Around the Traps 29/11/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Aarti Betigeri on summer-could-australia-vs-india-take-cricket-s-greatest-rivalry-out-anglosphere
• Ross Gittins on playing-major-role-in-saving-planet-could-make-us-money
• Sarah Joseph on banning-under-16s-from-social-media-may-be-unconstitutional-and-ripe-for-high-court-challenge
• Mark the Ballot on update-betting-market-and-opinion-polls

OZ Climate

• bad-for-consumers-regulator-pings-generators-and-batteries-for-multiple-rebids-in-high-priced-events
  
• massive-70-gw-wind-and-solar-project-that-straddles-nullarbor-given-environmental-criteria
  
• not-fit-for-purpose-labor-kicks-off-rewrite-of-electricity-market-rules-to-keep-pace-with-renewables
  
• nsw-gives-planning-approval-for-giant-2-gwh-battery-at-site-of-states-likely-last-coal-generator
  
• south-australia-wants-to-bring-back-mothballed-diesel-plants-due-to-lack-of-demand-side-options
  
• extended-outages-of-always-on-baseload-power-leaves-coal-states-vulnerable-to-heatwave
  
• australias-newest-and-biggest-battery-charged-with-surprise-role-in-keeping-lights-on-in-nsw-heatwave
  
• new-tender-opens-for-another-6-gw-of-wind-and-solar-as-record-year-puts-2030-renewables-target-within-reach
  
• wind-solar-and-battery-pipeline-albanese-better-not-stuff-up-bowens-excellent-tenure
• in-the-end-the-only-blackouts-were-in-the-media-headlines-but-there-has-to-be-a-better-way-to-do-this
  
• Anna Skarbek and Mathew Bennetti on australias-electricity-market-is-getting-a-big-makeover-and-these-3-changes-will-make-it-future-proof
• Peter Hannan on australian-households-energy-bills-could-be-20-lower-in-10-years-report-finds
• Andrew King on this-summer-will-likely-be-wetter-and-warmer-for-most-australians-bureau-forecast-says
• Adam Morton and Petra Stock on six-things-we-learned-about-the-australian-governments-climate-policies
• Amidine Denis-Ryan and Kevin Morrison on  gorgon-ccs-underperformance-hits-new-low-2023-24

Northern America

• Clifford Young et al on link-between-media-consumption-and-public-opinion thanks Brad
• one first on things-fall-apart Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-can-musk-find-2-trillion-in-spending-cuts-for-trump
• Dylan Mathews on musk-trump-balance-budget-doge
• institutional economics on what-the-us-dollar-tells-us-about-the-incoming-administration
• Brad De Long on note-to-self-coin-money-and-regulate-the-value-thereof
• Liz Zhou on trump-says-he-wants-to-get-rid-of-woke-generals-he-can
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on jack-smith-trump-trial-january-6-department-of-justice
• the conversable economist on the-middle-income-trap , thanksgiving-origins-3
• noahopinion on at-least-five-interesting-things-cda , the-alternate-reality-of-rfk-and-the-antivaxers , the-best-case-scenario-for-trumps-second-term
• Ellen Ioannes on trump-tariffs-inflation-economy-china-global-trade , fbi-background-checks-trump-gaetz-hegseth-nominees-senate-congress-transition
• Joel Eissenberg on the-trump-tariffs-wont-actually-happen

Europe

• Brad De Long on the-unmaking-of-a-modern-economy-brexit-austerity-and-the-great-retraction
• Sam Roggeveen on russia-escalates-strikes-ukraine-new-missile-warns-west
• stumbling and mumbling on on-ideological-blindspots , on-legibility
• Joshua Yaffa on what-can-stop-the-cycle-of-escalation-in-ukraine
• Menzie Chinn on the-ruble-under-pressure
• Tyler Cowen on germany-chart-of-the-day

Asia

• Genevieve Donnellan-May on china-s-food-safety-crises-some-oils-just-shouldn-t-mix
• Marika Sosnowski on ceasefires-are-not-a-panacea-here-are-4-reasons-to-be-concerned-about-the-israel-hezbollah-deal
• Adnan Aamir on pakistan-china-s-diplomatic-relations-reach-low-ebb
• Gordon Weiss on sri-lanka-votes-change
• Mark O'Connell on israels-revenge-an-interview-with-rashid-khalidi

Wonk

• weird at my school on forgotten-creeds-from-the-summer Thanks Nick
• Arin's substack on real-wage-growth-the-post-pandemic-labour-market-and-beyond Thanks Brad
• Mark Beeson on trump-s-victory-triumph-authoritarianism-too
• Robert Waldmann on some-thoughts-on-psychology-of-heuristics-and-biases
• Chris Ogden on trump-joins-putin-xi-and-modi-as-the-four-horsemen-of-global-authoritarianism
• Victor Peskin on icc-arrest-warrants-for-israels-netanyahu-and-hamas-leader-doesnt-mean-those-accused-will-face-trial-anytime-soon
• Mainly Macro on should-governments-protect-citizens-from-external-shocks-to-their-living-standards
• Daniel Flitton on shifting-mindset-global-challenges
• Brad De Long on twelve-slides-the-history-of-economic-growth
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-2024-win-global-anti-incumbent-system
• Arash Azizi on israel-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gallant-icc
• Lisa Toohey on whats-a-trade-war

