Fox caught out.

 In the court case of Dominion v Fox news fox news has been caught out blatantly lying to their viewers.

We have evidence that several commentators were broadcasting views they knew to be false in other words they were lying through their teeth. I do not think anyone is surprised by this we all knew this before. what is new is the texts etc showing how brazen they were.

In an irony of ironies they created a lie so well they could not say the truth because they would lose viewers!

I will be interested in how they try to spin their way out of this

Kia comes through

 I have written previously of the Kia we had needed a new engine. Problems occurred only weeks after the last service. It had only been serviced by Kia and had just on 70,000 ks on the odometer.

As it was Kia agreed to replace the engine at no cost. They have done so and after about 9 months we can finally drive the car again.

I can only say well done Kia for accepting responsibility for the problem

Ukraine

 Three thoughtful articles on the war started in Ukraine by Russia.

• democracy-needs-ukraine-to-win
  
• supporting-ukraine-sanctions-has-been-much-less-costly-many-predicted-we-should-do
  
• russia-has-already-lost-next-year-will-decide-if-ukraine-can-win
  

Ronnie Hawkins

 at the Last Waltz. Fantastic.

Around the the Traps 23/2/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Hawkins on the-lowe-road-the-rba-is-treading-a-narrow-path-between-inflation-and-recession
• Ross Gittins on inflation-is-too-tricky-to-be-left-to-the-RBA, central-banking-dont-mention-business-pricing-power, caring-folk-care-about-early-learning
• renew economy on wind-and-solar-take-wholesale-electricity-prices-below-zero-for-whole-week-in-victoria, plant-power-promises-to-shrink-solar-panel-size-grow-output-in-new-research, snowy-2-0-the-making-of-one-of-australias-most-spectacular-infrastructure-debacles, snowy-delays-add-supply-tensions-to-grid-but-new-big-batteries-ease-short-term-worries, new-solar-records-take-module-efficiency-and-output-to-fresh-highs, south-australia-grid-with-the-most-wind-and-solar-has-the-smallest-reliability-gap, gas-industry-still-talking-garbage-about-big-batteries-knowing-they-will-kill-its-dirty-cartel
• Deborah Ralston on 31-years-after-the-advent-of-compulsory-super-the-government-is-about-to-decide-what-its-for-the-answer-will-matter
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-no-labors-honeymoon-is-not-over
• Dylan McConnell on australias-energy-market-operator-is-worried-about-the-grids-reliability-but-should-it-be
• Greg Jericho on too-much-of-superannuation-has-become-a-tax-dodge-that-massively-favours-the-rich
• Croaking Cassandra on a-couple-of-mps-thoughts
• Sarah Ann Wheeler on water-buybacks-are-back-on-the-table-again-in-the-murray-darling-basin-heres-a-refresher-on-how-they-work
• Ama Samarasinghe on looking-for-a-financial-adviser-6-expert-tips-to-find-the-best-one-for-you

Northern America

• Andrew Prokop on fox-news-trump-tucker-carlson-dominion-lawsuit
• noahopinion on the-us-cannot-afford-to-turn-against-immigration, repost-much-of-what-youve-heard-about-carter-and-reagan-is-wrong, dont-be-a-doomer
• Janet Malzhan and Andrew Hall on election denying republicans under performed on 2022 elections Thanks Tyler Cowen
• Menzie Chinn on one-year-in-what-did-putins-gambit-do-to-spreads-uncertainty-and-activity
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-abortion-mifepristone-ron-wyden-senate-fda-matthew-kascmaryk, supreme-court-twitter-taamneh-isis-terrorism-section-230-justice
• Christian Paz on joe-biden-economy-approval-rating
• Jeet Heer on buttigieg-palestine-train-disaster-paralysis-after-the-east-palestine-disaster-is-a-gift-to-hard-right
• Benjamin Wallace-Wells on the-political-scene/what-is-ron-desantis-doing-to-floridas-public-liberal-arts-college
• the conversable economist on how-wwii-reduced-us-productivity

