The Anniversary of the GST

Way back in the late 90s we finally got a reasonably comprehensive goods and services tax.
It wasn't the real deal. There were too many exemptions and far too many people complained the GST  was a bad tax because it heightened inequality.

Indirect taxes will always be regressive. That is the point of their simplicity. The less exemptions means less opportunities for tax avoidance. ( The greater the rates the more avoidance as well as Italy will attest to.)

Thus you examine the whole tax system to see if it is progressive not one tax.

This is why I have always supported the idea of a GST. It got through on the support of the Australian Democrats. I remember asking their leader at the time ( was it Meg Lees?) why there was a different rate for the Encyclopedia Britannia for the book and the CD. She could not answer.

The other thing was the States were supposed to eliminate a myriad of inefficient taxes but Peter Costello was too laxy to follow up on this.

I am always amused how the most fervent supporters of the GST are ardent opponents of a price on carbon. They believe a price on carbon is a big tax and regressive. Quite clearly these people are not too bright.

My view is the GST should be broadened. I would increase it as well. Given the incidence with the GST and payroll tax is broadly similar. I would increase it and then eliminate the payroll tax. It is much better to have but one tax rather than two.

The Anarctic is warming strongly

A new article shows the South Pole is warming quite strongly.

Not good.


Update:

This is more evidence

Rooftop solar does not blow up your keetle

Renew economy has a good article on this myth.

Roof top solar is changing a lot of things. blowing up kettles is not one of them.

Around the Traps 26/6/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on jobkeeper-has-failed-and-its-hitting-women-and-young-people-the-hardest, how-will-we-know-when-australias-economy-is-back-to-normal
• Stephen Duckett and Anita Stobart on 7-lessons-for-australias-health-system-from-the-coronavirus-upheaval
• Judith Brett on australias-devotion-to-coal-has-come-at-a-huge-cost-we-need-the-government-to-change-course-urgently
• Susan Forde on if-the-government-listened-to-business-leaders-they-would-encourage-humanities-education-not-pull-funds-from-it
• Alan Dupont on canberra-vs-beijing-response-sam-roggeveen
• Ross Gittins on wage-tribunal-saves-employers-and-us-from-their-own-folly
• renew economy on south-australia-fast-tracks-energy-plan-to-dodge-blackouts-and-meet-100-renewables-goal , smoke-and-high-temperature-cut-outs-hit-solar-and-wind-output-in-summer-from-hell , big-utilities-split-over-delays-to-key-reform-that-backs-battery-storage, energy-regulator-considers-options-to-control-output-of-wind-and-solar-farms
• John Quiggin on if-we-could-design-jobkeeper-within-weeks-we-can-exit-coal-by-2030-heres-how-to-do-it
• Hugh Saddler on australia-has-failed-miserably-on-energy-efficiency-and-government-figures-hide-the-truth
• Adrian Esterman on victorias-coronavirus-hotspots-not-quite-a-second-wave-but-still-cause-for-concern
• Keasey McLaughlin on dyson-heydon-finding-may-spark-a-metoo-moment-for-the-legal-profession
• Croaking Cassandra on little fiscal discipline at the RB
• James Martin et al on chinas-disinformation-campaign-is-real-we-need-better-defences-against-state-based-cyberattacks
• Ian Marshman and Frank Larkins on the-government-is-making-job-ready-degrees-cheaper-for-students-but-cutting-funding-to-the-same-courses
• Darren O'Donovan on the-problem-is-not-fixed-why-we-need-a-royal-commission-into-robodebt
• Gabrielle Appleby on australia-urgently-needs-an-independent-body-to-hold-powerful-judges-to-account
• Leeanne Smith and Claire Brolan on goals-australia-do-better
• Gary Mortimore et al on covid-19-has-changed-the-future-of-retail-theres-plenty-more-automation-in-store
• Wendy Boyd on what-is-family-day-care-and-how-is-it-different-to-long-day-care-in-a-child-care-centre
• Alexandra Wake and Michael Ward on latest-84-million-cuts-rip-the-heart-out-of-the-abc-and-our-democracy
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-why-even-competent-politicians-refuse-to-change-policy-course
• Kyle Mulrooney and Alastair Harkness on illegal-hunters-are-a-bigger-problem-on-farms-than-animal-activists-so-why-arent-we-talking-about-that
• Kerrie Davies and Willa McDonald on friday-essay-how-a-gonzo-press-gang-forged-the-ned-kelly-legend
• Chris Edmund et al on australia-must-reject-austerity-and-embrace-targeted-spending-to-beat-this-recession

Northern America

• Sam Roberts on john-roberts-supreme-court-abortion-trump-taxes
• Austin Sarat on barr-berman-us-attorneys-politics
• New Deal Democrat on the-2020-presidential-election-as-forecast-by-state-polling
• Perry Bacon on trumps-latest-firing-may-have-violated-four-democratic-values
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-may-existing-home-sales, a-few-comments-on-may-new-home-sales
• Econbrowser on how-many-fatalities-will-governors-and-localities-accept
• George Rennie on is-america-a-failing-state-how-a-superpower-has-been-brought-to-the-brink
• Andrew Prokop on geoffrey-berman-sdny-fired-barr
• Ian Millhiser on michael-flynn-court-dismiss-charges-neomi-rao-karen-henderson-robert-wilkins
• Fintal O'Toole on trump-unpresident-unredeemed-promise
• Brenda Wineapple on alien-sedition-acts-authoritarian-crackdown
• Macromania on why-fed-should-create-standing-repo
• Dan Crawford on the-challenges-to-the-dollar 
• Tim Duy on rate-cut-on-the-way Thanks Brad
• Geoffrey Skelley on new-polling-shows-trumps-electoral-college-advantage-is-slipping
• Ezra Klein on donald-trump-2020-polls-coronavirus-biden-reelection-losing

