A really good post on gas

 David Leitch at renew ecopnomy has a very informative article on gas. It is a must read!

I am waiting on the Trump disastrous tariffs to be announced.

Kaiser Fung destroys doge

 Master Statistician Kaiser Fung examines doge in a statistical way and finds errors.

It isn't long but highly educational.

Maybe we have a good example of the Peter Principle!

Dutton's gas proposals

 Peter Dutton has made a number of proposals regarding gas. There are scant research behind them. Rather amusingly after saying he would not release any modelling until later he demanded the government should release modelling on their proposals!

Okay here are some articles.

• dutton-unveils-plan-to-force-more-gas-into-australian-market-and-expand-production-in-major-pre-election-pitch
  
• we-calculated-how-much-duttons-excise-cut-would-save-you-on-fuel-and-few-will-save-as-much-as-promised
  
• how-cheap-is-peter-duttons-gas-and-how-does-it-compare-to-reckless-renewables
  
• opposition-misses-key-opportunity-to-deliver-cost-of-living-relief
  

I confess not to understanding the logic here. The two highest costs for energy are nuclear and then gas. He is saying he will cut the price of gas however gas has high extraction costs. Gas producers will have lower profits. Their incentive is to sell most overseas where they gain much higher prices. Price controls are very strange if you say you believe in market forces!

The argument against this is that gas producers are making super normal profits and the industry is not competitive however we have not heard this from Dutton.

See Tony Wood for late article

Around the Traps 28/3/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Patrick Cummins on how-fixing-one-flawed-tax-on-the-banks-could-leave-australias-budget-billions-of-dollars-better-off
• Gary Mortimer on accc-finds-australias-supermarkets-are-among-the-worlds-most-profitable-but-doesnt-accuse-them-of-price-gouging
• Richard Moore on europe-compounding-trump-aid-vandalism-australia-must-take-different-path
• Daniel Flitton on aukus-trump-values-driven-leadership-unpacking-dutton-s-foreign-policy-address
• Rachel Wilson and Sofia Kesidou on 4-key-changes-you-may-have-missed-in-the-new-school-funding-agreement
• Greg Jericho on australia-federal-budget-2025-graphs-tax-cuts-economy-ndis-deficit
• John Hawkins on tax-cuts-are-coming-but-not-soon-in-a-cautious-budget
  
• Stephen Bartos on the-2025-budget-has-few-savings-and-surprises-but-it-also-ignores-climate-change
• Ross Gittins on the-government-is-timid-and-uninspired the budget is a perfect fit , budget-to-give-economy-push-next
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-coalition-support-slides
• Willian van Caenegem on non-compete-clauses-make-it-too-hard-to-change-jobs-banning-them-for-millions-of-australians-is-a-good-move
• Henry Cutler on budget-delivers-cheaper-medicines-and-more-bulk-billing-but-leaves-out-long-term-health-reform
• Greg Earl on budget-2025-trump-proofing-labor-s-poll-chances
• David Andrew on australia-may-no-longer-be-deputy-sheriff-but-its-reliance-on-the-us-has-only-grown-deeper-since-2000
• Mark the Ballot on late-march-update

OZ climate

• Joe Hinchcliffe on proposed-nuclear-power-plants-in-queensland-could-not-access-enough-water-to-prevent-a-meltdown-research-finds
• Zoe Richards on synchronised-bleaching-ningaloo-and-the-great-barrier-reef-are-bleaching-in-unison-for-the-first-time
• Adam Morton on australians-deserve-answers-on-climate-before-they-vote-here-are-five-things-we-still-dont-know
• why-solar-and-batteries-are-now-the-engine-room-of-the-energy-transition
  
• australia-should-hitch-its-solar-wagon-to-the-china-juggernaut
  
• explainer-why-are-wind-turbines-so-big-and-could-smaller-be-better
  
• renewable-target-scrapped-as-clp-goes-all-in-on-ageing-gas-plant-and-is-warned-of-blackout-risks
  
• election-watch-duttons-nuke-and-gas-plan-relies-on-the-death-of-australian-industry-and-its-smelters
  
• andrew-forrest-plans-one-of-australias-biggest-solar-farms-in-push-for-real-zero-at-iron-ore-mines
  
• how-cheap-is-peter-duttons-gas-and-how-does-it-compare-to-reckless-renewables
  

Northern America

• Unherd on how-elon-musk-lost-the-plot Thanks Nick
• Brad De Long on rescuing-americas-economy-from-trump
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-birthright-citizenship-impoundment-donald-trump
• institutional economics on the-second-trump-administration-and-late-stage-maoism
• noahopinion on the-corporate-feudalism-thing-wont-work , if-and-when-you-live-in-a-dictatorship-how-will-you-know
• the conversable economist on the-north-american-trade-bloc-at-risk
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-mar-a-lago-accord-march-22-2025
• Victor Abramowicz on there-method-trump-madness
• Kevin Quigley on can-mark-carney-truly-connect-with-canadian-voters-canada-will-now-find-out
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-deportations-gang-pro-palestine-spech-power-grab, signal-leak-trump-vance-hegseth-foreign-policy
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-deportations-el-salvador-courts-immigration
• Billy Coriher on north-carolina-supreme-court-riggs-griffin-voting-rights
• new deal democrat on employment-is-historically-very-weak
• Jennifer Hawkins on why-is-the-us-group-chat-on-houthi-attack-plans-so-concerning-a-military-operations-expert-explains
• Fred Kaplan on signal-group-chat-hegseth-vance-waltz-trump-administration
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-boasberg-constitutional-crisis-latest-doj-king
• Laurence Tribe on trump-us-constitution
• Kruggers on incompetent-or-evil-a-false-dichotomy Thanks Brad
• Julian Sanchez on trump-deportations-tren-de-aragua-alien-enemies-due-process
• Ben Mathis-Lilley on signal-war-plans-group-chat-trump-hegseth-waltz-signalgate
• Jeffrey Goldberg on trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans , signal-group-chat-attack-plans-hegseth-goldberg
• Cristian Farias on how-john-roberts-has-empowered-a-lawless-presidency
• Aymann Ismail on donald-trump-news-ice-immigration-student-rumeysa-ozturk
• Abdallad Fayyad on mahmoud-khalil-detention-pro-palestinian-arrests-deportations
• Nitish Pahwa on trump-blames-signal-leak-scandal-privacy-tech-america

