Around the Traps 1/11/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Kandulu et al on why-building-more-big-dams-is-a-costly-gamble-for-our-future-water-security-and-the-environment
• Jocelyne Basseal and Ben Marias on australias-covid-inquiry-shows-why-a-permanent-centre-for-disease-control-is-more-urgent-than-ever
• William Partlett on in-failing-to-probe-robodebt-australias-anti-corruption-body-fell-at-the-first-hurdle-it-now-has-a-second-chance
• John Hawkins on inflation-is-sinking-ever-lower-now-that-its-official-whats-the-rba-going-to-do
• Neil Sima and Pap Canadell on state-of-the-climate-2024-australia-is-enduring-harsher-fire-seasons-more-ocean-heatwaves-and-sea-level-rise
• Michelle Grattan on inquiry-warns-distrustful-public-wouldnt-accept-covid-measures-in-future-pandemic
• Saam Roggeveen on costs-vs-benefits-pat-conroy-s-new-missile-age
• Greg Jericho on labor-inflation-energy-rebates-rba-interest-rates-cuts
• Helen Spiropolous and Rebecca Bachman on the-big-4-accounting-firms-often-consult-for-the-same-clients-they-audit-should-that-be-allowed
• Michela Mariani et al on ancient-mud-reveals-australias-burning-history-over-the-past-130-000-years-and-shows-a-way-through-our-fiery-future

OZ Climate

• broken-hill-has-a-wind-farm-a-solar-farm-and-a-big-battery-so-why-are-the-lights-out
  
• from-zero-to-100-pct-renewables-in-just-20-years-south-australias-remarkable-energy-transition
  
• energy-regulator-joins-probe-into-reasons-for-lengthy-blackouts-in-storm-hit-broken-hill
  
• australias-first-commercial-solar-thermal-heat-plant-to-slash-gas-use-at-mars-factory
  
• big-batteries-lead-renewable-charge-as-record-45-gigawatts-of-new-capacity-seeks-grid-connection
  
• death-spiral-network-blows-up-renewable-gas-claims-wants-to-hit-consumers-for-cost-of-stranded-assets
  
• ontarios-huge-nuclear-debt-and-other-things-dutton-doesnt-understand-about-cost-of-electricity
  
• Jamie Pittock and Andrew Blakers on queensland-election-signals-both-major-parties-accept-pumped-hydro-and-the-renewable-energy-transition-as-inevitable
• Adam Morton on peter-dutton-nuclear-power-plan-coal
• Graham Readfearn on wicked-problem-five-charts-that-show-how-the-climate-crisis-is-making-australia-more-dangerous

Northern America

• Tom Ginsberg and Aziz Huq on trump-second-term-graver-threat-to-democracy-than-first Thanks Nick
• John Kruzel on american-voters-largely-united-against-partisan-gerrymandering-polling-shows Thanks Nick
• Dennis Muller on two-of-the-uss-biggest-newspapers-have-refused-to-endorse-a-presidential-candidate-this-is-how-democracy-dies
• Kathryn Schumaker and Allyson Shortle on most-republican-states-have-made-voting-harder-since-2020-our-research-shows-how-successful-theyve-been
• noahopinion on why-americas-future-could-hinge-on-the-future-if-elon-musk , on-immigration-what-americans-want-is-democratic-control , if-trump-loses-the-election-our-nation-caan-finally-rest , thinking-about-temporary-hardship
• new deal democrat on why-has-the-inverted-yield-curve-failed-a-fundamentals-based-explanation
• Nathaniel Rakich on states-accurate-polls
• Jianxin Wang on how-do-us-presidential-elections-affect-the-economy-and-the-stock-market
• Andrew Prokop on stephen-miller-mass-deportation-camps-trump-agenda
• Geoff Boucher on is-donald-trump-a-fascist-no-hes-a-new-brand-of-authoritarian
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-bush-gore-harris-trump-coup-steal-election , supreme-court-voter-purge-virginia-beals-coalition-immigrant
• Joel Eissenberg on elon-musk-cant-do-arithmetic , no-overregulation-isnt-crushing-the-american-free-market
• the conversable economist on the-national-childcare-program-during-world-war-ii , a-federal-guarantee-of-paid-vacation
• Nicole Narea on trump-tony-hinchcliffe-puerto-rico-latinos-pennsylvania , 2024-election-violence-trump-loses-extremism-civil-war
• Ryan Beckworth on trump-repeal-20th-century-campaign-promises
• Carol Johnston on gender-is-playing-a-crucial-role-in-this-us-election-and-its-not-just-about-kamala-harris
• Markus Wagner on in-2020-trump-went-to-the-courts-after-losing-this-time-the-legal-challenges-have-already-started
• Soren Karau and Johannes Fischer on what-financial-markets-say-about-economic-implications-potential-trump-election
• Richard Hasen on ballot-box-fires-oregon-washington-early-voting-safety
• Mark Stern on us-presidential-election-supreme-court-virginia-voter-rolls-purge
• Dahlia Lithwick on donald-trump-election-2024-democracy-press-vote-law
• Jonathan Mingle on planet-2025-trump-climate
• Fintan O'Toole on the-protection-racket
• Rachel Monroe on the-conservative-strategy-to-ban-abortion-nationwide
• Skanda Amarmarth on stagnation-gone-and-us-productivity-growing
• John Hart on explainer-a-short-history-of-the-electoral-college-and-how-it-subverts-the-will-of-voters
• Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch on the-economy-would-grow-under-harris-under-trump-expect-higher-prices-and-debt
• Jeet Heer on trump-billionaire-plutocracy-musk
• Michael Podhorzer on huge-problem-polls-trumps-mass-deportation-plan

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on if-the-official-inflation-rate-is-correct-the-real-policy-rate-in-russia-is-now-12-4
• Frank Ledwidge on ukraine-cannot-defeat-russia-the-best-the-west-can-do-is-help-kyiv-plan-for-a-secure-post-war-future
• Luane Geiger on russia-struggles-ukraine-north-korea-benefits
• Timothy Ash on homage-to-kharkiv
• Mainly Macro on a-budget-that-points-way-but-doesnt-get-us-very-far

