Rod Stewart

 Here is Rod Stewart doing a great job of john Newton's song amazing grace

and now with Jeff Beck doing that great old Negro spiritual people get ready

Around the Traps 29/4/22

 It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Patricia O'Brien on in-the-wake-of-the-china-solomon-islands-pact-australia-needs-to-rethink-its-pacific-relationships
• Declan Kuch on now-we-know-the-flaws-of-carbon-offsets-its-time-to-get-real-about-climate-change
• Jun Yao et al on all-new-smaller-size-why-getting-less-with-shrinkflation-is-preferable-to-paying-more
• Alexandre Layant on solomons-how-australia-stacks-up-in-china-aid-bidding-war
• Ross Gittins on if-you-care-about-our-future-care-about-declining-home-ownership, banking-royal-commission-much-misconduct-not-much-followup
• renew economy on australia-will-miss-its-weak-2030-emissions-reduction-targets-new-data-shows, nsw-coal-plants-are-ramping-hard-as-spot-prices-surge, ipas-laughably-hysterical-and-completely-wrong-net-zero-analysis, now-we-know-the-flaws-of-carbon-offsets-its-time-to-get-real-about-climate-change, renewables-to-be-the-new-baseload-by-2030-says-mckinsey, low-emissions-lower-prices-south-australias-remarkable-shift-to-wind-and-solar, origin-snaps-up-1gw-of-solar-projects-as-it-plans-for-future-without-coal, its-time-we-stopped-kidding-ourselves-about-cheap-and-reliable-coal
• Lisa Cox on replacing-nsw-coal-plant-with-renewables-would-create-thousands-more-jobs-than-gas-report-says
• Mark the Ballot on ipsos-45-55-and-newspoll-47-53, some-historical-context
• Tony Walker on morrison-dutton-go-hard-on-national-security-but-will-it-have-any-effect-on-the-election
• Peter Martin on there-are-4-economic-wildcards-between-now-and-election-day-the-first-gets-played-this-week
• Christian Downie on when-tank-s-empty-australia-s-impoverished-energy-security
• Peter Layton on fixing-australia-s-failing-pacific-step-strategy
• Mark Diesendorf on net-zero-by-2050-will-hit-a-major-timing-problem-technology-cant-solve-we-need-to-talk-about-cutting-consumption
• John Hawkins on inflation-hits-an-extraordinary-5-1-how-long-until-mortgage-rates-climb
• John Quiggin on the-6-4-2-solution
• Greg Jericho on australian-inflation-rate-figures-give-the-lie-to-scott-morrison-claims-of-strong-economic-management
• Peter Hannan on wholesale-power-prices-double-in-a-year-in-australias-main-electricity-market
• Caroline Schuster on a-new-type-of-insurance-pays-out-as-soon-as-extreme-weather-hits-and-we-could-try-it-in-australia
• Greg Barton on peter-dutton-says-australia-should-prepare-for-war-so-how-likely-is-a-military-conflict-with-china
• Croaking Cassandra on an-update-and-a-book-recommendation
• Bruce Robertson et al on if-chevron-exxon-and-shell-cant-get-gorgons-carbon-capture-and-storage-who-can

Northern America

• Ian Millhiser on ron-desantis-disney-first-amendment-constitution-supreme-court, supreme-court-kennedy-bremerton-religion-praying-coach-school-football
• Christina Cauterina on texas-abortion-ban-women-decisions
• noahopinion on the-youtube-nazi-panic-was-just-another-moral-panic
• the conversable economist on are-us-fertility-rates-starting-to-decline
• Monica Potts on why-being-anti-science-is-now-part-of-many-rural-americans-identity
• public notice on trump-zelensky-meeting-2019-revisited
• Brad De Long on will-the-ukrainian-army-hold-in-its-east, still-on-team-the-fed-has-got-this
• Zach Beauchamp on ron-desantis-florida-viktor-orban-hungary-right-authoritarian

Europe

• Romain Faithi on emmanuel-macron-is-reelected-but-the-french-are-longing-for-radical-change
• Ellen Ionnes on french-election-macron-le-pen-where-france-is-headed
• Zack Beauchamp on russia-donbas-new-phase-war-ukraine-explained
• Tim Judah on the-russian-terror
• Robert Waldmann on reflections-on-the-evolution-in-france
• public notice on masha-gessen-cnn-reliable-sources-kremlin-lies
• Mainly Macro on is-uk-heading-for-recession
• Barkley Rosser on in-ukraine-use-weapon-russians-cant-match

