Israel and Iran part 2

 Clearly the Israeli strike against Iran was illegal.

I am also interested that US  intelligence thought Iran was a long way from having nukes  let alone putting them on ballistic missiles.Just remember Netanyahu has claimed for umpteeen years Iran was just about to have nuclear armed missiles. ( Israel is allowed to have them but not Iran apparently.

However I want to look at the record of Iran doing anything to destroy Israel.

Iran clearly armed both Hamas and Hezbollah. Was either able to bring down helicopter gunships like what happened in Afghanistan. NO. Well how about giving either missiles where the weapon can be directed at a specific target. Well again the answer is no. They were given rockets which could go anywhere indeed there were many times Hamas killed their own countrymen because of this.

If you are alleging Iran as a whole wants to destroy Israel this strategy does not make sense.

Just remember rhetoric is not evidence. Action is! To put it another way ever notice all those mullahs who want wood-ducks to kill themselves by killing 'infidels' never do it themselves!

undocumented immigrants and deportations

 Trump has done something remarkable. He is underwater in the polls on both immigration and deportations.

See Kruggers first

As Julius Sumner Miller would say why is this so?

My guess is because most people thought he would only go after 'rapists and murderers etc" even when he said there would be mass deportations. Going after the more obvious criminals would mean  very low deportations as immigrants do not commit many crimes. undocumented criminals even less because they are sent back to their home country after serving their sentence. 

Latinos certainly thought this as they voted for Trump in larger numbers than most thought they would. It is no coincidence we do see a lot of Mexican flags in demonstrations.

MAGA people are economically illiterate. Deporting millions of people would have a drastic effect on the economy. See Menzie Chinn for example. The building industry, agriculture ( wineries in particular), factories and personal child care would be severely affected. note all poor paying which is why undocumented immigrants take those type of jobs.

Trump had gone to and fro on this. He recognises the effect on these industries but must have high figures for political effect. So he comes up with the policy on concentrating on blue states. 

I do not see this as a viable political strategy indeed we may well see a Peter Wilson effect!

the world test championship

 I need to think about something good.

The WTC was indeed a good game of cricket.  Test cricket is by far the most superior form of cricket. This is because we wee and feel the ebbs and flows of the game.

That said a one-off game every year to determine the 'best' test team is highly problematic. We have had three games and only this one was memorable.

I must confess I thought we would easily beat south Africa. They do have a very good bowling attack but their batting lineup was weak. They relied on a few batsman.

Australia obviously thought the same way and selected an unbalanced team with several batsmen batting out of position.

As it was bowlers dominated the first two days with first Rabada and then Cummins showing why they are the best two bowlers in test cricket. ( If Rabada played for england and thus in many more tests he would end up the highest wicktaker in history.)

south Africa were lucky to bat when the qwicket flattened out with Markram playing a great innings. Bavuma again shoed he is a much better batsman when he is captain.

I really enjoyed the match possibly because test cricket is at its best when wickets are tumbling.

something to think about. When SA comes here in twwo seasons time possibly on Cummins will still be bowling at test level!

Israel and Iran

 The attack by Israel on Iran is a defacto declaration of war.

The justification for the attack is that if Iran were able to have up to 9 nuclear bombs Israel would be at risk. I have yet to find anyone across the political spectrum who disputes this but is it correct.

Let us assume Iran gained the capability of 9 nuclear bombs and they were able to arm their missiles to attack Israel with them.

This assumes Iran would be willing to destroy Israel knowing they would be destroyed by Israel's some 200 nukes it possesses.  They would be committing suicide for Iran as a whole simply to wipe Israel off the map.

The major problem with this hypothesis is there is NO evidence for it.  Iran outsources its terrorism. There are few if any instances of Iran people dying in the hope of being with a number of virgins in paradise. It is far more popular with sunnis than shias for reasons I do not understand. There are certainly no mullahs calling for it in Teheran.

This is why possessing a nuclear bomb is usually poor for a country's defence force. It is a purely defensive weapon to be used after another country threatens you. This is why it is called mutually assured destruction.

The very idea this action could mean regime change in Iran is laughable. Are the secret police resigning and 'joining in protests? It is equally laughable any nation would help Israel defend itself after it was the aggressor.

The world had Iran moving towards a non-nuclear future when Iran signed an agreement with the major western counties where Iran would gain in trade as sanctions on the country were eventually abolished. The Iranian people loved this as they voted in a reform government in a landslide as they believed it would lead to a stronger economy. It was Trump that broke that agreement when none of the other countries and nor any of his security agencies saw a problem.

Think about it because this vastly overweight idiot broke an agreement Iran no longer believes the USa in any agreement. The opportunity for Iran to concentrate on butter and not guns is now gone.

Well done!

Around the Traps 13/6/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Saul Eslake on the-widening-wealth-gap-and-what-do-about-it Thanks Nick
• Bernard Keane on hobart-afl-stadium-cost-devils-tasmanian-government-budget-deficit Thanks Nick
• Frank Bongiorno on defections-are-fairly-common-in-australian-politics-but-history-shows-they-are-rarely-a-good-career-move
• Adrian Beaumont on final-counting-shows-polls-understated-labor-in-2025-election-almost-as-much-as-they-overstated-it-in-2019
• Ross Gittins on if-bulldusting-about-productivity-was-productive-wed-all-be-rich , i-have-good-news-and-bad-news-about-your-superannuation
• croaking cassandra on the-orr-story-well-part-of-it-anyway , why-is-neil-quigley-still-rb-board-chair , quigley-orr-and-the-rb-board-edition-number-965
• Greg Jericho on wealthy-australians-are-worried-we-might-realise-how-rigged-the-system-is-in-their-favour
• Mark Beeson on goodbye-to-all-that-rethinking-australias-alliance-with-trumps-america
• Stephen Bartos on hard-to-measure-and-difficult-to-shift-the-governments-big-productivity-challenge
• Nicole Gurran on is-regulation-really-to-blame-for-the-housing-affordability-crisis
• Hugh Piper on australia-s-royal-dilemma-king-charles-serves-conflicting-commonwealth-interests
• John Blaxland on trump-may-try-to-strike-a-deal-with-aukus-review-but-heres-why-he-wont-sink-it

OZ Climate

• offshore-wind-insiders-hope-victorias-auction-will-give-industry-back-its-pep
  
• fear-of-big-battery-fires-is-experiencing-its-own-kind-of-thermal-runaway-is-it-justified
  
• state-blows-away-wind-generation-records-and-hits-a-new-big-battery-high
  
• literally-collapsing-around-workers-ageing-coal-plant-suffers-fresh-unplanned-outage
  
