I agree with Ross

 Ross Gittins has a good column out today. It deserves a read. I am getting sick of the RBA ignoring the data because it does not conform with their theories.

If it did wages would have a 4 in front of ot at the minimum not 3!

Around the Traps 21/2/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Cecelia Cmielwski on a-shameful-call-by-creative-australia-the-arts-community-reacts-to-khaled-sabsabi-being-dropped-from-the-venice-biennale
• Mercedes Page on australia-can-no-longer-assume-multilateralism-will-work-its-favour
• Naiose McDonagh on aluminium-exports-under-fire-australia-really-blame
• George Disney et al on ndis-reforms-aim-to-make-the-scheme-fairer-but-weve-found-the-groups-struggling-to-gain-access
• Ross Gittins on we-may-be-short-of-leaders-but-were-not-short-of-fasle-prophets , when-does-bipartisanship-happen , sorry-this-isnt-day-we-stop-feeling-sorry-for-ourselves , why-did-profit-hungry-banks-act-so-quickly
• Kevin Bonham on preferences-help-non-majors-beat-major-parties
• Felicity Deane on is-australias-gst-a-tax-or-a-tariff-and-why-has-it-become-a-target-in-the-trade-wars
• James Walter on the-best-of-both-worlds-how-australias-unique-democracy-evolved
• croaking cassandra on willis-and-rennie-speaking , really , the-mpc-returns-from-its-summer-holiday , orr-at-it-again
• John Hawkins on the-reserve-bank-has-cut-rates-for-the-first-time-in-four-years-but-it-is-cautious-about-future-cuts
• David Bowman and Grant Williamson on more-dry-lightning-in-tasmania-is-sparking-bushfires-challenging-fire-fighters-and-land-managers
• Martin Loosemore on heres-why-increasing-productivity-in-housing-construction-is-such-a-tricky-problem-to-solve
• Jenny Gordon on lessons-australia-s-policy-dilemmas-america-s-post-neoliberal-delusion
• Greg Jericho on the-rba-is-cutting-interest-rates-and-unemployment-is-at-historic-lows-this-is-not-supposed-to-be-happening
• Isaac Gross on official-interest-rates-have-been-cut-but-not-everyone-is-a-winner
• Liz Allen on population-panic-how-demography-is-used-for-political-gain
• Mick Ryan on political-lessons-australia-war-ukraine
• Geoffrey Brooks on with-whyalla-steelworks-forced-into-administration-australia-has-crucial-decisions-to-make-on-the-future-of-its-steel-industry
• Intafar Chowdhury on i-looked-at-35-years-of-data-to-see-how-australians-vote-heres-what-it-tells-us-about-the-next-election

OZ climate

• nsw-green-bank-to-target-batteries-pumped-hydro-and-vpps-to-fill-gaps-in-transition-from-coal
  
• miles-lower-rooftop-pv-takes-biggest-bite-yet-out-of-grid-demand-in-australias-biggest-coal-state
  
• nsw-coal-has-a-bigger-climate-impact-than-france-but-now-it-has-to-do-something-about-methane
  
• turbines-will-not-be-buried-in-sand-dunes-says-owner-of-nems-oldest-commercial-wind-farm
  
• battle-of-the-batteries-solar-soakers-provide-some-common-ground-for-australias-competing-energy-visions
  
• big-batteries-are-booming-and-finding-their-place-in-an-evolving-energy-market
  
• Adam Morton on peter-dutton-nuclear-power-soundbite-australia-election

Northern America

• institutional economics on us-treasuries-and-the-trump-administration
• mimi rocah on trump-doj-danielle-sassoon-sdny-eric-adams
• persuasion on a-new-threat-to-the-freedom-of-the-press Thanks Nick
• the good science project on indirect-costs-at-nih Thanks Nick
• Hassan Vally on in-robert-f-kennedy-jr-the-us-has-put-a-conspiracy-theorist-in-charge-of-public-health
• noahopinion on trumps-economy-is-already-in-trouble , one-big-thing-the-legacy-media-gets-wrong
• Abdallah Fayyad on usaid-cuts-medicaid-medicare-welfare-social-safety-net
• Tyler Cowen on reforming-the-nih , might-we-end-up-with-a-modest-staflation
• Eric Schliesser on elite education and the rise of maga
• the conversable economist on costs-of-pennies-and-nickels , re-interpreting-us-law-for-environmental-permitting
• John Blaxland on trumps-view-of-the-world-is-becoming-clear-americas-interests-matter-more-than-any-set-of-rules
• Chee Meng Tan on trumps-quiet-change-to-us-position-on-taiwan-is-all-about-the-economy
• Andre Prokop on elon-musk-doge-head-senior-adviser-judge-chutkan
• Laurence Norden and Derek Tisler on trump-doge-layoffs-project-2025-election-security-cisa-firing
• Anthony Fisher on free-speech-supreme-court-sullivan-v-new-york-times-wynn
• Doug Muir on notes-from-a-usaid-career
• Nick Bisley on wolf-warrior-diplomacy-maga-characteristics
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-hampton-dellinger-unitary-executive
• Fred Kaplan on russia-ukraine-donald-trump-vladimir-putin
• David Frum on state-department-ukraine
• Jonathan Lemire on senate-republicans-trump-ukraine
• Fintan O'Toole on from-comedy-to-brutality
• Lester Munson on what-s-next-usaid
• Rachel Cohen on abortion-maggie-carpenter-mifepristone-medication-texas-new-york-rfk-louisiana-paxton
• Brendan Ballou on ed-martin-musk-trump-revenge-prosecutions-fail
• Frank Bowman on king-donald-trump-terrifying-executive-order
• Tom Corben on america-agrees-peace-through-strength-just-not-what-it-costs

