Around the Traps 30/8/19

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bruce Mountain on australias-energy-woes-will-not-be-solved-by-reinforcing-a-monopoly
• Peter Goss and Julie Sonneman on better-pay-and-more-challenge-heres-how-to-get-our-top-students-to-become-teachers
• John Quiggin on what-price-nuclear-power
• Ross Gittins on why-government-controlled-prices-are-soaring, greater-social-inclusion-makes-us-wealthier, if-you-think-surpluses-are-always-good-prepare-for-good-news
• Gavin Wood et al on fall-in-ageing-australians-home-ownership-rates-looms-as-seismic-shock-for-housing-policy
• Croaking Cassandra on monetary speeches and policy , national-on-the-economy, immigration-and-nz-economic-performance, political-donations-national-and-jami-lee-ross
• Institutional Economics on qe-in-australia-what-would-it-look
• Michael Leach on after-a-border-dispute-and-spying-scandal-can-australia-and-timor-leste-be-good-neighbours
• Geoff Hammer onwould-you-buy-a-new-apartment-building-confidence-depends-on-ending-the-blame-game
• Sam Bateman on australia-gulf-will-we-make-difference
• renew economy on federal-coalition-is-white-anting-australias-electricity-governance, mining-giant-looks-to-wind-and-solar-to-power-huge-nickel-project
• Mihajla Gavin on militant-unionists-are-striking-out-here-are-4-things-unions-can-do-to-stay-relevant
• Tony Walker on yang-hengjun-case-a-pivotal-moment-in-increasingly-tense-australia-china-relationship
• Liam Elphick et al on the-government-has-released-its-draft-religious-discrimination-bill-how-will-it-work
• Deeo Prasad on we-have-the-blueprint-for-liveable-low-carbon-cities-we-just-need-to-use-it
• Stephen Grenville on should-scomo-support-trumps-madman-tactics

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-july-new-home-sales
• New Deal Democrat on an-extended-look-at-jobless-claims-and-a-note-about-payrolls, short-leading-indicators-show-slowdown-not-recession-for-now-anyway
• Maggie Koerth-Baker on no-bringing-back-mental-institutions-wont-stop-mass-shootings
• James Fallows on if-donald-trump-were-a-normal-ceo
• Dead for Tax Reasons on cpc-conspiracy-theories-statistics-canada-edition

Europe

• Mainly Macro on why-november-general-election-looks-lilkely
• long and variable on monetary-policy-delegation-rebounded-and-an-odd-trade-off
• long and stumbling on origins-of-corbynphobia
• Abhinay Mutthoo on suspending-parliament-could-be-the-act-of-a-credible-madman-or-master-bluffer-top-game-theorist-on-boris-johnson
• Anne Twomey on boris-johnson-has-suspended-the-uk-parliament-what-does-this-mean-for-brexit

Asia

• Amanda Tattersall on like-shooting-water-why-the-hong-kong-government-must-accept-that-compromise-is-the-only-way-forward
• Rodger Shanahan on middle-east-air-campaign-unmasked
• Sara Nina on twenty-years-after-independence-timor-leste-continues-its-epic-struggle
• Malcolm Cook on philippine-standoff-over-china
• Donald Rothwell on yang-hengjuns-legal-prospects-in-china-appear-grim-despite-australias-forceful-defences 

Wonk

• Nick Rowe on monetary-policy-as-farmland-price-policy
• the grumpy economist on why-stop-at-100-case-for-perpetuities
• the conversable economist on dorothy-sayers-on-susceptibility-to-propaganda-and-advertisements , robert-nozick-utility-monsters-and-experience-machines, thorstein-veblen-economics, charles-schultze-do-no-direct-harm-rule, hl-mencken-on-capitalism-vs-socialism
• Catherine Leining on climate-explained-how-emissions-trading-schemes-work-and-they-can-help-us-shift-to-a-zero-carbon-future
• Coppolla comment on the-high-price-of-dollar-safety
• Alex Tabarrok on short-selling-reduces-crashes
• Mainly Macro on a-new-macropolicy-assignment
• Macro Musings on more-on-us-as-banker-to-world
• Andrew Whitehouse on theres-no-evidence-caesarean-sections-cause-autism-or-adhd
• Eric Lonergan on the-prudence-principle-a-new-rule-for-fiscal-policy, a-reply-to-larry-summers
• stumbling and mumbling on the-fanaticism-threat

General

• Tim Harford on what-we-get-wrong-about-meetings-and-how-to-make-them-worth-attending
• Sascha Morrell on guide-to-the-classics-the-great-gatsby

Climate

• David Appell on are-brazilian-wildfires-abnormal
• hothopper on we-need-to-save-amazon-but-not-for-sake-of-oxygen
• and Then Theres Physics on high-emission-scenarios
• Katherina Petrou and Daniel Neilsen on acid-oceans-are-shrinking-plankton-fuelling-faster-climate-change
• Skeptical Science on IPCC's land report showed we're entering an era of damage control
• Emma Camp and David Suggett on meet-the-super-corals-that-can-handle-acid-heat-and-suffocation
• David Roberts on climate-change-fracking-methane-emissions
• Mohu on mapping-projections-for-climate-data

