Thursday, 2 October 2025

Around the Traps 3/10/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ Climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox wonk

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Wednesday, 1 October 2025

Jane Goodall died

 Jane Goodall dies at an age I do not wish to get to. She was an extraordinary individual.

She was a fantastic environmentalist and the only person I have heard of who got a PhD without having a degree to start with. Very impressive.

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Tuesday, 30 September 2025

Interest Rates

 The RBA announced yesterday that there would be no change to official cash rates.

Too many people are getting worked up about this.

The last monthly CPI showed an unexpected rise HOWEVER the current monthly series finishes in October. It is currently about 40% of the quarterly CPI series ( I think) and thus is erratic. We have to wait for november until we eventually get a monthly series which is exactly the same as the current quarterly series and we get history with it as well. Well done Dr Gruen ( He has a PhD in both physics and economics). I remember being part of the market requesting just this way back in the 1980s!! Up until now the RBA has not put a lot of credence in what the monthly CPI is. when it was falling bbut they are now when it could be rising. This is sensible.

In late october we get our last quarterly CPI. If this confirms inflation is not dropping perhaps even rising then rates will stay as they are. I think they will even if the CPI does not as the RBA is very risk averse.

They can sit on their hands knowing they have regular monthly CPIs in which they can have confidence in.

If you are risk averse it makes sense to do this. you do not want the economy growing too strongly and thus inflation rising again.  you wait until you are confident inflation stays in the 2-3% range.

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Monday, 29 September 2025

A tale on algorithms

 Okay it is time to not be so serious.

I iron in my house. I quite like it. One day I decided to put on youtube and I think chose the allman brothers. This led me to understanding once the song I chose was finished it went on to other songs in that genre. It was great. I simply ironed and if I did not like the song I fast forwarded it to the next one.

Some time later I discovered the rest is history. I went through WW1 and the rise of the nazis and then the rest is politics suddenly arrived. Again I liked this and then just as suddenly various podcasts centred on US politics arrived. Wow I thought so many podcasts on youtube and so little time.

Then last week suddenly there was the classic opera duet the pearlfishers. Where did that come from? Naturally I listened to it and wella a whole bunch of arias and duets from opera were there as were some classical pieces of classical music. Then Bruce Hornsby arrives with various versions on the way it is. How did it know this is one of my favourites.

Thus I can understand the workings of an algorithm on most occasions but not all the time . Can algorithms take a punt sometimes? I do not have a smartphone and will never have one. I only have my desktop computer so youtube will only be my experience with algorithms. It has been interesting

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Sunday, 28 September 2025

The Failed State of the USA

 James Comey.

 Before I start please read some of the articles on northern america in friday's Around the Traps ( 26/9/25).

Some points in no particular order.

  • I have yet to see any lawyer of repute to say this case is other than quite weak
  • One charge was not allowed by the grand Jury
  • Two were but only by a vote of 14 out of 23
  • A grand jury indicts on a low order not on beyond reasonable doubt
  • NO current career prosecutors were at the court just two political operatives
  • Bill Barr did not prosecute because of a lack of evidence. ( Yes that is how long this goes back.)
  • The Inspector General investigated this and found nothing wrong
  • The current career  prosecutors have sent a statement to the latest acting prosecutor saying there is a lack of evidence to prosecute.
  • Special counsel John Durham looked at this and he did not prosecute
  • anonymous sources in a legal sense does not mean phoning up a journalist and backgrounding them
  • Lawyers can be disbarred for  indicting someone without much of a case of finding them guilty
  • There is very little 'meat' in the indictment. Compared to what Jack Smith gave everybody in his two indictments of Trump it is startling.

All in all it looks weak and very much open to both selective and vindictive prosecution. Moreover Comey's team should go for a speedy trial which would put enormous pressure on the prosecution team which has to come up to speed on this matter. The government needs to find someone to do the case for a start.

Tom Homan

I think we can all be confident that if Homan was innocent of bribery the video would have been released ( or leaked) straight away. As it is we will never be able to view it because it obviously looks bad for Homan.

ICE

I am confused why everyone on all sides cannot see the forest for the trees in this latest shooting. ICE agents are masked , have no identification, never show any arrest warrants, use violent methods to get people, frequently are outside Immigration courts so only get low hanging fruit not murderers and rapists and have been shown to lie in an attempt to charge people.
Does no-one think all these actions will provoke violence particularly when a country is clearly heading down an autocratic path and people think the democratic way will not work.



One thing that stands out like a shag on a rock. The Supreme court has enabled all of this with the disgraceful decision on the US President being immune from prosecution. This new law which was created out of nothing showed the Supreme court is captured. Neither the  lower courts or courts of appeal appear to be. The Lisa Cook decision will confirm to my mind this completely.