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on what-to-make-of-the-chinese-sovereign-yield-curve
• Evan Laksmana on not-all-maritime-disputes-are-built-same
• Huynh Sang on vietnam-s-four-no-s-defence-policy-are-being-tested

Wonk

• Alex Tabarrok on why-are-skyscrapers-so-short
• the conversable economist on the-digital-currency-ecosystem-and-blockchain, was-primitive-communism-ever-real
• Institutional Economics on the-reserve-currency-myth-revisited
• Ro McFarlane et al on a-year-of-hunger-how-the-russia-ukraine-war-is-worsening-climate-linked-food-shortages
• Menzie Chinn on the-new-fama-puzzle, guest-contribution-energy-policies-can-be-both-geopolitical-and-green
• Nouriel Roubini on world-economy-stagflationary-perfect-storm Thanks Brad
• Shivangi Seth on putting-putin-trial-enforce-price-powerful
• noahopinion on think-bigger-about-remote-work

General

• Matt Field and William Ballard on from-wolf-to-chihuahua-new-research-reveals-where-the-dingo-sits-on-the-evolutionary-timeline-of-dogs

Climate

• Skeptical Science on climate change will transform how we live , past and future climate change

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-perils-of-apparently-logical-thinking
  
• more-news-on-columbia-universitys-apparent-manipulation-of-numbers-that-go-into-its-u-s-news-ranking-spoiler-its-not-good-news
  
• elites-giving-advice-to-elites-giving-advice-to-elites
  
• hey-check-this-out-its-really-cool-a-bayesian-framework-for-interpreting-findings-from-impact-evaluations
  
• the-challenge-of-bending-over-backward-to-see-things-from-the-other-persons-point-of-view
  

Econometrics

• Marc Bellamare on why I wrote doing economics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• spending-our-time-the-ultimate-scarce-resource
  
• noahopinion on book-review-trade-wars-are-class-wars

Vox Wonk

• health-income-and-preston-curve
  
• economists-want-see-changes-their-peer-review-system-let-s-do-something-about-it
  
• firm-level-effects-cutting-russian-energy
  
• decentralisation-and-environment-attitudes-and-policy
  
• bank-lending-and-exchange-rate-shocks
  
• decentralisation-and-environment-attitudes-and-policy
  
• exogenous-shocks-industrial-policy-and-us-semiconductor-industry
  
• trade-s-resilience-covid-19
  
• conflict-resolution-ukraine-war
  
• better-land-use-and-insurance-mitigate-natural-disasters
  
• loss-human-capital-ukraine
  
• linking-education-policies-productivity
  
• household-spending-and-fiscal-support-during-pandemic
  

The RBA has been far too slow

 The CPI was released yesrday and it was a shocker. Annual inflation is now 5.1% and might reach 6-7% in the quarters to come.

Forget about wages. the RBA should have had cash rates at 1.5% NOW .The CBA estimates 1.5% is the neutral rate. One has to ask why are interest rates so stimulatory when we are essentially at full employment. The RBA has been asleep at the wheel and way to complacent. Lowe has been way to dovish.

Rates need to be raised by AT LEAST 0.4% next tuesday. Anything less means the RBA has lost credibility.

All I'm advocating is getting cash back to normal. If wages take off of which I am sceptical about then interest rates can become contractionary.

I have been bingeing

 My youngest son signed up for a free trial of binge. It had Blue Bloods on it.

It only went to season 9 unfortunately.

I again repeat it is a great series surprisingly so given it is a yank show. It was very enjoyable to binge on watching every season up to season 9.

The show has a few problems however.

• No-one but no-one drinks red wine when eating chicken.
• The ages just do not gel. Erin goes from 36 to 40 in one season. Frank would have to be in his 70s given the agers of his children!
• Frank who is the PC goes through too many Mayors,
• There is no chemistry in any relationship we observe.
• Jaime, the youngest son, has a harvard law degree, but just wants to be a beat cop. Huh. Any person who goes to Harvard has ambition

however even given this and there is more it is still highly enjoyable to watch.

A few thoughts on the election

 Okay, we have a longish election campaign. My guess people are only now just turning their attention top it. See latest polls from the EXCELLENT Mark the Ballot.

Let us start with some basics. First of all seat polls are crap as Kevin Bonham has shown. Secondly internal party polls are usually lies. We are never told about the size of the survey or the margin of error. Parties very rarely poll only one seat because of the expense. They will survey perhaps 4 marginal seats with 500 people in each seat. Internal party polls should not contradict public polls. If they do treat them with great caution.

