The russian sanctions are working

 One of my favourites Noah Smith at noahopinion ( get it?) writes on yes-sanctions-on-russia-are-working

I went to Tamworth

 I am a cricket umpire and the annual umpires conference was on at Tamworth so I decided to go for the first time. I had a great time.

Observations in no particular order.

1. Trucks go a lot faster then 90k that I was driving at going there.
2. I got there on less than half a tank of petrol.
3. Tamworth's petrol prices are 5cents less than at West Ryde ( which are not the dearest around).
4. I drove much faster going home and without a break. I just wanted to be home.
5. I stopped twice going there because I didn't really care when I got there
6. There is little traffic on the New England highway
7. My hotel di not have the test cricket. It did have motorbike races ( very boring) and golf ( just boring).
8. I got to sleep late on friday night as the couple in the next room was having sex and the woman much have kept everyone up by her moans!

The reckonings of europe

 Gerard Reid writes an interesting article at renew economy on the-six-reckonings-of-europes-energy-crisis-gas-nuclear-war-and-inflation

Abortion in America

 Tim Harford, a highly readable economist and columnist, turns his head to abortion-and-women-in-america-what-the-numbers-tell-us.

Around the Traps 26/8/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark Kenny on australian-conservatism-succumbs-to-the-same-radical-tendency-as-like-minded-parties-abroad
• Kate Griffiths et al on pork-barrelling-is-unfair-and-wasteful-heres-a-plan-to-end-it
• Richard Olruntoba et al on conflict-in-the-south-china-sea-threatens-90-of-australias-fuel-imports-study
• David Walker on morrisons-secret-powers-scandal-democracy-is-safe
• Ross Gittins on good-news-why-our-low-unemployment-rate-will-last, housing-own-goal-worsens-our-inflation-problem, welcome-to-job-treasurer-rather-you-than-me
• Lisa Hill on australians-are-tired-of-lies-in-political-advertising-heres-how-it-can-be-fixed
• renew economy on snowy-2-0-hit-by-new-billion-dollar-cost-blowout-claims, even-a-one-year-delay-in-new-transmission-links-will-hurt-homes-and-businesses, coal-plant-outages-and-rebidding-why-electricity-prices-surged-towards-market-cap, solars-growing-daytime-dominance-caps-a-miserable-winter-for-ageing-coal-plants, wind-turbine-blades-can-be-recast-into-candy-and-nappies-says-new-research, hydrogen-in-the-gas-grid-is-a-dumb-idea-very-dumb, a-near-100-per-cent-renewables-grid-is-well-within-reach-and-with-little-storage, terawatts-of-solar-and-a-million-new-jobs-new-report-crunches-net-zero-numbers
• croaking cassandra on orr-defending-the-lsap
• Robin Smit on the-road-to-new-fuel-efficiency-rules-is-filled-with-potholes-heres-how-australia-can-avoid-them
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-albanese-honeymoon-phase
• Greg Jericho on large-firms-are-consolidating-power-like-scott-morrison-consolidates-jobs-and-its-hurting-productivity
• Jim Stanford on if-productivity-was-the-magical-fix-some-claim-we-wouldnt-need-a-jobs-summit
• Pi-Shen Seet and Janice Jones on yes-we-know-there-is-a-skills-shortage-here-are-3-jobs-summit-ideas-to-start-fixing-it-right-away

Northern America

• Mathew Cooper on trump-will-be-indicted Thanks Brad
• Ben Jacobs on liz-cheney-never-trump-republicans, georgia-trump-fani-willis-investigation
• Jim Newell on republicans-senate-chances-getting-dicey
• Tim Harford on abortion-and-women-in-america-what-the-numbers-tell-us
• Nate Silver on can-tim-ryan-really-win-ohios-senate-race
• the bellows on what-is-trumpism-exactly? Thanks Brad
• Jonathan Chait on fbi-raid-isnt-unprecedented-trumps-criminality-is Thanks Brad
• the grumpy economist on wsj-inflation-stability-oped-with-pictures

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on cepr-macroeconomic-policies-for-wartime-ukraine
• Tyler Cowen on post-covid-excess-deaths-in-britain
• Mainly Macro on after-the-virus
• Marcus Colla on six-months-war-ukraine-europe-s-life-fate
• Tom Nicholls on a-murder-in-russia
• Mathew Sussex on russia-is-fighting-three-undeclared-wars-its-fourth-an-internal-struggle-for-russia-itself-might-be-looming

Asia

• Robert Stone on china-losing-ground-sri-lanka
• Manya Koeste on social-media-spectacle-china-s-taiwan-military-exercises
• Menzie Chinn on military-conflict-and-economic-warfare-china-taiwan, taiwan-strait-balance-of-forces
• Kuan Lee on china-semiconductor-industry-leapfrog-us-competition, china-development-faces-two-traps
• Samina Yasmeen on whats-the-dispute-between-imran-khan-and-the-pakistan-government-about
• Saamriddi Roy on blue-economy-may-be-key-south-asia-s-upswing
• joshua Leifer on uneasy-alliance-in-jerusalem
• Shaun Cameron on will-thailand-s-prime-minister-defy-time

