Did Trump attempt to wag the dog

 Yes it is Iran again.

Mark the Graph ( who is required reading ) has a great article on why the war occurred again.

I want to add to that by asserting Trump attempted to wag the dog.

Before he launched an illegal war and no NATO CANNOT participate in an offensive action only a defensive one Trump was in  a a load of trouble :

• Epstein. Trump's action made it appear he was attempting to hide something or a lot of someones
• Inflation His tariff program ( which he clearly has little understanding about) made inflation worse particularly in food and groceries. He favouring of oligopolies and thereby lessening of competition has made this worse.
• Immigration. Latinos in particular are incensed that people who have committed no crimes and are good citizens are being rounded up and sent away.
• Corruption. A  lot of what is going on smells to high heaven. This is only small at present but is  permeating. 
• Unpopularity. He is easily the most unpo;luar president now even eclipsing his first term. 

Now take Trump who is not intelligent but thinks he is and has a low attention span. Venezuela was highly successful and it went to his head. Why not have a small short war against Iran who surrender's early and he gains in the polls.

Even some usual apologists like Laura Ingraham are saying Trump could not understand all the advice he was getting. As I said yesterday Iran are essentially saying no matter what you do to us we can  do things which will hurt the word economy such as reducing oil supplies and other goods  ( like oil refineries in the area) which would guarantee a world recession ( and a massacre in the mid-terms).

It is all looking pear shaped for Trump and unfortunately for the world.

Petrol again

 Well the government has backflipped and reduced oil excise.

Here is an article on it. Just remember is is not funded ie it is adding to the deficit when policy MUST be reducing it so Shane Wright maybe wright ( get it).

Let us get down to tin tacks.

The problem with petrol at the moment is excess demand. Economics tells us this does not occur when the price rises astronomically. It has mainly happened in the regions ( because of cow cockies and miners( but it is also occurring in the cities. Two examples. Demand has increased 25% in some places. Bunnings has sold out of jerry cans!! The government could ban petrol in jerry cans and tanks and should.

By the way have you noticed no-one is criticising aussies for panic buying. It is all a supply problem. Now that is fake news.

I said before I suspect this war will go on for longer than expected. Can you imagine what Iran will do if trump commits a war crime and destroys their energy infrastructure. If it is in Ukraine it must be in Iran and it does not matter if Iran is doing it we are supposed to be the good guys and we do not commit war crimes ( we also do not start a war against international law either). what does Trump think would occur to the oil price if he obliterates Kharg island?

We have a moron in charge who thinks he is a genius who also has the attention span of a cocker spaniel.

A recession is likely

Danger Will Robinson danger, danger 

What you never watched Lost in Space

Iran again

 As each day moves forward it becomes more apparent no-one really thought about strategy. THE USA has limited options.

Trump was warned about the strait of hormuz but either ignored it or didn't understand.

Imagine you are part of Iranian leadership and Israel and the USA has deliberately targeted your leadership and your economy and are saying they will destroy your energy infrastructure ( which would be a war crime). you would hate the USA with a passion. They can't do much more to your country so I would:

• do everything to imperil the world economy the US in particular given Trump's precarious polling position. This is not only the strait of hormuz and the red sea but Arabian infrastructure which would take a lot of time to repair and rebuild.
• facilitate any sort of terrorist operations against US citizens particularly in the USA. Promise the young idealists a life in paradise!!

I am not sure the US military realised how vulnerable they were to asymmetric warfare even though history should have told them all about it. They never lost a battle in south vietnam but still lost the war.

The future is highly uncertain and looks very grim. A recession looks on the cards both internationally and here!

I should add Iranians are not trumpists. They are not idiots. They know the amount of troops being sent to the area is not enough to invade Iran only enough to attack a specific target like where Iranian oil or nuclear materials here. It aint hard to defend against that and dead US soldiers would be a millstone around Trump's neck

Around the Traps 27/3/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Tanya Murphy on when-matter-goes-investigation-what-means-doesnt Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on why-housing-is-primarily-supply-problem , australias-oil-reserve-in-america
• Susan Sawyer on early-wins-for-the-social-media-ban-new-survey-claims-but-the-full-picture-is-far-more-complicated
• Tom McIlroy on superannuation-should-be-used-for-aged-care-not-inherited-by-next-generation-aged-care-ceo-says
• Rob Manwaring on one-nations-surge-and-liberal-partys-collapse-in-sa-election-reveal-tectonic-shifts-in-australian-politics
• Tony Barry on south-australian-election-voters-frustrated-angry-one-nation
• Antony Green on sa2026-some-early-observations-on-the-result
• Bec Strating and Elise Stephenson on security-gap-australia-can-t-afford-ignore
• Rod Sims on australian-gas-companies-massive-profits-paying-minimal-tax
• Hazel Moir on prosecco-makers-lose-out-as-australia-seals-eu-free-trade-deal-after-8-long-years-of-talks
• Taul Harper on our-interest-in-electric-vehicles-has-grown-due-to-oil-price-spikes-and-its-likely-to-remain
• David Vallance on conventional-icbms-could-end-australia-s-geographic-sanctuary
• Christian Downie on fake-news-on-everything-from-whales-to-wind-farms-australia-is-flooded-with-climate-misinformation
• Zareh Ghazarian on one-nation-surge-2-0-this-time-there-are-structural-issues-at-play
• Zhara Shahhoseini on australia-must-brace-for-clusters-of-natural-disasters-not-just-isolated-fires-and-floods
• Greg Jericho on australia-inflation-profit-margins-fuel-crisis-supply-chain-shock
• Shane Wright on let-s-not-adopt-drongo-economics-to-deal-with-high-priced-fuel
• Mark Melatos on compulsory-super-is-higher-than-ever-at-12-but-cutting-it-would-hurt-low-paid-workers-most
• Brent Jackson on eu-australia-fta-plays-long-game-critical-minerals-no-short-cuts

OZ Climate

• from-shuttered-coal-plant-to-gigascale-battery-agl-begins-commissioning-of-liddell-bess
  
• why-some-of-australias-energy-market-conventions-should-go-the-way-of-the-dinosaurs
  
