Statistical significance

Timothy Taylor of the conversable economist fame wrote an article last night entitled
time-to-abolish-statistical-significance
As the late Mr Spock would say interesting.

Dave Giles let us read more HERE

The wonderful Andrew Gelman as well. and AGAIN
Wow Economeric Sense weighs in also.

Sorry but the Conversable Economist has added THIS

Mueller Report

The Mueller report has not yet been released.
I see nothing gained by simply going off what a Trump appointed bureaucrat has said.
Let's wait until it is fully released before making prognostications.

Around the Traps 29/3/19

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on a-woefully-weak-tradables-sector , reading-our-censorship-act, updating-the-governors-view, /deferring-to-beijing, the-governors-talk
• Kevin Davis on sam-and-the-honest-broker-why-commissioner-hayne-wants-mortgage-brokers-to-charge-fees
• Peter Martin on frydenberg-should-call-a-no-holds-barred-inquiry-into-superannuation-now-because-labor-wont
• Ricardian Ambivalence on a-may-rba-cut-is-still-likely, the-rbas-consumption-trigger, the-right-way-to-think-about-job-vacancies, underwater-mortgages
• Warren Hogan on expect-tax-cuts-and-an-emptying-of-the-cupboards-in-a-budget-cleanout-as-the-billions-roll-in
• The Kouk on get-ready-for-a-cash-rate-cut-in-april
• Helen Dickinson on what-is-the-medicare-rebate-freeze-and-what-does-it-mean-for-you
• Pat Ranald on what-is-the-medicare-rebate-freeze-and-what-does-it-mean-for-you
• Andrew Dodd on did-al-jazeeras-undercover-investigation-into-one-nation-overstep-the-mark
• Ross Gittins on generational-conflict-comes-to-polling-place-near-you
• renew economy on no-new-coal-in-coalition-generation-shortlist-just-an-upgrade-gas-and-storage, renewables-and-storage-steal-the-show-at-governments-coal-party, australias-plunging-wind-solar-storage-costs-stun-fossil-fuel-industry
• Wanning Sun on chinese-social-media-platform-wechat-could-be-a-key-battleground-in-the-federal-election
• Samara McPhedran on guns-politics-and-policy-what-can-we-learn-from-al-jazeeras-undercover-nra-sting
• Lydia Khalil on case-prosecute-jihadi-brides-home
• Amelia Thorpe on labor-pledges-14m-funding-boost-to-environmental-defenders-offices-what-do-these-services-do
• Paul Burke et al on bad-news-closing-coal-fired-power-stations-costs-jobs-we-need-to-prepare
• Philippa Smith on the-challenge-of-drawing-a-line-between-objectionable-material-and-freedom-of-expression-online

Northern America

• Charles Tiefer on how-trump-and-barr-could-stretch-claims-of-executive-privilege-and-grand-jury-secrecy
• Daniel Flitton on mueller-illusion
• Macro Musings on the-fomc-decision-ngdp-perspective
• new deal democrats on and-the-10-year-treasury-yield-inverts, the-coming-slowdown-in-employment
• the grumpy economist on concentration-increasing, central-bank-independence
• Brad De Long on the-fed-board-unmoored
• Zack Beauchamp on donald-trump-mueller-report-barr-news-trust
• sandwichman on the-barr-letter-and-useful-idiots-of-the-jaded-left
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-february-housing-starts, real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio 
• Mohamed A El_Erian on inverted-yield-curve-doesn-t-necessarily-mean-recession-is-nigh Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on stephen-moore-federal-reserve. Thanks Brad
• Tim Duy on fed-needs-to-get-with-the-program Thanks Brad
• Barkley Rosser on maybe-no-conspiracy-or-coordination-but-lots-and-lots-of-collusion
• John Cassidy on more-questions-emerge-about-muellers-punt-on-obstruction-of-justice
• the conversable economist on child-care-in-economic-report-of-the-president
• Uneasy Money on arthur-burns-and-how-things-fell-apart-in-the-1970s
• Catherine Rampell on stephen-moore-says-hes-no-trump-sycophant Thanks Brad
• Adam Tooze on adam-tooze/is-this-the-end-of-the-american-century Thanks Brad
• Geoffrey Skelley on trumps-approval-rating-is-incredibly-steady-is-that-weird-or-the-new-normal

Europe

• Mainly Macro on labours-brexit-stance-was-tragedy-for-labour-but-the-current-Brexit-mess-is-an-entirely-Tory-failure, left-behind-movements
• stumbling and mumbling on the-consistency-illusion
• Menzie Chinn on uk-gross-fixed-capital-formation

Asia

• Brad Setser on why-chinas-incomplete-macroeconomic-adjustment-makes-china-2025-bigger-risk Thanks Brad
• Thomas Olsen-Boyd on stockholm-syndrome-social-media-can-shape-china-s-foreign-policy
• Nasneen Mohsina and Archana Atmakuri on the-interpreter/indian-elections-cinema-instrument-propaganda

