The Day/Night Test at Adelaide

We experienced something different in test cricket at Adelaide. It proved immensely successful.
HOWEVER the reason it did was because the contest between bat and ball was even and thus we saw low scores because the batsmen are in fact of low quality.

The only problem was the trest was decided on a bad umpiring decision. If you are going to use DRS then use it.

The man was clearly out and the match turned on the decision. Was the third umpire the only person at the ground or watching on TV who thought Lyons was not out?

This was a great shame and I hope the Umpires learn from this bad mistake.

Nanness has been a revelation on ABC radio as a commentator.

Around the Traps 27/11/15

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

• Heln Dickinson on is-australia-ready-to-give-people-with-disability-real-choice-and-control-over-services
• Sandra Van Der Laan on shane-warne-foundation-a-wake-up-call-for-charities-regulator
• Sam Roggeveen on How-Turnbull-can-beat-the-Right-on-terrorism
• David Wells on The-island-fortress-How-Australias-geography-influences-the-likelihood-of-Paris-like-attacks
• Greg Jericho on there-is-such-a-thing-as-wrong-kind-of-growth-just-look-at-western-australia , cut-company-tax-rate-to-grow-revenue-thats-magical-thinking
• Peter Martin on theyre-not-going-to-push-up-gst-super
• Ross Gittins on lower-tax-dream-feeds-budget-deficit , oldies-looked-after-while-young-dont-notice
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-turnbull-surge-alone-wont-explain-Shorten's-problems
• The Kouk on what-is-missing-from-our-economic-commentary , punitive-approach-to-restraining-welfare-costs-lazy-and-short-sighted
• Dennis Dragovic on five-reasons-to-keep-boots-off-the-ground-in-the-fight-against-islamic-state-for-now
• Croaking Cassandra on if-they-build-it-what-if-no-one-comes

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on a-few-random-comments-on-october-existing-home-sales , comments-on-october-new-home-sales
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-mission-accomplished
• Kruggers on shorts-subject
• Timothy Taylor on the-size-of-automatic-stabilizers-in-us
• Robert Waldmann on what-caused-the-great-recession Thanks Mark
• Tony Yates on tayloring-a-criticism-of-fed-policy
• Menzie Chinn on links-housing-bubbles-trilemma-policy-timing-uncertainty
• Joseph Joyce on dilemmas-trilemmas-and-difficult-choices

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on is-this-really-social-democracy-versus, is-this-right-way-to-shrink-state-nhs-edition
• Copolla comment on eurodespair
• Tim Harford on the-pillars-of-tax-wisdom
• Chris Dillow on two-realities-of-labour-politics

Asia

• Noah Smith on japanese-promises 
• Jessica Montell on celebrating-small-wins-in-israel-palestine-human-rights
• Andrea Ackerman on international-community-neglects-to-act-on-yazidi-genocide
• Sidney Jones on Indonesia-No-room-for-complacency-as-ISIS-builds-Jakarta-network
• Mark Spiegel on global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown Thanks Mark
• Ian Johnson on xi-china-illusion-of-change
• Dawn Chatty on aid-crisis-for-syrian-refugees

Wonk

• Brad De Long on what-is-the-free-market-solution-to-a-liquidity-trap-higher-inflation
• Growth Economics on the-changing-composition-of-productivity-growth Thanks Mark
• Barkely Rosser on what-has-not-been-said-about-the-late-Herbert-Scarf
• Robert Waldmann on thoughts-on-summers-on-the-productivity-slowdown
• Edward Lambert on no-surprise-productivity-slowdown
• David Leonhardt on chicagonomics-and-economics-rules Thanks Brad
• David Glasner on thompsons-reformulation-of-macroeconomic-theory-part-v-a-neoclassical-black-hole
• James Hamilton on trends-in-oil-production
• Kevin O'Rourke on the-political-aftermath-of-financial-crises
• Chris Dillow on a-new-economics
• Noah Smith on want-to-boost-productivity-raise-minimum-wages, leaving-the-justice-out-of-wealth-redistribution
• Nick Rowe on some-very-basic-non-walrasian-economics
• Simon Wren-Lewis on political-economy-assignments
• David Andolfatto on lift-off-in-world-of-excess-reserves
• Antonio Fatas on counting-backwards-to-next-recession
• Timothy Taylor on will-convergence-occur

General

• Petre Roman on hard-dilemma-counterterrorism-andor-shallow-freedom 
• Rivka Witenberg on a-refugee-like-me-why-the-golden-rule-matters-in-an-era-of-mass-migration
• Mah-Rukh Ali on isis-threat-terror-propaganda-and-ideology
• Maged Mandour on why-west-cannot-defeat-isis
• Geoff Brown on Turkey-shootdown-Russian-air-power-has-chinks-but-campaign-has-been-decisive
• Sarah Lain on Turkeys-downing-of-Russian-plane-Russia-was-warned-but-Turkey-may-have-over-reacted
• Lord Keynes on a-bibliography-of-critiques-of-post-modernism
• Croaking Cassandra on these-remote-islands-are-different
• Scepticlawyer on black-boxes-the-rectification-of-names-and-the-revival-of-slavery

