A few things

 Ben Roberts Smith

I have had a gutful of his supporters saying his arrest and forthcoming trial will mean a fall in recruitment. NO IT DOESN'T!!!  Most people have a moral compass, Roberts-Smith clearly did not. Remember he has was found guilty of war crimes on the basis of probability BUT not on beyond reasonable doubt. His behaviour led to Afghanis lacking any support for the allies in Afghanistan and thus lead to the taliban regaining power. To be honest he di not have the faintest idea of what fighting a war was all about.

Hungary

I was surprised Orban gave up power so easily after losing the general election. Perhaps it was the margin. He also di not realise most hungarians want to be europeans. It is also good news for Ukraine which is great too.

Democracy

The grattan institute ( easily the best in the country) has released a great paper on this subject. Wrap your head around it. It is both interesting and thought provoking.

Eric Swalwell

This man a californian democrat is being investigated for sexually assaulting several women. I am surprised at this. He is very good and does not seem remotely likely to do such a crime but we shall see. It is clear he will have to get out of the governor's job in California.

Around the Traps 10/4/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on housing-tax-reform-without-much-housing-reform , gdp-nowcast-q1-2026 , updated-weekly-fuel-prices
• Marit Kragt on winter-crops-need-to-be-sown-but-australias-farmers-are-worried-about-fertilisers-and-fuel
• Lydia Khalil on sovereign-citizen-challenge
• Mark the Ballot on attitudinal-polling
• Michelle Grattan on a-future-plan-on-fuel-should-be-central-to-albanese-governments-reform-agenda
• Graham Young on what-happens-to-centre-right-politics-if-onenation-continues-to-rise Thanks Nick
• Gareth Evans on bob-hawke-australian-prime-minister-gold-standard
• the pollbludger on newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-january-to-march
• Katja Hanewald on this-little-known-government-scheme-can-help-retirees-tap-into-3-trillion-of-housing-wealth
• Robert Breunig on by-avoiding-means-testing-the-government-is-giving-handouts-to-the-rich
• Milad Haghani et al on is-free-public-transport-a-good-idea-it-depends-on-who-gets-on-board
• the tally room on measuring marginality beyond the pendulum
• Paul Taucher and Dean Aszkielowicsz on ben-roberts-smith-is-accused-of-5-war-crime-murder-charges-how-did-we-get-here
• Helen Bird on australias-biggest-stock-exchange-needs-tougher-competition-or-we-all-risk-paying-the-price
• Greg Jericho on australia-recession-economy-rba-trump-iran
• Kevin Morrison on does-the-iran-ceasefire-mean-the-fuel-crisis-is-over-not-even-close
• John Hawkins on was-the-hawke-government-really-the-gold-standard-for-reform
• Stella Huangfu on is-australia-at-risk-of-a-recession-heres-what-the-data-actually-shows
• Tom Barber on be-informed-not-just-alert

OZ Climate

• scientific-dead-end-the-new-push-to-get-wind-turbine-syndrome-back-on-the-radar
  
• an-electric-farm-an-electric-harvest-electric-everything
  
• chart-of-the-day-how-renewables-have-helped-slash-emissions-on-australias-main-grid
  
• home-batteries-get-bigger-and-bigger-as-race-to-beat-rebate-changes-sparks-last-ditch-frenzy
  
• coal-to-liquids-coalitions-latest-energy-brain-fart-is-their-craziest-yet-and-that-takes-some-doing
  
• councils-flex-their-muscle-on-renewables-laying-down-the-local-law-on-roads-farmland-and-housing
  
• how-getting-landlords-into-heat-pump-hot-water-can-get-tenants-out-of-high-gas-bills
  
• we-just-need-more-why-australia-should-double-down-on-renewables-and-evs-not-drill-baby-drill
  
• the-clock-is-ticking-coal-is-down-prices-have-fallen-but-wind-projects-are-very-very-late
  
• australia-needs-to-rapidly-electrify-as-much-as-possible-as-fast-as-possible
  
• Peter Newman and Ray Wills on 6-things-australia-should-do-to-tackle-the-energy-crisis-rather-than-just-building-bigger-fuel-reserves
• Bjorn Sturmberg and Arastoo Teymouri on growing-ev-popularity-is-leading-to-queues-at-fast-chargers-could-a-kerbside-charger-network-help

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on given-projected-population-is-the-administrations-forecast-plausible ,liberation-day-plus-one-year
• Kruggers on donald-trump-isnt-sounding-like-himself, living-in-hell , the-terrorist-in-chief , our-darkest-hour, ignorance-and-ignominy , job-growth-on-ice
• new deal democrat on march-jobs-report-the-birds-that-came-home-to-roost-play-an-april-fools-joke-shrieking-nevermind , losing-the-worlds-respect
• Mary McCord on pam-bondi-trump-attorney-general-fired-retribution
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-vice-signaling thanks Nick
• Ilan Goldenberg on I-wargamed-iran-for-obama-this-is-the-worst-case-scenario Thanks Nick
• Barbara Perry on presidential-communication-truth-social-trump-war
• Mick Ryan on trump-s-bridge-power-day-damning-america
• Srijan Shukla on taco-fallacy
• Ronan Farrow and Andrew Marantz on sam-altman-may-control-our-future-can-he-be-trusted
• noahpinion on i-told-you-this-would-end-badly , yes-assimilation-is-good
• the conversable economist on how-federal-spending-is-distributed-to-the-elderly-working-age-and-children
• Margaret Donovan and Rachel VanLanigham on war-crimes-rhetoric-power-plants-iran
• Andrew Prokop on trump-taco-iran-ceasefire
• Home and Away on special-edition-on-iran-civilization
• Rachel VanLandingham on trump-iran-war-crime-threat-ceasefire
• Rodrigo Praino on a-whole-civilisation-will-die-tonight-trumps-genocide-threat-against-iran-was-another-new-low-for-america
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz-nato
• Molly Omstead on jd-vance-hungary-viktor-orban-christians
• Ishaan Tharoor on a-us-iran-ceasefire-is-here-but-trumps-stone-age-mentality-endures
• public notice on trump-stooges