Wonk

• noahopinion on the-war-economy-is-america-falling-behind-china, four-reasons-why-gdp-is-a-useful-number, the-uphill-battle-women-still-face-in-high-finance
• the conversable economist on drowning-in-figures, adam-smith-and-pin-making-some-inconvenient-truths, why-is-it-called-dynamic-programming, is-economics-disqualified-by-ideological-bias

General

• Mel Taylor and Katherine Haynes on no-not-again-a-third-straight-la-nina-is-likely-heres-how-you-and-your-family-can-prepare
• Luke Barnes et al on astronomers-have-detected-one-of-the-biggest-black-hole-jets-in-the-sky
• Tanya Smith and Daniel Green on revelations-from-17-million-year-old-ape-teeth-could-lead-to-new-insights-on-early-human-evolution

Climate

• Skeptical Science on most bleak report on high/tide sunny day tide floods

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• krueger-uber-100000-update
  
• science-says-get-married-at-age-whatever-you-want-and-these-are-the-odds-of-divorce
  
• referendums-as-a-way-of-reducing-political-polarization-some-discussion
  
• i-agree-with-dean-eckles-that-this-study-effects-of-political-versus-expert-messaging-on-vaccination-intentions-of-trump-voters-is-too-noisy-to-be-useful-when-will-we-reach-the-point-where-res
  
• update-a-possible-answer-to-the-gladwell-penn-state-question
  
• here-comes-the-stats-the-impact-of-incidental-contextual-factors-on-research-acquisition
  
• Kaiser Fung on andrew-screaming-about-professional-fouls
• statschat on less-creepy-than-it-sounds

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on complexity-in-prediction

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-slouch-of-history
  
• too-complicated-for-tragedy
  

Vox Wonk

• corporations-under-autocracy-lessons-russian-and-german-history
  
• feds-international-dollar-liquidity-facilities-roles-and-effects
  
• improving-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanisms
  
• size-and-census-coverage-us-homeless-population
  
• latest-us-tariff-sanctions-russia-sectoral-analysis
  
• feds-international-dollar-liquidity-facilities-roles-and-effects
  
• improving-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanisms
  
• size-and-census-coverage-us-homeless-population
  
• asset-overhang-and-financing-climate-change-technology
  
• take-social-benefits
  
• personalised-pricing-and-distribution-strategies
  
• crypto-and-regulation-i-cant-live-you-i-cant-live-without-you
  

Problems in statistics world

 Kaiser Fung follows up on an Andrew Gelman article on quite misleading claims in a paper.

Read both articles both  are short but to the point. Both show the true value of blogs.

Poll roundup

 Kevin Bonham gives us his first poll round-up since the election.

As always both essential and interesting reading

The Rail Union has NO case

 Here in NSW or should I say Sydanee we have been experiencing  rail strikes. the union claims it is mainly about safety. 

now when a government commissions trains one of the first things they make sure of is how safe they are. the NSW government did so in this case. All independent experts have said the inter-city trains ( trains that go form say Newcastle to Sydney) are perfectly safe. There have been NO accidents or even potential accidents overseas.

Thus we can only conclude the unions main issue is other than train safety. My guess is higher wages is the main issue but it is only a guess.

Either way public support is needed in an industrial dispute such as this and the unions are now losing this bigtime.

Ending pork barreling

 Australia's premier think tank ,the Grattan Institute, tells us how to end pork barreling.

One interesting by-product of this is both parties do this but all the research I have read shows it is ineffective in gaining votes!