Asia

• Andrew Thomas on Israel-and-iran-are-playing-a-dangerous-game-of-chicken-that-will-be-impossible-to-contain-forever
• Rahman Yacob on prabowo-s-china-challenge-around-natuna-islands
• Mahbi Maulaya on china-south-china-sea-tailoring-history-propaganda
• Rahul Jaybhay on india-s-historic-shift-attitude-about-us-base-diego-garcia
• Srijan Shukla on managing-india-s-labour-troubles
• Greg Earl on asia-s-year-electoral-upsets

Wonk

• institutional economics on nice-pro-cyclical-asset-youve-got there
• internal exile on habermas-machines Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-economics-nobel-prize-and-settler-mortality
• Jonathan Waters and Graham McCulloch on stoneflies-change-colour-in-response-to-deforestation-suggesting-humans-can-alter-evolution-new-research
• Tim Harford on should-everyone-earn-their-pay-rise
• Flora Salim on what-is-ai-superintelligence-could-it-destroy-humanity-and-is-it-really-almost-here
• Aiden Warren and Charles Hunt on what-trump-return-might-mean-aukus-quad
• Maria Yanotti on what-are-veblen-and-giffen-goods
• Sunaina Kumar on greater-g20-brics-brics-global-south-led-reform-international-governance 
• Chris Bertram on what-happens-if-americans-claim-asylum-from-a-trump-regime
• Thomas Lalevee on liberal-societies-are-under-siege-from-authoritarians-and-extreme-capitalism-but-self-help-for-liberals-wont-fix-us
• the conversable economist on the-fourth-industrial-revolution-and-the-future-of-work

General

• Luis Marin and Miguel Rentaria on how-do-genes-shape-the-structures-in-our-brains-we-studied-70-000-people-and-found-new-links-to-adhd-and-parkinsons
• Shane Rogers et al on 6-reasons-why-people-enjoy-horror-movies
• Reidar Lystad on olympic-athletes-live-much-longer-than-average-joes-but-elite-afl-and-rugby-union-players-dont
• Tirth Haishnav on collisions-between-planes-and-birds-follow-seasonal-patterns-and-overlap-with-breeding-and-migration-new-research

Climate

• skeptical science on is-climate-change-fuelling-mega-hurricanes , hidden-health-toll-hurricanes
• Andrew King and Tito Ziehn on earths-climate-will-keep-changing-long-after-humanity-hits-net-zero-emissions-our-research-shows-why
• Brook Williams and Robin Chazdon on 215-million-hectares-of-forest-an-area-bigger-than-mexico-could-grow-back-by-itself-if-we-can-just-leave-it-alone
• ocean acidification on experimental-coral-reef-communities-transform-yet-persist-under-mitigated-future-ocean-warming-and-acidification

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• this-one-might-possibly-be-interesting
  
• reduce-likelihood-of-a-tick-bite-by-73-6-times-forking-paths-on-the-appalachian-trail
  
• nyt-catches-up-to-statistical-modeling-causal-inference-and-social-science
  
• freakonomics-does-it-again-not-in-a-good-way-jeez-these-guys-are-credulous
  
• a-polling-question-for-nate-cohn-at-the-new-york-times
  
• what-makes-an-mcmc-sampler-gpu-friendly
  
• leave-one-out-cross-validation-loo-for-an-astronomy-problem
  
• stan-playground-run-stan-on-the-web-play-with-your-program-and-data-at-will-and-no-need-to-download-anything-on-your-computer
  
• small potatoes on progressives-should-worry-more-about-more-thn-their-favourite-scientific-findings Thanks Nick
• Freakometrics on more neurons in the hidden layer than predictive features in neural nets

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• currency-denomination-foreign-exchange-reserves-taboo-past-towards-disclosure-and
  
• temporary-employment-puts-drag-wage-growth-macroeconomic-consequences
  
• populisms-original-sin-short-term-economic-consequences-populist-policy
  
• what-financial-markets-say-about-economic-implications-potential-trump-election
  
• intergenerational-poverty-persistence-europe-and-great-gatsby-curve
  
• health-inequality-and-economic-disparities-race-ethnicity-and-gender
  
• double-registration-and-strategic-voting-across-state-lines
  
• institutions-and-prosperity-2024-nobel-laureates
  
• counting-undead-new-metric-identifying-zombie-firms
  
• eea-minorities-economics-professional-climate-survey-summary
  
• promoting-and-taxing-investment-uk-budget
  
• foreign-aid-and-root-causes-migration
  
• us-electoral-impact-remote-work-and-inter-state-migration
  
• bank-specialisation-and-zombie-lending
  

domestic politics

 albo and quatas

This story never made any sense. No CEO would have the time to do what was alleged. He has much more important thin ngs to do. It took time But Albo has concluded from all his communications the alleged incidents did not happen. Perhaps someone should have sniffed this since Aston who made the allegation is not close to either albo or joyce.  A long time ago when I was studying for an MBA ( and there was no chairman's lounge we found out that Quatas targeted high volume customers with upgrades.

CPI

Inflation figures came out and confirmed that inflation is slowing now. what will the RBA do. you do not wait for inflation to fall to the desired range to start cutting rates. you only need to be confident that inflation will make it there. Waiting until you see the whites of their eyes could put the economy into recession. All business surveys confirm cost pressures are falling and in some cases fast.

NACC

It falls at the first hurdle

The climate is getting hotter

THIS is not good news.

Covid measures could have been better

 We had a report released yesterday reviewing covid measures.

I am sympathetic to the leaders at the time. They had little idea of what to do apart from observing what was occurring overseas and thus do what was working there.

It is easy being a monday morning quarterback as the yanks would say. I'm not criticizing the report merely making an observation.

Also important is that most australians did not want many to die from covid initially but then when the vaccines came grew more ambivalent. 

Hopefully when the next pandemic occurs we will be better prepared.

foreign elections

 Over the weekend we saw elections in Georgia and Japan.

Independent observers did not believe the elections in Georgia was free or fair. Unsurprisingly the pro-russian party in government 'won' the election. See HERE for example.

In Japan the PM who deliberately held an early election found the result blow up in his face. For a leading Western nation Japan really does not have a democracy. One party ,the LDP, has virtually governed the nation since the end of WW2.

