the new ALP Cabinet

 HERE is the new cabinet. Overall it is a highly talented bunch. Most but not all have dominated their previous ministerial counterparts. There is quite a lot of ministerial experience and some who do not have that  ( such as Jim Chalmers) are showing signs of over confidence and even arrogance.

There are always failures. My guess the favourite to fail is Don Farrell  in cabinet because of his lack of talent and Anne Aly in the outer ministry as the portfolio is way outside her area of expertise.

There will also some unexpected success in Opposition. Simon Crean was like a greyhound in Opposition after the landslide loss in 1996.

We shall see.

My theory on why Flu has made a comeback

 Australia has not had a flu season for two years.

We are now experiencing a large increase in flu. Why is this? The last time I visited my cardiologist we both agreed flu might not be much of a threat because of social distancing and people staying at home when they have a mere sniffle.

Well here in Eastwood there is no social distancing. When I insist on it at the supermarket or at the fruit and veg those very people swear at me. People no longer care about covid so why would they give a toss about flu.

It is my belief the authorities should have a new education program promoting social distancing.

The US Supreme court is mainly made up of partisan hacks

 I am forever grateful to Nick Gruen . His weekly e-mail is full of insightful articles via the links. Do yourself a favour and get it!!  This article os frorm that.

Read this and weep.

the-supreme-court-just-said-in-in-shinn-v-ramirez-that-evidence-of-innocence-is-not-enough

Around the Traps 27/5/22

 it is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Dennis Muller on i-dont-think-i-know-how-5-words-from-the-french-president-triggered-a-ruinous-run-on-morrisons-character
• Zareh Gazarian on victoria-turns-red-and-teal-as-liberals-are-all-but-vanquished-in-greater-melbourne
• Paul Williams on queensland-bucks-the-national-trend-again-and-this-spells-trouble-for-both-the-liberals-and-alp
• John Phillimore on swing-when-youre-winning-how-labor-won-big-in-western-australia
• Stephen Duckett on labor-has-a-huge-health-agenda-ahead-of-it-what-policies-should-we-expect
• Saul Eslake on a-new-dawn-over-stormy-seas-how-labor-should-manage-the-economy
• Mark Kenny on morrisons-great-electoral-bungle-leaves-the-liberals-decimated-and-heading-in-the-wrong-direction
• Sam Roggeveen on china-morrison-legacy-and-beyond
• Ben Scott on strategy-uncertain-times
• Ross Gittins on whos-in-government-matters-but-pollies-not-in-total-control, replacing-misbehaving-scomo-is-easy-act-for-albo-to-follow
• Mark the Ballot on did-we-have-polling-fail-in-2022
• David Walker on shorism-triumphs-in-australias-federal-election-sort-of
• renew economy on soaring-electricity-prices-start-to-bite-but-worst-delayed-until-after-election, australia-has-the-resources-to-be-a-renewable-energy-superpower-now-it-needs-a-plan, household-power-bills-jump-as-coalition-hands-energy-market-mess-to-labor, how-expensive-coal-and-gas-blew-up-the-queensland-electricity-market, morrisons-legacy-is-higher-power-prices-bowen-pins-price-spike-on-coalition
• John Quiggin on the-election-showed-australias-huge-appetite-for-stronger-climate-action-what-levers-can-the-new-government-pull
• Adrian Beaumont on why-labor-is-likely-to-win-a-house-of-representatives-majority-despite-a-33-primary-vote
• Patricia O'Brien on on-the-pacific-the-new-government-must-be-bold-and-go-big-heres-how-the-repair-work-could-begin
• Peter Martin on lifting-the-minimum-wage-is-anything-but-reckless-its-what-low-earners-need
• Mathew Hornsey et al on the-election-shows-the-conservative-culture-war-on-climate-change-could-be-nearing-its-end
• Dennis Muller on how-the-reality-distorting-machinery-of-the-federal-election-campaign-delivered-sub-par-journalism
• croaking cassandra on 2022-vs-2008, reading-the-mps
• Greg Jericho on anthony-albanese-has-some-tough-economic-problems-on-his-plate-here-are-seven-of-them
• Cain Polidano et al on super-co-contribution-has-cost-10-billion-to-help-the-wrong-australians-so-lets-scrap-it
• Michael Keating on memo-to-labor-you-need-more-tax-working-out-how-much-more-is-urgent
• Jenny Gordon on where-trade-policy
• the tally room on mapping the major party swing
• Jonathan Pickering on laggard-to-leader-labor-could-repair-australias-tattered-reputation-on-climate-change-if-it-gets-these-things-right
• Bruce Mountain on expect-more-power-price-hikes-a-1970s-style-energy-shock-is-on-the-cards

