On Holidays

I am going down to the Snowy with the family so nothing from me for about a week.
The wife has banned computers and using the internet.
Thus NO Around the Traps this week!

Around the Traps boxing day Edition 26/12/14

Merry Chrsitmas Christmas even, It is time for Around the Traps again.
Given the holidays this will be updated, if it needs to be, at leisure over the weekend.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mumble on scott_down_julie_to_go , robbo_gone
• Kevin Bonham on poll-reporting-unfair-to-hockey
• Andrew Elder on a-slight-change-of-emphasis
• Michael Brull on man-haron-monis-terrible-ayatollah-and-even-worse-terrorist
• David Singer on Islamic State: The bogeyman haunting the Lindt chocolate cafe
• Brendan O'Reilly on Commentators have the wrong take on Sydney siege
• Jim Rose on the-sky-city-bailout-it-is-common-for-private-sector-mega-projects-to-fail 
• The Piping Shrike on home-front-an-update
• The Kouk on the-australian-economy-is-in-need-of-some-medicine
• Cricket on third-test-the-mcg with tone and the Boys. Language can be soso

Northern America

• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-asked-and-answered-mostly , fed-watch-looking-backward-to-see-the-future
• Brad De Long on  -rick-perlstein-in-democracy-journal-on-why-jacob-weisbergs-reviewing-license-should-be-withdrawn
• Calculated Risk on katie-couric-and-net-petroleum-exporter-myth , a-few-comments-on-november-existing-sales , comments-on-new-home-sales , review-ten-economic-questions-for-2014, ten-economic-questions-for-2015  question-10-for-2015-how-much-will-housing- , inventory increase , question-9-for-2015-what-will-happen-with-house-prices , question-8-for-2015-how-much-will-residential-investment-increase
• Robert Waldeman on investment-and-interest-rates-ii , investment-and-interest-rates-iii-what-taylor-rule, g-and-gdp-during-the-current-recovery ,
• Stephen Gordon on doug-saunders
• David Beckworth on the-federal-reserves-dirty-little-secret
• Kruggers on nothing-non-gold-can-stay, recession-recovery-and-gold
• Mark Thoma on what-5-percent-means
• Menzie Chinn on the-boom-forecasted
• Matt O'Brien on now-that-the-dow-has-hit-18000-let-us-remember-the-worst-op-ed-in-history Thanks Brad
• Steve Roth on why-you-probably-dont-understand-the-national-accounts-in-pictures
• Barkely Rosser on are-keynesians-desperate-about-1921
• Progrowth liberal on monetary-policy-during-1921-recovery
• Miles Kimball on the-new-republican-majority-should-keep-doug  Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on quantitative-levitation

Europe

• Barry Eichengreen and Petra Geraats on how-bank-england-failing-transparency-test Thanks Mark
• Barkely Rosser on wither-the-ruble.
• Philip Lane on not-quite-checkmate-for-the-bundesbank-germany-appears-defeated-over-qe-but-might-still-dictate-terms-of-surrender

Asia

• Noah Smith on time-for-gaijin-to-take-second-look-at-Abe's womenonics
• Pierre Ly and Cynthia Howson on chinese-vintners-are-winning-renown-as-wine-industry-soars
• Kruggers on structural-confusion

Wonk

• Miles Kimball on righting-rogoff-on-japans-monetary-policy
• James Hamilton on do-falling-oil-prices-raise-the-threat-of-deflation
• Nick Rowe on language-games-and-expectations-of-doing-nothing , a-proof-of-the-need-for-fiscal-policy-to-escape-the-liquidity-trap
• Noah Smith on commie-commie-commie-commie-commie-k
• Robert Waldeman on on-smith-on-cochrane-on-keynesians 
• Brad De Long on if-you-had-told-me-twenty-years-ago-that-the-people-the-wall-street-journal-put-on-its-op-ed-page-would-put-on-its-Oped-page
• Dean Baker on beat-the-press/john-cochrane-versus-the-keynesians  Thanks Mark
• Barkley Rosser on more-piling-on-cochrane-why-he-cannot-be-taken-seriously-even-about-asset-pricing 
• Cullen Roche on botching-the-keynesian-autopsy  Thanks Brad
• Richard Green on the-limits-of-knowledge-in-economics1 , the-limits-of-knowledge-in-economics2 , the-limits-of-knowledge-in-economics 3 , the-limits-of-knowledge-in-economics 4 Thanks Mark
• David Glasner on forget-the-monetary-base-and-just-pay-attention-to-the-price-level
• Kruggers on fiscal-policy-at-the-zero-lower-bound-again
• Noah Smith on do-higher-taxes-make-us-work-less
• Daniel Little on underinvesting-in-public-good Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on growth-rates-and-levels-again
• Peter Dorman on a-great-book-on-great-depression