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• more-on-why-cass-sunstein-should-be-thanking-not-smearing-people-who-ask-for-replications
• the-importance-of-talking-about-the-importance-of-measurement-it-depends-on-the-subfield
• forming-a-hyper-precise-numerical-summary-during-a-research-crisis-can-improve-an-articles-chance-of-achieving-its-publication-goals
• more-on-the-piranha-problem-the-butterfly-effect-unintended-consequences-and-our-discussions-with-judea-pearl
• sdljskdlfj
• beyond-power-calculations-some-questions-some-answers
• how-much-of-the-change-from-2016-was-due-to-different-people-voting-vs-the-same-people-changing-their-vote-choice
• when-people-make-up-victim-stories
• whats-the-origin-of-the-term-chasing-noise-as-applying-to-overinterpreting-noisy-patterns-in-data
• is-the-effect-they-found-too-large-to-believe-the-effect-of-breakfast-micronutrients-on-social-decisions
• free range statistics on fitting-bins
• Kaiser Fung on wage-inequality-and-its-sources

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• holiday-reading-3
• ranging-widely
• once-upon-a-time
• Tyler Cowen on good-economics-for-hard-times

Vox wonk

• evaluation-academic-research-peer-review-versus-bibliometric-algorithm
• intergenerational-benefits-high-quality-early-childhood-education-underprivileged-children
• concentration-market-power-and-dynamism-euro-area
• fundamental-drivers-cryptocurrency-prices
• mmigration-fear-and-public-spending-security
• party-it-s-1995-resolving-wto-appellate-body-crisis
• sterling-depreciation-and-uk-price-competitiveness
• challenges-digital-age
• how-roman-transport-network-connectivity-shapes-economic-integration
• industry-anatomy-transatlantic-productivity-growth-slowdown
• debate-future-digital-money
• girls-boys-and-high-achievers
• investor-ambiguity-leverage-cycles-and-asset-prices
• how-segregated-housing-eroded-wealth-black-families
• fathers-workplace-flexibility-and-maternal-health
• potential-dangers-immigration-point-systems

Simon Wren-Lewis on Macrro policy

Simon Wren-Lewis ( who as everybody does who has a beard now looks much older almost Gandalf like, writes on macro policy today.

It is compelling reading given the problems we have in the Western world.

Why are people wondering about Refugees not being in Hospital

A Senate committee is investigating the Medevac bill and was told yesterday that only 4 refugees who have been allowed to come to Australia courtesy of the bill have been to Australia.

Firstly we must insist all people at Mannus or Nauru are refugees or not refugees. They surely cannot be Asylum seekers. The Australian Government cannot take that long to determine their status.

Secondly do people have no memories. All medical practitioners have been talking about the mental health problems of people at either gaol ( as it is a gaol minimum security gaol but gaol nevertheless).

This makes sense. People who flee their country because they are being persecuted or in fear of their life and then are put in gaol are likely to get depressed because of this. Very depressed. Evidence of this is people attempting self harm/.

Guess what,  it had also been said quite a lot that there are no people at either institution to help these people and they could only get help in Australia. quite a few are here BEFORE the Medevac  legislation.
The longer people are in this situation the worse the mental health problems will be

Nobody who calls themselves a christian would want these people to stay on Mannus or Nauru without treatment. It would be inhumane.

The WTO Appellate Body crisis

I am still trying to get over our cricket loss and that magnificent innings from Stokes.

From the sublime to the wonky.

The World Trade Organisation has an Appellate body crisis. It has only three not seven  members courtesy of the USA
This has been brought on by the USA and it over some time not recently. Bernard Hoekman does us a favour by exploring this problem and it is a very real problem

I was somewhat bemused to see him recommend more economics to be used. At present it is very much a 'law' body.

What an Innings, What a test

I am still bleary eyed after watching the most amazing innings I will ever watch.

England has a very poor batting line-up yet they manged to win a test they should have lost very easily.

Firstly let us acknowledge Stokes innings. Easily the best I have seen given the pressure. His technique was very good, his improvisation sublime.
He also had luck. Leach was very assured and never looked like getting out. The best 'one' we have seen..
This was easily better than Botham's in 1981 which had more than one snick going to the boundary.

Secondly it misses out on Stokes bowling  in the second innings when he bowled with guile, hostility and swing we had not seen previously in the series.

Thirdly it masks over England batting woes. They have no opening batsmen now Burn's  luck has turned. They need a number three and a replacement for Buttler.

Fourthly the knives will be out for Paine whose captaincy seen to wander when Leach arrived at the crease.

Fifthly our batsmen were unnerved by Archer at Lords when he 'pumped up the volume'. He did not get anywhere near that speed in Leeds because of the load he had at Lords. He should be back at his best with the break. however can Root use him correctly more so against Smith

How good is test cricket!

Whoopsy:

I forgot to mention the magnificent crowd.How come Pommy crowds are so good at test cricket and we in Australia are so boring. It is supposed to be the other way round. We have nothing to compare to the Barmy army. for shame for shame

THIS is the last day. THIS is great as well  Ricky Ponting

Around the Traps 23/8/19

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Jock Collins on the-regions-can-take-more-migrants-and-refugees-with-a-little-help
• Michael O'Keefe on pacific-island-nations-will-no-longer-stand-for-australias-inaction-on-climate-change
• Stephen Mills and Martin Drum on surge-in-pre-poll-numbers-at-2019-federal-election-changes-the-relationship-between-voters-and-parties
• Ross Gittins on were-relying-on-government-that-spurns-economic-advice, recycling-is-all-about-being-taken-for-a-ride
• Kritian Seibert on yes-getup-fights-for-progressive-causes-but-it-is-not-a-political-party-and-is-not-beholden-to-one
• renew economy on finally-australia-is-about-to-have-a-plan-to-de-carbonise-the-grid, aemo-worries-about-ageing-coal-fleet-and-summer-extremes-wants-new-tools
• Owain Emslie and Danielle Wood on rethink-inheritances-these-days-they-no-longer-help-the-young-they-go-to-the-already-middle-aged
• Dennis Muller on it-will-be-money-not-morality-that-finally-turns-the-tide-on-alan-jones
• Ben Mathews on george-pell-has-lost-his-appeal-what-did-the-court-decide-and-what-happens-now
• Rodger Shanahan on reluctant-coalition
• Croaking Cassandra on a-good-time-to-invest, monetary-policy-effectiveness, a-policy-costing-unit
• Clare Collins on why-full-fat-milk-is-now-ok-if-youre-healthy-but-reduced-fat-dairy-is-still-best-if-youre-not
• John Blaxland on australias-latest-military-commitment-should-spark-assessment-of-how-well-we-use-our-defence-forces
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-economically-australia-is-at-risk-of-becoming-germany-and-not-in-a-good-way
• Daniel Flitton on australia-gulf-order-based-rules

