Around the Traps 30/9/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Institutional Economics on the-many-contradictions-of-macfarlane-and-lowe
• Renee McKibbin on no-the-rba-review-wont-mean-handing-the-banks-decisions-to-part-time-outsiders
• David Brewster on australia-s-support-bangladesh-will-bolster-regional-stability
• Ross Gittins on whats-kept-us-from-full-employment-is-a-bad-idea-that-wont-die, labor-sets-out-its-alternative-to-neoliberalism, albanese-wants-to-put-full-employment-back-on-its-throne
• Andrew Podger on pezzullo-story-points-to-serious-systemic-problems-in-the-australian-public-service
• Kevin Bonham on voice-referendum-polling-nothing-has-stopped-the-declining-trendline, not-poll-reset-andrews-resigns
• Bruce Wolpe on why-the-voice-could-be-a-bulwark-against-trumpism-gaining-a-stronger-foothold-in-australia
• Paul Strangio on dan-andrews-leaves-office-as-a-titan-of-victorian-politics-who-drove-conservatives-to-distraction
• Antony Green on daniel-andrews-resigns-ad-victorian-premier
• croaking cassandra on labours-fiscal-plan
• Greg Jericho on rba-reserve-bank-australia-cpi-inflation-figures-interest-rates
• Judith Ireland on australian-universities-have-dropped-in-the-latest-round-of-global-rankings-should-we-be-worried

OZ Climate

• Renee Prokopavicuis et al on we-need-urban-trees-more-than-ever-heres-how-to-save-them-from-extreme-heat
• Graham Readfearn on what-is-the-climate-crisis-doing-to-australias-weather-extremes-a-coalition-frontbencher-gets-it-patently-wrong
• Muhammad Razman on what-causes-lithium-ion-battery-fires-why-are-they-so-intense-and-how-should-they-be-fought-an-expert-explains
• Pep Canadell on the-green-energy-surge-still-isnt-enough-for-1-5-degrees-well-have-to-overshoot-adapt-and-soak-up-carbon-dioxide
• rooftop-solar-meets-all-of-south-australia-demand-in-major-new-milestone
  
• green-industry-urged-to-club-together-in-clean-energy-hubs-and-cut-transmission-spend
  
• no-new-solar-latest-data-shows-new-renewable-projects-at-near-standstill-on-the-grid
  
• big-battery-to-the-rescue-as-rooftop-pv-pushes-biggest-isolated-grid-to-record-demand-lows
• want-energy-democracy-paying-networks-to-install-community-batteries-is-not-the-way
  

Northern America

• Jared Mondschein on americas-leaders-are-older-than-theyve-ever-been-why-didnt-the-founding-fathers-foresee-this-as-a-problem
• Marin Cogan on biden-federal-office-of-gun-violence-prevention
• Zack Beauchamp on america-democracy-authoritarianism-tyranny-minority-levitsky-ziblatt
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-acheson-hotels-deborah-laufer-testers-disabilities-hotel-website, supreme-court-alabama-allen-milligan-racial-gerrymander-defiance
• Li Zhou on north-carolina-republicans-elections
• Andrew Prokop on bob-menendez-indictment-charges-corruption-scandal-bribery-wife
• the conversable economist on hbcus-the-evolving-challenge, us-capital-is-depreciating-faster, initial-reactions-to-the-amazon-antitrust-case, some-economics-of-pharmacy-benefit-managers
• Menzie Chinn on boloori-saghafian-health-and-economic-impacts-of-lockdown-policies-in-the-early-stage-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states
• Patricia O'Brien on us-under-pressure-conclude-compact-agreements-north-pacific
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-likely-government
• Ved Shinde on foreign-policy-begins-home-ask-trudeau
• Nicole Narea on trump-fraud-new-york-business-case
• Steven Lubet on john-roberts-supreme-court-ethics-rules
• Tom Nichols on america-us-democracy-conservative-party
• renew economy on rich-white-americans-the-most-likely-to-oppose-wind-farms-says-study
• slow boring on polarization-is-a-choice Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on those manufacturing jobs we want back were good for a reason Thanks Brad
• Raymond Scheppach on gop-shutdown-threat-is-the-wrong-way-to-win-a-budget-war-history-shows-a-better-strategy-for-reducing-the-deficit
• newdeal democrat on why-the-public-still-views-inflation-as-a-major-problem-despite-the-official-numbers
• Seth Feaster and Dennis Hampstead on solar-delivers-texas-grid-reliable-output-peak-demand

Europe

• Ellen Ioannes on conflict-nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan-armenia-russia-turkey-explained
• Tim Harford on the-uk-is-doing-a-shoddy-job-keeping-up-with-its-neighbours
• noahopinion on germany-needs-to-stop-messing-around
• writing from london on disaster-conservatism-theres-nothing-to-save-from-the-tory-years thanks Brad
• Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Maylarenko on ukraine-war-mixed-signals-among-kyivs-allies-hint-at-growing-conflict-fatigue
• Juliette McIntyre on ukraine-and-russia-traded-barbs-in-the-uns-top-court-over-the-legality-of-the-invasion-what-could-happen-next-in-the-case