General

• Tim Harford on you-really-really-shouldnt-have
• Nick Gruen on global-roaming-srsly-what-gives
• Anitha George on going-straight-work-programme-suits-some-prison-leavers-more-others
• Lord Keynes on are-all-facts-theory-laden
• Michelle Pace and Rene' Wildangel on how-we-are-permanently-destroying-gaza
• Ahmed Souaiaia on this-is-what-arab-spring-looks-like

Climate

• Real Climate on absolute-temperatures-and-relative-anomalies
• Rabett run on what-we-have-here-is-failure-to-communicate
• Rob Painting on Record-Breaking-Sea-Surface-Temperatures-in-2014-Has-the-Climate-Shifted
• Brian Banisch on explaining-the-pause-that-wasnt

Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)

• hard-publish-criticisms-obtain-data-replication
• research-benefits-of-feminism
• using-statistics-make-world-better-place
• trajectories-achievement-within-raceethnicity-catching-achievement-across-time
• common-sense-and-statistics
• im-sure-anti-polya-attitude-completely-unfair
• try-answering-question-without-heading-wikipedia
• anti-woodward-bernstein

Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Nuttin from Dave.Its Christmas you know!

• the-demise-of-great-ratio

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• eating-people-is-wrong , fast-and-slow-thoughts-about-extended-warranties , rogues-and-capitalists
• Nick Gruen on testament-of-youth-breaking-free-of-the-boilerplate
• Kruggers on the-secret-history-of-filing-cabinets
• Mohi Kumar Jolly on the-compound-behind-all-those-stories-about-red-wine-being-good-for-you
• Tim Harford on what-if-we-abolished-christmas
• Philip Lane on marios-twelve-days-of-christmas-by-gavin-kostick
• Scientific American on santa-traditions-around-the-world  Thanks Mark

Vox Wonk

• migration-and-network-effects-friends-vs-acquaintances
• liquidity-driven-foreign-direct-investment
• beyond-basel-iii
• lacklustre-investment-eurozone-policy-response
• learning-disagreement-evidence-forecasters
• combatting-eurozone-deflation-qe-people
• christmas-economics-challenging-some-common-beliefs
• not-really-cricket-home-bias-officiating
• commodity-prices-down-dollars-euros
• bank-resolution-under-t-lac-aftermath

Merry Christmas

My church did a wonderful rendition of Dr Seuss meets the new Testament. It was both a hoot and a great teaching vehicle.

I have a confession I don't like most Christmas carols but  This is the best song written of all time by Handel.

Have a great one.

Jesus was born to die for us. Until he rose from the dead no-one realised this. Thomas was correct when he said ' My Lord and My God"

John Robertson departs

I was never a fan of John Robertson however I agree with the Pollbludger in that he has resigned because he 'performed a routine bit of electorate work in 2011 on behalf of constituent Man Haron Monis'

The NSW ALP have to choose a new leader in early January. Daly appears to have it in the bag but he is not impressive either.  The NSW right really do not have a lot of talent around at the moment and as Mumble continually shows know bugger all about interpreting polls.

Mumble has now written on this. I can't see Luke Foley getting up as he is from the left wing of the party.

Cabinet Reshuffle

Tony Abbott has made a cabinet reshuffle. The Pollbludger has it all.
Here is Mumble's take on it.

I find it fascinating that the Government has been hauled from breakfast to dinner over its 'unfair' ,measures. Kevin Andrews as minister for social services must take a lot of the blame for that yet gets transferred to Defence. Some say it is even a promotion. I am with Mumble on what it means for Scott Morrison. A nimble way to get rid of threats.

Economic Wonkery

There were some great articles  in Around the Traps for those that like in depth discussion of economics.
These are mainly dealing with monetary policy and variations thereof.

Paul Krugman

• the-limits-of-purely-monetary-policies
• the-simple-analytics-of-monetary-impotence-wonkish
• more-macro-modeling-meta

Nick Rowe

• helicopter-money-is-normal-or-else-were-doomed
• monetary-policy-is-always-and-everywhere-about-expectations

Edward Lambert

• monetary-reflections-more-to-come-in-2015

Simon Wren-Lewis

• money-impotence-in-context

Chris Dillow 

• deficits-interest-rates
• the-fiscal-monetary-mix

Brad De Long 

• hate-blurred-lines-monetary-policy-fiscal-policy

David Glasner    (late but very welcome he links David Beckworth's great aerticle to boot)