Europe

• Mainly Macro on labours-strategic-error-on-tax , why-cant-we-do-fiscal-policy-in-grown-up-way
• Christian Carfair on how-germany-remade-itself-after-the-nazis

Asia

• Chietigj Bajpayee on world-goes-regional-india-thinks-global-perhaps-its-detriment
• Robert Walker and Hilaman Palaon on indonesia-s-ev-gamble-green-surface-dirty-underneath
• Herve Lemuhieu on could-india-be-third-wheel-g2-world
• Thomas Shugart on awful-lawful-china-s-australia-flotilla
• Roland Rajah and Ahmed Albayrak on made-vietnam-or-backdoor-chinese-exports
• Melissa Tyler on raisina-dialogue-triumph-fence-sitters
• Cynthia Meboob on cutting-through-narrative-what-china-s-deep-sea-cable-cutter-really-signals
• Alexandre Davant and Grace Stanhope on philippines-walks-tightrope-chinese-aid

Wonk

• David Sessions on defending-the-professional-managerial-class Thanks Nick
• Ecume on the professional managerial class has no future Thanks Nick
• Gail Wilson on peer-review-is-meant-to-prevent-scientific-misconduct-but-it-has-its-own-problems
• Tim Harford on an-alternative-take-on-trumps-favourite-word
• Erin O'Brien and Justine Coneybear on trouble-at-tesla-and-protests-against-trumps-tariffs-suggest-consumer-boycotts-are-starting-to-bite
• Alex Tabarrok on what-follows-from-lab-leak , argentinas-doge
• Yvonne Breitweeiser-Feiser on the-icc-showed-its-might-by-arresting-rodrigo-duterte-its-reputation-will-take-longer-to-fix
• the conversable economist on the-impracticality-of-henry-georges-land-tax , the-benefits-and-dangers-of-decision-making-by-algorithm
• Brad De Long on keynesianism-unhyphenated-draft
• Isaac Chotiner on is-turkeys-declining-democracy-a-model-for-trumps-america

General

• Matt Cohen and Matt Hunt on americans-cant-stop-aussie-kickers-on-college-football-fields-so-theyre-trying-in-court
• Carolina Rodriguez on how-often-should-i-wash-my-exercise-clothes

Climate

• Real Climate on wmo-update-on-2023-4-anomalies
• open mind on recent-global-temperature-acceleration-or-surge , questions-and-answers
• skeptical science on China-10TW-wind-solar-2060
• Andrew Freedman on renewables-record-growth-solar-wind-power

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-piranha-principle-what-does-it-mean-exactly
  
• can-i-teach-integral-calculus-before-differential-calculus
  
• we-have-here-two-papers-that-are-critical-of-the-culture-of-academic-economics-where-can-they-be-published
  
• routine-bread-and-butter-run-of-the-mill-junk-science-from-2015
  
• lets-analyze-how-we-analyze
  
• on-that-claim-about-how-does-energy-impact-economic-growth
  
• solve-a-simpler-version-of-the-problem
  
• new-yorker-magazine-demonstrates-a-naive-faith-in-social-science
  
• statschat on bogus-tesla-polls , ebikes-for-brains
• freakometrics on the multi-armed bandit problem
• Kaiser Fung on the-dangerous-story-first-data-analysts

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the good science project on book-review-unreliable-bias-fraud Thanks Nick

Vox Wonk

• fat-tails-and-lots-zeros-nature-international-investment
  
• value-values-and-role-awareness
  
• structural-transformation-public-space-high-street-changes-and-populism
  
• lost-translation-ais-impact-translators-and-foreign-language-skills
  
• riders-storm-effects-regulating-platform-work
  
• what-we-can-learn-koreas-demographic-meltdown
  
• mining-insights-underground-economy
  
• asymmetric-sanctions-russian-individuals
  
• inflation-expectations-and-anchoring-during-disinflation-episode-evidence-euro-area
  
• twitter-sentiment-and-stock-market-movements-predictive-power-social-media
  
• extreme-heat-hospital-crowding-and-hidden-health-costs-climate-change
  
• bridging-investment-gap-eu
  
• occupational-recommendations-and-job-finding
  
• nordic-model-and-income-equality-myths-facts-and-policy-lessons
  

signalgate

 Here it is:

• trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans
  
• signal-group-chat-attack-plans-hegseth-goldberg
  

An added bonus Kruggers on incompetent-or-evil-a-false-dichotomy  thanks Brad

the Budget and other things

 Here are a few articles on the budget.

• tax-cuts-are-coming-but-not-soon-in-a-cautious-budget
  
• the-2025-budget-has-few-savings-and-surprises-but-it-also-ignores-climate-change
  
• the-government-is-timid-and-uninspired-the-budget-is-a-perfect-fit
  

My only comment is I think the BEST measure announced is that non-competitive clauses will be legislated against. It is fantastic.

Sorry my second is without the tax cuts the structural deficit would not increase.There was no need to do this. Just remember it is the change in the structural deficit that counts.