Europe

• Chris Porter on marcus-rashford-black-lives-matter-and-a-british-premier-who-is-out-of-his-league
• Coppolla comment on the-true-story-of-ni-autocredits
• Mainly Macro on did-the-uk-really-almost-go-bankrupt

Asia

• Weihuan Zhou on why-china-believed-it-had-a-case-to-hit-australian-barley-with-tariffs
• Abhijan Rej on lessons-india-china-border-clashes
• Rodger Shanahan on syria-thumbs-down
• Khang Vu on can-inter-korean-peace-be-salvaged-latest-wreckage

Wonk

• lawfare on information-attacks-democracies Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-defining-recessions-when-negative-growth-is-too-common-or-too-rare, guest-contribution-the-effectiveness-of-macroprudential-policies-and-capital-controls-against-volatile-capital-inflows
• stumbling and mumbling on ideology-vs-the-triple-lock
• institutional economics on what-jnos-kornai-can-teach-us-about-housing-affordability
• Adam Kamridi-Scott on in-many-countries-the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-accelerating-not-slowing
• the conversable economist on adam-smith-as-practical-development, young-adults-entering-covid-19-workforce
• Douglas Campbell on relative prices and US Manufacturing Thanks Brad
• Darrin Lim on pivot-globalism-grievances-lurk
• Tom McTague on america-image-power-trump
• David Peetz on can-government-actually-predict-the-jobs-of-the-future
• Open Mind on how-to-lose-control-of-an-epidemic-like-covid-19

General

• Debbi Long on from-hospitals-to-households-we-can-all-be-better-at-remembering-to-wash-our-hands
• Ruth Margolin on in-search-of-king-davids-lost-empire
• John Quiggin on the-simple-but-difficult-physics-of-losing-weight

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on extreme-event-attribution-and-the-nature-culture-duality
• Laura Revell on climate-explained-what-earth-would-be-like-if-we-hadnt-pumped-greenhouse-gases-into-the-atmosphere
• Umair Irfan on arctic-siberia-temperature-heat-wave-record-russia-fire-climate-change

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• against-overly-restrictive-definitions-no-i-dont-think-it-helps-to-describe-bayes-as-the-analysis-of-subjective
• retraction-of-racial-essentialist-article-that-appeared-in-psychological-science
• no-there-is-no-tension-between-getting-it-fast-and-getting-it-right
• resolving-confusions-over-that-study-of-teacher-effects-on-student-achievement-and-height
• stacking-for-non-mixing-bayesian-computations-the-curse-and-blessing-of-multimodal-posteriors
• election-odds-update
• awesome-map-shows-the-unreasonable-effectiveness-of-mixture-models
• why-do-the-results-of-immigrant-students-depend-so-much-on-their-country-of-origin-and-so-little-on-their-country-of-destination
• statschat on watered-down-science
• Kaiser Fung on a-glimpse-into-surveillance-data-via-the-harvard-study-of-parking-lots, coronavirus-has-not-gone-away-neither-have-these-covid-fallacies

Retired but still genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Marc Bellamare on estimating treatment effects with the front door criterion
• No Hesitations on covid-and-climate

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• angry-man
• Andrew Gelman on /the-intellectuals-and-the-masses
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-22-the-biggest-bluff-by-maria-konnikova
• John West on book-review-what-s-holding-china-s-economy-back

vox wonk

• covid-19-and-brexit-contrasting-sectoral-impacts-uk
• services-trade-policy-great-recession
• firm-age-productivity-and-intangible-capital
• real-time-weakness-global-economy-post-covid-19
• women-leaders-are-better-fighting-pandemic
• macroeconomic-analysis
• covid-19-putting-chinese-policy-reaction-context
• unmasked-effect-face-masks-spread-covid-19
• covid-19-mental-health-and-domestic-violence
• covid-19-developing-economies-new-ebook
• money-and-debt-paying-crisis
• monetary-policy-and-post-covid-19-housing-recovery
• challenges-and-opportunities-start-ups-time-covid-19
• eu-firms-post-covid-19-environment
• preserving-capital-financial-sector-weather-storm
• what-do-recoveries-past-us-recessions-teach-us-about-recovery-pandemic-recession
• trade-shocks-and-credit-reallocation-lessons-italy
• covid-19-and-teleworking-japan
• covid-and-nature-capitalism
• long-term-care-facilities-risk-factor-death-covid-19
• covid-19-and-macroeconomic-effects-automation

Tommy

I had high hopes when I started to watch Tommy.

Surely the yanks could do a decent TV cop series. I had not seen one since Hill Street Blues. what a great series that was.
Alas and alack I was wrong. It is crap but I put the horse before the cart.

I liked LA having a female police commissioner and the circumstances for this.
however the main character Tommy who is the commissioner is very badly written which seems to be always the case on yank shows.