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on auden-on-iceland
• Amr Algarhi and Adeola Oyebowele on how-brexit-reduced-the-city-of-londons-financial-clout-new-research
• ZsuZsanna Vegh on hungary-election-orban-rule-power
• Lisa Martin on europe-holds-its-breath-ahead-hungary-s-election
• Chris Dillow on in-it-for-themselves

Asia

• the conversation on how-will-the-iran-war-change-the-middle-east-we-asked-5-experts
• Joshua Keating on trump-threat-war-crimes-electricity-bridges
• Fred Kaplan on iran-trump-war-crimes-bomb
• Donald Rothwell on how-might-the-strait-of-hormuz-be-reopened-here-are-3-scenarios
• David Graham on trump-iran-civilization-threat
• Amin Saikal on the-us-israel-ceasefire-with-iran-presses-pause-on-a-costly-war-but-can-peace-last
• Ishaan Tharoor on a-us-iran-ceasefire-is-here-but-trumps-stone-age-mentality-endures
• the conversable economist on north-koreas-economy-how-to-study-a-data-black-hole
• Taufiq Rahim on the peace  Thanks Tyler
• Shanthie D'Souza on india-s-clean-energy-goals-set-challenges-bring-opportunities
• Jade Guan on same-old-formula-bigger-stakes-beijing-taiwan-s-opposition
• Anton Ponomarenko on mutual-benefits-ukraine-south-korea-partnership
• Courtney Fung and Andrea Ghiselli on iran-crisis-puts-china-s-un-diplomacy-test
• Joshua Keating on iran-nuclear-missiles
• Simon Schuster on china-taiwan-trump-iran-war
• Mark Nevitt on strait-hormuz-tolls-crisis

Wonk

• Mark the Graph on updated-energy-benchmarks
• Domenico Vincinanza on why-has-it-taken-so-long-to-return-to-the-moon
• Tim Harford on what-if-ai-just-makes-us-work-harder
• noahpinion on salarymen-specialists-and-small-businesses , all-ai-all-the-time
• Konstantine Panegyres on despairing-at-the-state-of-the-world-the-ancient-greeks-and-romans-knew-the-feeling
• eminent americans on the-failure-to-be-interesting Thanks Nick
• David Bessis on thinking-fast-slow-and-super-slow Thanks Nick
• Brad De Long on crosspost-cosma-shalizi-aware-of-internet-traditions , stochastic-lobsters-token-tsunamis , a-plea-to-chad-orzel , contemporary-governance-and-contemporary-prosperity-and-past-settler-colonialism-and-its-ilk
• Sitara Noor on ten-years-after-nuclear-security-summits-what-now
• Alex Tabarrok on ai-unemployment-and-work

General

• Andrew Barron on bumblebees-can-perceive-rhythm-despite-their-brains-being-the-size-of-a-sesame-seed
• anecdotal value on for-the-love-of-god-learn-to-paragraph Thanks Nick
• Peter Edwell on meet-diocletian-the-roman-emperor-who-retired-to-grow-cabbages

Climate

• real climate on spencers-shenanigans-part-i
• skeptical science on published-research-experiment-paper , fact-brief-windland , new_research
• ocean acidification on the-impact-of-climate-change-on-lobster-production-a-systematic-synthesis-of-literature

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• campus-newspapers-and-what-remains-of-journalism
  
• how-do-political-organizations-and-politically-minded-rich-people-translate-money-into-media-influence
  
• my-uninformed-and-completely-speculative-theory-about-jeff-bezos-and-the-washington-post
• survey-statistics-improving-with-structure
  
• an-application-for-training-deep-learning-models-in-your-browser
  
• statschat on kokako-goneburger

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on the-drama-no-spoilers
• Andrew Gelman on updike-in-tehran

Vox Wonk

• content-moderators-dilemma-how-removing-toxic-speech-distorts-online-discourse 
  
• how-emerging-markets-borrow-new-evidence-sovereign-bond-issuance 
  
• greening-border-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-incidence-eu-member-states-and
  
• knowledge-jobs-help-firms-influence-demand
  
• gig-jobs-and-crime-evidence-food-delivery-platforms-france
  
• how-far-apple-falls-evidence-social-mobility-across-oecd-countries
  
• why-firms-responses-corporate-taxes-differ-across-countries
  
• differences-ai-adoption-europe-and-us-explanations-and-implications-productivity
  

Use the 25th amendment use it now.

 Trump is unquestionably in cognitive decline. This is not unexpected. He is 80 excessively overweight and his father had dementia. He believes his own lies are the truth. He believes stories he makes up that cannot be true like his story about his uncle.

He threatened Iran with geoocide. He has constantly threatened war crimes which is a war crime in itself.

