Around the Traps 29/9/17

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on productivity-and-employment , on-the-china-connections-and-our-democracy , a-first-unlawful-act , two-faces
• Ross Gittins on everyone-has-different-excuse-for-the-electricity-stuffup , closing-out-world-wont-fix-our-problems
• Joshua Gans on why-would-banks-eliminate-atm-fees
• Arial Liebman on baffled-by-baseload-dumbfounded-by-dispatchables-heres-a-glossary-of-the-energy-debate
• Dennis Muller on how-the-government-and-one-nation-may-use-media-reforms-to-clip-the-abcs-wings
• Andrew Hopkins on to-avoid-crisis-the-gas-market-needs-a-steady-steer-not-an-emergency-swerve
• Giovanni Di Lieto on why-australia-doesnt-face-sovereign-risk-in-the-gas-markets
• Greg Jericho on scott-morrisons-claim-that-living-standards-improve-will-be-met-with-a-hollow-laugh , the-markets-are-betting-on-a-rate-rise-by-mid-2018-im-not-so-sure , build-it-and-theyll-come-public-infrastructure-is-no-panacea
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-clock-strikes-twenty

Northern America

• Tim Duy on as-the-fed-abandoned-its-reaction-function Thanks Mark
• Jodie Beggs on causal-friday-some-real-effects-of-the-flint-water-crisis Thanks Mark
• James Fallows on Trumps shocking recklessness
• Ezra Klein on graham-cassidy-obamacare-health-care
• Mathew Yglesias on cassidy-graham-hypocrisy
• Macro Musings on the-future-path-of-monetary-base-and-why-it-matters
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on trapped-by-their-own-lies
• Brad De Long on what-is-the-us-tax-cut-plan-likely-to-look-like-live-at-project-syndicate
• Tim Duy on dueling-federal-reserve-presidents , nflation-weakness-is-temporary Thanks Mark
• Noahopinion on handwaving-on-health-care
• Brad Setser on puerto-rico-after-maria-initial-thoughts-fiscal-and-economic-implications Thanks Mark
• Jared Bernstein on real-tax-reform-what-it-and-what-it-isnt Thanks Mark
• Uri Friedman on trump-kim-words-korea
• Ryan Lizza on how-republicans-ditched-tax-reform-for-tax-cuts
• Carola Binder on an-inflation-expectations-experiment
• Macro Musings on the-future-path-of-monetary-base-and-why-it-matters
• The conversable economist on wealth-patterns-in-united-states
• Bruce Bartlett on i-helped-create-the-gop-tax-myth-trump-is-wrong-tax-cuts-dont-equal-growth Thanks Mark
• Justin Fox on the-trump-tax-reform-s-pass-through-boondoggle Thanks Mark
• Kathy Ruffing on ssi-doesnt-explain-decline-in-labor-force-participation-either
• Nate Silver on the-media-needs-to-stop-rationalizing-president-trumps-behavior

Europe

• Francesco Saraceno on a-german-model Thanks Mark
• Patricia Hogwood on angela-merkel-wins-a-fourth-term-in-office-but-it-wont-be-an-easy-one
• Mainly Macro on the-real-obstacle-for-brexit-negotiations , uber-and-anti-regulations-bandwagon , a-labour-run-on-sterling
• Kevin O'Rourke on is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition
• Daniel Woker on what-german-election-means-europe-and-world
• Coppolas comment on the-uks-political-crisis
• stumbling and mumbling on labours-understandable-brexit-confusion , brexit-&-austerity , mcdonnells-marxist-critics
• Frank Barry on the-life-and-death-of-protestants-businesses-in-independent-ireland

Asia

• Merisen Varrall on beijingers-keep-calm-and-carry
• Rodger Shanahan on leave-iran-nuclear-deal-alone
• Lydian Khalil on kurdistan-s-independence-referendum-precarious-steadfast
• Rebecca Richards and Rob Smith on kurdistan-after-vote-for-independence-whats-next 
• Peter McCawley on asian-development-bank-50-challenges-ahead
• Anee Marie Brady on resisting-china-s-magic-weapon
• Greg Earl on abe-gambles-on-stoic-japanese-electorate
• The conversable economist on demography-rebalances-asia
• Benjamin Habib on five-assumptions-we-make-about-north-korea-and-why-theyre-wrong
• Sam Roggeveen on what-us-doesnt-understand-about-china
• John Edwards on saudi-arabia-s-reforms-future-winners-present-losers

Wonk

• Tim Harford on trump-bannon-and-the-terrible-lure-of-zero-sum-thinking
• Stumbling and Mumbling on the-intelligent-state , ducking-questions-about-capitalism , the-impact-bias-against-labour
• Roger Farmer on on-refereeing-do-we-have-confidence-in-our-economic-institutions
• Barkley Rosser on how-i-came-to-no-longer-be-kaldorian-economist
• Regulatory Review on scalia-cost-benefit-analysis-reasoned-agency-decision-making Thanks Mark 
• Promarket on defeat-populist-plutocrats-build-counter-narrative Thanks Mark
• Jeffrey Frankel on financial-markets-crisis-risk Thanks Mark 
• Nick Gruen on information-and-the-structure-of-institutions-w-h-hutt-edition
• Uneasy Money on the-understanding-and-misunderstanding-imperfect-information
• IMF blog on the-disconnect-between-unemployment-and-wages Thanks Mark