She was married but divorced however allowed the father to have the child, a daughter. Why?
She is apparently gay???  did she always feel this way but tried to be a wife and mother or did she realise this during the marriage?? We do not know.

She is in her late 50s or early 60s which is appropriate for her job however she is either average looking or unattractive depending how honest you wish to be.

Two problems here. In the very first episode a smoking hot female who clearly works in administration in the LA head office propositions her. She says she is too tired.
Two problems. no boss should ever even contemplate sex with an underling. Why would some-one 20 years or more younger than her ever want to have sex with her.
Again we are left with nothing.

When we meet her former husband he is clearly much younger than her?? Again this makes no sense at all.

No series is ever going to make it without a good back story about the main characters. When the back story makes no sense at all the writers are shown to be lazy and we viewers give up.

I have given up after 2 or 3 episodes.

The High court and sexual harassment

I have to admit I have never had any time for males who sexually harass females. They are only interested in having sex and once they do everything is over.
I also have to admit i simply do not understand males that act like this.
Take one of the allegations concerning Dyson Heydon. Here is a man in his late 60s ( older even than I) who makes a play for a legal student at a University function.

Mr Heydon was seen as one of the great intellects of the high court. Although this appears to relate to the law. Taking on the 'Trade Union' royal commission and then accepting to speak at the liberal party fundraiser shows he can be stupid when he wanted to.

I cannot help comparing him to Bill Clinton. This will overcome anything he did in law. It appears because he got away with it for so long he did not think anything would go wrong. Like Bill Clinton it did and has.

As a society we really have to do something about such behaviour. The main problem is how do you complain about such men in powerful positions.

Branch Stacking

Just as one mans terrorist is anothers freedom fighter one mans branch stacker is anothers boosting membership.

What we do need are people getting involved in political parties. The big question is how to we ensure these people are genuine.

I have two suggestions.

Firstly get people to pay for their membership by card. This means no -one can pay for their membership by cash. It takes a lot of work to get around this.
Secondly get people to attend 5 meeting before they can vote on pre-selections. Yes they can do all else at the meeting but can only vote after 5 meetings. A person who attends a meeting on a cold winters night is committed to the cause.

A vibrant democracy needs a vibrant rank and file. People will continue to lose faith in Australian polity if things do not change.

US Politics

A couple of different things on US politics
First we have the wonderful Andrew Gelman on what polling is saying and what betting odds are not saying. Two things about this. Watch for future articles on this and se condly read the comments.

Second we have Susan Glasser on John Bolton's book. It is easily the best read about the book. two things stand out. Bolton has between know as a flamethrower ( we say bomb thrower here in OZ) but never a liar. secondly how can you try and take legal action to stop publication of a book which you claim is full of false claims!

I fell I cannot finish without stating it is interesting Trump likes firing Attorneys or Inspector General who get to close in their investigation. Very much the mobster

Around the Traps 19/6/20

It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michelle Grattan on view-from-the-hill-senate-committees-are-one-of-the-few-bright-spots-in-the-battle-to-hold-government-to-account
• Lee Baumgartner et al  on dont-count-your-fish-before-they-hatch-experts-react-to-plans-to-release-2-million-fish-into-the-murray-darling
• renew economy on australias-big-smelters-could-also-be-giant-batteries-and-go-green-at-same-time , rooftop-solar-reshapes-w-a-grid-and-retiring-coal-units-wont-be-missed, too-late-for-gradual-transition-quiggin-calls-for-coal-exit-by-2030, australia-may-reach-nearly-60gw-of-small-scale-solar-new-csiro-modelling
• Lauren Walker and Warwick Allen on planting-non-native-trees-accelerates-the-release-of-carbon-back-into-the-atmosphere
• Gabi Mocatto et al on pass-the-shiraz-please-how-australias-wine-industry-can-adapt-to-climate-change
• Institutional economics on a-series-of-unfortunate-events
• Geoffery Robinson on labors-branch-stacking-scandal-is-a-problem-for-the-whole-party-not-just-victoria
• Daniel Cass on energy-giants-want-to-thwart-reforms-that-would-help-renewables-and-lower-power-bills
• James Murphy on the-time-has-come-to-say-something-of-the-forgotten-class-how-menzies-transformed-australian-political-debate
• Benjamin Gussen on south-australia-will-re-open-its-borders-to-some-states-but-not-others-is-that-constitutional
• Croaking Cassandra on measuring-how-much-monetary-policy-has-eased
• Ross Gittins on economys-need-may-run-second-to-morrisons-spending-hangups
• Greg Jericho on the-worst-may-be-over-for-australian-job-losses-but-recovery-has-a-long-way-to-go
• John Daley on retail-wont-snap-back-3-reasons-why-covid-has-changed-the-way-we-shop-perhaps-forever
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-covid-19-recession-is-different-and-we-need-more-stimulus-to-deal-with-it
• Tom Morton et al on people-need-to-see-the-benefits-from-local-renewable-energy-projects-and-that-means-jobs