• massive-step-state-inks-deals-to-deliver-more-than-1-gw-of-new-wind-power-ahead-of-mass-coal-exodus
  
• pressure-mounts-to-power-up-energy-efficiency-to-unplug-households-from-global-energy-shocks
  
• green-light-for-network-big-battery-sent-to-regulator-by-interstate-and-long-distance-objectors\
  
• diesel-replacement-australias-billion-dollar-opportunity-to-electrify-cut-global-fossil-ties
  
• how-climate-and-renewables-disinformation-networks-are-fuelling-a-major-national-security-threat
  
• gas-shortage-warnings-pushed-out-again-as-big-battery-boom-and-electrification-take-fresh-bite-from-demand
  
• hormuz-is-a-warning-australias-oil-problem-is-its-electrification-gap
  
• a-slam-dunk-rio-tinto-gets-2-billion-lifeline-to-shift-massive-smelter-from-costly-coal-to-firm-renewables
  
• a-home-battery-case-study-from-little-interest-in-storage-to-bills-that-are-always-in-credit
  
• developer-slams-lengthy-and-unnecessary-legal-battle-as-council-drops-case-against-wind-project
  
• Andrew Blakkers on oil-reserves-last-for-weeks-solar-panels-last-for-decades
• Patrick Commins on australia-generation-alpha-faces-185k-bill-over-lifetime-without-urgent-action-on-climate-crisis-report-finds
• Adam Morton on if-one-nation-wants-to-be-a-serious-political-player-barnaby-joyce-needs-to-get-his-facts-straight-on-the-climate-crisis

Northern America

• Bryan Walsh on iran-strait-hormuz-gas-prices-oil-natural-gas-fertilizer-food
• Kruggers on how-to-burn-less-oil , adventures-in-fantasy-diplomacy , treason-in-the-futures-markets , the-war-on-wind-continues , the-worst-and-the-dumbest
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-is-immigration-bad-for-america
• Mark Stern on alito-supreme-court-trump-voter-fraud-lies
• Peter Werner on trump-maga-conservatism
• renew economy on trumps-latest-bid-to-snuff-out-offshore-wind-pay-firms-not-to-build-it
• noahpinion on there-isnt-always-a-long-arc-of-morality
• the conversable economist on interview-with-erika-mcentarfer-firings-and-federal-statistics , the-growth-of-big-business-1900-2020 , bending-the-curve-of-health-care-costs-at-last
• Rodney Tiffen on trump-is-remaking-the-us-media-in-his-own-image-and-smashing-accountability-with-it
• Eric Levitz on iran-war-trump-george-w-bush-tucker-carlson-rogan
• Jonathan Chait on republican-hawks-israel-iran
• Eliot Cohen on iran-war-reveals-american-weakness
• Isaac Chotiner on how-donald-trump-may-have-sabotaged-his-chances-for-a-deal-with-iran
• home and away on michael-dukakis-had-a-point
• Barno Nouri and Inderjeet Parma on donald-trumps-new-15-point-plan-is-the-biggest-sign-yet-that-washington-fears-it-is-losing-this-war
• David Remnick on the-first-casualty-of-trumps-war-in-iran-was-the-truth
• Alex Tabarrok on social-security-should-be-a-forced-savings-program-not-a-welfare-program
• Carol Leonnig on jack-smith-trump-classified-documents-financial-motive

Europe

• Guy Hedgcoe on multiple factors caused  2025 blackout in spain and portugal
• Lisa Martin on denmark-votes-amid-smouldering-us-alliance
• Menzie Chinn on the-ecb-and-its-watchers-xxvi
• Jonathan Lemire and Simon Schuster on nato-iran-war-trump-russia

Asia

• Mathew Powell on why-iran-is-attacking-gulf-energy-infrastructure
• Ian Werely on the-west-has-long-characterized-irans-oil-as-a-prize-to-be-claimed
• Natalie Klein on how-the-law-of-naval-warfare-applies-to-the-strait-of-hormuz
• noahpinion on china-is-quietly-looking-weaker
• Patrick Wintour on ran-war-conflict-middle-east-trump-israel
• Rodger Shanahan on trump-and-netanyahu-have-formed-a-convenient-coalition-behind-it-are-clear-divisions
• Vincent Durac on how-active-have-irans-proxy-groups-been-since-the-start-of-the-war
• Henry Storey on india-s-cautious-embrace-trade
• Jessica Genauer on iran-cant-win-this-war-but-it-can-force-a-us-retreat-using-these-4-insurgency-tactics
• Marianne Hanson on israel-wants-to-destroy-irans-nuclear-program-but-should-it-have-nuclear-weapons-itself
• Jason Reifler on iran-war-lacks-strategy-goals-legitimacy-and-support-in-the-us-and-around-the-world
• Iain Boyd on how-far-can-irans-ballistic-missiles-reach-a-defense-expert-explains-how-the-missiles-work-and-what-iran-can-and-cant-hit
• Neve Gordon on the-gaza-doctrine-iran-lebanon
• Ian Philbrick on iran-war-donald-trump-news-israel
• Oren Ziv and Ariele Caine on investigation-settlers-expand-area Thanks Elie