All  interesting

a bit of this and a bit of that

 Broken Hill

Broken Hill should not have a problem with electricity Just quietly notice all those types that blamed windmills for the SA blackout are now silent on the very same issue in Broken Hill except renewables are nowhere to be seen!

Double Standards

Steve from Brisbane has an article on the double stands applied to Trump and whom ever he is running against in this case Harris. Think about this Trump said he could eliminate the USA's federal debt by using crypto currency. That is unmitigated garbage but nothing was said or reported. mostly he speaks  rambling incoherence but nothing is said. He is clearly having severe cognitive problems but nothing is said.

Cricket

Holy moly. England thrashed by Pakistan and the Kiwis, the Kiwis mind you, beat India in India for the first time in a very long time. What is happening here? 

The ppms batting could not cope with two spinners I simply do not rate. Neither Root nor Brook who are the best two batsmen against spin did as much as they should have. Stokes was poor both as a captain and a batsman in the last two tests.

In India Santner went bananas yet again I do not rate him at all. I reckon he would struggle in shires. The Indian batting looked very suspect and is Kholi over the hill??

Polling in the USA

People seem to miss two things of polls in the USA

1. Most polls have small sample sizes which means they have large margins of error. We have larger sample sizes here is OZ! 
2. Republicans put out 'clap trap' polls just so they get in the polls that are used to determine who is winning and thus getting big MO. BUT it backfired in 2022.

Queensland election

This was the right result. The LNP won government but has only a small  majority. The Greens went backwards. does this mean the ALP will win federal green seats??  THe LNP lost the campaign to a totally wooden figure in Miles.Hmmm

Around the Traps 25/10/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Alex Russell et al on pokies-lotto-sports-betting-which-forms-of-problem-gambling-affect-australians-the-most
• Jenns Zinn and Julia Plass on how-extreme-weather-and-costs-of-housing-and-insurance-trap-some-households-in-a-vicious-cycle
• Ian Musgrave on draft-guidelines-for-forever-chemicals-have-been-released-heres-what-it-means-for-drinking-water-safety-in-australia
• Jonathan Boymal et al  on australias-fertility-rate-has-reached-a-record-low-what-might-that-mean-for-the-economy
• Antonia Searle on rebuilding-homes-after-a-disaster-is-an-opportunity-to-build-back-better-why-isnt-the-insurance-industry-on-board
• Matt Withers on pacific-australia-labour-mobility-scheme-helping-some-workers-harming-others-it
• Bhiamie Williamson on cultural-burning-isnt-just-important-to-indigenous-culture-its-essential-to-australias-disaster-management
• John Quiggin on deputy-sheriff-or-imperial-outpost
• Ross Gittins on get-this-into-your-head-we-are-now.-short-of-workers-not-jobs , how-supermarkets-get-away-with-raising-their-prices
• Lauren Kelly on why-woolworths-workers-cant-sleep-at-night-inside-the-supermarket-giants-controversial-framework
• croaking cassandra on fiction-and-spin , pretty-illegal
• Kevin Bonham on the-commonest-arguments-for-opv-are-overrated

OZ Climate

• giant-wind-farm-behind-barnaby-poo-tickets-outburst-changes-layout-trims-turbine-numbers
  
• rooftop-pv-propels-renewables-to-75-pct-share-of-grid-for-first-time-sends-coal-and-demand-to-record-lows
  
• rooftop-solar-reaches-stunning-new-record-of-112-9-per-cent-of-state-demand
  
• bowen-says-next-round-of-cis-tenders-will-seek-10-gigawatts-of-wind-solar-and-battery-storage
  
• australias-biggest-storage-tender-poised-for-takeoff-as-authorities-wrestle-with-hybrid-issue
  
• from-zero-to-100-pct-renewables-in-just-20-years-south-australias-remarkable-energy-transition
  
• were-dealing-with-outrage-calls-for-industry-to-shape-up-as-policy-uncertainty-dogs-shift-to-renewables
  
• broken-hill-has-a-wind-farm-a-solar-farm-and-a-big-battery-so-why-are-the-lights-out
  
• Gabrielle Kupper on making-air-conditioners-smart-could-cut-household-energy-bills

Northern America

• institutional economics on markets-and-the-us-presidential-election
• Lisa Rubin on jack-smith-trump-evidence-jan-6-election-case
• Justin Peters on hurricane-milton-florida-update-damage
• noahopinion on a-better-way-to-build-a-downtown , how-long-can-we-sustain-economic-growth , realistically-how-much-damage-could-trump-do-to-the-economy
• the conversable economist on employment-levels-for-low-income-women-and-men-since-the-1990s , a-prescription-for-fixing-the-us-healthcare-system
• new deal democrat on are-corporate-profits-stalling-in-q3
• Shirin Ali on trump-trials-jack-smith-evidence-document-unsealed
• Fred Kaplan on us-israel-trump-phone-call-netanyahu-gaza-cease-fire-2024-election
• Drezners world on the-evidence-for-trumps-fascism-is-overwhelming Thanks Brad
• Henry Storey on china-s-cleantech-investment-us-leg-or-security-threat
• Benji Jones on cop16-biodiversity-why-us-global-treaty-protect-nature
• Jeffrey Goldberg on trump-military-generals-hitler
• Jeet Heer on trump-vance-gop-conspiracy-theories , musk-trump-plutocracy-lottery-illegal
• Kathryn Schumaker and Allyson Shortle on most-republican-states-have-made-voting-harder-since-2020-our-research-shows-how-successful-theyve-been
• Christian Paz on trump-fascist-kamala-harris-campaigns-biden-democracy-familiar-closing-argument-campaign-2024
• Joel Eissenberg on the-economics-of-trump-ii
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-immigration-and-us-shelter-prices-the-role-of-geographical-and-immigrant-heterogeneity
• Dennis Warmstead and Seth Feaster on nowhere-go-down-us-coal-capacity-generation

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on against-scooby-doo-ideology
• Mainly Macro on october-budget-7-soaking-rich
• Adam Simpson on whats-at-stake-in-elections-in-georgia-and-moldova-this-week-a-stark-choice-between-russia-and-the-west

