Lack of Hope in America

A fascinating article on this topic in Friday's Around the Traps from 'vox wonk'.
Whereas 'poor blacks in the USA have hope in the USA 'poor' whites do not.

Thus 'poor' whites suffer from depression much more than disadvantaged minorities in the USA.

Les Murray RIP

Les Murray or Mr Football has died.

Those of us who love the World Game are very sad at this. He and Johnny Warren were compulsive viewing. Yes they made mistakes in their prognostications but who cared it was great television and their passion for the world game was undeniable.
Les was a refugee from Hungary. He would not have been able to get to Australia let alone live here these days. As he tirelessly told people he only got out of Hungary via a people smuggler.
He came here, changed his name so it was anglicised and was an instant hit on SBS ( known affectionately as soccer bloody soccer).

He was a passionate and tireless supporter of football and could roll his tongue around any foreign name better than anybody.

Thanks Mate

See Roy Hay , Paul Connolly

Obamacare was a very conservative policy

One of the reasons Republicans are finding it very hard to repeal and replace Obamacare is because it was a very conservative policy.
See:

• Craig Garthwaite
• Kruggers

Republicans could have rejoiced and said we have won in the battle of ideas when it was implemented. Instead they battled to the very end to destroy it. It was for very political reasons. Obama could not have a victory.

The other thing of course Republicans then railed against obamacare but never put any thought into how this could be done.

Very sad.

Around the Traps 28/7/17

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Naomi Priest et al on domestic-violence-and-australian-churches-why-the-current-data-have-limitations
• Croaking Cassandra on vision-measurement-and-achievement , nonsense-repeated-endlessly-is-still-nonsense , keep-an-eye-on-the-earth-not-the-stars , some-productivity-snippets
• Ross Gittins on big-business-influence-wanes-as-public-rejects-bizonomics , how-were-scammed-by-our-fear-of-terrorism
• Liz Allen on factcheck-qanda-the-facts-on-birth-rates-for-muslim-couples-and-non-muslim-couples-in-australia
• Clive Williams on national-security-changes-australian-style
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-are-malcolms-newspolls-worse-than-tonys
• Antony Green on section-44i-strikes-again-senator-canavan-makes-three
• Julia Azari on why-russia-revelations-never-seem-to-change-anything
• Stephen Grenville on what-nafta-renegotiation-means-to-australia
• Helen Irving on constitutions-wide-net-catches-even-mps-who-had-no-idea-theyre-foreign-citizens
• John Quiggin on most-australians-ineligible-for-parliament
• Helen Irving on constitutions-wide-net-catches-even-mps-who-had-no-idea-theyre-foreign-citizens
• Dale Boccabella on family-trusts-often-cause-more-harm-than-good
• Ross Thompson on is-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-broken

Northern America

• Frances Woolley on where-did-all-the-immigrants-go-a-fascinating-puzzle-with-a-mundane-solution
• Mike Kimel on more-on-police-shootings-and-race
• Lorenzo on the-race-delusion-in-american-politics-and-society
• Zack Beachamp and Andrew Prokop on robert-mueller-fbi-trump-russia-explained
• Zac Beauchanp on jared-kushner-russia-letter-statement
• Julia Ioffe on kushner-statement-russia
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-june-existing-home-sales , real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-May , a-few-comments-on-june-new-home-sales
• Justin Fox on yes-financial-crises-do-bring-hangovers Thanks Brad
• The Conversable economist on housing-prices-highs-and-lows
• Ryan Lizza on how-jared-kushner-helped-the-russians-get-inside-access-to-the-trump-campaign
• Tim Duy on easier-financial-conditions-will-keep-the-fed-on-track Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on monday-smackdown-republican-economists-burn-yet-more-of-their-reputations-department
• Narayana Kocherlakota on don-t-let-the-dollar-fool-you-fed Thanks Mark
• Progrowth Liberal on the-hasset-laffer-curve-and-that-norwegian-outlier
• Mathew Yglesias on senate-republicans-health-care-lies
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-fomc-snoozefest
• Simnon Johnson on trump-administration-growth-assumption Thanks Mark

Europe

• Mainly Macro on lexit , why-owen-jones-is-wrong-about-brexit, the-uk-slowdown-is-result-of-brexit-and-austerity
• Tim Harford on why-we-need-to-build-more-homes
• stumbling and mumbling on in-defence-of-the-state-pension , trade-deal-yawn

Asia

• James Goldrick on china-s-intelligence-gathering-sea-some-implications
• Iain Henry on empathising-with-china
• Ryosuke Hanada on abe-troubles-home-cause-concern-abroad
• Elliot Brennan on three-issues-impeding-myanmar-s-transition

