Friedman V Phillips

 A fascinating but short article on this old argument. Central Banks have abandoned both policies.

Around the Traps 26/2/21

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on australias-recovery-appears-to-be-going-well-but-its-still-very-weird-out-there, the-jobseeker-increase-is-pathetic-and-so-is-the-spin-to-justify-the-paltry-amount
• David Walker on cracking-the-code-how-to-tell-what-news-corp-really-thinks-about-the-price-of-links
• core economics on australia-surrenders-to-monopolists-and-codifies-corporate-oligarchy
• Joshua Gans on facebook-versus-australia-the-government-hands-facebook-a-free-pass
• Ross Garnaut on the-reset-to-lift-us-out-of-the-covid-recession-has-to-be-bold-returning-to-where-we-were-is-nowhere-near-good-enough
• Dennis Muller on is-sky-news-shifting-australian-politics-to-the-right-not-yet-but-there-is-cause-for-alarm
• Ross Gittins on heres-unspeakable-truth-about-fall-in-rates, ross-garnauts-new-plan-to-lift-us-out-of-mediocrity
• renew economy on australias-battery-and-hydrogen-storage-pipeline-jumped-by-massive-20gw-in-2020
• Croaking Cassandra on monetary-policy, not-that-good-really
• Ketan Joshi on australia-was-the-first-casualty-of-the-big-blackout-lie-blaming-wind-power-the-us-could-be-next
• Simon Wilke on the-news-media-bargaining-code-could-backfire-if-small-media-outlets-arent-protected-an-economist-explains
• Hassan Vally on catching-covid-from-surfaces-is-very-unlikely-so-perhaps-we-can-ease-up-on-the-disinfecting
• renew economy on coal-generators-fined-after-failing-to-match-big-batteries-and-putting-grid-at-risk, tidal-wave-of-new-wind-and-solar-will-force-early-coal-plant-closures, neoen-lands-160-million-in-cefc-finance-for-australias-biggest-battery
• Adam Morton on renewable-energy-could-render-five-of-australias-remaining-coal-plants-unviable-by-2025
• Barbara Morton et al on fires-bring-home-climate-driven-urgency-of-rethinking-where-we-live-and-how
• Charles Livingstone on melbourne-finally-has-a-crown-royal-commission-is-this-going-to-stop-crime-and-gambling-harm
• Peter Whiteford and Bruce Bradbury on the-50-boost-to-jobseeker-will-take-australias-payment-from-the-lowest-in-the-oecd-to-the-second-lowest-after-greece
• John Quiggin on facebook-versus-news-advertising-is-the-real-problem
• Tim Nelson and Joel Gilmore on the-texas-deep-freeze-left-the-state-in-crisis-here-are-3-lessons-for-australia
• Michael McGreevey and Fran Baum on against-the-odds-south-australia-is-a-renewable-energy-powerhouse-how-on-earth-did-they-do-it
• Bruce Mountain on texas-was-a-warning-australia-needs-to-rethink-the-design-of-its-electricity-market

Northern America

• Cameron Peters on texas-high-electric-bills-winter-storm-griddy
• Mark Joseph Stern on clarence-thomas-voter-fraud-trump-pennsylvania
• Steve from Brisbane on waving-bloody-shirt
• Geoffrey Skulley on why-was-the-national-polling-environment-so-off-in-2020
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-january-new-home-sales
• Lucas Schaeffer on texas-gerrymandering-freeze-power-outages-chip-roy
• Robert Gordon on robert-j-gordon-thoughts-on-long-run-us-productivity-growth
• Tyler Cowen on texas-utilities-should-have-had-more-dynamic-pricing
• Menzie Chinn on globalization-and-inflation-risks
• Laurence Tribe on justice-thomas-is-out-of-order-on-2020-election

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on why-labour-should-talk-about-productivity

Asia

• Andrew Selth on myanmar-coup-will-test-loyalty-security-forces
• Barkley Rosser on is-china-committing-genocide-in-xinjiang
• Natasha Kassam and Darren Lim on how-china-is-remaking-the-world-in-its-vision
• Syed Fazl E Haider on leave-or-not-leave-question
• Oriana Mastro on what-are-china-s-leaders-saying-about-south-china-sea

