A comment on two libel cases

 I do not claim to have any legal expertise at all.

However two recent libel cases has left me quite satisfied. Peter V'landys lost a libel case against the ABC. I actually viewed the program on which his case was based and thought the action was a joke. He was attempting to assert A was B. It seems My thoughts were justified.

The other libel case was Christian Porter's action against the ABC.  Given I assumed the wrong person in both the program and article I again did not think Porter's case was valid at all. We can only speculate on why Porter has given up on the case but it is clear it was not a win for him at all. No compensation, no payment of costs means he got very little.

Both cases show me the law can be other than an ass sometimes.

what is going on in the USA ?

 US politics is getting very strange. HERE . We see a minority of republican voters believe in Qanon and a  majority believe that the last election was  lost by illegal voting or election rigging.

It is pretty easy to dismiss these findings as republicans voters are simply morons. However it means you miss the larger picture of republicans striving to make voting harder to do. Why have so many caved to Trump since the Insurrection. It must be because he controls the base. Simply observe what has happened to a true conservatize like Liz Cheney.

Trump besides being obese, stupid, lazy etc is a populist. A lot of his policies were left wing.  ( See Here) He is not a supporter of democracy. Populists never are usually  because they never get the largest proportion of votes.

Are the Republicans therefore heading down towards an anti-democratic  USA ? Probably. That is what suppressing the vote is all about. Are they about questioning every election now. Probably again however it appears their major aim is simply to produce a modern version of rotten boroughs.

When Trump eventually retires from US polity we shall see if this is a temporary or permanent problem. It still lays the seeds of civil unrest because people will not accept decisions by politicians whom they know are illegimate.

Around the Traps 28/5/21

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Adam Morton on scott-morrisons-claim-australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-are-falling-does-not-stack-up
• Greg Jericho on the-coalition-doesnt-want-to-focus-on-climate-change-but-australia-will-be-forced-to, australia-has-not-had-a-gas-led-recovery-not-in-jobs-not-in-tax-receipts
• Brendan Coates on the-lesson-for-australia-out-of-victorias-property-tax-hikes-two-out-of-three-aint-bad
• Deepika Mathur and Imran Muhammed on stop-removing-your-solar-panels-early-please-its-creating-a-huge-waste-problem-for-australia
• Peter Martin on great-approach-weak-execution-economists-decline-to-give-budget-top-marks
• Jennifer Hsu on Australia-china-relations-more-hurdles-ahead
• Ross Gittins on key-reform-needed-to-fix-debt-and-deficit=ditch-the-tax-cuts, big-spending-on-aged-care-not-right-to-fix-the-problem
• John Quiggin on the-budgets-thylacine-chasing-days-are-over
• Croaking Cassandra on a-questionable-budget, a-bit-more-on-fiscal-policy, a-real-interest-rates-and-b-nzers-migration, monetary-policy-2
• Christian Downie on we-could-be-a-superpower-3-ways-australia-can-take-advantage-of-the-changing-geopolitics-of-energy
• renew economy on shell-and-edify-in-landmark-big-battery-storage-deal-in-nsw, a-new-flagship-coal-plant-failed-spectacularly-but-it-wont-be-the-last-time
• Hanah Leser on paying-price-australians-want-action-climate-change
• James Ha on a-100-renewables-target-might-not-mean-what-you-think-it-means-an-energy-expert-explains
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-a-bounce-back-in-investment-holds-open-the-possibility-of-very-good-news
• Catherine Bennett on its-time-for-australia-to-drop-its-phased-approach-to-the-vaccine-rollout

Northern America

• noahopinion on time-to-temper-my-optimism, why-do-people-hate-inflation
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-april-new-home-sales
• Menzie Chinn on steel-tariffs-and-iron-steel-prices, inflation-squeeze-on-wages
• Barkley Rosser on larry-summers-doubles-down-on-his-inflation-prediction

Europe

• Tim Luckhurst on bbc-diana-cover-up-why-lord-dysons-report-is-a-body-blow-for-broadcaster
• Mainly Macro on johnson-leads-populist-government-which-should-not-be-normalised
• Yasmeen Serhan on sviatlana-tsikhanouskaya-belarus-flight-hijacking

Asia

• Anthony Billingsley on israel-and-the-palestinians-celebrate-a-ceasefire-but-will-anything-change
• Rodger Shanahan on challenge-abraham-accords
• Aymann Ismail on israel-palestine-coverage-bias-reporters
• Khang Vu on flexible-new-north-korea-policy-buzzword
• Chen Lee on asean-s-huge-gamble-myanmar
• Henry Storey on myanmar-not-next-syria
• Zack Beauchamp on Israel-palestine-two-state-solution-gaza-hamas-one
• Michaeel Beltrane on how-strong-duterte-strongman