A bonus

• poll-roundup-coalition-support-slides
  

On the complete embarrassment in the USA

• why-is-the-us-group-chat-on-houthi-attack-plans-so-concerning-a-military-operations-expert-explains
  
• signal-group-chat-hegseth-vance-waltz-trump-administration
  

Always remember most of the trump administration are simply incompetent. This is merely another example. DOGE is another.

Just remember one of the group was in moscow at the time!

what does the rule of law mean?

Over in the failed state of the USA people are rightly accusing Trump of abusing the rule of law.

The main ingredient of the rule of law is due process. Due process is usually a trial. Proving a person is a criminal is as easy as proving voting fraud. It seems Trump can do neither.

Please note there were two problems in the jetting off of those 'illegal' immigrants. The first is whether the act they were sent was legal. The other was the utter failure for Trump to show evidence of the assertions he made which is necessary to deport them. There are problems.

Thus in any democracy a government must adhere to due process. A government that doesn't is veering to autocracy. It gets worse when people are denied entry to a country when officials demand to look at people's phones and deny entry if there is anything critical of trump!

Allman Brothers

 When dicky Betts died I said duanne allman was the superior guitarist.

Well the solo on you don't love me on the live at the filmore album might change people's minds! go to about 8.30 minute if you are impatient!

breath taking.  If Duane had not died who knows where they would have gone

Around the Traps 21/3/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Alex Vassiley on after-30-years-on-the-outer-unions-could-soon-return-to-the-pilbara-heres-why-thats-a-big-deal
• John Blaxland on cooler-heads-must-prevail-with-trump-australia-shouldnt-give-up-on-the-special-friendship
• Charles Livingstone on whatever-happens-to-star-the-age-of-unfettered-gambling-revenue-for-casinos-may-have-ended
• Ross Gittins on argy-bargy-on-way-to-next-weeks-off-again-on-again-budget , trump-is-making-huge-blunder-heres-how-we-seize-the-moment
• Felicity Deane on the-next-round-in-the-us-trade-war-has-the-potential-to-be-more-damaging-for-australia
• Greg Jericho on expect-a-lot-of-talk-from-chalmers-about-the-deficit-but-remember-the-golden-rule-budgets-are-always-about-choices
• John Quiggin on the-australian-economy-has-changed-dramatically-since-2000-the-way-we-work-now-is-radically-different
• Luke Beck on peter-dutton-wants-to-deport-criminal-dual-citizens-we-already-have-laws-for-that
• Richard Dunley on australian-defence-nebulous-archipelago
• Hugh Piper on new-transactional-era-australia-s-us-alliance-needs-review
• Mark the Ballot on mid-march-2025-update
• Bonny Parkinson on australias-pbs-means-consumers-pay-less-for-expensive-medicines-heres-how-this-system-works
• Anthony Scott et al on will-the-us-trade-war-push-up-the-price-of-medicines-in-australia-will-there-be-drug-shortages

OZ Climate

• energy-ministers-push-for-rethink-on-how-regulator-sets-electricity-price-benchmark
  
• solar-battery-deal-for-giant-smelter-is-a-stunning-game-changer-for-australian-energy
  
• do-retail-electricity-prices-really-need-to-increase-from-july
  
• giant-eight-hour-battery-project-changes-hands-as-storage-costs-plunge-40-per-cent
  
• white-hot-rage-pv-industry-begs-governments-to-do-better-on-solar-switch-off
  
• dutton-blames-renewables-for-rising-power-prices-but-bills-would-be-much-higher-without-them
  
• gas-shortage-warnings-pushed-out-three-years-as-households-and-businesses-go-electric
  
• four-new-giant-batteries-to-be-built-in-w-a-as-worlds-biggest-isolated-grid-navigates-transition-from-coal
  
• 
  
• Timothy Weber and Andrew Blakers on why-build-nuclear-power-in-place-of-old-coal-when-you-could-have-pumped-hydropower-instead
• Albert Van Djik et al on rain-gave-australias-environment-a-fourth-year-of-reprieve-in-2024-but-this-masks-deepening-problems-report

Northern America

• institutional economics on putting-paid-to-the-trump-put
• Brad De Long on draft-yes-this-is-who-we-are-the-forthcoming-deportation of -Mahmoud-Khalil , blame-the-right-wing-noise-machine
• Jonathan Rauch on corruption-trump-administration Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on the-paranoid-style-in-maga-policy Thanks Nick
• the weekly dish on the-return-of-the-mccarthyite-chill Thanks Nick
• Richard Haniana on liberals-only-censor-musk-seeks-to-lobotomise Thanks Nick
• Jess Craig on foreign-aid-cuts-trump-charts-usaid-pepfar-who-hiv
• noahopinion on its-time-to-start-panicking-about-the-national-debt , dems-need-to-moderate-and-fight
• Andrew Prokop on trump-deportations-judge-boasberg-el-salvador
• Ian Millhiser on trump-defy-supreme-court-alawieh-deportation
• the conversable economist on snapshots-about-the-federal-workforce
• Ali Hoenig on is-trump-actively-defying-a-court-order-on-deportations
• Riley Duke on us-aid-cuts-are-soft-power-surrender-china
• Sussanna Patton on silencing-voice-america
• Menzie Chinn on jeffrey-frankel-where-next-for-u-s-economy
• Frank Figliuzzi on fbi-bongino-patel-politicization-trump-newsletter
• Joel Eissenberg on will-trumpism-drive-a-brain-drain-in-the-us
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-pro-israel-antisemitism-musk-columbia
• Christopher Eisgruber on columbia-academic-freedom
• Christopher Browning on trump-antisemitism-academia
• Nadia El Haj on mahmoud-khalil-is-not-safe
• Ruth Marcus on the-trump-administration-nears-open-defiance-of-the-courts
• David Cole on mahmoud-khalil-and-the-last-time-pro-palestinian-activists-faced-deportation
• David Smith on trump-is-ignoring-the-power-of-nationalism-at-his-own-peril
• Eric Levitz on ezra-klein-thompson-abundance-book-criticism
• Shirin ali and Mark Stern on immigration-trump-news-mass-deportations-tren-de-aragua
• Frank Bowman on trump-impeach-judges-constitution-threat