Northern America

• Tim Duy on paving-the-way-to-rate-cuts Thankd Brad
• Robert Waldmann on what-is-antifa
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-july-existing-home-sales
• Kevin Drum on donald-trump-is-not-well Thanks Brad
• David Graham on trumps-economic-anxiety
• Spencer England on importance-of-imports
• Aaron Rupar on trump-chosen-one-greenland-bizarreness-explained
• Peter Dorman on cheerleading-for-austerity
• Barry Eichengreen on trump-fixed-exchange-rate-judy-shelton Thanks Mark
• the conversable economist on Uwe Reinhardt on high US health costs

Europe

• Guido Alfani and Cormac O'Grada on  the timing and causes of famines in Europe Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on why-did-uk-become-failed-state
• stumbling and mumbling on smart-consumers-stupid-voters
• Kruggers on trump-germany-europe

Asia

• Adam Ni on beijing-is-moving-to-stamp-out-the-hong-kong-protests-but-it-may-have-already-lost-the-city-for-good
• Trin Le on vanguard-bank-standoff-shows-china-remains-undeterred
• Chan Jia Hao on all-may-not-be-smooth-along-china-s-digital-silk-road
• Ooi Kok Hin on malaysia-flipping-over-script
• Aarti Betigeri on modi-vs-wild-political-survivor

Wonk

• Mark Crosby on what-is-an-inverted-yield-curve-why-is-it-panicking-markets-and-why-is-there-talk-of-recession
• Mainly Macro on how-should-academic-economics-cope-with-ideological-bias
• stumbling and mumbling on the-dubious-logic-of-commodification
• the conversable economist on tradeoffs-of-free-higher-education, alfred-marshall-in-1885-present-position-of-economics
• Robert Waldmann on milton-friedman-and-the-keynesians

General

• Ben Desbrow on no-eating-chocolate-wont-cure-depression
• Coppolla comment on the-broken-contract
• the conversable economist on stephen-king-editor-is-always-right-to-edit-is-divine

Climate

• Matt Hemer et al on climate-change-may-change-the-way-ocean-waves-impact-50-of-the-worlds-coastlines
• Skeptical Science on Australian-Coal-Markets
• Ralph Chapman on climate-explained-why-we-need-to-cut-emissions-as-well-as-prepare-for-impacts
• Hotwhopper on if-global-surface-temperature-keeps-rising-at-the-current-rate
• Open Mind on global-warming-how-fast
• Stoat on a-dangerous-new-form-of-climate-denialism-is-making-the-rounds

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• what-can-be-learned-from-this-study
• i-feel-like-the-really-solid-information-therein-comes-from-non-or-negative-correlations
• the-issue-of-how-the-report-the-statistics-is-one-that-we-thought-about-deeply-and-i-am-quite-sure-we-reported-them-correctly
• did-that-bottomless-soup-bowl-experiment-ever-happen
• you-should-usually-log-transform-your-positive-data
• coney-island
• multilevel-structured-regression-and-post-stratification
• yes-you-can-include-prior-information-on-quantities-of-interest-not-just-on-parameters-in-your-model
• John Cook on zip-code-population

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• book-series-on-statistical-reasoning-in-science-and-society
• Marc Bellamare on estimating treatment effects with the front door criterion

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox wonk

• externalities-and-cheating-financial-crisis
• effect-automatic-enrolment-debt
• international-business-cycle-co-movement-global-production-network
• religiosity-education-and-economic-progress-19th-century-france
• neighbourhood-effects-early-education
• managerial-quality-and-productivity-dynamics
• lessons-economics-algeria-s-victory-africa-cup-nations
• economic-impact-india-s-demonetisation
• physician-bias-and-racial-disparities-veteran-health
• great-trade-collapse-evaluation-competing-stories
• assessing-house-prices-insights-dataset-price-level-estimates
• recruiting-high-tech-talent-learning-opportunities

coal fired power stations unreliable

AEMO issued a  warning about possible black outs.  They are worried about outages from coalfired (and gas fired power stations) when we experience very hot temperatures.

Aren't we lucky they are sooo reliable

The two best shows I have ever watched

The two best shows I have ever watched are:

• Endeavour
• Line of Duty

Both a pommy crime drams and are superb.
The acting, the writing, the character development are wonderful.

quite importantly the characters both main and minor are shown to have weaknesses as well as strengths. Characters change over time as real life people do.
Possibly most importantly and why British drams are infinitely superior to Yank ones is that any romantic interplay are secondary or even less in the overall story line.

(Indeed I would not mind if they did a new series of Inspector Morse from the Endeavour crew.  Shaun Evans is so much better than John Thaw it is not funny.  Morse was at Cambridge but on a scholarship but never finished his degree. Watching Shaun Evans you can believe that but few people would believe thaw went anywhere near a University!!)