Trump threatened to put Iran back to the stone age.As Tom Nicholls says this surely meant using nukes!

His erratic behaviour makes him very unsuitable to be President. The war against Iran surely proves he has no idea of what he is doing. That someone as incompetent as Hesgeth is hid secretary of defence makes it worse.

Just replace with Vance and do it now!

A whole bunch of things

 In no order

• Ben Roberts-Smith is charged with war crimes. Just remember the Judge in the libel trial found him guilty on the balance of probabilities. He will only be found guilty if the evidence is beyond reasonable doubt. One thing against him was the Judge finding him a bully.
• Donald Rothwell raises three scenarios on how to open the strait of Homuz
• 6 ways to tackle the energy crisis. not hard to do
• ASX needs more competition. Who would have thunked it
• chargers for EV. Is there a solution?
• Brexit was bad for the city of london. That was an easy prediction.
• Tom Nicholls thinks Trump is threatening nukes. Use the 25th amendment please!
• Can you trust Sam Altman? 
• a personal story from Iran

Trump is mad

 Trump's threats against Iran are war crimes ( see Fred Kaplan and Joshua Keating ) and he acts like a terrorist. Is he trying to ape Netanyahu!  Late for me but Mick Ryan

When you blow up all energy infrastructure you are harming the civilian population who looked to you for support in removing the government. What you are doing is  strengthening the government and ensuring the population hates the USA!

What do you think Iran will do in retaliation?  I think the oil refineries and petro-chemical plants are in severe danger in countries 'supporting the USA' in the immediate area. Forget about oil getting past the strait of hormuz and put in the red sea as well!

Iran realises Trump's weakness and that is the economy. Pushing up petrol prices, fertiliser and chemicals will usher in first stagflation and then a recession as central banks react. They do not care about what happens to Iran as they will survive.

The mid-terms will become an absolute blood bath.

A rational person would realise all this. A severely impacted cognitive impaired person who unquestionably is suffering from dementia ( like his father) would not.

Bondi gawn

 Mary McCord writes a great article on this.

Let me make a few points.

• Both Bondi and Blanche started their DOJ careers with first class reputations, both declined considerably.
• Over 8k has either been sacked or resigned during their tenure.
• Only an idiot would think this would not have a negative impact on the DOJ yet they did not see this. They are now attempting to employ any person that has a law degree!
• Both a very poor political operators. Bondi's handling of the epstein files was has worse than bad, her Senate hearing embarrassing and not even turning to face Epstein survivors was very poor.
• You cannot promise to prosecute Trump 'enemies if they have committed no crime.
• Comey and James were only just indicted because of unlawful instructions as we learned from the magistrate judge.
• Quite a few attorneys were deemed unlawful on her watch on a similar bent.

Bondi was inexplicably bad at the law but much worse at the politics. Her successor maybe be better but the law is the law and you need actual evidence to prosecute.

Easter music

 Colin Davis conducting the greatest song from the greatest oratorio ever written

Around the Traps 3/4/26 Good Friday edition

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-polling
• George Verikios on war-could-add-an-extra-5-to-prices-in-australia-but-theres-one-sector-that-shields-the-economy
• Mark the Graph on cpi-reform-wont-fix-housing
• Allan Behm on trump-is-impotently-railing-against-the-uss-allies-albanese-is-right-to-avoid-the-presidents-global-catastrophe
• Locky Lui et al on halving-the-fuel-excise-is-smart-politics-but-flawed-policy
• Patrick Commins on property-tax-rules-landlords-investments-house-prices-australia
• Greg Jericho on australia-land-grab-young-people-little-hope-buying-home
• Michelle Grattan on nearly-half-our-permanent-migrants-are-working-below-their-skill-level-former-treasury-secretary
• Samantha Thomas and Hannah Pitt on small-and-underwhelming-albaneses-gambling-reforms-wont-do-much-to-reduce-harm

OZ climate

• australia-has-already-passed-gas-the-market-is-just-updating-its-paperwork
  
• local-council-drops-court-case-against-one-of-australias-most-hotly-contested-wind-projects
  
• floods-inflation-insolvency-transgrid-says-blowout-in-transmission-costs-entirely-out-of-its-control
  
• indefensible-fossil-fuel-lies-have-crippled-climate-action-so-why-did-senate-inquiry-have-to-pull-its-punches
  
• peak-load-is-expected-to-double-as-industries-flock-to-australias-world-first-100-pct-renewables-grid
  
• transmission-superhighways-will-revolutionise-energy-but-distribution-network-roads-will-drive-the-transition
  
• electric-trucks-are-increasingly-competitive-and-could-be-a-thing-if-only-the-transport-minister-would-listen
  
• home-battery-rebates-and-soaring-diesel-costs-bring-electrification-to-the-masses
  
• a-fair-energy-system-is-worth-fighting-for-but-without-playing-the-solar-and-battery-blame-game
  
• its-a-risky-strategy-why-delaying-coal-closures-may-backfire-on-price-and-reliability
  
• scientific-dead-end-the-new-push-to-get-wind-turbine-syndrome-back-on-the-radar
  
• seize-the-day-time-to-let-solar-daylight-saving-in-batteries-reduce-our-costs-in-australia
  
• Saman Gorji and Alireza Ganjovi on australias-rooftop-solar-boom-left-apartment-residents-behind-heres-how-to-fix-it
• David Bowman on we-have-the-proof-that-logging-makes-tasmanias-forests-more-flammable

