Ross Gittins is on the money

 Ross Gittins writes a damned good column today.

He makes the point inflation is because of supply factors so central banks traditionally fight inflation because of demand management.  

We have inflation problems because of energy prices surging courtesy of Russia invading Ukraine, food and vegetables prices rising because of the floods and supply constraints primarily because of what is occurring in china.  Clearly two of these factors are transitory.

Around the Traps 29/6/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Joshua Black on even-in-the-political-afterlife-morrison-departs-from-the-norm
• Michelle Grattan on officials-resisted-morrison-governments-attempt-to-have-them-amplify-election-day-boat-arrival
• Ann Foerster et al on 4-lessons-for-the-albanese-government-in-making-its-climate-targets-law-we-cant-afford-to-get-this-wrong
• Kevin Bonhan on federal-election-2022-pollster-performance-review
• the tally room on what made up labour's election winning strategy 
• renew economy on bowen-frees-arena-from-taylors-fossil-fuel-mandate-puts-focus-back-on-renewables, good-vibe-new-data-shows-wind-farm-complaints-tumbled-in-2021, look-no-trackers-stanford-engineers-say-pyramid-shaped-lens-can-capture-more-solar, aemo-urges-accelerated-shift-to-renewables-amid-coal-failures-and-soaring-fossil-fuel-costs, opportunity-cost-the-role-played-by-snowys-hydro-plants-in-electricity-price-spike
• Tayanah O'Donnell on building-too-close-to-the-water-its-ridiculous-talk-of-buyouts-after-floods-shows-need-to-get-serious-about-climate-adaptation
• Frank Bongornio on do-we-care-enough-about-covid
• Institutional economics on the-neutral-real-interest-rate-doomloop, the-canadian-australian-business-sector-productivity-gap-a-sectoral-analysis
• Peter Martin on labor-is-winding-back-reforms-meant-to-hold-super-funds-accountable-to-their-members
• Croaking Cassandra on a-voice-from-the-past, a-public-inquiry-isnt-necessary, did-it-make-a-difference
• Ross Gittins on inflation-small-problem-so-dont-hit-sledgehammer
• Andrew Stewart on killing-off-the-building-watchdog-may-not-be-the-win-unionists-want
• Michael Toole and Brendan Crabb on australias-response-to-covid-in-the-first-2-years-was-one-of-the-best-in-the-world-why-do-we-rank-so-poorly-now
• John Quiggin on labor-has-introduced-its-controversial-climate-bill-to-parliament-heres-how-to-give-it-real-teeth
• John Quiggin and Flavio Menezes on inflation-is-being-amplified-by-firms-with-market-power
• John Hawkins on inflation-hasnt-been-higher-for-32-years-what-now
• Greg Jericho on the-rba-is-increasing-interest-rates-to-counter-inflation-but-it-will-also-slow-wages-growth
• Hal Swerissen on 4-in-10-nursing-homes-have-a-covid-outbreak-and-the-death-rate-is-high-whats-going-wrong
• Saul Eslake on the-chalmers-graphs-7-75-inflation-plunging-real-wages-weak-growth
• James Curran on australia-china-relations-understanding-how-we-arrived-point

Northern America

• Jeremy Stahl on steve-bannon-guilty-no-surprise-there
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-gavin-newsom-sb-8-abortion-guns-california-assault-rifle-law
• Richard Hasen on collins-manchin-election-bill-democrats-should-grab
• the message box on why-the-16-hearings-have-damaged-trump Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on why-doesnt-the-fed-just-hike-200bp-all-at-once
• new deal democrat on after-the-civil-war-reconstruction
• Nathaniel Rackich on why-democrats-midterm-chances-dont-hinge-on-bidens-approval-rating
• policy tensor on the-yield-curve-is-predicting-much-worse-than-a-recessions thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on immigrants-assimilating-then-and-now
• renew economy on three-reasons-why-us-coal-power-is-disappearing-and-a-supreme-court-ruling-wont-save-it
• James Hamilton on is-this-a-recession
• Nick Gruen on should-liz-cheney-be-your-hero

Europe

• Ben Wellings on boris-johnson-says-his-time-as-uk-pm-was-mission-largely-accomplished-how-does-that-actually-stack-up
• John Quiggin on the-kosovo-precedent
• Timothy Snyder on why Russia is losing ( twitter ) thanks Tyler ,the-state-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war
• stumbling and mumbling on the-futility-of-economic-policy-debate
• Mainly Macro on sunak-vs-truss-battle-between-two-failed-economic-policies
• Felix Salmon on russia-sanctions-economic-impact
• Menzie Chinn on the-fiscal-and-fx-crises-of-the-russian-state-in-war
• Mathew Sussex on are-vladimir-putins-nuclear-threats-a-bluff-in-a-word-probably
• Andrew Freedman on global-warming-worsened-uk-heat-wave