Europe

• unherd on europes-great-delusion Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on the-russian-economy-under-more-pressure
• Galnya Piskorska on local-newspapers-are-a-lifeline-in-ukraine-but-usaid-cuts-may-force-many-to-close-or-become-biased-mouthpieces
• Mick Ryan on dispatch-ukraine-adaptation-battle-intensifies
• Eglantine Staunton on pivotal-moment-european-strategic-autonomy-courtesy-trump
• Celeste Wallander on key-ukraines-survival
• Jon Richardson on putin-made-trump-wait-then-strung-him-along-its-clear-his-war-aims-in-ukraine-have-not-changed

Asia

• Andrew Selth on russia-boost-myanmar-s-imagery-intelligence
• noahopinion on china-is-trying-to-kneecap-indian-manufacturing
• Selwyn Parker on suez-battles-forces-beyond-its-control
• Saqlain Rizve on battle-without-weapons-fuels-india-pakistan-nationalism
• Marika Sosnosnki on the-israel-hamas-ceasefire-didnt-resolve-any-deep-seated-issues-now-its-shattered , why-did-the-israel-hamas-ceasefire-fall-apart-it-was-never-going-to-solve-the-root-causes-of-the-conflict
• Gabriela Bernal on command-sovereignty-who-controls-south-korea-s-military-wartime
• Su Thant on china-s-tightrope-walk-mediating-myanmar
• Khang Vu on north-korea-tourist-trap

Wonk

• Josh Marshall on toward-a-theory-of-civic-sede-vacantism Thanks Nick
• unpopular front on gold-and-brown Thanks Nick
• Andrea Wong on duterte-s-icc-arrest-day-reckoning
• Tim Harford on what-elon-can-learn-from-the-original-doge
• stumbling and mumbling on constraints
• the conversable economist on mistaken-identities-the-international-trade-version , private-credit-replacing-banks-for-business-loans , interview-with-paul-krugman-trade-and-industrial-policy
• Henry Storey on will-trump-force-europe-china-s-arms
• mainly macro on falling-confidence-in-vaccination

General

• the ruffian on the-potency-of-jokes Thanks Nick
• Laura Driessen on saturn-now-has-274-moons-but-exactly-what-makes-something-a-moon-remains-unclear
• Randall Wayth on less-than-1-of-the-worlds-biggest-radio-telescope-is-complete-but-its-first-image-reveals-a-sky-dotted-with-ancient-galaxies
• Themiya Nannayakkara on youve-heard-of-the-big-bang-now-astronomers-have-discovered-the-big-wheel-heres-why-its-significant

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on reaping-the-whirlwind
• real climate on climate-change-in-africa , andean-glaciers-have-shrunk-more-than-ever-before-in-the-holocene/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=andean-glaciers-have-shrunk-more-than-ever-before-in-the-holocene
• Andrew King and Luke Ashcroft on flooding-in-the-sahara-amazon-tributaries-drying-and-warming-tipping-over-1-5-c-2024-broke-all-the-wrong-records
• David Appell on is-ocean-heat-content-really-accelerating

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• debate-about-quantum-supremacy-whatever-that-is
  
• whats-the-best-artistic-literary-format-for-conveying-the-feel-of-the-slacker-lifestyle-two-slacker-stories-by-lucy-sante-and-matt-madden
  
• how-is-the-integrity-crisis-in-business-reporting-like-the-integrity-crisis-in-science
  
• why-isnt-the-cramer-rao-lower-bound-invoked-more-in-applied-research
  
• speaking-of-government-waste
  
• new-paper-on-conformal-prediction-and-human-decisions
  
• why-i-use-the-term-forking-paths
  
• how-is-an-american-research-university-funded
  
• you-can-learn-a-lot-from-a-simple-simulation-example-of-experimental-design-with-unequal-variances-for-treatment-and-control-data
  
• statschat on denominators , good-news-graph
• freakometrics on equipy
• Kaiser Fung on self-checkout-keeps-growing-despite-theft

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• catching-up
  
• noahopinion on book-review-abundance

Vox Wonk

• estimating-local-gdp-everywhere
  
• spooky-boundaries-distance-inductive-bias-dynamic-models-and-behavioural-macro
  
• happiness-reference-dependence-and-motivated-beliefs-us-presidential-elections
  
• impact-trumps-economic-policy-eu-economy
  
• government-multipliers-are-symmetric-positive-and-negative-spending-shocks-new
  
• effects-parental-leave-policy-reforms-fertility-and-gender-gaps
  
• income-wealth-and-environmental-inequality-us
  
• ai-automation-and-rise-female-employment-europe
  
• cybersecurity-vulnerabilities-and-their-financial-impact
  
• government-subsidies-large-manufacturing-firms-insights-oecd-magic-database
  
• technological-innovation-bank-supervision-how-suptech-disciplines-bank-risk-taking
  

Why has Tesla tanked

 The price of Tesla shares have fallen over 50% at the time of writing. Why has this occurred?

To my mind it is all about Elon Musk.

Firstly the time Musk is using doing 'doge' work is time he is not concentrating on restoring tesla's fortunes. This is very important.

Secondly there is Musk himself. Before twitter and the election we knew little of Musk. He was the genius behind Tesla  ( which always looked way overvalued. Have you ever looked at their P/E ratios?).

