Around the Traps 4/10/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• nervous laughter on a-rick-by-the-same-name-smells-of-deceit Thanks Nick
• Michael Fullilove on how-australia-should-deal-trump
• croaking cassandra on inquiring-into-banking
• Peter Martin on more-than-430-000-australians-could-have-owned-their-own-home-today-if-not-for-7-prime-ministers-inaction
• James Cross on oil-prices-set-to-rise-as-middle-east-tensions-worsen-adding-to-cost-of-living-crisis

OZ climate

• australias-biggest-wind-farm-proposed-to-fill-gap-as-last-coal-generators-exit-grid
  
• south-australia-sets-spectacular-new-records-for-wind-solar-and-negative-demand
  
• coal-generators-are-learning-how-to-shut-down-for-solar-in-significant-boost-to-renewable-switch
  
• Mandy Freund on australia-may-be-facing-another-la-nina-summer-weve-found-a-way-to-predict-them-earlier-to-help-us-prepare
• Milton Speer and Lance Lelie on new-research-reveals-why-the-mighty-darling-river-is-drying-up-and-its-not-just-because-were-taking-too-much-water
• Adam Morton on amid-australias-chaotic-climate-politics-the-rooftop-solar-boom-is-an-unlikely-triumph

Northern America

• Michael Podhorser on trump-harris-polls-undecided-voters
• lawyers guns money on when-der-sturmer-meets-benny-hill Thanks Brad
• McKay Coppins on mitt-romney-trump Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-what-we-now-know-about-jimmy-carters-presidency , guest-contribution-the-federal-funds-rate-fomc-projections-policy-rule-prescriptions-and-futures-market-predictions-from-the-september-2024-meeting
• Robert Waldmann on us-10-year-interest-rates
• Zeesham Aleem on jared-kushner-private-equity-firm-affinity-senate-investigation
• Jenny Gordon on kamala-harris-trade-better-alternative-not-much
• Shirin Ali on jack-smith-evidence-against-trump-public-2024
• Philip Johnson on mexico-has-a-trailblazing-new-president-but-does-she-have-any-new-ideas-to-tackle-spiralling-crime
• Roland Rajah on trumpian-economic-nationalism-not-what-world-or-america-needs
• Bill Haskell on manufactured-evidence-of-voter-fraud
• Kevin Drum on breaking-trump-says-kamala-is-a-faker
• Brad De Long on crosspost-kimberly-clausing-piie
• Dylan Scott on us-health-insurance-plans-medicare-medicaid
• Richard Hasen on trump-election-interference-trial-jack-smith-brief-supreme-court-failure
• David Frum on jd-vance-debate-reinvents
• David Dayen on donald-trump-doesnt-know-what-donald-trump-is-doing thanks Brad
• Glenn Kirschner on trump-immunity-jack-smith-brief-trial-redactions
• Alex Tabarrok on tariffs-hurt-manufacturing

Europe

• Christoph Bluth on ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-ups-the-ante-on-his-nuclear-blackmail-the-big-question-is-how-the-west-will-respond
• mainly macro on october-budget-5-uks-fiscal-rules-one-good-one-bad
• Mick Ryan on trump-may-surprise-us-ukraine-war
• Gary Young on scapegoating-the-immigrant-gary-younge

Asia

• institutional economics on china-syndrome-why-fiscal-stimulus-won't-cut-it
• Mirelle Rebeiz on does-hezbollah-represent-lebanon-and-what-impact-will-the-death-of-longtime-leader-hassan-nasrallah-have
• Adam Estes on hezbollah-lebanon-israel-hamas-palestine-gaza-iran-militia-group
• Ian Parmeter on benjamin-netanyahu-is-triumphant-after-hassan-nasrallahs-assassination-but-will-it-change-anything
• Mohammed Mhawish on israels-closure-al-jazeeras-ramallah-office-sends-chilling-message
• Sam Roggeveen on trump-asian-security
• Amin Saikal on israel-has-a-history-of-unsuccessful-invasions-of-lebanon-will-this-time-be-any-different
• Stacie Goddard on power-asia-pivots-paper-tigers-regional-poles
• Shahram Akbarzadeh on irans-leaders-have-everything-to-lose-in-a-direct-war-with-israel-why-take-such-a-massive-risk
• Peter Balonon-Rosen and Sean Rameswaram on hezbollah-israel-lebanon-airstrike-hassan-nasrallah
• Ikhtizard Ahmed on a-new-chapter-for-bangladesh
• Drezners world on big-developments-in-the-middle-east Thanks Brad
• Ran Porat on the-long-feared-middle-east-war-is-here-this-is-how-israel-could-now-hit-back-at-iran
• Ambika Vishwanath and Ruth Gamble on parting-waters-india-v-pakistan
• Richard McGregor on trump-win-splits-east-asian-triangle