Around the Traps 19/8/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Madelaine Taylor on historic-new-deal-puts-emissions-reduction-at-the-heart-of-australias-energy-sector
• Pasi Sahlberg on its-great-education-ministers-agree-the-teacher-shortage-is-a-problem-but-their-new-plan-ignores-the-root-causes
• Peter Martin on its-important-not-to-overreact-australias-top-economists-on-how-to-fix-high-inflation, why-unemployment-is-set-to-stay-below-5-for-years-to-come
• Ross Gittins on inflation-psychology-firms-charge-what-they-can-get-away-with, i-foresee-world-where-workers-gain-the-upper-hand
• Nick Gruen on vox-pop-journalism-as-a-system-of-domination-peter-dutton-edition
• renew economy on australias-carbon-budget-is-in-worse-shape-than-its-fiscal-budget-thanks-to-gas, spark-unveils-new-plans-for-giga-scale-wind-farm-and-big-battery, green-steel-technology-is-good-news-for-emissions-bad-news-for-australias-coal-exports, why-blackrock-chose-australia-to-make-its-largest-big-battery-play, how-a-great-big-tax-on-fossil-fuel-profits-could-fix-australias-energy-crisis, biggest-polluters-may-have-to-cut-emissions-by-6-pct-a-year-under-labor-plan
• croaking cassandra on an-expanding-empire
• Christopher Day and Rico Merkert on costs-of-sydneys-driverless-train-conversion-outweigh-the-benefits
• Anne Twomey on explainer-scott-morrison-was-sworn-in-to-several-portfolios-other-than-prime-minister-during-the-pandemic-how-can-this-be-done
• Heleen Dickinson on ndis-fraud-reports-reveal-the-schemes-weakest-points
• Michelle Ward et al on wildlife-recovery-spending-after-australias-last-megafires-was-13-times-less-than-the-2-7-billion-needed
• Asma Aziz and Iftekhar Ahmad on a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing
• Andy Marks on barilaro-report-fails-to-put-nsw-government-integrity-crisis-to-rest
• Greg Jericho on a-rise-in-wages-should-be-good-news-but-in-real-terms-this-is-historically-pitiful
• John Hawkins on australias-inflation-rate-is-about-to-go-monthly-be-careful-what-you-wish-for
• Luke Beck on parliament-must-act-to-ensure-australia-never-has-secret-ministers-again
• Institutional economics on inflation-indicators-for-fun
• Met Taylor and Katherine Haynes on no-not-again-a-third-straight-la-nina-is-likely-heres-how-you-and-your-family-can-prepare
• Bruce Robertson on why-government-must-break-eastern-australias-gas-cartel
• Institutional economics on inflation-indicators-for-fun

Northern America

• Ellen Ioannes on the-espionage-act-trump-documents-mar-a-lago
• noahopinion on macroeconomic-update-soft-landing-in-progress, barack-obama-was-a-successful-president, the-case-for-high-skilled-immigration
• Nate Silver on will-this-be-an-asterisk-election
• Jonathan Guyer on no-one-held-accountable-catastrophic-afghanistan-withdrawal-biden-white-house
• Unpopular Front on the-case-for-going-after-trump Thanks Brad
• Rebecca Leber on biden-inflation-reduction-act-climate-pollution-energy
• William Leonard on donald-trump-is-not-classified-records-boss
• Robert Katzberg on donald-trump-fifth-amendment-problem
• Alex Tabarrok on still-under-policed-and-over-imprisoned
• Real Climate on climate-impacts-of-the-ira
• Dennis Wamstead on searing-hot-july-highlights-solars-reliability
• Kruggers on why we don't have a carbon tax

Europe

• Mark Galeotti on ukraine-has-found-russia-s-achilles-heel-in-crimea
• Sam Knight on the-inadequate-answers-of-liz-truss-britains-likely-next-prime-minister
• Mainly Macro on why-our-new-prime-minister-is-ignoring-multiple-crises

Asia

• Greg Barton on one-year-into-taliban-control-afghans-face-poverty-and-repression-australia-cannot-turn-a-blind-eye
• Macro Polo econ on whos-paying-for-the-property-crisis Thanks Brad
• Ben Saul on explainer-the-complex-question-of-taiwanese-independence
• Cherry Hitkari on china-s-taiwan-policy-new-era
• Jade Guan on why-can-t-beijing-renounce-force-against-taiwan
• noahopinion on chinas-recession-and-how-itll-fight-it

Wonk

• Edward Holmes on the-covid-lab-leak-theory-is-dead-heres-how-we-know-the-virus-came-from-a-wuhan-market
• Vijah Misra on how-salman-rushdie-has-been-a-scapegoat-for-complex-historical-differences
• Tim Harford on we-need-a-bolder-approach-to-next-generation-vaccines
• the conversable economist on a-fertility-patterns-flip-flop, economics-is-the-social-science-of-love, academic-economists-vs-policy-economists
• Emma Frans on did-swedens-controversial-covid-strategy-pay-off-in-many-ways-it-did-but-it-let-the-elderly-down
• Ryan Heneghan on even-a-limited-nuclear-war-would-starve-millions-of-people-new-study-reveals
• noahopinion on contemplating-a-world-of-linear-growth
• skeptical science on the deadly connections between climate change and migration
• the intrinsic perspective on why-i-am-not-an-effective-altruist Thanks Nick
• Freddie De Boer on effective-altruism-has-a-novelty-problem Thanks Nick
• Uneasy Money on robert-lucas-and-real-business-cycle-theory

General

• copolla comment on the-ones-who-stay-in-omelas
• Sarah Webb on one-of-the-brightest-stars-in-the-sky-is-evolving-and-dying-before-our-eyes

Climate

• Moyhu on giss-july-global-temperature-down-by-june
• Richard Erskine on if-we-cant-stop-flying-can-we-at-least-stop-lying-to-ourselves
• noahopinion on solar-is-happening-nuclear-is-mostly-not
• skeptical science on mitigation of climate change