Asia

• Tim Lindsey on indonesias-new-president-prabowo-subianto-finds-democracy-very-tiring-are-darker-days-ahead-for-the-country
• Ian Parmeter on hamas-leader-yahya-sinwars-death-is-a-defining-moment-but-it-will-not-end-the-war
• Ellen Ioannes on gaza-israel-hamas-hezbollah-sinwar-netanyahu-united-nations
• the conversable economist on the-puzzle-of-japans-economy
• Sergey Sukhankin on central-asia-emerging-battlefield-strategic-minerals
• Ikhlas Hadi and Marin Eckstrom on ghosts-japan-s-occupation-malaysia
• Miranda De Moraes on birthright-israel-jews-palestinians-hamas-gaza-war-hostages
• Tristan Dunning et al on with-northern-gaza-desperate-and-hungry-israels-actions-are-shaking-the-world-order-to-its-core
• Robin Wright on what-happens-to-hamas-and-hezbollah-now-that-their-leaders-have-been-killed
• Amit Rajan and Genevieve Donnellan-May on have-india-china-achieved-border-breakthrough
• Morgan James on japan-will-ishiba-s-election-gamble-pay
• Kai Schultz and Shruti Srivastava on supply-chain-latest-new-trade-and-growth-models Thanks Brad

Wonk

• Tim Harford on my-biggest-productivity-mistake
  
• noahopinion on the-free-world-teeters-on-the-edge , evs-are-just-going-to-win
• John Quiggin on the-death-of-the-book-again
• Mathew Hole on whats-the-difference-between-fusion-and-fission-a-nuclear-physicist-explains
• Christopher Browning on hitlers-enablers-the-death-of-democracy-benjamin-carter-hett
• Matt Gevisser on fragile-unity-in-south-africa
• the conversable economist on larry-summers-on-the-economics-of-ai
• Tyler Cowen on quantitative-economics-with-deep-learning
• construction physics on will-the-china-cycle-come-for-airbus Thanks Brad

General

• Maria Cunningham on astronomers-just-found-complex-carbon-molecules-in-space-a-step-closer-to-deciphering-the-origins-of-life

Climate

• Umair Irfan on hurricane-climate-change-flood-helene-milton-warming
• real climate on science-is-not-value-free
• moyhu on september-global-surface-templs-down-from-august, giss-september-global-temperature-down-frrom-august
• skeptical science on widening-highways-doesnt-reduce-traffic
• ocean acidification on heavy-metals-in-the-ocean-become-more-toxic

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• carroll-langer-credulous-scientist-as-hero-reporting-from-a-podcaster-who-should-know-better
  
• what-is-the-purpose-of-a-methods-section
  
• supporting-bayesian
  
• which-book-should-you-read-first-active-statistics-or-regression-and-other-stories
  
• prediction-markets-and-the-need-for-dumb-money-as-well-as-smart-money
  
• freakometrics on the rule for random forests , risks new issue
• Kaiser Fung on hurricane-insurance-merry-go-round , why-deep-fakes-are-here-to-stay

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• macroeconomic-effects-ai-innovation
  
• housing-consumption-channel-mortgage-demand
  
• rapid-adoption-generative-ai
  
• impact-insolvency-regimes-non-performing-loans-lessons-detailed-credit-data
  
• medicis-quiet-coup-how-wealthy-bend-politics-without-shifting-institutions
  
• economic-losses-climate-change-are-probably-larger-you-think-new-ngfs-scenarios
  
• despair-and-anxiety-among-uk-youth
  
• distributional-consequences-trade-evidence-grain-invasion
  
• national-wealth-fund-uk
  

Another note on US Politics

 I am going to address a few issues that any person facing the election must contemplate but not in any order.

Economics

Trump promises to have a lot of internment camps so both legal and illegal immigrants will be deported. This would decimate GDP growth and lift wages dramatically because of the shortage of labour particularly in the agricultural industries. Think wine for example.

He wants to impose tariffs across the board mostly 10% but sometimes 20%. This would have a large effect on inflation both directly when consumer goods and also indirectly because they are intermediate goods. He also wants to impose massive tariffs on all chinese goods.  Same thing here.

The other thing which would occur is the trade war which would eventuate. World trade would be in utter chaos.

Fascism

Does Trump have fascist tendencies, Of course he does. I do not think the problem is him going after opponents . He did this previously with both Clinton and Biden. They did not go forward as his A/Gs told him there was no case.  Lackeys at the Justice Department may manufacture a case but they would have to get past a grand jury and then after that an actual jury. Decent lawyers would point holes in a manufactured case. Showing Trump is going after them would also get the case thrown out. Trump would be relying on people  in the Justice department with no corporate knowledge. It is odds on they would make mistakes. A lot of them.

No what is important are the institutions. The Supreme court has already shown it is in by its absurd decision on Presidential immunity. The time it took to make the decision ensured Trump would never face justice and we can only assume they would make more absurd decisions to help Trump once in power. Trump could play havoc by appointing stooges for other institutions. He could get rid of TV licences for networks critical of him for example

He could set the IRS in people he does not like. Even if there is no offence the time and money involved for people marked would be high

His false electors/ voter fraud did not work last time not because he had no proof but because the margins were so large. Imagine if the result was much much tighter. Although the cases are tossed out it goes all the way to the Supreme court and guess what. Trump is 'elected'.

PACS.

I noticed the Musk PAC in favour of Trump has two adds on Harris confronting voters. To those of palestinian background it highlights her husband's jewish faith. to those of a jewish background it alleges she favours palestinians ( actually Hamas lover indirectly) overs jews. Of course this cannot be right. She is either one thing or the other not both. It is what you would expect of someone who evokes conspiracy theories that are easily disproved!

The Future

If Trump wins it means a completely different political system , think Orban not Putin, where lying is the order of the day. You are betting on the USA being more like Poland than Hungary. It is not something anyone should be betting on. If you change the system you usually do not go back to what you had previously.

Wars

Trump would allow the Israelis to kill whomever in their attempt to wipe out firstly Hamas and then Hizbullah. At present there is no end game for the 'wars'. We do know courtesy of Orban what Trump would so in Ukraine. He would stop all aid and weapons to them allowing russia to take whatever it wants. He might even leave NATO

Just remember last time there was utter chaos  in the Whitehouse.