Wonk

• Macro Musings on assorted-musings
• The Conversable Economist on the-cycles-of-cities , food-for-thought-on-jobs-tidbits-from-Solow, Gershon , Mokyr , summer-2017-journal-of-economic-perspectives , the-limited-liability-corporation-is-the-greatest-single-discovery-in-modern-times , price-dispersement-and-bargain-hunting
• stumbling and mumbling on asymmetric-policies , cronyism-the-demand-for-redistribution , the-ideology-of-the-market
• Uneasy Money on hayek-deflation-and-nihilism , hayek-deflation-and-nihilism-a-popperian-postscript
• Ryan Avent on making-monetary-policy-great-again Thanks Brad
• Brad Setser on can-fed-and-ecb-work-together-reduce-imbalances Thanks Brad 
• Promarket on markets-europe-opened-guild-monopolies-declined-sixteenth-century Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on marriage-and-wages
• Economonitor on john-maynard-keynes-and-effective-macroeconomic-policy Thanks Mark
• Carola Binder on the-obesity-code-and-economists-as-general-practioners
• Promarket on where-friedman-was-wrong Thanks Mark

General

• Understanding  Society on a-new-model-of-organization , contingency-and-explanationThanks Mark
• Euan Ritchie et al on scientific-integrity-must-be-defended-our-planet-depends-on-it
• Robert flower on blood-groups-beyond-a-b-and-o-what-are-they-and-do-they-matter

Climate

• Variable Variability on nitpicking-climate-doomsday-warning-allowed
• Open Mind on sea-level-rise-is-accelerating , does-willis-eschenbach-have-any-honor, boston-sea-level , sea-level-rise-has-accelerated , a-few-other-stations , understanding-sea-level-rise
• The Conversable Economist on facts-about-carbon-emissions-from-oil-gas-and-coal
• David Schlosberg on on-the-origins-of-environmental-bullshit
• Adrian Macey on how-trade-policies-can-support-global-efforts-to-curb-climate-change
• David Appell on new-ocean-heat-content-data-is-out

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• recently-in-the-sister-blog-4
• adding-predictor-can-increase-residual-variance
• multilevel-modeling-can-cannot-do
• died-in-the-wool
• conversation-dump-social-psychology-ultimately-blame-statisticians
• /delegate-at-large
• Flowing Data on an-interactive-to-explain-histograms-for-normal-people , trust
• Junkcharts on another-simple-excel-chart-needs-help
• Kaiser Fung on if-you-are-using-facebook-ads-split-testing-ab-testing-stop-fooling-yourself
• John Cook on bayesian-methods-at-bletchley-park
• The do loop on random-segments-broken-sticks

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• Marc Bellamare on achieving statistical significance with covariates , follow up
• No Hesitations on on-origin-frequentist-statistics , time-series-regression-discontinuity
• Econometric sense on regression-as-variance-based-weighted-average-treatment-effect
• Miles Kimball on lets-set-half-a-percent-as-the-standard-for-statistical-significance Thanks Mark
• Magic,Maths and Money on why-mathematics-has-not-been-effective-in-economics Thanks Mark

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• economics-for-a-moral-end

Vox wonk

• untapped-potential-humanitarian-economics
• agglomeration-benefits-versus-firm-selection
• shopping-costs-and-one-stop-shoppers-intensify-competition
• economic-causes-childlessness
• globalisation-and-political-structure-lessons-eu
• new-road-infrastructure-effects-firms
• role-foreign-slack-domestic-inflation-eurozone
• high-costs-being-poor-rich-land
• excess-saving-and-low-interest-rates-theory-and-evidence

Polling Update

Kevin Bonham again comments on the latest lot of polls.

He also examines the polls visavis Tony V Malcolm.

I again say it appears the electorate has made up its mind. Turnbull at present is very much like Gillard was. you can pass all the legislation you like and even though most of it is good policy the electorate does not give a stuff!

The Murray-Darling Basin

Four Corners had an outstanding episode on the Murray-Darling basin.

In essence we saw NSW Departments giving irrigators information they gave no-one else and without a NSW Government badge. Plan B was to simply walk away from the Murray-Darling deal.
We actually saw some cotton farmers taking water illegally. The water was far too low for them to take water but they were caught out doing so.

The whole matter needs a judicial inquiry. At present we are spending billions of dollars for no benefit what so ever.
Get the evidence and charge the villains as soon as possible. The Murray-Darling basin is vital both to Australia over all and to the region.

It needs to be regulated well and the rivers brought back to health.

See also Ross Thompson

Dunkirk

The whole Family watched this movie tonight. I agree with Steve from Brisbane.

This is a fantastic movie.The direction is something else. The filming of the air fights is simply magnificent.

Do yourself a favour just go and see it. You will enjoy it.

Has to be the BEST movie of the year by a country mile

Trump and Russia

Something stinks about this. First of all everyone involved call such stories lies.
Now it seems all those involved are saying they occurred, many more times than we first realised. There are lots of e-mails involved. how forgetful they were about them.
Three key Trump officials met with Russian operatives after being told they were official Russian 'players'!