• sydney-can-become-its-own-renewable-energy-zone-take-a-load-off-nsw-regions
  
• the-clean-energy-transition-wont-succeed-without-community-trust-and-were-running-out-of-it
  
• australias-gas-supply-problem-has-a-demand-side-solution-that-would-be-a-win-for-industry-and-consumers
  
• the-technology-is-there-batteries-are-reinventing-the-grid-and-leading-way-to-100-pct-renewables
  
• home-battery-sales-outpace-new-solar-systems-for-first-time-ever-in-sign-of-boom-to-come
  
• the-technology-is-there-batteries-are-reinventing-the-grid-and-leading-way-to-100-pct-renewables
• electricity-market-step-change-will-pay-fast-flexible-technologies-to-smooth-bumpy-grid
  
• Samantha Hepburn on woodsides-north-west-shelf-approval-is-by-no-means-a-one-off-here-are-6-other-giant-gas-projects-to-watch
• Christian Downie on a-reversal-in-us-climate-policy-will-send-renewables-investors-packing-and-australia-can-reap-the-benefits
• Milana Bojovic on extreme-weather-could-send-milk-prices-soaring-deepening-challenges-for-the-dairy-industry

Northern America

• can we still govern on how-to-become-a-right-wing-star-harass-people Thanks Nick
• Geoff Beattie on why-the-musk-and-trump-relationship-is-breaking-down-a-psychologist-explains
• Charles Kurzman on trumps-justifications-for-the-latest-travel-ban-arent-supported-by-the-data-on-immigration-and-terrorism
• Joel Eissenberg on doge-savings-are-disappearing
• Eric Levitz on reading-books-decline-tiktok-oral-culture
• Tyler Cowen on americas-housing-supply-problem-the-closing-of-the-suburban-frontier
• Brad De Long on brad-setser-says-smart-things-on-exhorbinant-privilege-earned-and-unearned , on-the-political-economy-of-mendacity-in-21century-america
• Kruggers on nobody-expected-the-maga-inquisition , we-finally-know-what-american-carnage , if-you-lie-with-doge-you-get-fleeced , this-is-not-a-drill , reverse-robin-hood-and-trumpian-totalitarianism
• Menzie Chinn on macroeconomic-implications-of-premature-escalation-in-la , p-joyce-why-protecting-the-congressional-budget-office-should-matter-to-the-congress-and-to-the-country , economic-implications-of-a-narcissistic-populist-presidency
• April Herlevi on what-lies-beneath-trump-security-subsea-cables
• noahopinion on immigration-is-not-an-invasion-nor-should-it-be , a-bunch-of-thoughts-and-evidence-on-immigration
• the conversable economist on the-us-tax-code-reduces-rd-incentives
• Alex Tabarrok on our-felons-before-foreigners
• Mathew Ricketson on hed-only-have-to-show-proof-of-life-once-in-a-while-joe-bidens-advisors-hid-his-decline-and-the-media-didnt-dig-hard-enough
• Peter Greste on in-trumps-america-the-shooting-of-a-journalist-is-not-a-one-off-press-freedom-itself-is-under-attack
• Mark Stern on trump-illegal-deployment-national-guard-los-angeles , brett-kavanaugh-clarence-thomas-supreme-court-ada
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-02
• David Frum on trump-losing-trade-war
• Anne Applebaum on california-protests-ice-trump
• Emily Witt on looking-for-the-national-guard-in-los-angeles
• Jeet Heer on matthew-miller-biden-administration-liar , trump-musk-feud-democrats
• Nicole Narea on trump-immigration-worksite-raids-los-angeles-protests
• new deal democrat on consumer-price-inflation-once-again-all-clear-except-for-slowly-disinflating-shelter
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on king-trump-national-guard-illegal-los-angeles
• David Graham on alex-padilla-noem-dhs-handcuff-authoritarianism
• Sussan Glasser on donald-trumps-dictator-cosplay

Europe

• Mathew Sussex on the-secret-to-ukraines-battlefield-successes-against-russia-it-knows-wars-are-never-won-in-the-past
• Tyler Cowen on adam-tooze-on-european-military-spending , what-happened-when-spain-brought-back-the-wealth-tax

Asia

• Donald Rothwell on can-israel-still-claim-self-defence-to-justify-its-gaza-war-heres-what-the-law-says
• Christoph Bluth on why-south-koreas-new-leader-may-be-on-a-collision-course-with-trump
• Shannon Bosch on there-are-clear-laws-on-enforcing-blockades-israels-interception-of-the-madleen-raises-serious-questions
• Mohd Yunus on beijing-s-green-mirage-how-china-drives-environmental-destruction-abroad-while
• Jessica Whyte and Sara Dehm on sanctioning-extremist-israeli-ministers-is-a-start-but-australia-and-its-allies-must-do-more
• Robert Wihtol on china-banks-big-wins-trump-withdraws-global-aid-game
• Francis Wade on the-war-to-remake-myanmar
• Isaac Chotiner on an-inside-look-at-gazas-chaotic-new-aid-system
• Eyal Mayroz on global-outrage-over-gaza-has-reinforced-a-siege-mentality-in-israel-what-are-the-implications-for-peace
• Linda Jaivin on remembering-china-s-cultural-revolution-what-you-don-t-know-will-hurt-you
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-iran-war-missiles-tel-aviv-strike-nuclear
• Fred Kaplan on netanyahu-attacked-iran-israel-strike-united-states-response
• Isaac Stanley-Becker and Shane Harris on how-israel-surprised-iran
• Ruth Margalit on after-attacking-iran-israel-girds-for-whats-next

Wonk

• Rob Henderson on experts-and-elites-play-fundamentally-different-games Thanks Nick
• Bryan Caplan on the missing mood Thanks Nick
• Mark Pierce on with-friends-like-these
• Tim Harford on the-zero-sum-mindset-is-no-mystery
• noahopinion on its-ok-not-to-be-fat
• Kruggers on understanding-inequality-part-ii
• Venkat Narayanan on some-economists-have-called-for-a-radical-global-wealth-tax-on-billionaires-how-would-that-work
• Abhjinan Rej on social-media-there-was-shortwave-lessons-original-information-wars
• The conversable economist on taxing-capital-gains-only-after-realization
• Liz Anderson on empathy-as-a-sin

General

• Doug Muir on occasional-paper-the-impossible-predicament-of-the-death-newts
• Marc Bellamare on writing matters
• Katherina Peters on why-do-dolphins-jump-out-of-the-water
• Stephen Parapat on for-the-first-time-fossil-stomach-contents-of-a-sauropod-dinosaur-reveal-what-they-really-ate

