Around the Traps 29/2/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on orr-speaking, a-tweet-from-the-reserve-bank. government-spending-and-revenue-some-comparisons
• John Quiggin on this-time-is-different-australias-tourist-numbers-may-take-years-to-recover, one-cheer-for-labors-2050-zero-net-emissions-target
• Andrew King et al on why-drought-busting-rain-depends-on-the-tropical-oceans
• Will Steffen on labors-climate-policy-is-too-little-too-late-we-must-run-faster-to-win-the-race-
• Ross Gittins on phone-users-have-reason-to-cheer-acccs-black-eye
• Kevin Bonham on its-joyce-joke-barnabys-senate-mutilation-madness
• Renew Economy on emarkable-esb-hails-switch-to-renewables-laments-lack-of-policy , yallourn-owner-says-technology-exists-for-low-cost-low-carbon-grid, aemc-sides-with-incumbents-against-wind-and-solar-on-transmission-losses
• Michael Keating on the-jobs-market-is-nowhere-near-as-good-as-youve-heard-and-its-changing-us
• Emma Dawson and Myfa Jordan on older-and-poorer-retirement-income-review-cant-ignore-the-changing-role-of-home
• Greg Marston et al on i-dont-want-anybody-to-see-me-using-it-cashless-welfare-cards-do-more-harm-than-good
• Bianca Fileburn and Rachel Loney-Howes on weinstein-conviction-a-partial-victory-for-metoo-but-must-not-overshadow-work-still-to-be-done
• Tony Wood on noah-smith-gives-elizabeth-warrens-economic-patriotism-plan-two-cheers-i-give-it-a-bit-less
• Greg Jericho on the-coalition-is-relying-on-a-struggling-domestic-economy-to-see-us-through-an-international-crisis
• Greg Barton on asio-chiefs-assessment-shows-the-need-to-do-more-and-better-to-prevent-terrorism
• John Mathews et al  on it-might-sound-batshit-insane-but-australia-could-soon-export-sunshine-to-asia-via-a-3-800km-cable
• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-poll-update
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-a-3-point-plan-to-reach-net-zero-emissions-by-2050

Northern America

• Farkhondeh Akbari on us-taliban-deal-what-price-peace
• Fred Kaplan on richard-grenell-dni-kashyap-patel-trump-intelligence-lackeys-danger
• Damien Spry on facebook-and-democracy-it-will-get-worse-before-it-gets-better
• the conversable economist on spending-comparison-pet-care-industry-and-national-elections
• Uneasy Money on noah-smith-gives-elizabeth-warrens-economic-patriotism-plan-two-cheers-i-give-it-a-bit-less
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-january-new-home-sales

Europe

• Mainly Macro on guardian-article-on-flooding, low-paid-jobs-for-british-workers
• Coppolla comment on a-tale-of-two-halves
• stumbling and mumbling on immigrants-as-scapegoats

Asia

• David Walton on japan-article-9-conundrum-rears-its-head-again
• Eliza Harvey on lebanon-contemplates-defaulting-its-debt-and-greater-cost
• Stephen Dziedzic on singapore-hedging-hope
• Srinjoy Bose on afghanistan-peace-or-fragmentation
• Zack Beauchamp on israeli-democracy-war-netanyahu

Wonk

• Barkley Rosser on what-is-democratic-socialism
• the conversable economist on untangling-indias-distinctive-economic-story , global-corporate-bond-markets-and-the-china-problem, left-number-bias-what-firms-havent-figured-out
• Joeph Joyce on the-long-reach-of-u-s-monetary-policyleave-a-reply
• stumbling and mumbling on incentivized-stupidity
• Croaking Cassandra on coronavirus-cant-just-be-thought-of-as-an-illness-for-other-countries , preparing
• Paul Fritjers on the-weinstein-case-and-the-longer-term-consequences-of-metoo
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-will-the-coronavirus-lead-to-global-recession

General

• Btian Resnik on katherine-johnson-death-nasa-legacy-math-hidden-figures

Climate

• Mathew Hole on we-wont-have-fusion-generators-in-five-years-but-the-holy-grail-of-clean-energy-may-still-be-on-its-way
• Quark Soup on recent-papers
• and Then Theres Physics on debate-about-communicating-tipping-points
• real climate on surprised-by-the-shallows-again
• Alan Williams et al on the-last-ice-age-tells-us-why-we-need-to-care-about-a-2-change-in-temperature
• Moyhu on usa-temperatures-averaging-and-graphics-methods

