the Doors

 Robert Duvall recently dies. The ride of the valkyries is out this this isn't.

but this is longer

Around the Traps 27/2/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Lasura Maneti on the-ground-beneath-sydney-emits-radiation-but-its-nothing-to-worry-about
• Laura de Zwaan on what-are-your-options-if-you-cant-afford-to-repay-your-mortgage
• Donald Rothwell on australian-children-in-syria-roj-camp-support
• Ali Mamouri and Fethi Mansouri on pauline-hansons-no-good-muslims-comment-shows-how-normalised-islamophobia-has-become-in-australia
• Mark the Graph on where-is-nairu-and-what-does-it-mean-for-the-RBA
• Greg Jericho on capital-gains-tax-discount-federal-budget-coalition-tax-cuts-for-the-richest
• Pandanus Petter et al on politicians-say-immigration-threatens-australian-values-but-our-research-shows-no-one-knows-exactly-what-that-means
• Ely Ratner on hard-conversations-australia-s-defence

OZ Climate

• australias-biggest-publicly-owned-wind-farm-gets-federal-green-tick-to-go-ahead-in-queensland
  
• transgrids-latest-cost-blowout-raises-a-key-question-what-was-the-point-of-privatising-energy-networks
  
• gas-the-stealthy-price-setter-of-australias-high-electricity-bills-as-batteries-continue-to-bite
  
• new-battery-made-exclusively-for-homes-launches-onto-red-hot-australian-market
  
• state-labor-pledges-huge-renewables-tender-for-land-twice-the-size-of-kangaroo-island
  
• higher-fixed-network-tariffs-could-cancel-out-the-savings-from-the-cheaper-home-batteries-rebate
  
• australias-biggest-renewables-grid-stress-test-facility-gets-a-3-million-upgrade
  
• new-demand-new-renewables-industry-calls-on-data-centres-to-byo-solar-wind-and-storage
• Adam Morton on australia-fuel-tax-credit-scheme-government-anti-climate-policy-under-pressure

Northern America

• Brad De Long on crosspost-josh-marshall-dont-be-fooled-by the corrupt-courts-tariff-decision , understanding-the-state-of-the-corrupt-supreme-court-today
• institutional economics on kevin-hassett-partisanship-and-epistemic-closure
• Kent Jones on supreme-court-rules-against-trumps-emergency-tariffs-but-leaves-key-questions-unanswered
• the conversable economist on trumps-tariffs-have-not-shifted-the-trade-deficit
• Kruggers on tariff-policy-by-the-numbers , attack-of-the-zombie-tariffs , a-sotu-like-no-other , when-extraterrestrials-attacked-the-stock-market
• Felicity Deane on trump-hikes-global-tariffs-to-15-as-the-fallout-from-supreme-court-loss-continues
• David Frum on polling-crisis-gallup
• noahpinion  on does-anyone-know-why-were-still-doing , the-citrini-post-is-just-a-scary-bedtime-story , why-does-america-feel-worse-than-other-countries-crime!
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-learning-resources-major-questions-doctrine-gorsuch-barrett
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-clarence-thomas-mail-voting
• Tom Nicholls on republican-party-nazi-problem
• David Cole on trading-with-the-enemy-supreme-court-tariffs
• Tyler Cowen on the-macroeconomic-effects-of-tariffs
• Jeet Heer on trump-iran-war-threats-iraq
• Shirin Ali on aileen-cannon-jack-smith-supreme-court-opening-trump
• Adam Serwer on elite-accountability-powerful-impunity
• 
  

Europe

• Laura Gozzi on civilians to soldiers
• Kruggers on day-1461-of-putins-three-day-war
• Ben Wellings on the-epstein-scandal-has-battered-britains-political-establishment-can-the-radical-right-reform-party-benefit
• Mick Ryan on russia-ukraine-conflict-1461-days-war
• Hans Van Leeuwen on andrew-symptom-monarchy-s-existential-crisis-not-cause
• Dan Sabbagh on russia-fighting-ukraine-war-throughout-2026-military-thinktank
• Marcus Colla on dilemmas-german-defence

Asia

• Laura Bicker on China a renewables superpower
• Amin Saikal on israel-is-accelerating-its-creeping-annexation-of-the-west-bank-can-donald-trump-stop-it
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-dan-caine-war-plans
• David Schulman on evil-in-the-west-bank
• Simon Theobald on irans-exiled-crown-prince-is-touting-himself-as-a-future-leader-is-this-whats-best-for-the-country
• Sue Thompson on sabah-s-borders-indonesia-joins-malaysia-philippines-dispute 
• Sean Turnell on myanmar-s-junta-next-fall

Wonk

• Jonathan Emerson-Pierce on without virtue freedom fails 
• Marco Giancotti on culture-is-the-mass-synchronization-of-framings Thanks Nick
• Dean Ashenden on a-learning-experience Thanks Nick
• the cutting floor on participation-without-power Thanks Nick
• Mathew Lamb on the-meeting-that-never-was Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on is-macroeconomics-a-science
• Tim Harford on the-paradox-of-work
• Zack Beauchamp on brazil-democracy-trump-bolsonaro-multiparty
• Martin Kear on why-are-the-phrases-globalise-the-intifada-and-from-the-river-to-the-sea-so-contested
• Ross Babbage on trump-s-international-strategy-becoming-clearer 
• Jenny Gordon on supreme-court-ruling-means-we-need-international-institutions-more-ever 
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-understanding-bond-stock-price-comovements
• the conversable economist on did-negative-interest-rates-work , laying-off-workers-cheap-vs-expensive/
• renew economy on can-the-iea-survive-without-the-us-or-will-it-cave-in-to-the-fossil-fuel-lobby
• Angelica Duran-Martinez on violent-aftermath-of-mexicos-el-mencho-killing-follows-pattern-of-other-high-profile-cartel-hits
• Tyler Cowen on jason-furman-on-ai-contestability
• Kruggers on the-economics-of-faltering-fascism