Europe

• Ben Noble on one-year-on-from-alexei-navalnys-death-what-is-his-legacy-for-russia
• Menzie Chinn on the-russian-economy-how-many-contingent-liabilities
• noahopinion on its-time-for-europe-to-stand-up
• Andi Hoxhaj on serbia-is-facing-its-largest-ever-protest-movement-why-is-europe-looking-away
• Marcus Colla on miseries-germany-s-navel-gazing
• Tyler Cowen on italys-superbonus-the-dumbest-fiscal-policy-in-recent-memory , germany-facts-of-the-day
• the conversable economist on europes-internal-trade-barriers-a-long-way-from-a-single-market
• Chris Bertram on the-uk-governments-bar-to-citizenship-for-refugees
• Ian Hill on will-shock-therapy-spur-new-realpolitik-europe

Asia

• Alice Evans on why-are-chinese-marriages-plummeting Thanks Nick
• Andrew Evans on what-was-the-sykes-picot-agreement-and-why-does-it-still-affect-the-middle-east-today
• Rintaro Nishimura on japan-s-us-china-headache
• Raaham Yacob on singapore-spin-under-trump

Wonk

• contraptions on principles-for-the-permaweird Thanks Nick
• Jenny Gordon on latest-round-tariffs-threats-might-be-least-our-worries
• Tim Harford on want-to-change-consider-your-situation
• Tyler Cowen on how-should-government-disclosure-be-done
• Menzie Chinn on a-trade-war-interpreted-in-a-blanchard-is-lm-model , anthony-diercks-daniel-soques-and-jing-cynthia-wu-perfect-recession-indicators
• Patricia Schouker on real-crisis-lies-within-west-itself
• Mainly Macro on is-trump-populist-or-fascist
• Matt Fitzpatrick on ukraine-isnt-invited-to-its-own-peace-talks-history-is-full-of-such-examples-and-the-results-are-devastating
• noahopinion on japan-south-korea-and-poland-need-nuclear-weapons-immediately
• Evan Freudin on quantum-game-changer
• Anne Applebaum on trump-ukraine-postwar-world
• Sussan Glasser on trumps-putinization-of-america

General

• Sonia Grover on whats-the-difference-between-period-pain-and-endometriosis-pain

Climate

• Andrew King and Liam Cassidy on earth-is-already-shooting-through-the-1-5-c-global-warming-limit-two-major-studies-show
• skeptical science on fact-brief-is-the-sealevel-rise-exaggerated , renewables-dont-need-expensive-backup-today
• and Then Theres Physics on advocacy-by-scientists

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• conflicts-of-interest-in-vaping-studies-yes-researchers-will-risk-their-professional-reputations-out-of-some-combination-of-political-motivations-irritation-and-money
  
• a-github-utility-to-discover-retracted-articles-in-your-bib
  
• when-do-stories-seem-real
  
• clive-james-on-charade-what-to-think-when-someone-you-admire-has-different-tastes-than-you
  
• what-are-the-grand-challenges-in-bayesian-computation
  
• perfectly-stable-climates-and-other-statistical-myths
  
• approaching-the-singularity-not-in-a-good-way
  
• statschat on briefly , low-flying-rocks

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Andrew Gelman on i-love-reading-old-book-reviews

Vox Wonk

• commodity-prices-business-cycle-and-inflation-international-evidence-1851-1913
  
• europes-challenge-and-opportunity-building-coalitions-willing
  
• us-export-controls-and-restructuring-global-value-chains-analysis-japanese
  
• bazooka-diplomacy-trumps-tariffs
  
• gender-and-task-rewards-exams-implications-performance-and-labour-outcomes
  
• prolific-phd-advisors-are-no-guarantee-graduate-student-research-success
  
• robust-fiscal-stabilisation
  
• new-data-old-debates-us-government-funded-rd-and-patent-policy
  
• it-matters-even-more-central-bank-independence-long-run-inflation-and-persistence
  
• home-sweet-home-value-remote-work
  
• home-bias-and-chinas-global-standing-science
  
• leveraging-large-language-models-large-scale-information-retrieval-economics
  
• effects-progressive-tax-reform
  
• case-management-managing-ownership
  

Trump is mad

 What sort of person would blame Ukraine for russia invading the country. The same person who claims Ukraine should have an election when it is at war. Guess how many European nations held elections when they were at war. 

That person is an idiot

I should add only a moron would believe that enlargement of NATO 'forced' Russia to invade Ukraine. NATO like most military treaties is a defensive treaty. It cannot be invoked if a member invades another countries. It can ONLY be invoked if they are attacked.

What sort of person would indulge a billionaire to pursue indiscriminate sacking in the public service .Two points

1.  This policy clearly failed at twitter where cutting costs hit revenues
2. Indiscriminate sackings simply mean there is no rhyme nor reason involved.We have seen this in USAID, Nuclear Safety and now birdflu

This will clearly fail

If you really wanted to cut costs and root out fraud you would bolter the Inspectors General. Instead Trump fired a lot of them.  Engineers are not skilled at this. forensic accountants are.

Then we had another example of a corrupt DOJ where a highly experienced prosecutor resigned rather than begin gran jury proceedings because they had NO evidence.

The only thing worse than an idiot is one who projects and has authoritarian tendencies.

Be worried, be very worried

The RBA cuts rates

 I cannot still believe the RBA is worried about a 'tight' labour market. They claim to be data driven but seem to ignore wages data! the 2020s is vastly different to the 1970s even 1980s! TOLD YA

Inflation is a lagging indicator. It is now falling more than the RBA thought because of the slowing economy. It will continue to fall. If the RBA is data driven and most forecasts are on the money then another rate cut is on the cards depending on Trump and his mad economic program. They could just drop 10 points and wait to see what else occurs out of Trump's mouth and wait.

Let me speculate on politics. I think Albo will go in May. A softerning labour market and falling inflation should all mean everyone will be expecting a cut after the election and this will be as important as an actual cut in rates.

If the ALP cannot tell the story of a goldilocks economy following high inflation then they deserve to lose!

fiscal stability in the USA

 A short but very interesting article on fiscal stability in the USA.

The only way is up under Trump.Whatever happened to those 'fiscal haks' in the republican party.