Asia

• Mark Beeson on libya-s-unlearnable-lessons
• Benjamin Silberstein on historical-roots-north-korea-s-lucky-break-russia
• Fakhrido Susilo and Jaysa Prana on indonesia-s-long-term-geostrategic-ambition-what-s-missing
• Dave Sharma on israel-saudi-arabia-finally-new-middle-east
• Matiullah Qazizada on why-humanitarian-aid-vital-afghanistan
• Marina Yue Zhang on chinas-new-anti-espionage-law-is-sending-a-chill-through-foreign-corporations-and-citizens-alike
• Adnaan Amir on kalash-are-under-threat-pakistani-taliban
• David Schulman on heading-toward-a-second-nakba-a-day-in-the-life-of-abed-salama
• noahopinion on what-if-xi-jinping-isnt-that-competent
• Dereck Grossman on japan-risks-its-reputation-oceania-fukushima-discharge

Wonk

• Andrew Dodd on why-is-rupert-murdoch-stepping-aside-now-and-what-does-it-mean-for-the-company
• Lorna Grisby on rupert-murdoch-his-fox-news-legacy-is-one-of-lies-with-little-accountability-and-political-power-that-rose-from-the-belief-in-his-power-3-essential-reads
• Grace Stanhope on post-disaster-aid-developing-fragile-states
• noahopinion on argentinas-macroeconomic-situation-is-even-worse-up-close, why-do-economists-get-paid-more-than-sociologists
• the conversable economist on rising-coffee-prices-a-story-of-supply-shocks
• Javier Blass on africa-s-lost-decade-economic-pain-underlies-sub-saharan-coups Thanks Brad
• Chris Fleming on explainer-the-philosophy-of-jean-jacques-rousseau-is-profoundly-contemporary
• Nick Gruen on the-academy-and-partners-try-wellbeing-frameworks
• Yastreblanksy on identity-politics Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on challenges-to-strong-golden-rule-mmt-bond-market-paranoia
• stumbling and mumbling on against-politics
• institutional economics on commodities-for-the-long-run-are-real-commodity-prices-trending
• Jeet Heer on hardeep-singh-nijjar-narendra-modi
• Kevin Munger on the-tragedy-of-stafford-beer

General

• Evangeline Mantzioros on are-fish-oil-supplements-as-healthy-as-we-think-and-is-eating-fish-better
• Brackety Jack on Absent gods Absent Catastrophes Thanks Brad

Climate

• Christian Turney et al on carbon-removal-why-ambitious-no-nonsense-plans-are-vital-to-limit-global-heating-to-2
• Real Climate on the-scafetta-saga, old-habits
• Inga Smith et al on as-antarctic-sea-ice-continues-its-dramatic-decline-we-need-more-measurements-and-much-better-models-to-predict-its-future
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-co2
• Andrew Freedman on antarctic-sea-ice-maximum-record-low
• Peter Sinclair on graph-of-the-week-small-modular-nuke-maker-sees-stock-value-plunge

Andrew Gelman ( mainly statistics)

• again-why-i-dont-like-to-talk-so-much-about-p-hacking
  
• stupid-legal-arguments-and-moral-hazards
  
• psychology-needs-to-get-tired-of-winning
  
• how-many-hours-should-students-spend-in-class-compared-to-doing-homework
  
• how-to-teach-certain-tricky-things-such-as-the-difference-between-standard-deviation-and-standard-error
  
• we-live-in-a-time-of-mad-kings-megalomaniacal-sociopaths-granted-dangerous-power-through-wealth-and-or-political-position-prone-to-wild-schemes-of-empire-and-grandeur
  
• where-should-we-go-to-see-the-total-eclipse-heres-a-graph-id-like-to-see
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• classes-elites-and-people
  
• Patrick Marren on Fatal Certainty Thanks Brad
• Johanna Hannick on emily-wilson-iliad-translation-review
• Sean Turnell on fix-all-roads-lead-white-house
• Brad De Long on american-democracy-republicans-viewing-democrats-as-mortal-enemies
• Georgina Downer on aukus-debate-after-fact-still-worth-having

Vox Wonk

• bonds-premium-impact-insurers-corporate-bond-issuers
  
• forward-looking-labour-supply-responses-changes-pension-wealth
  
• fear-or-knowledge-impact-graphic-cigarette-warnings-tobacco-product-choices
  
• fast-slow-and-congested-urban-transportation-rich-and-poor-countries
  
• insulating-properties-inefficient-loan-enforcement-european-firms
  
• women-are-less-engaged-trade-why-and-what-do-about-it
  
• nowcasting-trade-value-added-indicators
  
• economic-approach-personality-character-and-virtue
  
• innovation-and-appropriability-revisiting-role-intellectual-property
  
• retail-central-bank-digital-currency-and-social-costs-liquidity-provision
  
• art-and-science-patience-relative-prices-and-inflation
  
• wages-and-vacancy-duration
  
• perspective-great-reallocation-global-supply-chains
  

Bob Dylan

 Not a lot of time as my wife flies off.

Here is Bob Dylan doing Maggies Farm live with electric instruments. It was very controversial at the time as folk singers simply did not use electric instruments.  It features one of my favourite guitarists. Mike Bloomfield.

some Climate stuff

 Very little time today as my wife is off to the Stans. ( Okay she is missing Pakistan and Afghanistan for obvious reasons.)

Here is Real Climate on old-habits.

Short but interesting

Pezzullo looks gone to me.

 Okay a few articles on Pezzullo

• Andrew Podger
• Michelle Grattan
• Steve from Brisbane
• Clancy Moore

My view is he is gone. He strayed from being a public servant to being a political player Murdoch style.

A News publisher can get away from this but not a public servant.

Should we be worried if Trump wins the Presidency again?

In a two horse race you should never write off anyone.