General

• Michelle Moffitt on good-fungus-may-one-day-help-save-plants-from-bad-fungus-like-deadly-myrtle-rust-disease
• Melissa Licari on how-tourettes-causes-involuntary-outbursts-and-what-people-with-the-condition-want-you-to-know
• Ashna Gulati and Tara Murphy on a-cosmic-explosion-with-the-force-of-a-billion-suns-went-unseen-until-we-caught-its-echo
• Anais Moller on 20-billion-galaxies-new-survey-of-the-sky-will-reveal-the-universe-in-unprecedented-detail

Climate

• David Leitch on new-global-data-confirms-renewables-are-booming-and-not-just-in-the-big-economies 
• ocean acidification on blue-carbon-ecosystems-and-coral-reefs-as-coupled-nature-based-climate-solutions
• the conversable economist on effective-taxes-on-carbon-an-international-view
• skeptical science on fact-brief-do-solar-panels-work-in-cloudy-and-cold-climates , new_research
• Nikolai Drahos on hard-part-net-zero-mobilising-big-emitters-behind-reforms

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• computing-pi-by-flipping-a-coin
  
• giving-less-power-to-statistical-power 
  
• hey-self-publishers-you-appear-to-be-getting-scammed
  
• living-the-metascience-dream-or-nightmare-with-ai-for-science
  
• tufte-on-graphs-as-comparisons
  
• survey-statistics-sampling-to-assess-data-quality
  
• axel-f-meets-samuel-beckett-in-the-worlds-most-pointless-conversation
  
• journalists-and-the-people-they-interview-the-individual-contract-and-the-social-contract
  
• hey-what-the-froot-is-up-with-this-harvard-website
  
• statschat on out-of-warranty
• freakometric on identity theft as systematic risk
• Kaiser Fung on me-on-the-coffee-line , coffee-machine-math , beautiful-chart-to-behold

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• creating-high-opportunity-neighbourhoods-evidence-hope-vi-programme 
  
• gender-wage-gap-and-what-firms-have-do-it
  
• geopolitical-risk-and-supply-chain-diversification 
  
• ruling-rich-evidence-pro-wealthy-bias-us-supreme-court
  
• export-bans-werent-really-bans-how-russia-kept-importing-military-goods
  
• work-home-wage-premium
  
• tale-two-financial-centres-brexit-uncertainty-and-fragility-cross-border-capital 
  
• mortgage-borrower-actions-dampen-impact-higher-rates-monthly-payments
  
• how-xs-algorithm-shifts-political-attitudes
  
• geopolitics-evaluation-international-scientific-collaboration
  

Productivity

 Beware I am going to rant.

productivity is a very hard subject. It is hard to measure, it is hard to see in data and sometimes the data goes against your own biases.

Measuring it is very hard and in certain sectors it is impossible particularly in the non-market sector. How do you measure productivity of a doctor, teacher, nurse etc.

Generally most people agree multi-factor productivity is the way to go BUT it aint timely!

Firstly if I go to my Marxist hat the people who have responsibility for raising productivity are capitalists. If they do not p[rofits should fall IF they are in a competitive sector. This means competition policy should be top of the heap for any government. Micro-economics trumps everything in other words.

However if we go back into the past we find problems. A long time ago Roger Douglas was the Treasurer in New Zealand and introduced a lot of micro-economic reform. However as John Quiggin  pointed out at the time Australian productivity was superior to New Zealand's. This did not compute. Related to this is way back in the 80s it was found productivity was superior in  European nations with highly regulated labour markets than in counties that had flexible labour markets. We have found productivity has gone the wrong way as we gained a much more flexible labour marker. 

holy confusion batman.

There are a lot of words written on this topic but we still have no real idea of why it increased and why it stopped in Australia

what is the point with Iran

 The USA now has a lot of offensive power to attack Iran however why would they attack Iran?

We were told the US obliterates Iran's nuclear capabilities so was this true or not?

Another reason is to assist the protesters against the Mullahs who hold actual power yet we are not told how this would be done.

Yet another reason is to destroy Iran's missile capabilities particularly the long term ones.

Then there is how much has Iran built up their defences since Israel and the US attacked them. Clearly the russian weapons turned out to be hopeless last time but we are told the Chinese have leapt into the vacuum with some very good anti-aircraft defenses.

It could well be Trump has let his venezuelan operation go to his head.

We shall see.

It matters not because it will be illegal and the US will only have Israel as an ally.

This is not good for the USA, US or the World!!

I just saw Richard Hass make a very good point. The USA has plenty of bases in the Middle East and they are highly vulnerable to high speed missiles. I can imagine Iran would be thinking the USA would not want to hang around if a lot of US soldiers were killed and for nought. Trump would be pilloried from pillar to post! 

Poor old Andy

 The former prince andrew had the life of riley. He was not that bright but was never going to be King. So he enjoyed everything royalty gave him but simply did  not worry about the responsibilities.

He did not have any money worries ( living rent free is a big asset) and had 'friends' to help him live 'life to the fullest'.

He was also the favourite of the queen showing yet again she was a poor parent. Parents never have favourite children! Again being the favourite meant no discipline or advice  for 'poor choices'.

He now faces his day of reckoning as life catches up with him. He is under arrest but not yet charged. Whether he will be charges is problematic as it will be hard to do so so the experts tell us. This does not matter. He has no reputation. He cannot go out in public because of the shame.

We are told the government will bring in legislation sssso it is impossible for him to be King. Since he is EIGHTH  in line this is performative at best however it is a great example why a monarchy should never exist in a capitalist society where people never advance on their bloddlines.

