Inflation and a bit more

 Mark the Graph gives us INFLATION.  It is doos stuff.

As an added Bonus here is Kevin Bonham on :

• 2024-federal-polling-year-in-review
  
• twitter-vs-bluesky-and-psephosphere
  

Around the Traps 27/12/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Evangeline Mantziorous et al on from-garlic-to-parsley-new-research-reveals-the-herbs-and-spices-australians-love-most
• Ross Gittins on whats-happened-to-cost-of-living-is-trickier-than-you-think
• Kevin Bonham on 2024-federal-polling-year-in-review
• Gareth Hutchens on australia-super-tax-concessions-take-from-poor-give-to-rich
• croaking cassandra on fiscal-failure-and-indifference , the-secretary-to-the-treasury-defending-govt-fiscal-policy
• mark the ballot on end-of-2024-polling-and-betting-market-update
• Greg Jericho on the-awful-truth-at-the-heart-of-australian-housing-policy
• Kevin Bonham on twitter-vs-bluesky-and-psephosphere

OZ Climate

• how-big-utilities-manipulate-the-energy-market-even-with-a-high-share-of-wind-and-solar
  
• solar-switch-off-duttons-nuclear-plan-is-a-declaration-of-war-against-household-energy-systems
  
• snowy-hunter-gas-project-hit-by-more-delays-and-blowouts-with-total-cost-now-more-than-2-billion
  

Northern America

• Shann Wu on trump-fani-willis-shouldnt-be-disqualified-georgia-election
• Michael Steele on trump-cabinet-picks-democracy-test
• Menzie Chinn on trump-cea-nominee-stephan-miran
• Eric Levitz on government-shutdown-fight-spending-bill-trump-musk-house-republicans
• noahopinion on what-are-the-checks-and-balances-on-the-power-of-elon-musk , good-cities-cant-exist-without-public-order , indian-immigration-is-great-for-america
• Brad De Long on project-syndicate-american-idiots
• Clarissa Lim on supreme-court-ethics-senate-report
• Bill Haskell on health-insurance-again-and-this-time-with-krugman
• the conversable economist on take-a-look-at-aapss
• Tyler Cowen on the-importance-of-transportation-for-productivity
• Jahan Jones on trump-government-surveillance-powers
• Charlie Sykes on american-politics-has-an-age-problem

Europe

• Barry Eichengreen on german-economic-crisis-could-break-institutional-logjam Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on putins-central-banker-angers-russian-elite-with-rate-hikes

Asia

• Chris Hayes on israel-gaza-haaretz-report-idf-civilians
• Mohd Yunus on beyond-borders-beyond-loss-how-regional-cooperation-can-safeguard-asia-s
• Kevin Drum on on-the-fence-over-china
• Lingling Wei on chinas bond yields scream the D word Thanks Brad
• Mark Lynch on five-thoughts-on-syrias-unfrozen-conflict Thanks Brad
• Stefan Tarnowski on syria-the-prison-gates-thrown-open
• Robin Wright on the-remarkable-collapse-of-irans-powerful-alliances

Wonk

• the prism on how-empathy-makes-us-cruel-and-crazy Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-trump-threatens-tariffs-against-a-brics-chimera
• Ty Ferguson et al on switching-off-from-work-can-be-difficult-but-taking-a-proper-break-is-good-for-your-health
• Stephen Grenville on us-dollar-deal-explaining-lack-enthusiasm-plaza-accord-redux
• Tim Harford on why-are-governments-so-bad-at-problem-solving
• the conversable economist on more-police-fewer-prisons-and-other-ways-to-reduce-crime , charles-dickens-on-seeing-poverty, charles-dickens-on-management-and-labor
• sandwichman on klaus-fuchs-max-beer-and-our-anonymous-pamphleteer
• noahopinion on yes-americans-are-much-richer-than-japanese
• Kruggers on trumps-great-illusion Thanks Brad
• Konstantine Panegyres on like-your-pet-more-than-people-so-did-some-of-the-greco-romans

General

• Tom Hawking on pitch-perfect-why-listening-to-cricket-on-radio-soothes-a-world-that-wont-hear-sense
• Flora Hui on sunglasses-dont-just-look-good-theyre-good-for-you-too-heres-how-to-choose-the-right-pair
• Laura Driessen on ive-calculated-santas-speed-on-christmas-eve-and-this-is-what-it-would-do-to-rudolphs-nose
• Flora Hui on sunglasses-dont-just-look-good-theyre-good-for-you-too-heres-how-to-choose-the-right-pair
• Themia Nanayakkra et al on from-dead-galaxies-to-mysterious-red-dots-heres-what-the-james-webb-telescope-has-found-in-just-3-years

Climate

• open mind on 30-years-of-sea-level-rise
• this is not cool on greenland-ice-loss-update
• Umair Irfan on 2024-record-warm-spain-climate-flood-disaster-valencia
• essays concerning on greening-our-energy-how-soon-looking-back-and-looking-forward-to-2030-and-beyond-a-laypersons-guide
• skeptical science on ClimateAdam-2024-through-the-eyes-of-a-climate-scientist