General

• Aaron Cavosie on a-4-45-billion-year-old-crystal-from-mars-reveals-the-planet-had-water-from-the-beginning
• Tim Harford on how-to-give-a-good-speech

Climate

• Jacqueline Peel on from-a-us-300-billion-climate-finance-deal-to-global-carbon-trading-heres-what-was-and-wasnt-achieved-at-the-cop29-climate-talks
• David Appell on october-and-annual-update-for-berkeley
• open mind on greenhouse-forces
• Stochastic trend on chinese-carbon-emissions-in-2023-vs-2024
• Kate Dooley on after-nearly-10-years-of-debate-cop29s-carbon-trading-deal-is-seriously-flawed
• climate citizen on guest-post-after-nearly-10-years-of-debate
• Amelia Leavesley on a-tax-on-new-plastic-would-slash-waste-if-built-into-the-global-treaty-on-plastics
• Katherine Doehring et al on how-sharing-stories-about-river-restoration-can-inspire-others-to-take-care-of-waterways
• Melanie Pill and Georgia Hammersley on climate-cop-out-weak-finance-goal-fossil-fuel-stalemate-fail-most-vulnerable
• Joseph Webster and Frank Willey on it-time-change-clocks-harness-power-solar

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• why-do-medical-tests-always-have-error-rates
  
• those-correction-notices-in-full-yes-its-possible-to-directly-admit-and-learn-from-error
  
• keith-orourkes-final-published-paper-statistics-as-a-social-activity-attitudes-toward-amalgamating-evidence
  
• i-wonder-just-what-it-takes-to-get-people-to-conclude-that-a-research-seam-has-been-mined-to-the-point-of-exhaustion
  
• practical-issues-with-calibration-for-every-group-and-every-decision-problem
  
• physics-is-like-brazil-statistics-is-like-chile
  
• why-does-this-guy-have-2-gmail-accounts
  
• thats-what-happens-when-you-try-to-run-the-world-while-excluding-99-8-of-the-population
  
• Robert Waldmann on allais-paradox-ii-do-two-wrongs-make-a-right , a-complete-set-of-subjective-probabilities-bayes-formula-overconfidence-and-over-reaction-to-new-information
• Kaiser Fang on the-election-could-have-been-called-much-earlier , contaminated-science

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on favorite-fiction-of-2024

vox wonk

• birth-timing-and-spacing-implications-parental-leave-dynamics-and-child-penalties
  
• global-uncertainty-reduces-innovation-renewable-energy
  
• generative-ai-replacement-human-coders-large-scale-complex-text-analysis-new-evidence
  
• civil-society-beyond-markets-and-states-tracking-100-years-economic-research
  
• anonymity-and-identity-online
  
• visible-hand-state-industrial-policies-emerging-markets
  
• green-dilemma-monetary-policy
  
• rise-services-exports-new-pathways-growth
  
• monetary-policy-response-tariff-shocks
  
• stronger-patent-protection-and-its-effect-innovation-and-market-power
  
• special-economic-zones-and-slow-path-regional-convergence
  

social Media

 I agree on banning social media for those under 16.

I have two suggestions on how to do it.

1. Leave it up to the companies afterall it is their platforms
2. let parents decide by giving them an app to say yea or nay to what their children can look at

Hmm a heatwave puts pressure on the Grid

 In NSW we are officially in a heatwave. It is expected to get to 38c where I am today.

Why is the system under pressure you ask. Well the darned coalfired power stations actually. Not only do units break down with monotonous regularity they need to be serviced more often!

Although you won't be surprised to hear sky after dark blaming renewables!

I even heard someone on radio this morning blaming the government for closing down Liddell. two problems here. It occurred on the previous government's watch and it was closed by its owner AGL not the government!

Just for a bonus not-fit-for-purpose-labor-kicks-off-rewrite-of-electricity-market-rules-to-keep-pace-with-renewables

now that was a defeat!

 India whupped us in the first test on a pitch that should have favoured us.

what to learn?

Australia

• Our top order crumbled again. Alas this is becoming a consistent pattern.
• Our fast bowlers are no longer fast. No-one looked to get beyond 140k. They are close to ending their careers. Will they make the ashes? Older legs get tired earlier than young legs.
• We were lost in the headspace after the second day

India

• They won easily with some of their best players missing
• Bumrah was a good captain as well as a great bowler
• Rana bowls between 135 and 145k. I don't get it.
• Sundar is no Ashwin

Replacing out of form batsmen is hard when you look at Shield results. I always thought the Indian batsmen had techniques more suited to australia than India and it showed.

This could be a ripper of a series

okay we have an aging team both in batting and bowling. Smith is in clear decline perhaps Manus is too. Both have suspect techniques that the eyes have overcome however there is no-one in shield cricket challenging any spots.

We do have some young fast bowlers we may need to try out.  Match is not an allrounder and money for jam in australia as Niti showed.

I am thinking the Indian attack needs to Bumrah to work well if they are to win. this will not occur in evert test. On the other hand their batting will only get stronger. Their major weakness in recent times is to pick bowlers who can bat and leave out specialist batsman. If they do that against us they will lose.

If we do not win the saynighter and Brisbane then we shall lose the series.

Problems in cutting expenditure in the USA

 Two articles on problems in cutting expenditure in the USA.

first Jeffrey Frankel

second Dylan Mathews

Musk has debt interest was wasteful expenditure!!