• forget-the-monetary-base-and-just-pay-attention-to-the-price-level

Update

Poltergeist is expelled and all links work now. Thanks M0nty

Around the Traps 19/12/2014

It is time for Around the Traps again.
I have a family Christmas do on Saturday so will update on Sunday!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Jim Rose on further-evidence-of-the-dynamic-deregulated-nature-of-the-new-zealand-labour-market , did-the-world-bank-just-solve-the-puzzle-of-low-nz-growth-relative-to-australia
• Andrew Elder on the-end-of-peta-credlin
• Max Chalmers on contractors-work-slashed-nauru-after-year-rocky-relations-scott-morrison
• Michael Bruli on kids-collateral-how-scott-morrison-used-children-detention-hostages
• Mumble on why_greatness_will_probably_elude_joe
• Greg Jericho on the-coalitions-rhetoric-on-the-budget-have-come-back-to-haunt-them , as-australias-population-ages-the-burden-on-the-workforce-is-growing
• The Kouk on open-for-business-the-australian-economy-since-the-election , the-abbott-government-s-crazy-spending-spree
• Paul Fritjers on an-myefo-mystery-whats-with-the-resource-tax
• Ben Eltham on myefo-confirms-hockey-lost-economic-fog-sets , year-review-turns-out-we-were-listening-wrong-politician
• Ross Gittins on there-has-to-be-more-to-our-future-than-the-budget , midyear-forecasts-do-add-up-sort-of
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-2014-year-review , poll-reporting-unfair-to-hockey
• Binoy Kampmark on Exaggerating the terrorist threat
• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-polls-first-15-months-of-the-Abbott-Government

Northern America

• Robert Waldeman on investment , us-investment-discounted-profits-and-irrational-exuberance , investment-and-interest-rates
• Brad De Long on marcy-wheeler-dick-cheney-lied-us-into-war
• W J Astore on the-torture-was-the-message  Thanks Brad 
• Majorie Cohn on torture crimes
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-more-questions-for-yellen , fed-watch-ip-russia , fed-watch-quick-fomc-recap
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-november-housing-starts
• Mark Thoma on about-those-cost-push-inflation-fears

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on deficits-mediamacro-and-popular-opinion, why-these-updated-fiscal-rules-are-a-backward-step
• Kruggers on putin-on-the-fritz , the-ruble-and-the-textbooks, notes-on-russian-debt
• Menzie Chinn on russia-seems-like-old-times
• Mark Thoma on a-big-safety-net-and-strong-job-market-can-co-exist-just-ask-scandinavia
• Francesco Saraceno on mr-sinn-on-emu-core-countries-inflation Thanks Mark
• Barry Eichengreen on ecb-quantitative-easing  Thanks Brad
• David Jolly on switzerland-central-bank-to-adopt-negative-interest-rate  Thanks Brad

Asia

• Miles Kimball on righting-rogoff-on-japans-monetary-policy
• Noah Smith on yes-japan-lost-a-decade-so-did-us

Wonk

• Nick Rowe on currency-is-alpha-bonds-are-beta,  who-would-ever-lend-to-an-ftpler, ftpl-a-federal-or-provincial-issue , alpha-beta-and-gold , temporary-vs-permanent-elasticities , helicopter-money-is-normal-or-else-were-doomed , monetary-policy-is-always-and-everywhere-about-expectations
• Roger Farmer on real-business-cycle-theory-and-high-school-olympics  Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on the-agrarian-revolt, should-theories-be-testable
• Kruggers on petrothoughts , the-limits-of-purely-monetary-policies Edward Lambert too on monetary-reflections-more-to-come-in-2015 , switzerland-and-the-inflation-hawks, the-simple-analytics-of-monetary-impotence-wonkish, more-macro-modeling-meta
• James Hamilton on oil-prices-as-an-indicator-of-global-economic-conditions
• Calculated Risk on a-comment-on-oil-prices 
• Alex Harrowell on three-economic-history-papers-you-should-totally-read  Thanks Mark
• Jim Rose on is-welfare-dependence-optimal-for-whom-part-7-the-role-of-tagging-in-welfare-benefits-system
• Mark Thoma on higher-capital-requirements-didnt-slow-the-economy ,whats-the-matter-with-economics-an-exchange , maybe-theres-no-such-thing-as-a-business-cycle
• Nick Gruen on tips-and-tricks-or-tips-and-tricks-of-the-iceberg-going-meta-on-behavioural-economics
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-transparency-and-the-global-transmission-of-financial-shocks, guest-contribution-why-are-so-many-commodity-prices-down-in-the-us-yet-up-in-europe
• Daniel Little on george-and-bennett-on-case-study-methodology thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on convergence
• Simon Wren-Lewis on robert-peston-mr-market-and-me , money-impotence-in-context
• Chris Dillow on deficits-interest-rates , the-fiscal-monetary-mix
• Tony Yates on pestons-mr-markets-krugman-and-wren-lewis-dr-pangloss
• Robert Waldeman on peso-problems-ruble-problems-euro-problems-and-all-bhat
• John Quiggin on mmt-and-russia
• Lord Keynes on nominal-wage-rigidity-in-us-and-uk-1880-1913
• David Glasner on d-h-robertson-on-why-the-gold-standard-after-world-war-i-was-really-a-dollar-standard
• Brad De Long on hate-blurred-lines-monetary-policy-fiscal-policy , this-its-time-different-persistent-concerns-financial-macroeconomics , karl-whelan-thoughts-on-teaching-economics-after-the-crash-medium
• Tim Taylor on snapshots-of-islamic-banking
• Tony Yates on money-inflation-and-the-zero-bound-krugman-evans-pritchard-revisited Thanks Mark