As I see it there is a lot of pressure on Scott Morrison this week. Just remember the Liberal party and its apologists are saying he is a great campaigner ( without ever giving us any evidence or even suggesting what metrics should be used to measure this.) A great campaigner would surely increase his party's vote if he is campaigning in essence alone.

The government was campaigning on two issues. the econmy and national security. The latter has never resonated with the public and given the Solomon Islands fiasco could well become a negative. Only Sky after Dark will not pour scorn on Dutton's latest idiotic statements regarding war. 

When one compares the frontbenches then the ALP has the upper hand.

If you trust the polling organisations have learnt from their massive polling failure of the last election then it appears this election is the ALP's to lose.

Whoopsy I should have added a long campaign is rarely a good strategy. The punters never like them

Commemorating war

 Ned Dobos writes a very interesting article for the Lowy Institute which is entitled does-commemorating-war-really-promote-peace.

It is a must read on Anzac day.

Around the Traps 22/4/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on easter-offers-no-escape-from-our-responsibility-on-climate-change, its-not-jobs-were-short-of-its-jobs-were-short-of
• Rod Tyers on australia-would-be-among-the-biggest-economic-losers-from-a-new-cold-war
• Peter Christoff on climate-policy-in-2022-is-no-longer-a-political-bin-fire-but-it-remains-a-smouldering-issue-for-voters
• renew economy on australians-pay-every-day-for-political-negligence-on-fuel-standards, victoria-reaches-record-wind-and-solar-share-of-83-8-per-cent, south-australia-grid-reaches-record-high-of-136-6-pct-renewables, another-lie-it-is-time-to-call-out-coalitions-climate-modelling-con, new-giga-scale-contender-emerges-in-race-to-export-solar-to-singapore, policy-failures-leave-australia-vulnerable-to-further-fuel-price-shocks, australia-gets-new-player-in-auto-bidding-renewables-and-storage-market, consumers-would-enjoy-lower-electricity-costs-with-a-faster-exit-from-coal
• Institutional Economics on out-of-patience
• Dennis Muller on how-much-do-mainstream-media-matter-in-an-election-campaign-spoiler-more-than-you-might-think
• Peter Martin on this-economic-model-tipped-the-last-2-elections-and-its-now-pointing-to-a-coalition-win
• Stephen Bartos on pefo-tells-us-morrison-has-abandoned-some-secret-promises-but-his-books-are-in-order
• Caroline Fisher and Ivor Gaber on this-worked-much-better-than-i-thought-why-you-need-to-watch-out-for-strategic-lies-in-the-federal-election
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-federal-hung-parliament
• David Peetz on reboot-what-is-the-better-off-overall-test-and-should-you-be-worried-about-it
• Peter Whiteford and Bruce Bradbury on albanese-has-dropped-labors-pledge-to-boost-jobseeker-with-unemployment-low-is-that-actually-fair-enough

Northern America

• Very Serious on brain-dead-environmentalism-loses Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on inflation-and-structural-adjustment
• Jeremy Stahl on trump-indictment-prosecution-theories
• noahopinion on defense-spending-again, what-is-the-rights-economic-plan
• renew economy on graph-of-the-day-wind-beats-both-nuclear-and-coal-for-first-time-in-us
• Uneasy Money on why-im-not-apologizing-for-calling-recent-inflation-transitory
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-mask-mandate-airplane-mizelle-biden, supreme-court-puerto-rico-vaello-madero-ssi-rational-basis-brett-kavanaugh-sonia-sotomayor
• newdeal democrat on the-worst-interest-rate-upturn-since-1994-is-likely-to-produce-the-worst-housing-downturn-in-over-a-decade
• Jean Yi and Nathaniel Rakisch on more-than-70-percent-of-trumps-endorsees-believe-the-2020-election-was-fraudulent
• the conversable economist on the-case-for-doubling-us-rd-spending
• Craig Fuller on the-supply-chain-bullwhip-is-doing-the-feds-job-on-inflation Thanks Brad
• Neal Danesha on climate-change-buildings-insulation 
• Menzie Chinn on how-much-faster-has-american-inflation-been-compared-to-euro-area-inflation

