Not Trampis: February 2022

Monday, 28 February 2022

IPPC Report

Two great articles on the report plus links to the report.

Sunday, 27 February 2022

the Ukraine situation

here are some great articles on what is occurring in the Ukraine.

As I see it Putin overestimated how good his army was, he has underestimated the costs involved, he has grossly underestimated the Ukrainian people. Putin looks as stupid as Trump at present and if things do not swing Russia's way a number of even worse things could occur.

I do predict that Ukraine will be turned into a pancake. Could this be the beginning of the end of Putin?

Thursday, 24 February 2022

Around the Traps 25/2/22

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Ausssie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

John Blaxland on morrison-and-dutton-should-beware-the-sword-they-wield-against-labor-on-china-is-double-edged, explainer-what-was-the-chinese-laser-attack-about-and-why-does-it-matter
Croaking Cassandra on a-deteriorating-institution, misleading, the-monetary-policy-statement, frankly-simply-daft
Ross Gittins on unlike-media-econocrats-in-no-great-interest-in-raising-interest-rates, interest-rates-wont-rise-until-wages-are-rising
renew economy on eraring-closure-will-result-in-more-wind-solar-and-batteries-and-less-gas, cannon-brookes-unstoppable-billions-pierce-the-bubble-of-fossil-fuel-denial, cannon-brookes-says-agl-bid-may-be-unicorn-for-cheaper-faster-energy-transition
Institutional economics on the-case-for-forward-guidance, wages-growth-accelerates-but-still-dissapoints
Bruce Mountain on the-battle-for-agl-heralds-a-new-dawn-for-australian-electricity
Peter Martin on this-pointless-1-080-tax-break-should-have-ended-years-ago-but-has-become-hard-to-stop
Sarah Kendall on why-australias-tough-national-security-laws-cannot-stop-foreign-interference-in-our-elections
Melissa Tyler on transforming-australian-diplomacy-climate-leadership
Greg Jericho on real-wages-in-australia-have-tanked-and-cant-be-hidden-by-the-coalition
Abul Rizvi on australia-is-creating-an-underclass-of-exploited-farm-workers-unable-to-speak-up
Taimor Sohail and Jan Zika on climate-change-is-warping-our-fresh-water-cycle-and-much-faster-than-we-thought
Daniel Cass on why-the-australian-government-should-welcome-mike-cannon-brookes-plan-to-takeover-agl
Richard Holden on vital-signs-stealth-tax-rises-are-eating-into-your-income-but-we-know-the-solution

Northern America

noahopinion on the-rejection-of-bidenomics
the conversable economist on did-antitrust-really-used-to-be-so-tough
Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-justices-not-honest-amy-coney-barrett-notre-dame-abortion-voting-rights
Alex Tabarrok on will-our-military-state-fail-us
Zacck Beachamp on martin-luther-king-jr-political-philosophy-brandon-terry
David Frum on energy-crisis-russia-gas
the time of monsters on putin-aint-woke
No more Mr nice blog on memify-it-democrats Thanks Brad
Alexander Vindman on ukraine-russia-war-nato-biden-deterrence
Very Serious on rick-scott-just-gave-a-huge-gift Thanks Brad
the overshoot on how-should-the-federal-reserve-tighten Thanks Brad

Europe

Alexy Muraviev on why-vladimir-putin-is-so-confident-in-his-ukraine-strategy-he-has-a-trump-card-in-china
Ian Hill on putin-s-choice
Danniel Flitton on putin-seeks-rewrite-history
Robin Wright on putin-launches-his-invasion-of-ukraine
noahopinion on the-economic-consequences-of-a-russia-ukraine-war
Barkley Rosser on the-minsky-moment-in-eastern-ukraine, vladimir-v-putin-loses-his-mind-and-becomes-a-war-criminal
Zack Beauchamp on putin-ukraine-nazi-russia-speech-declare-war
Ara Maria-Jailer et al on eu-gas-diversity-of-supply-or-diversity-of-routes
The French Press on were-all-ukrainians-now Thanks Brad