Amazing Trump incompetence

 wow so many examples.

Hegseth makes a speech and then has to backtrack ONE day later. competence matters

Vance makes a speech riddles with errors ( I suspect deliberately), meets with neo-nazies in Germany and warnes about democracy in Europe. All this from the bloke who cannot say Biden easily won in 2020! Competence matters

A former Trump defence lawyer who was given a plumb job on the DOJ writes a letter that sure looks like a quid pro quo! This unleashes mass resignations particularly from conservative lawyers. Competence matters

Musk acolytes sack people who are nuclear safety staff.  they then have to try and reinstate them Whoopsy. Competence matters

Trump's poorly written executive orders lead to many court cases.They could lose a lot leading to call to impeach the judges. Competence matters

Notice a pattern here.

Oh can someone tell Trump NATO is a defensive treaty. It can only be enacted if a country is attacked. It is null and void if a country attacks another country so it is impossible for Purin to feel Russia was almost under attack from NATO if Ukraine was to join ( which Germany said it would vote against.).

Around the Traps 14/2/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Paddy Gourley on forgetting-robodebt Thanks Nick
• Brendan Coates et al on most-retirees-who-rent-live-in-poverty-heres-how-boosting-rent-assistance-could-help-lift-them-out-of-it
• John Quiggin on trump-has-thrown-out-the-global-economic-playbook-its-time-for-australia-to-write-its-own-rules
• Ross Gittins on economists-find-social-media-harms-mental-health , everyone-hates-government-spending-until-someone-tries-to-cut-it , the-nation-is-finally-coming-to-grips-with-housing-affordability , maths-or-no-maths-ross-gittins-and-richard-holden-have-it-wrong
• Greg Jericho on trumps-latest-tariff-bid-shows-the-old-rules-of-trade-no-longer-apply-scraps-of-paper-will-not-save-us
• Scott French on whether-we-carve-out-an-exemption-or-not-trumps-latest-tariffs-will-still-hit-australia
• Hussein Dia and Hadi Ghaderi on jim-chalmers-wants-to-fix-australias-broken-road-tax-system-heres-what-one-solution-might-look-like
• Cameron Allen John Thwaites on a-new-report-card-shows-inequality-in-australia-isnt-as-bad-as-in-the-us-but-were-headed-in-the-wrong-direction
• Pandanus Peter and Ian McAllister on do-parties-win-elections-because-of-their-leaders-or-in-spite-of-them-history-shows-its-a-bit-of-both
• Frank Bongiorno on splits-fusions-and-evolutions-how-australias-political-parties-took-hold
• Roland Rajah and  Grace Stanhope on how-australia-should-respond-implosion-us-aid
• Kevin Bonham on how-might-minor-right-parties-win-more-seats
• Mark the Ballot on betting-and-polling-update-mid-february

OZ climate

• another-two-giga-scale-battery-storage-projects-take-shape-adding-more-shock-absorbers-to-the-grid
  
• hearing-on-contested-solar-farm-next-to-old-coal-mine-moves-online-due-to-low-number-of-speakers
  
• australias-oldest-commercial-wind-farm-to-close-as-cost-of-repowering-is-too-high
  
• aemo-reports-surge-in-grid-registrations-for-wind-solar-and-battery-projects
  
• surge-in-solar-wind-and-battery-investment-sets-pace-for-82-pct-target-can-australia-keep-it-up
  
• agl-targets-1-4-gw-of-new-big-batteries-to-firm-renewables-and-cash-in-on-price-volatility
  
• nsw-strikes-land-deal-for-massive-new-wind-and-battery-storage-project-in-south-west
  

Northern America

• Kruggers on oppose-oppose-oppose-and-do-it-loudly Thanks Nick
• Andrew Sullivan on keep-calm-carry-on-and-wait Thanks Nick
• The honest Broker on the-state-of-the-culture-2024 Thanks Nick
• Robert Orr on north-carolina-supreme-court-gop-election-strategy
• the conversable economist on what-share-of-federal-spending-is-borrowed , dangers-of-rising-federal-debt
• Brad De Long on time-to-revisit-how-does-this-assessment-look-14 months-later
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-too-weak
• Fred Kaplan on trump-news-doj-foreign-agents-russia-china-iran
• noahopinion on what-i-think-doge-is-really-up-to , anti-anti-neoliberalism-is-also-not-enough
• Robert Waldmann  on musk-usaid-and-a-crazy-conspiracy-theory
• Joyce Vance on jd-vance-tweet-judges-trump-supreme-court
• Thomas Gift and Michael Plouffe on the-us-tried-high-tariffs-and-america-first-policies-in-the-1930s-trump-should-note-what-happened-next
• Andrew Prokop on trump-defy-court-rulings-constitutional-crisis-vance
• Lisa Rubin on can-trump-fire-federal-officials-osc-musk
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03-in-january
• Dylan Scott on trump-cdc-health-data-removed-obesity-suicide
• David Scott on the-unhinged-presidency-trump
• Bill Haskell on the-trump-swamp-is-growing
• Jason Furman on post-neoliberal-delusion Thanks Tyler
• Tyler Cowen on the-danger-of-trump-disobeying-court-orders
• Jeet Heer on elon-musk-spending-data-coup , musk-resistance-democrats-billionaire-donors
• Alex Tabarrok on steel-tariffs-in-two-pictures
• Menzie Chinn on douglas-irwin-in-wsj-on-reciprocal-tariffs
• Dahlia Lithwick on eric-adams-charges-dispute-doj-sdny-resignations
• Umair Irfan on record-heat-january-2025-la-nina-winter-cold-climate

Europe

• noahopinion on whats-going-to-happen-to-ukraine-now
• Catherine Wilson on hungary-s-viktor-orban-faces-challenge-his-illiberal-democracy
• Mainly Macro on quantifying-continuing-uk-public-spending-squeeze
• Fred Kaplan on trump-putin-ukraine-russia-news-call

