Inflation in America

 This sounds like a Kim Wilde song. I am showing my age.

Here are some articles on the very subject.

• inflation-fighting-as-a-multi-decade-project
  
• team-transitory-roars-back
  
• the-fed-looks-increasingly-determined-to-make-a-major-policy-error
  
• its-all-relative
  
• guest-contribution-inflation-fed-policy-and-emerging-markets
  

Free Trade and War

 My thanks to  Nick Gruen who kindly puts out some weekend reading tips every weekend.

This weekend he had Branko Milanovic's free-trade-and-war.

It is a wonderful paper and quite interesting and early on he highlights three links to the origins of WW1.

A few things if you are interested in the origins of WW1 then read Dreadnought. 

I have been reminded of the same decline in Foreign Affairs which occurred in this period by the current Chinese government.

Around the Traps 28/1/22

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Lyn Gilbert on 1-100-australian-aged-care-homes-are-locked-down-due-to-covid-what-have-we-learnt-from-deaths-in-care
• croaking cassandra on to-what-end, inflation-monetary-policy-and-all-that
• Mark the Ballot on first-roy-morgan-poll-for-2022, betting-markets-who-will-win
• renew economy on regulator-outlines-solar-tax-rules-says-onus-on-networks-to-prove-they-need-it, fortescue-buys-williams-engineering-in-major-push-into-battery-storage, australias-best-performing-wind-and-solar-farms-in-2021-and-the-leading-states, the-media-need-to-get-better-at-interrogating-hydrogen, wind-solar-and-water-chase-coal-and-gas-out-of-grid-and-reshape-price-and-demand
• Greg Jericho on if-youre-a-younger-worker-in-australia-dont-be-fooled-on-tax-cuts, the-market-thinks-rates-are-about-to-go-up-because-of-inflation-the-market-could-be-wrong
• John Hawkins on inflation-hits-3-5-but-one-high-number-wont-budge-the-reserve-bank-on-interest-rates
• AJ Brown on australia-and-norway-were-once-tied-in-global-anti-corruption-rankings-now-were-heading-in-opposite-directions
• Jeff Borland on an-unemployment-rate-below-4-is-possible-but-for-how-long
• Institutional economics on let-lowe-release-his-inner-dove
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-its-too-early-for-the-rba-to-pull-the-trigger-on-interest-rates
• Michelle Grattan on a-royal-commission-into-covids-handling-would-serve-us-well-for-the-future
• Simon Nicholas and Souroush Basirat on is-there-scope-for-faster-decarbonisation-of-australian-steel

Northern America

• Kirsten Carlson on supreme-court-rejects-trumps-blocking-of-jan-6-docs-3-key-takeaways-from-ruling
• Ellen Iannes on kyrsten-sinema-voting-rights-filibuster-backlash-censure
• the conversable economist on public-opinion-on-capitalism-and-socialism
• noahopinion on some-thoughts-and-evidence-on-racial-preferences-on-admissions
• newdeal democrat on a-historical-note-on-us-treasury-interest-rates-and-stock-prices
• Geoffrey Skelley on the-7-senate-races-that-will-likely-decide-control-of-the-chamber
• Jonathan Bernstein on where-do-great-presidents-come-from-the-campaign-trail Thanks Brad
• Stephen Roach on federal-reserve-mad-scramble-to-control-inflation Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on breakeven-and-tips
• Thomas Homer-Dixon on the-american-polity-is-cracked-and-might-collapse-canada-and-the-world-must-prepare Thanks Nick

Europe

• Martyn Bennett on in-the-name-of-god-go-the-history-of-a-speech-that-has-brought-down-parliament-and-a-prime-minister
• Alexey Muraviev on 2022-not-2014-what-holds-back-russia-ukraine
• Mainly Macro on the-bbcs-crisis-over-scientific-fact
• noahopinion on why-is-ukraine-such-an-economic-failure
• stumbling and mumbling on power-not-prices
• renew economy on solar-and-wind-are-cheaper-than-ever-so-why-the-eu-energy-price-crisis
• Tatsiana Kulakevich on 5-things-to-know-about-why-russia-might-invade-ukraine-and-why-the-us-is-involved
• Barkley Rosser on whither-kazakhstan