Around the Traps 22/11/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michael West on from-whistheblower-to-whipping-boy-richard-boyle-punished-for-playing-by-the-rules Thanks Nick
• Daniel Ghezelbash and Anna Talbot on another-rushed-migration-bill-would-give-the-government-sweeping-powers-to-deport-potentially-thousands-of-people
• Ross Gittins on memo-to-rba-if-wages-growth-isnt-the-problem-what-is
• Andrew Norton on the-coalition-will-block-the-student-caps-bill-brace-yourself-for-more-uncertainty-over-international-students
• Katya Johanson on the-coalition-will-block-the-student-caps-bill-brace-yourself-for-more-uncertainty-over-international-students
• croaking cassandra on what-does-reciprocity-mean-in-new-zealand-laws
• Greg Jericho on australia-interest-rates-rba-economy-inflation-comment-disposable-income
• Daniel Argus on the-government-has-introduced-laws-for-its-social-media-ban-but-key-details-are-still-missing
• Michelle Grattan on australias-230-billion-future-fund-encouraged-to-invest-in-housing-energy-transition-infrastructure

OZ Climate

• renewables-superpower-or-climate-coward-albanese-needs-to-make-a-choice-before-election
  
• will-solar-succeed-where-nuclear-failed-and-become-too-cheap-to-meter
  
• quiet-revolution-wind-and-solar-slash-electricity-emissions-by-40-pct-in-just-10-years
  
• do-we-really-need-a-rooftop-solar-button-and-are-households-treated-fairly-with-pv-batteries-and-evs
  
• south-australia-may-underwrite-gas-generators-in-new-plan-to-back-up-100-pct-net-renewables-target
  
• victorias-sec-to-build-states-first-government-owned-solar-and-battery-project
  
• origin-adds-more-storage-to-eraring-battery-making-it-biggest-in-australia-and-one-of-worlds-largest
  
• beyond-poles-and-wires-transgrid-signs-contract-with-big-batteries-to-boost-capacity-on-constrained-grid
  
• construction-to-begin-at-giant-battery-in-act-as-plans-unveiled-for-even-bigger-battery-at-hazelwood
  
• Graham Readfearn on sky-news-documentary-real-cost-of-net-zero-fails-to-live-up-to-its-hubris-with-viewers-paying-the-price-ntwnfb
• John Quiggin on friendly-fire-a-nuclear-push-by-allies-at-cop29-poses-a-sticky-problem-for-albanese

Northern America

• Andrew Prokop on trump-recess-appointments-cabinet-adjourn-senate-ed-whelan , biden-inflation-record-worse-unpopular-mistakes
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on gop-trump-republicans-senate-gaetz-rfk-scary
• noahopinion on 7-reasons-democrats-should-be-optimistic , why-targeted-tariffs-are-more-effective-than-broad-tariffs , america-doesnt-really-have-a-working-class , what-drove-asian-and-hispanic-voters-to-the-right-in-2024
• popular  information on the-corporate-insurrection-of-2024 Thanks Nick
• AI supremacy on how-silicon-valley-is-prepping-for-war Thanks Nick
• Richard Hanania on politics-is-full-of-bad-people-who-do-good-things Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on how-to-make-doge-work
• Jay Michaelson on trump-fire-federal-workers-project-2025-schedule-f
• Ellen Ioannes on trump-federal-reserve-powell-interest-rates-congress-inflation
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-how-institutions-interact-with-exchange-rates-after-the-2024-us-presidential-election-new-high-frequency-evidence , natural-but-stupid-experiments
• macromania on blanchard-on-trumponomics
• Tyler Cowen on the-economic-powers-of-the-hhs-secretary
• Nitish Pahwa on tulsi-gabbard-trump-cabinet-religion-hindu-nationalism-modi-putin
• Jonathan Chait on pete-hegseth-books-trump
• David Cole on what-could-stop-donald-trump

Europe

• Francesco Taylor on germanys-post-holocaust-moral-remaking-is-being-challenged-by-wars-in-gaza-and-ukraine-and-the-rise-of-the-far-right
• Ian Hill on what-does-trump-s-return-mean-america-s-relations-russia
• Tim Harford on beard-taxes-and-other-lessons-for-rachel-reeves
• Fred Kaplan on trump-biden-russia-putin-ukraine-zelensky-missiles
• Jon Richardson on why-did-the-us-change-its-mind-on-ukraine-firing-missiles-into-russia-and-will-it-impact-the-war
• Eglantine Staunton on has-time-finally-come-european-defence
• Menzie Chinn on russia-policy-rate-at-21-official-inflation-rate-at-10-m-m-annualized

Asia

• Ali Mamouri on will-trump-renew-maximum-pressure-against-iran-or-could-there-be-an-opening-for-dialogue
• Aarti Betigeri on why-india-s-festive-season-could-hold-key-soft-power-gains
• Gabriela Bernal on why-getting-pyongyang-back-negotiating-table-will-be-harder-trump-s-second-term
• Riley Duke and Alexandre Dayant on china-s-pacific-aid-rebounding-recalibrated
• Catherine Gegout on icc-issues-arrest-warrant-for-benjamin-netanyahu-over-alleged-war-crimes
• Vaughn Cruikshank and Brendon Hyman on why-is-cricket-so-popular-on-the-indian-sub-continent
• Khang Vu on will-north-korea-annoy-china-having-sent-troops-fight-alongside-russia