Climate

• Ron Honeycutt on tracking the 2C limit 
• climate code red on how-2015s-record-breaking-el-nino-emerged-on-a-warming-planet
• David Appell on el-nino-surpasses-1997-98
• Stoat on rates-of-ancient-climate-change-may-be-underestimated
• and Then Theres Physics on one-graph-to-rule-them-all , there-is-no-tribe
• Rabett Run on prebutting-lame-denier-excuses-for-2015
• John Quiggin on clean-coal-is-not-going-to-happen
• Greg Laden on global-warming-did-not-pause
• Real Climate on hiatus-or-bye-atus

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• benford-lays-down-the-law
• a-statistical-approach-to-quadrature
• if a study is worth a mention it is worth a link
• top 9 questions to ask
• what-years-of-the-economy-influence-the-next-presidential-election
• beyond-the-median-split-splitting-a-predictor-into-3-parts
• gary-mcclelland-agrees-with-me-that-dichotomizing-continuous-variable-is-a-bad-idea-he-also-thinks-my-suggestion-of-dividing-a-variable-into-3-parts-is-also-a-mistake
• ipredict-to-close-after-govt-refuses-anti-money-laundering-law-exemption
• Kaiser Fung on statbusters-please-back-up-an-extreme-claim-with-numbers

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• Jessie Romero and  Aaron Steelman on economists learn to deal with big data Thanks Mark
• No Hesitations on on-bayesian-dsge-modeling-with-hard-and-soft-restrictions

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-hamburgerized-economy , people-and-economists , ronald-coase-on-the-sharing-economy
• Timothy Taylor on an-economist-chews-over-thanksgiving

Vox wonk

• challenge-trade-adjustment-greece
• new-historical-database-economic-freedom-oecd-countries
• anti-poor-effects-large-exchange-rate-devaluations
• immigration-residential-concentration-and-employment
• uk-productivity-puzzle-trojan-horse
• central-bankers-policymakers-last-resort
• iceland-s-seven-meagre-years
• gender-and-monetary-policymaking
• evidence-low-real-rates-will-persist
• macro-effects-capital-inflows-capital-type-matters

Poll Update

The  inimitable Kevin Bonham gives us his latest missive on current polling.

My thoughts are id people had a choice between Abbott or Shorten they would pick Shorten.

Now it is Turnbull and adults are back in charge of the Government they are well contented and are treating the Government like a typical FIRST TERM Government. In other words they should win comfortably.
The only caveat to this is if Turnbull does a Rudd and does not use any of his popularity to announce policy reform.

The announcement of the Harper Report is not good.

Viewing the Tax System

The ALP have got themselves into a terrible state.

They won't increase the GST. No siree. It is an unfair tax. It falls mainly on the poor.

A shame they couldn't gain evidence the offsets put in place when it first came in failed.
Of course the ALP's own ETS cam in with offsets for the poor which again succeeded.

Why not sign up to a GET with full compensation?

It is for political reasons. They thin it is a good target politically.

What really irritates me is everyone who says they cannot support the GST because it is not a progressive tax.

The GST is the best indirect tax you can have. End of story.

You do not look at EVERY tax and than accept or discard it because it is progressive or not.

The key to examining progressivity ( which is a good thing because they that have the capacity should pay most of the tax) is the overall tax system.

Overall our system is progressive.

Boots on the ground

There have been a lot of noise lately about putting boots on the ground to defeat ISIS/ISIL.

Talk to a military man and they think boots on the ground is the type of forces which we saw in the illegal invasion of Iraq. I doubt if any nation is going to agree to that.

However before even thinking about putting any boots anywhere you must have some sort of political solution in mind.

This is why the invasion of Iraq was so disastrous. It begat ISIS.

Unless you know exactly how this will occur after ISIS/ISIL militarily defeated then it would be in vain just like the invasion of Iraq proved to be.

Thus far the only people who are beating the 'boots on the ground' drum do not have a clue what may occur after it is over.  It is the same people who gleefully supported the invasion of Iraq.

George Santayana was right.

Update:
 Sam Roggeveen

Around the Traps 20/11/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.
Umpiring on both Saturday and Sunday but will update.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Nikki McCaffrey on to-die-at-home-or-in-hospital-aussies-want-one-but-we-fund-the-other
• Ray Markey on myths-about-penalty-rates-and-those-who-rely-on-them
• Mark Briskey on what-do-the-paris-attacks-mean-for-australias-syrian-refugee-intake
• Ken Parish on terrorism-bikies-and-secret-evidence
• Croaking Cassandra on weak-expectations-and-accountability , converging-on-the-us-trends-in-government-spending
• Mark the Ballot on updated-poll-aggregation
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-terror-bounce-kicking-Labor-when-they-are-down
• Andrew Elder on a-royal-commission-into-mandatory-detention-of-asylum-seekers , commercial-media-pauline-hanson-and-radical-islam, who-do-we-burn
• Lelie Goldman on ultimate-responsibility-for-samarco-dam-disaster-will-haunt-bhp
• Greg Jericho on record-low-wage-growth-is-a-blow-to-the-governments-case-for-tax-reform
• Clare Newton on how-can-we-best-design-housing-for-australias-ageing-population
• Francesco Paolucci and Maeul Garcia-Goni on want-real-health-reform-integrate-public-and-private-health-into-one-mandatory-insurance-system
• Ben Phillips and Cukkoo Joseph on factcheck-are-average-earners-the-main-beneficiaries-of-negative-gearing
• Peter Martin on immigration-economic-case-for-open-borders