Now like all series there are criticisms to be made of the storylines or of the characters but they are minor.  The two shows are eminently enjoyable and how I need two such shows at the present time.

The Ashes start to get interesting

The second test was always going to be a draw given the rain however it proved very interesting as the late Mr Spock might have said.
Archer was a revelation. Full marks to Alex Tudor who forecast this when he mentioned Arher was a better red ball bowler that white ball.. On a flattish pitch.
He is much quicker than anyone else bowling ( Starc could be as quick but mysteriously has not been selected). Archer proved a revelation because his bouncer gets up quick and is dangerous. No Aussie batsman liked his pace once he got to full throttle and smith in particular found his feet and brain wanting to do different things. In each case of Archer hitting batsmen they did not pick up the short ball until it was on them.
Smith in the all important batsman for us. He looked a mere mortal facing Archer. the question is how will he react when he is fit to bat again. He certainly looked punch drunk when he shouldered arms to a ball on middle stump to Woakes. Why oh why was he allowed to come back. That was stupidity plus.
Khawaja looks all out of sorts facing Archer as well.
If Smith cannot play on Thursday then we look very weak in the batting.

The Poms now look much more impressive.
 I have previously said I could not see how they could take 20 Aussie wickets. I am still somewhat not confident they can. Archer was dynamic but Root is not a captain and handled him badly by bowling much too much. Woakes is bowling far too short a line too much thus negating the swing. Broad is willing but not the bowler of the past ( although he was faster than Archer in the second innings until Archer took Warner's wicket.) Stokes is still not bowling as well as  he can but the spinning department has improved.
If the other bowlers keep it tight and Archer unleashes his pace they could easily win BUT they have to be tight.
On the other hand if smith does not play the Poms should win. Our batting is very weak and poor from a technical point of view.

From a bowler's point of view will Cummins bounce as much as he has in the past knowing Archer is quicker and better?

Whoopsy.
 I forgot to talk about the pommy's batting woes. clearly Roy is not a test batsman. Denley always looks god but fails to deliver. Root is not the batsman of yore. Buttler at present does not lloklike a test batsman. ( Can some-one tell me why Buttler keeps in limited over cricket but Bairstow does in test cricket?). Their tail end looks good to help but they need their batsmen to start looking like batsman.

Around the Traps 16/8/18

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Samantha Hepburn on why-is-the-australian-energy-regulator-suing-wind-farms-and-why-now
• Peter Martin on rba-update-governor-lowe-points-to-even-lower-rates
• Denis Muller on dutton-directive-gives-journalists-more-breathing-space-but-not-whistleblowers
• Ross Gittins on were-edging-towards-admitting-were-in-secular-stagnation, worried-lowe-flouts-convention-to-push-for-wage-rises-now
• Greg Jericho on chilly-economic-winds-are-blowing-and-budget-fairytales-are-cold-comfort, the-governments-wages-growth-predictionswishful-thinking
• Jacqueline Williams on australia-urgently-needs-real-sustainable-agriculture-policy
• Rod Glover and Beth Noveck on to-restore-trust-in-government-we-need-to-reinvent-how-the-public-service-works
• Euan Graham on australia-has-too-few-home-grown-experts-on-the-chinese-communist-party-thats-a-problem
• John Quiggin on adani-beware-coal-is-on-the-road-to-becoming-completely-uninsurable
• Croaking Cassandra on a-good-time-to-invest
• Tony Walker on morrison-needs-to-take-control-of-china-policy-but-leave-room-for-dissent
• Jeff Seadon on how-recycling-is-actually-sorted-and-why-australia-is-quite-bad-at-it
• renew economy on big-utilities-stall-on-clean-energy-transition-despite-the-economics, feather-dust-up-energy-institutions-fall-out-over-winds-role-in-s-a-blackout, aemo-models-step-change-shift-to-renewables-for-20-year-planning-blueprint
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-amid-talk-of-recessions-our-progress-on-wages-and-unemployment-is-almost-non-existent
• Adrian Cameron et al on supermarkets-put-junk-food-on-special-twice-as-often-as-healthy-food-and-thats-a-problem

Northern America

• Tim Harford on us-health-care-is-literally-killing-people
• Robert Waldmann on market-oriented-solutions-to-the-problem-of-too-many-guns
• the conversable economist on paying-kidney-donors-covering-expenses, uwe-reinhardt-on-high-US-healthcare-costs, limits-for-corporate-bigness
• Brad De Long on the-flight-to-safety-in-asset-markets-has-now-become-a-thing-in-itself
• the grumpy economist on whither-the-fed, america-china-superpower-rivalry-history
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-increase -in-inflation
• Tim Duy on another-portion-of-yield-heading-toward-inversion Thanks Brad
• New Deal Democrat on real-average-and-aggregate-wage-growth-for-july-2019-yellow-flag-for-aggregate-wages
• Uneasy Money on unhappy-anniversary,yield-curve-inversion-and-the-agony-of-central-banking
• Spencer England on quality-spreads-2

Europe

• Mainly Macro on the-remainers-urging-people-to-vote-for-a-no-deal-brexit, will-we-get-no-deal-because-brexiters-want-it-more
• long and variable on asymmetric-radicalization-of-leavers-and-most-other-remainers, dismantling-and-devolving-the-pernicious-union
• stumbling and mumbling on tories-against-thatcher, the-trade-deal-fetish
• Yasmeen Serhan on boris-johnson-takes-questions-british-public
• Menzie Chinn on implications-of-yield-curve-flattening-for-the-uk
• Tyler Cowen on the-importance-of-economic-growth-for-italy