Wonk

• Nicolas Pirsoul on we-need-to-stop-conflating-islam-with-terrorism
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-xi-and-trump-miss-a-chance-to-expand-markets
• Uneasy Money on james-buchanan-calling-the-kettle-black
• Tim Harford on just-because-youre-paranoid-doesnt-mean-the-algorithms-arent-out-to-get-you
• the conversable economist on what-did-gutenbergs-printing-press-actually-change, interview-with-greg-mankiw-at-dallas-fed
• Dina Badie on why-trumps-recognition-of-the-golan-heights-as-israeli-territory-matters
• the conversable economist on geoengineering-governance-problem
• Dan Drezner on the-worst-piece-of-conventional-wisdom-you-will-read-this-year Thanks Brad
• Macro mania on is-zlb-economic-or-legal-constraint
• noahopinion on guest-post-roy-bahat-on-uber-lyft-and-the-future-of-work
• Joseph Joyce on capital-flows-in-a-world-of-low-interest-rates
• Coppolla comment on why-central-bankers-dont-understand-inflation
• Croaking Cassandra on banking-without-interest

General

• Tyler Cowen on the-economic-ecology-of-jews-as-a-rural-service-minority
• Paul Rahe on was-there-a-spartan-mirage Thanks Brad

Climate

• Real Climate on alpine-glaciers-another-decade-of-loss
• and Then Theres Physics on an-attempt-to-do-a-bayesian-estimate-of-climate-sensitivity
• Skeptical Science on three clean energy myths that can lead to a productive climate conversation
• Bill McKibben on future-without-fossil-fuels

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stars)

• yes-i-really-really-really-like-fake-data-simulation-and-i-cant-stop-talking-about-it
• should-we-talk-less-about-bad-social-science-research-and-more-about-bad-medical-research
• jonathan-another-one-does-veronica-geng-does-robert-mueller
• statschat on the-breakthough-narrative
• mister-p-surveys-epidemiology-using-stan
• mcmc-does-not-explore-posterior
• people-like-big-business
• surgeon-promotes-fraudulent-research-that-kills-people-his-employer-a-leading-hospital-defends-him-and-attacks-whistleblowers-business-as-usual
• understanding-how-anova-relates-to-regression
• how-to-approach-a-social-science-research-problem-when-you-have-data-and-a-couple-different-ways-you-could-proceed
• the conversable economist on time-to-abolish-statistical-significance
• John Cook on elementary-solutions-to-differential-equations
• Kaiser Fung on going-bananas-over-this-seamless-ad

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• no hesitations on big-data-in-dynamic-predictive-modeling, ensemble-methods-for-causal-prediction
• freakometrics on roc curves

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-human-network
• Croaking Cassandra on did-an-experiment-deepen-and-prolong-the-great-recession
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox wonk

• eu-uk-global-value-chain-trade-and-indirect-costs-brexit
• women-s-liberation-financial-innovation
• incarceration-can-be-rehabilitative
• impact-within-group-conflict-trust-and-trustworthiness
• incorporating-sustainability-factors-macroeconomic-analysis
• impact-within-group-conflict-trust-and-trustworthiness
• initial-coin-offerings-fundamentally-different-highly-correlated
• worst-case-deadweight-loss-theory-and-implications
• monetary-policy-macroprudential-policy-and-financial-stability
• monetary-policy-and-labour-share
• disruption-and-credit-markets
• immigration-inequality-and-intergenerational-mobility-us
• border-regimes-and-knowledge-spillovers-through-supply-chain
• xi-and-trump-miss-chance-expand-markets
• 
  

One Nation is now MUD

One Nation is in a lot of trouble. They clearly went to the USA to get money from the obnoxious NRA and if  successful would try to water down gun laws here as a quid pro quo.
See HERE, HERE and HERE

One Nation is adopting the Trumps strategy of very bad news. Make up something that will appeal to their base.
This will probably work as we hear of Al Jazeera being a mouthpiece of the Qatari Government ( it isn't), It was an operation by a foreign company attempting to subvert Australian polity ( it wasn't) , they were entrapped ( they were not)and everything else.
Those hardcore supporters won't move and will  believe everything said. Poorly educated voters have swallowed guff like this ever since Goebbels mastered such an art many years ago however there will be some people who will say goodbye to One Nation on this issue and visit other small parties.

update:
Oh dear Pauline Hanson believe there was a conspiracy concerning the port arthur massacre. Of course she does let us remember she is not very intelligent. however this does change my views above.

THIS is also useful

Further Update:
Hanson was a joke yesterday. She claimed things were taken out of context but failed to produce the context. She also claimed there was heavy editing but had not viewed the program.

Cricket season is over

Last weekend saw finals in the local competition. Unfortunately there is no stand alone NDCA competition and it is a combined NCU competition.
Of the four finals played locally ( two on turf two on artificial) only ONE innings was over 100 runs.
In first grade the first side batting got 42 runs ( pitch affected by rain during the week). The second side was 9/42 when the bowler who was bowling around the wicket then bowled over the wicket. Only one problem he did not tell the umpire. No-ball and match over thank you.

In my match one side had a few players i had coached in the past. It was enjoyable. Unfortunately the Juniors final was very unpleasant. If some players behave like they did on Sunday then they will be suspended. Such a shame.