Wonk

• Tim Harford on were-living-in-a-golden-age-of-ignorance
• the conversable economist on the-minimum-wage-controversy
• Macromania on a-journey-in-macroeconomic-thinking
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-central-bank-digital-currency-some-macro-financial-implications
• Dominic Dwyer on i-was-the-australian-doctor-on-the-whos-covid-19-mission-to-china-heres-what-we-found-about-the-origins-of-the-coronavirus
• Sam Roggeveen on democracy-vs-autocracy-biden-inflection-point
• Mainly Macro on two-paths-to-controlling-covid-with-vaccinations
• Alex Tabbarok on the-astrazeneca-vaccine-works-well

General

• Mark Pellegrini on can-i-choose-what-vaccine-i-get-what-if-i-have-allergies-or-side-effects-key-covid-vaccine-rollout-questions-answered

Climate

• No Hesitations on amazing-warming-paper
• Peter Sinclair on mike-mann-on-climate-change-and-cold-air-outbreaks
• Desmog on why-united-states-rejoining-paris-climate-accord-matters
• Skeptical Science on climate lessons from the texas frozen power outages
• Dana Bergstrom et al on existential-threat-to-our-survival-see-the-19-australian-ecosystems-already-collapsing

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• fake-data-simulation-why-does-it-work-so-well
  
• is-sqrt2-a-normal-number
  
• statisticians-dont-use-statistical-evidence-to-decide-what-statistical-methods-to-use-also-the-way-of-the-physicist
  
• ethics-washing-ethics-bashing
  
• rapid-prepublication-peer-review
  
• what-is-the-relevance-of-bad-science-to-our-understanding-of-good-science
  
• should-we-judge-pundits-based-on-their-demonstrated-willingness-to-learn-from-their-mistakes
  
• men-appear-twice-as-often-as-women-in-news-photos-on-facebook
  
• science-reform-can-get-so-personal
  
• stanford-prison-experiment
  
• multivariate-missing-data-software-update
  
• statschat on bitcoin-and-eftpos

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on principal component analysis
• No Hesitations on bridging-sparse-models-and-factor-models

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• big-conversations
  
• railways-and-culture
  
• Andrew Gelman on luc-sante-on-nick-hornby-and-geoffrey-obrien-on-pop-music

vox wonk

• pandemics-swing-elections-not-much-you-think
  
• geography-innovation-between-1866-and-today
  
• refugees-and-responsibility-sharing
  
• institutions-and-power-structure
  
• subnational-governments-and-making-development-africa
  
• institutions-and-power-structure
  
• why-us-currently-has-best-research-universities-incentives-resources-and-virtuous-circles
  
• jim-crow-saddle
  
• three-changes-regulatory-framework-renewable-energy-help-save-humanity-s-future
  
• pandemic-and-greece-s-debt-day-after
  
• shaping-africa-s-post-covid-recovery-new-ebook
  
• how-much-capital-should-banks-hold
  
• ecb-monetary-policy-communications-and-financial-market-responses
  
• firm-exit-patterns-and-post-covid-cleansing-mechanism
  

coal fired power stations earlier than thought closures?

 renew economy has an article on the possible early closure of coal fired power plants.

Just imagine they are too costly, less flexible and are the reason AEMO dreads black outs. Related to this is how we attempt to get our grid to be flexible enough to cope with climate change as see in THIS article.

I should mention windmills can work quite well in the cold. Steve from Brisbane has photographs to show that. They simply have to be 'winterised'

Added bonus against-the-odds-south-australia-is-a-renewable-energy-powerhouse-how-on-earth-did-they-do-it

The fight with Google and Facebook

 David Walker does us all a favour and explains this in intricate detail.

Feeling Old: Children growing up

 both my boys are now working fulltime.

My oldest chose a long route. My wife encouraged him to get into nursing. He is very good with people however this did not work out. This was his turning point. He started on nightfill. He got good at and was even offered the managers job. Absurd at his age. However the best part of the job was finding out there are bad bosses. He started studying community services at TAFE. He enjoyed the course and was offered a job following his placement. He is now very much enjoying himself and studying the degree in community services.