General

• Economic Principals on engagement leavened with realism Thanks Mark
• The Conversable Economist on child-labor-in-decline
• Rodger Shanahan on war-reporting-101-check-your-sources

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on assessing-global-warming-2 , a-bit-more-about-carbon-budgets
• Real Climate on is-there-really-still-a-chance-for-staying-below-1-5-c-global-warming
• Ken Baldwin on renewables-will-be-cheaper-than-coal-in-the-future-here-are-the-numbers
• IMF blog on the-unequal-burden-of-rising-temperatures-how-can-low-income-countries-cope Thanks Mark
• Science of Doom on impacts-xiv-tropical-cyclones-and-climate-change-1
• Moyhu on nested-gridding-hadcrut-and-cowtanway

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• evidence-creativity-innovation-stimulated-college-sports-evidence-big-regression
• weisburds-paradox-criminology-can-explained-using-type-m-errors
• happened-recent-german-election
• cheerleading-agenda-press-covers-science
• abandon-statistical-significance
• automated-inference-criminality-using-high-tech-gigo-analysis
• value-set-act-represent-possibly-act-upon-aesthetics-ethics-logic
• somewhat-agreement-fritz-strack-regarding-replications
• ideas-using-virtual-reality-data-visualization-dont-really-agree-details-worth-discussing
• contribute-pubpeer-discussion
• mortality-rate-junkies
• Junkcharts on report-from-the-nba-hackathon-2017
• John Cook on quadratic-iteration-distribution
• statschat on simple-and-ineffective

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• misclassification-in-binary-choice
• how-good-is-that-random-number-generator
• Marc Bellamare on good things to those who weight
• No Hesitations on egalitarian-lasso-for-forecast-combination

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• hunting-for-the-51st-thing-suggestions-for-further-reading-or-listening
• Richard Holden on choosing-openness-grapples-big-questions
• Tim Harford on books-about-how-to-see-into-the-future

Vox Wonk

• winners-and-losers-china-s-commodities-manufactures-trade-boom
• how-firm-productivity-impacts-optimal-inflation-rate
• effects-euro-synchronisation-business-cycles
• eclipsing-libor
• why-single-sex-schools-are-more-successful
• global-value-chains-and-missing-us-exports
• signalling-content-asset-prices-inflation
• impact-tobacco-control-policies-smoking-initiation-europe
• internet-social-media-and-political-polarisation

The Poms hands us the Ashes

I am utterly astounded by the selection of the Ashes squad of the Poms.

It is pretty clear the wickets here will be fast and bouncy. Yes we do have a plethora of fast bowlers but fast and bouncy wickets are the best cricket wickets.

Bowlers win matches and I just cannot see how the poms will get us out twice. Anderson and Broad are way past their best and whilst they can take wickets in England they will struggle in Australia because they are now too slow and once the ball stops swinging  will be fodder. Ali flights the ball as one has to in Australia for a finger spinner but will only tie up an end at best.
Perhaps  one of the uncapped players is a fast bowler who wil perform on our wickets but I doubt it.

Their batting looks suspect as well. Cook whilst solid does not appear to hang around like he did in past years. This leaves root. A lot of pressure on him!

Stokes could do anything. However all rounders are usually inconsistent because of the workload.

I have a pommy friend around for dinner in February. I believe I will be crowing about a our Ashes success whilst drinking red wine!

Its a gas

The Gas companies have agreed to supply Australia with much needed gas. The price will remain high though.

One thing that has not been mentioned in all this. If gas prices in Sydney are higher than in Tokyo then guess where gas produces want to sell their gas.
We now have international  parity for gas pricing. It is a whole new board game.

Trump is an idiot part 304

Why does Trump go around and threaten North Korea. EVERYONE  ( even Steve Bannon for petes sake) knows he cannot do anything militarily.
If he did North Korea would bombard Seoul with huge amounts of artillery and missiles. hundreds of thousands if not millions would be dead.
The threats make him look foolish and simply increase the bombast between the two nations

We have know since the transcripts of his conversation between him ad our PM Malcolm Turnbull Trump is an imbecile. He takes forever to understand Australia's terrible refugee policy.

We also know now he cannot make a deal as we saw with his conversation with the Mexican president.

At the  moment we live in hope the grown ups advising will lead Trump down the right path.

There is nothing other than trade restrictions you can do with North Korea, Unfortunately they will not affect the elite but most of the NK population that their elite doesn't care about.

Every President since Clinton has threatened to make NK a nuclear pancake IF they attack an ally. This won;t happen.
Only Trump foolishly threatens military strikes if NK escalates its threats. His threats are hollow. He knows it, NK knows it and everyone else knows. It merely highlights his complete lack of understanding of the issue.

Bad Election results in New Zealand and Germany

We had elections on the weekend ( as any election should be) and the same governments look set to continue.

This is bad. Parties who stay in power for too long get tired, lose energy, run out of ideas etc. you need to have a turnover of Government after two terms to rectify this.

The Christian Democrats look set to remain in power in Germany but with a different coalition. the Nationals look set to continue in New Zealand but in a coalition. What is worse Winston Peters who has a very undistinguished life in NZ politics looks set to choose the government.