Northern America

• Nicole Narea on georgia-kemp-trump-perdue-governor-endorsement
• noahopinion on are-tech-workers-going-to-be-paid-much-less-now
• Barkes on what-is-worst-part-of-current-inflation
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-barry-jones-shinn-ramirez, supreme-court-uvalde-guns-violence-second-amendment-heller-scalia
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on ginni-and-clarence-thomas-steal-2024-election-coup
• The News on the-news-a-yet-unbroken-chain Thanks Brad
• Gina Schouten on why-were-polarized-part-1
• Menzie Chinn on some-time-series-data-on-mass-shootings
• Rick Sarre on arming-teachers-will-only-make-us-school-shootings-worse
• Peter Wehner on southern-baptist-convention-abuse-report
• Russell Moore on southern-baptist-abuse-apocalypse-russell-moore
• Sue Halpern on americas-redistricting-process-is-breaking-democracy
• new deal democrat on inflation-reversals-as-unique-markers
• Tyler Cowen on how-much-are-republicans-and-democrats-polarized-really
• the conversable economist on the-shape-of-the-federal-budget
• Christopher Poliquin onafter-mass-shootings-like-uvalde-national-gun-control-fails-but-states-often-loosen-gun-laws
• Robert Spitzer on how-the-nra-evolved-from-backing-a-1934-ban-on-machine-guns-to-blocking-nearly-all-firearm-restrictions-today
• Nicole Narea et al on uvalde-mass-shooting-gun-violence-control
• Justin Peters on uvalde-shooting-sandy-hook-politicize-tragedy
• sandwichman on and-babies
• Geoffrey Skelley et al on support-for-gun-control-will-likely-rise-after-uvalde-but-history-suggests-it-will-fade

Europe

• renew economy on offshore-wind-farm-balancing-german-power-grid-in-green-energy-milestone
• Mainly Macro on rapidly-reducing-carbon-usage-and-deficit-obsession-don't-mix
• Andreas Kluth on putin-is-losing-the-war-but-he-will-escalate-to-show-he-s-still-in-charge Thanks Brad
• Tony Ward on military-history-is-repeating-for-russia-under-putins-regime-of-thieves
• Melissa Tyler on ukraine-view-warsaw

Asia

• Rodger Shanahan on lebanon-celebrating-small-change
• Angela Zhang on china-regulatory-crackdown-tech-firms-golden-share-ownership-stake Thanks Brad
• Patrick Kaiku on png-and-solomon-islands-china-security-agreement
• noahopinion on japans-living-standards-are-too-low, ideas-to-boost-japanese-growth-part1, the-china-evac
• Timothy McLoughlin on john-lee-hong-kong-2022-chief-executive-election
• Phillip Sitowicki on black-ships-quad-and-space
• Kashish Shah on indias-renewable-energy-journey-two-steps-forward-one-step-back

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on cross-country-core-cpi-trends
• Tim Harford on the-fun-way-to-predict-the-unpredictable
• John Quiggin on russia-and-the-end-of-nuclear-power
• value added on that-70s-show thanks Brad
• Barkes on expanding-brics
• Uneasy Money on hayek-and-the-lucas-critique
• stumbling and mumbling on capitalisms-self-preservation-society
• Magda Teter on rehearsal-for-genocide-pogroms
• economic history research on the-last-crusade Thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on competition-via-variety

General

• stumbling and mumbling on stealing-a-living
• Sascha Morrell on great-expectations-by-charles-dickens-class-prejudices-the-convict-stain-and-a-corpse-bride

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on world-atmospheric-co2
• Andrew Freedman on climate-change-india-pakistan-heat-wave
• Dietma Muller et al on how-plate-tectonics-mountains-and-deep-sea-sediments-have-maintained-earths-goldilocks-climate
• Daniel Merino and Gemma Ware on india-and-pakistans-heatwave-is-a-sign-of-worse-to-come-podcast
• James Empty blog on how cold was the LGM
• skeptical science on glimmer-of-hope

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• film-dialogue-from-2000-screenplays-broken-down-by-gender-and-age
  
• what-happen-to-that-los-angeles-tunnel-that-axios-was-saying-was-coming-soon-in-2018
  
• yelp-reviews-for-scientists-or-pundits
  
• stylized-facts-in-the-social-sciences
  
• the-failure-of-null-hypothesis-significance-testing-when-studying-incremental-changes-and-what-to-do-about-it
  
• why-not-look-at-y
  
• public-opinion-isnt-always-as-polarized-as-you-think-gmo-food-edition
  
• the-worst-of-both-worlds-a-comparative-analysis-of-errors-in-learning-from-data-in-psychology-and-machine-learning
  
• more-implausible-numbers-from-columbia-universitys-u-s-news-ranking
  
• statschat on briefly
• Kaiser Fung on are-81-percent-of-elon-musks-twitter-followers-fake

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• all-the-cs-but-how-many-gs
  
• what-information-to-whom-and-do-they-want-it
  
• Tyler Cowen on 21st-century-monetary-policy

Vox Wonk

• impact-institutions-innovation
  
• russian-invasion-tests-eu-economic-resilience
  
• new-perspective-chinese-agricultural-development
  
• energy-sanctions-igm-forum-survey
  
• rising-cereal-prices-and-political-violence-croplands-africa
  
• education-innovation-gap
  
• consumption-effects-mortgage-payment-holidays-during-covid-19
  
• education-innovation-gap
  
• monopsony-makes-firms-not-only-small-also-unproductive
  
• effects-embargo-russian-gas
  
• reckoning-growing-demand-long-term-care
  
• empirical-analysis-budgetary-follow-eu
  
• foreign-work-permits-outrun-human-smugglers
  
• eu-gas-purchasing-cartel-framework
  
• war-ukraine-world-food-prices-and-conflict-africa
  

Why was Andrew Charlton successful and Kristina Kenneally unsuccessful

 At the election the ALP parachuted two people into ALP electorates.