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on enter-the-tilde-rising-covid-19-fatalities-and-state-gdp-in-question
• Peter Dorman on why-trump-is-in-trouble
• Malcolm Cook on disruption-or-demands-us-post-election-foreign-policy-asia
• Robert Waldmann on naming-forts
• Nathaniel Rakich on how-to-read-2020-polls-like-a-pro
• Tyler Cowen on inflation-is-higher-than-you-think
• Jen Kirby on john-bolton-book-excerpts-trump-ukraine-china
• New Deal Democrat on the-coronavirus-recession-may-already-technically-have-ended-sales-and-production-both-increased-in-may
• Sussan Glasser on john-boltons-epic-score-settling
• Nicole Norea on bill-barr-geoffrey-berman-firing-attorney-manhattan

Europe

• Gorana Gricic on nato-rebranding-exercise-new-product-launch
• stumbling and mumbling on why-so-little-anger

Asia

• Shruti Pandalai on seizing-chance-chart-india-way
• Peter Greste on maria-ressas-conviction-should-matter-to-everyone-who-cares-about-democracy
• L Gordon Flake on tensions-rise-on-the-korean-peninsula-and-they-are-unlikely-to-recede-any-time-soon
• Ian Hall on china-and-indias-deadly-himalayan-clash-is-a-big-test-for-modi-and-a-big-concern-for-the-world, india-china-pressure-altitude
• Lydia Khalil on need-know-ed-davis-us-policing-and-black-lives-matter
• Sheila Coronel on maria-ressa-rappler-philippines-democracy
• Peter Layton on belt-and-road-means-big-data-facial-recognition-too

Wonk

• Marianne Hanson on dont-count-your-fish-before-they-hatch-experts-react-to-plans-to-release-2-million-fish-into-the-murray-darling
• Becky Freeman on australias-decisive-win-on-plain-packaging-paves-way-for-other-countries-to-follow-suit
• Biren Nanda on geopolitical-consequences-pandemic
• Mainly Macro on what-lockdowns-do-and-what-they-dont-do
• Coppolla comment on pandemic-economics-role-of-central-banks-and-monetary-policy
• the conversable economist on the-productivity-race-us-vs-germany-vs-japan
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-what-determines-when-a-recession-is-a-recession
• Tim Harford on the-pros-and-cons-of-libertarian-lockdowns-or-dont-be-a-dickhead
• stumbling and mumbling on lockdown-threats-to-capital

General

• Ben McCann on psycho-turns-60-hitchcocks-famous-fright-film-broke-all-the-rules
• The endeavour on hohmann-transfer-orbit
• Carl Wilson on bob-dylan-rough-rowdy-ways-album-review

Climate

• Peter Sinclair on despite-solar-minimum-2020-close-to-record-warmth
• and Then Theres Physics on can-climate-sensitivity-be-really-high
• Real Climate on sensitive-but-unclassified-part-ii
• the conversable economist on the-boy-wolf-and-case-for-solar-radiation-management
• David Appell on dangerous-warming-in-russia

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• fake-mit-journalists-misrepresent-real-buzzfeed-journalist-maybe-we-shouldnt-be-so-surprised
• challenges-to-the-reproducibility-of-machine-learning-models-in-health-care-also-a-brief-discussion-about-not-overrating-randomized-clinical-trials
• advice-for-a-yoga-studio-that-wants-to-reopen
• how-unpredictable-is-the-2020-election
• surgisphere-scandal-legacy-media-lancet-still-dont-get-it
• am-i-missing-something-here-this-estimate-seems-off-by-several-orders-of-magnitude
• worthwhile-content-in-pnas
• the-point-here-is-not-the-face-masks-its-the-impossibility-of-assumption-free-causal-inference-when-the-different-treatments-are-entangled-in-this-way/
• some-forecasting-for-covid-19-has-failed-a-discussion-of-taleb-and-ioannidis-et-al
• estimating-the-effects-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-covid-19-in-europe
• laplaces-demon-a-seminar-series-about-bayesian-machine-learning-at-scale-and-my-answers-to-their-questions
• akis-talk-about-reference-models-in-model-selection-in-laplaces-demon-series
• forecast-betting-odds
• James empty blog on blueskiesresearchorguk-like-phoenix
• statschat on alert-but-not-alarmed

Retired but still genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on did-us-recession-start-in-february-or-march, time-series-modeling-of-covid-19-paths

Dianne Coyle ( quirky - book reviews)

• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-21-sleight-of-mind-by-matt-cook
• My Journey through the best presidential biographies on review-of-grant-by-ron-chernow thanks Jim Rose

vox wonk

• slavery-sugar-and-african-american-family-structure
• inflation-after-pandemic-theory-and-practice
• executives-flee-when-neighbouring-firms-pollute
• import-dependence-essential-medical-goods-during-pandemic
• automation-channel-pandemic-induced-uncertainty
• political-scar-epidemics
• theory-repression-and-growth-traps
• negative-interest-rate-policies-can-signal-commitment-prolonged-monetary-accommodation
• covid-19-and-childcare-men-doing-their-share-only-if-they-are-not-working
• how-we-should-deal-lockdown-learning-loss-england-s-schools
• decomposing-demand-and-supply-shocks-during-covid-19
• covid-19-fiscal-stimulus-measures-and-household-spending-us
• automation-globalisation-and-vanishing-jobs
• economic-effects-covid-19-containment-measures
• violence-us-lessons-1965-voting-rights-act
• resilience-versus-robustness-global-value-chains
• compliance-social-distancing-during-covid-19-crisis
• what-price-pay-monetary-financing-budget-deficits-euro-area
• sweden-s-constitution-decides-its-exceptional-covid-19-policy
• bank-business-model-post-covid-19-world

JK Rowling and transgender

The writer of Harry Potter has been in the news concerning transgender.
Steve from Brisbane on it.

