US polity is a mess

 Is the USA a failed state?

Sometimes you have a lot of evidence to say it is. It is very hard at present if you are rational and intelligent to vote for a republican. They support insurrections, They do not believe in democracy. they gerrymander electorates to a great extreme and even then expel members on the most spurious of grounds.

They introduce abortion legislation that allows incest, rape and even in some cases puts precedence of unborn children over the mother. They get so het up about transgender ( who are about less the 1% of the population) they blast any of their human rights.\

They also love banning books. you cannot even read about Rosa Park's life in some states.

Then you come to the next presidential election. A contest between Trump and Biden again.

Trump is an inveterate liar, quite easily the most stupid person to be president in out lifetimes and quite corrupt and clearly has authoritarian instincts. Both he and Biden are too old to be President again yet here we are. Yet there is method in biden's madness. Trump is a proven vote loser. The mid terms are usually a referendum on the incumbent in the oval office but Biden managed to make it a referendum on Trump and instead of a shallacking a a decent result.

I cannot see the proliferation of the court cases Trump will face before the next election being a  plus for him with registered independents or democrats voters indeed it could make things worse for him.

I suspect quite a few republicans will hope  Trump succumbs to the cases and a another candidate is offered say Chris Sununu and then easily beats Biden since he is not Trump nor a Trump clone.

The Supreme Court is a mess as well. See HERE, HERE and HERE.

This started with how the last two justices got their job. I said the Supreme court would worry about the respect and authority they have. I was wrong! Thomas should be gone ( sorry but doesn't the man look well Willie Hortonish?), Gorusch should understand what transparency means and roberts should understand his wife's job is untenable.Alito seems to be an intellectual lightweight with a very thin skin.

Add to this Several Trump Judge appointees being an embarrassment together with several state supreme courts being highly partisan and you have little trust or confidence in courts.

In other words the USA is a mess at present.

Around the Traps 28/3/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Pearls and Irritations on john-kerin-an-authentic-hero-of-our-time Thanks Nick
• Brendan Coate Joey Maloney on after-decades-of-neglect-a-housing-accord-could-be-the-gamechanger-australia-needs
• Harry Hobbs on solicitor-general-confirms-voice-model-is-legally-sound-will-not-fetter-or-impede-parliament
• Ann Pender on remembering-barry-humphries-the-man-who-enriched-the-culture-reimagined-the-one-man-show-and-upended-the-cultural-cringe
• renew economy on agl-shuts-down-first-of-last-three-units-at-liddell-australias-oldest-coal-generator, solar-is-a-runaway-global-success-and-australia-is-showing-the-way-forward, aemo-claps-back-against-reckless-claims-made-in-scathing-critique-of-vni-west, dead-duck-curve-rooftop-solar-saturation-can-be-big-win-for-consumers-and-grid, report-calls-for-national-standards-on-building-energy-efficiency-electrification, record-wind-and-solar-deliver-lower-prices-loosen-coal-and-gas-dominance-over-grid, world-is-changing-agl-to-replace-liddell-with-battery-hydrogen-wind-and-solar
• Michael Douglas on lachlan-murdoch-could-well-have-won-his-crikey-lawsuit-so-why-did-he-drop-it
• Matt McDonald on climate-isnt-a-distraction-from-the-militarys-job-of-war-fighting-its-front-and-centre
• John Blaxland on the-much-anticipated-defence-review-is-here-so-what-does-it-say-and-what-does-it-mean-for-australia
• Adam Lockyer on the-most-significant-defence-review-in-40-years-positions-australia-for-complex-threats-in-a-changing-region
• Peter Edwards on robert-o-neill-war-strategy-history
• Sam Roggeveen on defence-strategic-review-strong-chords-one-jarring-note
• Ken Henry on forcing-the-most-disadvantaged-to-live-on-50-a-day-is-cruel-heres-why-jobseeker-should-be-increased
• John Hawkins on inflation-has-fallen-but-one-or-two-more-interest-rate-rises-are-still-likely
• Hugh White on two-big-flaws-penny-wong-s-talk-deterrence-over-taiwan
• croaking cassandra on profits-and-inflation, parker-taxation-and-that-ird-report
• Greg Jericho on inflation-is-coming-back-down-but-australias-renters-are-still-feeling-the-pain
• Peter Hannan on record-levels-of-renewable-energy-help-bring-down-australias-energy-prices-says-aemo
• Anna Boucher on immigration-system-set-for-overhaul-in-wake-of-reviews-damning-findings
• CEDA on Government-Regulation Thanks Peter Whitehead
• Gabrielle Kuiper on household-solar-and-storage-will-dramatically-change-shape-electricity-markets