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• recursive-plagiarism
  
• coffee-study-lower-dying-risk
  
• some-concerns-about-the-recent-chetty-et-al-study-on-social-networks-and-economic-inequality-and-what-to-do-next
  
• could-referendums-defuse-political-polarization
  
• statistics-a-life-cycle-view
  
• preregistered-vs-adaptable-bayesian-workflow-and-who-should-do-the-work
  
• krueger-uber-100000-update
  
• statschat on briefly

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• women-and-our-economics-problem
  
• whose-brain-is-it
  
• what-is-the-free-market
  

Vox Wonk

• striking-bargain-narrative-identification-wage-bargaining-shocks
  
• it-takes-village-create-idea-knowledge-spillovers-and-productivity-over-past-hundred
  
• gender-differences-stem-persistence-after-graduation
  
• simple-economics-external-shock-crowdsourced-bug-bounty-platform
  
• stablecoin-paradox
  
• role-data-creating-market-power
  
• methane-emissions-not-just-some-other-guy
  
• how-firms-reduce-wage-inequality
  
• rise-and-fall-socioeconomic-status-gradients-height-around-world
  
• how-group-based-incentives-increase-worker-performance
  
• e-money-tokens-tokenised-money-market-shares-and-tokenised-bank-deposits
  
• tight-euro-area-labour-markets-after-covid-19-role-labour-market-mismatch
  
• expiration-ban-stock-repurchases
  

Wages Breakout part 36

 The wage price index was released yesterday. Unemployment is 3.5% which is essentially full employment so wages are rising strongly right. WRONG! Badly wrong. It was a pathetic figure given the state of the labour market. See Greg Jericho.

Why so?  We have had structural problems in the labour market since it was made much more flexible by Keating and then more -de-regulated by Gillard. It is ironic Howard actually made it more regulated in his haste to weaken labour market power.

This is the essence of the problem now which it appears Phillip Lowe simply does not understand. If you weaken the trade union movement and a lot less people are trade union members then who is going to get the wage rises people should have???

People such as Steve Kates and Judith Sloan have been warning about a wages break out since Russ won the election. when the Liberals won 6 years later Eric Abetz ( the IR minister was also warning about a wages break out.

It hasn't come and will not come. 

Problems with transmission lines?

 In a renewable world we need a lot more transmission lines.

However it is not all plain sailing.

The Morrison fiasco

 Which one you ask?  Being a minister as well as Prime minister so in a number of portfolios there were two ministers. Here is Michelle Grattan

No-one knew. It was not published in the government gazette. We had the absurd theoretical position that two ministers of the same portfolio could come to different policy positions. what would the public servants do.  Anne Twomey gives us some information on the law.

In the end it merely shows how chaotic the last government was, how much of a control freak Morrison was and how little power the governor general has.

The covid lab theory is dead

 READ all about it.

Around the Traps 12/8/22

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andrew King on a-wet-spring-what-is-a-negative-indian-ocean-dipole-and-why-does-it-mean-more-rain-for-australias-east
• Ross Gittins on fixing-inflation-isnt-hard-returning-to-healthy-growth-is, weve-got-more-than-weve-ever-had-but-are-we-better-off
• renew economy on wind-energy-delivers-one-third-of-electricity-of-australias-main-grid-for-first-time, carbon-tax-on-wheels-the-overwhelming-case-for-australia-to-go-electric, coal-failures-cripple-energyaustralia-but-future-hope-lies-in-storage-projects, magpies-warble-spring-stirs-as-wind-and-solar-deliver-one-quarter-of-grid-demand, aemo-market-crisis-report-highlights-big-constraints-on-snowy-2-0-storage, genex-power-buys-massive-2gw-battery-storage-plus-solar-project-in-queensland
• AJ Brown on tax-office-whistleblowing-saga-points-to-reforms-needed-in-three-vital-areas
• Erik Eklund on uranium-prices-are-soaring-and-australias-hoary-old-nuclear-debate-is-back-in-the-headlines-heres-what-it-all-means
• Penelope Jones et al on unacceptable-costs-savanna-burning-under-australias-carbon-credit-scheme-is-harming-human-health
• Andy Marks on how-fast-politics-has-left-the-nsw-government-staring-into-the-electoral-abyss
• Rod Sims on australias-news-media-bargaining-code-led-the-world-its-time-to-finish-what-we-started
• Larissa Davies and Jim Watterson on australias-teacher-shortage-wont-be-solved-until-we-treat-teaching-as-a-profession-not-a-trade
• John Quiggin on whos-holding-back-electric-cars-in-australia