Both Carl Trueman and  Murray Campbell encapsulate my views but of course I am a conservative evangelical. ( sorry a tautology.)

You are born a male or female. no amount of surgical procedure can change that.

I have to say my experience of transgender people  mainly being Bob Connell and  Malcolm McGregor would lead me to think transgender people have bad and still have large psychological problems.However these are but anecdotes.

What I can say is transgender 'women' are not women. either physically or emotionally. to equate them with natural women is simply absurd.
Indeed it appears some people want to completely change on what is a man or a woman.
.

Statues, films, TV series etc

Well it appears some people are in a very censorious mood.Statues are either being torn down or defaced  and films and TV series are no longer being able to be viewed on line.

What to make all about this?
On statues I would prefer not to see any. In the first place I find it almost idolatrous  and in the second they are prone to nature. I prefer people read about any 'famous' people from history.

As for films, TV series etc I am outraged. I think I can work out what is occurring . I know for example that slaves in the Deep South were not treated well in the majority.This is not to say c some lucky ones were treated well.
I think i can work out was in worth viewing and what is not. It is like reading.
It almost like we have the Nazi burning of the books at present!

Some things are going way overboard.

Around the Traps 12/6/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Geoff Hammer on homebuilder-might-be-the-most-complex-least-equitable-construction-jobs-program-ever-devised
• Ross Gittins on economy-to-blame-for-part-of-expected-budget-blowout , time-to-dig-deep-for-those-who-havent-had-a-good-crisis , the-tables-have-turned-in-our-economic-relations-with-the -world
• Gary Dickson on local-news-sources-are-closing-across-australia-we-are-tracking-the-devastation-and-some-reasons-for-hope
• Michael Baker and Nick Wilson on new-zealand-hits-zero-active-coronavirus-cases-here-are-5-measures-to-keep-it-that-way 
• Croaking Cassandra on recovering
• Peter Martin on economists-back-wage-freeze-21-19-in-new-economic-society-conversation-survey
• Tony Walker on attending-the-g7-in-the-us-carries-great-diplomatic-risks-for-australia
• Victor Abramowicz on case-for-australian-strategic-ambiguity
• Renew Economy on rule-changes-that-could-shift-balance-of-power-in-clean-energy-transition ,australias-big-smelters-could-also-be-giant-batteries-and-go-green-at-same-time
• Kevin Tolhurst on its-12-months-since-the-last-bushfire-season-began-but-dont-expect-the-same-this-year
• Danielle Wood and Nathan Blane on how-to-improve-jobkeeper-hint-it-would-help-not-to-pay-businesses-late
• Jack Vowles on an-election-like-no-other-with-100-days-to-go-can-jacinda-ardern-maintain-her-extraordinary-popularity
• Thalia Anthony and Stephen Gray on was-there-slavery-in-australia-yes-it-shouldnt-even-be-up-for-debate

Northern America

• Erin Hurley on us-week-protests-and-tidal-wave-history
• sandwichman on looking-down-right-now
• Zack Beauchamp on antifa-anti-fascist-explained
• Cameron Peters on trump-failed-coronavirus-response
• James Hamilton on interpreting-the-unemployment-numbers
• Eric Kramer on initial-polling-on-police-accountability-and-protests
• the conversable economist on some-thoughts-on-police-reform , pregnancy-related-mortality-in-us , some-economics-of-tipping, the-semi-official-end-of-longest-us-economic-expansion
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-a-severe-us-recession , guest-contribution-how-has-covid-19-already-impacted-small-businesses
• Lili Loufborouw on buffalo-police-video-white-america
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-soft-inflation-in-may
• Walter Shaub on trump-corruption-ransacking-republic
• Yasmeen Serhan on america-police-violence-germany-georgia-britain
• John Cassidy on why-the-polls-are-alarming-for-donald-trump
• Copolla comment on so-when-did-this-recession-start-exactly
• Fred Kaplan on milley-trump-esper-civil-military
• New Deal democrat on may-inflation-steadies-meanwhile-an-artificial-all-time-high-in-real-wages
• No Hesitations on monthly-vs-quarterly-recession-dating
• Brian Resnik on new-covid-spikes-arizona-florida-carolinas-texas

Europe

• Mainly Macro on locking-down-too-late-but-ending-lockdown-too-soon
• stumbling and mumbling on origins-of-a-disaster
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-cost-of-coronavirus-uncertainty-in-europe-the-high-returns-to-clear-policy-plans

Asia

• Roberto Recho on forced-evictions-eat-away-at-a-manila-community-as-developer-spares-the-golf-course-next-door
• Farkhondeh Akbari and Timor Sharan on key-peace-afghanistan-eliminate-taliban-sanctuaries
• Craig Keating on thailand-another-dissenter-disappears
• Khang Vu on north-korea-may-have-benefited-pandemic-after-all
• Craig Hershovitz on syrian-prosecutions-rare-case-universal-jurisdiction