My youngest son got a scholarship to study accounting at UTS. In this he had two six months periods of internship where you work but do not get paid and he did do work. In one instance he flew top Rockhampton! He also did well academically. In half his subjects he gained distinctions and the other half high distinctions. He best me in all my studies!! He is now working at Korda Mentha which is where he wanted to work and I also. He has a good strategic mind and it will eventually used in this field.

Alas both will at some time move from home which I will find very hard.

The times they are a changing

I am feeling a tad guilty

 Okay I had a mild heart attack. however I was walking easily before and after the attack.

I was conscious when a stent was put in to ensure the blood goes through my heart easily. I only saw a nurse at home for a short while until it was agreed I did not need the visits. 
I was in good health. I cannot mow the grass or take out the garbage because it will put too much pressure on me so I am here at home resting and recuperating.

Thank the Lord we have Kayo and Netflix. I would go bonkers if not.

I picked up all the polls I need and it cost close to $100. Not to worry i can easily afford that.

I feel guilty because I feel too well. I will be umpiring whilst essentially on holidays although not driving for two weeks is a bummer. I can afford the pills most but but all I will be taking for the rest of my life.

What if both were not the case? 

No Around the Traps

 I do apologise but there is no around the traps this week.

for the first half of the week I was in hospital unable to access the internet. since I have been home There has been too much time involved in following up for why I was in hospital despite me thinking I am in great health!!

I fell I should comment on what occurred to Brittany Higgins.  

What happened was disgraceful.  It appears what happened after she reported this involved how to protect the Liberal party rather than helping  Miss Higgins.  This is still happening. 

Does anyone believe Morrison was not informed of this just before he announced an election. Just remember backgrounding is not spontaneous. It is clearly thought out before it is done.

This again is evidence that Morrison's knowledge of Christianity is very poor.

Parliament needs to introduce codes of safety for employees that work there very quickly. I would also support a credible person to investigate the whole matter. Prue Goward comes to mind.

Texas and Energy

 I finally had time to examine what occurred in Texas.

Here are two different articles.

The economist

Peter Sinclair

the Atlantic

the New York magazine

The Week

( thanks to Steve from Brisbane for the last two)

Steve from Brisbane

New Yorker

Kruggers

So in Texas they did not think they would ever get a cold snap like they did. If only they had understood global warming they would have. for example they would have gotten wind turbines which would have worked right through most of the cold snap. However the cold snap heavily affected energy coming from fossil fuels with gas most highly affected.

I had a heart attack

 On Saturday morning around 3 am I got up to have a drink of water.  I had a slight pain in my chest. I had this on a few occasions previously but it always went away rather quickly.

This time it did not go away. My youngest son was not amused. ( My oldest son and wife were at Blayney visiting her mother.) He told me to toughen up however I told him I wanted him to drive me to Ryde hospital.

I was ushered in and given several tests. I asked when i might go home as I was Umpiring on both days of the weekend. The nurse told me I would not be umpiring anywhere on the weekend and I was only alive because of my quick action in getting to the hospital. 

I was transported to Royal North Shore by ambulance because they had cardiologists.

It was a mild heart attack but only because I got to the hospital quickly.

I now have to take various pills for the rest of my life and change  my lifestyle somewhat.

I am now home but taking things rather easily.

