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He is skeptikoi. he comes from a equities background and should prove interesting to read.

Put him down on your list.

Castle Who is Richard Castle?

Before I start.

For any Castle fans writing on the castlewalls is a must read. She writes beautifully and even when I disagree with her I still love reading her.
Go here to read what people are feeling about the series and what may eventuate.
Then go here  to join The Squab and The Quail HATERS ANONYMOUS membership roster. 
President Danny G Superstar!!  This is about the episode which will never ever be NAMED!

Early beginnings
We know his name is Richard Alexander Rogers. He never knows his father until very late. His father is in the CIA. His mother is an actress , Martha Rogers.
When little she had a lot of nannies look after him but we learn their care wasn't too flash. He then goes to a lot of boarding schools when gaining an education.

All of this makes him insecure. It is likely he was bullied at school and he counters by using his humour and sharp wit to gain popularity.  It is at one of these schools some-one tells him has has real talent as a writer. this is something he take to heart and ever after always fervently believes. ( somewhat ironically he solves the very crime this mentor of his is involved in however it means his mentor was actively involved in murdering his own father.)

He goes to University and does well.It is here he changes his name to Castle as it sounds a better name for a writer. He writes a best-seller whilst still there BUT he had to persevere and hawk it around to a lot of publishers before it actually hit the shelves. from that moment forward he earns a comfortable living as a writer.


We know he does a lot of research and has a great eye for detail.

Relationships
Kyra
He is with Kyra for over three years whilst at university. we know he loved her deeply and wanted to marry her BUT she did not believe in marriage and she went overseas. communication problems meant neither got in touch with the other and they never meant until Castle investigated the murder at Kyra's wedding.
Meredith
We can speculate here that  Castle never wanted to marry Meredith. We know from his talk with Kyra he didn't love Meredith but we also know he enjoyed having sex with her. Given we know Meredith is a compulsive liar and loves the good life it is not out of the realms of possibility that Meredith deliberately got pregnant to get part of the castle gravy train.
After all she is not physically attractive and her personality leaves a lot to be desired. Also it is way too early for Castle to want marriage after Kyra.
She cannot help herself and she is caught in bed with her director. She doesn't want Alexis and so Castle gains custody.
Gina
This marriage is very strange. Why would he get married so son after being divorced? Yes she is quite attractive BUT she is a successful publishing executive working long hours. We learn that little sex happened, probably because of the long working hours. we know Gina is a safe bet but boring.

Daughter
One of the best things that happens to him was the birth of his daughter Alexis. Absurdly she has no  family characteristics at all. She is a  diligent and very bright student, quite responsible and quite protective of her father. She is very close to him and this is because he brought her up being a house dad.

Playboy/womaniser
It is AFTER his divorce with Gina Castle develops a reputation for being a playboy.  This is most probably the brainstorm of Paula his agent and Gina who is also his publisher. He wouldn't have the time to be out with any women whilst he is looking after Alexis at home but it is a different matter when she is school age.
The reputation is a sham. No ladies man has a relationship for over 3 years with one woman ( Kyra) and then gets married for a similar time with Meredith and again gets married for a much shorter time with Gina.
Castle uses this public image to avoid emotional attachment to any woman. He is simply after sex if the woman desires it as well.
Personality
Castle is an extrovert and a person who is well liked. For example he regularly plays cards with Roy Montgomery, the Mayor and the Judge who allows Beckett's affidavits. He always beat them but they always come back to play.
He is self deprecating. He is a much better shot than Beckett  yet when he shoots the gun out of the hand of some-one about to shoot Beckett he said he was aiming for his head!
He is very good under pressure. Whether it is telling Beckett to get behind him when the tiger is about to pounce or when he deliberately gets her talking about she was always into him to help her  get distracted from the bomb she is standing on.
Caskett
It takes time for Castle to get interested in Beckett. clearly he is interested in her as a character for his books. She is so interesting he can write and write. In the early stages he plays up his public persona which Beckett clearly believes.
He does this to gain information about her both directly and more importantly indirectly. however it is not long when he ditches this and realises what an extraordinary woman she is.
He must know Beckett likes him. When he starts following her she instantly changes her hairstyle, puts on make-up, lipstick and eye shadow and wears more stylish clothes.
The Caskett relationship probably starts when he apologizes for examining her mother's case.
She sees him in a different light. 
He is clearly worried about directly asking her out so he asks her to the Hampton's but only platonically!
from the moment he comes back and is accepted again we can say they are in love with each other but neither will admit it.
Castle clearly gets the Demming /Beckett relationship wrong. He thinks it will not last but then when it does he starts a cold war with Demming. Demming moves too fast and Becket eventually chooses Castle but too late.
Castle is much more circumspect with Josh. He always asks questions about him and realises that the relationships going nowhere. 
This provokes two things in Castle, He never admits to being in love with Beckett as she is with Josh.
He uses the term ALWAYS. This is an emotional intimate word and it allows him to say i love you to Beckett without him actually having to say the words . She realises this and in turn uses the word as well for the same reason. The Caskett relationship becomes much stronger emotionally as a result.
How much does he love her. He was willing to take a bullet for her at the funeral, He waited four years for her and he was not willing to live without her if she was killed by the bomb she was standing on.
One aspect of the relationship strangely rarely mentioned is how both of them get off when they solve murders together.
It is almost like they are having sex.you can see the ecstasy in their eyes  when they say to each other they know who the murderer is.Almost but not quite DH Lawrence allusions