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-are-co2-measurements-reliable , is-china-finally-changing-its-climate-ways
• Moyhu on may-global-surface-templs-down-0088
• open mind on picking-up-speed , acceleration-in-other-data-sets
• David Appell on 15c-by-2035

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• on-the-statement-american-academia-is-entering-a-period-of-even-more-uncertainty
  
• more-on-close-reading-in-literature-and-statistics
  
• survey-statistics-kishs-and-mengs-design-effect
  
• scientific-poetic-license-what-do-you-call-it-when-someone-is-lying-but-theyre-doing-it-in-such-a-socially-acceptable-way-that-nobody-ever-calls-them-on-it
  
• what-does-neuromancer-have-to-teach-us-about-the-role-of-ai-is-society
  
• unfair-to-galton
  
• staschat on auckland-is-larger-than-wellington
• Kaiser Fung on electronic-line-calling-vs-ground-truth-in-tennis , interpreting-margins-of-error-in-tennis-calls

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• businesses-and-economists
  
• Andrew Gelman on nuking-new-york-never-easy , big-fiction-dan-sinykin-and-george-v-higgins
• Eric Schliesser on chibbers-confronting-capitalism-trump-and-the-cult-of-firing

Vox Wonk

• micro-and-macro-cost-price-dynamics-normal-times-and-during-inflation-surges
  
• sanctions-trade-shocks-and-firms-adjustment-margins 
• how-war-has-affected-scientific-research-ukraine
  
• practical-guide-running-social-media-experiments
  
• us-china-trade-war-created-jobs-elsewhere
  
• trumps-tariffs-disregarding-lessons-history-and-scenarios-and-probable-outcomes
  
• employment-protection-legislation-reforms-and-rising-cost-job-loss
  
• 2025-trade-war-dynamic-impacts-across-us-states-and-global-economy
  
• fiscal-sustainability-and-budgetary-inertia-when-checks-and-balances-really-matter
  
• dealing-trump-dos-and-donts
  
• ukrainian-refugee-labour-market-access-shows-no-impact-local-employment-outcomes
  
• great-wall-chinese-goods-effect-tariff-induced-re-rerouting-euro-area-consumer-prices
  
• climate-adaptation-and-inequality-lessons-cape-towns-drought
  

Empathy as a sin

 I read THIS today.

It is simply another example of people who think they are christians doing satan's work.

THIS is a long article and looks at this issue from a biblical perspective so if you are interested go for it

About time

 Australia and some other counties have actually acted.

On a related matter the Israeli government do not want aid delivered to Gaza unless they are involved. It matters not apparently more people have less food and are prone to starvation

Football socceroos Ange and a bit more

 Unless we go the full Trump the socceroos are off to the world cup. Under Poppa our defence has held up although our attack has been less than impressive. The game against Japan was terrible to watch. There were a mere two shots at goal in the match. Fortunately our shot made it and indeed it was a very good goal. Another irony is one of our worst players got the goal. However I never thought at any stage Japan would score even though some of our defenders di not play well.

We are off to northern america despite not having many good players. We are still playing players way past their best such as Behich and Duke. Why is Alex Robertson not being sought?

Still we have made it directly!

Ange was sacked and few journalists have talked about his overall strategy. When it was clear injuries meant there was no way Spurs could get to the Champions league directly he concentrated on both the FA cup and Europa league. He knew they would never be relegated. He missed out on the FA cup but won a terrible europa league final and thus Spurs eventually won a trophy and gained entry to the Champions league. He won it despite some key players being injured. It appears the board wanted better EPL results but do not seem to understand that would come at the expense of the Europa League. Replacing Ange with Frank is bad in two aspects. First Frank has never won anything. Second spurs will not play the entertaining football they did under Ange.

Lastly after a very good season Melbourne City won the grand final in another terrible game. Few people realise finals rarely produces good games as the stakes are too high. both teams do not want to lose. however fans do not care if they win ugly as long as they win!

US politics

 Liar V Liar

I am somewhat bemused by Musk and Trump having a go against each other.They are both kids who have never grown up. In Musk's case as I have said before he has doomed Tesla both because he is clearly not a genius, lies like therec is no tomorrow and his association with trump and his policies has poisoned tesla's sales probably until he leaves.

TRump does not believe Musk should be able to fund any party or person unless it is republican. 

Soft power

The current administration has no understanding of soft power. I have mentioned before how USaid was so essential to US soft power. However another example is the attempt to stop Harvard from getting foreign students. Harvard has always attracted the best and brightest from the world. These graduates have either gained employment in the USa or gone back to their own countries. either way the USA was viewed in favourable terms. The current policy even if ruled illegal by the courts will have the opposite effect. Indeed students will study in other countries where they know they will not be harassed because of their views.

Economic effects

When Trump cuts spending to Harvard he is cutting programs on RESEARCH mainly medical research. This research is gone. It cannot be picked up by any other institution. It also means the USA misses out on this research. Trade schools obviously do not do this research thus showing up more trump ignorance.Again it will not be strange if this research goes to other countries. Without incurring godwins law the best example of this is why the Nazis never developed an atomic bomb. 

Cabinet ineptness

Trumps cabinet is made up of incompetents. Neon does not understand what habeas corpus is. Kennedy has a report done by AI which has bogus sources in , Lutnik believes the USA can grow bananas to avoid tariffs only problem only Hawaii can do so because of climate!

THere are a few , only a few, who know the tariff policy is bad for the USA bu they stay mute!

Russia

Trump still believes Ukraine started the war despite russia invading it. He does not want to help Ukraine which means he is helping Russia.

Visas

People are not being granted visas if their social media accounts have anything critical of trump in it.

He has banned visas to anyone in a number of countries since an attack on jews in the USA BUT the man was from Egypt and guess what it aint one of the countries.

THE USA is on its way to not only becoming a failed state but an autocratic one. The rule of law is being subverted. you can do something illegal but it takes time for the law to catch up. The more the rule of law is subverted the more the market system cannot work

Whoopsy, I forgot about bribery. We have now seen Trump sue various media organisations for libel. His case has no legs at all and in normal circumstances they would easily win on court, However their other commercial interests are making them nervous so they offer to settle. This nothing but old fashioned bribery dressed up in a 'legal case'.