Europe

• Michaeel Bluhm on  russia-ukraine-offensive-putin-donbas-bakhmut
• Tim Harford on is-life-in-the-uk-really-as-bad-as-the-numbers-suggest-yes-it-is
• Mathew Sussex on a-year-on-russias-war-on-ukraine-threatens-to-redraw-the-map-of-world-politics-and-2023-will-be-crucial
• Mainly Macro on in-comparing-prosperity-across-counties-productity-and-inequality-is-everything
• stumbling and bumbling on anti-business
• Mark Edele on essentialising-russia-wont-end-the-war-against-ukraine-might-real-and-credible-force-be-the-answer
• Mehmet Ozalp on will-the-turkish-earthquakes-affect-how-the-country-is-governed
• Melinda Rankin on russia-ukraine-accountability-global-order-precipice
• Fred Kaplan on putin-new-start-nuclear-treaty-biden
• William Partlett on peace-in-ukraine-doesnt-ultimately-depend-on-putin-or-zelensky-its-the-ukrainian-people-who-must-decide
• Elliot Cohen on biden-ukraine
• Anne Applebaum and Natalyia Gumenyuk on russia-ukraine-war-potemkin-occupation-murder-torture
• Gordon Sanders on finlands-turn-to-the-west
• Susan Barba on the-road-to-artsakh
• Bermat Talant on russia-has-already-lost-next-year-will-decide-if-ukraine-can-win

Asia

• Amnar Nainar on india-s-defence-diplomacy-bet
• Alexander Hynd and Max Broad on indonesia-s-own-subs-conundrum
• renew economy on china-now-has-enough-wind-and-solar-to-power-every-home
• Mariza Cooray and Roland Rajah on confronting-mounting-human-costs-sri-lanka-s-debt-spiral
• Michael Clarke on wang-yi-s-fruitless-diplomacy-europe
• Joshua Kurlantzick on chinese-interference-dangerous-also-often-ineffective-counterproductive
• Claire Porter Robbins on israel-right-wing-young-voters-palestine

Wonk

• Peter Temin  on  price behaviour in ancient babylon Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-are-google-data-really-useful-for-macroeconomic-nowcasting, trade-and-financial-policy-openness-in-emdes-1975-2019
• coppolla comment on proof-of-reserves-is-proof-of-nothing
• Nick Gruen on fighting-political-polarisation
• the conversable economist on lead-a-global-health-problem, qualms-about-linking-executive-pay-to-social-goals
• Grant Douglas on radioactive-waste-isnt-going-away-weve-found-a-new-way-to-trap-it-in-minerals-for-long-term-storage
• Lauren Sanders on why-ukraine-should-not-become-a-testing-ground-for-the-worlds-new-weapons
• noahopinion on wokeness-as-mainline-orthodoxy
• coppolla comment on proof-of-reserves-is-proof-of-nothing

General

• Naomi Milthorpe on locked-down-with-d-h-lawrence-yeah-nah
• Thanh-Son Pharm and HrvjoeThalcic on in-a-new-study-weve-observed-clues-that-distinguish-the-very-deepest-part-of-earths-core
• Ivo Labbe on we-just-discovered-the-impossible-how-giant-baby-galaxies-are-shaking-up-our-understanding-of-the-early-universe

Climate 

• and Then Theres Physics on escape-from-model-land
• Skeptical Science on the science denial network 
• skeptical science on what were climate scientists predicting in the 70s

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-political-consequences-of-party-polarization-and-state-level-aggregation
  
• contradictions-within-economic-theory-all-well-known-but-still-important-and-i-think-not-taken-as-seriously-as-they-should-be
  
• any-particularly-favourite-result-sections
  
• why-i-dont-trust-libertarian-paternalism-part-65
  
• the-placebo-effect-as-selection-bias
  
• erroneous-statistics-in-physical-review-physics-education-research-causal-conclusions-that-are-unsupported-by-evidence-and-sometimes-e-g-on-use-of-gres-flatly-contradicted-by-the-evidence
  
• software-to-sow-doubts-as-you-meta-analyze
  
• manipulating-a-machine-learning-method-by-feeding-it-doctored-training-data
  
• how-to-think-about-proofs-of-correctness-of-computer-programs
  
• No Hesitations on eight-steps-to-gauss
• Freakometrics on statistics and society
• Kaiser Fung on strategies-for-validating-observational-studies-22 , when-you-dont-need-data

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• are-you-a-sentient-ai
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• euro-weakness-2022
  
• why-it-imperative-help-ukraine
  
• all-out-aggression-requires-all-out-response
  
• time-step-policy-coordination-euro-area
  
• teachers-use-class-time-and-student-achievement
  
• smiles-profiles-improving-fairness-and-efficiency-using-estimates-user-preferences
  
• how-many-people-earth-world-population-1800-1938
  
• peace-dividend-can-be-saved-ukraine
  
• trauma-european-currency-crises-1990s-and-consequences-until-today
  
• incumbents-have-upper-hand-elections-coordination-failures-give-them-further
  
• foreign-support-ukraine-evidence-database-military-financial-and-humanitarian-aid
  
• anti-corruption-policies-reconstructing-ukraine
  
• effects-startup-acquisitions-innovation-and-economic-growth
  
• leverage-and-stablecoin-pegs
  
• commissions-orientations-revised-economic-governance-eu
  
• russian-invasion-and-risks-global-financial-stability
  

electricity reliability

 Dylan McConnell helpfully explains what AEMO came out with early this week.

