Around the Traps 29/11/19

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Malini Sur and Eric Kerr on what-do-sydney-and-other-cities-have-in-common-dust
• Elise Bant and Jeannie Paterson on westpacs-scandal-highlights-a-system-failing-to-deter-corporate-wrongdoing
• Yee Fui-Ng on governments-commonwealth-integrity-commission-will-not-stamp-out-public-sector-corruption-heres-why
• Ian Fargher on how-westpac-is-alleged-to-have-broken-anti-money-laundering-laws-23-million-times
• Cate Carter on who-guards-guardians
• Croaking Cassandras on the-unimagiable-dystopias-we-live-in, shaky-groundwork, investment-capital-and-all-that
• Renew Economy on finkels-national-hydrogen-strategy-gets-green-light-but-could-be-lifeline-for-coal, states-go-it-alone-on-energy-after-coalition-buries-talk-of-emissions, outlook-for-clean-energy-hits-record-low-due-to-connection-issues-policy-vacuum, the-day-rooftop-solar-met-two-thirds-of-south-australias-total-demand
• Isaac Gross on the-rba-has-a-new-brain-it-has-thoughts-on-whatll-happen-after-interest-rates-hit-zero
• Stephen Duckett on greedy-doctors-make-private-health-insurance-more-painful-heres-a-way-to-end-bill-shock
• John West on shock-therapy-why-australia-needs-political-jolt
• Rodger Shanahan on typology-terror-background-australian-jihadis
• the Kouk on household-wealth-is-booming-what-this-means
• Greg Jericho on underpayment-low-productivity-and-slow-growth-were-in-a-good-place-eh-treasurer
• Paul Karp on lower-pay-rises-are-the-new-normal-reserve-bank-says
• Tony Walker on chinese-spy-case-may-be-the-greatest-challenge-to-australian-security-since-petrov-but-caution-is-needed
• Louis de Koker on westpacs-panicked-response-to-its-money-laundering-scandal-looks-ill-considered
• Patrick White et al on new-bradfield-rerouting-rivers-to-recapture-a-pioneering-spirit
• Ross Gittins on high-immigration-is-changing-aussie-way , qe-not-certain-not-soon-no-great-help-no-letout-for-govt
• Institutional Economics on now-we-know-the-reserve-bank-has-spelled-out-what-it-will-do when-rates -approach-zero
• James Pittock on fish-kills-and-undrinkable-water-heres-what-to-expect-for-the-murray-darling-this-summer
• Lesley Russell on what-is-the-pharmacy-guild-of-australia-and-why-does-it-wield-so-much-power
• Ian Wright and Jason Reynolds on how-drought-is-affecting-water-supply-in-australias-capital-cities
• Madeline Gleeson on behrouz-boochani-still-limbo
• Catherine Ganter and Andrew Watkins on a-hot-and-dry-australian-summer-means-heatwaves-and-fire-risk-ahead
• Terry Carney on robodebt-failed-its-day-in-court-what-now
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-lets-not-weep-for-westpacs-board-but-directors-do-need-help
• Kevin Bonham on the-new-newspoll-and-2019-polling-failure

Northern America

• Roger Farmer on taxing billionaires
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-october-new-home-sales
• Menzie Chinn on foxconn-as-case-study-of-targeted-development-subsidy
• Andrew Prokop on impeachment-trump-ukraine-aid-timeline-news
• Adam Serwer on trump-war-crimes
• Fred Kaplan on defeat-of-general-mattis
• Adam Gopnik on stop-saying-that-impeachment-is-political
• Brad Setser on trumps-sisyphean-task-bringing-down-us-trade-deficit-without-in-the-fall-dollar
• the conversable economist on thanksgiving-origins

Europe

• Mainly Macrro on is-labours-economic-plan-credible, in-defence-of-ifs-and-why-it-cannot-the-whole-story
• stumbling and mumbling on labours-corporate-tax-plans-a-half-defence, challenging-rightist-illiteracy

Asia

• Sheila Coronel on philippines-verdict-impunity
• Hannah Brown on iran-protests-gas-prices
• Taylor Dibbert on sri-lanka-rajapaksas-will-rule-ruthlessly
• Vivienne Chow on hong-kong-bright-side
• Barkley Rosser on complicating-aramco-ipo

Wonk

• Ronan Lyons on modelling-recent-developments-in-corporation-tax
• the conversable economist on the-return-of-patent-thicket , workplace-wellness-policies-disappointing-evidence
• Paul Fritjers on why-we-should-fear-a-world-empire
• JM Keynes on the economic consequences of peace Thanks Brad
• Suranga Seneviratne on the-ugly-truth-tech-companies-are-tracking-and-misusing-our-data-and-theres-little-we-can-do
• Jonathan Ketcham on reduce-alzheimer-clean-air Thanks Peter Whiteford
• Peter Fleming et al on uber-might-not-take-over-the-world-but-it-is-still-normalising-job-insecurity
• John Edwards on china-us-trade-war-all-bark-not-much-bite
• Sarah Logan on nazi-your-feed-regulating-social-media-and-hate-speech
• Bonnie Bley on 2019-global-diplomacy-index
• Brad De Long on smith-marx-keynes-cement-your-knowledge
• Robert Whitol on the-interpreter/new-mdbs-paradigm-shift-or-poor-imitation

