Around the Traps 1/10/21

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on that-howl-of-despair-is-the-sound-of-housing-dreams-being-dashed
• James Ha on the-clock-is-ticking-on-net-zero-and-australias-farmers-must-not-get-a-free-pass
• Ross Gittins on budget-wisdom-keep-options-open-and-don't-cry-over-sunk-costs, we-wont-be-paying-back-government-debt-but-we-will-be-paying
• Jamie Pittock on the-hydropower-industry-is-talking-the-talk-but-fine-words-wont-save-our-last-wild-rivers
• Hugh Piper on australia-s-real-leverage-china-s-cpttp-bid
• renew economy on morrison-and-the-quad-just-committed-to-ending-coal-power-by-2040-at-the-latest, australias-biggest-battery-given-all-clear-after-tesla-megapack-fire-investigation, rooftop-pv-meets-84-pct-of-south-australia-demand-sends-operating-demand-to-new-low, nsw-aims-to-cut-emissions-in-half-by-2030-with-37-billion-clean-energy-surge, battery-storage-charges-up-for-big-switch-to-5-minute-settlements
• croaking cassandra on health-spending, vaccinations-by-age
• Bruce Mountain on your-household-power-bills-could-be-15-cheaper-if-australias-energy-regulator-was-doing-its-job
• Matt McDonald on the-nationals-signing-up-to-net-zero-should-be-a-no-brainer-instead-theyre-holding-australia-to-ransom
• Cath Moloney on aukus-and-nuclear-non-proliferation-regime
• Institutional Economics on why-bill-evans-is-wrong-on-the-inflation
• Graham Readfearn on scott-morrisons-marketing-suggests-australia-has-a-strong-track-record-on-emissions
• Nicole Hasham on no-barnaby-the-uk-energy-crisis-has-nothing-to-do-with-its-net-zero-target-and-to-suggest-otherwise-is-outrageous
• Hugh White on ssn-vs-ssk
• Kevin Bonham on tasmania-doesnt-swing-with-nation-like-it-used-to
• Stephen Mills on how-did-politicians-and-political-parties-get-my-mobile-number-and-how-is-that-legal
• Ravi Kewalram on wto-dispute-settlement-why-australia-bothers
• Parliamentary Library on Suicide

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on comments-on-august-new-home-sales, comments-on-house-prices
• Eric Kramer on what-goes-around-comes-around-election-theft-as-fair-play, for-enterprising-libertarians-the-war-on-the-war-on-covid-is-the-gift-that-keeps-on-giving
• the time of monsters on two-views-of-the-next-coup
• Sarah Posner on evangelicals-texas-georgia-voting-law-trump
• noahopinion on pass-the-damn-infrastructure-bill-dammit, what-happened-to-construction-productivity
• Rebecca Leber on gas-utilities-fight-electrification-preemption
• Fred Kaplan on biden-afghanistan-exit-troops-milley
• David Frum on five-challenges-could-trigger-trump-comeback
• Andrea Bernstein on trump-still-faces-a-reckoning-in-new-york
• Tyler Cowen on why-isnt-there-more-debate-over-the-biden-economic-plan

Europe

• Ian Kemish on dankesch-n-frau-merkel
• stumbling and mumbling on what-starmer-misses-the-c-word
• mainly macro on should-mpc-tighten-monetary-policy
• Andre Leslie on deciding-germanys-next-direction-world
• Daniel Merino and Gemma Ware on germany-election-winners-losers-and-how-the-greens-emerged-as-kingmakers-podcast

Asia

• Lavina Lee on with-vision-of-a-free-and-open-indo-pacific-quad-leaders-send-a-clear-signal-to-china
• Sitarah Mohammadi and Sajjad Askary on afghanistan-hazara-dread
• noahopinion on what-does-china-have-to-lose-from-a-real estate-crash
• Tony Walker on new-drives-to-counter-china-come-with-a-major-risk-throwing-fuel-on-the-indo-pacific-arms-race
• Aarti Betigeri on afpak-s-back-alright
• Philip Eliason on yemen-search-leverage-after-afghanistan
• Jonathan Pryke and Alexandre Dayant on china-s-declining-pacific-aid-presence
• Craig Mark on who-is-fumio-kishida-japans-new-prime-minister
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-evergrande-may-survive-but-for-its-executives-expect-a-fate-worse-than-debt
• Sojim Lim on north-korea-the-rise-and-rise-of-first-sister-kim-yo-jong
• Stania Puspawardhani on indonesia-painted-politics
• Purnendra Jain on meet-japan-s-new-pm
• 
  

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-el-salvador-exemplifies-the-surrealism-of-cryptocurrencies
• Phillipa Barr on whipping-covid-19-vaccine-market-shape
• Tim Harford on does-economics-have-a-problem-with-women
• the conversable economist on autonomous-vehicles-eeyore-speaks, bitcoins-remarkably-high-electricity-use
• Andrew Gregory and Sally Weale on covid-37-of-people-have-symptoms-six-months-after-infection
• Daniel Webster on meng-for-the-two-michaels-lessons-for-the-world-from-the-china-canada-prisoner-swap
• Lara Herrero on how-contagious-is-delta-how-long-are-you-infectious-is-it-more-deadly-a-quick-guide-to-the-latest-science
• stumbling and mumbling on the-minimum-wage-dilemma
• Ruth Yeazell on dickens-multitudes
• Macromania on eea-esem-panel-macroeconomic-consequences-of-the-pandemic
• Institutional Economics on a-geoeconomic-alliance-the-potential-and-limits-of-economic-statecraft

General

• Joyleen Christensen on from-bruce-lee-to-shang-chi-a-short-history-of-the-kung-fu-film-in-cinema
• Mark Taylor et al on what-is-dust-and-where-does-it-all-come-from
• Brian Resnik on james-webb-space-telescope-launch-date-december-science-hubble, webb-space-telescope-limitations-future-telescopes
• 
  

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on the-importance-of-reducing-methane-emissions
• Met Office on arctic-sea-ice-decline-continues-with-2021-the-12th-lowest-summer-minimum-extent-on-record
• noahopinion on climate-optimism-of-the-will
• Global Citizen on global-methane-pledge-aims-for-30%-cut
• David Appell on summer-land-temperatures-set-record, sea-level-rise-now-47-mmyear, another-1970s-exxon-scientist
• Open Mind on one-look-at-a-graph

