Noah Smith is interesting

 Noah Smith writing on his substack noahpinion ( get it) writes a really thoughtful column.

our-age-of-kings.

A great read on a monday morning

 

Puccinni

 If you have never been to the Opera then try La Boheme. Fantastic arias and duets.

Surely this is the greatest aria ever written

Around the Traps 24/10/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ruth Forrest on when-economic-spin-masquerades-as-analysis Thanks Nick
• Shaun Wilson on why-has-support-for-one-nation-surged-since-the-2025-federal-election
• Marilyn Lake on is-australia-still-a-lucky-country-or-has-the-australian-way-lost-its-way
• Patrick Commins on albaneses-critical-minerals-deal-isnt-good-economics-but-in-trump-and-xis-new-world-bargaining-chips-matter
• Emma Shortis on can-albanese-claim-success-with-trump-beyond-the-banter-the-vague-commitments-should-be-viewed-with-scepticism
• Sam Roggeveen on what-trump-told-albanese-about-taiwan-matters-more-aukus
• Jenny Bloomfield on can-rare-earths-be-australia-s-next-mining-boom
• Greg Jericho on australias-surprise-unemployment-spike-suggests-an-economy-not-overheating-but-in-need-of-stimulus
• Gordon Peake on apology-australia-owes-timor-leste-won-t-deliver
• croaking cassandra on rb-still-defending-a-series-of-costly-mistakes
• Alex Simpson on is-melbourne-really-the-crime-capital-of-australia
• Rochelle Kernen and Kathryn Amos on ancient-salt-mountains-in-southern-australia-once-created-refuges-for-early-life
• Aarti Betigeri on us-foreign-worker-visas-where-there-s-crisis-there-s-opportunity
• Nicki Hutley on dont-believe-the-hype-why-australian-taxpayers-should-be-wary-of-the-critical-minerals-deal-with-trump

OZ Climate

• queensland-lnp-is-trying-to-have-its-cake-and-eat-it-too-you-cant-keep-coal-open-and-meet-climate-targets
  
• death-of-baseload-worlds-biggest-isolated-grid-is-reaching-84-pct-wind-and-solar-almost-daily 
  
• big-green-lies-are-renewables-really-tearing-up-agricultural-land
  
• unions-back-plan-for-wind-solar-and-battery-storage-to-save-future-of-struggling-smelters
  
• aemo-boss-says-energy-retailers-need-to-make-vpps-more-attractive-for-homes-with-pv-and-batteries
  
• big-batteries-are-scaling-up-but-we-aint-sending-nothing-yet-when-it-comes-to-capacity-and-price-impact
  
• pay-people-for-their-time-six-ways-we-should-be-funding-regions-to-respond-to-the-energy-transition
  
• aemo-boss-says-energy-retailers-need-to-make-vpps-more-attractive-for-homes-with-pv-and-batteries
  
• tight-squeezes-and-tricky-turns-the-tortuous-path-of-transporting-giant-wind-turbines
• south-australias-biggest-wind-farm-with-the-countrys-lowest-feed-in-tariff-is-officially-open-for-business
  
• australians-install-100000-home-battery-systems-in-17-weeks-and-they-are-getting-bigger
  
• intermittent-coal-bowen-tells-right-wing-think-tank-and-fierce-critic-that-its-got-it-wrong-on-renewables
  
• the-fog-of-electricity-price-disinformation
  
• Alexander Kilmencko on switching-off-the-huge-gladstone-coal-station-in-2029-will-cause-problems-it-needs-a-longer-smarter-phase-out
• Andrew Blakkers et al on white-elephant-hardly-snowy-2-0-will-last-150-years-and-work-with-batteries-to-push-out-gas
• Michelle Ward on queenslands-forests-are-still-being-bulldozed-and-new-parks-alone-wont-save-them

Northern America

• institutional economics on the-us-labour-market-slowdown-cyclical-or-policy-induced
• Joshua Keating on venezuela-trump-maduro-regime-change-drug-boats
• noahopinion on america-could-win-this-trade-war-if-it-wanted-to , after-trump-the-deluge
• the conversable economist on the-unfolding-effects-of-trumps-tariffs
• Tyler Cowen on the-economic-geography-of-american-slavery , the-median-voter-model-or-the-becker-pressure-group-model
• Kruggers on technology-and-jobs , civil-resistance-confronts-the-autocracy , donald-trump-has-lost-touch-with-reality, the-us-economy-is-in-worse-shape-than-it-looks , argentina-and-rural-americas-awakening , trumps-gilded-ballroom-and-the-fall-of-the-american-republic
• Zack Beauchamp on is-australia-still-a-lucky-country-or-has-the-australian-way-lost-its-way
• Andrew Prokop on young-republican-leaked-groupchat-antisemitism-shapiro-walsh
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-ice-no-law , supreme-court-trump-national-guard-illinois-ice-chicago
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-arrogance-problem-for-trump
• Anne Applebaum on trump-no-kings-day-protest-ai-poop
• David Smith on a-supreme-court-showdown-looms-for-trumps-tariffs-will-it-limit-presidential-power
• Mark Stern on trump-portland-crackdown-bad-judge-supreme-court
• Ruth Marcus on tom-homan-and-the-case-of-the-missing-fifty-thousand
• Jonathan Blitzer on the-real-target-of-trumps-war-on-drug-boats
• the conversable economist on the-ambulance-transport-to-dialysis-fraud , marijuana-policy-in-a-fragmented-legal-structure , marijuana-policy-in-a-fragmented-legal-structure
• Fred Kaplan on trump-venezuela-boat-strikes-hegseth
• Jeet Heer on trump-no-kings-post-crapping-on-america
• Joshua Windham on ice-detained-us-citizen-immigration-crackdown-lawsuit
• Blake Lawrence on why-us-activists-are-wearing-inflatable-frog-costumes-at-protests-against-trump
• Benji Jones on florida-coral-reef-extinction
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-02