It seems their key defence is either sheer stupidity or ignorance.  Even a key Trump apologist The New York Post is saying Junior's defence is that  he is stupid!
 Imagine if they key officials of Clintons campaign met with Russian operatives!

See:

• Zac Beauchamp
• Julia Ioffe

Just remember Kushner's defence is a lot more sophisticated than Juniors!

Will anything occur? I doubt it. We must and should wait for Muller's report.

However Trumpists are not a rational bunch. Here is an example. Lincoln would say an idiot talking about idiocy to idiots.

Around the Traps 21/7/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on worsening-school-performance-is-everyones-business
• Kevin Bonham on scott-ludlam-mess-scores-four-bob-days-out-of-five
• Chris Doucouliagos and Cong Pham on counter-terrorism-measures-permanently-reduce-international-trade-new-study
• Gary Mortimer on getting-rid-of-plastic-bags-a-windfall-for-supermarkets-but-it-wont-do-much-for-the-environment
• Keiran Hardy on caution-needed-as-the-government-expands-the-militarys-role-in-counter-terrorism
• Geoff Kitney on politics-and-policy-meet-new-home-affairs-department
• John Quiggin on sense-and-senselessness-in-transport-policy 
• John Blaxland on separating-out-important-intelligence-reforms-home-affairs , the-new-department-of-home-affairs-is-unnecessary-and-seems-to-be-more-about-politics-than-reform
• Antony Green on are-pensioners-disqualified-from-running-for-the-australian-parliament, dealing-with-the-issue-of-incorrect-ballot-paper-issue-at-federal-elections
• Lesley Hughes on in-the-absence-of-national-leadership-cities-are-driving-climate-policy
• The Kouk on the-downside-of-the-aussie-dollar-going-up-again
• Greg Jericho on dont-panic-the-rbas-35-rate-goal-doesnt-mean-your-mortgage-is-about-to-rise
• Adele Garnier on australias-new-home-office-is-a-worry-for-immigration-policy
• Nick Gruen on garbage-in-garbage-out-and-civil-service-effectiveness
• Daniela Spanjaard and Francine Garlin on how-nudge-theory-can-help-shops-avoid-a-backlash-over-plastic-bag-bans
• Trevor Thornton on in-banning-plastic-bags-we-need-to-make-sure-were-not-creating-new-problems
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-rbas-still-longing-for-goldilocks-growth
• Ric Smith on home-affairs-ministry-details-follow
• David Irvine on australian-intelligence-reforms-ain-t-broke-can-still-be-improved
• Croaking Cassandra on tightening-conditions-impede-inflation-getting-back-to-target
• Michael Barry and James Skinner on as-the-australian-cricketers-industrial-dispute-drags-on-heres-what-weve-learnt
• Ben White and Lindy Willmott on victoria-may-soon-have-assisted-dying-laws-for-terminally-ill-patients

Northern America

• Harry Enten on six-months-in-trump-is-historically-unpopular
• Adam Ozimek on There-Is-No-US-Wage-Growth-Mystery Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on the-healthcare-debacle-the-roles-of-ignorance-and-evil
• Daniel Woker on trump-warsaw-hamburg-and-paris
• Tim Duy on this-expansion-will-end-in-a-fizzle-not-a-bang Thanks Mark
• Calculated Risk on housing-and-policy , comments-on-june-housing-starts
• Ezra Klein on obamacare-repeal-working-mcconnell , trump-health-care-complicated-deal
• Mike Kimel on neoliberalism-chait-austerity-democratic-party-sanders-clinton
• David Graham on its-still-never-trumps-fault
• Nick Bunker on is-declining-competition-causing-slow-u-s-business-investment-growth Thanks Brad
• Jonathan Chait on trumpcare-collapsed-because-republicans-cannot-govern Thanks Brad
• Barkley Rosser on could-us-default-due-to-complexity-catastrophe
• Noah Smith on redlining-never-went-away
• Perry Bacon on which-anonymous-sources-are-worth-paying-attention-to
• Austin Sarat on can-trump-use-the-presidential-pardon-to-thwart-the-russia-investigations
• Menzie Chinn on transitory-revealed-preferences, so-you-want-to-fix-the-trade-deficit
• Australian Parliamentary Library on The_impeachment_process
• Catherine Rampell on this-ridiculous-republican-propaganda-is-exactly-why-we-need-the-cbo Thanks Mark
• Annie Lowrey on made-in-america Thanks Mark
• Mathew Yglesias on trump-nyt-interview-ignorance
• German Lopez on cbo-bcra-deductibles-obamacare
• Sarah Kliff on trump-health-costs
• Nate Silver on if-clinton-had-won
• Anna Maria Barry-Jester on the-republicans-have-three-health-care-bills-and-no-clear-paths-forward 

