Ignorance is strength

I thank Jim Rose for this example. a blog named stop these things criticised wind turbines for freezing over and thus not working when it gets cold. Texas being the prime example

Noe we know it can and it is called winterising wind turbines which did not occur in Texas.

I made a comment. how come they work in Antarctica. It was deleted.

Lockdowns decline in effectiveness over time

 A really interesting article at Vox wonk as i like to call it on declining-effectiveness-of-lockdowns

how bad were the Bush fires last 'fire' season

 A really good article looks at this very topic.

People who wish to mislead examine all bushland without telling you the savannah in the Northern Territory burns a lot as people do not try and put it out.

Cricket Season is over

 The weekend saw the finals played in the local cricket competition. Due to rain 1v2 was in every final.

It was my lamentable task to umpire a 3rd grade final at blackman oval. It is an artificial pitch with artificial turf. Great for football but bad for cricket. The pitch is right on top on a rain tank which you hear all the time. It also cause the ball not to jump as it does on most artificial pitches.

This means it is very hard to get out thus favouring the team who finished first in this case.

The game was thus boring. Even a legspinner got no bounce on this pitch. Possibly the only bit of interest was me no-balling a bowler who through has faster ball.

It is a long wait until late September when cricket returns. More so now I do not referee

Around the Traps 26/3/21

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on closed-borders-and-fear-of-the-future-australias-population-shrank-during-the-pandemic, australias-economy-is-more-reliant-on-iron-ore-than-ever
• Ann Twomey on rorts-scandals-in-politics-are-rife-so-what-exactly-are-the-rules
• Michael Keating on its-great-to-want-wage-growth-but-the-way-were-going-about-it-could-stunt-the-recovery
• renew economy on portland-smelter-secures-160m-energy-deal-to-stay-open-and-act-like-giant-battery, government-officials-say-they-knew-collinsville-coal-plant-study-could-fail, agl-gives-green-light-to-250mw-torrens-big-battery-in-south-australia, solar-tax-networks-will-be-able-to-charge-households-to-export-solar-power-to-grid
• Croaking Cassandra on questions, messing-around-with-housing
• Michelle Grattan on view-from-the-hill-scott-morrison-becomes-tangled-in-his-own-spider-web
• John Quiggin on finkel-on-getting-to-zero
• Peter Martin on super-funds-have-been-working-for-themselves-when-they-should-have-been-working-for-us-thats-about-to-change
• Andy Pittman on what-is-a-1-in-100-year-weather-event-and-why-do-they-keep-happening-so-often
• Joelle Gergis on yes-australia-is-a-land-of-flooding-rains-but-climate-change-could-be-making-it-worse
• Osmond Chiu on australian-politics-should-be-diverse-its-people
• Institutional Economics on mind-the-lowe-gap
• Richard Holden on the-best-thing-for-jobs-now-is-to-accelerate-the-vaccine-roll-out
• Felicity Deane on the-european-union-wants-to-impose-carbon-tariffs-on-australian-exports-is-that-legal
• Michelle Grattan on the-worst-is-not-over-in-the-crisis-tearing-at-scott-morrisons-government

Northern America

• Brad De Long on passing-the-baton-the-interview
• Anya Wagtendock on democrats-republicans-covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-polls
• Jelani Cobb on the-high-cost-of-georgias-restrictive-voting-bills
• Menzie Chinn on the-cyclical-component-of-gdp
• Tyler Cowen on that-was-then-this-is-now-the-median-voter-theorem-remains-underrated , inflation-and-complacency
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-february-existing-home-sales, a-few-comments-on-february-new-home-sales
• Kate Riga and Josh Kovensky on trump-covid-vaccination-distribution-biden Thanks Brad
• Jonathan Chait on everybody-shouldnt-be-voting-republican-vote-suppression-national-review-history Thanks Brad
• no more mister nice on the-worst-senate-race Thanks Brad
• lawyers,guns and money on rich-lowry-upholds-longstanding-national-reviews-longstanding-policy-on-voting-rights thanks Brad
• John Quiggin on the-economic-consequences-of-mr-biden
• German Lopez on boulder-colorado-mass-shooting-gun-violence-america-usa
• the conversable economist on china-us-trade-some-patterns-since-1990
• New Deal Democrat on seconding-paul-krugman-inflationary-pressures-will-be-a-transient-phenomenon-in-2021-but-will-they-cause-a-recession-in-2022
• Tyler Cowen on decades-of-evidence-on-the-cyclicality-of-real-wages
• Zack Beauchamp on georgia-voting-sb-202-explained