Around the Traps 6/6/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Brent on trump-goes-missing Thanks Nick
• croaking cassandra on mpc-members-speaking , advertising-for-a-governor , central-banks-expressing-uncertainty , productivity-growth-languishing
• Ross Gittins on australia-cant-just-let-trump-do-what-he-wants , lets-stop-kidding-ourselves-taxes-will-have-to-go-up , in-one-awful-decision-albanese-reveals-his-do nothing-plan , someones-doing-heavy-lifting-and-its-not-the-government
• Antony Green on four-graphs-on-labors-landslide-victory
• Chris Murphy on tax-concessions-on-super-need-a-rethink-these-proposals-would-bring-much-needed-reform
• John Buchanan on australias-lowest-paid-workers-just-got-a-3-5-wage-increase-their-next-boost-could-be-even-better
• Sam Roggeveen on case-against-ramping-australia-s-defence-spending
• Greg Jericho on the-good-news-household-living-standards-are-on-the-rise-the-bad-news-just-about-everything-else
• Daniel Flitton on battle-royal-over-dollar-what-currency-means-nation
• Robert Hortle on tasmania-could-go-to-an-election-just-16-months-after-its-last-one-whats-going-on

OZ Climate

• Patrick Commins on north-west-shelf-gas-extension-australia-lng-woodside-project-little-rent-tax
• Jon Day and Scott Heron on unesco-expresses-utmost-concern-at-the-state-of-the-great-barrier-reef
• Kate Booth on nsw-is-again-cleaning-up-after-major-floods-are-we-veering-towards-the-collapse-of-insurability
• Jody Webster et al on will-surging-sea-levels-kill-the-great-barrier-reef-ancient-coral-fossils-may-hold-the-answer
• Emma Lovell and Jessica Allen on australias-latest-emissions-data-reveal-we-still-have-a-giant-fossil-fuel-problem
• Graham Readfearn on wa-coral-unprecedented-bleaching-event-ningaloo-reef
• offshore-wind-support-came-out-stronger-this-election-heres-what-labor-can-do-next
• the-end-of-australias-iron-ore-boom-and-the-rise-of-green-steel
  
• offshore-wind-support-came-out-stronger-this-election-heres-what-labor-can-do-next
  
• main-supplier-to-australias-most-powerful-big-battery-warns-it-may-go-out-of-business
  
• solar-farms-reduce-water-stress-improve-soils-and-plant-growth-new-study-finds
  
• the-end-of-australias-iron-ore-boom-and-the-rise-of-green-steel
  
• the-new-parliament-can-secure-a-sustainable-future-for-australian-homes-heres-how
• negative-demand-the-new-grid-reality-in-a-state-where-half-of-all-homes-have-rooftop-solar 
• broken-hill-blackout-network-operator-knew-its-back-up-was-out-of-action-but-didnt-tell-anyone
  

Northern  America

• institutional economics on taco-tuesday-judgement-day-for-ieepa
• stay slick on archeofuturism-the-secret-doctrine-of-the-american-techno-right Thanks Nick
• Felix Martin on great-boomer-selloff-may-overwhelm-us-stocks Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on taking-economic-policy-uncertainty-seriously
• the conversable economist on will-the-courts-save-trump-from-his-tariffs , bernanke-on-federal-reserve-communication
• Huw Mackay on trump-art-bad-faith-deal
• Kruggers on hating-new-york , we-are-no-longer-a-serious-country, is-there-a-tariff-end-game , elon-musk-is-a-disgusting-abomination , wake-up-and-smell-the-corruption
• Dylan Mathews on bond-market-treasuries-tax-big-beautiful-bill-trump
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-trumps-chaos-john-roberts , supreme-courts-liberal-opinions-kagan-jackson-sotomayor
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-trump-powell-fed-chair-firing
• noahopinion on its-time-for-abundance-to-get-mad , even-if-trump-chickens-out-you-should-still-be-worried-about-the-economy
• Brad De Long on the-economist-is-not-amused , think-of-it-as-generating-our-investment-surplus , friday-macro-sitch-watching
• Eric Schliesser on on-the-political-roots-of-academic-freedom
• Jonathan Chait on medicaid-cuts-tax-bill
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-civil-servants-owen-immigration-judges
• Abdallah Fayyad on big-government-small-government-trump-democracy
• Rozini Ali on theyre-here-to-detain-me
• John Washington on the-roots-of-bukeles-gulag
• Jack Herrara on trumps-de-legalization-campaign
• Eric Lutz on donald-trump-pardons-maga-allies
• Jeet Heer on michael-ledeen-obituary-american-fascism , elon-musk-drug-use-ideology
• Pete Millwood on what-us-could-lose-closing-its-universities-china
• Andrew Prokop on elon-musk-trump-feud-bill-contracts-nasa
• Rozina Ali on theyre-here-to-detain-me
• Susan Glasser on the-musk-trump-divorce-is-as-messy-as-you-thought-it-would-be

Europe

• Paul Adams on ukraines audacious drone sends a critical message to russia and the west
• Dymtro Kuleba on delusions-peacemaking-ukraine
• Adam Simpson on pro-trump-candidate-wins-polands-presidential-election-a-bad-omen-for-the-eu-ukraine-and-women
• Mick Ryan on three-punch-combo-behind-ukraine-s-spectacular-drone-strike-russia
• Phillips O'Brien on ukraine-new-war-drone-strike
• renew economy on denmark-approves-first-lifespan-extension-for-one-of-worlds-oldest-offshore-wind-farms
• Mathew Sussex on the-secret-to-ukraines-battlefield-successes-against-russia-it-knows-wars-are-never-won-in-the-past
• David Kirichenko on ukraine-s-cheap-robot-drones-extract-heavy-price-russia

Asia

• digressions impressions on israels-strategic-cul-de-sac Thanks Nick
• Ryosuke Hananda on can-japan-fill-leadership-void-america-steps-back-asia
• Andrew Thomas on a-two-state-solution-is-gaining-momentum-again-does-it-have-a-chance-of-success
• Vu Lam on tariff-war-s-accelerating-asia-s-trade-transformation
• Neve Gordon et al on the-shame-of-israeli-medicine
• Chae Jeong on transactional-worldview-south-korea-s-new-president
• Hana Rosin on mossads-former-chief-calls-the-war-in-gaza-useless
• Issac Chotiner on why-ehud-olmert-thinks-his-country-is-committing-war-crimes

Wonk

• The ruffian on were-all-viennese-now Thanks Nick
• the common reader on the-humanities-help-us-find-the-people-we-want-to-know Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on beware-giffen-ish-vibes-in-the-money-markets
• noahopinion on the-anti-economists-have-overreached , how-chinese-drones-could-defeat-america
• Kruggers on understanding-inequality-part-i
• Brad De Long on understanding-inequality  , mondays-with-the-machine
• Menzie Chinn on global-imbalances-as-global-recession-ews
• Benjamin Moffitt on what-is-populism
• Marcel Plincta on russia-has-been-working-on-creating-drones-that-call-home-go-undercover-and-start-fires-heres-how-they-work
• Andrew Gelman on monsters-a-fans-dilemma
• the conversable economist on some-economics-of-africas-struggle
• Tyler Cowen on claims-about-debt-and-productivity-growth