During the last week we have had two interesting articles on US politics and its 'dark'  element.

There is Simon Wren-Lewis and Zack Beauchamp.

I am in the camp that the institutions are not yet corrupted totally. We saw this in Nzii Germany for example. 

Trump can replace everyone in the Justice Department if he wants but look out for the legal fights for people getting sacked for doing their job! They still need to convive a grand Jury to get an indictment and even then that does not mean a successful prosecution. Last ti9me Trump directed his A/G to prosecute two people. One was thrown out of court and the other found not guilty.

It would mean a lot more work for the President following trump HOWEVER it is more than likely Trump would not be able to fill all the vacancies and those that did would be less than competent.

Yes be afraid and the authors make valid points but do not run off the cliff as yet.

Around the Traps 23/9/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on marketing-brochure
• Connor O'Brien on critical-minerals-critical-choices-australia-s-role-shaping-green-revolution
• Ross Gittins on all-reasons-interest-rates-are-bad-way-to-manage-an-economy, productivity-debate-descends-into-damned-lies-and-statistics-mode, how-to-make-big-business-deliver-for-us
• Kevin Bonham on losing-republic-like-its-1999-polling
• Yiting Zhang et al on who-really-benefits-from-private-health-insurance-rebates-not-people-who-need-cover-the-most
• Kate Galloway on no-the-voice-to-parliament-would-not-force-people-to-give-up-their-private-land
• Antony Green on when-will-the-next-federal-election-be-will-it-be-held-early
• Celeste Young et al on worried-about-heat-and-fire-this-summer-heres-how-to-to-prepare
• John Quiggin on french-lesson-french-lesson-we-dont-need-nuclear-power-we-need-a-new-pierre-messmer, living-in-the-70s-why-australias-dominant-model-of-unemployment-and-inflation-no-longer-works
• Michael Toole et al on a-covid-inquiry-has-been-announced-but-is-covid-still-a-thing-do-i-need-a-booster

OZ climate

• Adam Morton on nuclear-energy-australia-smokescreen-climate-denialism-coalition
• Mark howden and frank Jotzo on net-zero-by-2050-too-late-australia-must-aim-for-2035
• Martine Maron et al on nature-positive-isnt-just-planting-a-few-trees-its-actually-stopping-the-damage-we-do
• extend-the-ret-expert-says-and-dont-pay-coal-plants-for-a-job-they-cant-do
  
• rooftop-solar-sends-coal-to-record-low-and-peaks-at-nearly-half-of-all-grid-demand
  
• lies-and-fantasies-bowen-puts-387-billion-price-tag-on-duttons-nuclear-plans
  
• rooftop-solar-eats-up-all-demand-in-south-australia-worlds-most-renewable-grid
  
• the-stunning-stupidity-of-the-coalition-nuclear-push-is-now-in-plain-view
  
• aemo-and-csiro-to-lead-new-study-into-100-pct-renewable-grids
  
• another-big-solar-farm-plugs-into-the-grid-this-one-to-help-power-the-nbn
  
• we-should-lead-australia-urged-to-fast-track-net-zero-to-2035-as-el-nino-declared
  
• renewables-sail-past-70-pct-on-australias-main-grid-send-coal-to-fresh-lows
  
• renewables-are-cheaper-than-ever-yet-fossil-fuel-use-is-still-growing-heres-why
  
• aemo-celebrates-new-renewables-record-but-it-could-have-been-much-higher
  

Northern America

• Institutional economics on lehman-15-years-on-the-lehman-moment-was-not-a-lehmann-moment
• noahopinion on whos-afraid-of-the-huawei-mate-60
• the conversable economist on reality-check-on-us-manufacturing-jobs, reality-check-on-median-household-income
• lawyers guns money on failed-presidential-candidate-wants-more-of-his-constituents-to-die Thanks Brad
• Chris Anstey on sticking-the-landing Thanks Brad
• Benji Jones on florida-coral-reef-bleaching-heat-wave-climate-change
• Ellen Ioannes on trump-meet-the-press-presidential-election-2024
• Shiriin Ali on trump-trials-2024-impartial-jury-selection-jurors
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03-in-august
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-fifth-circuit-term-cfpb-guns-voting-chevron, supreme-court-alabama-defiance-voting-rights-act-racial-gerrymandering-brett-kavanaugh
• Mainly Macro on democracy-on-knife-edge-in-united-states
• Thomas Gift and Julie Norman on trump-on-trial-experts-answer-key-legal-and-political-questions-about-what-could-happen-next
• Umair Irfan on coastal-climate-ocean-rising-miami-florida-building
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court-whoopsie-groundhog-day
• David Graham on janet-protasiewicz-impeachment-state-courts
• Jeet Heer on mitt-romney-gop-trump
• Nitish Pawha on india-canada-murder-hardeep-singh-nijjar-trudeau-modi-khalistan
• Noah Feldman on the-courts-conservative-constitutional-revolution
• the overshoot on the-feds-bullishness-is-pushing-up-rates Thanks Brad
• Andrew Prokop on bob-menendez-indictment-charges-corruption-scandal-bribery-wife

Europe

• Tim Harford on the-uk-is-doing-a-shoddy-job-keeping-up-with-its-neighbours
• Kelly Bjorkland and Simon Smith on ukraine-war-reports-suggest-that-russia-has-been-deliberately-targeting-journalists-which-is-a-war-crime
• Jen Kirby on ukraine-defense-ministry-dismissals-zelenskyy-unga
• Joel Eissenberg on timothy-snyder-on-why-we-should-thank-ukrainians
• Stefan Wolf on nagorno-karabakh-longest-war-in-post-soviet-space-flares-yet-again-as-russia-distracted-in-ukraine
• noahopinion on germany-needs-to-stop-messing-around