Europe

• Mainly Macro on as-things-stand-chances-of-defeating-johnson-at-the-next-election-are-minscule
• James empty blog on history-in-remaking

Asia

• James Chinn on north-korea-and-malaysia-s-predictable-diplomatic-divorce
• noahopinion on china-just-isnt-very-popular
• Barkley Rosser on peace-in-libya
• Hanlie Boosen on ten-years-on-from-the-syrian-uprising-what-has-prevented-an-end-to-the-tragedy
• Timothy McLaughlin on hong-kong-prodemocracy-protesters-trial

Wonk

• Abraham Thomas on covid-19s-economic-impact
• Menzie Chinn on measuring-the-informal-sector
• Jeffrey Robertson on when-middle-power-not-caught-middle
• the conversable economist on mission-creep-for-bank-regulators-and-central-banks
• and Then Theres Physics on science-in-the-time-of-covid-19
• noahopinion on the-return-of-the-macro-wars
• Nick Rowe on if-you-wanna-run-hot-you-gotta-run-steady
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-deploying-soft-power-and-future-trade
• Tim Harford on the-painful-politics-of-vaccination
• Nick Gruen on how-to-read-evidence-in-a-fast-movingsituation-such-as-the-pandemic

General

• Alex Tabarrok on libertarian-pbs
• Mathew Sharpe on guide-to-the-classics-voltaires-candide-a-darkly-satirical-tale-of-human-folly-in-times-of-crisis
• Jariel Arvin on ship-stuck-suez-canal-blocked-ever-given-memes

Climate

• Jariel Arvin on china-biden-alaska-blinken-climate-change
• Real Climate on a-potential-rule-of-thumb-for-hourly-rainfall
• Noahopinion on decarbonization-think-globally-act
• Andra J Garber et al on impact of climate change on NY city's coastal flood hazard Thanks Peter Whiteford
• Tyler Cowen on on-the-gdp-temperature-relationship-and-its-relevance-for-climate-damages
• Peter Sinclair on solving-the-transmission-bottleneck

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• whassup-with-the-haphazard-coronavirus-statistics
  
• chernobyl-disaster-and-matthew-walkers-why-we-sleep
  
• the-100-worst-ed-tech-debacles-of-the-decade
  
• death-and-lockdowns
  
• the-folk-theorem-revisited
  
• question-on-multilevel-modeling-reminds-me-that-we-need-a-good-modeling-workflow-building-up-your-model-by-including-varying-intercepts-slopes-etc-and-a-good-computing-workflow
  
• statschat on prior-beliefs-and-evidence
• Kaiser Fung on blood-clots-is-there-a-there, probabilities-of-covid-19

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on the-latest-in-probability-forecast-evaluation
• Charles Jones on time series tests of endogenous growth models Thanks Brad
• Freakometrics on insurance and autonomous vehicles

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• white-elephants-and-icons
  
• Andrew Gelman on richard-hammings-the-art-of-doing-science-and-engineering

Vox Wonk

• technological-progress-reduces-effectiveness-monetary-policy
  
• how-firms-can-make-or-break-green-transition
  
• language-training-and-refugees-success
  
• when-agriculture-drives-development
  
• long-run-contact-immigrant-groups-prejudice-and-altruism
  
• climate-change-and-central-banks-expectations-channel
  
• continuity-relationships-and-loan-renegotiation
  
• how-arrears-could-unleash-banking-crisis
  
• political-contestability-and-public-contract-renegotiations
  
• market-liquidity-european-sovereign-bonds-during-covid-19-crisis
  
• intangible-value
  
• global-pricing-carbon-transition-risk
  
• how-economic-effects-covid-19-lockdowns-different-regions-interact-through-supply-chains
  
• rising-temperatures-melting-ratings
  

Morrison and political judgement

 Ever since Brittany Higgins levelled rape allegations against a former staff member she worked with Scott Morrison has shown very poor political judgement.

He seemingly did not know how to react to the allegations. His staff did background against her boyfriend which it seems had to leave his job partly because of that. Just remember no-one but no-one backgrounds unless their boss okays it.