Guess which state has the most reliable electricity? South Australia!!

Poll Roundup

 The inimitable Kevin Bonham gives us his latest poll roundup and tell us no the honeymoon is not over.

Ukraine One Year on

 It is one year since russia invaded Ukraine . Ukrainians will argue it is far longer then that and they would be right. It is why they want no 'peace' until the crimea is back in Ukraine!

Mathew Sussex writes a very interesting and thoughtful article.

Indian debacle

 I was not shocked that we lost the 2nd test to India but I was shocked at the way we lost.

Back to basics. We  lost comprehensively in the 1st test.  Our batting was not up to speed and our bowlers lacked bite. The selections for the second test which we had to win simply did not make sense.

Making the sweep your main attacking stroke when the ball is not bouncing makes the shot very risky for little reward. All of our batsmen looked at sea when batting. In essence we only scored well when we had luck. 

You really are stretching it when two of your bowler have only played one test between them.

The best thing about the tests thus far is that the bowlers are on top. Test cricket is far better to watch when a wicket can occur at any time!  It was the same in New Zealand.

Bocelli and Brightman

 This is simply breathtaking

Around the Traps 17/2/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Hussein Dei on why-a-shift-to-basing-vehicle-registration-fees-on-emissions-matters-for-australia
• Che Brown et al on heres-some-context-missing-from-the-mparntwe-alice-springs-crime-wave-reporting
• Isaac Gross on rbas-latest-forecasts-are-grim-here-are-5-reasons-why
• Ross Gittins on interest-rates-lowes-not-the-problem
• renew eonomy on wind-and-solar-output-set-landmark-new-milestone-in-australias-rapidly-changing-grid, disastrous-tunnelling-delays-underline-complete-folly-of-snowy-2-0-pumped-hydro-scheme, more-than-5gw-of-new-wind-and-solar-committed-to-construction-in-record-breaking-2022, carbon-market-confusion-as-offsets-take-another-hit
• Dennis Muller on news-corps-job-cuts-cast-a-shadow-over-the-future-of-its-newspapers
• Daniel Ghezelbash on changes-to-temporary-protection-visas-are-a-welcome-development-and-they-wont-encourage-people-smugglers
• Frank Bongornio on the-history-of-referendums-in-australia-is-riddled-with-failure-albanese-has-much-at-risk-and-much-to-gain
• David Sharma on ukraine-needs-tanks-australia-should-send-some
• John Quiggin on australias-banks-are-not-a-source-of-economic-dynamism-but-a-drag-on-our-economic-and-social-welfare
• Greg Barton on covid-wasnt-a-bumper-campaign-for-right-wing-extremists-but-the-threat-from-terror-remains
• Jon Piccini on the-1967-referendum-was-the-most-successful-in-australias-history-but-what-it-can-tell-us-about-2023-is-complicated

Northern America

• Liz Zhou on house-republicans-investigations-biden-mccarthy-jordan
• the conversable economist on mergers-and-enforcement-in-2021-hart-scott-rodino
• noahopinion on welcome-to-the-ufo-wars
• Dennis Aftergut and Laurence Tribe on mike-pence-challenging-trump-special-counsel-subpoena-fail
• Jeet Heer on politics/trump-family-saudi-corruption
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-07
• Elizabeth Buchanan on balloon-goes-washington-s-decisive-decade
• Andrew Prokop on trump-russia-cjr-jeff-gerth-russiagate
• new deal democrat on inflation-is-decelerating-substantially-towards-the-fed-target-addendum-the-huge-impact-of-shelter

Europe

• noahopinion on europe-has-to-stand-against-russia
• stumbling and mumbling on lee-anderson-the-nature-of-politics
• Oliver Alexander on blowing-holes-in-seymour-hershs-pipe Thanks Tyler
• Mainly Macro on why-does-current-political-right-find-it-so-hard-to-learn