General

• Corey Robin on three-thoughts-on-bds-and-liberal-zionism
• Barkely Rosser on torture-and-tv
• Robert Waldeman on for-those-with-strong-stomachs  Thanks Mark
• Tom Englehardt and Sarah Gordon on american-torturepast-present-and-future
• Kevin Albertson on priceless-the-inefficient-but-merry-economics-of-christmas 
• Livio De Matteo on federations-and-health-care-spending
• Tim Harford on women-still-dont-win-prizes
• Noah Smith on cultural-liberalism-is-about-personal
• Eszter Hargittai on cars-in-cuba
• Mark Thoma on digitized-products-how-about-just-giving-up
• John Quiggin on the-fossil-fuel-crash-of-2014

Climate

• Robert Stavins on assessing-the-outcome-of-the-lima-climate-talks  Thanks Mark
• Mark Maslin on why-ill-talk-politics-with-climate-change-deniers-but-not-science
• Hotwhopper on bom-maintains-el-nino-alert
• John Abraham on 2014-will-be-hottest-year-on-record
• Rabett run on hot-times
• Idiot Tracker on a-simple-plan
• Skeptical Science on what-happens-if-we-overshoot-two-degree-target
• Real Climate on clarity-on-antarctic-sea-ice
• Science of Doom on natural-variability-and-chaos-five-why-should-observations-match-model
• John Quiggin on from-montreal-to-lima 

Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)

• dont-dont-dont-dont-brothers-mind-unblind
• like-clever-way-tell-story-straightforward-series-graphs-reader-figure-click-makes-experience-feel-like
• latest-episode-continuing-effort-use-non-sports-analogies
• like-clever-way-tell-story-straightforward-series-graphs-reader-figure-click-makes-experience-feel-like
• latest-episode-continuing-effort-use-non-sports-analogies
• now-company-appears-screwed-badly-theyve-done-pretty-much-exactly-way-expect-company-screw-doesnt-drill-data
• damn-off-factor-2
• expectation-propagation-way-life
• wegman-frey-hauser-weick-fischer-dr-anil-potti-stapel-comes-clean
• key-part-statistical-thinking-use-additive-rather-boolean-models
• defense-escalation
• use-sampling-weights-bayesian-hierarchical-models-small-area-estimation
• sokal-science-merely-bag-clever-tricks-rather-natural-sciences-nothing-less-one-particular-application-albeit-unusually-successful-one
• Kaiser Fung on how-students-can-improve-their-final-grade-without-studying-even-more ,  another-example-of-misleading-time-based-correlation

Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• the-rotterdam-model
• end-of-semester-econometrics-examination
• Frances Diebold on causal-modeling-update 

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• institutions-and-droughts , market-fundamentalism , on-reading-polanyi-sigh , diminishing-returns-to-information , an-early-xmas-present , inequality-economics-and-politics-thomas-piketty-at-the-bank-of-england
• Jim Rose on the-real-effects-of-high-heels

Vox Wonk

• eurozone-bank-integration-eu-versus-non-eu-banks
• macroprudentialism-new-vox-ebook
• detection-sanctions-and-drunk-driving
• france-gold-standard
• verdict-higher-capital-requirements
• how-does-my-country-grow-lessons-ez
• sustaining-african-growth
• understanding-piketty-merit-and-rent-growing-economy
• riddle-argentina
• oil-price-volatility-and-speculation

What is Terrorism?

Was the Sydney siege terrorism? Sinclair Davidson lays into people who think it wasn't  but of course he won't define the term nor will Gerry Jackson

Well you have to define it
Here are some
here 
here
here
here
here
This is possibly the BEST

So looking at all these definitions it is very hard to say the Sydney siege was an act of terrorism.

Happy to be to wrong though

Postscript
THIS is good  THIS is even better

The Government this year in the polls

No need to write anything on how the government is travelling in the polls.

The inimitable Kevin Bonham had already done this and done it well!

Reactions to MYEFO

Here are three four thus far.

1. Greg Jericho
2. Mumble
3. Judith Sloan
4.The Kouk

One is really stupid as you might expect from someone who said on national TV that the NBN was not on the National balance sheet. ( She never reads budget papers.)

Why is it stupid you ask? Well if you cut spending as she wishes we have seen this done.
Swan's last budget ( that is the one he had full responsibility for) saw NOMINAL spending cut not just real spending. This budget was the tightest in budget history. It detracted 0.7 percentage points.
A strong memory is not one of  her assets.

Did the Economy fully recover?

No. the economy got weaker and the deficit this got bigger.
It didn't help that whilst commodity prices fell  the $A didn't!

Isn't it funny a political commentator knows more about economics than her? Well no it isn't!

MYEFO or Hockey reaps what he has sowed.

Yesterday when the siege was occurring in Sydney Joe Hockey released MYEFO.