Northern America

• institutional economics on maga-globalism
• Christian Paz on israel-maga-iran-religious-catholic-evangelical-zionism-dispensationalism-vatican-anti-semitism-tucker-huckabee-ted-cruz
• Kruggers on is-america-suffering-from-the-resource-curse , pete-hegseth-believes-in-the-lethality-fairy , the-psychology-of-military-incompetence , $4-gasoline-is-less-than-half-the-story, in-batteries-we-trust
• Brad De Long on confused-notes-on-the-war-on-iran , trump-doesnt-even-have-the-courage-to-run-away
• David Kang on trump-us-power-iran
• noahpinion on maybe-you-should-have-bought-an-electric-car
• Mary McCord on doj-michael-flynn-settlement-trump-lies
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-oil-shocks-raise-recession-odds-and-inflation-risks
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-vice-signaling
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-news-speech-tonight
• David Frum on trump-iran-war-oil-prices
• Ian Millhiser on pam-bondi-incomptent-justice-department
• Jeet Heer on pete-hegseth-iran-holy-war, trump-iran-speech-analysis-reaction
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-news-speech-lies
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-why-pam-bondi-fired-worst-attorney-general
• the conversable economist on trumps-tariffs-one-year-later-predictably-disappointing

Europe

• Michael Haas on breakthrough-method-netherlands Thanks Nick
• David Kirichenko on ukraine-ground-robots-are-increasingly-going-offensive

Asia

• Chang Che on how-china-learned-to-love-the-classics Thanks Nick
• Justin Bergman on why-hasnt-the-us-military-used-force-to-secure-the-strait-of-hormuz
• Shanthie D'Souza on what-india-s-game-wto
• Tommy Chai on after-america-how-southeast-asia-can-defend-itself
• Mark the Graph on groupthink-with-group-of-one
• Anna Brennan on a-war-without-accountability-why-the-middle-east-crisis-is-also-a-legal-quagmire
• Shannon Bosch on new-israeli-law-could-mean-death-penalty-by-default-for-palestinians-convicted-of-deadly-attacks
• Flavio Macau on why-a-second-global-shipping-chokepoint-could-soon-live-up-to-its-name-as-the-gate-of-tears
• Mick Ryan on iran-land-war-illusion
• Amin Saikal on trump-underestimated-irans-resilience-now-there-is-only-one-way-out-of-the-war
• anonymous on from-the-rooftops-of-tehran
• noahpinion on how-japan-has-changed-in-the-last-20-years
• the conversable economist on india-and-the-service-sector
• Charles Jones on beware-pakistan-s-general-bearing-peace-talks
• Martin Kear on what-is-benjamin-netanyahus-end-game-in-the-iran-war
• Aarti Betigeri on soft-power-politics-sari-diplomacy

Wonk

• Luke Foster on the-spirit-of-a-gentleman Thanks Nick
• John Ehrett on knowing-what-time-it-is Thanks Nick
• Sam Kriss on ai-startup-roy-lee Thanks Nick
• Mathew Crawford on the-totalitarianism-of-the-open-society Thanks Nick
• digressions impressions on on-moyn-on-popper-and-democratic-imperialism Thanks Nick
• Richard Baldwin on why-didnt-trumpian-tariffs-wreck-the-world-trade-system Thanks Brad
• artificial bureaucracy on kill-chain Thanks Nick
• the one percent rule on william-james-and-the-psychology-of-habit Thanks Nick
• Robert Lynch on how-technology-re-tribalized-us Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on energy-prices-update
• Tim Harford on the-refreshing-power-of-disagreement
• noahpinion on plentiful-high-paying-jobs-in-the-age-of-AI
• Jack Sato on what-raisina-2026-revealed-about-world-pulling-apart 
• Bernard Stewart on strongest-evidence-yet-that-vaping-likely-causes-cancer
• the conversable economist on overconfident-ai
• dead for tax reasons on the-1990s-called-they-want-their-economic-policy-back
• Kruggers on the-oil-crisis-is-about-to-get-physical
• Tyler Cowen on new-issue-of-econ-journal-watch-16
• Samir Bhattacharya on spillover-sudan
• Izabella Watts on is-cuba-next
• Frances Shin on brics-promised-new-world-order-iran-war-shows-it-can-t-deliver
• Marigold Black and Iain Magillivray on america-s-nuclear-umbrella-fraying-indo-pacific
• Jana De Kluiver on blocking-south-africa-g7-g20-carries-wider-message-world
• Henry Yep on when-confidence-becomes-policy
• institutional economics on headlong-into-the-kindleberger-trap
• Richard Haass on nearing-a-fork-in-the-road-on-iran
• Peter Beaumont on us-war-crimes-iran-civilian-infrastructure-international-law-school-strike

General

• Matt Fish on one-hit-wonders Thanks Nick
• Paul Tacon et al on nt-rock-art-thousands-of-years-old-sheds-new-light-on-the-mysterious-tasmanian-tiger
• Domenico Vincinanza on why-has-it-taken-so-long-to-return-to-the-moon

Climate

• open mind on snowpack
• skeptical science on GWP-20-terrible-idea , new_research
• ocean acidification on state-of-the-global-climate-2025
• Benji Jones on god-squad-gulf-mexico-rices-whales-endangered-species

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• should-you-include-a-list-of-retractions-and-corrections-along-with-a-list-of-publications-on-your-cv
  