Europe

• Alexey Kovalev on russia-putin-propaganda-ukraine-war-crimes-atrocities Thanks Brad
• Dominque Fraser and Juliette McIntyre on duty-prevent-genocide-ukraine
• Peter Layton on putin-s-war-everybody-loses
• William Partlett on how-long-can-vladimir-putin-hold-on-to-power
• Vani Murali on russia-ukraine-it-always-comes-down-food
• Maria Nepkova on putin-russia-media-crackdown-press-freedom
• James McCauley and Madelaine Schwartz on macron-on-the-precipice-french-election
• Fred Kaplan on why-the-battle-for-donbas-could-be-another-debacle-for-russia
• Mainly Macro on is-sending-uk-asylum-seekers-to-rwanda

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on china-q1-gdp-illustrated
• noahopinion on hu-jintao-was-very-underrated
• Norman Waite on chinas-current-focus-on-coal-is-distinct-from-long-term-goals

Wonk

• Tim Harford on five-ways-to-fight-the-information-war
• Paul Griffin on whats-the-new-omicron-xe-variant-and-should-i-be-worried
• Robert Niven on how-to-survive-a-tactical-nuclear-bomb-defence-experts-explain
• Menzie Chinn on imf-weo-forecasts
• jornt gosens and Frank Jotszo on chinas-demand-for-seaborne-coal-is-set-to-drop-fast-and-far-australia-should-take-note
• the conversable economist on some-economics-of-supply-chains, the-current-puzzle-of-labor-markets
• Ned Dobos on does-commemorating-war-really-promote-peace
• noahopinion on how-to-stay-optimistic-in-these-dark-times

General

• Helen Young on how-tolkien-and-lord-of-the-rings-inspired-the-commercial-and-artistic-success-of-the-fantasy-fiction-genre
• Jamie Roberts on guide-to-the-classics-shakespeares-hamlet-the-everest-of-literature

Climate

• Menzie Chinn on global-climate-change-some-links
• Moyhu on giss-march-global-temperature-up-by-016-from-fedruary, global-projections-for-templs-temperature-reporting
• and Then Theres Physics on the-greenhouse-effect-2
• real climate on the-modern-demarcation-problem

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• switch-half-a-million-votes-and-trump-wouldve-tied-in-the-electoral-college
  
• spam-is-so-much-fun-but-sometimes-its-baffling
  
• asymmetries-in-research-misconduct-in-collaborations
  
• again-on-the-problems-with-technology-that-makes-it-more-convenient-to-gamble-away-your-money
  
• code-never-lies
  
• when-are-cognitive-forcing-functions-interesting
  
• politics-and-covid-interesting-example-of-aggregation-and-correlation
  
• jamaican-me-crazy-the-return-of-the-overestimated-effect-of-early-childhood-intervention
  
• how-junk-science-persists-in-academia-news-media-and-social-media-resistance-to-the-resistance
  
• statschat on briefly
• Kaiser Fung on do-better, all-else-is-never-equal

Econometrics

• Marx Bellamare on doing economics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the experiment has started so lets make it work
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• china-s-other-challenge-growth-investment-intangible-assets
  
• investigating-drivers-remittance-fees
  
• collective-moral-hazard-and-interbank-market
  
• economic-spillovers-war-ukraine-proximity-penalty
  
• figuring-out-efficient-unemployment
  
• effect-conflict-education
  
• manifold-impacts-compulsory-invention-secrecy
  
• russia-s-invasion-ukraine-has-raised-germans-inflation-expectations
  
• how-implement-eu-embargo-russian-oil
  
• exploring-hidden-price-effect-china-s-official-gdp-estimates
  
• multiplier-united-states-largest-scholarship-programme
  
• what-stock-price-reactions-russia-ukraine-war-tell-us-about-energy-transition
  

Book Reviews: Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson

 Over Easter I read Lion in the White House. A biography of Teddy Roosevelt and Wilson, a biography of Woodrow Wilson.

If you like US politics then these are two of the most intelligent and interesting Presidents. They were also very similar yet disliked each other. Both claimed to be Christian with Wilson definitely having strong credentials here. He knew slavery was bad but wanted it to change through evolution. A radical concept for a southerner but still a massive rationalisation for a politician. 

There were a lot of race riots where negroes died by the hundreds under both men. Also of interest was the driving od electric cars!

The first book is short but Wilson is long.

Both were very fortunate to be President but led very reforming presidencies.

I cannot do justice to either book but simply say read both of them then compare and contrast.

Blayney

 I went to Blayney for Easter. My wife's mother still lives there and she wanted to see all her grandchildren which she did.

The town is over 3,000 and rather prosperous. housing is tight with miners ( of the gold mines) and people of sydney buying new houses as quick as they get on the market.

