Around the Traps 30/9/22

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Edwina Luck and Nicholas Greech on how-not-to-tell-customers-their-data-is-at-risk-the-perils-of-the-optus-approach
• Ross Gittins on monetary-policy-is-no-longer-fit-for-purpose, great-aussie-pipedream-rising-house-prices-make-us-feel-wealthier
• renew economy on the-staggering-numbers-behind-australias-82-per-cent-renewables-target, rooftop-solar-takes-even-bigger-bite-out-of-coal-market-as-grid-demand-slumps-to-record-low, landmark-battery-deal-in-victoria-another-big-step-towards-100-per-cent-renewables, agl-is-quitting-coal-what-now-on-renewables-workers-and-the-bottom-line, agl-joins-australian-coal-exodus-with-target-for-full-exit-by-2035
• Jennifer Williams et al on what-does-the-optus-data-breach-mean-for-you-and-how-can-you-protect-yourself-a-step-by-step-guide
• croaking cassandra on decline-and-fall
• Peter Martin on a-global-recession-looks-increasingly-likely-but-heres-how-australia-could-escape-it
• AJ Brown on how-does-the-governments-long-awaited-anti-corruption-bill-rate-an-integrity-expert-breaks-it-down
• Tony Wood on how-did-victoria-cut-emissions-by-almost-30-while-still-running-mostly-on-coal
• Peter Layton on buying-wrong-submarine
• Nick Gruen on the-david-solomon-lecture-government-2-0-a-couple-of-years-on-2

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-dollar-dazzles-once-more, guest-contribution-has-the-fed-pivoted-too-far
• the bellows on sleepwalkers Thanks Brad
• Lawyersgunsmoney on the-long-arms-of-trumpism Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on how-much-will-beating-inflation-hurt-american-workers, us-government-debt-is-not-a-ticking-time-bomb
• Dan Crawford on markups-and-profits-skyrocket
• the conversable economist on telemedicine-arrives, us-household-wealth-1989-2019
• John Authors on the-fed-is-pushing-the-economy-into-recession-and-needs-to-reconsider-inflation Thanks Brad
• new deal democrat on interest-rates-the-yield-curve-and-the-fed-chasing-a-phantom-lagging-menace
• Tom Sanzillo on us-campaign-undermine-esg-principles-about-power-not-good-investment-policy
• Greg Sargant on trump-maga-house-2022-elections-debt-limit-democrats Thanks Brad

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on tracking-the-euro-area-at-high-frequency, yield-curve-inversions-in-the-uk
• Mainly Macro on a-budget-that-harms-everyone-except-the-very-rich
• Safia Ammassan and Duncan McDonnell on what-will-its-first-far-right-leader-since-wwii-mean-for-italy
• Mathew Sussex on as-winter-approaches-will-putins-partial-mobilisation-help-russia-win-the-war-in-ukraine
• Ian Hill on ukraine-conflict-turning-point
• John Quiggin on status-quo-ante-bellum-what-does-it-mean-for-the-war-in-ukraine
• Institutional economics on the-rout-in-cable-says-more-about-the-BOE-than-the-UK-budget
• noahopinion on why-the-uk-is-having-an-economic-crisis
• stumbling and mumbling on the-full-employment-question
• present discontents on kwartengs-plan Thanks Tyler
• Adam Posen on how-bank-england-should-respond-uk-fiscal-policy-crashing-pound Thanks Brad
• Yascha Mounk on italy-election-far-right-winner-giorgia-meloni-fascism
• Nina Rathbun on what-are-tactical-nuclear-weapons-an-international-security-expert-explains-and-assesses-what-they-mean-for-the-war-in-ukraine
• Stefan Wolff and Tatyana Malyarenko on ukraine-war-west-condemns-sham-referendums-in-russian-occupied-areas
• Richard Folz on russians-flee-the-draft-as-the-reality-of-the-war-in-ukraine-hits-home

Asia

• Eduard Lazarus on making-sense-indonesia-s-fuel-riots
• Jonathan Guyer on iran-women-burning-hijabs-mahsa-amini
• Balsam Mustafa on iran-protest-at-enforced-hijab-sparks-online-debate-and-feminist-calls-for-action-across-arab-world
• Naser Ghobadzadeh on 3-ways-these-latest-iran-demonstrations-are-different-to-past-protests
• Paymon Azmoudeh on after-mahsa-amini-s-death-iran-protests-signal-generational-shift
• Pooyan Arab and Ammar Malecki on iran-protests-majority-of-people-reject-compulsory-hijab-and-an-islamic-regime-surveys-find
• Rodger Shanahan on iran-protests-more-things-change
• Adam Simpson on myanmar-desperate-junta-trying-failing-shore-its-legitimacy
• Henry Storey on water-scarcity-challenges-china-s-development-model
• Muizz Akhtar on china-climate-adaptation-heat-wave-future

Wonk

• Tim Harford on its-the-uncertainty-not-the-delay-that-gets-you-in-the-end
• noahopinion on non-western-economic-development-requires-risktaking
• Mercedes Page on neck-neck-election-future-internet
• the permanent problem on what-is-the-permanent-problem thanks Brad
• Felipe Tirado on brazilian-election-jair-bolsonaro-set-to-lose-but-his-legacy-will-be-harder-to-remove
• the conversable economist onsome-economics-of-diapers