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on fed-economic-letter-whats-different-in-housing , key-measures-show-inflation-somewhat-higher-in-october
• John Fernald on the pre great recession slowdown in productivity growth Thanks Brad
• Jason Furman on the_next_steps_health_care_reform Thanks Brad
• Isabel Sawhill on where-are-the-workers Thanks Mark
• Edward Lambert on hi-slack-lo-slack
• Carola Binder on feds-new-community-advisory-council-to-meet-on-friday
• David Beckworth on how-to-trigger-fed-panic-attack-at-the-Fed
• Adam Posen on A more inflexible Fed would cause more crises Thanks Mark
• St Louis Fed on effects-stimulus-spending-surrounding-areas Thanks Mark
• David Beckworth on going-all-natural-at-fed

Europe

• Vijay Prasad on we-are-in-pitiless-times
• Patrice de Beer on can-europe-make-it/patrice-de-beer/paris-attacks
• Paul Rodgers on paris-atrocity-and-after
• Lydia Khalil on Paris-will-upend-the-threat-of-terrorism-in-the-West
• Croaking Cassandra on thinking-about-the-euro-and-common-currencies
• Coppolla Comment on eurodesperation
• Simon Wren-Lewis on austerity-treasuryand-spending-under-Labour
• Lord Keynes on two-problems-about-europes-migrant
• Tony Yates on central-banks-and-their-interest-rate-plans

Asia

• Vanessa Newby on Lebanon-bombing-strikes-a-street-of-joy
• Anthony Ware on once-suu-kyi-takes-power-her-party-will-need-to-re-engage-the-people-to-manage-sky-high-hopes
• Noah Smith on japan-is-locked-in-a-struggle-to-spark-inflation
• Sam Roggeveen on A-5-minute-primer-on-the-Syrian-civil-war , The-end-of-Abenomics-Think-again

Wonk

• twenty cent paradigms on hysteresis-and-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
• Edward Lambert on catching up with the natural real rate
• Steve Roth on why-tyler-cowen-doesnt-understand-the-economy-its-the-debt-stupid
• Croaking Cassandra on stan-fischer-on-central-bank-independence
• Noah Smith on gelman-vs-case-deaton-academics-vs-blogs , unlearning-economics
• David Andolfatto on bitcoin-and-central-banking
• Tim Harford on when-wishful-thinking-becomes-wasteful
• Steve Pearlstein on the-value-and-limits-of-economic-models Thanks Brad
• Cechetti and Schoenholtz on a-primer-on-central-bank-independence Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on why-more-humanitarian-aid-should-be-in-cash, remembering-herbert-scarf-1930-2015
• Chris Dillow on migration-as-poverty-reduction
• Lord Keynes on how-to-reform-modern-left
• Chris Dillow on keynes-error, in-defence-of-higher-pensions
• John Quiggin on private-infrastructure-finance-and-secular-stagnation
• Simon Wren-Lewis on when-central-bankers-should-keep-quiet
• Kruggers on the-expansionary-austerity-zombie
• Fresh economic thinking on more-unpopular-economic-opinions Thanks Mark

General

• Bruce Webb on isis-rogue-state-or-organized-crime-gangmafia
• Nafez Ahmed on isis-wants-destroy-greyzone-how-we-defend
• Kyle Orton on islamic-state-as-saddam-regime-s-afterlife-fedayeen-saddam
• Tim Harford on nothing-to-fear-but-fear-itself
• Allen Cheng on explainer-what-is-the-risk-of-transmitting-hiv
• Carwyn Jones on legend-hero-gentleman-jonah-lomu-changed-the-face-of-rugby
• Albert Palazzo on Efficiency-and-effectiveness-in-war-are-not-the-same-thing
• Ross Gittins on terrorism-we-must-learn-to-think-like-economists
• Daniel Baldino on how-to-lose-the-war-on-terror-panic-and-feed-islamic-states-narrative
• Rene Wildangel on we-dont-need-another-war-on-terror-we-need-policy-change
• Timothy Taylor on refugees-displaced-resettled-some-global-snapshots

Climate

• Greg Laden on global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat , nasa-reports-astonishing-uptick-in-surface-temperature, record-highs-beating-record-lows-21-with-global-warming
• Jeff Masters on el-nio-of-2015-hits-alltime-record-strength-for-a-1week-period
• and Then Theres Physics on going-for-the-record , short-memory, richard-tols-climate-sensitivity-estimate , feedbacks-climate-sensitivity-and-the-limits-of-linear-models
• Tamino on october-a-scorcher
• David Appel on more-big-gains-in-ocean-heat-content
• Robert Stavins on paris-can-be-a-key-step  Thanks Mark
• No Hesitations on climatology-and-predictive-modeling
• Frank Jotzo and Salim Mazouz on farewell-to-brown-coal-without-tears-how-to-shut-high-emitting-power-stations
• Jane Younger on shrinking-antarctic-glaciers-could-make-adelie-penguins-unlikely-winners-of-climate-change
• Dana1981 0n 2015-shatters-temp-record-gw-speeds-up
• Science of Doom on renewables-xv-offshore-wind-costs
• Jonathan Bamber on what is really going on in Antartica