Andrew Charlton won the seat of Parramatta with a swing to him. Kristina Kenneally lost the very safe seat of Fowler

Some may argue there was a media attack on Kenneally whereas Charlton was ignored. however if the media attacks in 'Teal 'electorates were unsuccessful then why they they succeed in Fowler. We can write this off.

Some have said their different characters affected voters with Charlton more likable. As this is just too related to above I think we can write this off as well.

Others have said the reasons for the parachuting were different. Kenneally was already in politics and was relegated to no. s in the senate for the ALP and thus unlikely to be in parliament after the election. Allied to this a local vietnamese born solicitor was bypassed. She was highly regarded  and had community links.

Andrew Charlton on the other hand di not elbow a local candidate out of the way and also was a highly successful businessman. He was in charge of Accenture at the time. I do like this but have no data to back this up.

The ALP will need to be very thoughtful about parachuting any 'star' candidates into safe seats in the future. If the candidates are good enough then surely they would win a pre-selection ballot.

Dutton has a hard road to walk

 It seems as Peter Dutton will be the new Opposition leader.

He has to come to terms with the fact the-election-shows-the-conservative-culture-war-on-climate-change-could-be-nearing-its-end.

He would need a road to Damascus conversion and even then he would still find it hard to gain credibility. I cannot state how important this is to the liberal party. If Dutton cannot gain credibility on climate change he will not get any of the 'teal' seats back. If he does not win back these seats the Liberals will not win back government.

Too many people from the Liberal side think he will be an effective Opposition leader because he is aggressive. They cite Tony Abbott as an example. Wait on. Abbott only gained success when the ALP started to fight among themselves. Just remember Abbott was never popular. The Liberals won despite him not because of him.

Being aggressive in parliament can be counter productive. More so when so many women have been elected. It also leads to many snafus which Dutton made as a minister.

He has not shown any strategic nous at all and like a lot of people ( like Albo) had a poor campaign.

Opposition leaders usually get rolled after a change of government. My guess is this will occur to Dutton.

Lessons from the election

 Okay let me say it again I was wrong. Climate change was THE big issue. clearly voters thought the Liberals were not to be trusted on climate policy ( because of the National party) and the ALP were not fair dinkum. They knew both the Teals and the Greens were. Let's face it the Greens have mad policies all over the place so it only makes sense to vote greens to ensure the ALP wakes up.

The Liberals are in a terrible bind. Having Peter Dutton as leader is bad enough as he is electoral poison but does anyone imagine he can convince teal voters to come back to the Liberals because they support polices to avoid climate change or  to set up a federal ICAC. It is highly pertinent to point out the Teals almost unanimously said a vote for the Liberals was a vote for Joyce and of course Canavan helped them enormously as well. Indeed Joyce and Canavan aped Bob Brown of the last election. At least he learned his lesson and shut up after the election was over.

There are arguments in some quarters to say Dutton will be a good opposition leader as he is aggressive like Abbott. Hang on Abbott was going now where until the ALP became disunited. Indeed those 'brilliant strategist' from the NSW right though they could still win when the ALP was in civil war because Abbott was Opposition leader.

Let us assume the ALP has learned their lesson. Its front bench is clearly superior to the LNP and has been for some time. Treasury has learned lessons from the 70s as well. Thus I do not expect any repeat of Whitlam.

Climate change will only grow as an issue in three years time as more and more evidence accumulates. This does bode well for the LNP. They will become the party for luddites if they are not careful. This will not be good for democracy.

The ALP has to do two things to my mind. First be more imaginative with regard to climate change. what about adopting a NED and advocate a price on carbon for the next election.

Secondly how will they do any budget repair? They said nothing on this in the campaign. Indeed their 'savings' measures were a joke. Treasury would undoubtedly want to  be more aggressive budget repair after the CPI rose so high (and will go even higher.)

We live interesting times

Marking my beliefs to market

 I do like the way Brad De Long marks his beliefs to market every so often. Thus the election proves the perfect time to mark mine.

• The election campaign would be too long to help the Liberals.  I was correct. Essentially this election was like 2013 in that the polls rarely changed at all.
• Morrison is not a great campaigner.  I was correct. He did not gain any votes in the campaign.
• Albo would get a rails run by journos in the campaign and they would be much harder on Morrison. I was wrong. They went very hard on Albo. Sometimes they were embarrassing. Morrison rarely answered questions which in the end exacerbated concerns about him. 
• Parachuting Charlton and Kenneally into Parramatta and fowler were two different propositions. Charlton was a high quality candidate whilst Kenneally vastly over-rated.  Lets say I was mostly right.
• News corp , Sky after dark ( and 2GB in sydanee) would get a black eye from their blatant biased coverage.  I was right on this.
• Climate change would not be the most important policy of the campaign. I was wrong big time on this. The climate wars are over. I hope the ALP understands this. They have won but others have gained.

