco Pardo on moon-eurasia-opening-north-korea-serving-seoul-interests
Alexander Davis on moon-eurasia-opening-north-korea-serving-seoul-interests
Rodger Shanahan on what-happens-next-trumps-sudden-move-pull-us-troops-syria

Wonk

Promarket on market-power-scale-economies , the-inequality-paradox-rising-inequalities-nationally-diminishing-inequality-worldwideThanks Mark
Peter Dorman on neoliberalism-as-structure-and-ideology
Economic Principals on how the press covered the panic of 2008 Thanks Mark
Brad De Long on delongs-principles-of-neoliberalism-thanks-to-miniver-cheevy-for-formatting-hoisted-from-the-archives-from-1999
Scientific American on the-rise-of-knowledge-economics Thanks Mark
stumbling and mumbling on when-bad-government-matters
the conversable economist on the-diminution-of-welfare-as-anti-poverty-tool, tragedy-of-commons-50-years-later
Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on navigating-in-cloudy-skies Thanks Mark
Tim Harford on the-economists-guide-to-the-perfect-christmas
Malcolm Jorgenson on international-law-cannot-save-rules-based-order
Eric Lonergan on post-interest-rate-monetary-policy
Frank Cilliffo and Sharon Cardarsh on whats-wrong-with-huawei-and-why-are-countries-banning-the-chinese-telecommunications-firm

General

Language Log on language as a self-regulating system Thanks Mark
Tyler Cowen on museum-bible-washington-d-c

Climate

David Appell on forecasts-of-old-climate-models
renew economy on grid-connection-biggest-concern-for-wind-solar-and-storage-projects
and Then Theres Physics on there-was-no-pause-in-global-warming
Open Mind on global-warmings-pretend-pause

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

No Hesitations on causality-as-robust-prediction

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

the-invisible-privatization

Vox wonk

Wednesday, 19 December 2018

The highly unimpressive Angus Taylor

Angus Taylor is the current energy minister.
He is very unimpressive. I heard him interviewed this morning on Radio National by the impressive Hamish McDonald.

One phrase he uses as does his dear leader is what is the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow?

This must be one of the most stupid statements made in modern polity.

Solar and wind farms exist or will exist in every state that is connected with the inter-connector.

Do these men actually believe on a certain days or various days the sun does not shine in every state? Are they wanting us to believe on a certain day or various days the wind isn't blowing in every state?

Moreover demand for electricity is highest on very hot days. These are the days we see units in coal powered power stations break down and solar power is at its peak.

Angus Taylor either does not know this which means he is ignorant or he does ( which is more likely given his body language and replies to questions) and therefore is misleading at best or lying at worst.

Tuesday, 18 December 2018

Poll roundup

Kevin Bonham writes on poll-roundup-2018-year-in-review.

It is a great read as usual.

I would like to make one point.

It seems the Liberals are using gullible and numerate journalists just like the ALP machine men did when they got rid of Rudd.

If the polls are saying 55-45 but 'in house' polling has the liberals in much better terms in the 'marginal seats' then quite a lot of safe seats are vulnerable.

'Marginal seat' polling if it exists occurs in both parties by the parties surveying say 4 seats. each marginal seats would be surveyed for 400 people. If it is a random sample you could get a fair idea of what is going on overall.
You would not have a clue what is occurring in each seat.

I doubt very much if any polling took place.

Monday, 17 December 2018

MYEFO

The MYEFO was released yesterday.
I don't disagree with any a lot

Danielle wood and Kate Griffiths
Peter Martin
Ross Gittins
Greg Jericho
Warren Hogan This was written before the release.

A few comments.

This Government came into Office and promptly put spending at levels not seen since the GFC. The ALP had succeeded in lowering spending after the GFC troubles. Keeping spending at high levels for no good reasons and then boasting about spending constraint seems quite catallaxian.

The improvement has all come from cyclical improvement in the budget. There have been few structural improvements.

Indeed they have mapped out tax cuts which they have not yet announced. This worsens the structural budget. As does the new spending measures.

We do not yet have the ALP policy measures but we do know they have structural measures to offset their spending measures.