This is a very sad story of a person who never learnt from his mistakes because he did not realise they are mistakes.

I should have added he was NOT arrested  on charges relating to having sex with minores .Neither was the Prince of Darkness for obvious reasons he does not like young girls@@

A sad anniversary

 It is now 4 years since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Originally most 'experts' thought Russia would have a quick victory and Ukraine would become a vassal state. This proved wrong and ukraine proved to be a formidable foe.They have proved to be both industrious and very flexible.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine then they began the hostilities. It is impossible to argue Ukraine began this fight.

An expanding NATO was never a problem either as it is, lome most treaties, a DEFENSIVE treaty. you can only call on other members if someone attacks your country.

Russia is not a great military power. Their tactics are poor and they do not appear to learn from any defeats. Their economy is in very bad shape thus Putin is conning everyone about peace talks. He has to gain a lot of territory politically.

It is interesting that Estonia recently wrote about Russia if Putin is deposed and it is worse than now!!

The western world should fully support Ukraine so it  defeats Russia. Biden was way too timid and Trump is a Russian agent in acts if not in words.

No-one knows how much longer this war will last.

Postscript:

I should have added we as a nation should have given them out FA-18s. They are still okay, we are not using them and they are much easier to make airfields for!

Bob Dylan again

Two weeks ago I went to the local pub and had a parmy with my youngest son and heard mozambique for the first time since the glory days of doublejay rock.

yet again I prefer the studio version

Around the Traps 20/2/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Antony Green on will-the-coalition-face-messy-by-election-in-sussan-leys-seat-of-farrer , farrer-a-liberal-or-national-seat
• John Hawkins on want-to-know-whats-really-going-on-in-australian-politics-a-four-way-tussle-in-farrer-may-tell-us
• Hal Pawson on 55-000-extra-social-housing-homes-are-being-built-but-a-new-study-shows-that-boom-still-falls-short
• Michelle Grattan on who-is-angus-taylor-and-could-he-cut-it-as-opposition-leader , angus-taylor-appoints-tim-wilson-as-part-of-a-new-look-liberal-economic-team
• Se Youn Park on australia-has-ruled-out-repatriation-for-isis-families-this-isnt-a-safe-or-coherent-plan
• Greg Jericho on real-wages-fall-australia-workers-economy
• Christopher Hoy on real-wages-have-gone-backwards-even-earning-100-000-isnt-what-it-used-to-be
• Terence Cheng on private-health-insurance-premiums-will-rise-4-41-this-year-but-is-it-justified
• Jennifer Parker on chinese-warships-australians-never-got-debate

OZ Climate

• no-concrete-no-b-doubles-major-solar-and-battery-project-promises-ultra-light-touch 
  
• if-were-going-to-hold-an-inquiry-into-the-life-cycle-of-solar-why-not-coal-and-gas 
  
• no-concrete-no-b-doubles-major-solar-and-battery-projhttps://reneweconomy.com.au/no-concrete-no-b-doubles-major-solar-and-battery-project-promises-ultra-light-touch/ect-promises-ultra-light-touch
  
• we-dont-doubt-ourselves-fortescues-race-to-real-zero-and-the-radical-rethink-behind-it
  
• solar-and-wind-titans-reboot-push-for-huge-inland-renewables-zone-as-least-regret-pathway-to-coal-free-nsw
  
• records-tumble-as-nine-wind-and-solar-projects-1-gw-of-batteries-join-grid-in-just-three-months
  
• can-inverter-based-technologies-do-the-system-security-job-of-big-spinning-machines
  
• if-green-iron-is-the-future-for-whyalla-steelworks-locking-in-costly-and-dirty-gas-is-a-dead-end
  
• could-the-aemc-be-kinda-right-about-fixed-network-costs-late-submission-lobs-curve-ball-into-debate
• Rod Sims and Rebecca Burdon on don-t-be-gaslit-on-climate-there-s-no-going-back-on-this-energy-transition
• Milton Speer and Lance Leslie on dramatic-changes-in-upper-atmosphere-are-responsible-for-recent-droughts-and-bushfires-new-research

Northern America

• institutional economics on productivity-and-inflation-then-and-now
• persuasion on the-democrats-are-still-lost Thanks Nick
• Gilad Edelman on epstein-files-guilt-association Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on who-is-paying-the-trump-tariffs , turning-our-back-on-clean-energy , how-the-kakistocracy-became-a-quackistocracy ,billionaires-gone-wild , ieepa-ieepa-ieepa
• Christian Paz on epstein-trump-bondi-rogan-conspiracy-files-release-young-men 
• Brad De Long on from-plato-to-nato-to-maga
• Gibbs Knotts and Christopher Cooper on how-jesse-jackson-was-shaped-by-southern-segregation-and-went-on-to-reshape-american-political-life
• James Trapani on misreading-monroe-doctrine-creating-true-gulf-americas
• Menzie Chinn on output-gaps-again , guest-contribution-usury-laws-and-trumps-proposed-cap-on-credit-card-interest-rates
• Eric Levitz on trump-economy-jobs-inflation-gas-prices-polls
• David Frum on mona-charen-conservatism
• home and Away on bombs-bad-bunny-and-the-biathlon
• Alex Tabbarok on the-cassidy-report-on-the-fda
• Steve Benen on white-house-eyes-punishments-for-economists-who-told-the-truth-about-tariffs-consumers
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-new-york-gerrymandering-williams-malliotakis , supreme-court-trump-tariffs-learning-resources
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-doj-confession-new-jersey-court-deportations-ice , trump-bully-supreme-court-tariffs-roberts-barrett-gorsuch
• Jordana Salaama on the-chaos-of-an-ice-detention
• Ruxandra Teslo on the-30-year-success-story-the-us Thanks Tyler
• Ted Dehaven on trumps-slush-fund-venezuela-oil-gaza-board-of-peace-tariffs
• James Hamilton on gdp-continues-to-grow