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on nfp-growth-of-over-500k-in-historical-perspective
• David Smith on the-january-6-hearings-have-been-spectacular-tv-but-will-they-have-any-consequences-for-trump
• Jim Newell on inflation-reduction-act-democrats-manchin-sinema-senate, trump-mar-a-lago-fbi-raid-2024-primary-political-effects
• Nate Silver on its-hard-to-win-a-senate-race-when-youve-never-won-an-election-before
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-abortion-dobbs-roe-wade-unpopular-polls-kansas
• noanopinion on the-inflation-reduction-act-bidenomics-2.0
• Tyler Cowen on the-tax-provisions-of-the-new-climate-and-taxes-bill
• Rodney Tiffen on as-the-fbi-raids-mar-a-lago-donald-trump-reaches-for-unconvincing-historical-parallels
• Ian Millhiser on donald-trump-mar-a-lago-fbi-raid, donald-trump-justice-department-fbi-search-warrant-disclosure-merrick-garland
• Zack Beauchamp on mar-a-lago-raid-trump-florida-desantis-republicans-regime
• Lawyers guns money on hungary-is-the-denmark-of-the-american-right-what-does-that-mean Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on monthly-cpi-inflation-at-zero
• Calculated Order on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-05
• Institutional Economics on the-us-ngdp-gap-and-nber-recessions
• the conversable economist on distressed-places-how-to-encourage-jobs
• Jeremy Stahl on merrick-garland-warrant-gop-mar-a-lago-raid-trumpnew 
• deal democrat on july-consumer-inflation-a-tale-of-two-disparate-trends

Europe

• Mainly Macro on why-does-bank-of-england-appear-to-be-ignoring-its-mandate, labour-shares-decoupling-real-wages-and-inequality
• Anne Applebaum on ukraine-volunteer-army-russia-odesa

Asia

• Khang Vu on koreas-hidden-risk-kill-chain
• Robert Whithol on development-finance-asia-memoir
• Barkes on pelosis-visit-to-taiwan
• Amy Maguire on amid-death-and-destruction-the-latest-conflict-in-gaza-highlights-the-depths-of-its-humanitarian-crisis
• David Brewster on sri-lanka-after-revolution-what-happened-what-next
• Tony Walker on from-future-lawyer-to-betrothed-to-a-taliban-fighter-august-in-kabul-shows-how-life-changed-overnight-for-so-many-in-afghanistan
• John Culver on when-serious-careful-us-management-china-taiwan-policies-isnt
• Andrea Wong on icc-pushes-probe-philippines-drug-war
• Ian Johnson on hong-kong-from-the-inside-ian-johnson

Wonk

• Lydia Khalil on rise-of-the-extreme-right
• Tim Harford on how-to-really-change-someones-mind
• noahopinion on mexico-a-development-puzzle, economic-misconceptions-of-the-crypto-world
• the conversable economist on when-civilizations-collide-economists-and-politicians, summer-2022-journal-of-economic-perspectives-available-online, thoughts-on-globotics-and-slobilization
• the grumpy economist on the-fiscal-theory-of-inflation
• Tyler Cowen on a-better-way-to-think-about-wage-pressures-than-the-phillips-curve, one-reason-why-a-global-carbon-tax-is-impossible
• Gabriela Bernal on russia-north-korea-never-waste-good-crisis
• Stochastic Trent on do-mining-economies-save-too-little

General

• Deborah Lupton on ivermectin-blood-washing-ozone-how-long-covid-survivors-are-being-sold-the-next-round-of-miracle-cures
• Janelle Johnstone on with-the-strokes-of-a-guitar-solo-joni-mitchell-showed-us-how-our-female-music-elders-are-super-punks
• Wasim Raja and Pascal Elahi on a-new-australian-supercomputer-has-already-delivered-a-stunning-supernova-remnant-pic
• Tim Johnson on what-created-the-continents-new-evidence-points-to-giant-asteroids

Climate

• Open Mind on a-high-schoolers-take-on-the-climate-crisis
• Heather Handley on a-volcano-is-erupting-again-in-iceland-is-climate-change-causing-more-eruptions
• Moyhu on july-global-surface-templs-down-0054-from-june
• and Then Theres Physics on considering-catastrophe
• Damian Carrington on east-antarctic-ice-sheet-in-our-hands-climate-action
• noahopinion on why-renewable-subsidies-are-better-than-carbon-taxes
• Andrew King et al on beyond-net-zero-we-should-if-we-can-cool-the-planet-back-to-pre-industrial-levels

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• from-chatbots-and-understanding-to-appliance-repair-and-statistical-practice
  
• i-know-it-might-sound-strange-but-i-believe-youll-be-coming-back-before-too-long
  
• at-last-incontrovertible-evidence-that-people-over-40-are-older-on-average-than-people-under-40
  
• just-show-me-the-data-baseball-edition
  
• weak-separation-in-mixture-models-and-implications-for-principal-stratification
  
• bayesian-inference-continues-to-completely-solve-the-multiple-comparisons-problem
  
• bets-as-forecasts-bets-as-probability-assessment-difficulty-of-using-bets-in-this-way
  
