Tuesday, 22 April 2014


The CPI is out. I think we can say it means Ricardian Ambivalence 1 The Kouk 0.
The previous quarter's figures were artificially high due to the declining dollar.

This means interest rates remain where they are so both non-mining investment and consumption can rise whilst mining investment declines.
Of course if you forecast STAGFLATION  you have have even more egg on your face!

I should add wages growth at present would imply a lower inflation rate ( and is the key determinant if you ever get stagflation as well.)

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