Northern America

• noahopinion on will-there-be-a-millennial-big-chill, tucker-carlson-and-the-age-of-bad-feelings
• Justin Peters on tucker-carlson-firing-fox-news-bill-oreilly-rupert-murdoch
• Mark Tapscott on reagan-is-what-the-right-needs-today
• Andrew Prokop on tucker-carlson-exit-fox-news-populism
• Nicole Narea on don-lemon-leaving-cnn-fired-misogyny
• Tim O'Brien on crash-course-clarence-thomas-harlan-crow-and-supreme-court-ethics Thanks Brad
• Oliver Willis on biden-aligns-democrats-with-freedom Thanks Brad
• Rodney Tiffen on as-fox-news-settles-its-lawsuit-with-dominion-will-it-make-any-difference-to-how-it-reports
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-clarence-thomas-neil-gorsuch-corruption-harlan-crow-constitution
• Peter Kafka on tucker-carlson-fired-theory-fox-news
• Jeet Heer on democrats-gop-abortion-referendums
• Jared Mondschein on yes-joe-biden-is-old-and-has-low-approval-ratings-but-this-is-why-hes-still-confident-of-re-election
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on chief-justice-accountability-thomas-gorsuch-royalty
• David Frum on gop-republicans-2024-election-biden-trump
• Amy Sorkin on whats-going-on-with-samuel-alito
• Kruggers on these are the inflation measures that matter Thanks Brad
• Tobias Burns on consumer-prices-rose-slightly-in-march-as-annual-inflation-plunged Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on inflation-debate-talking-points
• Ben Mathis-Lilley on trump-hugs-jan-6-protester

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on devaluing-excellence
• Timothy Garton Ash on europe-war-russia-postimperial-empire
• Dan Davies on the-lawson-doctrine Thanks Brad
• Stefan Wolff on western-anger-over-chinas-ambiguity-on-ukraine-cannot-hide-growing-divisions-in-eu-over-support-for-kyiv

Asia

• Aarti Betigeri on india-spoils-empire-less-sparkly-side-charles-coronation
• Drezners world on chinese-diplomacy-steps-in-it-yet-again Thanks Brad
• Eva Mackinley on will-us-reassurance-be-enough-halt-south-korea-s-nuclear-ambition
• Andrea Wong on marcos-has-turned-philippines-towards-america-not-without-risks

Wonk

• Unherd on feudal-overlords-still-rule-the-world Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on what-mystic-meg-can-teach-economists-about-forecasting
• Daniel Bessner on francis-fukuyama-liberalism-discontents Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on which-oecd-country-is-highest-social-spender
• noahopinion on four-interesting-econ-stories
• Michelle Jongelis on no-vapes-arent-95-less-harmful-than-cigarettes-heres-how-this-decade-old-myth-took-off
• Nicholas Gruen on understanding-the-present-by-listening-to-the-past-walter-lippmanns-the-public-philosophy
• Tyler Cowen on my-tls-essay-on-long-termism

General

• Alex Tabarrok on war-by-other-means

Climate

• Ralph Sims on the-ipccs-calls-for-emissions-cuts-have-gone-unheeded-for-too-long-should-it-change-the-way-it-reports-on-climate-change
• real climate on a-noaa-star-dataset-is-born
• Peter Sinclair on more-signs-monster-el-nino-coming-driven-by-massive-ocean-heat-gain
• skeptical science on wildfires-toll-on-snowpack
• Fiona Harvey on accelerating-ocean-warming-earth-temperatures-climate-crisis

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• hey-heres-some-ridiculous-evolutionary-psychology-for-you-along-with-some-really-bad-data-analysis
  
• how-large-is-the-underlying-coefficient-an-application-of-the-edlin-factor-to-that-claim-that-cash-aid-to-poor-mothers-increases-brain-activity-in-babies
  
• open-problem-how-to-make-residual-plots-for-multilevel-models-or-for-regularized-bayesian-and-machine-learning-predictions-more-generally
  
• estimated-effects-of-pre-k-over-the-decades-from-cold-war-optimism-to-modern-day-pessimism
  
• llm-alignment-bias-cultural-consensus-theory
  
• straining-on-the-gnat-of-the-prior-distribution-while-swallowing-the-camel-that-is-the-likelihood-econometrics-edition
  
• school-shooters-and-shooter-drills-and-statistics
  
• Freakometrics on quantifying financial openness
• statschat on missing-injuries, having-your-say
• Kaiser Fung on were-the-us-polls-accurate

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Alex Tabarrok on voters-as-mad-scientists-essays-on-political-irrationality

Vox Wonk

• resilient-global-supply-chains-and-implications-public-policy
  
• one-product-two-prices-border-effect-retail-prices
  
• rebuilding-ukraines-healthcare-sector-proposals-next-ten-years
  
• navigating-disinflation-views-400-economists
  
• cost-living-squeeze-distributional-implications-rising-inflation
  
• reorganisation-federal-employment-agency-mattered-german-labour-market-upswing
  
• prospects-uk-potential-output
  
• rebuilding-ukraine-gender-dimension-reconstruction-process
  
• impact-export-controls-international-trade-evidence-japan-korea-trade-dispute
  
• designing-fiscal-policy-time-accelerating-prices-italy-under-mario-draghi
  
• financial-instability-2022-2023-causes-risks-and-responses
  

ABC radio has problems?

The last two radio ratings has been bad for local radio ABC in Sydney. It used be known as 2BL or 702.

Why has this occurred? 

Well they have taken two good presenters from where they were very good and moved them to areas they clearly are not suited to. James Valentine and Sarah McDonald were excellent where they were previously ( just before drive and at nights.) Now they are in time slots where they are just not suited. Valentine was replaced by Joshua Szeps who simply has no personality. ( Can I mention the best segment of Valentine back then was when he had HG Nelson on fridays speaking about the greater Sydney council or something. Very funny and I miss it.

ABC have used Chris Bath in the past and she certainly has the personality to succeed in radio maybe make her the breakfast host?