• 12-dimensional-chess 
  
• these-are-the-three-ways-of-attacking-a-statistical-problem-illustrated-with-the-nfl-example
  
• the-point-of-yesterdays-post-on-the-three-ways-of-attacking-a-statistical-problem
  
• black-and-white-gray-and-in-between-what-color-is-the-media
  
• survey-statistics-design-based-cross-validation-dcv
  
• this-evil-lottery-scam-appears-to-be-aided-and-abetted-by-google-apple-yahoo-morningstar-msn-etc-etc
  
• shameless-plug-alert-win-prizes-by-forecasting-real-healthcare-data-to-help-uks-health-service-save-lives
  
• is-your-model-converging
  
• im-a-big-fan-of-the-library-you-never-know-what-youre-gonna-find-there
  
• cremieux recueill on social-scientists-are-lazy Thanks Nick
• freakometrics on fair regression under localised demographic parity constraints
• Kaiser Fung on why-only-me , know-your-data-47-ai-solves-missing-connections-or-not
• statschat on briefly

Dianne Coyle  ( quirky + book reviews)

• march-reading
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• it-may-be-time-sweden-join-euro 
  
• war-and-lost-generation-inventors 
  
• powering-digital-economy-global-expansion-data-centres-and-its-energy-implications 
  
• geography-science
  
• designing-fiscal-consolidation-achieve-fiscal-sustainability-and-sustainable
  
• china-spillovers
  
• pitting-migrants-against-babies-why-it-does-not-make-economic-sense 
  
• free-rider-innovator-how-china-became-global-pharmaceutical-powerhouse 
  
• gender-norms-and-labour-market
  
• information-equalisation-and-competition-selection-markets-evidence-auto-insurance 
  
• world-war-trade-domino-regionalism-emergent-global-trading-order 
  
• beyond-oil-macroeconomic-impact-commodity-supply-disturbances
  

The Socceroos

 I am in two minds about the socceroos. The first match against morocco and the first half on tuesday was haram ball at its best (worst). Part of the second half on the other hand was great. Bos, Irankanda and McGree had an instant impact and we looked good.

Alas there is a large difference between our good players and our dud players.

Herrington shows great promise however the negatives are both Rowles and Mabil are simply too slow for international football. Juric shoed some great touches.

Behich , Degenek, Geria, Okon, Velupullay are all not good enough.

We are okay for goal keepers, fullbacks and cemntrbacks ( if Harry souter is fit). Our midfield looks good as well. We also have two players who may score from freekicks close to the goal.

It is upfront we look soso. Irankanda is more a substitute who makes an impact Boyle has  lost his sharpness since his injury thus it is our weakness. Perhaps Toure will do it?

we have quite a few highly talented youngsters. If we are lucky they will kick on and get better. They need to because we need to be at our best to get through.

Can we not have David Basheer calling our games. He is hopeless. Can we steal some british commentators perhaps even Peter Drury the goat!!

Did Trump attempt to wag the dog

 Yes it is Iran again.

Mark the Graph ( who is required reading ) has a great article on why the war occurred again.

I want to add to that by asserting Trump attempted to wag the dog.

Before he launched an illegal war and no NATO CANNOT participate in an offensive action only a defensive one Trump was in  a a load of trouble :

• Epstein. Trump's action made it appear he was attempting to hide something or a lot of someones
• Inflation His tariff program ( which he clearly has little understanding about) made inflation worse particularly in food and groceries. He favouring of oligopolies and thereby lessening of competition has made this worse.
• Immigration. Latinos in particular are incensed that people who have committed no crimes and are good citizens are being rounded up and sent away.
• Corruption. A  lot of what is going on smells to high heaven. This is only small at present but is  permeating. 
• Unpopularity. He is easily the most unpo;luar president now even eclipsing his first term. 

Now take Trump who is not intelligent but thinks he is and has a low attention span. Venezuela was highly successful and it went to his head. Why not have a small short war against Iran who surrender's early and he gains in the polls.

Even some usual apologists like Laura Ingraham are saying Trump could not understand all the advice he was getting. As I said yesterday Iran are essentially saying no matter what you do to us we can  do things which will hurt the word economy such as reducing oil supplies and other goods  ( like oil refineries in the area) which would guarantee a world recession ( and a massacre in the mid-terms).

It is all looking pear shaped for Trump and unfortunately for the world.

Petrol again

 Well the government has backflipped and reduced oil excise.

Here is an article on it. Just remember is is not funded ie it is adding to the deficit when policy MUST be reducing it so Shane Wright maybe wright ( get it).

Let us get down to tin tacks.

The problem with petrol at the moment is excess demand. Economics tells us this does not occur when the price rises astronomically. It has mainly happened in the regions ( because of cow cockies and miners( but it is also occurring in the cities. Two examples. Demand has increased 25% in some places. Bunnings has sold out of jerry cans!! The government could ban petrol in jerry cans and tanks and should.

By the way have you noticed no-one is criticising aussies for panic buying. It is all a supply problem. Now that is fake news.

I said before I suspect this war will go on for longer than expected. Can you imagine what Iran will do if trump commits a war crime and destroys their energy infrastructure. If it is in Ukraine it must be in Iran and it does not matter if Iran is doing it we are supposed to be the good guys and we do not commit war crimes ( we also do not start a war against international law either). what does Trump think would occur to the oil price if he obliterates Kharg island?

We have a moron in charge who thinks he is a genius who also has the attention span of a cocker spaniel.