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• Prison sentences
• why-is-it-so-hard-for-them-to-acknowledge-a-correction
• asking-the-question-is-the-most-important-step
• is-84-less-than-3-11-of-respondents-say-yes
• just-filling-in-the-bubbles
• pareto-smoothed-importance-sampling-and-infinite-variance-2nd-ed
• first-second-and-third-order-bias-corrections-also-my-ugly-r-code-for-the-mortality-rate-graphs
• i-like-the-monkey-cage
• tip-o-the-iceberg-to-ya

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• november-reading

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• american-exceptionalism-inequality-version , economics-meet-reality , understanding-innovation-and-growth
• John Abraham on romm-book-review
• Angela Kucia on fact-or-fiction-can-we-die-from-a-broken-heart

Vox wonk

• firms-organisational-choices-along-value-chains
• estimating-equilibrium-real-interest-rate
• local-economy-impact-fracking
• mass-layoffs-and-local-labour-market-exit
• imf-s-analysis-irish-bailout
• how-sme-funding-risk-allocated
• india-s-energy-efficiency
• why-turkish-growth-ended
• distance-frontier-productivity-distribution-and-travelling-waves
• imf-programmes-greece-vs-iceland
• new-historical-database-world-human-development
• blueprint-overcoming-systemic-risk
• ez-crisis-consensus-narrative
• political-aftermath-financial-crises-going-extremes

Wage Pressures???

The Wage Price Index was released yesterday.
Let me hand it over to the excellent CBA economics team.

"Annual wages growth, as measured by the WPI, is travelling at its slowest pace since the series began in 1998.  It’s no surprise that wages growth has slowed given the increase in spare capacity in the labour market (best captured by the increase in the unemployment rate).  But the decline has been sharper than previous episodes largely because we now have a more flexible labour market in Australia that is more responsive to changes in labour demand.  The large decline in the terms of trade from lower commodity prices has also weighed on wages growth.  If wages had not been so responsive to cooling demand for labour it’s more likely than not that the unemployment rate would have risen more sharply than what we’ve observed.  On that basis there are two positives from the sharp slowdown in wages growth – more people employed and an improvement in international competitiveness. 

Soft wages growth has played its role in generating benign CPI inflation.  In our view, weak wages growth looks set to persist over the next year given the degree of spare capacity in the labour market.  This will be further exacerbated by any additional commodity price weakness.  The RBA holds this view also and it underpins their soft easing bias.  As the central bank duly noted in the November Minutes, “the inflation outlook may afford some scope for further easing of monetary policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.”  We don’t expect further rate cuts given there is a growing body of evidence that indicates the necessary rebalancing in the economy is occurring under the umbrella of low interest rates and a lower AUD.  However, it’s clear that tepid price pressures will continue to keep the door ajar for further policy easing and as such the RBA is likely to keep its soft easing bias intact at the December Board meeting."

So there we have it. A flexible labour market is doing its job.

Hang on what about those clowns who said the ALP re-regulated the labour market. The Hendersons. Sloans, Kates and whatever.

Absolute silence. No sign of any of them saying sheepishly we wuz wrong.

Absolute Hypocrites

Here's Greg Jericho

 courtesy of Alan Kohler

Test Cricket

Cricket Australia  is doing a bad job is marketing test cricket which of course is the only form of cricket.

The first test was a shambles because the Kiwis were not given a decent preparation.Few peole would have enjoyed the test.

The second test was also a shambles because the pitch was a shocker. No test batsman should get a double century on a test wicket. to have two in a match means there is no contest between bat and ball.

A great test match will have scores of around 250 in all four innings with one century in the match which is a match winning score.

Fast bowlers should dominate the first day and spinners the last.

Penalty Rates again

Ray Markey has a small articles on the myths of penalty rates. Worth a read !

Paris

The attacks in Paris occurred because some people have so much hate one cannot really understand it. They also have an ideology that devalues human beings so much that killing someone  has no effect on their conscience.

A war on ideology takes a lot of time. Decades if not longer. You cannot win it with weapons although you do need them.

My wife immigrated from a country that is predominantly islamic. She tells me some of the most fanatical are nominal muslims. They kill ,rape etc people for any amount of reasons. however these attacks occur only in these countries.

I cannot say I am any expert but it seems to me if you give anyone a fair go at making money and some ability to secure a financial future for their children then they ain't going to go around killing people.