Clearly whomever is making the decisions at present has no idea.

Social spending in the OECD.

 Simon Wren-Lewis writes a highly interesting column on social spending in the OECD. did you know the US has the second highest spend in the OECD?  take a guess why?

A great read because it makes you think

Anzac Day

 On Anzac day let us remember there were some Aussie soldiers who committed war crimes.

Scott McIntyre who was a great football journalist at SBS was sacked for saying this occurred in Palestine in WW2. He foolishly out this on his official SBS twitter account. We recently had credible accounts of war crimes being committed in Afghanistan.

I remember a next door neighbour sobbing of what he did to the Japanese in WW2 ( because of what they did to Aussies ).

We must ALWAYS reject such morality. you never do evil things because the other side do.

It is a pity no-one talks about that on Anzac day!

Deep Purple

 The most famous riff of all time surely

Around the Traps 21/4/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on understanding-lsap-losses, sources-of-inflation, keeping-track-of-the-lsap-losses, the-oia-the-rb-and-the-mpc
• Ross Gittins on how-party-politicking-let-mining-wreck-our-economy
• renew economy on drastic-climate-action-is-the-best-course-for-economic-growth-new-study-finds, record-5gw-of-new-solar-and-wind-underway-and-big-batteries-are-getting-bigger, big-coal-to-big-solar-nsw-leads-nation-on-new-large-scale-pv-capacity, agl-juggles-closure-times-as-nsw-waves-goodbye-to-australias-oldest-coal-plant, net-zero-study-finds-australia-needs-nearly-three-terawatts-of-wind-and-solar, origin-presses-go-on-eraring-battery-to-help-replace-australias-biggest-coal-plant, record-solar-generation-from-farms-and-rooftops-drives-down-power-prices-on-the-nem
• Paul Kildea on why-cant-we-just-establish-the-voice-to-parliament-through-legislation-a-constitutional-law-expert-explains
• Maria Rublee on aukus-what-do-nuclear-waste
• Greg Jericho on the-stage-three-tax-cuts-are-bad-economic-policy-and-a-dumb-political-strategy-too
• Helen Dickinson on the-ndis-is-set-for-a-reboot-but-we-also-need-to-reform-disability-services-outside-the-scheme
• Ben Phillips on boosting-jobseeker-is-the-most-effective-way-to-tackle-poverty-what-the-treasurers-committee-told-him
• Dennis Altman on a-combination-of-deficiencies-the-disastrous-morrison-government-dissected
• Hussein Dia on australia-finally-has-an-electric-vehicle-strategy-how-does-it-stack-up
• Hugh White on choice-facing-penny-wong
• Rod Sims on green-energy-is-a-bigger-opportunity-for-australia-than-the-resources-boom-lets-not-waste-it
• Gregory McCarthy on a-major-review-has-recommended-more-independence-for-decisions-about-research-funding-in-australia
• William Partlett on the-rise-of-unaccountable-ministerial-advisors-why-victorias-ibac-report-should-concern-all-australians
• Jeffrey McNeill on less-than-illustrious-remembering-the-anzacs-means-also-not-forgetting-some-committed-war-crimes
• Issac Gross on reserve-bank-revolution-how-jim-chalmers-will-recraft-the-rba-for-the-21st-century
• Harry Hobbs on solicitor-general-confirms-voice-model-is-legally-sound-will-not-fetter-or-impede-parliament

Northern America

• lawyers,guns,money on well-make-great-pets Thanks Brad
• Barry Eichengreen on a-bank-murder-mystery Thanks Brad
• Lisa Needham on dominion-fox-news-trial-sanctions-explained Thanks Brad
• Christian Paz on trump-indictment-democrats-2024-election
• Liz Zhou on ralph-yarl-kansas-city-shooting, clarence-thomas-supreme-court-propublica-luxury-trips-harlan-crow
• noahopinion on five-big-trends-that-have-changed-in-the-last-few-years, why-arent-we-taking-every-chinese-refugee-we-can
• TKer on macro-fed-demand-destruction Thanks Brad
• Nicole Narea and Andrew Prokop on fox-dominion-settlement-trial-2020
• Jeet Heer on trump-anti-imperialist, corruption-clarence-thomas-senate-judiciary
• slow boring on bad-incentives-and-the-politics-of-fear Thanks Brad
• bulwark on think-of-trumps-election-as-year-zero Thanks Brad
• Jane Kirtley on why-fox-newss-settlement-with-dominion-voting-systems-is-good-news-for-all-media-outlets
• Li Zhou on ralph-yarl-kansas-city-shooting
• Peter Kafka on fox-news-dominion-lawsuit-settlement-peter-kafka-media-column
• David Graham on fox-news-lost-lawsuit-won-war
• David Cole on an-abortion-drug-tests-the-supreme-court
• John Cassidy on bidens-new-green-jobs-are-boosting-purple-and-red-states
• Nicole Narea on ron-desantis-disney-world-board-reedy-creek-florida
• Mark Stern on richard-glossip-attorney-general-innocent-execution
• Mary Franks on counterman-colorado-supreme-court-threats-stalking

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on when-clever-people-do-stupid-things