• statschat on briefly
• Kaiser Fung on there-are-no-objective-data , andrew-screaming-about-professional-fouls

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on instrumental-variables-in-practical-application

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• fitting-economics-into-a-theory-of-justice
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• temperature-shocks-and-monetary-policy-us
  
• executive-compensation-tied-esg-performance
  
• top-income-inequality-and-tax-policy
  
• tracking-us-inequality-real-time
  
• central-bank-communication-times-high-inflation
  
• top-income-inequality-and-tax-policy
  
• high-oil-prices-and-missing-russian-and-shale-oil-supply
  
• columns/shifting-composition-startup-cohorts-can-boost-macroeconomic-performance
  
• columns/structural-change-within-versus-across-firms-evidence-us
  

Taiwan and Hong Kong

 The Chinese leadership is Trumpian in their stupidity. Noah Smith has written about this extensively but a few examples.

The 'wolf warrior' diplomacy has failed badly. morons like trump might think might is right is a successful stagy but few others do. It had led more countries to seek help from China than embracing them.  The belt and road imitative is not seen as something to boost a country's economy but as a way for the Chinese to own assets that cannot be paid for anymore.

The Chinese leadership are now threatening Taiwan. 

Firstly this would be very costly in economic terms to China. It is enmeshed in the world economy much more than Russia. Sanctions would hurt them a lot more. It has a large and growing middle class ( which is why companies have been trying to get into China.) What happens when their standard of living drastically falls?

Secondly it is very hard to invade a country and very costly in resources and people. The Taiwanese do not want to be part of China. They would fight fiercely to protect their freedom. It would be Ukraine writ large.

Thirdly when China makes noises about 'protecting' Taiwan and one country two systems people wil merely look at Hong Kong. China lied and broke their word. they then arrested and jailed people on dubious charges.

The major problem China has is they have woeful leadership and do not realise it. Personally the Chinese will have to concentrate on their economic troubles rather than anything else. 

The Trump 'raid'

 I only studied introduction to law at University so do not expect any exciting legal issues in this piece.

The FBI 'raided' Trump's house in Florida. The FBI had a search warrant. Why did they use this instead of a subpoena? I suspect because they thought Trump was lying and he had important documents he was hiding. They would have had to convince a Judge of this sso it would not be based on a gut feeling for example.

We only knew of the 'raid' when Trump told us of it. There was no leak. Trump knew before Biden. At no time has trump shown us publicly the inventory of what the FBI has taken.

This is not the first time the FBI and Justice Department has been involved in prosecuting people under this act.

One Christopher Wray prosecuted Sandy Berger, a democrat no really.

David Petraeus was also prosecuted.

What we see here is that no-one is above the law. We do know he stole very sensitive national security documents so I am betting the FBI is after them BUT we do not know.

the NSW government is a joke

 Surely we are looking at a change of government in March when we have the NSW election.

The government is fighting among themselves, a sure sign they have been in too long. The decision to have trade officers in various countries when the NSW budget needs serious repair was simply breath taking and a total waste of money.

The Premier now looks indecisive and out of his depth. you have one minister so out of touch he says he will take the treasurer's job if he becomes deputy leader. The same person who lacked the guts to contest the federal seat of Parramatta. You have another accused of leaking against the Premier. You have another forced to resign because things occurred that he said that didn't occur.

THEN you have a whole bunch of them who thought that it was okay if Barilaro got the trade role in New York. Salary of over $400k plus expense account of $100k. No-one thought of this being viewd as a job for the boys. Then we find out the person who became the Agent General in the UK wanted to double the salary as well as taking care of a number of expenses such as removals, school education etc. Then when the minister goes to London to attempt to get the F1 to Sydney he has nothing to do with him!

All this simply heightens my argument of voting against any government after two terms.

I should two things.

Barilaro has always been a poor politician. Remember his party lost two SAFE seats last election.

Politicians can make good diplomats. The trade position was not about diplomacy but about getting business for NSW. Barilaro has bugger all skills or background for the job.

Carbon tax on wheels

A great article from renew economy about changing fuel economy standards.

As Mr Spock would say very interesting

Cold Chisel

 I was never a great fan of Cold Chisel mainly because I did not like Jimmy Barnes but they could produce some great rockers such as this one Rising Sun.  Enjoy

