Around the Traps 31/1/20

It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy,

• Thomas Duff on out-of-control-contained-safe-heres-what-each-bushfire-status-actually-means
• Croaking Cassandra on free-up-housing-by-shaking-up-politics , a-speech-from-the-new-secretary-to-the-treasury, an-intriguing-possibility-raised-by-the-rb, retirement-nzs-and-all-that
• Ross Gittins on getting-and-spending-whats-it-meant-to-prove , zero-net-carbon-choice
• renew economy on south-australia-on-track-to-100-pct-renewables-as-regulator-comes-to-party , morrison-urged-to-act-as-arena-funding-about-to-be-exhausted , agl-signs-up-for-giant-battery-in-queensland-paving-way-for-1000mw-solar-plant , morrison-is-dangerously-wrong-on-gas-and-needs-to-wake-up-to-new-technologies, fortescue-to-add-150mw-solar-and-a-big-battery-to-pilbara-iron-ore-mines
• Greg Jericho on were-working-but-not-as-much-as-we-want-to-and-that-keeps-wages-low , few-signs-of-economic-life-as-inflation-stays-stuck-in-its-rut
• Michelle Grattan on view-from-the-hill-politicians-not-bureaucrats-are-the-ones-in-touch-morrison-claims-in-sports-affair
• Geoff House on building-standards-give-us-false-hope-theres-no-such-thing-as-a-fireproof-house
• Larissa Schneider et al on plants-safely-store-toxic-mercury-bushfires-and-climate-change-bring-it-back-into-our-environment
• Peter Greste on the-australian-government-needs-to-step-up-its-fight-to-free-kylie-moore-gilbert-from-prison-in-iran
• Gaurav Khemka and Geoff Warren on the-uncomfortable-truth-about-super-theres-no-one-size-fits-all-contribution
• Andrew Podger on the-sports-rorts-affair-shows-the-government-misunderstands-the-role-of-the-public-service
• Dennis Muller on media-impartiality-on-climate-change-is-ethically-misguided-and-downright-dangerous
• Law and Religion in Australia on straw-men-in-the-religious-discrimination-debate  Thanks Jim Rose
• Simon Homes A'Court on scott-morrison-is-stuck-in-a-time-warp-more-gas-is-not-the-answer

Northern America

• John Hawkins on slow-minded-and-bewildered-donald-trump-builds-barriers-to-peace-and-prosperity
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-december-new-home-sales
• the conversable economist on the-inflation-puzzle-why-has-it-move-so-little , worries-about-automation-and-manufacturing-job-losses-from-1940 , business-formation-statistics-getting-to-know-you
• run17441 on US-firearms-related-mortality
• David Smith on the-us-presidential-primaries-are-arcane-complex-and-unrepresentative-so-why-do-americans-still-vote-this-way
• John Cassidy on john-boltons-book-is-making-fools-of-trumps-republican-enablers
• Barkley Rosser on which-lie-is-worst
• Fintan O'Toole on trump-senate-trial-whatever-he-wants

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on we-dont-want-economic-growth
• Mainly Macrro on how-business-lost-its-influence-on-right-wing-parties
• Anne Applebaum on after-brexit-new-identity-crises-await-uk

Asia

• JJ Rose on rohingya-long-distance-between-law-and-justice
• Michael Nguyen on forging-consensus-south-china-sea
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-israel-palestine-peace-plan-deal-century-apartheid
• Fred Kaplan on trump-middle-east-peace-plan-israel-palestine
• Tony Walker on trumps-middle-east-vision-is-a-disaster-that-will-only-make-things-worse
• Vivienne Chow on hong-kong-wards-coronavirus-authorities-struggle-win-trust

Wonk

• Tim Harford on ten-years-of-social-media-have-left-us-all-worse-off
• sandwichman on war-peace-and-end-of-shorter-hours
• the conversable economist on coffee-nomics-supply-chain-story
• Mark Humnphery-Jenner on what-we-know-suggests-the-economic-impact-of-wuhan-coronavirus-will-be-limited
• Menzie Chinn on what-determines-the-strength-of-interest-rate-linkages-between-countries
• Roland Rajah on coronavirus-one-step-forward-one-step-back-global-economy
• Ali Wyne and Michael J Mazaar on real-us-china-competition-competing-theories-influence
• stumbling and mumbling on the-bias-against-social-science
• Gary Sacks et al on dont-believe-the-myths-taxing-sugary-drinks-makes-us-drink-less-of-it
• Tim Harford on will-the-2020s-finally-be-the-decade-that-the-robots-come-for-our-jobs
• Uneasy Money on my-paper-hayek-hicks-radner-and-four-equilibrium-concepts-is-now-available-online

General

• Roger S Seymour on how-smart-were-our-ancestors-turns-out-the-answer-isnt-in-brain-size-but-blood-flow
• C Raina Macintyre on how-contagious-is-the-wuhan-coronavirus-and-can-you-spread-it-before-symptoms-start

Climate

• Real Climate on update-day-2020, bau-wow-wow
• Open Mind on this-is-not-natural
• Stoat on ignore-fake-climate-debate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• which-teams-have-fewer-fans-than-their-namesake-i-pretty-much-like-this-persons-reasoning-except-when-we-get-to-the-chargers-and-raiders
• are-gwas-studies-of-iq-educational-attainment-problematic
• they-added-a-hierarchical-structure-to-their-model-and-their-parameter-estimate-changed-a-lot-how-to-think-about-this
• dont-talk-about-hypotheses-as-being-either-confirmed-partially-confirmed-or-rejected
• its-not-just-that-the-emperor-has-no-clothes-its-more-like-the-emperor-has-been-standing-in-the-public-square-for-fifteen-years-screaming-im-naked-im-na
• statschat on coronavirus-news
• Eran Raviv on understanding-pointwise-mutual-information-in-statistics
• Kevin Bonham on do-it-yourself-issues-polling-due-diligence