A recession is likely

Danger Will Robinson danger, danger 

What you never watched Lost in Space

Iran again

 As each day moves forward it becomes more apparent no-one really thought about strategy. THE USA has limited options.

Trump was warned about the strait of hormuz but either ignored it or didn't understand.

Imagine you are part of Iranian leadership and Israel and the USA has deliberately targeted your leadership and your economy and are saying they will destroy your energy infrastructure ( which would be a war crime). you would hate the USA with a passion. They can't do much more to your country so I would:

• do everything to imperil the world economy the US in particular given Trump's precarious polling position. This is not only the strait of hormuz and the red sea but Arabian infrastructure which would take a lot of time to repair and rebuild.
• facilitate any sort of terrorist operations against US citizens particularly in the USA. Promise the young idealists a life in paradise!!

I am not sure the US military realised how vulnerable they were to asymmetric warfare even though history should have told them all about it. They never lost a battle in south vietnam but still lost the war.

The future is highly uncertain and looks very grim. A recession looks on the cards both internationally and here!

I should add Iranians are not trumpists. They are not idiots. They know the amount of troops being sent to the area is not enough to invade Iran only enough to attack a specific target like where Iranian oil or nuclear materials here. It aint hard to defend against that and dead US soldiers would be a millstone around Trump's neck

Around the Traps 27/3/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Tanya Murphy on when-matter-goes-investigation-what-means-doesnt Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on why-housing-is-primarily-supply-problem , australias-oil-reserve-in-america
• Susan Sawyer on early-wins-for-the-social-media-ban-new-survey-claims-but-the-full-picture-is-far-more-complicated
• Tom McIlroy on superannuation-should-be-used-for-aged-care-not-inherited-by-next-generation-aged-care-ceo-says
• Rob Manwaring on one-nations-surge-and-liberal-partys-collapse-in-sa-election-reveal-tectonic-shifts-in-australian-politics
• Tony Barry on south-australian-election-voters-frustrated-angry-one-nation
• Antony Green on sa2026-some-early-observations-on-the-result
• Bec Strating and Elise Stephenson on security-gap-australia-can-t-afford-ignore
• Rod Sims on australian-gas-companies-massive-profits-paying-minimal-tax
• Hazel Moir on prosecco-makers-lose-out-as-australia-seals-eu-free-trade-deal-after-8-long-years-of-talks
• Taul Harper on our-interest-in-electric-vehicles-has-grown-due-to-oil-price-spikes-and-its-likely-to-remain
• David Vallance on conventional-icbms-could-end-australia-s-geographic-sanctuary
• Christian Downie on fake-news-on-everything-from-whales-to-wind-farms-australia-is-flooded-with-climate-misinformation
• Zareh Ghazarian on one-nation-surge-2-0-this-time-there-are-structural-issues-at-play
• Zhara Shahhoseini on australia-must-brace-for-clusters-of-natural-disasters-not-just-isolated-fires-and-floods
• Greg Jericho on australia-inflation-profit-margins-fuel-crisis-supply-chain-shock
• Shane Wright on let-s-not-adopt-drongo-economics-to-deal-with-high-priced-fuel
• Mark Melatos on compulsory-super-is-higher-than-ever-at-12-but-cutting-it-would-hurt-low-paid-workers-most
• Brent Jackson on eu-australia-fta-plays-long-game-critical-minerals-no-short-cuts

OZ Climate

• from-shuttered-coal-plant-to-gigascale-battery-agl-begins-commissioning-of-liddell-bess
  
• why-some-of-australias-energy-market-conventions-should-go-the-way-of-the-dinosaurs
  
• massive-step-state-inks-deals-to-deliver-more-than-1-gw-of-new-wind-power-ahead-of-mass-coal-exodus
  
• pressure-mounts-to-power-up-energy-efficiency-to-unplug-households-from-global-energy-shocks
  
• green-light-for-network-big-battery-sent-to-regulator-by-interstate-and-long-distance-objectors\
  
• diesel-replacement-australias-billion-dollar-opportunity-to-electrify-cut-global-fossil-ties
  
• how-climate-and-renewables-disinformation-networks-are-fuelling-a-major-national-security-threat
  
• gas-shortage-warnings-pushed-out-again-as-big-battery-boom-and-electrification-take-fresh-bite-from-demand
  
• hormuz-is-a-warning-australias-oil-problem-is-its-electrification-gap
  
• a-slam-dunk-rio-tinto-gets-2-billion-lifeline-to-shift-massive-smelter-from-costly-coal-to-firm-renewables
  
• a-home-battery-case-study-from-little-interest-in-storage-to-bills-that-are-always-in-credit
  
• developer-slams-lengthy-and-unnecessary-legal-battle-as-council-drops-case-against-wind-project
  
• Andrew Blakkers on oil-reserves-last-for-weeks-solar-panels-last-for-decades
• Patrick Commins on australia-generation-alpha-faces-185k-bill-over-lifetime-without-urgent-action-on-climate-crisis-report-finds
• Adam Morton on if-one-nation-wants-to-be-a-serious-political-player-barnaby-joyce-needs-to-get-his-facts-straight-on-the-climate-crisis

