Around the Traps 31/5/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Chris Richardson on there-s-a-super-sized-hole-in-the-budget-here-s-why Thanks Nick
• croaking cassandra on underwhelming
• Peter Martin on top-economists-give-budget-modest-rating-and-doubt-inflation-will-fall-as-planned , stand-by-for-a-pay-rise-on-top-of-a-tax-cut-heres-why-things-will-feel-better-from-july
• Ross Gittins on politicians-dont-control-migrant-numbers-and-usually-don't-want-to , the-pollies-have-twigged-that-our-crazy-housing-game-can't-go-on , australias-future-to-be-made-under-treasurys-watchful-eye
• Greg Jericho on sticky-inflation-is-not-falling-but-its-not-rising-either-why-should-that-mean-another-rba-rate-hike
• William Leben and Tom Richardson on conscription-doesn-t-work-for-australia

OZ Climate

• Graham Readfearn on coalitions-brave-nuke-world-a-much-harder-sell-after-new-csiro-report
• Aston Brown on macintyre-turbines-queensland-southern-downs-windfarm-largest-southern-hemisphere
• Bill Hare on sleight-of-hand-australias-net-zero-target-is-being-lost-in-accounting-tricks-offsets-and-more-gas
• Gabrielle Kuiper on outdated-regulation-local-electricity-networks-leaves-australians-exposed-risk
• engie-offers-1000-energy-bill-rebates-to-neighbours-of-wind-and-solar-projects
  
• offshore-wind-was-born-in-the-70s-oil-crisis-it-comes-to-australia-in-the-climate-crisis
  
• germany-energy-giant-presses-go-on-australias-first-eight-hour-big-battery
  
• eraring-deal-a-smarter-way-to-keep-prices-down-would-be-to-build-more-wind-and-solar
  
• wind-and-solar-drought-first-new-renewable-projects-join-grid-after-six-month-hiatus
  
• snowy-2-0s-updated-business-case-is-flawed-again
  
• andrew-forrest-plans-massive-2gw-wind-and-solar-project-backed-by-gigawatt-scale-12-hour-battery
  
• new-wind-output-record-breaks-drought-that-posed-most-challenging-week-for-renewable-model
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on is-neoliberalism-to-blame-for-donald-trump
• Molly Omstead on alito-flag-appeal-to-heaven-supreme-court-christian-nationalism-jan-6
• Ian Millhiser on the-comstock-act-the-long-dead-law-trump-could-use-to-ban-abortion-explained , supreme-court-alito-ethics-recusal-insurrection-flags
• noahopinion on the-case-of-the-angry-history-postdoc
• Eric Levitz on one-explanation-for-the-2024-elections-biggest-mystery
• Dahlia Lithwick on appeal-to-heaven-flag-is-originalism
• David Appell on surging-heat-deaths-in-americas-hottest-city
• Jordan Rubin on trump-gag-order-judge-aileen-cannon-classified-documents
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on samuel-alito-flag-letter-january-6-cases-wife-martha-ann
• Franklin Foer on wolves-of-k-street-book-review-lobbying
• the conversable economist on selling-plasma-and-personal-finances
• Jeet Heer on trump-putin-netanyahu-october-surprise , saudi-arabia-9-11-us-foreign-policy
• off message on hush-money-trial-isnt-helping-trump Thanks Brad
• Eugene Chan and Ali Gohary on trump-found-guilty-in-hush-money-trial-but-will-it-hurt-him-in-the-polls-heres-why-voters-often-overlook-the-ethical-failings-of-politicians
• Andrew Prokop on trump-convicted-felon-elections
• Heather Richardson on ive-shown-you-who-i-am-and-trump-has-shown-you-who-he-is
• Katie Phang on alvin-bragg-trump-case-legal-theory
• Sassan Glasser on the-revisionist-history-of-the-trump-trial-has-already-begun

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on strong-links-vs-weak-links
• Daniel Zetland on putins-casualties-in-the-war-with-ukraine
• stumbling and mumbling on starmers-stability-promise
• Andrew Reid on eu-carbon-market-leadership-held-back-weak-pricing

Asia

• Colin Irwin on as-international-support-for-an-independent-palestine-grows-heres-what-israelis-and-palestinians-now-think-of-the-two-state-solution
• James Chin on malaysia-sarawak-secession
• noahopinion on a-pivotal-moment-for-japans-national-defence
• Aviroop Gupta on how-narendra-modis-cult-of-personality-was-formed-by-a-powerful-hindu-nationalist-group-with-a-dark-history
• Zack Beauchamp on the-slaughter-in-rafah-and-israels-moral-nadir , india-election-2024-explainer-narendra-modi-bjp
• Juki Trinh on water-woes-cambodia-vietnam-clash-over-funan-techo-canal
• Aryeh Neier on counting-the-dead-in-gaza
• Yanitha Louis and Jaideep Singh on does-india-s-act-east-policy-matter-southeast-asia
• Khang Vu on balloons-sky-north-korea-keeps-its-feet-ground
• 
  