General

• Steven Tingey on in-a-world-first-nasas-dart-mission-is-about-to-smash-into-an-asteroid-what-will-we-learn
• Reineke Weij et al on study-finds-famous-australian-caves-are-up-to-500-000-years-older-than-we-thought-and-it-could-help-explain-a-megafauna-mystery
• Christian Moro and Charlotte Phelps on what-position-should-i-sleep-in-and-is-there-a-right-way-to-sleep

Climate

• real climate on watching-the-detections
• volts on learning-curves-will-lead-to-extremely-cheap-energy thanks Brad
• Monia Rougan and Junde Li on shifting-ocean-currents-are-pushing-more-and-more-heat-into-the-southern-hemispheres-cooler-waters
• Saul Eblein on study-finds-methane-emissions-may-be-five-times-higher-thought

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• progress-in-post-publication-review-error-is-found-author-will-correct-it-without-getting-mad-at-the-people-who-pointed-out-the-error
  
• dangerous-messaging-around-a-recent-sids-study-this-time-dont-blame-the-news-media
  
• why-she-teachers-her-students-about-scientific-failure
  
• elicitation-from-different-perspectives
  
• stock-prices-a-notorious-new-york-times-article-and-that-method-from-1998-that-was-going-to-cure-cancer-in-2-years
  
• bayesian-inference-for-discrete-parameters-and-bayesian-inference-for-continuous-parameters-are-these-two-completely-different-forms-of-inference
  
• Kaiser Fung on what-about-safety, critics-stories-and-ethics

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• from-citizen-to-subject-in-cyberspace
  
• how-economists-think
  
• why-governments-get-it-wrong
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading-and-browsing

Vox Wonk

• inequality-hysteresis
  
• ecbs-asset-purchase-programme-granted-debt-sustainability-pandemic-its-termination
  
• measuring-openness
  
• historical-anti-fascism-and-right-wing-voting-italy
  
• case-for-climate-related-macroprudential-policy
  
• nationalism-till
  
• g7-plan-price-cap-russian-oil-views-leading-economists
  
• comprehensive-monetary-policy-frameworks-classification-goes-global
  
• regional-variation-gdp-head-within-china-1080-1850-implications-great-divergence
  
• improving-innovationaccess-trade-rare-diseases-eu-after-covid-19
  
• social-imprint-sovereign-defaults
  
• financing-ukraines-victory-why-and-how
  

The UK's problems

 Oh dear the poms certainly know how to stuff things up.

• Present Discontents  Thanks Tyler
• Noah Smith 
• Mainly Macro 

To make an obvious point the conservatives have no leadership at all at present.

My son has entered the property market

 Yesterday My son was successful in buying a townhouse which is near us. He had been quite diligent in building up his savings so he had much more then was needed for getting a loan.

He now has to payback the loan which at this stage he also can do easily.

I am pleased he has gotten a place for himself. It does help if you get married for example. I am also pleased it is nearby. It helps him both with his job and with his refereeing in winter. It is also good for us as he is nearby.

All in all a significant day.

Cricket season has started

 Cricket season started on the weekend. I was a bit unlucky. On Saturday we got to 31 overs after one interruption when the rain came. Too many puddles meant no more cricket.

My game on Sunday di not occur as one team forfeited. Damn it it was a glorious day for cricket.

This coming week does not look too good. Quite a bit of rain could make it highly problematic.

Still the season has started and that is a good thing.

Around the Traps 23/9/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Robin Smit and Nick Sirawski on we-may-be-underestimating-just-how-bad-carbon-belching-suvs-are-for-the-climate-and-for-our-health
• Mark Wooden on despite-high-hopes-multi-employer-bargaining-is-unlikely-to-get-wages-moving
• renew economy on wind-and-solar-records-tumble-again-as-coal-and-fossil-fuel-hit-another-low, labor-modeller-says-plan-for-free-credits-could-kill-integrity-of-safeguard-scheme, origin-announces-exit-from-gas-exploration-starting-with-beetaloo-basin, safeguard-mechanism-what-to-make-of-the-industry-average-baseline-scheme,fortescue-to-spend-9-2-billion-on-wind-solar-battery-and-hydrogen-to-get-to-net-zero-by-2030,report-underscores-abject-failure-of-safeguards-mechanism-calls-for-big-polluters-to-pay, consumers-reap-rewards-of-100-pct-renewables-as-wind-and-solar-farms-hand-back-windfall-profits, theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it
• Manuel Esperon-Rodriguiez et al on climate-change-threatens-up-to-100-of-trees-in-australian-cities-and-most-urban-species-worldwide
• Ross Gittins on dont-worry-about-inflation-punters-will-pay-for-it, a-home-of-ones-own-so-good-only-the-rich-need-apply
• Croaking Cassandra on a-canary-in-the-coalmine, we-deserve-better
• Peter Martin on the-mint-and-note-printing-australia-make-billions-for-australia-but-it-could-be-at-risk
• Greg Jericho on workers-did-not-cause-australias-inflation-woes-but-they-will-be-the-ones-to-sacrifice
• Andrew Blakers on theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it
• Adrian Beaumont on how-victorian-labors-failure-on-upper-house-electoral-reform-undermines-democracy
• Mathew Klugman on as-the-2022-aflm-season-comes-to-a-close-the-game-must-ask-itself-some-difficult-questions-especially-on-racism
• Institutional Economics on the-rbas-internal-review-of-its-bond-purchase-programs
• Jenny Gordon on memo-to-the-productivity-commission-fixing-inequality-is-the-key-to-productivity