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• alzabo
  
• stanford-medical-school-professor-misrepresents-what-i-wrote-but-i-kind-of-understand-where-hes-coming-from
  
• the-marginalization-or-jeffreys-lindley-paradox-its-already-been-resolved
  
• addressing-legitimate-counterarguments-in-a-scientific-review-the-challenge-of-being-an-insider
  
• how-to-cheat-at-codenames-cheating-at-board-games-more-generally
  
• those-are-unnormalized-log-probabilities-not-logits-in-your-neural-networks-final-layer
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• 2024-in-reading-the-enlightened-economist-prize-shortlist
  
• Sophie Gee on horror-satire-tawdry-wealth-and-postcolonial-critique-5-classics-to-catch-up-on-this-summer
• Craig Hamilton on my-year-in-books
• Tyler Cowen on jeffersons-doge-that-was-then-this-is-now , what-ive-been-reading
• Matt Martens on framed-review
• angry bear on book-review-by-the-one-handed-economist
• New Yorker on best-books-2024
• Joel Eissenberg on every-valley-a-seasonal-book-review

Vox Wonk

• political-distrust-and-populist-alt-view-trap
  
• new-way-price-carbon-understanding-social-cost-carbon
  
• us-military-strength-secures-financial-dominance
  
• causal-claims-economics
  
• heat-heat-stress-productivity-and-adaptation-among-firms
  
• labour-market-transitions-greener-economy
  
• doom-loop-and-default-incentives
  
• labour-market-transitions-greener-economy
  
• one-thousand-day-problem
  
• leveraging-ai-navigate-deglobalisation
  

Three GFC movies

 Okay you have plenty of time on your hands.

Here are three good movies to watch about the GFC\

• The Big Short  read the book is it based on as well. He is a great writer!
• Too big to fail
• Margin Call One of the stars is our own Simon Baker

Jethro Tull + the Boss

 It is Christmas day so I give you a christmas song from the Tull. They were simply amazing live!

First live

and then studio. I actually bought this album a long time ago

an added bonus the Boss

a couple of silly things about Christmas

Why of why do we Aussies talk about reindeer, snow etc when christmas arrives as it is stinking hot here most of time

Never mind

1. ive-calculated-santas-speed-on-christmas-eve-and-this-is-what-it-would-do-to-rudolphs-nose
   
2. yes-reindeer-actually-can-have-red-noses-and-other-fascinating-facts-about-this-christmas-icon
   

the ABC

 The ABC has a new Managing director. He was previously head of Nine media ( which has fairfax). Experience in private media is not always an asset in public broadcasting. Starting an office romance is not a good start! We shall see.

They need new presenters on radio, I have always been a fan of Hamish McDonald and still am. He should have had the RN breakfast program. Never mind give him the drive show. Richard glover was great on Sydney radio and his replacement in Chris Bath is genius. Her personality is just right for radion where she has shone before.

I shall leave it at that

The only other recommendation I have is do not get rid of good presenters like they did last year.

Around the Traps 20/12/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on trade-deficits-dont-have-to-be-wicked-unless-you-believe-in-trump , oligopolists-gouge-power-and-gas-prices ,dont-worry-youll-have-enough-in-retirement-except for one thing
• John Quiggin on rba-policy-is-putting-all-our-futures-at-risk
• Mark the Ballot on polls-and-betting-market-update
• Dennis Muller on hugh-marks-is-the-new-managing-director-of-the-abc-is-he-the-right-person-for-the-job
• Greg Jericho on myefo-mid-year-budget-deficit-predicted-albanese-labor-government
• John Hawkins on if-treasury-forecasts-are-right-it-could-be-a-decade-before-australia-is-back-in-black

OZ Climate

• Nikki Hutley on the-coalitions-nuclear-costings-and-their-rubbery-assumptions-take-us-back-to-being-a-climate-pariah
• Thomas Longden on the-coalition-reveals-the-cost-of-its-nuclear-power-plan-but-the-devil-is-in-the-missing-detail
• John Woinarski and Jess Marsh on around-9-000-species-have-already-gone-extinct-in-australia-and-well-likely-lose-another-this-week-new-study
• John Quiggin on more-coal-and-gas-less-renewables-what-a-nuclear-power-plan-for-australia-would-really-mean
• Gabrielle Kuiper on how-rapid-implementation-flexible-exports-could-maximise-rooftop-solar , flexible-exports-smart-move-solar
• Amandine Dennis-Ryan on prioritising-methane-abatement-makes-economic-sense
• Shoklar Poddar and Merlinde Kay on heatwaves-and-bushfires-can-be-a-dangerous-mix-for-the-electricity-grid-heres-how-to-shore-up-your-supplies-this-summer
• biggest-losers-from-coalitions-nuclear-plan-will-be-australias-4-million-solar-households-industry-says
  
• you-cant-charge-your-battery-and-your-car-at-same-timedutton-does-not-have-a-clue-about-energy
  
• solar-switch-off-duttons-nuclear-plan-is-a-declaration-of-war-against-household-energy-systems
  
• audit-shows-renewables-driving-down-wholesale-power-prices-in-state-where-targets-to-be-scrapped
  