Asia

Adam Simpson and Juliette Mcintyre on it-s-mistake-allow-myanmar-s-junta-appear-rohingya-case
Nic Bisley on china-and-ukraine-crisis

Wonk

Tim Harford on is-inflation-worse-for-the-poorest-households-incredibly-weve-decided-its-fine-not-to-know-the-answer
David Tuffley on twitter-for-the-right-a-look-at-truth-social-trumps-ethically-dubious-social-media-platform
Ingrid Robeyns on limitarianism-a-philosophical-dispute
Rowan Dickinson on how-russias-recognition-of-breakaway-parts-of-ukraine-breached-international-law-and-set-the-stage-for-invasion
coppolla comment on the-secs-bitcoin-etf-standoff
Ian Lowe on limitless-power-arriving-too-late-why-fusion-wont-help-us-decarbonise
the conversable economist on global-plastics
Uneasy Money on interest-on-reserves-and-credit-deadlock
David Adam on Covid's true death toll thanks Brad

General

Chris James and Yu Liu on jupiter-saturn-uranus-neptune-why-our-next-visit-to-the-giant-planets-will-be-so-important-and-just-as-difficult
Thomas the Think Engine on should-you-play-powerball-the-three-levels-of-naivety-plus-one-bonus-level

Climate

Graeme Readfearn and Adam Morton on antarctic-sea-ice-falls-to-lowest-level-since-measurements-began-in-1979
Dylan McConnell et al on energy-poverty-in-the-climate-crisis-what-australia-and-the-european-union-can-learn-from-each-other
Skeptical Science on climate change dampens economic growth
Open Mind on sea-level-denial
Donna Lu on climate-change-is-intensifying-earths-water-cycle-at-twice-the-predicted-rate-research-shows
undark on its-time-we-stop-listening-to-economists-on-climate-change Thanks Brad

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Tuesday, 22 February 2022

What is Putin up to?

Okay here are two great articles from the Lowy Institute on the topic.

My view is Putin is no idiot so invading Ukraine would be very costly economically, socially, militarily.

Again my guess is simply recognising the two breakaway states will be enough. He knows Ukraine wants no part with him and distrusts him.

The West should have done something better when Russia invaded the Ukraine and took their territory previously. He can now walk away and say he has won.

I should have added China will be looking closely here. Just remember however the USA has said it will come to Taiwan's defence if any country attacks them. This is not the case with Ukraine

Monday, 21 February 2022

the Bid for AGL

Here are two articles on the attempted takeover of AGL.

Bef ore commenting on this story I should add something from yesterday. Origin is going to have a 24/7 battery. Two things follow from this.

Origin has plans to develop a lot more renewable energy. They simply have not specified this as yet. Batteries only work when there is excess energy!
This will be the first 24/7 battery.

The attempted takeover is predicated on getting out of coal fired power. This is because it is highly expensive and loses money during the day because of rooftop power. ( see solar duck curve)

Renewables are very cheap and getting cheaper. That is how they shall make money.

That is can do capitalism I like

Sunday, 20 February 2022

The Closure of Eraring

Origin has announced the forthcoming closure of the Eraring coal fired power stations.

Here are a number of articles on it or related.

Eraring was always going to close early. As you can read it is the highest cost coal fired power station. It is a victim of the solar duck curve. The only problem here compared to say Liddell is AGL clearly stated how they were going to build up capacity . Origin merely stated in general terms what they are attempting to do.

Both AGL and Origin saw what occurred when Hazelwood closed down . AGL therefore in their press release were highly specific in what they would do. Hence AEMO is not concerned. with Origin we have to go on trust.