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-rmb-reaches-7-0-us-names-china-a-manipulator
• John Garrick on hong-kong-fears-losing-its-rule-of-law-the-rest-of-the-world-should-worry-too
• Stephen Grenville on china-s-currency-manipulation-context
• Eric Lonergan on japan-debt-monetisation-2012
• Adam Ni on beijing-is-moving-to-stamp-out-the-hong-kong-protests-but-it-may-have-already-lost-the-city-for-good

Wonk

• Dianne Coyle on economics-digital-markets-public-goods-regulation Thanks Brad
• Rebecca Barber on 70-years-geneva-conventions-and-why-we-need-them-more-ever
• Ruth Gamble and Alexander Davis on geopolitical-moves-jammu-and-kashmir-local-cost 
• Croaking Cassandra on current-interest-rates-really-are-unusual
• the grumpy economist on letter-2-from-argentina
• the conversable economist on taxing-sugar-sweetened-beverages

General

• Tyler Cowen on slavery-in-the-history-of-venice

Climate

• David Appell on nick-stokes-finds-july-2019-was-warmest, land-vs-ocean-warming, noaa-hottest-month-in-records, giss-also-find-hottest-month-ever
• and Then Theres Physics on sigh, a-thin-bench, this-is-not-sciences-job
• Real Climate on just-the-facts, the-antarctic-ice-sheet-is-melting-and-yeah-its-probably-our-fault
• hotwhopper on ipcc-climate-change-and-land-on-food-waste-(and-diet), hottest-july-and-hottest-month-on-record
• rabett run on the-foote-effect
• skeptical science on 2019 likely to be the second or third warmest year 
• Dan Lowry on new-research-shows-that-antarcticas-largest-floating-ice-shelf-is-highly-sensitive-to-warming-of-the-ocean
• Moyhu on giss-july-global-up-001-from-june

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• conditional-probability-and-police-shootings
• for-each-parameter-or-other-qoi-compare-the-posterior-sd-to-the-prior-sd-if-the-posterior-sd-for-any-parameter-or-qoi-is-more-than-0-1-times-the-prior-sd-then-print-out-a-note-the-prior-dist
• attorney-general-of-the-united-states-less-racist
• here-are-some-examples-of-real-world-statistical-analyses-that-dont-use-p-values-and-significance-testing
• beyond-treatment-versus-control-how-bayesian-analysis-makes-factorial-experiments-feasible-in-education-research
• as-always-i-think-the-best-solution-is-not-for-researchers-to-just-report-on-some-preregistered-claim-but-rather-for-them-to-display-the-entire-multiverse-of-possible-relevant-results
• replication-police-methodological-terrorism-stasi-nudge-shoot-the-messenger-wtf
• why-does-my-academic-lab-keep-growing
• statschat on blackcurrant-news, measles-arithmetic
• Kaiser Fung on whats-wrong-with-this-data

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• check-out-what-happened-at-2019-joint-statistical-meetings

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-politics-of-depoliticisation

Vox Wonk

• public-transit-infrastructure-and-urban-social-connectedness
• deskilling-among-manufacturing-production-workers
• financial-constraints-and-diffusion-technology
• spatial-patterns-and-city-size-distribution
• dissonance-short-and-long-term
• how-sweden-became-more-entrepreneurial-us
• fast-trading-and-virtue-entropy
• controlling-tuberculosis-evidence-first-community-wide-health-experiment
• legacy-labour-coercion-drc
• dynamics-household-organisation
• purely-financial-market-participants-improve-spot-market-performance
• financial-crises-regulation-and-structure-interbank-networks
• offshoring-and-decline-us-manufacturing-employment

Yield Curve jitters

wow,

I wake up ans hear the US market has gone backwards big time  because of an inverted yield curve.
See Menzie Chinn:

• wall-street-haruspicy-watch
• implications-of-yield-curve-flattening-for-the-uk

I have been a yield curve junkie for a log time and I have found an inverted yield curve will predict a recession if caused by a central bank raising short rates. Not so when bond yields fall.

Thus New Deal Democrat is not as worried as the markets about the US.

update:
Uneasy Money

A suspicion about spam

Each time I renew or change our car insurance  I seem to have an increase in spam.
It happened last year and again this year.

This time I did not put in my mobile number so the only unusual call I got was a robocall saying the ATO was taking legal action against unless I did something.

Nest year I won't put my mobile number in and see what happens.

Damned insurance companies

Film Review The Keeper

I was astonished but pleased my wife wanted to watch the movie called The Keeper which is the life story of Bert Trautmann.
As a kid who unnaturally loved football in Australia the stories of Bert Trautmann was legend. Breaking his neck but playing on in the last 20 minutes of the FA cup was the indeed the stuff of legends.Reading this and other stories in Charles Buchan;s Football Monthly or a football comic called Scorcher was a real thrill for me.

The Movie is essentially in three unequal parts .
Firstly there is Trautmann as a soldier and then POW.
Secondly we have him and his football career.
Lastly there is his first child's death.

He is traumatised by the fact he does nothing to stop a fellow soldier killing an innocent your boy. He feels this is the reason his child is killed. With the help of his wife he eventually moves on.

You do not have to be a football fan to enjoy this film as it is a bewdy. My wife loved the film and she does not like football. If you do enjoy football then the film is more enjoyable.

I highly recommend this film.

Update:

My youngest son also loved it.

What in the hell is The Energy regulator doing?

The Energy regulator is taking action against some  wind farm operators for the black out in South Australia in 2016.