General

• Maria Seton et al on what-are-lost-continents-and-why-are-we-discovering-so-many
• Coppolla comment on hitting-wall
• the conversable economist on advice-on-writing-from-amitabh-chandra
• Chris Mackie on explainer-the-story-of-demeter-and-persephone
• Robero Sonia on a-surprisingly-big-black-hole-might-have-swallowed-a-star-from-the-inside-out-and-scientists-are-baffled

Climate

• David Appel on ronald-bailey-cant-get-simple-stuff
• Moyhu on a-good-faith-article-by-recovering-sceptic-but-needs-care-with-sources
• and Then Theres Physics on methane
• Barkley Rosser on chaos-theory-and-global-climate-change
• Shaun Hendy on climate-explained-how-much-does-flying-contribute-to-climate-change
• Open Mind on climate-models
• Climate Citizen on un-emissions-gap-report-says-7.6%-emissions-reduction-required-, scientists-warn-climate-tipping-points-may-be-close

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• pitfalls-of-using-implied-betting-market-odds-to-estimate-electability
• whether-something-is-statistically-significant-is-itself-a-very-random-feature-of-data-so-in-this-case-youre-essentially-outsourcing-your-modeling-decision-to-a-random-number
• why-we-sleep-update-some-thoughts-while-we-wait-for-matthew-walker-to-respond-to-alexey-guzeys-criticisms
• a-reduction-in-error-rate-of-400-600-pretty-good-huh
• should-we-be-suspicious-of-the-vote-counting-in-bolivia
• why-bigger-sample-size-is-not-usually-where-its-at
• machine-learning-under-a-modern-optimization-lens-under-a-bayesian-lens
• life-expectancy-and-mortality-rates-in-the-united-states-1959-2017
• controversies-in-vaping-statistics-leading-to-a-general-discussion-of-dispute-resolution-in-science
• the-default-prior-for-logistic-regression-coefficients-in-scikit-learn
• in-short-adding-more-animals-to-your-experiment-is-fine-the-problem-is-in-using-statistical-significance-to-make-decisions-about-what-to-conclude-from-your-data
• Kaiser Fung on myth-standardizing-variables-makes-them-normal, the-harden-miami-link-thinking-about-indirect-metrics-in-an-analysis-plan, the-movement-to-topple-the-sat-is-a-fight-over-who-can-be-subjective

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-a-non-gaussian-macro-world

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• n
• Tyler Cowen on best-non-fiction-books-of-2019, favorite-fiction-of-2019
• Croaking Cassandra on work-income-technology-and-all-that

Vox Wonk

• germany-and-france-case-structural-convergence-euro-area
• humanitarian-aid-and-political-motives
• marriage-related-taxes-social-security-benefits-and-women-s-labour-supply-us
• foreign-born-entrepreneurial-human-capital-us
• new-evidence-broad-reach-pharmaceutical-payments
• understanding-low-wage-growth-euro-area
• marriage-fertility-and-cultural-integration-immigrants-italy
• don-t-blame-brussels-if-you-don-t-benefit-eu-cohesion-policy
• trump-s-trade-war-cost-republicans-congressional-seats-2018-midterm-elections
• dynamic-social-interactions-and-health-risk-behaviour
• business-dynamism-in-turkey
• electoral-sentencing-cycles
• unified-theory-public-basic-research
• optimal-policy-responses-growing-polarisation-occupations-space
• demographics-and-technology-explain-secular-stagnation-and-more

Some Climate models are OK

Tamino examines climate models and find they are quite reasonable in predicting what would happen.
It is important to note these models are different to those criticised by Andrew Gelman

Angus Taylor is on very thin ice

A police investigation is now been opened on Angus Taylor's infamous false figures about Sydney City council.
Before we start few people understand that false figures used in the public arena is a crime in NSW.

First of all it does not matter who refers anything to police. If they believe that a prima facie crime has been undertaken they will investigate to seek the truth. Trust me on this as my brother was a detective until his medical  retirement.

Secondly Taylor's defence that he downloaded the information from the City of Sydney's website has been blown out of the water. It is very easy to know if documents have been altered these days. The City council has shown what Taylor has alleged is absolute claptrap.
This means he has misled Parliament.