Around the Traps 13/11/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• James Morley on central-banks-can-deliver-on-a-divine-coincidence-but-glenn-stevens-is-a-not-a-miracle-worker
• Croaking Cassandra on temporary-safeguards-crises-and-tpp , the-social-democrats-from-the-imf , the-rb-financial-stability-report , some-fsr-omissions
• Ross Gittins on csiro-fills-treasurys-gap-on-environmental-modelling, tax-reformers-forget-budget-repair ,we-can-grow-gdp-if-we-stop-growing-natural-resource-use
• Ian McCauley on why-bother-trying-to-make-private-health-insurers-do-what-medicare-does
• Stephen Duckett on aged-and-confused-why-the-private-health-insurance-industry-is-ripe-for-reform
• Ben Wellings on only-the-conscription-referendums-made-australias-great-war-experience-different
• Evan Smith on rchive-records-shed-new-light-on-uk-role-in-whitlams-dismissal
• Croaking Cassandra on flexicurity-the-way-ahead-for-new-zealand
• Mark the Ballot on polling-update
• Max Chalmers on the-coalition-and-labor-are-both-running-against-tony-abbott-malcolm-turnbull-is-winning
• Mathew Rimmer on the-trans-pacific-partnership-poses-a-grave-threat-to-sustainable-development
• John Eldridge on three-superannuation-reforms-that-would-promote-fairness-and-equity
• John Quiggin on oz-and-the-anglosphere
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-coalition-equals-term-high
• The Kouk on turnbull-government-using-shonky-reasoning-on-tax , ignore-the-unemployment-data-at-your-peril-they-are-probably-correct
• Greg Jericho on unemployment-at-59-something-to-sing-about-or-is-it-too-good-to-be-true
• Peter Christoff onaustralias-climate-targets-still-out-of-reach-after-second-emissions-auction

Northerm America

• James Hamilton on preparing-for-lift-off
• Edward Lambert on fed-be-opt-pess-surp
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-onto-the-next-question
• Menzie Chinn on what-the-taylor-rules-says, inflation-expectations-can-change-quickly, potential-gdp-again
• Barry Eichengreen on why-fed-is-delaying-interest-rate-liftoff Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on decline-and-fall-of-america-s-working-class, black-immigrant-mobility
• David Beckworth on fact-checking-fact-checkers
• Sandwichman on the-strange-cult-of-henry-george
• Dan Crawford on forecasting-the-2016-election-economy-in-which-i-respond-to-nate-silver
• Calculated Risk on update-prime-working-age-population-growing-again
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on being-an-inflation-hawk-means-never-having-to-say-youre-sorry
• Tony Yates on nk2-and-whether-it-matters-if-his-knowledge-of-nk-macronk1
• Timothy Taylor on how-many-deaths-from-mistakes-in-us-healthcare

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on bernanke-on-austerity-and-fiscal-charter , privatisations-why-we-need-fiscal-watchdog , faux-meritocracy, more-on-uk-interest-and-exchange-rates, europes-other-taboo-reform-of-ecb, osborne-cameron-and-fiscal-responsibility
• Peter Dorman on parsing-portugal
• Tony Yates on commitment-and-risk-management-motives-for-inflation-target-overshooting
• Chris Dillow on blairism-vs-the-left, best-practice-1

Asia

• Jamal Kanj on israeli-self-inflicted-hate
• Malcolm Cook on China-Taiwan-rare-alignment-of-interests
• Growth economics on tyler-noah-and-bob-walk-into-a-chinese-bar Thanks Mark
• Andrew Fagan on aung-san-suu-kyi-victory-will-test-commitment-to-human-rights-in-myanmar
• Sebastian Strangio on What-comes-after-the-long-awaited-red-dawn-in-Myanmar
• Anmrit Wilson on india-gender-violence-is-at-heart-of-hindu-rights-agenda

Wonk

• Nick Rowe on drop-your-shovels-now-on-ending-fiscal-policy-in-nk-models , robots-and-the-core
• Noah Smith on panics-and-bubbles-reading-list
• David Andolfatto on fisher-without-euler
• Timothy Taylor on journal-of-economic-perspectives-fall , overconfidence-the-ancient-evil , calibrating-hype-about-online-higher-education , what-are-real-economic-gains-from-uber
• Chris Dillow on limits-of-the-profit-motive , elites-vs-representation
• Barkely Rosser on did-bernanke-and-crew-save-world
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on paul-krugman-austeritys-grim-legacy
• Noah Smith on case-deaton-and-human-capital-debate , minimum-wages-are-great-except-when-they-re-not
• John Quiggin on are-recessions-abnormal-crosspost-from-crooked-timber
• Simon Wren-Lewis on where-would-you-get-money-from
• Cechetti and Schoenholtz on learning-from-japan-its-hard-to-end-a-deflation Thanks Mark
• David Glasner on talk-about-sound-money-heckuva-job-bitcoin, thinking-about-interest-and-irving-fisher
• Susan Harris Rimmer on we-lose-more-than-we-gain-in-moving-away-from-multilateral-trade 
• Tim Harford on when-wishful-thinking-becomes-wasteful
• Edward Lambert on low-inf-from-low-int-rates
• Croaking Cassandra on the-nation-as-a-club

General

• Paul Dimeo on athletics-doping-report-should-spark-radical-rethink-on-drugs-in-sport
• Krystof Bolejko on from-newton-to-einstein-the-origins-of-general-relativity
• Eric Heinze on can-europe-make-it/eric-heinze/what-is-holocaust-commemoration-for-remembering-kristallnacht
• Darren Saunders on cooking-the-books-when-that-sensational-new-research-finding-isnt-all-it-seems
• Lord Keynes on blaming-capitalism-for-virtually-evrything-wrong-with-the-world
• Judy Rose on time-pressure-may-be-a-better-way-to-measure-work-life-balance
• Ana Bracic and Amanda Murdie on india-gender-violence-is-at-heart-of-hindu-rights-agenda
• Marc Bellemare on Galbraith's writing advice