The NSW election

Well the election is over. I had to pre-poll as i was umpiring all day. I had the chance of seeing my local member Vic Dominello. He looked as though he bought his suit from Lowes and he obviously had no idea of how to tie a tie!

The similarities with Victoria were eerie.
A tight election up to a week to go and then people sorted out what they wanted to do. In Victoria the ALP went very federal and won big time. On the other hand apart from some photos of Abbott, Dutton and Morrison we barely heard of the feds.
In particular the ALP leader was awful in the last week. Whilst his comments on young chines PhDs was not racist it showed ignorance big time. Daley the ALP leader lost his all the energy he gained when he faced down the ignorant and boorish Alan Jones
Indeed Daley had a lot going for him after this confrontation but he wasted all the positive momentum he had gained..His Chinese comments as I said showed ignorance. People do not like ignorant leaders ( except for the National party of course).
The current premier did not have a good campaign at all. People's memories have been erased by the poor performance of the ALP leader in the last week.

In the washup it appears Daley will be challenged by Chris Minns. although well educated Minns appears to have been a party apparatchik or staffer before entering politics. Not a great look.
Also important here he was the opposition spokesman on water. given this he was the one who should have been the person pointing out all the blunders of the National party and coming up with concrete proposals to improve the situation.  This should have been a godsend to the ALP to markedly improve their position in the bush. It was not. Minns was to blame here.  This shows Minns is not the answer to the ALP problems.

One interesting thing was the ALP, unlike the Libs with Julia Gillard, did not say anything about Gladys being single indeed she does not even have a boyfriend!

Whoopsy I should have mentioned the appearance of john Howard. He literally looked like the living dead. Age has not been good for him.

Around the Traps 22/3/19

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on ultra-low-wage-growth-isnt-accidental-it-is-the-intended-outcome-of-government-policies, higherwages, ,whats-happening-to-the-australian-dairy-industry
• Greg Barton on christchurch-attacks-are-a-stark-warning-of-toxic-political-environment-that-allows-hate-to-flourish
• Michael Woods and Sarah Wise on would-you-like-to-grow-old-at-home-why-were-struggling-to-meet-demand-for-subsidised-home-care
• Ricardian Ambivalence on another-view-on-the-credit-crunch, the-rba-just-gave-notice, a-may-rba-cut-is-still-likely
• Lynn Phillipson and Louise Smith on as-home-care-packages-become-big-business-older-people-are-not-getting-the-personalised-support-they-need
• Michael Douglas on politicians-suing-for-defamation-is-usually-a-bad-idea-heres-why 
• Croaking Cassandra on easy-to-do-business-bad-place-for-business, why-is-the-deputy-prime-minister-going-to-istanbul, agricultural-sector-productivity-growth, rereading-the-un-compact-on-migration
• Melissa Haswell and David Shearman on expanding-gas-mining-threatens-our-climate-water-and-health
• Kristy Campion on right-wing-extremism-has-a-long-history-in-australia
• Renew economy om how-the-tesla-big-battery-kept-the-lights-on-in-south-australia
• Mark Crosby on no-better-than-roulette-how-foreign-exchange-trading-rips-off-mum-and-dad-investors
• Barbara Peacock on jobs-but-not-enough-work-how-power-keeps-workers-anxious-and-wages-low
• Rick Sarre on will-the-new-zealand-gun-law-changes-prevent-future-mass-shootings
• Martin Gurri  on christchurch-enters-nightmare-peculiar-our-times 
• Greg Jericho on house-prices-keep-dropping-and-theres-no-end-in-sight

Northern America

• Gabriel Schoenfeld on trump-supporters-say-the-darndest-things Thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on alternatives-to-four-year-college-track-for-everyone-else, wealth-consumption-and-income-patterns-since-1950, the-remarkable-renaissance-is-us-fossil-fuels, reentry-from-out-of-labor-market
• David Leonhardt on trump-trade-deficit Thanks Brad
• the grumpy economist on less-listing
• Sandwichman on no-more-fed-rate-hikes-in-2019
• Brad De Long on this-has-certainly-been-one-crazifying-fed-tightening-cycle

Europe

• Mainly Macro on brexiters-are-stopping-brexit-because-they-need-to-believe-in-the-fantasy-of-global-britain
• Philomena Murray on nine-days-and-counting-what-options-does-the-uk-have-before-the-brexit-deadline
• Simon Lee on theresa-may-requests-short-brexit-extension-how-to-understand-this-reckless-move
• Robert Breunig on the-government-is-right-immigration-helps-us-rather-than-harms-us
• stumbling and mumbling on against-retail-politics

Asia

• Aart Betigeri on india-never-quite-focus
• Gulizar Haciyakupoglu and Wu Shang-Su on china-social-credit-system-black-market-and-inequalities
• Archana Atmakuri  and Eosni Kapur on peace-afghanistan-tumultuous-road-ahead
• Edmond Roy on rahul-gandhi-reluctant-leader-bid-topple-india-modi
• Eugenie Merieau on thailand-military-junta-election-king
• Brad Setser on fall-chinas-current-account-surplus-was-not-replicated-across-asia

