Wednesday, 30 April 2025

CPI and other things

 The CPI was released yesterday. the Trimmed mean figure was 2.9% at an annual rate. On a six month annualised rate it is 2.5%. 

This means the RBA can cut ( 35 points to make it easy for further 25 point cuts), I suspect The RBA may take a breather at 3.5% as this is the neutral rate and then cut later if appropriate.

Alas fiscal policy is slightly expansionary so the RBA has to be wary.

The election is on Saturday. My philosophy has always been a party gets two terms then vote them out. Thus I will vote for Jerome Laxalle ( who is a nice guy but his father is not) but wil lnot next election.

Could not help but notice that US GDP wen t backwards in the march quarter all because people bought imports biftime before the tariffs.

Tuesday, 29 April 2025

Trump's 100 days

 When Trump won the election I was pretty confident the democrats would sweep the mid-terms because of Trump's agenda.

I am very confident that prediction will come true.

Take tariffs. His plan is much worse than I or anyone else thought. Moreover it will take a lot of administration because of differential tariffs and exemptions here and there.  He has no idea of the effect of levying such high tariffs on china will do. They are both inputs to business and consumer goods for small business to sell.

He has no idea of how long it is for a company to invest and the process involved. for example to build a factory in the USA on the basis of tariffs would take 3-4 years but what happens if the democrats regain the house ( and the senate?) and take back their ability to change tariffs

Latinos are not liking what they are seeing. They assumed trump would only go after bad criminals who are undocumented immigrants. They were wrong and they do not like it.

Trump's attack on Universities will hurt the US reputation in science because when you withdraw money from Harvard in Heart disease for example it cannot be made up anywhere else. This reduces employment at Universities all across the USA. Universities will also have trouble recruiting staff from overseas given how some staff have been treated. They will also have trouble attracting the best and the brightest to study given the behaviour of the administration.

We should also never forget how incompetent most of the administration is. Signalgate is a perfect example of this.  The Justice department has become an embarrassment as it loses highly skilled staff. They wanted to stop a case because of a quid pro quo another bozo who was defending a person then became prosecutor and wanted the case to stop.

They deliberately do illegal things knowing the law takes a long time to get into gear. 

Possibly the worst thing is there are only yes men or women. There is no-one around to tell Trump when he is wrong as he is a loot of the time.

He is selling out Ukraine and allowed investors to lack confidence in both US bonds and the currency.


If you think it is bad now and it going to get worse!  Which is why I am very confident of a blue wave in the mid-terms.


Okay I missed Musk and his doge rubbish. all that happened here is they neither discovered waste nor fraud and then lied badly about it.  It was the Trump administration personified.


Monday, 28 April 2025

Welcome to country

 This will be short.

First welcome to country is NOT welcome to Australia. It is welcome to that part of australia you are in. It is highly localised. This is not hard to find out!

Second it is not part of government to say either yes or no to welcome to country in any ceremonies other than those done by government. If a private sector organisation wants or does not want to do a welcome to country it is entirely their business.


Sunday, 27 April 2025

the Federal election

 I used to be a political junkie and I loved election campaigns. not any more.

The Opposition has been poor this campaign. i have noticed it and it has been written about ad nauseum.

Why is this sso as Julius sumner Miller said when he was alive.

I thin the Opposition wanted to surf in on the resentment against the government. They were convinced the punters were out there with baseball bats. They were being told this by media VERY friendly to them. This is clearly not true.

Dutton has always been an undisciplined politician and this has caught up with him in the campaign.

Their policies are not detailed and thus people are saying different things about the same policy.

Let us just examine some examples.

Their nukes policy is so bad they do not want to talk about it. Thus it is easy for the ALP to attack it.

They are going to sack 40k public servants in Canberra. Hang on there are only 68k . the math does not add up.

They are going to cut immigration a lot But not backpackers, not tradies ( there is a world wide shortage) so how are they going to do that. No worries those former tradies who are on the pension can work and keep the pension. how many 68 year old tradies want to work again?

When you add in a very different and highly disciplined Albo then it you can see why the Opposition is in trouble.

I do hope igf the ALP win Chalmers replaces him and Andrew Charlton becomes Treasurer.

In Bennelong Jerome Laxelle the ALp member haved from over $$ in the betting markets to favourite at $170!!

Saturday, 26 April 2025

Ten Years After

 Alvin Lee was possibly the fastest guitarist I ever heard. Ten Years After gave THE performance at woodstock.