Asia

• Jeffrey Robertson on kazakhstan-middle
• Ellen Ioannes on myanmars-brutal-war-civil-strife-tatmadaw
• Zhang Jun on china-lower-growth-focus-on-job-creation-productivity-stability Thanks Brad
• Leena Adel and Been Rich on peace-may-finally-be-returning-to-yemen-but-can-a-fractured-nation-be-put-back-together
• Farkhondeh Akbari and Jacqui True on don-t-reward-taliban-s-gender-apartheid-recognition
• Kabir Taneja on india-still-needs-work-russia-afghanistan

Wonk

• Tim Harford on lockdowns-are-over-wfh-isnt-why
• noahopinion on 2023-is-when-the-empires-strike-back, five-big-trends-that-have-changed-in-the-last-few-years, economic-development-is-doing-ok
• Alex Tabarrok on strong-and-weak-link-problems-and-the-value-of-peer-review
• Eric Liesser on on-public-reason-inflated-concepts
• Mainly Macro on why-fiscal-consolidations-spending-cuts-and-tax-increases don't work
• coppolla comment on a-fractional-reserve-crisis
• Anne Krueger on imf-china-international-debt-restructuring-process-is-broken Thanks Brad
• William Buiter on case-for-cbdc-overwhelming-in-coming-years-with-declining-interest-rates thanks Brad
• the grumpy economist on how-do-interest-rates-lower-inflation

General

• Aaron Robotham and Selleme Belstedt on humans-have-been-predicting-eclipses-for-thousands-of-years-but-its-harder-than-you-might-think
• Rossana Rugeri on new-look-at-einstein-rings-around-distant-galaxies-just-got-us-closer-to-solving-the-dark-matter-debate

Climate

• Edward Doddbridge on antarcticas-heart-of-ice-has-skipped-a-beat-time-to-take-our-medicine
• and Then Theres Physics on tropospheric-temperature-trends
• Peter Sinclair on giant-berg-drifts-away-from-doomsday-glacier
• sceptical science on drastic-action-is-best-for-economy
• Moyhu on hourly-modelling-of-conversion-of-usa48-to-wind/solar
• construction physics on how-did-solar-power-get-cheap-part Thanks Brad
• the science of doom on natural-variability-attribution-and-climate-models-1

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• 4-different-meanings-of-p-value-and-how-my-thinking-has-changed
  
• climate-change-makes-the-air-hotter-thus-less-dense-leading-to-more-home-runs
  
• political-science-special-issue-on-forecasting-the-2024-us-elections
  
• how-much-confidence-should-be-placed-in-market-based-predictions
  
• ghostwriting-by-federal-judges-a-way-to-violate-disclosure-rules-its-the-opposite-of-plagiarism
  
• why-it-doesnt-make-sense-to-say-x-people-are-dying-every-year-from-y-use-life-years-instead
  
• while-we-absolutely-acknowledge-that-were-moving-to-a-more-accurate-and-appropriate-way-to-count-deaths-it-doesnt-change-our-understanding-it-does-not-alter-our-understand
  
• a-westlaw-for-science
  
• no-the-polls-did-not-predict-a-republican-tsunami-in-2022
  
• how-animals-make-decisions
  
• statschat on looking-for-chatgpt
• freakometrics on alternative fixed effects panel model 

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• morality-in-the-cloisters
  
• who-owns-kent
  
• Institutional Economics on book-club-scott-sumners-alternative-dd

Vox Wonk

• macroprudential-policies-are-effective-limited-side-effects-open-questions-remain
  
• how-early-childcare-can-boost-labour-market-success-lower-educated-mothers
  
• wash-trading-centralised-crypto-exchanges-need-transparency-and-accountability
  
• bank-transparency-regulation-and-stress-tests-what-works-and-what-does-not
  
• how-firms-adjust-economic-sanctions
  
• using-job-postings-quantify-remote-work
  
• product-market-monopolies-and-labour-market-monopsonies
  
• patterns-economic-growth-over-time-and-across-countries-reconciling-theory-and
  
• forecasting-soccer-matches-betting-odds-tale-two-markets
  
• migration-and-households-risk-diversification
  
• digitalisation-enhances-productivity-growth-only-some-firms
  
• assessing-impact-international-sanctions-russian-oil-exports
  
• resilient-global-supply-chains-and-implications-public-policy
  
• monetary-policy-also-has-short-run-effects
  

the review of the RBA

 Apparently the release of the review of the RBA will be released today.

I see nothing to argue about in the recommendations, well I prefer monthly meetings to 6 weekly meetings.

The only thing the treasurer has to do is appoint a new head of the RBA. for my money Lowe should go. his comments about interest rates and when they might rise was irresponsible.  I would appoint the current statistician David Gruen in his place/ He has worked in both Treasury and the RBA and as you might expect with a person with  both a Phd in physics and economics a formidable intellect. I was lucky yo have lunch with Glenn Stevens and him a long time ago.

Whom ever gets the gig could do a lot worse than examine Bernie Fraser's reign. He encouraged his young brilliant ones under him to use the intellectual gifts to the greatest extent. He introduced the inflation target after everyone examined what is should be and the pluses and minuses. Indeed Fraser could well go down as the best public servant we have seen. Treasury thrived under him as well.

Let us hope Jim Chalmers makes some wise decisions.

Fox folds

 Fox has settled its lawsuit with Dominion. See HERE and HERE

It is a much diminished organisation. most of their media 'stars' are now seen as complete hypocrites.