• wind-and-solar-output-records-tumble-as-grid-demand-hits-new-highs-in-midst-of-heatwave
  
• solar-switch-off-duttons-nuclear-plan-is-a-declaration-of-war-against-household-energy-systems
  
• flexible-exports-vital-to-the-value-of-rooftop-pv-and-could-help-avoid-the-big-solar-button
  
• eye-glasses-for-the-grid-new-rules-pave-way-for-consumer-energy-to-compete-with-coal-and-gas
  
• solar-swing-state-from-nearly-too-much-grid-demand-to-warnings-of-not-enough-in-less-than-a-day
  
• precipitous-builder-of-australias-biggest-battery-sees-big-cost-falls-compares-grid-to-pearl-necklace
  

Northern America

• Kruggers on the-fraudulence-of-waste-fraud-and-abuse ,will-trump-be-called-on-his-inflation-lieThanks Brad
• William Barber and jonathan wilson-Hartgrove on north-carolina-republicans-veto-cooper-stein
• Yascha Mounk on there-is-no-surplus-elite-in-america Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on trump-tariffs-are-going-to-make-our-country-rich ,maciver-institute-does-international-trade-be-very-afraid
• noahopinion on why-are-so-many-americans-acting-like-a-pack-of-ghouls , america-is-losing-the-physical-technologies-of-the-future
• Joel Eissenberg on will-doge-be-an-exercise-in-futility
• Nardine Alnemr et al on donald-trump-crypto-capital-planet
• Nicole Narea on trump-business-truth-social-crypto-liv-hotel-conflicts
• Jeet Heer on politics/trump-authentic-american-berserk
• Norman Eisen on abc-trump-defamation-settlement-what-it-means
• Tyler Cowen on thetriumph-of-politics
• Ellen Ioannes on trump-media-lawsuits-abc-slapp-des-moines-register
• Phillip's newsletter on trump-and-abandoning-ukraine thanks Brad
• Alexandre Dayant on what-trump-second-term-holds-global-development

Europe

• Barry Eichengreen on german-economic-crisis-could-break-institutional-logjam thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on freezing-russian-assets-if-not-now-when
• Catherine Wilson on romania-s-presidential-election-triggers-uncertainty-europe-ukraine-its-allies

Asia

• Institutional economics on markets-grade-the-ccps-economic-work
• Mark O'Connell on israels-revenge-an-interview-with-rashid-khalidi Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-diminishing-impact-of-exchange-rates-on-chinas-exports , how-competitive-is-china
• Izzah Ibrahim on diplomacy-southeast-asian-way
• Avyshay Artsy and Noel King on syria-assad-civil-war-refugees
• Kirsten Han on southeast-asia-s-death-penalty-laws-ultimate-political-game
• Scott Lucas on who-is-syrias-new-prime-minister-and-what-will-he-do
• Joshua Keating on china-taiwan-conflict
• Aiman Saikal on a-bitter-rivalry-is-emerging-in-the-middle-east-between-two-old-adversaries-over-the-future-of-syria
• Ved Shinde on indians-are-streets-ahead-their-government-foreign-policy
• Roger Shanahan on telling-israel-the-killing-must-stop-in-gaza-is-not-antisemitic
• Rintaro Nishimura on opposition-party-could-hold-deciding-vote-japan-s-national-security-policy
• Ben Mathis-Lilley on 2024-election-why-did-harris-lose-democrats

Wonk

• Homo Sum on liberalism-is-a-plural-noun Thanks Brad
• Robin Hanson on conquest-and-liberation-of-academia Thanks Nick
• Ruth Taylor on the-big-thing-people-miss-when-thinking-about-values Thanks Nick
• lost tempo on metacrisis-what-metacrisis Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on what-can-we-learn-from-fraud-and-folly
• Mick Ryan on taiwan-ukraine-learning-right-lessons
• Mainly Macro on after-neoliberalism-dynamics-of-transformation
• Sarah Ryding et al on shrinking-wings-bigger-beaks-birds-are-reshaping-themselves-in-a-warming-world
• Mark Pierce on what-makes-remarkable-political-oration
• noahopinion on macroeconomics-the-predator-of-foolish-regimes

General

• Brian Thornton on santa-claus-was-inspired-by-a-real-figure-who-fought-against-miscarriages-of-justice
• Will Jeffrey on fantasia-2000-celebrating-25-years-of-a-concertless-film-in-search-of-a-concert
• Laura Driessen on when-you-wish-upon-a-star-is-it-already-dead-an-astronomer-crunches-the-numbers
• Luke Barnes on astronomers-world-first-discovery-twin-stars-trapped-in-galactic-black-hole-orbit
• Tyler Cowen on is-indian-food-the-worlds-best

Climate

• David Appell on atmospheric-methane-level-accelerating , earths-albedo-is-decreasing-due-to-fewer-low-clouds
• renew economy on is-big-tech-going-all-in-on-nuclear-google-and-microsoft-have-pledged-45-billion-spend-on-renewables
• Andrew Freedman on climate-change-records-surprise-scientists
• skeptical science on how-much-worry-AMOC-collapse
• open mind on truth-about-sea-level-along-the-eastern-u-s-a

