Bob Dylan again

Two weeks ago I went to the local pub and had a parmy with my youngest son and heard mozambique for the first time since the glory days of doublejay rock.

yet again I prefer the studio version

Around the Traps 20/2/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Antony Green on will-the-coalition-face-messy-by-election-in-sussan-leys-seat-of-farrer , farrer-a-liberal-or-national-seat
• John Hawkins on want-to-know-whats-really-going-on-in-australian-politics-a-four-way-tussle-in-farrer-may-tell-us
• Hal Pawson on 55-000-extra-social-housing-homes-are-being-built-but-a-new-study-shows-that-boom-still-falls-short
• Michelle Grattan on who-is-angus-taylor-and-could-he-cut-it-as-opposition-leader , angus-taylor-appoints-tim-wilson-as-part-of-a-new-look-liberal-economic-team
• Se Youn Park on australia-has-ruled-out-repatriation-for-isis-families-this-isnt-a-safe-or-coherent-plan
• Greg Jericho on real-wages-fall-australia-workers-economy
• Christopher Hoy on real-wages-have-gone-backwards-even-earning-100-000-isnt-what-it-used-to-be
• Terence Cheng on private-health-insurance-premiums-will-rise-4-41-this-year-but-is-it-justified
• Jennifer Parker on chinese-warships-australians-never-got-debate

OZ Climate

• no-concrete-no-b-doubles-major-solar-and-battery-project-promises-ultra-light-touch 
  
• if-were-going-to-hold-an-inquiry-into-the-life-cycle-of-solar-why-not-coal-and-gas 
  
• no-concrete-no-b-doubles-major-solar-and-battery-projhttps://reneweconomy.com.au/no-concrete-no-b-doubles-major-solar-and-battery-project-promises-ultra-light-touch/ect-promises-ultra-light-touch
  
• we-dont-doubt-ourselves-fortescues-race-to-real-zero-and-the-radical-rethink-behind-it
  
• solar-and-wind-titans-reboot-push-for-huge-inland-renewables-zone-as-least-regret-pathway-to-coal-free-nsw
  
• records-tumble-as-nine-wind-and-solar-projects-1-gw-of-batteries-join-grid-in-just-three-months
  
• can-inverter-based-technologies-do-the-system-security-job-of-big-spinning-machines
  
• if-green-iron-is-the-future-for-whyalla-steelworks-locking-in-costly-and-dirty-gas-is-a-dead-end
  
• could-the-aemc-be-kinda-right-about-fixed-network-costs-late-submission-lobs-curve-ball-into-debate
• Rod Sims and Rebecca Burdon on don-t-be-gaslit-on-climate-there-s-no-going-back-on-this-energy-transition
• Milton Speer and Lance Leslie on dramatic-changes-in-upper-atmosphere-are-responsible-for-recent-droughts-and-bushfires-new-research

Northern America

• institutional economics on productivity-and-inflation-then-and-now
• persuasion on the-democrats-are-still-lost Thanks Nick
• Gilad Edelman on epstein-files-guilt-association Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on who-is-paying-the-trump-tariffs , turning-our-back-on-clean-energy , how-the-kakistocracy-became-a-quackistocracy ,billionaires-gone-wild , ieepa-ieepa-ieepa
• Christian Paz on epstein-trump-bondi-rogan-conspiracy-files-release-young-men 
• Brad De Long on from-plato-to-nato-to-maga
• Gibbs Knotts and Christopher Cooper on how-jesse-jackson-was-shaped-by-southern-segregation-and-went-on-to-reshape-american-political-life
• James Trapani on misreading-monroe-doctrine-creating-true-gulf-americas
• Menzie Chinn on output-gaps-again , guest-contribution-usury-laws-and-trumps-proposed-cap-on-credit-card-interest-rates
• Eric Levitz on trump-economy-jobs-inflation-gas-prices-polls
• David Frum on mona-charen-conservatism
• home and Away on bombs-bad-bunny-and-the-biathlon
• Alex Tabbarok on the-cassidy-report-on-the-fda
• Steve Benen on white-house-eyes-punishments-for-economists-who-told-the-truth-about-tariffs-consumers
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-new-york-gerrymandering-williams-malliotakis , supreme-court-trump-tariffs-learning-resources
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-doj-confession-new-jersey-court-deportations-ice , trump-bully-supreme-court-tariffs-roberts-barrett-gorsuch
• Jordana Salaama on the-chaos-of-an-ice-detention
• Ruxandra Teslo on the-30-year-success-story-the-us Thanks Tyler
• Ted Dehaven on trumps-slush-fund-venezuela-oil-gaza-board-of-peace-tariffs
• James Hamilton on gdp-continues-to-grow