My guess is fox as a whole will simply move on and completely ignore the lawsuit.

Clarence Thomas is a real piece of work

 Clarence Thomas is a judge on the US supreme court. He was appointed by George Bush senior. for most of his time he rarely said anything. This is not the case now with a 6-3 super majority.

HERE is what has occurred of late. Just before we start on this we should remember Thomas did not recuse himself from a hearing on 'Trump' matters when he clearly knew his wife , who is a bit of a nutcase, would have her fingerp[ints all over the case and she did.  his wife claimed they never talked work at all becoming the only couple in the world to do so! MORE stuff

I find it remarkable a supreme court justice would be so blind to obvious ethical concerns.

If the supreme court wants to understand why it is held in such a low esteem it needs to look no further than here.

Perhaps I should add Thomas  looks an evil  man but his judgements where he says men on death row should not have any support simply because their lawyers were poor are evil.

He should be  impeached

Dutton scores another own goal

 After  the Aston by-election disaster Peter Dutton probably thought a visit to Alice Springs was a winner. He could go on to his law and order persona and be on a winner.

Wrong. His mouth ran away  from him. He alleged children were going back to sexxual abusers at night. One local reporter asked him what data he was basing this on. Dutton hurled abuse at him because he had no data to back his argument with. Several ALP politicians asked him to tell the local police about these accusations as you must.

In essence a instant vote winner turned into a vote loser.

At his side was Jacinta Price. I have seen her interviewed by Sarah Ferguson and David Speers and on the radio by Hamish McDonald and she is very unimpressive. None were aggressive nd all let her say what she wanted to however all followed up and Price was flummoxed.

Not a great week for the Opposition.

Around the Traps 14/4/23

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on in-politics-and-economy-christianity-is-increasingly-suspect, the-taxmans-sneaky-trick-that-will-quietly-pick-our-pocket
• renew economy on australias-hydrogen-superpower-dream-could-be-massive-waste-of-money-says-griffith, the-safeguard-mechanism-deal-how-hard-are-the-caps-and-do-they-matter, fossil-gas-will-lose-its-hold-on-spot-prices-with-more-battery-hydro-wind-and-solar, fossil-gas-will-lose-its-hold-on-spot-prices-with-more-battery-hydro-wind-and-solar, csiro-report-veers-off-course-storage-is-a-solved-problem, brookfield-pushes-back-against-nsw-move-to-prop-up-biggest-coal-generator, rooftop-solar-keeps-bouncing-back-as-households-pile-on-the-panels, gas-cant-compete-with-wind-solar-and-storage-even-in-worlds-biggest-market, bad-faith-gas-lobbys-desperate-attacks-on-electrification-dont-stack-up
• Dominic Zaal on batteries-wont-cut-it-we-need-solar-thermal-technology-to-get-us-through-the-night
• Stephen Duckett and Fiona McDonald on what-if-medicare-was-restricted-to-gps-who-bulk-billed-this-kind-of-reform-is-possible
• Erin Leif on australian-classrooms-are-among-the-least-favourable-for-discipline-in-the-oecd-heres-how-to-improve-student-behaviour
• Catherine Bennett on another-covid-winter-is-coming-is-this-the-calm-before-another-peak
• Kate Griffiths on treasurer-chalmers-has-a-70-billion-a-year-budget-hole-weve-found-13-ways-to-fill-it
• Melissa Tyler on anthony-albanese-should-attend-the-nato-summit-if-he-can-heres-why
• Joel Gilmore and Tim Nelson on farewell-liddell-what-to-expect-when-australias-oldest-coal-plant-closes
• Phillip Ivanov on australia-s-delicate-dance-united-states-china
• Patrick Trijlavcanin on no-albo-nato-no-worries
• Croaking cassandra on reading-the-regional-gdp-data

Northern America

• no more mister nice blog on disorganized-crime Thanks Brad
• Ellen Ioannes on north-carolina-tricia-cotham-republican-party-switch
• noahopinion on will-elon-musk-kill-substack, nobody-knows-how-many-jobs-will-be-automated, yes-its-ok-to-be-mad-about-crime-in-San Francisco
• Nicole Narea on louisiana-north-carolina-cotham-thompson-lacombe
• Richard Hasen and dahlia Lithwick on republican-effort-to-suppress-the-vote
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-04%
• Garry Wills on what-friends-are-for-clarence-thomas-harlan-crow
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-abortion-mifepristone-fifth-circuit-alliance-hippocratic-medicine-fda
• newdeal democrat on consumer-inflation-is-about-3-0-yoy-the-economy-has-experienced-deflation-since-last-june

Europe

• lawyers guns money on does-ukraine-exist-views-differ Thanks Brad
• Tim Harford on most-budget-day-tweaks-make-the-tax-system-worse-these-wouldnt
• Mainly Macro on the-poor-judgements-of-nigel-lawson
• Ian Hill on russia-foreign-policy-search-new-friends
• noahopinion on europe-is-not-ready-to-be-a-third-superpower