Wonk

• Brad De Long on social-theory-for-the-mid-21st-century-cc
• noahopinion on liberalism-is-the-rebellion-now-38b
• Bill Haskell on an-indirect-cost-of-manufacturing-in-mexico-vs-the-united-states
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-anti-incumbent-wave-is-real-but-its-not-really-about-inflation
• the conversable economist on a-policy-tradeoff-between-speed-and-fraud
• Mainly Macro on freedom-of-speech-and-media-regulation
• Daniel Flitton on cat-astrophe-what-happens-when-dirty-minded-north-koreans-meet-iranian-nuclear
• Joel Eissenberg on javier-milei-argentinas-trump

General

• David Parkinson and Jeffrey Hodgson on egg-shaped-galaxies-may-be-aligned-to-the-black-holes-at-their-hearts-astronomers-find
• Charlotte Dunn and Jayne Knight on what-was-the-deal-with-julius-caesar-and-cleopatras-situationship
• Katie Lee and Rachel Neale on yes-you-still-need-to-use-sunscreen-despite-what-youve-heard-on-tiktok

Climate

• James empty blog on can-we-reliably-reconstruct-mid-pliocene-warm-period
• Imraan Valodia et al on developing-nations-are-least-responsible-for-climate-change-but-cop-it-worst-will-the-cop29-climate-talks-tackle-this-injustice
• Selwyn Parker on long-way-go-zero
• skeptical science on fix-paris-failures , sabin33-03-are-solar-panels-generating-too-much-waste
• open mind on climate-change-bad-news
• real climate on operationalizing-climate-science
• Brad De Long on lecture-notes-51-global-warming
• Miah Hammond-Errey on tech-ai-are-changing-climate-equation-worse
• open mind on how-fast-2 , how-far
• Keller Kopf on humans-are-killing-off-the-old-and-wise-animals-that-hold-nature-together-heres-what-must-change
• Dennis Wamstead and David Schissel on nuclear-hype-ignores-high-cost-long-timelines

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• code-it-patterns-in-data-edition
  
• anti-immigration-attitudes-they-didnt-want-a-bunch-of-hungarian-refugees-coming-in-the-1950s
  
• 5-different-reasons-why-its-important-to-include-a-pre-treatment-variable-when-designing-and-analyzing-a-randomized-experiment
  
• behavioural-insights-team-for-the-loss
  
• the-village-voice-in-the-1960s-70s-and-blogging-in-the-early-2000s
  
• andrew-gelman-is-not-the-science-police-because-there-is-no-such-thing-as-the-science-police
  
• freakometrics on the role of government versus private sector provision of insurance

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• institutional economics on how-jewish-was-ayn-rand-a-new-rand-biography
• Tyler Cowen on the-new-roger-penrose-biography

Vox Wonk

• reviewing-ecbs-monetary-policy-strategy-age-polycrisis
  
• information-can-reduce-long-term-financial-consequences-part-time-work-mothers
  
• design-based-fiscal-stimulus-transfers-evidence-and-macro-implications
  
• ideological-roots-technological-transformation-meiji-japan-versus-imperial-china
  
• central-banks-and-absorption-international-shocks
  
• corporate-investment-europe-snapshot-2024-eib-investment-survey
  
• new-history-wealth-inequality-west
  
• firm-climate-investment-glass-half-full
  
• role-economic-judgement-enhancing-machine-learning-models-recession-prediction
  
• economic-activity-gains-traction-amid-easing-inflation-high-uncertainty-looms-over
  
• how-g20-can-prevent-next-pandemic
  
• merging-structural-and-reduced-form-models-forecasting
  
• why-urban-wage-premium-women-no-longer-larger-premium-men-britain
  

Uhlmann flops

 I had better things to do last night but Graham Readfearn helps us understand what Chris Uhlmann obviously doesn't.

Just a couple of things. Blaming renewables for the large rise in energy prices is obvious lying.

The private sector do not want to build coal fired power stations, see no future in nuclear and only want gas fired power stations for firming.

The present government does not have a 100% target of renewables. The target is 82%!

We have yet to experience a blackout because of renewables. We have had black outs because of units breaking down' however. This of course has been blamed on renewables by Sky afterdark and others.

Fancy that

Was there a jewhunt?

 I have read and watched quite a few programs outlining how there was a jewhunt in Amsterdam.

Except there wasn't. The alleged evidence was quite the opposite. See Mediawatch.

It was not palestinians violently attacking jewish football fans. In fact it was jewish football fans attacking palestinians.

Whoopsy how did that occur. I really do not know. It is interesting the UK Sky news completely changed how it presented this to go from being accurate to be completely inaccurate.

Indeed I think we can confidently say this all started by jewish football fans started this whole things by their actions and words. This does not mean the actions of Palestinians in amsterdam were  okay. they were not.

I go back to my main question. Why di so many media organisations get it wrong. The other thing is wil they learn from this at all

NATO expansion had nothing to do with russia's invasion

 One of the excuses Russian apologists ( or worse)  such as Tulsi Gabbard frequently talk about is that the expansion of NATO meant Russia had no choice but to invade Ukraine.

This is complete BS.

NATO like most military treaties is a DEFENSIVE treaty. It can ONLY be invoked if the country is attacked. It cannot be invoked if  country attacks another country.