Wonk

• stumbling and mimbling on tail-risk-in-policing
• the grumpy economist on perpetuities-debt-crises-and-inflation
• James empty blog on blueskiesresearchorguk-more-covid-19-parameter-estimation
• croaking cassandra on failing
• Matt McDonald on climate-change-makes-covid-19-politics-look-easy
• Vanessa Barabra on brazilians-die-bolsonaro-shrugs
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-how-the-coronavirus-crisis-is-affecting-japanese-and-american-businesses-evidence-from-the-stock-market
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-why-the-marketplace-for-ideas-can-fail-from-an-economists-perspective

General

• Christian Moro on curious-kids-why-do-we-have-boogers
• Gabriel da Silva on what-makes-pepper-spray-so-intense-and-is-it-a-tear-gas-a-chemical-engineer-explains
• Shireen Daft on tear-gas-and-pepper-spray-are-chemical-weapons-so-why-can-police-use-them

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on mitigation-adaptation-suffering
• Ralph Sims on climate-explained-does-your-driving-speed-make-any-difference-to-your-cars-emissions
• David Appell on warmest-may-since-1978-at-least-1978
• Skeptical Science on No silver lining. Coronavirus won't slow climate change
• moyhu on may-global-surface-templs-down-017-from-april ,giss-may-global-down-by-012-from-april

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-seventy-two-percent-solution-to-police-violence
• cops-views
• why-xs-think-theyre-the-best
• what-are-the-best-scientific-papers-ever-written
• one-more-bolivia-election-fraud-fraud-thing
• hamiltonian-monte-carlo-using-an-adjoint-differentiated-laplace-approximation
• bla-bla-bla-peer-review-bla-bla-bla
• parking-lot-statistics-a-story-in-three-parts
• two-good-news-articles-on-trends-in-baseball-analytics
• election-2020-is-coming-our-poll-aggregation-model-with-elliott-morris-of-the-economist
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-27-iamnothomecom

Retired but still genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on sofie-youtube-channel-conditional-capm , fastest-ever-nber-recession-dating, david-hendry-on-graphene-nanotubes ,real-economics-in-business-strategy

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• globalisation-past-and-future
• the-invention-of-taste
• Jennifer Gribble on book-review-desire-lines-is-a-small-love-story-inside-an-epic-tale

Vox Wonk

• covid-19-pandemic-causing-crisis-uk-universities-0
• health-vs-wealth-trade-and-covid-19-policymaking
• bcg-vaccine-does-not-protect-against-covid-19
• article/and-out-lockdowns
• production-networks-and-epidemic-spreading-re-opening-uk-economy
• socioeconomic-determinants-covid-19-infections-and-mortality
• ease-health-wealth-trade-reallocate-digital-property-rights
• unconventional-fiscal-policy-exit-covid-19-crisis
• scarring-effects-employment-bans-asylum-seekers
• insights-post-covid-19-fiscal-policies
• rising-religiosity-global-response-covid-19-fear
• next-generation-eu-recovery-plan-europe
• covid-19-populism-and-sustainable-development
• historical-impact-immigration-us-political-ideology
• healthwealth-trade-communication-matters
• rural-hospital-closures-increase-mortality
• social-capital-and-social-distancing-us
• covid-19-narrative-economics-public-policy-and-mental-health
• measure-latent-social-distancing
• richer-poorer-covid-19-phases-germany
• covid-19-and-uk-public-finances
• persistent-impacts-early-social-distancing
• covid-19-asset-prices-and-great-reallocation

Mixed Messages from the NSW Government

One day this week The Premier was very angry with all those who protested on the weekend.
This should have occurred when we still have the coronavirus running around so to speak.

The very next day the Sports Minister said all community sports can start in July. Huh?
Tell me which of the two is more likely to spread the virus. ( Don't talk about how football is invading the months when cricket should be played).
Lots of heavy breathing, sweat even spitting on the ground. They are physical contact sports.

If these sports can proceed then social distancing is not needed. Therefore it doesn't matter if public transport is crowed but apparently it does. The dopey Deputy Premier wants spectators. This makes sense if physical contact sports are allowed to be played.
does the NSW Government even think things through???

Why did US Unemployment fall ?

James Hamilton of Econbrowser fame writes the BEST article on why US unemployment fell.
It is a lengthy article but well worth reading.

After adjusting for a lot of factors Jim thinks the true unemployment rate is close to 20%.

Go on and read why.

I Can't Breathe

We have observed demonstrations right around the world following the tragic death of George Floyd.
The police behaviour in this episode was disgraceful and they have been rightfully charged. ( see Tim Taylor on Police Reform).

This incident appears to be the straw which broke the camel's back. A bit too late for Colin Kaepernick which was a disgraceful act which now appears to be over although no apology for him.

The first question we must ask is , is this protest just. Of course it is. black lives indeed all lives matter.
The second question is should you demonstrate in this era of social distancing. If the reason is very important then the answer is yes.

I should add an Australian take on this.
Aboriginal people have attempted to link this with deaths in custody.
In my opinion this is wrong for two reasons.
First the royal commission into black deaths in custody found no 'racism' involved in deaths. Indeed by far the largest reason was suicide. I am unsure how the police or others are responsible for suicide. Just remember other people die in custody .
Second I would like to see the differences in arrest rates between aboriginals and others. Some time ago I remember a person giving a paper on crime rates between black and white people in the USA. She found no difference in arrest rates but most certainly in convictions. She put this done to white people being able to afford legal counsel.
I would love for some-one here to examine this. I would not be surprised if this occurs here big time.