Whoopsy I forgot to mention all those large numbers of people who worked with Trump who say he should never be anywhere the white house again.

Next if it is Kelly V Trump in who is telling the truth then who was found guilty of fraud, who was in control of a company guilty of fraud, who was found guilty of sexxually assualuting a woman he said he di not. Who falsified documents so no-one would find out he had sex with a porn star four months after his wife had a son.  So courts have found on at least four occasions he lied!

There is simply no choice at all if you are rational and have a brain.

Once more on Israel and the Middle East

 No sane person believes Israel had to do something about Hamas after October7. ( Just before this just remember it was the Israeli intelligence services that enabled Hamas to be in place to begin with. That went well!)

The problem has always been in Gaza and now Lebanon is that they claim to have killed certain operatives whilst completely ignoring the innocent civilians they have killed. The only comeback they have is to query the number of people killed. They cannot in Lebanon as journalists are there unlike Gaza.

I have said previously I do not trust Hamas and I do not trust the Israeli government. As Mediawatch has pointed out the critics of Israel's approach in Gaza are large. Overseas doctors helping there, Aid organisations, palestinian journalists in Gaza etc

I fear Netanyahu does not want to stop for political reasons . He was asleep at the wheel when somehow Hamas was able to get over the border and start murdering will nilly.

It has destroyed any relationship Israel could have in the area for a long time.

Peter Dutton stuffs it up.

 Peter Dutton was interviewed on AM this morning talking about his new housing policy.

Quite a few problems. He wants to build new homes not apartments. This will merely lead to more urban sprawl. Spending on infrastructure does not overcome the negatives of urban sprawl. For example you will have a lot more traffic. It is much harder to drop the kids at school and then go to work as most work in the city. It creates a lot more pollution. Another problem is most young couple buy apartments and then move later on when they are earing more money to a house.

He says the CFMEU has caused costs to rise in building. Hang on the CFMEU are strong in building city blocks in the city and major suburbs not high rise apartments and most certainly not building houses in the suburbs.

He wants to reduce immigration but increase immigration for tradesmen. When pressed on this on what categories would reduce if overall immigration was to fall substantially under him he then said he would introduce better rules for pensioners so they could work more and thus earn more and stil lkeep the pension. Huh. Being a tradie is hard physical work. how many pensioners who were formerly tradies do you think will want to be a tradie again in their late 60s!

This policy has been ill thought through is the best one can describe this.

A few different things

 Elections

Before saturday the Liberals had not been in government for 23 years. That is absurd. The ALP has been in government far too long. It was a bad result!

Queensland has a state election next saturday. The ALP has had 3 successive terms and most of the last 30 years. Again that is far too long. They need to be replaced and that looks on the cards.

Interest rates

A lot of people said the unemployment figures put interest rate cuts off for some time. Labour force figures are LAGGING indicators. Moreover monthly figures are quite volatile.This ignores the fact inflation is falling both at a headline and underlying rate. Various surveys show inflation falling as well. We have a slowing economy fellahs!  

Albo buying a house

Albo bought a house on the Central Coast which is close to his fiancée's  parents. Here is a double standard. Liberals can make money and invest well but not ALP people. This happened to Keating in spades. Capitalism can only apply to the critics apparently.

Trump fraud

Trump tried to sell himself as working at McDonalds but get this. The franchise was closed for the day. the only 'buyers' were carefully selected trump supporters. Unbelievable 

Church and politics

There is almost a tradition in the USA where politicians are allowed into churches and give political speeches.  Harris di it today our time.The church ( which is people who believe in god) is different to the building to where they meet. Even so the building is supposed to be the house of God. You go there to hear the word of God and encourage each other to follow the teachings of Jesus. Listening to a politician is not part of this. It got worse with Trump as it would. In a church he not only swore he got the congregation to swear. What would a person think listening and seeing this!

Around the Traps 18/10/24

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• James Blackwell on the-voice-defeat-set-us-all-back-and-since-then-our-leaders-have-given-up
• Chris Murphy on the-government-spent-twice-what-it-needed-to-on-economic-support-during-covid-modelling-shows
• Adrian Esterman et al on lessons-for-the-next-pandemic-where-did-australia-go-right-and-wrong-in-responding-to-covid
• Paul Strangio on no-the-liberal-party-does-not-have-a-history-of-upholding-the-right-to-protest-in-australia-just-look-back-to-the-vietnam-war
• Sophia Kagan on amid-global-aged-care-labour-shortage-how-will-australia-address-challenge
• Angel Zhong on banning-debit-card-surcharges-could-save-500-million-a-year-if-traders-dont-claw-back-the-money-in-other-ways
• Denis Muller on fair-minded-down-to-earth-and-unusually-gifted-george-negus-dies-at-82
• Priya Chacko on australia-can-t-escape-india-canada-crossfire
• renew economy on making-it-up-as-he-goes-bowen-slams-obriens-plan-to-put-existing-gas-into-capacity-scheme

OZ climate

• rooftop-solar-supplies-more-than-50-per-cent-of-main-grids-power-demand-for-first-time
  
• rooftop-solar-supplies-more-than-50-per-cent-of-main-grids-power-demand-for-first-time
  
• port-of-newcastle-advances-new-precinct-to-become-leading-hub-for-green-hydrogen
  
• giant-wind-farm-behind-barnaby-poo-tickets-outburst-changes-layout-trims-turbine-numbers
  
• massive-renewables-hub-gets-all-clear-from-locals-but-long-distance-activists-complain-about-the-view
  