A final note on the structural budget. Prior to the GFC the Irish budget documents had their structural budget deficit at 0.5% of GDP or a balanced budget. Once hit by the GFC this deficit rose quite significant. A rising tide increases the structural deficit. We saw this here as well!

Thursday, 13 December 2018

Around the Traps 14/12/18

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Croaking Cassandra on where-have-real-prices-risen-and-fallen ,the-china-council-disgraces-themselves-and-shames-us, human-rights-helen-clark-and-the-prc, encouraging-transparency-and-accountabilit, human-costs-of-big-dislocations, funding-the-reserve-bank-focus-on-your-statutory-mandate, the-china-council-takes-the-stage, bank-capital-proposals-a-few-initial-comments
Tony Wood on newsflash-the-government-doesnt-need-to-break-up-power-companies-in-order-to-tame-prices-the-accc-says-so
Sacha Molitorisz and Dereck Wilding on digital-platforms-why-the-acccs-proposals-for-google-and-facebook-matter-big-time
Katherine Kemp on accc-wants-to-curb-digital-platform-power-but-enforcement-is-tricky
Michael O'Neil on not-wiped-out-why-whyalla-of-all-places-now-has-a-sustainable-future
Ben Phillips et al on cut-the-pension-boost-newstart-what-our-algorithm-says-is-the-best-way-to-get-value-for-our-welfare-dollars
Dirk van Graver on disruptors-disrupted-australia-new-encryption-law
Patricia Edgar on kids-technology-and-the-future-radical-revamp-needed-for-childrens-tv-content-quotas, kids-technology-and-the-future-technology-is-not-the-enemy-the-need-for-positive-media-literacy-part-1 thanks Nick Gruen
Greg Jericho on housing-is-enough-of-a-worry-dont-scare-us-with-warnings-of-rising-interest-rates
Peter McDonald on why-cutting-australias-migrant-intake-would-do-more-harm-than-good-at-least-for-the-next-decade
Yee Fui Ng on the-proposed-national-integrity-commission-is-a-watered-down-version-of-a-federal-icac
Richard Holden on vital-signs-no-joe-america-should-not-be-copying-australias-asset-recycling-misdirection
Warren Hogan on mondays-myefo-will-look-good-but-it-will-set-the-budget-up-for-awful-trouble-down-the-track
Dennis Muller on a-tale-of-two-media-reports-one-poses-challenges-for-digital-media-the-other-gives-abc-and-sbs-a-clean-bill-of-health
Anja Hilkemeijer on in-long-awaited-response-to-ruddock-review-the-government-pushes-hard-on-religious-freedom

Northern America

Tim Duy on unpleasant Thanks Brad
Mathew Yglesias on john-kelly-resignation-chief-of-staff-legacy, mark-calabria-fhfa-trump-interest-rates
James Hamilton on perspective-on-the-stock-market
the conversable economist on us-health-and-healthcare-spending-in-the-last-25-years, us-income-inequality-through-prism-of-different-studies
Robert Shiller on business/housing-boom-how-long-can-it-last Thanks Mark
Garry Hufbauer and Jeffrey Schott on trade-investment-policy-watch/under-hood-usmca-downgrade-north-america Thanks Mark
FRB Richmond on have yield inversions become more frequent Thanks Mark
Amelia Thomson-Devaux on why-it-might-be-impossible-to-overturn-a-presidential-pardon
Calculated Risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-during-presidential-terms , a-comment-on-professor-shillers-housing-article, key-measures-show-inflation-picked-up-slightly-in-november
Kathy Gilsnan on trump-incorrectly-links-immigration-terrorism
Adam Davidson on /swamp-chronicles/is-michael-cohens-three-year-sentence-a-good-deal-for-america
Brad De Long on clinton-administration-vis-trump-administration
Barkley Rosser on shiller-hystericizes-us-housing-market
Nathaniel Rakich and Julia Wolfe on white-voters-without-a-degree-remained-staunchly-republican-in-2018
Brink Lindsay et al on the center in an age of extremes Thanks Brad
Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-lesson-from-george-h-w-bushs-tax-reversal