Europe

• Ed Harrison and Olivia Brown on inside-the-far-right-social-media-ecosystem-normalising-extremist-ideas-in-uk-politics
• Stefan Wolf on russia-now-has-a-strategy-for-a-permanent-state-of-hybrid-war
• Tim Harford on the-uks-problems-arent-caused-by-immigration
• Mick Ryan on last-week-was-disaster-ukraine-america-s-allies
• Gabriela Bernal on europe-should-back-donald-trump-again-engage-kim-jong-un
• Gail McElroy on irelands-presidential-election-race-now-down-to-two-women
• Fred Kaplan on trump-putin-russia-ukraine-meeting-budapest-hungary

Asia

• Neil Thomas on china-s-innovation-fixation
• Amin Saikal on pakistan-and-the-afghan-taliban-avoid-a-deeper-war-for-now-but-how-long-can-the-peace-hold
• Nir Arielli and Jacob Stol on how-an-international-security-force-in-post-war-gaza-could-work
• Robert Walker on sun-setting-southeast-asia-s-solar-exporters
• Kinda Alsamara et al on syrias-new-leader-promised-democracy-then-he-excluded-women-from-parliamentary-elections
• Adam Simpson on japans-economy-needs-foreign-workers-not-the-nationalist-approach-pushed-by-its-new-leader
• Virdirka Utama on prabowo-s-first-year-visibility-without-vision-indonesian-foreign-policy
• Nika Pasko on south-korea-track-become-defence-powerhouse

Wonk

• Erica Mayor on how-my-fake-accent-became-a-full-blown-identity-experiment Thanks Nick
• Hannah Forsyth on death-and-capitalism-part-1-of-4
• Alex Tabarrok on rare-earths-arent-rare , creative-destruction-in-a-nutshell
• Tyler Cowen on some-simple-economics-of-ai-and-macro-cycles
• institutional economics on the-new-normal-of-us-china-economic-warfare
• Amir Razmjou on the-global-race-is-on-to-secure-critical-minerals-why-do-they-matter-so-much
• Carolin Kautz on what-chipmaker-netherlands-can-tell-australia-about-its-commercial-relations-china
• uncharted territories on argentina-could-be-a-superpower Thanks Tyler
• Sussan Davis and Yuan Wang on testosterone-levels-decline-with-age-not-menopause-despite-what-youve-heard
• Bruno Arpi and Donald Rothwell on critical-minerals-us-bid-bypass-international-rules-deep-sea-mining
• Nick Gruen on the-evaluator-general-redux

General

• the neglected books page on Stella Bowen Thanks Nick
• Caroline Spry et al on how-forensic-analysis-and-traditional-knowledge-reveal-the-story-of-a-unique-boomerang
• Paul Crosby on in-her-revenue-era-the-economics-behind-taylor-swifts-34-versions-of-the-life-of-a-showgirl
• Scott McLean on ange-postecoglous-sackings-may-say-more-about-the-premier-leagues-attention-span-than-him
• Nicola Davis on dinosaurs-asteroid-struck-research

Climate

• Hamish Clarke on the-climate-crisis-is-fuelling-extreme-fires-across-the-planet
• and Then Theres Physics on a-controversial-methane-metric
• Tyler Cowen on understanding-and-addressing-temperature-impacts-on-mortality
• Christoph Nedopil on trump-is-pushing-allies-to-buy-us-gas-its-bad-economics-and-a-catastrophe-for-the-climate
• Mark the Graph on net-zero-caught-between-urgency-and-feasibility
• skeptical science on india-power-co2-falls , new_research
• ocean acidification on from-global-emissions-to-local-impacts-spatially-explicit-modeling-of-ocean-acidification-in-life-cycle-assessment

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-war-on-data-2025-edition-2
  
• aversive-statistical-methods-explain-differences-in-dark-publication-in-pnas-across-subject-areas
  
• bayesian-probability-like-frequentist-probability-is-a-model-based-activity-that-is-mathematically-anchored-by-physical-randomization-at-one-end-and-calibration-to-a-reference-set-at-the-other
  
• reanalysis-of-that-nobel-prizewinning-study-of-patents-and-innovation
  
• survey-statistics-individualism-doesnt-work
  
• skew
  
•  was-admiral-poindexter-a-terrorist-whos-in-charge-of-your-prediction-market
• Freakometrics on a three pillar governance framework for fair insurance pricing
• statschat on briefly
• Kaiser Fung on peak-social-media-depends-on-how-you-measure-it

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• David Runciman on down-the-rabbit-hole Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on the-loneliness-of-sonia-and-sunny-by-kiran-desai , surviving-rome-the-economic-lives-of-the-ninety-percent , why-live-how-suicide-becomes-an-epidemic, what-ive-been-reading
• skeptical science on new-book-climate-obstruction-a-global-assessment

Vox Wonk

• missing-link-why-economic-policy-needs-organisational-economics 
  
• what-money-will-become-seven-key-questions 
  
• why-export-controls-accelerate-innovation-evidence-2007-us-china-rule
  
• geopolitical-tensions-and-international-financial-fragmentation-28th-geneva-report
  
• trumps-tariffs-fiscal-folly
  
• impact-fintech-lending
  
• details-matter-how-loan-pricing-affects-monetary-policy-transmission-euro-area
  
• sustained-growth-through-creative-destruction-nobel-laureates-philippe-aghion-and
  
• speaking-debt-framing-guilt-and-economic-choices
  
• confusopoly-unveiled-how-firms-use-complexity-raise-prices
  

Sport

 I need to focus on something other than economics or politics today moresson because it is going to be stinking hot today in Sydaneee!