I should add fast guitar playing is like adding chilli to something you cook. Use it too often and everything appears to be blase when it isn't.

Enjoy




Thursday, 24 April 2025

Around the Traps 25/4/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

  • nuttin

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 23 April 2025

Climate change

 The ever excellent tamino does a short but educational article on global warming.

It is a statement of the obvious but a few want to deny this even as the warming increases!

Tuesday, 22 April 2025

Gambling in Australia

 A wonderfully short but concise article on gambling in australia.

I still remember the furore created by the productivity commision when they showed those businesses which had poker machines relied on problem gamblers to make money.

It would be great if Aussies realised gambling is a sin!!

Monday, 21 April 2025

Trump is mad

Sorry but I am going to ignore a person's death.

Trump has made threats of sacking the Chairman of the Fed. As you might expect Kruggers is on it.

My small contribution is simply look at what turkey tried ( Kruggers talks about it).

Trump says prices are falling not rising. This is dumb. He is either quite mad or deliberately lying about the current situation.

either way markets are very scared. My best guess is if Trump sacked Powell. He clearly does not have the law on his side but as we see they does not stop him and by the time the Courts decide it is too late.

The sharemarket would fall, bond yields would rise and the $US would also fall.

Combine that with ihs insane tariff policy and there is a very good reason to be scared

Unto us a child is born

 Handel wrote the only oratio I ever liked and Unto us a child is born was brilliant. the words are from Isaiah.

I do think this is the best version.


If I might Easter sunday proves that Jesus did pay the price for our sins. Why he was without sin and only god being man could do this!


Thursday, 17 April 2025

Around the Traps 18/4/25

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ Climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 16 April 2025

The UK Supreme Court makes a sensible decision.

 The UK Supreme Court on who is a woman. They clearly ( and unanimously) agreed on who is a woman BUT also said you could not discriminate against transgender people in general.

It is entirely sensible and should prove to be the harbinger of other courts around the world.

Isn't it wonderful to have some rationality and common sense at present?

Tuesday, 15 April 2025

The Trump administration is evil part 2

 Yesterday we saw the President of El Salvador at the white house. The man whom the Administration admit was sent to El Salvador in error wil lnot be coming back.

Trump is defying the supreme court and they will not have the spine to insist on their ruling.

No-one in the Trump administration will lift a finger to help this innocent man. They sacked the lawyer who said this!! ( An immigration ruled he was NOT a member of any gang ( he had never been to New York) and indeed was in fear of his life if he was sent back to El Salvador because of said gangs. We have seen with this administration they can bring back people to the USA if they WANT to.

As I said recently they will not do this because their actions are applauded by their maga base and it sends an example to all undocumented immigrants.

Now I tend to think all those legal immigrants who voted for Trump because he was only going after murderers and rapists are starting to realise they were wood-ducks. This was the only issue he was popular on and now this is starting to slip as more and more people start to realise the incompetence involved and it involves no due process.

I entirely agree with Noah Smith!

Monday, 14 April 2025

No self awareness

 Last week we had a 'debate' between Albo and Dutton on Sky news.

the Sky after dark pundits all said Dutton won easily however the audicience made up of undecided voters believed otherwise. ( We must state there were a lot of people who said neither).

So the Sky after dark pundits immediately said the undecided voters were not undecided at all but essentially a biased audacious favouring the ALP.

There was absolutely no evidence for their assertions. Please note a couple of things. Firstly debates rarely determine elections. Secondly who 'won' a 'debate' is merely an opinion. Thirdly Sky news paid a polling firm to have an audience of 100 undecided voters.

It never occured to the Sky after dark pundits that their view was biased because they want the LNP to win the election. It thus also never occurred to them that they not the audience got it wrong. The problem here would be losing any reputation when ti some to politics!

When you are as old as I am you have seen this before. in 1984 Hawke 'debated ' Peacock and I still remember Paul Kelly waxing lyrically on Hawke had bested Peacock. the only problem was when polls later found the complete opposite. This again found no mea culpa on Kelly's part. He , like the Sky after dark clowns, knew better than the punters.

Oh dear the times simply never change.

Sunday, 13 April 2025

Trump meets the bond market

 A very simple way to price a bond is you add what you expect inflation to be whilst you hold the bond together with a risk premium for holding it. This can be related so if you are holding a bond in a country that has relatively high inflation then the risk premium will also be higher.