Asia

• Tyler Cowen on some-doubts-about-chinese-industrial-policy
• Kaishik Basu on singapore-success-result-of-multiculturalism-not-authoritarianism thanks Brad 
• Geneviève Donellon-May on multilateral-cooperation-can-improve-south-asia-s-water-woes
• Ayal Mayoz on as-tensions-escalate-in-the-middle-east-can-all-out-war-be-averted
• Amin Naeni on with-iran-purportedly-capable-of-making-a-nuclear-bomb-in-a-matter-of-months-what-will-its-leaders-do-next
• Ved Shinde on what-does-china-want-ukraine
• George Varughese and Daniel Madhani on urgent-humanitarian-need-get-diplomats-back-afghanistan

Wonk

• Darren Acemoglu on shift-from-market-fundamentalism-to-economy-for-social-benefit Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on how-well-does-a-naive-expectations-augmented-phillips-curve-with-cost-push-shocks-fit-pce-inflation-with, more-on-cost-push-shocks-and-inflation-expectations-in-a-phillips-curve-context, guest-contribution-in-god-we-trust-all-the-others-must-bring-good-collateral
• Alex Tabarrok on anarchy-in-south-africa
• economic forces on does-price-discrimination-convey-or-distort-information thanks Brad

General

• Gavin Rowell on a-next-generation-gamma-ray-observatory-is-underway-to-probe-the-extreme-universe
• Andreas Zametzer and Chris Kirkland on how-the-worlds-oldest-known-meteorite-impact-structure-changed-the-chemistry-of-earths-crust

Climate

• Craig Stevens on the-untapped-power-of-ocean-winds-why-new-zealand-is-looking-offshore-for-future-renewable-energy
• the conversable economist on carbon-taxes-or-green-energy-subsidies
• Moyhu on giss-march-global-temperature-up-by-023

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• givewells-change-our-mind-contest-cost-effectiveness-and-water-quality-interventions
  
• two-great-tastes-etc
  
• how-to-digest-research-claims-1-vitamin-d-and-covid-2-fish-oil-and-cancer
  
• assault-deaths-in-the-oecd-1960-2020-these-graphs-are-good-and-heres-how-we-can-make-them-better
  
• gaussian-process-as-a-default-interpolation-model-is-this-kind-of-anti-bayesian
  
• statretro
  
• which-came-first-science-or-engineering
  
• the-percentogram-a-histogram-binned-by-percentages-of-the-cumulative-distribution-rather-than-using-fixed-bin-widths
  
• Kaiser Fung on long-live-anonymity
• statschat on briefly

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• weekend reads
• rawls-reloaded
  
• institutional economics on book-club-scott-sumners-alternative 
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading-and-not-reading-due-to-travel

vox wonk

• european-commissions-expenditure-benchmark
  
• online-media-and-adolescent-mental-health-crisis
  
• effect-climate-change-italian-economy-part-1-damages
  
• industry-agglomeration-and-location-choice-productive-firms-role-product-markets
  
• effect-climate-change-italian-economy-part-2-policy
  
• how-russias-long-history-conflict-and-other-shocks-affects-its-economic-growth
  
• local-concentration-and-structural-transformation
  
• insights-inaugural-bank-england-watchers-conference
  
• high-public-debt-levels-raise-household-inflation-expectations-central-banks-arent
  
• monetary-policy-cyclicality-emerging-economies
  
• tracking-eu-decoupling-russia
  
• macroprudential-policies-are-effective-limited-side-effects-open-questions-remain
  

Fiscal policy and public debt

 the esteemed Grattan Institute have  written about THIS.

They offer both suggestions for cutting spending and raising more in tax.

As Ken Henry has stated if the RBA is raising rates now the budget should be in surplus. This is the Previous government's fault. What can the present government do? It can steadily reduce the substantial structural deficit each budget. Why do I say steadily? Essentially to avoids a recession. 

If you change the structural deficit too quickly you guarantee a recession given where monetary policy is.

the Leeser resignation

 This was rather curious. Dutton appointed him the shadow minister for indigenous affairs and knew he supported the voice.

Why di he not make it a conscious vote. Indeed by saying the Opposition will campaign against the voice he will be in a very weak state IF the voice gets up.

It is merely another example of Dutton's poor political judgement.

Chinese Industrial Policy

 Tyler  Cowen gives us another view on chinese industrial policy.

I am having deja vu about japanese industrial policy from the 1980s  when Japan was gong to overtake the USA