Europe

• Lisa Martin on denmark-plays-royal-flush-trump-greenland-saga
• Jennifer Mathers on ukraine-if-elections-are-held-this-spring-who-might-be-the-next-president
• David Kirichenko on ukraine-s-population-hardest-stretch-war
• Stephen Kinsella on the-best-way-to-understand-the-irish-economy Thanks Tyler
• Henry Storey on european-industry-faces-existential-china-challenge
• Francesca Jackson on why-has-andrew-mountbatten-windsor-been-arrested-and-what-legal-protections-do-the-royal-family-have
• Jo Coghlin et al on could-andrew-mountbatten-windsors-arrest-bring-down-the-british-monarchy
• Nikola Mikovic on peace-ukraine-still-out-reach

Asia

• Shahad Uddin on bangladesh-nationalist-party-secures-victory-in-first-election-since-sheikh-hasinas-ousting
• Christian Emery on trump-insists-iran-talks-must-continue-but-military-action-is-not-off-the-table
• Adam Hawkins on what-thailands-election-means-for-the-future-of-the-country-and-its-beleaguered-pro-democracy-forces
• Amin Saikal on israel-is-accelerating-its-creeping-annexation-of-the-west-bank-can-donald-trump-stop-it
• Intifar Chowdhury on bangladesh-charts-new-multipolar-course
• Sanchari Ghosh on india-s-fleet-review-was-much-diplomacy-pageantry

Wonk

• the argument on the-postliberal-war-on-economics Thanks Nick
• the preamble on what-if-representative-democracy-isn't-the-only-way Thanks Nick
• jacobin on mann-doctor-faustus-fascism-far-right Thanks Nick
• George Orwell on not-counting-niggers Thanks Nick
• noahpinion on you-are-no-longer-the-smartest-type-of-thing-on-earth , updated-thoughts-on-ai-risk
• Chris Bertram on runcimans-rawls
• Hamid Ali et al on the-peer-review-system-is-breaking-down-heres-how-we-can-fix-it
• Tyler Cowen on taxing-beta-exempting-alpha-a-benchmark-based-inheritance-regime
• Kevin Foster on a-history-of-assassination-reveals-how-targeted-killings-became-an-extension-of-state-power
• Alex Tabbarok on minimum-wages-for-gig-work-cant-work
• Shameek Godara on can-quad-regain-momentum-after-india-us-reset
• the conversable economist on some-evidence-on-ai-productivity-and-labor-markets
• Aiden Warren on new-start-expired-now-what-global-nuclear-stability
• Monique Taylor on london-rules-slow-horses-modern-security-state
• slow boring on ai-progress-is-giving-me-writers-block thanks Brad
• Chris Dillow on economic-growth-as-social-change
• Maria O'Sullivan on with-more-restrictive-laws-across-the-country-how-can-we-protect-the-right-to-protest

General

• Jenny Graves on men-lose-their-y-chromosome-as-they-age-scientists-thought-it-didnt-matter-but-now-were-learning-more
• Caroline Gurvich et al on what-causes-depression-what-we-know-dont-know-and-suspect

Climate

• real climate on epas-final-ruling-on-co2
• Robyn Eckersly on trump-has-scrapped-the-long-standing-legal-basis-for-tackling-climate-emissions
• Sharon Thawaney on climate-diplomacy-has-moved-beyond-days-single-grand-bargain
• Owen Atkin et al on intense-heatwaves-directly-threaten-crops-and-native-species-heres-what-we-can-do
• ocean acidification on the-silent-shift-how-ocean-acidification-and-rising-temperature-affect-marine-organisms
• noahpinion on china-is-killing-the-fish
• skeptical science on new_research
• Moyhu on january-global-surface-templs-up-004-from-december

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-stupidity-the-criminal-vandalism-the-wanton-destruction-of-information-involved-in-dichotomisation
  
• funniest-predatory-journal-pitch-ever
  
• hanging-out-an-observational-study
  
• the-atlantic-monthly-march-1947
  
• survey-statistics-gallups-presidential-approval-ratings
  
• fitting-a-model-to-estimate-the-seats-votes-curve-back-in-the-bad-old-days-before-we-had-stan
  
• the-80-power-lie
  
• what-do-socrates-herb-simon-and-andrew-gelman-have-in-common-a-love-of-the-oral-tradition
• from junk science to junk medical treatments
•  staschat on cancer-hates-mornings-too , out-of-warranty
• Kaiser Fung on data-hunting-on-the-radar-chart , as-usual-no-ones-doping

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Christos Tsiolkas on melania Thanks Nick
• Jodi McAlister on is-wuthering-heights-actually-romantic-heathcliff-would-say-no

Vox Wonk

• silver-lining-european-energy-crisis-energy-efficiency-productivity-and-potential
  
• school-supervised-edtech-support-produces-massive-learning-gains-khan-academy-field
  
• how-ai-affecting-productivity-and-jobs-europe
  
• economics-kalshi-prediction-market
  
• eu-capital-markets-reform-should-focus-innovation-investment
  
• rethinking-existing-tax-schemes-political-giving-and-charitable-donations
  

What is Trump hiding?

 I am stumped at Trump's role in curtailing the Epstein files.

I have previously said I cannot see any evidence he broke the law here and I do not see Trump having sex with minors.

Releasing the epstein files alah the legislation is a no-brainer. Of course there will be embarrassments but people will forget them quickly. Getting it over and done with makes political sense however trump is doing the exact opposite. This has two main problems for trump.