Proposal
the proposal is strange but understandable. He believes by proposing he can show Beckett he is serous about their relationship and he can help Beckett overcome her irrational fears. He is grimaced at the swings because he has to get it right. He cannot live with a NO.
He also sees the woman Beckett can be once these fears are gone hence his patience.

update:

I failed to mention Castle is not a vindictive person at all. He is afterall possibly the only divorced husband to continue to still have sex with his ex-wife even tough he caught in his own bed with her director!

Whoopsy again compulsory Castle/Coldplay video

Jefferson Starship

Jefferson Starship did not age well.

Here are two of their best.

First Fast Buck Freddie

and from the same album Papa John Creach on Get Fiddler

Around the Traps 27/7/13

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Debate on who should be the next Chair of the Fed in bold in northern America section


Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Paul Fritjers on magical explanations of the rise in obesity 
• Mark the Ballot on weekly-aggregation the Pollbludger with bludgertrack-50-5-49-5-to-coalition
• Mumble on the_one_big_reason, personal_votes_in_queensland,what_the_doctor_ordered, way_out_west
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch , reachtel-tas-federal-babylon-still-falling
• Pottinger on a-note-on-essential-and-their-two-week-rolling-average
• The Piping Shrike on foreigners, the-new-regionalism
• John Quiggin on the-rights-anti-wind-campaign-is-pure-scaremongering
• The incomparable Ricardian Ambivalence on q2-cpi-low-enough-for-an-august-cut , trimming-is-better-cpi-edition
• Grog's Gamut on june-cpi-figuresinflation-growing-at-2.3 and Mark the Graph as well
• Peter Martin on inflation-is-too-low-stand-by-for-pre-election-cut
• Don Arthur on the-structure-of-public-problems
• Andrew Elder on jakarta-centred-foreign-policy, national service
• Alan Moran shows us He has no idea of what markets are. Really fancy linking Terry McCrann! 
• Ross Gittins on weve-had-enough-ir-reform-to-last-us-a-whilel

Northern America

• Brad De Long on margaret-sullivan-explains-why-oh-why-we-cant-have-a-better-press-corps  Remarkable
• Kruggers on a-tale-of-two-rust-belt-cities, did-sprawl-kill-horatio-alger, atl-v-bos, this-time-was-predictable, the-death-of-high-inflation,miltons-paradise-still-lost
• Noah Smith on is-interest-rate-on-reserves-holding-back-recovery and Kruggers been-there-done-that-monetary-and-fiscal-policy-edition
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy and fed-watch-negative-feedback-loops
• Mark Thoma on larry-summers-is-the-front-runner-wtf
• Menzie Chinn on prescience_2007
• Mark Thoma on fed-watch-shock-and-aweful
• Barkely Rosser on obama-and-harvard-games-summers-vs.-Yellen, the-fed-is-not-like-treasury-or-whitehousel
• Brad De Long on illegitimate-and-unfair-larry-summers-bashing-the-smart-and-thoughtful-matthew-klein-gets-one-wrong, the-federal-reserve-succession
• Mike Konzal on yellen-summers-and-rebuilding-after-fire
• Ricardian Ambivalence on qe-outlook-dims-as-summers-brightens
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-new-home-sales
• Mark Thoma on us-infrastructure-underinvestment-vs-other-developed-nations and 
• Noah Smith on nfrastructure-skeptics-take-hit
• Carola Binder on president-obamas-big-frothy-hint

