Around the Traps 1/4/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Nial Wheate on no-sunscreen-chemicals-are-not-bleaching-the-great-barrier-reef
• Armarium Interreta on do-state-polling-errors-predict-federal-polling-errors
• renew economy on pace-is-extraordinary-advanced-inverters-take-centre-stage-in-roadmap-to-100pct-renewables, perverse-australian-fossil-fuel-subsidies-will-top-22000-a-minute-this-year, switching-to-renewables-is-most-effective-way-to-prevent-gas-shortfalls-aemo-says, some-households-lose-20-per-cent-of-their-solar-output-from-grid-curtailment, australia-had-record-renewables-year-in-2021-but-there-are-clouds-on-horizon
• Steven Hall on this-budget-amid-talk-of-deficits-consider-the-lessons-we-ought-to-have-learned
• Stephen Duckett on health-budget-2022-spends-a-little-on-favoured-interest-groups-but-misses-a-chance-for-real-reform
• Richard Holden on josh-frydenbergs-budget-is-an-extraordinary-turnaround-but-leaves-a-40-billion-problem
• Peter Martin on budget-2022-frydenberg-has-spent-big-but-on-the-whole-responsibly
• Croaking Cassandra on one-palliser-two-pallisers
• Greg Jericho on australia-federal-budget-2022-six-graphs-you-need-to-see, the-amazing-thing-about-the-2022-budget-how-clearly-it-reveals-the-governments-death-throes
• Tony Wood on poor-policy-and-short-sightedness-how-the-budget-treats-climate-change-and-energy-in-the-wake-of-disasters
• Margaret Cook on why-can-floods-like-those-in-the-northern-rivers-come-in-clusters
• Ross Gittins on sleight-of-hand-frydenbergs-dissapearing-cash-trick
• Samantha Hepburn on the-morrison-governments-50-million-gas-handout-undermines-climate-targets-and-does-nothing-to-improve-energy-security
• Johanna Bowyer on change-to-the-emissions-reduction-fund-jeopardises-australias-35-emission-reduction-forecast-unless-taxpayers-fork-out

Northern America

• The Overshoot on last-looks-at-the-pre-war-world-1: America's boom Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on the-car-will-triumph-again, give-us-all-the-refugees-dammit
• Uneasy Money on hayek-schools-banana-republican-followers-of-scalia-declaring-war-on-unenumerated-rights
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-clarence-thomas-voting-rights-democracy-elections-ginni
• Dennis Aftergut on eastman-emails-donald-trump-prosecution
• Andrew Prokop on trump-burner-phones-judge-crimes-january-6
• David Frum on trump-phone-calls-gap-january-6
• Menzie Chinn on plain-vanilla-term-spread-forecasts-of-recession, empirical-estimates-of-steel-tariff-pass-through
• Barkely Rosser on conventional-macroeconomics-rears-its-head
• Lesley Seebeck on ukraine-isn-t-information-war-you-were-looking
• the time of monsters on the-qanon-boomerang

Europe

• Jonathan Guyer on nato-resurgence-biden-trip-putin-ukraine
• renew economy on germany-can-go-without-russian-gas-by-2024-thanks-to-renewables-hydrogen-efficiency
• Mark Beeson on ukraine-suffers-under-realism-s-pyrrhic-victory
• Peter Layton on time-and-troops-finite-supply-russia-s-army-ukraine
• Timothy Snyder on the-kremlins-formula-for-failure Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on question-how-cleft-is-ukraine-today
• Ed Wyatt on russia-s-effort-escape-diplomatic-isolation

Asia

• Adele Webb on how-marcos-family-could-rule-again-philippines
• Arrizaal Jaknanihan on stiffening-asean-spine-south-china-sea
• Khang Vu on why-now-timing-north-korea-s-icbm-test
• Geoffrey Till on order-sea-southeast-asia-s-maritime-security

Wonk

• Fabricated Knowledge on history-lesson-the-1980s-semiconductor Thanks Brad
• Tim Harford on why-do-some-great-ideas-just-fail-to-scale
• Nicholas Gruen on how-come-stoicism-is-suddenly-a-thing
• the conversable economist on brazils-pix-system-electronic-payments-for-67-in-a-year
• Sandwichman on kant-even
• noahopinion on nuclear-game-theory-and-its-limitations, war-got-weird
• David Walker on chinas-defeat-in-ukraine
• Uneasy Money on three-propagation-mechanisms-in-lucas-and-sargent
• Kerry Brown on war-represents-failure-diplomacy-it-pays-read-past-page-one
• David Eptstein on why-propaganda-works-the-illusory-truth-effect Thanks Brad

General

• Mark Adele on 5-must-read-books-about-russia-and-ukraine-our-expert-picks

Climate

• Real Climate on the-future-of-climate-modeling, issues-and-errors-in-a-new-scafetta-paper
• Stochastic trend on video-of-my-presentation-on-asymmetric-carbon-emissions

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• evolutionary psychology in economics
• the-examples-you-see-in-the-textbooks-are-not-representative-of-the-sorts-of-problems-you-see-in-the-real-world
  
• is-open-ai-cooking-the-books-on-gpt-3
  
• we-should-only-let-data-speak-for-themselves-when-they-have-learned-to-clean-themselves
  
• one-sided-journalism-and-the-fundamental-attribution-error
  
• Kaiser Fung on reclassifying-data-to-manufacture-statistics

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on algorithms keeping control