His explanation of only after listening to his wife and relating the incident to his daughters was embarrassing. Moreover his explanation of not hearing of the allegation when numerous staff in his office did know is frankly not believable. Imagine  not hearing of this incident just when the election is called,

It matters not whether you disbelieve the allegations against Christian Porter , As I have previously said his position was untenable. This was exacerbated when Porter took legal action against the ABC and ensured it would be heard in the Federal court. ( Can I merely say if Porter wins this case then a) the law is an ass b) this could only occur because Porter could not do his job as AG.)

As I have said before Morrison appears to take angry pills when he is asked a question he does not want to answer. He appears to have a political glass jaw. That he brought up gossip which was  inaccurate says it all. how does his staff bring this up but not the rape allegation. Who in the hell workshopped that reply.

I could go on but Morrison's pollical judgment has been shown to be wanting. Just remember no-one including himself, thought the government would win the last election. He was not asked any hard questions. only Shorten was. This won't be the case in the next election.

I end with what I think is emblematic of Morrison. He wore a cap when visiting country regions. Just as Barnaby Joyce wore a large hat to 'show' he was a farmer when he never was. Morrison wore the cap to be 'daggy dad'. A cap does little to stop the sun as every farmer knows,

Postscript:

Morrison is in danger of the Scotty from Marketing moniker making a comeback. If it does it is because most people do not believe he is authentic. One lesson from Abbott is it does not matter how fawning some media outlets are of you once the public makes up their mind you are gone.

what is a 1 in 100 year weather event

 Thanks to Andy Pittman  et al we are given all the information we need to onw on this topic.

Most people get this wrong.

On a partly related topic Joelle Gergis on why climate change might change this.

the culture in Canberra MUST change

 I am mortified. THIS action is unbelievable. Masturbating in a Minister's office is simply morally reprehensible. Yes he should have  been sacked and the rest of the Whatsup group should be closely examined with further sackings possible after investigation.

I do not believe this is par for the course for staffers in any party however all parties need to re-examine the culture existing in their offices and make it crystal clear things need to change. Quite clearly female staff for the ALP are not too impressed at the moment.

the Jenkins report cannot come fast enough.

Scott Morrison should forget spin. This issue needs to be tri-partisan.

Oh dear at a press conference Morrison attack's News Ltd. He cannot help himself. instead of empathy he simply attacks. Funny how he knows about rumours at News Ltd but knew nothing about the Higgins alleged rape/

Wages What top do

 We all want wages to rise but what do we do.

Michael Keating has a small article to enlighten us on the subject. Very thought provoking

Around the Traps 19/3/21

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Sarah Cameron on could-the-morrison-governments-response-to-sexual-assault-claims-cost-it-the-next-election
• Ian Parmenter on iran-could-australia-s-hostage-diplomacy-have-been-better
• Ross Gittins on unless-morrison-does-lot-more-recovery-will-be-weak-and-slow
• Will Cornwell et al on 5-remarkable-stories-of-flora-and-fauna-in-the-aftermath-of-australias-horror-bushfire-season
• Brendan Clift on why-defamation-suits-in-australia-are-so-ubiquitous-and-difficult-to-defend-for-media-organisations
• Croaking Cassandra on housing-house-prices-and-the-like, what-the-imf-has-advised, free-up-the-land
• Kevin Bonham on asinine-nsw-labor-not-at-hundred-year-low
• renew economy on agl-leads-renewable-power-play-in-agreed-2-75-billion-bid-for-tilt, switching-off-rooftop-solar-will-become-a-regular-feature-of-a-renewables-grid, australias-biggest-coal-state-could-reach-100pct-renewables-by-2030-reputex-says,australia-braces-for-solar-price-hike-as-supply-chain-pressures-start-to-bite
• Peter Martin on electricity-has-become-a-jigsaw-coal-is-unable-to-provide-the-missing-pieces
• Lesley Hughes on wake-up-mr-morrison-australias-slack-climate-effort-leaves-our-children-10-times-more-work-to-do
• Adam Morton on doubling-uptake-of-wind-and-solar-power-could-set-up-australia-for-net-zero-emissions-by-2040
• Frank Bongiorno on from-snapback-to-comeback-policy-gridlock-as-morrison-government-puts-slogans-over-substance
• Greg Jericho on could-the-biggest-result-of-pandemic-stimulus-and-low-interest-rates-be-higher-house-prices-in-australia
• Michelle Grattan on the-gender-wars-become-yet-another-partisan-battlefield