Wonk

• yaw on economic-and-geopolitical-history-of-uganda Thanks Brad
• Chinchih Chen et al on Privacy-Regulation-and-Firm-Performance Thanks Brad
• Ravi Joseph on is-there-a-deep-state Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on misinformed-about-misinformation
• noahopinion on once-again-imports-do-not-subtract-from-GDP , make-work-is-not-the-future-of-work
• the conversable economist on the-physicality-of-technology-the-high-frequency-trading-example
• Saam Roggeveen on chinese-subs-american-spies-both-get-sinking-feeling
• Tyler Cowen on the-dominance-of-large-factor-models-in-finance
• Eric Schiesser on on-robert-owen-and-the-history-of-experiments-in-living
• Tyler Cowen on economic-journal-watch-new-issue , incentives-matter-the-demand-curve-slopes-downward-mental-health-edition

General

• Noor Noman on maggie-smith-dies-89-downton-abbey
• Gordon Lister on why-is-mount-everest-so-big-new-research-highlights-a-rogue-river-but-deeper-forces-are-at-work
• Brad Tucker on scientists-have-found-carbon-dioxide-on-plutos-largest-moon-offering-clues-about-how-it-formed

Climate

• nuttin

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• 3-levels-of-fraud-one-time-linear-and-exponential
  
• fake-stories-in-purported-nonfiction
  
• pete-rose
  
• wb
  
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-41-the-lesser-evil , know-your-data-.42

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-welcome-application-of-good-sense-to-ai-hype
  
• Brad De Long on review-galloping-through-history
• Andrew Gelman on hudson
• Joel Eissenberg on the-achilles-trap

Vox Wonk

• organised-crime-violence-and-support-state
  
• banks-should-lock-profits-buffers-rainy-days
  
• mind-gap-gauging-fiscal-monetary-tensions-through-fiscal-r-star
  
• politicisation-social-responsibility
  
• addressing-lingering-effects-colonial-influence-educational-institutions
  
• how-machine-learning-aiding-fight-against-mafia-infiltration-italy
  
• banks-climate-commitments-and-green-transition
  
• revisiting-signalling-channel-quantitative-easing
  
• measuring-economic-losses-caused-climate-change
  
• state-dependent-exchange-rate-pass-through
  

October 7 is no time for pro-palestinians to protest

 October 7 was a horrific day for jews as it was the day Hamas murders killed in cold blood wel lover 1000 jews. Just let that sink in.

It doesn't matter how many days you have been protesting on behalf of palestinians only a complete moron would so so on october 7.

Indeed demonstrating on october 7  is giving de-facto support to the Hamas killing spree.

It seems to me the leaders of pro-palestinians are doing anything that might reduce support for their cause. Wake up!

the Middle East

 Well it is not looking good.

For reasons  unfathomable to me ( if you rule up political reasons)  Israel has ramped up what it has been doing in Lebanon.  Murdering the leader of Hezbollah is a big thing. ( Notice again they did not care about how many innocents would be killed in that event). The killing of quite a few people in leadership roles in hezbollah says a lot as well. firstly it says Israeli intelligence is very good now after its failure on October 7. Secondly it puts any current leader in a difficult position. They must hide to maintain their life and this must interfere with doing their job well. 

Few people would shed tears for anyone killed in hezbollah however again we have to ask what Israel's end game is.  After their previous war with hezbollah they surely would not want to fight well armed and trained troops again since they di get a bloody nose If we look to Gaza we can conclude after almost a year there is no end plan. This looks to be the case in Lebanon.

If it was Hamas's aim to isolate Israel in the area and even the world they have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. On the other hand a two state solution looks impossible. Gaza is rubble and over 750,000 israelis illegally live in the West Bank. They will not leave!

No-one can destroy Israel. They have over 200 nukes. Hamas attack was a fluke because of extreme incompetence on Israel's part and we can be confident it won't occur again. 

Israel needs an official peace and official relations with nations in the Middle East however it is  unlikely even in the antti-democratic middle east leaders would seek this given their populations would be strongly against this.

I cannot be optimistic about the Middle East