Wonk

• Tim Harford on fossil-fuels-could-have-been-left-in-the-dust-25-years-ago
• Hugh Breakey on  why-is-the-gaza-war-tearing-us-apart
• Roland Rajah on what-do-biden-s-big-new-china-tariffs-mean-global-development
• Kalicharan Singam on remember-al-qaeda-danger-hasn-t-gone-away
• Tyler Cowen on david-friedman-on-his-father-milton
• Jennifer Jackett on cultural-change-needed-align-security-economics
• the conversable economist on development-policies-with-the-best-benefit-cost-ratios
• Alex Tabarrok on deadly-precaution
• Brad De Long on economists-like-me-have-a-non-standard-conception-of-how-we-should-use-the-p-word
• Dirk Cotze on south-africans-go-to-the-polls-to-choose-a-new-government-whats-different-this-time
• noahopinion on happy-fun-cold-war-2-update
• Philip Zelikow on confronting-another-axis-history-humility-and-wishful-thinking Thanks Brad
• Chris Bertram on avoiding-people-because-of-what-you-suspect-they-might-think

General

• Katherine Baliala on honk-these-monkeys-have-truly-legendary-noses-now-we-better-understand-why-they-evolved
• Khayla Steele and Jill Newby on whats-the-difference-between-shyness-and-social-anxiety

Climate

• David Appell on global-warming-over-land-now-up-to-3f
• the conversable economist on all-three-sides-of-the-global-energy-challenge
• Rebecca McGirr et al on heavy-water-how-melting-ice-sheets-and-pumped-groundwater-can-lower-local-sea-levels-and-boost-them-elsewhere
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-eu-carbon-border-adjustment-could-facilitate-a-global-climate-solution
• Albert Silvestre et al on buried-kelp-seaweed-carried-to-the-deep-sea-stores-more-carbon-than-we-thought
• ocean acidification on tipping-point-study-finds-worlds-oceans-face-irreversible-damage , does-climate-change-increase-the-risk-of-marine-toxins-insights-from-changing-seawater-conditions
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-hurricane-and-global-warming
• Mark Gongloff on phoenix-is-facing-a-deadly-hurricane-katrina-of-heat-spurred-by-climate-change Thanks Brad
• David Schissell and Dennis Warmstead on small-modular-reactors-are-still-too-expensive-too-slow-and-too-risky

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• break-it-to-grok-it-the-best-way-to-understand-how-a-method-works-is-go-construct-scenarios-where-it-fails
  
• is-there-a-balance-to-be-struck-between-simple-hierarchical-models-and-more-complex-hierarchical-models-that-augment-the-simple-frameworks-with-more-modeled-interactions-when-analyzing-real-data
  
• dan-luu-asks-why-do-people-post-on-bad-platform-instead-of-good-platform
  
• three-takes-on-the-columbia-university-protests
  
• simulation-from-a-baseline-model-as-a-way-of-better-understanding-your-data-this-is-what-hypothesis-testing-should-be
  
• whassup-with-those-economists-who-predicted-a-recession-that-then-didnt-happen
  
• freakometrics on the indispensable and controversial use of artificial intelligence

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Sam Roggeveen on economics-strategy
• Mainly Macro on inside-macroeconomic-policy-blunder
• Brad De Long on hamiltons-scheme
• Justin Brown on fibs-squibs-trading-digs

Vox Wonk

• russian-economy-war-footing-new-reality-financed-commodity-exports
  
• origins-national-identity-german-nation-building-after-napoleon
  
• large-broad-based-macroeconomic-and-financial-effects-natural-disasters
  
• unemployment-risk-portfolio-choice-and-racial-wealth-gap
  
• lost-green-transition-measurement-and-stylised-facts
  
• commodity-transmission-channel-monetary-policy-and-inflation-dynamics
  
• gradual-expansion-eu-economy-ahead-time-tackle-fiscal-challenges
  
• entering-during-economic-crisis-labour-market-trajectories-young-indian-workers
  
• gradual-expansion-eu-economy-ahead-time-tackle-fiscal-challenges
  
• how-family-planning-policies-shape-intergenerational-mobility
  
• why-so-many-crises-happen-when-we-know-why-they-happen-and-how-prevent-them
  

Another view on Immigration

 My view on the  current controversy is vastly different to most.

If you grant citizenship to anyone then it should be they are equivalent to some like me who was born here. If anyone who is a citizen commits' a crime they serve their time and then following serving that sentence get on with their life. 

If you believe that you can then deport a person  who was granted citizenship then you are saying tow different forms of citizenship. Bear in mind you could have a case like the man with Serbian parents who was here from his 2nd birthday. He was sent to Serbia despite not being able to speak the language, not being to access any government benefits, not having any job. The Serbian government eventually piled on so much pressure we were forced to have him back.

In essence if you grant citizenship then that should be it. You should not ship them out anywhere. They are our problem not another countries!

Ukraine is fighting Russia with one arm behind its back

 Russia can use its artillery to pound Ukraine cities with impunity because Joe Biden told Ukraine they cannot attack anywhere in Russia.

It is ridiculous. It is why Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine. The penny has apparently dropped. Britain told Ukraine it can send the missiles it gave Ukraine anywhere it wants, NATO is changing its mind as well. Only the USA needs to change its mind.

Ukraine needs to pound Russian forces that are close to its border. They might want to target assets much further inside Russia. They must be able to do this if it is to win.

The West should allow Ukraine to fight as any country would if it were invaded.

Why are people surprised

 An Israeli bombing mission in Gaza went badly wrong. Why are people surprised? This has been occurring on a regular basis since October 7.

