Monday, 17 September 2012

The polls

Yesterday we had three polls out. See the pollbludger for all the details.

Two, Newspoll and Neilsen, had essentially the same result after you take into account the margin of error.
The other Essential was completely different.
John Stirton from Neilsen tells us this and more.

From these results it is reasonable to conclude that the Essential poll is the rogue. Indeed it seems to be rogueish recently.

Why has this change occurred. Again  John Stirton seems to be correct. Whilst people were scared to death about the ETS BEFORE it occurred. This has almost dissipated since July when it came in.

This would mean having an electoral strategy about getting rid of the ETS whilst brilliant before it occurred is quite another thing  once it is in and the forecasted disaster never eventuates. This of course happened with the GST.

If this changes attitudes in other areas will be interesting. One essential poll ( not rogueish) showed only 35% of people realised interest rates were lower now than when the ALP won government.
If this perception eventually meets reality the Government might actually be in a position to win the next election.

However this Government is not very good ( read very bad) at selling anything.