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on the-american-rescue-plan
• Corey Robin on what-was-the-is-trump-a-fascist-debate-ultimately-about
• Adam Richardson on florida-supreme-court-desantis-republicans-precedent
• Ben Scott on us-and-rules-based-order-testing-plan
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-february-housing-starts
• Michael Tomasky on filibuster-senate-restore-majority-rule
• Jane Mayer on can-cyrus-vance-jr-nail-trump
• run 75441 on bidens-one-chance-to-stop-republican-voter-suppression
• the conversable economist on will-workers-disperse-from-cities

Europe

• Mainly Macro on the-royal-family-is-todays-england
• Kate Manne on what-sarah-everards-murder-illuminatesand-might-obscure

Asia

• Alexy Murviev on russia-wants-be-power-be-reckoned-indian-ocean
• Sigal Samuel on china-uyghur-birthrate-sterilization-genocide
• Khang Vu on troubles-ahead-us-south-korea-alliance
• Stephen Simon on turning-away-from-the-middle-east

Wonk

• Kirsty Short on the-uk-variant-is-likely-deadlier-more-infectious-and-becoming-dominant-but-the-vaccines-still-work-well-against-it
• the conversable economist on negative-interest-rates-practical-but-limited
• Peter Greste on journalists-and-security-agencies-dont-need-to-be-friends-but-can-they-at-least-talk-to-each-other
• stumbling and mumbling on the-paradox-of-financial-innovation
• Tyler Cowen on the-importance-of-superspreading-events
• Menzie Chinn on macroeconomic-competitiveness

General

• Sidney Coleman on quantum mechanics Thanks Brad

Climate

• Moyhu on giss-february-global-down-by-017-from-january
• Skeptical Science on most important steps to build a renewable energy system
• Nicolas Cardenas et al on mangroves-from-space-30-years-of-satellite-images-are-helping-us-understand-how-climate-change-threatens-these-valuable-forests
• coppolla comment on from-carbon-to-metals-renewable-energy
• the conversable economist on an-update-on-carbon-capture-and-storage

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-5-sigma-rule-in-physics
  
• a-bayesian-state-space-model-for-the-german-federal-election-2021-with-stan
  
• how-much-granularity-do-you-need-in-your-mister-p
  
• the-garden-of-forking-paths-why-multiple-comparisons-can-be-a-problem-even-when-there-is-no-fishing-expedition-or-p-hacking-and-the-research-hypothesis-was-posited-ahead-of-time-2
  
• answers-to-your-questions-about-polling-and-elections
  
• huge-partisan-differences-in-who-wants-to-get-vaccinated
  
• what is wrong with this model
• statschat on obesity-and-covid-deaths
• Kaiser Fung on third-worst-kept-secret, take-2-on-the-johnson-johnson-vaccine-trial-results, blood-clots-is-there-a-there

Econometrics

• no hesitations on the-finance-crowd-analysis-project, machine-learning-panel-data
• econometric sense on why-study-applied-economics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky - book reviews)

• epic-reading
  
• sense-about-data
  
• Stephen Minas on belt-and-road-and-pandemic-detour

Vox Wonk

• sustaining-india-s-growth-miracle-requires-increased-attention-inequality-opportunity
  
• technology-labour-market-institutions-and-early-retirement
  
• productivity-working-home-evidence-japan
  
• why-i-agree-google-fitbit-decision
  
• case-creating-excess-capacity-us-food-and-drug-administration
  
• market-implied-effects-biden-stimulus-and-fed-s-new-policy-framework
  
• scarred-consumption
  
• working-home-revolutionising-uk-labour-market
  
• prohibition-s-repeal-and-its-unintended-impact-public-health
  
• land-back-it-should-be-taxed-it-can-be-taxed
  
• workforce-ageing-pension-reforms-and-firms-outcomes
  
• debt-natural-disasters-and-special-drawing-rights
  
• unwinding-covid-support-measures-banks
  
• does-sustainability-reduce-cost-capital
  
• inequality-benchmark-incomes
  
• working-home-developing-countries
  
• economic-preparation-next-pandemic
  

Problems with Nicole Flint

 Nicole Flint got up in parliament and made various allegations against a number of organisations. One included get up. They responded THUS.  