Asia

• Gabriela Bernal on north-korea-undeterred-putin-s-pleasure
• Joseph Webster and Zoe Leung on beijing-s-plan-taiwan-challenges-its-offshore-wind-push
• Ellen Ioannes on china-disappearing-senior-military-officers-li-shangfu-xi-jinping-peoples-liberation-army
• Afshin Shahi on mahsa-amini-a-year-into-the-protest-movement-in-iran-this-is-whats-changed
• Munira Mustaffa on no-neutrality-espionage-why-malaysia-tangled-spying-case-norway
• Andrew Selth on how-credible-are-casualty-figures-coming-out-myanmar
• Stuti Bhatnagar on explainer-what-is-the-khalistan-movement-sparking-a-diplomatic-feud-between-india-and-canada
• Cherry Hitkari on how-china-sees-its-conflict-philippines
• Robert Walker and Roland Rajah on china-does-not-need-currency-manipulation-boost-its-exports
• Syed Haider on pakistan-crossroads-blasphemy

Wonk

• noahopinion on an-age-of-austerity-is-probably-on-its-way
• the conversable economist on partha-dasgupta-and-tim-besley-talk-sustainability-and-biodiversity, larry-summers-and-a-new-washington-consensus
• Henry Storey on camp-david-agreement-s-shallow-foundations
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-naomi-kleins-brand

General

• Adrian Barnett and Nicole White on tests-that-diagnose-diseases-are-less-reliable-than-youd-expect-heres-why

Climate

• Jonathon Symons on we-are-poised-to-pass-1-5-of-global-warming-world-leaders-offer-4-ways-to-manage-this-dangerous-time
• skeptical science on climate-destroying-reefs-more-than-ecological, at-a-glance-volcanoes
• Frank Jotzo and Michelle Lyons on global-stocktake-unlocking-trillions-climate-action

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• evidence-based-medicine-does-it-lead-to-people-turning-off-their-brains
  
• harvard-law-prof-sez-i-believe-that-if-universities-are-going-to-accept-blood-money-the-should-only-ever-accept-that-money-anonymously
  
• are-there-clear-examples-of-the-opposite-idea-where-four-visually-similar-visualizations-can-have-vastly-different-numerical-stats
  
• creating-community-in-a-data-science-classroom
  
• the-freaky-friday-that-never-happened
  
• how-to-quit-smoking-and-a-challenge-to-currently-standard-individualistic-theories-in-social-science
  
• a-message-to-parkinsons-disease-researchers-design-a-study-to-distinguish-between-these-two-competing-explanations-of-the-fact-that-the-incidence-of-parkinsons-is-lower-among-smokers
  
• in-which-we-answer-some-questions-about-regression-discontinuity-designs
  
• my-sciml-webinar-next-week-28-sep-multiscale-generalized-hamiltonian-monte-carlo-with-delayed-rejection
  
• west-point-like-major-league-baseball-was-purely-based-on-merit-and-achievement-before-jackie-robinson-and-that-tuskegee-airman-guy-came-along-and-messed-everything-up
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• tackling-child-malnutrition-long-run-global-perspective-persistent-issue
  
• hot-temperatures-new-player-housing-markets
  
• penny-pound-enforcement-dilemma-eu-fiscal-rules
  
• targeting-bans-exports-russia
  
• accounting-duality-italian-economy
  
• teacher-gender-biases-exist-and-have-long-term-effects
  
• unleashing-potential-model-based-reform-benchmarking-eu-member-states
  
• acquisitions-redistribute-risk-after-financial-crises
  
• eu-and-irelands-economic-growth-and-recovery
  
• violence-against-female-politicians
  

India behaving badly

 I wrote previously how Albo should not get too close to Modhi as the Indian Pm has authoritarian inclinations.

It appears worse than that. Trudeau in Canada has said they have credible evidence the Indian government was involved in the murder of a canadian citizen who was a fervent supporter of a sikh homeland. See HERE as well. Also HERE oh dear  more HERE

This is bad news for Australia and the USA who want India on their side against China.hence the quad. As we have seen India do not want to take sides in the Russian invasion of Ukraine which means of course they are taking russia's side by default.

India is in dangerous territory if it claims to be a democracy. We should be doing everything to ensure they remain a democracy. That is by no means assured.

How is the government travelling?

 On an objective basis their popularity has fallen somewhat but they are still comfortably ahead of the Opposition.

however I want to concentrate on the subjective. 

Overall they are competent. People know inflation was rising before they took office so they are not blamed for inflation and it is now falling.

At this stage we should have some standouts for Ministers who are simply not up to the job. At this stage we do not have any. Certainly Catherine King is unable to tell us why stopping Qatar is in the national interest. Linda Burney is very poor in being point woman on the Voice also. Amanda Rishworth always looks like she will slip up but thus far has not.

By the time of the next election inflation should be in the comfortable zone although people will keep on saying we are in a cost ofl iving crisis! The economy will be on the rise and thus unemployment will be slowly falling from where it had risen to. you would expect renewables to have well over half of electricity production.

So my subjective analysis is the government is travelling well.

I should add Albanese like both howard and Keating before him became leader with a strong reputation as a parliamentary performer. Like both forbears he has not shown it as Prime Minister!