1. It keeps Epstein in the headlines
2. People now think Trump and epstein are interwoven and has done 'wrong' things.

Trump is not very intelligent indeed quite the opposite. He is easily the most low IQ President we have seen in out lifetime. His actions on this merely proves this.

Wow Epstein in 2017 said Trump had too much orange and was suffering from dementia however this has vanished without a trace!!

Taylor's new lineup

 Angus Taylor announced his new shadow lineup. See Michelle Grattan.

I have reservations. In no particular order here they are.

• Taylor was a very poor minister and just as bas shadow treasurer. Why on earth does anyone think he can succeed as Opposition Leader?
• He appointed Tim Wilson as shadow treasurer. The only person who thinks wilson is impressive is wilson.
• He wants to cut immigration. This will impact both skilled labour and universities. There is no evidence this has penetrated the Opposition as yet. One Nation can be  moorons. the LNP cannot!
• Changing the leader does not solve the major problems for the opposition.
• The structural deficit is about $20b. In what time do they think they can eliminate this?
• They have few seats in the cities primarily because they are not seen as fair dinkum on climate change.  One nation and the nationals following them will ensure this continues.

The present government is not impressive.They are very timid thus we need an opposition that is ready for government. We do not have it now and it seems unlikely for a while.

Farrer could be interesting

 John Hawkins says Farrer could tell us where australian politics is heading in the near future.

Antony Green tells us all about the lecorate HERE and HERE.

We shall get a four way fight. The Liberals who currently hold it  after they won it when Tim fischer retired. The Nationals who want it back although it was a Liberal seat before that.. One Nation who believe they are on a roll and an Independent ( no I do not believe two independents).

Okay let us make a guess. Green preferences will go mostly to the ALP unless they think they can crown the Independent.  One Nation will gain at the expense of both the Liberals and also the National party but mainly the latter.

ALP  preferences will go to the independent. This will put her into second place. The National preferences wil ggo mainly to One nation.

The Liberal vote will be down because of the Liberals knifing Ley and antipathy towards Taylor. some votes will go to one nation but also towards the independent.

Thus the contest on final preferences will again be between the Liberal candidate and the Independent. Thus I would not be surprised if the Independent wins however I say that with no confidence.

The West Wing

 I am using youtube quite a bit these days. The rest is history, the rest is politics, legal and political issues in the USA , the invasio0n of ukraine as well as music makes it essential viewing.

One thing that came up out of nowhere was the west wing.

It was one of my favourite series.

Fabulous cast, sensational writing, characters that are good and bad. I could go on but you get the point.

If you have not watched the serries then do so. It is clearly the BEST US series I have ever watched.

Here is a sample

Bob Dylan

 Knocking on Heaven's door come from one of my top 10 Westerns, Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid, which Bob wrote the soundtrack.

but I prefer the studio version

Around the Traps 13/2/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Adriahn Beaumont on why-preferential-voting-is-superior-to-first-past-the-post
• Jago Dodson and Liam Davies on how-cutting-the-capital-gains-tax-discount-could-help-rebalance-the-housing-market
• Kieran Hardy on is-australias-terrorism-definition-still-fit-for-purpose
• Bronwyn Cumbo on can-australia-build-one-of-the-worlds-largest-data-centres
• Andrea Carson and Finley Watson on yes-one-nations-poll-numbers-are-climbing-but-major-party-status-let-alone-government-is-still-a-long-way-off
• Simon Bronitt on was-the-violent-sydney-protest-avoidable-and-what-can-police-and-demonstrators-learn
• Luke Hartigan on what-exactly-is-inflation-and-are-interest-rates-the-only-option-for-dealing-with-it
• Antony Green on the-success-of-local-independents-kooyong
• Greg Jericho on point-of-no-return-hothouse-earth-global-heating-climate-tipping-points
• Mick Ryan on australia-s-new-national-defence-strategy-must-embrace-adaptation-warfare-evolves
• Tony Barry on sussan-ley-is-todays-scapegoat-but-she-was-never-the-liberals-core-problem
• Peter Breadon and Molly Chapman on bulk-billing-rates-are-up-but-theres-more-to-delivering-the-best-possible-care

OZ Climate

• first-solar-battery-hybrid-sends-power-into-evening-peak-heralding-radical-changes-for-australias-main-grid
  
• home-battery-numbers-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-rebate-launch-as-installers-take-a-beat
  
• pumped-hydro-is-vital-to-the-future-grid-so-why-does-gas-exploration-get-all-the-tax-benefits
  
• dont-reinvent-the-wheel-big-investors-fear-nem-reform-could-backfire-on-wind-industry
  
• plan-to-increase-fixed-network-costs-will-take-from-the-poor-give-to-the-rich-and-slash-returns-on-pv-and-batteries
  
• australias-key-emissions-reduction-policy-is-doing-a-great-job-of-safeguarding-gas-producers
  
• australias-biggest-coal-generator-learns-how-to-make-more-money-out-of-its-customers-and-big-battery-fleet
  
• moves-afoot-to-bring-balcony-solar-to-australia-and-new-wave-of-products-has-batteries-included
  
• origin-says-big-batteries-playing-well-with-ageing-fossils-but-wont-rule-out-new-gas-peakers
  
• australias-clean-energy-transition-has-been-powered-by-people-solar-for-renters-is-the-next-chapter
  
• the-little-battery-that-could-pave-the-way-for-ageing-coal-generators-to-be-shut-down-on-schedule
  
• Nick Whiterod et al on the-lower-murray-is-officially-on-life-support-will-we-save-it
• Adam Morton on there-will-never-be-a-better-time-to-revisit-carbon-pricing-in-australia-but-does-labor-have-the-stomach-to-make-polluters-pay