Wonk

• Kruggers on who-was-milton-friedman Thanks Brad
• Tim Harford on why-bad-times-call-for-good-data
• noahopinion on the-future-of-war-is-bizarre-and-terrifying, status-anxiety-as-a-service
• Institutional Economics on the-super-cycle-and-julian-simon
• Chris Bertram on social-democracy-is-bound-to-struggle-in-a-world-of-nation-states

General

• Andrew Gelman on philip-roth-biographies-and-literary-biographies-in-general
• Nicholas Scott and Jesse Van De Sande on stellar-secrets-of-a-distant-galaxy-suggest-our-milky-way-isnt-so-special-after-all

Climate

• nuttin

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• thinking-fast-slow-and-not-at-all-system-3-jumps-the-shark
  
• the-revelation-came-while-hearing-a-background-music-version-of-iron-butterflys-in-a-gadda-da-vida-at-a-mr-steak-restaurant-in-colorado
  
• a-fun-activity-for-your-statistics-class-one-group-of-students-comes-up-with-a-stochastic-model-for-a-decision-process-and-simulates-fake-data-from-this-model-another-group-of-students-takes-this
  
• short-course-on-football-soccer-analytics-using-stan
  
• headline-permutations
  
• statschat on but-theyre-all-good-dogs

Econometrics

• Econometric Sense on the-value-of-business-experiments-part

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Andrew Gelman on causal-inference-the-mixtape

Vox Wonk

• technological-progress-business-model-local-news-and-nationalisation-our-politics
  
• how-high-local-public-debt-and-local-public-banks-crowd-out-private-investment
  
• vaccines-developing-countries-igm-forum-survey
  
• how-monetary-policy-affects-distribution-income
  
• memory-and-reconciliation-dangers-common-enemy-narratives
  
• gendered-laws-do-matter
  
• jump-starting-investment-strong-and-even-recovery
  
• fed-spillovers-are-stronger-and-more-encompassing-ecb-s
  
• economics-and-study-race
  
• resilience-financial-system-natural-disasters
  
• heterogeneous-impact-short-time-work
  
• why-shareholder-capitalism-benefits-wider-society
  
• new-template-european-fiscal-framework
  
• factoryless-manufacturers-and-international-trade-age-global-value-chains
  
• origin-gender-gap
  

Australia's covid problem

 We are now worrying about what mat occur in Victoria with regard to covid. We know it is the indian variant which spreads very rapidly and we know the person ion question did not take a test until about a week after he got covid.

Both the Federal and state governments did a great job of containing covid indeed it could well be the best in the world.

However two problems stand out like a shag on a rock. ( see HERE )

We have not brought enough Aussies home and that is because the quarantine faculties are inadequate. hotels are a great short term solution but not long term as we have seen. They were advised some time ago by Jane Halton what to do but as yet have done nothing.

The vaccine roll out has been abysmal. We are one of the slowest countries in the world in terms of roll out. This is bad in two ways. Victoria would be looking vastly different if most people would have had their two jabs. We cannot open up until the vast majority of people have the vaccine. That looks ages away. My own experience tells it all. I saw nothing on TV, heard nothing on the radio etc about the roll out despite being on 1B. I eventually got to know when I saw my doctor.

The government needs to get up and start doing some work and it needs a clear succinct message.

It will look very silly if say the USA and the UK open up but we cannot!

A case study of why coal fired power plants are simply no good

Coal fired power plants are like the dinosaurs a thing of the past.

They are more expensive than renewables and infinitely more unreliable. Ketan Joshi gives us a grest case study of this.

What is it with the Upper Hunter by-election

 I am struggling to understand why there are any federal implications of the upper hunter by-election. This is or was a very safe national party seat. The late George Souris used to be the member. it has been in National party and their forebears hands for at least 90 years.

It was a State by-election. We have seen in Queensland, Northern Territory, Western Australia and Tasmania  All returned their governments even though several were poor. Their handling of covid was central to that.

In normal times this by-election could and should have been lost . Our Gladys has been shown to be very low on morals. Whilst her lover was driving at 100 mph towards illegality she did nothing and said nothing. She blatantly pork barreled in the last election and then tried to hide the evidence. And how can we forget her 'forgetting' not to self-isolate after having a covid test.

There was a by-election because of sordid reasons by the previous member. We now have another  member of cabinet under investigation.