Unless Ms Flint can provide evidence then she has made untrue allegations in one instance. Each time she has made such an allegation it has been in Parliament , never out of it.

A few observations.

1. I find it highly ironic for a person who took no prisoners in South Australian politics is making such accusations. She was targeted because of this i.e. being part of the 'hard right'.
2. Get Up has no history of ever doing this in other electorates. Yes they do have people constantly questioning candidates but not abusing. Incidentally Get up is pretty poor at targeting MPS. They rarely succeeded last election.
3. Abusing people seems to resonate with extinction rebellion rather than get up. Ms Flint seems to conflates a whole raft of organisations showing again poor political understanding or lazy research.
4. Scott Morrison said he witnessed this. I find this strange as when a PM campaigns there are usually cameras arounds, at the very least a few journalists and people abusing a female candidate would be news. This did not occur on any TV stations I was watching and I watched the lot.

Land Tax. We should have it

 From what I call vox wonk a short but interesting articles entitled land-back-it-should-be-taxed-it-can-be-taxed

Kevin Bonham unloads

 Kevin Bonham unloads on a poll which was terrible for the ALP.

It is well worth a read and confirmed most of my suspicions.

what happened in WA?

 The WA election led to a HUGE win by the ALP. See HERE.

My only problem is no-one can explain the reasons on why this occurred.

Simply doing a good job with covid does not cut the mustard. The libs must have done something to be absolutely thrashed as they were. the combined swing across two election is something like  25% which is unheard of.

Why???

Around the Traps 12/3/21

 It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on qe-is-lobster-pot, stuck-with-crappy-aged-care-because-Morrison-won't-ask-us-to-pay-for-them
• renew economy on the-ever-shrinking-role-of-gas-in-australias-power-system, agl-has-second-crack-at-rooftop-solar-market-in-bid-to-catch-up-with-energy-transition, energyaustralia-says-yallourn-coal-generator-to-close-early-in-2028, massive-3-billion-wind-solar-and-battery-project-approved-in-south-australia
• Peter Martin on you-cant-fix-the-economy-if-you-cant-see-it-how-the-abs-became-our-secret-weapon
• Mark Limb and Cameron Murray on zoning-isnt-to-blame-for-australias-soaring-house-prices
• Kevin Davis on hard-bump-ahead-drop-in-insolvencies-and-bankruptcies-is-a-ticking-time-bomb
• Institutional Economics on the-weakest-link-wages-and-inflation
• Adam Morton on outcry-at-australias-coal-plant-closures-misses-the-point-change-is-coming
• Richard Holden on timing-of-yallourns-closure-shows-its-high-time-for-a-carbon-price
• Chris Briggs on the-death-of-coal-fired-power-is-inevitable-yet-the-government-still-has-no-plan-to-help-its-workforce
• Kevin Bonham on when-federal-polls-are-50-50-oppositions-rarely-win

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on are-market-expectations-of-inflation-rising, recent-developments-in-interest-rates-and-spreads
• the conversable economist on debt-and-deficits-nostalgia-for-1980s, the-case-for-more-activist-antitrust-policy, retail-investors-show-exuberance
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on hr1-republicans-voting-rights-fight
• Ian Millhiser on voting-rights-georgia-arizona-voting-by-mail-republican-absentee-donald-trump
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-inflation-soft-in-inflation
• David Graham on end-republican-party
• run75441 on making-healthcare-affordable
• Noah Smith on how-long-will-the-covid-recession Thanks Brad
• Bess Levin on donald-trump-manhattan-da-criminal-probe

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on the-left-after-the-budget, on-hans-in-luck-effects
• Mainly Macro on why-are-conservatives-so-bad-at-running-the-economy
• Jon Allsop on labours-leader-in-the-wilderness
• Coppolla comment on the-dismal-decade

Asia

• Bates Gill on endorsing-self-reliance-beijing-raises-geopolitical-stakes
• Adam Simpson and Nicholas Farrelly on as-killings-beatings-and-disappearances-escalate-whats-the-end-game-in-myanmar
• Roya Hakakarian on unveiling-iran
• Branko Milovanic and Max Roberts on chinas economic success
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-business-coups-and-china-s-quad-response