Both nations have ridiculous electoral systems. They should adopt the Australian Two part preferred voting system.

Only at Catallaxy

They are advertising the Ray Evans lecture over Catallaxy.

The Speaker is one Hugh Morgan.
Man whose integrity was found wanting not by one by by two courts in two different countries. ( Australia and Canada)

Says all you need to know

Around the Traps 22/9/18

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho onliving-standards-are-going-up-but-are-lower-than-six-years-ago-hardly-a-winning-argument
• Mardi Dungey and Ali Ghraremanlou on how-better-data-would-improve-the-electricity-market
• Croaking Cassandra on interest-rates-all-the-fuss-for-1-basis-point , employment: not all that spectacular , reforming-the-reserve-bank-2 , a-near-complete-cone-of-silence , the-political-cone-of-silence-with-slurs , productivity-growth-still-missing-in-action-2 , a-story-of-two-attorneys-general
• Paul Strangio on the-prime-ministership-is-not-terminal-but-it-needs-the-right-person-for-the-times
• Doverbeach on marriage-and-therapeutic-politics , a-defense-of-the-natural-family
• Ben White etal on as-victorian-mps-debate-assisted-dying-it-is-vital-they-examine-the-evidence-not-just-the-rhetoric
• Andrew Dunphy on preventing-murray-darling-water-theft-a-space-agency-can-help-australia-manage-federal-resources
• Tom Spurling and David Soloman on it-may-not-be-beautiful-but-the-new-ten-dollar-note-is-pretty-secure
• Judith Brett on alfred-deakin-s-strategic-thought
• Stephen Grenville on /managing-economic-risk-asia-strategy-australia
• Ross Gittins on tafe-mustnt-be-another-bad-deal-for-the-young , how-micro-reform-of-electricity-has-failed-us
• Andrew Blakers et al on want-energy-storage-here-are-22-000-sites-for-pumped-hydro-across-australia
• Jessica Meeuwig on more-than-1-200-scientists-urge-rethink-on-australias-marine-park-plans
• Nick Gruen on patricia-edgar-what-are-childrens-television-programs-and-should-we-preserve-them-part-one-of-three
• Stephen Duckett on australias-health-system-is-enviable-but-theres-room-for-improvement
• Jane Johnston on whose-interests-why-defining-the-public-interest-is-such-a-challenge
• TheKouk on an-update-on-government-debt, penny-pinching-on-education-leaves-the-nation-lagging
• John Quiggin on putting-the-blame-where-it-belongs

Northern America

• David Beckworth on monetary-regime-change-mission
• ProGrowth Liberal on does-single-payer-pay-for-itself
• The conversable economist on federal subsidies for health insurance , should-federal-reserve-buy-corporate-bonds
• Promarket on does-environmental-crime-pay Thanks Mark
• Tim Duy on fed-would-surprise-markets-if-it-stays-hawkish Thanks Mark
• John Cassidy on maintaining-full-employment-is-the-key-to-raising-wages , there-is-no-trump-doctrine-only-contradictions-and-bluster
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-august-housing-starts , a-few-comments-on-august-existing-home-clubs
• Menzie Chinn on cassidy-graham-implications-for-federal-health-spending
• Ezra Klein on graham-cassidy-obamacare-health-care
• noahopinion on the-margin-of-stupid
• James Hamilton on the-great-unwind-begins , another-event-to-study
• Roger Farmer on wheres-the-beef
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on cruelty-incompetence-and-lies
• David Beckworth on the-political-economy-of-shrinking-feds-balance-sheet
• Brad De Long on monday-delong-smackdown-noah-smith-free-speech-on-campus
• Perry Bacon on the-war-over-obamacare-may-never-end

Europe

• Bank Underground on 10-years-after-northern-rock-is-the-uk-more-or-less-likely-to-see-another-bank-run Thanks Mark
• The Conversable economist on antitrust-in-1520s
• Stumbling and Mumbling on corbyns-success-centrists-failure , the-harm-of-high-housing-costs
• Mainly Macro on productivity-and-monetary-policy
• RGS History on the-home-secretaries-2-churchill Thanks Jim Rose

Asia

• Grant Rumley on palestine-hamas-fatah-mahmoud-abbas-gaza-west-bank
• Charles Burton on will-china-do-the-right-thing-about-north-korea
• Andrew Exum on hezbollah-israel-lebanon-isis-syria-iran
• Abdullah Yusuf on myanmars-rohingyas-victims-of-a-democracy-still-under-military-sway
• Rhys Thompson on aung-san-suu-kyi-bent-constitutional-change
• Robin Wright on did-trump-just-make-iran-more-popular
• Brad Setser on thailand-currency-manipulator Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Mainly Macro on problems-with-triangulating-over-immigration , undergraduate- economics-moves-into-the-21st-century
• Nick Rowe on central-bank-communication-and-the-term-structure , two-ways-central-banks-can-do-monetary-policy-even-if-bitcoin-totally-replaces-dollars-as-medium-of-exchange
• Roger Farmer on indeterminacy-the-belief-function-and-reinventing-is-lm
• Josh Bivens and Dean Baker on the wrong tool for the right reasons Thanks Brad
• David Beckworth on is-larry-summers-fan-of-ngdp-level-tergeting
• Brad Setser on global-cost-eurozones-2012-fiscal-coordination-failure Thanks Mark
• Biaggo Bossone et al on fiscal-money-tax-rebate-certificates
• long and variable on bitcoin-and-the-lender-of-last-resort-function
• Promarket on antitrust-labor-market-protectionist-pro-competitive
• Noah Smith on why-workers-are-losing-to-capitalists
• Mordecai Kurz on monopoly-power-wealth-income-inequality Thanks Mark
• The conversable economist on imperfect-information-is-it-for-or-against-free-markets