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-wreck-of-welfare-economics
• coffee-table-economics
• varieties-of-neoliberalism
• Andrew Gelman on my-review-of-ian-stewarts-review-of-my-review-of-his-book
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-4-the-body-a-guide-for-occupants

vox wonk

• threatening-central-bank-independence-one-tweet-time
• nature-nurture-and-intergenerational-mobility
• housing-speculation-and-its-economic-consequences
• british-aviation-government-versus-industry-after-wwi
• impact-first-professional-police-forces-crime
• tracking-long-run-growth-euro-area-atheoretical-tool
• theory-versus-statistical-fit-macroeconomic-modelling
• silver-lining-forced-migration-investment-education
• share-women-top-incomes
• human-capital-millwrights-and-industrialisation-18th-century-england
• learning-about-demand-abroad-wholesalers
• data-are-development-issue
• how-ecb-purchases-corporate-bonds-helped-reduce-firms-borrowing-costs

Female sport is rubbish

Given all that is going on why write about a lightweight issue.

When sport is played why is it not played on an open basis that is the best of men and women play against each other. Because dear lonely reader women are not good enough to do so.

Remember Heather Mackay. She was the greatest female squash player of all time. She actually played in the Sydney local grade competition against men and usually got thrashed each time. ( My uncle played against her.)

When working in the city I worked with a man who went to a Uni in Texas. It was where Martina Navratilova practised at.  He also played tennis indeed he played in the Australian open at one stage. He informed me that those male players who were going to the Uni regularly beat her easily.

Let us go to the two sports I know well.

Football

Women are not the well balanced runners men are. They cannot control the ball as well, They cannot jink inside a defender and they make terrible goal keepers ( they cannot dive on their side well for some reason).  It is a low skilled game. Our Matildas got beaten  ( thrashed  actually) by a U/16 team or thereabouts.

Cricket

Women cannot bowl side on for some reason hence they struggle to bowl out swingers, When they bowl in swingers it swings from the hand and the spinners are better described as pie chuckers. Notice no female bowlers have their speed measured. I wonder why.

I see better cricket on Saturdays when umpiring D grade Shires.

I am by no means saying women should not play sport however do not attempt to put it o n equal terms with men.
Equal pay simply does not work. At the office we all do similar work and get paid accordingly. There is no male and female work
Not so on the sporting field yet some females get paid as much as males. political correctness gone mad

Brigid McKenzie must still go

Andrew Probyn has belled the cat on the Sports Grants rort.  McKenzie completely changed the criteria for gaining a grant. Sports Australia has a list from 1 to whatever based on merit.
McKenzie put all potential grants into safe seats marginal seats, winnable seats.

In an irony on ironies the grants had no impact whatsoever.

What we are seeing is the real Canberra bubble at work. The nationals and others just do not get this does not pass the pub test.  From now on in applying for any sort of grant people and organisations will know if they are not in a marginal or winnable seat they will have no hope.

I have been involved in many a community organisation and this will cause white hot anger. all that effort to write a brilliant submission and all for nought!

Postscript:

Two further points

1) This will give a lot of hope to independents wanting to contest safe national seats.
2) It further shows Scott Morrison just like John Howard or Kevin Rudd might like to highlight their 'christian' credentials but when push comes to shove those credentials are nowhere in sight.

Bushfires rap

Quite clearly the bush fire season is not over yet however I thought I would outline some things that occurred this season.

This could well be the first 'bad' season' that El Nino was nowhere to be seen.
Every State and Territory had 'bad' bush fires
The chances of four successive days of over 40C has fallen like a rock.
We had not one but TWO one in one hundred droughts in less than twenty years
We had the driest season on record.
Thus far we have seen off that arsonists caused the fires, 1974/5 was worse however it is clear the cultural war 'rightists' have put there was not enough hazard reduction done. Just rem,ember they never put a figure on what was needed only MORE was needed.

A big problem here is hazard reduction is usually done in colder times and when there is humidity around.
When it is dry the problem of controlling such reductions rises exponentially.  In Sydney we saw this in Hornsby in 2018 where houses in West Pymble and the like were threatened. homes have been burnt because hazard reduction gets out of control.

however when it is sooo dry and you combine it with searing temperatures and very strong winds then you can have hazard reduction until the cows come home it won't make a difference. Just a little example the RFS in NSW reported flames climbing heights never envisaged during the[present season.
There are of course a few examples where hazard reduction was done and people were confident they were prepared BUT the fires simply swept through. Kangaroo Island is possibly the best example of this.