Asia

• Unherd on chinas-stem-army-is-coming Thanks Nick
• Maha Nassar on palestinians-have-long-resisted-resettlement-trumps-plan-to-clean-out-gaza-wont-change-that
• Anniello Iannone on escaping-asean-paralysis-myanmar
• David Livingstone on two-faces-syria-s-interim-government
• Ved Shinde on british-bombay-businesses-indian-foreign-policy
• John Culver on china-taiwan-pla-s-2027-milestones
• Muhammad al Zaqzouq on days-and-nights-in-gaza
• Mosab abu Toha on gaza-must-be-rebuilt-by-palestinians-for-palestinians
• Adnan Amir on flight-nowhere-curious-new-gwadar-international-airport

Wonk

• Garrit Van Dyk on america-first-trade-policy-is-pushing-economic-self-sufficiency-but-history-shows-this-is-harder-than-it-seems
• Eric Storm on how-putin-xi-and-now-trump-are-ushering-in-a-new-imperial-age
• Stephen Grenville on dominant-dollar
• Tim Harford on do-you-want-the-good-feedback-or-the-bad-feedback
• stumbling and mumbling on using-misusing-markets
• institutional economics on i-didnt-expect-leopards-to-eat-my-portfolio
• Tyler Cowen on minimum-wages-efficiency-and-welfare
• Brennain Simpson et al on where-should-we-look-for-new-metals-that-are-critical-for-green-energy-technology-volcanoes-may-point-the-way
• Mareike Reidel on antisemitism-goes-beyond-overt-acts-of-hate-subtle-forms-of-bias-take-their-toll-too
• Michael Jensen on hate-speech-on-x-surged-for-at-least-8-months-after-elon-musk-takeover-new-research
• Lee Morgenbesser on is-elon-musk-taking-over-the-us-government-heres-how-state-capture-works-and-why-we-should-be-concerned
• Alexandra Finch on what-us-withdrawal-who-will-mean-global-health
• Richard Yetsenga on population-decline-future-shock-no-more
• sandwichman on hot-off-press-and-cut-and-fold-and-glue
• Thomas Gift and Michael Plouffe on the-us-tried-high-tariffs-and-america-first-policies-in-the-1930s-trump-should-note-what-happened-next
• Abijnan Rej on fear-loathing-dhaka-dc
• the conversable economist on winter-2025-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-available-online , a-meditation-an-academic-journal-goes-paperless

General

• Jenny Allen on whalesong-patterns-follow-a-universal-law-of-human-language-new-research-finds

Climate

• Andrew King and Liam Cassidy on earth-is-already-shooting-through-the-1-5-c-global-warming-limit-two-major-studies-show
• skeptical science on ClimateAdam-is-it-game-over-for-the-1point5-degree-climate-limit , sabin33-15-does-em-radiation-from-wind-turbines-pose-a-threat-to-human-health

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• if-there-really-is-more-fraud-being-done-by-prominent-scientists-than-there-was-in-the-past-why-heres-a-theory
  
• why-are-places-like-stanford-and-johns-hopkins-hosting-gatherings-of-well-known-coronavirus-cranks
  
• what-is-the-correct-value-of-x-in-the-sentence-the-t-test-is-the-xth-most-important-statistical-method-in-science
  
• when-is-60-the-new-40
  
• posterior-sbc-simulation-based-calibration-checking-conditional-on-data
  
• research-with-the-reluctant-challenges-and-strategies
  
• and-if-he-does-research-on-potassium-you-can-bet-hell-strike-out-in-the-labs-softball-game
  
• flatiron-wide-autumn-meeting-talks-are-now-online
  
• better-priors-for-ar-arx-ltx-dr-ma-arma-and-var-models
  
• maybe-they-should-just-write-some-papers-about-their-priors-and-not-mess-around-with-actual-data
  
• freakometrics on mitigating discrimination in insurance
• Kaiser Fung on from-elevator-music-to-causal-thinking , the-player-who-scored-on-his-or-her-birthday
• Eran Raviv on nonstandard-errors

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews

• social-machines
  

Vox Wonk

• implications-severe-weather-events-economy-and-monetary-policy
  
• child-penalties-and-parental-role-models-how-classroom-exposure-shapes-gender-gaps
  
• impact-superbonus-italian-construction-costs
  
• good-managers-better-matches-job-allocation-effects-worker-productivity
  
• gaining-efficiencies-financing-european-public-goods-together
  
• climbing-ivory-tower-socioeconomic-representation-academia
  
• innovation-economic-resilience-strengthening-ukraines-human-capital-and-science
  
• school-resources-parental-involvement-and-student-effort
  
• chaos-theory-assessing-legal-validity-trumps-tariffs
  
• corporate-climate-commitments-profit-driven-strategy-not-just-empty-promises
  
• global-value-chains-world-uncertainty-and-automation
  
• why-unilateral-decarbonisation-can-pay-itself
  
• poverty-during-pandemic-and-role-government-transfers
  

The Bankstown Hospital disgrace

 Yesterday we had two nurses who work at Bankstown hospital say they would not assist if a jew came into their hospital and even kill them.

I hope there is no need to say this was disgraceful more so at present  however I think far too many people are getting ahead of themselves.

They must have known this would go public so what were they thinking of?

In one sense it is nonsensical. No jews would turn up at Bankstown hospital as a patient!

Lastly I am sure I am not the only person who has been in a public hospital. A Nurse who would not attend to any patient would be instantly dismissed. Attempting harm to a patient would be very hard. They would been to be on the roster and ensure other patients could not see what they are doing and remember any problems would show up very fast in terms of their equipment!

These two people will be charged and then find it hard to get a job now.  That is a punishment fitting their crime

Racism

 In view of Sam kerr's court case I thought it would be useful to explore what exactly is racism.

to my mind it is when a person says in some way a certain derogatory term is given to a person because of their skin colour. 

Thus asserting people are stupid or smelly because of their skin colour is racist.