Samantha Hepburn is good on this. Renew Economy is as well.

Two things stand out in this.

1. This action is at odds with the report on the incident.
2. Why has no action taken place against the owners of the coal fired power station whose units broke down because of very high temperature. It is ironic they are partly responsible for the high temperatures!)

We have to ask is there any political pressure being made here.

We do not know but this action does not add to any credibility to the energy regulator

Around the Traps 9/8/19

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on contemptible, interest-rates,wages-have-risen-faster-than-output-per-hour, keep-the-focus-on-monetary-policy, mixed-feelings-but-the-mpc-really-needs-to-improve-its-communications, reserve-bank-mps-part-2, fiscal-policy
• Ross Gittins on are-low-interest-rates-bad-it-depends-on-your-perspective
• Heiko Timmers on australia-should-explore-nuclear-waste-before-we-try-domestic-nuclear-power
• Stephen Duckett on we-can-cut-private-health-insurance-costs-by-fixing-how-we-pay-for-hip-replacements-and-other-implants
• Michelle Petrie et al on these-job-snob-claims-dont-match-the-evidence
• Watna Mori on png-making-sense-massacre
• John Quiggin on rethinking-nuclear, hard-cases-make-bad-laws-bad-judges-make-them-worse
• Tony Wood on gas-prices-are-set-to-stay-high-the-governments-moves-while-welcome-wont-achieve-much
• Hui Feng on the-china-trump-trade-war-has-spread-to-australia-were-now-at-risk-of-global-currency-war
• Anthony Forsyth on will-the-high-court-ruling-on-public-servants-tweets-have-a-powerful-chill-on-free-speech
• Jason Pallant and Sean Sands on death-of-the-department-store-dont-just-blame-the-internet-its-to-do-with-a-dwindling-middle-class
• Louise Grimmer and Gary Mortimer on more-than-milk-and-bread-corner-store-revival-can-rebuild-neighbourhood-ties
• renew economy on aer-sues-four-wind-farm-companies-over-south-australian-blackout, is-regulators-parting-power-play-against-wind-farms-just-a-political-stunt
• Tony Walker on as-australia-looks-to-join-a-coalition-in-iran-the-risks-are-many

Northern America

• Gregory Treverton on trump-and-question-intelligence
• noahopinion on why-kevin-williamson-is-wrong-about-povert-and-bad0behaviour
• Robert Waldmann on krugman-on-trump-and-trade-not-tariffic
• Spencer England on economy-may-be-weaker-than-generally-recognized
• Robert E Kelly on us-foreign-policy-restraint-without-retrenchment
• John Cassidy on donald-trump-and-lax-gun-laws-are-tearing-america-apart
• the conversable economist on innovation-policy-federal-support-for-r&d-falls-as-its-importance-rises
• the grumpy economist on trade-and-fed
• run 75441 on 4-out-of-5-mass-shooters-were-not-diagnosed-with-mental-iillness.
• Kruggers on trumps-china-shock, trumps-trade-quagmire-wonkish Thanks Mark
• Macroblog on what-the-wage-growth-of-hourly-workers-is-telling-us Thanks Mark
• Tim Duy on trade-wars-escalate, the-fed-cant-give-markets-the-certainty-they-desire Thanks Mark
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-blame-trump-not-china-for-the-looming-trade-and-currency-war

Europe

• Mainly Macro on fiscal-tightening-in-uk-recessions-1981-and-201-compared, does-brexit-represent-alliance-of-rentiers
• stumbling and mumbling on the-missing-backlash
• Alex Tabarrok on the-entire-german-yield-curve-is-trading-below-zero
• long and variable on lewis-goodalls-remainers-are-rubbish-conclusion

Asia

• Amanda Tattersall on the-hong-kong-protesters-have-turned-militant-and-more-strategic-and-this-unnerves-beijing
• Pooja Bhatt on what-china-s-defence-white-tells-us-about-beijing-s-regional-ambition
• the conversable economist on china-and-currency-manipulation
• Khang Vu on north-korea-still-interested-working-level-talks

Wonk

• Macromania on why-kevin-williamson-is-wrong-about-the-phillips-curve
• the conversable economist on some-thoughts-on-markups
• Menzie Chinn on purchasing-power-parity-and-real-exchange-rates
• Roland Rajah on china-us-currency-clash-whos-manipulating-who
• Tyler Cowen on has-the-time-come-and-past-for-negative-interest-rates
• Uneasy Money on irving-fisher-demolishes-the-loanable-funds-theory-of-interest
• Bank Underground on is-there-really-a-global-decline-in-the-non-housing-labour-share Thanks Mark 
• Promarket on global-declining-competition Thanks Mark
• Cacchetti and Schoenholtz on just-say-no-to-exchange-rate-intervention Thanks Mark

General

• Cynthia Mathew on viruses-arent-all-nasty-some-can-actually-protect-our-health

Climate

• David Appell on how-large-is-urban-heat-island-effect, what-rcp-is-world-actually-on
• moyhu on july-ncepncar-global-surface-anomaly-up, july-global-surface-templs-up-0033-from-july
• and Then Theres Physics on the-popper-ratio, a-little-knowledge-2
• Real Climate on how-much-co2-your-country-can-still-emit-in-three-simple-steps
• Skeptical Science on climate change made Europe's 2019 heatwave record up to 100 times more likely
• Alwyn Scott on general-electric-to-scrap-california-power-plant-20-years-early Thanks Brad
• Mark Howden on un-climate-change-report-land-clearing-and-farming-contribute-a-third-of-the-worlds-greenhouse-gases
• Arctic Sea Ice on piomas-august-2019