Climate

• Ellycia Harrould- Kolieb on ocean-acidification-the-forgotten-piece-of-the-carbon-puzzle
• moyhu on the-ice-age-scare
• and Then There's Physics on noaa-vs-lamar-smith , the-1c-milestone, lomborg-if-we-emit-more-well-warm-more
• Scott Barrett, Carlo Carroro and Jaime De Meilo on towards-workable-and-effective-climate-regime
• Greg Laden on rates-of-climate-change-potentially-very-high
• Jonathan Bamber on so-what-is-really-happening-in-antarctica
• Rob Painting on Why-were-the-ancient-oceans-favorable-to-marine-life-when-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-was-higher-than-today
• Artic sea ice blog on if-global-warming-continues-unabated

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• correcting-rising-morbidity-and-mortality-in-midlife-among-white-non-hispanic-americans-in-the-21st-century-to-account-for-bias-in
• age-adjustment-mortality-update
• what-happened-to-mortality-among-45-54-year-old-white-non-hispanic-men-it-declined-from-1989-to-1999-increased-from-1999-to-2005-and-held-steady-after-that
• priors-for-coefficients-and-variance-parameters-in-multilevel-regression
• you won't believe these stunning transformations
• using-prediction-markets-to-estimate-the-reproducibility-of-scientific-research
• death-rates-have-been-increasing-for-middle-aged-white-women-decreasing-for-men
• talebs-precautionary-principle
• inference-from-an-intervention-with-many-outcomes-not-using-statistical-significance
• Tamino on flippant-accusations
• Kaiser Fung on statbusters-games-people-play-with-the-placebo-effect , know-your-data-16-what-have-you-copied-for-pasting-today , researcher-who-pushed-nudging-wants-companies-to-stop-using-nudges-that-annoy-people , andrew-gelman-delivers-a-lesson-on-statistical-adjustment-so-you-can-relax-about-middle-aged-men-killing-themselves
• Frances Dielbold on a-fascinating-event-studyl

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics

• Marc Bellemare on list of metric monday articles

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• kilkenomics-laughs-and-books , so-you-want-to-be-a-superforecaster , bankrupt-banks, authors-at-the-festival-of-economics  what-scented-candles-say-to-an-economist ( Thanks Mark) 
• Peter Cochrane on book-review-before-rupert-keith-murdoch-and-the-birth-of-a-dynasty

Vox wonk

• income-inequality-pre-industrial-europe
• supervising-bank-culture
• home-market-advantage-car-industry
• eurozone-crisis-looking-back-future
• external-imbalances-within-eurozone-dutch-disease-explanation
• ranking-journals-novelty
• rebalancing-finance
• trans-pacific-partnership-trade-agreement-and-then-some
• rebalancing-finance
• austerity-s-impact-ez-growth-2011-2013
• short-sighted-monetary-policy-and-fear-liftoff
• why-us-unemployment-not-done-falling
• when-us-intergenerational-income-mobility-vanished-1900-1920
• protectionism-and-fall-world-trade
• why-us-unemployment-not-done-falling
• when-us-intergenerational-income-mobility-vanished-1900-1920
• black-names-past-present-and-future
• alternative-measures-of-government-indebtedness
• migration-s-response-increasing-temperatures
• firms-organisational-choices-along-value-chains
• past-vox-columns-terrorism-and-terrorists

Just a small note on becoming a republic

Peter Fitzsimmons has revitalized the Republican debate and with Charles coming here we know learn via essential that most Aussies do not want him to become King of Australia,

Basically the idea of a monarchy is stupid really really stupid.

You only allow a person's genes to determine who the head of state is not their ability.

Capitalism is based on meritocracy. If you do not allow this to be the basis of every job opportunity then you wither and die.

some thoughts on the dismissal

November 11 is a very interesting day in Australia. We have Armistice or Remembrance day.  I prefer Armistice day.

We have Ned Kelly's hanging.

But we also had the dismissal of the the ALP government in 1975.

My memory of the dismissal of Gough Whitlam was studying at home whilst listening to Steve Liebman on 2UE. He was talking to Katherine West when his Canberra correspondent rang in ( he was Kevin someone who was the Canberra correspondent for the Daily Telegraph). He informed the program that Gough had been sacked. Liebman's reaction was "shit"

I remember thinking at the time the Liberals were way too impatient. They merely had to wait for the election for everyone to vote against the present government.  The ALP government had finally gotten some decent ministers. Hayden, McCellend, Wriedt were all quite good minsters and the government was finally looking competent.

The dismissal changed my vote from voting for the liberals to voting for the ALP purely because of their actions of essentially raping the constitution.
There are new books ( by Paul Kelly and Jenny Hocking) on the crisis bolstered by the opening up of papers hitherto unread.
These papers do not help Kerr's Fraser's. Mason's, Barwick's or even Whitlam's reputations at ball.

It will never occur again. Fraser never had the legitimacy to follow through on any policy.

It made the election of the ALP in 1983 that much easier.