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on some_thoughts_on_recent-chinese-growth
• James Hamilton on worries_about_china
• Brad De Long gives is the-secret-of-abenomics-by-david-beckworth-and-lars-christensen

Europe

• Tim Harford on welfare-and-the-tinker-bell-policy
• John McHale on more-on-self-defeating-adjustment
• Kevin O'Rourke on what-would-it-take-to-make-the-eu-admit-the-strategy-isnt-working, irelands-and-britains-and-italys-long-recession
• Simon Wren-Lewis on crossing-line-at-ecb

Wonk

• Simon Wren-Lewis on how-much-has-austerity-cost-so-far , getting-unhinged-by-unhinged
• Edward Lambert on paul-krugman-leads-us-to-effective-demand
• Mark Thoma on why-economics-needs-economic-history
• Noah Smith on learn-basics-of-new-keynesian-models-without-hard-math
• Lord Keynes on epistemology-and-kinds-of-knowledge
• Steve Roth on not-spending-is-not-investment
• The inestimable David Glasner on on-a-difficult-passage-in-the-general-theory  Yes David the General Theory is a very hard read!!

General

• Frances Woolley on smoking-and-health-care-expenditures
• Dianne Coyle on non-satiation-or-the-paradox-of-choice, politics-populism-and-people, the-loneliness-of-the-long-distance-whistleblower, thinking-aslant-about-development-economics
• Noah Smith on when-have-econ-blogs-changed-your-mind
• Lord Keynes on blaming-herbert-hoover-for-wrong-reasons, fine-tuning-and-probability
• Livio De Matteo on does-the-end-of-growth-mean-the-rise-of-inequality
• Carlo Cotterelli on the-times-they-are-a-changin-will-fiscal-history-repeat-itself  Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on gimme-that-old-time-macroeconomics, deficits-and-interest-rates-the-history, stiglitz-minsky-and-obama

Brian Banisch (Climate)

• origin-energys-blurred-vision
• Brad De Long on brad-delong-is-the-stupidest-man-alive-monday-delong-smackdown-watch-hoisted-from-archives-from-2004
• John Quiggin on  declining-electricity-consumption-in-australia

Andrew Gelman (Statistics)

• defensive-political-science-responds-defensively-to-an-attack-on-social-science
• my-talks-scheduled-for-tues-at-the-data-skeptics-meetup-and-wed-at-the-open-statistical-programming-meet-up
• top-5-stat-papers-since-2000
• christakis-response-to-my-comment-on-his-comments-on-social-science
• too-good-to-be-true-the-scientific-mass-production-of-spurious-statistical-significance
• bayes-respecting-experimental-design-and-other-things
• the-inside-story-of-the-harvard-dissertation-that-became-too-racist-for-heritage
• teaching-is-hard
• Good Stats Bad Stats on fish oil and prostate cancer, income mobility

Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• information-criteria-unveiled

Dianne Coyle and Frances Woolley (Quirky)

• Tim Harford on undercover-economist-the-laws-of-rockonomics 
• Dianne on supply-and-demand-for-authors

Voxwonk

• how-avoid-middle-income-traps-evidence-malaysia
• us-labour-market-broken-and-without-unemployment-benefits
• what-drives-protests-brazil-corruption-ineptitude-and-elections
• accounting-ethnic-unemployment-gap-france-and-us
• why-economics-needs-economic-history
• how-immigrant-children-affect-academic-achievement-native-dutch-children
• what-explains-recent-rise-non-traditional-reserve-currencies
• transport-infrastructure-and-market-integration-lessons-british-industrial-revolution

The Blogosphere at its best

Most days I really enjoy reading around the traps and the various articles written.