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-most-interesting-part-of-the-story-is-that-the-publisher-went-through-all-these-steps-of-reviewing-and-revising-if-they-just-want-to-make-money-by-publishing-crap-why-bother-engaging-outside-re
  
• the-theory-and-practice-of-oligarchical-collectivism
  
• the-exceptions-nancy-hopkins-mit-and-the-fight-for-women-in-science
  
• iterative-imputation
  
• applications-of-bayesian-variational-inference
  
• are-they-gonna-make-him-pay-back-the-19-million
  
• how-did-the-press-do-on-that-black-spatula-story
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on the-nvidia-way
• Jo Case on what-will-you-be-reading-this-summer-we-asked-6-avid-readers

vox wonk

• investigation-economic-slowdown-euro-area
  
• climate-change-causes-conflict-how-policy-can-respond
  
• why-population-ageing-demands-looking-beyond-chronological-age
  
• misperceptions-and-demand-democracy-under-authoritarianism
  
• high-moments-superstar-exporters
  
• social-mobility-and-inequality-new-evidence-imperial-china
  
• chinas-military-rise-comparative-military-spending-china-and-us
  
• climate-change-central-banks-and-monetary-policy-trade-offs
  
• chinese-plastic-waste-import-ban-lessons-eu-policy
  
• political-distrust-and-populist-alt-view-trap
  
• chinese-infrastructure-lending-and-africas-global-value-chain-participation
  

MYEFO

 It was released yesterday.

Here are two views

1. myefo-mid-year-budget-deficit-predicted-albanese-labor-government
   
2. if-treasury-forecasts-are-right-it-could-be-a-decade-before-australia-is-back-in-black
   

My only comment is neither party has responded to the permanent new high of government spending. We need more tax.although the Opposition talks a big game they never say what spending they would cut. Just remember in government they cut diddly squat.

The only way to get the budget back into balance is to do something with tax!

Rooftop Solar

 HERE  and HERE are two recent articles concerning rooftop solar.

The first shows up the incompatibility of rooftop solar with baseload power. IMHO it will kill Dutton's 'plan'.

The second examines why rooftop solar is not being used as much as it should afterall it is the cheapest power going around!

Enjoy

Late HERE

Ross Gittins on high electricity charges

 Ross Gittins has an interesting column on electricity pricing.

Its more price gouging than the Ukraine/Russian war

The Coalition's nuclear program

 I won't say much except to say the ALP is not promising public monies and the coalition is yet no-one is talking about this. Also rooftop solar would take a hit. There would be a dutton tax on rooftop solar because it is incompatible with base load power but not dispatchable power.

• Nikki Hutley
• Sophie Vorrath
• David Leitch
• Johanna Bowyer
• Peter Hannan
• Adam Morton 
• Adam Morton and Graham Readfearn
• Giles Parkinson   again
• Simon Holmes a' Court

I am wondering whether this is serious policy. This maybe cynical but I think a reason would be found why this could not go ahead. It would not be a reliance on gas ( the most costly after nuclear) before any nuclear stations came on board nor would it be units breaking even more regularly than they do now because all coal fired power statins are well past their use by date. It would be a reason that is blamed on the present government.

Around the Traps 13/12/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Barton on rates-of-youth-radicalisation-are-climbing-in-australia-and-abroad-heres-what-to-look-out-for
• Ross Gittins on the-australian-economy-is-behaving-strangely
• Kevin Bonham on media-fails-again-over-mrp-reporting
• Nichola Tyler and Troy McEwan on up-to-40-of-bushfires-in-parts-of-australia-are-deliberately-lit-but-were-not-doing-enough-to-prevent-them
• Fleur Johns on australia-out-lunch-disaster-diplomacy
• Greg Barton on the-melbourne-synagogue-fire-is-being-treated-as-a-terror-attack-heres-why-that-matters
• Robin Smit on australians-cars-are-typically-larger-heavier-and-less-efficient-than-in-europe-heres-why
• Brendan Coates and Joey Moloney on how-much-do-you-need-to-retire-its-probably-a-lot-less-than-you-think
• Henry Storey on china-s-ev-manufacturing-australia-s-connected-vehicles-conundrum
• Greg Jericho on politicians-love-talking-about-middle-australia-but-beware-of-this-misleading-metric
• Peter Hurley et al on labor-guarantees-3-days-of-childcare-and-160-new-centres-what-does-this-mean-for-families
• Rob Nicholls on big-tech-firms-like-meta-forced-to-pay-for-news-under-albanese-governments-news-bargaining-incentive-charge
• Rick Sarre and Ben Livings on moira-deemings-defamation-win-shows-nobody-can-play-fast-and-loose-with-language-not-even-politicians
• Annmaree O'Keefe on us-tariffs-are-nothing-new-history-should-be-our-guide

OZ Climate

• queensland-looks-to-gas-and-coal-hedges-bets-on-nuclear-as-new-cost-blowout-emerges-for-pumped-hydro
  
• gencost-falling-costs-of-solar-and-batteries-confirm-integrated-renewables-are-cheapest-option
  