Wonk

• Tim Harford on the-hard-lessons-of-home-schooling, why-investing-in-data-is-money-well-spent
• Barkley Rosser on is-there-no-hope-for-muslim-social-democracy
• Ken Melvin on the-role-of-the-big-lie
• and Then Theres Physics on the-social-construction-of-science
• the conversable economist on intergenerational-mobility-and-neighbourhood-effects, whats-happening-with-global-connectness-in-the-pandemic
• Croaking Cassandra on negative-rates-and-the-option-of-more
• Iona Main on smarter-use-voting-technology-stop-election-related-violence

General

• Stephen Knight on my-favourite-detective-martin-hewitt-the-cheery-yet-gritty-antidote-to-sherlock-holmes

Climate

• Skeptical Science on Peter-Brannens-Paleo-Proxy-Twitter-Thread, texas-cant-blame-renewables
• John Carr and Tema Milstein on a-manatee-with-trump-scraped-into-its-back-was-itself-disturbing-but-it-reflects-a-deeper-environmental-problem
• Desmog on half-million-people-exposed-flaring-increased-health-risks-ucla-study

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• alan-sokal-on-exponential-growth-and-coronavirus-rebound
  
• this-one-pushes-all-my-buttons
  
• bayesian-methods-and-what-they-offer-compared-to-classical-econometrics
  
• what-is-the-landscape-of-uncertainty-outside-the-clinical-trials-methods
  
• there-is-such-a-thing-as-eurocentric-science
  
• ahhhh-cornell
  
• from-socrates-to-darwin-and-beyond-what-children-can-teach-us-about-the-human-mind
  
• the-presumption-of-wisdom-and-or-virtue-causes-intellectuals-to-personalize-situations-where-contending-ideas-are-involved
  
• it-was-a-year-ago-today
  
• regression-discontinuity-analysis-is-often-a-disaster-so-what-should-you-do-instead-do-we-just-give-up-on-the-whole-natural-experiment-idea-heres-my-recommendation
  
• the-social-sciences-are-useless-so-why-do-we-study-them-heres-a-good-reason
  
• no-i-dont-like-talk-of-false-positive-false-negative-etc-but-it-can-still-be-useful-to-warn-people-about-systematic-biases-in-meta-analysis
  
• Kaiser Fung on real-world-studies-how-to-interpret-them, real-world-studies-limits-of-knowledge, the-confusing-pictures-in-israel-and-in-the-israel-study, saying-it-again-timing-traps
• statschat on briefly

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on network-cluster-robust-inference
• Freakometrics on autocalibration for insurance pricing with machine learning

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• n
• Michael Wesley on her-brilliant-career
• Tyler Cowen on the-scout-mindset-why-some-people-see-things-clearly-and-others-dont, what-ive-been-reading
• Peter Tregear on book-review-open-minds-explores-how-academic-freedom-and-the-public-university-are-at-risk

Vox Wonk

• informality-and-effects-trade-developing-countries
  
• firms-exporting-behaviour-countries-under-sanctions
  
• sick-stay-home
  
• what-academics-think-central-banks-current-inflation-targets-and-other-objectives
  
• mayoral-accountability-and-provision-policing
  
• politics-and-gender-executive-suite
  
• opening-k-12-schools-us-no-mask-requirement-staff-may-increase-spread-covid-19
  
• rules-based-fiscal-frameworks-under-stress
  
• health-toll-import-competition
  
• supply-chains-and-trade-flows-volatility-face-global-shocks
  
• ecb-s-green-agenda
  
• bank-performance-time-covid-19
  
• why-educated-parents-have-healthier-children-environmental-versus-genetic-factors
  

coal fired power stations going going gone

 The dirtiest and possibly most unreliable coal fired power station is being retired early. See HERE and HERE

This is not surprising, renewables costs makes them uneconomic. they have large servicing costs because they break down so often. This plant had units breaking down over 50 times since 2017.

Now just remember existing coal fired power plants have around half the costs of NEW ones. coal fired  power stations have no future in Australia. Their pollution kill people and their emissions drives the temperature upwards as we have written about in the past.

See also HERE and HERE

Four Corners was superb

 The only story in town is the alleged rape by the Attorney General.

Four corners explored the issue last night.  If you watched the episode then you know what the allegations are, What Porter's defence is. why there cannot be a police investigation. finally we had the different views on whether there should be an independent inquiry or not.