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• whats-the-american-statistical-association-gonna-say-in-their-task-force-on-statistical-significance-and-replicability
• what-up-with-red-state-blue-state
• recent-unpublished-papers
• holes-in-bayesian-statistics
• vaping-statistics-controversy-update
• deep-learning-workflowhow-to-embrace-variation-and-accept-uncertainty-in-linguistic-and-psycholinguistic-data-analysis
• new-research-suggests-sanders-would-drive-swing-voters-to-trump-and-need-a-youth-turnout-miracle-to-compensate
• mike-pence-and-rush-limbaugh-on-smoking-cancer-and-the-coronavirus
• the-great-society-reagans-revolution-and-generations-of-presidential-voting
• Variable variability on estimating-statistical-properties-inhomogeneities-homogenization
• Kaiser Fung on how-to-act-like-a-data-scientist-1m insights-from-the-n-person-election-model-nevada-and-beyond , how-to-act-like-a-data-scientist-2-whats-a-mean-tweet

Retired Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Marc Bellamare on advanced econometrics: recent methods and issues

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• slightly-random-reading
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-8-deep-thinking-by-garry-kasparov

vox wonk

• how-roosevelt-s-welfare-programmes-made-america-great-again
• effects-college-education-health
• eu-bankruptcy-reform-requires-more-scrutiny
• dont-blame-it-machines-robots-and-employment-europe
• globalisation-what-s-stake-central-banks
• brexit-uncertainty-has-fallen-uk-general-election
• monetary-policy-and-bank-stability
• declining-elasticity-us-housing-supply
• shocks-frictions-and-inequality-us-business-cycles
• brexit-vote-productivity-growth-and-macroeconomic-adjustments-uk
• outside-directors-firm-behaviour-and-performance
• housing-insecurity-homelessness-and-populism

how an obsession turns you into a prat

I am very late on this so I apologise. I stay clear of Andrew Bolt. He has little intelligence and simply mouths out stuff he does not understand. What he odes well however is exacerbating those ignorant people uneducated prejudices. so he makes a lot of money.

Last week he unloaded on the ABC again. He has an obsession about the ABC. most if not all his allegations are easily found to be wrong. His guest was fellow traveler on the ABC Gerard Henderson. He of Malcolm Farr is a leftist fame. It is no wonder he thinks everyone on the ABC is of the left!

Bolt was castigating the excellent four corners program which showed a teacher at a prominent Catholic high School in Melbourne attempting to groom a student.

This was more bias by the ABC against the Catholic denomination. Apparently the ABC was out to get him. Never mind a jury of his peers found him guilty and then an Appeal court upheld that charge it was all the ABC's fault.

Bolt and Henderson then charged into the four corners program unaware just how much they were being show up as complete and utter prats.

both later made apologies when at leat the penny dropped.

This episode merely shows what occurs when you have an obsession you won't let go.

We need a carbon price

Tony Wood of the Grattan Institute has a topical article on the need for a carbon price.

I agree. It has immense advantages.
1) It internalises the costs that are not in the price. i.e the current price does not cover all its costs. 
2) This means it covers the negative externalities the product has
3) It makes trantion to a low carbon economy much easier. All industries knows what is going on and they can react in any way they wish to reduce their carbon footprint.

Painting

Yesterday I was very busy painting.

This painting came about because we are redoing the ensuite. One interesting thing found was not one but two beehives ( not live) in the woodwork near the toilet.
 Agh.

We had had to paint downstairs which we have converted into a office. It has all our computers plus our largest TV.

I have to say i hate painting. When we bought this place many moons ago I had to paint every room plus the outside toilet.

Although I cannot complain. We have made a lot of improvements over the years. always when I was between jobs.

We have redone the kitchen, laundry, dining room, ensuite, guest  bathroom, redone downstairs, the whole driveway, the roof and put solar panels on.

Just getting too old to do this much more.

Around the Traps 21/2/20

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Hal Pawson  et al on australias-housing-system-needs-a-big-shake-up-heres-how-we-can-crack-this-130291
• Dianne Kraal on in-the-midst-of-an-lng-export-boom-why-are-we-getting-so-little-for-our-gas
• John Quiggin on baristas-and-coal-miners-apples-and-oranges
• Ross Gittins on home-ownership-has-become-devouring-monster
• Croaking Cassandra on simply-unfit, nationals-economic-plan
• David Jones et al  on rain-has-eased-the-dry-but-more-is-needed-to-break-the-drought
• Michael Woods on home-owning-older-australians-should-pay-more-for-residential-aged-care
• Gary Mortimer on why-australians-fell-out-of-love-with-holdens
• Renew Economy on small-is-beautiful-as-solar-farms-look-for-ways-around-grid-chaos , victoria-intervenes-to-try-and-solve-wind-and-solar-bottlenecks-in-local-grid, cannon-brookes-teams-with-tesla-5b-to-fund-solar-and-batteries-for-fire-victims, origin-profit-hit-by-outages-and-solar-uptake-battery-plans-hostage-to-ungi
• Dennis Muller on court-ruling-against-abc-highlights-the-enormous-deficiency-in-laws-protecting-journalists-sources
• Jack Fahey on vale-holden-how-americas-general-motors-sold-us-the-australian-dream
• Stephen Duckett on young-people-dropping-private-health-hurts-insurers-most-not-public-hospitals
• David Brewster on australia-can-t-continue-divide-indian-ocean-two
• Nick Gruen on vale-holden-hoist-from-the-archives
• Grant Williamson er al on yes-the-australian-bush-is-recovering-from-bushfires-but-it-may-never-be-the-same
• Wallace Boon Law on i-made-bushfire-maps-from-satellite-data-and-found-a-glaring-gap-in-australias-preparedness
• Kevin Tolhurst on the-burn-legacy-why-the-science-on-hazard-reduction-is-contested
• Greg Jericho on we-seem-resigned-to-low-wages-growth-but-heroic-budget-predictions-roll-in