On the other hand asserting someone is a black bastard is not because you are not saying they are a bustard because they are black. you are merely saying they are a bastard who happens to be black.

the Sydney derby was a cracker

 On saturday night I went to the Sydney derby with my two sons.

The game was an absolute cracker. the atomsp[here was fantastic, plenty of controversy, some great goals, almost some more goals, some good refereeing some bad refereeing. Can anyone complain when 6 goels are sccored?

It was easily the best A-League game I have seen. there were 32,000 there and those that did not go would have been disappointed.

The A-League  will be on a high if this continues. I am certainly going to the nest Wanderers game

Elon Musk is not that smart!

 People have been in awe of Elon Musk for some time. Tesla is very successful just for one example although I thin k it is vastly overpriced!

However he has seen seen differently since he failed at twitter. this showed two things. Hc does nor value corporate knowledge since he knows better. He has no idea of how to cut costs. at twitter he found out he did not not know better than previous experienced employees and found his cost cutting hit revenues quite hard. Twitter his billions twitter would be heading towards receivership!

His attack on USAID can be seen that of a very ignorant man. He heard from a nutcase of joe rogan that criminal activity was going on. He accepted that fully without doing any fact checking at all. Thus we now get a lot of allegations but of course NO evidence! He relies on twitter for information which is usually highly unreliable thus he perpetrates lies most of the time and worse lies that are not hard to discern. He is simply another conspiracy theorist.

He wants to completely gut an organisation that is the epitome of soft power.  the organisation is made up of highly skilled operatives. They are very hard to replace and even when you do it takes years to have the knowledge and understanding on how to do the job properly. This can apply to the CIA, FBI. Justice Department etc.

The other thing is when you offer financial incentives for employees to depart then guess who accepts. People who can easily get a job elsewhere. Thus you lose the very people you want to keep and keep the people you wanted to lose.   Fantastic policy!

Musk is not smart and spread lies a lot !

Around the Traps 7/2/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on think-measurement-of-inflations-bit-off-it-probably-is , want-more-economics-students
• Kate Griffiths and Jessica Geragty on political-donations-data-show-whos-funding-whom-in-australia-but-they-are-coming-out-far-too-late
• Gary Mortimer and Cassandra Cross on mastercard-plans-to-get-rid-of-credit-card-numbers-we-could-be-heading-towards-the-end-of-cards
• Andrew Podger on peter-dutton-is-promising-to-slash-the-public-service-voters-wont-know-how-many-jobs-are-lost-until-after-the-election
• Sam Roggeveen on why-australia-trump-s-treatment-canada-so-troubling
• croaking cassandra on going-for-growth-perhaps
• Greg Jericho on labor-has-managed-to-tame-inflation-in-an-election-year-but-is-anybody-listening
• Lorana Bartels and Rick Sarre on mandatory-minimum-sentencing-is-proven-to-be-bad-policy-it-wont-stop-hate-crimes
• Jenny Gordan on australia-tariff-firing-line

OZ climate

• customers-will-take-as-much-wind-and-solar-as-they-can-because-they-are-the-cheapest-says-brookfield
  
• another-three-big-wind-and-battery-projects-sucked-into-epbc-process
  
• lnps-knee-jerk-change-means-sunshine-state-effectivelyclosed-for-business-for-wind-and-solar
  
• victoria-wind-farm-shut-down-after-turbine-collapse
  
• trumps-drill-baby-drill-plan-is-a-disaster-for-energy-security-and-prices
  
• huge-solar-and-battery-project-to-help-propel-south-australia-towards-100-pct-net-renewables-and-beyond
  
• golden-age-of-gas-did-not-pay-off-for-australian-consumers-new-report-finds
• rio-tinto-turns-to-big-batteries-to-underpin-green-smelters-as-firmed-renewables-eclipse-gas-and-coal
  
• Steve Turton on delayed-monsoon-and-a-stalled-tropical-low-whats-behind-north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods
• Graham Readfearn on no-idea-what-hes-talking-about-duttons-nuclear-plan-could-raise-not-cut-electricity-bills-experts-warn , nuclear-power-liberal-coalition-energy-power-plan-details
• Adam Morton on australian-nature-if-our-laws-dont-radically-change-environmental-degradation-will-continue
• Peter Burnett and Euan Ritchie on labors-dumping-of-australias-new-nature-laws-means-the-environment-is-shaping-as-a-key-2025-election-issue
• Vivienne Reiner on yes-energy-prices-are-hurting-the-food-sector-but-burning-more-fossil-fuels-is-not-the-answer
• Moninya Roughan on its-official-australias-ocean-surface-was-the-hottest-on-record-in-2024

Northern America

• Kruggers on departing-the-new-york-times Thanks Nick , what-the-musk-is-happening Thanks Angry Bear
• the unpopulist on biden-fixed-the-immigration-system Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on the-price-elasticity-of-avocado-supply-demand-and-tariff-pass-through, the-effective-rate-of-protection-when-inputs-are-imported
• Dylan Mathews on usaid-omb-purge-government-agency-spending-leave
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-brett-kavanaugh-trump-spending-freeze-impoundment , supreme-court-unitary-executive-donald-trump
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on dc-plane-crash-elon-musk-faa-firings
• Tyler Cowen on u-s-infrastructure-1929-2023, the-new-tariffs-are-bad , sundry-observations-on-the-trump-tariffs
• Abdallah Fayyad on cutting-childhood-poverty-us-adulthood
• noahopinion on trump-starts-to-break-things , the-chaos-has-arrived
• Roland Rajah on trump-s-second-trade-war-risks-unwinding-benefit-his-first
• Andrew Prokop on trump-musk-opm-usaid-doj-fbi-purge , elon-musk-doge-illegal-lawbreaking-analysis
• Eric Kramer on biden-was-a-complacent-and-ineffectual-president
• Eric Schliesser on corruption tariffs and US renewal
• Jenny Gordon on trump-tariffs-madness-method-or-mayhem
• Fred Kaplan on trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-trade-war
• the conversable economist on oecd-survey-of-adult-skills-where-the-us-stands , warnings-about-air-traffic-safety-two-months-before-the-crash-over-the-potomac
• Melissa Tyler on in-freezing-foreign-aid-the-us-leaves-people-to-die-and-allows-china-to-come-to-the-rescue
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-musk-power-grab-hungary-orban
• Scott Pilutik on federal-workers-sue-opm-elon-musk-takeover
• David Frum on trump-tariffs-mexico-canada
• David Remnick on the-madness-of-donald-trump
• Austin Sarat on donald-trump-pam-bondi-attorney-general-justice-department-weaponization-dei
• open mind on trumps-epa-environmental-pollution-agency
• Hannah Rosin on trump-musk-usaid-fbi
• Sussan Glasser on elon-musks-revolutionary-terror