Northern America

• noahopinion on no-the-us-is-not-a-poor-society-with-some-very-rich-people, the-end-of-the-pandemic, the-long-march-of-the-yimbys
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-texas-twitter-facebook-youtube-social-media-fifth-circuit-netchoice-paxton, donald-trump-special-master-aileen-cannon-11th-circuit-supreme-court-mar-a-lago-classified
• Jenny Blair on yale-study-more-than-335000-lives-could-have-been-saved-during-pandemic-if-us-had-universal-health-care Thanks Brad
• Daniel Immerwahr on Polany-in-the-US Thanks Brad
• Joe Connason on kenneth-starr Thanks Brad
• Robert Ayson on what-does-biden-mean-taiwan
• Aja Romano on adnan-syed-free-maryland-baltimore-criminal-justice
• Jeet Heer on gop-right-military-coup, graham-abortion-gop-right
• The message box on why-gop-voters-love-aholes Thanks Brad
• public notice on desantis-marthas-vineyard-vice-signaling thanks Brad
• Andrew Prokop on trump-lawsuit-new-york-attorney-general
• John Cassidy on why-is-trump-openly-embracing-qanon-now
• Geoffrey Skelley on latino-voters-shifted-right-in-2020-what-does-that-mean-for-arizona-and-nevada-this-year
• Tyler Cowen on the-marthas-vineyard-saga

Europe

• Tim Harford on my-former-tutorial-partner-is-now-prime-minister-heres-my-advice-to-her
• Christopher Michaelson on are-the-wests-sanctions-against-russia-actually-working
• Ellen Ioaness on russia-military-failures-ukraine
• noahopinion on cautious-optimism-about-ukraines-economy
• Bermet Talent on war-ukraine-pushing-central-asia-away-russia
• Dasniel Drezner on russia-ukraine-china-technology-west-war
• Mainly Macro on going-for-growth
• slow boring on russias-military-and-economic-strategy Thanks Brad
• Steffen Wolf and Tatyana Matyrenko on ukraine-war-putin-calls-up-more-troops-and-threatens-nuclear-option-in-a-speech-which-ups-the-ante-but-shows-russias-weakness
• Jen Kirby on russia-mobilization-war-ukraine-nuclear-threats-putin-speech
• Elliot Cohen on zelensky-ukraine-west-military-aid-supplies
• Miriam Ronzoni on why-i-am-not-as-worried-about-the-upcoming-italian-elections-as-everybody-tells-me-i-should-be

Asia

• Michael Clarke on china-s-ungainly-balancing-act-russia
• Prarthana Sen on concern-sri-lankans-fleeing-india-amid-economic-crisis
• David Brewster on rohingya-issue-requires-regional-solution

Wonk

• noahopinion on no-the-us-didnt-outsource-our-carbon-emissions-to-china, lovecraftian-intelligence
• Jenny Gordon on digital-finance-makes-international-cooperation-even-more-important
• Clare Arnott et al on even-mild-covid-raises-the-chance-of-heart-attack-and-stroke-what-to-know-about-the-risks-ahead
• renew economy on wind-power-is-getting-better-and-better-and-providing-more-value-to-the-grid
• Menzie Chinn on world-bank-is-a-global-recession-imminent, us-euro-area-and-china-gdp-over-the-pandemic-and-recovery
• Tyler Cowen on the-quantity-theory-of-money-is-underrated

General

• Katarina Miljkovic on for-the-first-time-robots-on-mars-found-meteorite-impact-craters-by-sensing-seismic-shock-waves
• Oscar Davis on explainer-socrates-and-the-life-worth-living
• Janice Crerar on curious-kids-how-is-lava-made

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on the-role-of-mathematical-modelling
• Skeptical Science on super charged summer of climate extremes
• Real Climate on a-ceres-of-fortunate-events
• Mark Cliffe on extreme-weather-fat-tail-risks-climate-change Thanks Brad
• Daniel Melino and Gemma Ware on thwaites-glacier-the-melting-antarctic-monster-of-sea-level-rise-podcast
• Alexander Cheesman et al on termites-love-global-warming-the-pace-of-their-wood-munching-gets-significantly-faster-in-hotter-weather

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-economic-pit-and-the-political-pendulum-predicting-midterm-elections
  
• whats-the-origin-of-two-truths-and-a-lie
  
• some-thoughts-on-academic-research-and-advocacy
  
• the-youre-only-allowed-to-publish-2-or-3-journal-articles-per-year-rule
  
• ted-talk-attitudes-reach-new-mexico-county-commission
  
• fill-in-the-blank-leads-to-more-citations-junk-science-and-unavailable-data-at-the-european-heart-journal
  

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on bayesian statistics data sciences and new risks, using home made statistics

Dianne Coyle

• goliaths-everywhere
  
• ways-of-seeing
  
• regiments-of-women-economists
  

vox wonk

• why-people-stay-poor
  
• africas-contribution-world-co2-emissions
  
• making-sense-consumers-inflation-expectations
  
• effect-macroeconomic-uncertainty-firm-decisions
  
• energy-costs-views-leading-economists-windfall-taxes-and-consumer-price-caps
  
• early-lessons-social-skills-and-self-control-bring-lifelong-benefits
  
• information-eliminates-female-students-preference-female-mentors
  
• assessment-damages-ukraines-productive-capacity
  
• sex-ratios-and-conflict-evidence-paraguay
  
• simple-economics-consumer-subsidies-natural-gas-and-why-it-matters-putins-war
  

Is the budget in rude health?

 The Treasurer and the Minister for finance announced the final budget outcome.

It is well down from what was announced at budget time and when PEFO came out.