General

• Rachel Brown and Rob Brooks on your-smartphone-is-a-parasite-according-to-evolution
• Ruby Wright and Alexander Rawlings on astronomers-thought-the-milky-way-was-doomed-to-crash-into-andromeda-now-theyre-not-so-sure

Climate

• Alex Chalmers on the-bad-science-behind-expensive-nuclear Thanks Nick
• Seven Teske on earth-is-heading-for-2-7-c-warming-this-century-we-may-avoid-the-worst-climate-scenarios-but-the-outlook-is-still-dire
• Real Climate on predicted-arctic-sea-ice-trends-over-time
• skeptical science on was global warming changed to climate change because the Earth stopped warming , climate change-makes-hurricanes-more-destructive , new_research
• David Appell on hadcet-warmest-meteorological-spring
• Mathew England and Alex Gupta on unprecedented-heat-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean-kickstarted-europes-hellish-2023-summer-now-we-know-what-caused-it

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• statistical-graphics-when-does-it-make-sense-to-introduce-deliberate-distortion-to-counteract-an-expected-perceptual-illusion
  
• the-ladder-of-abstraction-in-statistical-graphics
  
• survey-statistics-it-is-the-people
  
• pascals-triangle-and-the-ramanujan-principle
  
• gold-standard-science
  
• survey-statistics-2-flavors-of-calibration
  
• more-on-the-emptiness-of-the-governments-gold-standard-science-slogan
  
• different-sequences-in-narrative-why-suspense-can-go-flat
  
• anything-you-can-do-with-bayesian-inference-you-can-do-in-other-ways-bayesian-inference-is-a-bit-like-calculus-you-can-do-derivatives-and-integrals-without-calculus-indeed-mathematicians-in-pre-ne
  
• when-are-ai-ml-models-unlikely-to-help-with-decision-making
  
• statschat on cancer-and-exercise , briefly
• Kaiser Fung on metrics-for-evaluating-passkeys

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• what-ive-been-reading
  
• Jonathan Ree on like-a-top-hat Thanks Nick

Vox Wonk

• tariffs-across-supply-chain
  
• global-impact-ai-mind-gap
  
• fully-remote-work-expands-recruitment-and-boosts-productivity
  
• fiscal-stagnation
  
• missing-tariffs-how-flawed-data-turn-trade-policy-analysis-herculean-task
  
• home-charging-and-plug-hybrid-electric-vehicles-strategy-real-world-emissions
  
• private-safe-asset-supply-and-financial-instability
  
• how-french-firms-navigated-inflation-surge-lessons-expectations-and-decision-making
  
• industrial-policy-lessons-east-germanys-privatisation
  
• anatomy-of-the-phillips-curve
  
• artificial-intelligence-finance
  

That Damned ABC

 There is so much going on in the world one could easily get depressed so today I am going to rant about Newsradio.

I like the station because it essentially just gives us news each day every day ( except when Parliament sits.)

Thus I get bloody enraged to turn on the radio on the weekend and hear Aussie rules being broadcast. If i want to watch or listen to sport there are plenty of other stations to listen to or TV stations to watch.

I want Newsradio simply to be newsradio. I do not want any sport to be broadcast on it.

Rant ended and I now take my blue pills.

When politicians change parties

 We now have another senator changing parties in the senate. This makes it THREE.

I simply want to make the point when voting the voters had no idea of these politicians changing sides. It is particularly egregious in the senate where a person can sit there for a considerable time before confronting the voters again.

I can go back to Don Chip who continued to sit in the HoR before contesting the Senate as he said he would. Cheryl Kernot is the only honorable persson here as she resigned from the Senate.

I have no idea of how it could be done but politicians who change ssides after an election should have to resign

The present system stinks to high heaven.

Ukraine surprises us

 Well that was different.

I want to concentrate of something everyone has missed. At that infamous meeting Trump told Zelensky he di not have any cards. Zelensky knew at the time he did but could not comment.

What everyone is missing is Ukraine has just made Trump's comment look very very stupid. Trump will not like that nor that he was not told about the attack before it occurred. Note it did not attack innocent civilians but military targets.

This means the US will not help Ukraine when Trump walks away form the war and takes his red wagon with him.

The irony is Putin is in a very weak position given the Russian economy.

There are now 2 major questions

1. how long will Europe continue to help Ukraine
2. how long will Ukraine continue not to target civilians as Russia continues to 

Superannuation

 for opinions on the new changes see:

• Patrick Cummins and again
• Ross Gittins
• Greg Jericho
• Brendan Coates and Joey Moloney

For tho\ase  like the innumerate Gerard Henderson if you have OVER $3m in your super account ( and of course you are still working) then you are rich and can well afford the new tax.)   Think about it. you either earn a bucket load of money and/or have contributed a lot yourself like Ross Gittins!

The best thing to do is to align super and income tax. At present if you get $100k in super you pay no tax but if you earn that you pay quite a lot of tax.

IF you are going to get rid of any taxes then it should be the tax on contributions and earnings.

The other thing is super is there for a person's retirement. It aint for estate planning and therefore it should not be allowed to do this!

The aim is for people to retire and not get the pension and any ancillary benefits.

A little bit of history. Keating wanted to align super with income tax with little taxes on contributions and earnings but Kelty said no. workers deserved to get all of their super without any tax and then get the pension. Hawke then caved and thus we got the complexity and three taxes on super.

Around the Traps 28/5/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Patrick Commins on hysterical-criticism-of-labors-super-tax-plan-could-thwart-needed-reform-experts-say , labor-super-plan-leading-tax-expert-calls-out-confected-outrage-of-wealthy-australians , working-from-home-not-to-blame-for-dip-in-productivity-australian-report-says
• Milad Haghani on drivers-of-suvs-and-pick-ups-should-pay-more-to-be-on-our-roads-heres-how-to-make-the-system-fairer
• Ross Gittins on why-we-need-our-economists-to-try-lot-harder , dont-let-rich-old-men-tell-you-the-planned-new-super-tax-is-terribly-bad
• Jim Green on nuclear-power-may-have-cost-the-coalition-11-seats-in-the-federal-election
• croaking cassandra on some-more-post-budget-thoughts , one-last-post-on-investment-boost , may-monetary-policy-statement
• Brendan Coates and Joey Moloney on actually-gen-z-stand-to-be-the-biggest-winners-from-the-new-3-million-super-tax
• Greg Jericho on superannuation-super-debate-australia-tax-system-built-for-the-rich
• Kate Lyons on uninsurable-pockets-of-australia-pose-existential-questions-that-may-require-radical-answers