Europe

• Lisa Martin on denmark-plays-royal-flush-trump-greenland-saga
• Jennifer Mathers on ukraine-if-elections-are-held-this-spring-who-might-be-the-next-president
• David Kirichenko on ukraine-s-population-hardest-stretch-war
• Stephen Kinsella on the-best-way-to-understand-the-irish-economy Thanks Tyler
• Henry Storey on european-industry-faces-existential-china-challenge
• Francesca Jackson on why-has-andrew-mountbatten-windsor-been-arrested-and-what-legal-protections-do-the-royal-family-have
• Jo Coghlin et al on could-andrew-mountbatten-windsors-arrest-bring-down-the-british-monarchy
• Nikola Mikovic on peace-ukraine-still-out-reach

Asia

• Shahad Uddin on bangladesh-nationalist-party-secures-victory-in-first-election-since-sheikh-hasinas-ousting
• Christian Emery on trump-insists-iran-talks-must-continue-but-military-action-is-not-off-the-table
• Adam Hawkins on what-thailands-election-means-for-the-future-of-the-country-and-its-beleaguered-pro-democracy-forces
• Amin Saikal on israel-is-accelerating-its-creeping-annexation-of-the-west-bank-can-donald-trump-stop-it
• Intifar Chowdhury on bangladesh-charts-new-multipolar-course
• Sanchari Ghosh on india-s-fleet-review-was-much-diplomacy-pageantry

Wonk

• the argument on the-postliberal-war-on-economics Thanks Nick
• the preamble on what-if-representative-democracy-isn't-the-only-way Thanks Nick
• jacobin on mann-doctor-faustus-fascism-far-right Thanks Nick
• George Orwell on not-counting-niggers Thanks Nick
• noahpinion on you-are-no-longer-the-smartest-type-of-thing-on-earth , updated-thoughts-on-ai-risk
• Chris Bertram on runcimans-rawls
• Hamid Ali et al on the-peer-review-system-is-breaking-down-heres-how-we-can-fix-it
• Tyler Cowen on taxing-beta-exempting-alpha-a-benchmark-based-inheritance-regime
• Kevin Foster on a-history-of-assassination-reveals-how-targeted-killings-became-an-extension-of-state-power
• Alex Tabbarok on minimum-wages-for-gig-work-cant-work
• Shameek Godara on can-quad-regain-momentum-after-india-us-reset
• the conversable economist on some-evidence-on-ai-productivity-and-labor-markets
• Aiden Warren on new-start-expired-now-what-global-nuclear-stability
• Monique Taylor on london-rules-slow-horses-modern-security-state
• slow boring on ai-progress-is-giving-me-writers-block thanks Brad
• Chris Dillow on economic-growth-as-social-change
• Maria O'Sullivan on with-more-restrictive-laws-across-the-country-how-can-we-protect-the-right-to-protest

General

• Jenny Graves on men-lose-their-y-chromosome-as-they-age-scientists-thought-it-didnt-matter-but-now-were-learning-more
• Caroline Gurvich et al on what-causes-depression-what-we-know-dont-know-and-suspect

Climate

• real climate on epas-final-ruling-on-co2
• Robyn Eckersly on trump-has-scrapped-the-long-standing-legal-basis-for-tackling-climate-emissions
• Sharon Thawaney on climate-diplomacy-has-moved-beyond-days-single-grand-bargain
• Owen Atkin et al on intense-heatwaves-directly-threaten-crops-and-native-species-heres-what-we-can-do
• ocean acidification on the-silent-shift-how-ocean-acidification-and-rising-temperature-affect-marine-organisms
• noahpinion on china-is-killing-the-fish
• skeptical science on new_research
• Moyhu on january-global-surface-templs-up-004-from-december

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-stupidity-the-criminal-vandalism-the-wanton-destruction-of-information-involved-in-dichotomisation
  
• funniest-predatory-journal-pitch-ever
  
• hanging-out-an-observational-study
  
• the-atlantic-monthly-march-1947
  
• survey-statistics-gallups-presidential-approval-ratings
  
• fitting-a-model-to-estimate-the-seats-votes-curve-back-in-the-bad-old-days-before-we-had-stan
  
• the-80-power-lie
  
• what-do-socrates-herb-simon-and-andrew-gelman-have-in-common-a-love-of-the-oral-tradition
• from junk science to junk medical treatments
•  staschat on cancer-hates-mornings-too , out-of-warranty
• Kaiser Fung on data-hunting-on-the-radar-chart , as-usual-no-ones-doping

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Christos Tsiolkas on melania Thanks Nick
• Jodi McAlister on is-wuthering-heights-actually-romantic-heathcliff-would-say-no

Vox Wonk

• silver-lining-european-energy-crisis-energy-efficiency-productivity-and-potential
  
• school-supervised-edtech-support-produces-massive-learning-gains-khan-academy-field
  
• how-ai-affecting-productivity-and-jobs-europe
  
• economics-kalshi-prediction-market
  
• eu-capital-markets-reform-should-focus-innovation-investment
  
• rethinking-existing-tax-schemes-political-giving-and-charitable-donations
  

What is Trump hiding?