The main reason but not the only reasons is that commodity prices ( mainly iron ore) are way higher than forecast in the budget. It appears few journalists realise finance insists on iron ore prices so low that there will almost always be an upgrade to budget outcomes.

The improvement has been all cyclical. There has been no structural improvement. This can be seen by the fact that Australia is at full employment and strong commodity prices are leading to large tax increases ( something that Wayne Swan  never saw).

Herein lies the problem for the ALP. Their child care policy will lead to a deterioration on the structural deficit so they have to cut in other areas quite a bit to ensure budget repair is on course.

We shall see next month whether they have done this.  They do have a problem. Too little reduction in the structural deficit will lead to higher interest rates. too much reduction could lead to a recession given interest rates are rising as well.

SA will be soon running on renewables only

 THIS article came out a while ago so it is aged but is important.

Experience has told AEMO that SA does not need as much back up as they previously thought. At its worst there were 4 gas fired generators ready to go just in case. If you read the article this has changed there will be soon only one gas fired generator.

This will change over time as the new windmills can generate electricity even in wind droughts. In essence no more intermittent electricity.

This is all exciting stuff. Couple this with changing fuel economy standards and it should be a breeze getting to 43%.  By the way electric cars can produce enough electricity for four days for a house,

The queen's death has been over the top

 I get some people are mournful about the Queen's death but it has been well over the top.

to give you but one example. The funeral was over almost all the TV channels so I retreated to the radio but there it was on the radio. It was on all three ABC stations. AM this morning except for one last item was all about the funeral. This is a disgrace.

So obviously Putin has done nothing since the death, no-one has dies from covid since the death etc. You get my point. It has been hard to get any news apart from the queen's death and it has been relentless. The ratings do not show everyone wants to see or hear about it. The ABC has been as bad as any news organisation on this subject.

Every news organisation should have a good hard look at how they covered this issue.

the Mid terms

 Two very interesting articles on the forthcoming mid term elections in the USA.

• Nate Silver
• Andrew Gelman

Both are must reads

Around the Traps 16/9/22

 It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie.Oy,Oy,Oy

• Institutional Economics on when-the-pitchford-thesis-goes-into-reverse
• Anne Twomey on what-are-the-legal-and-constitutional-consequences-for-australia-of-queen-elizabeth-iis-death
• Ross Gittins on labors-plan-to-fix-economy-has-three-big-bits-missing, helping-disadvantaged-find-jobs-is-now-the-hunger-games, the-housing-dream-that-became-nightmare-isn't-over-yet
• renew economy on explainer-what-is-the-nem-anyway-and-how-is-it-tracking-in-the-shift-to-renewables, australias-energy-regulator-struggles-with-reality-of-variable-wind-and-solar, untenable-even-companies-profiting-from-australias-carbon-market-say-system-must-change, no-need-for-nuclear-power-to-reach-australias-climate-goals-finkel, wind-energy-hits-record-peak-of-146-per-cent-of-state-demand-in-south-australia, remarkable-south-australia-may-soon-be-first-big-grid-to-run-on-renewables-only
• Charles Livingstone on now-sydney-has-two-casinos-run-by-companies-unfit-to-hold-a-gaming-licence
• Andrew King on a-nina-3-years-in-a-row-a-climate-scientist-on-what-flood-weary-australians-can-expect-this-summer
• Luke Slamorski on the-political-economy-of-medicare
• Croaking Cassandra on arbitrary-lines, the-9-billion-dollar-man
• Tristram Sainsbury and Robert Breunig on what-happened-when-we-gave-unemployed-australians-early-access-to-their-super-weve-just-found-out
• Michael Toole and Brendan Crabb on imagining-covid-is-like-the-flu-is-cutting-thousands-of-lives-short-its-time-to-wake-up
• Jenny Gore on the-productivity-commission-says-australian-schools-fall-short-on-quality-and-equity-what-happens-now
• Dennis Muller on media-coverage-of-queen-elizabeths-death-began-well-but-quickly-descended-into-farce
• Ben Phillips on that-243-billion-saving-from-axing-the-stage-3-tax-cut-is-more-mirage-than-reality
• Institutional Economics on revisiting-the-big-aussie-short

Northern America

• Nathaniel Rackich on republican-nominees-in-40-states-think-the-2020-election-was-stolen-heres-why-that-matters
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-yeshiva-university-yu-pride-religious-liberty-first-amendment-lgbtq, supreme-court-yeshiva-university-pride-alliance-religious-liberty-samuel-alito-first-amendment
• Menzie Chinn on inflation-in-august, guest-contribution-u-s-trade-deficits-and-exchange-rates
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-07
  
• Dahlia Lithwick on john-roberts-supreme-court-legitimacy
• noahopinion on august-inflation-update
• new deal democrat on august-cpi-sharp-gains-in-housing-and-new-cars-offset-declines-in-used-cars-and-gas
• Mark Danner on the-slow-motion-coup-mark-danner
• Laurence Tribe on deconstructing-dobbs
• John Cassidy on the-inflation-picture-isnt-as-negative-as-republicans-and-the-markets-are-saying
• Tyler Cowen on the-supply-side-of-the-labor-market-was-indeed-a-factor
• Michael Tomasky on behind-bidens-policies-is-a-sea-change-in-how-economists-think Thankd Brad
• Adam Gopnik on calling-trump-the-f-word Thanks Brad
• Nate Silver on will-the-polls-overestimate-democrats-again

