Around the Traps 4/4/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bernard Keane on kpmg-exposed-dodgy-hobart-afl-stadium-report Thanks Nick
• Fei Gao and Andrew Terrey on tobacco-excise-revenue-has-tanked-amid-a-booming-black-market-thats-a-diabolical-problem-for-the-government
• Brendan Coates et al on 25-years-into-a-new-century-and-housing-is-less-affordable-than-ever
• John Hawkins and Yogi Vidyattama on we-calculated-how-much-duttons-excise-cut-would-save-you-on-fuel-and-few-will-save-as-much-as-promised
• Wesley Morgan on dutton-unveils-plan-to-force-more-gas-into-australian-market-and-expand-production-in-major-pre-election-pitch
• Ross Gittins on budget-deficit-perfection-would-be-nice , are-you-better-off-now-thats-duttons-trick-question , the-fine-print-costing-australians-a-pay-rise
• Mark the Ballot on day-5-2025-federal-election , day-6-2025-federal-election
• Intifar Chowdhury on sweet-deals-sour-times-australia-s-blind-eye-trumponomics
• Peter Dean on defence-is-shaping-up-to-be-a-key-election-issue-whether-politicians-like-it-or-not
• Sam Roggeveen on yes-australia-can-defend-itself-independently
• Mercedes Page on australia-s-foreign-policy-reckoning-time-new-white-paper
• Greg Jericho on you-never-know-what-youre-gonna-get-australians-will-have-to-wait-until-after-the-election-to-see-if-theres-a-rate-cut
• croaking cassandra on reserve-bank-bank-capital-etc
• Ketan Joshi on coalitions-ted-obrien-admits-why-gas-is-a-disaster-for-energy-prices , coalition-leans-on-absurd-gas-definition-for-fossil-subsidy-bonanza
• Roland Rajah on trump-s-tariffs-australia-hit-stick-while-our-region-was-clobbered

OZ Climate

• low-rooftop-pv-tariffs-mean-solar-houses-are-subsidising-everyone-elses-power-supply
• how-cheap-is-peter-duttons-gas-and-how-does-it-compare-to-reckless-renewables
  
• origin-backed-energy-storage-start-up-unveils-breakthrough-redox-flow-battery
  
• no-more-fossil-gasplaining-going-electric-is-past-the-tipping-point-and-guaranteed-to-slash-cost-of-living
  
• origin-chooses-not-to-tap-taxpayer-funds-for-first-year-of-eraring-coal-plants-extended-operations
  
• really-terrible-bad-location-could-triple-cost-of-pumped-hydro-project-favoured-by-lnp
  
• social-hour-at-the-gas-rodeo-why-the-market-is-broken
  
• worlds-biggest-gold-miner-signs-up-to-buy-green-power-from-was-biggest-wind-farm
  
• from-video-ezy-to-netflix-report-offers-three-easy-reforms-to-get-nem-back-to-the-future
  
• another-big-battery-joins-the-grid-as-charging-and-discharging-records-fall-across-the-country
  
• victoria-needs-at-least-another-2-gw-of-committed-capacity-before-next-coal-closure-says-state-energy-chief
  
• Tony Wood on peter-dutton-gas-power-plan-comment
• Felicity Deane on under-a-coalition-government-the-fate-of-australias-central-climate-policy-hangs-in-the-balance
• Steve Turton on torrential-rains-created-devastating-inland-seas-in-outback-queensland-soon-they-will-fill-kati-thanda-lake-eyre