It is pretty well I expected particularly since it had been leaked!

I am not going to argue with Ross Gittins or Peter Martin and again.

Quite clearly  Hockey thought when he got into office the economy would be starting to grow more strongly and hey presto no deficit.
As it is he is now repeating Wayne Swan's line of having a revenue shortfall which he regularly criticised. He also has wages growing much less than thought. Impossible if the labour was re-regulated by the ALP!
He now looks even more foolish.

I can't help commenting on THIS.

No comment from Davidson that Swan actually cut spending as he earnestly wants and produced the tightest budget we have ever seen. Well that is understandable as he called that budget expansionary.
Only problem is it contributed to a weaker economy.
Davidson never learns from history which is why he is wrong most of the time!

Thank you Mark the Graph

I said some time ago I could not get to see the Excellent Mark the Graph blog.

I can now Yippee.

This means I can also access the also excellent Mark the Ballot blog as well.

I can leave those blue pills now!!

The 'RIGHT' have no shame at all

H L Colebatch  wrote a book about how the unions 'hampered' the war effort in WW2.

This is a pretty good summary of it all.

It seems to me Mr Colebatch's claim that unionists would not 'touch the HMS Speaker and thus around 600 Australian POWs were cooped up in the ship for 36 hours says it all for the book..

Mike Carlton excoriates Colebatch on this claim.

Can you believe Colebatch wrote this on the 'memory' of ONE POW.
What normal people would do historians, journalists etc would be check this out with other POWs and newspapers.
Carlton has actually done this and guess what. It NEVER occurred.

Nevertheless this piece of garbage is being publicised by the usual suspects.Here is an example.
Katesy has a good excuse thought. He is a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic as we have seen in the past.

What is it with the truth and the 'right'. Why is it they simply need to lie all the time?

Some have already gone the way of Goebbels and other are certainly on the way. In the end Goebbels could tell the difference between his lies and reality!

ACDC

quite easily the best song ACDC ever did was It a long way to the shop if you want a chiko roll.

enjoy

I had no idea Molly Meldrum organised all this.

Greatest Aussie rock song of all time!!

Around the Traps 12/12/14

It is time for Around the Traps again.
Sunday is free so will update then,

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on why-reserve-bank-board-is-poised-to-cut , duty-calls-john-fraser-back-to-head-treasury , want-lower-interest-rates-attack-negative-gearing , the-gp-copayment-trick-that-purports-to-save-35-billion, youll-pay-much-more-for-doctor-three-card-trick-that-purports-to-save-$3.5b
• Jim Rose on is-welfare-dependents-optimal-for-the-whom-part-4-in-work-tax-credits-and-labour-supply
• Greg Jericho on collapsing-energy-prices-show-the-uncertainty-of-future-riches-from-lng
• Kevin Bonham on fisher-state-by-elections-and-federal-drag , poll-roundup-one-year-behind
• Nick Gruen on the-interregnum-at-the-australian-public-service-commission
• Andrew Elder on with-muffled-whimper
• Jim Gillespie on back-to-the-future-with-coalition-attacks-on-medicare-bulk-billing
• Stephen Duckett and Peter Breadon on gp-co-payment-2-0-a-triple-whammy-for-patients
• Jeff Richardson on six-things-you-should-know-about-the-co-payment-scheme
• Mumble on what_tony_should_do , guards_now_singing_different_tune
• The Kouk on the-labour-market-weakness-continues
• The Piping Shrike on positioning
• Ben Eltham on wounded-government-doubles-down-its-war-doctors
• Mark Banisch on The new politics and the Victorian election
• Peter Coates on Submarine choices

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on decline-in-labor-force-participation-rate
• Robert Waldeman on overshoot-2-inflation
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-fed-updates-ahead-of-fomc-meeting, fed-watch-challenging-the-fed, fed-watch-data-supportive-of-fed-plans
• Kruggers on profiles-in-coreage , jean-claude-yellen
• Mark Thoma on what-is-congress-trying-to-secretly-deregulate-in-dodd-frank
• Beverly Mann on cynthia-lummiss-stunningly-glib-fraud
• Lord Keynes on us-monetary-policy-and-recession-of-1920-21
• Norm Ornstein on obamas-challenge-building-a-bridge-over-americas-racial-divide
• Menzie Chinn on symmetric-application-of-dynamic-scoring
• Carola Binder on mixed-signals-and-monetary-policy Thanks Brad
• Zac Beauchamp on senate-torture-accountability  Thanks Brad

Europe

• Branco Milanovic on coase-theorem-and-methodological Thanks Mark
• Philip Lane on piie-briefing-rebuilding-europes-common-future-combining-growth-and-reform-in-the-euro-area , do-first-time-buyers-default-less-implications-for-macro-prudential-policy
• Lord Keynes on Giffen on the deflation of 1873-96 , sauls-myth-of-great-depression-1873-96, british-money-wages-in-1873-96
• Chris Dillow on milibands-illusion-of-control , political-illiteracy