The town now has NO banks and only one ATM so the post office does a roaring business. It still has three pubs and motels. It has a rather large IGA.

It also feels warmer than say teen years ago.

My late father in law was one of three doctors who made good money. There is only one doctor now.

All very interesting

Climate Change. The page to read

 If you want to read about Climate Change then Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser has given us global-climate-change-some-links

Around the Traps 15/4/22 Easter Edition

 It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark Gregory on whats-next-for-the-national-broadband-network-labor-and-the-coalitions-plans-compared
• Peter Martin on one-issue-matters-more-to-top-economists-than-any-other-this-election-climate-change, forget-the-election-gaffes-australias-unemployment-rate-of-4-is-good-news-and-set-to-get-even-better-by-polling-day
• Adrian Beaumont on as-the-election-campaign-begins-what-do-the-polls-say-and-can-we-trust-them-this-time
• Ross Gittins on budget-is-guide-to-whos-morrison-mate-and-who-is-not, 2022/04/going-ahead-with-stage-3-tax-cuts-would-be-irresppnsible, lets-use-this-election-to-raise-quality-of-politics
• Institutional economics on australia-goes-to-the-polls
• Felicity Dean on the-morrison-government-wants-farmers-to-profit-from-looking-after-the-land-but-will-anyone-want-to-pay
• Joey Moloney and Brendan Coates on renters-spend-10-times-as-much-on-housing-as-petrol-wheres-their-cost-of-living-relief
• Daniel Flitton on does-australia-have-too-many-elections
• Mark the Ballot on polls-before-election-is-called
• renew economy on projects-in-limbo-as-morrisons-promised-billions-evaporate-on-election-call, bad-for-coal-and-good-for-consumers-leading-rooftop-pv-critic-shifts-his-views, australias-climate-failures-could-double-spiralling-debt-costs-government-modelling-shows, aemo-says-keans-battery-plan-key-to-keeping-lights-on-after-eraring-coal-closure, solar-duck-curve-neoen-signs-virtual-battery-deal-with-agl-for-canberra-battery
• Simon Eckerman on did-the-morrison-government-really-prevent-40-000-covid-deaths-a-health-economist-checks-claims-against-facts
• Kevin Bonham on two-party-swing-is-fine-predictor-of-seat-share-changes, prospects-for-2022-senate-election
• Stephen Duckett on labors-urgent-care-centres-are-a-step-in-the-right-direction-but-not-a-panacea
• James Laurenson and Elena Collinson on from-handshakes-to-threats-can-the-election-bring-a-fresh-start-in-our-fractured-relationship-with-china
• Anika Stobart and Kate Griffiths on few-restrictions-no-spending-limit-and-almost-no-oversight-welcome-to-political-advertising-in-australia
• Jeff Borland on technically-our-unemployment-rate-now-begins-with-a-3-how-do-we-keep-it-there

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn in has-the-ten-year-treasury-yield-equaled-the-average-of-ex-post-future-short-rates-plus-a-risk-premium
• Quark soup on desperate-junk
• the grumpy economist on fed-psychology-updates
• the time of monsters on podcast-the-rise-and-possible-fall-of-commentary
• newdeal democrat on paul-krugman-vs-nate-silver-cage-match, march-consumer-inflation-part-1-real-wages-decline-sharply, march-consumer-inflation-part-2-i-told-you-so
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-05
• noahopinion on democrats-need-to-run-on-the-war
• Michael Smith on meanwhile-in-texas-privatize-the-profits-socialize-the-losses
• David Cole on how-rights-went-wrong
• Sue Halpern on the-first-defense-against-trumps-assault-on-democracy
• Dylan Mathews on inflation-federal-reserve-nairu-ngdp-powell
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-affirmative-action-coalition-tj-fairfax-school-george-bush-race

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on russian-external-debt-in-doubt, russia-drops-the-policy-rate-what-does-it-mean
• Robert Waldmann on ukraine-vs-russia-lessons-learned
• Paul Smith on french-election-as-marine-le-pen-makes-it-to-second-round-the-left-wing-vote-is-what-troubles-president-emmanuel-macron
• Franklin Foer on ukraine-war-zelensky-passover
• Lauren Williams on bucha-capturing-horror
• Chris Bertram on french-election-update

Asia

• Ryosuke Hanada on how-japan-can-help-nudge-india-away-russia
• noahopinion on five-reasons-chinas-productivity-slowdown
• Bec Strating on china-s-nine-dash-line-proves-stranger-fiction
• Timothy Stratton et al on bellicose-or-bluster-how-south-koreans-see-north-s-nuclear-threat