Europe

• Mainly Macro on the-obrs-risk-assessment-lacks-context , should-labour-triangulate-over-brexit
• long and variable on the-office-for-budget-responsibilitys-fiscal-risks-report
• Tim Harford on wishful-thinking-in-politics-is-a-recipe-for-foolishness
• stumbling and bumbling on my-brexit-dilemma , on-bbc-bias , the-economics-of-bbc-pay
• Bank Underground on how-will-households-react-to-the-real-income-squeeze Thanks Mark
• Lisa Louis on macron-puts-his-stamp-french-foreign-policy
• Fraser Macqueen on emmanuel-macron-is-already-showing-he-is-no-progressive

Asia

• Emanuel Sarfraz on pakistan-s-political-turmoil
• Gregory Fealey on jokowi-s-bungled-ban-hizbut-tahrir
• Meriden Varrall on what-china-thinks-about-west-and-liu-xiaobo
• Stephen Grenville on how-imf-evaluates-asian-crisis
• James Chinn on why-mahathir-centre-malaysia-s-opposition-power-play
• David Schulman on israels-irrational-rationality
• Brad Setser on have-economic-constraints-chinas-geostrategic-ambitions-diminished Thanks Mark
• Hugh White on let-be-clear-china-would-call-america-s-bluff-south-china-sea

Wonk

• Nick Rowe on monetary-policy-for-a-central-bank-with-no-balance-sheet
• The Conversable Economist on the-pricing-answer-to-traffic-congestion , global-value-chains-and-productivity, the-cycles-of-cities
• Barkley Rosser on larry-summers-reports-that-in-1972-paul-samuelson-complained-on-how-stupid-joanrobison-was, more-on-larry-summers-distorting-intellectual-history, those-of-you-who-are-old-enough-will-really-get-this
• stumbling and mumbling on facts-frictions-mainstream-economics
• Christine and David Romer on do-tax-cuts-starve-the-beast-the-effect-of-tax-changes-on-government-spending Thanks Brad
• Bank Underground on modelling-the-macroprudential-balancing-act Thanks Mark
• Justin Fox on yes-financial-crises-do-bring-hangovers Thanks Mark
• Arindrajit Dube on minimum-wage-and-job-loss-one-alarming-seattle-study-is-not-the-last-word Thanks Mark
• Marc Bellamare on contract farming as partial insurance
• Mainly Macro on the-politics-of-ignoring-knowledge

General

• Scepticlawyer on no-ibn-khaldun-is-not-the-father-of-economics
• Rosa Smith on jane-austen-and-the-redemption-of-gawkiness

Climate

• David Appell on comparing-temperatures-for-1998-and-2016-El Ninos
• Carbon Brief on seven-charts-show-why-the-iea-thinks-coal-investment-has-already-peaked Thanks Skeptical Science
• The Science of Doom on the-confirmation-bias-a-feature-not-a-bug
• John Quiggin on can-we-get-to-350-ppm-yes-we-can
• Variable Variability on how-to-talk-about-climate-doomsday-warnings
• Peter Sinclair on new-and-old-explainers-on-temp-adjustments
• Moyu on noaa-global-surface-temperature-down-just.01
• Real Climate on the-climate-has-always-changed-what-do-you-conclude
• Tamino on can-albertalberto-parkerboretti-handle-the-math

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• graphs-comparisons-case-study
• want-help-designing-crowdsourcing-data-analysis-project
• continue-not-trust-turk-another-reminder-importance-measurement
• design-future-studies-systemic-exercise-intolerance-disease-chronic-fatigue-syndrome
• will-grace-conjecture-wont-die-stories-blogroll
• concern-authors-dont-control-position-games-within-season
• nobel-prize-winning-economist-become-victim-bog-standard-selection-bias
• Kaiser Fung on crash-course-in-precision-and-uncertainty-in-advance-of-that-climate-debate-free-for-mr-pruitt , the-imprecision-of-data-subway-edition , this-one-takes-time-to-make-takes-even-more-time-to-read
• Rick Wiklin on a-quantile-definition-for-skewness

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• nothing within a p value!

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• do-ais-drive-autonomous-vehicles
• mobile-contradictions
• the-responsibility-of-the-public
• Tim Harford on three-great-books-about-getting-the-important-things-done
• Flowing data on gender-representation-in-comic-books

Vox Wonk

• incentives-effort-and-performance-higher-education
• what-next-us-europe-trade-policy
• slow-productivity-growth-may-not-be-new-normal-us
• credit-misallocation-during-european-financial-crisis
• japans-glass-ceiling-and-sticky-floor
• growth-and-volatility-and-after-global-crisis
• capital-accumulation-private-property-and-inequality-china-1978-2015
• hospital-competition-and-performance-france
• refugees-have-little-effect-native-worker-wages

Israel and Palestine

David Schullman in the New York Review of Books ( always one on the most enjoyable reads one can get because of the wide variety of topics) has a wonderful and somewhat sad article on the future of peace between Israel and Palestine.