Northern America

• Elliot Hannan on white-house-memo-admits-no-imminent-threat-iran-soleimani-assassination
• Barkley Rosser on engel-criticizes-trump-on-soleimani
• Stephen Gordon on choosing the right target
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-january-housing-starts
• Aaron Rupar on trump-blagojevich-kerik-milken-negron-debartolo-pardons-corruption
• Dahlia Lithwick on william-barr-fall-department-of-justice-donald-trump
• Jeffrey Toobin on the-trouble-with-donald-trumps-pardons
• Coppolla comment on much-ado-about-nothing
• Menzie Chinn on explaining-the-administrations-economic-forecast
• the conversable economist on the-us-rental-housing-market

Europe

• long and variable on the-get-brexit-done-lot-want-cheerful-soldiers-not-philosopher-king-technocrats , eu-trade-talks-chart-crime
• stumbling and mumbling on when-reputation-misleads
• Mainly Macro on the-left-needs-to-campaign-for-social-liberalism

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on global-spillovers-of-a-china-hard-landing
• Philip Citowicki on domestic-vulnerabilities-lie-behind-china-s-aggressive-expansion
• Katie Kalinova on japan-south-korea-tensions
• Tyler Cowen on how-japan-avoided-a-bond-market-panic
• Rowan Callik on how-vulnerable-is-xi-jinping-over-coronavirus-in-todays-china-there-are-few-to-hold-him-to-account
• Nora Schenlig on coronavirus-and-flow-information-chinese-party-state
• Titlu Basu on china-japan-us-triangle-abe-s-balancing-act
• Barkley Rosser on who-got-iraqi-oil

Wonk

• Benedicte Centi-Tok on critical-minerals-are-vital-for-renewable-energy-we-must-learn-to-mine-them-responsibly
• Tim Harford on why-my-purchase-choices-have-the-kiss-of-death, the-prisoners-dilemma-at-70-at-what-we-get-wrong-about-it
• Tyler Cowen on is-5g-underperforming
• the conversable economist on writing-intro-to-your-economics-research-paper , the-herfindahl-hirschman-index-story
• stumbling and mumbling on barriers-to-cognitive-diversity
• Tony Walker on why-the-global-battle-over-huawei-could-prove-more-disruptive-than-trumps-trade-war-with-china
• Deborah Farias on politics-fire-amazon-australia
• Croaking Cassandra on what-if-covid-19-things-get-really-bad

General

• Gregory Moore on here-are-5-practical-ways-trees-can-help-us-survive-climate-change
• Larissa Chritensen et al  on grooming-what-parents-should-know-and-what-schools-should-do-if-they-suspect-it

Climate

• David Appell on the-denial-you-see-now-its-hard-to-even-take-its-measure
• mpyhu on giss-january-global-up-by-008-from-december
• Howhopper on hot-enough-for-you-faster-it-warms

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• making-differential-equation-models-in-stan-more-computationally-efficient-via-some-analytic-integration
• researcher-offers-ridiculous-reasons-for-refusing-to-reassess-work-in-light-of-serious-criticism
• how-many-patients-do-doctors-kill-by-accident
• is-it-really-true-that-candidates-who-are-perceived-as-ideologically-extreme-do-even-worse-if-they-actually-pose-as-more-radical-than-they-really-are
• this-study-could-be-just-fine-or-not-maybe-ill-believe-it-if-theres-an-independent-preregistered-replication
• a-normalizing-flow-by-any-other-name
• an-article-in-a-statistics-or-medical-journal-using-simulations-to-convince-people-of-the-importance-of-random-variation-when-interpreting-statistics
• calling-all-cats

Retired Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Econometric Sense on randomized-encouragement
• Freakometrics on quartile regression

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• tech-self-governance
• how-do-we-know-if-things-have-got-better
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-6-to-engineer-is-human
• Dan Crawford on review-of-stuff-matters
• Chris Bertram on an-important-new-book-about-refugeehood

Vox Wonk

• how-bad-news-can-harm-economic-development
• promise-automated-historical-data-linkage
• place-based-payroll-taxes-and-regional-employment
• beverage-market-disruptions-and-their-trade-consequences
• bilateral-trade-imbalances-hidden-causes-and-hidden-effects
• political-risk-and-exchange-rates-lessons-brexit
• women-policymakers-do-make-difference
• euro-transfer-union-start
• leveraging-posterity-s-prosperity
• populism-political-risk-and-economy

Why Catallaxy is a joke.