General

• Dan Crawford on on-the-relationship-between-wahhabism-and-salafism
• Brian Resnik on cassini-finale-2017-nasa-photo-beautiful-wow
• Understanding Society on worker-owned-enterprises-as-social-solution 
• Lorenzo on the-persistence-of-belief-in-socialism
• David Griffin on ive-always-wondered-why-is-the-flu-virus-so-much-worse-than-the-common-cold-virus

Climate

• Moyhu on grids-platonic-solids-and-surface-temperature
• Stochastic Trend on  different-ways-of-thinking-about-carbon-budgets
• Ed Hawkins on are-the-models-running-too-hot
• John Abraham on it takes 4 years to detect human warming in oceans 
• Graham Readfearn on attacks-on-bureau-of-meteorology-pushed-by-fever-swamp-of-climate-denial-former-director-says
• and Then Theres Physics on more-time-really , avoiding-dangerous-to-catastrophic-climate-change 

Andrew General (mainly stats)

• where-does-the-discussion-go
• maybe this paper is a parody
• 2010s-never-happened
• p-less-0-00000000000000000000000000000000-now-thats-call-evidence
• using-black-box-machine-learning-predictions-inputs-bayesian-analysis
• not-enough-good-person-conscientious-also-need-good-measurement-cargo-cult-science-done-conscientiously-doesnt-become-good-science-just-falls-apart-ow
• will-stanton-hit-61-home-runs-season
• getting-right-uncertainties-fitting-multilevel-models
• Dr Nic on political-polls-why-they-work-or-dont
• Junkcharts on getting-into-the-heads-of-the-chart-designer
• John Cook on randomized-response-privacy-and-bayes-theorem
• Statschat  on takes-two-to-tango-2

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• monte-carlo-simulations-simdesign
• misclassification-in-binary-choice
• Jodie Beggs on causal-friday-fun-with-gender-discrimination-now-with-more-bad-econometrics Thanks Mark
• No Hesitations on machine-learning-meets-central-banking , national-bank-of-poland
• Stochastic Trend on http://stochastictrend.blogspot.com.au ( no direct link)

Dianne Coyle (quirky + reviews)

• founder-of-the-information-age
• pricing-progress-yes-please
• James Fallows on its-worth-reading-hillary-clintons-book
• Tim Harford on ideas-about-the-past-present-and-future-of-the-economy

Vox wonk

• firm-efficiency-foreign-ownership-and-ceo-gender
• alternative-f-r-deutschlands-electoral-success-shadow-nazi-voting
• fundamental-errors-voting-booth
• banking-reform-nine-years
• rise-robots-german-labour-market
• empirical-analysis-peer-peer-lending
• economists-respond-juncker-s-state-union-speech
• ideas-aren-t-running-out-they-are-getting-more-expensive-find
• kinship-cooperation-and-culture
• forward-guidance-paradox
• north-atlantic-crisis-and-its-aftermath
• benefits-central-bank-digital-currency
• riding-energy-transition-oil-beyond-2040

Bigotry live on the radio

Richard Glover does the drive time show on the old 2BL for the ABC.
He is a pretty likable bloke. He is for the same same marriage but likes to hear all views.
Go hear him interview an employer who sacked a contractor for saying on facebook it is all right to say no. It starts around the 2 hour mark.
She says the contractor was a homophobe and what she said was hate speech!

Richard is non plussed at her actions. He attempts to get a rational reason out of her for her actions. He doesn't, Indeed she in the end hands up on him.

It is bigotry live on the radio!

Are Climate models running too hot?

Ed Hawkins has a short but informative article on the above topic.

Highly recommended

Europe did way too much fiscal consolidation

Via the Marvellous Mark Thoma Brad Setser writes an article where he is highly critical of fiscal policy in Europe around 2012.

He actually uses material from Banque De France. Let us hope officials in Europe have done some reflection and learnt the lessons of poof fiscal policy!

This is very difficult for fans of classical economics. They clearly adopted contractionary fiscal policies whilst still having deficits. They always think deficits equals stimulus! Our mate Katesy and the rest of the economic geniuses at Catallaxy all thought Europe adopted expansionary fiscal policies when they were clearly contractionary!

Parking in the Suburbs

I live at Eastwood and it has a train station so we get a lot of cars parking from people who use the train. What a lot of people have done is to put in white lines to show people where they can park their cars. At least two families have been parked in by people parking in their drive ways!
I recently put in lines as cars park in our space now. The lines show that essentially only a motor bike can park there.

Despite this A large car parked in the area yesterday going well over the painted white lines. The driver blatantly ignored the white lines.

I can now understand how on walking back home I observe cars parked well over the white lines and into the driveway having flat tyres!!