Around the Traps 12/2/21

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on philip-lowe-is-right-raising-jobseeker-is-not-just-about-good-economics-its-about-fairness, australias-climate-policy-is-a-mix-of-delusion-and-denial-we-need-to-get-real
• Ross Gittins on rba-governor-abounds-in-optimism-about-economy, the-official-forecasters-latest-guess-is-whistling-in-the-dark, canberras-latest-innovation-politics
• Kevin Bonham on how-much-does-home-state-federal-leader-matter-in-that-state
• Bruce Mountain on write-down-shows-agl-has-read-the-writing-on-the-wall
• Simon Holmes A'Court on australias-electric-vehicle-policy-steers-us-to-a-future-based-on-fossil-fuels-it-needs-to-be-dumped
• Tony Walker on australia-has-a-great-chance-to-engage-in-trade-diplomacy-with-china-and-it-must-take-it
• Rachelle Meyer on nationals-push-to-carve-farming-from-a-net-zero-target-is-misguided-and-dangerous
• Croaking Cassandra on not-really
• Renew economy on south-australia-achieves-world-leading-60pct-wind-and-solar-share-over-last-year, aemo-names-uk-based-renewable-energy-and-transition-expert-as-new-ceo, agl-promises-urgent-rethink-as-batteries-evs-take-off-and-coal-profits-sink
• Katherine Murphy on australias-climate-wars-were-always-stupid-now-theyve-got-even-dumber
• Ann Davies on productivity-commission-says-new-australian-water-deal-must-recognise-climate-change
• Charles Livingstone on not-suitable-where-to-now-for-james-packer-and-crowns-other-casinos
• Catherine Bennett on yes-a-16-day-incubation-period-for-covid-is-possible-but-its-extremely-rare
• Andrew Stewart rt alon low-wage-low-growth-porters-industrial-relations-bill-is-only-good-in-parts
• Institutional Economics on re-opening-fortress-australia?
• Quentin Grafton on our-national-water-policy-is-outdated-unfair-and-not-fit-for-climate-challenges-major-new-report
• Tim Stephens on mr-morrison-please-dont-make-empty-promises-enshrine-our-climate-targets-in-law

Northern America

• Robert Waldmann on debt-and-summers-ii
• Eric Kramer on tyler-cowen-does-political-romance-on-minimum-wages-and-covid-relief, information-or-propaganda-more-cowen-on-minimum-wages
• Laura Brunner on a-majority-of-americans-want-to-bar-trump-from-office
• Li Zhou on trump-impeachment-trial-poll
• Fintan O'Toole on trump-inheritance
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-inflation-soft-in-January
• Noahopinion on larry-summers-misplaced-stimulus Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on fighting covid is like fighting a war Thanks Brad
• Richard Holden on what-if-bidens-1-9-trillion-stimulus-plan-is-too-big
• David Frum on there-is-no-defense-only-complicity

Europe

• long and variable on should-mervyn-recuse-himself-from-the-house-of-lords-economic-affairs-committee-enquiry-on-qe
• stumbling and mumbling on labours-patriotism-problem

Asia

• Adam Simpson on myanmar-calling-coup-coup
• Edmond Roy on crushing-dissent-new-paranoid-india
• Phyu Phyu Oo on importance-myanmar-s-pots-and-pans-protests
• Zachary Haver on ccp-governance-comes-south-china-sea

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-what-the-gamestop-bubble-says-about-financial-markets
• David Kessler and Peter Temin on money and prices in the roman empire  dated Thanks Brad
• Tim Harford on florence-nightingale-the-pandemic-hero-we-need, covid-19-how-close-is-the-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel
• John Quiggin on climate-conspiracy-classical-liberalism-and-q-anon
• Coppolla comment on democracy-wont-save-you
• Mainly Macro on media-radicalisation-in-us-and-uk
• Andrea Wong on vaccine-nationalism-rich-nations-must-also-care-poor
• the conversable economist on how-to-regulate-railroad
• Barkley Rosser on is-bitcoin-really-real-money, judges-and-ideology
• Tyler Cowen on full-employment-and-the-output-gap

General

• Ann Twomey on the-queens-gambit-new-evidence-shows-how-her-majesty-wields-influence-on-legislation

Climate

• David Appell on how-melting-sea-ice-and-shelves-raises-sea-levels
• and Then Theres Physics on agricultural-emissions
• Moyhu on global-surface-templs-same-as-december
• Stochastic Trend on energy-and-economic-growth-updated-animation

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• how-to-incorporate-new-data-into-our-understanding-sturgis-rally-example
  
• nudgelords
  
• better-data-visualizations-a-guide-for-scholars-researchers-and-wonks
  
• my-thoughts-on-whats-wrong-with-social-science-and-how-to-fix-it-reflections-after-reading-2578-papers
  