Carbon taxes or subsidies

 The conversable economist examines this topic. Enjoy

Around the Traps 7/4/23 Good Friday Edition

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Harry Hobbs et al on what-actually-is-a-treaty-what-could-it-mean-for-indigenous-people
• Joey Moloney and Brendan Coates on super-has-become-a-taxpayer-funded-inheritance-scheme-for-the-rich-heres-how-to-fix-it-and-save-billions
• Ross Gittins on climate-choice-cling-to-past-glories-or-strive-for-prosperous-future, why-im-happy-to-bang-drum-for-higher-wages
• renew economy on australia-finally-has-a-climate-policy-after-lost-decade-but-not-everyone-is-making-progress, australia-can-and-should-eradicate-its-gas-supply-gap-but-not-with-more-gas, petrol-is-the-new-coal-as-roadtrips-and-bali-holidays-push-up-emissions, some-of-australias-biggest-solar-and-wind-farms-hit-badly-by-new-grid-assessment, solar-panels-can-take-the-heat-a-lot-better-when-paired-with-crops, government-has-a-duty-to-be-transparent-about-climate-security-risks-even-if-shocking, load-shifting-and-energy-spills-secrets-to-smarter-grid-dominated-by-wind-and-solar, nsw-hosts-best-performing-wind-farms-as-market-keeps-eye-on-liddell-coal-closure
• Tessa Leach and Tyra Horngren on australias-main-iron-ore-exports-may-not-work-with-green-steelmaking-heres-what-we-must-do-to-prepare
• Patricia Ranald on how-clive-palmer-is-suing-australia-for-300-billion-with-the-help-of-an-obscure-legal-clause-and-christian-porter
• croaking cassandra on mpc-members, two-countries, the-statutory-provisions-governing-mpc-members, how-much-attention-was-paid-to-this
• David Tuffley on why-was-tiktok-banned-on-government-devices-an-expert-on-why-the-security-concerns-make-sense
• Duncan McDonnell and Bartholomew Stanford on we-havent-got-anybody-new-research-reveals-how-major-parties-are-dying-in-remote-australia
• Peter Martin on sure-the-rba-froze-interest-rates-this-time-but-theres-plenty-of-pain-to-come
• Peter McDonald on whats-behind-the-recent-surge-in-australias-net-migration-and-will-it-last
• Greg Jericho on the-rbas-rate-pause-is-prudent-theres-still-a-lot-of-rises-yet-to-hit-the-economy
• Anne Twomey on how-does-the-liberal-partys-voice-policy-stack-up-against-the-proposed-referendum
• Christopher Downie and Maxfield Peterson on australia-can-no-longer-justify-fossil-fuel-funding
• Kevin Bonham on voice-referendum-polling-yes-is-well-ahead-but-it-is-getting-closer

Northern America

• Shannon O'Brien on manhattan-grand-jury-votes-to-indict-donald-trump-showing-he-like-all-other-presidents-is-not-an-imperial-king
• Stefanie Lindquist on trump-indictment-wont-keep-him-from-presidential-race-but-will-make-his-reelection-bid-much-harder
• the conversable economist on taking-long-term-stock-returns-seriously, higher-education-and-the-ediface-complex
• Mathew Winkler on critics-of-the-federal-reserve-are-missing-some-key-context Thanks Brad
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-indictment-soros-backed-anti-semitism-george, tennessee-expulsions-state-democracy-measure
• Dean Baker on svb-was-donald-trumps-bailout Thanks Brad
• David Rovella on us-inflation-may-be-slowing-again-new-data-show Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on bank-weakness-is-how-our-economy-cools
• Tyler Cowen on a-new-paper-on-infrastructure-costs
• the soapbox on cable-news-trump-indictment-disastrous thanks Brad
• unpopular front on the-great-anti-climax thanks Brad
• Jeet Heer on two-cheers-for-arresting-trump
• Nicole Narea on wisconsin-supreme-court-election-abortion-redistricting-protasiewicz
• Shirin Ghaffary on donald-trump-arrest-twitter-arraignment-social-media
• Jeffrey Belin on what-trumps-business-fraud-charges-mean-a-former-prosecutor-explains-the-34-felony-counts-and-obstacles-ahead-for-manhattans-da
• Li Zhou on clarence-thomas-supreme-court-propublica-luxury-trips-harlan-crow
• Dathlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on clarence-thomas-broke-the-law-harlan-crow
• Kaleigh Rodgers on what-can-house-republicans-actually-do-to-the-manhattan-da
• Alexander Sammon on tennessee-democrats-expelled-republican-governance

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on why-not-raise-cgt
• Darious Sporzynski on international-criminal-court-has-cited-russias-deportation-of-ukrainian-children-a-war-crime-on-russias-long-history-of-weaponising-deportation
• Mathew Sussex on russias-shadow-war-vulkan-files-leak-show-how-putins-regime-weaponises-cyberspace
• Oleg Ignatov on russia-s-shifting-far-right-war-party
• Mainly Macro on what-france-can-teach-uk-about-pensions
• Simon Smith on finland-joins-nato-in-a-major-blow-to-putin-which-doubles-the-length-of-the-alliances-border-with-russia
• Anna Nemtsova on wall-street-journal-reporter-arrest-evan-gershkovich
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-inflation-in-the-euro-area-a-view-from-the-price-level

Asia

• Gabriela Bernal on north-korea-keeps-building-more-powerful-weapons-no-end-sight
• Adarsh Badri on help-end-war-ukraine-quad-should-back-india-engage-russia
• Daniel Depetris on china-its-own-worst-enemy
• renew economy on china-on-track-to-triple-its-terawatt-scale-wind-and-solar-target
• the conversable economist on industrial-policy-lessons-from-south-korea

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on why-is-the-dollar-still-king, guest-contribution-gauging-recessions-with-the-jobs-workers-gap-april-2023
• Ved Shine on great-power-rivalry-poisoning-multilateralism
• Arzon Tarapore on what-quad-could-learn-aukus
• Chris Lloyd on the-bigotry-we-are-blind-to
• Tyler Cowen on the-employment-effects-of-generous-and-unconditional-cash-support, econ-journal-watch-new-issue
• coppolla comment on what-really-happened-to-signature-bank
• Sebastian Horn et al on china-as-an-international-lender-of-last-resort
• Dave Karp on how-much-longer-can-twitter-last-really Thanks Brad
• Henry Farrell on no-bullshit-democracy
• Carl Rhodes on no-blackrock-is-not-leading-a-marxist-assault-on-capitalism
• Aackash Chradran et al on what-rohingya-icc-ukraine-limits-international-justice
• Alex Tabarrok on the-arrow-replacement-effect-and-the-dynamics-of-us-inventors
• noahopinion on industrial-policy-doesnt-have-to-succeed-right-away
• Jorge Casatnede and Carlos Ominami on latin-america-threats-to-democracy-authoritarian-populism thanks Brad