The Ice age scare

Nick Stokes does everyone a favour by showing up what scientists were saying in the 70s even 60s about the planet cooling.

Has technology improved our life like we thought it would ?

I remember way back in high school and even at Uni the major thought about technology was how would we spend all this extra leisure time?

Unfortunately it hasn't turned out like that.
I said last week one of the problems of junior cricket is the lack of parents, This is directly due to the parents working at home on Saturday morning.
I have a mate who refuses a smart phone at any job he has. He believes  ,rightly in my view, that it means means extra work for no pay.

I have two anecdotes.
One from a long time ago when I arrived to work one Monday morning and was asked by my boss at the Monday meeting why my mobile was turned off on the weekend. I told him because I didn't work on the week-end!

I remember another occasion I left work on a Friday saying I had so much left to do on a certain project.  i was asked again when I arrived at work early Monday morning what I had to do and I said the same as I told him on Friday. He then asked me why I hadn't finished it on the weekend. I then told him of not only my wedding anniversary but also of two grand finals that occurred over the weekend and then asked him which of those things he wanted me to cancel.

Technology is a blessing. I realise this just from a cricket administration point of view but it also has let employers make people work  unpaid overtime at home and this is a bad thing. It is also unsustainable.I know this from all the feedback I am getting from volunteer organisations.

Around the Traps 6/11/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.
I read all articles however I do not support all views. I simply give air to interesting points of view.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• James Horne on as-drought-looms-the-murray-darling-is-in-much-healthier-shape-just-dont-get-complacent
• Marc C Scott on /optus-the-new-player-in-australias-sports-media-rights-battle
• Emma Connor on Why-no-tears-will-be-shed-for-Australias-knights-and-dames
• Croaking Cassandra on another-productivity-commission-inquiry , how-the-reserve-bank-thinks-we-should-evaluate-its-monetary-policy, Unemployment a pretty poor record, thinking-further-about-employment-and-unemployment , the-joint-macroeconomic-declaration
• Mark the Ballot on aggregation-and-observations
• Tomas Mitchell on gst-compensation-trades-one-inefficiency-for-another-and-wont-achieve-fairness
• Stephen Hatfield-Dodds on study-australians-can-be-sustainable-without-sacrificing-lifestyle-or-economy
• Micharl Brull on israeli-government-propaganda-still-gets-facebook-likes-despite-linking-to-wrong-story
• Ross Gittins on why-were-sure-to-be-voting-on-rise-in-GST
• The Kouk on why-the-aussie-dollar-will-move-higher
• After Grog Blog on the FIRST TEST
• Flavio Menzies on increasing-gst-to-cut-income-tax-would-be-a-zero-sum-game
• Greg Jericho on turnbull-has-improved-confidence-but-what-the-economy-needs-is-more-spending

Northern America

• Rhys Bidder on are-wages-useful-in-forecasting-price-inflation Thanks Mark
• James Hamilton on u-s-economy-keeps-growing
• Menzie Chinn on the-opening-of-the-american-macroeconomy-and-the-implications-for-monetary-policy
• Edward Lambert on inc-soc-ben-is-lm
• Timothy Taylor on update-on-national-school-lunch-program
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-what-2016-might-bring
• Brad De Long on secular-stagnation-vs-ben-bernanke

Europe

• Bahar Baser and Ahmet Ozturk on turkey-election-erdogan-and-the-akp-get-majority-back-amid-climate-of-violence-and-fear
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-ecb-as-sovereign-lender-of-last-resiort, politically-impossible, public-investment-has-george-started-listening-to-economists
• Chris Dillow on intellect-in-politics
• Daniel Wokes on Erdogan-will-the-strongman-of-Europe-evolve-into-a-democratic-progressive
• Murat Es and Rolien Hoyng on censorship-and-conspiracy-theories-rule-day-in-post-election-turkey
• Tony Yates on monetary-policy-hypotheticals , inflation-overshooting-should-not-be-a-major-concern

Asia

• Brendan Thomas-Loone on China-US-New-study-reveals-dramatic-tilt-in-military-balance
• Leon Berkemans on Chinas-GDP-data-Reason-to-keep-on-believing
• Menzies Chinn on guest-contribution-text-of-trans-pacific-partnership-agreement-now-online

Wonk

• Kruggers on explaining-trade-weakness-wonkish, liquidity-traps-temporary-and-permanent, demand-creates-its-own-supply , currency-wars-at-the-zlb
• David Andolfatto on neofisherism-without-rational-expectations
• Brad De Long on cracking-the-hard-shell-of-the-macroeconomic-knut-keynesian-friedmanite-and-wicksellian-epistemes-in-macroeconomics
• Edward Lambert on keynes-ed-id-ir, keynes-promise-ed
• Carola Binder on did-natural-rate-fall
• Simon Wren-Lewis on fiscal-council-developments, tax-cuts-vs-spending-vs-helicopters
• Chris Dillow on on-misunderstanding-economics
• Antonio Fatas on the-missing-lowflation-revolution
• Noah Smith on conservatives-don-t-have-a-secret-formula-for-growth, growth-vs-static-efficiency
• Larry Summers on reconstructing-keynesian-macroeconomics
• Nick Rowe on secular-stagnation-and-mutual-fund-marxism , business-cycle-theory-vs-growth-theory
• Noah Smith on big-tfp-data-mystery
• Tony Yates on is-monetary-policy-adventurism-by-politicians-ok
• Timothy Taylor on land-use-regulations-vs-negotiations
• Antonio Fatas on the-missing-lowflation-revolution
• Nick Gruen on the-costs-of-social-breakdown-anomie-despair
• David Glasner on the-well-defined-but-nearly-useless-natural-rate-of-interest