Asia

• Michael Clarke on dizzy-success-xi-consolidates-repression-xinjiang
• noahopinion on pakistan-is-in-big-trouble
• Thilak Mallawaarachchi on how-did-sri-lanka-run-out-of-money-5-graphs-that-explain-its-economic-crisis
• Menzie Chinn on china-outlook-from-the-weo
• Shivanghi Seth on smoke-screen-normalcy-kashmir
• Stephen Roach on china-hit-hard-by-slowing-world-trade Thanks Brad

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on will-commodity-prices-continue-to-sustain-inflation
• Divyanshu Jindal on element-doubt-rare-earths-targeted-disinfo-campaign
• Stephen Grenville on capital-flows-emerging-economies
• Barkes on the-grain-deal
• the conversable economist on some-economics-of-codetermination, is-a-recession-defined-as-two-negative-quarters
• the UnPopulist on the-triple-justification-for-liberalism Thanks Brad
• Eyes on the right on  thinking-about-fascismpart-1 , thinking-about-fascismpart-2Thanks Brad
• The Bellows on the-end-of-the-conservative-age Thanks Brad
• Phillips O'Brien on great-power-country-economy-technology-military
• Tyler Cowen on in-praise-of-regulatory-arbitrage
• coppolla comment on where-has-all-money-gone

General

• Tim Harford on your-phones-notification-settings-and-the-meaning-of-life
• noahopinion on four-things-i-got-wrong-since-i-started-this-blog

Climate

• Open Mind on extra-ordinary-heat-wave
• Rabett run on more-hydrogen-less-methane-about-same-ho
• Norman Duke on climate-change-killed-40-million-australian-mangroves-in-2015-heres-why-theyll-probably-never-grow-back
• and Then Theres Physics on revisiting-causality-using-stochastics
• the conversable economist on the-no-burn-forest-policy-origins-and-consequences

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• basboll-gets-gpt-3-to-write-an-entire-five-paragraph-essay-complete-with-fake-references
  
• recently-in-the-sister-blog-13
  
• details-of-implementation-of-machine-learning-algorithms
  
• after-work-socializing-alcohol-car-crashes
  
• how-music-works-by-david-byrne-and-sweet-anticipation-by-david-huron
  
• what-can-100000-get-you-nowadays-discussion-of-the-market-for-papers-in-economics
  
• discussion-on-identifiability-and-bayesian-inference
  
• statschat on briefly, attendance-figures, counting-bots-better
• Kaiser Fung on self-checkout-and-fast-passes

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• social-media-and-mental-health
  
• impact-foreign-sanctions-firm-performance-russia
  
• public-versus-secret-voting-committees
  
• winter-coming-energy-policy-towards-russia
  
• crime-effect-refugees
  
• measuring-ukraine-s-private-consumption-during-war
  
• ruble-payments-shielding-ruble-financial-sanctions
  
• long-run-labour-market-effects-canada-us-free-trade-agreement
  
• parsing-disagreement-about-future-short-term-interest-rates
  
• neighbourhoods-won-t-be-improved-banning-unemployed
  
• large-firms-react-more-strongly-macro-shocks-and-it-matters
  
• variability-impacts-covid-19-student-achievement
  
• river-pollution-combating-cross-border-externalities
  

Should we wear masks?

 In Around the Traps is this really interesting article.

The sanctions on Russia are working

 Felix Salmon at Axios has a ripper of an article on how the sanctions are hurting Russia.

Well worth a read particularly the link

Update:

Menzie Chinn

Timothy Snyder ( well sort of)

Rookie Blue

 Between my youngest son getting covid (and food poisoning) and somehow me not getting it at all it has been a strange week.. 

Now I learn David Warner has died. A great actor. Why are british actors ( and series) so much better than yank ones?

I got onto rookie blue by a complete fluke. I saw it advertised on a Channel 7 program I had taped. Missy Peregram is one of the actresses in the series and I knew her from FBI. She is much younger, quite attractive and thinner in this series and her character allows her to do more than in FBI.

It is a canadian police series and it is a good one. The characters are okay with a caveat. I saw plenty of people I had seen on Murdoch Mysteries as well.

If you want to see it for FREE then register on 7plus. If you do not like the first episode then you won't like the series. There are only 5 seasons and most seasons are short except for the last.

The only caveat is the relationships of the characters. They switch partners so often you get dizzy. One female cavorts around with men and then 'discovers' she is a lesbian! Yes it was embarrassing and it must be a north american disease!

I recommend the series however. It is good fun.

Federal election poll performance review

 At last we now have Kevin Bonham to put his eye over the pollsters performance at the last election.