Thursday, 17 February 2022

Around the Traps 18/2/22

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Ross Gittins on can-we-believe-great-news-on-unemployment, boring-auditors-general-our-last-defence-against-dodgy-governments
renew economy on stop-pretending-governments-urged-to-come-clean-on-early-coal-closures, australia-is-falling-behind-clean-energy-investment-shackled-by-outdated-rules, duck-curves-and-droughts-what-does-the-future-hold-for-wind-and-solar-in-the-nem, snowy-hydros-awkward-gymnastics-to-claim-kurri-kurri-gas-plant-will-have-minus-emissions, stunning-solar-milestone-as-australia-passes-25gw-mark, australias-biggest-wind-and-battery-project-lands-equity-and-turbine-supply-deals, tesla-says-new-gas-generators-no-longer-rational-batteries-are-smarter-and-cheaper, eraring-coal-plant-to-close-in-2025-as-origin-energy-accelerates-coal-exit, how-the-solar-duck-curve-gave-australias-biggest-coal-generator-an-early-retirement
John Quiggin on theres-never-been-a-better-time-for-australia-to-embrace-the-4-day-week
Alison Reeve and Tony Wood on highly-exaggerated-experts-debunk-morrison-government-claim-of-53-000-fewer-jobs-from-coal-and-gas-ban
Dennis Muller on too-much-sugar-not-enough-spice-60-minutes-morrison-interview-was-not-journalism-it-was-confected-pap
Josh Roose on how-freedom-rally-protesters-and-populist-right-wing-politics-may-play-a-role-in-the-federal-election
Peter Martin on australia-cut-unemployment-faster-than-anyone-predicted-why-stop-now
Claire Higgins and Regina Jeffries on with-australia-reopening-its-borders-to-tourists-why-are-thousands-of-refugees-still-waiting-for-entry
Greg Jericho on interest-rate-rises-will-drive-australias-election-campaign-and-may-come-bang-in-the-middle-of-it
Amy Maguire on governments-bid-for-an-enhanced-character-test-is-unnecessary-and-unlikely-to-pass-before-the-election-anyway
Danielle Chubb ands Ian McAllister on elections-are-rarely-decided-by-security-and-defence-issues-but-china-could-make-2022-different
Croaking Cassandra on expertise-and-the-mpc
Graeme Readfearn on how-much-would-a-coal-and-gas-project-moratorium-really-cost-nsw-and-queensland
Richard Holden on vital-signs-unemployment-steady-at-4-2-but-it-will-need-to-go-lower-still-to-lift-wages
Chris Briggs on australias-largest-coal-plant-will-close-7-years-early-but-theres-still-no-national-plan-for-coals-inevitable-demise
Johanna Bowyer on early-eraring-coal-plant-closure-highlights-future-of-energy-system-is-renewables-and-storage

Northern America

Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-senate-confirmation-ketanji-brown-jackson-leondra-kruger-michelle-childs
Peter Sinclair on one-year-after-texas-blackout-fears-remain-headwinds-increase-for-gas
noahopinion on last-war-brain
Geoffrey Skelley on have-latinos-really-moved-toward-the-republican-party
Molly Elmstead on fauci-gain-of-function-wuhan
Russell Berman on gerrymandering-new-york-republicans-democrats
Laurence Tribe on politicians-in-robes-justice-breyer
Robert Waldmann on us-real-wage-growth-during-the-pandemic
Bulwark on why-the-rnc-is-obsessed-with-liz Thanks Brad
Jonathan Malloy on understanding-canadas-crisis-has-trumpism-arrived-or-are-people-just-tired-of-pandemic-restrictions
new deal democrat on a-note-on-producer-prices-and-possibly-cooling-inflation
the conversable economist on the-inaccuracy-of-inflation-expectations
the time of monsters on a-tale-of-two-trucker-stories

Europe

David Van on europe-can-t-pass-buck-ukraine
Berment Talant on kazakhstan-s-longtime-leader-out-but-regime-he-built-remains
stumbling and mumbling on the-puzzle-of-media-influence, how-to-shrink-the-state
Menzie Chinn on russia-fx-reserves-and-external-pressures-in-the-event-of-war
noahopinion on if-putin-backs-off-ukraine-who-wins-and-who-loses

Asia

the conversable economist on indias-economy-the-satellite-photo-tour
Aristyo Darmawan on joe-biden-s-new-indo-pacific-strategy-view-southeast-asia