Today was no exception. I could do this I think any week but to select but two articles which would be beneficial to read and understand then:

Read  Ricardian Ambivalence. I make no apology for being a huge fan of this man.

He works in the financial markets yet goes out of his way to write about the financial markets to help people understand them better. In this article he tells us why we should be examining the trimmed mean estimate of the CPI rather than the weighted median.
( I should have mentioned it was our own RBA that started this emphasis. now the Cleveland Fed provides similar figures for the USA when its monthly CPI is released. Why oh why can't WE have a Monthly CPI????)

Kevin O'Rourke writes at what I call Voxwonk on why-economics-needs-economic-history. this is an update about what he wrote about at the blog The Irish economy. It is essential reading as well.

Indeed Noah Smith writes about when-have-econ-blogs-changed-your-mind. In both these cases if you were thinking something different change your mind now!!.

Thank you Ricardo and Kevin from the bottom of my heart.

(Of course MY big discovery was why Kate Beckett was running away from Castle!!)

Castle -Who is Kate Beckett another update.

Only TWO months before episode 1 Series6!!!!

The lovely lady at writing on the castle walls has written her opinion on my theory of Our Kate having an affair with a married man.

She replies here and here.   She is very kind in her answers however I am thinking perhaps I need to put more meat on my  Castlesque theory on Beckett!

• Beckett is quite put out by the married man having an affair in episode 2  where (Castle immediately writes of Nikki Heat having had a broken heart.) and then in the next episode where the dead local politician is found in a compromising position with a woman later found to be a prostitute.
• It has to happen very close to her mother's murder as Our Kate thinks her emotional reactions are all about her mother's murder. Thus it happens when she is at University.
• He is a Vaughn like sleazebag whose ways mesmerise her and she falls deeply in love with him.
• It is also likely to be short but  highly passionate.
• Our Kate is no home wrecker so she most definitely did NOT know he was married.
• When she finds out she confronts him and he claims he is going to separate from his wife but of course doesn't.
• This leads to her feeling both a conquest and he got tired of her and moved on.  

Now let us examine some theories about who it could have been or even if it wasn't who she was in love with.

Will Sorensen

He is immediately out of the picture. Castle has met him and Castle tells Beckett she does not go out with men she is in love with at the end of Series 3. This includes Sorensen.

Sorensen happens after her bad 'affair' and was only for 6 months.

Beckett would have known he would be transferred to another city. So it is an easy option for her. She goes out with some-one who she likes but does not love and when he is transferred the affair is over. She doesn't even have to tell him it is over. The relationship is classic Beckett.

Beckett and Sorensen are never really close in the last two episodes of the first series. Her reactions to Sorensen  are similar to her reactions to Demmng later.

Mike Royce

Lots of problems here. Yes she does say to him on the phone in Series 3 episode 3 she was in love with him BUT  she is giving him new information. Castle had already had lunch with him and would have picked up any 'love vibes' between Beckett and Royce. There were none around. moreover Beckett would have NEVER EVER let Castle help her get Royce's murderer if he had been a lover. She would have known Castle would have picked something up. Beckett never reacts to Royce's murder as a former lover being murdered only as a close friend.

Castle of course knows Royce so would be on the list as well IF he had been a lover.

Implications

As I said a few days ago it is the brief but passionate affair that leads to Our Kate having the doubts in her affair with Castle which come out in the final three episodes of series 5. Without this theory the last three episodes simply do not make sense.

• This affair leads us to realise Our Kate is easy meat for transparent liars as we find out later with Meredith or Vaughn. 
• She is very wary of a man dumping her in a close relationship when they tire of her.
• We know she is a glass half empty gal and so it doesn't matter how many times Castle proves his lover for her just one little thing like playing an internet game rather than having sex ( this is unbelievable but it is in the episode) provokes these fears
• It totally explains why she is such a fervent 'one and done' gal
• She is an emotionally immature woman. She never reflects at all on her relationships. She lets Josh get away with murder in episode 4 of series 3 when she should have learnt from her affair with Demming.

However at the end of all this we must remind ourselves Castle still thinks Beckett is worth it  and he is her answer and he is RIGHT!