Around the Traps 22/7/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kate Griffiths et al on heres-a-simple-way-to-stop-governments-giving-jobs-to-mates
• Holly Seale on mask-mandates-will-we-only-act-on-public-health-advice-if-someone-makes-us
• renew economy on eureka-moment-as-australian-researchers-make-hydrogen-storage-breakthrough, here-comes-the-sun-did-rooftop-solar-save-the-day-in-queensland, graph-of-the-day-wind-output-surges-to-australian-record-of-more-than-7000mw, nothing-can-beat-it-the-rise-and-rise-of-solar-and-battery-storage, aemo-says-firmed-wind-and-solar-cheapest-reliable-energy-option-by-country-mile, why-a-capacity-mechanism-will-require-revived-renewable-energy-target
• Adam Simpson on theres-a-smart-way-to-push-labor-harder-on-emissions-cuts-without-reigniting-the-climate-wars
• Emma Johnston on this-is-australias-most-important-report-on-the-environments-deteriorating-health-we-present-its-grim-findings
• Hugh Piper on australia-s-new-government-seizes-international-bully-pulpit
• Stephen Hickson on inflation-is-2022s-boogeyman-how-can-we-address-rising-living-costs-while-helping-bring-it-down
• Rebecca Pearse on 3-lessons-from-australias-climate-wars-and-how-we-can-finally-achieve-better-climate-policy
• Peter Martin on wellbeing-its-why-labors-first-budget-will-have-more-rigour-than-any-before-it
• Adrian Esterman on covid-hospitalisations-and-deaths-are-rising-faster-than-cases-but-that-doesnt-mean-more-severe-disease
• Laura Schujers and Thomas Newsome on bad-and-getting-worse-labor-promises-law-reform-for-australias-environment-heres-what-you-need-to-know
• Institutional Economics on the-review-of-the-rba-everything-is-on-the-table-and-thats-good
• Greg Jericho on wages-growth-should-be-skyrocketing-on-the-back-of-australias-low-unemployment-is-the-system-broken
• Stephen Bartos on election-promises-should-be-costed-before-polling-day-otherwise-its-too-late
• Thea Van Der Mortel on masks-are-strongly-suggested-by-health-authorities-as-the-winter-covid-wave-hits-heres-how-effective-they-are
• Brendan Shannon on ambulance-ramping-is-a-signal-the-health-system-is-floundering-solutions-need-to-extend-beyond-eds
• The pollbludger on the-polls-and-the-sum-of-the-parts

Northern America

• The Racket on an-fdr-size-hole Thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on 50-years-of-us-environmental-policy, learning-loss-during-the-pandemic
• noahopinion on the-wreck-of-bidenomics
• Ben Jacobs on january-6-committee-trump-liz-cheney
• Eric Kramer on the-uses-and-limits-of-bipartisanship
• Allie Volpe on birth-control-roe-v-wade-america
• Robert Kuttner on free-markets-besieged-citizens
• Fabio Bertoni on justice-neil-gorsuchs-radical-reinterpretation-of-the-first-amendment
• Uneasy Money on supply shocks and our summer of inflation discontent
• new deal democrat on inflation-should-the-fed-continue-to-raise-rates-and-whether-it-is-behind-the-curve
• Laura Bronner and Amelia Thomson-Deveaux on want-to-know-where-the-supreme-court-goes-next-look-at-alitos-and-thomass-dissents
• Tyler Cowen on some-reasons-why-the-u-s-dollar-is-strong
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-us-q2-gdp-announcement-will-not-mean-recession
• Nicole Narea on attorney-general-races-2022-georgia-texas-michigan
• Li Zhou on joe-biden-bad-polls-approval-rating-economy-inflation
• Laura Miller on liz-cheney-not-mad-disappointed

Europe

• Unheard on is-russia-winning-the-war Thanks Nick 
• Benjamin Jones on deconstructing-the-cult-of-winston-churchill-racism-deification-and-nostalgia-for-empire
• Ian Hill on winter-coming-staying-course-ukraine
• Neel Dhanesha and Benji Jones on europe-uk-heat-wave-roads-trains-climate-change
• Jen Kirby on uk-conservatives-rishi-sunak-liz-truss
• Tom McTague on uk-europe-heatwave-temperature-record
• John Quiggin on britain-the-new-el-salvador
• stumbling and mumbling on tories-structural-stupidity
• noahopinion on turkey-you-were-doing-so-well
• Alexander Gillespie on russia-says-peace-in-ukraine-will-be-on-our-terms-but-what-can-the-west-accept-and-at-what-cost
• Menzie Chinn on if-you-think-the-russian-government-is-doing-just-fine-because-of-oil-gas-revenues , tracking-the-russian-economy-are-sanctions-working

Asia

• The Cosmopolitan Globalist on the-iran-mess Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on china-q2-takes-an-expected-dive
• noahopinion on china-is-flailing
• Adam Lockyer on why-chinas-challenges-to-australian-ships-in-the-south-and-east-china-seas-are-likely-to-continue
• Donna Weeks on shadow-abe
• Sasha Fegan on india-s-social-media-crackdown-challenge-rules-based-order
• Khunghoon Kim on the-interpreter/indonesia-investment-authority-jokowi-s-trouble-shooter