Therefore NATO posed no threat to Russia. The only problem Russia faced is a lot of countries wanted to join NATO to ensure Russia did not attack them. The invasion of Ukraine showed these fears were well justified.

The clown show arrives

 If it wasn't serious it would be hilarious.

The person nominated to head Defence, the largest bureaucracy in the USA, has NO administrative experience. 

The person nominated to head up national intelligence has NO experience at all and blabs out constantly russian propaganda on Ukraine.

The person to head up Homeland Security has little experience in administering a large department.

The person to head up Health and Human services is a nutter who is an antivaxxer nor likes fluoride in water for starters!

His nomination  for attorney general could not even get a start up job at the DOJ and has a mere two that's right two years experience as a lawyer.

And you think elon Musk is intelligent? Try THIS and THIS for starters.

Trump has chosen loyalty over competence and it will end badly. As I have said previously his economic program is incoherent. When it fails as it will there wil be quite a few firings.

I might end by saying Trump is simply an old fashioned mafia boss. Just do what he says. The problem he and his minions have is that prosecutions needs both the law and evidence behind that law. They do not have it and again this too will mean sackings!

Around the Traps 15/11/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

• Martin Murray on bill-kelty-the-romantic-warrior-talks-tough Thanks Nick
• Jon Beves and William Donald on black-balls-on-sydney-beaches-are-likely-fatbergs-showing-traces-of-human-faeces-methamphetamine-and-pfas-new-analysis
• Ross Gittins on how-we-measure-recessions-is-wrong , will-trump-be-disastrous-for-our-economy-I-doubt-it , education-is-leading-the-two-sides-of-politics-to-switch-sides , how-can-jobs-and-joblessness-both-be-going-up
• Kevin Bonham on the-pressure-valve-does-defeat-of-same-state-governments-help-or-hinder-federal-governments
• Susannah Patton on cost-albanese-skipping-prabowo-s-inauguration
• Mark the Ballot on new-polls-newspoll-and-resolve
• Greg Jericho on private-health-insurance-is-a-dud-thats-why-a-majority-of-australians-dont-have-it , rba-wage-price-index-interest-rates-inflation-september-quarter
• Anne Twomey on how-the-federal-governments-misinformation-bill-might-impede-freedom-of-speech
• Phillippa Specker et al on we-knew-offshore-detention-was-bad-for-the-mental-health-of-people-seeking-asylum-our-new-research-shows-exactly-how-bad
• Ross Garnaut on us-election-australia-trade-climate-donald-trump-ross-garnaut-economy
• Michelle Grattan on former-us-ambassador-accuses-sky-news-of-creating-a-self-licking-ice-cream-to-attack-kevin-rudd
• Dennis Muller on how-should-australian-media-cover-the-next-federal-election-lessons-from-the-us-presidential-race
• David Schafer on will-intelligence-review-bring-dio-light
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-it-s-populists-vs-plutocrats-trump2
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-labor-loses-lead

Oz climate

• land-deal-signed-for-deep-storage-to-create-broken-hill-mini-grid-but-network-rules-still-stand-in-the-way
  
• not-always-a-great-quality-leading-wind-developer-may-switch-from-western-to-chinese-turbines
  
• wind-and-solar-take-record-93-7-per-cent-share-of-australias-biggest-coal-grid
  
• nsw-biggest-winner-wind-gets-priority-over-solar-as-bowen-lands-renewable-tender-deals
  
• terrific-news-battery-boom-and-rebound-in-wind-projects-put-renewables-target-back-on-track
  
• australian-wind-and-solar-project-sized-at-remarkable-70-gigawatts-as-big-as-the-countrys-main-grid
  
• australian-wind-and-solar-project-sized-at-remarkable-70-gigawatts-as-big-as-the-countrys-main-grid
  
• the-mega-battery-projects-jockeying-for-position-in-renewable-zones-that-might-be-too-small
  
• Peter Hannan on renewable-energy-scare-campaign-adds-apples-and-oranges-to-get-500bn

Northern America

• institutional economic on so-much-winning-youre-not-going-to-believe-it
• Menzie Chinn on analyses-on-the-impacts-of-trumps-proposed-ultimate-solution , did-the-trade-balance-improve-with-tariffs-did-imports-fall-did-ag-exports-rise , further-dollar-appreciation-implications
• noahopinion on identity-politics-isnt-working , americans-hate-inflation-more-than-they-hate-unemployment , the-educated-professional-class-is-out-of-touch-with-middle class-america , the-blue-cities-must-be-fixed
• Nadira Goffe on election-results-2024-trump-harris-race-black-women
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-tariffs-inflation-economy
• Tyler Cowen on tariff-sentences-to-ponder, new-results-on-tariff-history , j-zachary-mazlish-on-median-wages-under-biden
• Brad De Long on 2024-election-surveys-show-trump-voters-misinformed-on-major-issues
• Mainly Macro on how-could-they-vote-for-him
• Joel Eissenberg on the-economics-of-deportation
• Abdallah Fayyad on trump-harris-biden-palestinians-gaza-election
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03-in-october
• Astra Taylor et al on the-return-of-trump-v
• Mark Stern on matt-gaetz-donald-trump-attorney-general-disaster
• Fred Kaplan on trump-cabinet-tulsi-gabbard-hegseth-defense-military-intelligence