Northern America

• one first on 208-the-fifth-circuit-jumps-the-immigration-detention-shark Thanks Brad
• Jonathan Rauch on america-fascism-trump-maga-ice Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on the-debasement-trade-meets-the-warsh-steepener
• Grant Wyeth on exploiting-old-gripes-trump-s-grab-51st-state
• noahpinion on why-americas-extremes-will-both-fail
• Kruggers on federal-reserve-101-part-ii-the-global- financial-crisis -and-its-aftermath , seduced-by-the-louis-xiv-treatment , no-ai-doesnt-justify-lower-interest , the-banality-of-maga-evil , making-america-stagnate-again , the-maga-bubble-is-imploding
• Peter Wehner on evangelicals-trump-national-prayer-breakfast
• Eric Levitz on trump-midterms-2026-rigged-election-fulton-county-gabbard-bondi
• Fred Kaplan on pete-hegseth-military-harvard-donald-trump
• the conversable economist on asian-americans-two-alternate-histories , us-budget-deficits-spitting-into-the-wind
• home and away on the-end-of-shame
• Umair Irfan on epa-climate-endangerment-finding-trump-coal-fuel-economy
• Bill Haskell on costs-vs-benefits-for-clean-air
• Ricardo Hausman on america-credibility-problem-could-lead-to-rupture-if-not-addressed
• Eric Levitz on trump-doj-democrats-indictment-national-guard-ice

Europe

• Sam Power on the-british-public-has-lost-faith-in-politics-the-peter-mandelson-scandal-must-be-a-wake-up-call-for-keir-starmer
• Jeremy Horder on what-exactly-is-misconduct-in-public-office-and-could-peter-mandelson-be-convicted
• Imran Khalid on rebranding-europe-s-energy-transition-climate-policy-survival
• Joy Neumeyer on poland-halfway-to-democracy-new-politics-of-poland
• Simon Schuster on zelensky-trump-peace-deal-ukraine-russia
• renew economy on renewables-account-for-more-than-55-pct-of-spains-energy-mix-in-2025-and-in-first-month-of-2026

Asia

• Aswin Lin on why-taiwan-dome-won-t-survive-chinese-attack
• Adam Simpson on japans-rock-star-leader-now-has-the-political-backing-to-push-a-bold-agenda-will-she-deliver
• noahpinion on the-takaichi-era-begins-for-real
• Gerhard Hofstaeder et al on rohingya-boats-out-mind-still-coming
• Syong-Hyon Lee on zhang-youxia-fallen-general
• Peter Chai and Willy Jou on power-surprise-how-takaichi-s-snap-election-delivered-ldp-landslide
• Mehmet Ozalp on how-irans-current-unrest-can-be-traced-back-to-the-1979-revolution

Wonk

• Noah Carl on why-are-intelligent-people-more-liberal Thanks Nick
• existential politics on the-tragedy-of-the-centre-left Thanks Nick
• cosmos institute on on-the-noble-uses-of-ai Thanks Nick
• Andy Masely on a-list-of-other-catastrophes-that-are-probably-fake Thanks Nick
• Jason Burke on 1970s-extremism Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on when-psychologists-mislead-us
• Tyler Cowen on bryan-caplan-on-immigration-backlash
• the conversable economist on what-are-folk-economic-beliefs
• Doug Muir on the-stone-pillars-of-the-sons-of-seth
• Brad De Long on crosspost-josh-marshall-thinking-clearly-about-the-global-authoritarian-movement
• Samir Ramzy on sudans-latest-peace-plan-whats-in-it-and-does-it-stand-a-chance

General

• Robert King on oh-hedy-days-of-youth Thanks Nick
• Janet Cetinkaya and Ian Kidd on why-aristotle-would-hate-valentines-day-and-his-five-steps-to-love

Climate

• real climate on koonins-continuing-calumnies , the-climate-science-reference-they-dont-want-judges-to-read
• Umair Irfan on energy-abundance-access-electricty-progress-africa-oceania-energy-poverty
• Damian Carrington on point-of-no-return-hothouse-earth-global-heating-climate-tipping-points
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• anti
  
•  hey-heres-100000-down-the-drain
• review-of-string-theory-book-from-2004
  
• a-consensus-but-its-a-consensus-of-uncertainty
  
• my-talk-this-wed-noon-at-the-columbia-statistics-department-student-seminar
  
• survey-statistics-more-on-recalled-vote
  
• sethi-on-betting-on-geopolitical-violence
  
• the-new-york-young-republican-club-but-this-time-with-no-butt-plugs-or-dildos
  
• what-a-multiverse-good-for-anyway
  
• our-sanctimonious-overlords-kenneth-starr-edition
  
• Kaiser Fung on snow-math , alternatives-to-radar-chart-1
• statschat on coffee-brain , briefly
• freakometrics on  natural disasters avoidable or unpredictable disasters

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Brad De Long on assessing-brink-lindseys-the-permanent-problem
• Tyler Cowen on oliver-kim-reviews-how-africa-works

Vox Wonk

• generative-ai-german-firms-diffusion-costs-and-expected-economic-effects
  
•  future-under-glass
• showing-alps-economic-value-davos
  
• immigration-restrictions-and-natives-intergenerational-mobility-evidence-1920s-us 
  
• ai-investment-gdp-growth-ecosystem-view
  
• mapping-contours-chinese-policy-transmission-home-and-abroad
  
• when-war-weakens-democracy
  

If Angus Taylor is the answer then you have asked the wrong question

 The Opposition is in a real pickle. The last election was one of their worst ever defeats. Given the government's lack of achievements and their uninspiring leader then the reason surely has to be with the Opposition.

One view is the Nationals has supported policies that cost votes in the cities. I suspect this is on the money.

The next is the rise of one nation and the nationals response has been to go further to the populist right.