Europe

Brad De Long on why-doesnt-italy-have-better-options
Mainly Macro on mps-need-to-get-real-about-brexit, are-labour-leadership-attitudes-to-brexit-just-the-austerity-story-all-over-again
Chris Bertram on britain-convicts-human-rights-defenders-of-terrorism-offence
stumbling and mumbling on a-behavioural-economic-case-for-brexit
long and variable on why-brexit-is-so-much-more-problematic-than-the-financial-crisis-of-2008
Tyler Cowen on macron-new-ideas-save-moment
Tim Quinn on theresa-may-defeats-brexit-plotters-heres-what-happens-now

Asia

Kerry Brown on xi-jinping-2018-any-closer-truth
David Appell on indias-clean-energy-efforts-are-very-impressive
Larry Summers on can-anything-hold-back-chinas-economy Thanks Mark
Joseph Gagnon on abenomics-working-dont-stop-now Thanks Mark
Elliot Zaagman on china-tantrum-diplomacy-huawei

Wonk

Tim Harford on messy-desks-and-benign-neglect-allow-ideas-to-grow
Macro mania on working-more-for-less
Branko Milanovic on why-inequality-matters Thanks Mark
stumbling and mumbling on blind-to-luck, brexits-irrelevant-cost
Jeffrey Frankel on jeffrey-frankel-gopinath-follows-obstfeld-at-the-imf-in-a-great-tradition
the conversable economist on the-diminution-of-welfare-as-anti-poverty-tool, economic-effects-of-islam
Nick Gruen on the-future-of-politics-by-john-burnheim
Saiah Lee on guest-contribution-monetary-policy-under-data-uncertainty

General

Brad De Long on blogging-what-to-expect-here
Bronwen Neil on blowing-up-the-parthenon-the-power-of-a-symbol
Mark Hemer on curious-kids-how-does-the-moon-being-so-far-away-affect-the-tides-on-earth
Open Mind on tis-the-season-for-sea-ice

Climate

Umair Irfan on greenland-ice-melt-sea-level-climate-change
desmog on trump-carbon-capture-storage-coal-dream-dead
Jack Pezzey on we-cant-know-the-future-cost-of-climate-change-lets-focus-on-the-cost-of-avoiding-it-instead
Peter Sinclair on arctic-report-card-2018
and Then Theres Physics on five-dimensions-of-climate-science-reductionism
Open Mind on arctic-hockey
the conversable economist on is-carbon-capture-and-storage-on-verge

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

No Hesitations on more-on-google-dataset-search

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

too-big-full-stop
Tyler Cowen on who-read-what-in-2018

Vox wonk

Wednesday, 12 December 2018

The Second Test

After a test that India won easily but should have lost easily we come to Perth with promises of a fast bouncy pitch.

Firstly what did we learn from Adelaide apart it was a bad cricket pitch. The Indian bowlers performed better than the highly rated Aussie bowlers.
Bumrah was easily the most consistently fastest bowler. Both bowling Sharma and Ashwin were far better bowlers than in previous visits.
On the Aussie side Starc ( who was actually a wicket-keeper for Berala in the Junior comp I coached in ) was bad again. He has not bowled well or been quick since the first test in Durban. his inswinger ( his most deadly weapon) is not looking good. On the other hand Hazelwood, Cummins and Lyons are all bowling well.

Secondly will India bat as extravagantly again in both innings? you would have to say there is a lot more potential in the Indian batting lineup that the Aussie one.

Back on the Indian bowlers. Why oh why do they bowl over the wicket? They essentially bowl a straight ball then. none has significant swing or cut which makes lefthanders squirn when facing. They also cut up the pitch for Lyons to bowl at their righthanders. bowling over the wicket means a better angle and thus more possible slip catches as well as cutting up the pitch for Ashwin! If you can swing the ball in to lefthanders as Shami clearly can you swing it more and later if you bowl over the wicket . This almost dissipates when you bowl around the wicket!

Assuming the hype is correct then it becomes a battle of the pace attacks. Which attack has recovered from the high temperatures of Adelaide?
Also important here is this might suit some batsman. I can't get batting Sharma out of my head here despite thinking it should be Kholi,

Remember too He knows three more draws and India win the series in Australia for the first time.