Europe

• Katherina Karcher on why-the-german-government-collapsed-and-what-to-expect-now
• Francesco Taylor on germanys-post-holocaust-moral-remaking-is-being-challenged-by-the-rise-of-the-far-right-and-wars-in-gaza-and-ukraine
• Marcus Colla on the-claustrophobia-of-german-politics
• Fred Kaplan on trump-election-results-patrushev-putin-rubio-russia-ukraine

Asia

• Ooi Hin on malaysia-s-democratic-transition-why-it-matters-southeast-asia-muslim-world
• Sussannah Patton on thai-foreign-policy-twilight-zone
• Stephanie Fillion on declining-fortunes-afghanistan-s-women
• Hannah Lord on southeast-asia-ready-regional-power-grid

Wonk

• persuasion on how-to-fix-dei Thanks Nick
• Lynn Goldsworthy et al on fundamental-governing-principle-antarctic-treaty-system-under-threat
• the conversable economist on are-theme-park-rides-a-giffen-good , nordhaus-reflects-on-technology-and-climate-change
• Tyler Cowen on what-do-unions-do
• Mathew Sussex on a-grand-bargain-with-putin-to-confrontation-with-china-3-ways-trump-may-change-americas-place-in-the-world
• Rose Luo et al on can-you-die-from-long-covid-the-answer-is-not-so-simple
• Geoff Raby on west-s-unfounded-chussia-anxiety
• Karen Thompson on the-incas-used-mysterious-stringy-objects-called-khipus-to-record-data-we-just-got-a-step-closer-to-understanding-them
• Brad De Long on are-the-tech-titans-mighty-enough-to-break-the-threatened-NVDIA/AI-fetters
• John Voight on a-41-million-digit-prime-number-is-the-biggest-ever-found-but-mathematicians-search-for-perfection-will-continue
• Max Sawicky on politics-after-fascism-debate
• Scott French on what-are-tariffs

General

• Scott McLean on with-its-10th-coach-in-a-decade-is-manchester-united-trapped-in-a-fixes-that-fail-cycle
• Tim Harford on if-i-want-to-get-fitter-should-i-wear-a-fitness-watch

Climate

• Ryan Neelam on what-trump-s-win-means-global-climate-negotiations
• Matt McDonald on the-cop29-climate-talks-are-about-to-kick-off-in-baku-azerbaijan-heres-what-to-expect
• Wesley morgan and Jim Newell on 10-reasons-why-us-president-elect-donald-trump-cant-derail-global-climate-action
• David Appell on copernicus-2024-likely-first-year-above-1.5C
• moyhu on giss-october-global-temperature-up-from-september
• ocean acidification on drivers-of-biological-diversity-and-responses-to-global-changes-in-marine-invertebrates
• essays concerning on can-king-donald-hold-back-the-green-tide
• skeptical science on 2024-above-15C , 20-fact-briefs-published
• Pep Canadell et al on global-carbon-emissions-inch-upwards-in-2024-despite-progress-on-evs-renewables-and-deforestation
• Adam Hanieh on the-climate-finance-racket
• Umair Irfan on cop29-climate-change-emissions-rising-trump-baku

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• bad-science-as-genre-fiction
  
• two-spans-of-the-bridge-of-inference
  
• if-you-wanted-to-be-a-top-tennis-player-in-the-late-1930s-there-was-a-huge-benefit-to-being-a-member-of-____-or-to-being-named
  
• polling-by-asking-people-about-their-neighbors-when-does-this-work
  
• prediction-markets-in-2024-and-poll-aggregation-in-2008
  
• meta-analysis-with-a-single-study
  
• specification-curve-analysis-and-the-multiverse
  
• make-a-hypothesis-about-what-you-expect-to-see-every-step-of-the-way-a-manifesto
  
• objects-of-the-class-david-owen
  
• calibration-for-everyone-and-every-decision-maybe
  
• Freakometrics on algorithms and bureaucracy, selection bias in insurance

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• dangerous-liaisons-debt-supply-and-convenience-yield-spillovers-euro-area
  
• role-shipping-costs-platform-retail-competition
  
• european-court-calls-foul-fifas-transfer-fee-regulations
  
• russias-economic-war-propaganda
  
• trade-spillovers-industrial-policy
  
• trade-and-inclusiveness
  
• beneath-surface-what-medieval-mobility-reveals-about-intergenerational-wealth
  
• enhancing-resilience-and-security-eu-supply-chains
  
• financial-accelerator-within-and-between-countries
  
• womens-political-representation-matters-evidence-school-closures-during-pandemic
  
• bad-samaritans-foreign-aid
  
• financing-europes-grand-ideas
  
• heterogeneous-effects-monetary-tightening-response-energy-price-shocks
  
• evaluation-new-international-policy-instrument-curb-offshore-tax-evasion-global
  
• rethinking-pension-reform-new-cepr-ebook
  

Wages data supports a rate cut

 The wages data was released yesterday. It is rising at 3.5%. This is consistent with a 2-3% inflation target.

I tend to agree with most but not all of what Greg Jericho says. 

I am disappointed with the RBA. They appear on the surface to lack any corporate knowledge of the recession we had to have or of what occurs in labour markets.

Inflation is falling, the wage data backs that up. so do business surveys. so does a look inside the CPI.

Unfortunately we have to wait until february for a rate cut.

The ALP is NOT an incumbent government.

 Almost all governments who were in government when Covid hit have lost elections. ( Switzerland is the odd man out.) Inflation which rose rapidly because of supply chain problems and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to be the main culprit of why these governments have fallen.