When Catallaxy was run by Soony it was a good blog.

 Under Sinclair Davidson it has become a joke. Full of articles that are inaccurate, based on lazy 'research'  and simply anti-intellectual in it diet.

Let us examine a few articles to see why.

First of all our old mate Katesy.  He is never one to let facts get in the way of an opinion.
Trump has delivered an economic miracle but hang on Trump has increased public spending since he gained office Well we should expect Katesy to know that. Has anyone found a structural break .since he took office. Well no.  Oh yeah he has increased the Budget Deficit like all Republican Presidents but our Katesy can't bring himself to criticise this! What a hypocrite.

Next is is someone who used to be known as Spartacus. He alleges a number of things about the ABC however he cannot even give us what the definitions of the phrases he uses. Nor of course can he give us any examples.
This bloke does not even want the ABC to buy BBC programs !! what a bozo.  What no Endeavour??

A blog for the ignorant, written by the ignorant advertising their ignorance.

The Mentalist

I have recently gone back to watching the Mentalist.  I watched it previously on TV because of Simon Baker who is an Aussie and I had watched in the Guardian.

The Mentalist is simply Simon Baker. He makes the show and he dies it superbly.

Read the link to find out about the series . to my mind the series goes in three parts.
There is where Red John is in the background. He is an evil serial killer but very smart. This is very good with wonderful worl chenistry between Jane and Lisbon.
Then there is where Red John is front and centre and is eventually killed. This is boring and Red John goes from being an evil genius to a boofhead.
Lastly there is the part where Jane and others are part of the FBI. It is almost a new series. This is rerrifi. All the characters are great as are the plots. It is almost the perfect way for the series to end.

When the series starts there are some good characters , Cho is my favourite who delivers deapan statements brilliantly and others who are not. such as Rigsby and Van Pell.

My wife say Simon Baker is very handsome so if they were going to go with romance after Red John is dead they needed a beautiful woman. robin Tunney who plays Lisbon is average looking and perhaps the only woman who looks bad in a dress.

If you have not watched the Mentalist previously then watch it online. My sons and I are doing that now and are immensely enjoying it.

It is essential in these times!

The AFP behaving badly

I am afraid the AFP have lost all credibility.

Firstly they raided a journalist and the ABC on 'national security' grounds. Only problem was it took them some two years to do that. Some national security. Also important here is the allegation of war crimes. If our soldiers commit war crimes we should know about it. It should b never be hidden from the public view.
It was readily apparent they were not interested in national security but whom the whistleblower was!

Secondly we had their absurd and very specious reply to the Angus Taylor affair. Remember he used a forged document to make a public accusation against Sydney City council. Taylor quite absurdly said he dowmloaded the figures from the Council's website.  It was found very quickly by tech heads this was impossible.
Thus we have a very simple investigation said to take too much time and not important.

A very poor look.

Book Review: Super Power by Ross Garnaut

This is a super book pardon the pun.
We open by finding out that less water in going into the Murray Darling but more water is being taken out. Fish kills are now the norm rather than the exception!

Garnaut writes in an very understandable way how Australia has a competitive advantage in renewable energy and if we capitalise on that we can go gang busters on it.

It also has the beauty ( ?) of not being a large book.

Just read it and hope the political class of Australia can do something in this area.

Around the Traps 14/2/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Goss on making-better-use-of-australias-top-teachers-will-improve-student-outcomes-heres-how-to-do-it
• Nicholas Gruen on whitlam-didnt-really-end-our-old-honours-system-were-still-handing-orders-of-australia-to-the-wrong-people
• Croaking Cassandra on the-productivity-commission-again, product-market-regulation, an-unimpressive-mpc, the-productivity-commission
• renew economy on welcome-to-taylor-ball-how-the-game-has-changed-in-australias-energy-markets , coalition-compares-wind-and-solar-to-dole-bludgers-pushes-for-coal-nuclear, coalition-to-fast-track-three-nsw-projects-including-st-bakers-coal-plan , wind-solar-projects-warned-of-seven-year-delays-in-victoria-nsw, were-out-big-contractor-dramatically-quits-australian-solar-sector, agl-says-batteries-at-tipping-point-but-renewables-choked-by-connection-woes, wind-and-batteries-saved-the-day-when-storm-cut-south-australia-adrift
• Bjorn Stermberg on go-local-how-to-keep-the-power-on-when-disaster-hits
• Greg Jericho on the-stumbling-australian-economy-needs-rescuing , coalitions-fervour-for-a-budget-surplus-cools-as-prospects-turn-to-toast
• Minggming Chen on we-depend-so-much-more-on-chinese-travellers-now-that-makes-the-impact-of-this-coronavirus-novel
• Ross Gittins on the-great-australian-dream-is-keeping-the-economy-weak , lucky-country-has-lost-its-dynamism-and-find-where-it-is
• Allen Finkel on chief-scientist-we-need-to-transform-our-world-into-a-sustainable-electric-planet
• Matt McDonald on climate-change-security-and-australian-bushfires
• Ian Wright and Jason Reynolds on heavy-rains-are-great-news-for-sydneys-dams-but-they-come-with-a-big-caveat
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-a-connected-world-makes-this-coronavirus-scarier-but-also-helps-us-deal-with-it