It is occurring because Israel do not care how many palestinians are killed whilst they go after Hamas. They do not care because they, like Hamas, dismiss their enemies  humanity. They also do not care because they have no other strategy.

Israel have every right to go after Hamas but they must do it in a way innocent people are not killed. It is impossible to believe those many thousands of women and children killed thus far are part of Hamas's murderous exploits.

Trump will only accept the vote if he wins

 I am stating the obvious that Trump will  only accept one result in the Presidential election however I have not read anywhere he will get the Republic party to support him in this en masse if he loses.

A Trump loss means all his prosecutions will continue and he does look cactus in them. That means gaol time everyone.

Unlike last time Trump cannot live with this so prepare for absolute chaos if he loses. Unlike last time I suspect the Supreme court will favour Trump.

Republicans are already casting aspersions on the whole legal process. Imagine what would happen if Democrats do not accept partisan rulings. Third world country anyone

Around the Traps 24/5/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• plurality of words on whats-really-at-stake-in-the-debate-over-financing-higher-education Thanks Nick
• Grace Stanhope on australia-increasingly-spending-around-not-development
• Alan Renwick on australia-is-set-to-ban-live-sheep-exports-what-will-this-mean-for-the-industry
• Ross Gittins on how-budget-was-hijacked-by-300-cherry-on-top , we-need-to-talk-sense-about-immigration , treasury-tells-all-how-housing-market-is-so-stuffed-up
• Kevin Bonham on budget-week-rolling-poll-roundup
• Mark the Ballot on may-polling-update
• Antony Green on why-there-wont-be-an-early-election-in-2024
• Tom Barber on putting-dollars-behind-all-tools-statecraft
• Peter McDonald on peter-dutton-wants-to-cut-migration-for-the-sake-of-housing-heres-why-thats-not-a-good-idea
• croaking cassandra on a-puzzle
• Greg Jericho on jobseeker-centrelink-welfare-inequality

OZ Climate

• nuclear-option-costs-six-times-more-than-renewables-study-finds
  
• big-batteries-given-more-freedom-on-the-grid-to-store-solar-for-evening-demand-peaks
  
• battery-and-transmission-delays-give-nsw-pretext-to-extend-eraring
  
• plans-unveiled-for-massive-3-5-billion-wind-and-solar-powered-green-iron-plan-for-queensland
  
• australia-can-learn-from-the-american-experience-with-nuclear-power
  
• renewables-and-storage-still-cheapest-option-nuclear-too-slow-and-costly-in-australia-csiro
  
• battery-and-transmission-delays-give-nsw-pretext-to-extend-eraring
  
• rooftop-solar-incentives-without-battery-storage-are-no-longer-fit-for-purpose
  
• eraring-coal-closure-delayed-two-years-to-keep-the-lights-on
  
• cefc-makes-biggest-investment-yet-to-help-close-looming-gaps-in-nsw-grid
  
• new-sun-cable-takes-shape-with-12gw-of-wind-added-to-worlds-biggest-renewable-project
  
• latest-snowy-2-0-business-case-a-surprise-but-batteries-might-eat-its-lunch
  
• Graham Readfearn on australia-nuclear-power-plants-csiro-peter-dutton-liberal-coalition-plan
• Kyle Turner on will-government-investment-make-green-hydrogen-a-reality-in-australia
• Dylan McConnell on scaremongering-wont-keep-australias-lights-on-picking-up-the-pace-of-energy-transition-will
• the crunch on nuclear-power-australia-liberal-coalition-peter-dutton-cost
• Johanna Bowyer on eraring-extension-could-see-nsw-taxpayers-covering-potential-losses , keeping-pace-building-new-energy-projects-key-maintaining-reliability

Northern America

• institutional economics on inflation-and-the-output-gap
• Dean Baker on the-problem-with-electric-vehicles Thanks Nick
• Eric Levitz on daniel-perry-pardon-greg-abbott-samuel-alito-flag
• Frank Figliuzzi on greg-abbott-daniel-perry-pardon
• Menzie Chinn on fed-board-why-is-the-u-s-gdp-recovering-faster-than-other-advanced-economies
• new deal democrat on real-wages-payrolls-and-consumption-vs-employment-and-their-forecast-implications-april-update , a-closer-look-at-inflation-part-2-of-2-how-the-feds-rate-hikes-actually-exacerbate-inflation-in-shelter
• Jenny Gordon on macroeconomic-limit-american-exceptionalism
• Andrew Prokop on trump-guardrails-authoritarian-democracy-second-term
• calculated risk on what-happened-to-paying-off-national
• Ian Millhiser on samuel-alito-republican-party-scotus , the-supreme-courts-new-voting-rights-decision-is-a-love-letter-to-gerrymandering
• the conversable economist on declining-labor-share-measurement-and-causes
• Brad De Long on trump-inflation-fed-war-would-be-economically-financially-disastrous
• Norman Eisen on trump-trial-supreme-court-immunity
• Michael Cohen on alito-supreme-court-flag-scandal
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-judge-carlton-reeves-warning-abortion-police-civil-rights , supreme-court-south-carolina-redistricting-ruling-clarence-thomas-brown-v-board
• Dahlia Lithwick on sam-alito-flags-supreme-court-reform
• the conversable economist on uber-lyft-vs-the-minneapolis-city-council-denouement
• Kruggers on inflation-soft-landing
• slow boring on reflections-on-almost-four-years
• Jeet Heer on impeachment-alito-thomas-insurrection