Wonk

• Tim Harford on what-le-corbusier-got-right-about-office-space
• Mainly Macro on the-vulnerability-of-democracy-in-bad-times
• noahopinion on the-two-paper-rule
• sandwichman on the-obsolescence-of-nostalgia
• Adriana Bora on platforms-supporting-ukrainian-refugees-must-prioritise-their-safety-or-risk-exposing-them-to-trafficking-and-exploitation
• John Potter and Amanda Kalsvig on long-covid-affects-1-in-5-people-following-infection-vaccination-masks-and-better-indoor-air-are-our-best-protections
• the conversable economist on slavery-and-economic-development-in-brazil, women-in-parliaments-around-the-world, some-economics-of-the-black-death
• Clive Schofield on law-sea-contested-watershed-ruling
• Tyler Cowen on gdp-vs-gnp

General

• Alex Tabarrok on when-can-should-we-pull-the-plug
• Melissa Forbes on flow-state-exercise-and-healthy-ageing-5-unexpected-benefits-of-singing
• Sam Baron on time-might-not-exist-according-to-physicists-and-philosophers-but-thats-okay

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on scenarios
• Malte Meinhauseen et al on realisation of paris agreement Thanks Peter Whiteford thru Frank Jotzo

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• nate-silver-scooped-us
  
• does-ben-lerner-play-poker
  
• gigerenzer-on-the-supposed-evidence-for-libertarian-paternalism
  
• the-accidental-experiment-that-saved-700-lives
  
• plaig-5
  
• statschat on blowing-in-the-wind

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• calling-economics-phd-students
  

Vox Wonk

• imf-s-thinking-capital-controls-and-next-steps
  
• reducing-electricity-blackouts-developing-countries
  
• china-s-overseas-lending-and-war-ukraine
  
• recidivism-and-neighbourhood-institutions
  
• how-health-interventions-can-address-ill-health-and-also-prevent-conflict
  
• refugee-migration-and-labour-market
  
• import-liberalisation-export-destruction
  
• role-capital-controls-and-macroprudential-measures-taming-capital-flows
  
• reconciling-eu-s-domestic-and-global-agendas
  
• monetary-and-macroprudential-policies-trade-offs-and-interactions
  
• overheating-conditions-indicate-high-probability-us-recession
  
• impact-uncertainty-investment-russian-firms
  
• simple-economics-tariff-russian-energy-imports
  
• two-dimensional-feature-ecb-monetary-policy
  
• civilian-impact-war-ukraine
  
• why-fiscal-multipliers-estimates-change-over-time-and-what-determines-their-magnitude
  

AEMO confident there will be enough electricty after Eraring with a caveat

 AEMO is now confident there will be no electricity shortages when Eraring closes.

HOWEVER there is a strong caveat. AEMO points  out, the wind and solar farms have to be not just built, they have to be connected with transmission and supported by storage. Transmission is becoming increasingly important to transport power from one region to another.

Culture Wars Yank style

 David Appell has a small article on how Democrat and Republican governors handled the pandemic. A lot of lives were killed.

The proposed tax cuts are wildly irresponsible

 Ross Gittins has a very nice article on this.

Just a few things. how can anyone be thinking of tax cuts when we need to repair the budget. Quite the opposite in fact.

Merely growing the economy does NOT reduce the structural deficit.

The Election is called.

 Finally Scott Morrison went to the Governor General and called an election.

Here are some topical articles.

• how-the-coalition-can-win-the-2022-election
  
• how-labor-can-win-the-2022-election
  
• an-election-fought-on-the-political-low-ground
  
• where-are-the-most-marginal-seats-and-who-might-win-them
  
• as-the-election-campaign-begins-what-do-the-polls-say-and-can-we-trust-them-this-time
  
• explainer-what-are-preference-deals-and-how-do-they-work
  
• morrison-talks-risk-albanese-spruiks-opportunity-in-opening-pitches
  
• australia-goes-to-the-polls
  

A few thoughts from me.

Do not pay any attention to seat polls. As Kevin Bonham has constantly shown they are crap.

I do wish people would stop saying Morrison is a great campaigner. There was a  massive polling failure last time so we do not know whether he increased or decreased the liberal's vote.

In my local seat Jerome Laxlale is a very good local candidate. Not a cabinet minister but knows his community very well.