OZ climate

• nsw-pitches-first-urban-renewable-zone-based-around-rooftop-pv-batteries-and-evs
  
• australia-is-about-to-see-a-step-change-in-its-renewable-transition-strategy
  
• watershed-moment-transmission-re-think-our-best-chance-to-get-renewable-grid-right
  
• industry-slams-axing-of-1-billion-wind-farm-as-highly-political-as-doubts-raised-over-objections
  
• big-battery-splurge-sets-cracking-pace-for-2025-as-wind-and-solar-investment-has-best-year-since-2018
  
• wholesale-gas-prices-have-risen-far-more-than-electricity-it-needs-a-substitute
  
• marinus-link-is-an-expensive-risk-for-tasmanians-and-it-needs-better-scrutiny
• like-dropping-gravel-into-the-trailer-top-end-solar-farms-finally-allowed-to-send-power-to-the-grid
  
• why-shape-and-value-are-the-key-buzzwords-for-australias-aspiring-offshore-wind-industry
  
• Michelle Ward and James Watson on half-the-remaining-habitat-of-australias-most-at-risk-species-is-outside-protected-areas
• Adam Morton on approval-of-woodside-lng-project-gambles-with-ancient-heritage-for-short-term-gain

Northern America

• institutional economics on moody-blues
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-foreign-aid-looks-good-now-that-its-gone
• Bryan Walsh on violent-crime-rate-homicide-police-baltimore-pandemic-covid
• Tyler Cowen on the-3-5-percent-remittance-tax
• Alex Tabarrok on you-can-see-the-end-of-the-great-stagnation-everywhere-but-in-the-productivity-statistics
• Brad De Long on think-of-it-as-generating-our-investment-surplus-not-as-our-trade-deficit , does-the-federal-reserve-deserve-deference
• Kruggers on the-economic-consequences-of-destroying-Harvard , america-turns-its-back-on-the-world , the-trade-emperor-has-always-been-stark-naked , digital-corruption-takes-over-dc
• Mark Stern on donald-trump-illegal-supreme-court-john-roberts-rule-law
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-america-1930s-germany-dual-state
• Cameron Peters on donald-trump-pardons-white-collar-fraud-corruption
• David Frum on trump-golden-age-corruption
• David Graham on the-presidents-pattern-of-impatience
• Jeet Heer on protect-judges-trump-incitement
• Marc Carnellas on trump-favorite-law-lamonica-mciver-ice-arrest
• Alex Tabarrok on how-america-built-the-worlds-most-successful-market-for-generic-drugs

Europe

• John Neale on the-forgotten-post-war-decree-that-deliberately-strangled-birmingham Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on a-letter-to-europe
• renew economy on norway-project-to-trial-flat-pack-floating-offshore-wind-turbines
• Mark Edele on vladimir-putins-bombing-of-ukrainian-civilians-wont-end-the-war-any-faster-so-why-is-he-doing-it
• Catherine Wilson on how-romania-defied-putin-s-interference-choose-democracy-over-division
• Joshua Keating on ukraine-hasnt-won-over-trump-but-it-might-not-need-to

Asia

• Yvonne Tan on tackling-forced-labour-malaysia-begins-re-examining-its-migration-model
• Vincent So on taiwan-prepared-fight-itself
• Amra Lee on israels-new-aid-delivery-system-for-gaza-is-sparking-outrage-why-is-it-so-problematic
• Walter Colnaghi on china-s-rare-earth-advantage-isn-t-just-about-control
• Peter Varghese on cptpp-dilemma-economic-merit-versus-geopolitical-calculation
• renew economy on china-switches-on-first-large-scale-lithium-sodium-hybrid-storage-project
• Yusaku Yoshikawa on rice-prices-soar-japan-rethinks-food-security
• Bec Strating on wrong-time-collective-defence-pact-asia
• Abhinandan Kumar on why-jaishankar-may-be-india-s-most-nehruvian-diplomat-nehru-himself
• Aymann Ismail on israel-gaza-war-news-palestine-pallywood

Wonk

• Michael Inzlicht on the-self-control-industrial-complex Thanks Nick
• global inequality on the-problems-of-authenticity-under-capitalism Thanks Nick
• Nina Khaze on israeli-embassy-staff-killings-expose-limits-diplomatic-protection
• Tim Harford on seven-truths-about-trade
• noahopinion on shops-make-a-city-great
• Kruggers on what-deindustrialization-can-teach-us-about-the-effects-of-AI-on-unemployment
• Noah Smith and Chris Best on the-age-of-twitter-is-finally-ending Thanks Brad
• Milad Haghani and Hossein Parineh on most-car-ramming-incidents-arent-terrorism-but-theyre-becoming-more-common-and-crowds-need-better-protection
• stumbling and mumbling on systems-not-individuals

General

• Steve McFarlane on the-tga-has-approved-donanemab-for-alzheimers-disease-how-does-this-drug-work-and-who-will-be-able-to-access-it
• Chris Hall on daylight-can-boost-the-immune-systems-ability-to-fight-infections-new-study

Climate

• Ellie Ong et al on antarctica-has-its-own-shield-against-warm-water-but-this-could-now-be-under-threat
• Sven Teske on earth-is-heading-for-2-7-c-warming-this-century-we-may-avoid-the-worst-climate-scenarios-but-the-outlook-is-still-dire
• open mind on how-fast-is-the-world-warming
• Damien Carrington on almost-40-of-worlds-glaciers-already-doomed-due-to-climate-crisis-study
• Daniel Carrasco and Jonathon Tonkin on earths-seasonal-rhythms-are-changing-putting-species-and-ecosystems-at-risk
• ocean acidification on effects-of-acidification-and-habitat-loss-on-coastal-nitrogen-cycling-dynamics
• skeptical science on new-research

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• xkcd-on-radon
  
• capitalism-as-the-antimarket
  
• ecologists-endless-quest-for-automatic-inference
  
• russian-roulette-an-example-in-which-you-can-have-a-deterministic-potential-outcome-framework-or-an-asymmetric-utility-function-but-not-both
  
• llms-as-behavioral-study-participants
  
• statistical-graphics-when-does-it-make-sense-to-introduce-deliberate-distortion-to-counteract-an-expected-perceptual-illusion
  
• statschat on redrawing-a-graph , typical-wedding
• Kaiser Fung on causal-skimming

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• slime mould time mould on the-mind-in-the-wheel-prologue-everybody-wants-a-rock Thanks Nick
• Andrew Gelman on perplexing-plots
• angry bear on book-review-the-end-of-the-world-is-just-the-beginning

Vox Wonk

• rising-cost-motherhood-germany
  
• when-lights-go-out-power-trust-and-future-europes-energy-transition
  
• navigating-sudden-stops-how-credit-support-policies-can-replace-shrinking-capital
  
• assessment-performance-inflation-targeting
  
• tariffs-and-retaliation-macroeconomic-analysis
  
• when-upskilling-good-not-enough-understanding-labour-shortages-through-job-quality
  
• fed-communication-all-understood-few
  
• geopolitical-risks-and-effectiveness-eu-cohesion-policy
  
• risks-and-benefits-high-speed-internet-socioemotional-wellbeing-adolescence-and-youth
  
• migration-and-regime-change-outflows-follow-democratic-decline-inflows-fuel-illiberal
  

the world is warming fast.