Wonk

• growth economics on the deep roots of development
• economic principals on austerity id defunct
• Nick Gtuen on scaling-knowledge-should-our-disciplines-have-mesh-or-tree-like-relation-to-each-other
• Croaking Cassandra on modern-monetary-theory-old-school-fiscal-practice
• The Grumpy Economist on /monopoly-in-history
• Tyler Cowen on a-reverse-austrian-business-cycle-theory
• Tim Harford on is-life-a-bet-or-an-experiment
• stumbling and mumbling on on-class-difference
• coppolla comment on a-fine-example-of-crypto-ignorance
• Tim Harford on is-life-a-bet-or-an-experiment
• Robert Waldmann on tax-the-rich
• Eric Lonergan on reply-to-stephanie-kelton
• Larry Summers on responding to critiques of secular stagnation Thanks Mark
• Peter Dorman on introductory-econ-textbooks-a-different-take-on-the-issues
• institutional economics on unbroken-productivity-and-worker-compensation-in-australia-and-the-united-states
• Jennifer Percival and Rodger Shanahan on who-bears-responsibility-children-isis

General

• Joe Burton on four-lessons-we-must-take-away-from-the-christchurch-terror-attack
• Paul Fritjers on the-guru-recipe
• Chris Allan on extreme-far-right-picknmix-ideologies-and-direct-messaging-online-make-for-deadly-new-combination

Climate

• David Appell on 20th-anniversary-of-hockey-stick
• Moyhu on giss-february-global-up-005-from-february

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• estimating-treatment-effects-on-rates-of-rare-events-using-precursor-data-going-further-with-hierarchical-models
• are-male-doctors-better-for-male-heart-attack-patients-and-female-doctors-better-for-female-heart-attack-patients
• when-and-how-do-politically-extreme-candidates-get-punished-at-the-polls
• maybe-its-time-to-let-the-old-ways-die-or-we-broke-r-hat-so-now-we-have-to-fix-it
• he-asks-me-a-question-and-i-reply-with-a-bunch-of-links
• retire-statistical-significance-the-discussion
• new-golf-putting-data-and-a-new-golf-putting-model
• John Cook on riffing-on-mistakes
• Kaiser Fung on do-wearable-healthcare-devices-work

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• a-world-beyond-p-005
• No Hesitations on neyman-pearson-classification, the-housing-risk-premium-is-huge

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• morals-and-markets-2
• Brad De Long on a-bakers-dozen-of-books-worth-reading

Vox Wonk

• geopolitics-bilateral-trade-agreements
• financial-crisis-and-right-wing-extremism-germany-1931-33
• effect-board-reform-gender-gap-firms
• china-overinvested-coal-power-here-s-why
• central-bank-digital-currencies-and-private-banks
• subjective-wellbeing-focus-median-not-mean
• brexit-delay-will-not-postpone-deglobalisation
• work-past-work-future
• compliance-and-fairness-community-based-taxation
• public-versus-private-digital-money-macroeconomic-irrelevance
• regulating-fintech-ignore-duck-type-or-code
• monetary-policy-times-uncertainty

Failing banks and the Nazis rise to power

That is the title of a  paper by various people.

As the late Mr Spock would say fascinating

Why did China over invest in coalpower?

An interesting article in vox wonk as I call it on the above topic.
Around 50% of coal plants faced financial loss in 2018.  A number of authors try to explain why China got into this position and why it will take time to get out

Brian Fisher has little credibility

I note another 'study' by Brian Fisher on the future energy market. Se more HERE.

The problem fisher has is his assertion of years gone by that renewables would not be competitive with coal fired power by 2030.
Unfortunately for him new solar is now cheaper than coal and wind is almost there/

Fisher  needs to explain why he got this VITAL assumption so badly wrong.
As can be seen in his model his assumptions simply have not been brought up to date at all.

Until his detailed explanation on this any 'research' of his is simply not worth a spit.

Christchurch attack

I was going to write something wise and discerning about the Christchurch attack however Greg Barton beat me to it.

This has origins in the infamous tampa election of 2001.
Demonising asylum seekers is what the Liberal party did back then. They knew the punters were conflating people fleeing Afghanistan where they were being persecuted with several men who had viciously and wantonly raped women in Sydney. they did not care. They knew if they played this absurdity up they were home electorally. They did even lying about 'these people' throwing their children into the sea.

How ironic they went into this again with gusto about asylum seekers/refugees who are criminals being allowed into Australia for treatment. No mention of why there were any asylum seekers at al. No evidence of anyone accused of criminal activity and then we learned they would go to Christmas Island. apparently those already in Australia are okay but those to come are not.

I should end in  saying how similar what Tarrant was saying and how supporters of Isis say. delete white civilisation and insert islamic civilisation.

People always murder when they can rationalise why they are denying the other person's humanity.