Wonk

• Great Transformations on twilight-imperium Thanks Brad
• Abhijan Rej on quad-needs-futures-focus
• Tim Harford on the-high-price-we-pay-for-social-media
• Nick Gruen on elections-are-all-about-competition-right-they-werent-way-back-when
• coppolla comment on celsiuss-failure
• noahopinion on nutty-macroeconomic-theories-will-ruin-your-countrys-economy
• stumbling and mumbling on trinkets-of-frivolous-utility
• Michael Strain on russia-oil-price-cap-yellen-plan Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on the-1970s-myths-of-left-and-right-about-inflation-and-trade-unions
• Global Inequality on hopelessness Thanks Nick

General

• Sarah Webb on a-cosmic-time-machine-how-the-james-webb-space-telescope-lets-us-see-the-first-galaxies-in-the-universe
• Stanley Serafin on climate-conflict-collapse-how-drought-destabilised-the-last-major-precolonial-mayan-city
• Joanna Moncrief and Mark Horowitz on depression-is-probably-not-caused-by-a-chemical-imbalance-in-the-brain-new-study
• Merry Fitzpatrick and Irwin Rosenburg on warsaw-ghettos-defiant-jewish-doctors-secretly-documented-the-medical-effects-of-nazi-starvation-policies-in-a-book-recently-rediscovered-on-a-library-shelf
• Vanessa Pirotta on curious-kids-why-dont-whales-have-teeth-like-we-do
• Howard Manns and Kate Burridge on is-australian-rhyming-slang-in-a-bit-of-froth-and-bubble-lets-take-a-captain-cook-spoiler-the-billy-lids-may-hold-the-key

Climate

• Moyhu on giss-june-global-temperature-up-by-008-from-may
• Essays concerning on stuff-nonsense-confronts-climate-change
• met office on summer-2022-a-historic-season-for-northern-hemisphere-heatwaves
• Joel Eissenburg on the-air-we-breathe
• Andrew King on the-uk-just-hit-40-for-the-first-time-its-a-stark-reminder-of-the-deadly-heat-awaiting-australia
• and Then Theres Physics on flicc
• Kevin Trenberth on how-not-to-solve-the-climate-change-problem
• noahopinion on how-we-will-fight-climate-change
• the conversable economist on carbon-pricing-and-coverage-around-the-world

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-mapping-the-terrain-survey-of-students-teachers-and-parents-in-majority-muslim-societies
  
• dont-believe-the-dental-anxiety-hype
  
• what-happens-to-the-wall-street-journals-reputation-when-they-publish-a-regular-column-by-someone-associated-with-fraudulent-research
  
• where-did-the-expression-six-sided-number-cube-come-from
  
• vegetarians-and-covid-after-adjusting-for-important-confounders-researchers-who-are-willing-to-make-strong-unsupported-conclusions-are-had-73-or-0-27-95-ci-0-10-to-0-81-and-59-or-0-41-95-ci
  
• unsupervised-learning-gets-a-bad-rap
  
• predicting-consumers-choices-in-the-age-of-the-internet-ai-and-almost-perfect-tracking-some-things-change-the-key-challenges-do-not
  
• statschat on sampling-and-automation, briefly
• Kaiser Fung on what-is-ab-testing-2, predicting-invariables

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• gangsters politicians and international bureaucrats
• Astral codex ten on book-review-the-man-from-the-future Thanks nick

vox wonk

• policymaking-trust-and-demand-public-services
  
• communication-costs-science-and-innovation
  
• gender-gap-top-role-networks
  
• impact-mechanisation-wages-and-employment
  
• central-banks-and-climate-policies
  
• fighting-populism-its-own-turf
  
• russia-s-war-worsens-outlook-commission-s-summer-interim-forecast
  
• gains-trade-international-transport-costs-still-matter
  
• regional-development-trap-europe
  
• net-foreign-asset-position-us
  
• levelling-productivity-gaps-uk
  
• end-crypto-diversification-myth
  
• optimal-inflation-target-views-600-economists
  

another view of Winston Churchill

Gosh there were so many wonderful articles to highlight so I had to make a choice so why not an argument about Winston Churchill . ( Lloyd George I think to be easily the more interesting and better politician. ) I confess I am not a fan of Churchill. He was far too old after the war to be PM and fell asleep at cabinet meetings  and after advocating expansionary fiscal policy when he first 'came over' to the Liberals he was a gross disappointment as chancellor of the exchequer however even I found this article a bit over the top.

Judge for yourself

Nutty macro-economic theories

 Noah Smith at noahopinion ( get it) has a great article on nutty-macroeconomic-theories-will-ruin-your-countrys-economy.

He uses three case studies.