Wonk

• the unpopulist on marco-rubio-gets-western-civilizations-defining-features-all -wrong Thanks Nick
• lament for nations on fukuyamas-schmitt-posting Thanks Nick
• the fitzstack on the-manosphere-as-a-monument-to-progressive-cultural-power Thanks Nick
• ACD on most-work-is-translation Thanks Nick
• for a new democracy on whos-afraid-of-citizens-assemblies Thanks Nick
• persuasion on how-trans-activism-became-so-radical Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on energy-costs-are-rising
• Tina Hunter on why-middle-east-gas-field-attacks-could-send-energy-prices-soaring
• Lauren Hall et al on fines-alone-wont-stop-big-tech-behaving-badly-heres-what-might-work
• Mathew Burkholder on evangelical-holy-war-why-some-christians-think-trump-will-end-the-world
• Eric Sand on strategy in the new missile age  Thanks Tyler
• Brad De Long on crosspost-paul-ford-the-ai-disruption-we-have-been-waitimg-for-has-arrived
• Laura Panza on this-is-how-the-1970s-oil-shock-played-out-there-are-lessons-for-the-economy-today
• Jane Kelsey on a-crucial-meeting-aims-to-remake-the-wto-to-fit-the-new-global-order
• Nancy Yousef and Missy Ryan on iran-us-asymmetrical-war
• Adam Hanieh on bottling-the-world-economy-hormuz-gulf
• Sanchari Ghosh on quad-s-coherence-problem
• Chris Dillow on on-advertising-bias
• Rob Nicholls on meta-and-google-just-lost-a-landmark-social-media-addiction-case-a-tech-law-expert-explains-the-fallout
• noahpinion on the-economic-consequences-of-the-iran-war , ai-has-the-worst-sales-pitch-ive-seen
• the conversable economist on when-keynes-did-not-win-the-nobel-peace-prize
• Yogi Febriandi on harnessing-islamic-philanthropy-save-lives-andaman-sea
• Menzie Chinn on geopolitics-becoming-key-risk-for-central-banks-panel

General

• Darius Sepehri on what-is-nowruz-the-iranian-new-year
• Dan Rockmore on in-defense-of-algebra-paul-lockhart

Climate

• John Cook et al on do-middle-earth-and-westeros-make-sense-climate-scientists-modelled-them-to-find-out
• ocean acidification on ocean-acidification-disrupts-the-biomineralization-process-in-the-oyster-crassostrea-virginica-via-intracellular-calcium-signaling-dysregulation-2 , co2-rise-modulates-the-physiological-performance-of-the-diatoms-thalassiosira-pseudonana-and-thalassiosira-weissflogii-to-light-challenge
• Andrew King on the-latest-world-climate-report-is-grim-but-its-not-the-end-of-the-story
• skeptical science on blue-ca-red-texas-green-power , fact-brief-windsyndrome , new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• nutpie-state-of-the-art-mass-matrix-adaptation-for-hmc
  
• claimed-100-sensitivity-and-specificity-in-differentiating-autistic-individuals-from-typically-developing-controls-using-retinal-photographs-yeah-right
  
• space-mirrors-awesome-solution-to-our-energy-problems-or-ridiculous-public-relations-stunt
  
• how-earthquake-safe-are-vancouver-condos
  
• false-claims-in-a-published-no-corrections-no-consequences-welcome-to-the-business-school
  
• survey-statistics-individualism-and-the-cv-noise-problem
  
• notation-corner-when-you-have-several-different-expressions-that-are-mathematically-equivalent-you-dont-have-to-choose-just-one
  
• what-major-works-of-literature-were-written-after-age-of-85-75-65
  
• considering-some-anti-bayesian-arguments-in-the-context-of-fda-draft-guidance-for-the-use-of-bayesian-methods-in-clinical-trials
  
• frank-harrell-on-why-and-how-to-do-bayes-for-clinical-trials-and-the-recent-fda-draft-guidelines
  
• maybe-one-of-the-remaining-72-dolphins-will-read-this-one
  
• statschat on cars-vs-public-transport , as-and-when-it-looks-supportive
• Kaiser Fung on guide-to-using-pairs-of-circles
• freakometrics on a scalable toolbox for exposing indirect discrimination in insurance rates

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tim Harford on the-link-between-material-and-moral-flourishing-is-real
• open mind on project-hail-mary
• stoat on book-review-case-against-education

vox wonk

• cbdc-neutrality-bank-liquidity-and-hybrid-nature-bank-deposits 
  
• beyond-cost-cutting-how-foundational-process-innovations-drive-sustained-growth 
  
• ageing-china-chinas-pension-reform-debate-enters-new-phase 
  
• our-underappreciated-international-reserve-system 
  
• business-investment-era-digital-transformation
  
• economic-consequences-low-skilled-immigration-sudden-stop-evidence-koreas-guest
  
• dollarisation-waves-insights-bis-international-bond-database
  
• subsidising-supply-chain-how-chinas-industrial-policy-shapes-export-competitiveness 
  
• remote-work-can-blunt-fertility-decline
  
• rise-and-fall-eu-labour-shortages-recent-developments-and-some-forward-looking 
  
• how-interest-rates-affect-spending-household-debt-and-role-asset-prices  
  
• preparing-new-g20-alignment
  

Inflation

 the ABS released our monthly inflation rate. There was both good and bad news. The bad news was inflation barely budged at an annual rate. the good news is that for the second month inflation annualised was running within the RBAs target.

The other bad news was Trump's fooly of declaring war on Iran. This has raised the price of petrol. Because  it is ubiquitous it is like the GST being being raised. I think we can safely say the next CPI will show inflation above 4% and it rising to above 5% this year.

For history read THIS.

A supply side shock like this will cause a recession and the RBA reaction almost guarantees this. Rates wil almost certainly be raised in May and perhaps again after that.

This year is going to be tough!

Gerard Henderson watch

 Since the failure of catallaxy I have had no-one to examine like I could with Sinclair Davidsons absurdums.

However starting today I wil levery so often look at what Gerard Henderson is saying. It is almost always about the ABC.

For those who do not know of him he was the man who coined the Industrial relations club expression. This view has been controversial however I am sympathetic to the view. Henderson became Howard's chief of staff. He later essentially remade the Sydney Institute.

He recently made comments about Peter Hartcher on Insiders. He was quite critical that Hartcher said the vietnam war and the US invasion of Iraq were illegal just like the war on Iran. My guess is Hendo is saying the Gulf of Tonkin incident was fair dinkum, Most people believe it was made up making the war illegal.

Bush attempted to go through the UN in his desire to invade Iraq however he gave up. The USA invaded Iraq when it was under no threat from Iraq and it had no weapons that could pose a threat ( you know the alleged weapons of mass destruction. Few people believed the war had any legality.

I have yet to see any argument that the war with Iran has any legality at all.

Our Gerry doesn't like Grace Tame. He claimed the expression globalise the intifada is an expression of violence if not of murdering jews. He talks of jews being killed in both intifadas. No mention of palestinians being killed however even though their number far outweighed those of Israelis. No mention of the causes of the intifadas one or two.