Around the Traps 15.3/19

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie.Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on in-defence-of-capital-charges-and-higher-public-sector-discount-rates, an-establishment-perspective, powerful-unelected-public-appointees, an unserious organisation, what-is-going-on-with-residence-approvals, kudos, has-monetary-policy-run-its-course, almost-unbelievable, spending-just-as-we-have-for-decades, /i-guess-you-learn-who-your-friends-are
• Ricardian Ambivalence on australias-ngdp-problem, another-look-at-nominal-household-income, the-case-for-may-rate-cut
• Martine Maron et al on to-reduce-fire-risk-and-meet-climate-targets-over-300-scientists-call-for-stronger-land-clearing-laws
• Ross Gittins on economists-lonely-misunderstood-angels-shining-armour
• Christine Schlesinger and Barry Judd on the-summer-bushfires-you-didnt-hear-about-and-the-invasive-species-fuelling-them
• Tom Sear on the-internet-is-now-an-arena-for-conflict-and-were-all-caught-up-in-it
• Andrew Blakkers on australian-model-renewable-energy-transition
• Paul McCardle on the-death-of-baseload-power-in-australia-and-the-rise-of-cycling
• Greg Jericho on since-the-coalition-won-government-in-2013-our-living-standards-have-gone-down
• Mathew Hounsell on which-lines-are-priorities-for-sydney-metro-conversion-hint-its-not-bankstown
• Guy Debelle on climate change and the economy
• Roland Rajah on orthodox-economic-take-climate-change-shocks
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-medevac-fails-to-shift-dial
• Giles Parkinson on wind-solar-farms-to-be-blacked-out-for-up-to-100-days-due-to-grid-upgrade
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-its-one-thing-to-back-down-on-haynes-recommendation-about-mortgage-brokers-its-another-to-offer-nothing-in-its-place

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-job-during-various-presidential-terms, key-measures-show-inflation-about-same-in-february, a-few-comments-on-january-new-home-sales
• Livio De Matteo on hopefully-tomorrow-wont-be-yesterday
• the conversable economist on benjamin-franklin-and-origins-of-daylight-savings-time, us-imposes-tariffs-and-2018-trade-deficit-rises: lessons, sources-of-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions
• Brad Setser on taking-managed-trade-seriously-what-would-deal-tries-close-bilateral-deficit-need-look
• FRBDallas on the neutral rate of interest rate Thanks Mark
• Antonio Fatas on the-2020-us-recession Thanks Mark
• Joseph Stigilz on united-states-economy-rising-market-power Thanks Mark 
• Amy Davidson-Sorkin on what-pelosi-meant-impeaching-trump-hes-just-not-worth-it
• the grumpy economist on fed-vs-narrow-banks
• Tyler Cowen on how-much-time-do-criminals-really-serve
• Bradford De Long on three-federal-reserve-hedges-against-recession
• Austen Goolsbee on recession-shutdown-trade-war Thanks Mark
• Jeffrey Sachs on trump-dangerous-absurd-trade-wars Thanks Mark

Europe

• Mainly Macro on is-german-debt-brake-worst-fiscal-rule-the-worst-fiscal-rule-ever, if-you-enjoyed-last-two-years-and-want-more-of-the-same-vote-for-May's-deal, triangulation-or-bipartisanship-does-not-work
• Barkley Rosser on is-russia-becoming-neo-socialist-nep
• Martin Gellermann on fisheries-and-brexit-slippery-affair
• Yasmeen Serhan on failed-brexit-vote-theresa-may-sympathy
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-ecb-has-reached-the-end-of-its-rope-leaving-the-eurozone-with-few-options

Asia

• Monika Ansell et al on indias-grand-experiment-in-corporate-social-responsibility-is-heading-for-trouble
• Suti Bhatnagar and Priya Chacko on india-pakistan-and-the-changing-rules-of-engagement-heres-what-you-need-to-know
• Greg Raymond on military-front-line-thai-election
• Taylor Dibbert on sri-lanka-politics-overthrows-justice
• James Chinn on new-malaysia-four-key-challenges-near-term
• Brad Setser on chinas-still-too-high-savings-makes-china-2025-bigger-global-risk Thanks Mark

Wonk

• John Quiggin on monopoly-too-big-to-ignore, why-is-carbon-pricing-so-hard
• Mohamed A. El Erian on mainstream-economics-must-learn-from-others Thanks Brad
• Larry Summers on the-lefts-embrace-of-modern-monetary-theory-is-a-recipe-for-disaster Thanks Mark
• microeconomic insights on tax-evasion-and-inequality-evidence-from-scandinavia Thanks Mark
• Understanding Society on the-morandi-bridge-collapse-and-regulatory-capture Thanks Mark
• Tim Harford on why-inflation-is-good-for-us
• stumbling and mumbling on matches-matter
• Dani Rodrik on bold-evidence-based-economics Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on diffraction-through-debt-the-cash-flow-effect-of-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
• Economic Principals on a recipe for creating structural change Thanks Mark
• Macromania on sustainable-deficits, the-chicago-booth-survey-on-mmt
• Peter Dorman on whats-new-about-fake-news
• Robert Waldmann on neoliberals-passing-the-baton
• the conversable economist on the-story-of-william-lee-and-his-knitting-machine, greg-mankiw-on-textbooks-and-some-reactions, some-peculiarities-of-labor-markets
• Angus Deaton on crisis-of-capitalism Thanks Mark