New Department and Terrorism

The Prime Minister announced a new 'super' department to 'fight' terrorism.
He failed however to give any evidence of how it would improve performance. There is an old saying . If it ain't broke then don't fix it. In fact the security and intelligence agencies have been doing a pretty good job. ( it always helps that in Australia the people arrested for terrorist crimes have been pretty stupid and pretty easy to discover.

Whether it is the private or public sector one looks at two things. The strategy involved and the execution needed to put that strategy into operation better known as structuring. We almost always hear about companies restructuring. We rarely ever hear about companies changing their strategy!
Yesterday we neither heard why the execution was bad nor that the strategy was off. It is pretty easy to agree with John Blaxland. This is all about politics. Turnbull is frightened about losing his job.
More insights from Geoff Kitney and again from John Blaxland.
Adele Garnier sees other problems for Immigration policy. Ric Smith also comments.

What makes this worse is that the Minister is Peter Dutton. He was hopeless as Health Minister and is repeatedly caught out brazenly lying in his current portfolio. See Andrew Elder 

Directly related to this is a new study which shows the new counter-terrorism measures PERMANENTLY reduce international trade!

Clearly both measures here have not been thought out properly.

On media bias

Chris Dillow of Stumbling and Mumbling fame has a typical thoughtful piece on BBC bias.

Much of it could apply to Australia and the ABC.
Whenever anyone is interviewed on the ABC there is no difference on how the interview is conducted whereas on frequent commercial outlets there is a vast difference difference.  Pauline Hanson given feather duster treatment by some outlets. The very people who are so biased one way always accuse the ABC of bias without ever becoming specific. Think Andrew Bolt, former auctioneer Ray Hadley etc.

Cricketers dispute a great ad for joining a union

Greg Jericho has an article entitled australian-crickets-pay-dispute-is-a-wonderful-ad-for-joining-a-union.
He is right.We have had labour market deregulation from mainly the ALP. ( Howard actually re-regulated it to favour employers).

We now see the final fruits of this in wages.

Around the Traps 14/7/17

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on money-past-and-future , mbies-analysis-on-how-emissions-reductions-targets-interact-with-immigration
• Ross Gittins on how-treasury-lost-its-way-on-economic-reform , /where-to-next-with-great-gonski
• Julie Clarke on the-tabcorp-tatts-case-should-end-the-clash-between-the-accc-and-the-competition-tribunal
• Dennis Muller on network-tens-future-is-all-about-media-power-not-economics
• Greg Jericho on no-wonder-the-government-tries-to-hide-its-emissions-reports-they-stinks
• Andrew Elder on distressed-assets-part-1 , distressed-assets-part-2
• Shanthi Robertson on blaming-migrants-wont-solve-western-sydneys-growing-pains
• Antony Green on scott-ludlam-resigns-what-happens-to-his-senate-seat

Northern America

• Larry Summers on trumps-behavior-is-the-biggest-threat-to-us-national-security, western-civilization-and-presidential-hypocrisy
• Economic Principals on mending the gap Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-june-employment-report-recap 
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on three-legs-good-no-legs-bad , the-cruelty-and-fraudulence-of-mitch-mcconnells-health-bill
• Kruggers on when-was-the-golden-age-of-conservative-intellectuals
• The incidental economist on medicaid-is-good-for-children-and-makes-them-better-adults Thanks Brad
• Calculated  Risk on house-prices-to-national-average-wage-index , key-measures-show-inflation-mostly-below-2%-in-June
• Mathew Dal Santo on trump-warsaw-speech-heed-message-not-messenger
• Robert Frank on why-single-payer-health-care-saves-money
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-fed-gets-optimistic-about-inflation Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on young-men-give-up-work-for-video-games-be-skeptical
• Pro market on market-power-leads-corporate-political-influence Thanks Mark
• Ezra Klein on trump-russia-emails-watergate
• Menzie Chinn on the-budget-deficit-under-trump-excluding-unicorn-effects
• Douglass Campbell on in-idiocy-of-kevin-warsh-more-evidence-for-the-self-induced-paralysis-thesis Thanks Mark
• Macroblog on an-update-on-labor-force-participation Thanks Mark
• The conversable economist on the-ingredients-for-us-productivity-revival
• Douglas Campbell on the-us-labor-market-is-still-losing-ground-relative-to-trend Thanks Mark
• Catherine Rampell on trumponomics-the-philosophy-that-it-doesnt-suck-enough-to-be-poor Thanks Mark

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on on-matthew-effects , the-taylor-review-1990s-answers-to-2010s-problems, the-centrist-crisis , on-contradictory-risk-attitudes
• Mainly Macro on why-german-wages-need-to-rise

Asia

• Irfan Ahmad on modis-polarising-populism-makes-a-fiction-of-a-secular-democratic-india
• Mark Harrison on end-martial-law-important-anniversary-taiwan
• Shashank Joshi on malabar-17-exercise-china-subtext