Europe

• Matt Fitzpatrick on the-far-right-is-rising-at-a-crucial-time-in-germany-boosted-by-elon-musk
• Mainly Macro on a-government-of-small-change
• Nikola Mikovic on west-s-stabiliser-russia-s-friend-china-s-partner-serbia-s-patience-its-leader

Asia

• Saqlain Rizve on revival-bangladesh-pakistan-ties
• Amin Saikal on with-the-gaza-ceasefire-in-the-balance-all-eyes-are-on-benjamin-netanyahus-trip-to-washington
• Lisa Singh and Tushar Joshi on deadly-consequences-disinformation-pacific
• Ciara Morris on hong-kong-one-country-two-systems-breaking-down-not-yet-dead
• Tamer Morris on trump-wants-the-us-to-take-over-gaza-and-relocate-the-people-is-this-legal
• Richard Heydarian on trump-s-grand-bargain-philippines-caught-between-us-china
• Neeraj Manhas on china-s-medog-county-mega-dam-bad-news-india-bangladesh
• Yair Rosenberg on trump-gaza-takeover

Wonk

• institutional economics on the-gop-is-as-big-a-threat-to-global-free-trade-as-theCCP
• Chrystal Zhang on planes-have-high-tech-systems-to-stop-midair-crashes-so-what-went-wrong-in-washington
• Kevin Norton on speed-thrills-why-are-so-many-sports-getting-faster
• Roland Raja and Ahmed Albayrak on china-versus-america-global-trade
• Sheridan Ward on practical-effect-constitutional-ban-war
• Tim Harford on the-truth-about-the-forecasting-paradox
• John Quiggin on the-dispensable-nation
• stumbling and mumbling on capitalism-vs-democracy
• the conversable economist on why-does-february-usually-have-28-days
• Markus Wagner on trumps-25-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico-amp-up-the-risk-of-a-broader-trade-war
• Daniele D'Alva on deepseek-nvidia-and-the-ai-race-thats-shaping-the-future
• Chris James on supersonic-jets-are-making-a-comeback-but-despite-the-hype-dont-expect-to-book-yet
• Anubhavs Goswami on trump-global-nuclear-order
• Mia Hammond-Errey on deepseek-diplomacy-disruption-dominance-data
• Alex Tabarrok on the-new-consensus-on-the-minimum-wage , three-simple-principles-of-trade-policy
• Christopher de Bellaigue on brazil-the-threat-from-the-right-christopher-de-bellaigue
• Jerome Tubiana on darfur-a-war-within-a-war
• Eric Kramer on hayek-on-the-use-of-knowledge-in-society
• David Morris on old-theories-don-t-fit-new-world-order
• noahopinion on when-are-tariffs-good

General

• Jonti Horner on astronomers-have-spied-an-asteroid-that-may-be-heading-for-earth-heres-what-we-know-so-far

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-species , january-unexpected-temp-record
• open mind on trumps-epa-environmental-pollution-agency
• Ajit Niranjan on temperatures-at-north-pole-20c-above-average-and-beyond-ice-melting-point
• Hussein Dia on electric-vehicle-batteries-can-last-almost-40-longer-in-the-real-world-than-in-lab-tests
• moyhu on january-global-surface-templs-up-0073

Andrew Gelman  ( mainly stats)

• ai-can-solve-math-olympiad-problems-but-flunks-tic-tac-toe
  
• graphical-display-of-election-forecast-uncertainty
  
• beat-the-bot-in-this-years-cherry-blossom-prediction-competition
  
• anti-vax-attitudes-and-political-ideology
  
• bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid
  
• not-just-empirically-but-scientifically
  
• generalized-linear-neural-network-models
  
• he-she-they-using-sex-and-gender-in-survey-adjustment
  
• florida-man-eats-diet-of-butter-cheese-beef-cholesterol-oozes-from-his-body
  
• Freakometrics on KNN and K Means
• Kaiser Fung on lessons-from-the-tiktok-saga

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-political-economy-of-horses-for-courses
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• role-personality-traits-shaping-economic-returns-amid-technological-change
  
• technology-spillovers-diffusion-and-rivalry-firm-networks
  
• balancing-ocean-health-and-economic-growth-role-sustainability-metrics-eu
  
• why-2024-us-election-and-so-many-others-were-so-hard-predict
  
• weather-related-losses-firms-fixed-asset-management-and-role-government-support
  
• international-graduate-students-and-us-startup-creation
  
• role-journal-editors-and-gender-diversity-academic-disciplines
  
• international-graduate-students-and-us-startup-creation
  
• climate-minsky-moments-why-they-may-matter-less-expected
  
• creating-greener-ocean-economy
  
• artificial-intelligence-and-stability
  

Trump gets even more stupid

 what can anyone say about what Trump said about Gaza?

It is clearly ethnic cleansing. duh! 

It is clearly illegal. Se HERE and HERE.

Any country in the Middle East or thereabouts would be committing political suicide if they supported it. Whether people vote or not!

It is completely mad and stupid.

If enacted it would mean no two state solution and Israel being the ONLY country in the area.

Why has he proposed this?  Perhaps he does see this as visionary and not stupid as everybody else does. It would show up his fast declining mental faculties if this was the case.