General

• Caillan Davenport on guide-to-the-classics-tacitus-annals-and-its-enduring-portrait-of-monarchical-power
• John Cook on average-distance-between-planets
• Tyler Cowen on was-concentrated-big-business-behind-the-nazi-rise 
• Christopher Davies and Christine Bottcher on a-warning-for-wine-lovers-climate-change-is-messing-with-your-favourite-tipples-timing

Climate

• Desmog on global-warming-hiatus-climate-change-myth-refuses-die
• and Then Theres Physics on the-honest-broker, the-plausibility-of-rcp8-5-part-ii
• Skeptical Science on  the temperature evolution after 2016 suggests a hotter future
• Stoat on minor-note-re-ipcc-1990-fig-71c

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• remember-that-paper-we-wrote-the-mythical-swing-voter-about-shifts-in-the-polls-being-explainable-by-differential-nonresponse-mark-palko-beat-us-to-this-idea-by-4-years
• political-polarization-and-gender-gap
• junk-science-legal-system-disaster
• stan-forums-im-just-thirsty-learn-thread-become-fountain-knowledge
• something-i-noticed-about-this-college-admissions-scandal
• the-third-pillar-how-markets-and-the-state-leave-the-community-behind
• one-more-reason-i-hate-letters-of-recommendation
• John Cook on census-bureau-differential-privacy 
• Kaiser Fung on too-much-information-as-bad-as-no-information

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• forecasting-from-regression-with-square-root-dependent-variable
• update-for-new-canadian-macroeconomic-database
• forecasting-after-inverse-hyperbolic-sine=transformation

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• democracy-and-injustice
• economists-utilitarians-and-individuals
• xian on sorcerer-to-the-crown-book-review
• Tyler Cowen on culture-in-nazi-germany
• John West on book-review-partnership-transformed
• Nick Gruen on review-of-empty-planet-the-shock-of-global-population-decline-guest-post-from-simon-molloy

Vox Wonk

• home-internet-access-and-child-development
• doomsday-economics-proof-work-cryptocurrencies
• russia-great-war-mobilisation-grain-and-revolution
• firm-financing-after-global-crisis
• accounting-macro-finance-trends
• bank-networks-and-systemic-risk-great-depression
• household-credit-cycles-and-financial-crises
• monetary-policy-and-wage-rigidity
• money-digital-cash-and-cryptocurrencies-privacy-matters
• monetary-policy-and-wage-rigidity
• revisiting-efficacy-ecb-s-balance-sheet-policies
• what-s-wrong-wto-s-environmental-goods-agreement
• revisiting-efficacy-ecb-s-balance-sheet-policies
• impact-ai-and-information-technologies-worker-stress
• geopolitics-bilateral-trade-agreements
• financial-crisis-and-right-wing-extremism-germany-1931-33
• effect-board-reform-gender-gap-firms

Elections, who to vote for, poll roundup and all that stuff

Well we have a State election coming up soon and then a federal election probably in may so why not write about elections and all that stuff.
How I vote
I never vote on policy although I write about it a lot. My voting philosophy is allow a party two terms and two terms only and then vote them out. You vote for whoever is in opposition no matter how poor they seem to be.
Thus I will be voting Labor in both the State and National elections after voting Liberal in previous elections.
This has two clear advantages. A party hopefully will not be in power for too long.
you do not get wedded to one party.

What to watch out for
You read a lot about 'internal party polling. Most of it is pure codswallop and the Journos know it but publish it anyway because they have nothing else to write about. I have little more to add to THIS when I wrote about it in 2016.  I will add THIS on seat polling.
Right you are forewarned.

Poll update
Here is Kevin Bonham's latest article on this  topic.

My Thoughts

I tend to think the NSW election will be very close. normally the Libs should be cantering but the Stadiums issue has bitten very hard. Also the dead fish has lead to changes in the bush re environment and the Nats is seen as having little credibility on this issue.
The Federal election should be a walkover for the ALP. It is clear those in government are terrified about losing their seats and don't care if others do as long as they do not. Hence the support for a coal fired power station by Queensland Nats. The proposal is absurd but they seem to think it may stave off people voting for one nation.
They do not care if most people see this as more instability. It is no coincidence this came after the release of the latest Newspoll.. I expect more outbreaks like this. Indeed I would think it surprising that the government does not resort to desperate measures

The RBA on climate change

Guy Debelle who is deputy governor of the RBA gave a very thoughtful speech last night entitled Climate change and the economy

Read and enjoy

The death of baseload power

courtesy of Renew Economy an article by Paul McArdle on the-death-of-baseload-power-in-australia-and-the-rise-of-cycling.

Beware it is long and fairly technical but very interesting and informative.

As an added bonus here is a dated article by John Quiggin on the-myth-of-baseload-power-demand

What is antisemitism and what isn't?

Peter Beinart writes an insightful and highly thought provoking essay on this very topic, He asks is anti-zionism is anti-semitic!

I told you it was provocative.

Van the Man

There have been quite a few great singer/songwriters. Bob Dylan, The Boss, Neil Young. Joni Mitchell, Jackson Browne et al but perhaps the best of all has been Van the Man.