Around the Traps 20/5/22

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Ausssie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• tallyroom on which seats swing the most
• Antony Green on tracking the early vote
• renew economy on direct-switch-from-coal-to-renewables-cheaper-than-going-over-gas-bridge, australian-carbon-market-splits-as-buyers-pay-more-for-high-integrity-units, australian-wind-market-takes-off-again-as-projects-and-turbines-get-bigger, gas-led-recovery-gas-generators-switch-to-dirty-diesel-as-prices-soar, australian-researchers-harvest-night-time-solar-to-provide-power-in-the-dark, how-the-coalitions-deflated-electricity-scare-campaign-was-probably-confected
• Ross Gittins on inflation-workers-being-unreasonable-or-bosses-on-the-make, modern-politics-goads-us-to-be-greedy-and-forget-the-needy
• Armarium Interreta on australian-polling-hasnt-been-getting-worse-over-time
• Greg Jericho on five-housing-policies-that-wouldnt-drive-up-prices-in-australia, australian-wages-in-real-terms-are-essentially-no-different-from-where-they-were-in-2013
• Stephen Hamilton on super-for-housing-or-the-government-as-a-co-owner-how-liberal-and-labor-home-buyer-schemes-compare
• Jada Fraser on aukus-more-meets-eye
• Croaking Cassandra on what-if-2, cavalier-policy-and-disconcerting-projections
• Sue Richardson on are-real-wages-falling-heres-the-evidence
• Peter Martin on elections-used-to-be-about-costings-heres-whats-changed
• Peter Dean on what-went-wrong-how-morrison-lost-control-khaki-election
• Andrew Podger on a-lazy-cost-saving-measure-the-coalitions-efficiency-dividend-hike-may-mean-longer-wait-times-and-reduced-services
• Rodney Tiffen on the-media-has-reached-peak-passivity-in-the-lead-up-to-the-2022-election
• Jim Stanford on proof-positive-real-wages-are-shrinking-wednesdays-figures-put-it-beyond-doubt
• Lucas Cernasak and Sussan Laurance on climate-change-is-killing-trees-in-queenslands-tropical-rainforests
• John Hawkins on at-3-9-australias-unemployment-rate-now-officially-begins-with-3-whats-next
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-2022-seat-poll-sludgefest
• Johanna Bowyer on power-bills-australia-take-hit-surging-global-fossil-fuel-prices

Northern America

• Brad De Long on would-somebody-please-tell-me-what
• Peter Sinclair on texans-under-power-stress-but-grid-ignores-efficiency
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-ted-cruz-fec-bribery-campaign-finance-first-amendment-john-roberts-elena-kagan
• noahopinion on greedflation-gouging-and-price-controls, why-i-love-the-new-labor-movement, it-looks-like-were-headed-for-a-soft-landing
• fullstack economics on joe-biden-has-a-smart-plan-to-tackle-the-housing-shortage Thanks Brad
• the message box on what-the-media-keeps-getting-wrong-about-trumpism thanks Brad
• Barkely Rosser on what-is-worst-part-of-current-inflation
• Menzie Chinn on archives/2022/05/how-much-did-euro-area-inflation-accelerate-relative-to-the-us
• Fabiola Cineas on replacement-theory-white-supremacist-violence
• Mary Harris on buffalo-shooting-wesley-lowery-media-great-replacement-theory
• Sherrilyn Ifill on stealing-the-crown-jewels-ifill-roe
• Tyler Cowen on the-new-covid-equilibrium, lets-eliminate-the-covid-test-entry-requirement-for-the-u-s
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-abortion-roe-california-new-york-colorado
• the conversable economist on designing-tax-incentives-for-charitable-giving
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-do-foreign-yield-curves-help-predict-u-s-recessions

Europe

• Jen Kirby on finland-sweden-nato-membership-russia-ukraine-war, mariupol-evacuation-ukraine-russia
• Mainly Macro on when-did-things-go-wrong-2010-or-1979
• Christina Thornell on germany-eu-natural-gas-russia-dependency
• Charles Kupchan on ukraine-war-russia-putin-end
• Masha Gessen on inside-putins-propaganda-machine
• Ronald Suny on why-turkey-isnt-on-board-with-finland-sweden-joining-nato-and-why-that-matters
• Camille Nashert on new-plan-aims-almost-double-solar-capacity-europe-2030

Asia

• Adele Webb on what-marcos-jr-presidency-philippines-means-geopolitics
• Annoulak Kittikhoun on diplomacy-indispensable-manage-mekong
• Menzie Chinn on china-economic-sitrep, china-gdp-forecast-revision
• Priya Pillai on philippines-justice-and-accountability-post-elections
• Khang Vu on lies-damn-lies-and-north-korea-s-covid-statistics

Wonk

• Tim Harford on the-intangible-economy-is-more-important-than-you-think
• noahopinion on what-kind-of-financial-asset-is-bitcoin
• Nick Gruen on the-ultimate-sanction, how-economics-found-science-and-lost-its-subject-matter
• Angus Houston and Marc Grossman on no-gas-lessons-poland-and-bulgaria-quad
• coppolla comment on the-great-unemployment-fudge
• IEEFA on ieefa-experts-trace-fallout-russias-invasion-ukraine-global-liquefied-natural-gas-markets
• Katherine Lawlor and Mason Clark on russian-annexation-occupied-ukraine-putin Thanks Nick

General

• Dereck Ward-Thompson on how-we-captured-first-image-of-the-supermassive-black-hole-at-centre-of-the-milky-way

Climate

• Moyhu on giss-april-global-temperature-down-by-0.23-in-march
• Skeptical Science on climate-transformative-optimism
• Simon Josey and Bablu Singha on subpolar atlantic ocean mixed layer heat content

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• causal-is-what-we-say-when-we-dont-know-what-were-doing
  