Around the Traps 8/4/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andrew Blakkers and Cheng on australia-plans-to-be-a-big-green-hydrogen-exporter-to-asian-markets-but-they-dont-need-it
• David Peetz on despite-record-job-vacancies-australians-shouldnt-expect-big-pay-rises-anytime-soon-and-heres-why
• Ross Gittins on huge-public-debt-isnt-worry-its-continued-budget-deficits
• Sukhmani Khorana on preselection-and-parachuting-candidates-3-reasons-parties-override-their-local-branch-members-despite-the-costs
• Frank Jotzo et al on ipcc-says-the-tools-to-stop-catastrophic-climate-change-are-in-our-hands-heres-how-to-use-them
• Kevin Bonham on peter-gutwein-resignation-and-recount, poll-roundup-lukewarm-budget-reception
• renew economy on is-there-a-place-for-hydrogen-fuelled-gas-plants-on-a-renewable-grid, new-data-shows-big-jump-in-toxic-coal-plant-pollution-even-as-output-falls, taylor-tries-to-delay-coal-closures-demands-five-years-notice-before-shut-downs
• Peter Martin on the-budget-super-giveaway-that-allows-the-already-wealthy-to-amass-even-more-tax-free
• David Walker on how-shorism-might-win-australias-federal-election
• Greg Jericho on the-rbas-decade-without-a-rate-rise-is-coming-to-an-end-but-the-markets-expectations-are-absurd
• Isaac Gross on the-rba-has-lost-some-patience-on-rates-but-it-isnt-rushing-to-push-them-up-heres-why
• John Quiggin on times-up-why-australia-has-to-quit-stalling-and-wean-itself-off-fossil-fuels
• Ross Gittins on budget-is-guide-to-whos-morrison-mate-and-who-is-not
• Institutional economics on a-post-election-review-of-monetary-policy

Northern America

• new deal democrat on yet-another-strong-showing-for-jobs-and-unemployment-while-strong-wage-growth-nevertheless-likely-lags-inflation
• the grumpy economist on is-fed-fisherian, is-fed-new-keynesian
• the conversable economist on the-case-for-burying-downtown-freeways
• Tim Naphtali on trump-phone-calls-nixon-watergate-gap
• Tyler Cowen on why-is-the-u-s-inflation-rate-especially-high
• Dahlia Lithwick on why-the-clarence-and-ginni-thomas-scandal-still-matters
• Macromania on what-economic-model-produces-feds-inflation-forecast
• David Warnstead et al on u-s-surging-energy-prices-accelerating-pace-of-wind-solar-and-battery-adoption

Europe

• noahopinion on the-long-economic-war-against-russia
• Chris Bertram on the-coming-french-elections
• renew economy on france-pays-the-steep-cost-of-inflexible-and-ageing-nuclear-as-electricity-prices-soar
• Mathew Sussex on as-horrific-evidence-of-massacres-is-uncovered-in-ukraine-russian-propaganda-gathers-pace
• Marcus Colla on turkey-plays-dance-go-betweens-ukraine-war
• Noel King and Victoria Chamberlin on vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-history
• Mainly Macro on why-conservatives-cannot-be-tax-cutting-party 
• Menzie Chinn on russia-drops-the-policy-rate-what-does-it-mean

Asia

• Tara Davenport on lawfare-south-china-sea-disputes
• Andrea Wong on bongbong-marcos-closes-philippines-presidency
• Johannes Nugroho on democracy-or-dynasty-megawati-delivers-jokowi-clip

Wonk

• David Brewster on aukus-can-be-good-platform-cooperation-india
• Tim Harford on can-maintenance-save-civilisation
• stumbling and mumbling on privatized-keynesianism
• Thomas Weidman et al on ipcc-finds-the-world-has-its-best-chance-yet-to-slash-emissions-if-it-seizes-the-opportunity
• Abuit Singh on maritime-security-and-rules-based-order
• Paul Grogan and Guy Marks on a-damning-review-of-e-cigarettes-shows-vaping-leads-to-smoking-the-opposite-of-what-supporters-claim
• Jay Batongbacal on protecting-law-and-order-sea-means-educating-people-their-rights
• noahopinion on meme-stocks-and-bitcoin-will-not-redistribute-wealth
• Kruggers on will-putin-kill-the-global-economy
• the conversable economist on world-wealth-human-physical-and-natural
• Uneasy Money on on-the-labor-supply-function

General

• Peter Tuthill and Barnaby Norris on how-do-planets-form-a-baby-jupiter-hundreds-of-light-years-away-offers-new-clues