 His takeover of twitter showed he was not the genius at all. His cuts at twitter were poorly thought out if there was any thought put into the cuts.Then we had Musk championing conspiracy theories he reads on twitter. Lastly He lies, like trump , like there is no tomorrow. An example. He claims Democrats wants undocumented immigrants in the USA so they can get social security and then vote for them in elections.  Only problem is undocumented immigrants contribute to social security but cannot collect anything. It is for the same reason they cannot vote. They are undocumented. No documentation then no registering!!!

Put all that together and your view of Musk and therefore Tesla  is viewed in a very different light.

The world is in a bad place

 Trump and Putin had a telephone call to discuss 'peace' in the russian war against Ukraine. It was a joke. Putin for example demanded Ukraine get NO aid or intelligence from any nation. He does not want peace he wants Ukraine.I would not mind betting he thinks NATO is in such a disarray because of the US he could invade a NATO country and little would happen.

Israel commenced bombing in Gaza killing hundreds of people. Again it seems they do not care how many palestinians are killed if they kill some Hamas personnel. This act is as barbaric as was the Hams massacre. It is all about revenge and merely spreads hate. Hate begats more killing.

In the USA people are removed without due process. Authorities do not attempt to prove their acessations they act on them. There is no attempt to act within the rule of law. This is the worst example the USA could do with the rest of the world looking on. It is a lot of things democracy it is not.

The world is in a bad place

Just when you don't think they can't get any worse

 A common criminal breaks the law. I'm shocked.

See

• trump-defy-supreme-court-alawieh-deportation
  
• trump-deportations-judge-boasberg-el-salvador
  
• donald-trump-sister-mahmoud-khalil-abduction
• is-trump-actively-defying-a-court-order-on-deportations
  

Trump is now challenging the courts just as people said he would. Will the rule of law win out.

what mobsters like trump do not understand is capitalism only thrives when the rule of law is paramount. It does not thrive when it is who you know NOT what you know is in operation.

Low IQ common criminals do not understand this and it explains why the economy rarely thrives under dictators or wannabe dictators.

I should add two points

1. The only evidence prurred that the people were members of a criminal gang was the tattoos. I'm no expert og gangs but even I have heard of people getting tattoos to avoid violence by the said gangs!
2. Thus far the government have not even matched Biden in the number of illegal immigrants they have gotten and even then almost half of them are not even criminals. Indeed they have no asked congress for more money to implement the program,

renewables are cheaper

 Another example of renewables being superior to all other sources of electricity. Rio Tinto is choosing renewables in Gadstone where it consumes large amounts of electricity.

Game over move on the transition more quickly if possible!

Around the Traps 14/3/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Antonia Settle on more-households-than-ever-are-under-insured-heres-what-needs-to-be-done
• Narelle Miragliotta et al on another-decisive-labor-win-in-wa-but-much-remains-at-stake
• croaking cassandra on a-letter , on-the-way-ahead
• Ross Gittins on maybe-inflation-surge-didnt-happen-the-way-we-thought , how-many-more-cyclones-before-our-polticians-do-something , fixing-economy-is-like-training-for-a-marathon-not-much-fun
• Mark the Ballot on there-was-movement-at-station
• Jason Nassios and James Glesecke on replacing-stamp-duty-with-a-land-tax-could-save-home-buyers-big-money-heres-how
• Amra Lee on protecting-frontline-humanitarians-australia-s-role-middle-power
• Keiran Hardy on is-fake-terrorism-still-terrorism-heres-what-the-sydney-caravan-incident-tells-us
• Greg Jericho on gone-are-the-days-when-a-good-job-gets-you-a-house-and-now-we-have-the-data-to-prove-it
• Lisa Toohey on with-australian-steel-and-aluminium-set-to-incur-us-tariffs-global-uncertainty-will-be-our-next-challenge
• Dennis Muller on newspapers-cannot-justify-running-clive-palmers-trumpet-of-patriots-ads-as-freedom-of-speech
• Peter Whitehead on despite-recent-increases-jobseeker-still-leaves-people-below-the-poverty-line-heres-why-that-affects-us-all
• Roland Rajah on steel-yourselves-trump-s-worldwide-tariffs-threaten-australia-more
• Jenny Gordon on trump-s-tariffs-smarter-option-australia-retaliate
• Peter Tesch on aukus-two-pillars-three-fallacies
• John Blaxland on cooler-heads-must-prevail-with-trump-australia-shouldnt-give-up-on-the-special-friendship

OZ Climate

• Sean Eves et al on nzs-glaciers-have-already-lost-nearly-a-third-of-their-ice-as-more-vanishes-landscapes-and-lives-change
• federal-and-state-governments-identify-56-priority-wind-solar-battery-and-transmission-project
  
• a-break-down-of-new-wind-and-solar-projects-when-will-they-blow-and-when-will-they-shine
  
• australias-oldest-wind-turbines-back-in-action-with-a-danish-facelift-and-a-major-life-extension
  
• gas-network-death-spiral-pressure-mounts-to-protect-consumers-from-cost-of-stranded-assets
  
• solar-farms-can-host-up-to-three-times-as-many-birds-as-crop-fields-new-research
  
• solar-battery-deal-for-giant-smelter-is-a-stunning-game-changer-for-australian-energy
  
• fossil-fuel-behemoth-the-climate-cost-of-australias-bipartisan-addiction-to-coal-and-gas
  