This is a concern. If I am a racist policeman I know if i arrest an aboriginal it is highly likely the man will be convicted!

We in Australia should also examine why Aborginals are so over-represented in gaols. We must find ways to overcome this.

The honours system is broken.

Yet again we see people receiving honours for essential for, what Nick Gruen said some time ago , doing their job.
Some of them did a pretty poor job of it which makes it even worse.
The honours system was always flawed and at least we no longer have the absurd giving out of the Sirs and Madams.
However why do people receive honours for essentially doing their job. Lots of politicians and public servants here as well as sportsmen.want to

Even if you do community work do you really need a gong to show what good work you have done. Even if you do what does it say about your neighbour who has done the same but has no gog.

Abolish the honours system and abolish it now.

I see Steve from Brisbane agrees

Around the Traps 5/6/20

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on not-in-narrow-seas , economic-fortunes-of-her-majestys-realms , regional-economies
• Greg Jericho on the-government-still-treats-debt-like-it-is-economic-poison-but-now-is-the-time-to-invest , yes-australias-emissions-are-falling-but-its-a-hollow-boast ,yes-australia-is-in-a-recession-but-worse-is-yet-to-come
• Andrew Blakers on really-australia-its-not-that-hard-10-reasons-why-renewable-energy-is-the-future
• Anne Twomey on high-court-ruling-on-palace-letters-case-paves-way-to-learn-more-about-the-dismissal-and-our-constitution
• Terry Carney on government-to-repay-470-000-unlawful-robodebts-in-what-might-be-australias-biggest-ever-financial-backdown
• Ross Gittins on reserve-bank-has-just-one-thing-to-say-to-Scott-Morrison , many-illusions-performed-in-name-of-creatimng-jobs , virus-lockdown-pushes-already-weak-economy-into-recession
• Brendan Coates on money-for-social-housing-not-home-buyers-grants-is-the-key-to-construction-stimulus
• renew economy on renewables-jobs-could-boom-to-44000-by-2025-but-only-with-the-right-policy-support , fluence-proposes-two-big-batteries-to-upgrade-victoria-nsw-transmission-line, solar-and-winds-stunning-cost-advantage-sparks-call-for-mass-coal-closure , arena-flooded-with-applications-for-green-hydrogen-project-funding
• Ann Davies on australian-bushfires-fois-shed-new-light-on-why-morrison-government-was-ill-prepared
• Michael Douglass on media-companies-can-now-be-held-responsible-for-your-dodgy-comments-on-social-media
• John Hawkins on our-needlessly-precise-definition-of-a-recession-is-causing-us-needless-trouble
• Jeff Borland on why-even-the-best-case-for-jobs-isnt-good-well-need-more-jobkeeper
• Stephen Hamilton et al on economic-snap-back-not-so-fast
• Peter Martin on how-a-tightening-of-wallets-pushed-australia-into-recession
• Stephen Duckett and Anika Stobart on 4-ways-australias-coronavirus-response-was-a-triumph-and-4-ways-it-fell-short
• Brendan Coates on scott-morrisons-homebuilder-scheme-is-classic-retail-politics-but-lousy-economics
• Institutional Economics on the-case-for-negative-interest-rates

Northern America

• Timothy Lynch on as-minneapolis-burns-trumps-presidency-is-sinking-deeper-into-crisis-and-yet-he-may-still-be-re-elected
• Jill McCorkel on police-officers-accused-of-brutal-violence-often-have-a-history-of-complaints-by-citizens
• Brad De Long on democrats-must-embrace-full-employment , why-do-we-need-automatic-triggers
• Menzie Chinn on forward-looking-economic-activity-pre-covid19
• Ruth Graham on the-inconceivable-strangeness-of-trumps-bible-photo-op
• Open Mind on make-america-sick-again
• New Deal Democrat on coronavirus-dashboard-for-may-31-comparing-us-states-and-regions-with-european-countries
• the conversable economist on some-economics-of-1968-us-riots , us-unemployment-rates 
• Peter Greste on when-trump-attacks-the-press-he-attacks-the-american-people-and-their-constitution
• Samar Kalaf on nfl-george-floyd-colin-kaepernick-roger-goodell-peaceful-protest
• Thomas Wright on weve-now-entered-the-final-phase-of-the-trump-era
• John Cassidy on donald-trump-represents-a-bigger-threat-than-ever-to-us-democracy
• Michael Shank on how-police-became-paramilitaries
• Kieren Healy on the-politics-of-disorder
• Allahpundit on mattis-denounces-trump-first-president-lifetime-not-try-unite-american-people
• Scott Galloway on future-of-college Thanks Brad
• Dennis Muller on in-publishing-tom-cotton-the-new-york-times-has-made-a-terrible-error-of-judgment
• Lydia Khalil on us-powerful-unions-protect-police-from-reform
• Barkley Rosser on has-trump-created-praetorian-guard-in-washington
• Sam Wang on trumps-authoritarianism-checking-the-2017-checklist

Europe

• Mainly Macro on how-cummings-continues-to-gaslight-the-nation

Asia

• Puji Pujiono  et al on going-local-lessons-covid-response-indonesia
• Christopher de Bellaigue on british-pillage-of-india
• Raffaello Pantucci on central-asian-nations-want-kick-start-bri-and-china-happy
• Jen Kirby on tiananmen-square-massacre-hong-kong-vigil-china-anthem