• how-to-track-covid-using-hospital-data-collection-and-mrp
  
• maybe-we-shouldve-called-it-arianna
  
• further-comments-on-assessing-mandatory-stay-at -home-and-business-closure-effects-on-the-spread-of-covid
  
• scaling-regression-inputs-by-dividing-by-two-standard-deviations
  
• reflections-on-lakatoss-proofs-and-refutations
  
• let-them-log-scale
  
• Kaiser Fung on notes-on-astrazeneca-oxford-vaccine-trial-results-2, notes-on-the-astrazeneca-oxford-vaccine-trial-results-3-its-raining-numbers, detour-to-the-world-of-make-believe
• scaling-regression-inputs-by-dividing-by-two-standard-deviations
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-are-the-most-important-statistical-ideas-of-the-past-50-years

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on ai-machine-learning-and-big-data-in-finance-and-economics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• millions-europeans-would-fall-vulnerability-without-covid-19-unemployment-benefits
  
• unemployment-benefits-job-match-quality-and-labour-market-functioning
  
• effectiveness-national-expenditure-rules
  
• wage-risk-and-government-and-spousal-insurance
  
• information-and-preferences-school-choice
  
• after-brexit-igm-forum-survey
  
• fostering-diffusion-general-purpose-technologies
  
• inflation-and-biden-stimulus
  
• macroeconomic-stabilisation-lower-bound-and-inflation-expectations-matter
  
• robots-and-employment-evidence-japan
  
• post-covid-inflation-risks-uk
  
• green-bridges-reconnecting-europe-avoid-economic-disaster
  
• monetary-policy-and-racial-inequality
  
• europe-s-trade-strategy-age-geoeconomic-globalisation
  
• memo-new-wto-director-general-never-waste-crisis
  
• dangers-sustainability-metrics
  
• flattening-curve-pandemic-induced-revaluation-urban-real-estate
  
• geography-working-home-and-implications-service-industry
  
• veto-player-theory-and-governance-recovery-and-resilience-facility
  

covid variances

 not a lot of time today but here is an interesting article.

uk-south-african-brazilian-a-virologist-explains-each-covid-variant-and-what-they-mean-for-the-pandemic

The Republicans confirm they are nuts.

 Two recent developments show republicans in a very poor light.

They have a complete nutter  as a member of congress from Georgia. I am talking about Majorie Taylor-Greene. a Qanon supporter and more. 

Then we have Lynne  Cheney who voted to impeach Trump. Guess which one was asked to apologise for her action and was reprimanded.  you guessed it Lynne Cheney.  Well most of them are so stupid they believe voter fraud led to Biden's election

The republicans should be very wary. They are travelling very fast down the road to which Corbyn and his followers led the British Labor party.

What is going on? Noah Smith has a theory vie Steve from Brisbane

US voter Fraud

 Master Statman Andrew Gelman allows us to not only read a paper that refutes voter fraud occurred in their last presidential election.

Read both articles and the comments both at the hoover Institute and and Andrews's site. The question is why are some people soooo STUPID.

Around the Traps 5/2/21

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Burnett on a-major-report-excoriated-australias-environment-laws-sussan-leys-response-is-confused-and-risky
• Kaz Ross on china-and-australian-far-right
• Kevin Bonham on newspoll-surprise-2pp-tie-takes-the-heat-off-Albanese
• Greg Jericho on australia-needs-to-stop-thinking-that-setting-a-target-of-zero-emissions-by-2050-is-good-enough
• John Hawkins on the-reserve-bank-might-yet-go-negative
• Ross Gittins on whatever-our-other-problems-theres-much-less-crime
• renew economy on next-three-years-will-be-huge-for-big-wind-and-solar-projects-in-australia, morrison-is-offering-more-of-the-same-indefinite-climate-delay-as-time-runs-out, dont-forget-consumers-aemo-told-as-it-tries-to-meet-engineering-challenges, transmission-projects-in-doubt-after-aemc-rejects-financing-rule-change, how-agl-lost-nearly-2-billion-from-its-early-push-into-wind-farms, cep-plans-worlds-biggest-battery-at-kurri-kurri-to-deflate-morrisons-gas-dreams
• Peter Martin on reserve-bank-governor-not-for-turning-no-rate-hike-until-unemployment-near-4-5
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-we-are-on-the-way-back-but-there-are-risks-at-every-tur
• Institutional Economics on australian-inflation-targeting
• Croaking Cassandra on reforming-the-reserve-bank-continued