The Liberals have a decision to make. Is the future to regain the centre from the ALP or march further to the right.

Taylor thus far has yet to offer any solutions to the Liberals future. He is far from eloquest. His ministerial career has been poor, He frequently said base load power and dispatchable power  was the same thing. It aint. Coal fired power is base load power but is not dispatchable.

Ley has not had a fair go although in politics that is par for the course.

Answers to the last election loss are all over the place. Hastie for example wants to protect industry and so build it up. Others influenced by sky after dark want to move further to the right.

Ley clearly wants to move to the centre but has a disunited party.

Replacing her with Taylor does not fill me with any confidence. In normal times you would expect the liberals to have a largish swing towards them in the next election simply because of the last result. In an ironic move the surge in one nation may obviate this.

My only advice to the liberals is to move to the centre.

It has all been very sad

 It was a disgrace that people could not march to parliament house in sydney. however once the court made the decision that should have been that. no-one came out of that looking good.

THe pro=palestinian people gain showed no political nous.

The police looked highly undisciplined and suffering from a lack of training. clearly they escaladed things. They were there to do the opposite.

However the person who came out of the whole mess the worse was Chris Minns. The legislation clearly was not needed. There had been no violence previously. It was the legislation that promoted the violence. Minns clearly and consistently conflated the bondi massacre and pro-palestine marches. As yet he has asserted this without a shred of evidence. Does he actually believe this nonsense? Is he merely succumbing to pressure from the jewish lobby?

Allied to this was the assertion made on four corners by an ex-asio agent believing the two terrorists were radicalised a lot earlier ie  well before Israel's genocidal behaviour towards palestinians.

I might end by saying there is nothing wrong with asserting globalise the intifada. The intifada can ONLY occur in one specific geographical place. It aint sydney. If anyone expresses the phrase they are merely saying publicise the intifada so palestinians get justice. to say it explicitly supports against jews is absurd and misinformation. 

Herzog should NEVER have been invited

 Albo invited the Israeli President to Australia. It showed poor judgement.

It involved two major problems.

Firstly the incident had NOTHING to do with Palestinians or Israel's genocidal actions on them. Herzog's disgraceful words saying all Palestinians are responsible for October 7 is to all extents irrelevant to what occurred at Bondi. However it will undoubtedly get tangled up with it.

Secondly it will exacerbate deadly tropes about Jews and where their loyalties lie.

Battery update

 Our latest bill is $115. 

two things of note. The battery was not put in until the quarter had started.

My wife had the air conditioner on for a few nights which not only used up the battery but also meant we used the grid.

We do know now the dishwasher, washing machine, microwave do not take up much energy.

The big things are heating the water for the showers and the stove and oven.

We bought a 16 kw battery. If we bought a 50kw one we probably would need the grid.

Around the Traps 6/2/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kevin Bonham on the-low-impact-of-independent-preferences-in-2025
• Antony Green on here-we-go-again-the-future-of-the-national-party , one-nations-poll-surge-the-first-25-seats-to-watch
• institutional economics on three-cuts-forward-four-hikes-back
• Greg Jericho on rba-interest-rates-decision-analysis-reserve-bank-australia
• Stella Huangfu on rba-raises-interest-rates-as-inflation-pressures-remain-high
• Chris Sidoti on albanese-can-still-withdraw-the-invitation-to-israels-president-he-should-do-so-for-the-sake-of-social-cohesio
• Kurt Sengel and Jordan McSweeney on can-one-nation-turn-its-polling-hype-into-seats-in-parliament-history-shows-it-will-struggle
• Meg Elkins on what-the-rba-wants-australians-to-do-next-to-fight-inflation-or-risk-more-rate-hikes
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on is-federal-government-spending-really-to-blame-for-higher-inflation-its-not-clear-cut
• Levi West on why-did-it-take-9-days-to-declare-the-perth-bombing-attempt-a-terrorist-attack
• Carolin Kautz on canal-without-paddle-lessons-panama-australia

OZ Climate

• will-australia-reach-its-renewable-targets-on-time-it-will-need-a-lot-more-wind-and-solar
  
• locals-consider-options-after-losing-court-appeal-against-solar-farm-approval
  
• battery-prices-plunge-60-pct-in-two-years-changing-face-of-grid-and-the-nature-of-contracts
  
• big-batteries-are-pushing-down-current-and-expected-prices-in-the-evening-peaks
  
• rebates-strapped-a-rocket-to-home-battery-demand-but-has-rooftop-solar-peaked
  
• a-rule-change-request-snuck-in-over-christmas-could-radically-alter-how-the-main-grid-functions
  
• nsw-awards-contracts-to-six-huge-8-hour-battery-projects-including-the-biggest-in-australia
  
• wind-and-solar-curtailment-beneath-the-headline-numbers-from-2025
• first-solar-battery-hybrid-sends-power-into-evening-peak-heralding-radical-changes-for-australias-main-grid-changes-for-australias-main-grid
  
• Tony Wood on renewables-over-50-wholesale-prices-down-is-the-energy-transition-succeeding
• Duygu Yengin et al on why-cheaper-power-alone-isnt-enough-to-end-energy-poverty-in-summer