• a-much-bigger-problem-is-the-tension-between-the-difficulty-of-statistics-and-the-demand-for-it-to-be-simple-and-readily-available
• do-celebrated-scientists-have-the-free-will-to-admit-they-are-wrong-not-always
  
• i-had-big-plans-for-that-four-fifths-of-a-penny-false-precision-and-fraud
  
• doing-mister-p-with-multiple-outcomes
  
• am-i-the-cookie
  
• abortion-attitudes-in-oklahoma
  
• Kaiser Fung on reading-statistical-analytics-illustrated , the-musk-sampling-plan-thought-through

Econometrics

• James Mackinnon on cluster robust inference Thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on talking-econometrics

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• the-end-of-empire-in-asia
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• algorithmic-stablecoins-and-devaluation-risk
  
• analysing-cost-push-inflation-using-world-input-output-tables
  
• central-bank-view-reforming-europe-s-fiscal-framework
  
• american-treasure-and-decline-spain
  
• assortative-mating-and-wealth-inequality-debate
  
• long-run-impacts-court-ordered-desegregation
  
• surprising-benefits-voting-change
  
• political-power-and-market-power-evidence-mergers
  
• sanctions-and-exchange-rate
  
• manager-pay-size-matters-and-so-does-monopoly
  
• identifying-monetary-policy-shocks
  
• understanding-unemployment-and-welfare-effects-china-shock
  
• manager-pay-size-matters-and-so-does-monopoly
  
• identifying-monetary-policy-shocks
  
• using-historical-newspaper-data-deal-measurement-error
  
• long-run-effects-climate-change-corporate-sector
  
• remote-wages-globalised-labour-market
  
• measuring-robot-quality
  
• russia-s-e-commerce-trade-aftermath-2022-invasion
  

Still no wage breakout

 The WPI came out yesterday. When we are at full employment the annual increase was a puny 2.4%. Given inflation is at 5.1% and climbing real wages are falling.

See HERE HERE and HERE

The RBA has egg all over its face and not for the first time on this very important topic. Me thinks it is because they have completely discounted the regulatory environment. THE ALP under Gillard further de-regulated the labour market rather than re-regulating it. This has led to further falls in union membership. You just aint going to get decent wage increases without increases in union membership.

Meanwhile Steve Kates, Judith Sloan and various Liberal politicians are still waiting like godot for that inevitable wages break out.  No they never mark their beliefs to market.

Given the election is in Saturday here are some interesting articles

• morrison-is-hoping-for-an-election-surprise-but-uncommitted-voters-rarely-turn-things-around-in-the-final-week
  
• modelling-2020-election-part-ii
  
• modelling-2022-election-closer-than-we-first-thought
  
• rolling-national-poll-roundup-2022
  

We are being let down by journalists.

 What we are seeing now is pollical gossip sexed up as news by journalists. This is not NEW

How many times have I read about seat polls saying such and such. Seat polls are CRAP. People from any party leak so called internal party polling on seats which almost always complete and utter lies. Think about it why would a party conduct a seat poll which we know are crap and very expensive when it does them no good. Nah far easier to lie to journos about so called polls showing their party doing so well.

Parties do polls. They involve, usually, conducting polls into various marginal seats and compare those results to the public polls. They total the results , perhaps 500 in each electorate and then do the rest.

Why do journos write this rubbish? Possibly because they have little else to write about and they need to show they are doing something anything.

One more beef. If someone is a great campaigner then they consistently win more votes for their party in a campaign. I have yet to see this. Hawke, Howard et al never did this consistently. no-one can really say anything about the last campaign as there was a massive polling failure. 

There is NO fiscal responsibility

 Neither party has adopted a fiscal responsible position.

Australia is at full employment. By any measure this is when budget repair should be going on BUT no party has any plan to reduce the structural deficit. The improvement in the deficit has purely come frrom improvements in the cyclical deficit because we are now at full employment ( because of very low immigration.)

This is now the time to take aggressive action on the structural deficit as it does improve the growth rate for the economy. It is the public sector making room for the private sector as it should and as Keynes recommended. It is why Keynesian economics is far tougher than classical economics in good times. classical economics only desires a balanced budget. ( this is why it is expansionary in good times and contractionary in bad times. it is pro-cyclical!)

Politically I see no way for the current government to change. The only was for the ALP to change would be to sat the cupboard is bare like Abbott did way back in 2013. It was a lie then and it would be a lie now because of PEFO.

In a related matter I despair at the socalled housing policies. housing prices need to fall over an extended period of time otherwise you get a recession. NO party will own up to this at all.

Polling Accuracy

 Okay we are now in to the final week of the campaign.

Right on queue we get this great article on australian-polling-hasnt-been-getting-worse-over-time.

The blog has gone to my must read list.

I am a boof head I should have included THIS as well.