The worst thing about Perth.
Cricket Australia who put no money into the new stadium has determined in Australia of all places people cannot sit in the shade

Sorry but I forgot the link to After Grog blog Cricket

Tuesday, 11 December 2018

Macron is not looking good.

Macron came in a reform minded President.
Nothing wrong with that indeed France needs that HOWEVER he made two mistakes.

The first is we saw way back in 2012 you move on labour market de-regulation when the economy is strong not weak.
The second is a very french mistake. You know the best solution but you do not explain the policy and certainly not the benefits of the policy. The people must simply comply with the policy. Politicians of every colour and hue in France do this and demonstrations are the result, often quite violent and sometimes some politicians no longer have their jobs. It is bad for democracy.

Macron won because of his opponent . He is like Trump very vulnerable at the next Presidential election.

Here is Tyler Cowen.

Monday, 10 December 2018

The break up of Electricity Companies

Been a bit crook and even missed some of the test cricket.

Tony wood of the admirable Grattan Institute makes a number of good points in THIS article.

He neglects the issue of sovereign risk, He also does not discuss whether the private sector should be involved in the electricity industry. given it is an essential industry it is a textbook case of an industry should have NEVER been privatised and has been text book case of a complete and utter failure.

The only reason why the industry is not nationalised is because the States cannot afford it.

Thursday, 6 December 2018

Around the Traps 7/12/18

It is time for Around The Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Croaking Cassandra on thoughts-as-the-immigration-data-disappear, promoting-constructive-vigilance, un-compact-on-migration, i-didnt-move-to-australia-my-bank-came-to-me, abdicating-a-basic-responsibility, dont-legislate-depositor-preference
Aleesha Rodriguez on happy-birthday-sas-big-battery-and-many-happy-returns-of-your-recyclable-parts
Katherine Gerber and Luke McNamara on why-australias-anti-vilification-laws-matter
Samantha Hepburn on adanis-new-mini-version-of-its-mega-mine-still-faces-some-big-hurdles
Rodger Shanahan on veterans-fight-back-against-marketing-enemy-gates
Ross Gittins on budget-office-finds-bigger-picture-is-looking-ok
Michele Grattan on liberals-adopt-new-rule-to-stop-the-revolving-prime-ministership
Andrew Markus on australians-think-immigration-should-be-cut-well-it-depends-on-how-you-ask
Greg Jericho on there-is-no-way-we-will-meet-our-paris-targets-and-the-coalition-couldnt-care-less, is-australia-facing-a-lost-decade-in-living-standards
Darren Palmer on victorian-royal-commission-into-policing-needs-to-take-a-broad-approach-heres-why
Roger Dargaville et al on making-australia-a-renewable-energy-exporting-superpower
Mark the Ballot on steady-as-she-goes-coalition-on-46.2%
Ricardo Ambivalence on aussie-gdp-boom-revised-away
The Kouk on business-investment-in-recession-with-two-quarters-of-decline , change-of-view-on-monetary-policy, don-t-fall-for-the-spin-scott-morrison-s-budget-surplus-is-no-certainty
Bruce Mountain and Steven Perry on the-verdict-is-in-renewables-reduce-energy-prices-yes-even-in-south-australia
Jessica Richards and Keith Parry on australians-love-their-sport-but-investing-in-new-venues-is-another-matter
Richard Holden on vital-signs-35-extraordinary-years-what-the-float-of-australian-dollar-bought-us