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• all-data-is-social
  
• steering-history
  

Vox Wonk

• economic-warfare-and-man-ur-olson-insights-great-power-conflict
  
• what-if-germany-cut-russian-energy
  
• search-wto-compatible-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism
  
• optimal-policy-acquisitions-potential-competitors-under-financial-constraints
  
• measuring-role-human-capital-structural-transformation
  
• sanctions-against-russian-war-ukraine-could-be-made-work
  
• residential-inflation-rise-pipeline
  
• conflict-empires-and-political-preferences
  
• why-paying-roubles-russian-gas-and-oil-might-matter
  
• impact-geopolitical-conflicts-trade-growth-and-innovation
  
• lessons-history-our-response-ukrainian-refugees
  
• how-tax-and-social-insurance-benefits-can-prevent-women-s-labour-participation-and-wage-growth
  
• labour-market-disadvantages-immigrant-women
  
• today-s-inflation-and-great-inflation-1970s
  
• how-solve-europe-s-russian-gas-conundrum-tariff
  
• reforming-european-fiscal-framework-increasing-compliance-not-flexibility
  
• geoff-harcourt-cambridge-economist-and-australian-patriot
  
• russias-war-against-ukraine-might-persistently-shift-global-supply-chains
  

A few thoughts on Ukraine

Without resorting to links here are some random thoughts on the situation in Ukraine.

• How come no-one knew how bad the Russian army Is Is it because like most bullies they only performed against someone who never pushed back
• Conversely how come the Ukrainian defence forces were so underestimated. Yes their fierce determination to defend their nation and their inspiring leader are reasons but only at the margin.
• How can Putin declare he has won and go away? He is running out of resources as the sanctions bite hard
• Can Russia ever intimate another nation again. Any nation similar to Ukraine merely has to get the right weapons and Russia will huff and puff
• It will take another Marshall plan to rebuild Ukraine
• Why not facilitate Russia into the market system alah China. The costs escalate when you want your people to have vastly increased living stands.

The budget is risky

 We are living in times close to if not at full employment. The budget last night did not change fiscal policy from last year. It is neither more expansionary nor has it become less expansionary. With interest rates almost at zero no-one is taking their foot off the accelerator.

As Richard Holden points out no attack on the structural deficit has been made. The Liberals are a large spending government, way above that made by the ALP when avoiding the GFC. They haven't even come close to getting to their high point as yet.

Inflation is more than likely to increase and thus interest rates are as well. the CBA has estimated the neutral rate is 1.25% so if the RBA has to adopt contractionary policy they will go much higher than that.

Australia must have a carbon tax

 Adrian Blundell-Wignall formerly of the RBA, OECD et al writes a good article entitled the case for introducing a carbon tax  (in Australia).

Does State polling errors predict federal election polling errors

 A wonderful article on the above topic by a blog I now read thanks to Mark the Ballot

Around the Traps 20/3/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Tim Nelson and Joel Gilmour on energy-bills-are-spiking-after-the-russian-invasion-we-should-have-doubled-down-on-renewables-years-ago
• Rob Mainwaring on liberals-brutal-loss-in-south-australia-reflects-the-fragmented-politics-of-the-centre-right
• Institutional Economics on oil-price-shocks-and-monetary-policy, governor-lowe-at-the-business-walkleys
• renew economy on fortescue-says-its-very-stretch-15m-tonne-green-hydrogen-targets-now-very-achievable, agl-says-energy-hubs-and-offshore-wind-could-bring-earlier-closure-of-coal-plants, australias-carbon-market-is-in-crisis
• Peter Martin on why-australias-reserve-bank-wont-hike-interest-rates-just-yet
• Peter Dean on the-morrison-government-wants-a-khaki-election-how-do-the-two-major-parties-stack-up-on-national-security
• Justin Brown on trade-policy-agenda-facing-new-drivers
• Greg Jericho on what-to-expect-in-australias-next-budget-a-tax-cut-thats-not-a-tax-cut
• Gabrielle Kuiper on virtual-power-plants-are-the-future-of-electricity-retailing

Northern America

• Brad De Long on first-six-episodes-of-us-inflation
• noahopinion on the-us-needs-a-latin-america-policy, when-will-the-fed-drop-the-hammer
• the conversable economist on schlesinger-on-the-quality-of-state-department-writing-during-the-kennedy-administration, inflation-many-prices-rising-or-just-a-few
• David French on republican-conspiracy-russia-ukraine
• Alex Samuels and Neil Lewis on how-white-victimhood-fuels-republican-politics
• Charles Gaba on weekly-update-covid-casedeath-rates-partisan-lean-vaccination-rate Thanks Brad
• Karen Dynan on what-is-needed-tame-us-inflation Thanks Brad
• Calculated Risk on distressing-gap-existing-and-new-home
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-voting-rights-shredder-wisconsin
• Linda Greenhouse on should-we-reform-the-court-supreme-court-linda-greenhouse
• Alex Tabarrok on what-operation-warp-speed-did-didnt-and-cant-do
• Andrew Prokop on ginni-thomas-texts
• Jeremy Stahl on watermarked-ballots-ginni-thomas-mark-meadows