Asia

• Institutional Economics on the-bojs-blast-from-the-past
• John Katchtik on maldives-geopolitics-chinese-tourism
• Dara Conduit on as-syrians-were-trapped-beneath-the-rubble-a-broken-un-system-was-held-hostage-by-the-assad-regime
• Khang Vu on why-north-korea-denying-its-involvement-russia-s-war-ukraine
• Ammar Nainar on india-s-defence-diplomacy-bet

Wonk

• William Gourlay on grim-toll-turkiye-s-earthquake-will-also-shift-regional-politics
• Tim Harford on what-economists-get-wrong-about-personal-finance
• Chris Bertram on then-politics-of-the-second-best
• Mohammed El-Erian on why-the-resurgent-transitory-inflation-narrative-is-dangerous Thanks Brad
• Hugh Breakey on the-worthless-life-and-the-worthy-death-euthanasia-through-the-ages
• Dee Ninus and Mathew Gerstenberger on nobody-can-predict-earthquakes-but-we-can-forecast-them-heres-how
• David Zetland on the-long-shadow-of-apartheid
• the conversable economist on lead-a-global-health-problem
• noahopinion on decoupling-is-not-deglobalization

General

• Clare Davidson on from-chaucer-to-chocolates-how-valentines-day-gifts-have-changed-over-the-centuries
• David McInnes on reade-him-therefore-and-againe-and-againe-its-the-400th-anniversary-of-shakespeares-first-folio-a-monumental-project-put-together-by-his-friends

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on the-pono-principle
• Met office on is-the-future-of-alpine-skiing-all-downhill
• BOM on annual-climate-statement-2022-australias-ninth-wettest-year-on-record
• Ravi Naidu on forever-chemicals-have-made-their-way-to-farms-for-now-levels-in-your-food-are-low-but-theres-no-time-to-waste
• Moyhu on giss-january-global-temperature-up-from-december

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

wanted-a-catalog-of-the-sorts-of-problems-that-can-and-cant-be-solved-using-statistics

yale-prof-thinks-that-murdering-oldsters-is-a-complex-nuanced-issue

columbia-journalism-review-garbles-public-opinion-stats

lancet-finally-publishes-letters-shooting-down-erroneous-excess-mortality-estimates

identify-the-time-series-a-little-statistics-puzzle

chatgpt-brms-dungeons-and-dragons

Kaiser Fung on strategies-for-validating-observational-studies-22

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• whose-deep-responsibility
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• inflationary-impact-energy-prices
  
• slavery-and-british-industrial-revolution
  
• why-world-needs-ukraine-much-ukraine-needs-world
  
• economic-integration-and-transmission-democracy
  
• how-financial-incentives-affect-performance
  
• why-west-needs-ukraine-and-its-it-business
  
• eu-economy-set-escape-recession-headwinds-persist-commissions-winter-2023-economic
  
• recession-russia-deepens-evidence-alternative-tracker-domestic-economic-activity
  
• production-and-democracy
  
• interest-rates-and-spatial-polarisation-housing-markets
  
• ukraine-reconstruction-some-insights-slovak-reforms
  
• international-policy-coordination-during-disinflation
  
• domestic-and-foreign-owned-multinationals-us-economy-insights-newly-linked-data
  

Apartheid

 A really interesting article at Angry Bear the-long-shadow-of-apartheid

Recession deepening in Russia

 here is the article

recession-russia-deepens-evidence-alternative-tracker-domestic-economic-activity

Seymour Hersh smashed

 Seymour Hersh produced a recent article saying it was the Biden administration that blew up the nord stream pipeline.

Via Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution  Olivier Alexander demolishes the whole theory and it aint pretty.

Stoltenberg must have been an  intelligence genius at 16!!

More sport

 Sydney Derby

This was one of the few derbies I actually got to see as my youngest boy had his birthday. wonderful game. A great goal another almost great goal, several very good chances , half chances and a red card. A pity the Ref's yellow card could not get out of his pocket.

A fantastic atmosphere thanks to the RBB.  

The A-League is looking good.

First Test

We were outplayed from start to finish. I was not surprised. I simply did not understand the selections. Why take Agar to India if he was not going to play. If he was unimpressive in Sydney then surely he would be in India. Head was in terrific form and you drop him.

Wasn't it good to watch a test when the bowling was on top.