Asia

• Kruggers on shinzo-and-the-invisibles
• Noah Smith on five-reasons-japan-could-never-have-won-WW2
• Brad De Long on can-build-model-japanese-bond-vigilante-attack-contractionary

Wonk

• Growth Economics on the-limited-effect-of-reforms-on-growth  Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on new-estimates-of-the-effects-of-the-minimum-wage
• Simon Wren Lewis on the-imaginary-world-of-small-state-people , small-states-economics-and-food-banks , bond-market-fairy-tales-part-1 , bond-market-fairy-tales-part-2
• Nick Rowe on my-failed-attempt-to-model-longevity-retirement-and-secular-stagnation , principal-agent-problems-and-level-path-targeting, the-degeneracy-of-ftpl , currency-is-alpha-bonds-are-beta
• Chris Dillow on against-competition , inequality-productivity , for-worker-control
• Peter Dorman on economics-and-ideology-terribly-muddled
• Jim Rose on trends-in-income-inequality-and-its-impact-on-economic-growth-oecd-working-paper-2014 also Mark Thoma on is-inequality-good-or-bad-for-growth , involuntary-unemployment-and-the-great-vacation-theories-of-the-great-depression-and-eurosclerosis, is-welfare-dependence-optimal-for-whom-part-5-higher-abatement-rates-and-labour-supply , is-welfare-dependence-optimal-for-whom-part-6-mandatory-work-requirements-and-labour-supply
• John Quiggin on the-socialisation-of-economists 
• David Glasner on john-cochrane-meet-richard-lipsey-and-kenneth-carlaw , traffic-jams-and-multipliers
• Bill Mitchell on Trickle down economics. The evidence is damning
• Edward Lambert on thoughts-on-investment-is-lm-effective-demand
• Noah Smith on sometimes-markets-are-stupid
• Roger Farmer on john-paul-and-says-law  Thanks Mark
• David Beckworth on inflation-targetings-big-wrinkle  Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on is-our-economic-commentators-learning should be Are not Is Kruggers

General

• Noah Smith on economists-arent-that-ideologicall, five-economists-who-deserve-nobels , krugman-cochrane-feud-is-getting-out-of-hand , ross-douthat-ponders-liberal-marriage
• Tim Harford on the-christmas-card-network
• Laurence Alison on psychologists-who-helped-cia-interrogate-terror-suspects-lost-sight-of-moral-principles 
• Jim Rose on some-economics-of-the-marriage-bars-and-mandatory-retirement-ages , recessions-as-reorganisations
• John Quiggin on the-google-tax
• Lorenzo on domain-states-tax-states-and-fiscal-states
• Chris Bertram on detention-torture-and-standards-of-legitimacy
• Conor Friedesdorf on the-graywashing-of-cia-torture
• Calculated Risk on would-you-loan-money-to-this-guy
• Paul Fritjers on what-was-unexpected-about-syria-and-egypt
• John Quiggin on greenpeace-and-vandalism

Climate

• Eric Steig on making-sense-of-antarctic-sea-ice-changes
• David Hone on what-did-the-ipcc-actually-say
• Hotwhopper on el-nino-is-here , dont-fall-for-judith-currys-poor-attempts-to- spin-WMO
• Real Climate on the-most-popular-deceptive-climate-graph
• Martin Nicholson on nuclear-power-to-do-the-heavy-lifting-in-reducing-chinas-greenhouse-gas-emissions
• Tamino on is-earths-temperature-about-to-soar
• Sceptical science on global-warming-continues-despite-continuous-denial
• Greg Laden on mat-ridley-anti-science-writer-climate-science-denialist  Thanks Steve from Brisbane

Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)

• subtleties-measurement-error-models-evaluation-wacky-claims
• steven-pinker-writing-agree-disagree
• buggy-whip-update
• bayesian-cognitive-modeling-models-ported-stan
• dont-believe-everything-read-scientific-papers
• inclination-deny-variation
• fallacy-placing-confidence-confidence-intervals
• next-generation-political-campaign-platform
• saying-things-out-of-place
• Kaiser Fung on how-to-face-the-mid-life-crisis-in-ab-testing

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• mastering-metrics
• marc-bellemare-on-social-media
• eviews-9-beta-version
• the-error-term-in-history-of-time-series-econometrics
• if-you-look-back-at-various-posts-on-econometrics
• when-did-you-last-check-your-code

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• exuberance-animal-spirits-and-identity , next-years-reading , unknown-knowns-about-financial-markets , times-are-bad-and-getting-badder, shouting-back-at-your-books , economists-and-refractory-wild-beasts
• Steve from Brisbane on a-universe-that-runs-forwards-and-backwards

Vox wonk

• european-headwinds-ecb-policy-and-fed-normalisation
• real-cost-government-credit-support-new-estimates
• dual-labour-markets-job-training-and-cognitive-skills
• global-banking-structural-change-vs-fragmentation
• management-quality-and-school-performance-new-evidence
• towards-trade-policy-analysis-20
• settling-wto-disputes-without-solving-problem-abusing-compensation
• services-rise-latin-america
• article/growth-slowdowns-middle-income-trap-vs-regression-mean
• is-our-economic-commentators-learning
• obesity-global-economic-issue

Test Cricket

Tony and the boys discuss the first test here.