Whilst Matt Kean has delivered and is delivering a very good record on the environment particularly on new electricity which Barilo has agreed on. for some unfathomable reason no-one pulls them up for saying one thing in the city and another in the country even when it is a blatant lie. This should have been highlighted by the ALP. It wasn't.

These are not normal times and The present government's performance on covid is being rewarded.

Does it have any federal implications? I fail to see any.  It is only fodder to those who desire to see a leadership challenge in the ALP.

Monetary policy and the distribution of income

 A fascinating article from some employees in Sweden's central bank on the above topic.

Well worth a read.

Around the Traps 21/5/21

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Owain Emslie on rise-of-transport-megaprojects-adds-to-australian-taxpayers-risk-of-paying-too-much
• Hal Pawson on albaneses-10bn-pledge-pushes-housing-needs-back-into-the-limelight
• Ross Gittins on budget-shock-morrison-hit-over-head-by-a-paradigm
• renew economy on powercor-proposes-20-big-batteries-for-victoria-renewable-energy-zones, western-australia-eyes-massive-100gw-of-wind-and-solar-for-green-hydrogen-by-2030, origin-to-close-first-unit-of-australias-biggest-coal-generator-in-2030, taylor-commits-600m-to-kurri-kurri-gas-in-fossil-fuel-spending-spree, crony-capitalism-morrisons-gas-spending-masks-a-deeper-coal-addiction
• Greg Jericho on australia-is-unlikely-to-ever-go-back-to-pre-gfc-interest-rates-we-cant-afford-to, australias-latest-wage-figures-seem-promising-but-only-if-you-dont-look-too-closely
• Alison O'Donnell et al on we-found-a-secret-history-of-megadroughts-written-in-tree-rings-the-wheatbelts-future-may-be-drier-than-we-think
• Croaking Cassandra on at-least-60-per-cent, much-better-analysis-needed
• Abul Rizvi on new-immigration-minister-trashes-australias-international-education-industry
• Adam Morton on household-solar-uptake-meant-demand-on-australias-grid-in-summer-peak-fell-to-five-year-low
• Catherine Bennett on it-may-not-be-possible-to-bring-all-australians-with-covid-home-from-india-but-we-can-do-better-than-we-are-now
• Peter Martin on the-gfc-provided-the-secret-sauce-we-used-to-ward-off-the-covid-recession
• Sam Roggeveen on australia-migration-will-covid-pause-become-full-stop
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-another-budget-rates-well
• Arjuna Dibley on government-owned-firms-like-snowy-hydro-can-do-better-than-building-600-million-gas-plants
• Samantha Hepburn on new-international-energy-agency-report-reprimands-any-new-fossil-fuel-development-guess-what-australia-did-next
• Donald Rothwell on when-border-control-goes-over-line
• Phillip Zylstra et al on native-forest-logging-makes-bushfires-worse-and-to-say-otherwise-ignores-the-facts
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-wages-growth-desultory-unemployment-stunning
• Tom Crowley and Danielle Wood on like-a-high-wire-act-victorias-budget-is-a-mix-of-hard-work-luck-and-optical-illusion
• Robert Davis et al on mouse-plague-bromadialone-will-obliterate-mice-but-itll-poison-eagles-snakes-and-owls-too
• Tony Wood on gas-misfire-the-federal-governments-600m-intervention-in-the-energy-market
• Institutional Economics on malcolm-edeys-general-taboo

Northern America

• Brad De Long  on american-rescue-plan-inflation-critics-fear-monetary-policy-normalcy
• Steve Mathews on fed-leaders-are-confident-inflation-is-transitory-here-s-why Thanks Brad
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-april-housing-starts
• Jim Newell on republicans-undermine-january-6-bipartisan-commission-deal
• Michael Kazin on ending-the-kennedy-romance
• noahopinion on when-to-worry-about-inflation

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on markets-the-right, starmer-skill-and-luck
• Mainly Macro on is-indian-variant-inevitable-result-of-living-with-covid

Asia

• Anthony Billingsley on with-diplomacy-all-but-abandoned-israel-and-the-palestinians-are-teetering-on-another-war
• Tony Walker on many-questions-few-answers-as-conflict-deepens-between-israelis-and-palestinians
• Barkley Rosser on the-public-reappearance-of-israeli-palestinian-conflict
• Elliot Zaagman on rare-test-china-diplomacy
• Daniel Woker on london-and-hong-kong-financial-centres-parallel-peril
• Anabelle Lukin on when-it-comes-to-media-reporting-on-israel-palestine-there-is-nowhere-to-hide
• Shadi Hamid on israel-palestine-gaza-hamas-history
• David Remnick on no-safe-place-in-gaza
• Malcolm Cook on duterte-defier