Around the Traps 10/2/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Libby Rumpf et al on 200-experts-dissected-the-black-summer-bushfires-in-unprecedented-detail-here-are-6-lessons-to-heed
• Marion Terrill  and Natasha Bradshaw on how-to-save-4-billion-a-year-reform-a-fuel-tax-credit-scheme-with-no-real-rationale
• Murray Goot on how-much-has-support-for-the-voice-fallen-it-depends-on-how-you-ask
• Peter Breadon and Lachlan Fox on medicare-reform-is-off-to-a-promising-start-now-comes-the-hard-part
• Peter Martin on higher-interest-rates-falling-home-prices-and-real-wages-but-no-recession-top-economists-forecasts-for-2023
• Ross Gittins on want-better-economy-design-better-policies-don't-pick-sides, if-gps-want-more-money-theyll-have-to-be-less-allergic-to-change
• renew economy on the-radical-plan-to-build-worlds-biggest-green-electrolyser-and-hydrogen-power-plant, networks-win-rights-to-access-community-battery-scheme-in-controversial-call-by-regulator, wa-fossil-fuel-woes-continue-as-coal-shortages-prompt-aemo-warnings, graph-of-the-day-solar-covers-all-of-south-australia-demand-for-six-hours-straight, big-solar-and-wind-pipeline-boosted-by-4-3gw-of-new-committed-projects-in-2022, agl-looks-to-evs-batteries-and-rooftop-solar-as-it-goes-local-and-digests-massive-loss, solar-and-sheep-the-future-of-regional-australia-and-the-key-to-better-quality-wool, wind-turbine-failure-rates-are-rising-has-the-industry-gone-too-big-too-fast
• Ian McKinnon on a-tenth-of-all-electricity-is-lost-in-the-grid-superconducting-cables-can-help
• Peter Martin on rba-warns-of-at-least-2-more-interest-rate-rises-in-coming-months-as-the-economic-outlook-worsens
• Croaking Cassandra on reappointing-orr-some-documents
• Kevin Bonham on lidia-thorpe-quits-greens
• Charles Livingstone on nsw-pokies-reforms-will-do-much-to-limit-problem-gambling-and-money-laundering
• Hao Tan on the-coal-whack-a-mole-getting-rid-of-coal-power-will-make-prices-fall-and-demand-rise-elsewhere
• Leigh Howard on what-china-thaw-means-australia-s-trade-diversification-agenda
• Greg Jericho on the-reserve-bank-wants-unemployment-to-rise-it-should-be-careful-what-it-wishes-for
• Henry Cutler on need-a-bulk-billing-gp-why-throwing-more-money-at-medicare-isnt-the-answer
• William Fisher on richard-woolcott-navigating-great-change

Northern America

• Carl Walsh on inflation-surges-in-perspective Thanks Menzie
• Ellen Ioannes on republican-debt-ceiling-kevin-mccarthy
• noahopinion on threats-to-the-dollar-are-just-scare-stories
• Very Serious on why-republicans-find-it-hard-to-be-nice thanks Brad
• Maggie Koerth on absence-of-evidence-gun-laws
• Peter Dorman on this-is-what-happens-when-progressives-look-the-other-way
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on abortion-pill-outlawed-single-judge-real-possibility
• Alex Tabarrok on surely-right
• Jeet Heer on china-balloon-gap-crisis
• Menzie Chinn on debt-held-by-the-public-as-share-of-gdp
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-abortion-dobbs-jackson-handy-united-states-judge-kollar-kotelly
• Timothy Keller on christianity-secularization-america-renewal-modernity
• the conversable economist on hard-and-soft-landings-the-federal-reserves-record
• Michael Spence and Belinda Azenui on us-productivity-growth-non-tradable-sectors-labor-shortages Thanks Brad
• Barry Eichengreen on house-gop-debt-ceiling-narrative-wrong-facts Thanks Brad

Europe

• Ian Hill on russia-ukraine-wars-soviet-succession
• Jen Kirby on turkey-sweden-finland-nato-membership
• Alexander Vidman on what-ukraine-needs-to-liberate-crimea Thanks Brad
• Claire Berlinski on europe-putin-ukraine-google-translate thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on fiscal-reporting-at-bbc
• Amy Maguire on putin-is-now-implicated-in-the-downing-of-flight-mh17-so-why-is-the-investigation-shutting-down
• Dahlia Martin on germany-strong-indicators-mask-loss-of-competitiveness Thanks Brad
• Andrew Reid on new-north-sea-exploration-licenses-pose-threat-uks-future-energy-security