The Indian bowling coach must be tearing his hair out.

The Goverrnment's 'new' change to medicare

The Government made 'changes' to Medicare.
Instead of making Doctors charge $5 each time you have to see them they will do it by the back door. They will reduce payments to Doctors by $5 thus essentially making doctors charge patients by the same $5.

There are a few problems here.

1) what is the use of introducing a price to these services if it is NOT to reduce the 'debt and deficit disaster'?
2) The rise in medicare costs have come from Hospitals not doctors at all.
3) people usually only go to the doctor when they are sick. Queues which costs people time has an effect on consumers!
4) The government has said visits to the GP has to be 10 minutes. What happens if you have to go to a GP to get a referral. At my age I see a skin specialist every 6 months. How is getting a referral going to last 10 minutes?
5) when GPs are unable to bulk bill and thus most patients have to pay $5 whom does the government think the GPs are going to say is responsible?
6) Everybody will be watching the Senate to see if they reject this. What happens if they do?

All in all not a lot of thinking has gone into this.

Peter Martin explains the logic. and more
Jim Gillespie tells us it is deja vu all over again.

Here is the Grattan Institute and Jeff Richardson

Abbott's excuses are specious

Steve from Brisbane  writes critically ( as usual) about Tony Abbott.

When asked why he broke his promises Abbott says circumstances changed.The budget was worse than he thought.

Unfortunately He either does not know about the Charter of Budget Honesty or he is clearly lying about it. This is ironic as he was part of the government that introduced this legislation.

The Charter of Budget Honesty has in it the release of PEFO. This is a statement by the Departments of Treasury and finance about how the budget is and where it is going.

We can see how the new government changed assumptions and also some spending and taxing decisions in the MYEFO.

As one can see the Government forced changes on the Departments as is their right. They also contributed to the deficit getting larger and then blamed the previous government.

Abbott is merely continuing to lie about lying which has made them quite unpopular and continues to do so. It appears the punters have a reasonable grasp on what the books were like and know Abbott is incorrect in what he says.

Again it is highly ironic that the more Abbott repeats this mantra the more he is distrusted.

What the punters have not discerned as yet is that budget blow-outs can occur simply because of changed economic assumptions not because of deliberate Government action. Hence they are not accepting The Government's explanation of why the Budget is blowing out and why it is not important is simply not resonating. What has the electorate in total confusion is the difference in what the government is now saying about the Budget they are in government and what they were saying in Opposition.

Again this is highly ironic.

Has there been a pause in world temperatures?

There has been quite a lot of talk about a pause or hiatus in world temperatures.

Well Tamino and Real Climate beg to differ.

They have pretty good arguments.
If you think that temperatures are cooling you are either innumerate or an imbecile!

Tamino again

Around the Traps 5/12/14

It is time for Around the Traps. Cricket on Saturday and Sunday so perhaps rain will help me update.
Tamino is back bigtime showing how there hasn't been a pause in world temperatures and even better Ricardian Ambivalence is calling for the RBA to cut rates.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on deficit-fetishism also The Kouk on senate-saving-the-economy
• John again on broken-promises-and-budget-anger-this-chaotic-mess-wont-be-fixed-with-the-usual-political-script 
• Mumble on my_story_bigger_than_yours , careful_what_you_wish_for_bill
• The Kouk on low-oil-prices-hurt-more-than-they-help , the-rba-holds-on-to-an-on-hold-position , the-weakness-of-the-australian-economy , tobacco-consumption-hits-a-fresh-all-time-low
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-deeply-unpopular-by-December
• Andrew Elder on does-victoria-matter
• David Rowe on Death of a sportsman 
• Greg Jericho on budget-deficit-to-be-blamed-on-terms-of-trade, australias-dreadful-gdp-figures-six-things-you-need-to-know
• Bill Mitchell on the inexact science of calibrating fiscal policy
• Ross Gittins on Treasury's boss parting advice , Why hockey's budget flopped so badly
• Ricardo Ambivalence on rba-sets-up-for-a-cut

Northern America

• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-yes-i-am-optimistic , fed-watch-sometimes-i-wonder , fed-watch-ahead-of-the-november-employment-report , fed-watch-economy-clearly-gaining-momentum
• Barkley Rosser on is-1921-role-model-for-modern-macroeconomic-policy
• Kruggers on warren-harding-and-the-emperor-diocletian , a-note-on-oil-prices-and-the-economy, comparing-postmodern-recoveries
• Nick Rowe on stabilising-deflation-under-the-gold-standard
• Robert Waldeman on i-blame-obamacare
• Brad De Long on douglas-holtz-eakin-edition-not-the-honest-broker-for-the-week
• Paul N Van der Water on six-ways-health-reform-helps-the-middle-class  Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on a-farewell-to-arms
• Jon Chait on 4-new-studies-obamacare-working-incredibly-well
• David Glasner on the-nearly-forgotten-dearly-beloved-1920-21-depression-yet-again-or-never-reason-from-a-quantity-change