Northern America

Kori Schake on america-vs-west
David Appell on right-wing-vs-left-wing-domestic-terrorism
the conversable economist on unauthorized-immigrants-to-us-continues-to-decline, excavating-layers-of-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-of-2017, us-not-source-of-chinas-growth
Macromania on does-floor-system-discourage-bank, working-more-for-less
Tyler Cowen on trade-war-china
Kruggers on climate-denial-trump-gop. Thanks Mark
Joseph Gagnon on feds-policy-implementation-framework Thanks Mark
FRBSF on review-of-unconventional-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
Alex Ward on jamal-khashoggi-saudi-arabia-mbs-corker-graham-trump
Nate Silver on how-fivethirtyeights-2018-midterm-forecasts-did
Brendan Taylor on us-prevent-china-dominated-asia
Brad De Long on four-components-of-multiplier-driving-spending
stumbling and mumbling on chaos-under-ed-miliband
Krisnadev Calamur and Kathy Gilsanan on republican-senators-white-house-saudi-arabia
Mathew Yglesias on weekly-standard-neoconservatives-trump-iraq-casualties
538 on trump-is-really-popular-in-rural-areas-other-places-not-so-much

Europe

Mainly Macro on experts and elites ,helping-left-behind-its-economic-geography-stupid
stumbling and mumbling on changing-the-agenda, a-behavioural-economic-case-for-brexit
Robert Waldmann on i-actually-really-disagree-with-paul-krugman-this-time
Victor Abrahamwicz on violence-confusion-and-conspiracy-theories-kerch-strait
Kruggers on brexit-borders-and-the-bank-of-england-wonkish Thanks Mark
Tyler Cowen on why-brexit-is-so-important

Asia

Robert E Kelly on why-denuclearisation-less-important-south-korea
The Grumpy Economist on summers-on-china, sumner-on-china-trade-in-ideas
Tyler Cowen on scott-sumner-china

Wonk

Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-what-are-the-drivers-of-tfp-growth-an-empirical-assessment
Luiz Gomez Romero on lopez-obrador-takes-power-in-mexico-after-an-unstable-transition-and-broken-campaign-promises
Merriden Varrall on xi-trump-g20-tariff-truce
Cassandras Legacy on the-6-most-stubborn-fake-news-in-history
Robert Waldmann on a-micro-founded-model-in-which-trade-causes-higher-productivity-growth
James Hamilton on measuring-monetary-policy-shocks
Tim Harford on the-untold-career-value-of-a-little-bit-of-luck
Understanding Society on is-corruption-social-thing, exercising-governments-will Thanks Mark
Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on e-pluribus-unum-single-vs-multiple-point-of-entry-resolution Thanks Mark
Promarket on antitrust-in-a-changing-economy-and-changing-economics Thanks Mark
Justin Fox on freelance-economy-is-both-old-and-young-big-and-small Thanks Mark
Barkley Rosser on mourning-death-of-new-world-order
Nick Rowe on explaining-si-inventories-vs-adding-up-individuals
Tobias Renkin et al on the pass through of minimum wages into US retail prices Thanks Brad

General

David Blair on new-detections-of-gravitational-waves-brings-the-number-to-11-so-far
Elisa Palazzo on design-for-flooding-how-cities-can-make-room-for-water

Climate

Edward Morgan et al on as-they-meet-in-poland-for-the-next-steps-nations-are-struggling-to-agree-on-how-the-ambitions-of-the-paris-agreement-can-be-realised
and Then Theres Physics on the-plausibility-of-rcp8-5, between-conflation-and-denial
Moyhu on november-ncepncar-global-surface-anomaly-down-0.1222C-from-October, november-global-surface-templs-down-0,161C-from-september
Skeptical Science on SkS_Analogy_16_Arctic_ice_sailboat_keels_wild_weather
Pep Canadell on carbon-emissions-will-reach-37-billion-tonnes-in-2018-a-record-high
Giles Parkinson on how-the-tesla-big-battery-became-the-heartbeat-of-australias-main-grid, why-coal-and-not-renewables-is-root-cause-of-surging-australia-power-prices
David Appell on edward-tellers-1959-warning-about-global-warming, 2018s-co2-increase-is-27-over-2017s
Open Mind on cooling-down-the-what

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

december-reading-for-econometricians
No Hesitations on dual-regression-and=prediction

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Tyler Cowen on fanfare-classical-music-meta-list-favorite-classical-music-year, mostly-returned-books

Vox wonk

Wednesday, 5 December 2018

The First Test Cometh

It really is not summer until the first test of cricket.