Northern America

• institutional economics on american-juche
• Roger Berkovitz on democracy-and-dissent Thanks Nick
• noahopinion on understanding-americas-new-right , the-latest-episode-of-mad-king-trump , tariffs-another-american-act-of-intentional-self harm
• angry bear on why-we-shouldnt-deport-undocumented-immigrants
• Chris Bertram on trumps-war-on-immigrants-is-the-cancellation-of-free-society
• Ben Hammond on voice-of-america-took-jazz-behind-the-iron-curtain-now-its-demise-signals-the-end-of-us-soft-power
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-law-firms-arrogant
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-arrest-student-tufts-rumeysa-ozturk
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on paul-clement-vs-donald-trump-big-law-firms
• Shirin Ali on trump-executive-order-voting-machines-fail
• Andrew Prokop on trump-retribution-targeting-israel-critics-biglaw-weissmann
• Menzie Chinn on james-hamilton-are-consumer-sentiment-studies-a-good-measure-of-the-economy
• croaking cassandra on farewell-to-orr, not-much-parliamentary-scrutiny
• Kruggers on balance-of-payments-primer-part-i Thanks Angry Bear
• Timothy Snyder on trump-greenland-us-morally-wrong-strategy-disastrous
• Markus Wagner on these-3-arguments-are-part-of-the-long-game-in-trumps-trade-wars
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-liberation-day-tariffs-election
• Julia Preston on in-trumps-dragnet
• Fintan O'Toole on shredding-the-postwar-order
• Brad De Long on tariffs-by-chatbot-trumps-trade-policy-as-AI-generated-farce
• Jeet Heer on trump-academic-purge
• Richard Partington on trumps-idiotic-and-flawed-tariff-calculations-stun-economists
• Niven Winchester on new-modelling-reveals-full-impact-of-trumps-liberation-day-tariffs-with-the-us-hit-hardest
• Eric Levitz on trump-tariffs-reciprocal-trade-war-why-explanation-nostalgia
• the conversable economist on thoughts-on-the-trump-tariffs
• Tyler Cowen on yours-truly-on-the-trump-tariffs-at-the-free-press
• Kruggers on trump-goes-crazy-on-trade , will-careless-stupidity-kill-the-economy

Europe

• Basil Germond on russia-has-most-to-gain-from-black-sea-ceasefire-but-its-marginal-and-ukraine-benefits-too
• Colin Flint on maritime-truce-would-end-a-sorry-war-on-the-waves-for-russia-that-set-back-its-naval-power-ambitions
• Aurelien Mondon on marine-le-pens-victim-narrative-is-already-being-constructed-but-there-are-ways-to-stop-her-criminal-conviction-benefitting-her
• Mainly Macro on last-weeks-spending-cuts-were-not-fault-of-the-OBR
• Isaac Chotiner on what-marine-le-pens-conviction-means-for-french-democracy

Asia

• Adam Simpson on thousands-are-feared-dead-in-myanmars-quake-trumps-usaid-cuts-will-cause-even-more-unnecessary-deaths
• Mark O'Neil on breaking-houthi-resolve-why-trump-s-strikes-won-t-work-any-better-biden-s
• Alvin Camba on chipping-away-controls-singapore-s-challenge-china-linked-companies
• Sanchari Ghosh on india-s-support-chagos-sovereignty-speaks-volumes
• Shijie Wang on yes-some-china-s-educated-youth-just-asserted-sovereignty-over-australia
• Manny Maung on aftermath-myanmar-s-earthquake-reports-emerge-junta-attacking-its-own-people
• Sean Turnell on might-myanmar-s-earthquake-be-catalyst-political-change
• Doris Liew on can-malaysia-s-semiconductor-industry-stream-upwards

Wonk

• the blue stocking on the-bluestocking-361-five-years-on Thanks Nick
• performative bafflement on recycling-is-fake Thanks Nick
• philosophy bear on how-to-change-the-world-a-lot-with-a-little Thanks Nick
• the conversable economist on a-view-from-the-imf-on-nuances-of-industrial-policy, the-ai-market-ecosystem ,the-ocean-related-economy
• Mark Pierce on what-matters-sense-history
• noahopinion on how-brazil-built-a-world-beating-aircraft-manufacturer
• Hussein Nadim on post-911-counterterrorism-failure
• Tyler Cowen on new-issue-of-econ-journal-watch-14