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on ukraine-military-sitrep-sept-8th, russian-gdp, if-you-were-curious
• Tim Harford on how-can-the-uk-improve-its-productivity-i-went-to-legoland-to-find-out
• Eric Kramer on russia-is-truly-fcked
• renew economy on solar-power-saved-europe-e29-billion-in-this-summers-energy-crisis
• Mathew Sussex on with-his-army-on-the-back-foot-is-escalation-over-ukraine-vladimir-putins-only-real-option
• Mainly Macro on how-to-judge-fiscal-policy-in-time-of-truss
• Fred Kaplan on russians-disaster-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-fault

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on nearly-45-years-of-the-chinese-yuan-exchange-rate
• Michael Clarke on beijing-three-step-china-denies-deflects-dissembles-xinjiang

Wonk

• John Hawkins on one-year-on-el-salvadors-bitcoin-experiment-has-proven-a-spectacular-failure
• Nic Bisley on sco-illiberal-club-growing-global-significance
• noahopinion on thoughts-on-the-origins-of-wokeness , the-war-economy-batteries-and-drones, liberalism-is-resilient, blockchains-dollarization-and-capital-flight
• the conversable economist on work-from-home-disrupting-the-unwritten-labor-market, some-human-capital-controversies-and-meditations
• Thi Nguyen on us-china-rivalry-southeast-asia-need-not-be-zero-sum-game
• William Allcorn on understanding-global-right-wing-extremism
• Eric Kramer on fukuyama-on-russia-ukraine-and-the-future-of-democracy
• stumbling and mumbling on why-do-we-want-free-markets
• renew economy on fast-transition-to-renewables-will-save-the-world-18-trillion-says-oxford-study
• Rena Sakiki on quad-needs-stronger-economic-message
• Ed Young on long-covid-brain-fog-symptom-executive-function
• Sandwichman on happy-155th-birthday-to-volume-one-of-Kapital
• John Thwaites et al on we-were-on-a-global-panel-looking-at-the-staggering-costs-of-covid-17-7m-deaths-and-counting-here-are-11-ways-to-stop-history-repeating-itself
• Maria O'Sullivan on not-my-king-do-we-have-the-right-to-protest-the-monarchy-at-a-time-of-mourning
• the grumpy economist on fisherian-intuition
• Jean Boivin and Alex Brazier on missing-inflation-debate Thanks Brad

General

• Kira Westaway on curious-kids-did-humans-hunt-and-eat-woolly-mammoths-or-dinosaurs
• Kate Trinajstic and John Long on we-found-the-oldest-ever-vertebrate-fossil-heart-it-tells-a-380-million-year-old-story-of-how-our-bodies-evolved

Climate

• Skeptical Science on new study more than triples the cost of climate change damages 
• Moyhu on giss-august-global-temperature-up-from-april
• Bruce Robertson on carbon-capture-ccs-ccus-ccu

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• benford-goes-to-hollywood
  
• merchants-of-doubt-operating-in-organized-science
  
• whats-the-difference-between-derek-jeter-and-preregistration
  
• why-do-dickens-novels-have-all-those-coincidences
  
• nbc-tv-series-the-irrational
  
• the-distinction-between-exploratory-and-confirmatory-research-cannot-be-important-per-se-because-it-implies-that-the-time-at-which-things-are-said-is-important
  
• venn-diagrams-with-4-or-more-circles
  
• statschat on new-euphemism-for-bogus-poll
• Kaiser Fung on what-about-safety

Econometrics

• Marc Bellamare on how do producers respond to insurance against output price risk
• Freakometrics on bias discrimination and fairness in insurance, collaborative insurance sustainability and network structure

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• real-estate-booms-are-behind-europes-productivity-divergence
  
• economic-roots-conflict-time-sexual-violence
  
• public-sentiment-towards-economic-sanctions-russia-ukraine-war
  
• wealth-and-its-distribution-germany-1895-2018
  
• surge-inflation-dispersion-euro-area-key-drivers-and-policy-responses
  
• making-eu-and-national-budgetary-frameworks-work-together
  
• fair-sustainable-and-prosperous-europe-needs-proper-navigation-tools
  
• role-of-energy-in-uk-inflation-and-productivity
  
• value-graduate-school-depends-your-gender-and-choice-degree
  
• economic-consequences-ukraine-war-new-ebook
  
• macroeconomic-consequences-reducing-international-profit-shifting
  
• political-economy-trade-protection-evidence-2020-us-presidential-election
  

US Inflation

 Inflation rose more than expected the other night in the USA.

Here are some views,

• Menzie Chinn
• Calculated Risk
• New Deal Democrat
• Noah Smith

what the 3rd year in a row of La Nina means

 Andrew King kindly tells us what to expect from yet another La Nina this summer.

A funeral

 Today I go to the funeral of a former friend Warwick Armstrong ( grandson of the Australian cricket captain of the 1920s).

Warwick or wombat as he was known was a lover of life. I got to know him as a colleague. He was a very good bond dealer. He was great company but liked to smoke cigarettes. He dies of a heart attack quite suddenly.

All of us will miss him.

It is always sad when a friend of yours dies more so when it is unexpected. 

I am a time of life when I am attending funerals more than weddings.

Jury Duty

 I was on jury duty last Thursday. Here are some reflections.

• I have been on jury duty 5 times now. The first time was at the Downing Centre but the last 4 times it was at the Parramatta district court.
• The bus timetables has changed since the last time I was on jury duty. I can no longer get the 521 but only the 545. 
• the bus route has changed because of works being done in Parramatta.
• Parramatta CBD is a dump and has not changed over the years.
• I was not needed so i go to go home early.