Europe

• Jon Richardson on time-recognise-crimean-tatar-genocide
• Adam Bartley and Tom Saxton on we-tracked-secret-russian-missile-launchers-in-ukraine-using-public-satellite-data
• Christopher Kirkland on uk-election-called-for-4-july-what-happens-next
• Stephanie Fillion on putin-s-foot-soldier-new-york-how-vassily-nebenzia-fought-after-russia-s-invasion
• Rachel Donadio on melonis-cultural-revolution

Asia

• noahopinion  on why-is-china-producing-so-many-export-industries-anyway
• Marika Sosnowski on why-has-an-israel-hamas-ceasefire-been-so-elusive-a-timeline-of-key-moments-in-the-search-for-peace
• Morton Pedersen on myanmar-if-sanctions-aren-t-solution-what
• Eric Lob on iran-crash-president-raisis-death-leaves-tehran-mourning-loss-of-regime-loyalist
• Nayson Rafati and Ali Vaez on iran-consequences-vacant-presidency
• Warrief Basorie on indonesia-s-digital-drive-gets-big-tech-backing
• Fred Kaplan on israel-palestine-gaza-netanyahu-cabinet-gantz-gallant-rafah
• Bill Haskell on how-famine-and-starvation-could-affect-gaza-for-generations-to-come
• Ellen Ioannes and Nicole Narea on icc-arrest-netanyahu-israel-sinwar-hamas-khan-prosecutor-gallant-idf-haniyeh
• Jenny Bloomfield on we-can-help-keep-taiwan-safe-deepening-engagement
• Robin Wright on what-raisis-death-means-for-the-future-of-iran
• James Chin on malaysia-sarawak-secession
• Sanjay Pulipaka on extraordinary-logistics-india-s-election

Wonk

• Tim Harford on the-surprising-data-behind-supercentenarians
• Tyler Cowen on why-is-africa-so-expensive , how-important-is-the-scientific-method
• Alex Tabarrok on why di we stop building beautiful
• Holly Cullen on julian-assanges-appeal-to-avoid-extradition-will-go-ahead-it-could-be-legally-groundbreaking
• Michael Fox on what-is-fate-and-how-can-it-both-limit-and-liberate-us
• Amy Maguire on no-one-can-act-with-impunity-icc-arrest-warrants-in-israel-hamas-war-are-a-major-test-for-international-justice
• John Edwards on whether-evs-or-solar-panels-protectionism-has-same-distorting-effect
• Mainly Macro on why-quantitative-easing-is-qualitatively-important-but quantitatively-not-so-important
• noahopinion on in-which-british-writers-scold-america , how-liberal-democracy-might-lose-the-21st-century
• Menzie Chinn on day-1-third-conference-on-the-international-roles-of-the-u-s-dollar
• Doug Drury on are-some-routes-more-prone-to-air-turbulence-will-climate-change-make-it-worse-your-questions-answered
• Andrea Furger on us-hostility-towards-the-icc-is-nothing-new-it-has-long-supported-the-court-only-when-it-suits-american-interests

General

• Nic Rawlence and Alexander Verry on ancient-dna-from-an-extinct-native-duck-reveals-how-far-birds-flew-to-make-new-zealand-home
• Rob Lawton on exercise-therapy-and-diet-can-all-improve-life-during-cancer-treatment-and-boost-survival-heres-how
• Grant Linley and Dale Nimmo on cameras-reveal-wombat-burrows-can-be-safe-havens-after-fire-and-waterholes-after-rain
• Mike Morley et al on a-rare-find-in-ancient-timorese-mud-may-rewrite-the-history-of-human-settlement-in-australasia

Climate

• David Appell on interesting-paper-on-greenhouse-effect
• skeptical science on fact-brief-breath , climate-affecting-mental-health-everywhere , at-a-glance-mwp, ClimateAdam-can-we-really-suck-up-carbon-dioxide
• moyhu on high-resolution-sst-and-movies-of-critical-regions
• Ruth Morgan on what-is-net-zero-anyway-a-short-history-of-a-monumental-concept
• Andrew Blakkers on global-solar-and-wind-generation-will-soon-overtake-nuclear-and-hydro

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• if-i-got-a-nickel-every-time
  
• not-eating-sweet-potatoes-is-that-gonna-kill-me
  
• more-red-meat-for-the-ai-skeptics
  
• former-dean-of-temple-university-convicted-of-fraud-for-using-fake-data-to-boost-its-national-ranking
  
• what-to-make-of-implicit-biases-in-llm-output
  
• from-what-body-part-does-the-fish-rot
  
• no-i-dont-believe-the-claim-that-mothers-negatively-affected-by-having-three-daughters-and-no-sons-study-shows
  
• gpt-today-jokes-and-buffons-needle-in-python-with-plotting
  
• deadwood
  
• hmc-fails-when-you-initialize-at-the-mode
  
• the conversable economist on pushback-on-pessimism-about-randomized-controlled-trials

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• reading-on-the-go
  
• Tyler Cowen on the-culture-of-hollywood-vs-the-culture-of-bollywood , unit-x , what-ive-been-reading
• Mark Pierce on month-world-changed