A little girl puts a coin into a hat and look what happens

 okay I am very late on this but it is fantastic

Around the Traps 13/5/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Esperanza Vera--Toscano and roger Wilkins on poverty-isnt-a-temporary-experience-in-australia-we-need-urgent-policy-tackling-persistent-disadvantage
• Dennis Muller on as-news-corp-goes-rogue-on-election-coverage-what-price-will-australian-democracy-pay
• Mateo Slepak-Sewillo on time-right-australia-forge-stronger-ties-europe
• Ross Gittins on inflation-bad-for-your-budget-good-for-the-governments, in-this-election-one-critical-issue-stands-above-all-others, cutting-real-wages-will-help-inflation-but-will-weaken-the-economy
• renew economy on not-aligned-to-paris-agl-concedes-coal-exit-plans-dont-meet-climate-goals, why-24-7-clean-power-is-a-lot-better-than-100-renewables, kurri-kurri-gas-folly-cost-blowout-limited-operation-not-hydrogen-ready, sa-renewables-surge-bringing-down-energy-prices-but-consumers-miss-out,aemo-identifies-new-system-strength-shortfalls-with-early-coal-exit, cost-of-living-canary-falls-off-its-perch-in-electricity-markets
• Croaking Cassandra on what-if
• Mark the Ballot on poll-update-monday-may-9
• Thomas the Think Engine on what-is-going-to-happen-to-interest-rates-what-predictions-should-you-trust
• Murray Goot on over-the-last-30-years-a-fifth-of-polls-have-called-the-wrong-winner-here-are-3-things-poll-watchers-need-to-understand
• Peter Martin on stand-by-for-the-oddly-designed-stage-3-tax-cut-that-will-send-middle-earners-backwards-and-give-high-earners-thousands
• Greg Jericho on it-shouldnt-be-such-a-shock-that-anthony-albanese-believes-the-minimum-wage-should-rise-with-inflation
• Stephen Healy and Abby Lopes on climate-change-hits-low-income-earners-harder-and-poor-housing-in-hotter-cities-is-a-disastrous-combination
• Bruce Mountain on electricity-prices-are-spiking-ten-times-as-much-as-normal-here-are-some-educated-guesses-as-to-why
• Greg Earl on bell-teals-big-parties-australia-s-election
• John Quiggin on the-case-for-higher-wages
  
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-ghosts-of-1996-and-2007
• Adam Morton on living-costs-in-outer-suburbs-would-be-slashed-under-plan-to-electrify-everything-analysis-finds
• Jodie Rummer and Scott Heron on what-the-next-australian-government-must-do-to-save-the-great-barrier-reef

Northern America

• Erin Hurley on understanding-rise-trump-and-how-it-might-happen-again
• noahopinion on five-books-to-understand-us-unrest, suddenly-startups-are-having-trouble-raising-money-why, no-america-is-not-collapsing, the-fed-isnt-going-to-bail-out-your-stocks-this-time
• newdeal democrat on the-impact-of-supply-constraints-on-the-us-economy-in-3-easy-graphs
• renew economy on wind-and-solar-beat-nuclear-and-coal-in-us-for-first-time-in-april
• Menzie Chinn on inflation-adjusted-wages-since-the-pandemic
• lawyers guns and money on the-ballad-of-kathleen-parker Thanks Brad
• Li Zhou on senate-abortion-vote-womens-health-protection-act
• Fintan O'Toole on our-hypocrisy-on-war-crimes
• David Owen on the-biggest-potential-water-disaster-in-the-united-states
• Nathaniel Rakich on trumps-candidate-lost-in-nebraska-but-trump-is-still-winning-most-of-his-primaries
• Bred De Long on bond-market-medium-term-inflation-currently-on-target
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-05
• the conversable economist on why-didnt-the-us-adopt-the-metric-system-long-ago

Europe

• Allen Ioannes on russian-oil-embargo-european-union-concerns
• Peter McLoughlin on northern-ireland-election-despite-sinn-feins-historic-win-over-unionists-things-may-not-be-as-they-seem
• Nikola Mikovoc on Turkeys-leverage-over-Russia-in-Syria-and-beyond
• Fred Kaplan on putin-cant-even-pretend-hes-winning-in-ukraine
• stumbling and mumbling on house-prices-who-wins-who-loses
• Jen Kirby on ukraine-war-moldova-transnistria-russia-spillover
• Barry Eichengreen on shaping-marshall-plan-for-ukraine Thanks Brad
• Anne Applebaum on putin-speech-ukraine-invasion-soviet-union
• Zack Beuachamp on russia-donbas-offensive-may-slow-flailing

Asia

• Prabhat Jawla on iran-applies-its-own-maximum-pressure-nuclear-talks
• Ellen Ioannes on hong-kong-chief-executive-john-lee-restrictions
• Sam Roggeveen on chinese-bases-pacific-reality-check
• noahopinion on can-the-philippines-sustain-its-growth
• Evan Freidin on saudi-arabia-and-china-blossoming-friendship
• Jonathan Guyer on shireen-abu-akleh-palestinian-journalist-killed-israel
• Niro Kandasamy on the-sri-lankan-state-is-using-violence-to-unleash-fury-on-its-citizens-as-its-political-and-economic-crisis-deepens

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on us-euro-area-gdp-performance-pre-post-pandemic, guesstimating-the-us-euro-area-core-inflation-differential-in-april
• Nick Gruen on how-economics-forgot-its-subject-matter
• Mainly Macro on inflation-and-potential-recession-in-4-major-economies
• the conversable economist on spring-2022-journal-of-economic-perspectives-available-online
• Dan Rodrik on after-hyperglobalization-national-interests-open-economy thanks Brad
• Tyler Cowen on how-big-a-deal-would-a-nuclear-explosion-be
• Aaron McNicholas on china-and-west-it-s-about-understanding-each-other

General

• Tim Harford on the-lesson-humble-sea-urchins-teach-us-about-resilience
• Treasure Macguire on can-taking-vitamins-and-supplements-help-you-recover-from-covid