 I am stumped at Trump's role in curtailing the Epstein files.

I have previously said I cannot see any evidence he broke the law here and I do not see Trump having sex with minors.

Releasing the epstein files alah the legislation is a no-brainer. Of course there will be embarrassments but people will forget them quickly. Getting it over and done with makes political sense however trump is doing the exact opposite. This has two main problems for trump.

1. It keeps Epstein in the headlines
2. People now think Trump and epstein are interwoven and has done 'wrong' things.

Trump is not very intelligent indeed quite the opposite. He is easily the most low IQ President we have seen in out lifetime. His actions on this merely proves this.

Wow Epstein in 2017 said Trump had too much orange and was suffering from dementia however this has vanished without a trace!!

Taylor's new lineup

 Angus Taylor announced his new shadow lineup. See Michelle Grattan.

I have reservations. In no particular order here they are.

• Taylor was a very poor minister and just as bas shadow treasurer. Why on earth does anyone think he can succeed as Opposition Leader?
• He appointed Tim Wilson as shadow treasurer. The only person who thinks wilson is impressive is wilson.
• He wants to cut immigration. This will impact both skilled labour and universities. There is no evidence this has penetrated the Opposition as yet. One Nation can be  moorons. the LNP cannot!
• Changing the leader does not solve the major problems for the opposition.
• The structural deficit is about $20b. In what time do they think they can eliminate this?
• They have few seats in the cities primarily because they are not seen as fair dinkum on climate change.  One nation and the nationals following them will ensure this continues.

The present government is not impressive.They are very timid thus we need an opposition that is ready for government. We do not have it now and it seems unlikely for a while.

Farrer could be interesting

 John Hawkins says Farrer could tell us where australian politics is heading in the near future.

Antony Green tells us all about the lecorate HERE and HERE.

We shall get a four way fight. The Liberals who currently hold it  after they won it when Tim fischer retired. The Nationals who want it back although it was a Liberal seat before that.. One Nation who believe they are on a roll and an Independent ( no I do not believe two independents).

Okay let us make a guess. Green preferences will go mostly to the ALP unless they think they can crown the Independent.  One Nation will gain at the expense of both the Liberals and also the National party but mainly the latter.

ALP  preferences will go to the independent. This will put her into second place. The National preferences wil ggo mainly to One nation.

The Liberal vote will be down because of the Liberals knifing Ley and antipathy towards Taylor. some votes will go to one nation but also towards the independent.

Thus the contest on final preferences will again be between the Liberal candidate and the Independent. Thus I would not be surprised if the Independent wins however I say that with no confidence.

The West Wing

 I am using youtube quite a bit these days. The rest is history, the rest is politics, legal and political issues in the USA , the invasio0n of ukraine as well as music makes it essential viewing.

One thing that came up out of nowhere was the west wing.

It was one of my favourite series.

Fabulous cast, sensational writing, characters that are good and bad. I could go on but you get the point.

If you have not watched the serries then do so. It is clearly the BEST US series I have ever watched.

Here is a sample

Bob Dylan

 Knocking on Heaven's door come from one of my top 10 Westerns, Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid, which Bob wrote the soundtrack.

but I prefer the studio version

Around the Traps 13/2/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Adriahn Beaumont on why-preferential-voting-is-superior-to-first-past-the-post
• Jago Dodson and Liam Davies on how-cutting-the-capital-gains-tax-discount-could-help-rebalance-the-housing-market
• Kieran Hardy on is-australias-terrorism-definition-still-fit-for-purpose
• Bronwyn Cumbo on can-australia-build-one-of-the-worlds-largest-data-centres
• Andrea Carson and Finley Watson on yes-one-nations-poll-numbers-are-climbing-but-major-party-status-let-alone-government-is-still-a-long-way-off
• Simon Bronitt on was-the-violent-sydney-protest-avoidable-and-what-can-police-and-demonstrators-learn
• Luke Hartigan on what-exactly-is-inflation-and-are-interest-rates-the-only-option-for-dealing-with-it
• Antony Green on the-success-of-local-independents-kooyong
• Greg Jericho on point-of-no-return-hothouse-earth-global-heating-climate-tipping-points
• Mick Ryan on australia-s-new-national-defence-strategy-must-embrace-adaptation-warfare-evolves
• Tony Barry on sussan-ley-is-todays-scapegoat-but-she-was-never-the-liberals-core-problem
• Peter Breadon and Molly Chapman on bulk-billing-rates-are-up-but-theres-more-to-delivering-the-best-possible-care

OZ Climate

• first-solar-battery-hybrid-sends-power-into-evening-peak-heralding-radical-changes-for-australias-main-grid
  
• home-battery-numbers-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-rebate-launch-as-installers-take-a-beat
  
• pumped-hydro-is-vital-to-the-future-grid-so-why-does-gas-exploration-get-all-the-tax-benefits
  