Europe

• slow boring on taking-putins-ideas-seriously Thanks Brad
• Mathew Sussex on the-west-owes-ukraine-much-more-than-just-arms-and-admiration
• Peter Layton on scenarios-war-ukraine
• Robert Walddmann on why-is-germany-increasing-defence-spending
• stumbling and mumbling on the-politics-of-abstraction
• Robert Horvath on putins-fascists-the-russian-states-long-history-of-cultivating-homegrown-neo-nazis
• Mateo Szlapek-Sewillo on hungary-nears-election-brussels-and-moscow-will-be-watching
• noahopinion on putins-war-and-the-chaos-climbers, ukraines-economic-future
• John Quiggin on nuclear-power-and-the-ukraine-war
• Unpopular Front on goodbye-lenin Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on energy-prices-in-uk-and-france
• stumbling and mumbling on inflation-the-real-problem

Asia

• war on the rocks on ukraines-lessons-for-taiwan thanks Brad
• Adam Tooze on china-under-pressure Thanks Brad
• Rodger Shanahan on gulf-s-diversification-dilemma
• Martin Weiser on waiting-north-korea-escalate

Wonk

• Shannon Brincat on the-putin-problem-is-there-ever-a-case-to-kill-tyrants
• Sussanna Patton on does-quad-plus-add
• Tim Harford on why-did-we-stop-building-beautiful-neighborhoods
• Adam Posen on the-end-of-globalization thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-surprisingly-strong-sanctions
• Odd Wested on the-long-shadow-of-nuclear-war
• the time of monsters on the-politics-of-paranoia
• Magnes Lindes and George Wilkes on putin-the-psychology-behind-his-destructive-leadership-and-how-best-to-tackle-it-according-to-science
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-cryptocurrency-quietly-joins-new-world-order
• Lina Gong on logistical-challenge-responding-disaster

General

• Ashwin Swaminathan on could-i-have-had-covid-and-not-realised-it
• Daniel Flitton on madeleine-albright-i-have-come-long-way-so-i-must-be-frank

Climate

• Jodie Rummer and Scott Heron on adapt-move-or-die-repeated-coral-bleaching-leaves-wildlife-on-the-great-barrier-reef-with-few-options
• Quark Soup on both-of-earths-poles-blazing-hot
• Dana Bergstrom et al on record-smashing-heatwaves-are-hitting-antarctica-and-the-arctic-simultaneously-heres-whats-driving-them-and-how-theyll-impact-wildlife
• Paul Hardisty et al on saving-the-great-barrier-reef-these-recent-research-breakthroughs-give-us-renewed-hope-for-its-survival

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• people-are-complicated
  
• cleverly-brute-force
  
• sleep-cats-and-statistical-significance-this-one-hits-the-statistical-modeling-causal-inference-and-social-science-sweet-spot
  
• the-horseshoe-rears-its-ugly-head-once-more-lancet-edition
  
• pushing-back-at-pushing-back-at-generational-stereotypes
  
• could-the-so-called-fragility-index-be-useful-as-a-conceptual-tool-even-though-it-would-be-a-bad-idea-to-actually-use-it
  
• hes-a-devops-engineer-and-he-wants-to-set-some-thresholds-where-should-he-go-to-figure-out-what-to-do
  
• harvard-got-conned
  
• advice-for-the-government-on-communicating-uncertainty
  
• statschat on briefly
• Kaiser Fung on twin-peaks-an-energetic-exploration, the-fun-and-frustrations-of-seeking-context, manufacturing-statistics-us-news-style

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on from the compensated victims file

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• more-incompetent-than-neoliberal
  
• its-not-easy-being-green
  

Vox Wonk

• war-ukraine-financial-defence
  
• accounting-companies-value-creation-and-societal-impact
  
• corporate-legacy-debt-inflation-and-efficacy-monetary-policy
  
• ascent-crypto-assets-evolution-and-macro-financial-drivers
  
• carbon-pricing-and-cross-border-carbon-leakage-international-transport
  
• selection-surveys
  
• multilateralism-after-ukraine-invasion
  
• russian-sanctions-some-questions-and-answers
  
• major-future-economic-challenges
  
• productivity-dynamics-working-home
  
• hidden-costs-incentivising-later-retirement
  
• economics-and-politics-measures-stop-financing-russian-aggression-against-ukraine
  
• policy-and-sme-participation-public-procurement
  
• financial-concerns-and-marginal-propensity-consume
  
• global-climate-accelerator-and-financial-accelerator-clarifying-commonalities-and-implications-putin-s-war
  
• procurement-manipulation
  

My experience with Optus/ NBN

 Three weeks ago on Tuesday we lost our internet connection. This meant no internet, telephone or TV.

It took until Friday for the NBN to fix it. I only found out our wires were on the wrong pole!

On the Sunday I watched a bit of England V West Indies test. I noticed as I drove to church some people of NBN on the exact pole where our wires were.

Sure enough no internet when I got home. After phoning Optus various times we got another NBN technician to come and examine our house. We were told we were not an urgent case as my wife was forced to buy a dongle

One problem it was last Friday when my youngest son had his graduation which had been postponed for over a year. I was informed the technician would be here at 8 when I said no-one would be here at 10. He came at 12.15. Another visit was arranged on the Tuesday.  This came and went. When we again had to ring up. ( The phone call involved over a hour in time) we were told the technician had come and but could not get into the set of apartments. No we live in a house not a unit.

So after two weeks we eventually got another technician who eventually found it was the NBN line. It was just one of those things. No the technicians fiddling around on the pole had done nothing. It must have been the rain.