Thirdly he will have to show the police where he got the false information from. That person or persons will be prosecuted. If that person is Taylor it will show he is both a liar and corrupt. If it is not it will show he is a complete dope.
Either way his days as a minister are numbered. not a bad thing for the government as he is accident prone.

Scott Morrison's statement lead him to both ridicule and again showing poor judgement when the investigation is finally closed.
His parliamentary standards are not high which again shows his understanding of Christianity is very poor.

China: On two no three fronts

China is in the news her in OZ for Three reasons.

1) They attempted to plant an MP 

This is astonishing in its incompetence. They approach a Chinese born businessman who has a high level of debt from his car dealership and tell him they will back him with a cool $1b. He goes straight to ASIO with this and is mysteriously found dead soon after in a hotel  room.  Did these people do homework on him at all???
With Gladys Liu winning the east however has a 'Power without Glory ' episode occurred?

2) Hong Kong

The voters in Hong Kong gave the Chinese leadership a huge balk eye by voting massively for the pro-democrat parties. This result has tremendous  implications for the Lackeys of the Chinese leadership in Hong Kong and for the Chines leadership overall.

3) The Wigas

In a file dump we have learnt just how evil the Chines leadership is in its relentless approach to the Wiga people. Over a million in concentration camps for '-re-education' even though there is little evidence 'terrorism' is held high by these people. Families are uprooted and divided. only the Chinese language can be spoken.  That is only touching the surface.

Those people who thought the Chines nation would change as the economy became more capitalist are found to be badly wrong. However the same leadership is finding out ruling in a tyrannical way is proving much harder then they realised.

I do not have the answer to the Chinese problem however it is the worst time to have a blithering idiot in the Whitehouse!

The US/China trade war is harming communities in the USA

That is the title of an article from what I call Vox wonk last week by Michael Waugh.

An excellent read

Around the Traps 22/11/19

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Trent Penman et al on a-surprising-answer-to-a-hot-question-controlled-burns-often-fail-to-slow-a-bushfire
• Julian Bolletter and Christina Ramalho on god-save-us-greenspace-oriented-development-could-make-higher-density-attractive
• Greg Jericho on iif-you-cant-talk-about-climate-when-the-country-is-burning-when-can-you, australia-now-has-a-one-speed-economy-and-that-speed-is-slow
• Croaking Cassandra on people-from-poorer-countries-will-come-if-we-let-them, championing-social-democracy-not-productivity, spin-just-spin
• Janet Stanley on humans-light-85-of-bushfires-and-we-do-virtually-nothing-to-stop-it
• renew economy on cheaper-cleaner-smarter-how-wind-solar-and-batteries-are-changing-australias-grid, tesla-big-battery-adds-new-capacity-and-services-on-march-to-100pct-renewables-grid, cannon-brookes-twiggy-forrest-lead-capital-raise-for-worlds-biggest-solar-project

Northern America

• Erin Hurley on autocrats-anonymous
• David Roberts on impeachment-hearing-epistemic-crisis-has-arrived
• Menzie Chinn on making-america-great-again-in-indebtedness-net-international-investment-position, guest-contribution-yet-another-look-at-the-recent-inversion-of-the-yield-curve
• the conversable economist on is-opposition-to-immigration-primarily-cultural-or-economic, enhancing-federal-tax-collections-by-100b-annually
• Fred Kaplan on the-defeat-of-general-mattis
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-october-housing-starts
• Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Laura Bronner on most-americans-think-trump-committed-an-impeachable-offense
• Zach Beauchamp on impeachment-hearings-gordon-sondland-trump-livestream-timeline
• David Rohde on we-followed-the-presidents-orders-gordon-sondlands-testimony-likely-assures-trumps-impeachment
• Barkley Rosser on the-end-of-decaes-having-identities-in-the-USA

Europe

• Mainly Macro on the-tories-will-never-undo-impact-of-austerity, how-to-disguise-really-big-lie-put-it-on-a-bus
• stumbling and mumbling on why-we-cant-have-nice-things, ownership-and-productivity
• Tom Mctague on britain-lackluster-election

Asia

• Aarti Betigeri on ayodhya-verdict-and-unruly-consequences
• Michael Clarke on leaked-documents-on-uighur-detention-camps-in-china-an-expert-explains-the-key-revelations
• Syed Fazl-E-Haider on shifting-alliances-gulf-boon-china
• the conversable economist on chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-could-it-become-crashing-down, why-has-chinas-trade-surplus-just-about-gone-away
• Amanda Tattersall on university-under-siege-a-dangerous-new-phase-for-the-hong-kong-protests
• JJ Rose on how-china-winning-hong-kong-propaganda-war
• Alyssa Yeng and Roland Rajah on jokowis-curious-plan-for-indonesias-capital
• Mahmoud Pargoo on how-regime-extinguishes-iran-s-petroleum-protests