• dont-reinvent-the-wheel-big-investors-fear-nem-reform-could-backfire-on-wind-industry
  
• plan-to-increase-fixed-network-costs-will-take-from-the-poor-give-to-the-rich-and-slash-returns-on-pv-and-batteries
  
• australias-key-emissions-reduction-policy-is-doing-a-great-job-of-safeguarding-gas-producers
  
• australias-biggest-coal-generator-learns-how-to-make-more-money-out-of-its-customers-and-big-battery-fleet
  
• moves-afoot-to-bring-balcony-solar-to-australia-and-new-wave-of-products-has-batteries-included
  
• origin-says-big-batteries-playing-well-with-ageing-fossils-but-wont-rule-out-new-gas-peakers
  
• australias-clean-energy-transition-has-been-powered-by-people-solar-for-renters-is-the-next-chapter
  
• the-little-battery-that-could-pave-the-way-for-ageing-coal-generators-to-be-shut-down-on-schedule
  
• Nick Whiterod et al on the-lower-murray-is-officially-on-life-support-will-we-save-it
• Adam Morton on there-will-never-be-a-better-time-to-revisit-carbon-pricing-in-australia-but-does-labor-have-the-stomach-to-make-polluters-pay

Northern America

• one first on 208-the-fifth-circuit-jumps-the-immigration-detention-shark Thanks Brad
• Jonathan Rauch on america-fascism-trump-maga-ice Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on the-debasement-trade-meets-the-warsh-steepener
• Grant Wyeth on exploiting-old-gripes-trump-s-grab-51st-state
• noahpinion on why-americas-extremes-will-both-fail
• Kruggers on federal-reserve-101-part-ii-the-global- financial-crisis -and-its-aftermath , seduced-by-the-louis-xiv-treatment , no-ai-doesnt-justify-lower-interest , the-banality-of-maga-evil , making-america-stagnate-again , the-maga-bubble-is-imploding
• Peter Wehner on evangelicals-trump-national-prayer-breakfast
• Eric Levitz on trump-midterms-2026-rigged-election-fulton-county-gabbard-bondi
• Fred Kaplan on pete-hegseth-military-harvard-donald-trump
• the conversable economist on asian-americans-two-alternate-histories , us-budget-deficits-spitting-into-the-wind
• home and away on the-end-of-shame
• Umair Irfan on epa-climate-endangerment-finding-trump-coal-fuel-economy
• Bill Haskell on costs-vs-benefits-for-clean-air
• Ricardo Hausman on america-credibility-problem-could-lead-to-rupture-if-not-addressed
• Eric Levitz on trump-doj-democrats-indictment-national-guard-ice

Europe

• Sam Power on the-british-public-has-lost-faith-in-politics-the-peter-mandelson-scandal-must-be-a-wake-up-call-for-keir-starmer
• Jeremy Horder on what-exactly-is-misconduct-in-public-office-and-could-peter-mandelson-be-convicted
• Imran Khalid on rebranding-europe-s-energy-transition-climate-policy-survival
• Joy Neumeyer on poland-halfway-to-democracy-new-politics-of-poland
• Simon Schuster on zelensky-trump-peace-deal-ukraine-russia
• renew economy on renewables-account-for-more-than-55-pct-of-spains-energy-mix-in-2025-and-in-first-month-of-2026

Asia

• Aswin Lin on why-taiwan-dome-won-t-survive-chinese-attack
• Adam Simpson on japans-rock-star-leader-now-has-the-political-backing-to-push-a-bold-agenda-will-she-deliver
• noahpinion on the-takaichi-era-begins-for-real
• Gerhard Hofstaeder et al on rohingya-boats-out-mind-still-coming
• Syong-Hyon Lee on zhang-youxia-fallen-general
• Peter Chai and Willy Jou on power-surprise-how-takaichi-s-snap-election-delivered-ldp-landslide
• Mehmet Ozalp on how-irans-current-unrest-can-be-traced-back-to-the-1979-revolution

Wonk

• Noah Carl on why-are-intelligent-people-more-liberal Thanks Nick
• existential politics on the-tragedy-of-the-centre-left Thanks Nick
• cosmos institute on on-the-noble-uses-of-ai Thanks Nick
• Andy Masely on a-list-of-other-catastrophes-that-are-probably-fake Thanks Nick
• Jason Burke on 1970s-extremism Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on when-psychologists-mislead-us
• Tyler Cowen on bryan-caplan-on-immigration-backlash
• the conversable economist on what-are-folk-economic-beliefs
• Doug Muir on the-stone-pillars-of-the-sons-of-seth
• Brad De Long on crosspost-josh-marshall-thinking-clearly-about-the-global-authoritarian-movement
• Samir Ramzy on sudans-latest-peace-plan-whats-in-it-and-does-it-stand-a-chance