On the Relationship between Wahabbism and Salafism

Dan Crawford at Angry Bear writes a very interesting article on on-the-relationship-between-wahhabism-and-salafism. 
It is a must read IMHO

Around the Traps 15/9/17

It is time again for around the traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on turnbull-morrison-holding-their-own-on-the-economy
• Samuel Brookfield on is-evidence-for-or-against-drug-testing-welfare-recipients-it-depends-on-the-result-were-after
• John Quiggin on how-to-replace-the-national-electricity-market
• Croaking Cassandra on spencer-appointment-still-appears-unlawful , who-will-build-the-houses , scattered-thoughts-on-tax-and-fiscal-policy , working-more-not-getting-more-productive
• The Kouk on turnbull-and-morrison-don-t-talk-about-unemployment-it-s-a-deliberate-but-dodgy-cop-out
• Allan Pears on more-coal-doesnt-equal-more-peak-power
• Peter Whiteford on income-inequality-ticks-down-as-the-rich-see-their-incomes-fall-abs
• Greg Jericho on new-abs-data-proves-it-scares-about-growing-welfare-dependency-are-rubbish , flat-household-incomes-means-more-of-the-budget-goes-on-basics
• Olivia Shen on test-australia-marawi
• Alan Oxley on whither-australian-trade-policy
• Andrew Lynch on the-lionel-murphy-papers-shed-more-light-on-a-controversial-life
• Tim Dwyer on media-reform-deals-will-reduce-diversity-and-amount-to-little-more-than-window-dressing
• David Walker on xenophons-news-cadetship-madness-hey-lets-expand-the-supply-of-junior-journalists
• Sam Roggeveen on suicide-note-why-turnbull-rhetoric-will-no-longer-wash

Northern America

• Progrowth liberal on what-is-reasonable-royalty-for-restasis
• Larry Summers on leading-with-tax-cuts-is-dangerous-policy Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on few-words-dollar Thanks Mark 
• The Conversable economist on health-insurance-coverage-in-us
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-mostly-below-2%-in-August
• Nick Bunker on value-added/markups-macroeconomics-and-the-changing-u-s-economy , jolts-day-graphs-july-2017-report-editionThanks Brad
• Perry Bacon on 4-theories-to-explain-why-trump-is-suddenly-working-with-democrats
• Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendoca on trump-domestic-infrastructure-investment
• Tim Duy on fed-may-have-too-much-faith-in-inflation-forecasts
• Caroline Freund on trade-investment-policy-watch/us-content-requirement-nafta-could-hurt-manufacturing Thanks Mark
• Carola Binder on consumer-forecast-revisions

Europe

• The conversable economist on netherlands-2-food-exporter-in-world
• Mainly Macro on cherry-picking-economic-statistics-and-project-fear
• Aidan Regan on ccctb-bye-bye-irish-veto

Asia

• Sebatian Strangio on aung-san-suu-kyi-myth-turns-dust
• Olivia Shen on time-bhutan-speak
• Frances Kitt on china-no-country-old-men
• Michael Kugleman on modi-banking-on-jobs-make-india
• Trevor Findlay on north-korea-tests-not-just-a-bomb-but-the-global-nuclear-monitoring-system

Wonk

• Economic Principals on enigmas wrapped up in riddles Thanks Mark
• Noahopinion on a16z-podcast-on-trade
• Roger Farmer on behavioural-new-keynesian-macroeconomics
• Jim Rose on many-household-appliances-have-not-gone-up-in-price-much-at-all
• Stephen Grenville on new-proposal-normalise-us-monetary-policy
• stumbling and mumbling on economic-roots-of-post-truth-politics
• Nick Gruen on meanwhile-in-an-echo-chamber-near-you
• Mainly Macro on revolutions-in-economic-policy , economists-show-how-fox-news-changes
• Uneasy Money on milton-friedman-and-the-chicago-school-of-debating
• Thomas Piketty on re-thinking-the-capital-code
• John Cassidy on a-new-way-to-learn-economics
• coppolla comment on we-need-to-talk-about-productivity
• Eric Lonergan on intelligent-money-valuing-bitcoin
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-eqchange-a-worldwide-database-on-actual-and-equilibrium-effective-exchange-rates
• stumbling and mumbling on uk-vs-us-capitalism
• Nouriel Roubini on monetary-policy-missing-inflation Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on china-isn-t-the-only-reason-to-question-free-trade
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on why-the-central-bank-should-be-a-leading-supervisor
• Promarket on intellectual-property-laws-wolves-sheeps-clothing Thanks Mark 

General

• Understanding society on responding-to-hate Thanks Mark
• David Crowe on value-reporting-on-the-ground
• John Holbo on robert-heinlein-writes-letters-to-editors-and-librarians
• Jennie Rennie Short on paris-and-los-angeles-bids-to-host-olympics-expose-deeper-crisis-at-olympic-games
• Paul Fritjers on is-catholicism-in-rude-health-2017-edition
• Ed Kruzins and Richard Stephenson on mission-over-the-final-countdown-to-cassinis-fatal-plunge-into-saturn
• Sophia Casanova and Andrew Dempster on ice-mined-on-mars-could-provide-water-for-humans-exploring-space