Wonk

• Henry Gao on trade-war-phase-one-deal-perpetual-peace
• Scepticlawyer on working-class-alienation-as-a-driver-of-political-polarisation
• John Quiggin on please-no-more-projections-what-we-need-are-predictions-and-theyre-harder
• David Zetland on big-data-helps-monopolies-not-you
• Eric Kramer on liberal-economists-are-open-to-persuasion-what-about-conservatives

General

• Silas Laycock on curious-kids-why-do-people-look-into-space-with-telescopes-but-not-binoculars
• Vincent Ho on what-are-parasites-and-how-do-they-make-us-sick

Climate

• David Appell on climategate-retrospectivel, giss-temperatures-accelerating
• Tamino on back-to-basic-climate-denial , summer-is-coming
• Climate citizen on serrano-glacier-retreating
• and Then Theres Physics on climategate
• Moyhu on giss-october-global-up-012-from-september
• Stoat on pielke-contra-mundum
• Cassandra's Legacy on climategate-10-years-later-what-can-we-learn-from-it
• Real Climate on 10-years-on
• Sarah Zhang et al on green-cement-a-step-closer-to-being-a-game-changer-for-construction-emissions
• Dana 1981 on here are 3 climategate myths that have not aged well
• James Renwick on climate-explained-why-coastal-floods-are-becoming-more-frequent-as-seas-rise
• Sophie Lewis on a-2-degree-world-that-is-a-bloody-disgrace
• AGW Observer on papers-on-the-climategate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• ballot-order-effects-in-the-news-im-skeptical-of-the-claimed-5-effect
• why-do-a-within-person-rather-than-a-between-person-experiment/
• in-research-as-in-negotiation-be-willing-to-walk-away-dont-paint-yourself-into-a-corner-leave-no-hostages-to-fortune
• is-matthew-walkers-why-we-sleep-riddled-with-scientific-and-factual-errors
• break-out-the-marshmallows-friends-ego-depletion-is-due-to-change-sign
• whats-the-evidence-on-the-effectiveness-of-psychotherapy
• what-does-a-statistically-significant-difference-in-mortality-rates-mean-when-youre-trying-to-decide-where-to-send-your-kid-for-heart-surgery
• statschat on test-for-breast-cancer

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on george-tauchen-70th

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• thinking-about-ai
• good-economics-and-expertise
• Mark Beeson on book-review-chance-actually-change-climate
• Stephen Grenville on book-review-china-us-and-big-break
• Tyler Cowen on favorite-jazz-listening-for-2019

Vox Wonk

• real-effects-money-supply-shocks
• exposure-frequent-price-changes-shapes-inflation-expectations
• politics-distraction
• institutional-change-and-development-lagging-regions-europe
• can-we-have-too-much-data
• us-china-trade-war-harming-communities-us
• women-european-economics
• trade-effects-wto
• wto-dispute-settlement-and-appellate-body-crisis
• interpreting-rotating-global-current-account-surpluses

Israel Folau right but mostly wrong on the bushfires

what occurs when an inexperienced christian gives a sermon. They get something badly wrong.

Someone has naturally beat me top it,
HERE it is

Hong Kong has reached the point of no return

Hong Kong will NEVER be the same again.
The formerly respected police force is seen as merely pawns of China who do their bidding. they get no respect these days from most people. The ruling elite is seen as the same. Pawns of China. Very poor politicians to boot.

In essence a lot of this can be put back to the UK. Why did they never introduce the democratic vote in Hong Kong as students there are now demanding.

We can be certain China will never given ion to any of the student's (and most other people's) demands at all.  I doubt if these people will ever support China at all.

China has destroyed Hong Kong as a city and I very much doubt it can be revived.

Is Backburning the answer to avoiding bushfires

Everyone is piling on saying thee just have not been enough backburning. It is the Green's fault even though this is a State responsibility and Greens are nowhere near power in any State.

Well well it appears there is  a-surprising-answer-to-a-hot-question-controlled-burns-often-fail-to-slow-a-bushfire.

Who would ever have thunked it.