General

• Robert King on oh-hedy-days-of-youth Thanks Nick
• Janet Cetinkaya and Ian Kidd on why-aristotle-would-hate-valentines-day-and-his-five-steps-to-love

Climate

• real climate on koonins-continuing-calumnies , the-climate-science-reference-they-dont-want-judges-to-read
• Umair Irfan on energy-abundance-access-electricty-progress-africa-oceania-energy-poverty
• Damian Carrington on point-of-no-return-hothouse-earth-global-heating-climate-tipping-points
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• anti
  
•  hey-heres-100000-down-the-drain
• review-of-string-theory-book-from-2004
  
• a-consensus-but-its-a-consensus-of-uncertainty
  
• my-talk-this-wed-noon-at-the-columbia-statistics-department-student-seminar
  
• survey-statistics-more-on-recalled-vote
  
• sethi-on-betting-on-geopolitical-violence
  
• the-new-york-young-republican-club-but-this-time-with-no-butt-plugs-or-dildos
  
• what-a-multiverse-good-for-anyway
  
• our-sanctimonious-overlords-kenneth-starr-edition
  
• Kaiser Fung on snow-math , alternatives-to-radar-chart-1
• statschat on coffee-brain , briefly
• freakometrics on  natural disasters avoidable or unpredictable disasters

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Brad De Long on assessing-brink-lindseys-the-permanent-problem
• Tyler Cowen on oliver-kim-reviews-how-africa-works

Vox Wonk

• generative-ai-german-firms-diffusion-costs-and-expected-economic-effects
  
•  future-under-glass
• showing-alps-economic-value-davos
  
• immigration-restrictions-and-natives-intergenerational-mobility-evidence-1920s-us 
  
• ai-investment-gdp-growth-ecosystem-view
  
• mapping-contours-chinese-policy-transmission-home-and-abroad
  
• when-war-weakens-democracy
  

If Angus Taylor is the answer then you have asked the wrong question

 The Opposition is in a real pickle. The last election was one of their worst ever defeats. Given the government's lack of achievements and their uninspiring leader then the reason surely has to be with the Opposition.

One view is the Nationals has supported policies that cost votes in the cities. I suspect this is on the money.

The next is the rise of one nation and the nationals response has been to go further to the populist right.

The Liberals have a decision to make. Is the future to regain the centre from the ALP or march further to the right.

Taylor thus far has yet to offer any solutions to the Liberals future. He is far from eloquest. His ministerial career has been poor, He frequently said base load power and dispatchable power  was the same thing. It aint. Coal fired power is base load power but is not dispatchable.

Ley has not had a fair go although in politics that is par for the course.

Answers to the last election loss are all over the place. Hastie for example wants to protect industry and so build it up. Others influenced by sky after dark want to move further to the right.

Ley clearly wants to move to the centre but has a disunited party.

Replacing her with Taylor does not fill me with any confidence. In normal times you would expect the liberals to have a largish swing towards them in the next election simply because of the last result. In an ironic move the surge in one nation may obviate this.

My only advice to the liberals is to move to the centre.

It has all been very sad

 It was a disgrace that people could not march to parliament house in sydney. however once the court made the decision that should have been that. no-one came out of that looking good.

THe pro=palestinian people gain showed no political nous.

The police looked highly undisciplined and suffering from a lack of training. clearly they escaladed things. They were there to do the opposite.

However the person who came out of the whole mess the worse was Chris Minns. The legislation clearly was not needed. There had been no violence previously. It was the legislation that promoted the violence. Minns clearly and consistently conflated the bondi massacre and pro-palestine marches. As yet he has asserted this without a shred of evidence. Does he actually believe this nonsense? Is he merely succumbing to pressure from the jewish lobby?

Allied to this was the assertion made on four corners by an ex-asio agent believing the two terrorists were radicalised a lot earlier ie  well before Israel's genocidal behaviour towards palestinians.

I might end by saying there is nothing wrong with asserting globalise the intifada. The intifada can ONLY occur in one specific geographical place. It aint sydney. If anyone expresses the phrase they are merely saying publicise the intifada so palestinians get justice. to say it explicitly supports against jews is absurd and misinformation. 

Herzog should NEVER have been invited

 Albo invited the Israeli President to Australia. It showed poor judgement.

It involved two major problems.

Firstly the incident had NOTHING to do with Palestinians or Israel's genocidal actions on them. Herzog's disgraceful words saying all Palestinians are responsible for October 7 is to all extents irrelevant to what occurred at Bondi. However it will undoubtedly get tangled up with it.

Secondly it will exacerbate deadly tropes about Jews and where their loyalties lie.

Battery update

 Our latest bill is $115. 

two things of note. The battery was not put in until the quarter had started.

My wife had the air conditioner on for a few nights which not only used up the battery but also meant we used the grid.

We do know now the dishwasher, washing machine, microwave do not take up much energy.

The big things are heating the water for the showers and the stove and oven.