It is a moot point whether politicians will understand the lessons of these bush fires. The National Party leader would seem to show they won't have a clue

Around the Traps 24/1/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy,

• Paul Read and Richard Dennis on with-costs-approaching-100-billion-the-fires-are-australias-costliest-natural-disaster
• Mark Maund et al on before-we-rush-to-rebuild-after-fires-we-need-to-think-about-where-and-how
• Michelle Ward et al on six-million-hectares-of-threatened-species-habitat-up-in-smoke
• Rod Keenan et al on forest-thinning-is-controversial-but-it-shouldnt-be-ruled-out-for-managing-bushfires
• Maris O'Sullivan on so-the-government-gave-sports-grants-to-marginal-seats-what-happens-now
• Mark the Ballot on /polls-bias-variance-trade-off-and-2019-election
• Ross Gittins on rba-should-stop-pretending-theres-any-useful-it-can-do , climate-change-we-cant-stop-it-by-refusing-to-change
• renew economy on australia-wind-and-solar-investment-plunges-as-coalition-turns-blind-eye-to-transition
• Greg Mullins on i-tried-to-warn-scott-morrison-about-the-bushfire-disaster-adapting-to-climate-change-isnt-enough
• Hilde Tubex on prisoner-numbers-in-australia-have-decreased-but-were-not-really-sure-why-yet
• Stephen Garnett et al on conservation-scientists-are-grieving-after-the-bushfires-but-we-must-not-give-up
• Greg Jericho on a-new-decade-is-likely-to-bring-another-year-of-low-wages-growth, scott-morrisons-stance-on-climate-change-makes-it-harder-for-future-governments-to-undo-his-damage
• croaking cassandra on housing-unaffordability , fines
• Cris Brack on many-of-our-plants-and-animals-have-adapted-to-fires-but-now-the-fires-are-changing
• Danielle Wood et al on new-year-new-strategy-unheralded-change-to-budget-targets-creates-space-for-stimulus
• renew economy on angus-taylors-secret-consultation-on-emissions-cuts-stacked-towards-big-emitters , australia-has-a-credible-path-to-a-low-carbon-grid-why-wont-the-coalition-embrace-it
• Howard Whitton on why-we-need-strong-ethical-standards-for-ministers-and-better-ways-of-enforcing-them
• Michelle Grattan on bridget-mckenzie-has-made-herself-a-sitting-duck

Northern America

• Sean Illing on impeachment-trial-trump-bannon-misinformation
• Menzie Chinn on the-us-china-phase-1-deal-interpeted-break-thing-claim-to-fix-thing-repeat
• Tyler Cowen on the-economic-policy-of-elizabeth-warren
• the conversable economist on academics-and-new-york-times-on-history-of-slavery , americans-dont-see-economy-as-nations-most-important-problem
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-december-existing-home-sales
• Todd Purdum on senate-begins-solemn-absurd-impeachment
• Sussan Glasser on letter-from-trumps-washington/ass-backward-and-so-far-witness-free-trumps-senate-impeachment-trial-begins
• John Cassidy on our-columnists/how-to-debunk-trumps-false-claims-about-the-economy
• Barkley Rosser on i-am-glad-that-large-pro-gun-rights
• Institutional Economics on us-china-trade-deal-is-spin-for-trumps
• German Lopez on virginia-gun-control-laws-mass-shootings
• Barkley Rosser on covering-up-coverup

Europe

• Born Duben on no-end-sight-germany-s-troubles-huawei
• Stephen Kinsella on criticism-and-praise-in-the-run-up-to-the-2020-general-election
• Coppolla comment on the-ni-funds-reserves-dont-pay-down-national-debt
• stumbling and mumbling on a-case-for-nationalizing-pensions , inequality-under-new-labour , the-interest-rate-puzzle
• Mainly Macro on evidence-and-persistence-of-mistaken-ideas

Asia

• Robert E Kelly on another-year-north-korean-stalemate
• Simon Roughneen on real-winners-trade-war-might-be-found-southeast-asia
• Stephen Grenville on reports-china-s-economic-death-are-greatly-exaggerated
• Daniel Hurst on japan-struck-low-climate-ambition
• Lauren Williams on /kurds-are-caught-crossfire-between-us-and-iran
• Prakash Gopal on india-navigating-straits-capability

Wonk

• Carlisle Rchardson on un-paying-dues-and-having-say
• Erin Hurley on democratic-debate-big-distinctions-little-difference
• Tim Harford on salvator-mundi-and-the-limits-of-certainty
• sandwichman on what-is-most-useful-idea-in-economics
• the conversable economist on the-prisoners-dilemma-celebrating-its-70th-anniversary
• Nick Gruen on /the-economic-consequences-of-the-peace
• Stephen Simon on middle-east-trump-blunders-in
• Paul Fritjers on are-drugs-the-achilles-heel-of-stagnant-inequality
• Ian Mackay and Katherine Arden on should-we-be-worried-about-the-new-wuhan-coronavirus
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-climate-linked-financial-crises-loom-but-the-fix-isnt-up-to-central-banks
• Daniel Flitton on learning-extinction
• Tyler Cowen on how-bad-are-smart-phones-for-people-and-kids
• Croaking Cassandra on pandemics-and-the-economy

General

• Deborah Batesman and Kathleen McNamee on how-effective-is-the-pill
• Aaron Cavosie et al  on we-found-the-worlds-oldest-asteroid-strike-in-western-australia-it-might-have-triggered-a-global-thaw

Climate

• David Appell on pct-of-earth-with-warmest-and-coldest , about-temperature-changes-in-ocean , the-testable-falsifiable-science-that-supports-human-causes-of-warming
• hotwhopper on 2019-was-second-hottest-year-on-record-despite-no-El Nino
• Open Mind on 2-of-global-warming-since-1979-due-to-other-things, is-the-apparent-recent-acceleration-in-temperature-significant, ranges-overlap
• Cassandras Legacy on climate-change-concise-assessment-of-what-we-are-risking
• Rabett run on the-2015-2019-global-temp-average
• Will Steffen on scientists-hate-to-say-i-told-you-so-but-australia-you-were-warned
• John Cook on how did climate change get so controversial
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-carbon-prices-not-monetary-policies-are-the-tools-to-fight-climate-change
• renew economy on renewable-hydrogen-costs-could-halve-by-2030-beating-unabated-fossil-fuels