Wonk

• Michael Clarke on why-is-there-so-much-furore-over-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative
• Michael Douglas on high-court-ruling-on-palace-letters-case-paves-way-to-learn-more-about-the-dismissal-and-our-constitution
• Danielle Kilgo on riot-or-resistance-how-media-frames-unrest-in-minneapolis-will-shape-publics-view-of-protest
• Daniel Flitton on g7
• Institutional Economics on the-australian-and-us-ngdp-gaps
• John Quiggin on modern-monetary-theory-neither-modern-nor-monetary-nor-mainly-theoretical
• Rodger Shanahan on need-know-brett-mcgurk-america-strategy-defeat-isis
• No Hesitations on yield-curve-construction
• the conversable economist on monopoly-now , tales-of-frank-ramsey-economics
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-uncovered-interest-rate-parity-redux-non-uniform-effects , guest-contribution-global-financial-markets-and-oil-price-shocks-in-real-time
• Ralph Sims on climate-explained-could-the-world-stop-using-fossil-fuels-today
• Donald Rothwell on us-and-who
• Croaking Cassandra on small-economies
• Institutional Economics on globalisation-and-labour-productivity
• Brad De Long on the-insight-that-a-good-way-to-talk-to-non-economists-is-to-point-out-that-there-is-a-major-kink-in-the-benefits-as-you-go-frontier

General

• Natalie Stoianoff on whoever-invents-a-coronavirus-vaccine-will-control-the-patent-and-importantly-who-gets-to-use-it 
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-remembering-alberto-alesina-the-father-of-political-economy
• Mark the Graph on checking-in-on-how-nations-are-coping-with-covid19

Climate

• Moyhu on ncepncar-reanalysis-may-2020-surface-down-from-april
• Joelle Gergis and Linden Ashcroft on we-dug-up-australian-weather-records-back-to-1838-and-found-snow-is-falling-less-often

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-good-news-about-this-episode-is-that-its-kinda-shut-up-those-people-who-were-criticizing-that-stanford-antibody-study-because-it-was-an-un-peer-reviewed-preprint
• the-turtles-stop-here-why-we-meta-science-a-meta-meta-science-manifesto
• association-for-psychological-science-lays-down-the-law-criminal-justice-reform-and-unrestricted-sociosexuality-for-us-but-not-for-you
• note-sure-what-the-lesson-for-data-analysis-quality-control-is-here-is-here-but-interesting-to-wonder-about-how-that-mistake-was-not-caught-pre-publication
• this-ones-the-lancet-editorial-board-a-trolley-problem-for-our-times-involving-a-plate-of-delicious-cookies-and-a-steaming-pile-of-poop
• statistical-workflow-and-the-fractal-nature-of-scientific-revolutions-my-talk-this-wed-at-the-santa-fe-institute
• this-ones-important-bayesian-workflow-for-disease-transmission-modeling-in-stan
• harvard-laundering
• association-for-psychological-science-makes-a-statement-on-racism-but-im-skeptical-very-skeptical
• thank-you-james-watson-thank-you-peter-ellis-lancet-you-should-do-the-right-thing-and-credit-them-for-your-retraction-actually-do-one-better-and-invite-them-to-write-a-joint-editorial-in-your-journal
• sequential-bayesian-designs-for-rapid-learning-in-covid-19-clinical-trials
• laplaces-theories-of-cognitive-illusions-heuristics-and-biases
• how-should-those-lancet-surgisphere-harvard-data-have-been-analyzed
• vaccine-development-as-a-decision-problem
• statschat on austral-asia , chloroquine-yet-again , looking-clueless
• Eran Raviv on machine-learning-simply-statistics-part-2
• Kaiser Fung on yale-meds-please-meet-yale-stats

Retired but still genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• nuttin, Dave stop fishing

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Tim Harford on books-of-the-week-20-the-next-fifty-things-that-made-the-modern-economy
• reading the best biographies of all time on review-of-andrew-carnegie-by-david-nasaw Thanks Jim Rose

Vox wonk

• world-health-organization-grid-reform
• covid-19-and-non-performing-loans
• short-run-implications-school-closures
• protecting-people-now-helping-economy-rebound-later
• covid-19-pandemic-causing-crisis-uk-universities
• will-covid-19-renew-or-diminish-trust-science
• relationship-between-automation-technologies-and-skilled-labour
• eea-covid-19-research-registry-initiative
• lasting-scars-covid-19-crisis
• pregnancy-during-pandemic
• declining-worker-power-versus-rising-monopoly-power
• what-g20-should-do-now
• who-benefits-trade-liberalisation-case-japan
• flattening-pandemic-and-recession-curves
• social-networks-and-consumption-patterns-during-pandemic
• coronavirus-credit-support-don-t-let-liquidity-lifelines-become-golden-noose
• quantifying-reducing-and-insuring-cyber-risk
• decarbonising-future-uk-economy
• so-far-so-good-and-now-don-t-be-afraid-moral-hazard
• designing-regulation-digital-platforms
• accelerating-development-covid-19-vaccine
• exposure-transit-migration-public-attitudes-and-entrepreneurship
• effect-containment-measures-covid-19-pandemic
• flattening-covid-19-curve-what-works
• tractable-epidemiological-models-economic-analysis