General

• Alexander Howard on the-great-gatsby-at-100-the-jazz-age-novel-that-helps-explain-trumps-america
• Laura Driessen on the-best-space-telescope-you-never-heard-of-just-shut-down
• Claudia Reyes on astronomers-listened-to-the-music-of-flickering-stars-and-discovered-an-unexpected-feature

Climate

• Tim Harford on the-selfish-guide-to-decarbonising
• Jason Chin on reliable-science-takes-time-but-the-current-system-rewards-speed
• Melanie Pill on paris-without-trump-win-planet
• David Appell on new-record-low-for-arctic-sea-ice
• ocean acidification on metabolomic-and-physiological-analyses-of-two-picochlorophytes-from-distinct-oceanic-latitudes-under-future-ocean-acidification-and-warming
• Timothy Neal on global-warming-of-more-than-3-c-this-century-may-wipe-40-off-the-worlds-economy-new-analysis-reveals
• open mind on let-the-idiocracy-begin , excess-heat-in-the-usa
• Rakesh Gupta on what-donald-trumps-dramatic-us-trade-war-means-for-global-climate-action

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-unbuilt-bench-experimental-psychology-on-the-verge-of-science
  
• the-reciprocal-betrayals-of-saul-bellow-and-paul-meehl
  
• where-sports-statistics-and-literature-meet-comparing-david-fleming-to-bill-james
  
• who-could-have-imagined-it-the-ipcc-working-group-1-folks
  
• plagiarist-usc-celebrity-doctor-whats-he-been-up-to-lately
  
• theres-no-accounting-for-taste-whodunnit-edition
  
• ai-needs-specialization-to-generalize
  
• exposing-omitted-moderators-explaining-why-effect-sizes-differ-in-the-social-sciences
  
• Freakometrics on how to predict the future
• Nham Tran on scientific-misconduct-is-on-the-rise-but-what-exactly-is-it
• Danny Kingsley on show-your-working-how-the-open-science-movement-tackles-scientific-misconduct
• statschat on bogus-polls-are-bogus-even-for-the-good-guys , tariff-co-incidence
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-45-permanence

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• trade-wars-and-fragmentation-insights-new-escb-report
  
• ais-power-grows-so-does-our-workday
  
• abolishing-daylight-saving-time-easy-setting-permanent-time-not
  
• not-all-housing-cycles-are-created-equal-macroeconomic-consequences-housing-booms
  
• living-wages-and-government-contracts
  
• trade-shocks-and-labour-market-outcomes-interplay-between-firm-exposure-and-labour
  
• sources-differences-okuns-law-between-advanced-economies-and-emerging-markets
  
• impact-rent-controls-lessons-catalonia
  
• inflation-wall-street-versus-main-street
  
• eu-supply-chain-tectonics
  
• us-reciprocal-tariffs-upending-global-trade-policy-landscape
  

Tariffs are horrible

 Trump loves tariffs. He is a mercantilist. Only economically illiterate people believe in mercantilism. It means you have either never heard of or do not understand ricardo's law of comparative advantage. We have seen this in practice. The era of trade liberalisation has seen trade grow quite strongly. In Australia we have seen this up quite close since we started to lower out high tariff wall. Australia has become a richer and stronger economy.

Let us go back to the USA. When the manufacture a car a lot of its inputs come from overseas mainly Canada and Mexico. This is because those inputs have lower cost there than in the USA. If tariffs are raised or created then import prices will rise. Imported car prices will rise but US car prices will rise as well because their costs rise as well.

What's more it won't increase employment either. .Employment in manufacturing might rise BUT there are many more jobs in the tertiary industries. Think sales, repairs, design etc. Employment will fall because less cars will produced because of the price rises.

It is the ultimate lose-lose situation!

Only a person of limited intelligence would implement such a policy. Autocrats are attracted to mercantilism. Why I will leave to others.

Whoopsy I forgot to mention that tariffs are simply an indirect tax on imports and thus are quite regressive. Yet again Trump hurts his own supporters

A really good post on gas

 David Leitch at renew ecopnomy has a very informative article on gas. It is a must read!

I am waiting on the Trump disastrous tariffs to be announced.