• regulatory-safety-nets-not-fit-for-purpose-as-energy-consumers-fall-victim-to-rapacious-utilities
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on trumps-economic-embargo-of-the-united-states
• noahopinion on this-thing-will-fail , there-is-no-utopia-waiting-on-the-other-side-for-trumps-economy
• Olufemi Taiwo on trump-musk-doge-dei-diversity-equity-inclusion-race-gender-labor
• the conversable economist on three-questions-on-the-us-safety-net
• unpopular front on the-abduction-of-mahmoud-khalil Thanks Brad
• Nicole Narea on mahmoud-khalil-palestinian-student-columbia-trump
• Michael Roth on mahmoud-khalil-trump-columbia-student-ice-green-card
• Mark Stern on opm-charles-ezell-trump-mass-firing-testimony-weasel
• Ray Brescia on trump-executive-order-lawyers-jack-smith
• Frank Figliuzzi on kash-patel-fbi-trump-phone-line
• Patrick Schouker on energy-security-lead-don-t-lag
• Andrew Prokop on trump-recession-markets-economy-crash
• David Frum on maga-strategy-spin-machine
• Brian Klaas on doge-musk-catastrophic-risk
• Jonathan Portes on maganomics-trump-economic-strategy-crash-crisis
• Joshua Craze on usaid-goodbye-to-all-that
• Sue Halpern on trump-is-still-trying-to-undermine-elections
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03
• Jeet Heer on trump-musk-doge-cabinet-infighting
• Stephen Harrington and Timothy Graham on how-trump-is-weaponising-the-department-of-justice-and-the-dark-tactic-hes-using-to-get-away-with-it
• Umair Irfan on epa-climate-rollback-endangement-trump-environment
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-steeling-losses-sectoral-strains-from-the-return-of-tariffs-on-steel-and-aluminium
• Brad De Long on rip-kevin-drum
• Elle Mystal on mahmoud-khalil-arrest-illegal-fascism
• Jacques Berlinerblau on mahmoud-khalil-ice-arrest-liberal-jews

Europe

• Jessica Genoer on the-eu-will-spend-billions-more-on-defence-its-a-powerful-statement-but-wont-do-much-for-ukraine
• mainly macro on the-moves-to-weaken-germanys-debt-brake-are-welcome
• noahopinion on why-america-betrayed-europe
• Fred Kaplan on trump-russia-ukraine-news-zelensky-putin

Asia

• Andrew Selth on myanmar-s-impossible-plutonium-puzzle
• Ali Marmouri on after-mass-killings-in-syria-can-a-fragmented-country-stay-united
• Don Gill on uncovering-china-s-spying-game-philippines
• Phillip Eliason on syria-s-de-facto-leader-faces-home-truths
• Rahman Yaacob on singapore-s-navy-modernisation-big-size-small-personnel
• Shankaran Nambiar on trump-s-tariffs-india-modi-will-have-step-back-move-ahead

Wonk

• Nick Gruen on donald-trump-tariffs-impact-global-economy
• mostly aesthetics on billy-budd-as-political-thought thanks Nick
• Alopi Latukefu on realists-their-limits-world-today
• Gabriela Bernal on pyongyang-moscow-ties-will-outlive-ukraine-conflict
• Jan Lanicek and Ruth Balint on a-new-definition-of-antisemitism-from-universities-australia-is-attracting-criticism-two-historians-explain-why
• the conversable economist on will-the-next-generation-be-better-off-international-pessimism
• stumbling and mumbling on constraints

General

• Tim Harford on the-case-for-late-bloomers
• Catherine Wilkinson on a-milton-for-all-seasons-what-in-me-is-dark-reade

Climate

• David Appell on roy-spencers-comical-sad-desperate-arguments
• open mind on trumps-war-on-science
• real climate on we-need-noaa-now-more-than-ever

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• a-post-mortem-on-the-gino-case-committing-fraud-is-right-now-a-viable-career-strategy-that-can-propel-you-at-the-top-of-the-academic-world
  
• 70000-assyrians
  
• the-value-of-remembering-past-failures-the-example-of-mars-one
  
• contestants-and-ai-competitor-predict-cherry-blossoms-this-month
  
• what-does-jesus-have-to-do-with-linear-regression
  
• those-youth-sports-travel-teams
  
• intelligence-as-a-way-of-being-as-well-as-a-personal-attribute-a-reflection-on-when-supposedly-intelligent-people-say-stupid-things
  
• is-conceptual-purity-the-defining-aesthetic-in-academic-computer-science
  
• debate-about-quantum-supremacy-whatever-that-is
  
• statschat on painkillers-and-dementia , more-panadol-scare-headlines
• freakometrics on moral maze
• Kaiser Fung on self-checkout-keeps-growing-despite-theft

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• completing-ukraines-reconstruction-architecture
  
• early-school-leaving-and-dismal-life-events-homelessness-incarceration-and-substance
  
• overlooked-economic-value-adult-informal-care
  
• housing-and-fertility
  
• overlooked-economic-value-adult-informal-care
  
• insuring-world-tomorrow
  
• industrial-policy-eu-working-together-get-it-right
  
• survey-mode-effects-and-youth-mental-health-asia-and-middle-east
  
• charting-uncharted-unintended-consequences-oil-sanctions-and-dark-shipping
  
• replacing-foreign-aid-macroeconomic-plan-b-ukraine-and-europe
  
• perceived-costs-business-cycles-and-inflation
  
• new-developments-total-factor-productivity-measurement-reflecting-innovative
  
• effectiveness-sanctions-russia-new-data-and-new-evidence
  
• central-bank-communication-polarised-world
  
• price-power-why-rising-markups-hurt-innovation-and-widen-inequality
  

What does Putin have on Trump

 It is very hard to explain Trump's behaviour towards Ukraine.

Russia invaded Ukraine. It is the aggressor yet Trump is demanding concessions from Ukraine and thus far none from Russia. He is parroting russian talking points. Notice how he emphasises the possibility of a third world war. This was the cause of biden's timidity until he realised how empty the threat was.