Asia

• Daniel Depetris on chinese-invasion-taiwan-isn-t-inevitable
• Suryaputra Wijaksana on global-energy-scarcity-south-china-sea
• noahopinion on can-india-industrialize
• Roland Rajah and Robert Walker on china-s-growth-prospects-after-zero-covid
• Stephanie Fillion on caution-tact-how-asian-countries-voted-ukraine-un
• Kim Ghattas on earthquake-syria-turkey-civil-war-humanitarian-aid
• Yair Rosenberg on israel-palestine-west-bank-illegal-settlement-netanyahu

Wonk

• Tim Harford on the-seven-types-of-email-you-should-never-send
• noahopinion on you-are-now-living-through-cold-war-2, stock-buybacks-dont-really-matter
• the conversable economist on biologics-and-biosimilars-a-test-for-intellectual-propery, winter-2023-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-online
• Dennis Desmond on beyond-spy-balloons-here-are-7-kinds-of-intelligence-spies-want-and-how-they-get-it
• C Raina McIntyre et al on yes-masks-reduce-the-risk-of-spreading-covid-despite-a-review-saying-they-dont
• Donald Rothwell on did-chinas-balloon-violate-international-law
• Peter Layton on chinese-grey-zone-spy-balloons-over-american-heartland
• Menzie Chinn on revisiting-exchange-market-pressure
• Mark Quigley on earthquake-footage-shows-turkeys-buildings-collapsing-like-pancakes-an-expert-explains-why
• coppolla comment on the-fatal-flaws-of-celsius-network

General

• Neil Durrant on 3-reasons-not-to-be-a-stoic-and-try-nietzsche-instead
• John Munro on learning-grammar-is-just-as-important-as-it-always-was-but-the-way-we-teach-it-has-changed
• Szymek Drobniak on new-bird-brain-study-shows-evolving-a-big-brain-depends-on-having-good-parents

Climate

• Real Climate on updates-to-model-observation-comparisons, the-established-ground-and-new-ideas
• and Then Theres Physics on climate-science-as-a-social-process
• David Appell on sea-ice-extent-update
• noahopinion on repost-why-im-so-excited-about-solar-and-batteries
• Moyhu on january-global-surface-templs-up-0014-from-december
• Met Office on are-we-expecting-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming, the-beautiful-game-in-a-changing-climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• writing-that-changed-my-life
  
• stocks-go-down-during-the-day-and-up-at-night
  
• checking-survey-representativeness-by-looking-at-canary-variables
  
• great-news-from-next-year-elife-is-eliminating-accept-reject-decisions-after-peer-review-instead-focusing-on-public-reviews-and-assessments-of-preprints
  
• great-news-from-next-year-elife-is-eliminating-accept-reject-decisions-after-peer-review-instead-focusing-on-public-reviews-and-assessments-of-preprints
  
• great-news-from-next-year-elife-is-eliminating-accept-reject-decisions-after-peer-review-instead-focusing-on-public-reviews-and-assessments-of-preprints
  
• R Bloggers on cricket-weighted-batting-average-in-r
• Kaiser Fung on strategies-for-validating-observational-studies
• econometric sense on what-is-new-and-different-about-difference-in-difference

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• righteous-anger
  
• croaking cassandra on harry-white-and-reconstructing-the-international-financial-system

Vox wonk

• boomerang-college-kids-unemployment-job-mismatch-and-co-residence
  
• interwar-trade-policy-netherlands-and-netherlands-east-indies
  
• governor-appointments-and-central-bank-independence
  
• institutional-investors-hedging-foreign-exchange-risk-investing-equities-abroad-can
  
• stabilising-financial-markets-lending-and-market-making-last-resort
  
• flight-from-russia
  
• scarring-hysteresis-and-investment-europe
  
• targeting-precision-medicine-evidence-prenatal-screening
  
• helping-ukraine-not-only-crucial-peace-europe-also-world-peace
  
• privatising-disability-insurance
  
• understanding-borders-and-conflict-economic-perspective
  
• stories-statistics-and-memory
  
• how-war-increasing-inequality-russia
  
• sweet-equality-sugar-property-rights-and-land-distribution-colonial-java
  

how many more rate hikes can we expect

 The RBA hiked the official cash rates another 25 basis points and said there are more to come.

Now plenty of people are saying the RBA is going in too hard and we might even have a recession.