• how-the-worlds-biggest-isolated-grid-is-dealing-with-the-growing-potential-of-100-pct-wind-and-solar
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on prediction-market-whales
• Menzie Chinn on contextualizing-the-inflationary-impact-of-the-10-60-trump-tariff-plan , guest-contribution-social-security-reform-between-a-cliff-and-a-hard-place
• Selwyn Parker on us-wakes-china-s-latest-threat-big-ships
• Tyler Cowen on the-costs-of-u-s-tariff-imposition
• Ben Mathis-Lilley on us-presidential-election-donald-trump-lies-directionally-accurate
• Angry Bear on what-happens-when-corporate-places-greater-emphasis-on-stock-buybacks-rather-than-quality
• Joel Eissenberg on immigrants-arent-taking-all-the-jobs
• John Quiggin on the-us-just-lost-a-war-and-nobody-noticed
• new deal democrat on household-balance-sheets-are-in-good-shape
• Denis Muller on suicide-for-democracy-what-is-bothsidesism-and-how-is-it-different-from-journalistic-objectivity
• Christian Paz on latinos-trump-harris-immigration-assimilation-conser
• Mark Stern on trump-electoral-college-edge-shrinks-pennsylvania-wisconsin-polls
• Laurence Tribe on where-freedom-ends
• Kevin Drum on notes-on-trumps-bloomberg-interview
• Jeet Heer on harris-strategy-playing-safe-risks
• Jim Newell on ted-cruz-colin-allred-debate-texas-senate-polls
• Alexander Sammon on kamala-harris-fox-news-interview-bret-baier-election
• noahopinion on what-remains-of-the-progressive-project
• Bill Haskell on you-shall-not-pass-voting-in-georgia-and-alabama
• Eric Kramer on can-the-supreme-court-be-trusted-to-call-balls-and-strikes-neil-gorsuch-in-over-ruled-gives-us-one-answer
• the conversable economist on a-surge-in-us-rd-spending

Europe

• Mainly Macro on october-budget-6-thanks-to-truss-bond-market-scare-stories-are-back
• Gordon Weiss on shared-struggle-ukrainians-their-global-supporters-front-lines
• Khang Vu on north-korean-troops-russia-first-test-russia-north-korea-alliance

Asia

• Gemma Ware on what-israel-and-its-neighbours-want-now-as-all-out-war-looms-in-the-middle-east-podcast
• Samuel Voldermarian on israel-has-banned-the-un-secretary-general-is-this-legal-or-right
• Ali Mamouri and Shahram Akbarzadah on with-hezbollah-now-severely-weakened-could-a-threatened-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-bomb
• Abdallah Fayyad on social-security-reform-solvency-trust-fund-trump-harris-plans
• Mohd Yunus on ripple-effects-eu-deforestation-laws-southeast-asia
• Wenting Hu and Wesley Wedmaier on chinas-government-is-about-to-spend-big-on-stimulus-can-it-turn-around-the-countrys-sluggish-economy
• Angeline Tan and Yanitha Louis on malaysia-s-asean-chairmanship-catalyst-not-panacea
• Joost Hiltermann on the-path-to-regional-war-israel-iran

Wonk

• Tim Harford on what-we-can-and-cant-say-about-what-we-do-and-dont-know
• noahopinion on against-steelmanning , a-nobel-for-the-big-big-questions
• Andrew Dowdy et al on why-hurricanes-like-milton-in-the-us-and-cyclones-in-australia-are-becoming-more-intense-and-harder-to-predict
• Alex Tabarrok on acemoglu-johnson-and-robinson-win-nobel-for-institutions-and-prosperity
• the conversable economist on a-nobel-for-acemoglu-johnson-and-robinson-institutions-and-prosperity
• John Hawkins on a-new-book-reveals-much-of-trumps-success-is-based-on-a-myth-he-is-a-self-made-billionaire
• Tyler Cowen on the-early-history-of-peer-review

General

• Anna Fiveash on can-listening-to-music-make-you-more-productive-at-work
• Trevor Ireland on new-research-shows-most-space-rocks-crashing-into-earth-come-from-a-single-source

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-plant-food
• moyhu on when-regression-doesnt-work-florida
• renew economy on worlds-biggest-wind-turbine-26-mw-rolls-off-production-line-in-china , global-shift-to-renewables-has-quickened-but-still-not-fast-enough-to-meet-crucial-climate-goals , solar-and-batteries-steal-the-show-but-world-needs-more-renewables-quickly-to-meet-1-5c-target
• and Then Theres Risk on climate-risk
• ocean acidification on carbonate-system-and-acidification-of-the-adriatic-sea

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-interactions-paradox-in-statistics
  
• she-wants-to-know-what-are-best-practices-on-flagging-bad-responses-and-cleaning-survey-data-and-detecting-bad-responses-any-suggestions-from-the-tidyverse-or-crunch-io
  
• where-have-all-the-count-words-gone-in-defense-of-fewer-and-among
  
• pitfalls-of-demographic-forecasts-of-us-elections
  
• things-are-getting-so-politically-polarized-we-cant-measure-how-politically-polarized-things-are-getting
  
• here-is-the-data-sharing-statement
  
• here-is-the-data-sharing-statement-in-its-entirety-for-goodwin-gm-aaronson-st-alvarez-o-et-al-single-dose-psilocybin-for-a-treatment-resistant-episode-of-major-depression-n-engl-j-med-doi-10
  
• controversy-over-recently-honored-claims-in-the-paper-the-colonial-origins-of-comparative-development
  
• columbia-surgery-prof-fake-data-update-yes-hes-still-being-promoted-on-the-university-webpage
  
• freakometrics on how to go beyond the coldness of numbers and take action , can extreme risks be diversified
• Kaiser Fung on nobody-likes-seeing-the-dentist

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• who-holds-sovereign-debt-and-why-it-matters
  
• supply-chain-shortages-large-firms-market-power-and-inflation
  
• macroeconomic-implications-recent-surge-immigration-eu
  
• sovereign-emissions-circumstances-versus-effort
  
• key-issues-economic-analysis-increasingly-turbulent-security-environment
  
• hidden-profits-lost-jobs-link-between-tax-havens-and-employment
  
• role-borrowing-rise-gilt-yields-during-truss-episode-and-some-possible-implications
  
• rise-sovereign-bank-nexus-risks-developing-economies
  
• cross-gold-brazilian-treasure-and-decline-portugal
  
• economists-should-point-their-attention-stars
  

Israel again

 The USA is threatening to withdraw arments to Israel unless aid is allowed into Gaza. Hmm

no-one denied Israel to take action against Hamas after October 7. HOWEVER Israel has made no attempt to insulate  civilians in this endeavour. In other words they are using collective punishment. This is a war crime.