Wonk

• noahopinion on masks-after-the-pandemic, yes-lockdowns-were-good
• Amy Maguire on why-is-accountability-for-alleged-war-crimes-so-hard-to-achieve-in-the-israel-palestinian-conflict
• the conversable economist on taxation-tales-and-window-tax
• Thomas the think engine on oblivion-did-we-really-forget-the-spanish-flu
• Tyler Cowen on do-higher-minimum-wages-induce-more-job-search

General

• Tim Harford on an-economists-tips-on-making-email-work-for-you
• Jamie Roberts on guide-to-the-classics-shakespeares-sonnets-an-honest-account-of-love-and-a-surprising-portal-to-the-man-himself

Climate

• Real Climate on why-is-future-sea-level-rise-still-so-uncertain/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=why-is-future-sea-level-rise-still-so-uncertain
• Moyhu on giss-april-global-temperature-down-from-april
• and Then Theres Physics on the-last-glacial-maximum
• Eric Kramer on equi-realism-about-carbon-pricing-and-other-approaches-to-global-warming-favors-a-failsafe-approach-to-regulation
• the conversable economist on nitrous-oxide-agriculture-and-climate-change

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• life-is-long
  
• feeling-like-a-pariah-even-when-youre-not
  
• another estimate of excess deaths during the pandemic
• new-book-coming-out-by-fischer-black
  
• 2020-what-happened
  
• the-insider-outsider-perspective-jim-bouton-example
  
• Kaiser Fung on science-by-press-release-should-be-discouraged

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• the-cost-of-malignant-obedience
  
• Andrew Gelman on jordan-ellenbergs-new-book-shape

Vox Wonk

• gender-role-norms-and-mothers-labour-supply
  
• government-effective-venture-capitalist
  
• free-trade-agreements-do-not-always-ensure-free-trade
  
• brexit-deterred-international-students-applying-uk-universities
  
• human-capital-working-time-flexibility-and-discrimination-gender-wage-gap
  
• default-expectations-and-currency-movements
  
• global-sanctions-data-base-mapping-international-sanction-policies-1950-2019
  
• why-global-uncertainty-declining
  
• global-sanctions-data-base-mapping-international-sanction-policies-1950-2019
  
• eu-fiscal-policies-2020
  
• ghost-smoot-hawley-tells-why-america-isn-t-too-big-avoid-retaliation
  
• how-improve-tax-compliance
  
• slowdown-business-dynamics-during-covid-pandemic
  
• public-debt-and-economic-recovery
  

Poll update.

 Kevin Bonham on the latest federal polling.

Government spends money on a white elephant.

 The Federal Government is going to spend money on a gas fired power station.

See HERE and HERE and HERE

It is clearly not needed.  AGL made this clear in their press statement when they announced they would close Liddell.  AEMO has little concern over supply post Liddell. Moreover it is assumed the station will not be used much anyway and have to use diesel in its early stages which makes it both expensive and bad for emissions.

If the market had failed the government would have a fair case but it hasn't. Over time the power station will be rarely used. It will be an expensive white elephant.

the future for London and Hong Kong

 Daniel Woker from the ever excellent Lowy Institute writes a great article on the future of London and Hong Kong.

The Jewish/ Palestinian conflict

 All hell has broken out in Israel/ Palestine.

See HERE, HERE and HERE.

A few points.

I do find it rather ironic Israel refers to Hamas as  terrorists. Terrorisms is how Israel was created. Two former Prime minister were former terrorists who never repented of the murders they participated in. 

We can be very fortunate that the present islamic terrorists have not killed as many of their jewish terrorists did in the late 1940s.  There has been a huge rewriting of history.

This all started when Palestinians in Jerusalem were being forced out of their houses by jews.  This was sinful conduct and showed the jews had never read their bibles patricianly amos and micah!

Hamas fired rockets ( please do not call them missiles. Hams cannot direct them) and Israel replied as they always do in a way that was way more than was proportionate. The bombing of the building holding two news organizations was particularly reprehensible because as yet not a shred of evidence has been produced.

Both sides should refrain from further action but will not because neither recognize the humanity of the other. It is much easier to murder people when this is the case.

Apologies

 For some reason I have no idea about Around the Traps this week has been deleted by google.

I am hoping this is a once-off affair.