Football

The socceroos are going reasonably well. The two games against Canada and the USA  showed we can win ugly but we still have weaknesses in central defence. I am not too worried here as we ddo  have people injured. I do not expect Geria to be there when everyone is fully ffit indeed I do not understand why he was picked anyway.

However we look good for fullbacks and the midfield. Also the youngsters look good up front. fingers crossed there are no injuries and the youngsters keep on improving in time for the world cup.

Ange

Ange was coaching Nottingham Forest for a short while before getting sacked. This never made sense. Ange's teams have always taken time to get used to what he wanted the team to play. Spurs was the only exception.  NT played a style before ANge which was almost the total opposite to what Ange coaches. The owner clearly either did no due diligence and/or does not understand football.

However Ange should have never accepted the job. Both for the reasons above and it was too soon after the spurs sacking. Given both sacking he does not have to work again but he will because he has to prove himself. The next team has to be compatible with his style of coaching.

Cricket

The news Cummins will miss the first test is grim for Australia. He is easily the best bowler we have. Yes Boland is a respectable replacement BUT our attack now has the youngest bowler at 34! Most of them susceptible to injury. All have lost speed and have yet to show they know how to bowl to batsmen  going 'bazball'. I am also wary of fast bowlers who still think they are quick being belted bowling short attempting show they have not lost pace.

All of our bowlers show weaknesses against bowlers who can get to 90 mph or higher. When Smith got hit at  Lords Archer was at only 94 mph.

On the other hand the Pommy's fast bowlers are injury prone and lose pace after their first test!

Intriguing

some various things

 Gaza

Two   members of the IDF were allegedly killed by Hams so the IDF bombed parts of Gaza city killing about 40 people. In a nutshell this shows the immorality of the situation. Hamas commits a crime so palestinians are collectively punished. This is a war crime. Palestinians have no love for Hamas. Israel has killed over 70k of them since the massacre on October 7. Gaza as a whole is rubble. Yes they hate in general Israel because of all of  this but they want peace a nd somewhere to live and the services that go with it.

Why does Israel do this. Three reasons. 

1. Revenge
2. Hate
3. They have no idea of how to kill Hamas personnel without killing innocent Palestinians.

This in turn leads to palestinians hating Israelis. This is not a vicious circle but an evil circle

Ukraine

Trump now wants Zelensky to accept russia holding the donbas region. This won't be accepted by russia but it rewards the aggressor. See the excellent Mick Ryan for a good article on that region.

Albo meets Trump

Well at least he wasn't ambushed like Zelensky or the SA leader however since the USA needs our critical minerals and rare earths perhaps he should have insuited on some tariffs being lowered. Trump does not like rudd. big deal. Rudd's job is to deal mainly with congress and whitehouse aides not Trump.

Sussan Ley

She wants fiscal consolidation which is good but di not specify what spending would be cut. Not good. Sha also said she would be offering tax cuts next election. huh. you can have tax cuts or you can have fiscal consolidation but you cannot have both,

Perhaps I should have added if you are going to offer tax cuts which will be expensive you should already know most places you are going to cut. 

US politics

I find this weird. Polls show that the punters blame the republicans for the congress shutdown and have also shown they are worried about health care premiums. People are now getting invoices to pay for next year and they are wildly expensive. This can only help the democrats but trump and his cultists seem to ignore this  perhaps at their peril.

Barnaby Joyce

 Barnaby Joyce is in the news again. I pretty much agree with what michelle grattan has written.

I anm no fan of Joyce. i always thought him over-rates as a retail politician and always thought him a fraud.

The National party vote has essentially remained the same whether he was leader or not. on various issues he has championed he hasn't moved the electorate at all.

He started to wear a  large 'cowboy' hat and show off using a whip to try and portray himself as a farmer. He never was. He was an accountant in a regional city. He di not seek out farmers as clients nor did he give a discount to farmers if they became clients.

So we come to now. joyce does not seem to realise he is over the hill. He wants to be on the front bench but won't say whom he should replace. He is very big on being very anti net zero. Just on this he apparently has no idea on how expensive coal powered stations are nor understands how  unreliable they are!

One party has surged in the polls since the election BUT at the expense of the Liberal party not the ALP. Their leader is 71 and looks older. They do not have a lot of people on the ground to hand out leaflets come voting day so it is very unlikely they could replace the Liberal party. Moreover they only appeal to a small subset of the electorate.

If Joyce is going to One Nation he should be wary there are more internal fights there than I have had hot dinners. He might succeed Hanson but he also could eventually have a war with her!