Wonk

• Mark Thoma on what-economics-models-really-say
• stumbling and mumbling on the-crisis-of-positive-sum-capitalism
• Douglas Campbell on ben-bernanke-in-denial-re-when-growth-is-not-enough Thanks Mark
• Roger Farmer on conscience-of-a-liberal-bertrand-russell-edition Thanks Mark
• Mainly Macro on against-charisma, measuring-impact-of-austerity , why-recessions-followed-by-austerity-can-have-a-persistent-impact
• Carola Binder on measuring-uncertainty
• Coppolla comment on asymmetric-herding, crypto-tulips
• Roland Rajah on new-era-leadership-g19
• Adam Tooze on 365 days that shook the world  Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on formerly-true-theories-wonkish-and-self-indulgent
• The Conversable Economist on arms-length-international-trade, tally-sticks-and-fundamentals-of-money
• Brookings on global-value-chains-shed-new-light-on-trade , the-danger-of-dismissing-market-failures Thanks Mark
• Atif Mian et al on how-credit-supply-shocks-affect-the-economy Thanks Mark
• long and variable on crypto-currencies-and-the-vestigial-states-they-plunder , central-bank-policy-in-the-face-of-a-crypto-take-over
• Menzie Chinn on a-new-puzzle-la-fama
• Lord Keynes on what-is-case-against-marxism-in-nutshell
• Eric Lonergan on democracy-and-minority-rule
• Jacob Levy on sovereign-myth Thanks Brad
• Progrowth Liberal on comparing-companies-to-nations
• Stephen Grenville on safeguarding-competition-in-a-cyber-economy
• David Glasner on whats-wrong-with-the-price-specie-flow-mechanism-part-ii-friedman-and-schwartz-on-the-1879-resumption
• Noah Smith on so-many-critics-of-economics-miss-what-it-gets-right
• Brad De Long on how-to-think-like-an-economist-if-that-is-you-wish-to

General

• The Conversable economist on the-five-grandchildren-query
• Matthew Hopcraft on four-myths-about-water-fluoridation-and-why-theyre-wrong
• Understnding society on chinese-modernization-c-1930 Thanks Mark
• Lucyna Kedziora-Chudczer on early-images-of-the-closest-look-at-jupiters-great-red-spot 

Climate

• David Appell on more-about-rsss-large-changes-to-their-temperatures, larsen-c-almost-free, giant-iceberg-nearly-size-of-delaware-breaks-off-Anarctica
• hotwhopper on not-as-hot-june-troposphere
• moyhu on june-global-surface-temperature-down-01
• Amandine Dennis on the-electricity-sector-needs-to-cut-carbon-by-45-by-2030-to-keep-australia-on-track
• Real Climate on climate-sensitivity-estimates-and-corrections
• Peter Sinclair on larsen-c-one-of-the-biggest-bergs-ever-just-formed
• and Then Theres Physics on reconciling-climate-sensitivity-estimates-part-iii-or-iv
• Tamino on climate-trend-change-do-it-right
• Variable Variability on NOAA-NASA-Hadley-CRU-Global-Average-Surface-Temperature-Data-EPA-CO2-Endangerment-Finding-best-project
• John Quiggin on technology-to-the-rescue
• Noah Smith on rooftop-solar-is-no-match-for-crony-capitalism

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• night-hawk
• updated-ponyshoe-paper-juho-piironen-aki-vehtari
• arent-behavioral-economists-three-sociologists-give-take-mental-accounting
• can-read-two-versions-review-essay-systemic-exertion-intolerance-disease-chronic-fatigue-syndrome
• criticism-economists-journalists-jumping-conclusions-based-mortality-trends
• clinical-trials-broken-heres-why
• daryl-bem-arthur-conan-doyle
• 3-things-will-surprise-model-validation-calibration-state-space-models
• classical-statisticians-unitarians
• Dr Nic on mathematics-and-statistics-lessons-about-elections
• flowing data on look-to-the-data-collection
• Junkcharts on the-art-of-arranging-bars

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• the-bandwidth-for-kpss-test
• No Hesitations on on-identification-of-network-connectedness , july-12-nber-discussion-slides
• Marc Bellemare on dealing with imperfect instruments 111
• econometric sense on the-credibility-revolution-in-econometrics , instrumental-variables-and-late

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• are-you-ready-for-the-digital-future
• agreeing-about-gdp-disagreeing-about-the-beyond

Vox Wonk

• difficult-school-work-transition-high-school-dropouts
• trade-unions-employer-organisations-and-collective-bargaining-oecd-countries
• secular-rise-personality-traits
• local-dynamics-complex-warfare
• endogenous-growth-and-lack-recovery-global-crisis
• completing-emu
• us-treasury-s-missed-opportunity

Tamino is not amused

Tamino is back and he has a go at scientists who fail to do climate trend change correctly. He shows us how it should be done!