Perhaps I should add in Mediawatch. Paul Barry told us there had been a trial by media.  Unfortunately we essentially only had Andrew Bolt and his mates at sky after dark as evidence. Naturally the points put up by Bolt  were either wrong  or easily explainable.

The NSW Police have a lot to explain

 The NSW police have a mixed record. Way too strict when the lockdown was on. do you remember the jogger who was fined when he decided to eat a Lebanese roll on a seat in a park.

I have written on a few cases involving police here that were either very stupid or police were behaving badly  which is HERE

i have also written about its police commissioner mick Fuller talking porkies and behaving as a politician not a commissioner HERE and HERE.

In the alleged rape case involving a federal politician Police had the lady wanting to make a stateement in February 2000. By June The girl gave up and said forget but was very gracious about it. The next day she took her own life.

What were the NSW police thinking about? Here is a lady alleging a vicious rape yet NSW Police thought it to hard to get a statement because of covid. There were lots of avenues to proceed with but it was way too much for the police to proceed with.

That statement would have meant a police investigation. It is altogether ironic that it could very well been a similar conclusion top the allegation against Bill Shorten. We will never know.

It is a disgrace

Around the Traps 5/3/21

 it is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on the-jobdobber-hotline-is-another-policy-aimed-at-keeping-wages-low, australias-economy-is-recovering-but-remains-very-much-in-need-of-government-stimulus
• Anna Howe on aged-care-death-and-taxes-after-the-royal-commission
• Ross Gittins on funding-budget-by-printing-money-is-closer-than-you-think, only-bipartisanship-will-let-us-relieve-us-of-the-squaller-of-aged-care
• Institutional Economics on the-bond-market-versus-yield-curve, updating-australias-business-cycle
• Neal Hughes on water-markets-arent-perfect-but-they-are-vital-to-the-future-of-the-murray-darling
• Stephen Duckett and Anita Stobart on 4-key-takeaways-from-the-aged-care-royal-commissions-final-report
• Kevin Bonham on the-howard-aggregation-1993-1996
• Sam Roggeveen on how-far-would-australia-go-defence-rules-based-order
• renew economy on aemo-abandons-plan-to-model-gas-led-recovery-after-idea-panned-by-energy-market, aemc-looks-beyond-coal-to-batteries-and-flexible-grid-to-manage-reliability
• Peter Martin on gdp-is-v-shaped-but-not-yet-good-these-three-graphs-tell-the-story
• Dennis Muller on has-christian-porter-been-subjected-to-a-trial-by-media-no-the-media-did-its-job-of-being-a-watchdog
• Jennifer Hsu on politics-being-chinese-australia
• Croaking Cassandra on no-idea-apparently-probably-not-much-interest
• Anabelle Lukin on can-scott-morrisons-rhetorical-style-cut-through-the-rising-tide-of-anger
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-in-the-battle-over-interest-rates-itd-be-unwise-to-bet-against-the-rba
• Rick Sarre on where-do-we-go-from-here-with-the-allegations-about-christian-porter

Northern America

• the conversable economist on the-coming-evolution-electric-power-in-the-US
• Ben Mathis-Lilley on andrew-cuomo-sowing-reaping
• David Graham on americas-andrew-cuomo-problem
• Darryl Pinkney on obama-promised-land-gift-long-game
• Kaleigh Rogers and Geoffrey Skelley on how-someone-like-marjorie-taylor-greene-could-win-again
• Menzie Chinn on a-literature-review-on-economic-policy-response-to-covid-19

Europe

• Mainly Macro on the-budget-should-create-balanced-recovery
• James empty blog on blueskiesresearchorguk-escape-velocity

Asia

• Graeme Smith on erasing-memory-china-s-tibet
• Michael Beltran on duterte-dynasty
• Anita Singh on india-must-be-realistic-about-russia-relations
• Menzie Chinn on the-rmbs-progress-in-internationalization
• Henry Storey on cracks-beginning-appear-russia-india-relationship

Wonk

• stumbling and mumbling on noise-interests-democracy, a-defence-of-maths-in-economics
• the grumpy economist on r-g
• Arindrajit Dube on impacts_of_minimum_wages_review_of_the_international_evidence thanks Brad
• John Quiggin on too-many-choices
• the conversable economist on teaching-current-monetary-policy
• Uneasy Money on the-hawley-smoot-tariff-and-the-great-depression