Qantas is NOT the national carrier

 Qantas is a public company and thus not the national carrier.

The Government of the day should NEVER try and protect it. This will only lead to higher prices for consumers.We should remember Qatar airways brought more aussies home than Qantas! Qantas is now price gouging customers/ It wasn't always this way. Way back when I remember at business school how good qantas was at keeping and gaining customers. no more!

The government of the day should only try and get lower prices for consumers. If the Minister of the day cannot show what the national interest is then clearly they do not know!

Around the Traps 16/9/23

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Institutional Economics on rba-governor-philip-lowes-final-act
• croaking cassandra on he-immediately-repaid-the-money-spent-putting-the-matter-right-at-the-first-opportunity, fiscal-impulses-and-fiscal-spin, how-much-revenue-might-nationals-foreign-buyer-tax-raise
• Ross Gittins on how-philip-lowe-was-caught-on-cusp-of-history, big-business-should-serve-us-not-enslave-us
• John Quiggin on the-ageing-alarmists-wont-let-go
• Kevin Bonham on voice-referendum-polling-how-low-can-go
• Ian Douglas and Seena Sarum on under-open-skies-the-market-not-the-minister-would-decide-how-often-airlines-could-fly-into-australia
• Andrea Carson et al on the-no-campaign-is-dominating-the-messaging-on-the-voice-referendum-on-tiktok-heres-why
• Brendan Coates on the-greens-were-right-to-agree-to-pass-australias-housing-future-fund-bill-the-case-for-further-delay-was-weak
• Shae McCrystal on high-court-ruling-vindicates-sacked-qantas-workers-but-doesnt-stop-the-outsourcing-of-jobs-in-the-future
• Kevin Bonham on does-losing-mid-term-referendums-help-governments-win-the-next-election
• Connor O'Brien on critical-minerals-critical-choices-australia-s-role-shaping-green-revolution

OZ Climate

• the-australian-solar-tech-that-may-have-found-a-low-cost-solution-to-deep-storage
  
• wind-and-solar-hit-record-share-of-main-grid-as-curtailment-underscores-need-for-more-storage
  
• solar-reaches-record-120-per-cent-of-electricity-demand-in-south-australia
  
• nuclear-energy-remains-weapon-of-choice-for-climate-deniers-and-coal-lobby
  
• south-australia-slashes-red-tape-for-new-wind-solar-and-hydrogen-gold-rush
  
• solar-batteries-and-microgrids-essential-for-disaster-prone-communities-study-finds
  
• carbon-credits-are-not-the-enemy-says-head-of-markets-lobby
  
• big-batteries-and-solar-push-new-boundaries-on-the-grid
  

Northern America

• rightlandia on the-trilateral-shitpost-fire Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on recession-probabilities-using-data-through-end-2022
• Liz Zhou on government-shutdown-republicans-house-freedom-caucus, biden-impeachment-inquiry-kevin-mccarthy
• Bill Haskell on supply-side-expansion-driving-the-decline-in-inflation
• newdeal democrat on paul-krugmans-goldilocks-economy-is-likely-to-prove-transitory
• Ian Millhiser on texas-abortion-travel-ban-unconstitutional
• Dennis Aftergut on mark-meadows-donald-trump-court-fail, judicial-trend-donald-trump-legal-trouble
• Dahlia Lithwick on ginni-thomas-ethics-supreme-court-hats, mitt-romney-hero-coward-trump
• the conversable economist on the-utilities-that-will-need-to-carry-out-electrification-governance-issues, the-remarkable-steadiness-of-us-economic-growth
• Jeet Heer on elon-musk-threat-democracy
• Mark Stern on democrat-lujan-grisham-new-mexico-gun-ban
• Adam Serwer on prager-u-indoctrination-public-schools-1619-project
• Brad DeLong on how-is-our-current-state-different
• Andrew Prokop on hunter-biden-indictment-gun-david-weiss
• noahopinion on whos-afraid-of-the-huawei-mate-60
• newdeal democrat on august-consumer-inflation-confirms-goldilocks-soft-landing-may-well-be-transitory
• Amelia Thomson-Devaux on americans-oppose-biden-impeachment-house-republicans
• Mark Stern on hunter-biden-second-amendment-legal-defense
• Paul Renfro and Mathew Stanley on bill-clinton-history-legacy-centrism

Europe

• Mathew Sussex on as-russia-woos-nations-to-support-its-war-in-ukraine-will-fault-lines-deepen-around-the-globe
• Tim Harford on the-uk-is-going-about-reclaiming-city-streets-the-wrong-way
• Tennyson Dearing on ukraine-has-moscow-its-crosshairs-shouldn-t-make-us-squeamish
• Mainly Macro on its-economy-but-is-it-good, the-next-time-someone-says-government-cannot-borrow-to-invest-just-mention-RAAC
• stumbling and mumbling on the politics of stagnation
• renew economy on uk-renewables-still-cheaper-than-gas-despite-auction-setback-for-offshore-wind
• Tim Judah on black-swan-times

Asia

• Sanya Dinghra on g20-spectacle-domestic-imperatives-modi-s-global-ambitions
• James Chin on malaysia-60-one-country-three-visions
• Ian Hall on india-pushes-china-margins-g20
• Rahaam Yaacob on asean-china-trust-deficit
• Thu Anh on sea-robbery-singapore-strait
• Brad Setser on will-chinas-economic-slump-hit-the-u-s Thanks Brad
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-judicial-overhaul-supreme-court-hearing-netanyahu
• Alex Tabarrok on india-gets-rid-of-its-jones-act