General

• Ryan Spencer on five-reasons-why-you-should-read-aloud-to-your-kids-and-pick-their-favourite-book
• Barkely Rosser on george-will-starting-out-smart-and-dumbs-down-anti-semtism
• Lord Keynes on self-refuting-nonsense
• Chris Dillow on grit-beats-talent 
• David Morrison on al-qaeda-isis-and-wider-fallout-from-iraq-invasion

Climate

• Andrew Gilkson on melting-antarctic-ice-sheets-and-sea-level-rise-a-warning-from-the-future 
• hotwhopper on antarctic-ice-growing-or-shrinking-nasa
• and Then Theres Physics on greenland-and-climate-science-denial, honesty-and-hypocrisy , arguing-ad-argumentam-in-an-ad-hominem-world , steve-koonin-in-the-new-york-times
• moyhu on ncepncar-index-up-02
• Harry Clarke on droughts-climate-change-some-ideas-about-policy , climate-change-policy-under-uncertainty-2
• Stoat on mass-gains-of-the-antarctic-ice-sheet-exceed-losses
• Kevin C on homogenization_of_temperature_data
• David Appell on coastal-west-antarctic-gaining-snow-mass
• Artic sea ice blog on piomas-november-2015
• Greg Laden on evidence-of-high-climate-sensitivity
• Mitchell Black , Andrew King and David Karoly on a-year-of-records-the-human-role-in-2014s-wild-weather
• Tamino on thoughtful-insightful-intelligent-commentary
• Ingenious Pursuits on monckton-pause-update-its-got-to-go
• What's up with that Watts on mistakes-learning-replicatingclaims
• Rabette run on the-deep-blue-sea

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• cauchy-priors-for-logistic-regression-coefficients
• stop screaming already
• another-reminder-that-david-brooks-is-very-good-at-being-david-brooks
• the-tabloids-strike-again-2
• local-instruments-global-extrapolation
• why-retraction-watch-remains-necessary
• Kaiser Fung on keep-eating-those-sausages , rip-gft

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Marc Bellemare on multi-collinearity

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• american-growth , winner-of-the-enlightened-economist-prize-2015, the-devil-take-the-debt, economic-progress
• Frances Woolley on toasted-pumpkin-seeds-or-waste-is-a-value-judgement
• Mathew Yglesias on star_trek_movies_and_tv_series_which_are_the_best_why  Thanks Brad

Vox wonk

• exchange-rates-still-matter-trade
• social-networks-ethnicity-and-entrepreneurship
• german-reunification-lessons-european-fiscal-union
• european-smes-struggle-raise-equity-capital
• securitisation-and-growth-collateral-matters
• online-hiring-offshore-workers
• copyright-and-creativity-lessons-italian-opera
• restarting-global-economy
• offshoring-and-geography-british-jobs
• how-tackle-europe-s-non-performing-loan-problem
• welcome-zlb-global-economy

Cricket and stuff

The First Test against the Kiwis ( I think it could a be beauty) starts today and it got me thinking.

This is the first cricket season for fourteen seasons I won't be coaching cricket. For the first time I can sleep in on Saturdays. I get to the game I am umpiring before the toss and can inspect the ground!

I do miss the coaching and seeing the enthusiasm of the boys. We finished on a high though. Unbeaten through out the season and winning a close final.

I won't miss little support from parents though. There is a lot of work to do in coaching a team.One embarrassing thing that occurred in recent times was that I had no -one to score when we were fielding.
I do think that technology has decreased our leisure time not increased it.

I do wonder about the future of cricket when parents do not have the time to watch their boys for a morning  at all during the season even in a final where their team are the favorites.

Update:

Channel Nine have really boring people as commentators bar Chapelli.
the ABC do seem to be trying to ape channel nine. Gerard Whately is a wonderful commentator on many sports and can commentate on other sports but not cricket.

Star Trek. The best post for Trekkies

If you are a trekkie like me me then THIS is essential reading.

I don't agree with all of it but who cares!

Tax Reform

We had a PBO estimate yesterday into a MP reference to them about how much revenue a GST would gain if it was essentially the same as in New Zealand.

We have a few problems when discussing this.

If you raise and broaden the GST ( which I  have no problem with ) the following things need to be done:

• the poor have to be compensated
• The States have to get rid of taxes that inhibit economic activity. as the HENRY Review recommended.
• The States need more revenue to compensate for the funds the Federal government are no longer going to give them
• It needs to gain more revenue to the States over and above the last point so the Federal government can cut income taxes ( from monies they no longer have to give to the States)

Thus you have to raise one hellva lot of revenue to do all these things.

I do not have any problems with any of the above items but I do think it would be politically courageous.

I do agree with Noah Smith