Wonk

Lavina Lee on the-quad-has-a-strategy-to-counter-china-and-russia-be-a-force-for-global-good-without-ideological-warfare
Ullrich Ecker and Toby Prike on we-know-politicians-lie-but-do-we-care
Tim Harford on is-inflation-worse-for-the-poorest-households-incredibly-weve-decided-its-fine-not-to-know-the-answer
noahopinion on inflation-is-forgetting, does-china-think-long-term-while-USA-thinks-short trem, nfts-are-just-the-beginning-of-the-crypto-wealth-tax
Mainly Macro on no-one-should-be-impartial-when-it-comes-to-defending-democracy
the conversable economist on the-pandemic-as-global-financial-shock-wdr-2022

General

Alex Tabarrok on heavy-wears-the-crown-and-the-kohinoor

Climate

Rupert Sutherland and Laia Elegret on oceans-are-better-at-storing-carbon-than-trees-in-a-warmer-future-ocean-carbon-sinks-could-help-stabilise-our-planet
Moyhu on giss-january-global-temperature-up-by-.07
David Schissel on Small modular reactors

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

Freakometrics on the equity of machine learning in insurance
No Hesitations on deep-neural-nets-with-long-short-term-memory

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

an-economist-in-the-real-world

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 16 February 2022

Scott Morrison is not fit to be PM

We have had in recent times the government trying to manufacture an argument that the Chinese communist party is in league with the ALP. we have even had talk about Manchurian candidates.

We have had the present head of ASIO speak out on this

We also had a former head of ASIO , Dennis Richardson, speak even more forcefully.

In essence they are saying weaponizing national security only helps China and thus it very bad for national security.

That Scott Morrison continues to prosecute such an argument when it is clearly against national security and for the basest of political motives shows he is completely unfit to be PM. I hope the voters see it this way. Some academics examine this.

So this is all unpreceded. We have NEVER had both the current and a previous head of ASIO criticising what a Government id doing, Indeed almost anyone connected with national security has heavily criticised the government. Will they stop? No because it is the only electoral strategy they have and to hell with its detrimental affect on national security.

THIS article is on the money

Tuesday, 15 February 2022

the RBA needs to raise rates

Interest rates need to be raised NOW!

Currently the official cash rate is 0.1%. Perfectly understandable if a lockdown has put the economy into a deep recession. however we are no longer there. Unemployment is just above 4%.

Therefore interest rates need to come back to 'normal' levels. We do not need to create a housing bubble nor make it near impossible to get into the housing market for people who are either renting or living with their parents.

Just to make it perfectly plain I am not saying interest rates need to go to restrictive levels yet merely go to neutral levels.

Monday, 14 February 2022

ASIO being too cute by half

We had ASIO warning that foreign countries were trying to interfere with our election process. We then had leaks saying ASIO had stopped some candidates being pre-selected by the ALP. We even had a puppeteer A businessman who had strong links to Chine.( wow I wonder who that is) who had money lined up to help these candidates

Whoa there boy. Say what.

First of all neither Albo nor the ALP NSW General secretary knew anything about this. This is very strange. More so when you realise Leaders of parties take a VERY close interest in who the candidates are in seats they believe they can win.

So ASIO moved in and 'forced said potential candidates to withdraw' from the pre-selection. It is impossible to think anything else.

Sorry but I do know what occurs in winning a pre-selection in either party. It involves moving to that electorate well before you wish to stand. sometimes this merely involves assuming when the local member will resign. You then ingratiate yourself with the movers and shakers of the dominant faction. This involves a lot of time and effort. you also involve yourself in the community. This can be the local P&C, Sports associations etc. Even after all this you are still on a knife edge on whether you will win pre-selection. The Leader might bring in a 'star' candidate from elsewhere. Money does not play a large role.

The chances of a candidate winning a pre-selection who is 'close to china' is very very low.

I could write a lot more but I really do not see the need.

ASIO is simply gilding the lilly with the aim of getting more money. China comes out of this looking very very stupid.