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on techniques-of-climate-denial
• Moyhu on march-global-surface-templs-up-0146-from-fedruary
• Kaye Clayton on shore-thing-climate-change-and-maritime-security-intrinsically-linked

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-epidemiologists-and-the-kardashians-and-the-difficulty-of-introducing-satire-in-scientific-discourse
• why-the-new-pollution-literature-is-credible-but-im-still-guessing-that-the-effects-are-being-overestimated
  
• the-journal-public-choice-goes-the-way-of-lancet-and-publishes-a-paper-that-is-riddled-with-errors-but-comes-to-a-political-conclusion-that-they-want-to-support
  
• two-truths-and-a-lie-as-a-class-participation-activity
  
• confidence-intervals-compatability-intervals-uncertainty-intervals
  
• further-ranting-on-public-choices-terrible-decision-if-uri-geller-submits-a-paper-claiming-to-have-photographs-of-the-loch-ness-monster-you-dont-just-say-hey-the-photos-look-real-lets-go
  
• continuing-uncertainty-regarding-what-was-going-on-in-santa-clara-county-california-in-april-2020
  
• different-effect-sizes-used-in-statistics-psychometrics-or-machine-learning-what-should-this-researcher-do
  
• reading-practicing-talking-and-questioning
  
• hey-check-out-this-post-from-2006-when-i-was-mellow-actually-too-mellow-too-nice-and-too-understanding
  
• Statschat on cancer-and-weed

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on modelling contagion

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• war-induced-food-price-inflation-imperils-poor
  
• ukraine-invasion-oil-sanctions-accelerating-energy-transition
  
• trust-and-monetary-policy
  
• understanding-reallocation-displaced-workers-firms
  
• inter-ethnic-complementarities-and-indigenous-resilience-pandemics-and-war-mexico
  
• forced-labour-and-mortality-nineteenth-century-java
  
• what-we-know-about-wage-inflationary-channel
  
• monetary-policy-very-low-rates
  
• website-technologies-pandemic
  
• sanctions-and-international-monetary-system
  
• globalisation-and-effective-taxation-capital-versus-labour
  
• trillion-dollar-question-how-much-does-russia-owe-ukraine
  
• global-supply-chain-risk-and-resilience
  

Poll Roundup

The ever excellent Kevin Bonham has his latest poll roundup.

always essential reading.

Who to pre-select?

 Both major parties have their troubles when they do not allow local members to vote for 'their' candidate.

the ALP have parachuted Kristina Keneally and now Andrew Charlton in relatively safe seats without allowing local members a say. IMHO Keneally is vastly over-rated. She was not rated by local members in the Bennelong by-election. Andrew Charlton on the other hand is a huge talent. An economic advisor to Rudd when he was PM then went into the private sector where he was very successful. (( He is now a multi-millionaire and in charge of Accenture). His great problem like that of the late Doc Evatt is how can he fully represent local constituents. 

The Liberal party is going to have a number of electorates where the candidate is selected by only a few men.

It means you are betting big time local members of your party will accept your decision and be at the polling booths to hand out how to vote leaflets etc and not stay home.

It seems to me parachuting people  is a seat by seat question. In the ALP problems it would be Fowler no Parramatta maybe.

Parties too many times want the 'wonder' candidates rather than the hardworking local person. In my electorate of Bennolong the ALP have selected Jerome Laxalle whom I have met and am impressed with. however he will only be the hardworking local candidate and you know what. That is fine by me. He might even win!

The Morrison matter

 There is a bit of a brouhaha over Morrison's pre-selection in 2007 when the then rugby loving person from the Eastern suburbs was parachuted into the seat of Cook.

He originally did not win the pre-selection. Rumours about the winning candidate  were that he could not win because he was lebanese and that he was a muslim amongst other things. In fact he was a maronite christian.

We know this occurred as quite a few people have verified it. A number have said they were spread by Morrison. He has denied this. As he was the only beneficiary if it did not come from Morrison then it certainly came from someone in his 'camp'

The problem for Morrison is that is merely adds more weight to the lead in saddlebags he is carrying about his character. Not good to have in the week he has to call an election.

Someone really does not like Morrison at all. All this is happening because people perceive Morrison is in a weak space politically which is being exacerbated by his poor pollical judgement. 

It is no coincidence this did not occur last election 

The budget deficit is the problem

 Ross Gittins has a column complaining about continuing budget deficits. He is correct.

Now is the time to reduce the structural deficit significantly as we have gotten to full employment. A cyclical improvement does not obviate from reducing a structural deficit otherwise if we slow down for whatever reason the deficit will still be there.