Whoopsy obligatory Castle-Coldplay tune

Austerity is crap AGAIN

We all know that if Austerity is imposed on an economy it will make the economy worse don't we?

Well today Simon Wren-Lewis examines the costs of imposing austerity on an economy.

In the article he draws on Alan Taylor's seminal piece which I had in Around the Traps last Friday.
Kevin O'Rourke talks about when austerity is needed.

Read and then weep at why politicians follow zombie ideas at the cost of people becoming unemployed.

When oh when will people learn that the best and only time to impose austerity policies is when the economy is doing well. Keynes only pointed this out in 1936!!

Leave supporting austerity to fact free people such as those at Catallaxy!

Van the Man

How there ever been a greater singer/songwriter than Van the Man?

I don't think so.

Here he is with two of his best

first Domino

and then Into the Mystic

Castle. Who is Kate Beckett ? update

Before I start.

For any Castle fans writing on the castlewalls is a must read. She writes beautifully and even when I disagree with her I still love reading her.
Go here to read what people are feeling about the series and what may eventuate.
Then go here  to join The Squab and The Quail HATERS ANONYMOUS membership roster. 
President Danny G Superstar!!  This is about the episode which will never ever be NAMED!

Okay the main reason for this update is that the wall is cobblers.

Go to the very first three episodes of Castle.

We see our Kate very angry about married men who have affairs with women with no disregard for the consequences.

Castle immediately writes that Nikki Heat was badly hurt ( emotionally) in her life.

This was to do with their second case where a married man was promising to leave his wife and join his lover in a relationship. He didn't.

This implies Our Kate has had an affair with a married man. We do  know she is prim and proper so she would not known at first  he was married but she found out.

When confronted he swore to her he was leaving his wife and family. She didn't like this at all but in the end it was of course , as usual, all lies. She was flung aside and made to feel as just another 'conquest'.

We do know she is a sucker for the lies made by people who want to mess with her head.

Three of the most transparent liars, Meredith, Vaughn and Stack, all mess with her head when any normal person would have easily seen the lies for what they were.

The last three episodes now make sense.

Why would any normal woman think Castle is not enormously in love with her

• He tried to take a bullet for her at the funeral.
• He waited four years for her.
• He came back and was with her when she is standing on a bomb and is very likely to be killed. He is saying he cannot and will not  live on this world without her.

BUT to a woman who woman who was  scorned ( remember the Nikki Heat book launch) this is all meaningless.

She sees him preferring to play an game instead of having sex with her. She begins to think Castle is getting sick of her.

It brings back memories of her being rejected before.

Then Vaughn ,a blatant liar, gets into her head about the Caskett relationship. This simply exacerbated doubts started by that other blatant liar Meredith.

Stack gets into head head about her ability and her job despite having lied blatantly about several parts of that investigation.

This leads her to the job offer that clearly she has never thought through properly. After All if this super agency is so red hot why couldn't they solve the murder it took her team a day to solve.

Hence it was this affair that leads to all the doubts now.

Her relationships before Castle are all relationships that were never going to work.

Sorensen was with the FBI and would transferred hither and thither. She was never going to follow him.

Deming was more of a whim and an attempt to make Castle jealous.

Josh was a prat who was all over the place. Again a 'normal' relationship was never on the cards.

The Watershed to me is Our Kate finally coming to terms with all this. She now understands what family means, what her home is  and this leads to her understanding how important Castle is.

This is why she chooses the swings to meet.

It has ameliorated his anger previously and she is hoping it will again. She has to say sorry for her actions.

She approaches the swings very positive but thinks Castle will break up with her given his facial expression and his attitude.

Then he proposes. She is not expecting that at all!!

POSTSCRIPT

Some people have asked me if the Valentine's gift and the birthday present negates all this.

In fact it adds to the argument.

Beckett does both things and they are a huge thing for her to do and show how deep her love is for Castle BUT the doubts are always around. It doesn't matter how generous Castle is in his appreciation. It is just like the examples that have already been shown of his love for her.
Once Beckett gets doubts they grow because of this previous relationship with the married man!!!
We must remember Our Kate is an emotional 'bimbo'. This is hard to contemplate because she is clearly an intelligent woman but this contradiction is part of her character.