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on the-science-society-interface

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• how-fake-science-is-infiltrating-scientific-journals
  
• how-should-journals-handle-submissions-of-non-reproducible-research
  
• ben-lerner-is-a-reboot-of-jonathan-franzen-and-thats-a-good-thing
  
• public-opinion-on-abortion-david-weakliems-summary-of-the-polls
  
• statretro-twitter-feed
  
• jamaican-me-crazy-one-more-time
  
• provisional-draft-of-the-neurips-code-of-ethics
  
• we-have-really-everything-in-common-with-machine-learning-nowadays-except-of-course-language
  
• Kaiser Fung on more-case-counting-puzzles

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• swimming-against-the-tide
  
• uk-economic-performance-who-to-blame-for-what
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• how-ensure-european-fiscal-rules-meet-investment
  
• developing-world-agricultural-and-energy-importers-hit-hardest-ukraine-war-economic-fallout
  
• potential-economic-effects-allied-trade-embargo-russia
• european-recessions-and-native-american-conflict
  
• getting-more-out-policing-us
  
• learning-about-inflation-expectations-data
  
• european-recessions-and-native-american-conflict
  
• campaign-finance-rules-and-their-effects-election-outcomes
  
• matching-between-workers-and-jobs-explains-productivity-differentials-across-firms
  
• explaining-disappointing-trade-effects-regional-trade-agreements
  
• intergenerational-costs-allocating-refugees-randomly
  
• taxes-and-labour-mobility-why-lowering-income-tax-rates-might-not-be-winning-strategy
  
• unaccounted-long-term-health-cost-wars-wartime-children
  
• effect-china-s-two-child-policy-household-savings
  
• shocks-international-trade-and-diversification
  
• implications-russia-s-invasion-ukraine-its-value-chains
  
• rank-effects-education
  
• skill-biased-production-makes-high-skill-workers-more-efficient-rich-countries
  
• seizures-foreign-exchange-reserves-will-not-weaken-dollar-s-role-dominant-reserve-currency
  

Poll Roundup.

 The ubiquitous Kevin Bonham has his poll round up and it is essential reading if only to learn what MRP is 

Healthy again

 A few weeks ago I visited my cardiologist. Good news my heart is as good as it was before my mild heart attack. One interesting thing was my blood pressure. Previously it was excellent. It is always done before giving blood thus my confidence.  It went haywire after the attack BUT it is now back at excellent.

Now I have to do more exercise, lose some weight and generally enjoy life.

what the 'teal' independents really mean

 There has been a lot of discussion about the 'teal' independents. In essence they are campaigning on more action on climate change and getting a federal ICAC up and running.

Some people have complained if they are successful then a number of moderate liberals wil lose their seats and Peter Dutton will end up leader.

This is completely wrong.

Firstly IF the teal independents are successful then they will show the Liberal party has to some extent lost their small l liberals supporters. They have already lost Warringah and no-one has learned any lessons from this. Whilst Big C conservatives have a loud voice they lose votes. How a big C conservative can vote against climate change or government governance merely shows us the Big C conservative are not really conservative at all.

Secondly no person in their right mind would elect Peter Dutton leader. He is a distinct electoral liability and his utterances as yet have not helped the government at all.

the correlation between CO2 and temperature

 Tamino  from open mind gives us not one but two articles on the above topic.

Here they are.

correlation-between-co2-and-temperature

correlation-between-co2-climate-forcing-and-temperature

Bob Seger

 About 40 years ago it was a tossup who was better live Bob Seger or the Boss.

Here he is doing his best song Brave Strangers

Around the Traps 6/5/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on the-housing-affordability-that-will-matter
• Mark the Ballot on are-polls-biased, are-polls-starting-to-smell-little-off
• Amarium Intereta on federal-reversion-or-realignment-2022
• Samantha Hepburn on no-mr-morrison-the-safeguard-mechanism-is-not-a-sneaky-carbon-tax
• Ross Gittins on the-cost-of-living-is-soaring-but-raising-interest-rates-wont-help, election-bottom-line-taxes-will-be-going-up-not-down
• Hugh Saddler on labor-says-power-prices-are-going-up-the-coalition-says-they-arent-whos-right
• Peter Newman on beyond-electric-cars-how-electrifying-trucks-buses-tractors-and-scooters-will-help-tackle-climate-change
• Judith Brett on how-the-liberals-lost-the-moral-middle-class-and-now-the-teal-independents-may-well-cash-in
• Peter Martin on why-the-rba-should-go-easy-on-interest-rate-hikes-inflation-may-already-be-retreating-and-going-too-hard-risks-a-recession
• Issac Gross on rba-governor-philip-lowe-is-hiking-interest-rates-worst-case-itll-mean-an-extra-600-per-month-on-a-500-000-mortgage
• Michael Keating on the-coalition-is-guaranteeing-essential-services-and-lower-tax-we-cant-have-both
• Euan Ritchie et al on australias-next-government-must-tackle-our-collapsing-ecosystems-and-extinction-crisis
• Greg Jericho on more-interest-rate-hikes-are-coming-and-housing-affordability-is-about-to-get-crunched
• John Freebairn on who-really-wins-and-loses-from-first-homebuyer-schemes-what-you-need-to-know-as-a-buyer-owner-or-renter
• Bill Hare on scorched-dystopia-or-liveable-planet-heres-where-the-climate-policies-of-our-political-hopefuls-will-take-us
• renew economy on think-tank-calls-for-complete-overhaul-of-troubled-emissions-reduction-fund,network-companies-seek-non-network-solutions-to-peak-demand-problems