Asia

• Huyng Tam Sang on could-minilateralism-work-south-china-sea
• Evan Freidan on china-s-new-reality
• Johannes Nugroho on indonesia-standing-between-great-powers
• Kashish Shah on india-endgame-for-new-coal-power-projects

Wonk

• Tim Harford on omicron-optimist-pessimist-or-fatalist-which-are-you
• the conversable economist on central-bank-digital-currency-the-fed-speaks, the-slowdown-in-agricultural-productivity-growth
• Menzie Chinn on bitcoin-vix-and-expected-inflation, inflation-us-vs-euro-area-and-uk
• Deborah Burnett  on will-an-omicron-specific-vaccine-help-control-covid-theres-one-key-problem
• Ashwin Swaminathan on how-accurate-is-your-rat-3-scenarios-show-its-about-more-than-looking-for-lines
• Peter Draper and Naoise Mcdonagh on will-eu-step-secure-rules-based-indo-pacific-trade
• John Quiggin on the-simplified-economics-of-electric-cars
• Eric Lonergan on the-wrong-chapter-of-the-textbook
• the unpopulist on the-neo-rights-preoccupation Thanks Brad
• Peter Layton on living-feared-china-and-russian-built-chaos
• Branko Milanovic on free-trade-and-war Thanks Nick

General

• Karl Grazebrook on nasas-james-webb-space-telescope-has-reached-its-destination-1-5-million-km-from-earth-heres-what-happens-next

Climate

• Jane Cuneen on 5-ways-climate-change-boosts-tsunami-threat-from-collapsing-ice-shelves-to-sea-level-rise
• Graeme Readfearn on coal-based-liquid-hydrogen-pivotal-for-green-energy-the-experts-doubt-it
• Tim Buckley on financing-the-future-of-green-hydrogen

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• more-on-p-values-etc-etc-etc
  
• did-volcanic-eruptions-turn-venus-into-a-hothouse
  
• kaiser-fung-on-axis-zero-and-spiral-charts
  
• controversies-over-high-school-math-curriculum-a-hope-for-the-expectation-of-more-parent-involvement-despair-over-politicization-the-usual-stuff
  
• mister-p-when-you-dont-have-the-full-poststratification-table-you-only-have-margins
  
• how-large-a-sample-size-does-he-actually-need-he-got-statistical-significance-twice-isnt-that-enough
  
• how-do-things-work-at-top-econ-journals-exactly-this-is-one-weird-ass-story
  
• im-skeptical-of-that-claim-that-cash-aid-to-poor-mothers-increases-brain-activity-in-babies
  
• a-cure-for-gravity
  
• freedom-is-not-user-friendly
  
• regression-and-other-stories-free-pdf
  
• what-is-fame-the-perspective-from-niles-michigan
  
• Kaiser Fung on intermission-over, unnecessary-complications
• statschat on how-many-omicrons

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on term-structure-modeling-for-policy-evaluation, forecasting-epidemics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• i-try-to-be-open-minded-about-wfh
  

Vox Wonk

• triple-impact-school-closures-educational-inequality
  
• ramadan-intensity-and-subsequent-student-achievement
  
• identifying-state-dependence-brand-choice
  
• reflections-eu-s-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism
  
• identifying-state-dependence-brand-choice
  
• impact-maritime-piracy-trade-and-transport
  
• fiscal-local-eu-standards-national-fiscal-frameworks
  
• looking-under-hood-two-faces-inflation
  
• services-jobs-and-economic-development-africa
  
• understanding-setup-and-speed-global-covid-19-vaccination-campaigns
  
• cop26-assessment-and-challenges
  
• younger-generations-and-lost-dream-homeownership
  
• informal-sector-compounding-damage-covid-19
  
• african-history-through-lens-economics
  

Dopesick

 I watched dopesick this week with my family. It is a mini-series on Disney. It is based on a book by Beth Macy. 