Further Postscript

This relationship with with the married man explains why Beckett is such a fervent 'one and done'girl.

The 'emotional bimbo' angle explains why she took over a year to realise there might be a contradiction between the public and private personas of Castle.
It also explains why she is so insistent Castle doesn't know her and she is right!!

It also explains why she is a glass half empty gal.

Whoopsy mandatory clip of Castle and Coldplay

Around the Traps 19/7/13

Time for Around the Traps again.
The original place for the best blogging articles of the week and the BEST!!

Simon Wren-Lewis and Noah Smith were on fire this week.

updates on the week-end.

All done now!


Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on sorry-productivity-isnt-almost-everything, return-to-surplus-less-urgent-as-economy-slows
• Mumble on is_tony_toast, do_men_vote_labor_and_women_liberal, capitulation_and_termination,electorates_by_2010_swing
• Kathryn Crosby on come-back-again-kevs-just-crazy
• Peter Martin on mostly-false-fact-checking-coaltions- carbon- tax -costing, whats-difference-between-carbon-tax-and-ETS
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch-16 july
• Mark the Ballot on when-models-fail-us
• The pollbludger on bludgertrack-50-1-49-9-to-coalition
• John Quiggin on the-return-of-the-ets, rent-seeking-rampant,is-there-a-solution-to-the-refugee-problem
• Brian Banisch on rudds-emissions-trading-play
• Harry Clarke on big-deal-rudd-repeals-carbon-tax-one-year-early
• Andrew Elder on sweetening-base
• The Ashes , Second test with Tony the Teacher!!
• Andrew Elder on my-review-of-stalking-of-julia-gillard and then Mr Denmore
• Simon Jackman on watching the Liberal leadership betting markets 
• John R Walker on on-mr-rudds-multitude-of-policy-positions-or-syntax-without-semantics

Northern America

• Jared Bernstein on checking-in-on-the-taylor-rule-and-the-fed, taylor-the-taylor-rule-and-marsupials, when-guidance-is-misguided-seek-new-guidance
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy and fed-watch-time-to-move-on, fed-watch-bernanke-takes-a-dovish-stance, fed-watch-changing-the-mix-not-level-of-accommodationl
• Menzie Chinn on what_were_they-thinking, slow_2013q2_growth
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-low-inflation-in-june
• Mark Thoma on on-the-folly-of-wage-cuts-in-a-recession
• Kruggers on the-paradox-of-flexibility, obamacare-is-the-rights-worst-nightmare
• The admirable David Glasner on bhide-and-phelps-v-reality
• Brad De Long on what-i-wish-that-i-had-said-on-the-foreign-affairs-conference-call
• Calculated Risk on janet-yellen-for-fed-chair Kruggers agrees

Asia

• nuttin

Europe

• ECBwatchers on the-trichet-doctrine-and-the-separation-between-standard-and-non-standard-measures
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-eurozones-founding-mistake

Wonk

• Robert Waldeman on a-quote-from-samuelson-and-solow-1960 Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith onjapans-stagnation-demand-side-or-supply-side then read
• Kruggers on wage-price-flexibility-in-a-liquidity-trap-again-again-again
• and then Noah again
• Mark Thoma on frbsf-economic-letter-the-path-of-wage-growth-and-unemployment
• Menzie Chinn on assessing_the_trilemma 
• Lord Keynes on moggridge-on-keyness-theory-of.-probability,a-classification-of-types-of-probability, keyness-interval-probabilities
• Simon Wren-Lewis on fiscal-backing, what-recessionl and unemployment-output-gap-and-wage-flexibilityl
• Mike Konzal on mirowski-vacuum-and-obscurity-current-economics
• Mark Thoma on responses-evoution-theory-in-economics-and-the-paradox-of-flexibility (heaps of links)