Rhapsody on a theme from Paganini

I confess I find this possibly my favourite classical piece

 

Around the Traps 17/10/25

 it is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Carolyn Holbrook and Thomas Kehoe on how-gambling-companies-are-copying-the-big-tobacco-playbook-in-australian-sport
• Khalid Koser and Lilla Schumicky-Logan on australia-s-quiet-returnees-syria-are-fact-loud-warning
• Kevin Bonham on yes-federal-parliament-should-be-expanded
• John Quiggin on the-natural-party-of-government-2 , if-government-bailouts-of-companies-are-the-new-normal-we-need-a-better-strategic-vision
• Hugh Piper on liberal-party-s-coming-foreign-policy-split ,australia-should-heed-britain-s-tough-choices-its-mistakes
• Kiriloi Ingram on australias-isis-brides-have-returned-governments-can-do-better-at-handling-this-situation
• Natalie Peng on the-governments-super-retreat-fixes-some-design-flaws-but-creates-a-new-distortion
• Rhys Kapton-Lonsdale on the-first-australian-war-crimes-case-in-30-years-is-going-to-trial-it-raises-big-questions 
• Greg Jericho on usa-economy-trump-effect-imf-economic-outlook-australian-tourists-avoiding
• Jeff Borland on what-a-surprise-spike-in-the-unemployment-rate-means-for-interest-rates-and-the-economy
• Stephen Grenville on trump-wants-our-rare-earths-minerals-we-should-keep-selling-china-too

OZ climate

• wind-and-solar-smash-grid-market-share-records-even-after-heavy-curtailment-coal-at-new-low
  
• queenslands-bizarre-coal-keeper-matrix-slams-the-door-on-renewables-and-everyone-will-pay-the-price 
  
• hard-to-defend-snowy-says-line-upgrades-for-super-battery-hit-its-bidding-strategy
  
• australias-biggest-battery-project-is-about-to-get-a-lot-bigger-and-will-be-first-to-1-gw-and-5-gwh 
  
• ombudsman-says-transmission-projects-plagued-by-lack-of-trust-in-local-communities 
  
• researchers-says-doping-with-calcium-could-solve-sodium-ion-battery-stability-issues 
  
• gas-and-high-coal-penetration-are-the-drivers-of-expensive-volatile-power-prices 
  
• port-augustas-new-solar-tower-power-project-clever-engineering-but-is-it-a-decade-too-late
  
• households-will-lead-transition-with-pv-batteries-and-evs-but-the-grid-still-needs-a-carbon-price
  
• we-can-do-this-rio-tintos-rapid-switch-to-renewables-shines-path-for-quick-exit-from-coal
  
• victoria-hits-record-levels-of-wind-and-solar-curtailment-and-then-two-more-coal-generators-trip
  
• Mark the Graph on the-fragile-promise-of-net-zero-grid , measured-consideration
• Adam Morton on australias-household-energy-bills-will-halve-by-2050-modelling-suggests , queenslands-pandering-to-climate-deniers-is-making-it-even-tougher-for-albanese-to-drive-down-emissions
• Sarah Perkins-Fitzpatrick et al on for-the-first-time-we-linked-a-new-fossil-fuel-project-to-hundreds-of-deaths-heres-the-impact-of-woodsides-scarborough-gas-project
• Johanna Lim on power-hungry-data-centres-threaten-australias-energy-grid-here-are-3-steps-to-make-them-more-efficient
• Graham Readfearn on queensland-anti-renewables-group-cited-nonexistent-papers-in-inquiry-submissions-using-ai-publisher-says

Northern America

• Julian Sanchez on ice-dhs-violence-immigration-crackdown-deportations
• Ray Brescia on letitia-james-indictment-jury-trump-enemies
• institutional economics on relitigating-fed-policy
• the conversable economist on some-economics-of-us-biofuels , is-the-safety-margin-of-us-treasury-bonds-diminishing
• Emma Shortis on trumps-tragedy-the-us-becomes-an-autocracy-and-the-presidency-a-dictatorship
• Caitlin Dickerson on ice-threatens-immigration-activists-chicago
• Brad De Long on steady-data-shaky-narratives
• Kruggers on technology-bubbles-causes-and-consequences , how-trump-is-making-china-great , how-crypto-became-a-trump-trade , china-has-overtaken-america , america-first-no-billionaire-buddies
• noahopinion on americas-future-could-hinge-on-whether-AI-slightly-disappoints
• Sean Illing on barbara-walter-charlie-kirk-gray-area-violence
• Ruth Marcus on the-indictment-of-letitia-james-and-the-collapse-of-impartial-justice
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-american-democracy-u-turns
• Max Flugrath on supreme-court-republicans-congress-trump-voting-rights-act
• Dahlia Lithwick on what-happens-trump-military-unlawful-order
• David Frum on charles-moore-margaret-thatcher
• Jonathan Chait on trump-political-prosecution-democrats
• Christian Paz on cbp-social-viral-ice-videos-right-wing-america-immigration-authoritarian
• Mark Stern on democrats-congress-election-odd-scotus-supreme-court
• Geraldo Cadava on the-conflict-on-the-streets-of-chicago
• Carol Leonnig et al on trumps-doj-punitive-firings-public-scoldings-pressure-prosecute-foes
• public notice on comey-halligan
• Nicole Foy on immigration-dhs-american-citizens-arrested-detained-against-will

Europe

• Maria Farrell on delighted-to-be-proved-wrong
• Brad De Long on kyiv-and-muscovy-rus-today
• Christia Kostov on russias-permanent-test-is-pushing-europe-to-the-brink-of-war-heres-what-moscow-actually-wants
• Monique Taylor on europe-s-strangest-border-crossing-saatse-boot-slice-russia-estonia