Gerry does not elaborate on exactly how jews in australia could be killed. Indeed he does not elaborate on how an intifada could exist here.

I should add in ending he hates interviews at the ABC he claims  be soft yet quite easily the softest interview I have ever seen ( if you can call it an interview) was when Sharri Markson interviewed the Israeli PM who still is an indicted war criminal. our Gerry was mute.

what is happening in the middle east

 Clearly when Trump declared an illegal war on Iran he had no idea of what could occur in the strait of hormuz despite being told!

Trump wildy said he would obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure if tankers were not allowed to pass through.  See HERE for example.Trump really has no idea of the hurt Iran wants to do to the USA through the restrictions on oil and the rest. He and Israel has decimated the ruling structure of Iran thus why would they want to accommodate him?

Iran knows the political weakness Trump has regarding petrol prices thus their concentration on asymmetric warfare.

We also know that Trump lies like there is no tomorrow so I do not believe there is any talking between Iran and the USA. Trump now has time to come up with a reason to declare victory and get out. I should add Tr0mmp loves his own voice and has no self awareness and thus does not realise how incoherent he is and he believes his own lies. A terrible combination.

Iran scents blood and wants revenge a lot of revenge. Can Trump avert this. I doubt it.

If you vote a moron into office then you have to face the consequences !!

Oz Stuff

 SA

Well the ALP romped home see also Tony Barry  but it was a bad result.unless the ALP self-destruct there cannot be a change of government at the nest election. This is bad for democracy! The Liberals were decimated by one nation who actually had the second highest amount of votes.If one nation are consistent at one thing it is self destruction which seems always to happen after they get people elected to parliament. Why? I suspect part of the explanation is they do not want to be told to do things by something who is extremely stupid!

I think the main story is the biggest thing going for the the ALP is one nation taking part of the LNP vote hence i think they will start targeting them. This will be hard because they have few policies and you cannot simply say they are racist.

Petrol

Same old same old. People are panicking mainly the cow cockies and miners and then complain about supply. I suspect this problem will be around for some time simply because Trump has no idea about it. He di not understand this would occur despite being told about the dangers and has no idea of how to solve it.

Albo needs to make some phone calls where he says if you give us no petrol we won't give you any resources!

Victoria

One nation might allow the ALP to continue to govern after their election in november. This would be a travesty. Victoria desperately needs a change of government. It would be terrible if one nation stopped this. It could be worse if they were involved in government!

Weather Report

 Weather Report was a jazz rock band and pretty good.

Around the Traps 20/3/26

It is time for Around the Traps again.   This has been compromised by something that occurred on my computer!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• kvetch on was-white-australia-an-aberration thanks nick
• Mark the Graph on australias-fuel-reserves
• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-polling
• Kieran Hardy and Rebecca Wickes on we-cant-coerce-our-way-to-social-cohesion-heres-what-else-governments-should-be-doing
• John Quiggin on what-does-labor-stand-for-itself
• Antony Green on do-greens-voters-follow-how-to-votes
• John Hawkins on rba-narrowly-votes-to-lift-interest-rates-the-middle-east-war-may-determine-if-theres-more-to-come
• Robert Finkeldey on new-study-shows-global-democracy-hasnt-been-this-bad-since-1978-australia-should-be-worried
• Mark Beeson on australias-strategic-infantilisation-by-the-us-is-undermining-our-security-in-asia
• Nicki Hutley on rba-interest-rate-hike-australia-inflation-economy
• Daniel Flitton on trump-says-america-needs-no-one-s-help-australia-included
• Greg Jericho on australian-government-gas-industry-iran-war-fuel-crisis
• Hussein Dia on electric-vehicles-what-to-know-if-youre-considering-an-ev
• Kurt Sengul and Jordan McSwiney on what-does-one-nation-actually-believe-in
• Warwick Smith on is-the-capital-gains-tax-discount-an-act-of-intergenerational-bastardry
• Brent Jackson on australia-s-fuel-crisis-we-told-you-so

OZ climate

• brilliant-economics-offtake-deal-seals-delivery-of-australias-biggest-solar-battery-hybrid-project
  
• graph-of-the-day-batteries-overtake-gas-in-morning-peaks-in-australias-most-advanced-renewable-grid
  
• rise-of-the-big-orange-blob-australias-biggest-batteries-change-the-game-in-its-largest-isolated-grid
  
• fresh-blow-to-queensland-renewables-as-china-giant-scraps-plan-for-big-battery-called-in-by-state-lnp
  
• want-a-transition-with-less-transmission-and-cheaper-bills-new-report-says-offshore-wind-the-best-bet
  
• nsw-finesses-plan-to-boost-solar-battery-hybrids-as-it-prepares-massive-new-tenders-to-replace-coal
  
• australia-needs-to-kick-its-diesel-habit-and-a-timetable-to-electrify-machines-that-run-on-imported-oil
  
• how-australias-most-populous-state-can-quit-household-gas-while-also-cutting-electricity-demand
  
• home-battery-rebate-changes-could-mean-price-difference-of-thousands-of-dollars-regulator-warns 
  
• how-australias-most-populous-state-can-quit-household-gas-while-also-cutting-electricity-demand
  
• australia-needs-to-kick-its-diesel-habit-and-a-timetable-to-electrify-machines-that-run-on-imported-oil
  
• aemo-is-a-product-of-the-90s-its-governance-needs-to-reflect-the-world-were-in-now
  
• reversion-to-the-mean-corporate-ppa-market-cools-but-still-packs-a-punch
  
• more-wind-and-batteries-raise-hopes-for-electricity-bill-cuts-but-fossil-fuel-woes-could-still-bite
  
• what-fossil-madness-is-this-wars-cant-interrupt-flow-of-wind-and-the-sun-but-all-we-hear-is-drill-baby-drill
  
• Saman Gorgi on remote-communities-are-more-vulnerable-to-fuel-price-shocks-could-microgrids-help