Northern America

• Gorana Grcic on what-trump-s-state-union-tells-us-about-his-re-election-bid
• Menzie Chinn on why-i-still-think-june-2019-employment-is-lower-than-reported
• the conversable economist on global-r-stagnant-us-position , the-transformation-of-federal-spending, income-contingent-student-loan-repayment, telephone-switchboard-operators-rise-and-fall
• Erin Hurley on trump-impeachment-aftermath
• Ryan Goodman and Joshua Gletzer on trump-friday-night-massacre-alex-vindman-autocrat
• Dylan Mathews et al on new-hampshire-primary-winners-losers-sanders-klobuchar
• Ronald Brownstein on bernie-sanderss-narrow-victory-new-hampshire
• John Cassidy on the-new-hampshire-result-signals-a-long-nationwide-democratic-battle

Europe

• Riley Begin on irish-election-results-tie-sinn-fein-fine-gael-fianna-fail
• Mainly Macro on the-uks-place-in-world
• stumbling and mumbling on thatcherisms-death
• Maria Farrell on my-country-hard-right-or-wrong

Asia

• Haiquing Yu on the-coronavirus-and-chinese-social-media-finger-pointing-in-the-post-truth-era
• Elaine Pearson on five-urgent-issues-indonesia-s-president
• Lauren Williams on middle-east-dispatch-paper-closes-rift-opens-syria-slips
• Barkley Rosser on is-iraq-about-to-switch-from-us-to-russia

Wonk

• Tim Harford on two-cheers-for-the-dematerialising-economy
• long and variable on power-no-thanks-im-a-decently-paid-and-fulfilled-megaphone
• stumbling and mumbling on the-dangers-in-balance
• Nick Gruen on defending-the-public-interest-in-independence-in-the-age-of-deep-spin
• Norman Day on buildings-kill-millions-of-birds-heres-how-to-reduce-the-toll
• Marc Bellamare on always takers never givers
• the conversable economist on south-africa-mired-in-stagnation, winter-2020-journal-of-economic-of-economic-perspectives
• Nick Gruen on trust-and-the-competition-delusion-a-new-frontier-for-political-and-economic-reform
• Cornelia Tremann on africa-us-plays-catch-china
• Lord Keynes on academic-agent-on-excess-capacity
• Peter Temin on the roman market economy Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-questioning-the-puzzle-fiscal-policy-exchange-rate-and-inflation
• Ian Mackay and Katherine Arden on theres-no-evidence-the-new-coronavirus-spreads-through-the-air-but-its-still-possible

General

• John  Silke and Natjoua Latoui on what-is-autoinflammatory-disease-the-rare-immune-condition-with-waves-of-fever
• BOM on explainer-how-is-rain-forecast

Climate

• Idiot tracker on climate-2020-still-on-glide-path-to-disaster
• and Then Theres Physics on but-rcps
• John Cook on climate-misinformation-accountability
• Hotwhopper on judith-currys-temperature-predictions
• Open Mind on cult-of-stupidity-naming-names

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• putting-megan-higgs-and-thomas-basboll-in-the-room-together
• the-hot-hand-fallacy-fallacy-rears-its-ugly-ugly-head
• evidence-based-medicine-eats-itself
• monte-carlo-winning-the-lottery
• expert-writes-op-ed-in-nyt-recommending-that-we-trust-the-experts
• intended-consequences-are-the-worst
• how-good-is-the-bayes-posterior-for-prediction-really
• repeating the experiment
• coronavirus-hits-all-the-hot-buttons-for-promoting-the-scientist-as-hero-narrative-cognitive-psychology-edition
• sometimes-research-just-has-to-start-somewhere-and-subject-itself-to-criticism-and-potential-improvement
• Kaiser Fung on the-media-is-spreading-a-fallacy-in-ever-more-imaginative-ways

Retired Genial Dave Giles  ( economatrics)

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• n
• best presidential bios on review-of-thomas-jefferson-the-art-of-power-by-jon-meacham
• docs books on the-struggle-for-israel-1917-1947-by-bruce-hoffman , munich-by-robert-harrisThanks Jim Rose

Vox Wonk

• bank-intermediation-when-interest-rates-are-very-low-long
• addressing-gender-inequality-choice-architecture
• leverage-risk-and-investment-case-gold-clauses-1930s
• accuracy-long-term-growth-forecasts-economics-researchers
• zero-price-can-be-special
• auto-enrollment-changes-who-passive-saver
• how-deal-big-tech-mergers
• costs-cascading-trade-protection
• fog-smog-value-pollution-information
• wage-employment-nexus-tale-persistence
• foreign-exchange-swaps-hidden-debt-lurking-vulnerability

Morrison performing badly

The Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been performing poorly for some time.