The Russian economy is on its knees. Inflation is raging there and thus interest rates are rising. Sanctions are exacerbating cost pressures in Russia. Butter is so dear it is being stolen from supermarkets!

Trump must surely being told this yet he is ignoring it.

Why would he support Russia and not Ukraine?

Khalil's arrest is a disgrace.

 Here are a few articles on this subject.

• the-abduction-of-mahmoud-khalil
  
• mahmoud-khalil-palestinian-student-columbia-trump
  
• mahmoud-khalil-trump-columbia-student-ice-green-card
  

I read a number of articles on this yesrday and saw some TV on it. On various occasions it was alleged he was a Hamas supporter but no evidence was ever put up supporting that assertion. It appears to me this is another disgraceful attempt of attempting to say being pro-palestinian is being pro-hamas. They even mix up their flags.

another example of Trump's authoritarianism and his attack on free speech.

his supporters don't care.

It was a crock

 I said at the time that the caravan full of explosives targeting sybagues was a crock and so it was.

It was not hard to discern this. The explosives in the caravan are no longer used in mines. There were NO detonators, the caravan was parked illegally for over a week before a neighbour parked it in his property and then it was another extended period before the neighbour actually looked in the caravan!

You had to be a wood duck of the highest proportion to believe this was a serious threat but of course Sky after dark went into meltdown.

Again we learnt yesterday most of the people arrested for all these 'anti-semitic' crimes were anti-semitic at all. They were paid by common criminals!

A few different things

 MY back is terrible so I might link some interesting articles.

• long-distance-objectors-pile-in-against-small-solar-battery-project-in-regional-nsw
  
• a-summer-of-record-renewables-record-demand-highs-and-record-demand-lows-and-no-blackouts
  
• when-the-coal-plant-dont-work-report-counts-6000-hours-of-outages-at-eraring-over-2024
  
• putin-hitler-munich-parallel
  
• roberta-flacks-musical-transformations
  
• no-an-election-forecast-thats-50-50-is-not-giving-up-no-the-election-forecasters-in-2024-did-not-say-whatever-happened-it-was-supposed-to-be-razor-thin
  
• smoking-three-packs-a-day
  
• new-analysis-economists-ukraine-cost-us-aid-ukraine-less-half-official-figures
  

Around the Traps 7/3/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on forty-years-of-floating, or-not , australias-pandemic-exceptionalism , 11-billion-and-out
• Richard Dunley on political-fighting-over-chinese-warships-misses-the-point-australias-navy-is-no-match-for-chinas-built-up-force
• Ross Gittins on women-still-being-kept-in-home-but-not-by-what-you-think , the-real-truth-on-productivity-bosses-arent-trying-hard-enough , our-home-building-industry-is-going-nowhere-fast , our-jobs-market-is-booming-but-rba-needn't-be-worried
• Rebecca Strating on a-middle-power-with-great-and-powerful-friends-australias-changing-role-in-the-region
• Emma Gerhardy on hidden-national-security-threat-misogynistic-extremism
• Mick Ryan on australian-peacekeepers-ukraine
• Stephen Bartos on australias-economy-has-turned-the-corner-and-consumer-spending-was-a-big-help
• Greg Jericho on rba-interest-rates-australia-inflation-data-gdp-growth
• Ferdi Botha on hilda-data-shows-income-inequality-is-at-a-20-year-high

OZ Climate

• were-at-an-inflection-point-nelson-review-may-move-quickly-on-some-energy-market-reforms
  
• long-distance-objectors-pile-in-against-small-solar-battery-project-in-regional-nsw
  
• total-energy-bills-are-more-important-than-wholesale-prices-even-if-you-have-rooftop-solar
  
• baseload-outages-and-generator-rebidding-how-energy-customers-got-screwed-by-high-prices
  
• peter-duttons-nuclear-plan-will-blow-out-household-electricity-bills-by-up-to-600-a-year-by-2030
  
• pumped-hydro-doesnt-have-to-be-expensive-if-it-is-it-might-be-in-the-wrong-spot
  
• offshore-wind-sector-feeling-the-dutton-effect-even-from-the-shadows-of-opposition
  
• a-summer-of-record-renewables-record-demand-highs-and-record-demand-lows-and-no-blackouts
  
• australias-biggest-battery-project-nears-first-production-as-it-enters-grid-management-system
  
• world-leading-array-of-massive-eight-hour-solar-batteries-to-reboot-australian-manufacturing
  
• when-the-coal-plant-dont-work-report-counts-6000-hours-of-outages-at-eraring-over-2024
  
• biggest-threat-to-affordable-and-reliable-electricity-in-victoria-it-might-just-be-peter-dutton
  