It is google has admitted to making a mistake

Around the Traps 14/5/21

It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• James Laurenson on china-retaliates-suspending-its-strategic-economic-dialogue-with-australia-is-symbolic-but-still-a-big-deal
• Richard Holden on the-rba-wants-to-cut-unemployment-and-nothing-not-even-soaring-home-prices-will-stand-in-its-way
• Ross Gittins on years-of-neglect-wont-make-it-easy-to-get-wages-up, this-budget-couldabeen-lot-better-than-it-is
• renew economy on state-policy-will-keep-electricity-market-prices-low-but-headwinds-grow-for-gas, hydrogens-false-promise-could-hamper-climate-progress-lock-in-fossil-fuels, taylors-kurri-kurri-gas-plant-to-run-on-dirty-diesel-first
• David Bowman on new-research-finds-native-forest-logging-did-not-worsen-the-black-summer-bushfires
• Natasha Kassam on fortress-australia-what-are-the-costs-of-closing-ourselves-off-to-the-world
• renew economy on aemo-says-australia-well-ahead-of-90-per-cent-renewables-scenario-for-2040, batteries-not-included-coalitions-stunning-hatred-of-new-technology, 
• Richard Holden on budget-2021-the-floppy-v-shaped-recovery
• Peter Martin on frydenberg-spends-the-budget-bounty-to-drive-unemployment-down-to-new-lows
• Danielle Wood and Tom Crowley on less-hard-hats-more-soft-hearts-budget-pivots-to-women-and-care
• Catherine Bennet on should-we-vaccinate-all-returned-travellers-in-hotel-quarantine-its-no-magic-fix-but-it-could-reduce-risks
• Croaking Cassandra on productivity-growth-failures-and-successes
• Institutional Economics on the-very-timely-death-of-the-politics-of-debt-and deficits
• Raina McIntyre on the-pressure-is-on-for-australia-to-accept-the-coronavirus-really-can-spread-in-the-air-we-breathe
• michele Grattan on is-that-the-coalition-debt-truck-parked-just-past-the-election

Northern America

• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-voting-rights-florida-georgia-ron-desantis-john-roberts-suppression-crawford-shelby
• Dean Baker on the-fighting-isnt-over-review-of-the-ten-year-war-by-jonathan-cohn thanks Brad
• Micah Cohen et al on what-floridas-new-voting-law-signifies-about-the-gops-larger-motivations
• lawyers guns money on the-significance-of-the-liz-cheney-auto-da-fe
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-inflation-increased-in-april
• Zack Beauchamp on liz-cheney-trump-republicans-democracy-2024
• clint smith on confederate-lost-cause-myth
• John Quiggin on my-comprehensive-plan-for-us-policy-on-the-middle-east-3
• new deal democrat on we-all-expected-inflation-to-arrive-now-its-here

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on on-centrist-vacuousness, class
• Mainly Macro on some-lessons-in-how-to-combat-tory-propaganda-machine

Asia

• Shannon McGarry and Rodger Shanahan on royal-rifts-implications-jordan-s-family-feud
• Dirk Van Der Kley on bri-increasingly-focused-benefits-locals
• John West on china-s-innovation-dilemma
• Khang Vu on biden-s-north-korea-review-diplomatic-victory-moon-jae
• Alex Ward on israel-palestine-jerusalem-mosque-violence-biden
• Julia Bergin on how-china-used-the-media-to-spread-its-covid-narrative-and-win-friends-around-the-world
• Tristan Dunning and Martin Kear on israel-palestinian-violence-why-east-jerusalem-has-become-a-flashpoint-in-a-decades-old-conflict
• Lesley Branagan on india-s-covid-19-danger-spreading-south
• Atul Dev on modis-folly
• Nitasha Kaul on covid-in-india-a-tragedy-with-its-roots-in-narendra-modis-leadership-style
• Andrew Selth on myanmar-and-new-kind-civil-war
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-gaza-war-2021-hamas-sheikh-jarrah

Wonk

• Tim Harford on what-does-covid-teach-us-about-climate-change
• Jennifer Juno and Adam Wheatley on mounting-evidence-suggests-covid-vaccines-do-reduce-transmission-how-does-this-work
• Angela Lehman on closed-borders-unequal-waiting-game
• the conversable economist on the-slow-magic-from-agricultural-r&d, political-economy-of-pandemic-response
• menzie chinn on guest-contribution-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-global-industrial-production
• coppolla comment on calculus-for-economists
• Ian Hill on russia-china-unholy-alliance
• noahopinion on the-darkness

General

• David Farmer on curious-kids-why-does-the-suns-bright-light-make-me-sneeze
• Knox Peden on guide-to-the-classics-montesquieus-persian-letters-at-300-an-enlightenment-story-that-resonates-in-a-time-of-culture-wars