Northern America

• Bryan Walsh on iran-strait-hormuz-gas-prices-oil-natural-gas-fertilizer-food
• Kruggers on how-to-burn-less-oil , adventures-in-fantasy-diplomacy , treason-in-the-futures-markets , the-war-on-wind-continues , the-worst-and-the-dumbest
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-is-immigration-bad-for-america
• Mark Stern on alito-supreme-court-trump-voter-fraud-lies
• Peter Werner on trump-maga-conservatism
• renew economy on trumps-latest-bid-to-snuff-out-offshore-wind-pay-firms-not-to-build-it
• noahpinion on there-isnt-always-a-long-arc-of-morality
• the conversable economist on interview-with-erika-mcentarfer-firings-and-federal-statistics , the-growth-of-big-business-1900-2020 , bending-the-curve-of-health-care-costs-at-last
• Rodney Tiffen on trump-is-remaking-the-us-media-in-his-own-image-and-smashing-accountability-with-it
• Eric Levitz on iran-war-trump-george-w-bush-tucker-carlson-rogan
• Jonathan Chait on republican-hawks-israel-iran
• Eliot Cohen on iran-war-reveals-american-weakness
• Isaac Chotiner on how-donald-trump-may-have-sabotaged-his-chances-for-a-deal-with-iran
• home and away on michael-dukakis-had-a-point
• Barno Nouri and Inderjeet Parma on donald-trumps-new-15-point-plan-is-the-biggest-sign-yet-that-washington-fears-it-is-losing-this-war
• David Remnick on the-first-casualty-of-trumps-war-in-iran-was-the-truth
• Alex Tabarrok on social-security-should-be-a-forced-savings-program-not-a-welfare-program
• Carol Leonnig on jack-smith-trump-classified-documents-financial-motive

Europe

• Guy Hedgcoe on multiple factors caused  2025 blackout in spain and portugal
• Lisa Martin on denmark-votes-amid-smouldering-us-alliance
• Menzie Chinn on the-ecb-and-its-watchers-xxvi
• Jonathan Lemire and Simon Schuster on nato-iran-war-trump-russia

Asia

• Mathew Powell on why-iran-is-attacking-gulf-energy-infrastructure
• Ian Werely on the-west-has-long-characterized-irans-oil-as-a-prize-to-be-claimed
• Natalie Klein on how-the-law-of-naval-warfare-applies-to-the-strait-of-hormuz
• noahpinion on china-is-quietly-looking-weaker
• Patrick Wintour on ran-war-conflict-middle-east-trump-israel
• Rodger Shanahan on trump-and-netanyahu-have-formed-a-convenient-coalition-behind-it-are-clear-divisions
• Vincent Durac on how-active-have-irans-proxy-groups-been-since-the-start-of-the-war
• Henry Storey on india-s-cautious-embrace-trade
• Jessica Genauer on iran-cant-win-this-war-but-it-can-force-a-us-retreat-using-these-4-insurgency-tactics
• Marianne Hanson on israel-wants-to-destroy-irans-nuclear-program-but-should-it-have-nuclear-weapons-itself
• Jason Reifler on iran-war-lacks-strategy-goals-legitimacy-and-support-in-the-us-and-around-the-world
• Iain Boyd on how-far-can-irans-ballistic-missiles-reach-a-defense-expert-explains-how-the-missiles-work-and-what-iran-can-and-cant-hit
• Neve Gordon on the-gaza-doctrine-iran-lebanon
• Ian Philbrick on iran-war-donald-trump-news-israel
• Oren Ziv and Ariele Caine on investigation-settlers-expand-area Thanks Elie

Wonk

• the unpopulist on marco-rubio-gets-western-civilizations-defining-features-all -wrong Thanks Nick
• lament for nations on fukuyamas-schmitt-posting Thanks Nick
• the fitzstack on the-manosphere-as-a-monument-to-progressive-cultural-power Thanks Nick
• ACD on most-work-is-translation Thanks Nick
• for a new democracy on whos-afraid-of-citizens-assemblies Thanks Nick
• persuasion on how-trans-activism-became-so-radical Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on energy-costs-are-rising
• Tina Hunter on why-middle-east-gas-field-attacks-could-send-energy-prices-soaring
• Lauren Hall et al on fines-alone-wont-stop-big-tech-behaving-badly-heres-what-might-work
• Mathew Burkholder on evangelical-holy-war-why-some-christians-think-trump-will-end-the-world
• Eric Sand on strategy in the new missile age  Thanks Tyler
• Brad De Long on crosspost-paul-ford-the-ai-disruption-we-have-been-waitimg-for-has-arrived
• Laura Panza on this-is-how-the-1970s-oil-shock-played-out-there-are-lessons-for-the-economy-today
• Jane Kelsey on a-crucial-meeting-aims-to-remake-the-wto-to-fit-the-new-global-order
• Nancy Yousef and Missy Ryan on iran-us-asymmetrical-war
• Adam Hanieh on bottling-the-world-economy-hormuz-gulf
• Sanchari Ghosh on quad-s-coherence-problem
• Chris Dillow on on-advertising-bias
• Rob Nicholls on meta-and-google-just-lost-a-landmark-social-media-addiction-case-a-tech-law-expert-explains-the-fallout
• noahpinion on the-economic-consequences-of-the-iran-war , ai-has-the-worst-sales-pitch-ive-seen
• the conversable economist on when-keynes-did-not-win-the-nobel-peace-prize
• Yogi Febriandi on harnessing-islamic-philanthropy-save-lives-andaman-sea
• Menzie Chinn on geopolitics-becoming-key-risk-for-central-banks-panel