• csiro-patiently-and-methodically-slaps-down-peter-duttons-nuclear-nonsense
  
• south-australia-has-the-most-wind-and-solar-and-no-baseload-so-why-is-it-the-only-state-not-fretting-about-a-vulnerable-grid
  
• nsw-gets-lion-share-as-19-solar-wind-and-hybrid-projects-win-australias-biggest-renewable-tender
  
• plunging-cost-of-big-batteries-latest-gigawatt-scale-project-may-set-new-price-benchmark
  
• epbc-green-tape-is-crippling-renewables-investment-as-timelines-double-report-says
  
• aemo-dials-back-forecasts-for-home-battery-uptake-vpp-participation-as-push-for-rebate-grows
• peter-duttons-nuclear-plan-mad-bad-and-extremely-dangerous
  
• the-coalitions-master-plan-bring-large-scale-wind-solar-and-battery-storage-installations-to-a-halt
  
• Adam Morton on csiro-refutes-coalition-case-nuclear-is-cheaper-than-renewable-energy-due-to-operating-life , never-mind-the-fact-the-coalitions-nuclear-proposal-is-a-fantasy-it-doesnt-even-claim-to-reduce-power-bills
• Adam Morton and Graham Readfearn on building-nuclear-power-plants-australia-cost-csiro-predictions
• Dani Alexander et al on these-3-simple-actions-can-save-you-money-and-help-make-the-most-of-your-rooftop-solar
• Peter Hannan on energy-generators-poke-holes-in-duttons-nuclear-plan-as-questions-over-costings-pile-up
• Johanna Bowyer on oppositions-nuclear-costings-are-unrealistic
• Amandine Denise-Ryan et al on billion-dollars-going-air

Northern America

• institutional economics on trade-policy-uncertainty-shocks-and-the-second-trump-administration
• Ian Millhiser on biden-trump-pardon-power-supreme-court-enemies
• noahopinion on democrats-need-to-loudly-reject-progressive-extremism , insurance-companies-arent-the-main-villian-of-the-US-health-industry
• newdealdemocrat on monthly-rebound-masks-deeper-declining-trends , the-case-for-accelerating-inflation-is-weak
• Abdallah Fayyad on public-housing-america-policy-failure-poverty , democrats-republicans-economic-performance-gdp-growth , hunter-biden-pardon-power-reform
• Joel Eissenberg on the-death-of-free-trade
• Charles Gaba on cbo-not-extending-ira-subsidies
• Keren Landman on maha-rfk-make-america-healthy-again-slippery
• Mark Stern on us-supreme-court-clarence-thomas-samuel-alito-guns-second-amendment
• Kevin Drum on the-elon-musk-slop-machine-is-in-overdrive
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-02
• Ellen Ioannes on trump-pardon-january-6-insurrection
• Beverly Gage on the-lede/kash-patel-vs-j-edgar-hoover
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-cabinet-christopher-wray-resignation-cost
• Kevin Drum on heres-the-simple-truth-about-the-fbi

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on how-is-the-russian-war-economy-doing
• Mainly Macro on the-politics-of-stupid
• Joel Eissenberg on russia-is-not-a-global-power
• Bill Haskell on putins-empire-imploding
• stumbling and mumbling on repairing-the-public-sphere
• Basil Germond on how-the-loss-of-its-mediterranean-naval-base-in-syria-would-weaken-russia-as-a-global-power

Asia

• Saqlain Risve on agartala-attack-strains-india-bangladesh-ties
• Ali Mamouri on bashar-al-assads-regime-has-fallen-in-syria-how-will-this-impact-an-already-fractured-region
• Aymann Ismail on israel-news-palestine-amnesty-international-report
• Marika Somoski on why-bashar-al-assads-security-state-collapsed-so-dramatically-in-syria
• Mehmet Ozalp on why-bashar-al-assads-security-state-collapsed-so-dramatically-in-syria
• Khang Vu on explaining-north-korea-s-silence-amid-south-korea-s-political-turmoil
• Joshua Keating on syria-bashar-assad-damascus-civil-war-refugee
• Sara Harmouch on abu-mohammed-al-golani-may-become-the-face-of-post-assad-syria-but-who-is-he-and-why-does-he-have-10m-us-bounty-on-his-head
• Selwyn Parker on peru-s-new-megaport-reveals-refined-belt-road
• Wendy Earlman on syrians-in-a-triumph-of-hope-turn-the-page-on-the-horrors-of-assad
• Kieran Thompson on trouble-australia-s-best-friends-asia
• Michiyo Miyamato and Sam Reynolds on clean-energy-transition-economic-imperative-japans-new-government

Wonk

• Ronald Dworkin on the-algorithm-and-the-hippocratic-oath Thanks Nick
• Milad Haghani on why-is-soccer-fandom-so-linked-to-violence
• Jiayue-Clara Jiang and Sonia Shah on the-genetic-risk-of-depression-is-a-stronger-predictor-of-heart-problems-in-women-than-men-new-research
• the conversable economist on some-patterns-of-long-run-asset-returns , argentinas-economic-challenge-in-context
• Tyler Cowen on science-and-religious-dogmatism
• Tom Worlik on global-economy-won-t-feel-much-pain-from-trump-agenda-in-2025
• Mathew Ricketson and Andrew Dodd on rupert-murdoch-loses-his-legal-battle-leaving-future-of-media-empire-in-the-balance
• noahopinion on how-paul-krugman-changed-the-public-face-of-economics
• David Heslop and Joel Keep on ignoring-real-biowarfare-threat