Wonk

• Chris Bertram on chile-50-years-on
• the conversable economist on earning-the-commute-effects-of-the-pandemic-on-real-estate, some-economics-of-global-migration-wdr-23
• noahopinion on the-next-phase-of-globalization-is-going-to-be-awsome
• Angus Deaton on how-misreading-adam-smith-helped-spawn-deaths-of-despair
• can we still govern on the-dismal-return-of-the-avocado-toast-guy Thanks Nick
• Dan Rodrik on global-economy-biggest-risk-is-geopolitics-not-protectionism Thanks Nick

General

• Josephine Chau on is-standing-at-your-desk-actually-better-than-sitting-heres-what-the-evidence-says
• Brad Tucker on signs-of-life-why-astronomers-are-excited-about-carbon-dioxide-and-methane-in-the-atmosphere-of-an-alien-world
• Benjamin Kooyman on a-haunting-in-venice-is-kenneth-branaghs-20th-film-what-do-we-make-of-his-prodigious-output
• John Homer on are-we-about-to-see-a-rare-green-comet-light-up-the-sky-an-expert-on-what-to-expect-from-nishimura

Climate

• Bruno Stefani and Mathew Wright on solar-panel-technology-is-set-to-be-turbo-charged-but-first-a-few-big-roadblocks-have-to-be-cleared
• Rebecca Leber and Umair Irfan on climate-change-stocktake-cop28-dubai
• Umair Irfan on heat-wave-south-america-brazil-australia-argentina-hemisphere-winter
• noahopinion on our-climate-change-debates-are-out-of-date
• sceptical science on GW-juiced-idalia-40-50-percent , at-a-glance-does-cold-weather-disprove-global-warming, ClimateAdam-if-we-stop-emitting-then-what
• and Then Theres Physics on the-bad-boy-of-science, scientific-shenanigans
• met office on what-do-we-mean-by-a-climate-tipping-point
• Andrew King and Andrew Dowdy on faster-disaster-climate-change-fuels-flash-droughts-intense-downpours-and-storms
• Edward Doddridge and Arriaan Purich on devastatingly-low-antarctic-sea-ice-may-be-the-new-abnormal-study-warns
• Kevin Trenberth on how-rising-water-vapour-in-the-atmosphere-is-amplifying-warming-and-making-extreme-weather-worse
• Allie Gallant and Kimberly Reid on we-just-blew-past-1-5-degrees-game-over-on-climate-not-yet
• Stochastic Trend on my-climate-change-policy-assumptions
• Moyhu on giss-august-global-temperature-up-by-0.05

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• improving-survey-inference-in-two-phase-designs-using-bayesian-machine-learning
  
• the-authors-of-research-papers-have-no-obligation-to-share-their-data-and-code-and-i-have-no-obligation-to-believe-anything-they-write
  
• using-forecasts-to-estimate-individual-variances
  
• crypto-scam-social-science-thoughts-the-role-of-the-elite-news-media-and-academia
  
• better-than-difference-in-differences-my-talk-for-the-online-causal-inference-seminar-tues-19-sept
  
• how-big-problem-it-is-that-cross-validation-is-biased
  
• omid-malekan-on-why-crypto-is-not-a-scam
  
• the conversable economist on as-survey-responses-drop-where-can-the-economic-data-come-from
• noahopinion on how-not-to-be-fooled-by-viral-charts

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• state-sponsored-cyber-crime
  
• middling-models-in-the-big-real-world
  
• brains-and-machines
  
• literary hub on 5-book-reviews-you-need-to-read-this-week Thanks Nick

Vox Wonk

• reviewing-three-years-covid-19-consumption-big-data
  
• financial-literacy-importance-new-field
  
• shadow-confederacy-culture-institutions-and-geography-racial-animus-us
  
• lessons-germany-shock-consequences-uncoordinated-economic-policies-currency-union
  
• non-economic-objectives-globalisation-and-multilateral-trade-cooperation
  
• panic-driven-bank-runs-and-public-communication
  
• when-credibility-not-enough-fiscal-dominance-monetary-policy-and-exchange-rates-early
  
• profits-time-inflation-some-insights-recent-and-past-energy-shocks-uk
  
• padma-desai-pioneer-more-ways-one
  
• long-term-effects-inflation-inflation-expectations
  
• use-commercial-real-estate-collateral-ties-firms-access-credit-real-estate-cycle
  
• us-capital-glut-and-other-myths
  
• community-networks-and-trade-evidence-india
  

The No case is losing the argument but not the votes

 Yesterday was disgraceful. Marcia Langton was verballed by the Australian. Three times it changed its story without once bothering to contact her. Here is her story.

Add this to the racist remarks of some and the racist cartoon and we have a disgraceful group simply giving out misinformation and disinformation.

It appears to be working.

I should add Linda Burney is a major weakness and she is the Minister. Replace her with McCarthy would be a decent start.

some strange things from US politics

 Some people say Joe Biden is too old to run for President, a statement I agree with. however if Biden is too old so is Trump.

Some people say biden's mental acuity has gone without providing proof. Trump lost a libel case to E jean Carrol because of his deposition where he was asked questions by her lawyer. He thought Carroll was one of his former wives in a photo.Thats  mental acuity put to the test.

Trump is making money of his mugshot in Georgia. It says never surrender. That's right it is a picture of when he surrendered!

You cannot make these things right.