It started with his inept performance in attempting to defend the indefensible Angus Taylor. He was the man who if you remember attempted to say he got his information from the city of sydney's annual report off their website. He was trying to be smart and was caught out when it was easily shown this was impossible.Morrison was so unsettled by the he misled parliament quite a few times leading some 'conservative' commentators to say he was bad thinking on his feet.

Then came the bushfires. Leaders usually do well in times of crisis ( Tale the lamentable Daniel Andrews. He was I hate to say it outstanding. Knowing what and not what to say) but not Morrison. He looked way out of his depth.
Then we had sportsrorts.. As we have noted before this did not pass the pub test yet there he was defending the indefensible again.

Then we had his coalition partner engaging in a fight over leadership which has not gone away.

One  swallow  ( or to put it more accurately ) a few swallows do not make a summer but Morrison is not looking good at all and worse It is looking day by day the election gave us the wrong party to govern,
It is bad for Mmorrison as all the authority he got for winning the unwinnable election is going as more people on his side see it as a mere fluke rather than Morrison's strategy or campaigning.

Things may improve however he does not have a lot of talent to work with in the ministry so we shall see.

Whoopsy
I forgot to add he appears to take angry pills when under pressure which only exacerbates things going badly

you will note I have refrained from using any polling. The reason for this no polling organisation has yet to show us they have come up with solutions to overcome the HUGE polling failure from the last election

Electricity again.

I am astounded how some in the government and also the media can say black is white and say it with so much passion.

Yet again we have research from the CSIRO in association with AEMO that shows that renewables added with batteries is lower in cost to old coal fired power stations. It wipes the floor with new coal fired stations.
Yet there was Matt Canavan saying they were dole bludgers only operating when they want to. Does he not know the Telsa battery has saved Melbourne from blackouts which would have been caused by break down in units of coal fired power stations. Where did that power come form. how is SA an energy exporter these days?

Let us examine the problems associated with coal fired power stations.

• They take a long time to build
• No investor wants a part of them
• No financer wants a part of them
• No insurer wants a part of them
• They are unreliable. units break down with regular monotony more so nn very hot days when demand id at its peak
• They emit emissions and pollution

Funny how these problems are either never addressed or ignored.

We do not need any any new coal fired power station. They would add to prices and emissions.

Whoopsy.

I neglected to talk about dispatchable and base load power. They are two different things as has been discussed previously. It takes some time to power ( pun intended) up a base load power station. Dispatchable power can be done in seconds as the Telsa battery has shown time and time again.
It seems after railing against dispatchable power when the NEG was proposed they are now used them inter changeably.
The foolishness of base load power can be seen via a very simple example. Imagine peak demand is 1000 widgets of power.  The power station has 1200 widgets of capacity just in case of the numerous breakdowns.
Midnight comes around and demand slips to 200 widgets BUT supply is still 1200 widgets.

Christians behaving badly

I was looking at the Drum on Friday and Stephen O'Doherty was nonplussed about 'evangelicals' support for Trump.

The Prayer breakfast is a good example of this.
To a christian a payer breakfast is a very solemn occasion.
When you pray you are talking to God. When at a breakfast you are breaking bread with a brother or sister,

At this occasion which as you would expect not to involve politics well Trump did just that.
He did that using profanities, insults and demeaning language to anyone he din't like in politics.

What di the people at the prayer breakfast do you ask. They must have walked out surely. What Trump was doing was sacrilegious if not blasphemy.

No they cheered him just like republican legislators did later in the day.

My memory went to the Jewish leaders in the Temple built by Soloman for God where they worshiped the Sun God.