Tamino has a great article on how fast the world is warming

Ukraine

 Sorry but I am going to repat a lot of things i have previously said on the war in Ukraine.

First of all russia is responsible for this war. They INVADED Ukraine. No-one forced them to! The enlargement of NATO is a furphy. NATO like most military treaties is a defensive one. It can ONLY be invoked if a country is attacked. It CANNOT be invoked if a NATO country attacks another country.

Russia could only fear an enlargement of NATO because it would limit the number of countries it could attack.

The next thing is the Western world has to provide Ukraine with all the resources it needs to DEFEAT Ukraine. All the happened previously was to ensure Ukraine was not defeated. Biden here was at fault. He was far too timid and was worried about Putin 'raising the temperature'. The fact is he never has despite his warnings.

Allow Ukraine to bomb the airfields where the drones are coming from for example. Maybe bomb a few electricity stations in their winter. Just ensure they do not target civilians like Russia is.

The russian economy is looking quite bad so increase the costs to Putin of continuing the war.

We need to get tougher on Israel

 Israel had the world's sympathy when Hamas militants murdered over 1000 Israelis.

However their response has shown they can match Hamas for being evil.

They have at no stage attempted to separate civilians and armed militants at all. Over 50k palestinians have been killed and most of them have been women and children. It is absurd to call them Hamas militants. Israel has deliberately withheld aid from Gaza. This not only includes food and water but medical supplies. They have destroyed most hospitals in Gaza because it was occupied by Hamas but provided NO evidence. They have stopped surgeons from going into Gaza.

The result of all of this. Hamas now has the same number of people as members as it had at the start of the 'war'. That's right people have joined Hamas because of the Israeli tactics. brilliant.

We now have some Israelis behaving very badly as well.

It is very hard to get peace when so many on both sides hate each other with some intensity.  Sanctions on 

Israel is a first step in this direction

The Nationals are still mad

 I don't know what else to say about the National's madness. They wanted a divorce and then they did not?

I can't help but think Littleproud got rattled by the leadership vote the Nationals always have after an election. Perhaps he thought some of this madness might appeal to those who voted for Canavan. We never get to know the votes but I think we can assume it was a lot closer than most thought.

This is alarming. Canavan as leader would make the coalition unelectable. Only the base of the Nationals (and Liberals) do not believe in climate change. The Liberals cannot win suburban seats without respecting climate change and adopting policies to counter it. Just remember the teals won very safe Liberal seats primarily but not only on combatting climate change.

Until the Nationals realise this the coalition will not win an election and this is very bad for Australian democracy!

Around the Traps 21/5/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kevin Bonham on attacks-on-australias-preferential-voting-system-are-ludicrous-we-can-be-proud-of-it
• Rick Sarre and Ben Livings on ben-roberts-smith-has-lost-an-appeal-in-his-long-running-defamation-case-heres-why
• Hugh Piper on why-nrl-s-numbers-don-t-add
• Ross Gittins on the-rba-is-spooked-by-pay-rises-it-should-relax , want-greater-productivity-set-wages-to-increase-by-3.5%-each-year , after-50-years-were-back-to-glory-days-of-full-employment , working-less-could-be-answer-to-one-of-our-biggest-problems
• Chiara Holgate and Allie Gallant on why-is-southern-australia-in-drought-and-when-will-it-end
• Paul Chad on wine-is-still-australias-most-popular-alcoholic-drink-but-many-producers-face-an-uncertain-future
• Shannon Bosch on russia-is-labelling-oscar-jenkins-a-mercenary-not-a-prisoner-of-war-whats-the-difference-and-why-does-this-matter , why-oscar-jenkins-trial-luhansk-people-s-republic-sham
• croaking cassandra on fiscal-starting-points , hard-to-believe-really , the-deeply-underwhelming-budget
• Nicki Hutley on the-rba-has-just-cut-its-cash-rate-but-the-question-already-on-borrowers-lips-is-when-can-we-expect-another-one
• Michelle Grattan on nationals-break-the-coalition-in-a-major-blow-to-sussan-ley
• Linda Botterill on the-coalition-is-on-a-break-but-the-nationals-risk-finding-their-former-partner-doesnt-want-them-back
• John Quiggin on david-littleproud-cites-nuclear-energy-disagreement-as-major-factor-in-coalition-split
• Joshua Black on the-band-is-breaking-up-has-the-coalition-stopped-making-sense
• John Hawkins on rba-cuts-interest-rates-ready-to-respond-again-if-the-economy-weakens-further
• Mick Ryan on ukraine-australia-contrast-military-learning
• Greg Jericho on rba-inflation-interest-rates-cut-full-employment
• Milad Haghani on drivers-of-suvs-and-pick-ups-should-pay-more-to-be-on-our-roads-heres-how-to-make-the-system-fairer
• Abdullah Ali on why-australia-should-pay-attention-sudan-s-deepening-crisis

OZ Climate

• why-the-future-of-clean-energy-depends-on-upholding-energy-as-a-civil-right
  
• home-battery-uptake-hits-record-high-in-market-primed-for-rebate-gold-rush
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-to-be-fully-operational-by-end-of-year-after-commissioning-slows
  
• how-electricity-meters-distort-the-role-of-rooftop-solar-generation
  
• major-reforms-ease-grid-access-for-big-wind-solar-and-batteries
• is-there-a-better-way-to-serve-retail-customers-how-about-a-smaller-and-cheaper-grid-connection
  
• robots-and-ai-are-helping-australia-achieve-its-ambition-of-game-changing-ultra-low-cost-solar
  
• aemo-flags-rethink-of-transmission-plan-as-costs-soar-and-social-licence-bites
  
• big-batteries-flex-their-muscles-hit-new-records-in-evening-peaks-in-australia-and-california
  
• Ali Abbas et al on waste-to-energy-in-australia-how-it-works-where-new-incinerators-could-go-and-how-they-stack-up
• Kristy Graham on maximising-australia-s-green-growth