North America

• new deal democrat on q1-gdp-negative-but-more-importantly-two-of-three-long-leading-indicators-have-deteriorated
• Brad De Long on larry-summers-was-right
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-boston-flagpole-christian-shurtleff-stephen-breyer-religion-first-amendment, supreme-court-roe-wade-abortion-samuel-alito-overruled-draft-politico, supreme-court-roe-abortion-rights, supreme-court-abortion-alito-dobbs-roe-wade-voting-race
• noahopinion on does-student-loan-forgiveness-make-economic-sense, whats-your-plan-for-a-world-of-8%-interest-rates
• Uneasy Money on summer-2008-redux
• Emma Long on us-supreme-court-poised-to-overturn-abortion-law-what-the-leaked-opinion-says-and-what-happens-next
• Dahlia Lithwick on roe-falling-supreme-court-legitimacy-lost
• Adam Serwer on alito-leaked-roe-opinion-abortion-supreme-court-civil-rights
• Eric Kramer on what-effect-will-over-ruling-roe-have-on-public-opinion-and-the-mid-term-elections
• Jill Lepore on why-there-are-no-women-in-the-constitution
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-fed-needs-at-least-four-more-50-basis-point-rate-increases-in-2022-to-get-back-on-track
• the conversable economist on the-pandemic-response-policy-lessons
• the time of monsters on unsettled-laws
• Dennis Warmsted and Seth Feaster on a-milestone-month-for-the-renewable-transition
• Zack Beauchamp on supreme-court-legitimacy-crisis-abortion-roe
• America america on liars-for-a-lifetime

Europe

• renew economy on germany-drops-renewables-surcharge-household-bills-to-fall-by-e300
• Natasha Ishak on russias-natural-gas-exports-india-china-ukraine
• David Brewster on transnistria-next-front-ukraine-war
• Parliamentary library on NATO_options_in_Ukraine
• war on the rocks on start-with-the-political-explaining-russias-bungled-invasion-of-ukraine Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on how-austerity-created-brexit-and-the political-and- economic -decline-of-the-UK
• Daniel Woker on european-neutrality-dying-out
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-surprising-drop-in-french-economic-activity

Asia

• Natasha Ishak on sri-lanka-50-billion-debt-protests-loan-default-china-india-imf
• Khng Vu on north-korea-military-parades-come-people-s-wellbeing
• noahopinion on does-china-have-hidden-reservoirs-of-growth-potential
• renew economy on what-do-chinas-gigantic-wind-and-solar-bases-mean-for-its-climate-goals
• Vibhuti Garg on indias-power-shortage-crisis-is-an-opportunity-to-spur-the-clean-energy-transition

Wonk

• noahopinion on imports-do-not-subtract-from-gdp
• the conversable economist on universal-schooling-in-developing-countries, some-economics-of-dominant-currencies
• Jeffrey Frankel on western-energy-policy-geopolitical-environmental-goals Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on the-dollar-as-a-reserve-currency
• Michael De Percy and John Poljak on energy-security-embracing-technological-neutrality

General

• Tim Harford on what-an-abusive-chatbot-teaches-us-about-the-art-of-conversation
• Sebastian Duchene and Ashleigh Porter on why-are-there-so-many-new-omicron-sub-variants-like-ba-4-and-ba-5-will-i-be-reinfected-is-the-virus-mutating-faster

Climate

• open mind on correlation-between-co2-and-temperature, correlation-between-co2-climate-forcing-and-temperature
• Real Climate on river-ice-break-up-trends-2022
• moyhu on april-global-surface-templs-down-015-from-march

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• how-many-clusters-and-a-declaration-of-selection-bias
  
• polls-2
  
• hey-you-cant-fool-me-im-a-freud-expert
  
• probabilistic-feature-analysis-of-facial-perception-of-emotions
  
• humans-interacting-with-the-human-computer-interaction-literature
  
• googles-problems-with-reproducibility
  
• journal-is-just-another-blog
  
• giving-an-honest-talk
  
• ask-the-polling-expert
  

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on equity and discrimination in finance

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• in-thrall-to-games
  

Vox Wonk

• goods-inflation-likely-transitory-upside-risks-longer-term-inflation-remain
  
• bargaining-advantages-autocratic-leaders-conflicts-between-totalitarian-and-democratic-regimes
  
• climate-change-weather-shocks-and-migratory-flows
  
• public-support-carbon-taxation
  
• policy-drivers-hiring-transitions
  
• global-inequality-boomerang
  
• principal-multi-agent-model-sanctions
  
• historical-lessons-real-effects-unstable-stablecoins
  
• tech-ownership-banks-and-regulatory-response
  
• historical-lessons-real-effects-unstable-stablecoins
  
• zombie-firms-and-take-support-measures-during-covid-19
  
• widespread-food-insecurity-not-inevitable-avoid-escalating-food-export-curbs
  
• pension-systems-matter-wealth-accumulation-and-distribution
  
• tax-aversion-and-social-contract-africa
  
• how-war-ukraine-may-reshape-globalisation