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• some-westlake-quotes
• pocket-kings-by-ted-heller
• top-5-literary-descriptions-of-poker
• correctness
• are-the-tabloids-better-than-we-give-them-credit-for
• the-latest-perry-preschool-analysis-noisy-data-noisy-methods-flexible-summarizing-big-claims
• the-intellectual-explosion-that-didnt-happen
• statschat on on-broadway , gender-pay-gaps
• Kaiser Fung on new-data-on-vaping

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• freakometrics on more on random dollars for everyone
• Menzie Chinn on david-romer-in-praise-of-confidence-intervals

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the grumpy economist on great-society-review
• Paul Ronalds on book-review-can-we-do-good-without-it-really-costing-anything 

vox wonk

• impact-ceos-public-sector
• cronyism-reduces-job-creation-lebanon
• pay-performance-insurance-markets
• refugees-and-foreign-investment
• green-deal-will-not-work-without-refocusing-productivity
• seigniorage-through-periodic-recoinage
• central-bank-independence-low-rates-new-risks
• paradox-stagnant-real-wages-yet-rising-living-standards-uk
• recruiting-practices-elite-universities-case-harvard
• contraceptive-technology-and-decline-marriage
• productivity-heterogeneity-and-variation-organisational-form
• fiscal-multipliers-during-european-sovereign-debt-crisis
• changing-nature-work-us

What do financial planners, mortgage brokers and Trivago have in common?

We learnt yesterday the Federal court ruled against Trivago . They were telling consumers they were getting the lowest cost deals.
In fact they were getting the deals Trivago got the largest commissions on.

Commisions are insidious. Consumers find it hard to find out exactly how much they are. Indeed in a lot of cases consumers think they are getting a service for free.

Financial planners and mortgage brokers gorge themselves on trailing commissions. They are a specialised form of commission. They are even  more insidious. Consumers get hit with a trailing commission each year every year.

Commissions in whatever form are not transparent indeed very opaque.

In both cases the people getting the trailing commissions are paid by the organisation who is selling the product. .Thus we can say both financial planners and mortgage brokers are simply part of the selling process of either investing or getting loans for housing.

They do not increase competition rather the opposite. It is not surprising the Present Liberal National government caved into mortgage brokers. It was the same thing with financial planners.
In neither case do they want to charge fees as then they would have to justify it.

Neither wants to put the consumer first just as Trivago had no intention of doing so.

Iran is a lot more potent than you think

The most important thing that occurred after Trump's act of war on Iran was Iran's response.

If the USA attacked or invaded Iran then we know Iran has the capacity to kill a hellva lot of yanks.

If you have to ensure the sanctions you have imposed against Iran work then you will have a lot of assets and thus people in an areas susceptible to attack by very fast and accurate ballistic missiles.

Iran gave the USA that message. The only problem is does Trump understand that.

Poll Update

With so much happening Kevin Bonham's update got by me somewhat.

Be wary of a poll when polls are not usually done and also of polling forms who won't tell you why they got it so wrong in the last election.

Mark the Ballot explores this yet again as an added bonus

McKenzie must go

The Auditor General released  report into sports grants by the Government just before the last election.
Just before I start here is Maria O'Sullivan on the issue.

It was devastating.

Community groups put a lot of effort to get grants for local sporting infrastructure.
Sports Australia then ranked the all of the proposals from the various sporting groups in order of importance ie merit.

The minister Brigid McKenzie then completely changed all this to putting most of the money into either marginal coalition seats they were protecting or ALP marginal seats they wanted to win.
Merit had NOTHING to do with the grants. This has similarities with Ros Kelly.

After some time she resigned as she should have. It was one of the main reasons Keating as Leader lost a lot of credibility. he was defending the indefeasible all because he did not want to give in to Opposition demands.

It is the same now. McKenzie must go. The longer it takes the more it will impact on Morrison who is already hit with credibility problems . Firstly defending Taylor and then the Bushfires fiasco.

I will finish by saying do not discount the red hot anger at all those community groups that missed out. all that time in writing a submission just for the minister to change things. Every community group now knows if they are not in a marginal seat then what is the point.

update:

I forgot two things

1) Sports Australia should have said to McKenzie NO instead of meekly accepting her 'suggestions'.

2) The is a possible legal problem here.