It is very depressing but a riveting series. It is brilliantly written and acted. all the main characters are superb. I simply could not wait to watch the next episode.

Highly highly recommended.

THIS is very good.

January 26 should NEVER be Australia day

 Australia became a nation on January 1 yet for some unfathomable reason some people want to celebrate this on January 26 when NSW became a colony of the United Kingdom.

For the sake of accuracy can people who wish to celebrate Australia as a nation do it on the right date.

Doing it on January 26 is simply embarrassing.

Busy tomorrow back on Thursday.

Around the Traps 21/1/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Ausssie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andrew King on this-wa-town-just-topped-50-a-dangerous-temperature-many-australians-will-have-to-get-used-to
• Stephen Percy on green-hydrogen-is-coming-and-these-australian-regions-are-well-placed-to-build-our-new-export-industry
• Catherine Bennett on latest-isolation-rules-for-critical-workers-gets-the-balance-right-but-thats-not-the-end-of-the-story
• Maria O'Sullivan on why-novak-djokovic-lost-his-fight-to-stay-in-australia-and-why-it-sets-a-concerning-precedent
• Nikola Mikovic on novak-djokovic-symbol-anti-vaxxers
• renew economy on neoen-begins-work-on-first-stage-of-australias-biggest-wind-solar-and-battery-project, 5b-targets-solar-farm-building-robots-in-33m-push-to-ultra-low-cost-pv, renewable-hydrogen-costs-expected-to-plummet-by-2030-heres-how, regulator-outlines-solar-tax-rules-says-onus-on-networks-to-prove-they-need-it
• Christina Nikitopopoulus et al on 4-ways-to-stop-australias-surge-in-rooftop-solar-from-destabilising-electricity-prices
• Croaking Cassandra on central-bank-research
• Institutional Economics on next-weeks-inflation-shock
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-disclosure-please-we-shouldnt-be-playing-bingo-with-covid-statistics
• Stephen Leeder on omicron-is-overwhelming-australias-hospital-system-3-emergency-measures-aim-to-ease-the-burden
• Daniel Flitton on test-australia-s-place-world
• Mark the ballot on resolve-strategic-first-poll-for-2022

Northern America

• unpopular front on what-is-trumpism Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on americas-top-environmental-groups-have-lost-the-plot-on-climate-change, the-yimbys-are-starting-to-win-a-few, did-macroeconomics-fail-us-on-inflation
• the conversable economist on the-us-economy-as-2022-begins, who-benefits-from-cancelling-student-loans
• lawyers,guns,money on the-fox-news-court thanks Brad
• Andrew Prokop on democrats-voting-rights-senate-filibuster-manchin
• Robert Waldman on anopnion-ii
• Nathaniel Rackich on the-countless-confusing-sometimes-contradictory-takeaways-of-the-2021-22-redistricting-cycle
• the time of monsters on false-dichotomy-in-the-fascism-debate
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-january-6-trump-thompson-commitee-subpoena
• newdeal democrat on fox-news-and-white-grievance
• Macromania on the-inflation-blame-game
• Tyler Cowen on how-many-lives-were-lost-because-of-the-vaccines-holdup

Europe

• Mathew Sussex on russia-and-the-west-are-at-a-stalemate-over-ukraine-is-putins-endgame-now-war
• Craig Prescott on why-prince-andrew-is-losing-his-military-titles-but-staying-a-prince
• renew economy on uk-energy-crisis-is-a-fossil-fuel-crisis-and-gas-is-the-villain
• Ben Wellings on boris-johnson-and-partygate-he-who-lives-by-the-brexit-sword-dies-by-the-brexit-sword