Inflation was rising way before the ALP was elected. This was the result of the above however we can say the RBA was way too slow in raising rates  and the previous LNP government di not attempt any fiscal consolidation following the pandemic.

Now it could well be the case the ALP is blamed for this but this can only occur if the ALP are incompetent at political messaging.

They inherited a large budget deficit. they made some minor corrections and the budget balanced for two years. The structural deficit only marginally fell.

We shall see if the ALP is good or bad at political messaging soon!

Russia's war propaganda

 a really interesting article on russia and its illegal invasion of Ukraine.

There will be a blue wave in the 2026 mid-terms

 I have never read so much crap as I have read about the Presidential election.

Trump actually got less votes than when he easily lost to biden. The Democrats went backwards in a much larger way. 

His economic plan is incoherent. His tax and spending plans will blow up the deficit and US debt. however that is a medium term problem for the FED.

Increasing tariffs by 20% is both inflationary and contractionary. He thinks it will boost the economy. There will be fireworks and sackings when this does not eventuate.

Mass Deportations will affect the economy. It costs billions as well.

Thus in the short run the FED will have to increase not reduce interest rates in the not to distant future.

The political problems will be the increase in inflations and business costs of the tariffs. The other thing most people believe that mass deportations will only affect murders and criminals. what happens when there are labour shortages in Las Vegas or Californian vineyards.

Trump of course never make mistakes so look out for a  lot of sackings and just remember how chaotic it was last time.

A blue wave is almost a certainty!

Around the Traps 8/11/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andrew Podger on health-department-must-listen-to-these-lessons-from-our-covid-19-experience Thanks Nick
• Ross Gittins on how-weak-competition-forces-up-food-prices , we-owe-more-than-we-realise-to-our-best-econocrats, you-can-blame-albanese-for-all-our-woes-except-our-cost-of-living
• Kerrie Sadiq on 31-of-companies-are-not-paying-tax-in-australia-how-do-they-do-it
• Mark the Ballot on update-opinion-polls-and-betting-market
• Daniel Flitton on penny-wong-quizzed-about-trump-again-again-again

OZ Climate

• broken-hill-fiasco-shows-why-we-need-to-rethink-the-grid-and-turn-it-upside-down
  
• we-need-lots-of-wind-as-well-as-batteries-to-move-peak-prices-lower
  
• death-spiral-network-blows-up-renewable-gas-claims-wants-to-hit-consumers-for-cost-of-stranded-assets
  
• big-batteries-lead-renewable-charge-as-record-45-gigawatts-of-new-capacity-seeks-grid-connection
  
• grazing-sheep-among-solar-panels-could-produce-higher-quality-wool-study-finds
  
• australias-best-performing-wind-and-solar-farms-in-october
  
• australia-reaches-record-monthly-renewable-share-of-47-4-per-cent
  
• ausgrid-pitches-its-first-big-batteries-for-newcastle-and-sydney
  
• not-always-a-great-quality-leading-wind-developer-may-switch-from-western-to-chinese-turbines
  
• solar-pushes-renewables-to-record-share-of-grid-coal-hits-new-low-despite-highest-spring-demand
  
• nsw-biggest-winner-wind-gets-priority-over-solar-as-bowen-lands-renewable-tender-deals
  
• danish-giant-launches-australian-renewables-play-with-6-gw-of-wind-solar-and-battery-plans
  
• Roger Dargaville on yes-burning-gas-is-bad-for-the-climate-but-keeping-it-in-australias-energy-mix-is-sensible
• Jan Kreibach and Richard Kingsford on dams-have-taken-half-the-water-from-australias-second-biggest-river-and-climate-change-will-make-it-even-worse
• Graham Readfearn on dick-smith-abc-radio-renewables-rant-electricity-prices-ntwnf
• Tom Barber on climate-calamity-fine-line-between-fact-fiction

Northern America

• Torsten Slok on what-happened-to-long-and-variable-lags Thanks Brad
• Drezners world on what-if-the-united-states-continues-to-get-better Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on democrats-fixed-many-of-the-problems-of-the-early-2020s , trumpism-is-kakistocracy , why-on-earth-does-trump-want-to-cancel-the-chips-act , identity-politics-isnt-working
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-2024-democracy-threat-orban-second-term
• the conversable economist on a-benefits-cliff-in-washington-dc
• Geoff Boucher on is-donald-trump-a-fascist-no-hes-a-new-brand-of-authoritarian
• Samuel Garrett on the-us-presidential-election-is-too-close-to-call-dont-blame-the-polls
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-callais-louisiana-racial-gerrymander
• Eric Kramer on the-media-and-trumps-second-term-agenda
• Tyler Cowen on the-amazon-nuclear-project
• Alex Hinton on why-so-many-people-voted-for-trump-5-things-to-understand-about-maga-supporters-thinking
• Daniel Flitton on america-makes-trump-great-again
• Fred Kaplan on trump-election-foreign-policy-ukraine-gaza-nuclear-weapons
• David Frum on trump-wins-second-term-presidency
• Sassan Glasser on donald-trump-wins-a-second-term
• Luiz Romero on why-did-so-many-latino-and-hispanic-voters-help-return-donald-trump-to-power