Northern America

• Keen Melvin on how-we-got-here
• noahopinion on insurrection-thoughts
• Geoffrey Skelley on why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too
• Menzie Chinn on cbo-outlook-and-the-output-gap, a-review-of-minimum-wage-effects
• Julia Azari on the-gop-might-still-be-trumps-party-but-that-doesnt-mean-theres-room-for-him
• Samuel Sinyangwe on the-biden-administration-wants-to-address-racial-bias-in-policing-what-cities-should-it-investigate

Europe

• Mainly Macro on why-vaccines-alone-are-not-enough
• William Partlett on by-jailing-alexei-navalny-the-kremlin-may-turn-him-into-an-even-more-potent-opposition-symbol
• Eglantine Staunton on macron-and-biden-friends-allied-not-aligned
• Marcus Colla on germany-s-ordinary-new-world

Asia

• Barkley Rosser on is-china-now-number-one
• Rodger Shanahan on syrian-stasis
• Aristyo Darmawan on why-indonesia-s-seizure-iranian-tanker-purely-domestic-law
• Adam Simpson and Adam Farrelly on myanmars-military-reverts-to-its-old-strong-arm-behaviour-and-the-country-takes-a-major-step-backwards
• Bhavani Shankar on why-indian-farmers-are-so-angry-about-the-modi-governments-agricultural-reforms
• Henry Storey on history-haunts-japan-south-korea-ties

Wonk

• Uneasy Money on on-the-price-specie-flow-mechanism
• Brad De Long on hayek-and-einstein
• and Then Theres Physics on anti-virus
• Tim Harford on what-can-we-learn-from-the-great-working-from-home-experiment
• long and variable on new-piece-in-prospect-on-vaccine-nationalism
• stumbling and mumbling on on-attitudes-to-risk, hedge-fund-humbugs
• Nick Gruen on the-toyota-production-system-a-milestone-and-revelation-in-human-affairs-or-a-rightward-shift-of-the-supply-curve
• Tyler Cowen on the-effects-of-fluoride-in-drinking-water
• Alyssa Leng and Herve Lemahieu on looking-for-keys-covid-success
• the conversable economist on why-high-income-economies-need-to-fight-covid-everywhere
• John Quiggin on wallstreetbets-and-financialised-capitalism
• Alex Tabbarok on first-doses-first-new-information
• Uneasy Money on the-real-bills-doctrine-the-lender-of-last-resort-and-the-scope-of-banking
• David Walker on the-rise-of-moral-bubbles

General

• Hazel Richards et al on this-unique-ancient-megabeast-had-perpetually-bent-elbows
• Katherine Ross and Natasha Hurley on scintillating-discovery-these-distant-baby-black-holes-seem-to-be-misbehaving-and-experts-are-perplexed

Climate

• Skeptical Science on a-climate-bet-impossible-to-lose
• David Appell on antarctic-sea-ice-extent-coming-back
• Real Climate on dont-climate-bet-against-the-house
• Stoat on the-dim-and-distant-history-of-global-warming-sea-ice-warming

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• small-steps-to-accuracy-incremental-updaters-are-better-forecasters
  
• about-that-claim-that-sars-cov-2-is-not-a-natural-zoonosis-but-instead-is-laboratory-derived
  
• social-penumbras-predict-political-attitudes
  
• the-data-detective-by-tim-harford
  
• will-the-pandemic-cause-a-decline-in-births-well-be-able-to-resolve-this-particular-debate-in-about-9-months
  
• one-more-cartoon-like-this-and-this-blog-will-be-obsolete
  
• new-research-suggests-targeting-interventions-including-transmission-blocking-vaccines-to-adults-aged-20-49-is-an-important-consideration-in-halting-resurgent-epidemics-and-pre
  