Asia

• Antonio Graceffow on mongolia-suffers-under-china-s-zero-covid-policy
• Menzie Chinn on covid-impact-and-macroeconomic-policy-in-asia
• Institutional Economics on xis-rightly-wary-of-fed-tightening

Wonk

• Tim Harford on the-hidden-costs-of-cost-benefit-analysis
• Barkley Rosser on is-downward-sloping-phillips-curve-back
• Claire Young on cold-front-antarctica-military-future
• noahopinion on i-can-only-promise-you-that-its-going-to-get-weirder

General

• Robin Canniford and Tim Hill  on sportswashing-how-mining-and-energy-companies-sponsor-your-favourite-sports-to-help-clean-up-their-image

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on the-tragedy-of-climate-change-science
• Real Climate on another-dot-on-the-graph
• Andrew King on 2021-was-one-of-the-hottest-years-on-record-and-it-could-also-be-the-coldest-well-ever-see-again
• met office on natural-variation-and-the-influence-on-global-temperature

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• what-went-wrong-in-the-labeling-of-those-cool-graphs-of-yt-vs-yt
  
• deep-maps-model-of-the-labor-force-the-impact-of-the-current-employment-crisis-on-places-and-people
  
• more-on-the-oldest-famous-person
  
• djokovic-data-sleuthing-and-the-case-of-the-incoherent-covid-test-records
• not-so-obviously-heuristic-proof-reforms-to-statistical-communication
  
• whitehead-no-russell-chicken-no-chaser
  
• about-that-a-c-repairman-story
  
• could-voting-restrictions-be-increasing-election-fraud
  
• statschat on how-long-to-omicron, vaccination-survey-vs-data
• Kaiser Fung on open-questions-of-the-pandemic-part-2, great-data-journalism-should-have-destroyed-djokovics-story-but-it-didnt, open-questions-of-the-pandemic-part-3

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on macro-skewness-and-conditional-second-moments, machine-learning-for-stock-return-volatility, more-on-long-short-term-memory
• Freakometrics on bias assurance

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• how-to-invent-ideas
  

Vox Wonk

• revising-european-fiscal-framework-part-1-rules
  
• value-online-gig-economy-platforms
  
• revising-european-fiscal-framework-part-2-debt-management
  
• environmental-burden-international-job-market-economists
  
• opening-black-box-hospital-mergers
  
• environmental-burden-international-job-market-economists
  
• tracking-business-dynamism-during-covid-19-pandemic
  
• mussa-puzzle-and-optimal-exchange-rate-policy
  
• views-monetary-policy-communication-former-ecb-policymakers
  
• working-home-and-corporate-real-estate
  
• impact-shortages-manufacturing-eu
  
• reducing-public-debt-need-not-be-punishment
  
• populist-damage-trading-system
  
• digitalisation-and-future-banking
  
• identifying-indicators-systemic-risk
  
• employment-effects-restricting-fixed-term-contracts
  
• fair-and-inclusive-markets-why-fostering-dynamism-matters
  
• less-or-more-zero
  

how to stop rooftop solar from destablising electricity prices

 This is essentially the title of an article at the conversation.

Interesting

okay I will post something on tennis

 I have attempted to simply give what happened down in Melbourne a miss. why did the government give out a visa in the first place is a great question.

HOWEVER Andrew Gelman gives us Kaiser Fung on some of the ramifications.

Fascinating as the late Mr Spock would say.

What have we learnt from the Ashes

 What lessons have we learned from the Ashes?

First of all we were lucky the poms batting was so bad. We have only two matchwinning bowlers Cummins and Hazelwood and one was injured. We can confidently say Starc has lost his ability to swing the ball and his pace rarely reached 145k. Starc rarely finishes any series well. Stamina?? If the poms has simply only played the cut and glance against him he would have taken few wickets.  Richardson and Boland were only competent bowlers at best allowed to flourish by bad batsmen.  Lyon rarely looked a matchwinner either.