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• why-some-important-findings-remain-uncited
  
• ivermectin-research-has-a-big-fraud-problem-scientists-say-numerous-studies-suggesting-ivermectin-can-treat-or-prevent-covid-19-have-dodgy-data-behind-them-according-to-an-international-group-of-r
  
• what-are-my-statistical-principles-2
  
• when-should-clinicians-act-on-non-statistically-significant-results-from-clinical-trials
  
• not-statistically-significant-is-not-the-same-as-zero
  
• zzzzzzzzzz
  
• the-problem-with-p-hacking-is-not-the-hacking-its-the-p
  
• your-projects-for-the-communicating-data-and-statistics-course
  
• harvard-behaving-badly
  
• cdc-as-bad-as-harvard-no-but-they-could-still-do-better
  
• statschat on nature-total-landscaping
• Kaiser Fung on do-vaccines-have-halo-effects

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• stoat on book-review-climate-shlock

vox wonk

• enemies-of-the-people
  
• patent-buyouts-can-help-win-race-against-coronavirus-mutations
  
• quantitative-easing-and-conventional-monetary-policy-have-similar-side-effects
  
• benefits-repaying
  
• evidence-environmental-risk-pricing-banks
  
• defying-odds-remittances-held-during-covid-19-pandemic
  
• cash-transfers-and-consumption-during-covid-19-pandemic
  
• revisiting-link-between-corporate-debt-overhang-and-investment
  
• demise-doing-business-goodhart-s-law-action
  
• effectiveness-ecb-euro-liquidity-lines
  
• covid-19-job-retention-schemes-and-productivity
  
• growing-global-spillovers-emerging-markets
  

Retirement looms

 My wife is a ( very good) high school science teacher and she reaches retirement age soon. So we were off to see a financial planner ( from Aware).

We learned a lot.  As a married couple we needed to reach a certain figure a year to be comfortable. My wife is on the old super scheme and gets a pension for life as a % of her last salary. We reached it before adding any dividends from our modest stock portfolio (much reduced from when we salary sacrificed into super) and a minimum allocated pension from my Super.

It seems it will be some time until it is safe for my wife to travel as she loves. She simply takes out a small lump sum from either super fund ( she has to have two as a teacher) to pay for it..

Thus at some stage over the next two years neither my wife nor I will be working.

A few different articles on climate change

 a pot pouri of articles on climate change

• Richard Holden who writes an easy to cut emissions ( a price on carbon is the best ) is public disclosure
• Matt McDonald wonders why the nationals are in opposition to zero emissions
• Bruce Mountain writes about energy bills could be much lower if the energy regulator did its job
• Michael Petterson talks about ice ages
• James Pittock on hydro power
• James Ha on climate chage and farmers
• evidence-environmental-risk-pricing-banks  from Vox wonk
  

Poll roundup

 I have been a bit slow on this but Kevin Bonham's thoughts are as important as ever.

He wonders why the resolve poll is diverging. As usual plenty of issues to think about.

what will the 4 states do?

 After all the hoo ha of the doherty plan which some people clearly either have not read or do not understand we should come to the 4 States who have been successful in combatting the delta variant. They actually have plenty of freedom at present. At some stage not clearly defined when the 80% target of people who have had the two doses of vaccine is achieved they have to open up.

At present NSW, (who is clearly responsible for the delta variant spreading hither and thither through their own ion competence), Victoria and Canberra all want to open up at the 80% level. They have everything to gain.

HOWEVER if you live in a state that is free from the delta variant opening up your state means people in your state acquiring the delta variant. Do any of these states want the repercussion frown that. The deaths, the amount of people getting long covid and the intense pressure on the hospital system the states have the responsibility for. ( Those very cynical amongst you might think ALP state governments could easily shift the blame to the federal government for this just when a federal election is due! )

Now all those 'conservative' commentators have all got stuck into Qld and WA but have completely ignored SA and Tasmania ( whose policies on covid are very similar to the former two states.. I for one will be very interested in those two governments plan to open up. SA has an election looming so that is the one to watch.)

Very interesting

Around the Traps 24/9/21

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark Kenny on fitzgibbon-is-quitting-politics-but-this-doesnt-mean-albanese-can-party
• Ian Lowe on yes-australia-is-buying-a-fleet-of-nuclear-submarines-but-nuclear-powered-electricity-must-not-come-next
• Jeo-Theong Chan on why-unions-support-vaccination-but-not-employer-mandates
• Phillippa Martya on people-dropped-whisky-into-their-noses-to-treat-spanish-flu-heres-what-else-they-took-that-would-raise-eyebrows-today
• Catherine Bennett and Hassan Vally on with-a-post-lockdown-victoria-in-sight-the-more-we-can-contain-transmission-now-the-easier-the-road-ahead
• Michelle Grattan on christian-porter-quits-cabinet-refusing-to-find-out-who-gave-him-money-for-legal-costs
• croaking cassandra on puzzling-over-the-new-zealand-macro-data, illusions-of-history
• Greg Jericho on unemployment-in-australia-only-45-wait-until-i-stop-laughing, australias-long-term-budget-looks-fine-but-something-important-is-missing-from-the-forecasts
• Albert Palazzo on when-you-re-hole-stop-digging-australia-and-nuke-sub-deal
• renew economy on records-smashed-as-renewables-break-through-60pct-coal-output-at-new-low, australias-energy-superpower-status-at-risk-with-grid-congestion-reforms, junk-credits-one-fifth-of-australian-carbon-offsets-could-be-hot-air-report-finds, regulator-takes-tesla-big-battery-to-court-for-failing-to-properly-back-up-broken-coal-plant, sun-cable-worlds-biggest-solar-and-battery-project-expands-again-gets-indonesia-approval, morrison-and-joyce-need-to-follow-the-trillions-shifting-to-zero-emissions
• Christopher Baker and Jodie McVernon on doherty-modelling-update-provides-the-goalposts-but-local-insights-will-determine-play
• Julian Elliott et al on heres-what-happens-when-youre-hospitalised-with-covid
• Josh Roose on its-almost-like-grooming-how-anti-vaxxers-conspiracy-theorists-and-the-far-right-came-together-over-covid
• Ross Gittins on timing-economy-to-fit-pandemic-election-is-a-tricky-business
• John Quiggin on australias-covid-plan-was-designed-before-we-knew-how-delta-would-hit-us
• Kevin Davis on australias-banks-got-188-billion-in-cheap-loans-from-the-rba-now-theyre-funding-share-buybacks
• Institutional Economics on who-broke-the-inflation-process
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-a-simple-way-to-cut-carbon-emissions-dont-let-polluters-hide
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-why-is-resolve-diverging
• Nick O'Malley on time-s-up-for-coal-inside-the-global-push-to-kill-our-dirtiest-fuel