Around the Traps 17/1/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on financial-literacy-how-about-schools-fix-maths-etc-and-governments-free-up-the-housing-market, once-one-of-our-largest-towns , wages-and-the-economy , decomposing-the-nz-economy-and-australias , business-investment-and-snz
• Marc Hudson on watching-our-politicians-fumble-through-the-bushfire-crisis-im-overwhelmed-by-deja-vu
• Nancy Cushing on even-for-an-air-pollution-historian-like-me-these-past-weeks-have-been-a-shock
• Chris Wallace on bushfires-wont-change-climate-policy-overnight-but-morrison-can-shift-the-coalition-without-losing-face
• Mark O'Neill on australia-s-new-strategic-geography
• Rachel Withers on australia-was-warned-climate-change-bushfires
• Moyhu on a-trap-with-bushfire-area-statistics-in-australia
• Open Mind on australia-choose-your-future, australia-rain-seasonal-by-state, australia-choose-your-future
• Menzie Chinn on is-employment-growth-a-lot-lower-than-we-think
• John Quiggin on consumed-by-fire, economic-estimates-dont-account-for-tragic-bushfire-toll
• Kevin Bonham on newspoll-roasts-morrison-2019-polling-year-in-review
• Mike Lee on australias-bushfires-could-drive-more-than-700-animal-species-to-extinction-check-the-numbers-for-yourself
• Joellie Gergis and Geoff Cary on some-say-weve-seen-bushfires-worse-than-this-before-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-key-facts
• Renew Economy on coal-coal-coal-for-australia-as-bushfires-and-denial-greet-olympic-year, neoen-wants-tesla-big-battery-expansion-to-be-on-line-in-march, victoria-solar-farms-face-tighter-constraints-new-projects-may-be-blocked-from-grid, investors-slam-hard-line-stance-by-rule-maker-that-could-stop-wind-and-solar-projects
• Nicky Isson on taking-action-on-climate-is-hard-here-are-five-questions-to-help-australia-seize-this-moment
• Gabriel De Silva on bushfire-smoke-is-everywhere-in-our-cities-heres-exactly-what-you-are-inhaling
• Umair Irfan on australia-fires-climate-change-weather-extreme-heat-drought-flood
• Greg Jericho on the-bushfires-make-fiscal-stimulus-an-even-more-urgent-task-for-the-morrison-government
• Peter Whiteford on are-most-people-on-the-newstart-unemployment-benefit-for-a-short-or-long-time
• Jane Dixon on take-care-when-examining-the-economic-impact-of-fires-gdp-doesnt-tell-the-full-story
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-end-of-the-checkout-signals-a-dire-future-for-those-without-the-right-skills
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-two-big-c-issues

Northern America

• Katelyn Burns on trump-iran-esper-o-brien-four-embassies-why-soleimani-killed
• Erin Hurley on trump-walks-away-clean-soleimani-fallout
• Aaron Rupar on trump-inspector-general-michael-atkinson-tweet
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-inflation-above-2%
• New Deal Democrat on scenes-from-the-december-jobs-report-leading-jobs-sectors-and-wages, real-wages-declined-slightly-in-q4-2019-nearly-flat-since-last-january
• the conversable economist on who-are-current-main-players-in-federal-funds-market , why-are-men-detaching-from-labor-force , cultivated-ginseng-and-marathon-county-winsconsin
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-robert-hyde-stalk-ambassador-marie-yovanovitch
• Menzie Chinn on the-deal-much-ado-about-nothing, econofact-what-is-the-toll-of-trade-wars-on-u-s-agriculture
• Andrew Prokop on lev-parnas-maddow-trump-barr
• Fred Kaplan on intelligence-agencies-want-to-get-out-of-their-annual-congressional-briefing-so-they-wont-have-to-contradict-trump
• Tyler Cowen on what-to-make-of-the-new-u-s-china-trade-deal 
• Institutional Economics on judy-sheltons-threat-to-global-free-trade

Europe

• Mainly Macro on monetary-and-fiscal-cooperation-case
• stumbling and mumbling on two-conservatisms
• Graeme Gill on russian-government-resignation-whats-just-happened-and-whats-in-store-for-putin-beyond-2024

Asia

• Aural Braun on flight-ps752-a-deadly-combination-of-irans-recklessness-and-incompetence
• Geoffrey Dell on what-investigators-should-be-looking-for-in-the-iran-plane-crash-an-expert-explainsk
• Erin Cook on jakarta-flooding-and-its-governor-sinking
• Mustaffa Izzudin on india-has-left-rcep-behind-not-its-ambition-southeast-asia
• Nick Aspenwall on taiwan-voters-reject-beijing-not-populism
• Milton Osborne on another-dam-on-the-mekong
• Robin Wright on the-anger-and-anguish-fuelling-irans-protests
• Shirley Ze You on deng-s-pragmatism-china-s-poison-pill
• Jen Kirby on iran-protests-soleimani-trump-jcpoa

Wonk

• Ian Parmeter on iran-and-us-step-back-from-all-out-war-giving-trump-a-win-for-now
• Timothy Graham and Thomas Keller on bushfires-bots-and-arson-claims-australia-flung-in-the-global-disinformation-spotlight
• Tim Harford on how-sesame-street-set-a-gold-standard-for-education
• Barkley Rosser on can-us-assassination-of-qasem-solemaini-be-justified, further-followup-on-soleimani
• the conversable economist on concentration-and-competition-ambiguous-reelationships , the-evolution-of-exchange-rate-markets
• Ben Rich on political-assassinations-were-once-unthinkable-why-the-us-killing-of-soleimani-sets-a-worrying-precedent
• Tyler Cowen on the-best-available-fix-for-real-wage-stagnation
• John Quiggin on blackrock-is-the-canary-in-the-coalmine-its-decision-to-dump-coal-signals-whats-next
• John Daley and Emily Millane on might-the-bushfire-crisis-be-the-turning-point-on-climate-politics-australian-needs
• Kevin Tolhurst on we-have-already-had-countless-bushfire-inquiries-what-good-will-it-do-to-have-another
• Victor Abramowicz on impact-of-accuracy
• FRBSF on anchored expectations and the phillips curve Thanks Brad
• The Grumpy Economist on a-chilly-chilean-lesson