General

• Kruggers on there-is-no-true-unemployment-rate
• Simon Wren-Lewis on behaving-like-luddites
• Livio De Matteo on crime-and-macroeconomics
• Noah Smith on what-does-it-even-mean-to-believe-something , peak-oil-lives, asset-price-inflation-is-not-inflation, how-normal-people-see-macroeconomics, the-hard-money-people-throw-gene-fama-under-a-bus
• Robert Waldeman on show-me-the-model, finally-i-disagree-with-paul-krugman
• Brad De Long on quantitative-easing-once-again-monday-hoisted-from-comments-weblogging,elizabeth-anderson-friedrich-von-hayek-says-those-who-have-thought-it-through-understand-they-deserve-their-wealth-full-stop
• Progrowth liberal on rewriting-taylor-rule
• Macroblog on commodity-prices-and-inflation-the-perspective-of-firms
• Lord Keynes on herbert-hoover-myths

Brian Banisch ( climate)

• pine-island-glacier-spawns-a-giant-iceberg
• Menzie Chinn on its_been_a_hot_July
• Lord Keynes on is-long-term-climate-non-ergodic
• Harry Clarke on mortality-costs-of-chinese-air-pollution

Andrew Gelman (Statistics)

• forward-causal-inference-is-about-estimation-reverse-causal-inference-is-about-model-checking-and-hypothesis-generation
• priors
• a-poll-that-throws-away-data
• stop-and-frisk-statistics
• data-to-use-for-in-class-sampling-exercises
• youll-get-a-high-type-s-error-rate-if-you-use-classical-statistical-methods-to-analyze-data-from-underpowered-studies
• how-big-is-your-chance-of-dying-in-an-ordinary-play
• prior-distributions-on-derived-quantities-rather-than-on-parameters-themselves
• what-we-are-studying
• Normal Deviate on lost-causes-in-statistics-ii-noninformative-priors thanks Mark
• Kaiser Fong on how-to-consume-big-data, welcome-message, causal-thinking
• Good Stats Bad Stats on retirement stats and dementia and diabetes causes people to skip breakfast

Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• vintage-years-in-econometrics-the-1950s

Quirky

• The highly satisfying Frances Woolley on satisfaction
• Dianne Coyle on political-bubbles 
• Paul Fritjers on is-paying-for-votes-really-a-bad-thing

Voxwonk

• redesigning-ecb
• pseudo-flexible-exchange-rate-regimes
• what-long-term-impact-incarcerating-juveniles
• global-race-inventors
• going-beyond-mystery-italy-s-price-competitiveness-indicators
• asymmetric-oil-fuel-conflict
• when-is-the-time-for-austerity
• supranational-supervision-how-much-and-whom
• does-education-lead-more-innovation

Krugman Vs Noah Smith on Japan & a Liquidity Trap

Exciting times.

Noah Smith wrote about Japan here.

This brought out Paul Krugman to explain the consequences of a wage-price-flexibility-in-a-liquidity-trap-again-again-again

Noah Smith of course then replied. Check out the comments in particular.

I feel this debate will continue a while yet and if so I will update but this shows the blogosphere at its best.
(Simon Wren-Lewis has been the prime person behind recent debates)

Here is an important topic and there is a good and robust discussion about the subject.

I like both these writers however on this topic I think Kruggers has the advantage.

Castle & Coldplay

Castle comes back on TV tonight in Sydney so I am celebrating.

What do you get when you combine the greatest series ever written with the greatest song ever written?

Emotional Ecstasy!!


Danny G Superstar and Our Tony A class I hope you like it!

Around the Traps 12/7/13

It is time for Around the Traps this week.

updated for Saturday and Ricardian Ambivalence is back
now updated for Sunday. Wow Mark Thoma and I read very similar articles!!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie.Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ed Butler on kevins-here-to-dumb-it-down and gordon's thoughts as well
• Kathryn Crosby on i-see-you-sam-shakin-that-rudd
• Mark the ballot has weekly-aggregation-labor-on-505-per-cent
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch ,new-not-poll-added-tas-seats-at-federal-election
• The Pollbludger on bludgertrack-50-5-49-5-to-labor
• The Piping Shrike on unleashed
• Mumble on the_necessary_condition_for_re-election, two_weeks_on, carbon_tax_dumped_not_really
• Ingolf on quite-a-show
• Mr Denmore on moving-forward
• Katesy is ironic without realising it!
• Ricardian Ambivalence is back from blog holiday and says june-jobs-sets-up-for-august-rba-cut
• Mark the Graph with employment-stats-for-june and grogs gamut with the same
• Harry Clarke on plain-packaging-effective
• Robert Merkel on has-regulation-really-gotten-out-of-control-under-ruddgillard and productivity-and-australian-management