Aghhhhhhh

Kimberly Kitching

 Now that the funeral is over I am much more comfortable talking about the late Senator. She was no Robert Askin or Leo Port so there was nothing in her past that was crooked and so had to be brought up because few knew it.

Steve from Brisbane has a good article on her and the controversy  He has MORE

A few comments. What exactly are the allegations. I hear people waxing lyrical ( and not so lyrical) about the need for an inquiry. Exactly what would the inquiry be examining? No-one but no-one has said. I tried to ring 2GB yesterday to get them to say but was told no. In brief no longer being on a committee and not asking questions in the Senate is not bullying otherwise Kim Carr has a greater case.

Her friends have been leaking salacious gossip but knew those people who were accused could never properly respond before her funeral. Journalists were either taken for a ride unknowingly or were part of the political theatre. Either way these people show no taste and no class.

Kitching to my mind was a female Robert Ray ( and came from the same faction. He was never a great minister and she never showed she would be. However he was dynamiter ( with john Faulkner) in Senate Estimates. She had the potential to be the same. Potential, she wasn't anywhere near there as yet.

She had problems.

Her husband was a complete ratbag. He used to run a completely disreputable blog.

Clearly some in the ALP thought she was too close to some in the government.

Both problems could be overcome.

The SA Election

 The ALP won the state election in South Australia in a landslide. What has been unsatisfying is that no-one as yet can come up with a satisfactory explanation.

Both the government and the premier were competent. No Campbell Newmans to be seen anywhere.

It was said opening up the economy just as omicron came about was poor. Ambulance ramping was way too high. Indeed both these points could explode together however is this enough to cause a landslide? I doubt it. A win quite possibly but a landslide where there premier loses his seat!

We are led to believe the ALP  leader is one right out of the box however if so why was this not so blindingly obvious before the poll?

All in all we are lost for credible answers

Infrastructure spending has simply become pork barrelling

 The Premier think tank , perhaps the only think tank in Australia, the Grattan Institute has produced a report that examines proposals for infrastructure spending for both parties.

In the last election only ONE of the 71 project promises had a business case supported by Infrastructure Australia. 

Think the ALP is any different. Only TWO of their 61 had it as well.

That is a lot of wasted money.

Around the Traps 17/3/22

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Frank Bongornio on tax-cuts-covid-management-on-the-search-for-the-morrison-governments-legacy-so-far
• Mark the Ballot on newspoll-45-to-55-in-labors-favour
• Ross Gittins on blaming-states-for-national-policy-failures-wont-wash
• renew economy on south-australia-may-be-first-big-grid-in-world-to-go-without-synchronous-generation, australias-oldest-solar-farm-was-the-countrys-best-performing-in-february, aemo-defends-rapid-coal-closure-timelines-after-prodding-from-regulator, fund-says-australian-solar-farm-output-slumps-20-pct-below-budget-in-2021-prices-cannibalised, australian-electrolyser-breakthrough-promises-worlds-cheapest-green-hydrogen, australia-faces-serious-skills-shortage-on-road-to-becoming-renewable-superpower, australian-zero-carbon-exports-could-slash-emissions-across-asia-and-pacific
• John Freebairn on what-is-petrol-excise-and-why-does-australia-have-it-anyway
• Paul Burke et al on to-really-address-climate-change-australia-could-make-27-times-as-much-electricity-and-make-it-renewable
• John Pye et al on red-dirt-yellow-sun-green-steel-how-australia-could-benefit-from-a-global-shift-to-emissions-free-steel
• Adrian Blundell-Wignall on australia-our-politicians-have-lost-their-moral-compass-on-climate

Northern America

• James Hamilton  on oil-prices-and-inflation, oil-sanctions-and-recession
• new deal democrat on another-big-increase-in-consumer-prices-in-february
• renew economy on us-now-has-20-states-with-a-100-per-cent-renewables-target
• David Appell on governors-desantis-abbott-killed-people
• Julia Azari on how-republicans-are-thinking-about-trumpism-without-trump
• the conversable economist on prospects-for-inflation, when-small-groups-are-big-and-big-groups-are-small
• Brad De Long on no-the-fed-is-not-far-behind-the-curve
• Timothy Lee on theres-a-serious-risk-of-a-recession-in-2022 Thanks Brad
• the time of monsters on civil-war-games
• Benjamin Zala on washington-rediscovers-nuclear-responsibility-ukraine-crisis
• Anne Applebaum on russia-ukraine-senate-testimony-autocracy-kleptocrats
• Uneasy Money on wherein-i-try-to-calm-professor-blanchards-nerves
• noahopinion on us-state-capacity-is-actually-pretty-high
• David Reifschneider and David Wilcox on the case for a mildly optimistic view on inflation thanks Brad
• Dan Kennedy on republicans-have-a-putin-problem-and-the-media-need-to-stop-glossing-over-it Thanks Brad
• run75441 on higher-covid-death-rate-in-trump-states

Europe

• Ellen Ioannes on ukraine-poland-us-mig-fighter-jets-military-aid-escalation
• Tim Harford on putins-actions-make-no-sense-that-is-his-strength
• Mark Satta on putins-brazen-manipulation-of-language-is-a-perfect-example-of-orwellian-doublespeak
• Maris Rowe-McCulloch on why-russian-attacks-on-innocent-ukrainian-citizens-will-probably-intensify
• The time of monsters on is-putin-the-problem
• Jean Pisani-Ferry on europes-economic-response-russia-ukraine-war-will-redefine-its-priorities-and-future Thanks Brad
• Chad Brown on russias-war-ukraine-sanctions-timeline Thanks Brad
• Bulwark on russias-logistical-nightmare-will-keep-on-getting-worse Thanks Brad
• Dominique Fraser on russia-committing-atrocity-crimes-ukraine-not-genocide
• Fred Kaplan on a-bridge-too-far-not-one-inch-m-e-sarotte
• Fintan O'Toole on the-last-of-her-kind-chancellor-angela-merkel-marton