General

• Tim Harford on the-games-ill-be-playing-this-christmas
• Ranjodh Singh on are-tobacco-and-cannabis-economic-substitutes-or-complements-new-research-suggests-it-changes-with-age

Climate

• tamino on too-hot , let-it-snow
• real climate on nature-2023-part-ii
• Andrew Lenton and Kerryn Brent on plans-to-stabilise-earths-climate-rely-on-emerging-carbon-removal-technology-we-need-to-get-moving
• Alex Cruz on opportunity-wasted-advance-global-plastic-treaty
• renew economy on 2024-will-be-worlds-hottest-year-on-record-and-the-first-above-1-5c-target
• Peter Sinclair on 2024-arctic-report-card-is-here
• skeptical science on renewables-rise-world-turning-point
• Patricia Schouker on new-energy-shock-complacency-oil-markets-could-ignite-global-crisis
• Moyhu on november-global-surface-templs-same-as-otober
• Ian Sample on unprecedented-risk-to-life-on-earth-scientists-call-for-halt-on-mirror-life-microbe-research

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• jpe
  
• i-work-in-a-biology-lab-my-pi-proposed-a-statistical-test-that-i-think-is-nonsense
  
• close-reading-archive
  
• bias-remaining-after-adjusting-for-pre-treatment-variables-also-the-challenges-of-learning-through-experimentation
  
• answering two questions
• harvard-lexicon-kerfuffle-is-what-you-call-it-when-you-completely-botched-your-data-but-you-dont-want-to-change-your-conclusions
  
• how-a-simple-math-error-sparked-a-panic-about-black-plastic-kitchen-utensils
  
• Freakometrics on post calibration techniques , insurance analytics , data augmentation with variational autencoderfor imbalalnced dataset
• Hassan Vally on if-correlation-doesnt-imply-causation-how-do-scientists-figure-out-why-things-happen

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Laura Miller on best-books-2024-nonfiction-novels

vox wonk

• government-reform-and-innovation-performance-china
  
• bitcoin-valuation-transactional-demand-versus-speculative-bubble
  
• miracle-or-myth-assessing-macroeconomic-productivity-gains-artificial-intelligence
  
• hidden-dragon-chinas-spillovers-financial-markets-emerging-economies
  
• central-bank-business-surveys-version-20
  
• carbon-tax-reform-fair-efficient-and-budget-neutral
  
• increasing-cost-buying-american
  
• estimating-laffer-tax-rate-capital-income-cross-base-responses-matter
  
• unlocking-green-fdi-emerging-market-and-developing-economies
  

Noah on Kruggers

 Noah Smith talks about Kruggers as he (Kruggers) writes his last column for the NY Times. I did not even know about this!

Kruggers was possibly the most readable economist since the late Joan Robinson. When he wrote a blog it was essential reading. Apparently he is going to substack!

Whoopsy

I should add two things

1. Kruggers has not been wrong very often. I remember David Glasner getting the better of him on the gold standard but David is possibly the only person who understood the gold standard.I think it was Brad De Long who said something like if you think Kruggers is wrong then have a log think about it and then have another because it is likely you are wrong.
2. I do remember Tyler Cowen interviewing Kruggers ostensibly about a book he had written. He actually did not say a word about his book but on the origins of the GFC alah the USA. Greg Mankiw was so impressed he linked the whole thing!

the RBA what the?

 This will be short .

It was good that the RBA finally realsies the economy is slowing however when the governor says aggregate demand is too high I ask what planet is she on.

GDP is growing less than 1% at an annual rate!

Inflation is a lagging indicator. Everything you examine says it continues to slow quite a bit. Official; stats, business asurveys all say the same thing, I get the RBA is wary of cutting too early as they let inflation rise way too much but please do not spout such obvious nonsense.

CSIRO shows nuclear power the most costly energy source again

 The CSIRO and AEMO have regijjed their figures on energy since their last report.

It made little difference. See HERE and HERE.

Renewables are far cheaper and likely to fall further as times goes by!

You do not need baseload power to have a reliable energy system. Guess who has no base load power in Australia but guess whose power is the most reliable! Yep it is SA

finally let us deal with the dutton lie. He alleged Bowen three the CSIRO at the Coalition's power plan and criticised the plan.

It said nothing about the plan. The report has only been about the various energy source and how they compare. It has been so since it was set up by the previous LNP government.

When the private sector owns all the energy sources they are not interested in base load power only dispatchable power. They do not want vast over supply of power. The other important thing is base load power is incompatible with power for solar panels on rooves.

Biden should NOT offer pre-emptive pardons

Apparently Biden is considering making pre-emptive pardons for those people Trump is targeting.

This would be the wrong thing to do. 