Around the Traps 5/8/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Dennis Muller on albanese-wants-to-change-the-way-politics-is-done-this-means-the-way-politics-is-reported-will-have-to-change-too
• Anne Twomey on creating-a-constitutional-voice-the-words-that-could-change-australia
• Neal Hughes on after-floods-will-come-droughts-again-better-indicators-will-help-us-respond
• Umair Ghori on hey-minister-leave-that-gas-trigger-alone-it-may-fire-up-a-fight-with-foreign-investors
• Marie-Claire Seeley on long-covid-should-make-us-rethink-disability-and-the-way-we-offer-support-to-those-with-invisible-conditions
• Paul Kildea on what-can-history-teach-us-to-ensure-a-successful-referendum-for-a-first-nations-voice-to-parliament
• Marianne Hanson on can-we-please-have-real-debate-nuclear-submarines
• Ross Gittins on were-struggling-with-inflation-because-we-misread-the-pandemic
• renew economy on two-cheers-for-the-tightening-of-the-safeguard-mechanism, big-spinning-machines-remove-constraints-on-wind-and-solar, aemo-urges-accelerated-shift-to-renewables-amid-coal-failures-and-soaring-fossil-fuel-costs, held-to-ransom-damning-report-shows-gas-cartel-throwing-away-social-licence, what-will-a-storage-target-cost-electricity-consumers, there-is-no-shortage-of-gas-or-fossil-fuel-cartels-in-australia, solar-is-the-cheapest-power-a-lightbulb-moment-showed-we-can-cut-costs-even-further, how-australia-created-its-own-gas-price-mess
• Vu Lam on can-australia-recapture-the-spirit-of-middle-power-diplomacy
• croaking cassandra on reviewing-covid-monetary-policy-part-1, reviewing-covid-monetary-policy-part-2, of-primary-interest-to-former-reserve-bank-staff
• Christopher Davey on the-chemical-imbalance-theory-of-depression-is-dead-but-that-doesnt-mean-antidepressants-dont-work
• Samantha Hepburn on the-gas-trigger-wont-be-enough-to-stop-our-energy-crisis-escalating-we-need-a-domestic-reservation-policy
• Peter Martin on why-does-the-rba-keep-hiking-interest-rates-its-scared-it-cant-contain-inflation
• Ross Gittins on a-damaged-environment-leads-to-an-unlivable-economy
• Elise Klein on has-labor-learnt-from-the-failure-of-the-cashless-debit-card
• Ben Phillips on inflation-isnt-the-6-1-they-say-it-is-for-many-of-us-it-is-much-lower
• Richard Kingsford on its-official-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-hasnt-met-its-promise-to-our-precious-rivers-so-where-to-now
• Kate Crowley on the-greens-have-backed-labors-43-target-but-dont-think-australias-climate-wars-are-over
• Greg Jericho on australias-economy-is-set-to-grow-slower-than-it-ever-has-outside-of-recession-this-is-bad-news-for-our-standard-of-living
• Phillip Laird on more-than-ever-its-time-to-upgrade-the-sydney-melbourne-railway
• Rachel Wilson et al on this-is-like-banging-our-heads-against-the-wall-why-a-move-to-outsource-lesson-planning-has-nsw-teachers-hopping-mad

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on in-these-times-advance-to-3rd-gdp-growth-rates
• Dahlia Lithick and Mark Stern on alito-rome-religious-liberty-foreign-leaders-secularism
• noahopinion on the-us-education-system-gets-decent-value-for-money, industrial-policy-starts-with-semiconductors, could-we-sanction-china-if-we-had-to
• new deal democrat on long-leading-indicators-embedded-in-q2-gdp-suggest-a-recession-is-near-at-hand
• the conversable economist on the-invention-of-peaches-and-pimentos
• the grumpy economist on inflation-explainer
• Brad De Long on biden-chips-ira-climate-legislation
• Very Serious on the-big-question-about-the-inflation Thanks Brad
• slow boring on how-the-green-new-deal-became-the-inflation-reduction-act thanks Brad
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-roe-wade-substantive-due-process-samuel-alito
• Institutional Economics on recession-is-as-recession-does
• Rebecca Leber on heat-wave-ac-energy-bill-utilities
• Rani Molla on kansas-abortion-referendum-primary-turnout-charts
• Dylan Mathews on shark-attack-1916-woodrow-wilson-political-science-achen-bartels-fowler-hall
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-gop-control-august-gop-primary-2022
• Jeremy Stahl on donald-trump-2024-presidency-rnc-desantis

Europe

• Grant Wyeth on water-matters-fate-baltic-ferries-tell-global-order
• Tory Lysik on the-attack-on-a-prison-holding-ukraine-pows-explained-russia
• stumbling and mumbling on energy-bills-rentiers-vs-entrepreneurs
• Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Stephen Tian on russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business Thanks Brad
• global inequality on on-import-substitution-fukuyama-eternal Thanks Brad
• Ian Hill on russia-and-turkey-sometimes-strongmen-need-get-along
• Mainly Macro on brexit-supporters-constantly-deny-that-any-problems-of-brexit-have-anything-to-do-with-brexit
• Unpopular Front on orban-the-toe Thanks Brad
• Miriam Ronzoni on the-upcoming-elections-in-italy

Asia

• Mercedes Page on unpacking-china-s-global-development-initiative
• Ferdouse Asefi on afghanistan-a-year-after-the-taliban-occupation-an-ongoing-war-on-human-rights
• Adam Lockyer on will-pelosi-s-trip-trigger-next-taiwan-crisis
• Tony Walker on pelosis-visit-to-taiwan-raises-temperatures-but-its-in-everyones-interest-to-cool-them-down-again

