Tuesday, 26 November 2013

The Polls

There has been conjecture that the two major polls ,Neilsen and Newspoll, are showing different results and thus one is a rogue.

Is this correct?

First let us go to the pollbudger for Neilsen and for Newspoll. and also Mumble for Newspoll.

Now a bit of history is needed. In the 2004 election the polls which did better in 2PP terms were the ones who used the preference flows from the previous election. Hence ever since then this is what all polling organisations do now EXCEPT at present they do not have preference flows from the last election. Thus they have used preference flows from the 20120 election.

Some people have done a rough and ready preference flow from the last election.
When they do that they get a 2PP vote thus:
Neilsen       49:51
Newspoll   51: 49
Reachtel     51:49

After taking into account the margin of error the polls are saying basically the same thing.
Kevin Bonham is still correct!

Special Bonus. Kevin Bonham on Essential polling ( historical but useful and of course was in Around the Traps)

Special bonus update. Philip Lowe The RBA Deputy Governor made an important speech recently.
If you read it carefully then it means nominal GDP growth will be quite limited UNLESS...
This is bad news if you rabbitted on about how easy it was to get the budget into the black!
Interesting times.