Climate

• Andrew King on irma-and-harvey-very-different-storms-but-both-affected-by-climate-change
• and Then Theres Physics on its-complicated-and-its-coupled
• Chris Turney etal on how-antarctic-ice-melt-can-be-a-tipping-point-for-the-whole-planets-climate
• Grant Cox et al on ancient-volcanic-eruptions-disrupted-earths-thermostat-creating-a-snowball-planet
• Diana Schoder on climate-change-economics-discount-rate-sustainability Thanks Mark
• Andrew Kleckociuk and Paul Krummel on after-30-years-of-the-montreal-protocol-the-ozone-layer-is-gradually-healing
• Menzie Chinn on wildfires-acres-burned-suppression-costs

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• trust-data-political-news-consumption
• looking-bottom-line
• god-goons-gays-3-quick-takes
• conditioning-post-treatment-variables-can-ruin-experiment
• seemed-destruction-done-not-choose-two
• trial-by-combat
• causal-inference-using-data-non-representative-sample
• american-democracy-critics
• new-zealand-election-polling
• type-m-errors-studied-wild
• type-m-errors-wild-really-wild
• Flowing Data on comparing-the-strength-of-hurricane-irma-against-previous-hurricanes
• John Cook on negative-correlation-introduced-by-success
• Statschat on thresholds-and-discards-again
• Kaiser Fung on surge-protectors-as-teaching-tools , time-to-dust-off-my-digital-marketing-talks

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• econometrics-reading-list-for-september

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• inequality-revisited
• late-night-ethics

Vox wonk

• chinas-hidden-shipbuilding-subsidies
• electoral-gender-quotas-fail-empower-women
• methods-pricing-options-19th-century
• why-loan-syndication-risky-business
• myth-surplus-peasants-and-china-s-growth
• headline-inflation-measures-shouldn-t-ignore-costs-home-ownership
• role-government-providing-long-term-care
• ethnic-discrimination-also-matter-taste
• aid-trade-and-trade-services
• corporate-governance-and-organised-crime-italy
• market-liquidity-after-financial-crisis
• inefficient-short-time-work
• artificial-intelligence-service-business-operations
• effect-fertility-mothers-labour-supply
• global-poverty-revisited
• midlife-low-human-beings
• great-recession-case-flexible-exchange-rates-alive-and-well
• genetic-diversity-high-school-and-later-life-outcomes

coal and peak power

I am constantly bemused by people who claim that only a new coal fired electricity plant can deliver lower power prices. This is of course badly wrong. coal is more expensive than either solar or wind. more over technology means solar and wind prices are continually to fall whereas coal continues to stay high and this is without a price on carbon to cover the externalties it generates.

Alan Pears writes a very informative article on all this. As a bonus the latest from the ever excellent Grattan Institute on the electricity market.

I should have said something about the government's tactics. It is very short term They hope to convince voters that coal is the answer to lower power prices. This would obviously blow up when power prices do not fall. It seems 'right wing' government MPs believe the Finkel report is incorrect and coal is the way to go. although they claim to believe in markers they reject what the markets are now saying about NEW coal plants. No-one has proposed one and no-one wants to finance one.

What I am watching

I am sick about the policy problems confronting us here and overseas so today I think I will leave a short comment on some TV shows I am watching.

ABC
I have watched/ watching a couple of ripper pommy crime drams. Firstly there was Unforgotten and at present there is Shetland.

72
There are a few 'dated' series on 72 I find enjoyable. The oldest is A Touch of Frost. although dated it still holds up well.
Inspector George Gently is unique in that it could well be the only series Martin Shaw acts well in.  I have talked about Lewis before. The Murdoch Mysteries has declined in quality. The romantic lead does not work.

I think I might go back and watch The Virginian! Anyone have the series on DVD at all?

LIddell power station

The conversation concerning Liddell power is extraordinary.

The NSW government sold the power station to AGL for essentially nothing. Another VERY important inducement was the pride of coal for the plant. It is lower than the marker price and will continue to be until it ends its operating life.

The Federal Government apparently wants AGL to continue Liddell five or ten years past its operating life.It is not offering thew company extra dosh for this. It is saying it is their civic duty to do so.
One would think if AGL was making easy money from Liddell then it would continue to use the station until it didn't. In other words it can only be closing the plant because the return is not there for its shareholders.
It is extraordinary that the Liberal and National parties are now the parties of command and control, of directing companies what to do.

If the Government wants to do something about power then it could introduce a price on carbon. After all coal is subsidised at present because it does not cover externailites at all. The carbon emissions and pollutants are not covered in its costs.
At worst it should adopt a clean energy target as recompensed by the  Finkel report. This would lead to investment in the industry. Investment that is not occurring at present.
The other great thing of this is you get rid of subsidies.
It would be stupid in the extreme to get rid of subsidies to renewables whilst coals lamentable externalities are not part of their costing structure. It would NOT be a level playing field.

Ben Oquist has an interesting article. John Quiggin does not believe in baseload either.

Indeed he writes about how-to-replace-the-national-electricity-market

Same Sex marriage

I have not written about this topic and really should.

It is not possible for same sex partners to be equal to heterosexual partners. A husband and wife and then usually father and mother are not the same and therefore not equal to a husband and husband or wife and wife.
What a homosexual couple do to have children is cheat on the partner through either normal sex or technology. It would be like saying to my wife if I was infertile for whatever reason have sex with my brother so we can have children. It matters little whether they do this in bed or via technology. It merely makes a mockery of the marriage.