Wonk

• Tim Harford on how-to-save-more-lives-and-avoid-a-privacy-apocalypse
• Uneasy Money on lucas-and-sargent-on-optimization-and-equilibrium-in-macroeconomics
• Ingrid Robeyn on paying-lipservice-ticking-boxes-and-doing-what-it-takes
• noahopinion on the-war-economy-sizing-up-the-new-axis
• the warning on do-we-want-democracy-too Thanks Brad
• Haroro Ingram et al on who-was-ayman-al-zawahri-where-does-his-death-leave-al-qaida-and-what-does-it-say-about-us-counterterrorism
• Syed Haider on killing-al-qaeda-chief-leaves-endless-questions
• the conversable economist on when-civilizations-collide-economists-and-politicians
• Haroro Ingram et al on who-was-ayman-al-zawahri-where-does-his-death-leave-al-qaida-and-what-does-it-say-about-us-counterterrorism
• David Kenner on yemen-power-ambition-humanitarian-catastrophe
• Fintan O'Toole on the-irish-lesson
• Coppolla comment on where-has-all-money-gone
• Kruggers on russia-ukraine-war-embargo-gas Thanks Nick

General

• Christopher Risely and Tessa Vernstrom on we-found-some-strange-radio-sources-in-a-distant-galaxy-cluster-theyre-making-us-rethink-what-we-thought-we-knew
• Michael Brown on is-the-james-webb-space-telescope-finding-the-furthest-oldest-youngest-or-first-galaxies-an-astronomer-explains

Climate

• Open Mind on not-even-wrong, french-heat
• and Then Theres Physics on fail-better
• moyhu on claim-new-bombshell-report
• Laura Borreguerro et al on troubling-new-research-shows-warm-waters-rushing-towards-the-worlds-biggest-ice-sheet-in-antarctica
• Skeptical Science on how likely would britains heatwave be without climate change
• Davis Schissell on carbon-captures-methane-problem-new-report-shows-technology-doesnt-live-hype

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• if-the-outcome-is-that-rare-then-theres-nothing-much-can-be-learned-from-pure-statistics
  
• this-journal-is-commissioning-a-sequel-to-one-of-my-smash-hits-how-much-will-they-pay-me-for-it-you-can-share-negotiation-strategies-in-the-comments-section
  
• heres-a-little-problem-to-test-your-probability-intuitions
  
• can-some-major-media-outlet-please-give-david-weakliem-a-regular-column-as-soon-as-possible
  
• solution-to-that-little-problem-to-test-your-probability-intuitions-and-why-i-think-its-poorly-stated
  
• still-more-on-the-heckman-curve
  
• does-having-kids-really-protect-you-from-serious-covid%e2%80%9119-symptoms
  
• the-scandal-isnt-whats-illegal-the-scandal-is-whats-legal-application-of-kinsleys-rule-to-science
  
• Kaiser Fung on data-flows-behind-secure-debit-cards

Econometrics

• Marc Bellamare on why not insure prices

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• noahopinion on underrated-sci-fi-and-fantasy-books

Vox Wonk

• macroeconomic-costs-conflict-impact-gdp-and-refugee-flows
  
• transatlantic-economy-policy-responses-pandemic-and-road-recovery
  
• russia-ukraine-war-european-financial-integration-and-crises
  
• role-venture-capital-and-governments-clean-energy
  
• mainstream-media-and-electoral-outcomes
  
• deciphering-monetary-policy-shocks
  
• adapting-flood-risk-evidence-global-cities
  
• executive-compensation-tied-esg-performance
  
• temperature-shocks-and-monetary-policy-us
  
• executive-compensation-tied-esg-performance
  
• tracking-us-inequality-real-time
  
• central-bank-communication-times-high-inflation
  
• top-income-inequality-and-tax-policy
  
• tracking-us-inequality-real-time
  
• central-bank-communication-times-high-inflation
  

Exciting news on solar power

 READ all about it.

We have plenty of gas

 There is talk of a gas shortage of gas in Australia. Not TRUE.

The goose who essentially created this mess was Marn Ferguason. The champion of the ALP  member who  never ever had to worry about a pre-selection ballot told all and sundry way back when Australia did not need a reservation policy. I wonder where he is now

I am not happy with Kia

 We bought a Kia Cerato some 7 years ago. Thus far we were happy with the car.

About a month ago we had the last 'capped price' service done. ( It turns out it isn't capped at all. you do pay more if something needs to be done like say the brakes!)

Imagine my surprise when we put the car in to the garage to find out what the noise around the engine was. metal chunks were found in the oil and i am told the car needs a new engine. 

Surely this is the problem of the car . So a decision has to be made as well as a stern letter writtern to Kia about this.

Grrrr