General

• Christine Jenkins on im-struggling-to-breathe-with-all-the-bushfire-smoke-could-i-have-undiagnosed-asthma
• The Angry Staff Officer on warfighter-helms-deep Thanks Brad
• Naman Zhou on before-and-after-images-show-scale-of-bushfire-devastation

Climate

• David Appell on here-we-are-in-non-el-nino-year-and-uah
• AGW Observer on papers-on-indian-ocean-dipole-iod-and-climate-change
• steven-pinker-on-torture
• Damien Carrington on ocean-temperatures-hit-record-high-as-rate-of-heating-accelerates
• Real Climate on one-more-data-point
• Moyhu on giss-december-global-up-by-011-from-november
• Andrew Blakers on how-an-aussie-invention-could-soon-cut-5-of-the-worlds-greenhouse-gas-emissions
• Peter Sinclair on nasa-the-hottest-decade

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• no-i-dont-think-that-this-study-offers-good-evidence-that-installing-air-filters-in-classrooms-has-surprisingly-large-educational-benefits
• linear-or-logistic-regression-with-binary-outcomes
• of-manhattan-projects-and-moonshots
• four-projects-in-the-intellectual-history-of-quantitative-social-science
• how-to-get-out-of-the-credulity-rut-regression-discontinuity-edition-getting-beyond-whack-a-mole
• will-decentralised-collaboration-increase-the-robustness-of-scientific-findings-in-biomedical-research-some-data-and-some-causal-questions
• in-bayesian-inference-do-people-cheat-by-rigging-the-prior
• graphs-of-school-shootings-in-the-u-s
• Michael J Brown on from-election-upsets-to-climate-chaos-rolling-the-dice-helps-us-appreciate-the-odds
• is-it-accurate-to-say-politicians-dont-actually-care-what-voters-want
• statschat on hard-to-treat-people-are-hard-to-treat
• Kaiser Fung on election-polls-politicking

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Freakometrics on on cochran theorem

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• automation-the-future-of-work-and-giraffes
• Alasdair Nicholson on book-review-where-power-stops
• stumbling and mumbling on great-economics-bad-politics

Vox wonk

• benchmark-interest-rates-when-government-risky
• political-information-age-internet
• effects-exam-scheduling-academic-performance
• lessons-and-policy-implications-policymaking-emu
• network-analysis-economic-history
• origins-microfinance
• informality-and-weak-competition-latin-america
• spillovers-and-optimal-design-macroprudential-measures
• post-crisis-evolution-monetary-policy-frameworks
• new-eu-level-playing-field-instrument
• us-monetary-policy-international-risk-spillovers-and-policy-options
• digital-money-implications-emerging-market-and-developing-economies
• monetary-policy-commodity-booms-and-busts

Tamino on Australia's future, temperatures ,rainfall

Tamino is an absolute gem when it comes to climate change. A stats guru who understands what is happening tp out planer.
Here are three recent articles all about us.

A wonderful read.

• trend-australia-trend-summer-trend-temperature-trend
• australia-choose-your-future
• australia-rain-seasonal-by-state

1917 Movie review

1917 is simply a fantastic movie. Read the link if you want to know the gist of the story.

The same people made Dunkirk which was equally sensational.

The only minor criticism is I just did not think Benedict Cumberbatch looked an officer.

Also who milked the cow and how were the orders readable?

Just go and see this movie. It is a bewdy

More Bushfire myths. 1974-5 was worse

Moyhu  has kindly come to our rescue on this. Jim Rose please read

As an added bonus

• bushfires-bots-and-arson-claims-australia-flung-in-the-global-disinformation-spotlight

There will be more so each time maybe I will show why they are wrong.

Around the Traps 10/1/20

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Nevelle Nicholls on the-bushfires-are-horrendous-but-expect-cyclones-floods-and-heatwaves-too
• Nicole Hasham on making-sense-of-australias-bushfire-crisis-means-asking-hard-questions-and-listening-to-the-answers
• Alex Oliver on new-year-australia-ravaged-coast 
• Ross Gittins on is-morrison-man-who-killed-aussie-summer
• Mike Kelly on bushfires Thanks Peter Whiteford
• Micharl Janda on climate-change-deniers-hinder-fire-response-says-business-group  Thanks Peter Whiteford
• Dale Dominey-Howes on australia-can-expect-far-more-fire-catastrophes-a-proper-disaster-plan-is-worth-paying-for
• Rod Keenan on theres-only-one-way-to-make-bushfires-less-powerful-take-out-the-stuff-that-burns
• Tony Walker on listen-to-your-people-scott-morrison-the-bushfires-demand-a-climate-policy-reboot
• Chloe Lucas et al on a-crisis-of-underinsurance-threatens-to-scar-rural-australia-permanently
• Nick Baker on how-a-climate-change-study-from-12-years-ago-warned-of-this-horror-bushfire-season
• Jason Alexendra and David Bowman on theres-no-evidence-greenies-block-bushfire-hazard-reduction-but-heres-a-controlled-burn-idea-worth-trying
• Stuart Khan on bushfires-threaten-drinking-water-safety-the-consequences-could-last-for-decades
• James Walker on scott-morrisons-biggest-failure-in-the-bushfire-crisis-an-inability-to-deliver-collective-action
• Peter Martin on in-fact-theres-plenty-we-can-do-to-make-future-fires-less-likely
• Sigal Samuel on australia-fires-billion-animals-dead-estimate
• Parliamentary Library on SmallBusinessSectorcontributiontoAustralianEconomy Thanks Pater Whiteford
• John Woinarski et al  on a-season-in-hell-bushfires-push-at-least-20-threatened-species-closer-to-extinction
• Dsvid Jones et al on weather-bureau-says-hottest-driest-year-on-record-led-to-extreme-bushfire-season
• Rosemary Williamson on how-should-leaders-respond-to-disasters-be-visible-offer-real-comfort-and-dont-force-handshakes
• The Kouk on the-misplaced-objective-of-the-government-of-delivering-a-surplus-come-hell-or-high-water-has-gone-up-in-smoke
• Ketan Joshi on australia-climate-disaster-denial-bushfires-online-rightwing-press-politicians
• Simon Holmes-A-Court on when-it-comes-to-emissions-the-too-small-to-matter-argument-is-absurd-reckless-and-morally-bankrupt
• Marc Hudson on watching-our-politicians-fumble-through-the-bushfire-crisis-im-overwhelmed-by-deja-vu