• there-ya-go-preregistered-within-subject-multilevel
  
• the-story-time-is-to-lull-us-in-with-a-randomized-controlled-experiment-and-as-we-fall-asleep-feed-us-less-reliable-conclusions-that-come-from-an-embedded-observational-study
  
• where-in-your-education-were-you-taught-about-intellectual-honesty
  
• justin-grimmer-vs-the-hoover-institution-commenters
  
• statschat on vaccines-new-and-very-new

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on machine-learning-for-realized-volatility-forecasting

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• big-tech-the-contrarian-view
  
• is-weird-wonderful
  
• Ross Gittins on how-economics-could-get-better-at-solving-real-world-problems
• 
  
• Alex Tabarrok on what-i-have-been-reading
• docs books on the-man-who-ran-washington-the-life-and-times-of-james-baker-iii-by-peter-baker-and-susan-glasser

Vox Wonk

• pooled-procurement-drugs-low-and-middle-income-countries-can-lower-prices-and-improve-access
  
• deposits-channel-monetary-policy-critical-review
  
• access-vocational-education-can-boost-income-over-long-term
  
• how-financial-markets-shape-social-values-and-political-views
  
• what-we-can-learn-about-economics-professional-sport-during-covid-19
  
• central-bank-digital-currencies-risk-becoming-gigantic-flop
  
• regulation-chills-minor-not-radical-technological-innovations
  
• how-regulatory-sandboxes-help-fintechs-raise-funding
  
• pandemic-induced-automation-and-labour-market-disparities-covid-19
  
• school-openings-affect-local-covid-19-diffusion
  
• exchange-rates-invoicing-and-prices
  
• negative-effects-tariffs-downstream-sectors
  
• disunited-kingdom-brexit-trade-and-scottish-independence
  
• family-ties-and-pandemics-evidence-covid-19
  
• historical-perspective-china-s-success-against-poverty
  
• helicopter-money-another-pandemic-recession-venice-1630
  
• covid-rages-bankruptcy-cases-fall
  

some TV Shows

 I need some light relief.

Here are some TV shows I have watched.

The Good Doctor

The new season started here is Sydanee and the two part episode was an absolute bewdy. It was all about Covid. It showed how it affects, doctors, patients, close fiends and relationships when working from home.

I will be interested to see if the second part is as good as the first part. I have to say I do think this series is near its end.  A series based on a surgeon who is autistic and has savant syndrome is always lookibng shaky as a 'long term' series.

Brooklyn 99

I only got onto this very recently courtesy of my two sons and I cannot let it go. If you do not have netflix then forget it. Think of the Office only in a police department. Like the Office ( US edition) it is funny which is unusual for a yank comedy.. I am only at season 2 but simply cannot stop watching it. 

Wild Bill

I watched the first episode and was indifferent. That is it wasn't great but it wasn't bad either. Rob Lowe stars as a highly educated Yank who comes to England to head up one of its regional police units. I wil be watching the series to see how it goes.

Albo and a new poll

 I read here and there about people in the ALP caucus are worried about Albo's leadership.

He is not cutting through I read. Okay what is this based on. not the polls which has shown a very close contest. Here is Kevin Bonham on the latest Newspoll.

Now let us take a step backward. The polls got it horribly wrong on the last election. I have written quite a few articles on this. no-one but no-one knows why the last election was won or lost. We do know those on high incomes and retired swung to the ALP and those on low incomes but retired did the opposite.

We are now walking blind. no polling organisation has come up with an acceptable explanation of why they got it wrong and thus how they will overcome this HUGE problem.

The polls thus far since the election have shown a close contest. HOWEVER this means we  cannot trust their results because of what occurred in the last election.

It makes sense it is hard for an Opposition to gain headway in these times of the covid pandemic.

what are these people in the Oppositions on about. what metrics are they using?

The Myanmar military ape Trump

 The Military thugs in Myanmar have seized power in a coup.

See HERE or HERE and HERE.

Their excuse comes right out of the Trump playbook. Massive fraud was involved but of course no evidence was proffered.

I did warn of this. when someone of limited intelligence abut with a great thirst for power cannot win an election and makes absurd claims of fraud those would be dictators would copy these arguments.

They now have