General

• Darius Sepehri on what-is-nowruz-the-iranian-new-year
• Dan Rockmore on in-defense-of-algebra-paul-lockhart

Climate

• John Cook et al on do-middle-earth-and-westeros-make-sense-climate-scientists-modelled-them-to-find-out
• ocean acidification on ocean-acidification-disrupts-the-biomineralization-process-in-the-oyster-crassostrea-virginica-via-intracellular-calcium-signaling-dysregulation-2 , co2-rise-modulates-the-physiological-performance-of-the-diatoms-thalassiosira-pseudonana-and-thalassiosira-weissflogii-to-light-challenge
• Andrew King on the-latest-world-climate-report-is-grim-but-its-not-the-end-of-the-story
• skeptical science on blue-ca-red-texas-green-power , fact-brief-windsyndrome , new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• nutpie-state-of-the-art-mass-matrix-adaptation-for-hmc
  
• claimed-100-sensitivity-and-specificity-in-differentiating-autistic-individuals-from-typically-developing-controls-using-retinal-photographs-yeah-right
  
• space-mirrors-awesome-solution-to-our-energy-problems-or-ridiculous-public-relations-stunt
  
• how-earthquake-safe-are-vancouver-condos
  
• false-claims-in-a-published-no-corrections-no-consequences-welcome-to-the-business-school
  
• survey-statistics-individualism-and-the-cv-noise-problem
  
• notation-corner-when-you-have-several-different-expressions-that-are-mathematically-equivalent-you-dont-have-to-choose-just-one
  
• what-major-works-of-literature-were-written-after-age-of-85-75-65
  
• considering-some-anti-bayesian-arguments-in-the-context-of-fda-draft-guidance-for-the-use-of-bayesian-methods-in-clinical-trials
  
• frank-harrell-on-why-and-how-to-do-bayes-for-clinical-trials-and-the-recent-fda-draft-guidelines
  
• maybe-one-of-the-remaining-72-dolphins-will-read-this-one
  
• statschat on cars-vs-public-transport , as-and-when-it-looks-supportive
• Kaiser Fung on guide-to-using-pairs-of-circles
• freakometrics on a scalable toolbox for exposing indirect discrimination in insurance rates

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tim Harford on the-link-between-material-and-moral-flourishing-is-real
• open mind on project-hail-mary
• stoat on book-review-case-against-education

vox wonk

• cbdc-neutrality-bank-liquidity-and-hybrid-nature-bank-deposits 
  
• beyond-cost-cutting-how-foundational-process-innovations-drive-sustained-growth 
  
• ageing-china-chinas-pension-reform-debate-enters-new-phase 
  
• our-underappreciated-international-reserve-system 
  
• business-investment-era-digital-transformation
  
• economic-consequences-low-skilled-immigration-sudden-stop-evidence-koreas-guest
  
• dollarisation-waves-insights-bis-international-bond-database
  
• subsidising-supply-chain-how-chinas-industrial-policy-shapes-export-competitiveness 
  
• remote-work-can-blunt-fertility-decline
  
• rise-and-fall-eu-labour-shortages-recent-developments-and-some-forward-looking 
  
• how-interest-rates-affect-spending-household-debt-and-role-asset-prices  
  
• preparing-new-g20-alignment
  

Inflation

 the ABS released our monthly inflation rate. There was both good and bad news. The bad news was inflation barely budged at an annual rate. the good news is that for the second month inflation annualised was running within the RBAs target.

The other bad news was Trump's fooly of declaring war on Iran. This has raised the price of petrol. Because  it is ubiquitous it is like the GST being being raised. I think we can safely say the next CPI will show inflation above 4% and it rising to above 5% this year.

For history read THIS.

A supply side shock like this will cause a recession and the RBA reaction almost guarantees this. Rates wil almost certainly be raised in May and perhaps again after that.

This year is going to be tough!

Gerard Henderson watch

 Since the failure of catallaxy I have had no-one to examine like I could with Sinclair Davidsons absurdums.

However starting today I wil levery so often look at what Gerard Henderson is saying. It is almost always about the ABC.

For those who do not know of him he was the man who coined the Industrial relations club expression. This view has been controversial however I am sympathetic to the view. Henderson became Howard's chief of staff. He later essentially remade the Sydney Institute.

He recently made comments about Peter Hartcher on Insiders. He was quite critical that Hartcher said the vietnam war and the US invasion of Iraq were illegal just like the war on Iran. My guess is Hendo is saying the Gulf of Tonkin incident was fair dinkum, Most people believe it was made up making the war illegal.

Bush attempted to go through the UN in his desire to invade Iraq however he gave up. The USA invaded Iraq when it was under no threat from Iraq and it had no weapons that could pose a threat ( you know the alleged weapons of mass destruction. Few people believed the war had any legality.

I have yet to see any argument that the war with Iran has any legality at all.

Our Gerry doesn't like Grace Tame. He claimed the expression globalise the intifada is an expression of violence if not of murdering jews. He talks of jews being killed in both intifadas. No mention of palestinians being killed however even though their number far outweighed those of Israelis. No mention of the causes of the intifadas one or two.

Gerry does not elaborate on exactly how jews in australia could be killed. Indeed he does not elaborate on how an intifada could exist here.

I should add in ending he hates interviews at the ABC he claims  be soft yet quite easily the softest interview I have ever seen ( if you can call it an interview) was when Sharri Markson interviewed the Israeli PM who still is an indicted war criminal. our Gerry was mute.