Around the Traps 7/2/20

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Iain White on housing-crisis-what-crisis-how-politicians-talk-about-housing-and-why-it-matters
• Brendan Coates et al on think-superannuation-comes-from-employers-pockets-it-comes-from-yours
• Frank Bongornio on remembrance-of-rorts-past-why-the-mckenzie-scandal-might-not-count-for-a-hill-of-beans
• Edward Cavanough on australia-decade-burning-environmental-apathy-climate-denial
• Ross Gittins on lack-of-trust-may-have-made-economic-reform-possible , morrisons-dream-climate-fixed-with-no-changes-to-jobs-or-tax
• renew economy on south-australia-to-be-energy-island-for-two-weeks-four-wind-farms-sidelined, aemo-takes-control-of-s-a-big-batteries-to-help-manage-isolated-grid, new-csiro-aemo-study-confirms-wind-solar-and-storage-beat-coal-gas-and-nuclear
• Stephen Kirchner on the-evidence-suggests-reserve-bank-rate-cuts-dont-hurt-confidence
• Anne Twomey on explainer-what-is-the-palace-letters-case-and-what-will-the-high-court-consider
• John Quiggin on the-statistical-significance-of-focus-groups
• Croaking Cassandra on flu-and-coronavirus-thoughts, please-limit-the-number-of-my-competitors
• Yee-Fui Ng on the-sports-rorts-affair-shows-the-need-for-a-proper-federal-icac-with-teeth
• Tim Baxter on scott-morrisons-gas-transition-plan-is-a-dangerous-road-to-nowhere
• Cameron Murray on superannuation-isnt-a-retirement-income-system-we-should-scrap-it
• Moyhu on more-trouble-with-australian-bushfire-statistics
• Daniel Flitton on australia-trouble-top-again
• Adam Morton on hazard-reduction-burning-had-little-to-no-effect-in-slowing-this-summers-bushfires
• Kevin Davis on heres-a-radical-reform-that-could-keep-super-and-pay-every-retiree-the-full-pension
• Anthony Richardson on no-food-no-fuel-no-phones-bushfires-showed-were-only-ever-one-step-from-system-collapse

Northern America

• James Hamilton on steady-growth-continues
• the conversable economist on re-seeding-americas-economic-and-technological-future , how-us-science-and-engineering-depends-on-immigrants , where-us-spending-taxes-deficits-looking-back-50-years, do-americans-think-science-is-moving-too-fast
• Barkley Rosser on will-impeachment-charade-fade-quickly
• Scott Shackleford on us-could-learn-how-to-improve-election-protection-from-other-nations
• Sara Morrison on iowa-caucus-smartphone-app-disaster-explained
• Sam Hendriks on trump-s-state-union
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-iowa-caucuses-still-have-a-great-claim-to-retain-first-in-nation-status

Europe

• Timothy Oliver on british-people-now-define-themselves-as-leavers-or-remainers-so-what-happens-after-brexit
• Simon Usherwood on brexit-heres-what-happens-next
• Paul Fritjers on brexit-is-not-tot-ziens-bye-bye
• Mainly Macro on what-causes-concern-about-immigration

Asia

• Yun Jiang and  Adam Ni on why-the-coronavirus-has-become-a-major-test-for-the-leadership-of-xi-jinping-and-the-communist-party
• Ivy Kweek on asean-perceptions-power-and-security
• Rodger Shanahan on middle-east-peace-plan-once-lifetime-deal-not-good-way
• Khang Vu on tokyo-olympics-chance-diplomatic-reset-north-korea
• Sam Roggeveen on us-china-competition-asia-who-risks-wins 

Wonk

• stumbling and mumbling on on-socially-influenced-preferences, in-praise-of-trade-frictions
• Mark Beeson on solastalgia-malady-our-age
• Brad De Long on north-atlantic-political-economy-1870-1914
• Tyler Cowen on coronavirus-would-be-worse-without-the-web
• Eric Lonergan on how-long-is-secular-stability
• Robert B Talisee on civility-in-politics-is-harder-than-you-think
• the grumpy economist on new-paper-fiscal-roots-of-inflation
• Mascromania on kalecki-on-political-aspects-of-full-emplyment

General

• C Raina MacIntyre andAbra Chughtai on coronavirus-how-worried-should-i-be-about-the-shortage-of-face-masks-or-can-i-just-use-a-scarf
• Allen Cheung on how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-cause-severe-illness

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on feebacks-runaway-and-tipping-points
• moyhu on ncepncar-reanalysis-down-0035-in-january , january-global-surface-templs-up-0047-from-december
• John Quiggin on the-worst-case-is-happening
• Idiot tracker on climate-change-2020-still-on-glide-path_6
• skeptical science on  earth is heating at a rate equivalent of 5 atomic bombs per second

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• forget-about-multiple-testing-corrections-actually-forget-about-hypothesis-testing-entirely
• the-fallacy-of-the-excluded-rationality
• is-there-any-scientific-evidence-that-humans-dont-like-uncertainty
• fugitive-and-cloistered-virtues
• fugitive-and-cloistered-virtues
• mrp-carmelo-anthony-update-trash-talkings-fine-but-you-gotta-give-details-or-links-or-something
• the-importance-of-measurement-in-psychology
• when-i-was-asked-who-do-you-think-is-most-likely-to-win-the-democratic-nomination-this-is-how-i-responded
• trumps-rising-approval-numbers-resulting-from-differential-nonresponse
• abuse-of-expectation-notation
• advice-for-a-young-economist-at-heart
• misleading-vote-reporting
• statschat on graphs-dont-matter ?
• Kaiser Fung on how-to-outsmart-the-election-pundits, quick-hits-on-data-issues-in-the-democratic-primaries-cancelled-poll-and-cost-of-complexity , a-big-loser-of-the-iowa-debacle-is-data-science