It is a MUST read

nothing can beat solar and batteries at peak times

 this is the title of the article nothing-can-beat-it-the-rise-and-rise-of-solar-and-battery-storage

As Mr Spock used to say fascinating

jobs for the boys

 The Grattan Institute, the best thinktank around, writes heres-a-simple-way-to-stop-governments-giving-jobs-to-mates

Around the Traps 15/7/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Wesley Morgan on will-australias-new-climate-policy-be-enough-to-reset-relations-with-pacific-nations
• Peter Whiteford on do-australians-pay-too-much-income-tax-6-charts-on-how-we-rank-against-the-rest-of-the-world
• renew economy on integrated-wind-and-solar-still-the-cheapest-and-green-hydrogen-costs-falling-fast-csiro, why-australia-does-n-t-need-so-much-storage-in-a-wind-and-solar-grid, slow-expensive-and-no-good-for-1-5-target-csiro-crushes-coalition-nuclear-fantasy, forget-nuclear-and-simplify-electrification-the-message-from-energy-experts, wind-solar-and-battery-supply-chains-vulnerable-to-geopolitical-crises-experts-warn, anu-says-flaws-with-australias-carbon-offset-irrefutable-as-coalition-appointees-resign
• Richard Dennis on australias-farcical-climate-policy-market-forces-to-cut-emissions-and-subsidies-to-destroy-carbon-sinks
• Spencer Zipcak on the-unconscionable-prosecution-of-bernard-collaery-was-an-assault-on-the-values-australia-holds-dear
• Bruce Mountain on labors-renewable-target-is-much-more-ambitious-than-it-seems-we-need-the-best-bang-for-buck-policy-responses
• Stephen Duckett  on we-lost-the-plot-on-covid-messaging-now-governments-will-have-to-be-bold-to-get-us-back-on-track
• Kevin Bonham on the-spurious-linking-of-one-vote-one-value-of-territory-senators
• Andrew Macintosh et al on australias-central-climate-policy-pays-people-to-grow-trees-that-already-existed-taxpayers-and-the-environment-deserve-better
• Jeff Borland on 3-5-unemployment-australias-jobless-rate-at-its-lowest-since-1974

Northern America

• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-rule-of-law-abortion-voting-rights-guns-epa
• Peter Sinclair on how-texas-shaky-grid-could-make-another-black-swan-for-supply-chains
• Nate Silver on maybe-dobbs-did-change-the-race-well-need-more-time-to-know-for-sure
• Molly Olmstead on sarah-matthews-jan-6-hearings
• public notice on scotus-tyranny-dobbs-kennedy-bremerton Thanks Brad
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-07
• Dylan Mathews on inflation-paul-volcker-shock-recession-1970s
• Madelaine Ngo on inflation-cpi-economy-prices
• Mark Stern on amy-coney-barrett-abortion-supreme-court-blunders
• David Cole on egregiously-wrong-the-supreme-courts-unprecedented-turn
• Sussan Glasser on letter-from-bidens-washington/a-president-asking-for-civil-war
• Mathew Winkler on inflation-alarm-bells-are-actually-getting-softer thanks Brad
• noahopinion on the-8-interest-rate-scenario-is-still-in-play
• new deal democrat on a-bad-june-cpi-report
• Nathaniel Rakich and Tony Chow on ron-desantis-drew-florida-an-extreme-gerrymander
• the conversable economist on technology-and-job-categories-in-decline
• Menzie Chinn on texas-electricity-generation-in-crises

Europe

• Anne Twomey on why-is-boris-johnson-still-uk-prime-minister-and-how-might-he-be-replaced
• Fred Kaplan on boris-johnson-britain-world-stage
• Robert Horvath on is-vladimir-putin-the-greatest-russophobe-of-all
• the debateable land on things-fall-apart Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on the-king-is-dead-long-live-king
• Anne Applebaum on russia-war-crimes-terrorism-definition

Asia

• Teesta Prakesh on abe-shinzo-quad-stands-his-indo-pacific-legacy
• noahopinion on abe-shinzo-a-retrospective
• Denghua Zhang and Eric Frecon on china-factor-france-s-growing-engagement-peaceful-sea
• David Walton on abe-shinzo-australia-best-friend-asia
• Peter Layton on answering-china-s-south-china-sea-flying-safety-challenge
• noahopinion on why-sri-lanka-is-having-an-economic-crisis
• Andrew Macleod on when-people-say-the-west-should-support-taiwan-what-exactly-do-they-mean
• Ryosuke Hanada on abe-s-drive-bring-back-japan
• Joanne Gray and Yi Wang on chinas-big-tech-problem-even-in-a-state-managed-economy-digital-companies-grow-too-powerful
• Niro Kindosamy on sri-lankas-crisis-is-not-just-about-the-economy-but-a-long-history-of-discrimination-against-minority-groups
• Syed Fazl-E-Haider on is-pakistan-heeding-warning-signs-sri-lanka 

Wonk

• Craig Mark on shooting-of-shinzo-abe-is-a-huge-shock-for-japan-and-the-world
• Tim Harford on learning-to-think-well-involves-hearts-as-well-as-minds
• Eric Kramer on is-classical-liberalism-anti-democratic-spoiler-alert-yes
• Brad De Long on morning-procrastination-leon-trotsky
• Rob Mainwaring on australian-labor-isnt-alone-parties-of-the-left-are-making-a-comeback
• noahopinion on on-bullshit-in-investing
• the conversable economist on pandemic-policy-support-jobs-or-workers, some-economics-of-blockbusting
• political junkie on the-new-neo-conservatives Thanks Brad
• Ashwin Swaminathan on how-soon-can-i-get-covid-again-experts-now-say-28-days-but-you-can-protect-yourself
• Tyler Cowen on david-neumark-and-peter-shirley-on-the-minimum-wage-literature
• Nick Gruen on economic-ideas-and-policy-outcomes-ross-garnauts-gruen-lecture