Whoa there. Yes it is the RBA's job to talk tough but after the recession we had to have which if we believe the RBA was THEIR fault  ( SuperMac told us so) they are acutely aware of business surveys and their usefulness in gauging how price pressures are going. At present they are saying prices are falling!

We do know we have yet to see the impact of a whole lot of homebuyers having to switch from low fixed rates to higher floating rates. The RBA is more than aware if you cause a 'housing recession. them  onetary policy cannot do much.

Add all that together I see the RBA continuing to talk tough BUT if business surveys continue to show price pressures falling then perhaps we might only have one more rise and even then only 15 points. Perhaps it is more realistic to see another 25 point rise and then a final 15 point rise in April.

We shall wee

Helping Ukraine helps the World

 Gerard Roland writes a magnificent column at vox wonk as I call it.

helping-ukraine-not-only-crucial-peace-europe-also-world-peace

Do masks reduce the risk of spreading covid

 the answer is yes but there is nuance.

READ it.

climate models V observations

 Real Climate does an annual examination of looking at climate models versus observations.

not bad eh!

Around the Traps 3/2/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on reviewing-the-mpcs-remit
• renew economy on world-first-solar-methanol-plant-to-feed-off-port-augusta-solar-thermal-project, location-location-battery-storage-projects-jostle-for-position-to-back-up-wind-and-solar, sun-cable-its-much-more-viable-than-you-think-at-the-right-price, energy-arbitrage-sends-big-battery-revenue-to-new-record-high-in-2022, solar-farms-that-put-cow-comfort-and-crop-yield-ahead-of-harvesting-electrons,offshore-wind-industry-is-missing-a-crucial-piece-of-the-planning-puzzle, our-climate-challenge-is-our-greatest-opportunity-so-how-do-we-get-it-right, university-of-adelaide-researchers-successfully-split-seawater-to-produce-green-hydrogen, victorias-biggest-wind-farm-lures-major-new-investor-with-billions-earmarked-for-renewables
• Flavio Macau on whats-driving-the-potato-chip-shortage-and-when-will-it-pass
• Kathy Eagar on heres-who-decides-cause-of-death-how-death-certificates-work-and-whether-a-person-died-with-or-of-covid
• Rick Sarre and Lorana Bartels on discriminatory-impact-on-first-nations-people-coroner-calls-for-urgent-bail-reform-in-veronica-nelson-inquest
• Peter Layton on australia-s-return-must-win-wars
• John Finnigan et al on weve-lost-a-giant-vale-professor-will-steffen-climate-science-pioneer
• Kate Griffiths and Iris Chan on big-money-was-spent-on-the-2022-election-but-the-party-with-the-deepest-pockets-didnt-win
• Sam Roggeveen  on marles-torpedoes-french-subs-yet-explain-nuclear-advantage
• Ross Gittins on labors-new-plan-to-reduce-our-emissions-is-riddled-with-loopholes
• Hassan Vally on covid-remains-a-global-emergency-the-world-health-organization-says-but-were-at-a-transition-point-what-does-this-mean

Northern America

• eyes on the right on the-two-americas-on-religion Thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on the-bounce-in-disposable-personal-income
• Umair Irfan on texas-clean-energy-wind-solar-natural-gas-ercot-blackout
• Ian Millhiser on ron-desantis-supreme-court-constitution-death-penalty-execution-sixth-eight-amendment
• Menzie Chinn on cyclically-adjusted-federal-budget-balance, the-cyclically-adjusted-budget-balance-and-federal-debt-held-by-the-public-time-series, guest-contribution-gauging-recessions-with-the-jobs-workers-gap-january-2023
• noahopinion on professionalize-the-police, friend-shoring-vs-buy-american, threats-to-the-dollar-are-just-scare-stories
• run75441 on firearm-physical-injury-healthcare-costs-for-patients
• thinking about on the-specter-of-2016 Thanks Brad
• Jay Willis on the-second-funniest-detail-from-the-supreme-courts-leak-report Thanks Brad
• Ben Jacobs on george-santos-fake-resume
• Jeet Heer on gop-anti-abortion-extremism, tyre-nichols-killing-police-democrats
• David Frum on republican-midterm-election-performance-trump-dr-oz
• Jonathan Mingle on no-smoke-no-fire
• the grumpy economist on the-fed-and-debt-limit
• Institutional Economics on the-us-recession-that-isnt-the-contrarian