Around the Traps 15/11/19

It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Frank Bongornio on nuance-and-nostalgia-labors-election-review-provides-useful-insights-and-inevitable-harking-back-to-hawke
• Trevor Thornton on another-coag-meeting-another-limp-swing-at-the-waste-problem
• Hussein Diaz on smart-tech-systems-cut-congestion-for-a-fraction-of-what-new-roads-cost
• Bart Ziino on why-australia-is-still-grappling-with-the-legacy-of-the-first-world-war
• Marcia Langton and Tom Calma on the-government-is-committed-to-an-indigenous-voice-we-should-give-it-a-chance-to-work 
• The Kouk on how-labor-lost-the-federal-election-so-badly
• Anthony Forsyth on no-a-complex-system-is-not-to-blame-for-corporate-wage-theft
• Alison Holland on the-governments-new-page-on-indigenous-policy-is-actually-just-more-of-the-same
• Andrew Fisher on the-milk-the-whole-milk-and-nothing-but-the-milk-the-story-behind-our-dairy-woes
• Ross Bradstock and Rachael Helene Nolan on drought-and-climate-change-were-the-kindling-and-now-the-east-coast-is-ablaze
• Peter Layton on australia-s-f-35s-lessons-from-problematic-purchase
• Croaking Cassandra on participation-rates, no-big-improvements-expected, good-in-a-few-parts-pretty-poor-otherwise, effective-communications-and-consistent-messaging-not
• Ross Gittins on confessions-of-pet-shop-galah
• renew economy on wind-and-solar-kill-coal-and-nuclear-on-costs-says-latest-lazard-report, renewables-sector-slams-new-network-pricing-proposals-says-it-will-kill-investment, tesla-big-battery-in-south-australia-is-about-to-get-bigger
• Rachel Badlan on firestorms-and-flaming-tornadoes-how-bushfires-create-their-own-ferocious-weather-systems
• Grace Moore on like-volcanoes-on-the-ranges-how-australian-bushfire-writing-has-changed-with-the-climate
• Ben Mathews on what-did-the-high-court-decide-in-the-pell-case-and-what-happens-now
• Brian Oliver on how-does-poor-air-quality-from-bushfire-smoke-affect-our-health
• Lin Crase on up-the-creek-the-85-million-plan-to-desalinate-water-for-drought-relief
• Greg Jericho on the-coalitions-wages-projections-are-beyond-a-joke-and-theres-bad-news-all-round
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-might-straight-down-the-middle-be-the-source-of-our-economic-success
• Wanning Sun on new-research-shows-chinese-migrants-dont-always-side-with-china-and-are-happy-to-promote-australia
• Edmond Roy on surviving-hell 

Northern America

• the conversable economist on us-dependence-on-imported-minerals , the-declining-share-of-veterans-among-prime-age-males, some-economics-of-clean-water-act, can-job-training-work-for-mature-adults
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-inflation-above-2&-YOY
• New Deal Democrat on how-economists-blew-the-analysis-of-the-manufacturing-jobs-shock, real-average-and-aggregate-wages-declined-in-october
• Andrew Prokop on impeachment-hearing-bill-taylor-trump-call
• Kim Wehle on trumps-real-offense-was-outsourcing-diplomacy
• Michael McFaul on the-deeply-dedicated-state
• John Cassidy on the-house-republicans-trump-impeachment-defense-is-full-of-holes
• Maggie Koerth on why-nonprofits-cant-research-gun-violence-as-well-as-the-feds

Europe

• Mainly Macro on the-differences-between-labour-and-conservatives-on-fiscal-policy, corbyn-and-antisemitism
• Allen Du Touit on russia-s-southern-strategy
• stumbling and mumbling on mass-under-employment, bad-faith-arguments

Asia

• Elliot Zaagman on beijing-s-cryptic-blockchain-gambit
• Chrristopher Snedden on india-draws-line-kashmir
• Khang Vu on north-korea-s-deadline-logic
• Alan Keenan on sri-lanka-s-election-threatens-return-authoritarian-rule
• Olesa Dovgalyuk on sco-style-economic-cooperation-treading-slowly

Wonk

• Logarithmic History on copernicus-versus-the-scientific-method Thanks Brad
• Tim Harford on hug-your-enemy-rather-than-wrestling-the-pig
• stumbling and mumbling on seeing-what-we-expect
• Nick Gruen on academia-from-inefficient-effectiveness-to-efficient-ineffectiveness
• Institutional economics on the-reserve-currency-myth-the-us
• John Edwards on us-and-china-inching-towards-deal-and-rethink
• Paul Fritjers on is-it-the-duty-of-the-state-to-police-a-positive-national-history-story
• the conversable economist on is-trade-still-viable-path-to-development
• scepticlawyer on firms-cities-states-who-has-open-borders-and-why

General

• Michele Muscova on oh-oh-oh-the-clitoris-certainly-gives-pleasure-but-does-it-also-help-women-conceive
• Andrew Whitehouse on its-25-years-since-we-redefined-autism-heres-what-weve-learnt
• Rachal Badlan on firestorms-and-flaming-tornadoes-how-bushfires-create-their-own-ferocious-weather-systems

Climate

• Moyhu on structure-and-implementation-of-methods-averaging-surface-temperature
• Tamino on global-temperature-update, gagging-climate-change-experts-from-speaking-in-the-middle-of-a-bushfire-disaster-is-a-new-low-from-this-government
• Stoat on how-scientists-got-climate-change-so-wrong
• No Hesitations on frbsf-on-climate-change
• and Then Theres Physics on contrarian-models, science-is-a-messy-process
• Arctic Sea Ice on piomas-november-2019
• Skeptical Science on new research for the week