Measuring the impact of Austerity

Simon Wren-Lewis of Mainly Macro fame writes a clear exposition on  measuring-impact-of-austerity.
As Brad would say it is a must read.

going to Blayney and won't be back for a while.

Around the Traps 7/7/17

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Marion Terrill on stuck-in-traffic-busting-melbourne-versus-sydney-myths-and-identifying-the-worst-commutes
• Croaking Cassandra on donald-trump-lessons-from-nzs-economic-boom-of-1996-2001, switzerland-as-our-example-again, squeezing-out-business-investment , reserve-bank-dtis-and-the-cost-of-crises , not-much-investment-in-new-zealand, options-for-a-new-governor
• Peter Hurley on why-exploitation-and-corruption-continue-to-dog-australias-vet-sector
• Terry Burke on community-sector-offers-a-solid-platform-for-fair-social-housing
• Greg Austin on explaining-australia-sharp-turn-information-warfare
• The Piping Shrike on no-resurrection-an-update
• James  Forrest on suburbs-swamped-by-asians-and-muslims-the-data-show-a-different-story
• Kevin Bonham on how-often-are-federal-newspolls-released
• Santosh Jatrana on migrants-are-healthier-than-the-average-australian-so-they-cant-be-a-burden-on-the-health-system
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-rba-was-right-to-keep-rates-on-hold
• Nathan Pittmen et al on impending-traffic-chaos-beware-the-problematic-west-gate-tunnel-forecasts
• Press Gallery Reform on that-old-junkyard-dog
• Lorraine Finlay on explainer-is-a-high-court-challenge-about-to-bring-down-the-turnbull-government
• James Watson and Marine Maron on the-great-barrier-reef-isnt-listed-as-in-danger-but-its-still-in-big-trouble

Northern America

• run 17441 on california-single-payer-plan
• James Hamilton on are-we-in-a-new-inflation-regime
• The conversable economist on from-what-direction-is-next-recession-coming , melting-pot-salad-bowl-chocolate-fondue
• Pro-Growth Liberal on dean-baker-v-paul-krugman-on-trumps-tariffs
• Kruggers on oh what a lovely trade war Thanks Brad
• Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendoca on increase-earned-income-credit-and-minimum-wage Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on universities-in-the-age-of-trump
• Brett Logiorato on gop-healthcare-bill-polls-bad-changes Thanks Brad
• David Cashman et al on Fiscal policy before, during and following the Great Recession Thanks Brad
• The Regulatory Review on voter-request-illegal-controversial Thanks Mark
• Narayana Kocherlakota on someday-congress-won-t-raise-the-debt-ceiling Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-employment-report-coming-up 
• James Fallows on trump-poland-speech
• David Graham on kobach-to-where-you-came-from
• Calculated Risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-presidents
• Promarket on can-investigative-journalism-overcome-rational-ignorance-voters

Europe

• long and variable on the-flaw-in-the-argument-central-banks-have-used-to-justify-the-rates-first-qe-later-exit-plan , accounts-at-the-central-bank-technical-policy-choice-or-a-right
• Mainly Macro on austerity-confusion-or-why-tories-are-trapped-by-austerity
• stumbling and mumbling on the-tories-structural-problem , money-tree-economics , experience-matters
• Matt Fitzpatrick on how-angela-merkel-has-become-and-remains-one-of-the-worlds-most-successful-political-leaders

Asia

• Frances Kitt on how-china-media-framed-hong-kong-handover-anniversary
• Eric Trager on the-muslim-brotherhood-is-at-the-heart-of-the-qatar-crisis
• James Goldrick on china-new-cruiser-part-strategic-challenge-america
• Vivienne Chow on china-and-hong-kong-one-country-above-all
• Roger Shanahan on stalemate-qatar-dispute
• David Kelly on winding-back-the-china-solution 
• Victor Abramovisz on north-korea-strangely-disorganised-missile-program
• Raj Verma on pakistan-and-jaish-e-mohammad-unholy-alliance
• Patrick Jory on enter-dragon-thailand-gets-closer-china
• Pradeep Taneja on china-india-stand-himalayas

Wonk

• Stephen Grenville on removing-punch-bowl-and-other-central-bank-quandaries
• Hussain Nadir on de-radicalisation-helpline-new-approach-old-results
• Coppolla comment on the worst political storm in years
• Dietrich Vollrath on the return of peasant mentality
• Promarket on information-is-a-public-good Thanks Mark
• Liberty Street on the-role-of-central-bank-lending-facilities-in-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
• Mainly Macro on was-neoliberal-overreach-inevitable
• Nick Rowe on monopolymonopsony-power-and-hungriness-for-salespurchases, never-mind-the-flatness-feel-the-length-of-the-observed-phillips-curve
• Money and Banking on regulating-the-credit-rating-agencies-less-would-be-more Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on central-bank-balance-sheets-past-present-and-future Thanks Mark
• Economic Principals on literature of disillusionment Thanks Mark
• Macro Musings onan-alternative-to-raising-inflation-target
• John Quiggin on against-epistocracy
• Conversable economist on george-orwell-patriotism-vs-nationalism  , carlton-hayes-nationalism-as-religion, why-not-taxation-and-representation, notes-on-eternal-vigilance-is-price-of-liberty
• FRBSF on global-growth-slump-causes-consequences Thanks Mark
• David Glasner on whats-wrong-with-the-price-specie-flow-mechanism-part-i 