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Saturday, 27 September 2025

Opera the Pearlfishers

 Gosh I love this duet even though it is sung by two men.

First an old recording but a beauty

 now a live one


Just a pity the opera was poor!

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Thursday, 25 September 2025

Around the Traps 26/9/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ Climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

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Wednesday, 24 September 2025

The Ashes

 Well the poms have picked their squad. Few surprises. I think most of their batsmen will like Australian pitches. It makes sense to have Pope as reserve WK as well.

I do think the spinners are a problem. Bashir is money for Jam out here whilst Jacks can bat his spinning is another matter however if pitches are similar to previous seasons then the spinners will not bowl much.

This brings us to pace bowlers.

Archer, Wood and Carse have all bowled above 90 mph BUT none of them have ever shown they can bowl for 5  successive tests particularly in the time period set aside for these ashes. They will cause problems for our batsmen who have shown weakness against pace bowling above 90 mph.

Both Atkinson and Tongue are unlikely to reach 90 mph. If you add in Stokes then he gets close to 90 mph but agaain does not reach 90 mph.

My guess they will start with Archer, Wood and Atkinson. This would make sense as both Archer and Atkinson bowl inswingers. Wood and Stokes bowl outswingers. It all makes sense for the first 30 0vers when a kookaburra ball swings. Stokes can bowl inspartinal long spells allowing Wood to bowl his quickest in short spells. Same goes for Atkinson although he is not inspirational.

I will only make two predictions for the first two tests. England wins in Perth but Australia win the day/nighter in Brivegas because they always do. they do play more day/nighters than any other nation!

One last observation. Harry Brook is vice captain making the heir apparent to Stokes when he retires ( after the Ashes in england???)


Whoopsy

One thing that worries me is that our bowling is an aging lineup. They have clearly lost pace and the poms will be faster than our bowlers. If they bowl like than are 25 rather than 35 they could get hit badly. They need to bowl line and length.

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Tuesday, 23 September 2025

Tom Homan

 Tom homan is trump's border czar. He is very big on arresting and then charging people who break the law.

Well the FBI has him on video accepting  $50,000 in a bag ( it must have been a large one) to 'influence the incoming Trump administration in their favour.

Naturally the incoming administration simply shut the whole operation down.

homan denies any problem.

Well release the video. We all can SEE and HEAR what occurred. however I very much doubt this will ever occur for very obvious reasons.

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Monday, 22 September 2025

yes we should recognise Palestine BUT

 Palestinians deserve to have a nation of their own. Way back in 1948 Under Doc Evatt the land was divided up into Israel and Palestine.

Israel came into existence when David Ben-Gurion astutely used murderous jewish terrorist groups to threaten palestinians so much thousands fled in fear of their lives. When they came back to their homes they found them taken over by jews. this was the Nakba. It should be emphasised these terrorist groups such as Irugun, the Stern gang etc were far more murderous than Hamas and far more successful. Indeed they became mainstream in politics so much so two of their leaders became PM of Israel.

Alas Palestine did not and in recent times Israel has gone out of ite way to ensure the west bank becomes part of Israel and now Gaza.

Thus we come to the obvious problem here everyone wants to avoid. Israel has to hand back property to palestinians. I doubt they will agree. After all if they believe they can hit any country they allege have Hamas personnel living there then they are hardly likely to agree on giving back property they have illegally possessed.

This would mean sanctions must be imposed. I very much doubt that will occur.

Israel is deliberately ignoring a large market that lies right next to them. 

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Sunday, 21 September 2025

Charlie Kirk and the orbanisation of the USA

 Charlie Kirk was not a  martyr. At this stage we have no idea of WHY He was  killed. However I have seen nowhere that a reason may have been because of his christian beliefs. I have read it could have been because Kirk was spreading hate which if true completely negates christianity as a reason.Perhaps the trila may help here.

We also do not know his  political ideology. Yes the Utah governor alleged his beliefs went to the radical left BUT he provided no evidence. He did not say it would be provided in the court case either. IF the family had become quite maga in recent years then they would be of little value in providing evidence either.

Hence the furore over Jimmy Kimmel is claptrap. If no-one knows what this killer's ideology is then why are they so upset and why was he taken off the air. Hint a threat from the FCC chair. Even if Kimmel was wrong so what it is his opinion! This is the orbanisation of the USA. He copied Putin. You threaten one organisation and they all realise what to do. They then become willing and subservient. You do not need laws nor the military. Easy peezy

By the way how come if kirk liked free speech he had a hit list of academics he wanted fired!