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• battle-for-the-headline-hype-and-the-effect-of-statistical-significance-on-the-ability-of-journalists-to-engage-in-critical-thinking
• australian-polls-failed-they-didnt-do-mister-p
• when-prediction-markets-fail
• hey-participants-in-survey-experiments-arent-paying-attention
• the-hot-hand-and-playing-hurt
• to-do-construct-a-build-your-own-relevant-statistics-class-kit
• participate-in-brazilian-reproducibility-initiative-even-if-you-dont-live-in-south-america
• consider-replication-as-an-honor-not-an-attack
• what-if-its-never-decorative-gourd-season
• dow-jones-probability-calculation
• is-abandon-statistical-significance-like-organically-fed-free-range-chicken
• i-inadvertently-misrepresented-others-research-in-a-way-that-made-my-story-sound-better
• should-we-mind-if-authorship-is-falsified
• zombie-semantics-created-in-the-hope-of-keeping-most-on-the-same-low-road-you-are-comfortable-with-now-delaying-the-hardship-of-learning-better-methodology
• free range statistics on sampling-from-small-random-sample-is better than-a-huge-not-so-random-samples
• Kaiser Fung on myth-standardizing-variables-makes-them-normal, the-harden-miami-link-thinking-about-indirect-metrics-in-an-analysis-plan

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on panel-gls-w-arbitrary-cov-matrices

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• configuring-the-lumpy-economy
• John Fitzgerald on australia-real-and-imagined
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading-and-browsing

Vox wonk

• costs-using-regional-trade-agreement
• does-inflow-precious-metals-new-world-really-explain-great-inflation-renaissance-europe
• how-iphone-widens-us-trade-deficit-china-0
• economics-neutrality-world-war-ii
• world-war-ii-america-spending-deficits-multipliers-and-sacrifice
• political-colour-fiscal-responsibility
• resolving-missing-deflation-and-inflation-puzzles
• decline-rd-efficiency
• supplier-networks-key-wartime-production-japan
• quantifying-unemployment-effects-trump-s-protectionist-policies
• economic-warfare-insights-man-ur-olson
• real-effects-money-supply-shocks
• exposure-frequent-price-changes-shapes-inflation-expectations

Quantifying Trump's Protectionist Policies

Trump's protectionist policies do have economic consequences. In THIS article the three authors show they have negative employment ( and welfare)  consequences.

Ah the negative consequences of protectionism. We went through this in Australia in the 70s when they were always ignored!!

update:

Whoopsy did have wrong link. that all fixed now

Dairy Problems

Andrew Fisher helps us understand the problems of the dairy industry.

One should remember farmers get mostly the same amount of money for their milk no matter what 'brand of milk you buy. ( see last read more )

Drought and Climate change

Right on time here is an article examining this topic.
drought-and-climate-change-were-the-kindling-and-now-the-east-coast-is-ablaze.

Those who have direct experience have no doubt of this relationship.

Indeed they were very prescient!

This is very passionate.
Steve from Brisbane

As an added bonus direct from No Hesitations
frbsf-on-climate-change

The ALP loss and the last election

On Friday we had the report on why the ALP lost.

I am amazed people can be sooo confident of this when ALL the polls failed so badly.
So:

• The Pollbludger
• Frank Bongornio
• The Kouk

On the polling:

• Andrew Gelman
• when-prediction-markets-fail    related

Around the Traps 8/11/19

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andy Stewart et al on are-the-wallabies-struggles-a-sign-of-rugby-unions-decline-in-australia
• Oscar Serrano et al on australias-hidden-opportunity-to-cut-carbon-emissions-and-make-money-in-the-process
• Carol Johnson on is-the-morrison-government-authoritarian-populist-with-a-punitive-bent
• Joseph Ibrahim om the-aged-care-royal-commissions-3-areas-of-immediate-action-are-worthy-but-wont-fix-a-broken-system
• Peter Martin on we-asked-13-economists-how-to-fix-things-all-back-the-rba-governor-over-the-treasurer
• renew economy on south-australia-had-lowest-cost-of-supply-in-main-grid-in-october, solar-farms-warned-of-worsening-network-losses-in-nsw-victoria, south-australias-stunning-renewable-energy-transition-and-what-comes-next, australias-main-grid-reaches-50-per-cent-renewables-for-first-time
• Kirus Hiruy et al on asylum-seekers-left-desperate-and-helpless-when-they-try-to-find-work-in-australia
• Rachael Wakefield-Chann on recycling-plastic-bottles-is-good-but-reusing-them-is-better
• Graeme Orr on scott-morrison-wants-to-outlaw-boycott-campaigns-but-the-mining-industry-doesnt-need-protection
• Greg Jericho on all-the-government-spin-in-the-world-doesnt-put-more-money-in-peoples-bank-accounts, the-price-of-lamb-has-soared-200-since-the-90s-now-the-drought-is-sending-it-even-higher
• Melissa Conley on australia-is-spending-less-on-diplomacy-than-ever-before-and-its-influence-is-suffering-as-a-result
• Ross Garnaut on australia-could-fall-apart-under-climate-change-but-theres-a-way-to-avoid-it, three-policies-will-set-australia-on-a-path-to-100-renewable-energy
• Croaking Cassandra on officials-in-pursuit-of-more-powers, long-term-fiscal-choices
• Ross Gittins on mental-health-smart-way-to-increase
• John Williams on governments-seem-intent-on-trashing-john-howards-legacy-when-it-comes-to-water-reforms
• Institutional economics on the-treasurer-should-not-let-the-treasurer-off-the-hook
• Lin Crase on australias-drought-relief-package-hits-the-political-spot-but-misses-the-bigger-point
• Zoe Rathus on parental-alienation-the-debunked-theory-that-women-lie-about-violence-is-still-used-in-court