Northern America

• David Smith on why-donald-trump-is-losing-the-war-at-home
• Kruggers on costs-and-benefits-from-the-new-energy , no-america-is-not-respected , is-it-time-to-drive-55-again
• Dahlia Lithwick on lie-trump-birthright-citizenship-supreme-court-case
• Brad De Long on crosspost-horace-dediu-the-most-brilliant-in-corporate-history
• Zack Beauchamp on joe-kent-iran-war-resign-trump-antisemitism
• Christopher Ingraham on democracy-trump-russia-putin-dictator-report
• Thomas Wright on iran-victory-trump 
• the conversable economist on the-us-postal-service-hits-its-debt-ceiling
• Kruggers on donald-trump-petropresident , a-whiff-of-stagflation
• new deal democrat on the-impact-of-the-iran-war-oil-price-spike-on-stagflation
• Anne Applebaum on trump-iran-war-allies
• Pegah Banihashemi and Paul Poast on why-iran-regime-wont-surrender
• Christina Cauterucci on cesar-chavez-dolores-huerta-sexual-abuse-allegations-2026
• Franklin Foer on trump-iran-democracy-protest

Europe

• Ben Seymour and Eszter Simon on why-the-next-escalation-in-the-iran-conflict-could-be-between-the-us-and-turkey
• Joshua Keating on iran-war-oil-russia-ukraine-putin
• Doug Muir on imperia-a-european-culture-story-part-3-and-last
• Chris Dillow on housing-costs-now-vs-1939

Asia

• Sanam Mahoozi on iran-and-the-arabian-peninsula-depend-on-desalination-plants-to-survive-why-water-has-become-a-target
• renew economy on no-wind-farms-in-china-trump-claim-torched-by-record-year-of-new-wind-capacity-mostly-in-china
• Feraz Ockali and Yelena Biberman on other-war-world-ignoring
• Saqlain Rizve on bengali-identity-changing-across-india-bangladesh
• James Dwyer on is-israel-running-low-on-missile-interceptors-how-long-can-it-withstand-irans-retaliatory-attacks
• Hassan Golipour and Mohammad Farzenargen on real-estate-powered-dubais-rise-as-a-magnet-for-expats-can-its-brand-survive-this-war
• Henry Storey on behind-japan-s-us-investment-pledge-china-problem
• Amin Saikal on as-the-war-drags-on-what-does-victory-look-like-for-the-us-israel-and-iran
• Amir Arian on of-fire-and-rain-iran-war
• Orly Noy on longing-for-my-tehran-iran-war
• Ruth Margalit on israels-gulf-state-gamble-in-the-iran-war
• Sudarsan Raghavan on the-limits-of-irans-proxy-empire
• Mohd Yunus on the-interpreter/southeast-asia-paying-environmental-price-rare-earth-boom
• Robert Walker on beware-long-reach-iran-war-asia-s-food-systems
• Patrick Wintour on ignorance-misunderstanding-obfuscation-iran-nuclear-talks-trump
• home and away on the-strait-of-hormuz-it-must-be-open-for-all-or-closed-for-all
• Mariam Farida on as-israel-invades-again-lebanon-faces-more-turmoil-and-possible-civil-war-here-are-3-ways-this-could-go
• Jing Ge on japan-s-bid-build-de-chinafied-rare-earth-supply-system-australia-brazil-board

Wonk

• riggery pokery on theyre-taking-the-peace Thanks Nick
• Quay Ma on design-is-the-new-political-economy thanks nick
• Craig Newman et al on citizens in democratic countries have more benevolent traits less malevolent traits  and greater well being  Thanks Nick
• Uri Gal on tech-companies-are-blaming-massive-layoffs-on-ai-whats-really-going-on
• Zachary Aman on oil-petrol-gasoline-a-chemical-engineer-explains-how-crude-turns-into-fuel
• noahpinion on the-future-isnt-what-it-used-to-be , the-revenge-of-macroeconomics , save-us-digital-cronkite
• Marcus Colla on mirror-future
• Uri Gai on tech-companies-are-blaming-massive-layoffs-on-ai-whats-really-going-on
• Lyndsey Collins-Praino on largest-ever-parkinsons-study-shows-how-symptoms-differ-between-men-and-women
• the conversable economist on the-wealth-of-nations-whats-it-all-about , snapshots-of-cross-border-financial-centers
• Brad De Long on rashomon-ai-fear-hype-and-platform-power
• Shannon Bosch on attacks-on-hospitals-are-surging-in-war-zones-what-do-the-laws-of-war-say-about-protecting-them
• James Quach on a-world-first-quantum-battery-charges-faster-when-it-gets-bigger-but-its-tiny-and-only-lasts-nanoseconds
• Gockay Balci and Ebru Surucu-Balci on from-the-strait-of-hormuz-to-malacca-global-trade-relies-almost-entirely-on-these-five-narrow-waterways
• Mark the Graph on the-most-dangerous-scenario-and-why-it-explains-this-war
• Tyler Cowen on who-profits-from-prediction-markets , some-simple-economics-of-ai
• Miah Hammond-Errey on when-war-reaches-cloud-ai-becomes-target
• understanding AI on software-didnt-eat-the-world Thanks Brad
• Mathew Burkholder on evangelical-holy-war-why-some-christians-think-trump-will-end-the-world
• Christopher Watterson on nuclear-ban-treaty-isn-t-winning-over-states-matter

General

• Tim Harford on ping-the-whatsapps-that-should-have-been-an-email

Climate

• skeptical science on iran-war-cost-of-fossil-fuel-economy ,do-middle-earth-and-westeros-make-sense , new_research
• open mind on the-does-climate-working-group
• Bill McKibben on the-iran-war-is-another-reason-to-quit-oil
• ocean acidification on contrasting-effects-of-river-and-erosion-derived-inputs-on-arctic-ocean-acidification , influence-of-ocean-warming-and-acidification-on-juveniles-of-the-true-giant-clam-tridacna-gigas-and-its-microalgal-symbionts
• real climate on the-puzzling-pleistocene

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-effect-of-high-tech-statistical-analysis-on-the-p-values-of-top-researchers
  