Climate

• Christopher Cornwall and Verena Schoepf on the-outlook-for-coral-reefs-remains-grim-unless-we-cut-emissions-fast-new-research
• Ed Hawkins on warming-patterns
• skeptical Science on overshooting 2C risks rapid and unstoppable sea level rise from Antarctica

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• doubting-the-ihme-claims-about-excess-deaths-by-country
  
• https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/05/10the-javert-paradox-rears-its-ugly-head
  
• frank-sinatra-3-vs-virginia-apgar-julia-child-advances-2
  
• if-a-value-is-less-than-10-you-can-bet-its-not-0-1-usually
  
• 2-reasons-why-the-cdc-and-who-were-getting-things-wrong-1-it-takes-so-much-more-evidence-to-correct-a-mistaken-claim-than-to-establish-it-in-the-first-place-2-the-implicit-goal-of-much-of-the-
  
• we-use-mrp-to-estimate-excess-mortality-rate
  
• when-are-bayesian-model-probabilities-overconfident
  
• what-did-ml-researchers-talk-about-in-their-broader-impacts-statements
  
• tableau-and-the-grammar-of-graphics
  
• plan-for-the-creation-of-a-network-of-new-scientific-institutes-pursuing-basic-research-while-not-being-dependent-on-universities-the-nih-and-the-rest-of-traditional-academia-and-importantly-not
  
• Kaiser Fung on nothing-is-perfect-especially-in-statistics , science-in-the-age-of-covid-19-part-1, science-in-the-age-of-covid-19-part-2

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on insurance against catastrophes

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• extending-the-frontier
  

vox wonk

• us-inflation-set-take-off
  
• opening-military-innovation
  
• school-closures-did-not-contribute-spread-coronavirus-germany
  
• high-speed-rail-may-hurt-intermediate-places
  
• corruption-under-austerity
  
• special-issue-economic-policy-stereotypes-attitudes-and-discrimination
  
• independent-ireland-centennial-perspective
  
• central-bank-communication-remember-who-s-talking
  
• social-and-economic-costs-covid-19
  
• central-banks-shifting-world-takeaways-ecb-s-sintra-forum
  
• cooperation-among-people-different-cognitive-skill-levels
  
• gender-role-norms-and-mothers-labour-supply
  

the Republican party is officially the party for wingnuts

 Liz Cheney was replaced from he position of number three in the House of Representatives.

See:

HERE

HERE

HERE

Now if you examine facts this decision is inexplicable. Her record of voting as a conservative is vastly superior to the person who succeeded her. She also supported Trump as President in her voting record more than her successor.

So why was she shafted?  Easy peezy. She declared it was a great lie to say the election was stolen. She upheld that decision. She also believed Trump was responsible for the insurrection.

Unbelievable!

does belt and road provide local benefits

 Sorry not interested in commenting on the budget.

THIS paper from the wonderful Lowy Institute  examines the above question.  

how should the ALP respond to the budget

 I think it should be simple.

Remind people they have not changed in policy making. since the coalition has they must have been wrong about their criticisms of the ALP's response to the GFC.

Criticise some policies on the margin but just leave it at that. You are being consistent. They are not.

Short, simple and concise but effective.

What occurred in the UK?

 There were council election, a by-election and elections in Scotland.

Labour lost a previously safe seat. This seems inexplicable. They now have a very capable centrist leader who is clearly superior to Boris Johnson whether in Parliament or in public. .They are rejecting corbynism every day yet there is not a swing towards them.

I have read little and only heard a few people talk about the results but I will endeavour to sum up

• The public is still affected by the Corbyn hangover
• the public thinks nothing has changed since Starmer took over the leadership
• the public thinks the Labour party is against brexit
• the public know Johnson is corrupt and don't care
• the public will not admit that brexit will be bad for the economy
• the public had put more emphasis on the vaccine rollout than handling covid

Please note without saying it many of these reasons assume the public are idiots although I have yet to hear any evidence for the above assertions.

Very curious and Keir Starmer must be tearing his hair out over the results.