The Asio chief obviously did not take into account of grubs like Dutton spreading misinformation and playing politics with national security. This again shows the naivety of the man.

I should have added just imagine such candidates got in and attempted changed policy to a pro-china stance. Does anyone really believe it would be a vote winning strategy?? They would be laughed out of caucus.

Sunday, 13 February 2022

More bang for your buck on covid testing

Statschat has a very interesting article entitled community-covid-testing

Thursday, 10 February 2022

Around the Traps 11/2/22

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie

Ross Gittins on the-news-on-economy-is-better-than-were-told, interest-rate-rises-will-be-good-thing-provided-it-is-not-too-soon, aged-care-crisis-clue-well-be-paying-higher-not-lower-taxes
renew economy on nsw-swamped-by-34gw-of-wind-solar-and-storage-for-new-renewable-zone, big-batteries-score-early-gains-in-switch-to-five-minute-settlement, forrest-plans-huge-5-4gw-wind-solar-and-battery-storage-hub-in-pilbara, renewables-supplied-five-times-more-electricity-than-gas-generators-in-2021, agl-coal-closures-inch-forward-but-fall-well-short-of-market-plans-and-climate-needs
John Hawkins on how-to-camouflage-150-billion-in-government-spending-call-it-tax-expenditure
Ben Scott on getting-ready-for-trump-as-president-47
Jim Stanford on why-theres-no-magic-jobless-rate-to-increase-australians-wages
Lachlan Howell et al on morrison-government-spends-50-million-saving-koalas-while-taking-away-their-homes
Mark the Ballot on morgan-565-to-435-in-labors-favour, four-essential-polls
Institutional Economics on interest-rate-smoothing-through-two-crises
Greg Jericho on australias-4-unemployment-in-isolation-hides-whats-really-going-on-in-the-labour-market
Croaking Cassandra on inflation-2
Richard Holden on vital-signs-small-businesses-need-a-national-support-plan-to-survive-shadow-lockdowns
Tony Walker on as-the-coalition-plays-up-china-fears-ahead-of-an-election-how-might-albanese-position-himself
Jessica Collins on will-australia-use-its-amended-sanctions-act-against-myanmar
Gabrialle Kuiper on australia-what-the-energy-market-could-learn-from-an-economics-professor-and-a-moon-landing

Northern America

Erin Hurley on defining-biden
Ellen Ionnes on trump-republican-party-january-6-lies-pardon-rioters
the conversable economist on the-evolution-of-labor-force-participation-by-race
Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-merrill-milligan-alabama-brett-kavanaugh-racial-gerrymandering-voting-rights-act
open mind on omicron
noahopinion on the-us-is-failing-to-compete-effectively-with-china
John Quiggin on the-end-of-hope, summers stumbles
John Dickerson on gop-trump-redefined-presidential-behavior
Rachael Monroe on why-texass-power-grid-still-hasnt-been-fixed
Brad De Long on the-fed-has-done-an-amazing-job
Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-06-in-january
Zack Beauchamp on book-banning-crt-school-boards-republicans
the time of monsters on the-siege-of-ottawa

Europe

Dylan Mathews on vladimir-putin-ukraine-military-invasion
noahopinion on turkey-you-were-doing-so-well
stumbling and mumbling on strategic-impotence
Barkley Rosser on can-ukraine-become-new-austria
renew economy on biggest-offshore-wind-farm-lands-ground-breaking-deal-to-manage-grid-voltage
Tom McTague on russia-invade-ukraine-putin-strategy

Asia

David Letts and Donald Rothwell on navigating-limits-south-china-sea
the conversable economist on olympic-air-quality-in-china
Khang Vu on foreign-policy-cheat-sheet-south-korea-s-presidential-election

Wonk

Haroro Ingram et al on islamic-state-leader-killed-in-us-raid-where-does-this-leave-the-terrorist-group
Tim Harford on how-to-stand-up-to-your-bullying-inbox
Nick Gruen on thermonuclear-expressions
Mainly Macro on why-are-interest-rates-on-rise-in-uk-and-the-us
the conversable economist on winter-2022-journal-of-economic-perspectives-available-online, global-connectness-and-the-pandemic
Stephen Grenville on us-monetary-policy-ripple-effect