Firstly and most importantly it might not work.

Secondly and just as importantly they have done nothing wrong or committed a crime 

As I have written previously you need evidence to indict a person let alone prosecute them in a court. There is none.

The major point of investigating people by Trump is to get those investigated to spend a s--tload of money on lawyers.The lack of evidence does not money because they already know a crime was not committed.

This being the case what should be done to prevent this expenditure.

A defence fund should be set up to help anyone who has been targeted by Trump. People such a Bloomberg and others could donate money in such a cause. There are also a number of major law firms who would help as well.

This would reduce the incentive of Trump to target people. Add in the opportunity cost of the FBI and Justice department using their resources on doing revenge work instead of their normal work then the  political will would surely dissipate quickly.

Around the Traps 6/12/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Hawkins and Selvyn Cornish on the-reserve-bank-will-now-have-a-separate-board-just-to-set-interest-rates-heres-why-thats-significant
• Peter Greste on the-government-agrees-australias-secrecy-laws-need-to-change-now-comes-the-hard-part-taking-action
• Ross Gittins on how-albanese-is-tighten-up-on-tax-dodging-multinational-companies
• Mark the Ballot on tpp-pendulum-for-2025-federal-election
• croaking cassandra on the-pm-and-economic-performance
• Carolyn Heward on the-governments-response-to-the-royal-commission-into-veteran-suicide-gets-a-lot-right-but-makes-a-couple-of-missteps
• Peter Whiteford on the-social-engineering-of-shame-rick-mortons-mean-streak-exposes-the-populism-behind-the-unlawful-robodebt-scheme
• croaking cassandra on where-were-the-central-agencies , more-outright-dishonesty-from-orr , orr-on-qa-part-ii
• Greg Jericho on australia-gdp-figures-economy-september-quarter-abs
• Stephen Bartos on australians-still-feeling-pain-in-the-hip-pocket-but-there-are-positive-signs-of-growth-ahead
• Tom Barnes on the-dispute-causing-empty-shelves-at-woolies-is-a-test-case-for-companies-using-ai-and-automation-on-workers
• Jeff Sparrow on friday-essay-a-future-of-dust-jeff-sparrow-on-gaza-and-why-in-evil-times-writers-have-a-responsibility-to-take-sides
• Di Johnson on the-government-wants-to-create-a-new-class-of-financial-adviser-for-super-fund-members-heres-why-and-how-it-might-work

OZ Climate

• Chiajiao Sun and Craig Steinberg on cool-water-from-the-deep-could-protect-pockets-of-the-great-barrier-reef-into-the-2080s
• Milton Speer and Lance Leslie on unprecedented-climate-extremes-are-everywhere-our-baselines-for-whats-normal-will-need-to-change
• James Pittock on a-13-billion-30-year-flop-landmark-study-reveals-stark-failure-to-halt-murray-darling-river-decline
• Adam Morton on how-can-news-corp-call-its-gas-splash-exclusive-and-special-report-when-its-paid-for-by-industry
• Gabrielle Kuiper on how-make-solar-backstop-work-consumers
• Peter Hannan on smoke-detector-risk-power-shutdowns-blackouts-solar-power-grid
• csiro-hails-successful-road-test-of-lower-cost-green-hydrogen-technology-at-steel-plant
  
• wind-solar-and-rooftop-pv-set-output-records-and-send-coal-and-gas-plunging-to-new-lows
  
• big-battery-summer-aemo-says-new-storage-capacity-to-play-key-role-in-keeping-lights-on
  
• gillard-chaired-hmc-snaps-up-neoens-wind-solar-and-storage-assets-in-victoria-in-billion-dollar-deal
  
• baseload-power-generators-not-needed-to-guarantee-supply-say-science-and-engineering-academies
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on scott-bessents-economic-lollapalooza
• changing the channel on the-way-we-live-in-the-united-states-is-not-normal Thanks Nick
• David Appell on us-coal-production-dropping-again
• Basil Smikle on trump-administration-nonprofit-groups-tax-exempt
• Eric Levitz on hunter-biden-pardon-joe-biden-democrats-response
• Dylan Mathews on donald-trump-congress-impoundment-budget-supreme-court
• Mark Stern on hunter-biden-pardon-injustice-crime-joe-trump
• Katie Phang on hunter-biden-pardon-cases-trump
• noahopinion on paycheck-to-paycheck-and-five-other-popular-myths
• good politics bad politics on parties-presidential-power-and-potential-US-collapse
• Drezners world on the-first-trump-20-coercion-cycle
• Zack Beauchamp on kash-patel-trump-fbi-steve-bannon-podcast
• David Frum on appeasement-new-age-trump
• Jeet Heer on trump-gravano-government-gangsters
• Stephen Moran on unilateral-trading-system-us-trade-policy-trump-again
• the conversable economist on can-president-trump-just-impose-tariffs-on-day-one