General

• Tom van Laer and Davide Orazi on its-not-nostalgia-stranger-things-is-fuelling-a-pseudo-nostalgia-of-the-1980s
• Michael Ward on what-is-foot-and-mouth-disease-why-farmers-fear-apocalyptic-bonfires-of-burning-carcasses
• Martin Bairstow on james-webb-telescope-a-scientist-explains-what-its-first-amazing-images-show-and-how-it-will-change-astronomy
• Anthony Lagain on there-are-94-million-craters-on-mars-scientists-found-the-one-this-meteorite-called-home
• Cherine Fahd on how-the-james-webb-deep-field-images-reminded-me-the-divide-between-science-and-art-is-artificial
• Karl Grazebrook and Simon Driver on two-experts-break-down-the-james-webb-space-telescopess-first-images-and-explain-what-weve-already-learnt

Climate

• Moyhu on june-global-surface-templs-up-0112-from-may
• Real Climate on the-cos2-problem-in-six-easy-steps-2022-update
• Richard Jones on we-studied-how-the-antarctic-ice-sheet-advanced-and-retreated-over-10-000-years-it-holds-warnings-for-the-future
• Met Office on its-warmer-than-average-but-what-is-average

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• columbia-loses-its-no-2-spot-in-the-u-s-news-rankings
  
• gaurav-soods-review-of-the-book-noise-by-kahneman-et-al-in-writing-about-noise-in-human-judgment-the-authors-didnt-wrestle-with-the-problem-of-noise-in-behavioral-science-research
  
• forking-paths-in-the-estimate-of-the-value-premium
  
• clearing-up-confusions-about-the-interpretation-of-logistic-regression-coefficients-on-the-probability-scale
  
• dont-go-back-to-rockville-possible-scientific-fraud-in-the-traffic-model-for-a-highway-project
  
• j-robert-lennon-on-working-with-your-closest-collaborator
  
• the-messy-reality-in-between
  
• how-much-should-theories-guide-learning-through-experiments
  
• Kaiser Fung on what-is-ab-testing

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on the scientific approach in the time of crisis, on consequences of goodhardts law, collaborative insurance and network structure

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• profit-and-time
  
• politics-by-numbers
  
• what-comes-after-the-knowledge-economy
  
• casting-off-the-digital-chains
  
• ethics-culture-and-economics
  

Vox Wonk

• financial-crises-drivers-populism
  
• europe-s-growing-league-small-corporate-bond-issuers
  
• using-machine-learning-assess-impact-deep-trade-agreements
  
• social-media-influences-mainstream-media
  
• economic-incentives-and-cognitive-skill
  
• covid-19-federal-assistance-state-and-local-governments-and-its-consequences
  
• ecb-speeches-and-trust
  
• covid-19-federal-assistance-state-and-local-governments-and-its-consequences
  
• declining-within-and-across-village-risk-sharing-rural-china
  
• stagflation-debt-crises
  
• declining-within-and-across-village-risk-sharing-rural-china
  
• climate-change-risks-sovereign-debt
  
• innovation-response-covid-crisis-new-ebook
  
• trade-volatility-and-role-specialisation-and-diversification
  
• post-disaster-policies-expose-more-people-disaster-risks
  

What to do with Omicron?

 Stephen Duckett from the highly esteemed Grattan Institute writes on we-lost-the-plot-on-covid-messaging-now-governments-will-have-to-be-bold-to-get-us-back-on-track

I for one thinks reinforcing social distancing of 1.5 metres together with the wearing of masks when not outside should be a boon to fighting omicron

Boris Johnson

 Boris Johnson is going.

A few thoughts from:

• Simon Wren-Lewis
• Matthew Parris and Ian Dunt

They are all critics but Ian Dunt was on the money about Boris to start with.

More on renewables in OZ

 A couple of articles on the future of energy in Australia.

• integrated-wind-and-solar-still-the-cheapest-and-green-hydrogen-costs-falling-fast-csiro
  
• why-australia-does-n-t-need-so-much-storage-in-a-wind-and-solar-grid
  
• slow-expensive-and-no-good-for-1-5-target-csiro-crushes-coalition-nuclear-fantasy
  
• forget-nuclear-and-simplify-electrification-the-message-from-energy-experts
  

Nothing has changed except we might not need as much storage as we thought previously. 

Abe Shinzo

 The assassination of Abe has provoked a few articles about him.

• Teesta Prakash
• Bryan Walsh
• David Frum
• Isaac Chotiner
• Noah Smith

Acca Dacca

 If you really love ACDC then it was only when Bon Scott was their singer.

Their best song quite easily was its a long to the shop if you want a chiko roll.

Here it is.