Moondance is one of the alltime great albums.

however when I watched him in Sydney he was awful.
I have a greek friend who every time I meet him goes on and on about the concert he saw Van Morrison in the UK. 15 minute versions of Caravan, into the Mystic and Queen of the slipstream seem to get longer and better with each telling!!

My favourite track of Van the Man is indeed Queen of the slipstream so here it is.

Around the Traps 8/3/19

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Cecilia Bescheri on townsville-floods-show-cities-that-dont-adapt-to-risks-face-disaster
• Anna Skarbek and Anna Malos on we-can-be-a-carbon-neutral-nation-by-2050-if-we-just-get-on-with-it
• Greg Barton on national-security-is-too-important-to-be-abandoned-to-the-politics-of-fear
• Croaking Cassandra on standing-for-what-they-believe-in, banking-crises-are-bolts-from-the-blue, unelected-officials-wielding-too-much-power, shipley-and-the-china-council, the-china-council-defends-itself, read-this-and-weep
• Ricardian Ambivlance on the-gdp-beauty-pagent, average-wages-dump-in-q418, the-gdp-v-jobs-non-puzzle
• Harry Clarke on the-case-for-a-consumption-based-carbon-tax
• Ross Gittins on who-pays-for-google-and-facebooks-free-lunch, beware-of-groupthink-on-why-economys-so-weak, how-to-lose-water-waste-money-and-wreck-the-environment
• Steve Hatfield Dodds on droughts-extreme-weather-and-empowered-consumers-mean-tough-choices-for-farmers
• Geoff Hammer on lacrosse-fire-ruling-sends-shudders-through-building-industry-consultants-and-governments
• The Kouk on is-the-aussie-economy-slowdown-good-or-bad-news-for-you
• Pat Ranald on its-more-than-a-free-trade-agreement-but-what-exactly-have-australia-and-indonesia-signed
• Dennis Muller on australian-governments-have-a-long-history-of-trying-to-manipulate-the-abc-and-its-unlikely-to-stop-now
• Liam Finagan and Stephen Noakes on new-zealand-much-ado-about-china
• Peter Whiteford on future-budgets-are-going-to-have-to-spend-more-on-welfare-which-is-fine-its-spending-on-us
• Roger Dargaville on five-gifs-that-explain-how-pumped-hydro-actually-works
• Greg Jericho on the-terrible-gdp-figures-leave-the-coalitions-economic-narrative-in-tatters
• Tony Walker on no-matter-who-wins-the-next-election-managing-the-china-relationship-will-be-tricky-and-vital
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-australias-sudden-ultra-low-economic-growth-ought-not-to-have-come-as-surprise

Northern America

• the conversable economist on what-newfangled-rent-control-looks-like, work-is-what-funds-retirement, some-economic-consequences-of-near-extinction-of-buffalo, us-corporate-debt-warning-signs
• Tyler Cowen on the-impact-of-the-trump-trade-war
• New Deal Democrat on december-housing-permits-and-starts-mixed-support-slowdown-scenario-2
• Brad De Long on passing-the-baton-the-interview, the-federal-reserve-has-taken-doing-the-right-thing-off-the-table
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-december-new-home-sales

Europe

• Mainly Macro on parliaments-brexit-game-has-anything

Asia

• Wan Chenjun and Richard McGregor on four-reasons-why-china-supports-north-korea
• Barkley Rosser on irans-foreign-minister-is-out
• Khang Vu on kim-and-trump-again-north-korea-s-drives-wedge

Wonk

• Roger Farmer on there-are-many-unemployment-rates-for-any-r
• Eric Lonergan on stock-prices-neutral-rate-interest
• Tim Harford on how-high-should-the-top-rate-of-tax-be-and-who-should-pay-it
• Robert Waldmann on mmt
• Kenneth Rogoff on modern-monetary-theory-dangers Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on running-on-mmt-wonkish Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on the-1%-vs-the-01%
• Elise Thomas on huawei-indictments-allegations-and-politics
• promaket on the-biggest-puzzle-in-economics-why-the-superstar-economy-lacks-any-actual-superstars,when-the-interests-of-monopolists-and-authoritarians-coalesce Thanks Mark
• liberty street on global-trends-in-interest-rates ,the-sensitivity-of-long-term-interest-rates-a-tale-of-two-frequencies Thanks Mark
• Mainly Macro on is-increasing-workers-bargaining-power-a-way-of-raising-real-wages
• Catal Guomard on does-airport-price-regulation-offer-lessons-for-protecting-the-public-from-overcharging-for-public-investment-projects
• Henry Farrell on the-transformation-of-left-neoliberalism
• Christine Romer and David Romer on the effects of marginal tax rates Thanks Brad
• John Quiggin on mmt-and-the-scope-for-seigniorage
• Skepticlawyer on piety-display-not-virtue-signalling
• Daniel Woker on global-significance-electoral-showdown-europe
• Eric Lonergan on redesigning-monetary-policy
• Brad De Long on which-interest-rate-on-on-falling-neutral-real-rates-fiscal-policy-and-the-risk-of-secular-stagnation
• Paul Beinart on debunking-myth-that-anti-zionism-is-antisemitic
• the conversable economist on why-economist-usually-oppose-new-light-rail-and-subways
• stumbling and mumbling on against-the-output-gap