General

• Tim Harford on the-enshittification-of-apps-is-real-but-is-it-bad
• noahopinion on some-ideas-for-science-fiction-in-2020s
• Sophie Fraser on guide-to-the-classics-steeped-in-the-arboreal-sublime-thomas-hardys-the-woodlanders-carries-a-startling-urgency

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on how-we-frame-extreme-weather-events
• Desmog on lost-decade-how-shell-downplayed-early-warnings-over-climate-change
• moyhu on march-global-surface-templs-up-0229-from-february
• Damien Carrington on ice-sheets-collapse-far-faster-than-feared-study-climate-crisis
• Real Climate on the-summary-for-policymakers-of-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-sixth-assessment-reports-synthesis

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• surgisphere-is-back-2
  
• risk-ratio-odds-ratio-risk-difference-which-causal-measure-is-easier-to-generalize
  
• when-plotting-all-the-data-can-help-avoid-overinterpretation
  
• association-between-low-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol-and-all-cause-mortality
  
• mystery-resolved-how-did-an-article-with-apparently-zero-jewish-content-end-up-in-a-magazine-of-jewish-news-ideas-and-culture
  
• consider-the-analogy-of-learning-statistics-to-learning-a-new-language
  
• nationally-poor-locally-rich-income-and-local-context-in-the-2016-presidential-election
  
• Joel Eisenburg on trusting-statistics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• not-engineering
  
• what-a-spectacle
  
• Institutional Economics on book-club-scott-sumners-alternative
• noahopinion on three-more-books-about-the-technology-wars
• Andrew Gelman on recent book reviews
• Tyler Cowen on a-new-history-of-greek-mathematics

Vox Wonk

• neighbourhood-gangs-crime-spillovers-and-teenage-motherhood
  
• industrial-robots-workers-winners-and-losers
  
• climate-risks-and-global-value-chains-impact-2011-thailand-flood-swedish-firms
  
• role-social-effects-lung-cancer-treatment-and-innovation-adoption
  
• exchange-rate-volatility-and-monetary-policy
  
• ukraine-reconstruction-preventing-pitfalls-infrastructure-investments
  
• fixing-banking-real
  
• asymmetric-federal-reserve-objective
  
• institutional-investors-and-responsible-investing
  
• towards-new-tax-system-ukraine
  
• policing-budget-understanding-impacts-austerity-cuts-crime-police-effectiveness-and
  

Paul Butterfield

 Paul Butterfield was one of the geniuses of rock. the Butterfield blues band was fantastic.

Here he is at the Last Waltz with the Band doing mystery train.  Enjoy

film Review Dark Water

 I watched Dark Water last week with my oldest son. There are similarities to Dope Sick the difference being the former is a movie and the latter is a series.

I highly recommended dope sick and I do so again with this movie. The guilty party in this case is Du Pont.

It is on netflix.  do yourself a favour a watch it. Capitalism has problems some people want to gloss over . This movie examines one of those large problems.

China as a lender of last resort

 Here is a fascinating paper

china-as-an-international-lender-of-last-resort

Here is Brad Parks, one of the authors, talking to Radio National.

As Mr Spock would say fascinating

Politics Oz and USA

 Australia

Well i was badly wrong. The ALP won the Aston by-election and thus for the first time in over 100 years a government has won a seat in a by-election form the opposition ( and just remember there were special circumstances for that.)

The Libs had a good candidate but unlike the ALP candidate who also was a good candidate was never actually able to be herself. Blaming the ALP for inflation was absurd. Everyone knew inflation started when the Liberals were in power although they were not to blame. The voters were treated as idiots and di not like that. The impressive candidate di not sound impressive when she was forced to make these accusations. The Liberals talking points on both energy and a federal ICAC sounds as though they still have not realised what is going on. I might also add they do not sound fair dinkum on the voice either.

Add in an unimpressive leader with no alternatives and you have trouble. Dutton does not show any great intellectual bent nor does he show he has the energy needed as well ( See Keating post 1975).

At present they are only in with a chance if the ALP become a disunited rabble as they di last time and there seems no chance of that.

USA

Trump has been indicted on 33 counts.

A grand  jury indicted him thus a majority of the 22 people obviously thought Trump needed to go to trial. first let us deal with a trump lie perpetrated by many who support him. George Soros has never contributed to the Manhattan's political campaign. He has not even talked or ever communicated with him. It is a typical anti semitic remark of trump.

We do not know what the 33 counts are as yet. We wil lnot know until Wednesday oz time thus it is absurd to say this is political. If it is how was a grand jury convinced. If it was the charges would be easy to fight and talk about. Thus far no has!

This we know is more about dodgy accounting than anything else something the DA has won on over 100 caes this far. It is his bread and butter.

Trump is innocent until and if he is found guilty.