Asia

• noahopinion on can-anything-knock-china-off-its-mountain
• Maria Sosnowski on the-gaza-ceasefire-deal-could-be-a-strangle-contract-with-israel-holding-all-the-cards
• Asif Siniver on how-donald-trumps-dead-cat-diplomacy-may-have-changed-the-course-of-the-gaza-war
• Julian Frankel on these-numbers-show-how-two-years-of-war-have-devastated-palestinian-lives-in-gaza
• Andrew Thomas on will-trumps-ceasefire-plan-really-lead-to-lasting-peace-in-the-middle-east-theres-still-a-long-way-to-go
• Dale Pankhurst on hamas-at-a-crossroads-as-the-gaza-ceasefire-deal-comes-into-force
• Eyal Mayroz on on-a-grim-anniversary-an-end-to-gazas-violence-is-suddenly-clear-if-both-sides-can-make-sacrifices
• Lester Munston on trumps-shock-and-awe-foreign-policy-achieved-a-breakthrough-in-gaza-but-is-it-sustainable
• Tim Hornyak on japan-s-iron-lady-faces-fractured-political-landscape
• Joshua Keating on israel-hamas-deal-peace-ceasefire-hostages
• Graeme Wood on ceasefire-hostages-israel-gaza
• Martin Kear on hamas-is-battling-powerful-clans-for-control-in-gaza-who-are-these-groups-and-what-threat-do-they-pose
• David Dunn on egypt-peace-summit-showed-that-donald-trumps-gaza-deal-is-more-showbiz-extravaganza-than-the-dawn-of-a-new-middle-east
• Saam Roggeveen on the-asian-century 
• Naveen Khan on enduring-danger-zawahiri-s-vision
• Andrew Prokop on israel-gaza-ceasefire-trump-netanyahu-hamas-hostages
• Mohammed Mhawish on gazas-broken-politics
• John Tooley on with-83-of-its-buildings-destroyed-gaza-needs-more-than-money-to-rebuild
• Gwyn McCelland on as-gaza-starts-to-rebuild-what-lessons-can-be-learned-from-nagasaki-in-1945
• Zack Beauchamp on gaza-ceasefire-october-netanyahu-peace-last
• Fred Kaplan on israel-gaza-ceasefire-trump-biden-middle-east
• home and away on special-edition-free-at-last

Wonk

• global inequality on defeated-by-the-real-world Thanks Nick
• the shadowed archive on an-existential-guide-to-making-friends Thanks Nick
• Dan Shipper on seeing-like-a-language-model Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on what-matters-for-central-banks , nobel-prize-in-economics-goes-to-philippe-aghion-and-peter-howitt , democracy-and-capitalism-are-mutually-reinforcing
• the conversable economist on a-nobel-for-the-economics-of-technology-aghion-howitt-and-mokyr
• noahopinion on a-nobel-for-thinking-about-long-term-growth , at-least-five-interesting-things
• David Smilde on maria-corina-machados-peace-prize-follows-nobel-tradition-of-awarding-recipients-for-complex-reasons
• Mark the Graph on anchoring-cycle-why-independent-central-banks-matter , the-weekend-that-shook-crypto
• Brad De Long on the-chaos-monkeys-flying-down-to-buenos aires
• Peter Edwell on israelis-are-hailing-trump-as-cyrus-returned-but-who-was-cyrus-the-great-anyway
• Myra Williamson on a-landmark-conviction-for-war-crimes-in-sudan-shows-the-wheels-of-global-justice-do-turn-albeit-slowly
• Jersey Lee and Andrew Goledzinowski on rare-earth-showdown-why-west-must-learn-pick-winners-partners
• Luke Hartigan on the-price-of-gold-is-skyrocketing-why-is-this-and-will-it-continue
• Sunaina Kumar on who-will-salvage-sdgs-western-donors-retreat
• Suzanne Schneider on from-the-cesspool-to-the-mainstream-hayeks-bastards-slobodian
• Jeet Heer on trump-nobel-peace-prize-maria-corina-machado
• Lisa Herzog on does-forward-still-make-sense-a-hypothesis-on-protest

General

• Tim Harford on the-relentless-rule-of-my-fitness-tracker

Climate

• moyhu on september-global-surface-templs-up-0051-from-august
• real climate on high-resolution-fingerprint-images-reveal-a-weakening-atlantic-ocean-circulation-amoc
• Matt McDonald on why-trump-is-not-a-death-knell-for-global-climate-action
• skeptical science on most-world-recently-set-heat-records , fact-brief-greenhouse , new_research
• Hamish Clarke on the-climate-crisis-is-fuelling-extreme-fires-across-the-planet
• ocean acidification on warming-but-not-acidification-increases-metabolism-and-reduces-growth-of-redfish-sebastes-fasciatus-in-the-gulf-of-st-lawrence-2 , mapping-the-safe-operating-space-of-marine-ecosystems-under-contrasting-emission-pathways
• David Appell on 2025-will-likely-be-third-warmest-year , chinese-vs-us-wind

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• 7-reasons-to-use-bayesian-inference
  
• this-is-what-a-degree-in-cannabis-studies-will-get-ya
  
• stockholm-syndrome 
  
• survey-statistics-mrpw
  
• questions-about-statistical-claims-in-paper-from-recent-nobel-prize-winners
• separating-the-whack-from-the-chaff-in-critiques-of-decision-theory
  
• freakometrics on  linear risk on networks , parity

Diane Coyle  (quirky + book reviews)

• the peoples AI
• Tyler Cowen on ian-smiths-memoir-bitter-harvest-the-great-betrayal
• Andrew Gelman on the-impossible-man-patchen-barsss-biography-of-roger-penrose

Vox Wonk

• integrating-pollution-registers-corporate-climate-risk-assessment
  
•  how-firms-respond-import-competition-labour-force-reduction-productindustry-switching 
• quiet-engine-progress-scholar-networks-industrial-revolution 
  
• bilateral-trade-services-new-research-database
  
• hidden-growth-us-manufacturing-productivity
  
• great-divergence-and-great-reversal-new-approach-global-economic-history
  
• bank-specialisation-and-transmission-euro-area-monetary-policy 
  
• new-curse-critical-minerals 
  
• conditional-budgeting-striking-balance-eu-economic-governance
  
• decoupling-without-deglobalisation-new-geography-trade-blocs
  
• ai-bubbles-and-crashes
  

electricity

 Mark the Graph had two articles on this HERE and HERE.