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• allowing-intercepts-and-slopes-to-vary-in-a-logistic-regression-how-does-this-change-the-roc-curve
• a-weird-new-form-of-scam
• are-supercentenarians-mostly-superfrauds
• you-are-invited-to-join-replication-markets
• study-finds-growth-mindset-intervention-taking-less-than-an-hour-raises-grades-for-ninth-graders
• multilevel-bayesian-analyses-of-the-growth-mindset-experiment
• Tim Harford on the-strange-power-of-the-idea-of-average
• John Cook on nearly-parallel
• statschat on business-confidence-2
• Kaiser Fung on where-is-the-app-that-makes-one-look-younger,more-grubhub-theatrics-with-yelp-as-supporting-actor

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• suggested-reading-for-august
• including-more-history-in-your-teaching
• the conversable economist on administrative-data-moves-toward-center

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-end-of-capitalism-as-people-knew-it
• Tyler Cowen on how-i-choose-fiction

Vox wonk

• retail-investor-leverage-and-speculation
• censorship-family-planning-and-historical-fertility-transition
• structure-global-trade-finance-very-long-run-view
• central-banks-and-reputation-risk
• how-private-prisons-affect-sentencing
• parliamentary-brexit-endgame

The Ashes are ours

Do you think that is presumptuous?  Perhaps but before I enlarge on why we will keep the ashes let us remember a few things from the first test.
We should have been our for less that 150 and we would not have made 100 had Anderson been fit
we bowled last and it is very hard to bat when you cannot win and are trying not to get out. conversely it is much easier to bowl.

Let us examine in detail why we have won the ashes.

1. England have too many players suffering a hangover from winning the World Cup. They are finding it very hard to motivate themselves after that historic win.Just remember this is all your are aiming for for four years. you climb Everest and suddenly you have to play in an Ashes series. Previous winners have lost the series just after the World Cup.
2. It is very hard to envisage England taking 20 wickets with Jimmy Anderson injured. IMHO Anderson is the best bowler i have seen of his ilk and he could play test cricket and take wickets when he is 50 playing in England.
3. Moen Ali is shot psychologically. This is occurred in the last tour of Australia and he has not recovered. Root's offspinners were more dangerous than his. They have no decent spinners.
4. Their batsman is Joe root and he simply cannot convert 50s into 100s.. Perhaps Stokes could but he appears to be suffering from a world cup hangover.

Therefore to England to recover the Ashes they need to make sufficient runs and then take 220 wickets. I cannot see it.

Oh and AFTERGROGCRICKET is the best cricket blog around.

Postscript:
Apparently root after the test with Ireland protested loudly about the pitch.It was too bowler friendly.
Mate it you get a flat wicket as you got at Egbaston then ?Steve smith gets centuries. Put a green tinge on it and smith then becomes very vulnerable.
you are an idiot!!

Abortion in NSW

We are having another debate on changing the legislation on abortion in NSW.

For all the talk of women becoming pregnant because of incest or rape this very rarely occurs.

The most common 'problem' that occurs is that two people who are not married have sex and pregnancy occurs.  Presumably neither wants to be a parent so the pregnancy is terminated.

This is the nub of the matter.  Abortion is seen as the final point of contraception.if everything else fails.

It is an utter evil concept.  That is Australia now.

Nuclear Power??

Our Hapless and hopeless Energy minister wants a parliamentary committee to examine nuclear power.

Let us help him out

Emissions
It is very good in this area HOWEVER it does use a lot of water. Where are you going to get it from?

Development

It takes a coal plant about 8-10 years to build a coal plant and something like twice as much , maybe a little less, in building a nuclear  plant.  There is a lot more regulation as would be expected.

Costs
Last time I looked nuclear energy has costs of around $120/MWh. New coal is around $80MWh whereas new Solar is below $40 MWh and could wel lbe $30 MWh by 2025.

Baseload Power

Angus Taylor says we need baseload power. ( google baseload power and john quiggin for a retort on that.). In short baseload power is only of use when State governments own the assets, This makes sense as having a lot more supply than demand means no blackouts which are electoral poison.
However when the assets are owned by the private sector It makes no sense at all.
Dispatchable power is what they want and coal, gas or nuclear energy is very poor at dispatchable power..

so Nuclear power makes no sense at all.

update:

John Quiggin
Renew Economy

Around the Traps 2/8/19

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on overselling-past-reforms, mpc-appointments-prioritising-sex-over-expertise, where-there-is-no-vision, thoughtful-analysis-of-productivity-from-the-opposition, why-does-good-government-matter, appointing-an-mpc-worse-than-trump
• Ross Gittins on memo-pm-governing-goes-better-with-a-sharper-public-service, higher-super-good-for-fund-managers-not-for-workers
• Barry Hart on nsws-water-plan-is-not-working-but-we-can-save-the-barwon-darling
• Adam Masters on meet-reece-kershaw-the-new-afp-commissioner-hes-confronted-superiors-before-and-will-need-to-again
• Peter Martin on theres-a-reason-youre-feeling-no-better-off-than-10-years-ago-heres-what-hilda-says-about-well-being
• Peter Whiteford on are-most-people-on-the-newstart-unemployment-benefit-for-a-short-or-long-time
• Michael Pascoe on low-wages-growth-continuing Thanks Peter Whiteford
• Greg Jericho on without-a-wages-boost-we-face-a-lost-decade-of-living-standard-growth
• Charles Livingstone on the-crown-allegations-show-the-repeated-failures-of-our-gambling-regulators
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-newspolls-back-but-should-anyone-care
• Michelle Grattan on high-court-challenge-to-treasurer-josh-frydenberg-under-section-44
• Robert McLaughlan on new-zealand-poised-to-introduce-clean-car-standards-and-incentives-to-cut-emissions
• Renew Economy on how-quickly-can-australia-transition-to-100-renewables, agl-buckles-in-political-heat-agrees-to-delay-closure-of-liddell
• Graeme Orr on high-court-challenge-in-kooyong-and-chisholm-unlikely-to-win-but-may-still-land-a-blow
• Nick Economou on renters-hold-the-key-to-low-voter-turn-out-at-federal-elections