We bought a 16 kw battery. If we bought a 50kw one we probably would need the grid.

Around the Traps 6/2/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kevin Bonham on the-low-impact-of-independent-preferences-in-2025
• Antony Green on here-we-go-again-the-future-of-the-national-party , one-nations-poll-surge-the-first-25-seats-to-watch
• institutional economics on three-cuts-forward-four-hikes-back
• Greg Jericho on rba-interest-rates-decision-analysis-reserve-bank-australia
• Stella Huangfu on rba-raises-interest-rates-as-inflation-pressures-remain-high
• Chris Sidoti on albanese-can-still-withdraw-the-invitation-to-israels-president-he-should-do-so-for-the-sake-of-social-cohesio
• Kurt Sengel and Jordan McSweeney on can-one-nation-turn-its-polling-hype-into-seats-in-parliament-history-shows-it-will-struggle
• Meg Elkins on what-the-rba-wants-australians-to-do-next-to-fight-inflation-or-risk-more-rate-hikes
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on is-federal-government-spending-really-to-blame-for-higher-inflation-its-not-clear-cut
• Levi West on why-did-it-take-9-days-to-declare-the-perth-bombing-attempt-a-terrorist-attack
• Carolin Kautz on canal-without-paddle-lessons-panama-australia

OZ Climate

• will-australia-reach-its-renewable-targets-on-time-it-will-need-a-lot-more-wind-and-solar
  
• locals-consider-options-after-losing-court-appeal-against-solar-farm-approval
  
• battery-prices-plunge-60-pct-in-two-years-changing-face-of-grid-and-the-nature-of-contracts
  
• big-batteries-are-pushing-down-current-and-expected-prices-in-the-evening-peaks
  
• rebates-strapped-a-rocket-to-home-battery-demand-but-has-rooftop-solar-peaked
  
• a-rule-change-request-snuck-in-over-christmas-could-radically-alter-how-the-main-grid-functions
  
• nsw-awards-contracts-to-six-huge-8-hour-battery-projects-including-the-biggest-in-australia
  
• wind-and-solar-curtailment-beneath-the-headline-numbers-from-2025
• first-solar-battery-hybrid-sends-power-into-evening-peak-heralding-radical-changes-for-australias-main-grid-changes-for-australias-main-grid
  
• Tony Wood on renewables-over-50-wholesale-prices-down-is-the-energy-transition-succeeding
• Duygu Yengin et al on why-cheaper-power-alone-isnt-enough-to-end-energy-poverty-in-summer

Northern America

• institutional economics on dollar-dominance-with-chinese-characteristics
• one percent brighter on the-venetian-option Thanks Nick
• Michael Ignatieff on lament for a nation Thanks Nick
• Oliver Hartwich on donald-trump-the-kaiser-in-mar-a-lago Thanks Nick
• Brian Blank and Brandy Hadley on 3-things-to-know-about-kevin-warsh-trumps-nod-for-fed-chair
• Eric Levitz on alex-pretti-new-video-ice-ai-trump
• the conversable economist on tariffs-and-inflation-where-are-we , when-social-security-went-haywire-in-the-1970s
• thinking about on ethnic-cleansing-in-ohio Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on federal-reserve-101 , kevin-warsh-and-weathervane-economics , american-democracy-will-not-die-in-darkness , profiles-in-cowardice-tariff-edition , is-this-cryptos-fimbulwinter , american-decency-still-lives
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-republicans-court-packing-utah-georgia-arizona , trump-minneapolis-minnesota-justice-department-broken
• Alyssa Rosenberg on melania-trump-documentary-first-lady-cash-grabs
• stay at home on kevin-warsh Thanks Tyler
• noahpinion on what-a-liberal-immigration-enforcement-might-look-like
• Fred Kaplan on trump-russia-new-start-nuclear-arms-race
• Adam Serwer on masks-ice-immigration
• Fintan O'Toole on the-crime-of-witness
• Isaac Chotiner on is-ice-leading-us-into-a-constitutional-crisis
• Menzie Chinn on when-tariffs-hit-home caligula revisited
• Shirin Ali on ice-agents-nice-little-database-google-meta-surveillance
• Alex Tabarrok on trumps-pharmaceutical-plan
• Ashley Parker on washington-post-layoffs-bezos
• Jeet Heer on politics/trump-corruption-uae-bribes , tulsi-gabbard-georgia-raid-election

Europe

• programmable mutter on europe-has-more-bargaining-strength-than-it-thinks thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on how-british-queues-got-out-of-hand
• Fred Kaplan on nato-exercise-without-america-rupture-europe
• Rod Thornton and Marina Miron on trump-wants-ukraine-to-give-up-the-donbas-in-return-for-security-guarantees-it-could-be-fatal-for-kyiv
• Martin Farr on the-fall-of-peter-mandelson-and-the-many-questions-the-uk-government-must-now-answer
• Michael Holz on the-assault-on-ukraines-power-grid