Europe

• Joel Eissenberg on the-ruble-is-collapsing
• Grant Wyeth on tunnels-trains-megaprojects-reshaping-europe-s-economy
• Menzie Chinn on ruble-devaluation-giveth-and-devaluation-taketh-away , frances-sovereign-debt-situation-some-graphs , guest-contribution-business-cycle-and-economic-policy-uncertainty-in-france
• Mainly Macro on investment-in-politics-like-economics-involves-risk-and-present-sacrifice
• Ellen Ioannes on georgia-protests-eu-georgian-dream-russia
• Joshua Hammer on making-germany-hate-again-look-away-jacob-kushner
• Romain Faithi on frances-government-has-fallen-and-political-chaos-has-returned-here-are-3-scenarios-for-what-could-happen-next

Asia

• Yucong Wang and clive Schofield on drawing-lines-in-the-south-china-sea-what-beijings-new-claims-over-a-disputed-coral-reef-mean
• John Strawson on what-the-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-means-for-the-region-expert-qanda
• Mehmet Ozalp on with-the-world-distracted-by-conflicts-elsewhere-the-syrian-civil-war-flares-up-again
• Sara Harmouch on what-is-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-and-how-did-the-islamist-group-evolve-into-a-key-player-in-syrias-civil-war
• Nikola Mikovic on russia-loser-fall-syria-s-aleppo
• Alexander Hynd on south-korea-had-martial-law-for-6-hours-why-did-this-happen-and-what-can-we-expect-now
• Chris Khatouki on understanding-south-korean-crisis-its-global-implications
• Robert Kelley on south-korea-s-president-must-resign
• Charles Glass on lebanons-year-of-living-ambiguously

Wonk

• Francis Lee and Stephen Macedo on restoring-trust-in-public-health Thanks Nick
• Lipton Mathews on were-all-slave-societies-brutal Thanks Nick
• Felix Martin on why-stablecoins-will-entrench-dollars-supremacy Thanks Nick
• Robert Whitol on top-jobs-must-go-best-candidates-international-financial-institutions-should-be-no
• noahopinion on no-you-are-not-on-indigenous-land , manufacturing-is-a-war-now , at-least-five-interesting-things
• John Quiggin on the-ai-boom-in-electricity-demand-a-multiply-recycled-myth
• the conversable economist on designing-an-industry-subsidy-repayable-advances
• Miah Hammond-Errey on bluesky-dreaming-social-media-shifts-signal-tech-power-influence
• Menzie Chinn on chinn-ito-current-account-dynamics-and-saving-investment-nexus-in-a-changing-and-uncertain-world
• Tyler Cowen on the-end-of-oil
• Vassili Kitsios on ai-weather-models-can-now-beat-the-best-traditional-forecasts
• Kourosh Ziabari on hans-blix-arms-control-einstein-who-turned-96-year

General

• Quoc Tron on minerals-in-hot-springs-performed-a-key-chemical-reaction-for-early-life-on-earth-new-study-confirms
• Tanya Latty and James Bickerstaff on australia-boasts-some-of-the-worlds-most-stunning-beetles-look-out-for-these-5-beauties-this-summer

Climate

• Ryan Neelam et al on how-land-fire-raised-temperature-global-climate-negotiations
• open mind on an-eighth-of-an-inch-in-how-long , crossing-the-limit
• Noah Mind and Daevan Mangalmurti on solar-energy-power-projections-climate-change-pakistan
• Stephen Grenville on cop29-climate-finance-fudge
• skeptical science on sabin33-05-is-solar-energy-worse-for-the-climate-than-burning-fossil-fuels
• David Appell on total-warming-japanese-style

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• heres-my-excuse-for-using-obsolete-sub-optimal-or-inadequate-statistical-methods-or-using-a-method-irresponsibly
  
• the-odd-non-spamness-of-some-spam-comments
  
• presidential-campaign-effects-are-small
  
• understanding-p-values-different-interpretations-can-be-thought-of-not-as-different-philosophies-but-as-different-forms-of-averaging
  
• toward-a-unified-theory-of-bad-science-and-bad-scholarship
  
• credit-where-due-to-npr-regarding-science-data-fraud-and-heres-how-they-can-do-even-better
  
• gayface-data-replicability-problems
  
• Tim Harford on known-unknowns-or-how-to-plug-the-gaps-in-public-research
• Robert Waldmann on direction-of-implication-of-high-probability
• Freakometrics on discounting the future

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , best-movies-of-2024
• Jo Case on best-books-of-2024-our-experts-share-their-standout-reads
• Fred Kaplan on best-jazz-albums-2024
• the Atlantic on best-books-2024-percival-everett-alexei-navalny

Vox Wonk

• affordability-long-term-care-systems-times-rapid-population-ageing
  
• italys-long-term-economic-performance-new-gdp-estimates-middle-ages
  
• impact-chinese-exclusion-act-economic-development-western-us
  
• macroeconomic-effects-liquidity-supply-during-financial-crises
  
• beyond-energy-inflationary-effects-metals-price-shocks
  
• two-centuries-systemic-bank-runs
  
• experiencing-natural-disasters-increases-partisan-disagreement-climate-change
  
• decline-revival-policies-unlock-human-capital-and-productivity
  
• navigating-economic-shocks-how-firms-adapted-energy-crisis
  
• trumps-victory-and-equity-markets-effect-political-proximity