And I should also state the late evil Lionel Murphy did  indeed make a mockery of marriage with his very detectable divorce laws in 1974. It doesn't take same sex marriage to do that!

Finally any person who claims to be a christian and support same sex marriage is a complete idiot. A christian supporting same sex marriage is like one supporting adultery! I have said more than once being a homosexual is not sinful. Engaging in any act outside of marriage ( and god defines marriage as between a man and a woman Jesus even quoted Genesis to this extent ) means any homosexual ACT will always be sinful as is adultery or fornication for heterosexuals

I could say more but what is the point when this brilliant essay has been written. (Thanks to the ABC of all places). Sorry but hat tip to Doverbeach for the essay. Sorry  Dover!

Here is Doverbeach

Around the Traps 8/9/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Caroline Fisher on its-reputation-that-matters-when-spin-doctors-go-back-to-the-newsroom
• Croaking Cassandra on consistently-dismal-relative-productivity-growth , a-depressing-debate , tougher-than-ruth-richardson-implausible-spending-numbers , the-big-projected-deficits-in-2008 , eastern-and-central-europe-and-us
• Greg Jericho on economic-news-is-good-for-the-government-but-will-it-trickle-down-before-the-next-election
• Ross Gittins on econocrats-job-to-minimise-damage-from-lurch-to-populism, its-business-that-has-greatest-sense-of-entitlement
• John Quiggin on the-minerals-council-of-australia-pushing-zombie-ideas
• Linley Lutton on retrofitted-cities-are-forcing-residents-to-live-with-planning-failures-were-due-for-a-rethink
• Julie Walker on why-australian-ceos-are-sharing-part-of-our-wages-pain
• John Edwards on austraian-economy-not-so-exceptional-after-all
• David Blowers on the-day-australia-was-put-on-blackout-alert
• Nick Gruen on good-old-collingwood-forever-speech-to-the-australian-evaluation-society-annual-conference
• Roy Green on what-would-it-take-to-raise-australian-productivity-growth
• doverbeach on sheridan-contra-aquinas
• Frank Jotzo and Zeba Anjum on the-true-cost-of-keeping-the-liddell-power-plant-open 
• Michael Wilson and Monique Mann on police-want-to-read-encrypted-messages-but-they-already-have-significant-power-to-access-our-data
• The Kouk on growth-prospects-remain-mixed-across-the-country , why-the-rba-refuses-to-cut-rates
• Clair Higgins on australia-s-long-history-offshore-detention

Northern America

• Amy Zegart on deterrence-malpractice
• Amy Davidson-Sorkin on donald-trumps-reckless-response-to-north-koreas-test
• Menzie Chinn on us-withdrawal-from-korus
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on why-cant-we-get-cities-right
• Norm Scheiber on Trump labor policy
• The Conversable economist on some-economics-for-labor-day , breaking-down-black-white-wage-gap , the-limited-exposure-of-us-economy-to-trade
• Jennifer Rubin on trump-ending-daca-would-be-cruelty-wrapped-in-a-web-of-lies Thanks Brad
• Calculated Risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-Presidents , prime-working-age-population-near-2007-peak
• Kruggers on the-very-bad-economics-of-killing-daca
• Larry Summers on cohn-had-a-bad-day-with-facts Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-mediocre-to-solid-data-flow-but-weak-inflation-still-key , fed-watch-can-she-do-it-again, fed-watch-the-times-they-are-a-changin , fed-watch-fed-round-up-for-september-7
• Econbrowser on market-expectations-regarding-successful-raising-of-the-debt-ceiling
• New Deal Democrat on the-august-jobs-report-smacked-of-late-cycle-deceleration
• Brad De Long on republican-tax-cuts-budget-deficit
• Noah Smith on don-t-believe-what-jeff-sessions-said-about-jobs
• noahopinion on an-american-whitopia-would-be-dystopia
• Ann Maris Barry-Jester on the-end-of-daca-will-ripple-through-families-and-communities
• Joseph Joyce on trump-and-international-finance

Europe

• nuttin

Asia

• John Carlson on north-korean-nuclear-crisis-talks-still-best-option
• Alex Ward on north-korea-nuclear-test-september-3
• Crispin Rovere on north-korea-trump-s-terrible-binary-choice
• Andray Abrahamian on tadmadaw-ominous-return-four-cuts-doctrine
• Benjamin Habib on trump-cant-win-the-north-korea-crisis-is-a-lose-lose-proposition-for-the-us
• Nick Bisley on kim-jong-uns-nuclear-ambition-what-is-north-koreas-endgame
• Christopher Hill on north-korea-trump-china-south-korea-hydrogen-nuclear
• Pradeep Taneja on when-it-comes-to-north-korea-china-is-happy-to-make-trump-squirm
• Milton Osborne on bleak-view-southeast-asia
• Rodger Shanahan on syria-momentum-now-with-assad
• B R Myers on what-the-west-gets-wrong-about-north-koreas-motives-and-why-some-south-koreans-admire-the-north
• Abhijit Singh on indian-ocean-leadership-delhi-boasts-ignore-reality
• Graeme Smith on china-toxic-nationalism