Northern America

• Robert Waldmann on it-would-not-be-safe-for-democrats-to-play-it-safe
• New Deal Democrat on october-jobs-report-paints-a-portrait-of-a-full-or-nearly-full-employment-economy
• Livio De Matteo on rising-health-spending-is-not-just-about-seniors
• Menzie Chinn on gross-vs-net-investment-pre-and-post-tcja
• Nate Silver on the-state-of-the-polls-2019
• FRBSF on is-rising-concentration-hampering-productivity-growth
• David Graham on more-we-learn-worse-it-looks-trump
• John Cassidy on trumps-own-donor-diplomat-blows-up-his-impeachment-defense
• Nathaniel Rakisch and Jeffrey Skelley on democrats-score-election-victories-in-virginia-and-probably-kentucky
• Clare Malone on the-7-ways-impeachment-could-shape-the-2020-election

Europe

• Mainly Macro on tactical-voting-advice-for-december-2019, libdem-fantasies-about-december-election
• stumbling and mumbling on the-rights-mega-rich-problem
• Donna Wet Brett on policing-the-berlin-wall-the-ghostly-photos-taken-by-the-stasis-hidden-cameras
• Notes on Liberty on the-myth-of-the-nazi-war-machine
• Matt Fitzpatrick on thirty-years-after-the-berlin-wall-came-down-germany-is-still-working-to-meet-east-with-west

Asia

• Jieh-Yung Lo on hong-kong-future
• Ian Hall on ndia-s-clever-alliances-island-states
• Barkley Rosser on the-aramco-ipo-stumbles-out-door
• Elliot Zangman on beijing-s-cryptic-blockchain-gambit
• Adnan Aamir on uncertain-fate-islamic-state-pakistan

Wonk

• Johan Lidberg on twitter-is-banning-political-ads-but-the-real-battle-for-democracy-is-with-facebook-and-google
• and Then Theres Physics on journalistic-norms-for-bloggers
• Open Mind on sea-level-pca-from-the-baltic-sea-to-el-nino
• Tim Harford on minimumwage
• John Quiggin on what-if-anything-is-neoliberalism
• Croaking Cassandra on 2019-vs-1969
• the conversable economist on some-thoughts-about-populism, flexible-vs-deep-what-are-ties-that-bind-a-firm-together, the-roundup-case-problems
• stumbling and mumbling on shoring-up-capitalism
• Jeffrey Wilson on india-s-rcep-exit-setback-not-disaster
• Peter Galbraith on betrayal-of-the-kurds
• Nick Rowe on boiling-frogs-slow-recoveries-are-deep-recoveries

General

• Nick Gruen on pedantry-is-not-its-own-reward
• Andrew Blakers on curious-kids-how-do-solar-panels-work
• Paulo De Sousa on climate-explained-why-mars-is-cold-despite-an-atmosphere-of-mostly-carbon-dioxide
• Peter Monteath on friday-essay-a-short-sharp-history-of-the-bayonet