• green-hydrogen-production-plant-taps-100-pct-renewable-grid-using-cutting-edge-electrolyser
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on face-down-in-the-trump-trade
• the UNpopulist on trumps-america-is-in-a-free-fall-not-a-slippery-slope-to tyranny Thanks Nick
• Peter Browne on hungarian-playbook Thanks Nick
• Michael Tracey on master-diplomats-biden-and-blinken Thanks Nick
• Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyrenko on raised-voices-and-angry-scenes-at-the-white-house-as-trump-clashes-with-zelensky-over-the-minerals-deal
• Shaddi Saif on trump-strong-arms-zelenskyy-afghans-have-seen-these-tactics
• Jon Richardson on trump-russia-ukraine-descent-lawlessness
• Mick Ryan on oval-office-ambush
• Eric Levitz on trump-zelenskyy-ukraine-russia-press-conference-joe-rogan
• Fred Kaplan on trump-zelensky-meeting-news-vance-ukraine
• David Frum on least-now-we-know-truth-about-trump-and-vance , donald-trump-congress-address
• David Remnick on trumps-disgrace
• Mathew Sussex on in-siding-with-russia-over-ukraine-trump-is-not-putting-america-first-he-is-hastening-its-decline
• Abdallah Faayad on trump-ends-congestion-pricing-low-income-commuters-public-transit
• noahopinion on america-is-ruled-by-gangsters-now , a-sovereign-crypto-fund-is-a-new-way-to-pay-off-cronies , trump-takes-a-baseball-bat-to-the-economy
• Brendan O'connor on donald-trump-is-picking-fights-with-leaders-around-the-world-what-exactly-is-his-foreign-policy-approach
• Patrick Reis on justice-department-prosecutors-purge
• Michael Clarke on geopolitical-fantasists-no-trump-won-t-pull-reverse-nixon
• Andrew Prokop on trump-tariffs-trade-war-retaliation-canada-mexico-china
• Joshua Keating on trump-putin-russia-ukraine
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-alito-clean-water-ruling-pollution-good
• Alex Tabarrok on regime-uncertainty
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-usaid-trump-aids-vaccine
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-supreme-court-loss-usaid-musk-john-roberts
• Aryeh Neier on our-chamberlain-trump-ukraine
• Sussan Glasser on donald-trump-address-to-joint-session-of-congress
• the conversable economist on economic-uncertainty-in-the-us-economy
• Jeet Heer on trump-state-union-permanent-campaign
• Robert Kagan on putin-hitler-munich-parallel
• Fred Kaplan on russia-ukraine-donald-trump-sanctions-putin

Europe

• James Verini on the-imperialist-philosopher-who-demanded-the-ukraine-war
• Mainly Macro on current-uk-stagnation-may-have-many-causes
• Jessica Genauer on the-strategies-and-risks-european-powers-must-consider-when-it-comes-to-tackling-trump
• Mark Pierce on zelenskyy-might-have-benefited-warm-talking-trump
• Isaac Chotiner on what-putin-wants-now

Asia

• David Vallance on china-s-naval-growth-goes-vertical
• Ciara Morris on feminism-still-dirty-word-china
• Rushali Saha on navigating-new-realities-india-bangladesh-ties
• noahopinion on is-china-inventing-big-important-things
• Scott Lucas on gaza-ceasefire-deal-looks-doomed-as-israel-blockades-strip-and-bars-entry-of-humanitarian-aid

Wonk

• Tim Harford on its-february-time-for-another-fresh-start
• Donald Rothwell on live-fire-loophole-law-of-the-sea
• Mathew Sussex on safe-for-autocracy-the-world-according-to-putin-and-trump
• Ben Wellings and Tom Howe on can-the-uk-prime-minister-make-liberal-democracies-great-again
• the conversable economist on adam-smith-on-those-who-wish-to-dominate-others
• croaking cassandra on bernanke-on-inflation-targeting

General

• Hanif Abduraquib on roberta-flacks-musical-transformations
• Miroslav Filopovic et al on ghosts-of-the-radio-universe-astronomers-have-discovered-a-slew-of-faint-circular-objects
• Johanna Harris on why-you-should-revisit-the-classics-even-if-you-were-turned-off-them-at-school
• Tim Johnson et al on earths-oldest-impact-crater-was-just-found-in-australia-exactly-where-geologists-hoped-it-would-be

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-pastco2
• open mind on it-begins , global-temperature-adjusted-data , smoking-three-packs-a-day
• Corey Bradshaw on trumps-war-on-climate-science-is-pushing-us-into-a-dystopian-future
• Taimoor Sohail and Bishakhdatta Gayen on melting-antarctic-ice-will-slow-the-worlds-strongest-ocean-current-and-the-global-consequences-are-profound
• Ajit Niranjan on global-sea-ice-hit-all-time-minimum-in-february-scientists-say
• Georgia Hammersly on climate-pledge-delays-world-can-t-afford-more-hot-air
• moyhu on february-global-surface-templs-down

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-r-squared-on-this-is-kinda-low-no
  
• positive-but-not-perfect-correlations-in-novel-writing-and-psychometrics
  
• the-case-against-hypothesis-1
  
• looking-at-your-watch-a-third-time-waiting-in-the-station-for-the-bus
  
• no-an-election-forecast-thats-50-50-is-not-giving-up-no-the-election-forecasters-in-2024-did-not-say-whatever-happened-it-was-supposed-to-be-razor-thin
  
• playing-music-listening-to-music-background-music-talking-about-music
  
• the-answer-to-the-how-many-significant-digits-problem-is-the-same-as-the-answer-to-the-what-to-graph-problem-the-click-through-solution
  
• statschat on adverse-reactions
• Kaiser Fung on running-out-of-matches

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , my-desert-island-discs

Vox Wonk

• e-money-and-monetary-policy-transmission
  
• how-tightening-mortgage-credit-raises-rents-and-increases-inequality-housing-market
  
• trade-liberalisation-and-creation-better-paid-jobs
  
• international-transmission-chinese-monetary-policy-and-commodity-channel
  
• understanding-decline-income-inequality-eu
  
• work-home-divide-insights-six-us-surveys
  
• critical-input-disruptions-mapping-out-road-eu-resilience
  
• leading-schools-raising-scores-role-management-education
  
• covid-pandemic-and-public-support-euro
  
• corporate-sector-vulnerabilities-high-rate-world-growing-risks-financial-stability
  
• gender-bias-access-finance-and-implications-capital-misallocation
  
• new-analysis-economists-ukraine-cost-us-aid-ukraine-less-half-official-figures
  
• addressing-european-competitiveness-investment-integration-and-simplification