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• freakometircs on combine the modalities of a factor variable, what responsibilities for algorithms
• Marc Bellamare on its written in the stars

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• humans-in-the-machine
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-5-you-look-like-a-thing-and-i-love-you

Vox Wonk

• imperial-roots-global-trade
• how-retirement-can-affect-mental-health
• stress-tests-can-limit-international-spillovers-accommodative-monetary-policy
• defining-emerging-market-cities-using-lights-night
• effect-taxes-firm-firm-trade
• digital-money-and-central-bank-digital-currency-executive-summary
• capital-flows-risk-taming-ebbs-and-flows
• regional-redistribution-and-populist-voting
• phillips-curve-euro-area
• inflation-changing-economic-environment
• inadequate-data-protection-threat-economic-and-national-security
• roadmap-digital-led-economic-development
• how-information-and-social-norms-affect-criminal-activities
• how-services-boost-goods-exports
• more-or-less-economic-limits-blockchain

the reason for Trump's rise in approval ratings

Stats Guru  Andrew Gelman gives us Josh Marshall's explanation of the above plus a few comments. Well worth the read.

Quiggin unloads on focus groups

When you get him away from his secular social fascism John Quiggin is usually quite good.
This article on the-statistical-significance-of-focus-groups.

I wish to add a small nit. As Kevin Bonham has said numerous times there was a massive polling failure in the last election.

No polling firm has yet to fess up. Despite this their results on qualitative and quantitative. It is as it never occurred.
Until they do and tell us how they have changed their methods they deserve our distrust.

The ABC is kicking goals like never before

The ABC is on fire ( no pun intended).

Last night's viewing was compelling.
It started with a fantastic Four Corners program on the bush fires. We were there in the truck after it had broken down and fire all around them. We were there to hear how a man  had lost both his father and brother. We were there to hear about how the fires went across a river , surely the best hazard reduction of all time. We were there to see flames as high as 80 feet high.

Anyone still clinging to the belief that more hazard reduction was all that was  needed to avoid the bush fires after watching this is simply very very stupid.

Mediawatch then got stuck into the climate denialists at News Limited despite Rupert Murdoch tell us to the contrary.

We then had Hamish McDonald on a new Q&A. I admit to being a big fan of his but he was sensational last night. To the point when needed, allowing people to speak etc.

We previously had David Spears changing Insiders for the better.

Now if we can replace Fran Kelly on Radio National breakfast all will be good.

Ostscript:

I should add Andrew Constance was a star because he acted like a normal person. Jim Molan was an embarrassment because he acted like a (poor) politician on  Q&A.

Are the Nationals barking mad?

Barnaby Joyce is challenging for the leadership of the Nationals?

I simply cannot believe this. ever since he resigned in disgrace his judgement on every issue he talked about has been called into question. This from supposedly the 'best retail politician' in Australia whose 'partner' is all about public relations.

The next thing is has everyone forgotten about the last election. The Nationals should have lost quite a few seats BUT they did not lose any.

Scott Morrrison has perhaps been permanently scarred starting with Angus Taylor ( yet another like Brigid McKenzie a hopeless minister) but reinforced by the Bush fires tragedy.

If Joyce regains the leadership then a new coalition agreement is needed. Joyce has been very hairy chested about this. Joyce as a Mister was woeful, just look at water.
Joyce would walk strongly down the climate denialist road, more water for products that should not be growing in Australia, building more dams when water is needed for the rivers., That is  just for a start.

So we shall see in the Nationals are barking mad.

update:

He lost. The Nationals are sane.

I should also add he biggest supporter was Matt Canavan. He wants a new coal fired power station up in Queensland financed by the government as the private sector shows absolutely no desire to build one.
It would take about 8 years to build. By the time it comes on board with its costs of $80 MWh solar PV will be $30 MWh or lower and wind will be attempting to get there  as well.
Then there is the problem of units breaking down on very hot days. The very days when you need electricity.

Chinese acting badly

I live in Eastwood where there are a lot of chinese.

some, only some have been acting very badly.

Eastwood Woolworths do not seem to care quite a few chinese line up and take numerous lots of bags where 2 cans of A2 baby formula are in . One day the line was very long and it was easy to see the same people actually running to a trolley full of bags of 2 A2 cans and then running back to Woolworths to get some more. I counted 4 full trolleys plus some 7 other contraptions being used to store the baby formula.
They then send all this formula to China and make big bucks.

with the coronavirus we have a new problem.  A friend in the street I live tells me his wife works in a local medical centre and ONLY hand out masks to people  who have a medical condition and thus need it.
A chinese person came in ans was taking all the masks until he was stopped. He was forced to give them all back however it was found out he was attempting to to the same thing all al other similar centres in that building.
The reason is exactly the same.

The major problem here is a few chinese  are giving all local chinese people a very bad reputation.