Asia

• Tammy Kim on exit-polls-in-seoul
• noahopinion on china-has-a-fateful-choice-to-make

Wonk

• Kruggers on credible-irresponsibility-revisited Thanks Brad
• James Dwyer on 3-ways-russia-has-shown-military-incompetence-during-its-invasion-of-ukraine
• David Ubilava on russias-war-on-ukraine-is-driving-up-wheat-prices-and-threatens-global-supplies-of-bread-meat-and-eggs
• John West on saving-democracy-russian-rage
• Adam Graycar on sustainable-catch-navigating-global-fisheries-crime
• noahopinion on dont-worry-about-de-dollarization, china-russia-and-the-inflation-situation
• sandwichman on marxs-most-realistic-most-amazing-insight
• Mainly Macro on denying-national-self-determination
• Tyler Cowen on why-isnt-crypto-an-effective-hedge
• Uneasy Money on eight-recurring-ideas-in-my-studies-in-the-history-of-monetary-theory
• Rowan Nicholson on the-international-court-of-justice-has-ordered-russia-to-stop-the-war-what-does-this-ruling-mean
• Ben Scott on we-need-stop-talking-about-grey-zone

General

• Keiran Dolin on the-tug-of-the-tale-steven-carroll-reimagines-the-life-and-times-of-t-s-eliot-and-his-first-wife-vivienne

Climate

• Moyhu on giss-february-global-temperature-down-from-january
• Peter Sinclair on temperature-spikes-in-arctic
• the conversable economist on technology-and-carbon-emissions

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• auto-accidents-and-isolation-and-disruption
• dst-controversy
  
• what-your-astrological-sign-can-tell-you-about-your-health
  
• economic-fables-by-ariel-rubinstein
  
• lysenko-hes-baaaaack
  
• the-100-percent-figure-was-rounded-up
  
• the-spread-of-misinformation
  

Econometrics

• nutin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• ukraine-war-has-raised-long-term-inflation-expectations
  
• wartime-power-of-central-banks
  
• robots-economic-development
  
• proposal-central-fiscal-capacity-emu
  
• inflation-and-fed-s-new-framework-time-covid-19
  
• impact-social-housing-population-ireland-1911
  
• government-procurement-and-macroeconomic-outcomes
  
• collapse-clean-development-mechanism
  
• supply-disruptions-added-inflation-undermined-recovery-2021
  
• public-finances-and-climate-change-post-pandemic-era
  
• geographical-differences-standard-living-across-us-cities
  
• how-tight-are-us-labour-markets
  
• war-ukraine-financial-defence
  

Two posts on Ukraine war

 Two really interesting posts on the war Russia started on Ukraine.

Firstly we have Jeet Heer from the time of monsters with is-putin-the-problem. Check out the worrying video.

Next we have Noah Smith from noahopinion on china-has-a-fateful-choice-to-make. Okay it is a bit of a stretch but it is good.

Neil young with Booker T and the MGs

 NBN problems persist.

Here is Neil Young joining Booker T and the MGs and doing All along the watchtower.

Enjoy

I have NBN problems

 Last week we did not have the internet or the phone from Wednesday to late Friday. The same has occurred from Sunday morning.

Life without the internet is very boring remembering that Kayo and Netflix are on line products. Add in doing things such as banking and you feel helpless and the Library becomes a lifeline.

aghhhhh!

Around the Traps 10/3/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps. No internet for some time this week so I could have missed some articles.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on not-being-entirely-straightforward
• Ross Gittins on the-plague-hasnt-wounded-economy-but-the-boom-won't last, it-will-take-more-that-faith-to-keep-the-economy-growing, why-prime-ministers-do-have-to-hold-a-hose
• Institutional economics on the-best-governor-the-rba-never-had
• Mark Gibbs on weather-forecasts-wont-save-us-we-must-pre-empt-monster-floods-years-before-they-hit
• John Quiggin on one-in-1-000-years-old-flood-probabilities-no-longer-hold-water, global-heating-and-the-flood-disaster
• Adrain Esteman on covid-pandemic-2nd-anniversary-3-things-we-got-wrong-and-3-things-to-watch-out-for
• renew economy on how-to-value-transmission-why-marinus-has-less-chance-of-covering-costs-than-basslink, 

Northern America

• the time of monsters on the-republican-divide-on-russia
• Brad De Long on a-great-labor-report
• Menzie Chinn on employment-in-february
• New Deal Democrat on february-jobs-report-a-big-win
• Erin Hurley on ukraine-united-states-re-establishes-its-credentials
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-05-in-february
• noahopinion on will-high-oil-prices-cause-a-recession