Our batting was exposed by Wood's pace. All our 'great' batsmen were unnerved by his pace. Imagine if Archer or Stone were fit or they actually picked some fast bowlers who can bowl 150k.. The poms lack of any decent spinners meant  our batting looked better than it was. It still appears we have flat track bullies who either fai8l or have a lot of luck when the pitch assists bowlers.

We were assisted by inept english selection and strategy. did the poms pay no attention at all to India last summer?? It was also apparent Root is no captain. Why would you bowl Leach first after a break? 

Our big break was Greene becoming a useful fast medium bowler. Carey was also a break as a wikkie.

I tend to completely discount the Ashes and wait for the Pakistan  tour. 

We do have an aging team with no pace up front anymore. There is no pace replacement in the wings either.

Wouldn't it be ironic if the poms produced fast bouncy greentops for us in two years and only they had genuinely quick bowlers!!

the US economy

 the conversable economist examines the US economy for us.

Around the Traps 14/1/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Flaviou Macou on supermarket-shortages-are-different-this-time-how-to-respond-and-avoid-panic
• renew economy on new-record-caps-stunning-year-of-australian-solar-milestones-sets-tone-for-2022, woodside-pitches-massive-solar-and-battery-plant-minuscule-dent-in-emissions
• John Quiggin on labors-proposed-10-billion-social-housing-fund-isnt-big-as-it-seems-but-it-could-work
• Ann Twomey on at-long-last-we-can-tear-open-the-queens-secret-letters-with-australias-governors-general
• Rachael Nolan et al on fire-management-in-australia-has-reached-a-crossroads-and-business-as-usual-wont-cut-it
• Richard Holden on the-3-problems-with-fines-for-not-reporting-positive-covid-tests
• Michelle Grattan on government-management-of-omicron-blighted-by-false-assumptions-bad-planning

Northern America

• John Murphy on biden-urges-america-to-see-the-truth-of-jan-6-and-understand-its-place-in-history
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-vaccine-mandate-osha-workplace-cms-medicare-medicaid-biden
• noahopinion on the-biden-boom, yes-worker-skills-matter, america-needs-more-basic-research
• the conversable economist on what-americans-like-about-their-health-care, us-pharmaceuticals-a-bifurcated-market
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-04
• Ed Yong on for-covid-with-covid-hospitals-are-mess-either-way
• Kaleigh Rogers  on the-big-lie-voting-laws
• the time of monsters on destroying-the-democratic-party-wont-defeat-trump
• Nicole Narea on texas-omicron-hospitalizations-covid-icu-testing-vaccine
• Amelia Thomason-Deveaux on the-supreme-courts-right-turn-goes-way-beyond-guns-and-abortion/

Europe

• Lena Harned on in-kazakhstan-russia-follows-a-playbook-it-developed-in-ukraine
• Mainly Macro on the-broadcast-media-knowledge-disconnect
• Fintan O'Toole on arum-arum-araaaaaagh
• Rebecca Mead on boris-johnsons-lockdown-partygate
• Chris Stafford on boris-johnsons-downing-street-party-apology-three-key-takeaways

Asia

• David Brewster on indian-ocean-step
• noahopinion on six-books-on-china
• Brad De Long on trying-to-grasp-the-reality-of-china-today
• Shaun Cameron on whoever-controls-spice-controls-universe
• Chayanika Saxena and Roshni Kapur on geopolitics-aiding-taliban-s-afghanistan

Wonk

• Sarah Schiffling and Nikoalaos Kanellos on supply-chains-in-2022-shortages-will-continue-but-for-some-sellers-the-problem-will-be-too-much-stock
• Tim Harford on the-life-saving-magic-of-playing-games
• Uneasy Money on the-rises-and-falls-of-keynesianism-and-monetarism
• stumbling and mumbling on against-work, how-to-commit-fraud
• Stephen Grenville on history-lessons-great-crash
• Shannon Zimmerman on peace-and-security-not-the-same-thing
• Nick Gruen on ideas-hacks-representation-by-sampling-and-political-theory