Why is the first test at Adelaide which has a just reputation for roads,

Why is it not in Brisbane which is the best cricket wicket in Australia. If you want to boost test cricket then use the best pitches!!
Moreover batsmen from overseas would find batting on the Brisbane pitch quite hard. It hopefully would have a greenish tinge in it, the ball should swing around and because of its wonderful bounce spinners get a go as well.

Let us go back o Adelaide. If it is the dreaded road then viewers will turn off in droves. The only positive vibe I can get is scores in the Sheffield Shield have not been that high. My problem with that is batting is not of a high quality though. Temperatures of 39 degrees C means a pitch that will spin on the last day

Looking at both sides and IF we get a contest between bat and ball then we have proven batsmen of the Indians against the best bowling lineup at test level.We also get a soso bowling lineup against a poor batting lineup. Two things here. Starc has not been the bowler he was of late. We need to see him bowl fast and swing the ball. I am also wary of Starc and Cummins breaking down more so if we bowl first when it is so hot.

If the pitch is a road then the toss will decide the test like in India. The teams that bats first get such a large total the team batting second because they are mentally gone. If India bat second they might draw it if Kholi is on fire and makes a double ton.

If it is a good pitch that is we get a contest between bat and ball the test could be a beauty. We should remember Pakistan beat us merely because Abbas bowled within the corridors of uncertainty alah glen McGrath. Ashwin has never had a good tour here because he bowls too quickly and does not use flight enough.He will spin it on the last day if he is bowling however.As we saw in England the Indian fast bowlers can swing the ball late so if the ball swings look out.

I am not as pessimistic as others for Australia. We are playing in our backyard. The pitches are unlikely to help bowlers unfortunately and we have a great attack.

In the end the series will be determined by which group performs better the Indian bowlers or the Aussie batsmen.
At least Mitchell Marsh is not playing in Adelaide although as my youngest son said he will still get a duck as 12th man!

Go to aftergrogblog.blogs.comcricket for some strong views on the match.

Tuesday, 4 December 2018

Very Fast Trains in Australia are a pipe dream.

We had yet another announcement yesterday from the NSW government of a VFT essentially for country and regional services.

It aint gonna work.

Why not. Well let me go back a long time when I did work for Cityrail as it was known then.
The XPT can only get to half it highest speed when in use at BEST. Why. Because of the track.

So any sort of very fast train would need brand spanking new tracks that go straight. That means buying up a lot of land for a start.
Next let us go to the customer base. Guess who use the XPT services by far the most? Pensioners who essential pay diddly squat for using the service. They visit their children in the bid smoke and then go back home.
It is highly ironic that a luxury bus service would cost less and get there faster than the XPT.

If you are going to create a newer customer base you would need much better track and varied times as the logical new base are people who live outside Sydney but work there.

This would create further pressures on housing prices in the Western suburbs as they would fall and people buy up in areas where they could catch the VFT.

Another problem is you could not have many stations for the said train to stop at otherwise it simply would not be fast.

In essence the NSW government would be subsiding people who live out of Sydney to work in Sydney as this service would never cover its costs.

Now I have only touched the surface but you can see a lot of problems. This explains why we have had so many announcements on such a project in NSW before anyone has looked at its viability.

Monday, 3 December 2018

Why is the fiscal policy being shown the wrong way.

We are in debt again to Ross Gittins. He is again on the case of examining fiscal policy on the basis of accrual accounting not cash accounting. This is probably because he is a former charted Accountant.

The PBO has done the legwork for us. They have to as you will only find cash accounting in commonwealth budget documents.
It is entirely misleading.
As the PBO shows us the future is looking good.
so why are officials not giving us the Budget in accrual accounting terms.

My guess is because they think their political masters will think there is no more work to do. Keeping cash accounting enables Treasury to say to Ministers they have to do more.

The Liberals adopt a bad rule.

Michele Grattan tells us of the Liberals essentially adopting ALP policy making almost impossible to topple a Prime Minister.
Why is this bad policy?

The Liberals under Tony Abbott and the ALP under Julia Gillard were heading for political oblivion. not getting rid of either would have been a disaster for either party.
It is stupidity of the highest order to maintain a leader who is heading for a disaster.