Vox Wonk

• electrifying-equality-how-electricity-adoption-boosted-inclusive-growth-early-20th
• european-firms-facing-geopolitical-risk-evidence-recent-eurosystem-surveys 
• global-economic-fracturing-and-shifting-investment-patterns-diagnostic-ten-fdi-trends
  
• the-economics-of-social-media
  
• interest-rates-and-exchange-rates-when-money-supply-goes
  
• surprisingly-italys-resilience-and-recovery-facility-plan-working
  
• fake-news-susceptibility-awareness-and-solutions
  
• high-markups-reduce-pass-through-cost-push-shocks-only-when-shocks-are
  
• business-usual-bank-net-zero-commitments-lending-and-engagement
  
• doing-green-things-skills-reallocation-and-green-transition
  
• ukraines-capital-market-brief-history
  

Recent polling

 Mark the Ballot makes a pleasant return whilst Kevin Bonham makes his usual post budget look as well ( and the UK go to the polls on July 4.) 

Renewables still rule

 The CSIRO and AEMO have published their latest gen cost estimates.

See HERE and HERE

Renewables are by far the cheapest form of energy and the quickest to build. The Opposition are becoming nuclear champions despite a lack of evidence to support their position. The time involved in bringing on nuclear power means you need a long transition and what will that energy be? It cannot be coal powered stations as they are cheaper and bad for the environment ( and people). Is it going to be umpteen gas fired power stations?

To more things Maybe three. nuclear is baseload power. It operates 24 hours a day. This means it will earn diddlysquat during the day because of the solar duck curve. ( google it for other explanations).

If private enterprise does not want a bar of coal fired  power then who is going to own and finance a nuclear power station.

Base load power does not work when the industry needs dispatchable power.

We are waiting for answers

Arrest warrants sought for both Hamas and Israel leaders

 The chief Prosecutor for the ICC is seeking arrest warrants for various people involved in the Israel/ Hamas 'war'.

Please note the chief prosecutor has to get permission of three judges to get the warrants.He does not have them as yet.

I will leave the Hamas part as I cannot believe anyone would dispute this.

The major question is whether the warrants for the Israelis are warranted ( pun unintended).

Bombing about 80% of buildings is difficult to justify. Having most of the Palestinians being women and children is also as well unless you wish to absurdly argue they were part of Hamas. Not allowing aid to get into Gaza cannot be justified. Destroying hospitals is something we criticise Putin for so why not Israel.

All of this is is de facto evidence of war crimes.

Everyone was sympathetic to Israel when Hamas went about their murderous venture.

Israel in attempting to gain revenge has simply to all intents had a strategy of killing as many palestinians in the hope of killing Hamas personnel. 

Yet again we see evidence of Israeli politicians ( and their supporters) saying any criticism if Israeli policies is anti-semitic.

THIS is good

Perhap randomised trial are good afterall

 Timothy Taylor of the conversable economist fame writes a very readable article pushback-on-pessimism-about-randomized-controlled-trials.

Well worth a read 

Around the Traps 17/5/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Chris Richardson on budgets Thanks Nick
• Ross Gittins on the-economy-is-just-means-to-end-so-is-it-working , labors-persistent-refusal-to-fix-jobseeker-is-shameful , budget-will-make-us-better-off-now-but-worse-off-later , budgets-message-maybe-well-pull-off-the-softest-of-landings
• Joechem Kaempf on more-desalination-is-coming-to-australias-driest-states-but-super-salty-outflows-could-trash-ecosystems-and-fisheries
• Sara Daehm and Anthea Vogl on high-court-dismisses-key-challenge-to-indefinite-immigration-detention-what-does-it-mean
• Yasir Arafat and Dayoush Abibi on scrapping-the-waste-export-levy-threatens-australias-emerging-lithium-battery-recycling-industry
• Greg Jericho on australia-budget-2024-the-six-graphs-you-need-to-see , australia-wage-price-index-figures-inflation-salary-growth
• Stephen Bartos on chalmers-is-bitten-by-the-giveaway-bug-in-a-budget-that-contains-good-news-for-almost-everyone
• John Hawkins on budget-2024-chalmers-fights-inflation-will-it-be-enough-for-a-rate-cut
• Peter Greste on david-mcbride-goes-to-prison-and-australian-democracy-takes-a-hit
• Kate Griffiths on the-budget-is-full-of-good-news-but-good-news-isnt-the-same-as-good-management
• James Bowen on australia-s-new-gas-strategy-makes-flawed-foreign-policy
• croaking cassandra on productivity-growth-4-anglos , words-and-inactions , two-central-banks
• John Quiggin on its-time-to-give-labors-first-term-a-scorecard-have-we-actually-seen-any-transformative-vision
• Aruna Sathanapally on at-the-heart-of-the-budget-is-the-sad-truth-the-economy-is-weak-thats-one-reason-inflation-will-fall

OZ Climate

• gas-shortage-yeah-nah-a-fact-check-on-labors-fossil-gas-future-strategy
  
• gigawatt-scale-solar-and-battery-project-near-queensland-coal-plant-wins-federal-green-tick
  
• harmony-on-the-grid-wind-solar-and-battery-projects-made-to-pay-for-sins-they-could-not-commit
  
• battery-storage-is-about-to-overtake-global-capacity-of-pumped-hydro
  
• worlds-biggest-grids-could-be-powered-by-renewables-with-little-or-no-storage-if-we-are-smart-enough
  