General

• Noahopinion on why-did-europe-lose-crusades
• David Appell on no-simple-formula-for-circumference-of-ellipse
• Michele Brown on doing-away-with-the-annual-performance-review-more-feedback-isnt-necessarily-better
• Doverbeach on rabbi-sacks-on-the-vulnerability-of-children-post-sexual-revolution
• Understanding Society on morphogenesis-and-social-norms Thanks Mark 

Climate

• Hotwhopper on a-frosty-look-at-david-archibalds-latest-speculation-about-global-cooling
• The science of doom on the-confirmation-bias-a-feature-not-a-bug
• Variable Variability on trump-administration-new-scientific-method-red-team
• moyhu on june-ncepncar-down-016C , new-rss-tlt-v4-comparisons
• Critical Angle on may-2017-global-temperature-update-belated
• and Then Theres Physics on david-whitehouse-is-very-confused , the-only-way-not-to-lose-is-to-play, temperature-targets
• Simon Mann and Timothy Stern on satellites-reveal-melting-of-rocks-under-volcanic-zone-deep-in-earths-mantle
• Andrew Glikson on why-the-climate-is-more-sensitive-to-carbon-dioxide-than-weather-records-suggest
• Chen Zao et al on  dont-worry-about-the-huge-antarctic-iceberg-worry-about-the-glaciers-behind-it
• David Appell on new-atmospheric-temperatures-from-rss-theyre-higher
• Greg Laden on these-heat-waves-are-global-warming-connected
• Peter Sinclair on baseload-when-wind-is-the-firmest-energy-source
• Arctic sea ice on piomas-july-2017
• Suzi Kerr on a-new-approach-to-emissions-trading-in-a-post-paris-climate
• Rosemary Sainty on the-g20s-new-guidelines-will-help-investors-tackle-climate-change

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• furthermore-forms-research-reached-degree-complexity-experimental-methodology-replicative-repetition-can-difficult
• humans-can-discriminate-more-than-1-trillion-olfactory-stimuli-not
• maternal-death-rate-problems-north-carolina
• what-is-a-pull-request
• whoops-sorry-columbia-university-history-prof-relives-1968
• statisticians-economists-agree-learn-data-generating-revising-models-hypotheses-data-analyzed-response-surprising-findings
• bigshot-psychologist-unhappy-famous-finding-doesnt-replicate-wont-consider-might-wrong-instead-scrambles-furiously-preserve-theories
• biostat Prof on time to update the p value dichotomy to the tricotomy
• Kaiser Fung on why-are-there-so-many-open-positions-in-analytics , an-email-from-linkedin, wheel-of-fortune-without-prizes-the-negative-report-about-negativity

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• canada-day-reading-list
• No Hesitations on bayes-jeffreys-mcmc-statistics-and-econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• gloom-and-doom
• performing-economic-miracles
• responsibility
• my-life-in-books
• The conversable economist on economic-theory-limitations-and-biases

Vox Wonk

• exchange-rates-and-swiss-economy
• measuring-and-mis-measuring-chinese-growth
• deterrence-effect-whistleblowing
• economics-populist-backlash
• occupational-licensing-japanese-labour-market
• joint-evolution-institutions-and-culture
• european-banking-union-three
• growing-shrinking-and-long-run-economic-performance
• transition-clean-technology
• who-fears-losing-their-job-ai-and-robots-japanese-survey-data
• awe-trumps-rules-update-year-s-g20-protectionism
• foreign-banks-and-international-transmission-monetary-policy
• risk-return-and-skill-portfolios-wealthy
• spanning-hypothesis-and-risk-premia-long-term-bonds
• capital-inflows-good-bad-and-bubbly
• difficult-school-work-transition-high-school-dropouts
• sibling-spillovers

The Cricket Dispute

Will we have an Ashes contest?
What is going on between the Australian Cricket board and the Australian Cricketers Association?

Here is Geoff Lemon on the dispute. It is possibly the best article by a journalist I have read.
Also on the ever excellent ABC we have the normally so so Tracey Holmes doing a great job  on the whys and wherefores.
Also Braham Dabscheck who also pops up on the Tracey Holmes audio

I do think given the change in personnel on the ACB since the last agreement and the fact previous agreements have been good for both sides means we are looking at something else. In this case it is ideology and the subject union busting. A very middle class union at that.

Going away and will be back on Friday