Around the Traps 7/5/21

 it is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michael Lester on liberals-victory-in-tasmanian-election-is-more-status-quo-than-ringing-endorsement
• Ken Noble and Peter Hurley on an-extra-1-7-billion-for-child-care-will-help-some-it-wont-improve-affordability-for-most
• Greg Jericho on may/04/after-the-sharp-recession-there-is-little-sense-of-a-booming-recovery, the-latest-data-reveals-just-how-insane-the-australian-housing-market-has-become
• Danielle Wood et al on the-coalitions-child-care-subsidy-plan-how-it-works-and-what-it-means-for-families-and-the-economy
• Daniel Cass et al on paying-australias-coal-fired-power-stations-to-stay-open-longer-is-bad-for-consumers-and-the-planet
• renew economy on running-the-numbers-on-victorias-climate-plan-the-leader-in-state-climate-action, amp-makes-massive-south-australia-solar-battery-green-hydrogen-play, hydrogen-will-be-cover-for-a-new-life-for-fossil-fuels, the-gas-war-is-heating-up-and-its-only-just-getting-started, keith-pitt-vetoes-federal-funding-deal-for-wind-and-battery-hub-in-queensland
• Croaking Cassandra on fearful-or-values-free, lacking-in-serious-analysis-not-well-grounded-in-law, banks-housing-lending-and-fixing-housing
• Sangeetha Pillai on is-australias-india-travel-ban-legal-a-citizenship-law-expert-explains
• Peter Martin on the-budget-is-a-window-into-the-treasurers-soul-heres-what-to-look-for-tuesday-night
• Tim Nelson and Joel Gilmore on australias-states-are-forging-ahead-with-ambitious-emissions-reductions-imagine-if-they-worked-together
• Ross Gittins on politics-and-economics-have-aligned, our-closed-borders-have-turbo-charged
• Kevin Bonham on almost-everything-in-west-medias-video-is-wrong
• Institutional Economics on treasury-revisits-the-nairu
• Martein Lubberink on why-now-would-be-a-good-time-for-the-reserve-bank-to-publish-stress-test-results-for-individual-banks
• John Quiggin on adani-and-the-grief-to-income-ratio-from-my-newsletter

Northern America

• noahopinion on the-deep-economic-theory-of-bidenomics, wokeness-as-old-time-american-religion
• Brad De Long on is-%C3%BEe-us-economy-recovering-or-overheating
• Helen Lewis on facebook-oversight-board-trump-problem
• the conversable economist on the-great-texas-power-failure-of-february-2021
• Andrew Prokop on liz-cheney-trump-big-lie

Europe

• Sam Power on boris-johnsons-downing-street-refurbishment-might-a-law-have-been-broken

Asia

• Stephen Minas on china-s-climate-pivot-could-reshape-economic-future
• Aarti Bettigeri on india-smoke-mirrors
• noahopinion on contemporary-china-vs-imperial-japan
• John Blaxland on china-does-not-want-war-at-least-not-yet-its-playing-the-long-game
• Barak Ravid on netanyahu-fails-to-form-government-mandate
• Zack Beauchamp on india-west-bengal-results-2021-bjp-modi-tmc-banerjee
• the conversable economist on chinas-population-coming-decline
• Geoffrey Robertson on north-korea-expertise-all-talk
• Mubashar Hasan on authoritarians-seek-advantage-india-s-covid-crisis
• Angelo Trias and Alastair Cook on post-covid-disaster-governance-southeast-asia

Wonk

• Uma Kamhampati on india-covid-crisis-four-reasons-it-will-derail-the-world-economy
• Katie Peek on flu-has-disappeared-worldwide-during-the-covid-pandemic Thanks Brad
• Tim Harford on covid-has-been-a-catastrophe-might-it-also-be-an-opportunity
• noahopinion on is-the-labor-theory-of-value-useful
• the conversable economist on spring-2021-journal-of-economic-perspectivess
• Mainly Macro on how-most-of-west-got-pandemic-so-badly-wrong
• Jessica Green on can-the-worlds-bankers-really-save-the-climate
• Adam Tooze on shutdown thanks Brad De Long
• Kevin Kwok on populism Thanks Brad De Long

General

• Joanna Mendelsson on if-i-could-go-anywhere-florences-san-marco-museum-where-mystical-faith-and-classical-knowledge-meet
• Hugh Breakey on 3-ways-philosophy-can-help-us-understand-love

Climate

• Bill Hare et al on the-1-5-global-warming-limit-is-not-impossible-but-without-political-action-it-soon-will-be
• and Then Theres Physics on halting-the-vast-release-of-methane-is-critical
• Zeke Hausfather on why-the-sun-is-not-responsible-for-recent-climate-change thanks Brad
• moyhu on cmip6-comparing-tos-with-observed-sst, april-global-surface-templs-down-0165-from-march
• Ed Hawkins on arctic-surprise
• Peter Sinclair on dueling-studies-show-antarctic-uncertainty

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• statistical-modeling-causal-inference-and-social-science-gets-results
  
• thoughts-inspired-by-the-gospel-of-jesuss-wife
  
• responding-to-richard-morey-on-p-values-and-inference
  
• whatever-youre-looking-for-its-somewhere-in-the-stan-documentation-and-you-can-just-google-for-i
  