It might also be something to hide his decimation of the US public service.

A bit on Trump

 I really do not know why people are surprised. ( See noah smith)  In hiss first term he is incompetent mainly because of the chaos that occurred. It is deja vu all o ver again.

Trump does illegal things. He has fired 19 inspector generals. He cannot. He has sacked career bureaucrats. He cannot. Remember Andrew McCabe or Peter Struk? He sacked both  so they would not get pension benefits. guess what. They took legal action and won.

He wants to cut spending or even redirect it. He cannot. all he can do is either sign a bill from congress or veto it.

Even worse he wanted to inflict a trade war until the sharemarket showed him what would occur and he blinked. He wants to sack any FBI agent involved in prosecuting Jan 7 events. That would endanger US national security.

His authoritarian tendencies are coming to the fore

what is worse these days there a very few adults in the room. Get worried, very worried

I should add like most wannabe dictators Trump looks to perceived internal enemies and not the much more important  actual external enemies.  Opportunity cost tells us organisations such as the FBI can either examine actual crimes or waste time on going after political enemies.

Clearly people such as trump and more importantly Musk have no idea of the importance of soft power.

Kruggers also offers some insight.

Misinformation and disinformation

 Last week saw the release of AEMO regulars quarterly release. It showed in the last quarter wholesale prices FELL in Victoria and SA where renewables rule but rose quite a bit in NSW and Queensland.

That very day I heard on the news on commercial radio from the Opposition's spokesman that this meant renewables caused pice rises. That night on Sky after dark I heard some boz from the IPA assert renewables always mean price rises and only coalfired electricity could bring prices down! It reminded me the last time Melbourne had a blackout when three units of a coal fired power station had broken down yet the black out was the renewables fault.

In all theses case the people are arguing black is white. In other words it is the opposite of what has occured. 

The major problem is if people  believe these lies we wi head down a path that leads to both blackouts and higher prices. It does remind me of the old 1950s style commies. Never mind the facts it is ideology that counts.

Err Brookfield knows what is going on. I hope they are right

I should have added if commercial radio cannot even eread an AEMO press release then perhaps they should interview anyone on the subject. It does highlight problems of the lack of journos in the commercial media now.  The IPA apparently believes in private enterprise. They might cogitate on why no-one wants to build a coal fired power station in Australia. They would if it was the cheapest form of electricity!

Anti-semitism It gets curious and curiouser

 In no order of importance a few things to think about.

Albo

Albo has consistently criticized any anti-semitism in Australia.  Both he and Minns criticised the latest alleged incident. Minns was lauded whilst Albo was criticised. Huh. The only difference was Minns swore!  So if you don't swear you are timid???

AFP

THe AFP are wondering aloud where foreign money is directing most of these incidents. Hang on. If this was the case then the reason for the incidents was not anti semitism but simply good old fashioned criminality. and why is foreign money coming in. Lydia Khalil could be on the money.

Caravan

A caravan was found with explosives that could be used to blow up anything. It also had documents involving synagogues in sydney.  Just a minute the explosives found were so old they are no longer used in coal mines. There were NO detonators. The Caravan was parked illegally for over a week and then was taken in a by person who then looked in it. He then contacted the police

Sure don't sound like any attempted terrorist attempt to me. It sounds like sheer incompetence.

Around the Traps 31/12/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on should-we-really-go-forth-and-multiply , why-wed-be-mugs-to-focus-on-cost-of-living-at-the-election
• Mark the Ballot on code-clean-up-bayesian-aggregation-models
• Kevin Bonham on going-distance-federal-seats-that-do-and-do-not-make-it-to-the-final-two-seats ,  poll-roundup-long-slow-slide-continues
• Antony Green on wa2025-my-guide-to-the-2025-election-has-been-published
• Peter Breadon and Wendy Hu on too-many-australians-miss-out-on-essential-medical-care-every-year-heres-how-to-fix-gp-deserts
• Mark the Graph on the-state-of-australian-economy
• Peter Layton on revitalising-australia-s-out-date-us-alliance
• Greg Jericho on rba-interest-rates-decision-australia-inflation
• John Hawkins on lower-inflation-in-the-december-quarter-boosts-chances-of-an-interest-rate-cut
• Donald Rothwell on pow-law-plight-australian-oscar-jenkins-russia
• Stephen Moran on trump-s-trade-policy-risks-australia
• croaking cassandra  on reviewing-covid-experiences-and-policies
• Kieran Hardy on as-antisemitic-attacks-reach-disturbing-levels-is-strengthening-hate-crime-laws-the-answer

OZ Climate

• bowen-wants-federal-agency-to-direct-more-funds-to-home-electrification-solar-and-batteries
  
• contractors-named-for-new-12gwh-pumped-hydro-storage-project
  
• renewables-thrive-as-grid-demand-soars-but-coal-states-suffer-from-repeated-outages
  
• battery-and-solar-connection-bids-surge-as-more-than-10-gw-of-new-capacity-joins-the-grid
  
• like-a-corolla-with-racing-tyres-why-australias-outdated-electricity-market-fails-renewables
  
• big-batteries-boost-profits-and-charge-past-gas-to-become-second-biggest-player-in-evening-peaks
  
• Sina Pinter et al on a-marine-heatwave-in-northwest-australia-is-killing-huge-numbers-of-fish-its-heading-south