Asia

• Nicholas Coppell on us-policy-post-election-myanmar
• Shameek Godara on india-eu-trade-deal-beyond-mother-all-deals
• Haroro Ingram on unseen-front-philippines-china-challenge
• Piers Pigou on china-s-security-offerings-gain-traction-africa
• Yunyun Wahyuningram on rohingya-case-could-redefine-genocide-matters-asean
• Abhijnan Rej on bangladesh-s-election-can-culture-counter-extremism
• Phillip Saunders on xi-s-military-purges-will-make-him-wary-invading-taiwan

Wonk

• Hal Brands on trump-is-making-the-world-hedge-its-bets Thanks Nick
• Catherine Dee on andrew-tate-is-the-loneliest-bastard-on-earth Thanks Nick
• Alexander Kustov on the-uncomfortable-truths-about-immigration Thanks Nick
• Angel Zhong and Jason Tian on silver-and-gold-hit-record-highs-then-crashed-before-joining-the-rush-you-need-to-know-this
• noahpinion on what-if-ai-succeeds-but-openai-fails , international-financial-anarchy, p/the-fall-of-the-nerds
• Henry Maher on why-trumps-new-pick-for-fed-chair-hit-gold-and-silver-markets-for-good-reasons
• Peter Balonen-Rosen and Noel King on trump-foreign-policy-western-hemisphere-donroe-china-russia
• Arijan Shukla on hidden-cost-central-bank-independence
• Henry Yep on war-games-thriving-strategic-turbulence
• Sandy Holloway on mark-carney-wrong-about-rules-based-order
• the conversable economist on winter-2026-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-available-online

General

• Ben McCann on funny-tender-goofy-catherine-ohara-lit-up-the-screen-every-time-she-showed-up
• Claire Collins on does-coffee-raise-your-blood-pressure-heres-how-much-its-ok-to-drink
• Emlyn Dodd on olives-have-been-essential-to-life-in-italy-for-at-least-6-000-years-far-longer-than-we-thought
• John Horner on a-new-comet-was-just-discovered-will-it-be-visible-in-broad-daylight

Climate

• Jawad Khalid on climate-change-shared-problem-needs-shared-solutions
• skeptical science on polar-vortex-warm-ocean-storm , new_research

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-pantheon-of-celebrity-billionaires
  
• from-the-mixed-up-files-of-jeffrey-e-epstein
  
• for-gods-sake-dont-donate-to-the-international-peace-institute-unless-you-want-to-pay-for-corrupt-assholes-to-fly-first-class-around-the-world-to-give-speeches-about-how-everyone-needs-to
  
• a-counterintuitive-example-where-a-strong-prior-pulls-an-estimate-in-the-wrong-direction
  
• parallelizing-mcmc-across-the-sequence-length-this-one-is-really-cool
  
• 5-flavors-of-calibration
  
• statistics is 
• softly-effectively-in-the-age-of-genai
  
• sunstein-on-kissinger-no-opinion-on-the-whole-war-criminal-thing-but-the-generosity-that-he-showed-when-talking-about-star-wars-the-movie-not-the-weapons-program-was-incomparable
  
• Freakometrics on balance and calibration of probabilistic scores  insurance biases discrimination and fairness , criminal records
• Kaiser Fung on visualizing-hierarchies , four-reasons-to-unplug-radar-charts

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• january-hibernation-reading-a-catch-up
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , paul-celan-a-life-by-anna-arno

vox wonk

• market-value-non-degree-credentials-new-evidence-37-million-us-workers 
  
• stablecoins-and-exorbitant-privilege-money-creation
  
• how-tariff-war-shock-affected-safe-asset-privilege-us-treasuries 
  
• fdi-and-growth-age-global-value-chains 
  
• us-tariffs-may-deepen-integration-elsewhere
  
• europes-us-holdings-leverage-lies-marginal-demand
  
• europes-public-finances-warming-world
  

One Nation

 It is time to examine One Nation's rise.

In some polls they are more popular than the Liberals. As the late Julius Sumner Miller would say why is this so?

Firstly where is it occurring? It is mostly in the regions and it is mostly national party seats at risk. The people who have switched their votes are low educated and low income people mostly male.

In some ways it is understandable. The coalition has broken up twice since the last election so why vote for either party when they are fighting each other. Herein lies a great irony. No party has infighting like One Nation.

We can be pretty sure they have not switched voted because of policies because no-one knows what policies One Nation supports except a racist immigration program. Multi-culturisn is not as popular in the regions and sometimes has not reached them.

History shows it is unlikely One Nation can thrive. When they talk they are incoherent. They are reliant on Hanson who looks very old. Now they are rising in the polls they will have to produce policies.

Also  important is where liberal preferences go if they finish behind one nation on first preferences. Will they direct preferences to obvious morons?

Let us assume One Nation adopts policies similar to the Nationals. In the past two elections this has cost the liberals big time in the cities where it matters.