General

• Mardi McLean et al on life-on-the-hidden-doughnuts-of-the-great-barrier-reef-is-also-threatened-by-climate-change
• Roslyn Petelin on youse-wouldnt-believe-it-a-new-book-charts-the-11-year-making-of-a-peoples-dictionary-for-australia

Climate

• real science on laschamps-ing-at-the-bit
• and Then Theres Physics on losing-the-sky, net-zero

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• meg-wolitzer-and-george-v-higgins
  
• i-looked-for-questions-on-the-polio-vaccine-and-saw-one-in-1954-that-asked-if-you-wanted-to-get-it-60-said-yes-and-31-no
  
• here-is-how-you-should-title-the-next-book-you-write
  
• whats-the-best-novel-ever-written-by-an-85-year-old
  
• drew-bailey-on-backward-causal-questions-and-forward-causal-inference
  
• statistical-fallacies-in-international-relations-from-bob-jervis
  
• a-new-approach-to-pandemic-control-by-informing-people-of-their-social-distance-from-exposure
  
• marshmallow-update
  
• earliest-known-uses-of-some-of-the-words-of-mathematics
  
• statschat on trusting-the-wrong-data, is-four-a-lot

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on improved-measurement-of-real-gdp

Dianne Coyle ( quirky - book reviews)

• where-is-the-internet
  

vox wonk

• friedman-vs-phillips-historic-divide
  
• what-happens-if-bitcoin-succeeds
  
• comeback-r-g
  
• worldwide-building-height-gaps-their-determinants-and-their-implications
  
• antitrust-markets-pharmaceutical-industry
  
• oil-markets-fracking-and-global-economy
  
• us-excess-savings-are-not-excessive
  
• africa-s-manufacturing-puzzle-evidence-tanzanian-and-ethiopian-firms
  
• grandparental-childcare-and-covid-19
  
• assessing-aggregate-and-spatial-economic-impact-global-warming
  
• us-business-dynamism-rises
  
• information-sharing-and-geography-banking
  
• ai-and-jobs-evidence-us-vacancies
  
• how-institutional-investment-funds-reach-yield-intensifies-asset-price-volatility
  
• will-schumpeter-catch-covid-19-evidence-france
  
• person-schooling-and-community-spread-covid-19
  

Porter is in a precarious position

 Well Porter outed himself as the man behind the alleged rape.

first could someone tell me why the NSW police did not have a zoom interview with the woman concerned so there would be admissible evidence. This on the surface shows the NSW police quite incompetent.

The next thing is I do not want my first law officer of the land having this hanging over his head it must be resolved. Indeed I doubt whether he can remain as the first law officer. If he was merely minister for industrial relations there would be few problems but not attorney general.

The big thing is the dead lady in question says a violent rape occurred. Porter says they were not even amorous. One of the people is lying.

Unfortunately for Porter we know from her friends this incident changed her personality and proved an incident she could never recover from. It is why she suffered from Depression.

We need an independent inquiry headed up by a judger learned in criminal law. That person can discern who are credible witnesses and who is not. A decision can be made on the balance of probabilities. Porter does not seem to understand unless he is cleared he has no future nor any credibility.  See HERE for example.

THIS is useful. As is THIS

A few things on Australian politics

 

There is a lot happening so here goes.

1. The government has increased job seeker. A few people are not impressed. HERE and HERE. I am one of those. It quite clearly needs to be above the poverty line. It isn't transient income for all either.
2. the aged Care report is out. THIS is a good article on it.  I do not think you could introduce a NDIS solution to Aged Care. the vast majority of people over 85 have dementia. They cannot live at home unlike people with a disability.
3.  The rape allegation against a Cabinet minister in the current government has shown up again of Morrison not knowing what to do but spin. It is the NSW  police that should be informed not the AFP. Morrison has an obligation to set up an inquiry headed by a former judge learned in criminal law. It is untenable a persons with this allegation hanging over them does not have that matter investigated. although it is unlikely though not impossible much will come of the police investigation because the victim is dead.. He should also out himself as Bill Shorten did although it is not hard to figure out who it is!. Talking of Shorten we also have a similar allegation against a male ALP member . This becomes much more problematic. they are not in government. That cannot call on past judges nor have government revenue pay for it. My guess is if the Victorian police investigate and find no case to answer as with Shorten that will be the end of it.\\

postscript:

If Morrison does not announce an independent inquiry i am sure the man will be  named in Parliament.