Northern America

• Rodger Shanahan on trump-s-unpredictability-confounds-his-allies-and-now-his-enemies
• Daniel Byman on trump-us-iran-news-war-soleimani
• New Deal Democrat on republics-and-the-war-making-power
• The Grumpy Economist on dudley-on-reserves
• Ian Millhiser on trump-2020-election-iran-soleimani-no-law
• Stevem Simon and Jonathan Stevenson on iran-case-against-war
• the conversable economist on does-fed-have-ammunition-to-fight-next-recession, a-glimpse-of-us-logistics-industry
• William Saletan on pompeo-lying-iran-soleimani-strike
• David Lawler on trump-iran-letter-iraq-withdrawal-soleimani
• Peter Beinart on iraq-and-iran-have-nationalists-too
• Peter Dorman on small-town-support-for-trump-and-'the-working-class'
• Institutional Economics on dont-bank-on-us-dollars-demise
• Alex Ward on trump-congress-iran-intelligence-briefing-soleimani

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on labours-public-opinion-dilemma, the-strange-death-of-libertarian-england
• mainly macro on was-remain-campaign-always-doomed

Asia

• Luca Trenta on qassem-suleimani-air-strike-why-this-is-a-dangerous-escalation-of-us-assassination-policy
• Dylan Scott on iran-general-killed-qassem-soleimani-world-war-3
• Barkley Rosser on is-chines-economic-system-mandarin, killing-abu-mahdi-al-muhandis 
• Ian Parmeter on will-trump-win-big-killing-soleimani
• Shahram Akbarzadeh on iran-vows-revenge-for-soleimanis-killing-but-heres-why-it-wont-seek-direct-confrontation-with-the-us
• Natasha Kassam on absurdity-shaping-taiwan-s-presidential-elections
• Khang Vu on north-korea-s-ambiguous-new-year-message
• Natasha Kassam and Richard McGregor on taiwan-s-2020-elections
• Lauren Williams on ending-iran-s-regional-ransom
• Syed Fazl-E-Haider on afghanistan-could-be-stage-us-iran-conflict
• Barkley Rosser on can-us-assassination-of-qasem-solemaini-be-justified

Wonk

• Tim Harford on exit-voice-or-loyalty-what-should-we-do-when-things-go-wrong
• Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendoca on making-stakeholder-capitalism-reality Thanks Brad
• The conversable economist on getting-to-know-milton-friedman

General

• Katie Lee and Monica Janda on 4-myths-about-sunscreen-and-why-theyre-wrong

Climate

• David Appell on here-we-are-in-non-el-nino-year-and-uah
• and Then Theres Physics on climate-sensitivity-in-cmip6-gcms, another-cmip6-climate-sensitivity-constraint
• Open Mind on trend-pat-michaels-and-ryan-maue-ride-the-crazy-train, bushfire-and-homophobia, trend-australia-trend-summer-trend-temperature-trend
• moyhu on december-global-surface-templs-up-0083-from-november
• Mahdokht Shaibani onbatteries-made-with-sulfur-could-be-cheaper-greener-and-hold-more-energy 
• Peter Sinclair on beds-are-burning-mike-mann-in-australia
• hotwhopper on its-climate-change-on-top-of-drought-heat-wind-not-arson-thats-behind-australias-firesriving
• Moyhu on murdochs-mendacious-myth-building-on-bushfires-and-arson
• Dana Nuccitelli on 2019-in-climate-science-a-continued-warming-trend-and-bleak-research
• Daniel Grossman on doubling-down-researchers-investigate-compound-climate-risks
• AGW observer on papers-on-the-climategate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• smoothness-or-lack-thereof-in-mrp-estimates-over-time
• open-forensic-science-and-some-general-comments-on-the-problems-of-legalistic-thinking-when-discussing-open-science
• votes-vs-$
• of-book-reviews-and-selection-bias
• royal-society-spam
• this-graduate-student-wants-to-learn-statistics-to-be-a-better-policy-analyst
• the-generalizer
• statschat on something-to-do-on-your-holiday, missing-data-2
• no-i-dont-think-that-this-study-offers-good-evidence-that-installing-air-filters-in-classrooms-has-surprisingly-large-educational-benefits

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on ice-free-arctic-summers-are-coming-very-soon

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• calculating-the-economy
• Tiffany Feng on book-review-betraying-big-brother

Vox wonk

• innovation-premium-soft-skills-low-skilled-occupations
• when-correspondence-studies-fail-detect-hiring-discrimination
• services-trade-policies-and-economic-integration
• polarisation-myth-europe-s-job-structure-upgrading
• long-term-earnings-dot-com-bubble-generation
• inequality-and-trade-simulation-evidence-54-developing-nations
• banks-and-government-bonds-love-story
• developing-policy-regime-support-free-flow-data
• shipping-networks-and-global-implications-local-shocks
• gender-neutrality-economics-role-editors-and-referees
• stock-market-responses-triggered-us-china-trade-war

Has Arson caused the bushfires

Those who push a cultural warrior barrow usually say two thing.
The bbushfires are the result of greenies stopping hazard reduction and arsonists lighting fires.