Nuclear power as the saviour

 I am bemused by the embrace of nuclear power amongst climate denialists. Build SMRs they say in the old coal fired power stations they say.

The only problem is they never talk about the costs or the time it takes to build them.

They will never be competitive with renewables in terms of cost  or in the time to build them and they do not have the problem of nuclear waste. Former Chief Scientist Alan Finkel says why waste time on nuclear given how long it takes to build the stations given the cost of renewables!

Funny how there are no commercial examples of successful modular power plants.

Here is Renew economy

The Association

 I was fiddling around with YouTube and came across this song.

Close your eyes and go back in time to a much simpler world. To be honest I am amazed I like WINDY by the Association but I do and it is only 3 minutes. It is live in a countdown sort of way! They use a recorder and it works and the harmonies are superb.

Although it is an uplifting song I can't help feeling depressed in a nostalgic way about the song and even the band.

This song appeared both in Sesame Street and  Breaking Bad!!

They are just as good live

told ya!!

Around the Traps 9/9/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on policy-costings-a-case-study, making-the-prefu-more-useful, thinking-about-fiscal-policy-2, nz-in-fiscal-perspective-cross-country-and-across-time, just-making-stuff-up-the-chair-of-the-rb-board-and-the-blackball-on-expertise
• Paul Strangio on modern-prime-ministers-have-typically-left-parliament-soon-after-defeat-so-why-doesnt-scott-morrison
• Institutional Economics on why-is-the-australian-dollar-so-weak
• Peter Martin on whats-to-stop-philip-lowe-moving-to-a-private-bank-after-he-leaves-the-rba-its-what-his-predecessors-did
• Greg Jericho on australias-economy-has-got-smaller-on-a-per-capita-basis-like-it-did-in-the-gfc-and-1990s-recession-so-you-know-not-good
• Isaac Gross on were-in-a-per-capita-recession-as-chalmers-says-gdp-steady-in-the-face-of-pressure
• James Laurenson on australias-not-likely-to-catch-a-cold-just-a-sniffle-from-chinas-economic-downturn
• Trivess Moore and Lisa de Kleyn on on-hot-days-up-to-87-of-heat-gain-in-our-homes-is-through-windows-on-cold-days-its-40-of-heat-loss-heres-how-we-can-fix-that
• Kevin Bonham on australian-polling-denial-and-disinformation-register

Oz Climate

• Graham Readfearn on the-cheapest-reliable-energy-system-to-meet-australias-climate-targets-solar-and-wind-no-question
• Melissa Haswell and David Shearman on health-evidence-against-gas-and-oil-is-piling-up-as-governments-turn-a-blind-eye
• snowy-2-much-how-can-a-2-2gw-water-battery-be-worth-more-than-12-billion
  
• are-we-trying-to-go-forward-or-not-australias-renewable-transition-needs-clear-direction
  
• on-the-last-day-of-winter-australia-reached-record-37-5-pct-renewables-share-for-the-year
  
• scale-of-battery-of-the-nation-project-cut-in-half-after-huge-cost-blow-out
  
• rooftop-solar-market-closes-out-winter-at-a-new-high-as-households-keep-going-big
  
• queensland-to-hit-50-pct-renewables-two-years-early-but-warns-energy-wars-only-just-begun
  
• cheaper-and-quicker-distributed-networks-put-case-to-host-wind-and-solar
  
• nsw-to-open-talks-with-origin-on-eraring-streamline-new-wind-and-solar-projects
  
• marinus-link-is-a-boondoggle-cutting-it-in-half-wont-change-that
  
• eraring-is-more-about-bill-shock-and-equity-than-lights-going-out-batteries-and-bowen-can-help
  
• moving-beyond-baseload-nsw-turns-to-consumers-and-local-storage-to-fill-eraring-gap
  
• how-the-consumer-energy-sharing-economy-can-help-eraring-close-on-time
  

Northern America

• Institutional Economics on hedging-trump-there-are-no-good-hedges
• Menzie Chinn on whats-the-output-gap-2023-edition, guest-contribution-startups-create-fewer-jobs-and-do-not-survive-as-long-as-previously-reported
• noahopinion on hey-tech-folks-vivek-ramaswamy-is-not-the-one, is-it-time-for-the-revenge-of-the-normies, the-danger-of-another-american-civil-war-is-low
• angry bear on why-the-democrats-love-affair-with-free-trade-deals-is-over
• the conservable economist on learning-losses-during-the-pandemic-reviewing-the-evidence
• Kruggers on covid-climate-cryptocurrency-plutocrats Thanks Brad
• Tim Duy on Fedwatch Thanks Brad
• Mui Preston on misled-by-the-phillips-curve-how-inflation-predictions-went-wrong Thanks Brad
• Steven Lubet on clarence-thomas-ethics-republicans
• Mark Stern on alabama-defying-supreme-court-gerrymandering-whoops
• Quinta Jurecic on metaphor-legal-remedies-trump
• Eric Foner on seeing-was-not-believing-when-the-news-broke-hendershot
• sonecon on trade-agreements-have-created-u-s-jobs-and-raised-u-s-incomes Thanks Brad
• Ian Millhiser on wisconsin-gerrymander-republican-impeachment-justice-protasiewicz-supreme-court
• Dylan Scott on nfl-kickoff-2023-opening-day-sports-gambling-betting-odds-fantasy-football
• newdeal democrat on scenes-from-the-august-employment-report-and-a-warning
• Monica Potts on politicians-are-getting-older-and-voters-are-worried-but-not-that-worried
• Menzie Chinn on term-spread-watch