Northern America

• Zack Beauchamp on elon-musk-nazi-salute-trump-inauguration
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-birthright-citizenship-defeat-supreme-court
• noahopinion on yes-reshoring-american-industry-is-possible , too-many-americans-still-fear-the-future
• institutional economics on american-eclipse
• Jess Craig on bird-flu-eggs-human-death-prices-government-response
• Tyler Cowen on the-mistakes-of-michael-pettis
• Joel Eissenberg on the-coming-infectious-disease-apocalypse
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-lawlessness
• Mark Stern on trump-illegal-spending-freeze-supreme-court-response
• Andrew Prokop on musk-opm-fork-road-schedule-f
• Scott Pilutik on elon-musk-email-trump-twitter-federal-workers-buyout
• David Graham on trump-national-security-foreign-policy
• Atul Gawande on behind-the-chaotic-attempt-to-freeze-federal-assistance
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-federal-funds-rate-fomc-projections-policy-rule-prescriptions-and-futures-market-predictions-from-the-december-2024-meeting
• Frank Figliuzzi on kash-patel-trump-fbi-director-confirmation-hearing
• Dominik Stecula et al on robert-f-kennedy-jr-s-nomination-signals-a-new-era-of-anti-intellectualism-in-american-politics
• Alexander Sammon on plane-crash-trump-press-conference-dei-dca-figure-skating
• Jeet Heer on biden-gaza-legacy-foreign-policy ,cnn-surrender-trump-corporate-media

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on why-northern-england-is-poor
• Joel Eissenberg on whats-the-matter-with-germany
• Mainly Macro on labour-and-growth
• Robert Paxton on de-gaulles-gamble-the-war-memoirs-of-charles-de-gaulle
• Eric Schliesser on on-the-end-of-nato-a-european-perspective

Asia

• Benjamin Herscovitch on how-much-world-really-backs-beijing-s-claim-taiwan
• Andrew Selth on myanmar-s-failed-junta-turns-five
• Klaus Radito on indonesia-must-reclaim-its-asean-leadership

Wonk

• Sam Harris on the-trouble-with-elon Thanks Nick
• the line of beauty on on-angels-demons-and-artificial-intelligence Thanks Nick
• Claudio Bozzi on china-has-invested-billions-in-ports-around-the-world-this-is-why-the-west-is-so-concerned
• Julia Richardson on trump-has-called-time-on-working-from-home-heres-why-the-world-shouldnt-mindlessly-follow
• Mick Ryan on military-trends-watch-2025
• Tim Harford on the-truth-about-the-forecasting-paradox
• the conversable economist on levels-of-industrial-policy , hayek-on-decentralized-information-in-markets
• Jan Lanicek and Avril Alba on 80-years-after-the-liberation-of-auschwitz-amid-rising-antisemitism-the-memory-of-the-holocaust-remains-contentious
• Tyler Cowen on do-migrants-pay-their-way-a-net-fiscal-analysis-for-germany
• Nick Gruen on elections-and-sortition-two-systems-two-destinies-two-ways-to-do-politics
• Robert Waldmann on givewell-evidenceaction-and-effective-altruism
• stumbling and mumbling on what-the-left-can-learn-from-richard-ii
• Ken Houghton on on-the-80th-anniversary-of-the-beginning-of-the-liberation-of-auschwitz
• Malcolm Jorgensen on abandoning-rules-based-order-no-solution
• Chris Bertram on the-death-of-the-hope-of-progress-and-the-fear-of-being-left-behind
• Mohiudin Ahmed on deepseek-why-the-hot-new-chinese-ai-chatbot-has-big-privacy-and-security-problems
• essays concerning on is-hope-possible-in-the-dark-shadow-of-the-holocaust
• noahopinion on some-simple-lessons-from-chinas-big-AI-breakthrough
• sandwichman on on-politics-that-would-make-a-post-growth-transition-possible

General

• quite useless on all-the-single-men-pride-and-prejudice Thanks Nick
• Christina Phillipou and Kieran Maguire on why-manchester-city-offered-erling-haaland-the-longest-contract-in-premier-league-history
• Nic Timms et al on new-analysis-of-asteroid-dust-reveals-evidence-of-salty-water-in-the-early-solar-system

Climate

• the honest broker on from-idealism-to-realism Thanks Nick
• Nic Rowley on 3-reasons-to-fear-humanity-wont-reach-net-zero-emissions-and-4-reasons-we-might-just-do-it
• real climate on the-amoc-is-slowing-its-stable-its-slowing-no-yes , comparison-update-2024
• and Then Theres Physics on prosocial-censorhip
• open mind on every-tenth-matters

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-fractal-nature-of-scientific-revolutions-3
  
• thou-shalt-not-cheat
  
• reading-the-referee-reports-of-that-retracted-paper-by-the-science-reformers-a-peek-behind-the-curtain
  
• does-anyone-actually-expect-meaningful-insight-to-come-from-a-study-like-this
  
• how-did-laura-wattenbergs-baby-name-predictions-turn-out-15-years-later
  
• unjournal-update
  
• in-decreasing-order-of-importance-1-the-error-2-how-the-error-persisted-3-the-research-misconduct-4-who-did-it
  
• this-device-is-proven-to-protect-athletes-brains-the-science-is-under-fire
  
• supporting-research-because-its-cool-or-because-its-useful
  
• neal-fun
  
• statschat on when-science-news-isnt-new
• Freakometrics on optimal transport on categorical data for counterfactuals, beyond human intervention
• Kaiser Fung on lessons-from-the-tiktok-saga

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-social-life-of-ideas
  
• swings-and-roundabouts-or-slides
  
• Dominic Cummins on reading-list Thanks Tyler

Vox Wonk

• why-uk-gilt-yields-have-risen-us-election-and-what-government-might-do
  
• expropriation-russian-style
  
• financial-conditions-matter-more-interest-rates-new-framework-monetary-policy
  
• tariffs-are-coming-how-trade-dynamics-will-shape-aggregate-demand-and-inflation
  
• new-approaches-measure-increasing-concentration-europe
  
• european-climate-bond
  
• lumpy-investment-matters-heterogeneous-transmission-monetary-policy
  
• building-state-capacity-fragile-states-evidence-afghanistan
  
• ten-years-after-swiss-franc-shock-lessons-prices-expenditure-switching-and-inequality
  
• greenflation-role-policy-instruments-and-regional-and-sectoral-heterogeneity
  
• competition-among-firms-labour-market-and-dynamics-wage-inequality
  
• distributional-consumer-price-indices-and-measurement-inequality
  
• book-bans