The ever excellent Hotwhopper delves very impressively into the latter topic to show it is completely  and utterly claptrap.

Moyhu weighs in on Murdoch.

THE ABC is a jewel in Australia

One thing stands out like a shag on a rock.

The ABC has simply been outstanding in its coverage of the bushfires.
It does not matter whether this is on a national stage or at the local level.

When there is a national emergency people tune to the BC to d find out exactly what is gong on.

nuff said.

Marohasy demolished again

We met Marohasy previously when she made some ahem inaccurate statements.

She is a right wing cultural warrior who is a classic climate change denialist.
She made statements to wit it has been hottest previously than this time. In 1938/9 to be precise using Rutherglen. She  also said fires have burnt greater areas.

This intrigued Tamino who then used BOM figures to see if this was correct.

It was not.
As an aside he is really impressed with the BOM database.

Around the Traps 3/1/20 New Years edition

It is time again in anther year and decade for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

• Nicole Lee and Brigid Clancy on what-causes-hangovers-blackouts-and-hangxiety-everything-you-need-to-know-about-alcohol-these-holidays
• Ross Gittins on living-in-post-inflation-era-turns-out-to-be-no-fun , government-on-cheap-leaves-us-burningly-reliant-on-charity
• Stephen Hamilton on simpler-tax-system-spark-joy-eliminating-tax-brackets-sadly-doesnt
• Amagretta Hunter on hot-and-bothered-heat-affects-all-of-us-but-older-people-face-the-highest-health-risks
• Leanne Cutcher and Graham Dwyer on i-can-still-picture-the-faces-black-saturday-firefighters-want-you-to-listen-to-them-not-call-them-heroes
• John Quiggin on slow-burn
• Hotwhopper on  australia-is-burning ,2019-goes-out-with-many-bangs
• Graeme Readfearn on what-stops-scientists
• The Kouk on  Whats ahead for Australia
• Umar Irfan on bush-fires-in-australia-now-photos-heat-red-sky-animals
• Miranda Stewart on tax-policy-little-help-squeezed-middle Thanks Peter Whiteford

Northern America

• Federal Reserve on Disentangling the effects of of the 2018-19 tariffs on a globally connected manufacturing sector Thanks Brad
• Menzie  Chinn on pictures-from-the-steel-trade-war, year-in-review-2019-victory-at-iad-and-other-alternative-facts
• The Interpreter on trump-circus
• Barkley Rosser on the-unreasonableness-of-policy-defense-of-trump, thiessen-balances-his-policy-defense-of-trump
• Dan Crawford on a-response-to-kevin-drum-for-wages-and-inflation-its-all-about-the-price-of-gas
• run75441 on paul-krugman-the-cruelty-of-a-trump-christmas-medicaid-work-reqmts-and-food-stamps-edition

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on yes-the-bbc-is-biased
• William J Burns on imagined-diplomatic-message

Asia

• Tyler Cowen on what-to-think-about-modi-these-days
• Zack Beauchanp on benjamin-netanyahu-immunity-request-knesset-elections
• The Scholar's Stage on so-begins-new-age-of-instagram-diplomacy Thanks Tyler Cowen

Wonk

• Tim Harford on cautionary-tales-ep-8-you-have-reached-your-desination
• the conversable economist on cs-lewis-on-temptations-of-mammon-and-moloch , judging-capitalism-by-its-operations, the-story-of-viners-draftsman, they-say-what-do-they-say-let-them-say, what-young-adults-of-1920-thought-of-the-world-they-were-inheriting
• Alex Tabarrok on extreme-aging
• Brad De Long on neoliberalism-are-we-sure-thats-the-right-word-talking-to-noah-smith
• sandwichman on 2020-hindsight-why-world-is-not-zero-sum
• stumbling and mumbling on wages-vs-social-value

General

• Brad De Long on a-note-on-reading-big-difficult-books

Climate

• Adair Turner on climate-change-technology-zero-carbon-economy
• and Then Theres Physics on listen-to-the-political-science, 2019-a-year-in-review
• David Appell on the-rankings
• The Interpreter on best-interpreter-2019-rising-climate-chorus
• Open Mind on zero-hour-in-oz-this-is-climate-change, precipitation-trend-in-new-south-wales

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• science-is-science-writing-science-writing-is-science
• do-we-still-recommend-average-predictive-comparisons-click-here-to-find-the-surprising-answer
• knives-out
• criminologists-be-allegedly-crimin
• it-happens-all-the-time
• progress-in-the-past-decade

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• econometric sense on some-recommended-podcasts-and-episodes-when AI-meets-machine-learning
• Freakometrics on pareto mpdels for risk management

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• measuring-progress
• enlightened-economist-prize-2019
• venture-capital-is-social-capital
• Stoat on book-review-homo-deus

vox wonk

• on holidays