Around the Traps 8/7/22

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Esther Suckling and Alison Reeve on regional-towns-are-at-risk-of-being-wiped-out-by-the-move-to-net-zero-heres-their-best-chance-for-survival
• Paul Glasziou and David Henry on flu-may-be-back-but-covid-is-far-from-over-how-do-they-compare
• Dale Dominey-Howes on whats-causing-sydneys-monster-flood-crisis-and-3-ways-to-stop-it-from-happening-again
• Maryanne Macdonald et al on recognising-indigenous-knowledges-is-not-just-culturally-sound-its-good-science
• renew economy on cost-difference-is-staggering-why-aemo-roadmap-falls-short-of-100-renewables, costs-for-new-build-wind-and-solar-have-jumped-but-nothing-like-those-of-fossil-fuels, big-shift-in-language-transgrid-welcomes-new-urgency-in-transmission-plans, marginal-loss-factors-why-they-matter-and-where-they-bite, arena-shortlists-3gw-of-advanced-big-batteries-essential-for-100-renewable-grid, were-not-there-yet-bowen-says-capacity-design-needs-flexibility-and-emissions-goal, solar-duck-curve-why-we-must-fix-the-cause-and-not-just-the-symptoms
• David Peetz on how-australias-gig-workers-may-remain-contractors-under-labors-reforms
• Murray Goot on the-abss-notion-of-the-average-australian-makes-little-sense-heres-why
• Brian Cook and Tim Werner on to-stop-risky-developments-in-floodplains-we-have-to-tackle-the-profit-motive-and-our-false-sense-of-security
• James Pittock on patently-ridiculous-state-government-failures-have-exacerbated-sydneys-flood-disaster
• Isaac Gross on rates-rise-to-1-35-and-theres-no-stopping-now-the-rbas-on-a-mission-to-whip-inflation
• Robert Glasser on australias-finally-acknowledged-climate-change-is-a-national-security-threat-here-are-5-mistakes-to-avoid
• Stephen Duckett on how-has-covid-affected-australians-health-new-report-shows-where-weve-failed-and-done-well
• Johannes Nugroho on becoming-republic-will-improve-australia-s-image-asia
• Institutional Economics on the-rbas-latest-cash-rate-increase
• Raina MacIntyre on access-to-a-second-covid-booster-vaccine-has-been-expanded-to-people-30-years-and-over
• Croaking Cassandra on what-might-be-done-about-the-reserve-bank, consulting-on-the-remit

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on the-non-technical-recession-recession-of-2001, of-revisions-and-seasonality-in-the-pandemic-era
• Patrick Parenteau on the-supreme-court-has-curtailed-epas-power-to-regulate-carbon-pollution-and-sent-a-warning-to-other-regulators
• noahopinion on disinflation-begins, will-vc-produce-fewer-home-runs-in-the-future
• Michael Tab on evan-mcmullin-is-not-a-democrat-utah-democrats-are-supporting-his-senate-campaign-anyway
• can we still govern on the-courts-as-an-instrument-of-american-decline Thanks Nick Gruen
• letters from an american on June 30 2022 Thanks Nick
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-packing-roe-wade-voting-rights-jurisdiction-stripping
• Ken Melvin on scotus
• Nicole Narea on abortion-ballot-measures-california-vermont-kentucky-kansas-montana
• Christopher Kang on why-democrats-giving-mitch-mcconnell-judges
• 538 on the-supreme-courts-partisan-divide-hasnt-been-this-sharp-in-generations
• Emma Long on the-us-supreme-court-what-is-its-role-and-its-powers
• Zack Beauchamp on end-of-conservatism-roe
• Mary Harris on supreme-court-biden-pack-reform-conservatives-commission

Europe

• Stefan Wolff on g7-and-nato-summits-lay-bare-deep-and-hostile-divide-between-russia-and-china-and-the-west
• Greg Dolgopolov on how-solntsepyok-a-brutal-2021-propaganda-film-primed-russians-for-war-with-ukraine
• Carole Nakhle on russias-oil-is-in-long-term-decline-and-the-war-has-only-added-to-the-problem
• Basil Germode on ukraine-war-reclaiming-snake-island-is-kyivs-biggest-strategic-victory-so-far-heres-why
• Jen Kirby on boris-johnson-uk-cabinet-resignations-scandal-revolt,boris-johnson-prime-minister-resigns
• Mathew Sussex on russias-ukraine-invasion-is-slowly-approaching-an-inflection-point-is-the-west-prepared-to-step-up
• Tyler Cowen on how-bad-is-the-new-german-trade-deficit

Asia

• Amita Batra on india-s-trade-policy-needs-prioritise-region
• Shivangi Seth on why-india-needs-refugee-law
• Samuel Bashfield on british-indian-ocean-territory-and-rules-based-order
• David Tuffey on concerns-over-tiktok-feeding-user-data-to-beijing-are-back-and-theres-good-evidence-to-support-them
• Roland Rajah on india-s-economy-after-covid
• Tiara Dewanti on asean-and-pandemic-recovery-economy-rivalry
• Angela Lehman on under-pressure-chinese-international-graduates-new-china
• noahopinion on abe-shinzo-a-retrospective