Europe

• Victor Abramowicz on squaring-circle-ukraine
• Jane McAdam on europe-triggers-temporary-protection-ukraine-war-refugees
• Lili Loufbourow on russian-invasion-ukraine-mediated-war-the-west
• Jeremy Stahl on doj-prosecution-donald-trump-roger-stone
• Barkley Rosser on fascist-traditionalism-and-putin
• noahopinion on how-are-the-big-sanctions-hurting-russia, the-ukraine-war-and-the-price-of-bread
• the time of monsters on putins-goon-squad
• James Dwyer on how-do-anti-tank-missiles-work-and-how-helpful-might-they-be-for-ukraines-soldiers
• Yasmin Serhan on putin-nato-finland-sweden-support-ukraine
• Tim Judah on holding-on-in-irpin-ukraine-judah
• Menzie Chinn on the-ruble-convertible-no-longer
• Mainly Macro on information-wars
• coppolla comment on sleepwalking-into-war
• Nikola Mikovic on azerbaijan-and-russian-invasion-ukraine

Asia

• Matthew Brooker on did-china-s-xi-jinping-get-played-by-putin-on-ukraine Thanks Brad
• Tony Walker on has-xi-jinping-miscalculated-in-aligning-himself-with-vladimir-putin
• Khang Vu on moon-yoon-will-korean-peninsula-see-fire-and-fury-return
• Simon Nicholas on chinas-peak-steel-emissions-shift-unlikely-to-delay-carbon-reductions
• Purva Jain on renewable-energy-can-insulate-india-against-future-fuel-price-shocks

Wonk

• Slow boring on im-not-convinced-by-the-new-lab-leak Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on interview-andrew-gelman-statistician
• Nick Gruen on will-you-join-me-in-the-alt-centre, theorisation-reinventing-orwell-and-smothering-him-in-verbiage
• the conversable economist on fighting-in-a-canoe-thomas-schelling-redux
• Uneasy money on robert-lucas-and-the-pretense-of-science
• Maria Varaki on ukraine-what-the-rules-of-war-tell-us-about-the-deliberate-targeting-of-civilians
• Bruce Robertson on russias-invasion-of-ukraine-affecting-global-gas-demand-with-lng-unable-to-deliver-energy-security

General

• Tim Harford on how-to-make-resolutions-stick

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on ignoring-the-economists
• climate citizen on the most extreme weather disasters in Australia
• moyhu on february-global-surface-templs-down
• Jonathan Mingle on reasons-for-concern
• Skeptical Science on what the latest science says about Antarctica and sea level rise

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• statistics-is-hard-etc-again
  
• who-whips-the-whippers-an-infinite-regress-of-political-economy
  
• own-your-design-choices-we-should-express-findings-in-paper-titles-by-referring-to-what-was-measured-rather-than-the-general-construct-that-was-measured
  
• an-investigation-of-the-facts-behind-columbias-u-s-news-ranking
  
• elasticities-are-typically-between-0-and-1
  
• how-to-think-about-the-large-estimated-effects-from-taking-an-ethnic-studies-class-in-high-school
  
• sampling-design-and-analysis-third-edition-by-sharon-lohr
  
• how-to-think-about-the-large-estimated-effects-from-taking-an-ethnic-studies-class-in-high-school
  
• Kaiser Fung on how-definitions-drive-outcomes, twin-peaks-an-energetic-exploration

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle

• grasping-the-intangible-nettles
  
• facing-up-to-disorder
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• religious-education-school-affects-students-lives-long-run
  
• extraterritorial-sanctions-stick-and-carrot
  
• little-evidence-too-much-finance
  
• next-fed-tightening-cycle-not-necessarily-bad-news-emerging-markets
  
• interest-rate-expectations-shape-federal-reserve-s-path-lift
  
• how-reconcile-increased-green-public-investment-needs-fiscal-consolidation
  
• cutting-russia-s-fossil-fuel-exports-short-term-pain-long-term-gain
  
• how-data-privacy-regulation-shaped-firm-performance-globally
  
• sanctions-war-and-systemic-risk-1914-and-2022
  
• economic-consequences-war-ukraine-igm-forum-survey
  

A few different thoughts on the floods

 The floods have been horrific. Thousands of houses and hotel rooms are gone for a long time. It will take a long time to construct any sort of housing to replace them. Thus where are people going to live? In tents? Worse where will all the tradies needed for the construction live whilst they attempt to build all these houses? Where is all the waste going to go?

When are we going to work out where people can live? A lot of these people were not insured because of the cost. This will increase after the floods. Are people for the government really happy to pick up the tab on this. We have now seen two 1 in a 100 ( or 1%) events in two years!

If governments successfully use mitigation techniques then all is good but this is unlikely. We really need a good think about this before we jump in and then repeat the same mistakes we have made in the past.

Shane Warne

 Shane Warne dies of a heart attack on the weekend one day after Rod Marsh died of the same thing. you expect a man of 74 to die of a heart attack if it is a biggy. you rarely expect a amn of 52 to do the same thing.

Shane Warne was the greatest spinner in the history of the game. Ironically he had little variety. He basically bowled legspinners. Beautiful well flighted legspinners. He rarely bowled a googly. His flipper was a bewdy but again springly used. although he talked up a whole heap of deliveries he had, invariably he invented a new one before a test series, it was all bulldust.

He could inspire team mates and was a good leader when given the chance although off field activities meant he would never captain Australia.

Off the field he was called a larrikin. I think that is what we call womanisers here. He treated women terribly and marriage meant nothing to him.The less said about his foundation the better.

In some ways he was similar to Ian Botham. When young he could get away with a big night and play well the next day. As he got older it got much harder. Like most womaniser he was vain. Fancy getting a face lift to try and keep looking young.