Wonk

• Mainly Macro on could-independent-central-banks-be-advisory , defining-austerity-redux
• Robert Waldmann on nawru-constructive-proposals
• Adair Turner on normalization-delusion-global-recovery Thanks Brad
• Brad Setser on looking-back-impact-real-exchange-rate-moves-exports Thanks Mark
• Uneasy Money on in-the-general-theory-keynes-first-trashed-and-then-restated-the-fisher-equation , defining-currency-manipulation-for-scott-sumner, milton-friedman-says-that-the-rate-of-interest-is-not-the-price-of-money-dont-listen-to-him
• Noahopinion on realism-in-macroeconomic-modeling 
• The Conversable economist on middle-east-economic-challenges-as-role-of-fossil-fuel-declines
• Economistsdoitwith models on the-most-depressing-instrument-ever-fox-news-edition Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on david-vs-goliath-the-supermarkets-battle-for-the-consumer Thanks Mark

General

• Neil Wilkins on qanda-what-earthquake-science-can-tell-us-about-north-koreas-nuclear-test
• Chris Mackie on guide-to-the-classics-homers-odyssey

Climate

• David Appell on how-fast-is-probability-of-extreme-temperatures-increasing , richard-muller-on-moving-from-agw.-sceptic-to believer
• Variable Variability on geo-intervention
• moyhu on august-ncepncar-global-anomaly-up-0038
• and Then Theres Physics on climate-model-tuning, beyond-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity
• Stoat on nasa-scientists-seek-to-improve-sea-ice-predictions
• Real Climate on why-extremes-are-expected-to-change-with-a-global-warming
• Brian Resnick on permafrost-melting
• James Empty blog on more-on-bayesian-approaches-to-detection-and-attribution
• Michelle Nijhuis on oregons-eagle-creek-fire-and-the-new-reality-of-life-in-the-smoke-filled-american-west
• Alexa Halford et al on massive-sunspots-and-huge-solar-flares-mean-unexpected-space-weather-for-earth

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• cause-breast-cancer-specific-mortality-assignment-mammography-control
• iterative-importance-sampling
• rosenbaum-1999-choice-alternative-control-observational-studies
• gigo-update-electoral-integrity-project
• never-total-eclipse-prior
• design-conduct-subgroup-analysis
• local-data-centralized-data-analysis-local-decision-making
• touch-want-feel-data
• fundamental-abstractions-underlying-bugs-stan-probabilistic-programming-languages
• unfair-to-traditional-pollsters
• too-much-backscratching-happy-talk-junk-science-gets-share-reputation-respected-universities
• David Stern on confidence-intervals-for-journal-impact
• Rick Wicklin on 7-ways-to-view-correlation
• John Cook on width-of-mixture-pdfs , highly-cited-theorems

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• No Hesitations on more-on-new-p-value-thresholds

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• origins-of-different-kinds
• best-friends
• true-wealth
• high-hopes-growth
• Tim Harford on undercover-monday-ideas-about-decision-making
• Bradford De Long on ten-good-recent-books

Vox Wonk

• new-database-actual-and-equilibrium-exchange-rates
• welfarist-role-non-welfarist-rules
• integration-economic-history-economics
• impact-housing-market-wage-inequality-spain
• secular-stagnation-versus-technological-shock-scenarios
• spending-cuts-may-be-recessionary-revenue-increases
• us-trade-wars-emerging-countries-21st-century
• helping-people-make-better-financial-decisions-insight-empowerment
• economic-consequences-mr-kim-s-threats
• china-shock-why-germany-different
• whistleblowers-board-role-independent-directors-cartel-prosecutions
• new-paradigm-introductory-course-economics
• social-connectedness-measurement-determinants-and-effects
• routinisation-globalisation-and-fall-labour-s-share-income
• relationship-between-mutual-fund-firms-and-their-key-employees

Energy Policy is a mess

Energy policy has been a mess ever since Tony Abbott made the decision to say the price on carbon was a carbon tax. This was of course a lie that his Chief of Staff has now fessed up to.

Since then we had had an investment strike purely because the Coaliton has no idea of what to do.

A price on carbon would be preferable. however it seems the 'right wing' rabble of the coalition willnever countenance that
It seems as the Clean Energy target that was announced in the Finkel Report is the nearest we may get to a bipartisan policy. Even then it seems the same 'right wing' rabble will not even cop this. As David Blowers shows this is essential.( it has heaps of links in it)

New coal plants are impossible. The market has spoken. no bank wants to finance such a plant nor are there any ideas to issue bonds to fund such a plant.
Isn't it ironic that people who claim to believe in the market then want to criticise market players when they do not do things they think they should do!

It is clear renewables are reducing in cost dramatically and will continue to do so. My guess is by 2022 when Liddell goes out of action batteries for solar electricity on rooftops will be so cheap most homes will have them but it is only a guess.
It is clear we will need a suite of different plants to ensure electricity blackouts do not occur.
I would have preferred nuclear but as John Quiggin shows this will not occur.

We will NEVER go back to ultra cheap electricity again.however as Finkel showed we can getr them to fall modestly.

Check out this oldish report from the very good Grattan Institute.

Also from Knowledge Problem on OECD articles. thanks Jim Rose