• Alison Reeve on clean-energy-slump-why-australias-renewables-revolution-is-behind-schedule-and-how-to-fix-it

Northern America

• Liz Zhou on roger-fortson-police-killing
• Nicole Narea on us-border-crisis-mexico-migrant-immigration-asylum
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-worst-decisions-donald-trump , supreme-court-cfpb-clarence-thomas-community-financial
• noahopinion on the-big-tariffs-are-here , seven-reasons-america-is-headed-for-a-conservative-decade
• John Holbo on originalism-for-realists-two-obvious-thoughts
• Steve Benen on biggest-flaw-justice-clarence-thomas-newest-complaints
• Tyler Cowen on the-decline-in-labors-share-of-national-income
• renew economy on why-us-offshore-wind-power-is-struggling-the-good-the-bad-and-the-opportunity
• Paul Waldmann on clarence-thomas-supreme-court-samuel-alito-complaints
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03
• Dean Baker on overall-and-core-consumer-price-index-cpi-both-increased-by-0-4-percent-in-march
• Justin Peters on fox-news-donald-trump-joe-biden-election
• the conversable economist on uber-lyft-vs-the-minneapolis-city-council
• Justin Fox on US public debt is big. Demand is bigger Thanks Brad
• Charlie Sykes on trump-rally-vaccine-mandates-risks-kids-lives
• Mark Stern on cfpb-funding-supreme-court-clarence-thomas-fifth-circuit-nonsense
• new deal democrat on april-consumer-prices-still-an-interplay-of-gas-and-house-prices-with-a-side-helping-of-motor-vehicle-insurance

Europe

• Tennyson Dearing on ukraine-gets-green-light-strikes-russia-it-was-long-overdue
• renew economy on renewable-energy-averages-95-per-cent-share-in-portugal-in-april
• Mainly Macro on the-political-right-is-in-illiberal-trap-of-its-own-making
• Danica Jenkins on we-do-not-want-to-be-like-russia-a-first-hand-account-of-georgias-fight-for-democracy
• Christina Caryl on georgia-erupts
• Michael Toomey on robert-fico-why-the-attempted-assassination-of-slovakian-prime-minister-could-fuel-the-information-war-between-russia-and-europe

Asia

• Joshua Keating on hezbollah-israel-lebanon
• Justin Burke on cause-china-s-coercion-skies-may-lay-under-water
• Khang Vu on north-korea-s-population-problem
• Buu Nguyen on dams-salt-sad-fate-vietnam-s-mekong-delta
• Fred Kaplan on israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-negotiations-rafah-impasse-stalemate
• Raymond Offenheiser on ive-spent-decades-overseeing-relief-operations-around-the-world-and-heres-whats-going-wrong-in-gaza
• Ian Parmeter on israels-invasion-of-rafah-will-not-eliminate-hamas-or-end-the-war-so-what-is-benjamin-netanyahus-plan
• Richard Morgan on nakba-day-israel-palestine-gaza-war-displacement
• Areyeh Meier on is-israel-committing-genocide
• Nicole George on why-is-new-caledonia-on-fire-according-to-local-women-the-deadly-riots-are-about-more-than-voting-rights
• David Chang -WeiWu on most-important-factor-hardening-china-s-stance-taiwan
• Ellen Ioannes on gaza-deaths-israel-hamas-hospital-ministry-health
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on alito-flag-supreme-court-justices-stop-the-steal-ethics-rules-pitiful

Wonk

• Glenn Loury on self censorship in public discourse Thanks Nick
• Institutional economics on country-risk-premia-and-a-second-trump-adminstration
• Tim Harford on why-deep-down-were-all-ultramarathoners
• noahopinion on the-death-again-of-the-internet-as-we-know-it , how-i-would-regulate-ai
• Erin O'Brien on what-is-it-about-gaza-wars-are-raging-around-the-world-so-why-are-young-people-so-passionate-about-this-one
• Tyler Cowen on the-reserve-currency-and-the-liquidity-demand-for-safe-assets
• sandwichman on opium-of-people-and-radical-chains
• Ved Shinde on seek-national-security-begin-becoming-relevant
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-budgeting-deglobalisation

General

• Timothy Schmidt on what-causes-the-different-colours-of-the-aurora-an-expert-explains-the-electric-rainbow
• Timothy Rapp et al on we-mapped-a-lost-branch-of-the-nile-river-which-may-be-the-key-to-a-longstanding-mystery-of-the-pyramids

Climate

• notes on growth on visiting-the-worlds-most-expensive-nuclear-station Thanks Nick
• moyhu on giss-april-global-temperature-down-from-march
• ocean acidification on causes-effects-and-possible-mitigation-strategies-of-ocean-acidification
• skeptical science on climate-hurricanes-destructive
• this is not cool on tree-rings-show-last-summer-hottest-since-time-of-christ
• renew economy on wind-turbines-pay-back-life-cycle-carbon-emissions-in-less-than-2-years-nz-study-finds
• Benji Jones on coral-reefs-bleaching-climate-change

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• what-happens-when-youve-had-deferential-media-coverage-and-then-all-of-a-sudden-youre-treated-as-a-news-item-rather-than-as-a-figure-of-admiration
  