Ray Wills says we won't get lower prices until renewables are over 50%.

I might also add Adam Morton on what is occurring in Queensland.

A few things.

• Coal powered power stations are unreliable. Their units break down regularly. This is one of the reasons we had so many of them before privatisation. Nifty Wran was livid when he was told! This problem gets worse as the temperature rises. Also baseload power is incompatible with the market dominated by public companies. Baseload power is also incompatible with solar panels on house roofs, The solar duck curve everyone.
• Gas can only be part of the answer if the domestic price of gas is a lot lower alah WA otherwise they constantly push prices up.
• I constantly hear people say what about when the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow. This ignores two things. firstly history shows as the CSIRO showed sometime ago this rarely occurs. The reason I assume is because the sun is shining where some solar panels are and where the wind isn't blowing. Think of it as not putting all your solar panels and wind turbines in the same basket.
• Batteries and getting bigger and bigger, They are dispatchable. Add in pumped hydro and you have firming
• Batteries in houses will also change things. The peak in electricity demand has gone from around noon to 6 pm. Moreover demand is lower at peak times. Batteries will further move both the time and the supply needed. 
• I do note a lot of the objections to new solar and wind farms come from people whol ive nowhere near the proposed farms.
• Solar panels are great for sheep farmers. The farmers get rent and the condensation makes for good grass and thus great wool.

We need to get a move on and maybe even ignore protests from people who live nowhere near any proposed projects.

Some observations on US politics

 Trump is below water on immigration.I have written about this before but it needs repeating. Most people agree that harderen criminals who are not US citizens should be deported. However ICE is mostly arresting people who are in effect model citizens. Indeed a lot of people are being arrested when leaving immigration courts for simply doing the right thing. Add to that the masking of ICE agents together with no identification. It is also important to note there is undoubtedly a lack of training thus a lot of ICE agents make a lot of mistakes and thus lie about proposed arrests. CCTV has not been their friend in their allegations.

The major problem here is the more people you attempt to arrest and deport the more contractionary it is for the economy. Wages will also rise.

We have also seen two indictments where the line prosecutors refused to participate. most people with legal expertise believe neither case will go to a jury indeed it is quite possible the attorney who had no experience with grand juries did not do it properly. The DOJ simply has little credibility these days. discovery in both cases will show the arguments why seasoned prosecutors di not seek indictments. 

We have seen judges , one appointed by trump, essentially say the government is lying about what has occurred in certain cities. This again will have future implications for the DOJ quite severe ones at that.

Republicans are trying to gerrymander seats allocated for the house so they do not lose control of the house even if they lose the vote. This can backfire. If you change seats simly on 2024 voting patterns and people change as they usually do in mid-term elections then suddenly seats which you thought  were 'safe' suddenly are lost because the margins had to be thin.The texas changes show this in spades

Gotta go now.

The day after

 Stopping the war was the easy part once 'pressure' was put on Israel.

Now comes the hard part.

Those Israeli prisoners get the best deal. Israeli hospitals and medical personnel have experience in dealing with Israelis captured by hamas but eventually released. It will be hard but they have the support to get on with life. They need  it and deserve it.

On the other hand palestinians have a very hard road to hoe. Most buildings are rubble. All the hospitals have been attacked and either have to be rebuilt or have to have severe repairs done. In other words services are severely restrained. Just think of all those children who would have PSTD for example. how and who will help them.

Aid is only slowly getting through. Just remember it takes time to get over starvation conditions. You are not immediately cured simply by starting to eat more so when the food and water is rationed. 

Who is going to fund building in Gaza when Israelis could bomb it at any time.

And remember the West Bank. What happens if the Israeli government starts to take more property from palestinians? will Trump intervene? I very much doubt it.

I doubt if many Arab countries will want to volunteer soldiers when they sssshall be viewed as simply supporting Israel.

If Israel is fair dinkum then they should release Marwan Barghouti who was gaoled on highly dubious charges. He is the only palestinian who has the credibility to be leader

I could go on but you get the point.

Peace in Gaza?

 first let us get one thing right. There was never a war in Gaza. Palestinians do not have an army. 

The IDF's only strategy it appears was to kill as many hams personnel as possible and it didn't matter how many innocent palestinians got killed in the process. Trump gave the game away when he said  58k of Hamas had been killed so far. It is interesting whilst world wide opinion have drifted away from Israel following this strategy together with the genocide the Us republicans have stood fim.

Why has the plan come around and been accepted?

Three reasons

1. The Israel bombing in Qatar showed Israel had gone completely bonkers and Arab town and others were very worried. Iran was no longer the country to worry about Israel was
2. Trump's business interest in arab town led trump to put Israel in its place. He was ready now tol isten to them and act. 
3. The recognition of Palestine by key Western nations who were friends of Israel showed the winds were changing

Lots of problems still. What arab country would want to put troops into Gaza only to be seen as protecting Israel's interest. Will aid be allowed in and aid that is not restricted? Who is going to rebuild Gaza? Will medical personnel be freed and hospitals be able to operate ( no pun intended). Wil journalists be allowed in to report on the carnage?

Oh the irony. The plan is merely a variation of the biden plan rejected by both Israel and Hamas.

Whoopsy I should have added nominations closed for the overrated nobel peace prize BEFORE Trump took office

Wishbone Ash

 A long time ago, I might even have been a teenager I listed to their double live album in a record store and loved it.

See if you do.