Around the Traps 9/9/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

• Nancy Baxter on cutting-covid-isolation-and-mask-mandates-will-mean-more-damage-to-business-and-health-in-the-long-run
• Paul Griffin on better-covid-vaccines-are-on-the-way-what-do-they-do-and-what-technology-might-we-see-in-future
• Ross Gittins on breaking-news-unions-play-central-role-for-good-or-ill, why-labour-shortages-can-be-good-for-and-the-economy
• renew economy on nsw-backs-pumped-hydro-projects-promising-60-hours-of-energy-storage, solar-records-tumble-as-spring-ushers-in-new-challenges-for-coal, bowen-admits-concerns-about-budget-blow-out-for-snowy-2-0-confirms-big-delay, aemos-westerman-says-energy-crisis-more-challenging-than-south-australia-blackout, researchers-pluck-green-hydrogen-from-the-air-without-any-need-for-liquid-water
• Richard Dennis on we-pay-billions-to-subsidise-australias-fossil-fuel-industry-this-makes-absolutely-no-economic-sense
• Peter Martin on australians-on-unemployment-benefits-are-set-for-two-record-paydays-but-its-a-sign-of-a-broken-system-long-overdue-for-a-fix
• Frank Jotzo on labors-climate-change-bill-is-set-to-become-law-but-3-important-measures-are-missing

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-forecasting-real-activity-using-cross-sectoral-stock-market-information
• John Holbo on who-thinks-who-is-a-threat-to-democracy-part-1
• noahopinion on american-workers-need-lots-and-lots-of-robots
• John Quiggin on republican-as-an-identity
• the conversable economist on us-unions-and-alternative-voices-for-labor
• Simon Kennedy on how-high-to-hike Thanks Brad
• Ian Millhiser on trump-fbi-mar-a-lago-aileen-cannon-judge-special-master-supreme-court-executive-privilege
• Dahlia Lithwick and Marrk Stern on trump-judge-aileen-cannon-court-reform
• Paul Chinoswky on intense-heat-waves-and-flooding-are-battering-electricity-and-water-systems-as-americas-aging-infrastructure-sags-under-the-pressure-of-climate-change
• Andrew Prokop on geoffrey-berman-book-trump-doj-prosecutions
• John Holbo on who-thinks-who-is-a-threat-to-a-democracy-part-2

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on the-hit-to-the-russian-economy-internally-assessed
• Ben Wellings on who-is-liz-truss-the-new-uk-prime-minister
• Jen Kirby on liz-truss-uk-prime-minister-conservative-leadership-brexit
• Comment is freed on the-economic-war thanks Brad
• Despina Alexiadou on liz-truss-these-two-daunting-challenges-sit-right-at-the-top-of-the-new-prime-ministers-in-tray
• noahopinion on dont-panic-europe-will-deal-with-its-gas-prices
• Tyler Cowen on the-kremlin-cuts-off-the-gas
• Mainly Macro on the-cost-of-living-crisis
• Matt Goodwin on is-britain-giving-up-on-brexit? Thanks Nick

Asia

• Mercedes Page on tragedy-xinjiang-tragedy-for-UN
• Syed Fazl-el-Haider on strange-case-missing-bentley-sinking-corruption-pakistan
• Gabriela Bernal on can-seoul-tokyo-mend-ties
• Joseph Joyce on china-and-the-debt-crisis

Wonk

• Hugh Piper on should-democracies-ever-lie-sort-maybe-not-really
• Jane Goodall on uncivil-wars-political-lies-are-far-more-dangerous-than-twitter-pile-ons
• Ian McKenzie on taxes-out-subsidies-in-australia-and-the-us-are-passing-major-climate-bills-without-taxing-carbon
• the conversable economist on higher-education-and-critical-thinking
• noahopinion on pinochets-economic-policy-is-vastly-overrated
• Sarah Hellewell on when-does-covid-become-long-covid-and-whats-happening-in-the-body-when-symptoms-persist-heres-what-weve-learnt-so-far
• Joshua Gans on economists-at-conferences Thanks Nick

General

• Jonti Horner on the-webb-telescope-has-released-its-very-first-exoplanet-image-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-it
• Roland Crocker on gamma-rays-from-a-dwarf-galaxy-solve-an-astronomical-puzzle

Climate

• Maurice Huegenin et al on the-southern-ocean-absorbs-more-heat-than-any-other-ocean-on-earth-and-the-impacts-will-be-felt-for-generations
• Moyhu on august-global-surface-templs-up-0016-from-july
• Damien Carrington on world-on-brink-five-climate-tipping-points-study-finds
• David Fickling on solar-industry-supply-chain-that-will-beat-climate-change-is-already-being-built Thanks Nick

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-end-of-the-pure-writer-pundit
  
• chunking-your-math-and-your-code-what-seems-thickerer-depends-on-where-youre-coming-from
  
• paul-campos-should-he-stick-to-sports-2
  
• if-you-could-invite-5-authors-dead-or-alive-to-a-dinner-party-who-would-they-be-and-why
  
• exploratory-and-confirmatory-data-analysis
  
• school-is-not-only-not-prison-it-is-the-opposite-of-prison
  
• you-should-always-always-have-a-naive-model-its-the-simplest-cleanest-most-intuitive-way-to-explain-whether-your-system-is-at-least-treading-water-and-if-it-is-thats-a-big-if-how-much
  
• statschat on showing-mps-expenses
• Kaiser Fung on the-interpretability-business

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on memories-of-ted-anderson
• Freakometrics on monty hall problem with thompson sampling

Dianne Coyle ( quirky and book reviews)

• exporting-us-capitalism
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• peak-globalisation-myth-part-3-how-global-supply-chains-are-unwinding
  
• peak-globalisation-myth-part-4-services-trade-did-not-peak
  
• o-ring-patterns-spatial-inequality-democratic-republic-congo
  
• trade-war-and-peace-how-impose-international-trade-sanctions
  
• stability-fund-euro-area
  
• health-and-economic-growth-reconciling-micro-and-macro-evidence
  
• trade-migration-and-brexit
  

Lowe should go

 The RBA, as expected, raised official cash rates by 50 basis points.