Another prosecutor has bitten the dust as he said he could not prosecute the NY AG for lack of evidence. Alas like Cook she said the building was a holiday home. Proving fraud is a hard gig given the paperwork and the lack of clear definitions. This obviously made it impossible. Convicted criminal Trump who has twice been convicted of falsifying business documents could not understand!! He also clearly does not understand what vindictive prosecution is. How ironic would it be if the DOJ di bring charges that James's legal team would bring in Siebert as a witness to prove vindictive prosecution.

Wow Tom Homan was caught in a sting by the FBI for bribery but Patel dropped the case. Unbelievable


Update:

It seems as this administration is attempting to make this killing something of a reichstag fire incident. Thus far no-one has brought forward any evidence that this was anything but a killing by one man. Taking this further would be hard legally but as we have seen legal action takes a lot of time even when baseless.

Time will tell.


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Saturday, 20 September 2025

the Band

 This was  one great band.

From one of my favourite live albums Rock of Ages one of my favourite Band songs. sorry cannot bring the Garth Hudson's intro




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Thursday, 18 September 2025

Around the Traps 19/9/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ Climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

vox wonk

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Wednesday, 17 September 2025

Burfday

 Exactly one week after Steve from Brisbane's birthday I had one today.

I am the same age as John quiggin but since his birthday is in April he is older than me.

Little time for anything else.


Every one have a good one

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Tuesday, 16 September 2025

Wars

 Israel is pounding Gaza city because it is a Hamas stronghold. Why it is after three years of Israel pouding Gaza has not been explained. It will be the cause of more innocent palestinians killings because at this stage one of the most sophisticated armies in the world do not know how to kill Hamas operatives from ordinary palestinians nor do they appear to care. Most people think it is genocide but Israel does not appear to care. Nor do they care they are losing international friends by the minute.

Ukraine is under massive attack from Russia. Until the Western world realises you can only get Putin to retreat by beating him on the battlefield ( which means giving Ukraine the weapons to do this) nothing will change. I am bemused by people suggesting is changing from his pro-russian policy. I will believe it when the USA is sending them weapons to beat russia.

South sudan is a disgrace. A civil war when no-one will win. It has created a famine which is so bad it is killing people day by day. No-one should be supplying anyone there any weapons at all.

It is not hard to be depressed

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Monday, 15 September 2025

The Liberals in a funk

 It isn't great being a Liberal at present.

In NSW they lost a by-election . It wasn't a big loss but a loss nevertheless. There is speculation the NSW leader will face a leadership contest.  State elections are usually centred around leaders. Chris Minns is still going well despite some missteps sso if history is any guide the ALP will win the next state election unless something spectacular occurs.

In the Federal sphere the Liberals have gone backwards since the election. This has occurred for two interrelated reasons. As you might have thought there is a lot of infighting. There is a lot of argument of why they lost so badly. It is quite apparent most people do not think the Liberals are fair dinkum on climate change. Rejecting net zero would add insult to injury. It could lead the Liberals to permant oppoition which is a very bad thing.

Another problem they have is they do not have a lot of talent so that makes it doubly hard to successfully attack the government.

These are not happy days for the Liberals

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Sunday, 14 September 2025

Charlie Kirk

 It is typical of the USA that you kill a person you disagree with and even Kirk believed deaths were something you copped if you believe people should be allowed to carry arms.

In terms of Kirk here  and here are two articles of Kirk that are realistic.

If he had stayed as a christian apologist he would have been fine BUT politics meant he had to make too many 'amendments' to his christian beliefs like supporting the 2020 election was stolen, having 7 buses bussing people to the insurrection and lately upholding the murder of 11 people on a boat without due process and thus evidence. Let us not forget his reaction to the hammer assault on Paul Pelosi. His take that Zelensky was a dictator because elections have not been held showed utter stupidity. Hard to have an election when another country is in your country and want all of it. It would also help if you knew a little bit about ukraine's constitution!

We should also not forget his support for the absolute paradox of being a christian nationalist. Supporting an ideology that boosts white people, supports prosperity gospel, even theocracy suggests to me he was influenced more by satan than God.

To me his passion for politics led him to these satanic positions without realising it. It is a very good lesson to take out of it.

Every christian should be very wary.


Whoopsy I forgot what occurred after the killing. The Utah governor was very impressive. He was everything that trump was not. Kruggers has shown political violence is a more radical right wing thing than left wing. The last FBI director that had credibility said the same thing to Congress. See also Tyler Cowen

Als the Utah governm] or has stated the alleged killer had far left views but would not detail them. That is very suspicious. Either he could detaial them or he knew he could not. the man is human and would be under a lot of political pressure.

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