• the-paradox-of-derivatives-and-integrals
  
• its-speciation-time
  
• which-means-that-im-qualified-to-write-books-on-the-topic-and-go-on-npr-regularly-and-give-ted-talks-and-advise-the-government-but-thats-about-it
  
• more-reasons-to-hate-on-prediction-markets
  
• fascist-academics-today-and-communist-academics-in-the-1930s-1950s
  
• survey-statistics-individualism-doesnt-work-even-when-weighted
  
• i-disagree-with-the-wikipedia-definition-of-bayesian-statistics-the-merriam-webster-definition-is-much-better
  
• a-data-model-is-not-just-a-likelihood
  
• the conversable economist on statgpt-the-dangers-of-asking-ai-about-statistics
• freakometrics on decomposing probabilistic scores
• Kaiser Fung on getting-metrics-right-is-half-the-battle
• statschat on trashed

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Gaby Hinscliff on power-to-the-people Thanks Nick
• econjeff on book-great-oom-improbable-birth-of-yoga
• James Ley et al on 5-books-to-help-you-understand-iran-recommended-by-experts
• Tyler Cowen on recession

Vox wonk

• carbon-pricing-and-inequality-understanding-distributional-costs-climate-policy 
  
• outside-how-international-manager-rotations-narrow-gender-pay-gap-and-change-cultural 
  
• how-rising-bank-lending-non-bank-financial-institutions-reallocates-credit-away-firms 
  
• safe-until-crisis-what-300-years-wars-reveal-about-government-debt-safety 
  
• europe-2050-geometries-peace-power-and-prosperity 
  
• prize-kill-management-lessons-german-air-force-wwii
  
• measuring-national-technological-trajectories-using-200-years-international-patent 
  
• causal-evidence-cost-living-shocks-how-energy-crisis-affected-energy-demand-labour 
  
• decentralisation-money-contracts-and-finance-using-blockchain
  
• forward-looking-labour-supply-lessons-polands-pension-reform
  
• tall-buildings-lead-more-compact-and-productive-cities
  
• too-fast-adjust-adoption-speed-and-permanent-cost-ai-transitions
  

The RBA and other things

 RBA

The RBA increased interest rates. I only thought the question was would it be 25 or 50 points. I cannot believe 4 people voted to keep rates on hold. The trimmed mean is well above the target rate. It has to come down.Our economic speed limit is much lower these days so GDP has to slow. Now i would prefer the SGC temoraliy be increased rather than increase interest rates as it hit immediately and is much more equitable but that aint possible.

Budget

We have been told a few things but it is clear spending has to be cut and some taxes need to rise and others cut. The NDIS needs to get back to basics until we can afford it. The government also needs to figure out how it can facilitate productivity.

Petrol

Yeah I talked about this on monday but it is stil lthe case we have plenty of supply. what is the problem is excessive demand in otherwise panic buying. It is the cow cockies and miners who are at fault. They admit they are installing more petrol/diesel but deny panic buying. The figures say otherwise.

Queensland

up there you are not allowed to say rivers to the sea or globalise the intifada. This is a disgrace. If this occurs in NSW I am changing the  name of this blog!

Matildas

They are in the final of the Asian cup and are playing Japan. I doubt they will win ( but I hope they do) but can we just admit female football simply lacks the skill we observe in real football. the ball control, the change of direction, the magic ball through the defence etc is simply not there.

Intifada

Let us get one thing straight. The bonda massacre was horrific and done by evil people. However it was done by people who supported and were inspired by ISIS. ISIA has no sympathy whatsoever for Palestinians. They are either christians or shia muslims. They hate both.  People who assert chants about the intifada are associated with the bondi massacre are peddling either ignorance of the highest order or lies to conflate the massacre with the  what is occurring in Gaza and the West Bank. 
Either way it is evil.

no-one can trust Trump

 Donald Trump launched an illegal war on Iran ( Gerard Henderson please note). He was warned about the strait of homuz but either ignored, did not understand or forgot it because of his cognitive decline.

The chickens have come back to roost. He needs help because Iran can stop tankers leaving the strait of hormuz. He threatens his nato allies if they do not help. The German chancellor was right on two fronts. This is his war and NATO is a DEFENSIVE treaty. It cannot be invoked for an offensive action. Trump is not impressed with us either. He wants Australia to help him out as well.

Let us just have a think how Trump treats allies. He  imposed illegal tariffs on them, He said he wanted to take Greenland, He is supporting neo-nazi parties in  Europe as well as authoritarians in hungary and slovakia, he gets rid of sanctions on russia and of course he clearly favours russia in their invasion of ukraine. Just remember the existential threat to europe is russia not iran and Trump is making that worse not better.

Thus europe cannot depend on the USA whilst trump is in office and nor can we. Mark Beeson writes on this related matter.

Trump is a transactional man. He will do something for you if you do something for him. Treaties mean nothing to him nor do allies. An intelligent man would realise all his mistakes thus far and change.Alas Trump is not an intelligent  man and worse is in patent cognitive decline.

Russia and Putin are the big winners from this debacle and the world is not a safer place.

Just for Trump.

Excursion  and Incursion. Trump is clearly confused about both. This shows how stupid he is and he cognitive decline.

I should also add another example of Trump's lying. He claimed an ex-president agreed with is action. Only problem all living ex-presidents have denied talking to him.

OZ stuff

 It aint city slickers that are panicking

I have to admit I thought it were us city slickers buying up gerry cans and filling them with petrol that was causing demand for petrol to be astronomical. It aint. It is the farmers and miners who are doing it and then of course complaining about a lack of petrol. Farmers are saying they are merely stocking up. No. If that was occurring demand would not be strongly up ( which is very strange given the rise in prices). The government cannot tell the truth because we also know farmers are the salt of the earth and cannot be criticised.

RBA

The RBA will increase rates today. The only question is will it be 25 or 50 points. I suspect 25 points because surely the 'Iran war' cannot last. ( I am do not call me shirley again. flying high joke).

Definitions mean something

All those people who are part of the jewish lobby who argued for a stupid definition of anti-semitism (which included criticism of the Israeli government) are now arguing against a definition of islamophobia where they would find it hard to criticise islam or their version of it. no self awareness and no sense of irony.

Is Trump a Russian agent and other things US

 We know Trump is not very intelligent (euphemism) but no-one could understand why he is so 'sympathetic' of Putin's  positions. We can all recall his answer to Jonathan Lemaire where he trusted Putin over his own security advice on what russia did during the 2016. The senate produced an unanimous voluminous report which showed this chaired by none other than Marco Rubio.

We  also know Trump selects people on loyalty and how they look on TV over competence however what are we to make of the complete lack of strategy on declaring war ( illegally) on Iran. Any bozo knows Iran would ensure few tankers would go through. They only have to threaten for insurance to dissolve yet no-one though of this. They now are pleading for help from other countries. This is war 101 yet Trump and Hesgeth were sop incompetent they did not think of this. what does Trump do withdraw the sanctions on russian oil and of course the oil price which Russia is consumed by rises dramatically.  how can you declare war on a country and then rely on maps that are 10 years out od date!

If only Trump could think he would have gotten Western 'allies' on board and slowly increased oil reserves and planned for Iranian 'control ' of the strait of hormuz.

Russia has also assisted Iran in their use of drones and missiles through their intelligence. Yet again Trump trusts Putin and not his own intelligence services!

What trump doesn't seem to understand is they want to completely destroy their nuclear industry and control the strait of hormuz then ground troops will be needed!

While we are on this can  someone explain to Trump the difference between an excursion and an incursion as he clearly has no idea.

Only a complete moron would blame the country invaded for a war they ncver wanted. Only a compromised person would give preference to a country they are at war with over a country trying to help overcoming Iran's drones.

The DOJ has lost about 8,000 people the FBI has also lost a lot of people  so their intelligence against terrorism is very limited. That is what occurs when you ignore competence.

Noem has gone a truly incompetent pick but a bimbo nevertheless. This is bad for Bondi who has no cover now.

I might close this by merely stating When Trump won last time ( 2016) more by luck ( or should I say comey) and had complete authority. The people soon changed that at the midterms given how chaotic Trump was. He is even worse this time probably due to his cognitive deterioration.

It is very deepressing

poco

 

Around the Traps 13/3/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on the-australian-economy-q4-2025 , austraias-savings-problem-and-the-current-account-deficit
• John Blaxland on australia-cant-easily-reduce-its-military-dependence-on-the-us-but-with-canada-we-can-mitigate-risk
• Hangga Fathana on australia-s-iran-reflex-credibility-test-southeast-asia
• Peter Draper and Nathan Gray on as-global-trade-rules-falter-how-can-australia-protect-itself-from-economic-coercion
• Hugh White on aukus-is-binding-australia-to-a-dangerous-unpredictable-leader-we-need-a-plan-b-now
• Locky Liu et al on amid-a-surge-in-energy-prices-a-windfall-tax-on-gas-profits-could-be-the-best-way-to-protect-households
• Catherine Ordway and Lelia Khanjanineejad on australia-has-granted-some-iranian-soccer-players-asylum-but-2-questions-remain
• Mick Ryan on formula-one-lessons-australian-defence-force
• Christopher Wright on coal-australia-canada-s-next-middle-power-energy-play
• Antony Green on where-are-they-now-the-fate-of-seats-held-by-former-liberal-leaders
• Greg Jericho on labor-government-house-prices-capital-gains-tax-negative-gearing-budget
• Patrick Commins on capital-gains-tax-discount-overwhelmingly-benefits-investors-in-australias-richest-electorates-analysis-shows
• Tom McIlroy on canavan-might-help-the-nationals-hold-off-one-nation-but-the-coalitions-fight-against-labor-just-got-much-harder
• Keiran Hardy and Rebecca Wickers on we-cant-coerce-our-way-to-social-cohesion-heres-what-else-governments-should-be-doing
• Vincent So on nuclear-power-australia-s-missing-sovereign-capability

OZ Climate

• how-australia-can-avoid-the-economic-fallout-of-trumps-war-in-the-middle-east
  
• solar-farms-hit-by-cuts-to-grid-output-ratings-due-to-changes-in-energy-flows-but-some-big-batteries-are-happy
  
• snail-trails-and-uncertainty-australias-emissions-are-not-falling-fast-enough
  
• fortescue-forges-ahead-on-pilbara-real-zero-plan-with-construction-of-states-biggest-solar-farm
  
• new-modelling-shows-renewable-electricity-can-meet-nz-future-demand-without-importing-gas
  
• co-ownership-vs-consultation-landmark-report-proposes-faster-cheaper-paths-to-renewables
  
• nsw-planning-minister-shuts-down-legal-challenge-for-three-wind-projects-sent-to-ipc
  
• queenslands-prepare-and-repair-disaster-economy-brought-to-you-by-coal-and-climate-change
  
• co-ownership-vs-consultation-landmark-report-proposes-faster-cheaper-paths-to-renewables
  
• electricity-bills-to-fall-in-state-where-renewables-make-up-nearly-half-of-generation-mix
  
• bowen-allows-dirty-fuel-into-market-to-address-petrol-bowser-shortfalls-and-concerns-of-record-high-prices
  
• why-does-an-energy-superpower-like-australia-still-depend-on-global-fossil-fuels
  
• Adam Morton on if-there-was-ever-a-moment-for-australias-shift-to-renewables-and-evs-this-is-it , australian-governments-subsidising-fossil-fuel-use-by-more-than-30000-a-minute-analysis-finds

Northern America

• Ian Philbrick on february-jobs-report-trump-economy
• noahpinion on something-feels-weird-about-this-economy , san-franciscos-urban-revival-is-in-danger
• the conversable economist on the-us-demographic-transition-expected-and-unexpected-effects , the-marketplace-exchanges-for-health-insurance , canadas-economic-challenges
• Adam Serwer on cynical-gullible-american-man
• Jeffrey Goldberg on signalgate-consequences-national-security
• Jonathan Blitzer on kristi-noems-fireable-offenses
• Robin Wright on where-is-the-iran-war-headed
• new deal democrat on how-4-gallon-gas-could-take-the-economy-from-a-nearly-complete-stall-into-outright-recession , the-gold-standard-qcew-for-last-q3-strongly-suggests-no-job-growth-whatsoever-in-2025
• Fred Kaplan on iran-trump-war-school-bombing-missile-strike-tomahawk
• Kruggers on the-plot-against-intelligence-human-and-artificial , the-billionaires-war
• Jeet Heer on trump-iran-religious-war-crusades
• Drezners world on im-sick-and-tired-of-all-the-winning Thanks Brad
• Jeff McCausland on pete-hegseth-iran-war-video-game-movies
• Jonathan Lemiere on trump-iran-gas-prices-economy
• David Cole on the-lie-of-preventive-war
• Ruby Cramer on shot-by-border-patrol-then-called-a-domestic-terrorist
• Richard Haas on epic-folly
• Zack Beauchamp on iran-war-white-house-video-game-propaganda

Europe

• Waleed Shahid on the-socialist-mayors-of-madrid-and-barcelona
• Mark Edele on russia-wanted-a-new-world-order-this-wasnt-the-one-it-had-in-mind
• James Horncastle on how-the-u-s-israel-attack-on-iran-helps-russia-in-its-war-against-ukraine
• Chris Dillow on wanted-a-new-blair

Asia

• Jennifer Parker on the-us-sank-an-iranian-warship-and-didnt-rescue-the-survivors-is-this-legal-in-war 
• Amin Naeni on irans-regime-has-shut-down-the-internet-in-the-middle-of-war-placing-civilians-in-the-crosshairs
• Gabriela Bernal on north-korea-s-nuclear-ambitions-are-here-stay
• Mehmet Ozalp on who-is-mojtaba-khamenei-irans-presumed-next-supreme-leader-and-would-he-bring-change-or-more-brutal-suppression
• Mathew Powell on iran-conflict-air-campaigns-rarely-work-as-intended-they-often-make-matters-worse
• Joshua Keating on kurds-iran-trump-komala
• Nischal Dhungel on china-s-surplus-western-rules-are-strangling-asian-industry
• Nory Ly on cambodia-s-blue-economy-problem
• Farah Jan on iraq-wars-aftermath-was-a-disaster-for-the-us-the-iran-war-is-headed-in-the-same-direction
• Mika  Pasco and Ji-In Baek on closest-comrade-bromance-underpinning-north-korea-s-alliance-russia
• Sara Herschander on help-iran-war-humanitarian-aid
• Arang Keshavarzarian on iran-transformed
• Isaac Chotiner on how-donald-trumps-iran-war-is-destabilizing-the-gulf

Wonk

• ruxandras substack on equality-as-a-consolation-prize Thanks Nick
• Oliver Hartwich on the-temptations-of-unfreedom-revisited Thanks Nick 
• fresh economic thinking on finding-the-money Thanks Nick
• conspicuous cognition on how-ai-will-reshape-public-opinion Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on bored-of-peace-war-and-economics
• Andrew Gawthorpe on how-prepared-are-the-us-and-its-allies-for-a-protracted-conflict-in-iran
• Tim Harford on the-tyranny-of-targets
• Kruggers on oil-crises-past-and-possibly-future , dire-strait
• Martie-Louise Verreynne on andrew-leigh-maps-the-drivers-of-historys-big-breakthroughs-and-why-they-still-matter
• Brad De Long on the-permanent-problem-of-the-human-race
• Hernon Rocha on could-the-us-cut-off-trade-with-spain-heres-what-international-law-says
• Pjotr Sauer on how-the-us-israeli-war-in-iran-parallels-russia-invasion-of-ukraine
• Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian on too-valuable-to-burn-chemical-and-plastic-industries-will-rely-on-oil-far-longer-than-motorists
• Alexander Howard on the-iranian-revolution-transformed-global-extremism-replacing-left-wing-radicalism-with-religion
• Tyler Cowen on how-frequent-are-price-bubbles
• noahpinion on are-we-in-the-foothills-of-world-war-3
• the conversable economist on who-is-buying-all-the-global-debt

General

• Kevin Kelly on how-will-the-miracle-happen-today Thanks Nick
• Erik Meijaard et al on meet-tous-an-entirely-new-genus-of-mammal-we-identified-heres-why-its-so-exciting

Climate

• ocean acidification on glacial-meltwater-impacts-marine-carbonate-chemistry-on-icelands-continental-shelf , the-ocean-as-system
• open mind on global-warming-has-accelerated , cold-winter-hot-winter
• Umair Irfan on ocean-marine-climate-co2-carbon-removal-acidification
• Gabriel Da Silva on what-is-the-acid-rain-in-the-wake-of-us-bombings-in-iran-an-atmospheric-scientist-explains
• real climate on how-robust-is-our-accelerometer
• Jonathan Watts on extreme-heat-study-global-warming-physical-activity
• moyhu on february-global-surface-templs-up-015
• skeptical science on fact-brief-windshadow , new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• bayesian-inferences-and-frequentist-evaluations
  
• authors-of-the-class-lorrie-moore
  
• alienzzzz
  
• cmu-finally-shows-up-in-epstein-files
  
• ted-williams-and-me
  
• sparsenuts-precondition-hierarchical-hmc-sparse-laplace
  
• court-ruling-appropriately-applies-our-research
  
• freakometrics on the narrative CV or how to replace one bias with another
• Kaiser Fung on another-test-of-self-sufficiency , the-emerging-ai-agents-war

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Andrew Gelman on the-idea-of-israel-more-generally-the-idea-of-x-for-different-values-of-x , salinger
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• ray-hope-rise-solar-energy-china 
  
• central-bank-digital-currency-future-money-and-politics 
  
• cross-border-restrictions-age-geopolitical-tensions-what-seven-decades-data-tell-us 
  
• when-neighbours-stop-knocking-hidden-impact-canadas-2025-tourism-decline-us-local 
  
• remote-work-premium-reconsidered
  
• how-generational-turnover-and-party-switching-reshape-us-political-map
  
• what-regional-data-tell-us-about-euro-area-phillips-curve
  
• why-firms-and-job-mobility-matter-immigrant-integration-evidence-mass-arrival-former
  
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