Northern America

• the grumpy economist on inflation-debt-politics-and-insurance, debt-ceiling-modest-proposal-perpetuities, hope-for-california-housing-edition
• calculated risk on comments-on-august-housing-starts, comments-on-august-existing-home-sales
• Anna North on texas-abortion-law-2021-new-ban-bounty
• Kimberly Speers on canadas-status-quo-election-trudeau-returned-with-another-minority-faces-uncertain-future
• Michael Greenberg on new-york-after-cuomo
• Andrew Freedman on southwest-drought-record-worst-noaa
• German Lopez on covid-19-cases-rise-fall-florida-vaccines-weather
• the time of monsters on ostracise-john-eastman
• Umair Irfan on california-wildfires-2021-caldor-dixie-retreat-prescribed-burn
• Jeremy Stahl on the-arizona-election-audit-reveals-more-votes-for-biden-no-evidence-of-fraud

Europe

• Alexey Muraviev on after-aukus-russia-sees-a-potential-threat-and-an-opportunity-to-market-its-own-submarines
• Eglantine Staunton on aukus-france-s-strategic-outcry

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on motivations-for-economic-policies-in-western-china, summarizing-chinas-short-term-economic-outlook
• Henry Story on china-lonely-superpower
• noahopinion on chinas-real-estate-trilemma
• James Chin on why-is-southeast-asia-so-concerned-about-aukus-and-australias-plans-for-nuclear-submarines
• Amresh Gunasingham on myanmar-extreme-buddhist-nationalists
• Shaun Cameron on land-or-sea-thailand-perseveres-with-kra-canal
• Naoise Mcdonagh on can-china-model-be-accommodated-cptpp

Wonk

• Tim Harford on why-covid-regulations-may-be-around-longer-than-you-think
• noahopinion on us-vs-china-a-battle-of-ideas-not-militaries, a-failed-economic-theory-of-everything
• Daniel Davies on do-taxes-fund-spending
• stumbling and mumbling on capitalism-and-the-state, the-death-of-free-market-ideology
• Coppolla comment on jp-morgans-coffee-machine
• the conversable economist on the-world-bank-kills-its-doing-business-report
• Ian Hill on aukus-and-the-cptpp-it-s-all-about-china
• Ian Hall on explainer-what-exactly-is-the-quad-and-whats-on-the-agenda-for-their-washington-summit
• Tyler Cowen on how-economists-use-gdp-to-think
• Hamish McCallum on new-preliminary-evidence-suggests-coronavirus-jumped-from-animals-to-humans-multiple-times
• overmatter on the-november-story thanks Brad

General

• Shelby Ryan and Ryan Witt on curious-kids-why-do-sloths-go-slow
• Jonathon Baell on ivermectin-shows-us-how-hard-it-is-to-use-old-drugs-for-covid-heres-how-to-do-better-next-time

Climate

• David Appell on 5-trillion-tons-of-ice-lost-from-greenland
• Chen Zhao and Ruprrt Gladstone on scientists-still-dont-know-how-far-melting-in-antarctica-will-go-or-the-sea-level-rise-it-will-unleash
• Rachel Nolan et al on climate-change-is-testing-the-resilience-of-native-plants-to-fire-from-ash-forests-to-gymea-lilies
• Real Climate on the-definitive-co2-ch4-comparison-post
• Skeptical Science on can the economy not afford to fight climate change

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• for-a-research-assistant-do-you-think-there-is-an-ethical-responsibility-to-inform-your-supervisor-principal-investigator-if-they-change-their-analysis-plan-multiple-times-during-the-research-project
  
• more-on-the-epidemiologists-who-other-epidemiologists-dont-trust
  
• biographies-of-scientists-vs-biographies-of-authors
  
• albert-laszlo-barabasi-is-underpaid-by-a-lot
  
• more-on-that-claim-that-scientific-citations-are-worth-100000-each
  
• posteriordb-a-database-of-bayesian-posterior-inference
  
• designing-data-charts-from-communication-goals-to-graphics-design
  
• how-to-think-about-evil-thoughts-expressed-by-entertainers-on-news-shows
  

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• our-robot-overlords
  

Vox Wonk

• impact-trade-costs-can-be-weak-or-strong-depending-how-much-countries-trade
  
• teams-become-more-productive-when-their-hours-are-shorter
  
• skill-biased-technological-change-and-demographic-composition-us-military
  
• economic-integration-democratic-capital-and-export-democracy
  
• intellectual-property-rights-and-wage-inequality
  
• lasting-impact-covid-crisis-economic-potential
  
• why-tax-havens-may-bias-productivity-measurement
  
• can-china-s-outsized-real-estate-sector-amplify-delta-induced-slowdown
  
• covid-19-and-continued-labour-reallocation-productive-and-tech-savvy-firms
  
• enemies-people
  
• patent-buyouts-can-help-win-race-against-coronavirus-mutations
  

China and evergrande

 Here are a few people writing on this that are interesting

• Brad De Long   ( mainly a podcast but great references
• Kenneth Rogoff    ( more general of real estate than to Evergrande)
• Steve from Brisbane. Both general and about Evergrande.

I don't think this a Lehmann bros moment. I very much doubt if financial contagion would occur as exposure to Evergrande is limited.

I expect Evergrande will get through this through a variety of measures as they are in essence too big to fail. If 'allowed' to fail it would have devastating affects on the Chinese economy and thus the current leadersip..

However the current chinese leadership have proved quite adroit in engaging in failure when success looked all but inevitable.  'wolf warrior leadership anyone. Is what is occurring now simply a limited variation of a modern great leap forward or cultural revolution? We live in interesting times

the Victorian debacle

 I can't say I have much to add to what Steve from Brisbane has said on this.

I am somewhat bemused to see and hear a lot of law and order advocates apologise for the violence in these demonstrations. Those in the building industry in Melbourne had been in a privileged position. That they have allowed anti-vaxxers and rabid nazi sympathisers to dominate the demonstration is disgraceful.

It does show we do have our share of not only idiots but very selfish idiots in Australia.

renewables create new records

 Renew Economy reports on the records created by renewable energy.

This is good . A record on the weekend and then broken on the monday when business is back.

However let us be realistic. It will be better if records are broken once lockdowns are over and the economy is back to normal.

AUKUS

 Well a new 'alliance'.

Here are some comments:

• Alexander Gillespie
• John Blaxland
• Sam Roggeveen
• Patricia O'Brien
• Michelle Grattan

A few comments. ANZUS meant we were always close to the USA. We went to Iraq because of it. It has not made us closer it has merely made it explicit.

There is more to this than nuclear subs.

nuclear cubs go further than diesel powered ones but cannot be silent like them.

The nuclear reactors are with the sub for its lifetime. When the sub is no longer in use it is discarded and not with us.

 

big problem is we have not signed a contract thus we do not know the cost and we also do not how much we pay the French Also our communication of the deal was less than ideal.

See HERE for example

Around the Traps 17/9/21

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ricardian Ambivalence on the-rbas-other-taper , lowes-watershed-speech
• Greg Jericho on whether-on-covid-or-climate-it-seems-our-politicians-really-arent-like-you-and-me, australias-climate-failures-are-costing-its-economy-and-scott-morrisons-government-is-being-blamed, australias-house-prices-are-disconnected-from-reality-and-the-rba-wants-you-to-know-it-isnt-to-blame
• Julian Waters-Lynch on why-cant-australia-make-mrna-vaccines-because-we-dont-make-enough-deep-technology-companies
• Amaalie Dyda on nsw-and-victoria-admit-they-wont-get-back-to-covid-zero-what-does-this-mean-for-a-fractured-australia
• James Laurenson on why-pushing-for-an-economic-alliance-with-the-us-to-counter-chinese-coercion-would-be-a-mistake
• Albert Palazzo on risks-versus-opportunities-national-security-thinking
• Amalie Dyda on nsw-and-victoria-admit-they-wont-get-back-to-covid-zero-what-does-this-mean-for-a-fractured-australia
• Peter Wark and Lucy Morgan on were-two-frontline-covid-doctors-heres-what-we-see-as-case-numbers-rise
• renew economy on snowy-2-0-hit-by-another-blow-out-in-costs-and-consumers-will-foot-the-bill, australias-breakthrough-solar-tech-has-eye-on-rooftop-and-mega-project-markets, battery-storage-will-force-us-to-rethink-network-tariffs-and-structures
• Peter Martin on delta-is-tempting-us-to-trade-lives-for-freedoms-a-choice-it-had-looked-like-we-wouldnt-have-to-make
• Michelle Grattan on doctors-and-farmers-turn-up-heat-on-morrison-ahead-of-glasgow
• C Raina McIntyre on nsw-risks-a-second-larger-covid-peak-by-christmas-if-it-eases-restrictions-too-quickly
• Richard Holden on were-doing-well-despite-delta-but-3-major-economic-challenges-loom
• Jeff Borland on just-4-5-jobless-during-lockdowns-the-unemployment-rate-is-now-meaningless
• Alexander Gillespie on anzus-without-nz-why-the-new-security-pact-between-australia-the-uk-and-us-might-not-be-all-it-seems
• John Blaxland on why-nuclear-submarines-are-a-smart-military-move-for-australia-and-could-deter-china-further
• Patricia O'Brien on the-aukus-pact-born-in-secrecy-will-have-huge-implications-for-australia-and-the-region
• Sam Roggeveen on how-nuclear-subs-could-transform-australia-its-alliance-and-asia
• Croaking Cassandra on tightening-lvr-restrictions

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on the-rapid-increase-in-rents, cleveland-fed-key-measures-of-inflation, household-formation-drives-housing
• Jordan Weismann on biden-vaccine-mandate-right-call-5-reasons
• noahopinion on the-911-era-is-over-good, guest-post-vic-bradley-on-critical
• Beth Mole on unvaccinated-are-5x-more-likely-to-catch-delta-11x-more-likely-to-die Thanks Brad
• David Reifschneider and David Wilcox on another reason to raise the Fed's inflation target thanks Brad
• the time of monsters on robert-e-lee-loses-again Thanks Brad
• Dylan Mathews on cost-deaths-war-on-terror-afghanistan-iraq-911
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-conservatives-abortion-constitution-roe-wade
• the conversable economist on how-poverty-changed-in-2020-mixed-measures
• Andrew Prokop on newsom-wins-california-recall-elder
• Molly Omstead on human-interest/2021/09/lee-greenwood-bible-christian-publishing
• Bryan Caplan on why-are-there-zero-republican-mega-cities Thanks Tyler
• The time of monsters on coup-and-countercoup

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on the-politics-of-abstraction
• Mainly Macro on three-myths-about-johnsons-social-care-package
• John Sexton on  sunk-france-cries-outrage-over-snubbed-subs

Asia

• Colin Christiansen on fears-china-will-play-games-2022-winter-olympics
• Rodger Shanahan on iran-s-energy-diplomacy
• Julian Droogan and Malcolm Choat on the-talibans-rule-threatens-whats-left-of-afghanistans-dazzlingly-diverse-cultural-history
• Menzie Chinn on more-on-the-china-slowdown
• Yun Chang and Collin Koh on us-engagement-southeast-asia-how-much-will-be-enough
• Khang Vu on north-korea-s-calculated-restraint

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-is-policy-effective-at-promoting-the-international-role-of-the-renminbi
• Lydia Khalil on many-consequences-clear-blue-day-11-september-2001
• Tim Harford on from-the-clinical-trial-to-role-playing-games-why-do-some-ideas-arrive-so-late
• Eric Kramer on criticizing-covid-policy-is-fine-but-you-need-to-roll-up-your-sleeves-and-do-some-policy-analysis
• the conversable economist on the-covid-instant-experts
• the grumpy economist on inflation-in-shadow-of-debt
• noahopinion on its-time-for-variant-specific-boosters
• argmin on effect-size Thanks Tyler Cowen

General

• A J Mitchell on how-do-nuclear-powered-submarines-work-a-nuclear-scientist-explains

Climate

• Kim Heacox on greenland-ice-sheet-melting-fridtjof-nansen
• Douglas Eliffe and Lindsay Mathews on we-managed-to-toilet-train-cows-and-they-learned-faster-than-a-toddler-it-could-help-combat-climate-change
• Kewei Lyu et al on how-much-will-our-oceans-warm-and-cause-sea-levels-to-rise-this-century-weve-just-improved-our-estimate
• Oliver Milman on governments-falling-short-paris-climate-pledges-study
• Christina Schallenberg et al on smoke-from-the-black-summer-fires-created-an-algal-bloom-bigger-than-australia-in-the-southern-ocean
• and Then Theres Physics on the-effect-of-permafrost-on-the-zec

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• whats-the-best-way-to-interact-with-a-computer-do-we-want-conversations-or-do-we-want-to-poke-it-like-a-thing
  
• progress-3
  
• public-opinion-on-vaccine-mandates-etc
  
• as-you-all-know-first-prize-is-a-cadillac-el-dorado-anyone-wanna-see-second-prize-second-prize-is-youre-governor-of-california-third-prize-is-youre-fired
  
• the-bayesian-cringe
  
• breaking-benfords-law-violations-in-california-hollywood-tv-and-movie-franchises-have-some-splainin-to-do
  
• reassessing Nate Silver's claim
• wanna-bet-a-covid-19-example
  
• comparing-collaborative-to-non-collaborative-research
  
• Kaiser Fung on the-children, the-unexpected-gift-of-a-well-conducted-study

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• unwound
  
• Institutional economics on market-monetarism-10-years-on

Vox Wonk

• wage-setting-macroeconomic-policy
  
• labour-market-implications-economic-uncertainty
  
• equity-premium-predictability-over-business-cycle
  
• impact-covid-19-global-production
  
• what-drives-house-prices-some-lessons-literature
  
• financial-innovation-today-and-tomorrow
  
• ripple-effects-monetary-policy
  
• successful-democracies-breed-their-own-support
  
• carbon-tax-cross-border-carbon-leakage-and-border-tax-adjustments
  
• fostering-fintech-financial-transformation
  

The OECD and the RBA

 The OECD has released a report ( actually you cannot read it until the 24th ( grrr). HERE is a report on the report. I do like most of what they allegedly say however

Amongst other things they say the RBA should have a review. I do agree with that.

Here is Ricardian Ambivalence's  thoughts on Lowe's latest speech.

The RBA like many Central Bank has a problem of raising inflation. It has failed miserably during Lowe's term as governor. I suspect measures needed are not what the RBA can do as discussed yesterday.

A review of institutions are regularly needed. There should be one of the RBA.

Christian Porter is a disgrace

 Yesterday we had the extraordinary explanation from Christian Porter that some ( most??) of the legal fees incurred when he sued the ABC was paid by a trust and he claims he does not know the people involved. See HERE for an explanation.

Porter is thus owing a debt to people who helped him out of a large financial hole. Malcolm Turnbull completes the rest for us.

Porter sued the ABC believing the antiquated libel law which HE did not reform would enable a large financial compensation. However once he learned of their defence he folded  like a pack of cards. Much worse he ensured with the court's help no-one would learn of their defence. We can only assume it was devastating.

He is now in debt to unknown  people ( does anyone really believe he not know who they are) for a very poor decision. The question is of course whether any of these people will ever call in their debt ??

The ABC should be reviewing which people of the law they pay. clearly they paid out money they did not need to given its defence.

Hugh Riminton joins in 

how to boost inflation

 Inflation has undershot its targets for most Central banks. what can we do to boost inflation back to more appropriate levels.

Use Wage setting as two academics recomend for the EU. It has implications for us in OZ as most would realise.

A few comments on Australian Polity

 Let us first go to NSW. aunty gladys will not have any more daily press conferences now  because she has work to do. Um press conferences is part of your job. We the public need to know what is happening as the peak arrives. Particularly in relation to hospitals and where they are capable of meeting the demand. suspicions arose because auntie gladys does not like questions asked about her former lover and ICAC inquiries. Chris Minns is looking sooo   lucky every day.

Still in NSW the ALP are parachuting Kristina Keneally into the safe ALP seat of Fowler. Apparently a young female lawyer ( you got me there is no such thing as lawyers in OZ) of Vietnamese heritage looked good for pre-selection. I have never seen any desirable qualities in Keneally. She was soso as Premier and was a poor candidate in the Bennelong by-election. As an example she lived only a short distance from the electorate yet got attacked by the Liberals for not being a local when John Alexander was living in the Eastern Suburbs. If she is such a great candidate why is the pre-selection ballot being suspended? Indeed if she is such a red hot candidate why is she not no 1 on the Senate ticket?

Still in NSW Joel Fitzgibbon is retiring. good riddance I say. He is a luddite on climate policy and we should NEVER forget the ALP did everything he asked in the Upper Hunter by-election and the ALP suffered a swing against them. McKay got the blame and Fitzgibbon continued to complain without ever manning up to his own massive errors.

We got further confirmation of government complacency on the vaccines. Tudge said all the e-mails told of another story but said the government would not release them hence no-one believed him at all.

Around the Traps 10/9/21

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andrew Weat and Keiren Meagher on climate-change-means-australia-may-have-to-abandon-much-of-its-farming
• Madeline Taylor and Tina Hunter on australias-first-offshore-wind-farm-bill-was-a-long-time-coming-but-here-are-4-reasons-its-not-up-to-scratch-yet
• Prina Levine and Narelle Morris on court-gives-legal-weight-to-academics-right-to-intellectual-freedom-but-its-not-the-final-word
• Ross Gittins on smaller-government-turns-out-to-be-penny-wise-pound-foolish
• renew economy on news-corp-hasnt-seen-the-light-on-climate-theyre-just-updating-their-tactics, green-hydrogen-could-help-solve-the-puzzle-of-getting-to-100-pct-renewables, south-australia-to-be-first-gigawatt-scale-grid-to-meet-all-demand-with-rooftop-solar, 95-per-cent-of-australias-coal-must-remain-in-ground-to-meet-global-climate-targets, how-carbon-lobbyists-control-the-climate-policy-debate-in-australia
• Greg Jericho on australias-carbon-emissions-have-barely-fallen-and-a-massive-task-lies-ahead, the-rba-has-not-raised-interest-rates-for-130-months-and-history-suggests-low-rates-are-here-to-stay, things-are-not-as-they-should-be-in-australia-but-will-normal-ever-return-after-covid
• Marion Terrill on of-australias-32-biggest-infrastructure-projects-just-eight-had-a-public-business-case
• Amalie Dyda on what-is-life-going-to-look-like-once-we-hit-70-vaccination
• Karen Willis and Natasha Smallwood on living-with-covid-looks-very-different-for-front-line-health-workers-who-are-already-exhausted
• Ann Twomey on explainer-do-the-states-have-to-obey-the-covid-national-plan
• ricardo ambivalence on rba-puts-it-into-neutral-with-44, nz-dodges-delta-rbnz-on-track-for-6oct-hike
• Brendan Sargeant on matching-strategic-and-defence-policy-climate-challenge
• Institutional Economics on what-is-three-months-of-forward-guidance
• Rebecca Welsh and Keiran Hardy on before-9-11-australia-had-no-counter-terrorism-laws-now-we-have-92-but-are-we-safer
• Donald Rothwell on should-australia-recognise-a-taliban-government
• John Quiggin on yes-it-is-entirely-possible-for-australia-to-phase-out-thermal-coal-within-a-decade, what-about-other-avoidable-deaths
• Warwick Jones on policing-national-security-911
• Frank Jotsko and Mark Howden on a-promising-new-dawn-is-ours-for-the-taking-so-lets-stop-counting-the-coal-australia-must-leave-in-the-ground
• Katie Atwell on vaccine-passports-are-coming-to-australia-how-will-they-work-and-what-will-you-need-them-for
• Ben Scott on anzus-and-trumpism
• Edmond Roy on afghan-test-leaves-australia-s-principles-wanting
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-greens-super-profits-tax-idea-could-end-up-burning-muscle-not-fat

Northern America

• Open Mind on anti-vaxxers-anti-maskers-its-your-fault
• Galen Druke et al on what-texass-abortion-ban-could-mean-for-the-rest-of-the-country
• Grant Wyeth on trouble-trudeau
• Anna Wiener on gavin-newsom-and-the-golden-states-recall-fever
• Michael Tesler on americans-have-a-long-history-of-opposing-refugees-but-most-support-afghan-asylum-seekers
• the conversable economist on the-us-labor-market-struggles-to-reorient
• New Deal Democrat on the-unemployment-rate-is-not-uniquely-overestimating-the-true-employment-situation

Europe

• Mainly Macro on is-creating-worker-shortages-by-low-wage-immigration-a-good-idea
• Peter Dorman on norways-climate-dilemma

Asia

• Sebastian Maslow and Paul O'Shea on japan-why-pm-suga-unexpectedly-stepped-down-and-what-happens-next
• Jennifer Hsu on rich-hot-and-popular-taming-chinese-celebrities
• Scott Lucas on afghanistan-the-warlords-who-will-decide-whether-civil-war-is-likely
• Alan MacGillivaray on turbulence-taliban-and-turkey-s-role-afghanistan-s-future
• Tom Corben on japan-s-nuclear-identity-and-its-complicated-endgame
• Rabbett run on chinas-problem-is-rate-of-change-maybe-not-the-direction-of-change
• Amira Jadoon et al  on evolving-taliban-isk-rivalry
• Evan Freidin on china-s-digital-currency-takes-shape
• Hanif Sufizada on minerals-drugs-and-china-how-the-taliban-might-finance-their-new-afghan-government

Wonk

• Tim Harford on the-secret-to-preventing-killer-heatwaves-isnt-what-you-think
• Coppolla comment on jp-morgans-coffee-machine
• noahopinion on people-are-realizing-that-degrowth-is-bad, the-shouting-class-2-last-refuge-of-scoundrels
• the conversable economist on a-career-vs-a-job, when-business-leaders-endorse-stakeholder-responsibility-what-are-they-really-saying
• Phillipa Barr on blockchain-solution-covid-19-vaccine-scams
• Nathan Bartlett on why-are-we-seeing-more-covid-cases-in-fully-vaccinated-people-an-expert-explains
• David Oswald et al on 9-11-conspiracy-theories-debunked-20-years-later-engineering-experts-explain-how-the-twin-towers-collapsed
• Tony Walker on 20-years-after-9-11-the-american-colossus-has-gone-and-the-middle-east-remains-strife-torn
• kids prefer cheese on is-behavioral-economics-dead-should-it-be

General

• Catherine Froelich et al on photos-from-the-field-why-losing-these-tiny-loyal-fish-to-climate-change-spells-disaster-for-coral

Climate

• James Purtill on climate-change-solution-electrify-everything
• Caroline Wainwright on longer-dry-spells

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• its-not-an-echo-chamber-but-its-an-echo-chamber-how-does-that-work-exactly
  
• we-were-wrong-about-redistricting
  
• why-did-bill-gates-say-this-about-bad-blood
  
• whats-the-difference-between-xkcd-and-freakonomics
  
• Kaiser Fung on primer-on-regression-adjustments-1, primer-on-regression-adjustments-2, round-2-10-ways-to-rank-the-rio-summer-olympics, primer-on-regression-adjustments-3
• statschat on briefly, compared-to-what

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on insurance and discrimination what role for actuaries

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• actually-ai
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Croaking Cassandra on ussr-russia-and-china

Vox Wonk

• efficiency-and-equity-socially-embedded-economy
  
• historical-legacies-shaping-2021-peruvian-presidential-election
  
• downton-abbey-effect-british-aristocrats-american-brides
  
• why-real-wages-are-stagnating-japan-and-korea
  
• what-s-worth-knowing-economics-global-survey-among-economists
  
• design-climate-change-policies-needs-internalise-political-realities
  
• euro-area-s-covid-19-recession
  
• what-35-million-french-firms-can-tell-us-about-efficiency-covid-19-support-measures
  
• mortgage-rates-origination-fees-and-transmission-monetary-policy
  
• firm-heterogeneity-and-college-wage-gap-japan
  

what about other avoidable deaths

 John Quiggin has written about this today.  highly recommended. Remember all those people dying frorm the flu. We fixed that. We can fix other ways as well!

Lockdown proving a problem now at home

To much serious stuff so let be be light hearted today.

 I have said previously I do like lockdowns however in my household it is proving a problem.

My wife is a school teacher indeed a very good one and is teaching via zoom as well as having meetings as well. My youngest son works in the city but has to work from home. He has regular monday meetings ( doesn't everyone) and has to use the phone a lot.

My oldest son works in the social welfare field and when he has to work at home ( not a lot) he has to use the phone quite a bit as well.

We have a virtual home office downstairs which my youngest son claims most of the time. My wife therefore has to do most of her teaching upstairs. 

This means we have to know when people have meetings and phone calls. Sometimes these times clash. This is usually resolved by the person having a short call going outside but it is becoming a problem.

On the positive side costs are well down and we all have dinner at a very reasonable time.

moar on the National plan

 Still trying to work out the National plan.

From the superb the conversation site here are some pertinent articles all from a different perspective.

• what-is-life-going-to-look-like-once-we-hit-70-vaccination
  
• living-with-covid-looks-very-different-for-front-line-health-workers-who-are-already-exhausted
  
• explainer-do-the-states-have-to-obey-the-covid-national-plan
  

The National plan examined plus a bit more

 How many times have you heard about the national plan? Do you understand the assumptions behind it?

I am here to help.

• The Australia Institute
• The Health Report

The Doherty report assumes vaccinations and test trace isolate and quarantine play an equal role in ' living with the virus.' However the TTIQ takes no account of the new delta variant. Quite clearly Delta moves so fast TTIQ is very problematic. Just look at NSW in a lockdown Moreover there will be a lot of pressure on hospitals as we also know in NSW ( in a lockdown).. It is easy to convert wards into ICU wards BUT ICU wards need one nurse per patient and the nurses are highly trained and this takes a lot of time to take effect.

I am unsure some politicians have actually read through the 'national plan'. This is not a criticism of the model because all models are hostage to the assumptions made

Related to this is Andrew Gelman on there-are-no-equal-opportunity-infectors-epidemiological-modelers-must-rethink-our-approach-to-inequality-in-infection-risk

Also related is this on Vox wonk mask-mandates-save-lives

the rolling bones live

 The rolling bones were a vastly over rated group ( the Beatles more so.) The Yardbirds, the Jeff Becck group, the Who were much better groups to name but three however there are times when they can rock and this is one.

They are going to tour again and some are 80. Embarrassing. Even here most of them are anything but chick magnets. Okay they re ugly as my wife attests.

Around the Traps 3/9/21

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Ausssie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ricardian Ambivalence on the-q3-retail-crash, q2-gdp-a-bit-better-than-it-looked
• Tim Nelson on as-the-world-battles-to-slash-carbon-emissions-australia-considers-paying-dirty-coal-stations-to-stay-open-longer
• Laura Schuijers on bushfire-survivors-just-won-a-crucial-case-against-the-nsw-environmental-watchdog-putting-other-states-on-notice
• Claire Higgins on theres-a-way-to-get-refugees-out-of-afghanistan-after-this-weeks-deadline-if-the-taliban-agrees
• Stephen Duckett and Anika Stobart on national-cabinet-leaves-us-in-the-dark-about-reopening-the-nation-so-were-left-joining-the-dots
• Ben Scott on sharpening-deterrence
• Ross Gittins on smaller-government-push-explains-much-of-our-pandemic-fumbling, if-you-want-to-shop-in-competitive-markets-you-will-have-to-fight-for-it
• Kevin Bonham on a-record-begging-to-be-broken
• Greg Jericho in sydneys-covid-outbreak-and-job-losses-muddy-the-political-waters-for-scott-morrison, australias-economy-looks-better-than-a-year-ago-but-sadly-we-arent-out-of-the-covid-woods-yet
• Croaking Cassandra on reading-michael-cullen, borders
• Scott Hamilton and Stuart Kells on robber-barons-and-high-speed-traders-dominate-australias-water-market
• Ann Kavanagh et al on opening-up-when-80-of-eligible-adults-are-vaccinated-wont-be-safe-for-all-australians
• renew economy on sun-cable-worlds-biggest-solar-and-battery-project-is-about-to-get-a-lot-bigger, aemos-improved-reliability-forecast-is-damming-indictment-of-taylors-coalkeeper-push, offshore-wind-set-for-take-off-in-australia-as-legislation-tabled-in-parliament, turf-wars-in-the-energy-transition-over-who-gets-to-own-battery-storage
• Peter Martin on my-super-fund-just-failed-the-apra-performance-test-whats-next
• Emma Shortis on the-anzus-treaty-does-not-make-australia-safer-rather-it-fuels-a-fear-of-perpetual-military-threat
• Dennis Muller on how-ghost-train-fire-exposed-remarkable-police-corruption-yet-also-failed-abcs-high-journalistic-standards
• Shaun Carney on albaneses-small-target-strategy-may-give-labor-a-remarkable-victory-or-yet-more-heartbreak
• Peter Martin on four-gdp-graphs-that-show-how-well-australia-was-doing-before-delta-hit
• John Quiggin on do-vaccination-passports-take-away-freedoms-it-depends-on-how-you-frame-the-question
• Sam Roggeveen on will-anzus-make-it-80
• Institutional Economics on australian-stocks-for-the-long-run
• Paul Williams on the-george-christensen-formula-how-do-maverick-mps-succeed-in-australian-politics
• Michelle Gratten on the-transition-to-living-with-endemic-covid-could-be-rough
• James Bowen on australia-s-potential-green-hydrogen-superpower
• James Goldrick on australia-s-essential-need-not-seaborne-trade-seaborne-supply
• Matt Saunders and Rchard Dennis on Doherty-modelling-TTIQ-assumption

Northern America

• Geoffrey Skelley on bidens-declining-approval-rating-is-not-just-about-afghanistan
• Calculated Risk on housing-inventory-is-key-metric-in-2021
• Mary Radcliffe et al on vaccine-hesitancy-is-still-strong-in-many-covid-19-battered-states
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-abortion-texas-sb8-jackson-roe-wade-greg-abbott, supreme-court-abortion-texas-sb8-whole-womans-health-jackson-roe-wade
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-texas-roe-wade-silence
• David Frum on responsible-gun-ownership-is-a-lie
• Allahpundit on mccarthy-threatens-telecoms-republicans-will-remember-if-you-turn-over-records-to-the-january-6-committee
• Jon Anderson on is-the-us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-the-end-of-the-american-empire
• noahopinion on why-is-the-squad-attacking-jerome-powell
• Laura Brunner on which-senators-and-representatives-vote-in-favor-of-democracy
• Eric Posner on decline-of-conservative-free-market-economics Thanks Brad
• Jet Heer on the-establishments-afghanistan-myths , madison-cawthorns-threatThanks Brad
• the conversable economist on a-medicare-funding-warning-from-the-trustees

Europe

• Ian Hill on lukashenko-running-empty

Asia

• Tony Walker on kabul-bombings-a-dark-day-for-afghanistan-and-joe-biden-and-a-harbinger-of-worse-to-come
• Amira Jadoon and Andrew Mines on what-is-isis-k-two-terrorism-experts-on-the-group-behind-the-deadly-kabul-airport-attack-and-its-rivalry-with-the-taliban
• Jahannes Nugroho on will-jokowi-pull-three-peat
• noahopinion on revolution-afghanistan-asia, chinas-profound-transformation-is-not-so-profound
• Craig Keating on thai-lives-matter-too
• Aristyo Darmawan on deliberate-ambiguity-china-s-new-territorial-waters-declaration
• Yara Hawari on palestinian-authority-crackdown-protest-israeli
• Loro Horta on europe-and-south-china-sea
• Sayed Kashua on my-palestinian-diaspora
• Daron Acemoglu on afghanistan-top-down-state-building-failed-again Thanks Brad

Wonk

• Seamus Coffey on the-us-keeps-dodging-the-reputational-bullets
• run 75441 on why-washing-your-hands-and-social-distancing-works
• the conversable economist on harold-demsetz-dissecting-the-nirvana-viewpoint, chesterton-the-old-man-is-always-wrong-and-the-young-people-are-always-wrong-about-what-is-wrong-with-him
• noahopinion on towards-the-abolition-of-animal-farming
• Menzie Chinn on do-central-banks-rebalance-their-currency-shares-2
• Mainly Macro on is-it-true-that-anything-we-can-afford
• Uneasy Money on the-walras-marshall-divide-in-neoclassical-economics-part-ii

General

• Tim Harford on resist-the-temptation-to-overachieve-on-holiday
• Lorenzo Spina on a-quarter-of-sun-like-stars-eat-their-own-planets-according-to-new-research
• Hannah Schunker and David Pontin on curious-kids-why-is-the-suns-atmosphere-hotter-than-its-surface
• Julien Louys et al on research-reveals-humans-ventured-out-of-africa-repeatedly-as-early-as-400-000-years-ago-to-visit-the-rolling-grasslands-of-arabia

Climate

• Open Mind on 3-graphs, hurricane-ida-climate-change-makes-a-monster-storm
• Stoat on the-problem-with-nordhaus
• and Then Theres Physics on a-methane-emergency, implications-for-mitigating-methane-emissions-in-agriculture
• Climate Citizen on Australias-deception-about-its-lulucf
• Marisa Stone et al on rotting-forest-wood-releases-a-whopping-10-9-billion-tonnes-of-carbon-each-year-this-will-increase-under-climate-change
• Skeptical Science on here is what makes a new Amazon study so unnnerving
• Desmog on academics-electric-vehicles-petrol-diesel-cars
• Xubin Zeng on is-climate-change-to-blame-for-extreme-weather-events-attribution-science-says-yes-for-some-heres-how-it-works

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• instead-of-comparing-two-posterior-distributions-just-fit-one-model-including-both-possible-explanations-of-the-data
  
• a-study-comparing-young-and-middle-aged-adults-who-got-covid-to-similarly-aged-people-who-were-vaccinated
  
• more-on-elites-and-outsiders
  
• he-was-fooled-by-randomness-until-he-replicated-his-study-and-put-it-in-a-multilevel-framework-then-he-saw-what-was-not-going-on
  
• adjusting-for-stratification-and-clustering-in-coronavirus-surveys
  
• martin-modraks-tutorial-on-simulation-based-calibration
  
• there-are-no-equal-opportunity-infectors-epidemiological-modelers-must-rethink-our-approach-to-inequality-in-infection-risk
  
• simulation-based-calibration-some-challenges-and-directions-for-future-research
  
• losing-one-nights-sleep-may-increase-risk-factor-for-alzheimers-study-says
  
• statschat on up-or-down-2, a-step-forward-for-genomic-based-medicine

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on extreme-weather-and-macroeconomy

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• heroines-of-science
  
• governing-badly-in-a-crisis
  
• a-most-unhappy-soap-opera
  
• Andrew Gelman on counterfactual-history-and-historical-fiction
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• impact-covid-19-firms-and-role-vaccines-recovery-expectations
  
• declining-capital-formation-japan-and-role-intangibles
  
• platform-regulation-lessons-utility-industries
  
• global-weather-disruptions-food-commodity-prices-and-economic-activity
  
• labour-adjustment-and-productivity-dynamics
  
• reduced-rd-investments-potential-flip-side-immigration
  
• immigration-and-natives-exposure-covid-related-risks-eu
  
• ecb-strategy-2021-review-and-its-future
  
• mask-mandates-save-lives