It matters not that Tony Abbott won yesterday's vote on the spill motion.
A large majority of backbenchers do not want him as leader. The was not organised yet the vote was quite large. Thus he has been put on notice. If the polls do not change he is cactus.
The polls were quite blunt in telling the Liberal party they wanted a change in leaders just as they have been in previous contests.
Abbott has said he will change however we know he cannot. He has said umpteem times he would change and hasn't. He hasn't because he cannot anymore then Kevin Rudd could.
Previously he could make 'captain's calls and not worry because he was a successful Opposition Leader and then won the 2013 election.
This no longer counts. People in the Liberal party have finally woken up to what the polls are.
As a consequence I expect Abbott to try and change but prove to be unsuccessful in doing so. As a consequence of this I expect he will be replaced by Turnbull.
There is no other person who can do so.
Hockey has proved to be the failure I thought he would be.
Bishop was a terrible failure as shadow treasurer and people in the Liberal caucus still remember this.
Morrison is in a portfolio which provides no fodder for demonstrating he is PM material.
The major problem when you replace a PM ( and isn't is ironic that Abbott like Rudd believes only the electorate can replace a PM despite the fact they do not vote for that position) you then have to enunciate on why you did that. As the ALP found out it is very hard to argue you had good policies but a bad PM. If there are bad policies whom ever replaces the PM was part of delivering those
Steve from Brisbane has this on his blog about Abbott.
Peter Martin is also devastating. and which Steve also links.
Another blunder. We have a competitive evaluation process but no-one can tell us what that means!