Northern America

• Kruggers on that-terrible-taper, the-monetary-debate-enter-chewbacca
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy's fed-watch-on-that-september-tapering, fed-watch-from-minutes-to-bernanke, fed-watch-friday-afternoon-fed-blogging
• Chris Mai on state-and-local-jobs-stuck-in-a-deep-hole Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on the-largest-and-most-rapid-shift-in-expected-us-monetary-policy-since-1994-the-largest-and-most-rapid-contractionary-shift-since-1981
• Mark Thoma on the-state-of-us-health-aint-so-good
• Carola Binder on divided-fed-broken-models

Japan/China

• Barkely Rosser on will-there-be-major-chinese-crash

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on an-argument-for-forward-guidance-in-uk
• Dianne Coyle on statistical-literacy-for-schools
• Kruggers on more-on-not-so-miserable-france
• Jonathon Portes on george-osborne-tax-pledge-bad-economics Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Lord Keynes on lars-p-syll-on-probability-and-economics, bibliography-on-keyness-theory-of-probability
• Owen Zidar on learning-from-inflation-experiences Thanks Brad
• Michael Bauer & Glenn Rudebusch (FRBSF)on What-caused-the-decline-long-term-us-government-bond-yields  Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on inflation_ and_debt
• Simon Wren-Lewis on economic-history-and-krugmans-crib-sheet,the-two-arguments-why-zero-lower-bound-matters
• Chris Dillow on why-study-classical-economic-thought
• Brad De Long on gavin-kennedy-and-jeff-weintraub-on-adam-smiths-behavioral-economics-and-moral-philosophy
• David Glasner on hawtrey-on-the-keynesian-explanation-of-unemployment
• Lars Christensen on the-young-keynes-was-a-monetarist Thanks Brad

General

• Noah Smith on do-inflationistas-really-believe-what-they-say?
• Kruggers as well political-inflationistas
• Nick Rowe weighs in the-inflationistas-are-our-friends-and-inside-and-outside-inflationistas
• Mark Thoma on government-consumption-versus-government-investment
• Tim Harcourt on the-need-for-less-speed
• Lord Keynes on the-great-depression-in-europe-real-gdp, mises-and-keynes-on-probability
• Kruggers on urp-versus-derp
• Dianne Coyle on unfinished-business-global-governance, lessons-from-the-past, putting-people-in-economic-theory
• Nick Rowe on the-trade-cycle-debt-is-trade
• Noah Smith on michael-linds-mercantilist-critique
• Peter Dorman on the-political-economy-of-central-bank
• Liam Delaney on behavioural-economics-and-public-policy

Brian Banisch (Climate)

• climate-clippings
• climate-change-begins-to-bite
• Michael Roberts on macro-multipliers-and-environment

Andrew Gelman ( Statistics)

• stereotype-threat
• how-to-think-about-a-psychological-science-paper-that-seems-iffy-but-is-not-obviously-flawed
• symposium-magazine
• frontiers-in-massive-data-analysis
• this involves multi-level modelling being the solution
• dont-trust-the-turk
• maybe-new-york-is-different
• economic-policy-does-not-occur-in-a-political-vacuum
• meritocracy-rerun
• Daniel Little on graphing-metadata
• Good Stats Bad Stats on big data and wimbledon
• Tim Harford on popular-perceptions-exposed-by-numbers

Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• conference-and-seminar-papers-from-both-sides-of-the-podium
• lets-put-econ-back-into-microeconometrics

Quirky

• Dianne Coyle on technocracy-vs-democracy
• Noah Smith on how-to-be-nostradumbass
• Frances Woolley on the-invisible-mentor, do-use-wikipedia-as-a-reference

Voxwonk

• fdi-surges-not-all-capital-waves-are-alike
• urbanisation-and-migration-externalities-china
• big-banks-and-macroeconomic-outcomes
• are-private-schools-really-better-not-everybody-and-not-everywhere
• how-limit-ecb-s-omt
• short-time-work-does-it-save-jobs
• new-roads-export-insights-inca-roads
• fundamentals-and-sovereign-risk-emerging-markets