• is-it-really-the-economy-stupid
  
• theyre-trying-to-get-a-hold-on-the-jungle-of-cluster-analysis
  
• reducing-mortality-in-populations-with-high-mortality-often-leads-to-a-younger-population-steady-state-population-distributions-and-more-from-a-scholarly-remix
  
• data-problems-with-the-the-local-news-initiative-mapping-project
  
• the-income-of-the-average-american-will-double-approximately-every-39-years-who-says-that-sort-of-thing-show-some-respect-for-uncertainty-dude
  
• a-bizarre-failure-in-the-review-process-at-pnas
  
• how-to-think-about-the-effect-of-the-economy-on-political-attitudes-and-behavior
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the Atlantic on summer-reading-2024
• Mark Pierce on bread-index-measure-revolt

Vox Wonk

• commodity-prices-and-global-financial-cycle
  
• firms-debt-structure-matters-monetary-policy-transmission
  
• role-imported-rd-services-and-immigrant-researchers-firm-growth-evidence-denmark
  
• covid-19-policy-support-and-firm-productivity-retrospect
  
• how-zero-risk-weights-sovereign-debt-can-lead-capital-misallocation
  
• how-geopolitics-changing-trade
  
• dominant-currency-pricing-international-trade-services
  
• influence-nature-related-risks-loan-pricing-and-financial-sector
  
• why-oil-import-restrictions-hurt-russia-more-price-cap
  
• transition-illiberal-democracy-new-ebook
  
• global-gender-gaps-may-never-close-their-own
  

If you did not read Around the Traps then you missed this

•  another view on what ids happening at US UNIS and what was MISSED
• how will the war in Ukraine END
• India does like a FREE PRESS
• neither does ISRAEL
• Astrazeneca got a bad press from some.

I find it ironic that I have plenty of time on my hands but I don't!

The budget

 Here are some opinions

• chalmers-is-bitten-by-the-giveaway-bug-in-a-budget-that-contains-good-news-for-almost-everyone
  
• budget-2024-chalmers-fights-inflation-will-it-be-enough-for-a-rate-cut
  
• australia-budget-2024-the-six-graphs-you-need-to-see
  

In a word disappointing. I was expecting a very small deficit around 0.1-0.2% od GDP. 1% od GDP was much greater than I thought. 

I do not think it will lead to higher interest rates as nominal GDP will hit the floor but budget repair is needed and we are not getting it now.

In political terms they win the election and then produce a harsh budget?? I don't think so.

This is a party who seem incapable of believing they can win a political fight on a substantial issue.

Conspiracy

 Conspiracy is an old movie indeed a telemovie. It was made in 2001!

I watched it on Saturday because of the rain with my oldest son. You can only watch it on Binge in Australia. (My son has the free period to watch before you have to pay.)

The movie is about how the nazis came to the final solution for the Jews. What is jaw dropping is just how well educated this group were. There were plenty of Phds around the table yet they spewed and believed in the most ignorant things about the jews. The other thing to cogitate on is how any person could hate a race so much when they had nothing to embitter such men. Why did the nazis hate the jews so much???

Why did they wish to kill all jews in any country they ruled?

This is an english production and we have wonderful english actors and scriptwriters to ensure the quality of the movie.

If you have not seen it do yourself a favour and watch it. Be sure to listen for the story told to Hey right near the end of the film!

About time

 For far tool ong Ukraine have attempted to battle russia with one arm tied behind their back. biden has been too timid in not allowing Ukraine to do anything in russia with US arms.

People are now changing their minds,

The West must influence Ukraine not to imitate Russia and commit war crimes. There will be undoubtedly be Ukrainians who feel that they should do to russia what russia has done to them.   As Israel is showing revenge is a poor substitute.

Around the Traps 10/5/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andrew Norton on the-good-news-is-the-government-plans-to-cancel-3-billion-in-student-debt-the-bad-news-is-indexation-will-still-be-high
• David Waller et al on how-effective-are-domestic-violence-advertising-campaigns-for-preventing-violence-against-women
• Joshua Black and Frank Bongiorno on holy-moly-scott-morrison-has-plans-for-your-and-his-own-good
• Ross Gittins on productivity-isnt-working-so-why-not-try-something-more-ethical , when-politicians-talk-of-security-be-on-your-guard
• Peter Martin on if-the-rbas-right-interest-rates-may-not-fall-for-another-year-heres-why-and-what-it-means-for-next-weeks-budget
• Sam Roggeveen on helicopter-flare-should-highlight-china-s-base-instincts
• Greg Jericho on those-calling-for-higher-interest-rates-in-australia-should-be-careful-of-what-they-wish-for
• Dave Hurst et al on yes-australias-big-supermarkets-have-been-price-gouging-but-fixing-the-problem-wont-be-easy
• croaking cassandra on the-treasury-and-productivity

OZ Climate

• Adam Simpson on nuclear-power-makes-no-sense-for-australia-but-its-a-useful-diversion-from-real-climate-action
• Samantha Hepburn on australia-can-have-a-future-for-the-gas-industry-or-meet-its-climate-commitments-but-not-both
• Josh Runciman on australian-government-has-questions-answer-over-future-gas-strategy
• power-to-the-people-rooftop-solar-seen-as-secret-weapon-to-energy-transition-and-ev-uptake-rooftop
  
• more-bureaucracy-than-engineering-battery-developers-lament-lengthy-connection-delays
  