General

• Alexandra Hansen on we-asked-five-experts-is-vegetarianism-healthier
• Yasmine Probst and Joel Craddock on eat-your-vegetables-studies-show-plant-based-diets-are-good-for-immunity
• Jacqui Moran on all-about-juries-why-do-we-actually-need-them-and-can-they-get-it-wrong

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on /marios-room
• Dan Smale and Thomas Wernberg on suffering-in-the-heat-the-rise-in-marine-heatwaves-is-harming-ocean-species
• Shaun Brooks and Julia Jabour on for-the-first-time-we-can-measure-the-human-footprint-on-antarctica
• moyhu on february-ncepncar-global-surface-anomaly-up-0.097C-from-january
• Kerrylee Rodgers et al on rising-seas-allow-coastal-wetlands-to-store-more-carbon
• and Then Theres Physics on guest-post-on-coral-alarmism
• Open Mind on sea-level-rise-sea-level-lies
• Giles Parkinson on did-morrison-and-taylor-listen-when-snowy-belled-the-cat-on-coal-costs
• Desmog on fact-check-greenland-ice-cores-proxy-past-present-climate-change

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• yes-not-only-am-i-suspicious-of-the-claims-in-that-op-ed-im-also-suspicious-of-all-the-individual-claims-from-the-links-in-these-two-sentences
• journalist-seeking-scoops-is-as-bad-as-scientist-doing-unreplicable-research
• yes-design-analysis-no-power-no-sample-size-calculations
• back-to-basics-how-is-statistics-relevant-to-scientific-discovery
• abandon-retire-statistical-significance-your-chance-to-sign-a-petition
• corpus-single-survey
• the-neurostatistical-precursors-of-noise-magnifying-statistical-procedures-in-infancy
• Kaiser Fung on excel-error-but-could-happen-in-any-tool

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• some-recommended-econometrics-reading
• No Hesitations on standard-errors-for-things-that-matter, significance-testing-as-noise-amplifier

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• austerity-revisited

Vox wonk

• rational-self-medication
• why-contingent-convertible-bonds-aren-t-everyone
• immigration-and-wage-dynamics-after-mexicos-peso-crisis
• schumpeterian-role-banks
• france-inequality-and-social-elevator
• noise-stock-prices-matters-real-economy
• firms-expectations-inflation-matter-new-evidence
• impact-population-ageing-monetary-policy
• economics-fintech-and-digital-currencies-new-ebook
• spatial-correlation-and-inequality
• central-bank-digital-currency-concepts-and-trends
• microeconomic-favouritism-macroeconomic-populism
• how-finance-affects-income-inequality

Tamino slays them again

I admit I do like Open Mind which is the site of 'Tamino'.

His latest missive is on seal level rise. He is brutal but honest in showing ahem doubtful practices.

On a relayed area in Australia is THIS article explaining pumped hydro.

the ALP will create a recession

Now Morrison is on this dreadful act.
The only way we could gauge this is by examining their fiscal policy in detail. At this stage no-one knows it except for the implication by Bowen the structural position will be in better position than the government whom we know is doing their darn best to make it deteriorate via tax cuts. However this is not saying much!

In Morrison's  incoherent rant he put all their tax increases into one figure and  impact in one year. He said this would blast the economy.
They ain't doing that . They are doing it over a decade. I do note the treasury has recently said the government has exaggerated some of the ALP's proposals.

It doesn't look good politically. It makes Morrison  look desperate and simply unbelievable.

how do we boost wages?

Ricardian ambivalence has more evidence on the weakness of the labour market.
Greg Jericho alludes to this as well.
RBA Governor Lowe is almost pleading for wages to rise . It appears waiting for wages to eventually rise is liking waiting for Godot!

I'm sure some people who dislike neo-liberalism will say re-regulate the labour market and this does have a superficial respectability however there is one HUGE problem.
The Unions are vastly weaker now than in previous times. Wages might increase in some areas but not overall.
I cannot see this trend  slowing let alone reversing.

As can be seem I have no answer to the question I have posed. We have entered the era of labour market de-regulation and could well look to the USA to see how this pans out

Should Ita be Chair of the ABC

The government has appointed Ita Buttrose to chair the ABC despite the fact she never applied to do so.

Who does not like Ita?  I like her.

My problem with her is that her media experience is very dated. She essentially has no experience of how the internet is affecting the media.
She has little experience of chairing  committees and the ABC is committees in spades.

however it must be said few Chairs of the ABC have and she certainly looks to be infinitely superior to her predecessor but that is not saying a lot.

We shall see.

On the ABC I was amused to hear Gerry Henderson say Malcolm Farr was a leftist who was employed by News Limited. Only Gerry and his fellow travellers could believe such guff.

Do Labour markets clear

Apologies for being a bit humdrum since the new year started. Perhaps a bit of melancholy.

Frances Coppolla some time ago had a great article to read entitled why-labour-markets-dont-clear.  In it she links to Roger Farmer.

I think it is essential reading if you wish to get your head around labour markets.