I was going to wax lyrical on what occured in the US bond markets and why but Noah Smith beat me to it. 

The key point to understand here is when the stock market tanks bond prices rise and thus bond yields fall. However last week in the USA they rose. The other important point to note is when the tariffs were announced and later the $US fell. It should have risen. 

Both things occurred because of a lack of confidence in Trump and his decision making. Investors have no confidence in him thus they do not want to hold US denominated assets.

It COULD mean the beginning of the end of the $US as the world's reserve currency.

Investors know tariffs do not cause nor fix trade deficits. They also know the 'formula' to impose the tariffs was very mickey mouse. They know trade deficits do not make a country poorer.

Thursday, 10 April 2025

Around the Traps 11/4/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ Climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 9 April 2025

the Trump administration is evil

 wow you say that is a big statement.

Well no it isn't.

When they put those 238 people in the planes to go to a prison where NO-ONE is ever released they deliberately avoided any due process. Why you ask? Because the large majority of those people had committed no crimes. Yep that's right the assertions they were murderers, rapists ets were lies. As I said previously if they were said people it would be easy to prove. They would have both trial and therefore gaol records.

The 'evidence' they were members of various gangs, ( how do you devalue the word terrorist by saying gang members are terrorists) were 1) tattoos and wearing michael jordan t-shirts. any wonder they did not want any due process nor deliberately ignored a judge's ruling!

We know one was completely innocent as this has been admitted. Another is most certainly. How many gangs would have a gay hairdresser as a member?

It gets worse the government says it cannot get anyone back from El Salvador. Say What? They have a close relationship with their President. The secretary of homeland security was FILMED in from of the sent 'criminals' at the gaol.

Why was this done? 

The message it sends to its maga supporters who will always believe the government's lies and as a warning to ALL undocumented immigrants.

That is why this government is evil. There are other examples but I do not need them.

It is entirely obvious there are NO christians in this administration!

Tuesday, 8 April 2025

a bit on tariffs etc

 Here is the highly esteemed Richard Baldwin on why Trump was able to to do what he did.

Also HERE is an article on China's rise.

THIS is related as well


Been busy but three related points

  1. globalisation had to mean helping out the losers but it did not happen in the USA.
  2. Differential tariffs mean a lot of paperwork BUt the USA does not have the personnel to do this!
  3. How di do many billionaires and millioaires get Trump so wrong. He has been an avid mercantilist since the 1980s and he di not hide this during the election.

Monday, 7 April 2025

The election

 If you are watching the election with glee then you need to read:

I do have a confession to make. I was a politics junkie although I do not think I am at present. I am only glancing at election articles. I do see the polls have changed in the ALP's favour. I suspect this has to do with the coalition having no detail on any policies at present and hence people are giving different interpretations of policies. Albo is campaigning with confidence he did not have in the last election where he was ordinary.

Dutton has been poor and his confidence has been shot. Having to do not one but two backflips can only make the coalition look as though they are not ready for Government.

Trump will have a large influence on this election and this is not good for the LNP. most Aussies do not want a bar of him. However there is a group in the LNP who love him so Dutton has to step very carefully. It is not a coincidence that the trend to the ALP has coincided with Trump's lunacy.

My voting philosophy is very easy. No party should be in power for more than two terms. On this basis I shall be voting ALP this election but LNP next election if the ALP win.

I live in Bennelong and the local member ( Jerome Laxale) is excellent. The LNP candidate has been in the news for the $60k he cannot account for in the last state election when he contested Chris Minns. He has 'volunteers' everywhere and every day. I cannot imagine they would be doing it for nothing either.

Bring on May 3rd!

Sunday, 6 April 2025

The Trump tariffs

 Okay here are a few articles on this shemozzle.

It is a breath-taking example of ignorance meeting incompetence. Trump has no idea of economics and thus does not understand how tariffs are bad for the USA and what a trade war actually means. The mickey mouse calculations of other countries 'tariffs' show Trump's evidence is not evidence at all.
Take a very simple example. Coffee will cost more. The USA cannot really make coffee duh!
About 40% of total imports for the USA are inputs for business. They wil ALL go up!

Greg Mankiw was right

Saturday, 5 April 2025

Stevie Ray Vaughn

 I do like this guitarist. this is one of my favourites.

Rude Mood!


He was one of the greats


what happens to his cig?????

Thursday, 3 April 2025

Around the Traps 4/4/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ Climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk