Around the Traps 30/4/21

 It is time for Around the traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on australia-has-wasted-so-many-years-when-it-comes-to-climate-change
• Leslie Hughes and Will Steffen on spot-the-difference-as-world-leaders-rose-to-the-occasion-at-the-biden-climate-summit-morrison-faltered
• Dennis Muller on 10-years-after-finkelstein-media-accountability-in-australia-has-gone-backwards
• Kevin Bonham on whats-this-then-commissioned-poll
• renew economy on morrison-finds-shameless-new-way-to-fake-climate-action-as-world-steps-up, battery-of-the-world-australias-key-role-in-fast-transition-to-wind-and-solar, wind-and-solar-deliver-stunning-price-demand-and-emissions-falls-in-main-grid, aemc-dumps-do-no-harm-rule-to-end-chaotic-response-to-system-strength-issues, esb-outlines-preferred-market-options-to-handle-accelerating-shift-to-renewables
• Samantha Hepburn on this-1-billion-energy-deal-promises-to-cut-emissions-and-secure-jobs-so-why-on-earth-is-gas-included
• Ivan Hanigan et al on more-people-die-in-winter-than-summer-but-climate-change-may-see-this-reverse
• Carissa Bonner and Racheal Todd on here-are-9-ways-we-can-make-it-easier-for-australians-to-get-the-covid-19-vaccine
• Ross Gittins on morrisons-budget-task-stop-economys-roar-turning-into-a-meow
• Liz Hicks on the-crisis-in-india-is-a-terrifying-example-of-why-we-need-a-better-way-to-get-australians-home
• Michael Toole on more-than-a-dozen-covid-leaks-in-6-months-to-protect-australians-its-time-to-move-quarantine-out-of-city-hotels
• Andrew Podger on is-australias-retirement-income-system-delivering-on-its-potential Thanks Peter Whiteford
• Institutional Economics on the-lowe-gap-revisited
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-3-economic-facts-point-to-a-big-spending-federal-budget
• Simon Sawyer on government-demands-for-arbitrary-performance-targets-are-contributing-to-ambulance-delays-paramedic-exhaustion
• Tony Walker on australia-would-be-wise-not-to-pound-war-drums-over-taiwan-with-so-much-at-stake
• Peter Martin on top-economists-back-budget-push-for-an-unemployment-rate-beginning-with-4
• croaking cassandra on economic-coercion, central-bank-independence

Northern America

• Barkley Rosser on bellwether-bullard-versus-sirenic
• run 75441 on politics-of-denialism
• John Quiggin on republicans-and-the-end-of-hard-neoliberalism
• the conversable economist on amazon-and-value-creation-bezos-farewell
• Nathaniel Rakich on congressional-republicans-left-office-in-droves-under-trump-just-how-conservative-are-their-replacements
• Macromania on labor-force-participation-gaps-between-US-and-Canada
• Laura Bronner et al on republicans-can-govern-without-winning-a-majority-that-threatens-our-entire-democracy

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on on-selection-mechanisms, capitals-political-power
• Mainly Macro on eurozone-fiscal-rules-should-be-based-on-national-macro-stabilisation

Asia

• Aarti Betigeri on bhutan-happy-days-jab-between-strategic-pinch
• Syed Fazl-E-Haider on pakistan-s-extremist-dilemma
• noahopinion on chinas-government-is-starting-to-screw-up
• Catherine Renshaw on guiding-myanmar-away-from-ruin
• Usha Rodrigues on as-pressure-builds-on-indias-narendra-modi-is-his-government-trying-to-silence-its-critics
• Michael Clarke on some-reflections-anonymous-xinjiang-paper
• Kannan Nair on taiwan-renewing-southbound-vision

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-what-three-economists-taught-us-about-currency-arrangements
• Gabi Mocatta and Rebecca Harris on more-reasons-for-optimism-on-climate-change-than-weve-seen-for-decades-2-climate-experts-explain
• Tim Harford on why-we-fear-blood-clots, cautionary-tales-masterly-inactivity
• noahopinion on a-tall-stack-of-hot-takes
• Macromania on on-role-and-future-of-crytocurrencies
• the conversable economist on nine-principles-of-policing-from-1829
• Barkley Rosser on robert-mundell-and-supply-side-economics
• Anthony Burke on high-hopes-hot-air-climate-change
• Daisy Sibun on assessing-the-scope-and-adequacy-of-social-protection-responses Thanks Peter Whiteford

General

• No Hesitations on variational-bayes-for-newtork-estimation

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on mind-your-units, some-thoughts-about-net-zero
• Royce Kurmelovs on insanely-cheap-energy-how-solar-power-continues-to-shock-the-world
• stoat on how-to-assess-multiple-interacting-of-climate-change
• moyhu on no-global-warming-is-not-50-of-what-CMIP6-models-predict

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• open-data-and-quality-two-orthogonal-factors-of-a-study
  
• is-it-really-true-that-the-u-s-death-rate-in-2020-was-the-highest-above-normal-since-the-early-1900s-even-surpassing-the-calamity-of-the-1918-flu-pandemic
  
• the-multiverse-of-methods-extending-the-multiverse-analysis-to-address-data-collection-decisions
  
• the-pandemic-how-bad-is-it-really
  
• hullmans-theorem-of-graphical-perception
  
• probability-problem-involving-multiple-coronavirus-tests-in-the-same-household
  
• off-white-a-preliminary-taxonomy
  
• when-can-a-predictive-model-improve-by-anticipating-behavioral-reactions-to-its-predictions
  
• Kaiser Fung on us-regulators-asleep-at-the-wheel , the-statistics-behind-the-jj-blood-clot-decision, the-miracle-of-randomization-in-ab-testing-and-rcts

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on on reinforcement learning
• No Hesitations on the-pandemic-recession-ended-long-ago

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• reshaping-european-economic-integration-post-covid-world
  
• growing-concentration-wealth-italy
  
• taxing-wealth-context-extreme-inequality-legacy-case-south-africa
  
• working-home-during-covid-19-pandemic-updated-estimates
  
• voice-monetary-policy
  
• commodity-prices-and-banking-crises
  
• africa-s-latent-assets
  
• french-firms-through-covid-storm
  
• migration-and-post-pandemic-reboot-global-trade
  
• lockdowns-widen-gender-gap-mental-health
  
• addressing-impediments-digital-trade-new-ebook
  
• individualised-pricing-can-abate-market-power-and-mitigate-merger-effects
  
• machine-learning-natural-experiment
  
• appropriation-artists
  
• social-cost-carbon-and-inequality
  
• china-and-wto-two-systems-meet
  
• pitfalls-average-inflation-targeting-when-agents-have-imperfect-knowledge
  
• foreign-currency-corporate-borrowing-risks-and-policy-responses
  
• smaller-economic-stimulus-payments-could-boost-consumer-spending-more
  
• china-and-wto-uneasy-relationship
  

The social cost of carbon and inequality

 Is it really true that by combatting the social cost of carbon you end up increasing inequality.

Perhaps NOT.

The Decision on India is immoral

 For the time being Aussies who are stranded in India and want to come home cannot.

This is disgraceful. Did we do this to the UK or the USA or any of the European nations. NO.

Imagine being an Aussie in India. you have desperately tried to get home but with no success. Now it is impossible.

What sort of nation are we. Why is India being treated differently to other nations. This policy is highly discriminant. 

I finally got my covid shot

 It took a lot of time but yesterday I finally got my covid shot at a local clinic where very few people were.

I have to say the information about the shot was appalling. I saw no ads about it at all. I only got to know what to do when I asked my doctor when seeing her for some reason.

What in heavens name is the government doing about this. They have been good at combatting this disease but terrible at getting the vaccine to people and we all need it.

Around the Traps 23/4/21

 It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Gahan and Jesse Olsen on to-abandon-vaccination-targets-is-to-abandon-the-mantle-of-leadership
• Greg Jericho on australia-has-coped-fairly-well-with-the-pandemic-with-climate-change-its-a-different-story
• Nathan Bartlett on 3-doses-then-1-each-year-why-pfizer-not-astrazeneca-is-the-best-bet-for-the-long-haul
• Tony Blakely on whats-the-risk-if-australia-opens-its-international-borders-an-epidemiologist-explains
• renew economy on delta-flagged-early-closure-of-vales-point-coal-plant-when-it-rejected-federal-grant, french-giant-total-eren-signs-on-to-massive-8gw-green-hydrogen-project-in-wa, oceanex-eyes-massive-10gw-of-offshore-and-floating-wind-farms-in-australia, big-boost-for-battery-storage-in-new-rules-that-reward-fast-response-on-grid, morrison-finds-shameless-new-way-to-fake-climate-action-as-world-steps-up
• Croaking Cassandra on just-dreadful, inflation, regulating-lending
• Thomas the Think Engine on oblivion-part-4-learning-from-stories
• Michael Minton on we-studied-50-years-of-royal-commissions-heres-how-they-make-a-difference
• Kevin Bonham on ditching-2pp-wont-resolve-australias-polling-problems
• Adam Morton on australia-has-been-talking-up-its-climate-credentials-but-do-the-claims-stack-up
• Michael Clarke on why-scrap-victorias-meaningless-belt-and-road-deal-because-it-sends-a-powerful-message-to-beijing
• Frank Jotzco on the-us-climate-target-blows-australias-out-of-the-water

Northern America

• Dick Grant on light-beginning-tunnel
• Noahopinion on republicans-and-the-great-replacement, ally-with-vietnam
• Perry Bacon on five-questions-the-political-media-is-wrestling-with-in-covering-americas-uncivil-war
• Alexis Karteron et al on why-this-trial-was-different-experts-react-to-guilty-verdict-for-derek-chauvin
• German Lopez on derek-chauvin-george-floyd-trial-guilty-verdict-police-prosecution-investigation
• the conversable economist on the-us-net-international-investment-position
• Sean Willenz on abraham-lincoln-rowdy-america
• John Quiggin on generational-replacement-and-the-leftward-shift-of-the-democrats
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-march-existing-home-sales
• Alex Tabarrok on a-foreign-policy-disaster-in-the-making
• Adam Posen on america-price-nostalgia

Europe

• Mainly Macro on two-types-of-recovery-from-covid
• stumbling and mumbling on capitalists-against-competition
• Angers Asland on putin-economic-policy-and-sanctions-cripple-russian-economy

Asia

• Khang Vu on south-korea-north-korea-keep-keeping
• Aristyo Darmawan on toxic-reaction-japan-s-fukushima-water-dump
• Jonah Blank on biden-iraq-invasion-america-afghanistan
• Yardena Scharwz on irreconcilable-hebron
• Bernard Avishai on netanyahu-on-trial-and-trying-to-form-a-government-is-promoting-his-own-big-lie
• Alyssa Leng and Roland Rajah on malaysias-political-turmoil-has-economic-cost
• Nic Bisley on china-drops-mask-its-global-ambition

Wonk

• Tim Harford on what-have-we-learnt-from-a-year-of-covid
• stumbling and mumbling on on-generational-difference
• Mainly Macro on why-neoliberalisms-evolution-into-a-populist-plutocracy-was-inevitable
• Phillip Citowicko on roosevelt-s-lessons-nations-generations
• and Then Theres Physics on do-lockdowns-work
• Lord Keynes on academic-agent-versus-adam-friended-on-inflation-and-MMT
• Menzie Chinn on the-fed-and-the-international-financial-system
• the conversable economist on an-economics-with-verbs-not-just-nouns, international-trade-and-economic-disruption-in-context
• Craig Mark on from-five-eyes-to-six-japans-push-to-join-the-wests-intelligence-alliance
• Richard Holden on the-pros-and-cons-of-diversity-in-organisations

General

• noahopinion on noah-smiths-writing-advice
• Gail Iles on so-a-helicopter-flew-on-mars-for-the-first-time-a-space-physicist-explains-why-thats-such-a-big-deal
• Nathan Eriquez et al on fat-footed-tyrannosaur-parents-couldnt-keep-up-with-their-skinnier-offspring-fossil-footprints-reveal

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on did-a-physicist-become-a-climate-truth-teller
• Nicholas Chan on america-s-back-paris-agreement-how-long
• Real Climate on two-graphs-show-the-path-to-1-5-degrees
• 
  

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• questions-about-our-old-analysis-of-police-stops
  
• one-reason-why-that-estimated-effect-of-fox-news-couldve-been-so-implausibly-high
  
• hierarchical-modeling-of-excess-mortality-time-series
  
• can-you-trust-international-surveys-a-follow-up
  
• cancer-patients-be-criming-some-discussion-and-meta-discussion-of-statistical-modeling-causal-inference-and-social-scienc
  
• eu-proposing-to-regulate-the-use-of-bayesian-estimation
  
• chess-com-cheater-detection-bot-pisses-someone-off
  
• eu-proposing-to-regulate-the-use-of-bayesian-estimation
  
• prediction-markets-in-a-polarized-society
  
• statschat on knowing-what-to-leave-out
• Kaiser Fung on in-science-truth-matters, what-to-think-about-vaccines-today-including-why-vaccines-protect-you-against-blood-clots, the-cheerleaders-of-herd-immunity

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-unknown-pioneer
  
• husband-has-written-a-terrific-book
  
• Tyler Cowen on nuclear-folly-a-history-of-the-cuban-missile-crisis

Vox Wonk

• brown-assets-might-be-next-subprime
  
• urgent-reform-eu-resolution-framework-needed
  
• tale-hours-worked-pay-home-and-after-great-recession-learning-high-frequency-diaries
  
• income-inequality-eu-trends-and-policy-implications
  
• work-home-technology-boon
  
• booms-and-busts-maritime-transport-costs-and-their-drivers
  
• work-home-technology-boon
  
• softer-monetary-policy-increases-inequality
  
• aggregate-implications-barriers-female-entrepreneurship
  
• accounting-great-divergence-recent-findings-historical-national-accounting
  
• bridging-not-bonding-regional-growth
  
• when-distance-drives-destination-small-towns-can-stimulate-development
  
• defence-regional-development-banks-covid-19-era
  
• why-housing-built-flood-prone-coastal-areas
  
• ditch-eu-s-fiscal-rules-develop-fiscal-standards-instead
  
• eu-economic-policy-and-architecture-after-covid-rebooting-debate-eu-reform-roadmap
  

the George Floyd Trial

 First some links

• why-this-trial-was-different-experts-react-to-guilty-verdict-for-derek-chauvin
  
• relief-at-derek-chauvin-conviction-a-sign-of-long-history-of-police-brutality
  
• derek-chauvin-george-floyd-trial-guilty-verdict-police-prosecution-investigation
  

some observations.

It helped that Senior Police personnel testified against the police officer

It helped the prosecutors were quite good and had excellent witnesses

It helped the jury did their duty.

Is it a new day. I hope so but I have my doubts.

The european Super League is gone before it stared. GOOD

The proposed European super league has come and gone . See stumbling and mumbling got a good read on it.

The whole idea was born out of avarice. A league where teams di not have to qualify for and never were relegated from. The fans at no time wanted it.

It is pertinent to note when Chelsea announced they would not go ahead their fans outside their stadium were singing we saved football. That is the fans saved football.

The boards should all resign en masse. They neither understand the great game of football nor do they understand the most important part of football. the fans.

All Leagues should relegate all said clubs in this venture to a lower division. Ban them from europe for at least 5 years. In other words hit them where it hurts.

One positive part of this would be a much more competitive leagues with any number of clubs able to be champions.

A great article on US politics

 Perry Bacon from 538 writes a thoroughly interesting article called five-questions-the-political-media-is-wrestling-with-in-covering-americas-uncivil-war.

Very thought provoking.

Phillip did not commit himself to service

 During all the platitudes of Phillip dying ( Isn't he the best example of not wanting to grow too old) many people have commented on his service to the community.

Sorry that is completely incorrect. Service implies sacrifice.

Phillip merely did his job of which he was paid a bucket load of money without paying any tax for most of his life.

Get it right.

Around the Traps 16/4/22

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on forecasting-failure
• James Ha on more-coal-fired-power-or-100-renewables-for-the-next-few-decades-both-paths-are-wrong
• Brendan Coates on housing-affordability-is-a-problem-heres-why-super-for-housing-isnt-a-solution
• Mark Kenny on as-australias-vaccination-bungle-becomes-clear-morrisons-political-pain-is-only-just-beginning
• renew economy on taylor-names-gas-industry-advocates-to-climate-change-authority-board, climate-agencies-are-being-gassified-as-australia-ramps-up-international-greenwash, faster-cheaper-cleaner-big-batteries-the-new-king-of-peaking-services, solar-switch-off-rule-to-extend-to-ev-chargers-pool-pumps-and-air-con, south-australia-to-introduce-flexible-export-option-for-rooftop-solar, south-australia-to-introduce-flexible-export-option-for-rooftop-solar
• Jim Stanford on resistance-to-raising-the-minimum-wage-reflects-obsolete-economic-thinking
• Jane Frawley on new-astrazeneca-advice-is-a-safer-path-but-its-damaged-vaccine-confidence-the-government-must-urgently-restore-it
• Greg Jericho on inflation-will-reappear-in-australia-but-that-shouldnt-mean-the-end-of-stimulus, yes-interest-rates-are-low-but-that-doesnt-mean-australian-housing-is-getting-more-affordable
• Michael O'Neil on not-wiped-out-even-after-the-collapse-of-greensill-theres-time-to-save-whyalla
• Peter Martin on home-prices-are-climbing-alright-but-not-for-the-reason-you-might-think
• Michelle Grattan on christine-holgate-presents-a-compelling-story-of-morrisons-bullying
• Thomas the Think Engine on oblivion-part-3
• Tom Hubble on sydneys-disastrous-flood-wasnt-unprecedented-and-we-can-expect-more-major-floods-in-just-10-years
• Richard Holden on christine-holgates-principal-error-was-applying-corporate-logic-to-australia-post
• John Blaxland on incomplete-strategy-and-niche-contributions-australia-leaves-afghanistan-after-20-years

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on when-us-corporate-tax-rates-reductions-last-bloomed
• Kruggers on trump-corporate-tax-reform
• noahopinion on i-dont-get-the-high-speed-rail-thing, republicans-and-the-great-replacement
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-amy-coney-barrett-religion-california-tandon-newsom-first-amendment
• Julie Azari on democratic-values-are-still-under-attack-even-without-trump-in-the-white-house
• the conversable economist on the-us-productivity-slowdown-after-2005
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-small-uptick-in-inflation-in-august
• Wesley Morgan on america-never-knew-why-it-was-afghanistan
• Howard French on can-america-remain-preeminent

Europe

• Barkley Rosser on vignette
• stumbling and mumbling on the-need-for-institutional-brains, prince-philip-the-communist-ideal
• Mainly Macro on two-types-of-recovery-from-covid
• James O'Neill on northern-ireland-born-of-strife-100-years-ago-again-erupts-in-political-violence

Asia

• Akimoto Daisuke on legalising-same-sex-marriage-japan
• Susan Thornton on quad-finally-delivers-can-it-be-sustained
• Nicolas Boorst on has-china-given-state-owned-enterprise-reform
• Anita Singh on russia-s-asia-diplomacy
• James Laurenson on will-five-eyes-stare-down-china-s-economic-coercion

Wonk

• John Quiggin on public-debt-isnt-money-for-nothing-but-we-shouldnt-panic-about-it
• Tim Harford on technology-has-turned-back-the-clock-on-productivity
• John Edwards on covid-recovery-australia-and-world
• Rodger Shanahan on iran-us-israel-boxing-out-shadows
• Nick Gruen on the-more-things-change-stefan-zweig-on-the-difference-in-mood-attending-the-outbreak-the-two-world-wars
• the conversable economist onwhat-do-you-call-bigger-wave-of-debt, pharma-r-vaccines-and-other-drugs

General

• 
  

Climate

• Seeing the Environmental Forest on shifting-bell-curves-revisited
• the conversable economist on electrify-everything-some-limitations
• Des Smog blog on methane-emissions-spiked-in-2020-scientists-fear-feedback-loops
• and Then Theres Physics on plausible-emission-scenarios
• Will Steffen on failure-is-not-an-option-after-a-lost-decade-on-climate-action-the-2020s-offer-one-last-chance
• noahopinion on why-has-climate-economics-failed
• Kevin Cowton on robust comparison of climate models Thanks Brad
• Lijing Cheng on how fast are oceans warming Thanks Brad
• Noah Smith on economists-are-out-of-touch-with-climate-change

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• whats-the-biggest-mistake-revealed-by-this-table-a-puzzle
  
• when-can-we-challenge-authority-with-authority
  
• relative-vs-absolute-risk-reduction-500-doctors-want-to-know
  
• is-explainability-the-new-uncertainty
  
• rob-tibshirani-yuling-yao-and-aki-vehtari-on-cross-validation
  
• more-on-that-credulity-thing
  
• which-sorts-of-posts-get-more-blog-comments
  
• do-you-come-from-liverpool
  
• in-making-minimal-corrections-and-not-acknowledging-that-he-made-these-errors-rajan-is-dealing-with-the-symptoms-but-not-the-underlying-problem-which-is-that-hes-processing-recent-history-via-conv
  
• a-fill-in-the-blanks-contest-attributing-the-persistence-of-the-7-25-minimum-wage-to-the-median-voter-theorem-is-as-silly-as
• a-recommender-system-for-scientific-papers
  
• statschat on briefly, why-the-concern-about-vaccine-blood-clotting

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on practical-guide-to-climate-econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• 
  

Vox Wonk

• measuring-human-capital-learning-matters-more-schooling
  
• cost-benefit-analysis-and-covid-vaccination-campaign-france
  
• effects-health-shocks-crime
  
• mortality-spanish-nursing-homes-during-first-wave-covid-19
  
• harming-ocean-impacts-children-low-and-middle-income-countries
  
• mundell-difference
  
• latin-america-and-caribbean-after-covid-19
  
• economic-recessions-and-age-discrimination
  
• emerging-markets-amid-us-and-china-cross-currents
  
• solution-mystery-excess-trade-balances
  
• longer-term-impact-african-growth-and-opportunity-act
  
• solution-mystery-excess-trade-balances
  
• inflation-aftermath-wars-and-pandemics
  
• pandemics-make-us-more-averse-inequality
  

Morrison's problems

 When it rains it pours. We have seen Morrison on recent times at his worst. 

Like Paul Keating he is incapable of saying sorry even when everyone knows he should. He was wrong on his criticism of the previous Australia Post CEO ( why was she sacked??) This is probably because of his lack of experience of what occurs in private enterprise.   Let us leave alone why bonuses are paid in the first place. ( Isn't this part of a persons job?) the bonuses were actually modest and the outcomes were fantastic for the Enterprise. My mother in law lives at Blayney. They soon wil lnot have one bank in the town. they can only bank at the post office.

When Morrison is on defence he hits the angry pills and becomes very aggressive. This can lead to bullying as it was against Ms Holgate. It is pretty clear one of Albanese's strategies is to provoke him into said angry outbursts.

He is all over the place on the covid vaccine rollout which is a complete failure. ( I have mine on April 26).

The communication on the astrazeneca vaccine has been appalling. It is not harmful to get it but this has not been explained very well at all.

He has a reliance on spin and announcements and not implementation of programs.

He is seen as not authentic.

We shall see if he can overcome these problems or not.

My Recuperation was pretty boring

 I thought having six weeks off and not even being allowed to take the garbage out or do the mowing would be great.

WRONG! It was boring.

I went to the library a few times in search of good reads. I did not find anything. 

Had radio brightened up ? No. Radio National is either fantastic or dead boring. 2GB has had a makeover. No bombastic male announcers now. Very middle of the road. I do have to say Jim Wilson on at 3 pm does sound like a dope. Perhaps he is trying too much. 2UE simply does not play much decent music.

TV had a few good shows. One I did like was Diagnosis Murder. the late Dick Van Dyke is the brains behind the show. It is pleasant, the characters are fine and I can fast forward the show to the end if I get bored to find out the murderer. Harrow had another good run as well.

The one good thing was watching the test series between England and India.

I feel like I was robbed.

Whoopsy. I forgot I decided to watch a little bit of Sky After Dark. When an ad break was on in the program I was watching. It is incredibly boring. One night Paul Murray talked alone for over 25 minutes. wow.

Kruggers on Robert Mundell

 Kruggers on Mundell. He does do good obituaries. He did a good one on Freidman as well.

Movie review The courier

 Last week I watched The Courier and thoroughly enjoyed myself.

Benedict Cumberbatch is the 'star however to me it is Merab Ninidze is the real star. 

MI5 and the CIA come up with a plan of using a simple businessman as a courier of secrets that a man in the kremlin wants to have because he is afraid of  the Soviet Leadership.

Do yourself a favour and go and watch it.

Around the Traps 9/4/21

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Melissa Parsons and Martin Thoms on floodplains-arent-separate-to-a-river-theyre-an-extension-of-it-its-time-to-change-how-we-connect-with-them
• Michael McGreevey on why-cities-planning-to-spend-billions-on-light-rail-should-look-again-at-what-buses-can-do
• Rupert Posner on on-the-road-again-heres-how-the-states-can-accelerate-australias-sputtering-electric-vehicle-transition
• Greg Jericho on whenever-the-chance-to-advocate-for-higher-wages-arises-the-morrison-government-declines
• Richard Dennis on is-malcolm-turnbull-the-only-liberal-who-understands-economics-and-climate-science-or-the-only-one-wholl-talk-about-it
• John Quiggin on finkels-road-to-zero
• renew economy on do-or-die-moment-for-market-re-design-as-taylor-takes-control-of-process, the-perfect-backdrop-for-nsws-big-ugly-coal-problem
• Institutional Economics on when-the-media-penny-drops
• Richard Holden on to-fix-australias-housing-affordability-crisis-negative-gearing-must-go
• Nathan Bartlett on astrazenecas-blood-clot-risk-is-incredibly-small-australia-shouldnt-follow-the-uks-lead-of-offering-under-30s-another-vaccine
• Croaking Cassandra on holding-senior-officials-to-high-standards
• Thomas the Think Engine on oblivion-part-2

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on brief-discussion-impact-of-rising-mortgage-rates-on-home-sales-and-house-prices
• noahopinion on bidenomics-explained
• Zack Beauchamp on study-republican-control-state-government-bad-for-democracy, georgia-sb202-voter-suppression-democracy-big-lie
• Meredith Conroy on why-being-anti-media-is-now-part-of-the-gop-identity
• Menzie Chinn on re-examining-the-effects-of-trading-with-china-on-local-labor-markets-a-supply-chain-perspective-2
• the conversable economist on evolving-patterns-of-innovation-across
• Richard Murphy on bidens-tax-plan-is-about-tackling-the-class-warfare-of-the-us-elite Thanks Brad

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on complicated-motives
• Mainly Macro on labour-should-start-contesting-tory-economic-record
• Thomas Rogers on welcome-to-germany

Asia

• Chris Cheng and Holmes Chan on xinjiang-cotton-beijing-taking-world
• Tharaphi Phan on myanmars-brutal-military-was-once-a-force-for-freedom-but-its-been-waging-civil-war-for-decades
• Kirsten Han on singapore-covid-vs-privacy-no-contest
• Roland Rajah on big-bark-small-bite-china-s-trade-coercion
• Melissa Chan on uyghur-women-china-xinjiang

Wonk

• Alexandra Wake et al on curbs-on-press-freedom-come-with-a-cost-new-research-reveals
• Tim Harford on late-greats-why-some-brilliant-ideas-get-overlooked
• noahopinion on against-hickelism, the-great-protest-wave, bitcoin-is-upending-the-world-of-the-rich
• the conversable economist on policy-for-next-pandemics, dispose-of-masks-properly-or-else
• Shelley Inglis on for-autocrats-like-vladimir-putin-ruthless-repression-is-often-a-winning-way-to-stay-in-power

General

• Rob Brooks on curious-kids-why-do-people-like-to-kiss-do-other-animals-kiss
• Anthony Zuulli  et al on what-is-thrombocytopenia-the-rare-blood-condition-possibly-linked-to-the-astrazeneca-vaccine

Climate

• Real Climate on should-the-official-atlantic-hurricane-season-be-lengthened
• Peter Sinclair on 10-years-on-how-did-predictions-pan-out
• Moyhu on march-global-surface-templs-up-0252C
• Judith Rosentreter et al on half-of-global-methane-emissions-come-from-aquatic-ecosystems-much-of-this-is-human-made
• renew economy on for-hydrogen-to-dominate-the-low-carbon-world-batteries-must-fail
• Deanna Kemp on clean-energy-the-worlds-demand-for-copper-could-be-catastrophic-for-communities-and-environments

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• hcq-the-clinical-trials-they-summarized-were-predominantly-in-young-healthy-people-so-even-the-best-drug-in-the-world-wouldnt-look-good-under-their-framework
  
• america-has-a-ruling-class
  
• the-2019-project-how-false-beliefs-in-statistical-differences-still-live-in-social-science-and-journalism-today
  
• discuss-our-new-r-hat-paper-for-the-journal-bayesian-analysis
  
• adjusting-for-differences-between-treatment-and-control-groups-statistical-significance-and-multiple-testing-have-nothing-to-do-with-it
  
• understanding-the-value-of-bloc-voting-using-the-congressional-progressive-caucus-as-an-example
  
• some-issues-when-using-mrp-to-model-attitudes-on-a-gun-control-attitude-question-on-a-1-4-scale
  
• state-level-predictors-in-mrp-and-baysian-prior
  
• why-did-it-take-so-many-decades-for-the-behavioral-sciences-to-develop-a-sense-of-crisis-around-methodology-and-replication
  

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on local-projections-vs-vars
• Freaakometrics on big data the tech giants and insurance

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• endogenising-economists
  
• and-not-or-state-and-market
• banks V business
  
  

Vox Wonk

• persistent-electoral-benefits-redistribution
  
• roaring-twenties-revisiting-evidence-europe
  
• spend-now-tax-later-budget
  
• hidden-costs-corporate-social-responsibility
  
• behavioural-strategies-reduce-teacher-sorting-peru
  
• capital-and-economic-growth-britain-1270-1870
  
• quantitative-easing-emerging-market-economies
  
• lock-effects-part-time-unemployment-benefits
  
• quantitative-easing-emerging-market-economies
  
• efficient-carbon-pricing-under-uncertainty
  
• partisan-politics-and-macroeconomic-policy-economic-unions
  
• populism-bureaucratic-expertise-and-government-performance
  
• central-bank-swaps-age-covid-19
  
• exchange-rate-pass-through-monetary-policy-and-real-exchange-rates
  
• reporting-regulation-impact-corporate-innovation
  
• how-high-speed-rail-changes-spatial-distribution-economic-activity
  

Efficient carbon pricing under uncertainty

 From what I call Vox Wonk a short article on the above topic.

Really interesting

For Hydrogen to succeed batteries must fail

 Renew Economy has a very interesting article on this.

Around the Traps 2/4/21 Easter Edition

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Nino Bucci on renewables-plus-batteries-offer-australia-the-same-energy-security-as-coal-research-finds
• renew economy on solar-tax-may-be-outrageous-but-is-it-as-bad-as-it-sounds, gas-led-recovery-aemo-says-gas-use-in-grid-may-all-but-disappear-in-20-years, biggest-coal-generator-agl-to-split-business-in-two-to-focus-on-renewables-transition, aemo-calls-for-all-hands-to-navigate-incredibly-fast-transition-to-renewables
• Lisa Gibbs on more-than-a-decade-after-the-black-saturday-fires-its-time-we-got-serious-about-long-term-disaster-recovery-planning
• Ross Bradstock et al on a-staggering-1-8-million-hectares-burned-in-high-severity-fires-during-australias-black-summer
• Sue Williamson on andrew-laming-why-empathy-training-is-unlikely-to-work
• Croaking Cassandra on grant-robertson-on-housing, exporting-how-does-nz-compare
• Bruce Mountain on now-they-want-to-charge-households-for-exporting-solar-electricity-to-the-grid-itll-send-the-system-backwards
• Peter Martin on the-true-cost-of-the-governments-changes-to-jobseeker-is-incalculable-its-as-if-it-didnt-learn-from-robodebt
• Albert Van Dijt et al on even-after-the-rains-australias-environment-scores-a-3-out-of-10-these-regions-are-struggling-the-most
• Ove Hoeve Guldberg and Leslie Hughes on seriously-ugly-heres-how-australia-will-look-if-the-world-heats-by-3-this-century
• Greg Jericho on public-investment-in-infrastructure-would-be-a-much-needed-boon-to-the-australian-economy