General

Luke Barnes on curious-kids-can-black-holes-become-white-holes
Trevor Ireland on what-are-asteroids-made-of-a-sample-returned-to-earth-reveals-the-solar-systems-building-blocks

Climate

Brook Williams et al on just-16-of-the-worlds-coastlines-are-in-good-shape-and-many-are-so-bad-they-can-never-fully-recover
Real Climate on future-rainfall-over-sahel-and-sahara
and Then Theres Physics on a-couple-of-highlights
moyhu on january-global-surface-templs-up-008-from-december
Peter Sinclair on concerns-about-methane-heat-up

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

a-quarter-century-of-weightlessness

Vox wonk

Wednesday, 9 February 2022

Why Morrison is in trouble

Over the last few weeks we have seen why Scott Morrison is in trouble.

Unlike the last election he is now facing hostile questions. He got quite soft questions in the last election and could fob them off by saying he had only just become PM. He now has a record to defend and Bill Shorten could tell him it is much harder to campaign when reporters are hitting you with the tough questions. than soft ones. The other thing to remember here is Morrison is poor under pressure whether it be taking angry pills or saying things which are found to be untrue.

People are now leaking against him. This makes it look like the government is an ill-disciplined rabble.

Combine this with problems of morrison's character which have exacerbated these concerns and you hsve a problem.

His political judgement is being questioned. We are know seeing quite a few government MPs taking a more 'independent' line. That they are being challenged by well funded independents is no coincidence.

I could go on but I do not need to. Things are looking grim which is to say this cannot be turned around but examples are few and far between.

Tuesday, 8 February 2022

A few points on Christian Schools

I was going to write how the RBA should be getting interest rates back to 'normal' levels but the 'furore' over 'religious discrimination' leads me away.

First let us get rid of a few furphies.

As afar as I can ascertain no pupil has ever been expelled for simply being homosxual. Indeed this was never called for in previous legislation. None should ever be. The only people who should be expelled are those who publicly parade their sexual activities and will not repent of their actions. It is immediately easy to see that this would apply more to heterosexuals than homosexuals. Given that Schools do not pry into anyone's lives we need to repeat it would apply only to those people who publicly out themselves. Remember this has never occurred in the past.

We then have the problem of transgender children. In this case children are saying God was wrong when they were born. I see no reason to expel them for this however surely the children would talk to their parents and say the Christian school they are at is not appropriate because they are rejecting God.

Can we also at this stage rid ourselves of what I call the Fitzsimmons argument. I do not believe in god and therefore heaven and hell but I am offended when you state my behaviour could send me to hell. People who do not give a toss about God are not going to attempt suicide because they are not going to heaven. They do not care.

Responsible parents would talk to their children. If their children are unhappy at the school or even reject their teaching then they should choose another school.

With regard to teachers it would be impossible for any teacher to teach at a Christian school if they do not believe only a man and woman who are married can have sex for example

One thing we can confidently predict is that all Christian schools will be doing a lot of due diligence in future both for enrolments and for employment.

I should also added it seems to me that some people are essentially saying that Christian schools cannot state what they believe in. That would be untenable.

Monday, 7 February 2022

Australia and Trump

Ben Scott from the excellent Lowy Institute write a very thoughtful essay entitled getting-ready-for-trump-as-president-47 .

Lots of things to think about

Sunday, 6 February 2022

Barnaby Joyce is over rated

Barnaby Joyce is supposedly a great retail politician. Consider this. the National party vote increased under his successor.

Joyce has continued to be an embarrassment ever since his adulatorous fling. Given his 'partner' was in PR this suggest both people's political nous is pretty poor.

Now we come to the latest embarrassment the texts that are now public. A good retail politician would have made those comments personally and made sure they could never be made public.

Joyce has always been over rated and this is yet another example of this. The ALP continually makes sure everyone knows this is the Morrison/Joyce government. Not hard to guess why they are doing this.