There have been calls for Lowe to resign and I think he should.

Three reasons.

1. his reputation is shot to bits
2. his promise of not raising rates until 2024 was really really stupid
3. he was far to slow in getting the cash rates back to neutral

The political scene is not going to form

 With a change of government we usually see a favourable rise in the polls. This has occurred. 

However what has not occurred as yet is on either side of the house are the Ministers who will be failures and on the Opposition side who will shine there as well.

To take two examples both on the ALP side. Gareth Evans was regarded as a failure as Attorney General but went on to be possibly the most successful Foreign Affairs minister sine Bert Evatt. Simon Crean absolutely shined in opposition and claimed quite a few scalps with ministers having to resign.

Amanda Rishworth might be a future failure but not as yet. McBain should have resigned because she did not read what she had to do as a minister. However that is about it.

On the Opposition side no-one is shining at all. Is this because they have little talent are struggling to come to terms with opposition or what.

Things will change and at some stage there will be a ministerial reshuffle but you would be guessing to say who will be a failure in government and who will shine in opposition.

Peak globalisation

 Richard Baldwin at vox wonk as I call it write 4 great columns on the above topic.

• peak-globalisation-myth-part-1
  
• peak-globalisation-myth-part-2-why-goods-trade-ratio-declined
  
• peak-globalisation-myth-part-3-how-global-supply-chains-are-unwinding
  
• peak-globalisation-myth-part-4-services-trade-did-not-peak
  

enjoy

Around the Traps 2/9/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Institutional economics on the-new-zealand-economy-and-monetary-policy
• Ross Gittins on jobs-summit-shut-up-those-playing-productivity-three-card-trick
• renew economy on pumped-hydro-the-power-of-gravity-and-moving-water, will-snowy-hydro-change-its-spots-after-sudden-departure-of-ceo, summit-consensus-everyone-wins-some-loses-some, crunch-time-for-grid-more-wind-solar-storage-urgently-needed-before-coal-exodus, crunch-time-for-grid-more-wind-solar-storage-urgently-needed-before-coal-exodus, solar-squeezes-out-coal-to-set-new-record-low-for-demand-on-national-grid, energy-price-caps-lifted-in-major-market-shift-to-accommodate-expensive-fossil-fuels
• croaking cassandra on rodger-finlay-revisited-2, finlay-the-rb-board-and-related-matters
• Anthony Forsyth on why-unions-and-small-business-want-industry-bargaining-from-the-jobs-summit-and-big-business-doesnt
• Gill Armstrong et al on 7-star-housing-is-a-step-towards-zero-carbon-but-theres-much-more-to-do-starting-with-existing-homes
• Catherine Bennett on should-states-cut-covid-isolation-from-7-to-5-days-heres-what-theyll-need-to-consider
• Rick Sarre on a-clear-victory-for-dogged-investigative-journalism-chris-dawson-found-guilty-of-murdering-wife-lynette-in-1982
• Greg Jericho on stage-3-tax-cuts-a-pile-of-garbage-and-everybody-knows-it
• Margaret Cook on the-yuck-factor-pushes-a-premier-towards-desalination-yet-again-but-history-suggests-recycled-waters-time-has-come
• Peter Varghese on why-engaging-asia-matters-even-more
• Bjorn Sturmberg on good-news-theres-a-clean-energy-gold-rush-under-way-well-need-it-to-tackle-energy-price-turbulence-and-coals-exodus

Northern America

• Very Serious on republicans-other-dobbs-problem thanks Brad
• Ian Millhiser on donald-trump-crimes-criminal-investigation-mar-a-lago-fbi-january-6-election-georgia-new-york
• Tim Harford on abortion-and-women-in-america-what-the-numbers-tell-us
• noahopinion on the-elite-overproduction-hypothesis, yes-your-house-is-wealth
• Barkes on will-inflation-reduction-act-ira-reduce-inflation
• Olivier Blanchard on inflation-and-unemployment-where-us-economy-heading-over-next-six-months thanks Brad
• George Croner on trump-declassified-sap-top-secret-documents-foia
• Mark Stern on florida-voter-fraud-election-police-desantis-entrapment
• the conversable economist on social-security-on-hold-until-2034, medicare-becoming-a-channel-for-private-sector-insurance
• Menzie Chinn on is-the-dollar-strong-or-likely-to-get-stronger, us-private-nonfarm-payroll-employment-what-does-the-revamped-adp-series-tell-us, guest-contribution-gauging-recessions-with-the-jobs-workers-gap
• Ben Jacobs on trump-doj-court-special-master-obstruction
• Dahlia Lithwick on facts-caught-donald-trump-documents
• Laurence Tribe on deconstructing-dobbs