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-biden-avoids-mistake-of-insufficient-fiscal-stimulus, estimating-potential-output, did-the-lockdown-cause-more-suicides
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-war-joe-biden-agency-regulation-administrative-neil-gorsuch-epa-nondelegation, dominion-fox-news-1-6-billion-tucker-carlson-lou-dobbs-maria-bartiromo-defamation-first-amendment
• Barkley Rosser on is-biden-presidency-final-triumph-of-the-silent-generation
• Perry Bacon on why-georgias-new-voting-law-is-such-a-big-deal
• Charlie Sykes on ret-conning-trumpism
• Kate Clayton on washington-risks-unsustainable-climate-policy
• Nathaniel Rakich on americans-oppose-many-voting-restrictions-but-not-voter-id-laws

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on complicated-motives
• the conversable economist on the-spread-in-labor-costs-across-in-europe
• Chris Patten on boris-johnson-global-britain-hard-brexit-choices thanks Brad

Asia

• Aarti Betigeri on india-taste-political-variety
• Nishank Motwani on interim-government-would-bring-ruin-afghanistan
• noahopinion on china-is-very-20th-century
• Barkley Rosser on the-iran-china-deal
• Mubashar Hasan on understanding-bangladesh-s-most-potent-religious-opposition

Wonk

• John Quiggin on there-really-was-a-golden-age, the-suez-canal-blockage-captured-the-worlds-attention-but-sea-lanes-are-not-as-important-as-many-claim, public-debt-dont-target-the-quantity-target-the-price
• noahopinion on yes-experts-will-lie-to-you-sometimes
• Mainly Macro on vines-and-willis-on-future-of-macro
• Kate Clayton on washington-risks-unsustainable-climate-policy
• the conversable economist on data-and-developments
• Macomania on a-natural-rate-of-interest
• Uneasy Money on monetarism-and-hawtrey-and-cassel
• Richard Holden on swaps-options-and-other-derivatives-arent-just-for-the-financial-elite
• Adam Tooze on janet-yellen-mario-draghi-italy-united-states-technocrats-capitalist-democracy

General

• Mathew Barton and Michael Todorovic on curious-kids-why-are-some-kids-left-handed-and-others-are-right-handed

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on solar-radiation-management-2

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• substack
  
• is-he-you-know
  
• like-a-harbor-clotted-with-sunken-vessels-update
  
• estimating-the-college-wealth-premium-not-so-easy
• a-tale-of-two-epidemiologists
  
• many-years-ago-when-he-was-a-baby-economist
  
• i-have-this-great-april-fools-ideas-but-theres-no-space-for-it-in-the-margin-of-this-blog
  
• the-both-both-of-science-reform
  
• call-for-a-moratorium-on-the-use-of-the-term-prisoners-dilemma
  
• more-background-on-our-research-on-constructing-an-informative-prior-from-a-corpus-of-comparable-studies
  
• Kaiser Fung on note-on-a-simpsons-paradox-in-real-world-vaccine-effectiveness-studies, what-the-danish-study-tells-us-about-the-cdc-study-on-real-world-effectiveness, how-the-cdc-study-handled-biases-in-observational-data

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on covid-modeling-update-bayesian-analysis

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• baumol-meets-marx
  

Vox wonk

• new-central-banking-calls-european-credit-council
  
• alzheimer-s-and-un-s-decade-healthy-ageing
  
• minimum-legal-drinking-age-and-social-gradient-binge-drinking
  
• reducing-rural-urban-education-gap-through-computer-assisted-learning
  
• firms-and-labour-markets-times-violence
  
• regulation-and-economic-growth-contingent-relationship
  
• unstuffing-banks-fed-deposits-why-and-how
  
• external-sovereign-debt-restructurings-delay-and-replay
  
• declining-effectiveness-lockdowns
  
• aiming-zero-covid-19-ensure-economic-growth