Noah Smith writing on his substack noahpinion ( get it) writes a really thoughtful column.
A great read on a monday morning
Noah Smith writing on his substack noahpinion ( get it) writes a really thoughtful column.
A great read on a monday morning
If you have never been to the Opera then try La Boheme. Fantastic arias and duets.
Surely this is the greatest aria ever written
It is time again for Around the Traps.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
OZ Climate
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk
I need to focus on something other than economics or politics today moresson because it is going to be stinking hot today in Sydaneee!
Football
The socceroos are going reasonably well. The two games against Canada and the USA showed we can win ugly but we still have weaknesses in central defence. I am not too worried here as we ddo have people injured. I do not expect Geria to be there when everyone is fully ffit indeed I do not understand why he was picked anyway.
However we look good for fullbacks and the midfield. Also the youngsters look good up front. fingers crossed there are no injuries and the youngsters keep on improving in time for the world cup.
Ange
Ange was coaching Nottingham Forest for a short while before getting sacked. This never made sense. Ange's teams have always taken time to get used to what he wanted the team to play. Spurs was the only exception. NT played a style before ANge which was almost the total opposite to what Ange coaches. The owner clearly either did no due diligence and/or does not understand football.
However Ange should have never accepted the job. Both for the reasons above and it was too soon after the spurs sacking. Given both sacking he does not have to work again but he will because he has to prove himself. The next team has to be compatible with his style of coaching.
Cricket
The news Cummins will miss the first test is grim for Australia. He is easily the best bowler we have. Yes Boland is a respectable replacement BUT our attack now has the youngest bowler at 34! Most of them susceptible to injury. All have lost speed and have yet to show they know how to bowl to batsmen going 'bazball'. I am also wary of fast bowlers who still think they are quick being belted bowling short attempting show they have not lost pace.
All of our bowlers show weaknesses against bowlers who can get to 90 mph or higher. When Smith got hit at Lords Archer was at only 94 mph.
On the other hand the Pommy's fast bowlers are injury prone and lose pace after their first test!
Intriguing
Gaza
Two members of the IDF were allegedly killed by Hams so the IDF bombed parts of Gaza city killing about 40 people. In a nutshell this shows the immorality of the situation. Hamas commits a crime so palestinians are collectively punished. This is a war crime. Palestinians have no love for Hamas. Israel has killed over 70k of them since the massacre on October 7. Gaza as a whole is rubble. Yes they hate in general Israel because of all of this but they want peace a nd somewhere to live and the services that go with it.
Why does Israel do this. Three reasons.
Barnaby Joyce is in the news again. I pretty much agree with what michelle grattan has written.
I anm no fan of Joyce. i always thought him over-rates as a retail politician and always thought him a fraud.
The National party vote has essentially remained the same whether he was leader or not. on various issues he has championed he hasn't moved the electorate at all.
He started to wear a large 'cowboy' hat and show off using a whip to try and portray himself as a farmer. He never was. He was an accountant in a regional city. He di not seek out farmers as clients nor did he give a discount to farmers if they became clients.
So we come to now. joyce does not seem to realise he is over the hill. He wants to be on the front bench but won't say whom he should replace. He is very big on being very anti net zero. Just on this he apparently has no idea on how expensive coal powered stations are nor understands how unreliable they are!
One party has surged in the polls since the election BUT at the expense of the Liberal party not the ALP. Their leader is 71 and looks older. They do not have a lot of people on the ground to hand out leaflets come voting day so it is very unlikely they could replace the Liberal party. Moreover they only appeal to a small subset of the electorate.
If Joyce is going to One Nation he should be wary there are more internal fights there than I have had hot dinners. He might succeed Hanson but he also could eventually have a war with her!
it is time again for Around the Traps.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
OZ climate
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Diane Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk
Mark the Graph had two articles on this HERE and HERE.
Ray Wills says we won't get lower prices until renewables are over 50%.
I might also add Adam Morton on what is occurring in Queensland.
A few things.
Trump is below water on immigration.I have written about this before but it needs repeating. Most people agree that harderen criminals who are not US citizens should be deported. However ICE is mostly arresting people who are in effect model citizens. Indeed a lot of people are being arrested when leaving immigration courts for simply doing the right thing. Add to that the masking of ICE agents together with no identification. It is also important to note there is undoubtedly a lack of training thus a lot of ICE agents make a lot of mistakes and thus lie about proposed arrests. CCTV has not been their friend in their allegations.
The major problem here is the more people you attempt to arrest and deport the more contractionary it is for the economy. Wages will also rise.
We have also seen two indictments where the line prosecutors refused to participate. most people with legal expertise believe neither case will go to a jury indeed it is quite possible the attorney who had no experience with grand juries did not do it properly. The DOJ simply has little credibility these days. discovery in both cases will show the arguments why seasoned prosecutors di not seek indictments.
We have seen judges , one appointed by trump, essentially say the government is lying about what has occurred in certain cities. This again will have future implications for the DOJ quite severe ones at that.
Republicans are trying to gerrymander seats allocated for the house so they do not lose control of the house even if they lose the vote. This can backfire. If you change seats simly on 2024 voting patterns and people change as they usually do in mid-term elections then suddenly seats which you thought were 'safe' suddenly are lost because the margins had to be thin.The texas changes show this in spades
Gotta go now.
Stopping the war was the easy part once 'pressure' was put on Israel.
Now comes the hard part.
Those Israeli prisoners get the best deal. Israeli hospitals and medical personnel have experience in dealing with Israelis captured by hamas but eventually released. It will be hard but they have the support to get on with life. They need it and deserve it.
On the other hand palestinians have a very hard road to hoe. Most buildings are rubble. All the hospitals have been attacked and either have to be rebuilt or have to have severe repairs done. In other words services are severely restrained. Just think of all those children who would have PSTD for example. how and who will help them.
Aid is only slowly getting through. Just remember it takes time to get over starvation conditions. You are not immediately cured simply by starting to eat more so when the food and water is rationed.
Who is going to fund building in Gaza when Israelis could bomb it at any time.
And remember the West Bank. What happens if the Israeli government starts to take more property from palestinians? will Trump intervene? I very much doubt it.
I doubt if many Arab countries will want to volunteer soldiers when they sssshall be viewed as simply supporting Israel.
If Israel is fair dinkum then they should release Marwan Barghouti who was gaoled on highly dubious charges. He is the only palestinian who has the credibility to be leader
I could go on but you get the point.
first let us get one thing right. There was never a war in Gaza. Palestinians do not have an army.
The IDF's only strategy it appears was to kill as many hams personnel as possible and it didn't matter how many innocent palestinians got killed in the process. Trump gave the game away when he said 58k of Hamas had been killed so far. It is interesting whilst world wide opinion have drifted away from Israel following this strategy together with the genocide the Us republicans have stood fim.
Why has the plan come around and been accepted?
Three reasons
A long time ago, I might even have been a teenager I listed to their double live album in a record store and loved it.
See if you do.
It is time for Around the Traps again.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
OZ Climate
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
vox wonk