Wednesday 8 February 2023

how many more rate hikes can we expect

 The RBA hiked the official cash rates another 25 basis points and said there are more to come.

Now plenty of people are saying the RBA is going in too hard and we might even have a recession.

Whoa there. Yes it is the RBA's job to talk tough but after the recession we had to have which if we believe the RBA was THEIR fault  ( SuperMac told us so) they are acutely aware of business surveys and their usefulness in gauging how price pressures are going. At present they are saying prices are falling!

We do know we have yet to see the impact of a whole lot of homebuyers having to switch from low fixed rates to higher floating rates. The RBA is more than aware if you cause a 'housing recession. them  onetary policy cannot do much.

Add all that together I see the RBA continuing to talk tough BUT if business surveys continue to show price pressures falling then perhaps we might only have one more rise and even then only 15 points. Perhaps it is more realistic to see another 25 point rise and then a final 15 point rise in April.


We shall wee

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