General

• Aram Goudsouzian on sidney-poitier-hollywoods-first-black-leading-man-reflected-the-civil-rights-movement-on-screen

Climate

• Peter Sinclair on new-analysis-clean-energy-grid-with-no-blackouts
• Jim Green on in-2022-nuclear-powers-future-is-grimmer-than-ever
• Skeptical Science on the 1.5 degrees goal
• Eric Lonergan on the-wrong-chapter-of-the-textbook

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• my-new-article-failure-and-success-in-political-polling-and-election-forecasting-and-the-tangled-yet-uninteresting-story-of-how-it-came-to-be
  
• object-of-the-class-jacques-cousteau
  
• the-real-problem-of-that-nudge-meta-analysis-is-not-that-it-include-12-papers-by-noted-fraudsters-its-the-gigo-of-it-all
  
• suspense-in-music-suspense-in-stories-how-do-they-differ
  
• a-new-kind-of-spam
  
• this-is-a-great-graph-plotting-yt-vs-yt-tracing-over-time-with-a-dot-for-each-year
  
• the-hitchhikers-guide-to-responsible-machine-learning-and-statistical-analysis-illustrated
  
• chatbots-still-dumb-after-all-these-years
  
• Kaiser Fung on why-fda-says-stick-to-the-test, common-misreading-of-data-with-time-lags ,changing-metrics-when-you-dislike-the-results

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• muddle-muddle-toil-trouble
  
• Tyler Cowen on wgat-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• unemployment-risk-channel-business-cycle-fluctuations
  
• language-subsidies-improve-knowledge-transfers-multinationals
  
• bitcoin-challenge
  
• what-facebook-can-tell-us-about-preference-differences-between-women-and-men
  
• discrimination-sexual-minorities-emerging-markets
  
• technology-transfer-and-early-industrial-development
  
• using-compensating-efficiencies-assess-eu-merger-policy
  
• pulse-biometric-measure-wellbeing
  
• zero-lower-bound-inflation-expectations
  
• services-firms-small-can-be-beautiful
  
• quantifying-full-impact-country-specific-policies-trade-flows
  
• how-global-risk-perceptions-affect-economic-growth
  
• potential-capital-working-home-and-economic-resilience
  
• trying-account-decline-labour-share
  

Nuclear energy's future is not bright

 Jim Green writes on this for renew economy.

I have always found nuclear advocates strange. It takes 15 years to build a nuclear reactor. It would then need a price on carbon of  $50-60 to compete with coal fired power. It cam never be competitive with renewables.

history lessons from the great crash

 Stephen Grenville ( former deputy governor of the RBA) writes an interesting article for the Lowy Institute on history-lessons-great-crash

David Glasner on Keynesian and monetarist ecobomics

 A typical thoughtful piece from David Glasner on the-rises-and-falls-of-keynesianism-and-monetarism

The Biden Boom

 noah smith at noahopinion ( get it?) has a very interesting article on the-biden-boom.

Whaddyathink?

Around the Traps 7/1/22

 It is time for Around the Traps in this new year.