• from-solar-to-evs-five-green-tech-supply-chains-that-could-deliver-215-billion-boost-to-australia
  
• w-a-to-spend-big-on-new-transmission-to-connect-more-wind-and-solar
  
• more-than-just-panels-on-rooftops-how-to-make-the-most-out-of-household-pv-and-batteries
  

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on employment-situation-slower-employment-wage-aggregate-hours-growth
• Abdullah Fayhad on columbia-gaza-encampment-campus-protests-police-crackdown-pro-palestinian-students
• noahopinion on the-positive-case-for-joe-biden , americas-semiconductor-policy-is-missing-a-key-point
• Robert Jackson on us-student-gaza-protests-five-things-that-have-been-missed
• Justin Fox on america-wasn-t-made-for-walking-and-it-s-killing-us Thanks Brad
• Norman Eisen et al on trump-trial-judge-merchan-testimony-gag-order
• Charlie Sykes on nancy-frenchs-ghosted-recounts-damage-trump-wrought-gop
• Judith Shulevitz on pro-palestinian-protests-columbia-chants
• Nicole Narea on weapons-shipment-bombs-israel-pause-gaza-rafah
• Tyler Cowen on did-world-war-ii-pull-america-out-of-the-great-depression

Europe

• Allen Ioannes on rwanda-uk-tories-sunak-labour-braverman-patel-migrants-asylum
• Timothy Ash on big-germany-what-now
• Menzie Chinn on russia-slows-struggles-to-supply-the-war-effort
• Gordon Weiss on all-wars-end-how-will-one-ukraine

Asia

• Alexandra Wake on india-s-crackdown-journalists-sour-note-festival-democracy
• Shantanu Roy-Chaudury on japan-insulating-itself-america-s-turbulent-politics
• Shahram Akbahzadah on iran-is-gaining-credibility-in-the-muslim-world-and-feeling-emboldened-this-doesnt-bode-well-for-the-region
• Nicole Narea on israel-gaza-al-jazeera-ban-press-freedom-security
• noahopinion on japan-is-not-a-xenophobic-country
• Sarah Schiffling and Foteini Stavropoulus on gaza-war-as-ceasefire-talks-break-down-the-humanitarian-crisis-continues-to-escalate
• Richard Heydarian on squad-goals-consolidating-new-quadrilateral-partnership
• Joshua Keating on israel-hamas-ceasefire-rafah
• Daniel Flitton on story-assassination-plot-india-decides-shoot-messenger

Wonk

• Tim Harford on why-deep-down-were-all-ultramarathoners
• the conversable economist on spring-2024-journal-of-economic-perspectives-free-online , a-downside-of-the-15-minute-city
• Mainly Macro on when-are-large-and-persistent-increases-in-debt-to-GDP-justified
• noahopinion on the-macro-arsonists
• Christopher Featherstone on what-a-second-trump-presidency-might-mean-for-the-rest-of-the-world
• Menzie Chinn on brad-setser-power-and-financial-interdependence
• Michael Heard on astrazenecas-covid-vaccine-withdrawn-right-to-the-end-it-was-the-victim-of-misinformation

General

• Jodi Rowley and Damian Letfoof on we-found-pesticides-in-a-third-of-australian-frogs-we-tested-did-these-cause-mass-deaths

Climate

• skeptical science on india-key-climate-catastrophe , at-a-glance-diverge
• Cynthia Mehboob on cable-shortage-plugging-offshore-wind-farms
• Damian Carrington on world-scientists-climate-failure-survey-global-temperature
• moyhu on april-global-surface-templs-down-0004-from-march
• Dani Rodrik on green-subsidies-justified-on-economic-environmental-and-moral-grounds Thanks Brad
• Umair Irfan on g7-coal-phaseout-end-japan-power-climate-energy-emissions

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• combining-multiply-imputed-datasets-never-easy
  
• you
  
• on-lying-politicians-and-bullshitting-scientists
  
• a-cook-a-housemaid-a-gardener-a-chauffeur-a-nanny-a-philosopher-and-his-wife
  
• mcmc-draws-cannot-fill-the-posterior-in-high-dimensions
  
• there-is-a-war-between-the-ones-who-say-there-is-a-war-and-the-ones-who-say-there-isnt
  
• papers-on-human-decision-making-under-uncertainty-in-ml-venues-we-have-advice
  
• studying-causal-inference-in-the-presence-of-feedback
  
• bamdd
  
• i-just-got-a-strange-phone-call-from-two-people-who-claimed-to-be-writing-a-news-story-they-were-asking-me-very-vague-questions-and-i-think-it-was-some-sort-of-scam-i-guess-this-sort-of-thing-is-w
  
• who-understands-alignment-anyway
  
• Kaiser Fung on waze-user-saying
• freakometrics on growth decline what are we talking about

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the big picture on fragile-by-design thanks Brad

Vox Wonk

• globalisation-and-profitability-us-firms
  
• understanding-return-intentions-and-integration-ukrainian-refugees
  
• austerity-and-climate-inaction
  
• european-economic-security-age-interdependence
  
• savings-responses-increasing-retirement-ages
  
• consumers-regard-cost-money-part-cost-living
  
• elections-and-devaluations
  
• non-bank-financial-intermediation-research-policy-and-data-challenges
  
• when-did-argentina-lose-its-mojo