Europe

• Tony Yates on dear-ed-and-george  Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on being-bad-europeans, flimflam-does-london
• Simon Wren-Lewis on destroying-state-is-no-accident , the-obr-confirm-dangers-of-osbornes-gamble , government-debt-financial-markets-and-dead=parrots
• Chris Dillow on shrink-the-state-cock-up-or-conspiracy , gordon-brown-an-assessment , the-a-b-c-of-fiscal-policy, implausible-cuts
• Robert Waldeman on uk-macroeconomic-policy-mistakes-of-the-past
• Kenneth Thomas on the-german-euro-is-overvalued
• Brad De Long on thinking-austerity-britain-daily-focus
• Antonio Fatas on the-logic-behind-german-euro-gamble  Thanks Mark
• Craig Berry and Christopher Kirkland on how-george-osborne-fell-into-the-deficit-gap
• Seamus Coffey on ec-assessments-of-budgets
• Tim Taylor on how-did-germany-limit-unemployment-in-the-recession  Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on and-in-russia

Asia
nuttin

Wonk

• Carola Binder on reading-keynes-at-zero-lower-bound
• Tim Harford on why-a-house-price-bubble-means-trouble
• Nick Rowe on the-desired-stock-of-savings
• Brad De Long on why-does-fiscal-stimulus-work-hoisted-from-robert-waldmanns-archives-from-a-year-ago
• Simon Wren-Lewis on secular-stagnation-and-computers
• Charles Carlstron and Timothy Stehulak on Implied Taylor rules among forecasters  Thanks Mark
• Lord Keynes on henry-thornton-on-downwards-nominal-wage-rigidty, marshall-on-wage-stickiness-and-debt-deflation
• David Glasner on hayek-free-banking-and-tax-payments
• Jim Rose on is-welfare-dependants-optimal-for-whom-part-one-the-labour-leisure-trade-off-and-the-rewards-for-working 
• Menzie Chinn on keynesian-cassandras-the-sequester-re-assessed
• David Beckworth on are-we-mismeasuring-productivity-growth , what-do-john-cochrane-paul-krugman-and-scott-summer
• Noah Smith on the-canny-case-for-canning-keynes and then
• Robert Waldeman on on-smith-on-cowan

General

• Heinrich Mathee on the ANC a hybrid regime
• Tim Harford on learn-from-the-losers
• Paul Frijters on does-increasing-the-legal-age-for-buying-alcohol-reduce-traffic-accidents
• Nick Gruen on speaking-of-bullshit
• Noah Smith on sociology-vs-the-empire
• Mark Thoma on maths-and-morals-economics-and-greed 

Climate

• Steve from Brisbane on the-antarctic-ice-that-matters ,( also Hotwhopper on shifting-into-high-gear-amundsen-sea) i-didnt-want-to-know-this
• Joe Romm on hottest-year-on-record
• Ben Heard on nuclear-power-isnt-economically-feasible-in-australia-but
• Tamino on culpable , a-pause-or-not-a-pause-that-is-the-question
• Real Climate on  recent-global-warming-trends-significant-or-paused-or-what ,a-clearer-picture-how-climate-change-affects-el-nino
• Rabette run on ozone-photochemistry-part-i , ozone-photochemistry-part-2, in-beginning-it-was-deja-vue-all-over
• Science of doom on natural-variability-and-chaos-four-the-thirty-year-myth
• hotwhopper on warmer-oceans-matter , uah-on-track-for-3rd-hottest-year
• Andrew King on sound-familiar-spring-2014-was-australias-hottest-on-record-again

Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)

• quick-tips-giving-research-presentations
• students-dont-know-whats-best-learning
• read-quantitative-social-science-implication-write
• observational-studies-outlawed-outlaws-will-observational-studies
• designing-study-see-10x-programmer-real-thing
• persistence-schools-failing-story-line
• plaig-copying-lack-attribution
• Daniel Little on geddes-on-methods Thanks Mark

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• heresyour-reading-list
• statistical-controls-are-great-except_1
• more on predictions from log linear regressions
• advice-on-publishing

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• what-do-economists-know , adam-smith-for-our-times

Vox Wonk

• good-governance-and-wellbeing
• time-scrap-stability-and-growth-pact
• tax-evasion-and-reforms-greece
• why-euro-inflation-so-low
• challenges-ahead-managing-spillovers
• addressing-long-term-unemployment-aftermath-great-recession
• exporting-and-firm-performance-evidence-egyptian-rug-manufacturers
• cultural-diversity-and-entrepreneurship-new-evidence