Aussie,Aussie,Ausssie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on like-songs-best-graphs-tell-stories
• Chris Wallace on cabinet-papers-2001-how-securitisation-became-a-mindset-to-dominate-australian-politics-for-a-generation
• Hugh White on ssn-vs-ssk
• Mark the Graph on christmas-2021-complete-set-of-covid-charts-for-Australia
• Mark the Ballot on pymc
• Ross Gittins on there-are-many-ways-to-stuff-up-productivity
• Armarium Interreta on do-outlier-polls-tend-to-get-it-right
• renew economy on all-signs-point-to-a-quick-transition-to-renewables-but-can-we-connect-them, nsw-lays-out-details-of-grand-plan-to-lock-in-wind-and-solar-and-exit-coal, australia-is-racing-towards-100-per-cent-renewables-what-does-that-look-like
• Julieanne Lamond on ministerial-interference-is-an-attack-on-academic-freedom-and-australias-literary-culture
• Mark Kenny on morrisons-political-judgement-goes-missing-on-rapid-antigen-test-debacle
• Raina MacIntyre on from-covid-control-to-chaos-what-now-for-australia-two-pathways-lie-before-us
• Ian Wright on sydneys-dams-may-be-almost-full-but-dont-relax-because-drought-will-come-again
• Richard Holden on capitol-assault-the-real-reason-trump-and-the-crowd-almost-killed-us-democracy
• Denis Muller on as-covid-rips-through-australia-is-scott-morrisons-media-strategy-starting-to-fail-as-well
• Jonathan Karnon et al on free-rapid-antigen-tests-makes-economic-sense-for-governments-our-analysis-shows
• Institutional economics on frydenberg-green-lights-an-independent

Northern America

• Zack Beauchamp on democracy-trump-january-6-capitol-riot-election-violence
• Menzie Chinn on latest-statistics-on-covid-19-hospitalizations-fatality-rates-and-speculation
• Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rackich on why-the-presidents-party-almost-always-has-a-bad-midterm
• the time of monsters on the-famous-and-the-unread
• Calculated Risk on questions-for-2022
• Daniel Cox on why-the-republican-party-isnt-concerned-with-popularity
• Ayman Ismail on january-6-capitol-riot-arrests-research-profile
• David Remnick on is-a-civil-war-ahead
• Brad De Long on i-cannot-believe-there-are-still-economists-riding-the-trump-train
• Stephen Reicher et al on capitol-assault-the-real-reason-trump-and-the-crowd-almost-killed-us-democracy
• Andrew Prokop on january-6-trump-2024-insurrection-election-big-lie
• Sean Illing on january-6-capitol-insurrection-conservatism-sam-adler-bell
• Nicole Lewis on insurrectionists-victims-banality-of-evil
• noahopinion on america-needs-immigration-to-grow-and-thrive
• Julia Azari on why-more-republicans-arent-outraged-by-jan-6

Europe

• Mainly Macro on the-evidence-and-consensus-among-economist-is-growing-over-time

Asia

• noahopinion on chinas-economic-woes-an-opportunity
• Tyler Cowen on is-the-beijing-consensus-collapsing

Wonk

• Brad De Long on south-african-omicron-mortality
• Tim Harford on buy-a-coal-mine-drive-a-gas-guzzler-and-other-uses-of-reverse-logic
• noahopinion on why-price-controls-are-a-bad-tool-for-fighting-inflation
• stumbling and mumbling on class-sympathy-solidarity
• the conversable economist on are-subtractions-underrated, how-personal-experience-leaves-a-mark
• Claire Collins on 4-plant-based-foods-to-eat-every-week-and-why-science-suggests-theyre-good-for-you
• Menzie Chinn on a-global-supply-chain-pressure-index
• Vincent Bevins on brazil-turns-lula-returns

General

• Vanessa Piroata on thar-she-blows-an-experts-guide-to-whale-watching-101

Climate

• David Appell on just-nice-chart
• Peter Sinclair on 2021-temperature-records-now-coming-in
• Andrew Freedman on earth-fifth-warmest-year

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• i-dont-want-crowd-peer-review-or-whatever-you-want-to-call-it-he-said-its-just-too-burdensome-and-id-rather-have-a-more-formal
  
• the-gullibility-connection-how-does-joe-rogan-and-more-generally-the-joe-rogans-in-the-media-decide-where-to-be-skeptical-and-where-to-be-credulous
  
• im-unhappy-to-report-that-i-anticipated-the-future
  
• what-works-in-a-talk-what-doesnt-work
  
• theranos-built-a-unicorn-and-we-just-built-a-better-horse-you-can-get-more-money-for-a-unicorn-even-though-or-especially-because-unicorns-dont-exist
  