• whassup-with-the-weird-state-borders-on-this-vaccine-hesitancy-map
  
• indeed-the-standard-way-that-statistical-hypothesis-testing-is-taught-is-a-2-way-binary-grid-both-these-dichotomies-are-inappropriate
  
• size-of-bubbles-in-a-bubble-chart
  
• postmodernism-for-zillionaires
  
• any-graph-should-contain-the-seeds-of-its-own-destruction
  
• raymond-smullyan-on-ted-cruz-al-sharpton-and-those-scary-congressmembers
  
• formalizing-questions-about-feedback-loops-from-model-predictions
  
• Kaiser Fung on curve-watching-during-the-pandemic
• statschat on mind-if-we-call-you-bruce

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• getting-to-fair
  
• finance-and-the-world
  

Vox Wonk

• bank-runs-and-central-bank-digital-currency
  
• how-management-practices-boosted-firm-performance-during-covid-19
  
• panopticon-germany-s-foreign-trade-new-facts-first-globalisation-1880-1913
  
• reversal-interest-rate-new-motive-countercyclical-macroprudential-policy
  
• what-three-economists-taught-us-about-currency-arrangements
  
• tackling-climate-change-requires-global-policies
  
• pathways-productivity-and-growth-after-covid-19-crisis
  
• conflict-between-cbdc-goals-and-design-choices
  
• how-ceo-pay-packages-should-be-designed
  
• location-top-doctorate-programmes-evidence-young-economist-awards
  
• changing-specialisation-cope-climate-change
  
• how-ceo-pay-packages-should-be-designed
  
• why-rich-parents-have-rich-children
  
• janus-face-europe-s-new-social-rulebook
  
• modern-infectious-diseases-macroeconomic-impacts-and-policy-responses
  
• pricing-carbon-within-and-border-europe
  

Is the RBA doing their job?

 The RBA yesterday said it was looking to see a rise in both wage and consumer price inflation before it raises rates.

However it does appear the current low interest rate regime is only encouraging large rises in asset prices or in this case housing prices. See HERE for example.

Hence inequality is exacerbated. My house is now worth a hellva lot more than we bought it for however it is much harder for my two sons to get into the housing market let alone buy anything.

Time to think again I think

Is Michael Slater right?

 Michael Slater was a useful attacking batsman and now is a competent cricket commentator. (only competent).

He has given Scott Morrison a verbal thrashing. He wants to come back from India where he was commentating on the IPL ( a very boring ofshoot of cricket) He went over there BEFORE the latest covid outbreak.

His criticism is twofold.

1. Australia has a poor quarantine system if people cannot come home from India. This is undoubtedly true. Morrison has been caught out by saying quarantine is working well but at the very same time saying it will have problems if too many people from India come home with covid.
2. Morrison will have blood on his hands if an Australian dies form covid in India. very hard to argue with this. Morrison is essentially saying for the time being you are on your own.

A few more things. Is this LAWFUL? Secondly we are the ONLY country to deny their own citizens entry to their own country. 

Sky News

 Whilst i was resting from my heart attack I thought I would look at Sky news courtesy of WIN. Now i have to be honest I only did it during commercial breaks and even then it was too long. Well what did I find.

First the sensible Sky news. Kieren Gilbert does afternoons as David Speers used to. He puts his heart into it however he is no David Speers. why? he has no personality nor can ask penetrating questions.

Sky after dark is an embarrassment. All the presenters are highly biased and do not even attempt to get anther point or opposing point of view on the air. Peta Credlin is on far too early for me. Alan jones has a good head for radio . although very eloquent is simply not intelligent.  Matt Canavan and mark Latham are always interviewed. Paul Murray who went to the same high school as my sons is simply terrible. One night he went through three commercial breaks ( 25 minutes) and was still talking to the screen.  One night he railed against the ABC for producing an anti-Christian survey. ( they had not if he had read the article properly.) Then he got Graham Richardson and Michael Kroger to talk on how anti Christian the ABC were. Three  less likely people top uphold Christianity you could not find. That all three got everything wrong about the article ( it was actually pro-Christian) says it all. 

I do not understand how anyone can watch a talking head on TV. Remember that talking goes on for sometime. agggh

Tasmanian election

 The result was not unexpected but poor anyway. My rule of never voting for a government who has two terms has been broken again. i might note few have performed in their third term.

The Lib leader was surprisingly unimpressive both in the campaign and in the 'debate'. It appears the ALP suffered a reversal in their poor vote from the last election. since I do not live there I have not a clue for the reasons for this.

Not much to see me thinks