It gets worse. They have bombed hospitals and schools. When russia does this we are in uproar but not when Israel does it and kills more people.

It targets journalists, It fires on peacekeepers.  Israel is in a bad place.

It needs to listen to its friends and not be stubborn or it will end up with very few friends and help Hams achieve its aim

A lament on US Politics

 Sorry but I am going all over the place on this.

If Trump wins then what will Democrats do? I suspect they will brazenly lie just like Trump and the republicans are doing now. If you think US elections are bad now just wait for that. The important thing to remember here is facts do not matter. People do not believe them!

Joe Scarborough is correct. This election will be a vote on whether lies are effective or not and thus whether voters have standards or not.

I know evangelical is a different term in the USA. It does not mean they read the bible nor that they regard the bible as God's word and nor do they go to church. Indeed it is another way to say you vote republican but I shall engage them anyway. God does not approve of lies. He hates lies. It isn't hard to read the bible to find this out. On the other hand Satan is the father of all liars. If Trump lies there is no tomorrow then it is pretty clear Trump is not doing God's work.  Lying about hurricane relief is just moral depravity full stop.

I read everywhere that polling underestimated Trump's vote in 2016 and 2020. I also read how voter's main concerns are economic. Hang on have we forgotten about 2022 where polling vastly overestimated the republican vote. Just remember inflation was far more worse then. Abortion was a major issue. It is this time around.

All surveys are within the margin of error and I suspect one person is in front for a comfortable victory but we cannot see this at present. Just think about this. A man who is a convicted criminal , who led a insurrection to ensure he illegally stayed in power and brazenly lies every day each day is neck and neck in the race!

I also wish to issue a mea culpa. I said previously once people saw how 'bad' Trump was at rallies his vote would slip. He is obviously in poor mental condition (euphemism) however it doesn't matter. It is just like his lies. Some people just don't care. Without wishing to invoke godwin's law republican voters are acting a lotl ike voters in Germany between the wars. They like dictators.( They actually approve of Putin more than Biden!)

some suggestions for the ABC

 The ABC is looking for some radio presenters. Richard Glover has run a very successful afternoon program on what I call 2BL in Sydney for some 20 years. He is leaving. Patricia Karvelas is leaving radio national breakfast. She was much better on afternoons than mornings.

Here are two suggestions.

Pur Hamish McDonald on radio national breakfast. He has done it in the past when the incumbent went on holidays and as I have said in the past he clearly has been superior. Make him permeant!

You need someone with personality on afternoons. Ellen Fanning has it in spades and her sense of humour is infectious. Chis Bath is very similar but she does not want a fulltime gig.

There you go ABC and I won't charge a fee!

A bit of this and a bit of that

 Problems in Marles office

The Chief of Staff is no longer working in Richard Marles office. She has accused staff of bullying her. come again. She was the boss. How can a boss be the recipient of bullying? Why has no-one asked this obvious question? Is it because she is a woman. It is a  long time since I walked the corridors of power but bullying and being a chief of staff went almost hand in hand in a Minister's office. Peta Credlin for example was accused of being a bully. I find this as basic journalism has not been applied to it. case to be very troublesome.

October7 anniversary

You cannot delete the deaths that have occurred because of the 'war' which was declared by Israel from the october7 massacre. No-one is suggesting Hamas being allowed back into power but the obvious question that Israel and its supports never wil aanswer is how many palestinian deaths are appropriate until the 'war' is finished. By the wat unless Israel is permanently asleep on the job another october 7 is impossible

Corrowa

We has several hundred white people want white supremacy. I suspect covid has allowed these people come out od the rock they were hiding under and go public with their racist beliefs. Hopefully this wil lnot persist.

Around the Traps 11/10/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Carol Johnston on failure-to-launch-why-the-albanese-government-is-in-trouble
• Grant Wyeth on does-finland-s-total-defence-doctrine-hold-lessons-australia
• John Quiggin on assessing-albanese-an-annotated-list
• Daniel Flitton on peter-varghese-constraining-china
• croaking cassandra on divisiveness-and-democracy , central-bank-policy-communications
• David Tuffley on the-australian-government-has-introduced-new-cyber-security-laws-heres-what-you-need-to-know
• Andrew Norton on international-student-caps-are-set-to-pass-parliament-ushering-in-a-new-era-of-bureaucratic-control

OZ Climate

• australias-largest-operating-wind-farm-sends-first-power-to-sunshine-state-grid
  
• renewable-penetration-record-falls-for-third-time-this-week-on-australias-main-grid
  
• origin-joins-green-hydrogen-exodus-dumps-risky-hunter-project-to-focus-on-renewables-storage
  
• coal-town-to-battery-base-firm-keen-to-make-regional-power-move
  
• one-of-australias-oldest-coal-generators-refused-bank-guarantees-operating-status-under-threat
  
• australias-big-battery-fleet-now-making-more-money-from-arbitrage-than-frequency-control
  
• we-cant-afford-to-fall-back-on-gas-to-fill-duttons-nuclear-gap
  
• coalition-claims-of-a-nuclear-power-renaissance-in-uk-further-expose-its-shameless-policy-con
  
• Peter Hannan on australias-coal-mines-and-gas-fields-may-be-emitting-twice-as-much-methane-as-declared-report-warns
• Ken Parish on nuclear-power-nirvana-or-nonsense
• Graham Readfearn on andrew-forrest-says-net-zero-is-fantasy-so-his-goal-is-real-zero-what-does-he-mean-and-can-he-achieve-it