Northern America

• Robert Waldmann on the-strange-anti-inflation-coalition
• Brandan O'Connor and Daniel Cooper on mueller-testimony-does-not-produce-smoking-gun-but-the-issues-it-raised-are-far-from-resolved
• Daniel Drezner on how-donald-trump-is-sanctioning-us-economy Thanks Brad
• Barkley Rosser on origin-of-2-percent-inflation-target
• Christopher Condon and Craig Torres on fed-cuts-rates-by-quarter-point-and-signals-potential-for-more Thanks Brad
• Mathew Yglesias on federal-reserve-interest-rate-cut-powel
• the conversable economist on can-market-price-housing-construction-help-low-price-affordability
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-battle-for-the-soul-of-the-us-democrats-thats-taking-place-before-our-eyes
• Alex Ward on trump-china-tariff-300-billion-10-percent-iphone
• Menzie Chinn on equipment-investment-capital-goods-imports-and-the-impending-slowdown-again
• Robert Waldmann on rick-wilson-his-former-party-and-1984
• Robert J Barro on trump-powell-politics-fed Thanks Mark
• Promarket on how-reforming-antitrust-can-restore-a-competitive-economy Thanks Mark
• Microeconomic insights on subsidizing-health-insurance-for-low-income-adults Thanks Mark

Europe

• Mainly Macro on there-is-no-mandate-for-no-deal
• stumbling and mumbling on johnsons-spending-challenge

Asia

• Nick Aspinall on can-taiwan-s-president-fend-populist-wave
• Amy Chew on malaysia-s-mahathir-has-no-interest-dynasty
• Peter Layton on trouble-air-tense-tuesday-northeast-asia
• James Goldrick on china-intelligence-gathering-ships-change-equation
• the conversable economist on chinas-belt-and-road-initiative
• Brad Setser on vietnam-looks-be-winning-trumps-trade-war Thanks Brad 
• Peter Walters and Naomi Smith on how-hong-kong-protesters-have-been-winning-the-battle-for-public-space
• Salagna Basu and Alexandre Dayant on china-s-aid-lend-your-money-don-t-lose-your-friend

Wonk

• Macro Mania on blanchard-and-farmer-on-phillips-curve
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-lets-forget-about-2-inflation, guest-contribution-political-pressure-on-central-banks
• Tim Harford on how-economics-can-raise-its-game
• stumbling and mumbling on against-adaptation
• Tyler Cowen on how-hard-is-it-to-stimulate-demand
• Uneasy Money on the-mendacity-of-yoram-hazony-virtue-signaler
• Eric Lonergan on cyclical-sovereignty
• the conversable economist on summer-2019-journal-of-economic-perspectives, administrative-data-moves-toward-center-stage
• Austan Goolsbee on business/federal-reserve-rate-cut Thanks Mark 
• Justin Wolfers on economics-useful-superpower-education Thanks Mark
• Raghuram Rajan on central-bank-fall-guys Thanks Mark
• Roger Farmer onwhy-rick-rieder-is-right

General

• Tony Press on importance-trust-preserving-antarctica-s-future
• Erin Hurley on bob-mueller-exits-stage

Climate

• Dan Crawford on climate-chaos
• Moyhu on comparison-of-surface-temperature, why-is-this-june-hotter , unadjusted-ghcn-v3-and-v4-global-differences-due-to-coverage-not-content
• and Then Theres Physics on climate-sensitivity-and-decadal-temperature-variability
• Hugh Saddler on national energy emissions audit
• Robert Engle et al on hedging-climate-change-news
• Peter Dorman on climate-equity-what-is-it

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-economist-does-mister-p
• swimming-upstream-monitoring-escaped-statistical-inferences-in-wild-populations
• concerned-about-demand-effects-in-psychology-experiments-incorporate-them-into-the-design
• just-forget-the-type-1-error-thing
• i-dont-have-a-clever-title-but-this-is-an-interesting-paper
• this-is-a-case-where-frequentist-methods-are-simple-and-mostly-work-well-and-the-bayesian-analogs-look-unpleasant-requiring-inference-on-lots-of-nuisance-parameters-that-frequentists-can-bypass
• the-garden-of-forking-paths
• this-one-goes-in-the-zombies-category-for-sure
• causal-inference-workshop-at-neurips-2019-looking-for-submissions
• John Cook on data-breach-trends
• Kaiser Fung on the-facebook-data-privacy-settlement-fails-to-impress, proving-to-a-machine-that-you-are-not-a-machine

Genial Dave Giles ( econmstrics)

• aaea-meeting-2019

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on the-great-reversal-how-america-gave-up-on-free-markets

Vox wonk

• legal-origins
• earmarked-paternity-leave-and-relative-income-within-couples
• who-are-you-going-believe-me-or-evidence-your-own-eyes
• trade-and-investment-global-economy
• investor-ideology
• hedging-climate-change-news
• perspectives-soft-power-eu-trade-policy-new-ebook
• international-evidence-forward-guidance
• potential-impact-machine-translation-foreign-trade