Northern America

• institutional economics on dollar-dominance-with-chinese-characteristics
• one percent brighter on the-venetian-option Thanks Nick
• Michael Ignatieff on lament for a nation Thanks Nick
• Oliver Hartwich on donald-trump-the-kaiser-in-mar-a-lago Thanks Nick
• Brian Blank and Brandy Hadley on 3-things-to-know-about-kevin-warsh-trumps-nod-for-fed-chair
• Eric Levitz on alex-pretti-new-video-ice-ai-trump
• the conversable economist on tariffs-and-inflation-where-are-we , when-social-security-went-haywire-in-the-1970s
• thinking about on ethnic-cleansing-in-ohio Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on federal-reserve-101 , kevin-warsh-and-weathervane-economics , american-democracy-will-not-die-in-darkness , profiles-in-cowardice-tariff-edition , is-this-cryptos-fimbulwinter , american-decency-still-lives
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-republicans-court-packing-utah-georgia-arizona , trump-minneapolis-minnesota-justice-department-broken
• Alyssa Rosenberg on melania-trump-documentary-first-lady-cash-grabs
• stay at home on kevin-warsh Thanks Tyler
• noahpinion on what-a-liberal-immigration-enforcement-might-look-like
• Fred Kaplan on trump-russia-new-start-nuclear-arms-race
• Adam Serwer on masks-ice-immigration
• Fintan O'Toole on the-crime-of-witness
• Isaac Chotiner on is-ice-leading-us-into-a-constitutional-crisis
• Menzie Chinn on when-tariffs-hit-home caligula revisited
• Shirin Ali on ice-agents-nice-little-database-google-meta-surveillance
• Alex Tabarrok on trumps-pharmaceutical-plan
• Ashley Parker on washington-post-layoffs-bezos
• Jeet Heer on politics/trump-corruption-uae-bribes , tulsi-gabbard-georgia-raid-election

Europe

• programmable mutter on europe-has-more-bargaining-strength-than-it-thinks thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on how-british-queues-got-out-of-hand
• Fred Kaplan on nato-exercise-without-america-rupture-europe
• Rod Thornton and Marina Miron on trump-wants-ukraine-to-give-up-the-donbas-in-return-for-security-guarantees-it-could-be-fatal-for-kyiv
• Martin Farr on the-fall-of-peter-mandelson-and-the-many-questions-the-uk-government-must-now-answer
• Michael Holz on the-assault-on-ukraines-power-grid

Asia

• Nicholas Coppell on us-policy-post-election-myanmar
• Shameek Godara on india-eu-trade-deal-beyond-mother-all-deals
• Haroro Ingram on unseen-front-philippines-china-challenge
• Piers Pigou on china-s-security-offerings-gain-traction-africa
• Yunyun Wahyuningram on rohingya-case-could-redefine-genocide-matters-asean
• Abhijnan Rej on bangladesh-s-election-can-culture-counter-extremism
• Phillip Saunders on xi-s-military-purges-will-make-him-wary-invading-taiwan

Wonk

• Hal Brands on trump-is-making-the-world-hedge-its-bets Thanks Nick
• Catherine Dee on andrew-tate-is-the-loneliest-bastard-on-earth Thanks Nick
• Alexander Kustov on the-uncomfortable-truths-about-immigration Thanks Nick
• Angel Zhong and Jason Tian on silver-and-gold-hit-record-highs-then-crashed-before-joining-the-rush-you-need-to-know-this
• noahpinion on what-if-ai-succeeds-but-openai-fails , international-financial-anarchy, p/the-fall-of-the-nerds
• Henry Maher on why-trumps-new-pick-for-fed-chair-hit-gold-and-silver-markets-for-good-reasons
• Peter Balonen-Rosen and Noel King on trump-foreign-policy-western-hemisphere-donroe-china-russia
• Arijan Shukla on hidden-cost-central-bank-independence
• Henry Yep on war-games-thriving-strategic-turbulence
• Sandy Holloway on mark-carney-wrong-about-rules-based-order
• the conversable economist on winter-2026-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-available-online

General

• Ben McCann on funny-tender-goofy-catherine-ohara-lit-up-the-screen-every-time-she-showed-up
• Claire Collins on does-coffee-raise-your-blood-pressure-heres-how-much-its-ok-to-drink
• Emlyn Dodd on olives-have-been-essential-to-life-in-italy-for-at-least-6-000-years-far-longer-than-we-thought
• John Horner on a-new-comet-was-just-discovered-will-it-be-visible-in-broad-daylight

Climate

• Jawad Khalid on climate-change-shared-problem-needs-shared-solutions
• skeptical science on polar-vortex-warm-ocean-storm , new_research

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-pantheon-of-celebrity-billionaires
  
• from-the-mixed-up-files-of-jeffrey-e-epstein
  
• for-gods-sake-dont-donate-to-the-international-peace-institute-unless-you-want-to-pay-for-corrupt-assholes-to-fly-first-class-around-the-world-to-give-speeches-about-how-everyone-needs-to
  
• a-counterintuitive-example-where-a-strong-prior-pulls-an-estimate-in-the-wrong-direction
  
• parallelizing-mcmc-across-the-sequence-length-this-one-is-really-cool
  
• 5-flavors-of-calibration
  
• statistics is 
• softly-effectively-in-the-age-of-genai
  
• sunstein-on-kissinger-no-opinion-on-the-whole-war-criminal-thing-but-the-generosity-that-he-showed-when-talking-about-star-wars-the-movie-not-the-weapons-program-was-incomparable
  
• Freakometrics on balance and calibration of probabilistic scores  insurance biases discrimination and fairness , criminal records
• Kaiser Fung on visualizing-hierarchies , four-reasons-to-unplug-radar-charts

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• january-hibernation-reading-a-catch-up
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , paul-celan-a-life-by-anna-arno

vox wonk

• market-value-non-degree-credentials-new-evidence-37-million-us-workers 
  
• stablecoins-and-exorbitant-privilege-money-creation
  
• how-tariff-war-shock-affected-safe-asset-privilege-us-treasuries 
  
• fdi-and-growth-age-global-value-chains 
  
• us-tariffs-may-deepen-integration-elsewhere
  
• europes-us-holdings-leverage-lies-marginal-demand
  
• europes-public-finances-warming-world