Put me in the unlikely camp on whether one nation thrives. They will get more media exposure and thus more times to show they have little idea of what to do. At present they only get exposed to 'friendly' media. ( Funny how Gerry Henderson hasn't noticed that!). Watch out when they are regularly on mainstream media.

There will be bust ups as they always occur. most people think realistically they are smarter than Hanson and do not like the grifting of some in one nation.

So yes I am a sceptic they will become the leading conservative party. In theory it should hurry up for the Liberals and Nationals to bury the hatched

the Ashes post mortem

 No I am not going to talk about the rate rise as I having nothing to add to my previous note except there are more to come.

Why did the poms lose the Ashes so comprehensively? Let us go through the reasons.

There was no preparation. This is not just a lack of matches before the Ashes started but also a lack of understanding of wickets. In the previous Ashes they were bowler friendly and they kept on that way ever since. Bumrah appreciated them last season yet the POmmie seemed not to understand this.  In an irony of ironies they would have suited Ollie Robinson who was toiling away in grade cricket in sydney.  Carse was obviously injured after the tour of NZ. He reached 98 mph there yet the next english season was only bowling in the mid 80s.  Both Archer and Wood were injury prone.  They still had Woakes opening the bowling when they played India so they came here without a proven opening pair of bowlers.  You need to use a kookaburra from the first over as it stops swinging after about 30 overs.

They must have known Head loved short balls outside the offstump but they kept on bowling to him there. By the time they bowled short on the legstump where is vulnerable his eye was well and truly in. Atkinson is an accurate bowler in england but not here. Why? 

They also never thought clearly about spin bowling. Their first choice was never going to be successful and they had no 2nd choice!

Smith had a shocker of a series but that is simply bad luck. It could also mean poor coaching. His batting like others , seemed to show no lessons were learned at all.

The batting was lamentable.Usally either Crawley or Stoles gets a decent score. not here. They failed to understand what a no 3 is like. This meant joe Root came in time and time again when the ball was stil lswinging and thus he was vulnerable.

We have to talk about the first test. They had it and their mercy and lost. Mentally they were gone after that.

We had injuries and a suspect batting lineup but it didn't matter.

I suspect  we will learn nothing from the Ashes certainly SA will hope so.

They must have learnt not to play at balls angling towards slips and they do have bowlers ( and wickets) which may expose us.

We play SA, the kiwis and then India

what should the poms do? 

  I would not change the batting or Wikkie although I would not be surprised at another opener. The bowling would appear top be Archer, Tongue, Atkinson and Ahmed remembering they do have two decent spare time spinners in Root and Bethell.

poor OLD Gerry

 Gerry Henderson is getting older and sillier.

He likes to characterise people as left of centre or right of centre. No-one but no-one is in the centre. Thus he can characterise Ian Dunt as left of centre. Perhaps this is because he criticised the previous conservative government and is very critical of Reform. Perhaps Gerry missed his criticism of Starmer. Nevermind but calling him left of centre is absurd. Nikky Savva is a leftist!!

He doesn't like when journalists insist on politicians answer the question they ask. He says that is interrupting. If they do not do this they are 'soft' questions so he wins either way.  I wondered what he made of Sharri Markson's 'interview' of the Israeli PM, you know the indicted war criminal. He said nothing so I guess sometimes he likes 'soft' questions from the right people.

He didn't like Fitzsimmons questioning of Roberts on climate change. He alleged sneering. In his sneering reply he said Roberts had both an engineering degree and a MBA. He failed to mention his views on climate change. Funny about that.

I guess I should say in ending his big recruitment selection of the Sydney Institute was putting his wife on the payroll.

There was a time when he was a big supporter of refugees. Alas like other things this has diminished in his old age.

Is the US a failed state ?

 The USA is a lawless country.

Citizens are killed merely for demonstrating or helping people,, People are threatened for photographing public servants at 'work'. The President sues the very government he heads up.

HOWEVER Trump is very unpopular. The very issue he 'owned' he has gone vastly underwater on. It is clear why. Most people were happy for him to go after the undocumented migrants who were criminals, the murders and rapists so to speak. They were no happy for him to go after law abiding people serving and working in their community.

There was an implicit contract wit these people. if you are law abiding, go about your work and serve in your community then everything is fine. Trump has NOT done that. They have gone into selected areas and in a haphazard way rounded up anyone who looks or talks like and 'undocumented immigrant. It is a terrible way to do this. Most people rounded up are not criminals. Latinos who formerly backed trump on this policy have now turned on him and for good reason. It is both inhumane and racist hence why Stephen Miller supports it!

I continue to believe the mid-terms will again be bad for trump. If only because both he and his entourage are incompetent. Aslo the american people like a congress by democrats to put a stop on him.

And talking of Trump THIS is one of the better articles on him thanks to the cancelled  Nick Gruen.