Northern America

• institutional economics on peak-tariffs-trump-puts-and-bond-vigilantism
• Kruggers on tariffs-now-what , deindustrialization-causes-and-consequences , attack-of-the-sadistic-zombies , how-trump-will-make-the-tariff-shock-worse , a-liz-truss-moment-for-america , gaming-out-a-sudden-stop , what-a-decent-budget-would-look-like
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-police-shooting-barnes-felix , supreme-court-libby-fecteau-maine-transgender-house , supreme-court-federal-reserve-trump-wilcox
• noahopinion on so-why-did-us-wages-stagnate-for-20-years , is-the-us-in-a-high-level-equilibrium-trap , white-americans-as-a-normal-minority
• Andrew Prokop on trump-house-big-beautiful-bill-megabill-explained
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-policy-rule-evaluation-for-the-feds-strategy-review
• Dylan Mathews on trump-republican-reconciliation-bill-normal-tax-cuts
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-term-2-american-empathy-emotionally-draining
• Michael Scherer and Ashley Parker on elon-musk-doge-opponents-dc
• David Frum on trumps-national-security-disaster
• the conversable economist on update-on-the-military-base-realignment-and-closure-process , us-state-level-abortion-regulations-causes-and-effects
• Mary Zeigler on georgia-republicans-adriana-smith-forced-ventilation
• Jeet Heer on trump-golden-age-palestine-genocide , biden-original-sin-democratic-party
• Roger Southall on trumps-afrikaners-are-south-african-opportunists-not-refugees-whats-behind-the-us-move
• Dylan Scott on big-beautiful-bill-congress-trump-medicaid-cuts
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-john-roberts-amy-coney-barrett-charter-case
• Adam Serwer on birthright-citizenship-trump-supreme-court
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-trump-humphreys-executor

Europe

• Nicholas Grossman on ukraine-russia-peace-talks-are-farce
• Natassha Lindstaedt on putin-is-testing-how-far-he-can-push-trump-by-not-turning-up-for-istanbul-talks
• Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko on territorial-concessions-will-be-central-to-any-ukraine-peace-deal-and-to-russias-long-term-plan
• Tyler Cowen on trade-sentences-to-ponder
• Michael Bossack on what-make-restart-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-negotiations

Asia

• John Aziz on the-settlers-an-incomplete-portrayal Thanks Nick
• Mereille Rebeiz on disarming-hezbollah-is-key-to-lebanons-recovery-but-the-task-is-complicated-by-regional-shifts-ceasefire-violations
• Vaughn Cruikshank and Brendan Hyndman on ferocity-fitness-and-fast-bowling-how-virat-kohli-revolutionised-indian-cricket
• Michael Clarke on xi-s-history-lesson-amid-putin-s-party
• Donald Rothwell on 1-in-5-gazans-face-starvation-can-the-law-force-israel-to-act , uk-spoken-out-human-catastrophe-gaza-australia
• renew economy on china-smashes-rooftop-solar-installation-record-as-overall-emissions-fall-for-first-time
• Sari Bashi on gaza-starvation-and-exile
• Alice Kaplan on zionism-without-zion-melting-point-rachel-cockerell
• Isaac Chotiner on what-israeli-officials-are-privately-saying-about-starvation-in-gaza

Wonk

• Rob Henderson on older generations continue to surrender moral authority to the most naive narcissistic impulsive dishonest age group Thanks Nick
• numb at the lodge on douglas-murray-gruesome-toady thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on the-value-of-institutional-memory
• the conversable economist on the-import-so-that-they-can-export-firms
• Niusha Shafiabady and Andrew O'Neil on america-first-ethics-second-implications-trump-s-ai-executive-order
• Lisa Herzog on have-people-really-had-enough-of-experts
• Menzie Chinn on chinn-ito-financial-openness-index-updated-to-2022
• Tyler Cowen on claude-4-i-attempt-a-first-prompt-and-receive-this-answer

General

• Evan Deturk on an-80000-year-history-of-the-tomato Thanks Nick
• Byrd Pinkerton on krafla-magma-testbed-iceland-volcanology-research
• Barbara Catinella et al on for-making-stars-its-not-just-how-much-gas-a-galaxy-has-that-matters-its-where-its-hiding

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-di vikings enjoy a warm beach climate in greenland , volcanic-cooling , ClimateAdam-why-has-global-warming-just-spiked, new research for the week
• Omid Gasmini and Ben Newell on climate-scientists-are-trusted-globally-just-not-as-much-as-other-scientists-heres-why
• David Appell on bizarro-arctic-sea-ice
• open mind on critical-thinking
• ocean acidification on fatty-acid-response-of-calcifying-benthic-antarctic-species-to-ocean-acidification-and-warming

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• an-alternative-monty-hall-problem-as-with-the-usual-monty-hall-problem-just-set-it-up-as-a-probability-tree-and-it-all-works-out
  
• why-were-schools-so-slow-to-return-to-in-person-instruction
  
• if-only-arxiv-required-researchers-to-sign-at-the-top-rather-than-the-bottom-of-the-page-none-of-this-wouldve-happened
  
• which-ai-coding-assistant-should-i-be-using
  
• can-language-models-predict-the-next-twist-in-a-story
  
• what-happened-in-2024
  
• prior-as-data-prior-as-belief-prior-as-soft-constraint-prior-as-unconditional-distribution-in-a-generative-model
• exploratory-data-analysis-and-confirmatory-data-analysis-are-the-same-thing
  
• statschat on why-do-you-want-to-know , no-next-question , how-many-coffees-is-a-house , golf-doctors-and-parkinsons-disease
• freakometrics on unveil sources of uncertainty

Dianne Coyle ( quirky - book reviews)

• the-power-of-ideas
  
• Colin Kidd on dangerous-chimera Thanks Nick
• Stephen Grenville on us-dollar-everyone-s-problem
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Andrew Gelman on eunji-kims-book-the-american-mirage-how-reality-tv-upholds-the-myth-of-meritocracy

Vox Wonk

• overcoming-constraints-how-banks-helped-us-firms-reroute-their-supply-chains
  
• big-techs-ai-empire
  
• digital-access-and-gender-representation-case-major-connectivity-shock-sub-saharan
  
• nordic-model-wage-coordination-crossroads
  
• trade-imbalance-network-and-currency-fluctuations
  
• new-ebook-trumps-great-trade-hack
  
• chinese-banks-and-their-emde-borrowers
  
• living-la-vida-loca-remote-investing-latin-america-1869-1929
  
• expanding-private-insurance-long-term-care-reduce-public-spending
  
• moderate-growth-amid-global-trade-uncertainty-commissions-spring-2025-forecast
  
• disentangling-trade-policy-uncertainty-and-equity-market-performance
  
• real-effects-brexit-labour-demand
  
• foreign-returns-nations-puzzle