Around the Traps 10/10/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ama Samarasinghe on how-do-banks-assess-you-for-a-home-loan-and-how-do-you-work-out-what-you-can-afford
• Ross Gittins on reserve-bank-is-helping-make-home-ownership-unaffordable
• Dennis Wesselbaum on nicola-willis-is-right-nzs-economy-isnt-as-bad-as-the-merchants-of-misery-claim
• Amit Arora and Arosha Weerakoon on some-towns-are-cutting-fluoride-from-water-supplies-heres-what-this-means-for-locals-teeth
• Jason Weismueller on people-trust-podcasts-more-than-social-media-but-is-the-trust-warranted
• Greg Jericho on more-equal-society-we-need-more-tax-only-works-when-big-business-pays-fair-share
• William Partlett on australias-anti-corruption-commissioner-has-a-trust-problem-he-needs-to-change-course-to-fix-it
• Dereck Wilding on the-australian-media-is-more-concentrated-than-ever-here-are-the-3-moments-that-got-us-here

OZ Climate

• construction-starts-on-australias-most-expensive-transmission-project-to-connect-snowy
  
• first-of-two-chimney-stacks-marking-one-of-oldest-fossil-fuel-generators-dismantled-piece-by-piece
  
• two-shifting-coal-units-are-being-turned-off-as-they-dance-around-rooftop-solar-in-new-normal-for-the-grid
  
• snowy-2-0-fiasco-deja-vu-all-over-again-for-the-umpteenth-time
  
• biggest-solar-hybrid-project-in-nsw-gets-planning-approval-despite-host-of-long-distance-objectors
  
• snowy-2-0-energy-storage-for-one-cent-per-person-per-day
  
• act-went-first-and-fastest-to-100-per-cent-renewables-it-now-looks-like-the-smartest-policy-of-all
  
• ipc-gives-rapid-approval-to-giant-four-hour-battery-after-long-distance-objectors-force-referral
  
• queensland-lnp-to-keep-ageing-coal-clunkers-online-for-decades-signals-effective-stop-to-new-wind-and-solar
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-injects-its-full-capacity-into-grid-for-first-time-as-it-nears-commissioning
  
• Graham Readfearn on media-political-attacks-australia-emissions-target-climate-obstruction-playbook-newscorp-business-council
• Johanna Nalau on extreme-weather-now-costs-australians-4-5b-a-year-better-insurance-options-and-loans-would-help-us-adapt
• Bruce Mountain on snowy-2-0-cost-blowouts-might-be-ok-if-the-scheme-stored-power-more-cheaply-than-batteries-but-it-wont
• Hannah Seligman on intense-rain-landslides-and-potholes-everywhere-how-climate-change-is-trashing-australias-roads

Northern America

• institutional economics on the-collapse-of-us-grand-strategy
• Brad De Long on the-ongoing-trumpist-unmaking-of-american-power , for-a-normal-us-government-to-shoulder-credit-risk
• Kruggers on state-terror-american-style ,why-arent-we-partying-like-its-1999 , ingots-we-trust , bailing-out-bessents-buddies-bets , leprechauns-effective-tariffs-and-inflation
• Fred Kaplan on trump-news-hegseth-military-venezuela-enemy-within
• Tyler Cowen on the-unraveling-of-obamacare , black-veterans-and-civil-rights-after-world-war-i
• Eric Kramer on tyler-cowens-no-good-very-bad-post-on-affordable-care-act-subsidies
• Jordan Rubin on kilmar-abrego-garcia-trump-vindictive-prosecutions-comey-mciver
• noahopinion on the-us-political-situation
• Quinta Jurecic on chicago-portland-national-guard-crime
• Christian Paz on coalition-trump-voters-turning-against-him-2024-midterm-2026
• Jeet Heer on stephen-miller-elon-musk-judge-tweet
• Richard Hasen on supreme-court-voting-rights-redistricting-roberts
• David Bier on ice-agents-assaults-deportations-trump-biden
• Cassandra Robertson on james-comeys-indictment-is-a-trademark-tactic-of-authoritarians
• Graham Dodds on the-supreme-court-is-headed-toward-a-radically-new-vision-of-unlimited-presidential-power
• Joshua Keating on israel-hamas-deal-peace-ceasefire-hostages
• Joseph Blocher and Brandon Garrett on supreme-court-alternative-facts-brett-kavanaugh
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-retribution-comey-chicago
• Jeffrey Rosen on shays-rebellion-hamilton-jefferson-political-ideologies
• Joel Eissenberg on autism-incidence-vs-autism-diagnosis
• Paul Waldmann on trump-war-antifa-portland
• Andrew Prokop on trump-letitia-james-stephen-miller-soros-actblue-indivisible-retribution
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-secret-police-ice-chicago-national-guard-lawsuit

Europe

• Felix Martin on uk-struggles-escape-rule-goodharts-law Thanks Nick
• astral codex ten on your-review-the-russo-ukrainian-war Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on turkiyes-homemade-crises
• Laura Gozzi and Hugh Schofield on france in fresh political crisis
• David Lees on frances-latest-prime-minister-has-resigned-after-less-than-a-month-what-will-emmanuel-macron-do-now
• Robert Worth on ukraine-russia-drone-war-attrition
• Grant Wyeth on return-landmines-marks-darker-era-europe-world
• Julia Simon on spain-blackout-misinformation-renewable-energy
• Maria Farrell on delighted-to-be-proved-wrong