Europe

• Jessica Garnier on could-ukraine-be-heading-toward-a-frozen-conflict-why-so-much-is-hinging-on-the-us-election
• De smog on tory-leader-kemi-badenoch-views-on-climate-change-net-zero
• Adam Simpson on moldova-georgia-serve-geopolitical-bellwethers

Asia

• Nicholas Micinski and Kelsey Norman on israels-ban-on-unrwa-continues-a-pattern-of-politicizing-palestinian-refugee-aid-and-puts-millions-of-lives-at-risk
• Aidan Hehir on gaza-can-the-un-suspend-israel-over-its-treatment-of-palestinians-its-complicated-but-yes
• Julie Gilson on japan-election-voters-took-aim-at-an-untrustworthy-government-beset-by-scandal
• Henry Storey on asean-countries-confront-chinese-export-glut
• Georg Varughese and Iain Haine on chance-reframe-international-engagement-afghanistan

Wonk

• Harold James on trump-fascism-how-it-can-happen-and-what-might-constrain-it Thanks Brad
• Tim Harford on trick-questions-first-instincts-and-the-benefits-of-thinking-twice
• David Dunn on us-election-what-a-trump-victory-would-mean-for-the-rest-of-the-world
• Sarah Scales et al on sudans-civil-war-has-left-at-least-62-000-dead-by-our-estimate-but-the-true-figure-could-be-far-higher
• Mick Ryan on victory-21st-century-conflict
• the conversable economist on how-much-money-from-a-confiscatory-tax-on-the-uber-wealthy , fall-2024-journal-of-economic-perspectives-free-online
• Tyler Cowen on causal-claims-in-economics
• Mainly Macro on the-markets-budget-media-and-electing-a-fascist

General

• Leigh Carriage on i-can-make-a-band-play-like-a-singer-sings-quincy-jones-shaped-our-listening-for-seven-decades

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-are-most-glaciers-growing , sabin33-01-are-electromagnetic-fields-from-solar-farms-harmful-to-human-health
• Pep Canadell and Gustaf Hugelius on the-frozen-carbon-of-the-northern-permafrost-is-on-the-move-we-estimated-by-how-much
• Melanie Pill on it-s-politics-stupid-three-key-reasons-slow-progress-new-un-climate-finance-goal
• moyhu on october-global-surface-templs-up-005c-from-september
• Andrew Freedman on global-temperatures-exceed-paris-target

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• trivia question
• calibration-is-sometimes-sufficient-for-trusting-predictions-what-does-this-tell-us-when-human-experts-use-model-predictions
  
• a-10-swing-in-win-probability-corresponds-approximately-to-a-0-4-swing-in-predicted-vote
  
• violent-science-teacher-makes-ridiculously-unsupported-research-claims-gets-treated-by-legislatures-courts-media-as-expert-on-the-effects-of-homeschooling
  
• crude-bayesian-updating-from-iowa-election-poll
  
• probabilistic-numerics-and-the-folk-theorem-of-statistical-computing
  
• self-reference-and-self-reproduction-of-evidence
  
• jerzy-neyman-commits-the-methodological-attribution-fallacy
  
• reflections-on-the-recent-election
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• traditional-capital-incentives-slow-diffusion-next-generation-technologies
  
• balancing-act-credit-growth-and-risks-ecbs-dividend-ban
  
• patterns-sanctions-russian-individuals
  
• wind-change-cultural-determinants-maternal-labour-supply
  
• cross-border-shopping-evidence-and-welfare-implications-switzerland
  
• politicians-corporate-boards-and-cost-public-procurement
  
• industrial-policy-lessons-shipbuilding
  
• seeing-and-hearing-believing-role-audiovisual-communication-shaping-inflation
  
• non-compete-agreements-tacit-knowledge-and-market-imperfections
  
• double-pricing-greenhouse-gas-emissions-shipping-competitiveness-climate-and-what-do
  
• us-entity-list-restrictions-slow-innovation-chinese-firms-and-their-us-collaborators
  
• impact-trade-anti-globalisation-voting-evidence-france
  
• banks-lose-someone-gains-households-unequal-exposure-financial-distress
  
• broken-link-structural-transformation-jobless-development
  
• changes-firms-service-delivery-post-brexit
  
• joining-competition-policy-trade-and-industrial-policy-lets-get-specific-part-1
  

what happened

 Let's see

Trump is a convicted criminal. It did not matter

Trump led an insurrection . It did not matter

Trump lies like there is no tomorrow. It did not matter

Trump's econom ic program is nots. It did not matter.

Trump wants to prosecute his political opponents. It did not matter.

Harris way outperformed Trump in the campaign. It did not matter

Harris smashed Trump in the edebate. It did not matter

On the economy Steve Rattner showed some graphs on surveys of US voters some time ago on morning joe. They think unemployment is at record highs. It was at record lows. They think inflation is rising to new highs. It is falling within the FED's preferred range. They believe the stock market is at record lows. It is at record highs.

See Andrew Gelman on the election as a bonus.

We do have a problem. Trump is a moron as Rex Tillerson colourfully put it one time. I suspect all hell will break loose. Putting at 20% tariff is madness , is illegal under WTO rules and will exacerbate a world trade war. That plus more severe tariffs on chinese goods and services is bad for the chinese economy and thus ours.

His tax and spending plans  will balloon the deficit offsetting the deflationary effects of putting 'illegal migrants into intern camps and thus severely tightening the labour market.

Look out