Northern America

• institutional economics on maganomics-as-negative-supply-shock
• Brad De Long on prosperity-since-1900 , two-cheers-for-nate-silver-and-co , the-feds-year-ago-achieved-soft-landing
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-call-republican-justices-republicans
• Dahlia Lithwick on supreme-court-2024-election-plans
• noahopinion on lets-evaluate-kamala-harris-entire-economic -program , let-us-pause-to-appreciate-the-remarkable-US-economy , the-democrats-are-a-strong-party-the-republicans-are-a-weak-party , in-which-i-rebut-nate-silver-on-the-economy
• Lydia Khalil on trump-would-put-personality-over-policy-middle-east 
• Zachary Basu on trump-election-loss-republican-future
• Daniel Dale on politics/fact-check-trump-helene-response-north-carolina
• Mick Ryan on kamala-harris-ukraine-us-truly-committed-ukrainian-victory
• Peter Martin on from-mass-deportations-to-huge-tariff-hikes-heres-what-trumps-economic-program-would-do-to-the-us-and-australia
• Czeslaw Tubilewicz on governor-tim-walz-minnesota-s-relations-china
• Li Zhou on trump-hurricane-helene-fema-lies-debunked
• Umair Irfan on disaster-accountability-fema
• David Graham on trump-believability-gap
• Tom Nicholls on george-washington-nightmare-donald-trump
• David Reynolds on grant-vs-the-klan-soldier-of-destiny-ulysses-s-grant
• Tyler Cowen on joshua-rauh-on-fiscal-sustainability
• Mark Stern on clarence-thomas-kill-richard-glossip-supreme-court-arguments
• Jim Newell on hurricane-milton-helene-greene-musk-trump-fema-democrats-biden-harris
• Adam Tooze on hurricane-milton-helene-greene-musk-trump-fema-democrats-biden-harris.html
• the victory zone on update-new-ca-qsr-min-wage-study-a-victory-lap Thanks Brad
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on the-polity-that-is-russia-2
• Mainly Macro on why-are-conservatives-ignoring-the-median-voter
• Jennifer Parker on black-sea-battle-learning-right-maritime-lessons-ukraine

Asia

• Sussanah Patton on marking-time-asean-summit-laos
• Eyal Mayroz on a-year-of-devastation-with-hope-and-trust-shattered-what-can-bring-an-end-to-the-violence-in-israel-palestine
• Imad El-Anis on israeli-invasion-could-push-an-already-unstable-lebanon-over-the-edge-into-total-state-collapse
• Robert Grenier on israel-gaza-hezbollah-palestinians-netanyahu-iran-deterrence-occupation
• Eyal Mayroz on a-year-of-devastation-with-hope-and-trust-shattered-what-can-bring-an-end-to-the-violence-in-israel-palestine
• Joshua Keating on gaza-occupation-forever-war-israel
• Craig Mark on why-did-japans-new-leader-trigger-snap-elections-only-a-week-after-taking-office-and-what-happens-next
• Aryeh Neier on torture-in-israels-prisons
• Bernard Avishai on the-lede/why-netanyahu-wont-cease-fire
• CLM on china-s-economy-has-peaked-can-beijing-redefine-its-goals Thanks Brad
• Drezners world on big-developments-in-the-middle-east Thanks Brad
• Chietigh Bajpayee on india-s-never-ending-quest-global-status

Wonk

• Tim Harford on what-we-can-and-cant-say-about-what-we-do-and-dont-know
• sandwichman on three-fragments-rebooted-unfettering
• Joel Eisenberg on autocracy-will-bring-poverty
• noahopinion on what-if-everyone-is-wrong-about-what-AI-does
• Chris Armstrong on philosophy-public-affairs-is-not-dead-yet
• Mathew Sharpe on what-are-the-limits-of-free-speech-we-may-have-arrived-at-them
• Ian Hill on whither-the-brics
• the conversable economist on politically-homeless-in-the-land-of-economics , interview-with-paul-krugman-economic-geography-and-mysteries-of-productivity
• Tyler Cowen on how-economists-think-about-victims-of-natural-disasters
• Paul Griffin on one-of-sciences-greatest-achievements-how-the-rapid-development-of-covid-vaccines-prepares-us-for-future-pandemics
• Alex Tabarrok on the-economic-way-of-thinking-in-a-pandemic

General

• Jeremy Day on new-video-shows-sharks-making-an-easy-meal-of-spiky-sea-urchins-shedding-light-on-an-undersea-mystery
• Laura Drieseen on daylight-saving-is-about-to-start-but-why-do-the-days-get-longer

Climate

• real climate on cold-extremes-do-in-fact-decrease-under-global-warming
• skeptical science on you-wont-escape-climate-crisis , climate-made-helenes-rainfall-more-severe
• Thomas Newsome and William Ripple on unprecedented-peril-disaster-lies-ahead-as-we-track-towards-2-7-c-of-warming-this-century
• renew economy on global-shift-to-renewables-has-quickened-but-still-not-fast-enough-to-meet-crucial-climate-goals

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• elife-press-release-deterministic-thinking-led-to-a-nonsensical-statement
  
• salesses-some-writing-exercises-meant-to-help-students-with-various-elements-of-craft
  
• some-references-and-discussions-on-the-foundations-of-probability-not-the-math-so-much-as-its-connection-to-the-real-world-including-the-claim-that-praliens-exist-on-neptune-that-can-rap-battle
  
• honesty-and-transparency-are-not-enough-politics-edition
  
• a-quick-simulation-to-demonstrate-the-wild-variability-of-p-values
  
• defining-statistical-models-in-jax
  
• resp
  
• inaccurate_new_york
  
• update-on-that-politically-loaded-paper-published-in-demography-that-i-characterized-as-a-hack-job-further-post-publication-review
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-narrow-path-from-votes-of-despair
  
• Constance Grady on ta-nehisi-coates-the-message-review
• Tyler Cowen on the-value-of-books-on-tractors , what-ive-been-reading
• Ken Parish on house-of-grief
• Brad De Long on time-to-write-my-negative-review-of-Nate-Silvers-new-book

vox wonk

• international-trade-and-macroeconomic-dynamics-sanctions
  
• sharing-news-left-and-right
  
• underlying-inflation-zooming-goods-versus-services
  
• climate-beliefs-and-asset-prices
  
• spillovers-emerging-markets-and-investor-heterogeneity
  
• picture-income-inequality-and-middle-classes-across-eu
  
• war-and-transnational-reshoring
  
• addressing-banks-vulnerability-runs-part-1-facts-arguments-and-policy-challenges
  
• sino-eu-battery-electric-vehicle-dispute-mixing-tariff-and-non-tariff-measures
  
• hidden-giant-how-official-statistics-underestimate-true-scale-global-services-trade
  
• addressing-banks-vulnerability-runs-part-2-policy-options