Asia

• Martin Kear on hamas-and-israel-are-on-the-verge-of-a-ceasefire-whats-being-left-unsaid-though-could-scupper-the-deal
• Hilman Palaon on prabowo-s-policies-won-t-fix-indonesia-s-problems
• Eyal Mayroz on on-a-grim-anniversary-an-end-to-gazas-violence-is-suddenly-clear-if-both-sides-can-make-sacrifices
• Tan Hui on can-japan-s-first-female-pm-escape-revolving-door
• Seong-Hyon Lee on great-omission-clarifying-statement-north-korea-s-nukes 
• Julien Oeuillet on taiwan-s-main-threat-isn-t-military-it-s-media-speculation
• Cameron Peters on israel-gaza-peace-plan-trump-hostages-hamas
• home and away on special-edition-two-years-after-october
• Sebastian Maslow on is-sanae-takaichi-japans-margaret-thatcher-or-its-next-liz-truss
• Melanie O'Brien on why-are-the-icj-and-icc-cases-on-israel-and-gaza-taking-so-long
• Joshua Keating on netanyahu-political-survival-war
• David Remnick on israels-zones-of-denial
• Saima Afzal on pakistan-s-pasni-port-pitch-washington-can-reshape-regional-rivalries-china-india
• noahopinion on malaysia-truly-asia
• Scott Lucas on israel-and-hamas-agree-ceasefire-deal-what-we-know-so-far-expert-qanda
• Michael Toole on child-famine-has-reached-the-highest-level-in-gaza-with-tens-of-thousands-of-kids-affected-new-study
• Cameron Peters and Zack Beauchamp on gaza-ceasefire-israel-hamas-trump-qatar-netanyahu
• Fred Kaplan on trump-netanyahu-israel-gaza-ceasefire-qatar-attack-explained

Wonk

• Brad De Long on abstraction-layers-in-arithmetic-and-elsewhere
• uncharted territories on why warm counties are poorer Thanks Nick
• disha on editorial-silence-is-an-unfair-burden-on-early-career-and-marginalised-researchers Thanks Nick
• Juan Caceres on when-democracies-override-their-own-courts-australia-s-dangerous-precedent
• Tim Harford on if-ai-lifts-off-will-living-standards-follow
• noahopinion on why-do-people-get-paid-to-invest-their-money
• Kruggers on tech-and-the-wealth-of-nations
• Melanie O'Brien on why-are-the-icj-and-icc-cases-on-israel-and-gaza-taking-so-long
• Peter Turchin on end-times-crisis-history-lessons-cliodynamics-collase-society
• Tyler Cowen on thiel-and-wolfe-on-the-antichrist-in-literature , share-repurchases-do-not-discourage-investment
• Mark the Graph on echoes-of-euphoria-dot-com-bubble-and-the-AI-boom
• the conversable economist on when-george-dantzig-optimized-his-personal-diet-problem
• Guido Junior on these-4-aeroplane-failures-are-more-common-than-you-think-and-not-as-scary-as-they-sound
• Peter Edwell on trump-on-a-coin-when-julius-caesar-tried-that-the-roman-republic-crumbled-soon-after
• Adam Varian on sustainability-matters-when-economic-shocks-hit

General

• Maria Guagnin et al on 12-000-year-old-rock-art-marked-ancient-water-sources-in-arabias-desert
• Ian Towle and Luca Fiorenza on toothpick-grooves-in-ancient-fossil-human-teeth-may-not-be-from-toothpicks-after-all
• Laura McKemmish on mysterious-molecule-found-on-brown-dwarf-casts-further-doubt-on-potential-signs-of-life-on-venus
• graphomane on say-it-dont-show-it Thanks Brad
• Constance Grady on mansfield-park-jane-austen-empire-slavery-abolition-edward-said

Climate

• John Quiggin on paper-reactors-and-paper-tigers Thanks Nick
• David Appell on antarctica-sea-ice-width-is-decreasing
• and Then Theres Physics on emergence-vs-detection-attribution
• Jillian Ambrose on global-renewable-energy-generation-surpasses-coal-first-time
• skeptical science on fact-brief-gore , new_research
• Reihana Mohideen on renewables-have-now-passed-coal-globally-and-growth-is-fastest-in-countries-like-bhutan-and-nepal
• ocean acidification on climate-change-and-its-effects-on-fish-growth-and-physiology , global-meta-analysis-reveals-the-impacts-of-ocean-warming-and-acidification-on-kelps

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• its-a-jax-jax-jax-jax-world
  
• uncanny-academic-valley-brian-wansink-as-proto-chatbot
• when-rich-people-believe-or-pretend-to-believe-stupid-things
  
• working-paper-historical-american-political-finance-data-at-the-national-archives
  
• survey-statistics-struggles-with-equivalent-weights
  
• selection-bias-in-junk-science
  
• prior-distributions-for-regression-coefficients-2
  
• the-worst-papers-ive-ever-written
  
• columbia-fake-u-s-news-statistics-update-they-paid-9-million-and-are-still-bizarrely-refusing-to-admit-misreporting-of-data-even-though-everybody-knows-they-misreported-data
  
• Freakometrics on are big data changing the game

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• when-an-old-textbook-is-still-the-best-on-digital-economics
  
• Bred De Long on reading-henry-luce-1941-the-american-century
• Martin Kear on a-short-history-of-the-gaza-strip-takes-a-long-view-of-todays-conflict

vox wonk

• communicating-monetary-policy-committee-echoes-move-markets 
  
• double-edged-sword-ai-potential-productivity-solutions-and-societal-risks
  
• intangible-capital-france-and-germany-measurement-issues-and-their-impact
  
• bank-climate-commitments-and-green-lending-emerging-markets
  
• enormous-economic-burden-age-related-diseases-south-america
  
• rational-inattention-and-information-provision-experiments