Europe

• Nikola Mikovic on how-russia-loses-allies-amid-war-ukraine
• Peter Sinclair on leapards-eating-his-face-putin-losing-gas-war-in-europe
• stumbling and mumbling on cargo-cult-economics
• Mainly Macro on sewage-in-rivers-and-on-beaches-may-sink-the-conservatives
• Phillips O'Brien on us-germany-ukraine-tanks-russia-nato
• Timothy Ash on ukraine-in-our-future
• renew economy on record-solar-and-wind-output-is-crushing-coal-in-eu-and-already-beating-gas
• Frank Bass on european-pressurized-reactors-nuclear-powers-latest-costly-and-delayed-disappointments

Asia

• Ratih Kabinawa and Permangas Dewanto on indonesia-gets-ball-rolling-domestic-worker-rights
• Rachel DuRose on zero-covid-china-lockdowns-future-pandemics-public-health
• Menzie Chinn on china-gdp-and-forecasts
• Sussan Heupner on why-the-violence-between-israel-and-the-palestinians-may-be-entering-a-devastating-new-phase
• Zahid Ahmed on is-terrorism-returning-to-pakistan
• Suryaputra Wijaksana on global-energy-scarcity-south-china-sea

Wonk

• Nicholas Farrelly and Adam Simpson on why-has-the-west-given-billions-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-but-virtually-ignored-myanmar
• Tim Harford on your-absurd-hypothetical-questions-answered
• noahopinion on would-breaking-up-google-really-do-any-good, vertical-communities, professionalize-the-police, why-does-chatgpt-constantly-lie
• John Quiggin on adani-and-madoff
• John Ehrenreich on lab-leak-three-years-debate-covid-origins
• Uneasy Money on a-new-version-of-my-paper-between-walras-and-marshall-mengers-third-way-is-now-available-on-ssrn
• Harold James on backlash-against-markets-globalization-growth-is-confused-and-flawed Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on data-sources-a-compendium-updated
• sandwichman on the-unbearable-tightness-of-peaking
• the conversable economist on retirement-ages-some-international-comparisons
• Antonios Sarhanis on the-fertility-rate-the-best-damn-wellbeing-index-going-around

General

• Juliana Segura-Salazar and Kathryn Moore on the-hype-is-out-of-this-world-but-mining-in-space-wont-save-the-earth
• Jonti Horner on australia-is-finally-getting-a-last-chance-view-of-a-green-comet-not-seen-for-50-000-years
• Christian Wolf on why-do-black-holes-twinkle-we-studied-5-000-star-eating-behemoths-to-find-out

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on true-contrarians, the-escalator
• met office on how-do-climate-change-air-quality-and-our-health-interact
• Emma Marris on climate-change-paris-agreement-15-degrees-celsius-goal
• Skeptical Science on the escalator rises again
• Eric Nordbeg on win-win-how-solar-farms-can-double-as-havens-for-our-wildlife

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• the-importance-of-bumblers-and-pointers-in-science-and-the-division-of-labor
  
• grade-inflation-why-hasnt-italready-reached-its-terminal-stage
  
• you-wish-youre-first-to-invent-this-scale-transform-50-xx-240-x-7
  
• changes-since-the-1970s-esp-edition
  
• alberto-cairos-visualization-course
  
• disappointing-lack-of-institutional-memory-at-the-new-yorker
  
• on-the-ethics-of-pollsters-or-journalists-or-political-scientists-betting-on-prediction-markets
  
• the-undying-holiday-suicide-myth
  
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-34-we-reserve-the-right-to-refuse-service-to-anyone

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• internationalising-china
  
• theory-fair-ceo-pay
  
• market-integration-and-expansion-renewable-energy-evidence-chile
  
• traumatic-experiences-adversely-affect-lifecycle-labour-market-outcomes-next
  
• violence-loyalty-and-decline-black-marriages-us
  
• attention-and-social-tariffs-lessons-energy-crisis
  
• race-and-redistribution-us-experimental-analysis
  
• place-based-policies-italian-case-part-1-lot-money-little-or-no-growth
  
• effect-new-technologies-workers-jobs-and-skills
  
• place-based-policies-italian-case-part-2-mind-negative-side-effects
  
• distinguishing-between-common-and-cross-ownership-lessons-global-automobile-industry
  
• gender-gaps-academies-0
  

It is not looking good in Israel/ Palestine

 THIS is a very depressing read.

I think one of the largest roadblocks to peace is the inability of both Israelis and Palestinians to see the other as human. Take away the humanity and it becomes easy to murder