Europe

• Paul Cureton on ukraine-war-australian-made-cardboard-drones-used-to-attack-russian-airfield-show-how-innovation-is-key-to-modern-warfare
• Mainly Macro on its-economy-but-is-it-good
• Daniel Sailsbury on ukraine-war-two-good-reasons-the-world-should-worry-about-russias-arms-purchases-from-north-korea
• Jeet Heer on negotiations-end-ukraine-war
• Mick Ryan on why-ukraine-s-new-strike-strategy-has-putin-on-the-run
• Liz Zhou on germany-far-right-afd-comeback
• writing from london on brexit-why-cant-we-break-the-conspiracy-of-silence Thanks Brad

Asia

• Nadeem Mookakal on can-taliban-contain-islamic-state-afghanistan
• Khang Vu on can-north-korea-play-russia-against-china
• Chih-Ling Liu on i-almost-lost-my-will-to-live-preference-for-sons-is-leaving-young-women-in-china-exploited-and-abused
• Dennis Roy on under-xi-party-winning-china-losing
• Drezners world on the-end-of-the-rise-of-china, the-rising-dangers-of-a-falling-china Thanks Brad
• Roland Rajah and robert Walker on china-s-troubles-may-well-get-worse-they-get-better
• Ved Shinde on why-india-keeps-foot-both-camps
• noahopinion on chinas-slowdown-and-the-incentives-for-war
• Geoffrey Roberts on chinas-concerning-new-strategy-on-human-rights-unite-the-world-behind-a-selective-approach
• Henry Storey on china-finally-getting-serious-about-hukou-reform
• Ankit Tiwari and Sidharth Raimedhi on ahead-g20-india-china-reconciliation-fails-launch

Wonk

• Folahamni Aina on coup-in-gabon-ali-bongo-the-eighth-west-african-leader-to-be-ousted-by-military-in-two-years
• Suman Majumdar and Brendan Crabb on long-covid-symptoms-can-improve-but-their-resolution-is-slow-and-imperfect
• Michelle Lyons on climate-justice-friendshoring-china-s-supremacy-america-s-ir-act
• Tim Harford on the-inconvenient-truth-about-productivity
• Desiree Desierto et al on the political economy of magna carta Thanks Tyler
• Uneasy Money on the-road-to-incoherence-arthur-burns-and-the-agony-of-central-banking
• Cornelia Tremann on coup-d-etat-gabon-oil-champagne-china-s-geopolitical-opportunity
• Stephen Grenville on building-bigger-brics
• the conversable economist on when-the-time-price-of-leisure-rises-the-linder-theorem, remittances-they-just-keep-rising
• Ammar Azzouz on my-home-city-was-destroyed-by-war-but-i-will-not-lose-hope-how-modern-warfare-turns-neighbourhoods-into-battlefields

General

• Aja Romana on concert-phones-livestreaming-etiquette-beyonce-taylor-swift-eras-tour-harry-styles-k-pop-fan-chants
• Lowrie Daithwaite-Walsh on women-are-less-happy-than-men-a-psychologist-on-why-and-four-things-you-can-do-about-it

Climate

• Amadine Scheaffer on marine-heatwaves-dont-just-hit-coral-reefs-they-can-cause-chaos-on-the-seafloor
• David Appell on uah-second-warmest-month-in-their-records
• skeptical science on clauser-latest-climate-denying-physicist, at-a-glance-pollutant
• Andrew King on not-burning-drowning-why-outdoor-festivals-like-burning-man-are-reeling-from-extreme-weather
• science of doom on natural-variability-attribution-and-climate-models-9
• real climate on as-soon-as-possible
• moyhu on august-global-surface-templs-up-0.056-from-july
• and Then Theres Physics on they-made-me-do-it

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• advice-on-writing-a-discussion-of-a-published-paper
  
• latest-observational-study-shows-moderate-drinking-associated-with-a-very-slightly-lower-mortality-rate
  
• how-many-americans-drink-alcohol-and-who-are-they
  
• sources-of-bias-in-observational-studies-of-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness
  
• a-client-tried-to-stiff-me-for-5000-i-got-my-money-but-should-i-do-something
  
• what-happened-with-hmos-an-update
  
• a-rational-agent-framework-for-improving-visualization-experiments
  
• forking-paths-in-medical-research-a-study-with-9-research-teams
  
• this-is-what-power-06-looks-like-visualized-by-art-owen
  
• when-i-said-judge-this-post-on-its-merits-not-based-on-my-qualifications-was-this-anti-bayesian
  
• Kaiser Fung on ethical-dilemmas-poll-results-post

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• platforms-and-information
  

Vox Wonk

• just-time-just-case-global-sourcing-and-firm-inventory-after-pandemic
  
• devoted-minds-ramadans-influence-exam-performance
  
• effect-copyright-digitisation-and-availability-visual-artworks
  
• scholars-risk-professional-networks-and-escape-persecution-nazi-germany
  
• effect-copyright-digitisation-and-availability-visual-artworks
  
• global-lessons-demise-credit-suisse
  
• covid-and-cities-thus-far
  
• loquacity-and-visible-emotion-chatgpt-policy-adviser
  
• how-1918-influenza-pandemic-affected-voting-weimar-republic
  
• productive-and-unproductive-crises
  
• social-cost-carbon-under-stochastic-climate-volatility
  
• work-home-cities-tale-coordination-and-multiple-equilibria