Monday, 3 December 2012

Polls and the Next Election

Just before I start writing read Mumble's thoughts with which I heartedly concur and also let us assume the parties are at 52:48 ( Liberal/Labor).

Now let us take a bit of history.
  • Governments, usually and most particularly 2nd term Governments, usually get a swing to them during the campaign) in the Election. ( think 2004, 2007 elections

  • Opposition leaders usually do very well in their first election but decline after that IF still Opposition Leader.

That means the government could still win the next election.

Surprised? I was to some extent. I was always confident a scare against the ETS would be devastating BEFORE implementation but a yawn after it came in ( just like the GST).

I will be interested if the Government can exploit Abbott's many bouts of hyperbole after all he has a long history in this area.

We will see.

Will the ALP dare to say interest rates will always be lower under them than the Liberals!!

Postscript.

This article is a great read about recent political developments



Later Postscript.

Polls have gone back to around 54-46ish which makes the above academic. The result would be a win for the coalition but the win would be thinner given a swing towards to the Government.