He did not have any sort of intellect and in terms of cricket I rarely heard him say anything of interest but he did understand what brand Shane Warne was. He was very street smart and so made a lot of money.

In the end he got away with things on the cricket field he should not have. He never understood showing respect to your opponent which is essential if the spirit of cricket is to succeed. He also never had a McGrath moment which changed his behaviour.

In all a great shame.

Around the Traps 3/3/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps. All Ukraine articles under Europe

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Dennis Muller on scare-mongering-on-china-is-a-threat-to-our-democracy-and-responsible-media-must-guard-against-it
• Ian Ramsay on agl-said-no-to-an-5-billion-bid-but-it-isnt-over-heres-how-takeover-bids-work
• Jessica Collins on australia-was-quick-sanction-moscow-why-not-myanmar
• Daniel Flitton on keeping-australian-uranium-out-russian-hands-and-bombs
• Ross Gittins on heres-novel-idea-australia-needs-more-competition-not-less, everyone-else-has-inflation-problem-why-not-us-as-well, the-climate-change-changes-politicians-don't-want-to-talk-about
• renew economy on nsw-looks-to-quadruple-size-of-first-renewable-energy-zone-after-eraring-closure, forrest-outlines-plans-for-3-billion-wind-solar-and-battery-hub-in-queensland
• Brendan Mackay et al on new-ipcc-report-shows-australia-is-at-real-risk-from-climate-change-with-impacts-worsening-future-risks-high-and-wide-ranging-adaptation-needed
• Bruce Glavovic on ipcc-report-coastal-cities-are-sentinels-for-climate-change-its-where-our-focus-should-be-as-we-prepare-for-inevitable-impacts
• Peter Martin on as-petrol-prices-rise-will-carbon-emissions-come-down
• Greg Jericho on dont-get-too-excited-by-australias-rebounding-economy-its-a-distorted-snapshot-of-the-true-picture
• Anna Malos and Simon Graham on australia-could-get-to-net-zero-emissions-much-quicker-than-2050-if-our-politics-was-a-force-for-change-heres-how
• John Hawkins on wednesdays-gdp-numbers-are-impressive-but-they-are-for-the-december-quarter-when-we-were-bouncing-back-from-delta
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-australias-hairdressing-based-economic-recovery-cant-last
• Corinne Unger et al on victims-of-nsw-and-queensland-floods-have-lodged-60-000-claims-but-too-many-are-underinsured-heres-a-better-way
• Ben Scott and Richard Maude on australia-and-crisis-europe-threats-and-opportunities
• Johanna Bowyer on australia-erarings-2025-exit-and-mike-cannon-brookes-brookfield-proposed-agl-takeover-could-reduce-power-bills

Northern America

• the time of monsters on blame-america
• Brad De Long on the-thin-gruel-of-monetary-policy
• Nicola Narea on texas-primary-results-2022-abbott-beto-paxton-bush-cesar-cisneros
• Jeremy Stahl on volodymyr-zelensky-trump-putin-ukraine-resistance
• David Frum on biden-economic-nationalism-state-of-the-union
• the conversable economist on college-completion-rates

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on on-russian-international-vs-foreign-exchange-reserves
• Paul Haskell-Dowland on as-russia-wages-cyber-war-against-ukraine-heres-how-australia-and-the-rest-of-the-world-could-suffer-collateral-damage
• Stefan Wolff on ukraine-invasion-what-the-west-needs-to-do-now-expert-view
• Ellie Martus and Susan Rimmer on will-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-push-europe-towards-energy-independence-and-faster-decarbonisation
• William Partlett on what-can-the-west-do-to-help-ukraine-it-can-start-by-countering-putins-information-strategy
• Juliette McIntyre  et al on is-international-law-powerless-against-russian-aggression-in-ukraine-no-but-its-complicated
• Christopher Michaelson on what-are-sanctions-do-they-ever-work-and-could-they-stop-russias-invasion-of-ukraine
• Stephen Hamilton on just-short-of-nuclear-the-latest-financial-sanctions-will-cripple-russias-economy
• Jeffrey Veidlinger on putins-claim-to-rid-ukraine-of-nazis-is-especially-absurd-given-its-history
• Anton Oleinik on would-vladimir-putin-actually-be-able-to-rule-ukraine
• Alexey Muraviev on how-the-russian-military-remade-itself-into-a-modern-efficient-and-deadly-fighting-machine
• Bermant Talant on russia-losing-information-war
• Ian Hill on putin-s-hubris-foreshadows-tragedy-ukrainians-and-russians-alike
• Ellen Ioannes on ukraine-invasion-putin-russia-baffling-war-strategy
• Peter Rutland on ordinary-russians-are-already-feeling-the-economic-pain-of-sanctions-over-ukraine-invasion
• Mathew Sussex on ukraine-what-are-putin-s-options-now
• full stack economics on five-reasons-the-sanctions-are-working Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on why-price-of-johnson-staying-in-power-will-cost-more-lives
• Frank Jotzo on russia-s-war-will-hasten-drive-clean-energy-security
• noahopinion on beyond-sanctions-an-off-ramp-for-postputin-russia
• Alvina Hoffman on ukraine-what-anti-war-protesters-in-russia-risk-by-speaking-out
• Matt Fitzpatrick on remembering-the-past-looking-to-the-future-how-the-war-in-ukraine-is-changing-europe
• Ian Kemish on The-half-hour-that-fundamentally-split-Germany-from-Russia
• Khalid Koser on how-long-will-europe-s-generosity-towards-ukraine-s-refugees-last
• Timothy Snyder on ivan-ilyin-putins-philosopher-of-russian-fascism
• Tim Judah on ukraine-on-the-brink
• Masha Gessen on how-putin-wants-russians-to-see-the-war-in-ukraine
• Sheila Fitzpatrick on ukraine-as-a-borderland-a-brief-history-of-ukraines-place-between-europe-and-russia
• Frank Ledwidge on ukraine-war-what-are-russias-strategic-aims-and-how-effectively-are-they-achieving-them
• Cynthia Hooper on russias-invasion-of-ukraine-has-kremlin-battling-for-hearts-and-minds-at-home
• Stephen Hamilton on russian-sanctions-are-biting-harder-than-it-could-have-imagined-and-itll-get-worse
• Tim Harcourt on back-ussr-surprises-russia-ukraine-conflict
• Roland Rajah on sanctions-bite-how-dangerously
• stumbling and mumbling on the-same-old-mistakes
• Christopher Bluth on ukraine-war-why-nato-is-refusing-to-enforce-a-no-fly-zone
• Stephen Fortesque on as-the-ukraine-war-drags-on-how-secure-will-putins-hold-on-power-remain