Europe

• Ellen Ioannes on sanctions-impacting-russias-economy-putin
• renew economy on the-six-reckonings-of-europes-energy-crisis-gas-nuclear-war-and-inflation, gas-prices-and-nuclear-outages-put-european-grid-at-breaking-point
• stumbling and mumbling on in-praise-of-enough-is-enough
• Matt Goodwin on the-conservatives-are-imploding Thanks Nick
• Monica Attard on protests-biznez-and-a-failed-coup-journalist-monica-attard-on-covering-the-empire-gorbachev-allowed-to-collapse
• Mathew Sussex on a-consequential-but-ultimately-tragic-figure-last-leader-of-the-ussr-mikhail-gorbachev-dies-aged-91
• Marcus Colla on mikhail-gorbachev-last-revolutionary
• Anne Applebaum on gorbachev-legacy-russia
• Sofia Russi on uk-risks-repeating-past-policy-mistakes-continued-reliance-gas-pushing-millions-into-energy-poverty
• Frank Bass on nuclear-reactor-problems-france-show-need-diversified-mix-renewables

Asia

• David Fickling on china-s-hydro-power-cuts-could-herald-a-himalayan-scale-crisis-for-rivers-dams Thanks Brad
• Greg Earl on new-marcos-gets-down-business
• Guangyi Pan and Hao Yang on matter-of-national-destiny-chinas-energy-crisis-sees-the-worlds-top-emitter-investing-in-more-coal
• Jonathan Guyer on iraq-civil-war-muqtada-al-sadr
• Institutional economics on its-easy-when-youre-big-in-japan

Wonk

• Brad De Long on twenty-five-theses-on-the-world-historical-importance
• Menzie Chinn on when-is-a-recession-not-a-recession, gdp-gdo-gdp-hours-and-income, guest-contribution-global-recession-is-not-inevitable
• noahopinion on on-the-wisdom-of-the-historians
• the conversable economist on face-to-face-society-and-commercial-society robert-nozick-entitled-by-education
• renew economy on the-best-and-worst-of-climate-science-and-why-modelling-cant-keep-up-with-events
• Virginia Barbour on the-us-has-ruled-all-taxpayer-funded-research-must-be-free-to-read-whats-the-benefit-of-open-access
• Ben Scott on should-democracies-ever-lie
• Mainly Macro on how-populists-use-broadcasting-impartiality
• John Quiggin on the-end-of-the-bitcoin-monster
• Alex Tabarrok on the-price-of-power-and-the-power-of-prices
• Yanis Varoufakis on marginal-cost-pricing-for-electricity-disastrous-in-europe Thanks Nick

General

• Hannah Doctor-Loeb on jwst-cartwheel-galaxy-aurora-jupiter-galaxy-images
• the conversable economist on invention-of-gobbledygook
• Enzo Palumbo and Sarah McLean on yes-you-can-reheat-food-more-than-once-heres-why

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on the-importance-of-science-communication
• Damian Carrington on major-sea-level-rise-caused-by-melting-of-greenland-ice-cap-is-now-inevitable-27cm-climate
• noahopinion on decade-of-the-battery
• Alun Hubbard on whats-going-on-with-the-greenland-ice-sheet-its-losing-ice-faster-than-forecast-and-now-irreversibly-committed-to-at-least-10-inches-of-sea-level-rise
• Benji Jones on pakistan-flooding-monsoon-melting-glaciers-climate-change
• Andrew King on a-climate-scientist-on-the-planets-simultaneous-disasters-from-pakistans-horror-floods-to-europes-record-drought
• Bruce Robertson on carbon-capture-remains-risky-investment-achieving-decarbonisation, carbon-capture-has-a-long-history-of-failure

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• is-there-any-heuristic-we-might-use-to-identify-wholly-inappropriate-stats-and-flag-questionable-papers
  
• what-rule-did-louis-menand-use-to-select-what-went-into-book-on-u-s-cold-war-culture-of-1945-1965
  
• the-latest-scientific-fraud-story-as-is-so-often-the-case-people-had-been-warning-us-about-this-guy-for-a-long-time-but-the-people-in-charge-werent-listening
  
• why-deep-breathing-may-keep-us-calm
  
• i-dont-think-this-study-on-discriminatory-attitudes-is-useful
  
• update-on-estimates-of-effects-of-college-football-games-on-election-outcomes
  
• the-course-of-the-pandemic-whats-the-story-with-excess-deaths
  
• history-historians-and-causality
  
• he-tried-to-report-scientific-misconduct-how-did-it-go
  

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on Interpretability and explainability formalised of predictive models
• no hesitations on how-did-i-miss-this

Dianne Coyle ( quirky+ book reviews)

• books-at-a-conference
  
• insecurity-disenchantment-and-hope
  
• interest-rate-mysteries
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• noahopinion on book-review-danger-zone

Vox Wonk

• crypto-and-regulation-i-cant-live-you-i-cant-live-without-you
  
• firming-price-inflation
  
• socially-blindsided-social-foundations-pandemic-protection
  
• digital-platforms-and-job-search-experimental-evidence-mozambique
  
• iberian-electricity-market-intervention-does-not-work-europe
  
• famine-war-and-climate-change-middle-ages-russia-ukraine-war
  
• returns-active-labour-market-programmes-indigenous-populations
  
• comprehensive-integrated-climate-finance-framework-earth
  
• peak-globalisation-myth-part-1
  
• reducing-college-admissions-stress
  
• why-disclosure-natural-gas-origins-important-ukraine
  
• peak-globalisation-myth-part-2-why-goods-trade-ratio-declined