Climate

• David Appell on ocean-heat-content-and-lost-island
• moyhu on october-ncepncar-global-surface-anomaly-up-from-september, october-global-surface-templs-up-0096C-from-september
• Thomas Newsonw and William Ripple on 11-000-scientists-warn-climate-change-isnt-just-about-temperature
• Essays concerning on do-tipping-points-mean-runaway-global-warming-after-12-years
• Fiona Hibbert et al on scientists-looked-at-sea-levels-125-000-years-in-the-past-the-results-are-terrifying
• real climate on sensitive-but-unclassified
• tamino on sea-level-align-the-aligned
• and Then Theres Physics on depolarising-the-debate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-dropout-rate-in-his-survey-is-over-60-what-should-he-do-i-suggest-mrp
• how-to-teach-sensible-elementary-statistics-to-lower-division-undergraduates
• the-paper-has-been-blind-peer-reviewed-and-published-in-a-highly-reputable-journal-which-is-the-gold-standard-in-scientific-corroboration-thus-all-protocol-was-followed-to-the-letter-and-the-work
• filling-emptying-the-half-empty-full-glass-of-profitable-science-different-views-on-banning-or-retaining-thresholds-for-statistical-significance
• the-incentives-are-all-wrong-causal-inference-edition
• have-prices-have-risen-more-quickly-for-people-at-the-bottom-of-the-income-distribution-than-for-those-at-the-top-lefty-window-breakers-wait-impatiently-while-economists-struggle-to-resolve-this-dis
• the-shadow-in-the-garden-by-james-atlas
• battle-for-the-headline-hype-and-the-effect-of-statistical-significance-on-the-ability-of-journalists-to-engage-in-critical-thinking
• Kaiser Fung on what-is-net-neutrality-and-why-im-staying-neutral

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Freakometrics on rethinking accountability and causation

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• mobile-internet-government-confidence-and-populism
• pragmatism-long-term-vision-should-prevail-euro-reform
• civil-rights-and-fertility-choice-us
• central-banks-and-sterilisation-capital-flows-first-era-globalisation
• impact-us-china-trade-war-japanese-multinationals
• automation-and-its-enemies
• liquidity-linkages-european-sovereign-bond-markets-can-amplify-fundamental-economic-shocks
• mobilisation-effects-multilateral-development-banks
• anchored-or-de-anchored-question
• waterbed-effects-macroprudential-policies
• east-asian-value-chains-exchange-rates-and-regional-exchange-rate-arrangements
• digital-euro-save-emu
• 20-years-european-economic-and-monetary-union-selected-takeaways-ecb-s-sintra-forum
• chaebols-and-firm-dynamics-republic-korea
• return-to-protectionism
• overcoming-contractual-incompleteness-role-guiding-principles
• challenging-path-ahead-commission-s-autumn-2019-forecast
• early-20th-century-american-exceptionalism
• impact-negative-interest-rates-banks-and-firms

A few points on the UK election

This is the first election in Winter in the UK since 1023.
It is cold, dark and rainy in the UK in winter. This might mean less people turn out to vote. It should affect old people more than young people and the referendum showed older voters were more likely to be in favour of Brexit..All in all it takes a brave man or woman to predict the winner of the election.

The other major issue is both the major parties have leaders who are unelectable.
Corbyn appears to think he is in 1946 in terms of his policies.
Johnson appears to be a Trump lite in terms of blatantly lying and work ethic.

If I was a pom I would vote for the Liberal Democrats..

There is no such thing as pay equality in sport

The absurd new deal the Matildas have gotten leads me to a politically incorrect assertion.

In sport, as opposed to the office, there is male sport and female sport.Please note if equality was here there would be no male or female sport just sport. The reason there is obvious. Females cannot compete with males.
Take the Matildas. they had a practice game against a team of teenagers some years ago and were THRASHED!
Female football  players simply do not have the balance or skill of their male counterparts.  In cricket the female spinners bowl pies and no female seems to be able to bowl side on thus they cannot swing the ball as l;ate or as much as their male counterparts. Please not they never ever have a speed gun on the female 'fast' bowlers. Why? Because they are not fast.

Let us go further. I know of no sport where attendances or TV ratings are as high for female sports as it is for male sports.
Again take the Matildas against the Socceroos. They play in stadiums mostly well away from the major cities in an attempt to make the crowds seem larger.

Let us take tennis. Females get as much money as males yet they only play against females. play less sets and have much lower ratings.

Let us face it.There is simply no such thing as equal pay in sport for females because they do not do EQUAL work.

Morrison contemplating silly laws

If we are to believe Scott Morrison the government is gong to ensure people who protest about environmental matters come under the secondary boycott provisions of the law.

Graeme Orr says the Mining industry doesn't need protection. I agree with him.

Just imagine I get involved in a demonstration against an imaginary financial institution that will provide fiance to Adani. It is imaginary because none want to.

Under this possible legislation I could be prosecuted for simply demonstrating ( pun intended) my democratic right. Yes that is how stupid it is. This is more evidence for Carol Johnson's thought on is-the-morrison-government-authoritarian-populist-with-a-punitive-bent.

Worrisome in the extreme.

Andrew Gelman unloads on climate models

Steve from Brisbane last week had a number of articles of how climate models have problems.

Well Andrew Gelman has joined this chorus.

Read the whole thing but quite some time ago he utterly demolished Richard Tol on this subject. He is utterly bewildered to d find William Nordhaus using Tol's techniques in his well known paper.

This all raises important questions for global warming. Most importantly have we been underestimating the costs of gobal warming