Wonk

• John Hawkins on cryptocurrencies-are-great-for-gambling-but-lousy-at-liberating-our-money-from-big-central-banks
• Frank Bongiorno on are-we-learning-the-wrong-lessons-from-history
• Tim Harford on even-when-you-do-succeed-sometimes-it-pays-to-try-again
• the conversable economist on venture-capital-size-and-focus
• John Cochrane on how-much-do-interest-rates-help
• war on the rocks on the-other-big-lessons-that-the-u-s-army-should-learn-from-ukraine Thanks Brad
• John Quiggin on would-we-be-better-off-without-corporations
• Alex Tabarrok on the-mixed-economy-is-politically-stable
• Jacopo Ponticelli on austerity and anarchy Thank you Peter Whiteford
• Daniel Immerwahr on wielding-wheat-oceans-of-grain-nelson
• Stephen Coleman on the-fall-of-boris-johnson-any-democracy-should-look-to-his-case-and-ask-if-it-is-enabling-machiavellian-leaders
• noahopinion on americans-are-generally-richer-than-europeans

General

• Christopher Pollard on karl-marx-his-philosophy-explained
• Sallie Cowan et al on is-netball-actually-bad-for-knees-and-ankles-what-does-the-research-say

Climate

• Andrew Freedman on climate-change-extreme-weather-italy-australia-alaska

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• taking-theory-more-seriously-in-psychological-science
  
• i-know-what-they-meant-to-say-here-it-was-just-funny-how-they-expressed-it
  
• historical-journal-records-reveal-a-surge-of-methodological-distortions-in-recent-decades
  
• eventually-all-information-will-belong-to-whoever-has-the-best-lawyers
  
• fun-july-4th-statistics-story-too-many-melons-not-enough-dogs
  
• 3-examples-of-pos-publication-review-ecology-the-underground-economy-and-lockdowns
  
• solving-inverse-problems-using-bayesian-inference-with-fft-in-stan-from-python-this-example-has-it-all
  
• back-in-the-usa
  
• consequences-are-often-intended
  
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-34-coming-for-your-most-private-data

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on what responsibility for the algorithms, government intervention in catastrophe insurance markets, assurance bias discrimination and fairness

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• energy-balancing-act-between-security-and-transition
  
• faith-and-assimilation
  
• reducing-unavailability-stem-cell-donors
  
• null-result-penalty
  
• using-machine-learning-study-parenting-styles
  
• us-racial-wealth-gap-1860-2020
  
• structural-reforms-help-address-cost-living-crisis
  
• forced-displacement-gender-identity-norms-and-marital-stability-wake-war-ukraine
  
• welfare-can-discourage-crime-more-it-discourages-work
  
• treaty-sanctions-pre-emptive-use-nuclear-weapons
  
• learning-prices-does-not-come-free
  
• capturing-top-incomes-and-measuring-inequality-europe
  
• trade-family-formation-and-fertility-low-fertility-settings
  
• financial-crises-drivers-populism
  
• advance-private-sector-among-china-s-largest-companies-under-xi-jinping
  

The ABC gets it right and wrong

 The times they are depressing so I am going to write about something not very important.

In recent times the ABC have had to replace people in TV and radio ( in Sydney).

Replacing Leigh Sales with Sarah Ferguson made sense. If anything she is a better interviewer than Sales and she takes no  prisoners.

It is radio their changes make little sense. We eventually got rid of Fran Kelly on RN breakfast but replacing her with Patricia Karvelas was a poor choice. She was competent in the drive shift previously but in breakfast the world revolves around her. ( It is also why she is a poor Insiders hostess). She is not a great interviewer. Hamish McDonald was the perfect replacement. Like David Speers he lets his questions make all the noise that is needed. This is why politicians often get into trouble with him.

On 702 they moved James Valentine form early afternoons where he was good to breakfast. you should never reduce your strengths. Valentine simply does not click with breakfast and his replacement Josh Szeps is simply boring. 2BL have has a number of good breakfast presenters so why change?

Rant over

The RBA continues to raise interest rates

 Well the RBA raised official cash rates by 60 points yesterday. They are now at 1.35%. I would prefer them to be at 1.5%. This is because the neutral rate is somewhere between 1.5 and 2% and the sooner we get there the better.

I think we can assume an official cash rate of 2.5% by the end of the year if we take Lowe at his word. That would mean monetary policy is mildly contractionary. IF the Government reduces the structural  budget deficit significantly ( there was no reduction in the last budget) then that might be it.

However economics is not a science by educated guesswork. My GUESS is the RBA will take a breather at 2.5% and see what happens.  

Hopefully by the end of next year inflation will be in the 2-3% band. Hopefully

Faith and assimilation

 A fascinating paper on faith-and-assimilation. It examines Italian migration to the USA  between 1890 and 1920 .

It isn't long but it is very interesting

an article for stat nerds

 if you are into stats then read null-result-penalty