• what-i-learned-from-teaching-online
  
• shreddergate-and-an-idea-for-a-museum-of-scholarly-misconduct
  
• statschat on asking-the-same-question
• Kaiser Fung on art-06-data, open-questions-of-the-pandemic-part-1

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on yield-curves-bridging-p-q-modeling, approximating-bayes-in-21st-century

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• a-final-installment-econ-books-in-2022
  
• the-deep-structure-of-the-knowledge-economy-or-25-years-of-weightlessness
  
• a-quarter-century-of-digital-thinking
  
• letting-the-red-wall-speak
  
• Unherd on ernst-junger-our-prophet-of-anarchy Thanks Tyler Cowen
• Susannah Patton on debating-alliance

Vox wonk

• rising-inflation-worrisome-not-reasons-you-think
  
• long-term-consequences-intra-household-endemic-respiratory-disease-spread
  
• comparing-online-person-meetings
  
• second-sanction-wave
  
• global-services-value-chains-new-path-development
  
• salary-history-and-employer-demand
  
• unemployment-risk-channel-business-cycle-fluctuations
  

Test Cricket

 Possibly the most enjoyable part of the pandemic is watching test cricket all over the world.

Here is my thinking.

India

Should be easily the most strongest team but is not. The major reason is that their much vaunted batting lineup is possibly over rated. Kohli for example has been poor for the last two years however they do have good young batsmen ready to take over from the veterans who appear to be past their best. Their bowling looks good more so if they discover a fast bowler. In the current series against South Africa they should be easily accounting for SA but are not.

New Zealand

They have a great team for home or England but lack bowlers when the pitch is flat. They in essence have no decent spinners. When their captain is injured they struggle. They just lost to Bangladesh which is a good thing for cricket but never should have occurred.

South Africa

They have a young side with a few experienced hands who are rarely consistent. Their fast medium bowlers are quite good and they have a potentially good allrounder. They do need a fast bowler and SA have never had a decent spinner in my lifetime.

West Indies

They are decimated by white cricket. All their talent goes in that direction and until someone can rectify this they will struggle in test cricket.

Pakistan

Pakistan always appears to have talented players but you always have the sneaking suspicion when they lose it is because they backed the other team. They do have one of the best batsman, some good fast bowlers and a good spinner and Wikkie. Perhaps the OZ tour to Pakistan will illuminate more on the team

Bangladesh

They recently best the Kiwis without their great allrounder. They certainly looked competent in all departments yet they lost easily to Pakistan at home. That is hard to reconcile

I might just add the commentary panels in SA are far superior to any other country

The fourth Test

 It appears only weather will save the poms!

Australia is highly over-rated. Starc cannot swing the ball and should not be a  problem for a test batsman. Lyon has been past his his best for a few seasons. ( I concur with the late Sid Barnes when he stated you could play an offspinner in Australia with a toothpick.) Richardson merely bowls fast medium outswingers and Boland simply bowls at military medium pace and does a bit with the ball. Only Cummins and Hazelwood are match winning bowlers yet we are up 3-0!

The poms techniques have been shown up. Stokes clearly needs match fitness. The bowlers have taken ages to bowl the right line and finally Root whilst a great batsman with the earth on his shoulders is a poor captain.

The poms should pick this team.

burns,

buttler,

Malan,

Root,

stokes ( c)

pope,

bairstow.

borthwick/livingstone My son says they are both in OZ at present

wood,

bess,

anderson,

do outlier polls tend to get it right

 A really interesting article entitled do-outlier-polls-tend-to-get-it-right written by someone  that Mark the Ballot has on his sidebar.

what subs to buy

 Hugh White writes a great article on comparing/contrasting nuke subs with conventional ones.

Linda Ronstadt

 The best version of her doing your no good with a great backing band.