Asia

• Aarti Betigeri on indias-row-over-hijabs-about-optics-opportunity
• noahopinion on how-will-russias-war-affect-china

Wonk

• Tim Harford on hard-truths-about-the-gender-pay-gap
• noahopinion on the-big-sanctions-a-quick-explainer
• the conversable economist on dangers-of-high-global-debt
• Institutional Economics on sanctions-are-the-least-bad-option-against-putins-aggression
• Alistair Milne on swift-ejecting-russia-is-largely-symbolic-heres-why
• John Quiggin on what-if-trump-wins-again
• Mark Webber and Nicola Fasola on ukraine-war-what-are-the-risks-that-russia-will-turn-to-its-nuclear-arsenal
• Marianne Hanson on what-are-thermobaric-bombs-and-why-should-they-be-banned
• Ben Saul on civilians-are-being-killed-in-ukraine-so-why-is-investigating-war-crimes-so-difficult
• Andrea Carson on fact-checking-can-actually-harm-trust-in-media-new-research
• Sandwichman on war-waste-and-myth-of-progress

General

• Sanjaya Senanayake on how-does-omicron-compare-with-delta-heres-what-we-know-about-infectiousness-symptoms-severity-and-vaccine-protection
• Thomas the Think Engine on how-to-make-money-from-powerball-hint-sell-the-tickets-dont-buy-them
• Maria on crimea

Climate

• Judy Lawrence et al on ipcc-report-this-decade-is-critical-for-adapting-to-inevitable-climate-change-impacts-and-rising-costs
• Mark Howden et al on mass-starvation-extinctions-disasters-the-new-ipcc-reports-grim-predictions-and-why-adaptation-efforts-are-falling-behind
• Skeptical Science on IPCC report
• and Then Theres Physics on moral-models

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• americans-satisfaction-with-their-personal-lives-and-the-direction-of-the-u-s
  
• did-chinese-laborers-on-the-yangtze-pay-someone-to-whip-them-and-why-cant-political-scientists-and-economists-resist-telling-this-evidence-free-story
  
• priors-for-meta-analysis
  
• surgisphere-is-back
  
• what-is-spatial-epidemiology-anyway
  
• garden-of-etc-etc-duality-between-multilevel-models-and-multiple-comparisons-adjustments
  
• god-is-present-in-the-sweeping-gestures-but-the-devil-is-in-the-details
  
• should-a-dogs-sniff-be-enough-to-convict-a-person-of-murder
  
• where-do-design-freedoms-fall-in-the-list-of-things-experimentalists-should-be-wary-of
  
• biology-as-a-cumulative-science-and-the-relevance-of-this-idea-to-replication
  
• yulings-talk-from-mixture-model-to-continuous-model-extension-to-operator-based-probabilistic-inference
  
• biology-as-a-cumulative-science-and-the-relevance-of-this-idea-to-replication
  
• statschat on what-are-the-odds, fair-comparisons, density-trends
• Kaiser Fung on how-to-commit-a-professional-foul-in-statistics, how-definitions-drive-outcomes

Econometrics

• freakometrics on a fair pricing model
• no hesitations on new-and-novel-arch-model-appication

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• systems-and-choices
  
• firms-and-households
  

Vox Wonk

• private-equity-industry-new-interest-rate-environment
  
• misallocation-explains-worse-management-among-mexican-firms
  
• inflation-market-power-and-price-controls-igm-forum-survey
  
• global-financial-risk-factors-and-sovereign-risk
  
• historical-gender-discrimination-does-not-explain-comparative-western-european-development
  
• shared-responsibility-and-emission-reduction-targets
  
• post-2008-boom-foreign-currency-corporate-bonds
  
• prospects-global-economy-after-covid-19
  
• demand-supply-imbalance-during-covid-19-pandemic
  
• wages-and-profit-shifting
  
• integration-global-value-chains-might-not-increase-exposure-risk-after-all
  
• indirect-savings-public-procurement-centralisation
  
• key-features-ecb-s-new-monetary-policy-strategy
  
• religious-education-school-affects-students-lives-long-run
  
• rationales-and-social-cover